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十亿佬

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- 十亿佬十亿佬
  ·07-10
  估值低那你怎么不买？你光看pe，不看M2吗？市值大到一定体量就不能用pe，只能用市净率。因为社会的钱不够了，照这样估值去定价，怪不得经济危机不断
  PE倍数创本轮AI牛市以来最低！美银称英伟达“估值不合理”
  市场正在错误定价，英伟达的不合理“折价”正是黄金买点！该行认为，市场当前对英伟达的估值隐含了对其2027/2028年每股收益高达30-35%的“不合理折价”，导致其远期市盈率跌至7年来的最低点（18倍）。美银认为，这一担忧同时高估了成本冲击，又低估了英伟达的定价能力。美银因此预计，英伟达毛利率将维持在70%中段水平。
  PE倍数创本轮AI牛市以来最低！美银称英伟达“估值不合理”
  116 评论
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- 十亿佬十亿佬
  ·07-02
  $高通(QCOM)$ 完了，已经亏太多了，两万刀要亏完了
  483 评论
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- 十亿佬十亿佬
  ·06-26
  $美光科技(MU)$ 崩！天地毁灭奸星炮
  399 评论
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- 十亿佬十亿佬
  ·06-26
  $闪迪(SNDK)$ 今晚跌25%
  155 评论
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- 十亿佬十亿佬
  ·06-25
  $闪迪(SNDK)$ 后悔啊！踏空了
  719 1
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- 十亿佬十亿佬
  ·06-25
  $美光科技(MU)$ 踏空了，好气啊，看错方向了
  1,209 5
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- 十亿佬十亿佬
  ·06-24
  $英特尔(INTC)$ 硬要拉回来构筑一下双顶？
  356 评论
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- 十亿佬十亿佬
  ·06-24
  $英特尔(INTC)$ 假装自己很牛？拉回来一半装一下比？等会AI全崩盘
  413 评论
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- 十亿佬十亿佬
  ·06-23
  $英特尔(INTC)$ 跌的不够猛！给我跌！做空！打崩！打死多头
  298 评论
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- 十亿佬十亿佬
  ·06-22
  $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ 崩！一夫当关万夫莫开
  409 评论
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12:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"PE倍数创本轮AI牛市以来最低！美银称英伟达“估值不合理”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121893110","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场正在错误定价，英伟达的不合理“折价”正是黄金买点！该行认为，市场当前对英伟达的估值隐含了对其2027/2028年每股收益高达30-35%的“不合理折价”，导致其远期市盈率跌至7年来的最低点（18倍）。美银认为，这一担忧同时高估了成本冲击，又低估了英伟达的定价能力。美银因此预计，英伟达毛利率将维持在70%中段水平。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场正在错误定价，英伟达的不合理“折价”正是黄金买点</strong>！尽管在人工智能领域占据绝对统治地位，英伟达今年迄今的股价仅上涨了3%，远远落后于暴涨82%的费城半导体指数。美银认为，这种巨大的背离揭示了一个极具吸引力的买入机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息，美银（BofA Securities）7月7日研报的核心逻辑清晰：<strong>英伟达当前的估值折价，源于市场对内存成本、ASIC竞争和持仓集中度的过度定价，而非基本面的真实恶化。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该行认为，市场当前对英伟达的估值隐含了对其2027/2028年每股收益（EPS）高达30-35%的“不合理折价”，导致其远期市盈率跌至7年来的最低点（18倍）。换言之，<strong>市场在为一个并不存在的风险买单。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，@StockMKTNewz在社交平台X上发帖称，<strong>英伟达的估值现已成为人工智能热潮期间的最低水平，英伟达目前的市盈率低于20，自2019年初以来处于最低水平。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/61fad43eb52964087cd23855d8e38488\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"803\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，美银认为，<strong>市场过度担忧了内存成本上升、定制芯片（ASIC）竞争、拥挤的机构持仓以及资金使用效率，却完全无视了英伟达无可匹敌的定价权、高达1190亿美元的供应链承诺以及持续扩大的市场份额。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI数据中心支出超级周期尚未见顶、英伟达护城河持续加深的背景下，美银认为当前股价提供了一个&#34;增强型买入机会&#34;，重申对英伟达的“买入”评级，<strong>目标价350美元</strong>，较当前204.12美元的股价隐含<strong>超70%的上行空间</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d80bdfd89385824dcdca2abdf5e3568d\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>估值悖论：7年最低市盈率，市场在为何折价？</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达目前股价195.55美元，对应2027财年预期市盈率仅约<strong>21.5倍</strong>（美银预测EPS为9.09美元），2028财年更降至<strong>14.7倍</strong>。这一估值水平，不仅是英伟达近7年来的历史低位，更与其大型科技同行形成了显著落差。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银的比较数据显示，苹果、微软、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta这五大科技巨头，当前平均以<strong>22倍/19倍</strong>的2027/2028年预期市盈率交易，比英伟达高出约30-35%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6a545d7895f1c1b3706d3632ffec3fb2\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银的核心论点是：<strong>英伟达面临的AI机遇与内存成本压力，与上述五家公司并无本质区别</strong>，却承受了额外的估值折价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一折价隐含的逻辑，相当于市场已经预先&#34;定价&#34;了英伟达2027/2028年EPS将出现30-35%的下行冲击——而美银认为这一假设根本站不住脚。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从PEG（市盈率相对盈利增长比率）角度看，英伟达2027年PEG仅为<strong>0.3倍</strong>，远低于苹果的2.7倍、微软的1.0倍、谷歌的1.9倍，性价比极为突出。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，美银认为，这种巨大的估值折价完全源于市场对内存成本和竞争论调的过度反应。<strong>即将到来的财报电话会议将成为一个关键的积极催化剂，有望进一步向市场澄清英伟达在产品、定价和供应链方面坚不可摧的护城河。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>内存成本：冲击被高估，定价权被低估</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场对英伟达毛利率的担忧，主要集中在高带宽内存（HBM）成本的持续上涨。美银认为，这一担忧<strong>同时高估了成本冲击，又低估了英伟达的定价能力</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>数据揭示了真实的利润空间：</strong>从Blackwell架构升级至Vera Rubin架构，每机架的HBM成本增量约为<strong>20-30万美元</strong>；然而，整个机架的售价预计将上涨<strong>200-300万美元</strong>（从Blackwell的约300-400万美元/机架，提升至Vera Rubin的约600-700万美元/机架）。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bf2999584ee7b85f0a82131725a36bac\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">价格上涨的驱动力不仅仅是内存，还包括升级后的Vera CPU、NVLink和Quantum以太网网络（这些组件均不需要HBM内存），以及一系列加速推理、降低首字节时间（TTFT）成本的软件功能。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达还指出，Vera Rubin相比Blackwell可实现：</p><ul style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">每瓦性能提升约<strong>10倍</strong>（推理token成本降低约10倍）；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">推理能力提升约<strong>3.3倍</strong>；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">训练能力提升最高<strong>5倍</strong>。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，英伟达已通过内存、晶圆、封装和电力等领域超过<strong>1190亿美元</strong>的预购承诺，构建了强大的供应链护城河。美银因此预计，英伟达毛利率将维持在<strong>70%中段</strong>水平。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>ASIC竞争：700倍增长的历史已给出答案</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">定制芯片（ASIC）对英伟达的威胁，是另一个困扰市场的核心问题。美银用一组数据直接回应：</p><ul style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谷歌TPU于<strong>2015年</strong>推出；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">亚马逊Trainium于<strong>2020年</strong>推出；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Meta MTIA于<strong>2023年</strong>推出。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，自2015年以来，英伟达GPU加速器销售额已增长约<strong>700倍</strong>。更值得关注的是，根据英伟达最新的分部披露，其对超大规模云厂商（Hyperscaler）的销售同比增长<strong>115%</strong>，约为云计算资本支出增速的<strong>2倍</strong>，显示英伟达在超大规模客户中的钱包份额仍在持续扩大，而非收缩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银的逻辑是：<strong>ASIC是为特定功能定制的窄域产品，仅在特定云厂商内部使用；而英伟达提供的是一个广泛可用、生态完善的通用平台</strong>。长期来看，美银预计英伟达将维持AI算力资本支出<strong>65-70%以上</strong>的市场份额，剩余30-35%由ASIC和AMD等其他厂商分享。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>AI市场空间：2030年1.7万亿美元的盛宴</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银对AI数据中心市场的长期预测，为英伟达的增长持续性提供了宏观支撑。预测数据如下：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">全球AI数据中心系统市场规模，预计从2025年的<strong>2730亿美元</strong>增长至2030年的约<strong>1.7万亿美元</strong>，复合年增长率（CAGR）达<strong>44%</strong>；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">其中AI加速器（GPU/ASIC/XPU）市场，预计从2025年的约<strong>1970亿美元</strong>增长至2030年的约<strong>1.1万亿美元</strong>；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">HBM市场预计从2025年的<strong>345亿美元</strong>增长至2030年的<strong>2463亿美元</strong>，CAGR达48%；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI网络连接市场预计以<strong>45%的CAGR</strong>增长，至2030年达到<strong>1100亿美元</strong>；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">整体数据中心系统市场（含AI与非AI）预计从2025年的<strong>5056亿美元</strong>增长至2030年的约<strong>2.1万亿美元</strong>，CAGR为33%，远超整体IT支出9%的增速。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c9d09da59d94a058f2392b5c9142a0a2\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在英伟达自身的EPS预测路径上，美银预计：2027财年EPS达<strong>9.09美元</strong>，2028财年达<strong>13.27美元</strong>，2030财年EPS潜力超过<strong>25美元</strong>。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>两大潜在压制因素：持仓集中与生态投资</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银并未回避英伟达当前面临的两个真实压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>其一，机构持仓集中。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达是标普500指数中市值最大的成分股，在主动管理型标普500基金中，持仓权重为其相对市值的<strong>1.15倍</strong>，被<strong>78%</strong>的主动管理基金持有（非英伟达同类股票的平均持有比例为81%）。美银认为，在市场消化新增科技股供给之前，这一持仓集中度将持续构成股价压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e41efb7de3a64b864d9d3fab94159112\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\"/><span></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/140bb38f318ca1e77a89ff4bb135bc9e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>其二，生态系统投资规模。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达近期对供应商和客户的投资总额约为<strong>650亿美元</strong>，涵盖OpenAI（300亿美元）、Anthropic（最高100亿美元）、英特尔（50亿美元）等多家公司。美银估算，这一投资规模约占2026财年预期自由现金流（约1870亿美元）的<strong>35%</strong>，或2027财年预期自由现金流（约3850亿美元）的约<strong>17%</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/323559d07c09c27e88d7dc5d49daef96\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"447\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美银的结论是：</strong>这一投资构成&#34;黄色预警&#34;，但不足以实质性损害股东回报能力——英伟达仍有充足空间提升分红和回购力度。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PE倍数创本轮AI牛市以来最低！美银称英伟达“估值不合理”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPE倍数创本轮AI牛市以来最低！美银称英伟达“估值不合理”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-09 12:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3776518><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场正在错误定价，英伟达的不合理“折价”正是黄金买点！尽管在人工智能领域占据绝对统治地位，英伟达今年迄今的股价仅上涨了3%，远远落后于暴涨82%的费城半导体指数。美银认为，这种巨大的背离揭示了一个极具吸引力的买入机会。据追风交易台消息，美银（BofA Securities）7月7日研报的核心逻辑清晰：英伟达当前的估值折价，源于市场对内存成本、ASIC竞争和持仓集中度的过度定价，而非基本面的真实恶化...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3776518\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"NVDL":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","ANV":"GraniteShares Autocallable NVDA ETF","DIPS":"做空NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","NVDQ":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-T-Rex","NVDA":"英伟达","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","NVDO":"2倍上限加速NVDA ETF-Leverage Shares","NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","07388":"XI二南英伟","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","NVYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF","NVDB":"ProShares Ultra NVDA ETF","NVII":"Rex NVDA Growth & Income ETF","07788":"南方两倍做多英伟达","NVDD":"1倍做空NVDA ETF-Direxion","NVDG":"2倍做多NVDA ETF- Leverage Shares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3776518","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121893110","content_text":"市场正在错误定价，英伟达的不合理“折价”正是黄金买点！尽管在人工智能领域占据绝对统治地位，英伟达今年迄今的股价仅上涨了3%，远远落后于暴涨82%的费城半导体指数。美银认为，这种巨大的背离揭示了一个极具吸引力的买入机会。据追风交易台消息，美银（BofA Securities）7月7日研报的核心逻辑清晰：英伟达当前的估值折价，源于市场对内存成本、ASIC竞争和持仓集中度的过度定价，而非基本面的真实恶化。该行认为，市场当前对英伟达的估值隐含了对其2027/2028年每股收益（EPS）高达30-35%的“不合理折价”，导致其远期市盈率跌至7年来的最低点（18倍）。换言之，市场在为一个并不存在的风险买单。值得注意的是，@StockMKTNewz在社交平台X上发帖称，英伟达的估值现已成为人工智能热潮期间的最低水平，英伟达目前的市盈率低于20，自2019年初以来处于最低水平。与此同时，美银认为，市场过度担忧了内存成本上升、定制芯片（ASIC）竞争、拥挤的机构持仓以及资金使用效率，却完全无视了英伟达无可匹敌的定价权、高达1190亿美元的供应链承诺以及持续扩大的市场份额。在AI数据中心支出超级周期尚未见顶、英伟达护城河持续加深的背景下，美银认为当前股价提供了一个\"增强型买入机会\"，重申对英伟达的“买入”评级，目标价350美元，较当前204.12美元的股价隐含超70%的上行空间。估值悖论：7年最低市盈率，市场在为何折价？英伟达目前股价195.55美元，对应2027财年预期市盈率仅约21.5倍（美银预测EPS为9.09美元），2028财年更降至14.7倍。这一估值水平，不仅是英伟达近7年来的历史低位，更与其大型科技同行形成了显著落差。美银的比较数据显示，苹果、微软、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta这五大科技巨头，当前平均以22倍/19倍的2027/2028年预期市盈率交易，比英伟达高出约30-35%。美银的核心论点是：英伟达面临的AI机遇与内存成本压力，与上述五家公司并无本质区别，却承受了额外的估值折价。这一折价隐含的逻辑，相当于市场已经预先\"定价\"了英伟达2027/2028年EPS将出现30-35%的下行冲击——而美银认为这一假设根本站不住脚。从PEG（市盈率相对盈利增长比率）角度看，英伟达2027年PEG仅为0.3倍，远低于苹果的2.7倍、微软的1.0倍、谷歌的1.9倍，性价比极为突出。与此同时，美银认为，这种巨大的估值折价完全源于市场对内存成本和竞争论调的过度反应。即将到来的财报电话会议将成为一个关键的积极催化剂，有望进一步向市场澄清英伟达在产品、定价和供应链方面坚不可摧的护城河。内存成本：冲击被高估，定价权被低估市场对英伟达毛利率的担忧，主要集中在高带宽内存（HBM）成本的持续上涨。美银认为，这一担忧同时高估了成本冲击，又低估了英伟达的定价能力。数据揭示了真实的利润空间：从Blackwell架构升级至Vera Rubin架构，每机架的HBM成本增量约为20-30万美元；然而，整个机架的售价预计将上涨200-300万美元（从Blackwell的约300-400万美元/机架，提升至Vera Rubin的约600-700万美元/机架）。价格上涨的驱动力不仅仅是内存，还包括升级后的Vera CPU、NVLink和Quantum以太网网络（这些组件均不需要HBM内存），以及一系列加速推理、降低首字节时间（TTFT）成本的软件功能。英伟达还指出，Vera Rubin相比Blackwell可实现：每瓦性能提升约10倍（推理token成本降低约10倍）；推理能力提升约3.3倍；训练能力提升最高5倍。此外，英伟达已通过内存、晶圆、封装和电力等领域超过1190亿美元的预购承诺，构建了强大的供应链护城河。美银因此预计，英伟达毛利率将维持在70%中段水平。ASIC竞争：700倍增长的历史已给出答案定制芯片（ASIC）对英伟达的威胁，是另一个困扰市场的核心问题。美银用一组数据直接回应：谷歌TPU于2015年推出；亚马逊Trainium于2020年推出；Meta MTIA于2023年推出。然而，自2015年以来，英伟达GPU加速器销售额已增长约700倍。更值得关注的是，根据英伟达最新的分部披露，其对超大规模云厂商（Hyperscaler）的销售同比增长115%，约为云计算资本支出增速的2倍，显示英伟达在超大规模客户中的钱包份额仍在持续扩大，而非收缩。美银的逻辑是：ASIC是为特定功能定制的窄域产品，仅在特定云厂商内部使用；而英伟达提供的是一个广泛可用、生态完善的通用平台。长期来看，美银预计英伟达将维持AI算力资本支出65-70%以上的市场份额，剩余30-35%由ASIC和AMD等其他厂商分享。AI市场空间：2030年1.7万亿美元的盛宴美银对AI数据中心市场的长期预测，为英伟达的增长持续性提供了宏观支撑。预测数据如下：全球AI数据中心系统市场规模，预计从2025年的2730亿美元增长至2030年的约1.7万亿美元，复合年增长率（CAGR）达44%；其中AI加速器（GPU/ASIC/XPU）市场，预计从2025年的约1970亿美元增长至2030年的约1.1万亿美元；HBM市场预计从2025年的345亿美元增长至2030年的2463亿美元，CAGR达48%；AI网络连接市场预计以45%的CAGR增长，至2030年达到1100亿美元；整体数据中心系统市场（含AI与非AI）预计从2025年的5056亿美元增长至2030年的约2.1万亿美元，CAGR为33%，远超整体IT支出9%的增速。在英伟达自身的EPS预测路径上，美银预计：2027财年EPS达9.09美元，2028财年达13.27美元，2030财年EPS潜力超过25美元。两大潜在压制因素：持仓集中与生态投资美银并未回避英伟达当前面临的两个真实压力。其一，机构持仓集中。英伟达是标普500指数中市值最大的成分股，在主动管理型标普500基金中，持仓权重为其相对市值的1.15倍，被78%的主动管理基金持有（非英伟达同类股票的平均持有比例为81%）。美银认为，在市场消化新增科技股供给之前，这一持仓集中度将持续构成股价压力。其二，生态系统投资规模。英伟达近期对供应商和客户的投资总额约为650亿美元，涵盖OpenAI（300亿美元）、Anthropic（最高100亿美元）、英特尔（50亿美元）等多家公司。美银估算，这一投资规模约占2026财年预期自由现金流（约1870亿美元）的35%，或2027财年预期自由现金流（约3850亿美元）的约17%。美银的结论是：这一投资构成\"黄色预警\"，但不足以实质性损害股东回报能力——英伟达仍有充足空间提升分红和回购力度。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"07788":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":581451555349528,"gmtCreate":1782987381936,"gmtModify":1782987384326,"author":{"id":"4235954884227792","authorId":"4235954884227792","name":"十亿佬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/default-avatar2.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4235954884227792","authorIdStr":"4235954884227792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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