Resumption in the first half of 2021: If you are unwilling to hold tickets for more than one year, don't buy them
In the first half of the year, A-share account made a profit of 4% and Tiger account made a profit of 11.5%. The profit results are in line with expectations. A-share consumption has been consolidating at a high level, and the stock price of China National Free Trade Co., Ltd. has fallen back after surging. China National Free Trade Co., Ltd. has not performed well, and only US stocks are still bullish.
I've been holding the chip upstream faucet$Asme (ASML) $Benefiting from the competition of chip manufacturing in various countries, Q1's revenue increased by 79% in 21 years, and its net profit increased by 240% year-on-year. In the first half of this year, its stock price rose by 38%. And$TSMC (TSM) $Revenue rose 16%, profit rose 19%, and share prices rose 10% in the first half of the year. Rumors that Intel chip foundry was handed over to TSMC last year have long since vanished. Now China, the United States, South Korea and Japan are all making efforts to build fabs. TSMC has always believed that China's chip production is five years behind; The salary of American engineers is too high, and the chip price is not competitive; TSMC's biggest competitor is Samsung. Let's wait and see the end of chip foundry production. The growth rate of leading earnings of US stocks can fully support the increase of stock prices. The stock price is relatively real! ! !
The biggest highlight of the domestic economy in the first half of the year is the rapid growth of exports, but the consumption has been sluggish. In addition to the weak growth of consumption, the overvaluation of consumer stocks also discouraged investors, and the overall sector has been consolidating. My exemption has been in the process of adjustment, and only a few consumer sectors with high growth, such as medical beauty and ai service robots (sweeping robots), are sought after by funds. Medical beauty, I think the risk is relatively high. The leading enterprises in this sector can't block the newcomers in the field. Huadong Medicine, etc., also enter this track by acting for overseas botulinum toxin and hyaluronic acid products. It is difficult to predict which company is the last survivor. It's good for China to consolidate, and the risk is lower. On February 10th, the last day of exchange years ago, it reached a market value of 750 billion yuan, which is my reasonable market value in 2022. If it goes up again, it will stop the profit. As an individual investor, I don't want my stock to be too hot. It's best to rise slowly every year. The longer I take it, the more I can earn.
This time, the account transactions were resumed one by one. In the first half of the year, a total of 32 tickets were traded, but in fact, most of the profits were contributed by Asma, TSMC and Meituan. But the trading volume data scares me to death[Cover your face]! ! ! Buy and sell transaction amount: The ending account amount = 7, which is equivalent to buying and selling all my positions 3-4 times. Then, I looked at 2.4 times in the first half of 2020 and 3.2 times in the second half of 2020. It turns out that it has always been so high-frequency trading[Tears][Tears].
Hong Kong stocks traded 16 targets, including 9 profits (2 holding), 6 losses and 1 open position. It seems to be good, but in fact, excluding three new positions, and then excluding three long-term positions of Meituan, Tencent and Shenhua H, the band operation of the remaining 10 tickets achieved a profit and loss of-68, 500 Hong Kong dollars, and most of the profits of Hong Kong stocks in the first half of the year came from Meituan, which stopped the profit.
US stocks traded 10 targets, with 6 profits (2 holding), 2 losses and 2 open positions. Among the 10 targets, 4 long-term positions contributed most of the realized profits and losses. The remaining six targets achieved a profit and loss of 13,000 US dollars. The most regrettable thing is that I sold my ideal car and Ruixing.
A shares have 6 targets, 2 profits, 1 loss and 3 open positions. Three liquidation targets achieved a profit and loss of 12,000 US dollars.
These 32 tickets, Asma, TSMC, Meituan, Tencent, China Free, BYD and Simore, are tickets held or traded in 2020, and the remaining 25 are newly opened this year[Sad][Sad]. In the second half of the year, I will force the number of new positions opened/closed within 10 times, and COSCO Haikong, which closed positions on July 5, will be the first.
If you don't want to hold tickets for more than one year, don't sell them.
Before, I had a habit that interested companies would operate a band if they didn't dare to take it for 3 years. At that time, I liked to hold a target of interest in small positions first, and then study it more critically, worrying about its various bad things. In order to quickly get a comprehensive perspective and position feeling. However, in the process of holding ideals and Ruixing in the first half of the year, if there is no clear "anchor" for the company's value, it cannot be held for a long time. Because I have a shallow understanding of the business and the company, there are many doubts in my heart that have not been answered. In this psychological state, the position is up to 5%. Every day after buying and falling is very painful; I want to throw it away every day after rising by 15%. This ticket, even though it has doubled in the short term, has limited help to the total assets of the account, but it has suffered great psychological pressure. Give and get, not proportional. Therefore, I added a new item to the checklist of investment models, if you don't want to hold it for more than one year, don't buy it. If I am not optimistic about the company for a long time and unwilling to accompany the company to grow, then don't buy it in the first place and don't spend time on short-term transactions.
The biggest risk is the black swan of the enterprise, not the market risk. Market risks can be borne. However, even if there is a 1% chance, the enterprise black swan should avoid it. 【小于】 /stronG >
The impact of Didi incident on China Stock Price is market risk, which I generally choose to bear. This is a retracement of funds made by overseas funds who can't see the domestic regulatory standards clearly. Why do you say "seize the opportunity"? If there is no expectation of tightening by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year, I don't think the blow in this wave will be so big. Every time the Fed tightens, the stock markets of overseas new economy countries are often hit harder than those in the United States. It's easy to understand when you think about it. When there are risks, everyone takes the assets they know best and have the strongest certainty. Compared with American domestic companies, China's market, the new economy is always more distant and unpredictable. In addition, I think that with the consistent "paternalistic" management of domestic supervision, the Chinese companies are more tolerant than harsh, and the heart of loving calves is heavier. In recent years, the targets of severe strikes generally involve the overall economic risks and the stability of people's livelihood. Overseas countries often demonize the domestic regulatory environment, but as domestic investors, we actually know more about domestic policies.
Pay attention to the demands and interests of major shareholders of the company, and find major shareholders who are consistent with the interests of investors.
Current short position is 25%.
A shares & Hong Kong stocks: China China Free 16%, Tencent 7%, Shaanxi Coal 12%, Shenhua 3%;
US stocks: Asma 17%, TSMC 5%, Apple 5%, Good Future 4.8%
Observation warehouse: WuXi Kant, Chinese ship.
The resumption of 36 targets is too long, so I only list the trading thoughts of 6 targets, namely Meituan, Tencent, Meilan Airport, Ruixing, China Shipbuilding and COSCO Haikong. There are risks in stock trading. The following are my personal thoughts, which are not recommended.
1. Meituan 03690: Close positions on January 22, February 22, March 3 and sell the last 600 shares on June 15. Reason for selling: After the liquidity contracted, the valuation dropped, the community group purchase burned too much money, and the business was too uncertain. Under the pressure of liquidity contraction, uncertain bubbles are the first to be hit.
2. Tencent 00700: Since the end of the 20th century, positions have been opened one after another at RMB 565, and all positions have been completed on March 9th. 26% of the positions were once my second largest position. Buy at first$Tencent Holdings (00700) $Based on two fundamentals: WeChat, the main business, has a strong moat, and the game has resumed stable and high-quality growth. Although the domestic mobile traffic peaked and the number of WeChat users peaked, the ever-increasing user duration of WeChat completely touched me, and the data of "financial and enterprise services", the baton of Tencent's revenue growth, was very beautiful. Visible in detail"WeChat has a limited population, but people's desires are unlimited."
Ideal is full, but reality is skinny. On May 20th, Tencent Q1's financial report fell short of expectations, and the growth rate of game revenue slowed down. Tencent's share price has been hovering around 600. Recently, due to the influence of the didi incident, large funds are worried about China's domestic regulatory policies, and China's collective correction. Tencent's share price has retreated by 32% from the highest point of 773 yuan this year. On May 31st, I deducted 60% of Tencent's position to escape the second wave of sharp drop. This reduction of positions is due to the fundamental concerns of Tencent Games.
As for when Tencent will increase its position, I plan to increase its position on a large scale and continue to wait for Q2 financial report in mid-August, which is still the previous view that "if Q2 game revenue continues to grow by 10% +, the tight monetary policy in the United States will make the stock price undergo another stress test. Tencent should not be in a hurry to increase its position, and continue to wait for the reaction of the long-term fund after the Q2 financial report was announced in mid-August."
Tencent's purchase price, I currently set 2 prices. The first purchase price considers the value of investment assets, and the second purchase price excludes the value of investment assets. Assets without cash flow are assets without "productivity". Assuming that Q2 deducted non-net profit increased by 20%, 36.1 billion RMB, and deducted non-net profit of 165 billion RMB in the last four quarters. According to the profit growth rate of 20%, 25 times pe will be given.
The first purchase price: 25 times * non-net profit deducted in the last four quarters +700 billion Hong Kong dollars investment assets = 5.6 trillion Hong Kong dollars = 589 Hong Kong dollars stock price;
The second purchase price (excluding investment equity): 25 times * deducting non-net profit in the last four quarters = HK $4.9 trillion = HK $516 share price;
3. Meilan Airport 00357: The reason for buying is optimistic about the development of Hainan Free Trade Zone. The passenger throughput of Haikou Meilan Airport is higher than that of Sanya Phoenix Airport, and the logistics strategic position is also higher. Hainan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is clarifying the relationship between Meilan Airport and major shareholder HNA. Buy on June 15th and sell on June 29th. Reason for selling: The airport is obviously a high-quality asset, ranking top17 in China according to the airport throughput in Meilan in 2019. However, compared with boarding the airport, Meilan Airport's balance sheet is very ugly, and the construction of the second phase of the airport took five years. Meilan Airport has several financing disputes with CITIC Bank and Pacific Insurance (Hong Kong), and there are also five bond defaults (see Kaixinbao "Haikou Meilan International Airport Co., Ltd." for details). Phoenix Airport and Meilan Airport, which are owned by HNA, have similar problems, and Phoenix Airport has more serious problems. It takes a long time to clarify the relationship between major shareholders, which seriously affects the development speed of the company. It is based on this transaction that I began to pay attention to the situation of major shareholders of listed companies.
4. LKCY Ruixing Powder Sheet: The reason for buying coffee is that people in first-tier cities develop coffee consumption habits, and they are optimistic about Chinese local brands from the development of Japanese chain cafes. Ruixing's productsR&D and innovation are good. There are several explosive products this year. It is speculated that the data in 20 years and the first half of 21 years are better. The position was opened on August 92 on June 9, reduced on June 11 and closed on June 16. Perfect miss 1 double share. If you don't calculate the true value, you can't bear it.
5. China Ship 600150: Buy and hold on June 8th. Reason for buying: In Q1 2021, the prepayment in the balance sheet increased by 81% month-on-month, and the inventory increased by 222%. At the bottom of the industry cycle, can this round of shipping price increase usher in a rise in profits, and the cost of steel is also rising. Can the increase in income bring about an increase in profits? At present, there is no conclusion. Continue to observe the semi-annual report.
6. COSCO Haikong 601919: Buying reason: The international shipping freight rate is extremely high, and the profit will be greatly improved in 2021. The position was opened on June 11th, increased on June 28th and closed on July 5th. Reason for selling: King of shipping cycle, 1 times pb to buy, 5 times pe to sell at peak business. In addition, the market value of COSCO Haikong is not underestimated against Maersk. Those holders, according to Maersk's long-term agreement in 2022, continue to be optimistic about the price of international shipping in the last one and a half years. It is believed that the international shipping price will be controlled by the three major alliances in 2022, which will enable the company to maintain a good profit margin.
Disclaimer: The above content represents only the personal views of the poster and does not constitute investment advice on this platform.