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偷鱼的夜鹭
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偷鱼的夜鹭
偷鱼的夜鹭
·
07-18 07:11
这个华尔街贱闻怎么不聊聊大A股?大A股昨天可以跌去了自25年8月以来所有涨幅。
美股半导体指数跌入熊市,芯片股溃败时苹果盘中夺回市值第一,AI牛市迎来“换锚”时刻?
即便周四台积电交出超预期的财报,也未能阻止全球科技股进一步杀跌。周五,费城半导体指数较6月高位跌去20%;前两日跌超20%的SK海力士美股一度涨近10%,但未被视为整个行业重新走强信号。AI高估值资产被重估,SpaceX连日跌破发行价、市值一个月蒸发超1万亿美元。
美股半导体指数跌入熊市,芯片股溃败时苹果盘中夺回市值第一,AI牛市迎来“换锚”时刻?
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偷鱼的夜鹭
偷鱼的夜鹭
·
07-01
华尔街见闻简直臭不可闻
曾经的“小甜甜”,如今的“牛夫人”--美国散户“抛弃”Mag 7
花旗数据显示,散户近期仅贡献Mag 7交易量的6%,创四年新低,远低于2023-2024年逾20%的峰值。今年Mag 7指数累计下跌3.1%,同期标普500涨8.7%,被戏称"Lag Seven"。散户撤出的资金流向ETF、加密货币及预测市场。
曾经的“小甜甜”,如今的“牛夫人”--美国散户“抛弃”Mag 7
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05:14","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美股半导体指数跌入熊市,芯片股溃败时苹果盘中夺回市值第一,AI牛市迎来“换锚”时刻?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2652238271","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"即便周四台积电交出超预期的财报,也未能阻止全球科技股进一步杀跌。周五,费城半导体指数较6月高位跌去20%;前两日跌超20%的SK海力士美股一度涨近10%,但未被视为整个行业重新走强信号。AI高估值资产被重估,SpaceX连日跌破发行价、市值一个月蒸发超1万亿美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便周四<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>交出超预期的财报,也未能阻止全球科技股进一步杀跌。周五,费城半导体指数较6月高位跌去20%;前两日跌超20%的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>美股一度涨近10%,但未被视为整个行业重新走强信号。AI高估值资产被重估,SpaceX收跌超5%、连日跌破发行价,市值一个月蒸发超1万亿美元。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI交易最核心的“发动机”开始熄火,美股科技牛市也迎来了今年以来最严峻的一次压力测试。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周五,全球半导体股继续遭遇抛售,费城半导体指数(SOX)盘中跌幅曾达5.7%,收跌约1.6%,较6月下旬所创的历史高点累计回撤约20.2%,跌入技术性熊市。与此同时,曾经一路领涨AI行情的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>等芯片龙头继续承压,市场开始重新审视AI资本开支能否持续支撑当前估值。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eb0024b5f1fd3c66cad906dde413dbb\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但与芯片股形成鲜明反差的是,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>却成为资金新的避风港。盘中,苹果市值一度反超英伟达,重新夺回全球市值第一宝座。这意味着,美股科技板块正在出现今年以来最明显的一次内部风格切换——资金正从最拥挤的AI基础设施交易,转向现金流更稳定、消费电子属性更强的超级平台公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时,SpaceX股价继续重挫,截至本周五,连续两日收盘跌破IPO发行价,再度刷新上市一个多月来低点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">即便周四台积电交出超预期的财报,也未能阻止全球科技股进一步杀跌。越来越多分析人士开始讨论一个此前鲜少被认真对待的问题:持续近两年的AI科技牛市,是否已经开始出现拐点?</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>半导体指数跌入技术性熊市,AI交易遭遇今年最大回撤</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去一周,半导体成为全球表现最差的板块之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据显示,费城半导体指数本周累计跌近9%,较6月历史高位累计回撤超过20%,符合市场对于"技术性熊市"(较近期高点跌幅达到20%)的定义。追踪行业表现的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a> Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)同样跌入熊市区间,并创下去年以来最差单周表现之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更值得关注的是,本轮调整已经从个股扩散至整个产业链。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达、AMD、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">Arm</a>、博通、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>等AI核心受益股连续大跌;亚洲市场<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>、SK海力士、东京电子、Advantest等同步遭遇资金撤离,日本、韩国科技指数跌幅明显扩大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">路透社指出,市场担忧已经从"AI需求是否存在"转向"AI资本开支是否已经透支未来数年的增长"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前推动行情不断创新高的几个逻辑——</p><ul style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI算力投资无限扩张;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">GPU持续供不应求;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">云计算巨头持续提高资本开支;</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如今均开始受到市场重新审视。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">部分对冲基金已经开始降低AI基础设施相关持仓,资金则更多流向此前涨幅相对落后的板块,而非整体撤离股市。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>苹果市值正赶超英伟达 市场开始给AI交易“换锚”</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在芯片股集体下跌之际,美股另一幕却引发市场广泛讨论。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周五美股盘中,苹果市值曾达到约4.88万亿美元,而英伟达因股价下跌约3.5%,市值降至约4.86万亿美元,以盘中水平看,苹果重新成为全球市值最高上市公司,这是苹果自去年4月以来首次重新夺回市值榜首。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此后,随着英伟达股价收窄跌幅,市值又再度反超苹果。到收盘时,苹果股价涨0.14%,连续三日刷新收盘最高纪录,市值约为4.9万亿美元,英伟达股价跌2.21%,市值约为4.91%。苹果可能下个交易日就被抹平市值差距,真正夺回最高市值宝座。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果市值赶超英伟达的这一变化迅速成为社交平台热门话题。不少投资者认为,这象征着市场领导权开始发生变化:AI基础设施不再是唯一的估值锚。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDDT\">Reddit</a>投资社区大量讨论认为,过去一年"英伟达不会输"的市场共识正在松动,而苹果凭借稳定现金流、生态优势以及即将推出的新一代AI Siri,重新获得资金青睐;也有投资者认为,这反映资金开始偏好盈利确定性更高的大盘科技股,而非继续押注高投入、高估值的AI硬件公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">BRI Wealth Management首席投资官Toni Meadows表示,过去苹果一直被视作AI竞赛中的"落后者",但市场这种看法已经开始发生变化,投资者正在重新评估苹果在AI时代的长期竞争力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不少华尔街机构也指出,这并不意味着市场否定AI,而是意味着AI交易开始从"卖铲人"逐渐扩展至真正能够实现AI商业化和现金流变现的平台企业。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>存储板块出现罕见逆势分化,SK海力士为何一枝独秀?</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是,并非所有芯片股都同步下跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国存储芯片龙头SK海力士ADR逆市上涨,美股午盘之初刷新日高时,日内涨幅约为9.9%,尽管此后回吐多数涨幅,仍收涨1.1%,扭转了两日累计跌超20%的暴跌势头,成为少数周五表现亮眼的大型半导体公司之一。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd982ce3461d64935a5e5a277a280fc3\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场分析认为,背后主要有三方面原因:</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先,HBM(高带宽存储器)仍然是AI服务器最紧缺的零部件之一,其供需关系明显优于GPU之外的大多数芯片品类。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其次,相比GPU板块此前数月的大幅上涨,存储板块此前调整更充分,估值压力相对较小。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外,部分资金选择在AI产业链内部进行轮动,从估值更高的GPU龙头转向仍具业绩确定性的存储芯片企业。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,多数机构仍认为,这更像是板块内部的结构性轮动,而非整个半导体行业重新走强的信号。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>AI高估值资产被重估 SpaceX市值一个月蒸发超1万亿美元</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一只备受市场关注的AI概念股——SpaceX——同样成为本轮科技股抛售的重要受害者。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因发动机问题取消Starship火箭发射后,市场情绪持续恶化,SpaceX股价周五加速下跌,当天收跌5.4%,连续第三日盘中、连续第二日收盘跌破IPO发行价,并继续创6月12日上市以来新低。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到本周五收盘,SpaceX股价已连跌六个交易日,本周五日累跌近14.7%,市值约1.63万亿美元。相比6月16日创上市以来股价收盘最高点当天,SpaceX周五的市值已跌去超过1万亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">作为今年最受追捧的新上市科技公司之一,SpaceX的持续下跌,被不少投资者视作高估值成长股风险偏好快速下降的最新信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期从英伟达、美光到SpaceX,大量AI概念龙头市值快速缩水,累计蒸发市值已达到万亿美元级别,显示此前高度拥挤的AI交易正在经历剧烈去杠杆。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>科技牛市“最后一道防线”开始松动?</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比此前几轮调整,本轮科技股下跌最大的不同,在于"好消息也无法推动股价上涨"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在台积电公布超预期财报、上调资本开支之后,全球科技股依然延续跌势;三星电子、SK海力士此前发布强劲业绩,同样未能阻止半导体板块整体调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着,市场交易逻辑正在发生变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去一年,AI资本开支几乎可以覆盖所有估值疑虑;如今,投资者开始更加关注几个关键问题:</p><ul style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">超大规模云厂商的资本开支还能维持多久?</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI基础设施投资何时能够兑现商业回报?</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前盈利增长是否足以支撑经历大幅扩张后的估值体系?</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从市场表现来看,答案仍未明朗。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,当前资金并未全面撤离科技板块,而是更多体现为内部重新定价:一边是半导体、AI硬件等高弹性资产持续遭到减仓;另一边则是苹果等现金流稳健、商业模式成熟的科技巨头重新获得资金追捧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于华尔街而言,这或许意味着AI牛市并未结束,但驱动市场上涨的"锚"正在发生变化——从"谁卖更多GPU",逐步转向"谁最先把AI真正变成稳定利润"。这一轮科技牛市最坚固的防线正在经历考验,而市场新的领导者,也许已经开始浮现。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股半导体指数跌入熊市,芯片股溃败时苹果盘中夺回市值第一,AI牛市迎来“换锚”时刻?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股半导体指数跌入熊市,芯片股溃败时苹果盘中夺回市值第一,AI牛市迎来“换锚”时刻?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-18 05:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便周四<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>交出超预期的财报,也未能阻止全球科技股进一步杀跌。周五,费城半导体指数较6月高位跌去20%;前两日跌超20%的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>美股一度涨近10%,但未被视为整个行业重新走强信号。AI高估值资产被重估,SpaceX收跌超5%、连日跌破发行价,市值一个月蒸发超1万亿美元。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI交易最核心的“发动机”开始熄火,美股科技牛市也迎来了今年以来最严峻的一次压力测试。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周五,全球半导体股继续遭遇抛售,费城半导体指数(SOX)盘中跌幅曾达5.7%,收跌约1.6%,较6月下旬所创的历史高点累计回撤约20.2%,跌入技术性熊市。与此同时,曾经一路领涨AI行情的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>等芯片龙头继续承压,市场开始重新审视AI资本开支能否持续支撑当前估值。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eb0024b5f1fd3c66cad906dde413dbb\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但与芯片股形成鲜明反差的是,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>却成为资金新的避风港。盘中,苹果市值一度反超英伟达,重新夺回全球市值第一宝座。这意味着,美股科技板块正在出现今年以来最明显的一次内部风格切换——资金正从最拥挤的AI基础设施交易,转向现金流更稳定、消费电子属性更强的超级平台公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时,SpaceX股价继续重挫,截至本周五,连续两日收盘跌破IPO发行价,再度刷新上市一个多月来低点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">即便周四台积电交出超预期的财报,也未能阻止全球科技股进一步杀跌。越来越多分析人士开始讨论一个此前鲜少被认真对待的问题:持续近两年的AI科技牛市,是否已经开始出现拐点?</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>半导体指数跌入技术性熊市,AI交易遭遇今年最大回撤</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去一周,半导体成为全球表现最差的板块之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据显示,费城半导体指数本周累计跌近9%,较6月历史高位累计回撤超过20%,符合市场对于"技术性熊市"(较近期高点跌幅达到20%)的定义。追踪行业表现的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a> Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)同样跌入熊市区间,并创下去年以来最差单周表现之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更值得关注的是,本轮调整已经从个股扩散至整个产业链。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达、AMD、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">Arm</a>、博通、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>等AI核心受益股连续大跌;亚洲市场<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>、SK海力士、东京电子、Advantest等同步遭遇资金撤离,日本、韩国科技指数跌幅明显扩大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">路透社指出,市场担忧已经从"AI需求是否存在"转向"AI资本开支是否已经透支未来数年的增长"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前推动行情不断创新高的几个逻辑——</p><ul style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI算力投资无限扩张;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">GPU持续供不应求;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">云计算巨头持续提高资本开支;</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如今均开始受到市场重新审视。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">部分对冲基金已经开始降低AI基础设施相关持仓,资金则更多流向此前涨幅相对落后的板块,而非整体撤离股市。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>苹果市值正赶超英伟达 市场开始给AI交易“换锚”</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在芯片股集体下跌之际,美股另一幕却引发市场广泛讨论。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周五美股盘中,苹果市值曾达到约4.88万亿美元,而英伟达因股价下跌约3.5%,市值降至约4.86万亿美元,以盘中水平看,苹果重新成为全球市值最高上市公司,这是苹果自去年4月以来首次重新夺回市值榜首。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此后,随着英伟达股价收窄跌幅,市值又再度反超苹果。到收盘时,苹果股价涨0.14%,连续三日刷新收盘最高纪录,市值约为4.9万亿美元,英伟达股价跌2.21%,市值约为4.91%。苹果可能下个交易日就被抹平市值差距,真正夺回最高市值宝座。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果市值赶超英伟达的这一变化迅速成为社交平台热门话题。不少投资者认为,这象征着市场领导权开始发生变化:AI基础设施不再是唯一的估值锚。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDDT\">Reddit</a>投资社区大量讨论认为,过去一年"英伟达不会输"的市场共识正在松动,而苹果凭借稳定现金流、生态优势以及即将推出的新一代AI Siri,重新获得资金青睐;也有投资者认为,这反映资金开始偏好盈利确定性更高的大盘科技股,而非继续押注高投入、高估值的AI硬件公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">BRI Wealth Management首席投资官Toni Meadows表示,过去苹果一直被视作AI竞赛中的"落后者",但市场这种看法已经开始发生变化,投资者正在重新评估苹果在AI时代的长期竞争力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不少华尔街机构也指出,这并不意味着市场否定AI,而是意味着AI交易开始从"卖铲人"逐渐扩展至真正能够实现AI商业化和现金流变现的平台企业。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>存储板块出现罕见逆势分化,SK海力士为何一枝独秀?</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是,并非所有芯片股都同步下跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国存储芯片龙头SK海力士ADR逆市上涨,美股午盘之初刷新日高时,日内涨幅约为9.9%,尽管此后回吐多数涨幅,仍收涨1.1%,扭转了两日累计跌超20%的暴跌势头,成为少数周五表现亮眼的大型半导体公司之一。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd982ce3461d64935a5e5a277a280fc3\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场分析认为,背后主要有三方面原因:</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先,HBM(高带宽存储器)仍然是AI服务器最紧缺的零部件之一,其供需关系明显优于GPU之外的大多数芯片品类。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其次,相比GPU板块此前数月的大幅上涨,存储板块此前调整更充分,估值压力相对较小。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外,部分资金选择在AI产业链内部进行轮动,从估值更高的GPU龙头转向仍具业绩确定性的存储芯片企业。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,多数机构仍认为,这更像是板块内部的结构性轮动,而非整个半导体行业重新走强的信号。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>AI高估值资产被重估 SpaceX市值一个月蒸发超1万亿美元</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一只备受市场关注的AI概念股——SpaceX——同样成为本轮科技股抛售的重要受害者。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因发动机问题取消Starship火箭发射后,市场情绪持续恶化,SpaceX股价周五加速下跌,当天收跌5.4%,连续第三日盘中、连续第二日收盘跌破IPO发行价,并继续创6月12日上市以来新低。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到本周五收盘,SpaceX股价已连跌六个交易日,本周五日累跌近14.7%,市值约1.63万亿美元。相比6月16日创上市以来股价收盘最高点当天,SpaceX周五的市值已跌去超过1万亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">作为今年最受追捧的新上市科技公司之一,SpaceX的持续下跌,被不少投资者视作高估值成长股风险偏好快速下降的最新信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期从英伟达、美光到SpaceX,大量AI概念龙头市值快速缩水,累计蒸发市值已达到万亿美元级别,显示此前高度拥挤的AI交易正在经历剧烈去杠杆。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>科技牛市“最后一道防线”开始松动?</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比此前几轮调整,本轮科技股下跌最大的不同,在于"好消息也无法推动股价上涨"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在台积电公布超预期财报、上调资本开支之后,全球科技股依然延续跌势;三星电子、SK海力士此前发布强劲业绩,同样未能阻止半导体板块整体调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着,市场交易逻辑正在发生变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去一年,AI资本开支几乎可以覆盖所有估值疑虑;如今,投资者开始更加关注几个关键问题:</p><ul style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">超大规模云厂商的资本开支还能维持多久?</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI基础设施投资何时能够兑现商业回报?</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前盈利增长是否足以支撑经历大幅扩张后的估值体系?</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从市场表现来看,答案仍未明朗。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,当前资金并未全面撤离科技板块,而是更多体现为内部重新定价:一边是半导体、AI硬件等高弹性资产持续遭到减仓;另一边则是苹果等现金流稳健、商业模式成熟的科技巨头重新获得资金追捧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于华尔街而言,这或许意味着AI牛市并未结束,但驱动市场上涨的"锚"正在发生变化——从"谁卖更多GPU",逐步转向"谁最先把AI真正变成稳定利润"。这一轮科技牛市最坚固的防线正在经历考验,而市场新的领导者,也许已经开始浮现。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e8aba7de194dc92d26747c1cfec057","relate_stocks":{"LU2860962120.EUR":"CPR INVEST - ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"A2\" (EUR) ACC A","LU0138981039.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS SUSTAINABLE MULTI ASSET INCOME \"A\" INC","IE000ITXATA3.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (USD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","CHPS":"XTRACKERS SEMICONDUCTOR SELECT EQUITY ETF","SPCX":"SPAC and New Issue ETF","AAPB":"2倍做多AAPL ETF-GraniteShares","HK0000819398.USD":"BLACKROCK PREMIER SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL EQUITY HIGH INCOME FUND A10 (USD)INC","LU0203347892.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL ACTIVE VALLUE \"A\" (USD) INC 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ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777263","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2652238271","content_text":"即便周四台积电交出超预期的财报,也未能阻止全球科技股进一步杀跌。周五,费城半导体指数较6月高位跌去20%;前两日跌超20%的SK海力士美股一度涨近10%,但未被视为整个行业重新走强信号。AI高估值资产被重估,SpaceX收跌超5%、连日跌破发行价,市值一个月蒸发超1万亿美元。AI交易最核心的“发动机”开始熄火,美股科技牛市也迎来了今年以来最严峻的一次压力测试。周五,全球半导体股继续遭遇抛售,费城半导体指数(SOX)盘中跌幅曾达5.7%,收跌约1.6%,较6月下旬所创的历史高点累计回撤约20.2%,跌入技术性熊市。与此同时,曾经一路领涨AI行情的英伟达、AMD、博通等芯片龙头继续承压,市场开始重新审视AI资本开支能否持续支撑当前估值。但与芯片股形成鲜明反差的是,苹果却成为资金新的避风港。盘中,苹果市值一度反超英伟达,重新夺回全球市值第一宝座。这意味着,美股科技板块正在出现今年以来最明显的一次内部风格切换——资金正从最拥挤的AI基础设施交易,转向现金流更稳定、消费电子属性更强的超级平台公司。同时,SpaceX股价继续重挫,截至本周五,连续两日收盘跌破IPO发行价,再度刷新上市一个多月来低点。即便周四台积电交出超预期的财报,也未能阻止全球科技股进一步杀跌。越来越多分析人士开始讨论一个此前鲜少被认真对待的问题:持续近两年的AI科技牛市,是否已经开始出现拐点?半导体指数跌入技术性熊市,AI交易遭遇今年最大回撤过去一周,半导体成为全球表现最差的板块之一。数据显示,费城半导体指数本周累计跌近9%,较6月历史高位累计回撤超过20%,符合市场对于\"技术性熊市\"(较近期高点跌幅达到20%)的定义。追踪行业表现的iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)同样跌入熊市区间,并创下去年以来最差单周表现之一。更值得关注的是,本轮调整已经从个股扩散至整个产业链。英伟达、AMD、Arm、博通、美光等AI核心受益股连续大跌;亚洲市场三星电子、SK海力士、东京电子、Advantest等同步遭遇资金撤离,日本、韩国科技指数跌幅明显扩大。路透社指出,市场担忧已经从\"AI需求是否存在\"转向\"AI资本开支是否已经透支未来数年的增长\"。此前推动行情不断创新高的几个逻辑——AI算力投资无限扩张;GPU持续供不应求;云计算巨头持续提高资本开支;如今均开始受到市场重新审视。部分对冲基金已经开始降低AI基础设施相关持仓,资金则更多流向此前涨幅相对落后的板块,而非整体撤离股市。苹果市值正赶超英伟达 市场开始给AI交易“换锚”就在芯片股集体下跌之际,美股另一幕却引发市场广泛讨论。本周五美股盘中,苹果市值曾达到约4.88万亿美元,而英伟达因股价下跌约3.5%,市值降至约4.86万亿美元,以盘中水平看,苹果重新成为全球市值最高上市公司,这是苹果自去年4月以来首次重新夺回市值榜首。此后,随着英伟达股价收窄跌幅,市值又再度反超苹果。到收盘时,苹果股价涨0.14%,连续三日刷新收盘最高纪录,市值约为4.9万亿美元,英伟达股价跌2.21%,市值约为4.91%。苹果可能下个交易日就被抹平市值差距,真正夺回最高市值宝座。苹果市值赶超英伟达的这一变化迅速成为社交平台热门话题。不少投资者认为,这象征着市场领导权开始发生变化:AI基础设施不再是唯一的估值锚。Reddit投资社区大量讨论认为,过去一年\"英伟达不会输\"的市场共识正在松动,而苹果凭借稳定现金流、生态优势以及即将推出的新一代AI Siri,重新获得资金青睐;也有投资者认为,这反映资金开始偏好盈利确定性更高的大盘科技股,而非继续押注高投入、高估值的AI硬件公司。BRI Wealth Management首席投资官Toni Meadows表示,过去苹果一直被视作AI竞赛中的\"落后者\",但市场这种看法已经开始发生变化,投资者正在重新评估苹果在AI时代的长期竞争力。不少华尔街机构也指出,这并不意味着市场否定AI,而是意味着AI交易开始从\"卖铲人\"逐渐扩展至真正能够实现AI商业化和现金流变现的平台企业。存储板块出现罕见逆势分化,SK海力士为何一枝独秀?值得注意的是,并非所有芯片股都同步下跌。韩国存储芯片龙头SK海力士ADR逆市上涨,美股午盘之初刷新日高时,日内涨幅约为9.9%,尽管此后回吐多数涨幅,仍收涨1.1%,扭转了两日累计跌超20%的暴跌势头,成为少数周五表现亮眼的大型半导体公司之一。市场分析认为,背后主要有三方面原因:首先,HBM(高带宽存储器)仍然是AI服务器最紧缺的零部件之一,其供需关系明显优于GPU之外的大多数芯片品类。其次,相比GPU板块此前数月的大幅上涨,存储板块此前调整更充分,估值压力相对较小。此外,部分资金选择在AI产业链内部进行轮动,从估值更高的GPU龙头转向仍具业绩确定性的存储芯片企业。不过,多数机构仍认为,这更像是板块内部的结构性轮动,而非整个半导体行业重新走强的信号。AI高估值资产被重估 SpaceX市值一个月蒸发超1万亿美元另一只备受市场关注的AI概念股——SpaceX——同样成为本轮科技股抛售的重要受害者。因发动机问题取消Starship火箭发射后,市场情绪持续恶化,SpaceX股价周五加速下跌,当天收跌5.4%,连续第三日盘中、连续第二日收盘跌破IPO发行价,并继续创6月12日上市以来新低。到本周五收盘,SpaceX股价已连跌六个交易日,本周五日累跌近14.7%,市值约1.63万亿美元。相比6月16日创上市以来股价收盘最高点当天,SpaceX周五的市值已跌去超过1万亿美元。作为今年最受追捧的新上市科技公司之一,SpaceX的持续下跌,被不少投资者视作高估值成长股风险偏好快速下降的最新信号。近期从英伟达、美光到SpaceX,大量AI概念龙头市值快速缩水,累计蒸发市值已达到万亿美元级别,显示此前高度拥挤的AI交易正在经历剧烈去杠杆。科技牛市“最后一道防线”开始松动?相比此前几轮调整,本轮科技股下跌最大的不同,在于\"好消息也无法推动股价上涨\"。就在台积电公布超预期财报、上调资本开支之后,全球科技股依然延续跌势;三星电子、SK海力士此前发布强劲业绩,同样未能阻止半导体板块整体调整。这意味着,市场交易逻辑正在发生变化。过去一年,AI资本开支几乎可以覆盖所有估值疑虑;如今,投资者开始更加关注几个关键问题:超大规模云厂商的资本开支还能维持多久?AI基础设施投资何时能够兑现商业回报?当前盈利增长是否足以支撑经历大幅扩张后的估值体系?从市场表现来看,答案仍未明朗。不过,当前资金并未全面撤离科技板块,而是更多体现为内部重新定价:一边是半导体、AI硬件等高弹性资产持续遭到减仓;另一边则是苹果等现金流稳健、商业模式成熟的科技巨头重新获得资金追捧。对于华尔街而言,这或许意味着AI牛市并未结束,但驱动市场上涨的\"锚\"正在发生变化——从\"谁卖更多GPU\",逐步转向\"谁最先把AI真正变成稳定利润\"。这一轮科技牛市最坚固的防线正在经历考验,而市场新的领导者,也许已经开始浮现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AIFD":0.6,"PTF":1.5,"SPCU":0.77,"SMH":1.5,"TSLA":0.6,"ARMW":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"TSM":1,"SPCF":0.6,"SOCL":0.6,"EEMA":1,"NVYY":0.6,"SHOC":0.6,"SPWO":0.6,"SPCH":0.6,"CHPS":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"TSMG":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"SKUU":0.6,"YMAG":1.5,"APLY":0.6,"07788":0.6,"SNK":0.77,"CGGO":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"EEMO":0.6,"TTEQ":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"AVL":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"AVGX":0.6,"SPAL":0.77,"SPCG":0.6,"SOX":1.95,"ILDR":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"XOVR":0.9,"07388":0.6,"SKHZ":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"BERZ":1.5,"TSMZ":0.6,"ASIA":0.6,"SPCX":0.85,"SKHX":0.6,"CHAT":1.5,"PSI":0.6,"AAPL":1.5,"SPCQ":0.6,"RULE":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"NVDA":1,"HYNX":0.6,"DXYZ":0.77,"RDDT":1,"NVDS":0.6,"XNTK":0.6,"FXL":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"ARM":1,"RAM":0.9,"MUD":0.6,"CLSE":0.6,"RDTL":0.6,"AIPI":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"AMD":1,"QQQA":0.6,"AAPY":0.6,"FTXL":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"AVGO":1,"LFGY":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"UMMA":0.6,"ABFL":0.6,"USD":0.6,"DRAL":0.6,"TEK":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"RDYY":0.6,"EMC":0.6,"SSPC":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"LEGR":0.6,"LOFF":0.6,"BULZ":1.5,"TRFK":0.6,"AIS":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"SPAX":0.6,"SKHYV":0.6,"ARTY":1.5,"AMDL":0.6,"AIPO":1.5,"TDIV":0.6,"VERS":0.9,"ANV":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"ARMU":0.6,"ESUM":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"SKHU":0.6,"EMSF":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"AVGU":0.6,"META":0.6,"MU":1,"SPCM":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"KNOW":0.6,"AAPU":0.6,"TSMY":0.6,"CNAV":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"CIBR":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"AAPD":0.6,"SMHX":0.6,"AVEM":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"MAGY":1.5,"CGNG":0.6,"TSMU":0.6,"SOXX":1,"XLK":0.6,"AGIX":1.5,"AMDS":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"BAI":0.6,"SKHY":1,"DRAM":0.6,"VGT":0.9,"DIPS":0.6,"MEMX":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"MACW.SI":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"AMD.AU":1,"EDZ":0.85,"FAI":0.6,"03145":0.6,"STSM":0.6,"CGIC":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"SOXY":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"VT":0.6,"TSMX":0.6,"AAPB":0.6,"WLDR":0.6,"EGGY":0.6,"AVSE":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"AVGW":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"CORO":0.6,"OND":0.85,"SSNLF":1,"07709":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"AVXC":0.6,"QTOC":1.5,"SK":0.6,"VTHR":1.5,"GOOG":0.6,"AMZN":0.6,"AVS":0.6,"SPRX":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"METV":0.6,"MSFT":0.6,"CGDG":0.6,"EMM":0.6,"WUGI":0.6,"WISE":0.6,"SOXQ":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"ARMG":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"AIQ":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"ARM.AU":1,"07747":0.6,"AGOX":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"AMDW":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"CWI":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"WTAI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":581035305489024,"gmtCreate":1782884490807,"gmtModify":1782885119499,"author":{"id":"4236573177318322","authorId":"4236573177318322","name":"偷鱼的夜鹭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d3ab64e1c98e1c67075995f73d80941","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4236573177318322","idStr":"4236573177318322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"华尔街见闻简直臭不可闻","listText":"华尔街见闻简直臭不可闻","text":"华尔街见闻简直臭不可闻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/581035305489024","repostId":"2648027593","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2648027593","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1782875406,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2648027593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-01 11:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"曾经的“小甜甜”,如今的“牛夫人”--美国散户“抛弃”Mag 7","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2648027593","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"花旗数据显示,散户近期仅贡献Mag 7交易量的6%,创四年新低,远低于2023-2024年逾20%的峰值。今年Mag 7指数累计下跌3.1%,同期标普500涨8.7%,被戏称\"Lag Seven\"。散户撤出的资金流向ETF、加密货币及预测市场。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国散户投资者正在用实际行动与曾经最钟爱的科技巨头划清界限。曾经风靡一时的"Magnificent Seven"(Mag 7)交易热潮正在退潮,散户参与度跌至四年低点,而资金正悄然流向ETF、加密货币乃至预测市场等更广泛的投机渠道。</p>\n<p>6月30日,据彭博报道,花旗集团股票策略师团队的最新数据显示,散户投资者在过去五个交易日内仅贡献了Mag 7整体交易量的6%,创下四年来最低水平。<strong>这一比例与2023年至2024年间动辄超过20%的峰值相比,形成了鲜明落差。</strong>花旗策略师Stuart Kaiser在最新的研报中指出,<strong>这一趋势表明市场对这一长期热门板块的信念正在消退。</strong></p>\n<p>与此同时,Mag 7股票今年以来的表现也令人失望。彭博追踪该组合的指数截至本周一(6月29日)收盘累计下跌3.1%,而同期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数上涨8.7%。<strong>部分市场人士已开始将这一组合戏称为"Lag Seven"(落后七巨头)</strong>。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是,Vanda Research的数据则进一步显示,<strong>散户上周对个股的净买入量低于2020年以来约95%的观测值,投资者倾向于"借机轮动和获利了结,而非部署新资金"。</strong></p>\n<h2>散户撤退:参与度跌至四年低点</h2>\n<p>花旗数据揭示了一个清晰的趋势转折点。</p>\n<p>Mag 7涵盖<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>七家科技巨头。在2023年至2024年的鼎盛时期,散户交易量占比频繁突破20%;进入2025年后,这一比例大多维持在15%以上;而到了近期,已骤降至6%。</p>\n<p>Kaiser表示,成交量下滑从去年底便已开始,并延续至2026年。从更宏观的视角来看,<strong>散户上周对Mag 7的兴趣低于2022年以来约85%的交易日水平,显示出系统性的热情消退,而非短期波动。</strong></p>\n<p><strong>整体散户交易活跃度同样走弱。</strong>Kaiser在研报中指出,6月份散户整体交易量较上月下降15%,而同期全市场总交易量却上升了12%——两者的背离,进一步凸显散户群体的主动收缩。</p>\n<p>在Mag 7内部,英伟达承受了散户撤离最为明显的冲击。上周散户交易占该股总成交量的8.1%,低于前一周的9.6%。</p>\n<p>Kaiser指出,散户曾长期大举买入这家芯片巨头的股票,但情绪在伊朗战争爆发后出现转变。<strong>今年3月,散户投资者自2025年7月以来首次净卖出英伟达股票。</strong></p>\n<p>特斯拉则是七只成分股中散户兴趣相对最高的,占总交易量的10%,但这一数字同样接近2022年以来的历史低位。从某种意义上说,特斯拉的"10%"更像是一个参照系下的"矮子里拔将军",而非真正意义上的强劲需求。</p>\n<p><strong>散户的退潮并不意味着风险已然释放。</strong>花旗分析师David Chew领衔的团队警告称,尽管以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数在6月出现下跌,但整体投资者对美国科技股的仓位仍处于高位,这意味着该板块面临进一步下行的风险。</p>\n<p>曾经引领牛市的"七巨头",如今正经历一段罕见的相对低迷期——而无论是散户的用脚投票,还是机构的审慎态度,都在提示市场:<strong>这一板块的叙事逻辑,或许正在悄然重写。</strong></p>\n<h2>资金去哪了:ETF、加密与预测市场瓜分流量</h2>\n<p>散户并未就此"躺平",而是将注意力和资金转移至其他渠道。</p>\n<p>Vanda Research指出,预测市场、加密货币、体育博彩以及Hyperliquid等高流动性交易平台,如今正在争夺"曾经几乎专属于迷因股和个股的同一池散户投机资本"。</p>\n<p>与此同时,<strong>散户对美国上市ETF的净买入量略高于历史均值,表明投资者正从个股精选转向更广泛的市场敞口。</strong></p>\n<p>Kaiser也提出了<strong>多种可能的解释:</strong>投资者或许更倾向于通过杠杆ETF而非个股来获取风险敞口;也可能将更多精力投入预测市场而非股票;此外,汽油价格上涨等生活成本压力,也可能压缩了可用于再投资的退税资金。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>曾经的“小甜甜”,如今的“牛夫人”--美国散户“抛弃”Mag 7</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n曾经的“小甜甜”,如今的“牛夫人”--美国散户“抛弃”Mag 7\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-01 11:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美国散户投资者正在用实际行动与曾经最钟爱的科技巨头划清界限。曾经风靡一时的"Magnificent Seven"(Mag 7)交易热潮正在退潮,散户参与度跌至四年低点,而资金正悄然流向ETF、加密货币乃至预测市场等更广泛的投机渠道。</p>\n<p>6月30日,据彭博报道,花旗集团股票策略师团队的最新数据显示,散户投资者在过去五个交易日内仅贡献了Mag 7整体交易量的6%,创下四年来最低水平。<strong>这一比例与2023年至2024年间动辄超过20%的峰值相比,形成了鲜明落差。</strong>花旗策略师Stuart Kaiser在最新的研报中指出,<strong>这一趋势表明市场对这一长期热门板块的信念正在消退。</strong></p>\n<p>与此同时,Mag 7股票今年以来的表现也令人失望。彭博追踪该组合的指数截至本周一(6月29日)收盘累计下跌3.1%,而同期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数上涨8.7%。<strong>部分市场人士已开始将这一组合戏称为"Lag Seven"(落后七巨头)</strong>。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是,Vanda Research的数据则进一步显示,<strong>散户上周对个股的净买入量低于2020年以来约95%的观测值,投资者倾向于"借机轮动和获利了结,而非部署新资金"。</strong></p>\n<h2>散户撤退:参与度跌至四年低点</h2>\n<p>花旗数据揭示了一个清晰的趋势转折点。</p>\n<p>Mag 7涵盖<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>七家科技巨头。在2023年至2024年的鼎盛时期,散户交易量占比频繁突破20%;进入2025年后,这一比例大多维持在15%以上;而到了近期,已骤降至6%。</p>\n<p>Kaiser表示,成交量下滑从去年底便已开始,并延续至2026年。从更宏观的视角来看,<strong>散户上周对Mag 7的兴趣低于2022年以来约85%的交易日水平,显示出系统性的热情消退,而非短期波动。</strong></p>\n<p><strong>整体散户交易活跃度同样走弱。</strong>Kaiser在研报中指出,6月份散户整体交易量较上月下降15%,而同期全市场总交易量却上升了12%——两者的背离,进一步凸显散户群体的主动收缩。</p>\n<p>在Mag 7内部,英伟达承受了散户撤离最为明显的冲击。上周散户交易占该股总成交量的8.1%,低于前一周的9.6%。</p>\n<p>Kaiser指出,散户曾长期大举买入这家芯片巨头的股票,但情绪在伊朗战争爆发后出现转变。<strong>今年3月,散户投资者自2025年7月以来首次净卖出英伟达股票。</strong></p>\n<p>特斯拉则是七只成分股中散户兴趣相对最高的,占总交易量的10%,但这一数字同样接近2022年以来的历史低位。从某种意义上说,特斯拉的"10%"更像是一个参照系下的"矮子里拔将军",而非真正意义上的强劲需求。</p>\n<p><strong>散户的退潮并不意味着风险已然释放。</strong>花旗分析师David Chew领衔的团队警告称,尽管以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数在6月出现下跌,但整体投资者对美国科技股的仓位仍处于高位,这意味着该板块面临进一步下行的风险。</p>\n<p>曾经引领牛市的"七巨头",如今正经历一段罕见的相对低迷期——而无论是散户的用脚投票,还是机构的审慎态度,都在提示市场:<strong>这一板块的叙事逻辑,或许正在悄然重写。</strong></p>\n<h2>资金去哪了:ETF、加密与预测市场瓜分流量</h2>\n<p>散户并未就此"躺平",而是将注意力和资金转移至其他渠道。</p>\n<p>Vanda Research指出,预测市场、加密货币、体育博彩以及Hyperliquid等高流动性交易平台,如今正在争夺"曾经几乎专属于迷因股和个股的同一池散户投机资本"。</p>\n<p>与此同时,<strong>散户对美国上市ETF的净买入量略高于历史均值,表明投资者正从个股精选转向更广泛的市场敞口。</strong></p>\n<p>Kaiser也提出了<strong>多种可能的解释:</strong>投资者或许更倾向于通过杠杆ETF而非个股来获取风险敞口;也可能将更多精力投入预测市场而非股票;此外,汽油价格上涨等生活成本压力,也可能压缩了可用于再投资的退税资金。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c16735f499dfaea008bd7be1b106e6f","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","XMAG":"Defiance Large Cap ex-Mag 7 ETF","AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","MAGS":"Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF","GOOG":"谷歌","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3775907","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2648027593","content_text":"美国散户投资者正在用实际行动与曾经最钟爱的科技巨头划清界限。曾经风靡一时的\"Magnificent Seven\"(Mag 7)交易热潮正在退潮,散户参与度跌至四年低点,而资金正悄然流向ETF、加密货币乃至预测市场等更广泛的投机渠道。\n6月30日,据彭博报道,花旗集团股票策略师团队的最新数据显示,散户投资者在过去五个交易日内仅贡献了Mag 7整体交易量的6%,创下四年来最低水平。这一比例与2023年至2024年间动辄超过20%的峰值相比,形成了鲜明落差。花旗策略师Stuart Kaiser在最新的研报中指出,这一趋势表明市场对这一长期热门板块的信念正在消退。\n与此同时,Mag 7股票今年以来的表现也令人失望。彭博追踪该组合的指数截至本周一(6月29日)收盘累计下跌3.1%,而同期标普500指数上涨8.7%。部分市场人士已开始将这一组合戏称为\"Lag Seven\"(落后七巨头)。\n值得注意的是,Vanda Research的数据则进一步显示,散户上周对个股的净买入量低于2020年以来约95%的观测值,投资者倾向于\"借机轮动和获利了结,而非部署新资金\"。\n散户撤退:参与度跌至四年低点\n花旗数据揭示了一个清晰的趋势转折点。\nMag 7涵盖谷歌母公司Alphabet、亚马逊、苹果、Meta、微软、英伟达和特斯拉七家科技巨头。在2023年至2024年的鼎盛时期,散户交易量占比频繁突破20%;进入2025年后,这一比例大多维持在15%以上;而到了近期,已骤降至6%。\nKaiser表示,成交量下滑从去年底便已开始,并延续至2026年。从更宏观的视角来看,散户上周对Mag 7的兴趣低于2022年以来约85%的交易日水平,显示出系统性的热情消退,而非短期波动。\n整体散户交易活跃度同样走弱。Kaiser在研报中指出,6月份散户整体交易量较上月下降15%,而同期全市场总交易量却上升了12%——两者的背离,进一步凸显散户群体的主动收缩。\n在Mag 7内部,英伟达承受了散户撤离最为明显的冲击。上周散户交易占该股总成交量的8.1%,低于前一周的9.6%。\nKaiser指出,散户曾长期大举买入这家芯片巨头的股票,但情绪在伊朗战争爆发后出现转变。今年3月,散户投资者自2025年7月以来首次净卖出英伟达股票。\n特斯拉则是七只成分股中散户兴趣相对最高的,占总交易量的10%,但这一数字同样接近2022年以来的历史低位。从某种意义上说,特斯拉的\"10%\"更像是一个参照系下的\"矮子里拔将军\",而非真正意义上的强劲需求。\n散户的退潮并不意味着风险已然释放。花旗分析师David Chew领衔的团队警告称,尽管以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数在6月出现下跌,但整体投资者对美国科技股的仓位仍处于高位,这意味着该板块面临进一步下行的风险。\n曾经引领牛市的\"七巨头\",如今正经历一段罕见的相对低迷期——而无论是散户的用脚投票,还是机构的审慎态度,都在提示市场:这一板块的叙事逻辑,或许正在悄然重写。\n资金去哪了:ETF、加密与预测市场瓜分流量\n散户并未就此\"躺平\",而是将注意力和资金转移至其他渠道。\nVanda Research指出,预测市场、加密货币、体育博彩以及Hyperliquid等高流动性交易平台,如今正在争夺\"曾经几乎专属于迷因股和个股的同一池散户投机资本\"。\n与此同时,散户对美国上市ETF的净买入量略高于历史均值,表明投资者正从个股精选转向更广泛的市场敞口。\nKaiser也提出了多种可能的解释:投资者或许更倾向于通过杠杆ETF而非个股来获取风险敞口;也可能将更多精力投入预测市场而非股票;此外,汽油价格上涨等生活成本压力,也可能压缩了可用于再投资的退税资金。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.6,"MAGS":1.5,"GOOG":0.6,"TSLA":0.6,"XMAG":1.5,"NVDA":0.6,"META":0.6,"MSFT":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3492787339030986","idStr":"3492787339030986"},"content":"这家媒体早就被约谈过了,被招安了","text":"这家媒体早就被约谈过了,被招安了","html":"这家媒体早就被约谈过了,被招安了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}