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木雨四道风5
IP属地：北京
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木雨四道风5
木雨四道风5
·
03-27
自己抄自己，吹起来眼睛不带眨的
存储抛售是错杀？大摩：传统周期卖出逻辑不适用，TurboQuant恐慌是认知偏差！
摩根士丹利报告指出，存储芯片股近期因谷歌TurboQuant技术引发的需求担忧遭遇抛售，但这一担忧被过度放大。该技术旨在扩展模型能力而非削减存储采购，对存储市场并无实质性影响。AI已令DRAM供应从松弛转为紧缺，PC与智能手机生产均受内存制约，存储已成为AI基础设施扩张的核心瓶颈。该行认为，当前估值下的悲观情绪被过度放大，供需紧张态势料将持续数年。
存储抛售是错杀？大摩：传统周期卖出逻辑不适用，TurboQuant恐慌是认知偏差！
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木雨四道风5
木雨四道风5
·
03-26
吹吧就，看看今年的市场情况，还100w，有50w都算赢了
【券商聚焦】华创证券维持零跑汽车(09863)“强推”评级 指公司处上行周期
金吾财讯 | 华创证券发布研报指，零跑汽车 2025年第四季度净利润3.6亿元，创下季度新高，全年实现利润转正。零跑汽车4Q25营收为210亿元（人民币），同比增长56%；毛利率为15.1%，同比提升1.8个百分点。基于以上分析，华创证券维持对零跑汽车“强推”评级。该行结合公司近期财务与销量情况，调整了未来几年盈利预测，预计2026-2028年归母净利润分别为51.4亿元、75.2亿元和85.2亿元（人民币）。
【券商聚焦】华创证券维持零跑汽车(09863)“强推”评级 指公司处上行周期
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木雨四道风5
木雨四道风5
·
03-24
$小米集团-W(01810)$
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木雨四道风5
木雨四道风5
·
03-20
xjb写
新款小米SU7，“融冰”比销量更重要
3月19日，在小米春季发布会上，新款小米SU7正式上市，售价区间21.99万至30.39万元。但新款小米SU7则是在今年1月7日就可以进行小订了。如果新款小米SU7顺利完成了此任务，带动小米汽车重回2024年的“火热”，在短期内无疑有助于其完成今年的销量目标。当然，“破圈”的前提是新款小米SU7成功建立良好的口碑，赢得消费者更多的信任。
新款小米SU7，“融冰”比销量更重要
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木雨四道风5
木雨四道风5
·
03-12
$小米集团-W(01810)$
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木雨四道风5
木雨四道风5
·
02-03
$小米集团-W(01810)$
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木雨四道风5
木雨四道风5
·
01-30
$赛力斯(601127)$
舒服了加仓
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木雨四道风5
木雨四道风5
·
01-22
$小米集团-W(01810)$
拜拜了，20再见
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木雨四道风5
木雨四道风5
·
01-19
$小米集团-W(01810)$
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木雨四道风5
木雨四道风5
·
01-14
$小米集团-W(01810)$
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justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，<strong>市场对资本开支上升、需求破坏及谷歌内存优化技术等利空因素的担忧被过度解读</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于谷歌TurboQuant内存优化技术，摩根士丹利分析师Joseph Moore认为其属于渐进式演进，<strong>目的在于扩展上下文窗口、提升模型能力，而非削减存储需求，对存储市场基本没有实质性影响。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1424086571\">谷歌TurboQuant技术冲击被过度解读</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告专门回应了近期引发存储股下跌的谷歌“TurboQuant”内存优化技术。谷歌介绍了一种针对键值缓存（KV Cache）的数据压缩算法，并于近日宣布即将推出。<strong>市场广泛流传“谷歌将内存使用量降低6倍”的说法，导致存储股再度承压。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利在与业内人士沟通后认为，这属于渐进式技术演进，对存储需求基本没有实质性影响。报告解释称，KV Cache通常存储于高带宽内存中，其容量固定无法改变；若需额外缓存卸载，通常转移至机架内18TB的LPDDR5内存，同样容量固定。更高效的KV Cache使用对第三层存储（SSD或HDD）可能有一定影响，但业内人士普遍反映，<strong>相关改进主要用于扩展上下文窗口、提升模型能力，而非削减存储成本。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告还援引谷歌自身案例指出，Gemini 1.5 Pro曾测试1000万token上下文窗口并取得良好效果，但因推理成本过高而未发布。随着类似优化技术降低成本，预计将被用于支持更高智能、更高算力的产品，而非减少存储需求。</p><h2 id=\"id_3529761704\">AI吞噬产能，存储成为算力扩张瓶颈</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利报告表示，<strong>此轮存储周期与历史规律存在本质差异</strong>。报告指出，AI对DRAM的消耗已大到令其他终端市场出现供应短缺——PC和智能手机的生产均受到内存供应不足的制约。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前三年市场普遍认为DRAM供应存在松弛空间，但这一缓冲已经消失。AI数据中心对高带宽内存（HBM）的需求持续攀升，HBM4的复杂性将进一步吸收产能，而Rubin Ultra平台明年上线后相关内存容量需求将翻倍。与此同时，机架用低功耗DDR5及企业级存储需求同样呈爆发式增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利还指出，AI资本开支增速超过50%，且随着AI在整体支出中占比持续扩大，这一趋势每年都在强化。更高的资本开支固然会带来更多供给，但这并非传统意义上由智能手机和服务器市场3%至5%增长驱动的供给扩张，其量级不可同日而语。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>报告援引OpenAI暂停旗下AI视频生成应用Sora一事，作为算力供给不足的佐证</strong>。摩根士丹利认为，这一事件清晰印证了其投资主题——<strong>在token数量每周以两位数速度增长的背景下，算力供给严重不足，需求远超供给</strong>。视频生成对存储和HDD的需求极为密集，存储短缺可能也是Sora暂停的因素之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告指出，<strong>对于需求旺盛到无法被完全满足的商品而言，在当前估值水平下很难持过度悲观的立场。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3505269910\">美光上看520美元，SanDisk目标690美元</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>摩根士丹利对美光科技维持超配评级，目标价520美元</strong>，对应约25倍穿越周期每股收益21美元，较当前股价382.09美元有约36%上行空间。牛市情景下目标价为700美元（28倍穿越周期EPS 25美元），熊市情景下目标价为240美元。该行预测美光2026财年GAAP营收达1104.89亿美元，非GAAP每股收益59.36美元，非GAAP毛利率77.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>对于SanDisk，摩根士丹利目标价690美元</strong>，对应23倍穿越周期EPS 30美元，较当前股价677.86美元上行约1.8%。牛市情景目标价875美元，熊市情景350美元。该行预测SanDisk 2026财年GAAP营收154.99亿美元，非GAAP每股收益41.09美元，非GAAP毛利率60.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告指出，两家公司在当前盈利水平下的年化自由现金流可达各自市值的15%至25%。即便考虑到周期性因素，两年以上的高盈利持续期已足以支撑股价实质性上涨。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>存储抛售是错杀？大摩：传统周期卖出逻辑不适用，TurboQuant恐慌是认知偏差！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n存储抛售是错杀？大摩：传统周期卖出逻辑不适用，TurboQuant恐慌是认知偏差！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-26 23:35 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3768490><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利报告指出，存储芯片股近期因谷歌TurboQuant技术引发的需求担忧遭遇抛售，但这一担忧被过度放大。该技术旨在扩展模型能力而非削减存储采购，对存储市场并无实质性影响。AI已令DRAM供应从松弛转为紧缺，PC与智能手机生产均受内存制约，存储已成为AI基础设施扩张的核心瓶颈。该行认为，当前估值下的悲观情绪被过度放大，供需紧张态势料将持续数年。美国存储芯片股近期因谷歌TurboQuant内存...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3768490\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU0496365809.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC (Q)","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","LU1196500208.SGD":"NORDEA STABLE RETURN \"HB\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc 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Moore认为其属于渐进式演进，目的在于扩展上下文窗口、提升模型能力，而非削减存储需求，对存储市场基本没有实质性影响。谷歌TurboQuant技术冲击被过度解读报告专门回应了近期引发存储股下跌的谷歌“TurboQuant”内存优化技术。谷歌介绍了一种针对键值缓存（KV Cache）的数据压缩算法，并于近日宣布即将推出。市场广泛流传“谷歌将内存使用量降低6倍”的说法，导致存储股再度承压。摩根士丹利在与业内人士沟通后认为，这属于渐进式技术演进，对存储需求基本没有实质性影响。报告解释称，KV Cache通常存储于高带宽内存中，其容量固定无法改变；若需额外缓存卸载，通常转移至机架内18TB的LPDDR5内存，同样容量固定。更高效的KV Cache使用对第三层存储（SSD或HDD）可能有一定影响，但业内人士普遍反映，相关改进主要用于扩展上下文窗口、提升模型能力，而非削减存储成本。报告还援引谷歌自身案例指出，Gemini 1.5 Pro曾测试1000万token上下文窗口并取得良好效果，但因推理成本过高而未发布。随着类似优化技术降低成本，预计将被用于支持更高智能、更高算力的产品，而非减少存储需求。AI吞噬产能，存储成为算力扩张瓶颈摩根士丹利报告表示，此轮存储周期与历史规律存在本质差异。报告指出，AI对DRAM的消耗已大到令其他终端市场出现供应短缺——PC和智能手机的生产均受到内存供应不足的制约。此前三年市场普遍认为DRAM供应存在松弛空间，但这一缓冲已经消失。AI数据中心对高带宽内存（HBM）的需求持续攀升，HBM4的复杂性将进一步吸收产能，而Rubin Ultra平台明年上线后相关内存容量需求将翻倍。与此同时，机架用低功耗DDR5及企业级存储需求同样呈爆发式增长。摩根士丹利还指出，AI资本开支增速超过50%，且随着AI在整体支出中占比持续扩大，这一趋势每年都在强化。更高的资本开支固然会带来更多供给，但这并非传统意义上由智能手机和服务器市场3%至5%增长驱动的供给扩张，其量级不可同日而语。报告援引OpenAI暂停旗下AI视频生成应用Sora一事，作为算力供给不足的佐证。摩根士丹利认为，这一事件清晰印证了其投资主题——在token数量每周以两位数速度增长的背景下，算力供给严重不足，需求远超供给。视频生成对存储和HDD的需求极为密集，存储短缺可能也是Sora暂停的因素之一。报告指出，对于需求旺盛到无法被完全满足的商品而言，在当前估值水平下很难持过度悲观的立场。美光上看520美元，SanDisk目标690美元摩根士丹利对美光科技维持超配评级，目标价520美元，对应约25倍穿越周期每股收益21美元，较当前股价382.09美元有约36%上行空间。牛市情景下目标价为700美元（28倍穿越周期EPS 25美元），熊市情景下目标价为240美元。该行预测美光2026财年GAAP营收达1104.89亿美元，非GAAP每股收益59.36美元，非GAAP毛利率77.8%。对于SanDisk，摩根士丹利目标价690美元，对应23倍穿越周期EPS 30美元，较当前股价677.86美元上行约1.8%。牛市情景目标价875美元，熊市情景350美元。该行预测SanDisk 2026财年GAAP营收154.99亿美元，非GAAP每股收益41.09美元，非GAAP毛利率60.2%。报告指出，两家公司在当前盈利水平下的年化自由现金流可达各自市值的15%至25%。即便考虑到周期性因素，两年以上的高盈利持续期已足以支撑股价实质性上涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STX":2,"SNDK":2,"WDC":2,"MU":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546675231687408,"gmtCreate":1774490284571,"gmtModify":1774490287258,"author":{"id":"4197380509417102","authorId":"4197380509417102","name":"木雨四道风5","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4197380509417102","idStr":"4197380509417102"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"吹吧就，看看今年的市场情况，还100w，有50w都算赢了","listText":"吹吧就，看看今年的市场情况，还100w，有50w都算赢了","text":"吹吧就，看看今年的市场情况，还100w，有50w都算赢了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546675231687408","repostId":"2622028874","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2622028874","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"「金吾财讯」以精准用户需求为切入点，打造一站式港美股投资细分领域品牌。依托战略合作伙伴凤凰网财经，将港美股内容传播到全球华人圈。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"金吾财讯","id":"1086022552","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a93586c3b023ec6ebfed568990555c"},"pubTimestamp":1774423430,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2622028874?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-25 15:23","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"【券商聚焦】华创证券维持零跑汽车(09863)“强推”评级 指公司处上行周期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2622028874","media":"金吾财讯","summary":"金吾财讯 | 华创证券发布研报指，零跑汽车 2025年第四季度净利润3.6亿元，创下季度新高，全年实现利润转正。零跑汽车4Q25营收为210亿元（人民币），同比增长56%；毛利率为15.1%，同比提升1.8个百分点。基于以上分析，华创证券维持对零跑汽车“强推”评级。该行结合公司近期财务与销量情况，调整了未来几年盈利预测，预计2026-2028年归母净利润分别为51.4亿元、75.2亿元和85.2亿元（人民币）。","content":"<html><body><p>金吾财讯 | 华创证券发布研报指，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09863\">零跑汽车</a>(09863)2025年第四季度净利润3.6亿元，创下季度新高，全年实现利润转正。报告认为，公司正处在上行周期，核心逻辑在于密集的新车周期即将开启，以及海外出口业务的稳步拓展，这有望为后续销量增长提供支撑。零跑汽车4Q25营收为210亿元（人民币），同比增长56%；毛利率为15.1%，同比提升1.8个百分点。季度销量达20.1万辆，同比增长66%。费用控制方面，受益于规模效应，管理和研发费用率环比下降。公司展现出强成本控制能力。</p><p>业务层面，新车周期是重要催化剂。公司计划自2026年3月起密集推出A、D系列全新车型，包括小型SUV A10、大型SUV D19、A05及首款MPV D99，以完善产品<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>。报告预计，若新车型延续高性价比定价策略，公司2026年销量有望达到100万辆，同比增长68%。</p><p>海外业务成为新的增长引擎。2026年1月公司出口销量达1.5万辆，同比增长5.7倍。公司持续推进海外本地化布局，如西班牙CKD项目预计2026年10月投产。目前海外销售服务网点约900家，并计划进一步拓展欧洲、南美市场。报告预测公司2026年出口目标为10-15万辆，并通过零跑国际股权收益、碳积分等方式贡献盈利。</p><p>基于以上分析，华创证券维持对零跑汽车“强推”评级。该行结合公司近期财务与销量情况，调整了未来几年盈利预测，预计2026-2028年归母净利润分别为51.4亿元、75.2亿元和85.2亿元（人民币）。采用相对估值法，给予公司2026年15倍市盈率，对应目标价61.68港元。</p><p>风险包括：汽车行业景气度下滑、市场竞争加剧及新车型销量不及预期。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【券商聚焦】华创证券维持零跑汽车(09863)“强推”评级 指公司处上行周期</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【券商聚焦】华创证券维持零跑汽车(09863)“强推”评级 指公司处上行周期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086022552\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a93586c3b023ec6ebfed568990555c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金吾财讯 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-25 15:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>金吾财讯 | 华创证券发布研报指，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09863\">零跑汽车</a>(09863)2025年第四季度净利润3.6亿元，创下季度新高，全年实现利润转正。报告认为，公司正处在上行周期，核心逻辑在于密集的新车周期即将开启，以及海外出口业务的稳步拓展，这有望为后续销量增长提供支撑。零跑汽车4Q25营收为210亿元（人民币），同比增长56%；毛利率为15.1%，同比提升1.8个百分点。季度销量达20.1万辆，同比增长66%。费用控制方面，受益于规模效应，管理和研发费用率环比下降。公司展现出强成本控制能力。</p><p>业务层面，新车周期是重要催化剂。公司计划自2026年3月起密集推出A、D系列全新车型，包括小型SUV A10、大型SUV D19、A05及首款MPV D99，以完善产品<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>。报告预计，若新车型延续高性价比定价策略，公司2026年销量有望达到100万辆，同比增长68%。</p><p>海外业务成为新的增长引擎。2026年1月公司出口销量达1.5万辆，同比增长5.7倍。公司持续推进海外本地化布局，如西班牙CKD项目预计2026年10月投产。目前海外销售服务网点约900家，并计划进一步拓展欧洲、南美市场。报告预测公司2026年出口目标为10-15万辆，并通过零跑国际股权收益、碳积分等方式贡献盈利。</p><p>基于以上分析，华创证券维持对零跑汽车“强推”评级。该行结合公司近期财务与销量情况，调整了未来几年盈利预测，预计2026-2028年归母净利润分别为51.4亿元、75.2亿元和85.2亿元（人民币）。采用相对估值法，给予公司2026年15倍市盈率，对应目标价61.68港元。</p><p>风险包括：汽车行业景气度下滑、市场竞争加剧及新车型销量不及预期。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.szfiu.com/news/20200915/NjdlOTQyZDE5NzA3MzU4ZTU3YTk2ZGQ0MjAwMDE4NjcyODIz.jpg","relate_stocks":{"161027":"证券","09863":"零跑汽车"},"source_url":"1977215","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2622028874","content_text":"金吾财讯 | 华创证券发布研报指，零跑汽车(09863)2025年第四季度净利润3.6亿元，创下季度新高，全年实现利润转正。报告认为，公司正处在上行周期，核心逻辑在于密集的新车周期即将开启，以及海外出口业务的稳步拓展，这有望为后续销量增长提供支撑。零跑汽车4Q25营收为210亿元（人民币），同比增长56%；毛利率为15.1%，同比提升1.8个百分点。季度销量达20.1万辆，同比增长66%。费用控制方面，受益于规模效应，管理和研发费用率环比下降。公司展现出强成本控制能力。业务层面，新车周期是重要催化剂。公司计划自2026年3月起密集推出A、D系列全新车型，包括小型SUV A10、大型SUV D19、A05及首款MPV D99，以完善产品矩阵。报告预计，若新车型延续高性价比定价策略，公司2026年销量有望达到100万辆，同比增长68%。海外业务成为新的增长引擎。2026年1月公司出口销量达1.5万辆，同比增长5.7倍。公司持续推进海外本地化布局，如西班牙CKD项目预计2026年10月投产。目前海外销售服务网点约900家，并计划进一步拓展欧洲、南美市场。报告预测公司2026年出口目标为10-15万辆，并通过零跑国际股权收益、碳积分等方式贡献盈利。基于以上分析，华创证券维持对零跑汽车“强推”评级。该行结合公司近期财务与销量情况，调整了未来几年盈利预测，预计2026-2028年归母净利润分别为51.4亿元、75.2亿元和85.2亿元（人民币）。采用相对估值法，给予公司2026年15倍市盈率，对应目标价61.68港元。风险包括：汽车行业景气度下滑、市场竞争加剧及新车型销量不及预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161027":1.5,"09863":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":34,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546062165697760,"gmtCreate":1774325332589,"gmtModify":1774325333849,"author":{"id":"4197380509417102","authorId":"4197380509417102","name":"木雨四道风5","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4197380509417102","idStr":"4197380509417102"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546062165697760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544704597403016,"gmtCreate":1773993907631,"gmtModify":1773993910180,"author":{"id":"4197380509417102","authorId":"4197380509417102","name":"木雨四道风5","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4197380509417102","idStr":"4197380509417102"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"xjb写","listText":"xjb写","text":"xjb写","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544704597403016","repostId":"2620378807","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2620378807","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1773988980,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2620378807?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-20 14:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"新款小米SU7，“融冰”比销量更重要","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620378807","media":"虎嗅网","summary":"3月19日，在小米春季发布会上，新款小米SU7正式上市，售价区间21.99万至30.39万元。但新款小米SU7则是在今年1月7日就可以进行小订了。如果新款小米SU7顺利完成了此任务，带动小米汽车重回2024年的“火热”，在短期内无疑有助于其完成今年的销量目标。当然，“破圈”的前提是新款小米SU7成功建立良好的口碑，赢得消费者更多的信任。","content":"<html><body><p>作者|王亚骏</p><p>上市34分钟，锁单1.5万。这是新款<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>SU7上市后交出的第一份成绩单。</p><p>3月19日，在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米</a>春季发布会上，新款<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/81810\">小米</a>SU7正式上市，售价区间21.99万至30.39万元。王传福、李想、何小鹏、王兴兴、张建勇和陈年出席了此次发布会。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>王传福、王兴兴、李想和何小鹏等嘉宾 图源：小米发布会</p><p>雷军对这款车的重视，不只体现在邀请知名企业家来助阵。3月，小米还公布了两位汽车品牌代言人，分别是短跑名将苏炳添和艺人舒淇。此前，小米汽车未曾签约过代言人。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>在发布会上，雷军、舒淇、苏炳添站在新款小米SU7旁边；图源：小米发布会</p><p>在发布会上，雷军称此举是为了“破圈”，让更多人知道这款车。</p><p>得到如此支持力度的新款小米SU7，其成绩是否超越了前辈？相比于销量，这款车还有什么更重要的任务？本期《车圈脉动》Vol.23，来进行解析。</p><p><strong>新款小米SU7，不如初代惊艳</strong></p><p>新款小米SU7的第一份成绩单，并没有超越自己的前辈。</p><p>34分钟锁单1.5万辆，这个数字其实已经足够亮眼。3月18日上市的小鹏P7新版型与新款小米SU7<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002835\">同为</a>轿车，两者的售价区间也存在重合（20.38万至30.18万元），但该车型上市后一直未公布大定数或锁单数。</p><p>不过和初代小米SU7比起来，新车的成绩就稍显逊色了。2024年3月28日，初代小米SU7上市，作为小米旗下的首款车型，它在上市后27分钟拿下了5万大定、24小时拿下了8.9万大定，一时间可谓震惊了整个汽车行业。</p><p>当然，大定和锁单并非同一个概念。前者是指支付较大金额订金（小米的大定定金是5000元），以表达购买意向，如果消费者在犹豫期改变主意（小米的犹豫期是72小时），这笔钱可以退回；而后者是指已经确认车辆具体配置，订单进入生产排期，相当于真正的订单。</p><p>不过我们依然可以将两者进行对比。</p><p>在初代小米SU7上市后不久，华龙证券曾用40%的订单/大定转化率来计算真实的订单数。</p><p>已知初代小米SU7上市后27分钟的成绩是5万大定，按照40%的转化率来计算，便是2万个订单。这个成绩从效率和数量上都优于“34分钟1.5万锁单”。</p><p>此外还要考虑到，初代小米SU7是在2023年12月底的“小米汽车技术发布会”上亮相的，但此后官方始终未开启任何形式的预售、小定或盲订，仅于第二年3月下旬才开放了免费的“品鉴预约”（不可试驾、不收取订金），真正的订单收集是在3月底上市发布会后才开始。但新款小米SU7则是在今年1月7日就可以进行小订了。</p><p>诚然，售价也是影响大定和锁单数的因素之一。但新款小米SU7全系比初代仅贵了4000元，整体未拉开档位级差距，且在三电、底盘、智驾、内饰和安全等方面都做了提升。故而价格因素在此次对比中权重并不大。</p><p><strong>“融冰”比销量更重要</strong></p><p>虽然新款小米SU7的初战成绩不如前辈，但考虑到小米本身的关注度和车型产品力，这款车依然有望在今年的竞争中搏取到可观的销量。</p><p>虎嗅汽车认为，相比于销量，这款车还有一个更重要的任务，便是帮助小米汽车尽快走过“信任修复期”。</p><p>3月17日，雷军在回应热点问题的视频中，对小米汽车过去两年进行了总结：“跌宕起伏，冰火两重天，所取得的成绩远超想象、所受到的关注也不可思议。”</p><p>对于小米汽车而言，去年无疑是水火交融的一年。</p><p>从销量上来看，小米汽车的表现其实足够亮眼。去年，小米共卖出了41.2万辆汽车，同比增长近200%，增速远超大盘。</p><p>但是在去年的3月和10月，小米汽车旗下车型发生了两次重大事故；在5月，小米SU7 Ultra则陷入了“锁马力”和有关碳纤维双风道前舱盖的争议。</p><p>这些事故和争议，为小米汽车引来了海量的安全性质疑，并极大损害了消费者的信任。据知名咨询机构杰兰路发布的研究报告，2025年下半年，小米在“百人青睐指数”方面，“不喜欢”的比例上升约 10 个百分点，“喜欢”比例下降超 10 个百分点，成为统计周期中变化幅度最突出的品牌之一。</p><p>进入2026年后，雷军开始尝试通过直播的形式消解质疑、挽回信任。2月底，他还宣布重建“小米汽车安全顾问委员会”，并向全国各大专院校、科研院所的车辆安全专家，以及曾参与过国家事务调查召回的专家发出邀请，为小米汽车的安全进行多角度评估和把关。</p><p>这些举措固然回应一定效果，但小米能否成功修复信任，还是要看新车型能否在消费者口中建立安全可靠的口碑。</p><p>如果新款小米SU7顺利完成了此任务，带动小米汽车重回2024年的“火热”，在短期内无疑有助于其完成今年的销量目标（55万辆）。回顾去年走势可见，小米汽车的市场表现与其口碑高度联动：声量高涨时订单随之激增，信任受损时销量亦受拖累。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>小米汽车在去年6月后迎来了一波销量上涨，这是得益于小米YU7的发布，但在10月的事故发生后，其销量也出现了回落；数据来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BITA\">易车</a></p><p>从长期来看，这个任务也事关未来小米汽车的整体布局能否顺利推进。</p><p>今年是小米汽车最密集的产品发布期。据36氪报道，除了新款小米SU7外，小米汽车还计划在今年推出三款车，分别是SU7行政版、一款增程五座SUV和一款增程七座SUV。</p><p>在国内<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01490\">车市</a>，增程式SUV与家庭用车联系颇深。而小米在今年的产品规划，可以视为其试图打破“米粉圈层”，进入主流家庭市场的举措。如若成功，无疑可以帮助小米汽车进一步打开增长天花板。</p><p>当然，“破圈”的前提是新款小米SU7成功建立良好的口碑，赢得消费者更多的信任。从这个角度来说，这款新车不容有失。</p></body></html>","source":"ifeng_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>新款小米SU7，“融冰”比销量更重要</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n新款小米SU7，“融冰”比销量更重要\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-20 14:43 北京时间 <a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8reFQSlcVhQ><strong>虎嗅网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者|王亚骏上市34分钟，锁单1.5万。这是新款小米SU7上市后交出的第一份成绩单。3月19日，在小米春季发布会上，新款小米SU7正式上市，售价区间21.99万至30.39万元。王传福、李想、何小鹏、王兴兴、张建勇和陈年出席了此次发布会。王传福、王兴兴、李想和何小鹏等嘉宾 图源：小米发布会雷军对这款车的重视，不只体现在邀请知名企业家来助阵。3月，小米还公布了两位汽车品牌代言人，分别是短跑名将苏炳添...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8reFQSlcVhQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81810":"小米集团-WR","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","LU1328277881.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH FUND \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0456827905.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A (acc) SGD","LU0214875030.USD":"HSBC GIF BRIC EQUITY \"M2C\" (USD) ACC","LU0823397285.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE ASIA EX-JAPAN EQUITY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0314109678.HKD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (HKD) INC","SG9999001093.SGD":"United Greater China Fund A Acc SGD","LU0210526637.USD":"JPM CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0254981946.USD":"HSBC GIF BRIC MARKETS EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0594300179.USD":"FIDELITY CHINA CONSUMER \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0700851271.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS MULTI-ASSET \"A\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8reFQSlcVhQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2620378807","content_text":"作者|王亚骏上市34分钟，锁单1.5万。这是新款小米SU7上市后交出的第一份成绩单。3月19日，在小米春季发布会上，新款小米SU7正式上市，售价区间21.99万至30.39万元。王传福、李想、何小鹏、王兴兴、张建勇和陈年出席了此次发布会。王传福、王兴兴、李想和何小鹏等嘉宾 图源：小米发布会雷军对这款车的重视，不只体现在邀请知名企业家来助阵。3月，小米还公布了两位汽车品牌代言人，分别是短跑名将苏炳添和艺人舒淇。此前，小米汽车未曾签约过代言人。在发布会上，雷军、舒淇、苏炳添站在新款小米SU7旁边；图源：小米发布会在发布会上，雷军称此举是为了“破圈”，让更多人知道这款车。得到如此支持力度的新款小米SU7，其成绩是否超越了前辈？相比于销量，这款车还有什么更重要的任务？本期《车圈脉动》Vol.23，来进行解析。新款小米SU7，不如初代惊艳新款小米SU7的第一份成绩单，并没有超越自己的前辈。34分钟锁单1.5万辆，这个数字其实已经足够亮眼。3月18日上市的小鹏P7新版型与新款小米SU7同为轿车，两者的售价区间也存在重合（20.38万至30.18万元），但该车型上市后一直未公布大定数或锁单数。不过和初代小米SU7比起来，新车的成绩就稍显逊色了。2024年3月28日，初代小米SU7上市，作为小米旗下的首款车型，它在上市后27分钟拿下了5万大定、24小时拿下了8.9万大定，一时间可谓震惊了整个汽车行业。当然，大定和锁单并非同一个概念。前者是指支付较大金额订金（小米的大定定金是5000元），以表达购买意向，如果消费者在犹豫期改变主意（小米的犹豫期是72小时），这笔钱可以退回；而后者是指已经确认车辆具体配置，订单进入生产排期，相当于真正的订单。不过我们依然可以将两者进行对比。在初代小米SU7上市后不久，华龙证券曾用40%的订单/大定转化率来计算真实的订单数。已知初代小米SU7上市后27分钟的成绩是5万大定，按照40%的转化率来计算，便是2万个订单。这个成绩从效率和数量上都优于“34分钟1.5万锁单”。此外还要考虑到，初代小米SU7是在2023年12月底的“小米汽车技术发布会”上亮相的，但此后官方始终未开启任何形式的预售、小定或盲订，仅于第二年3月下旬才开放了免费的“品鉴预约”（不可试驾、不收取订金），真正的订单收集是在3月底上市发布会后才开始。但新款小米SU7则是在今年1月7日就可以进行小订了。诚然，售价也是影响大定和锁单数的因素之一。但新款小米SU7全系比初代仅贵了4000元，整体未拉开档位级差距，且在三电、底盘、智驾、内饰和安全等方面都做了提升。故而价格因素在此次对比中权重并不大。“融冰”比销量更重要虽然新款小米SU7的初战成绩不如前辈，但考虑到小米本身的关注度和车型产品力，这款车依然有望在今年的竞争中搏取到可观的销量。虎嗅汽车认为，相比于销量，这款车还有一个更重要的任务，便是帮助小米汽车尽快走过“信任修复期”。3月17日，雷军在回应热点问题的视频中，对小米汽车过去两年进行了总结：“跌宕起伏，冰火两重天，所取得的成绩远超想象、所受到的关注也不可思议。”对于小米汽车而言，去年无疑是水火交融的一年。从销量上来看，小米汽车的表现其实足够亮眼。去年，小米共卖出了41.2万辆汽车，同比增长近200%，增速远超大盘。但是在去年的3月和10月，小米汽车旗下车型发生了两次重大事故；在5月，小米SU7 Ultra则陷入了“锁马力”和有关碳纤维双风道前舱盖的争议。这些事故和争议，为小米汽车引来了海量的安全性质疑，并极大损害了消费者的信任。据知名咨询机构杰兰路发布的研究报告，2025年下半年，小米在“百人青睐指数”方面，“不喜欢”的比例上升约 10 个百分点，“喜欢”比例下降超 10 个百分点，成为统计周期中变化幅度最突出的品牌之一。进入2026年后，雷军开始尝试通过直播的形式消解质疑、挽回信任。2月底，他还宣布重建“小米汽车安全顾问委员会”，并向全国各大专院校、科研院所的车辆安全专家，以及曾参与过国家事务调查召回的专家发出邀请，为小米汽车的安全进行多角度评估和把关。这些举措固然回应一定效果，但小米能否成功修复信任，还是要看新车型能否在消费者口中建立安全可靠的口碑。如果新款小米SU7顺利完成了此任务，带动小米汽车重回2024年的“火热”，在短期内无疑有助于其完成今年的销量目标（55万辆）。回顾去年走势可见，小米汽车的市场表现与其口碑高度联动：声量高涨时订单随之激增，信任受损时销量亦受拖累。小米汽车在去年6月后迎来了一波销量上涨，这是得益于小米YU7的发布，但在10月的事故发生后，其销量也出现了回落；数据来源：易车从长期来看，这个任务也事关未来小米汽车的整体布局能否顺利推进。今年是小米汽车最密集的产品发布期。据36氪报道，除了新款小米SU7外，小米汽车还计划在今年推出三款车，分别是SU7行政版、一款增程五座SUV和一款增程七座SUV。在国内车市，增程式SUV与家庭用车联系颇深。而小米在今年的产品规划，可以视为其试图打破“米粉圈层”，进入主流家庭市场的举措。如若成功，无疑可以帮助小米汽车进一步打开增长天花板。当然，“破圈”的前提是新款小米SU7成功建立良好的口碑，赢得消费者更多的信任。从这个角度来说，这款新车不容有失。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.6,"XIACY":1.95,"HXXD.SI":0.6,"MIUmain":0.6,"01810":1.95}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":541790209024688,"gmtCreate":1773298575539,"gmtModify":1773298576833,"author":{"id":"4197380509417102","authorId":"4197380509417102","name":"木雨四道风5","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4197380509417102","idStr":"4197380509417102"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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