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tanhz

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- tanhztanhz
  ·05-15
  关于此次回调的核心原因 1. 短期层面：自2026年4月以来芯片板块快速拉升，部分个股年内涨幅翻倍，积累了大量浮盈，获利盘集中兑现引发调整；同时A股当前呈结构性行情，资金从高位算力芯片向低位AI应用赛道切换，叠加此前板块估值处于历史高位、交易拥挤度偏高，进一步放大了短期震荡。 2. 外部层面：美国4月CPI数据超预期反弹，市场对美联储加息预期升温，高利率环境压制了高估值科技股的估值，同时地缘局势不确定性也加剧了资金恐慌情绪，引发全球芯片板块集体回调。中长期逻辑并未破坏当前全球半导体正处于AI技术浪潮与新一轮产业周期的交汇点：生成式AI向应用端延伸驱动全球算力需求持续高增，叠加海外云巨头集体上调资本开支，同时国内半导体国产替代进入攻坚阶段，国产芯片链在政策和资金的双重加持下景气度持续高涨，此次波动只是情绪和估值的阶段性修正，并非产业逻辑的逆转。布局参考建议 1. 尚未入场的观望者，可以等待板块回调至关键支撑位后分批布局，不建议盲目追高； 2. 细分方向优先关注半导体设备、存储芯片、国产AI算力芯片等业绩确定性强、有核心技术支撑的赛道，避开纯概念炒作的标的；
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- tanhztanhz
  ·04-23
  纳斯达克真的不回调吗
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