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- 南山巴菲特特南山巴菲特特
  ·05-22
  $英特尔(INTC)$ 英特尔画饼最大的一是cpu重回AI核心叙事，二是代工业务。那英特尔的代工业务能否三年内追上台积电？基本不可能。芯片代工最重要看三方面：制程，良率，产能。制程：号称2nm的18A实际上单位芯片密度Mtr只相当于台积电N3的水平，别被名字欺骗了产能：建fab三年起步，英特尔现在没有扩产，产能就不可能在三年内追上台积电良率：管理层透露良率在50-60%左右，还在爬坡阶段，大规模商用还需要一段时间。而台积电N3已经是成熟的工艺，N2的良率据说也有60% 芯片代工是赢家通吃的行业，英特尔想在几年内追上台积电几乎不可能，所以英特尔大大部份都是内部代工其cpu，外部代工大概率只能因为政治因素接一些小单不过还是看好英特尔，一是虽然代工业务要追上台积电极其困难，但是有故事可讲，有故事就有价格弹性。二是cpu重回ai核心叙事，是英特尔增长的基本盘操作方面长期看多，但是不宜过于激进
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- 南山巴菲特特南山巴菲特特
  ·05-05
  记录一下今年的两个翻倍股
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