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小奶龙爸比
小奶龙爸比
·
2022-08-31
当下海底捞业绩复苏是个好机会吗?
常规的财务情况就不多列举了,海底捞本次中期业绩整体来说还是超出预期的,超出预期的主要点在于margin在改善,收入端也体现出了有恢复增长的空间。2022年上半年营收167.6亿/-16.6%,主要是受到疫情以及公司关店影响;净亏损2.7亿元,主要来自于餐厅关停以及疫情影响等产生的长期资产减值损失等,以及管理层采取审慎态度计提的减值损失,合计金额约3.1亿元。如果扣除减值影响,其实海底捞上半年的净利润是四千多万,有一说一在上半年宏观环境和疫情影响下能做到这样其实有点意外。毕竟根据中期报告,3-5月,公司平均每天有200家餐厅暂停营业,这对餐饮行业是致命的打击。那海底捞是如何做到盈利的呢?首先,上半年翻台率为2.9,去年是3.0。对比去年的3.0,今年的2.9其实更具说服力。因为去年的3.0是被新开店所摊薄,很多新门店其实并不那么优质。但今年的2.9是海底捞关店&疫情影响取得的,所以这2.9是很夯实的底部区域,未来再调整门店结构、从疫情管控放松,我觉得翻台率2.9应该已经是海底捞的底部了。那么2.9的翻台率,公司是否可以赚钱?海底捞在业绩会上提到,一家门店盈亏平衡只要做到2点几就可以。这其实和我的测算差不多。算一下海底捞一家火锅门店的单店模型很容易就能知道2.9的翻台率应该是有微利。那如果未来翻台率逐渐提升,业绩的恢复是值得期待的。其次呢,费用端方面,公司也做了不少努力:(1)在业界普遍原材料 涨价压力下,毛利率同比+0.3ppt至58.0%。(2)即便疫情扰动、收入下滑致经营去杠杆效应,员工成本费用率同比-0.4ppt至35.2%。主要受益于单店员工人效优化及灵活用工等。(3)物业租金及相关部分为2.1亿元,占比1.2%/+0.2%,主要因为2020年新开餐厅的物业管理费优惠逐步到期,以及同比收入减少影响。这部分费用就没办法再缩减了。再者,现金流方面,2022 H1公
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当下海底捞业绩复苏是个好机会吗?
小奶龙爸比
小奶龙爸比
·
2022-08-02
$尚乘数科(HKD)$
这股可以卖空吗
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H1公","text":"常规的财务情况就不多列举了,海底捞本次中期业绩整体来说还是超出预期的,超出预期的主要点在于margin在改善,收入端也体现出了有恢复增长的空间。2022年上半年营收167.6亿/-16.6%,主要是受到疫情以及公司关店影响;净亏损2.7亿元,主要来自于餐厅关停以及疫情影响等产生的长期资产减值损失等,以及管理层采取审慎态度计提的减值损失,合计金额约3.1亿元。如果扣除减值影响,其实海底捞上半年的净利润是四千多万,有一说一在上半年宏观环境和疫情影响下能做到这样其实有点意外。毕竟根据中期报告,3-5月,公司平均每天有200家餐厅暂停营业,这对餐饮行业是致命的打击。那海底捞是如何做到盈利的呢?首先,上半年翻台率为2.9,去年是3.0。对比去年的3.0,今年的2.9其实更具说服力。因为去年的3.0是被新开店所摊薄,很多新门店其实并不那么优质。但今年的2.9是海底捞关店&疫情影响取得的,所以这2.9是很夯实的底部区域,未来再调整门店结构、从疫情管控放松,我觉得翻台率2.9应该已经是海底捞的底部了。那么2.9的翻台率,公司是否可以赚钱?海底捞在业绩会上提到,一家门店盈亏平衡只要做到2点几就可以。这其实和我的测算差不多。算一下海底捞一家火锅门店的单店模型很容易就能知道2.9的翻台率应该是有微利。那如果未来翻台率逐渐提升,业绩的恢复是值得期待的。其次呢,费用端方面,公司也做了不少努力:(1)在业界普遍原材料 涨价压力下,毛利率同比+0.3ppt至58.0%。(2)即便疫情扰动、收入下滑致经营去杠杆效应,员工成本费用率同比-0.4ppt至35.2%。主要受益于单店员工人效优化及灵活用工等。(3)物业租金及相关部分为2.1亿元,占比1.2%/+0.2%,主要因为2020年新开餐厅的物业管理费优惠逐步到期,以及同比收入减少影响。这部分费用就没办法再缩减了。再者,现金流方面,2022 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