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CainLuo
IP属地：辽宁
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CainLuo
CainLuo
·
08-28 21:59
$英伟达(NVDA)$
我就说财报之后肯定会跌麻了[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]
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CainLuo
CainLuo
·
08-28 15:53
他什么也救不了，继续装疯卖傻，债率继续上升，股市继续下跌，这就是今晚的结果[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
今夜，沃什能否拯救美债？或决定AI牛市命运
美银警告，长端美债收益率正主导全球泡沫，成AI牛市“阿喀琉斯之踵”。今夜杰克逊霍尔会议迎控利率关键一搏，沃什演讲的"成功剧本"是实现收益率曲线牛市平坦化——即通过对通胀释放可信的鹰派信号锚定短端，同时对长端债券释放鸽派暗示，为财政部的国债回购计划提供支撑。一旦失败，全球资产将面临剧烈重估。
今夜，沃什能否拯救美债？或决定AI牛市命运
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CainLuo
CainLuo
·
08-26
$英伟达(NVDA)$
如无意外，财报之后立马暴跌，然后我婶发言再次暴跌，继续在200价格徘徊
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CainLuo
CainLuo
·
08-03
$英伟达(NVDA)$
别相信喊多的，说定都是被套在山顶，然后借机发挥，学我，被套在山顶，硬生生扛住了5、6、7[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
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CainLuo
CainLuo
·
07-27
$英伟达(NVDA)$
其实市场很清楚达子不是被错杀，恰恰相反，它自己既做裁判又做选手，还到处护，这已经不是说AI不可破碎的问题了[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
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CainLuo
CainLuo
·
07-23
$英伟达(NVDA)$
涨是不可能的，机构都逃离了
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CainLuo
CainLuo
·
07-17
$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$
前期涨的太多了，都在抛售
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CainLuo
CainLuo
·
07-16
$英伟达(NVDA)$
存储跌，达子也跟着跌，根本没有自己的走势，而且老黄还到处跑来跑去，生意都不做了[可爱] [可爱] [可爱]
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CainLuo
CainLuo
·
07-16
$英伟达(NVDA)$
缺德达依旧看空，就等跌破ema200
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CainLuo
CainLuo
·
07-01
$英伟达(NVDA)$
前两天的涨幅都是诱骗，肯定还会继续空的，泡泡吹的太大了
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justify;\">美银的牛熊指标本周进一步攀升至9.7，继续深陷"极端做多"区域，5月26日触发的卖出信号迄今标普500指数仍上涨2.8%。与此同时，全球82%的股票市场指数当前处于"超买"状态，距离触发广度规则卖出信号的88%阈值仅一步之遥。资金面上，黄金与加密货币均录得自2025年10月以来最大单周流入，而美股出现五周来首度净流出。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31647639f4e4982671ba1e029e3050a0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"292\"/></p><h2 id=\"ai\">债市主导：长端收益率是AI牛市的阿喀琉斯之踵</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银策略团队在报告中明确指出，当前市场逻辑的核心命题是"债市主导泡沫，而非泡沫主导债市"。<strong>这一判断直接决定了科技板块的命运：AI基础设施建设方（半导体，以SOX指数为代表）与AI直接受益方（"壮丽七雄"MAGS）相对AI应用方（医疗XLV、金融XLF）的跑输格局，只有在30年期美债收益率回落至5%以下后方能逆转。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银进一步阐明了压制长端收益率的政策必要性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其一，<strong>科技巨头的AI资本开支热潮需要低成本融资环境支撑</strong>——报告指出，自美联储2025年10月降息以来，"壮丽七雄"股价几乎原地踏步，标志着新生债券反弹的终结。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其二，<strong>若消费者因担忧40万亿美元国家债务令政府在下次危机中无力救市，而被迫大幅提升预防性储蓄，则将对消费构成系统性压制。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在此背景下，<strong>美银将当前政策定性为"准量化宽松/收益率曲线控制"新阶段</strong>，认为这一机制旨在同时维系经济繁荣与政治资本。值得注意的是，财政部国债回购计划将于11月4日到期，距美国中期选举仅差一天。</p><h2 id=\"2a891893\">资金流向：黄金加密领跑，美股现压力信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至8月26日当周，全球资金流向呈现明显分化。债券继续获得170亿美元流入，创连续70周正流入纪录；黄金录得73亿美元流入，为2025年10月以来最大单周流入；加密货币吸引32亿美元，同样为2025年10月以来新高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此形成对比的是，美股出现五周来首次净流出（44亿美元），高收益债券也录得4月以来最大单周流出（7亿美元）。分板块来看，科技板块流入46亿美元为近四周最高，大宗商品相关的材料板块流入42亿美元为3月以来最大；而医疗保健流出11亿美元，为3月以来最大单周流出。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eafbeaab5f2ce392efe44e5414851fea\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"392\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银私人客户数据同步印证了这一防御化倾向。管理规模4.7万亿美元的私人客户当前股票仓位为66.2%，现金配置降至历史低位9.4%，但过去四周对债券的流入已创5月以来新高，重点增持投资级债券、市政债及通胀保值债券（TIPS）ETF，同时减持公用事业、医疗及REITs ETF。</p><h2 id=\"bd570c0\">极端多头定价：市场共识脆弱，逆向风险正在集聚</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银牛熊指标升至9.7，从9.5进一步攀升，多个分项指标呈现极端多头信号：对冲基金仓位百分位达84%，股票流量百分位高达92%，基金经理调查定位百分位更达100%。报告指出，<strong>当前投资者的共识仓位建立在"无宏观硬着陆、无美联储加息、无AI资本开支削减、民主党不横扫国会"这四大假设之上，整体呈现"无惧"格局。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而逆向信号正在浮现。全球82%的股票市场指数处于超买状态，接近88%的广度规则卖出阈值，其中仅中国、印度、巴西等少数市场尚未触发超买信号。风险资产整个夏季在无明显领涨主线的情况下缓步攀升，主要依靠仓位惯性驱动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银策略团队点出两大潜在"翻转催化剂"：<strong>一是美伊冲突走向妥协，可能触发油价最后一跌，令大宗商品回调；二是若共和党在中期选举中丢失参议院甚至德克萨斯州州长席位，市场将解读为选民将控制通胀与生活成本置于减税与放松监管之上，届时EPS预期见顶的交易窗口将随之开启。</strong></p><h2 id=\"f2e834dc\">全球央行转向加息，政策对冲成新主线</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在宏观背景层面，美银报告记录了全球货币政策的重要转折。过去三个月，全球央行共完成12次降息与13次加息，净方向已转为收紧；美银预测年内还将有17次加息对4次降息。本周最引人注目的是，"泡沫化"的韩国完成第二次连续加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银认为，各国央行加息有助于配合美国财政部的国债回购与外汇干预操作，共同压制长端利率。这一"准量化宽松"框架在政策落地后，可能产生两方面资产配置效应：削减美元敞口，同时增加黄金配置。这一逻辑也与本周黄金创下自2025年10月以来最大流入记录相互印证。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">年初至今资产回报榜单显示，大宗商品以61.8%的涨幅高居榜首，原油上涨44.4%，金价上涨5.9%，而比特币跌幅达10.5%，30年期美债下跌1.9%，政府债券整体下跌1.1%。美银策略团队继续推荐持有天然资源ETF（GNR）作为对冲政策与政治风险的工具。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>今夜，沃什能否拯救美债？或决定AI牛市命运</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n今夜，沃什能否拯救美债？或决定AI牛市命运\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-28 15:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美银警告，长端美债收益率正主导全球泡沫，成AI牛市“阿喀琉斯之踵”。今夜杰克逊霍尔会议迎控利率关键一搏，沃什演讲的"成功剧本"是实现收益率曲线牛市平坦化——即通过对通胀释放可信的鹰派信号锚定短端，同时对长端债券释放鸽派暗示，为财政部的国债回购计划提供支撑。一旦失败，全球资产将面临剧烈重估。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银证券首席策略师Michael Hartnett警告，美债长端收益率走势正成为当前全球资产定价的核心变量——<strong>债市在"主导"泡沫，而非跟随泡沫。今夜，美联储主席沃什将在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲，市场将其视为稳住长端利率的关键一搏。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银在8月28日的《Flow Show》报告中表示，<strong>沃什此番演讲的"成功剧本"是实现收益率曲线牛市平坦化——即通过对通胀释放可信的鹰派信号锚定短端，同时对长端债券释放鸽派暗示，为财政部的国债回购计划提供支撑。</strong>若此番操作成功穿针引线，风险资产与美元有望同步反弹。然而一旦政策沟通失败，10年期美债收益率将突破4.7%、30年期突破5.3%的8月19日干预警戒线，美元走软，防御性资产将跑赢周期股与久期资产。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银的牛熊指标本周进一步攀升至9.7，继续深陷"极端做多"区域，5月26日触发的卖出信号迄今标普500指数仍上涨2.8%。与此同时，全球82%的股票市场指数当前处于"超买"状态，距离触发广度规则卖出信号的88%阈值仅一步之遥。资金面上，黄金与加密货币均录得自2025年10月以来最大单周流入，而美股出现五周来首度净流出。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31647639f4e4982671ba1e029e3050a0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"292\"/></p><h2 id=\"ai\">债市主导：长端收益率是AI牛市的阿喀琉斯之踵</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银策略团队在报告中明确指出，当前市场逻辑的核心命题是"债市主导泡沫，而非泡沫主导债市"。<strong>这一判断直接决定了科技板块的命运：AI基础设施建设方（半导体，以SOX指数为代表）与AI直接受益方（"壮丽七雄"MAGS）相对AI应用方（医疗XLV、金融XLF）的跑输格局，只有在30年期美债收益率回落至5%以下后方能逆转。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银进一步阐明了压制长端收益率的政策必要性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其一，<strong>科技巨头的AI资本开支热潮需要低成本融资环境支撑</strong>——报告指出，自美联储2025年10月降息以来，"壮丽七雄"股价几乎原地踏步，标志着新生债券反弹的终结。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其二，<strong>若消费者因担忧40万亿美元国家债务令政府在下次危机中无力救市，而被迫大幅提升预防性储蓄，则将对消费构成系统性压制。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在此背景下，<strong>美银将当前政策定性为"准量化宽松/收益率曲线控制"新阶段</strong>，认为这一机制旨在同时维系经济繁荣与政治资本。值得注意的是，财政部国债回购计划将于11月4日到期，距美国中期选举仅差一天。</p><h2 id=\"2a891893\">资金流向：黄金加密领跑，美股现压力信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至8月26日当周，全球资金流向呈现明显分化。债券继续获得170亿美元流入，创连续70周正流入纪录；黄金录得73亿美元流入，为2025年10月以来最大单周流入；加密货币吸引32亿美元，同样为2025年10月以来新高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此形成对比的是，美股出现五周来首次净流出（44亿美元），高收益债券也录得4月以来最大单周流出（7亿美元）。分板块来看，科技板块流入46亿美元为近四周最高，大宗商品相关的材料板块流入42亿美元为3月以来最大；而医疗保健流出11亿美元，为3月以来最大单周流出。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eafbeaab5f2ce392efe44e5414851fea\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"392\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银私人客户数据同步印证了这一防御化倾向。管理规模4.7万亿美元的私人客户当前股票仓位为66.2%，现金配置降至历史低位9.4%，但过去四周对债券的流入已创5月以来新高，重点增持投资级债券、市政债及通胀保值债券（TIPS）ETF，同时减持公用事业、医疗及REITs ETF。</p><h2 id=\"bd570c0\">极端多头定价：市场共识脆弱，逆向风险正在集聚</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银牛熊指标升至9.7，从9.5进一步攀升，多个分项指标呈现极端多头信号：对冲基金仓位百分位达84%，股票流量百分位高达92%，基金经理调查定位百分位更达100%。报告指出，<strong>当前投资者的共识仓位建立在"无宏观硬着陆、无美联储加息、无AI资本开支削减、民主党不横扫国会"这四大假设之上，整体呈现"无惧"格局。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而逆向信号正在浮现。全球82%的股票市场指数处于超买状态，接近88%的广度规则卖出阈值，其中仅中国、印度、巴西等少数市场尚未触发超买信号。风险资产整个夏季在无明显领涨主线的情况下缓步攀升，主要依靠仓位惯性驱动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银策略团队点出两大潜在"翻转催化剂"：<strong>一是美伊冲突走向妥协，可能触发油价最后一跌，令大宗商品回调；二是若共和党在中期选举中丢失参议院甚至德克萨斯州州长席位，市场将解读为选民将控制通胀与生活成本置于减税与放松监管之上，届时EPS预期见顶的交易窗口将随之开启。</strong></p><h2 id=\"f2e834dc\">全球央行转向加息，政策对冲成新主线</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在宏观背景层面，美银报告记录了全球货币政策的重要转折。过去三个月，全球央行共完成12次降息与13次加息，净方向已转为收紧；美银预测年内还将有17次加息对4次降息。本周最引人注目的是，"泡沫化"的韩国完成第二次连续加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银认为，各国央行加息有助于配合美国财政部的国债回购与外汇干预操作，共同压制长端利率。这一"准量化宽松"框架在政策落地后，可能产生两方面资产配置效应：削减美元敞口，同时增加黄金配置。这一逻辑也与本周黄金创下自2025年10月以来最大流入记录相互印证。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">年初至今资产回报榜单显示，大宗商品以61.8%的涨幅高居榜首，原油上涨44.4%，金价上涨5.9%，而比特币跌幅达10.5%，30年期美债下跌1.9%，政府债券整体下跌1.1%。美银策略团队继续推荐持有天然资源ETF（GNR）作为对冲政策与政治风险的工具。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2ced04ddb827bfc6052d582d3f0ecc1","relate_stocks":{"QQQM":"NASDAQ100指数ETF-Invesco","LIAJ":"LifeX 2053 Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETF","UTWY":"US Treasury 20 Year Bond ETF","DMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER DEC ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MUB":"美国市政债ETF-iShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","03086":"华夏纳指",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SGOV":"iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","VCIT":"美国中期公司债-Vanguard","USHY":"iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF","NGHT":"Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark 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Show》报告中表示，沃什此番演讲的\"成功剧本\"是实现收益率曲线牛市平坦化——即通过对通胀释放可信的鹰派信号锚定短端，同时对长端债券释放鸽派暗示，为财政部的国债回购计划提供支撑。若此番操作成功穿针引线，风险资产与美元有望同步反弹。然而一旦政策沟通失败，10年期美债收益率将突破4.7%、30年期突破5.3%的8月19日干预警戒线，美元走软，防御性资产将跑赢周期股与久期资产。美银的牛熊指标本周进一步攀升至9.7，继续深陷\"极端做多\"区域，5月26日触发的卖出信号迄今标普500指数仍上涨2.8%。与此同时，全球82%的股票市场指数当前处于\"超买\"状态，距离触发广度规则卖出信号的88%阈值仅一步之遥。资金面上，黄金与加密货币均录得自2025年10月以来最大单周流入，而美股出现五周来首度净流出。债市主导：长端收益率是AI牛市的阿喀琉斯之踵美银策略团队在报告中明确指出，当前市场逻辑的核心命题是\"债市主导泡沫，而非泡沫主导债市\"。这一判断直接决定了科技板块的命运：AI基础设施建设方（半导体，以SOX指数为代表）与AI直接受益方（\"壮丽七雄\"MAGS）相对AI应用方（医疗XLV、金融XLF）的跑输格局，只有在30年期美债收益率回落至5%以下后方能逆转。美银进一步阐明了压制长端收益率的政策必要性。其一，科技巨头的AI资本开支热潮需要低成本融资环境支撑——报告指出，自美联储2025年10月降息以来，\"壮丽七雄\"股价几乎原地踏步，标志着新生债券反弹的终结。其二，若消费者因担忧40万亿美元国家债务令政府在下次危机中无力救市，而被迫大幅提升预防性储蓄，则将对消费构成系统性压制。在此背景下，美银将当前政策定性为\"准量化宽松/收益率曲线控制\"新阶段，认为这一机制旨在同时维系经济繁荣与政治资本。值得注意的是，财政部国债回购计划将于11月4日到期，距美国中期选举仅差一天。资金流向：黄金加密领跑，美股现压力信号截至8月26日当周，全球资金流向呈现明显分化。债券继续获得170亿美元流入，创连续70周正流入纪录；黄金录得73亿美元流入，为2025年10月以来最大单周流入；加密货币吸引32亿美元，同样为2025年10月以来新高。与此形成对比的是，美股出现五周来首次净流出（44亿美元），高收益债券也录得4月以来最大单周流出（7亿美元）。分板块来看，科技板块流入46亿美元为近四周最高，大宗商品相关的材料板块流入42亿美元为3月以来最大；而医疗保健流出11亿美元，为3月以来最大单周流出。美银私人客户数据同步印证了这一防御化倾向。管理规模4.7万亿美元的私人客户当前股票仓位为66.2%，现金配置降至历史低位9.4%，但过去四周对债券的流入已创5月以来新高，重点增持投资级债券、市政债及通胀保值债券（TIPS）ETF，同时减持公用事业、医疗及REITs 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