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Fire Phoenix
Fire Phoenix
·
09-22 18:03
支持理想，汽车供应链不能被卡脖子
从宁德时代转向自研，理想用什么让用户买单？
一辆理想汽车，首批交付搭载宁德时代电池，后续交付换成理想自研电池，消费者会怎么选？按照理想9月7日公布的计划，新一代MEGA、理想i9都将经历这样的切换。对理想来说，多年的电池研发终于 ...
从宁德时代转向自研，理想用什么让用户买单？
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Fire Phoenix
Fire Phoenix
·
09-18
宁德时代自己的钠离子电池目前续航很差，就技术成熟度而言，宁德时代确实不适合转固态电池赛道。而且更重要的是宁德时代目前的产线不适合固态电池，之前的所有投资都会折损，这会影响它的固定资产财报。三，他们不了解广东的竞争节奏和比亚迪的研发和供应链实力，比亚迪的固态电池一定会在27年上市。
对话｜宁德时代首席制造官倪军：会造车不一定会造电池
近日，宁德时代首席制造官倪军在该公司品质全球开放月活动上对蓝鲸汽车记者等表示。在其看来，会造车，不一定会造电池。宁德时代首席制造官倪军以下为对话实录提问：目前行业对固态电池关注度很高，也有车企提出2027年前后开始搭载固态电池。
对话｜宁德时代首席制造官倪军：会造车不一定会造电池
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Fire Phoenix
Fire Phoenix
·
09-16
一鲸落，万物生[强]
宁德时代AH股续跌4%，市场关于车企“去宁化”的焦虑情绪不断蔓延
宁德时代 AH 股续跌 4%，市场关于车企“去宁化”的焦虑情绪不断蔓延。9月初，理想汽车宣布斥资26.5亿元增资欣旺达动力。交易完成后，理想相关主体将合计持股11.17%，成为欣旺达动力第二大股东。与此同时，2026年6月上市的全新一代理想L8，全系采用欣旺达电芯，宁德时代退出该车型的供应名单。电池包由理想与欣旺达合资公司生产，产品由理想定义，制造交给欣旺达。
宁德时代AH股续跌4%，市场关于车企“去宁化”的焦虑情绪不断蔓延
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Fire Phoenix
Fire Phoenix
·
09-15
宁德时代就是安全的？工厂动不动就，你懂的
理想汽车与小米汽车调整动力电池供应商
理想汽车开启新的动力电池战略，从选用宁德时代转向自研技术。新上市的小米澎程N70和N90放弃了SU7和YU7此前选择的宁德时代，改用自家龙甲电池。小米澎程和理想汽车均选择了中创新航、欣旺达来填补份额，采用共研加自产模式。2026年上半年，宁德时代装车量份额提升，比亚迪下降，中创新航和欣旺达份额发生变化。长安、长城、东风、上汽正在推进深度整合。
理想汽车与小米汽车调整动力电池供应商
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Fire Phoenix
Fire Phoenix
·
08-12
我之前就讲过，内部人都套在10块，等待解套中。欢迎有钱庄家入驻[无语]
财报前瞻｜思摩尔国际HNB催化提振预期，股东减持或扰动估值
思摩尔国际将于2026年08月19日盘后披露中期业绩，市场聚焦HNB推进与订单兑现节奏。成长动能主要来自HNB业务推进，市场消息称全年HNB产品销售目标为20.00亿元人民币，但同比数据暂未披露。结合前期股价对政策催化的反应，市场普遍把本季度视作验证HNB落地与客户转化的关键时点，一旦出货与储备订单披露优于预期，收入端弹性或先行体现。
财报前瞻｜思摩尔国际HNB催化提振预期，股东减持或扰动估值
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Fire Phoenix
Fire Phoenix
·
06-01
$宁德时代(300750)$
钠离子电池行驶里程有点水份，还需要进一步试验，别问我怎么知道的
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ACC"},"source_url":"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/hks/20260922/c680166193.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/f0343184bd9b9c963ed02b302442e2b8","article_id":"2669782114","content_text":"一辆理想汽车（LI），首批交付搭载宁德时代（300750）电池，后续交付换成理想自研电池，消费（883434）者会怎么选？按照理想9月7日公布的计划，新一代MEGA、理想i9都将经历这样的切换。对理想来说，多年的电池研发终于进入更大规模的应用阶段。但是对准备下单的消费（883434）者来说，需要重新考虑的一个问题是：换了电池，体验究竟会不会有落差？质量和安全是否值得信任？9月21日上午，理想汽车（LI）举办自研电池媒体沟通会。执行董事兼总裁马东辉、山东理想汽车（LI）电池有限公司董事长刘立国，以及动力电池高级总监、电池研发负责人柳志民回应相关问题。整场沟通会中，理想的管理层想让消费（883434）者理解，自己为什么要深入电芯研发、掌握制造数据，又为什么选择与欣旺达（300207）等企业合作。而消费（883434）者最关心的是，这些变化能否让电池更安全、更耐用，以及出了问题能否得到解决。自研电池，目的是拿到主导权理想汽车（LI）并没有回避外界关于自研电池能否降低成本的关切。马东辉解释，外购电池的价格中，同样包含供应商的研发投入；选择自研，则由理想直接承担这笔费用。理想看重的降本空间，在于通过平台化生产提高产线利用率，通过数据分析减少制造损耗，并优化原材料采购和仓储物流。要推动这些改善，理想需要更深入地参与电池的研发和制造，在产品设计、生产管理和供应安排上掌握更大的主导权。这也解释了为什么理想一边强调自研，一边加深与电池企业的合作。车企希望按照整车需求定义电池，电池企业则提供工艺积累、制造管理和规模化生产能力，双方需要从研发阶段就共同工作。按照柳志民的回顾，相关团队从2019年开始接触欣旺达（300207），2021年开启首个项目的联合开发，2022年理想参与投资。合作逐渐从项目开发，深入到技术路线、产线规划、制造标准，甚至双方使用的工具和工作方法。2025年，双方进一步通过合资公司承接生产业务。北京理想汽车（LI）与欣旺达（300207）动力各持股50%，成立山东理想汽车（LI）电池有限公司，业务覆盖动力电池生产、制造和销售。今年9月，理想又计划投入26.5亿元增资欣旺达（300207）动力，对应增资完成后8.79%的股份。按照公告，交易完成后，理想相关主体将间接合计持有欣旺达（300207）动力11.17%的股份。随着合作深入，理想的研发人员也开始更直接地参与量产。刘立国透露，理想已经在山东派驻40多人的团队，与欣旺达（300207）一起工作。原型设计主要由北京团队主导，进入量产导入阶段后，双方共同推进。马东辉进一步解释了理想对合作伙伴的要求：“第一个数据一定要开放给我们。”由此再看欣旺达（300207）的角色，就更容易理解。理想选择合作伙伴时，除了技术、质量、成本和交付，也看重对方能否让自己的团队深入参与。制造能力和协作方式，需要同时满足要求。这套合作模式也会继续扩展。马东辉确认，理想自研代工电池的合作方还包括中创新航（HK3931），未来如果销量增长带来更多产能需求，也会寻找其他头部企业合作，前提仍是开放协作。“理想牌电池”，用户价值在哪？对于消费（883434）者而言，选择电池品牌背后的动机，其实是对于电池安全、寿命和充电体验的关切。所有，随着自研的“理想牌电池包”逐渐上车，理想汽车（LI）也需要回应消费（883434）者：由此产生的用户价值在哪？马东辉承认，电池品牌会影响消费（883434）者的选择，理想也需要时间让用户了解和接受自研电池。谈及2025年MEGA召回，他表示，电池没有做好是理想的问题：“用户买的是理想的品牌，他不需要知道电池是哪个家的。”他解释，理想其实在召回之前就早已开始布局自研电池。这次事件让他更加看重生产数据和验证工作：在他看来，如果此前能够打通各环节的数据、进行充分验证，本来有机会避免问题发生，减少给用户带来的麻烦。按照马东辉的解释，掌握生产数据，可以帮助理想更早发现电池问题。例如，某个环节有没有漏检、工艺参数是否出现异常，都可能影响电池质量。理想希望在生产和验证阶段就找到这些问题，尽量在车辆交付前解决；车辆交付后，再结合使用和充电数据，持续检查电池状态，及时发现风险。除了安全，理想也希望自研能改善充电、低温和续航表现。这些性能既与电芯有关，也受到热管理、电驱动和控制系统的影响。马东辉认为，深入电芯研发之后，理想可以根据整车需求，一起考虑电池设计、散热和控制策略，让各个系统配合得更好。对于电池长期使用后的寿命和可靠性，刘立国介绍，理想正在研发类似电池保养的服务。根据不同用户的使用条件和工况，理想会结合电池生产与使用数据，提供个性化建议，部分设置可以自动完成。他表示，希望通过这些方式延长电池寿命、提高可靠性，同时不影响用户的日常使用体验，相关服务将逐步推广。在充电方面，理想更看重用户实际能节省多少时间。刘立国解释，理想没有逐次跟进6C、8C、10C，是因为把充电时间从约10分钟缩短到8分钟，可能需要电池、整车和充电设施进行较大幅度的升级，而用户只节省两分钟。因此，理想希望下一步把充电时间推进到约5分钟。柳志民介绍，理想15C电池已经形成系统方案，并开展了大量整车验证，预计明年能够完成技术准备。目前仍在优化寿命和能量密度，具体何时量产应用，还要根据车型的产品目标进一步判断。按照管理层的介绍，自研电池带给用户的价值，主要体现在三个方面：掌握生产和使用数据，帮助理想更早发现异常、处理安全隐患；将电芯与整车系统共同设计，改善充电、低温和续航表现；根据不同用户的使用情况调整电池管理方式，改善长期使用中的寿命和可靠性。这些目标覆盖了电池从生产到日常使用的过程。对用户而言，具体的好处应当是更少的故障和维修、更稳定的续航、更短的补能等待，以及电池出现异常时更及时的提醒和处理。“理想牌电池”的价值，最终要体现在这些用车体验上。对于电池切换是否已经影响订单，马东辉表示：“我没有办法去做对比和分析。”他同时表示，理想会坚持自研战略；如果用户仍有顾虑，希望再观察一段时间，理想也尊重他们的选择。电池自研潮，车企争的不只是成本随着更多车企将研发的触手延伸到电池，整车企业与电池企业的合作也在深入。理想通过自研、合资生产和股权投资，在这条路上走得较为激进。从沟通会上管理层的回应来看，从宁德时代（300750）电池逐步转向自研，理想争取到的研发和制造主导权。但对于消费（883434）者来说，体验和信任最终才是选择它的理由。多年研发、合资生产和股权投资，让理想有条件更深入地参与电池设计、质量管理和成本优化，也让它对产品表现承担了更直接的责任。对车企而言，自研电池之路并不容易。但这条路线走通之后的收益，同样也很诱人：在研发上，可以围绕整车需求定义电池性能；在制造上，可以更深入地参与质量管理和成本优化；在服务上，可以将生产与使用数据打通，更早发现问题、改善长期用车体验。这些能力既有助于车企形成技术优势，也为用户带来更好的产品和服务提供了条件。因此，理想凭什么让用户为自研电池买单？答案应当来自交付之后的每一次充电、每一段行程和每一次服务。当研发投入能够持续改善这些体验，消费（883434）者就有理由相信，选择理想自研电池，是一个值得的决定。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":1.5,"CXSE":0.6,"03750":0.6,"LIT":0.6,"EVS.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608962462494848,"gmtCreate":1789699162246,"gmtModify":1789699164649,"author":{"id":"4100758887154710","authorId":"4100758887154710","name":"Fire Phoenix","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009ab87b80e05d43f56cbee8792e1342","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100758887154710","idStr":"4100758887154710"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"宁德时代自己的钠离子电池目前续航很差，就技术成熟度而言，宁德时代确实不适合转固态电池赛道。而且更重要的是宁德时代目前的产线不适合固态电池，之前的所有投资都会折损，这会影响它的固定资产财报。三，他们不了解广东的竞争节奏和比亚迪的研发和供应链实力，比亚迪的固态电池一定会在27年上市。","listText":"宁德时代自己的钠离子电池目前续航很差，就技术成熟度而言，宁德时代确实不适合转固态电池赛道。而且更重要的是宁德时代目前的产线不适合固态电池，之前的所有投资都会折损，这会影响它的固定资产财报。三，他们不了解广东的竞争节奏和比亚迪的研发和供应链实力，比亚迪的固态电池一定会在27年上市。","text":"宁德时代自己的钠离子电池目前续航很差，就技术成熟度而言，宁德时代确实不适合转固态电池赛道。而且更重要的是宁德时代目前的产线不适合固态电池，之前的所有投资都会折损，这会影响它的固定资产财报。三，他们不了解广东的竞争节奏和比亚迪的研发和供应链实力，比亚迪的固态电池一定会在27年上市。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608962462494848","repostId":"2668710965","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2668710965","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1789640151,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2668710965?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-09-17 18:15","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"对话｜宁德时代首席制造官倪军：会造车不一定会造电池","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2668710965","media":"蓝鲸财经","summary":"近日，宁德时代首席制造官倪军在该公司品质全球开放月活动上对蓝鲸汽车记者等表示。在其看来，会造车，不一定会造电池。宁德时代首席制造官倪军以下为对话实录提问：目前行业对固态电池关注度很高，也有车企提出2027年前后开始搭载固态电池。","content":"<html><body><p><img height=\"592\" src=\"https://file.lanjinger.com/ljapi/report/637716617123338681_888x592.jpg\" width=\"888\"/></p><p><span><span>图片来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">视觉中国</a></span></span></p><p><strong><span>蓝鲸新闻9月17日讯（记者 李卓玲 </span>陈业</strong><span><strong>）</strong>在越来越多企业将2027年视为全固态电池重要落地节点之际，作为动力电池一哥的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>，却给出了一个相对谨慎的判断。</span></p><p><span>“<strong>我个人觉得，没有5年以上不太可能，现在很多还是在炒一些概念。</strong>”近日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03750\">宁德时代</a>首席制造官倪军在该公司品质全球开放月活动上对蓝鲸汽车记者等表示。</span></p><p><span>在其看来，一项新技术从实验室走向商品，需要依次解决科学、技术、工程、产品、价格以及供应体系等问题，但目前连科学问题都还有很多没有完全理解。</span></p><p><span>他以“固固界面”为例称，液态电池存在电解液，传导通路相对充分；全固态电池则需要正极、固态电解质和负极之间保持紧密接触。目前行业大多做法是在外面施加非常大的外力，但因为电池充一次电、放一次电，体积都会发生变化。一发生变化，这个接触可能就没有了。</span></p><p><span>宁德时代董事长曾毓群此前也曾多次“泼冷水”，其今年6月在一场公开论坛上表示，<strong>若技术成熟度从1到9级划分，目前固态电池的技术还处在第四级，而第九级才是技术路线成熟、可以量产</strong>。更早前的2025年，其曾公开“炮轰”车企过度宣传固态电池的量产进程，认为一些车企过度宣传固态电池技术成熟度，实际上是在误导公众和投资者。</span></p><p><span>相比仍处于小样阶段的全固态电池，倪军认为，钠电和凝聚态电池与现有制造体系的衔接更加明确。其透露，<strong>宁德时代钠电与锂电产线可以实现全兼容，凝聚态电池也可以利用现有产线生产。“明年新的产线规划，也都会提前考虑不同技术路线之间的可兼容性。”</strong></span></p><p><span><strong>被问及车企自研电池，甚至选择与消费电子出身的电池企业合作现象时，倪军表示，消费电子电池和动力电池存在很大的差异，最突出的便是一致性要求。</strong>“消费电子电池没有一致性要求，但动力电池不一样。一辆车里面有几百个、上千个电芯。如果电芯之间不一致，就会出现问题。”</span></p><p><span>在其看来，<strong>会造车，不一定会造电池。“还是要专业的人，做专业的事。”</strong></span></p><p><span>在此次宁德品质全球开放月活动中，倪军谈得更多的，也是动力电池大规模制造背后的一致性问题。他指出，做出一颗好电池不难，难的是做十亿颗一样好的电池，“即使每一颗电芯单独看都符合规格，<strong>如果容量、内阻、自放电等性能之间存在较大差异，组合成电池包后，依然可能出现‘木桶效应’</strong>，即容量较低的电芯可能更早充满、放空，内阻较大的电芯更容易发热和衰减，最终影响整个电池包的性能和寿命。所以，一台车能跑多远、用多久，不是由最好的电芯决定的，而是由最差那颗决定的。”</span></p><p><img height=\"592\" src=\"https://file.lanjinger.com/ljapi/report/637716713726548409_888x592.jpeg\" width=\"888\"/></p><p><span><span>宁德时代首席制造官倪军</span></span></p><p><span><strong><span>以下为对话实录（经编辑整理）</span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span>提问：目前行业对固态电池关注度很高，也有车企提出2027年前后开始搭载固态电池。宁德时代在这方面如何布局？怎么看固态电池未来的发展？</span></strong></p><p><span><strong>倪军：</strong>固态电池具体的进展有些信息不方便讲，但可以讲一些原则性的东西。</span></p><p><span>不管任何技术、产品，其实发展要经过非常多阶段。</span></p><p><span>首先要把科学问题解决。科学上你要完全理解它为什么发生，背后的因果关系是什么。第二个是技术问题，科学问题解决了以后要解决技术问题；技术问题解决以后，第三个是工程问题；工程问题解决以后，才开始进入产品问题。从有产品到真正变成商品，还有价格问题，以及整个供应体系的问题。</span></p><p><strong><span>我觉得现在有很多说法，经常看到这家宣布要装固态了，那家也说要装固态了。我个人觉得，没有5年以上不太可能，现在很多还是在炒一些概念。</span></strong></p><p><span>因为现在很多科学问题大家还没有完全理解。最简单的一个问题就是我们讲的固固界面。固态电池没有电解液，用的都是固体电解质。一个电池从正极到电解质，再到负极，中间既要有离子传导，也要有电子传导。</span></p><p><span>有液体的时候，电解液的传导通路到处都有。但到了固态，你必须保证它们之间接触得足够紧密。现在大家很多做法是在外面施加非常大的外力，把它硬约束在那里。但因为电池充一次电、放一次电，体积都会发生变化。一发生变化，这个接触可能就没有了。</span></p><p><span>所以从科学层面来看，现在还有很多问题没有完全理解。行业里也有不同的路径，比如硫化物、氧化物、聚合物等。最终怎么样，还需要继续往后看。</span></p><p><strong><span>提问：您认为消费电子和动力电池有哪些差异？</span></strong></p><p><span><strong>倪军：</strong>消费电子电池没有一致性要求。比如你的手机拿回家续航10个小时，另外一部手机可能续航8个半小时，但你不知道自己比别人多，别人也不知道自己比你少。因为每一块电池基本上是单独工作的，没有一致性要求。</span></p><p><span>但动力电池完全不一样。一辆车里面有几百个、上千个电芯。如果电芯之间不一致，就会出现问题。比如电量多的会往电量低的方向冲，我形容就是“大的欺负小的”，慢慢地弱的电芯会越来越弱，问题就出现了。</span></p><p><span>所以消费电子电池和动力电池是完全不同的概念。</span></p><p><strong><span>提问：宁德时代对低缺陷率要求非常高，这会不会也推高制造成本，导致产品售价高于其他公司？</span></strong></p><p><span><strong>倪军：</strong>要做好其实不光是制造端，很多问题在设计端就已经决定了。如果只是等到制造的时候，把坏的挑掉，把好的放出去，那已经不行了，你没有任何竞争力。</span></p><p><span>动力电池品质的一致性，是研发出来的、设计出来的、生产出来的，也是在使用过程中调控出来的。</span></p><p><span>我做制造已经40多年了，各种各样的制造业都做过。我觉得动力电池是一个非常难、也非常exciting的领域。</span></p><p><strong><span>像马斯克也很厉害，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">SpaceX</a>、Neuralink等都做了。但我们当时就讲过一句话：你会造车，不一定你会造电池。还是要专业的人做专业的事。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>提问：超充电池对压差、容量差要求是不是比普通电池更高？从研发和制造来看，超充真正难在哪里？</span></strong></p><p><span><strong>倪军：</strong>我们之所以推出神行等产品，首先是要解决快速补能的问题。宁德时代十多年来在这方面投入了大量研发，我们一直在思考消费者最关键的需求是什么。</span></p><p><span>回过来看过去10年，整个动力电池的售价可能已经下降了百分之八九十，是非常显著的下降。续航里程也提高了很多，可能超过10倍了。最早的电动车可能只有100多公里续航，现在我们可以推出1500公里这样的方案。</span></p><p><span><strong>补能时间也一样。原来充一次电需要4个小时，后来变成1个小时、30分钟、10分钟，再到几分钟。其实到了几分钟以后，再继续缩短已经没有太大意义了。</strong>你去上个洗手间，或者买杯咖啡，就好了。</span></p><p><span><strong>其实我们现在推得更好的技术是换电。</strong>以前这一模式是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">蔚来</a>一家车企在推，做换电其实很难，因为你不可能在所有卖车的市场里都自己布局大量换电站。</span></p><p><span>我们作为第三方来做，就可以推动标准化电池包。现在已经有十几个、二十个品牌参与，大家使用同样尺寸、标准化的电池包，比如20号、25号、26号包等。</span></p><p><span>平时我在市区里开车，可以换一个小一点的电池包，不需要一直背那么大的电池。因为电池本身就是重量，背着重量也要耗电。到了周末想出去跑长途，我再换一个大包就可以了。</span></p><p><span>另外，换电速度现在最快已经可以做到100秒左右。100秒和超充在用户实际感受上已经没有太大差异。100秒，我一下就换到800公里的电池，然后就走了。</span></p><p><strong><span>还有一个好处，就是可以始终使用最先进的电池技术。因为电池技术一直在迭代。我们每年投入200多亿元做研发，就是不断提高电池的安全性、能量密度、功率性能、功率密度等。</span></strong></p><p><span>如果你买了一辆车，前几年可能很开心，但很快第二年你车上的电池就已经不是最新技术了，而且你还要一直背着它，可能8年、10年。换电不一样，每一个换出去的电池都是要经过认证的。</span></p><p><span>再回到超充这个话题，从设计和生产角度来看，超充真正的难点在哪？</span></p><p><span>你要快速充电，电压会很高，电流也非常大。这个时候整个电芯、极片，包括设计的内阻都非常关键，否则就会产生发热。</span></p><p><span>另外，<strong>现在很多所谓的超充，短期看可能感觉不出问题。但每一次充放电以后，内部结构都不是百分之百完全恢复到原来的状态。</strong>除了主反应以外，还有很多副反应，这些很微小的结构变化会不断累积。长期来看还是不好的。</span></p><p><span>所以其实还是换电最简单，换电站里面的电池，我也不需要用超充的方法把它充进去。所以换电有很多优势。</span></p><p><strong><span>提问：此前曾毓群总提到，品质不是检测出来的，而是设计出来、制造出来的。设计和制造阶段分别如何影响动力电池？宁德时代在这两方面的稀缺性和不可替代性有多强？</span></strong></p><p><span><strong>倪军：</strong>为什么设计得好和不好会有这么大的区别？</span></p><p><span>很多人讲质量、成本，我们可以用一个“二八定律”来理解，绝大部分其实已经在设计端定好了。先天就是这样，后面很难再改。制造端更多是确保不再增加新的变量。</span></p><p><span>电池里面参数太多了，有非常多变量，而且变量之间还有复杂的相互关系。有些反应是你已经考虑到的主反应，但有些可能是你没有完全考虑到的副反应。副反应产生的一些残留物，也可能慢慢参与到主反应里面。所以这里面要找到一个sweet spot（最佳点）。</span></p><p><span>什么叫设计得好？就是我对材料波动的容忍能力比较强。如果设计得不好，也可以做出来，但必须要求进来的材料各方面性能都非常严格地达到设计规范，最终产品才能达到性能要求。但这种设计我们不认为是非常好的设计，因为它没有足够的波动容忍能力。</span></p><p><span>任何产品，我们不是做一件，而是要做几十亿件。到了这样的规模，唯一确定的就是波动，肯定会有波动。所以设计得好，就是要让产品对波动不敏感，弱化各种波动带来的影响，再加上制造端把它控制在我们要求的窗口范围内。所以设计和制造前后一定要非常紧密地合作。</span></p><p><strong><span>提问：目前行业钠电、凝聚态、固态等多条技术路线同时推进。从制造端来看，前沿电池工程化落地最大的挑战是什么？现有产线如何柔性适配不同技术路线？</span></strong></p><p><span><strong>倪军：</strong>从投资人的角度，他们也非常关心：如果一个新的技术来了，已经投入的产线还能不能兼容？</span></p><p><strong><span>钠电方面，我们可以和锂电实现全兼容。凝聚态电池也可以在现有产线上生产。固态才是完全不一样的。</span></strong></p><p><span><strong>不过，固态电池现在行业里其实都还是在做小样。</strong>我们现在发现，其实大部分现有设备和工艺也可以重新“利旧”。</span></p><p><span>但这里又回到我前面讲的问题。因为科学问题还没有完全理解，所以最终工艺到底是不是现在看到的这种工艺，还没有答案。现在大家做的更多是小样，可能就是几百件。这个阶段有些做法甚至比较像“作坊式”的做法。</span></p><p><span>但真正进入大规模生产以后，是不是还会采用这种工艺，现在其实没人能确定。所以固态可以先单独放在一边。</span></p><p><span>但<strong>其他几种技术路线，我们现在已经开始考虑产线兼容性。包括明年新的产线规划，也都会提前考虑不同技术路线之间的可兼容性。</strong></span></p></body></html>","source":"lanjinger_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>对话｜宁德时代首席制造官倪军：会造车不一定会造电池</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n对话｜宁德时代首席制造官倪军：会造车不一定会造电池\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-09-17 18:15 北京时间 <a href=https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1789638780791119681><strong>蓝鲸财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>图片来源：视觉中国蓝鲸新闻9月17日讯（记者 李卓玲 陈业）在越来越多企业将2027年视为全固态电池重要落地节点之际，作为动力电池一哥的宁德时代，却给出了一个相对谨慎的判断。“我个人觉得，没有5年以上不太可能，现在很多还是在炒一些概念。”近日，宁德时代首席制造官倪军在该公司品质全球开放月活动上对蓝鲸汽车记者等表示。在其看来，一项新技术从实验室走向商品，需要依次解决科学、技术、工程、产品、价格以及...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1789638780791119681\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代","LU0877626530.USD":"FIDELITY ASIA PACIFIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC MONTHLY (G)","LU1206782309.USD":"未来资产中国增长股票 “A” 类（美元）累积型","LU0607220059.USD":"SCHRODER ISF HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0831103253.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Asia Pacific Income A (mth) SGD","SG9999001846.SGD":"Schroder Asian Equity Yield A Dis SGD","LU0047713382.USD":"BGF EMERGING MARKETS \"A2\" ACC","LU2238339852.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BPRC5H50.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 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陈业）在越来越多企业将2027年视为全固态电池重要落地节点之际，作为动力电池一哥的宁德时代，却给出了一个相对谨慎的判断。“我个人觉得，没有5年以上不太可能，现在很多还是在炒一些概念。”近日，宁德时代首席制造官倪军在该公司品质全球开放月活动上对蓝鲸汽车记者等表示。在其看来，一项新技术从实验室走向商品，需要依次解决科学、技术、工程、产品、价格以及供应体系等问题，但目前连科学问题都还有很多没有完全理解。他以“固固界面”为例称，液态电池存在电解液，传导通路相对充分；全固态电池则需要正极、固态电解质和负极之间保持紧密接触。目前行业大多做法是在外面施加非常大的外力，但因为电池充一次电、放一次电，体积都会发生变化。一发生变化，这个接触可能就没有了。宁德时代董事长曾毓群此前也曾多次“泼冷水”，其今年6月在一场公开论坛上表示，若技术成熟度从1到9级划分，目前固态电池的技术还处在第四级，而第九级才是技术路线成熟、可以量产。更早前的2025年，其曾公开“炮轰”车企过度宣传固态电池的量产进程，认为一些车企过度宣传固态电池技术成熟度，实际上是在误导公众和投资者。相比仍处于小样阶段的全固态电池，倪军认为，钠电和凝聚态电池与现有制造体系的衔接更加明确。其透露，宁德时代钠电与锂电产线可以实现全兼容，凝聚态电池也可以利用现有产线生产。“明年新的产线规划，也都会提前考虑不同技术路线之间的可兼容性。”被问及车企自研电池，甚至选择与消费电子出身的电池企业合作现象时，倪军表示，消费电子电池和动力电池存在很大的差异，最突出的便是一致性要求。“消费电子电池没有一致性要求，但动力电池不一样。一辆车里面有几百个、上千个电芯。如果电芯之间不一致，就会出现问题。”在其看来，会造车，不一定会造电池。“还是要专业的人，做专业的事。”在此次宁德品质全球开放月活动中，倪军谈得更多的，也是动力电池大规模制造背后的一致性问题。他指出，做出一颗好电池不难，难的是做十亿颗一样好的电池，“即使每一颗电芯单独看都符合规格，如果容量、内阻、自放电等性能之间存在较大差异，组合成电池包后，依然可能出现‘木桶效应’，即容量较低的电芯可能更早充满、放空，内阻较大的电芯更容易发热和衰减，最终影响整个电池包的性能和寿命。所以，一台车能跑多远、用多久，不是由最好的电芯决定的，而是由最差那颗决定的。”宁德时代首席制造官倪军以下为对话实录（经编辑整理）提问：目前行业对固态电池关注度很高，也有车企提出2027年前后开始搭载固态电池。宁德时代在这方面如何布局？怎么看固态电池未来的发展？倪军：固态电池具体的进展有些信息不方便讲，但可以讲一些原则性的东西。不管任何技术、产品，其实发展要经过非常多阶段。首先要把科学问题解决。科学上你要完全理解它为什么发生，背后的因果关系是什么。第二个是技术问题，科学问题解决了以后要解决技术问题；技术问题解决以后，第三个是工程问题；工程问题解决以后，才开始进入产品问题。从有产品到真正变成商品，还有价格问题，以及整个供应体系的问题。我觉得现在有很多说法，经常看到这家宣布要装固态了，那家也说要装固态了。我个人觉得，没有5年以上不太可能，现在很多还是在炒一些概念。因为现在很多科学问题大家还没有完全理解。最简单的一个问题就是我们讲的固固界面。固态电池没有电解液，用的都是固体电解质。一个电池从正极到电解质，再到负极，中间既要有离子传导，也要有电子传导。有液体的时候，电解液的传导通路到处都有。但到了固态，你必须保证它们之间接触得足够紧密。现在大家很多做法是在外面施加非常大的外力，把它硬约束在那里。但因为电池充一次电、放一次电，体积都会发生变化。一发生变化，这个接触可能就没有了。所以从科学层面来看，现在还有很多问题没有完全理解。行业里也有不同的路径，比如硫化物、氧化物、聚合物等。最终怎么样，还需要继续往后看。提问：您认为消费电子和动力电池有哪些差异？倪军：消费电子电池没有一致性要求。比如你的手机拿回家续航10个小时，另外一部手机可能续航8个半小时，但你不知道自己比别人多，别人也不知道自己比你少。因为每一块电池基本上是单独工作的，没有一致性要求。但动力电池完全不一样。一辆车里面有几百个、上千个电芯。如果电芯之间不一致，就会出现问题。比如电量多的会往电量低的方向冲，我形容就是“大的欺负小的”，慢慢地弱的电芯会越来越弱，问题就出现了。所以消费电子电池和动力电池是完全不同的概念。提问：宁德时代对低缺陷率要求非常高，这会不会也推高制造成本，导致产品售价高于其他公司？倪军：要做好其实不光是制造端，很多问题在设计端就已经决定了。如果只是等到制造的时候，把坏的挑掉，把好的放出去，那已经不行了，你没有任何竞争力。动力电池品质的一致性，是研发出来的、设计出来的、生产出来的，也是在使用过程中调控出来的。我做制造已经40多年了，各种各样的制造业都做过。我觉得动力电池是一个非常难、也非常exciting的领域。像马斯克也很厉害，SpaceX、Neuralink等都做了。但我们当时就讲过一句话：你会造车，不一定你会造电池。还是要专业的人做专业的事。提问：超充电池对压差、容量差要求是不是比普通电池更高？从研发和制造来看，超充真正难在哪里？倪军：我们之所以推出神行等产品，首先是要解决快速补能的问题。宁德时代十多年来在这方面投入了大量研发，我们一直在思考消费者最关键的需求是什么。回过来看过去10年，整个动力电池的售价可能已经下降了百分之八九十，是非常显著的下降。续航里程也提高了很多，可能超过10倍了。最早的电动车可能只有100多公里续航，现在我们可以推出1500公里这样的方案。补能时间也一样。原来充一次电需要4个小时，后来变成1个小时、30分钟、10分钟，再到几分钟。其实到了几分钟以后，再继续缩短已经没有太大意义了。你去上个洗手间，或者买杯咖啡，就好了。其实我们现在推得更好的技术是换电。以前这一模式是蔚来一家车企在推，做换电其实很难，因为你不可能在所有卖车的市场里都自己布局大量换电站。我们作为第三方来做，就可以推动标准化电池包。现在已经有十几个、二十个品牌参与，大家使用同样尺寸、标准化的电池包，比如20号、25号、26号包等。平时我在市区里开车，可以换一个小一点的电池包，不需要一直背那么大的电池。因为电池本身就是重量，背着重量也要耗电。到了周末想出去跑长途，我再换一个大包就可以了。另外，换电速度现在最快已经可以做到100秒左右。100秒和超充在用户实际感受上已经没有太大差异。100秒，我一下就换到800公里的电池，然后就走了。还有一个好处，就是可以始终使用最先进的电池技术。因为电池技术一直在迭代。我们每年投入200多亿元做研发，就是不断提高电池的安全性、能量密度、功率性能、功率密度等。如果你买了一辆车，前几年可能很开心，但很快第二年你车上的电池就已经不是最新技术了，而且你还要一直背着它，可能8年、10年。换电不一样，每一个换出去的电池都是要经过认证的。再回到超充这个话题，从设计和生产角度来看，超充真正的难点在哪？你要快速充电，电压会很高，电流也非常大。这个时候整个电芯、极片，包括设计的内阻都非常关键，否则就会产生发热。另外，现在很多所谓的超充，短期看可能感觉不出问题。但每一次充放电以后，内部结构都不是百分之百完全恢复到原来的状态。除了主反应以外，还有很多副反应，这些很微小的结构变化会不断累积。长期来看还是不好的。所以其实还是换电最简单，换电站里面的电池，我也不需要用超充的方法把它充进去。所以换电有很多优势。提问：此前曾毓群总提到，品质不是检测出来的，而是设计出来、制造出来的。设计和制造阶段分别如何影响动力电池？宁德时代在这两方面的稀缺性和不可替代性有多强？倪军：为什么设计得好和不好会有这么大的区别？很多人讲质量、成本，我们可以用一个“二八定律”来理解，绝大部分其实已经在设计端定好了。先天就是这样，后面很难再改。制造端更多是确保不再增加新的变量。电池里面参数太多了，有非常多变量，而且变量之间还有复杂的相互关系。有些反应是你已经考虑到的主反应，但有些可能是你没有完全考虑到的副反应。副反应产生的一些残留物，也可能慢慢参与到主反应里面。所以这里面要找到一个sweet spot（最佳点）。什么叫设计得好？就是我对材料波动的容忍能力比较强。如果设计得不好，也可以做出来，但必须要求进来的材料各方面性能都非常严格地达到设计规范，最终产品才能达到性能要求。但这种设计我们不认为是非常好的设计，因为它没有足够的波动容忍能力。任何产品，我们不是做一件，而是要做几十亿件。到了这样的规模，唯一确定的就是波动，肯定会有波动。所以设计得好，就是要让产品对波动不敏感，弱化各种波动带来的影响，再加上制造端把它控制在我们要求的窗口范围内。所以设计和制造前后一定要非常紧密地合作。提问：目前行业钠电、凝聚态、固态等多条技术路线同时推进。从制造端来看，前沿电池工程化落地最大的挑战是什么？现有产线如何柔性适配不同技术路线？倪军：从投资人的角度，他们也非常关心：如果一个新的技术来了，已经投入的产线还能不能兼容？钠电方面，我们可以和锂电实现全兼容。凝聚态电池也可以在现有产线上生产。固态才是完全不一样的。不过，固态电池现在行业里其实都还是在做小样。我们现在发现，其实大部分现有设备和工艺也可以重新“利旧”。但这里又回到我前面讲的问题。因为科学问题还没有完全理解，所以最终工艺到底是不是现在看到的这种工艺，还没有答案。现在大家做的更多是小样，可能就是几百件。这个阶段有些做法甚至比较像“作坊式”的做法。但真正进入大规模生产以后，是不是还会采用这种工艺，现在其实没人能确定。所以固态可以先单独放在一边。但其他几种技术路线，我们现在已经开始考虑产线兼容性。包括明年新的产线规划，也都会提前考虑不同技术路线之间的可兼容性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":1.96,"03750":1.96,"EVS.SI":0.6,"LIT":0.6,"CXSE":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608262438818384,"gmtCreate":1789525089197,"gmtModify":1789525091222,"author":{"id":"4100758887154710","authorId":"4100758887154710","name":"Fire 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10:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"宁德时代AH股续跌4%，市场关于车企“去宁化”的焦虑情绪不断蔓延","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111494097","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"宁德时代 AH 股续跌 4%，市场关于车企“去宁化”的焦虑情绪不断蔓延。9月初，理想汽车宣布斥资26.5亿元增资欣旺达动力。交易完成后，理想相关主体将合计持股11.17%，成为欣旺达动力第二大股东。与此同时，2026年6月上市的全新一代理想L8，全系采用欣旺达电芯，宁德时代退出该车型的供应名单。电池包由理想与欣旺达合资公司生产，产品由理想定义，制造交给欣旺达。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>宁德时代 AH 股续跌 4%，市场关于车企“去宁化”的焦虑情绪不断蔓延。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">9月初，理想汽车宣布斥资26.5亿元增资欣旺达动力。交易完成后，理想相关主体将合计持股11.17%，成为欣旺达动力第二大股东。这不是简单的财务投资，而是车企扶持替代供应商的明确动作。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，2026年6月上市的全新一代理想L8，全系采用欣旺达电芯，宁德时代退出该车型的供应名单。电池包由理想与欣旺达合资公司生产，产品由理想定义，制造交给欣旺达。最新申报的2026款理想i6，又引入欣旺达和中创新航作为电池供应商。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">理想正在通过实际行动对外释放一个信号：减少对宁德时代的依赖，把电池系统的定义权掌握在自己手中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">类似动作正在行业内扩散。小米为“龙甲电池”引入中创新航和欣旺达，鸿蒙智行部分车型采用多家电池供应商。吉利、长城、广汽、上汽等车企，也在通过自研电池、合资建厂和投资供应商等方式建立自己的电池体系。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>宁德时代AH股续跌4%，市场关于车企“去宁化”的焦虑情绪不断蔓延</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n宁德时代AH股续跌4%，市场关于车企“去宁化”的焦虑情绪不断蔓延\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-16 10:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>宁德时代 AH 股续跌 4%，市场关于车企“去宁化”的焦虑情绪不断蔓延。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">9月初，理想汽车宣布斥资26.5亿元增资欣旺达动力。交易完成后，理想相关主体将合计持股11.17%，成为欣旺达动力第二大股东。这不是简单的财务投资，而是车企扶持替代供应商的明确动作。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，2026年6月上市的全新一代理想L8，全系采用欣旺达电芯，宁德时代退出该车型的供应名单。电池包由理想与欣旺达合资公司生产，产品由理想定义，制造交给欣旺达。最新申报的2026款理想i6，又引入欣旺达和中创新航作为电池供应商。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">理想正在通过实际行动对外释放一个信号：减少对宁德时代的依赖，把电池系统的定义权掌握在自己手中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">类似动作正在行业内扩散。小米为“龙甲电池”引入中创新航和欣旺达，鸿蒙智行部分车型采用多家电池供应商。吉利、长城、广汽、上汽等车企，也在通过自研电池、合资建厂和投资供应商等方式建立自己的电池体系。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983e0432c72ee1117f6c5b8a19ed6e25","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代","03750":"宁德时代"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111494097","content_text":"宁德时代 AH 股续跌 4%，市场关于车企“去宁化”的焦虑情绪不断蔓延。9月初，理想汽车宣布斥资26.5亿元增资欣旺达动力。交易完成后，理想相关主体将合计持股11.17%，成为欣旺达动力第二大股东。这不是简单的财务投资，而是车企扶持替代供应商的明确动作。与此同时，2026年6月上市的全新一代理想L8，全系采用欣旺达电芯，宁德时代退出该车型的供应名单。电池包由理想与欣旺达合资公司生产，产品由理想定义，制造交给欣旺达。最新申报的2026款理想i6，又引入欣旺达和中创新航作为电池供应商。理想正在通过实际行动对外释放一个信号：减少对宁德时代的依赖，把电池系统的定义权掌握在自己手中。类似动作正在行业内扩散。小米为“龙甲电池”引入中创新航和欣旺达，鸿蒙智行部分车型采用多家电池供应商。吉利、长城、广汽、上汽等车企，也在通过自研电池、合资建厂和投资供应商等方式建立自己的电池体系。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":2,"03750":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607963572213120,"gmtCreate":1789452198002,"gmtModify":1789452200280,"author":{"id":"4100758887154710","authorId":"4100758887154710","name":"Fire Phoenix","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009ab87b80e05d43f56cbee8792e1342","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100758887154710","idStr":"4100758887154710"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"宁德时代就是安全的？工厂动不动就，你懂的","listText":"宁德时代就是安全的？工厂动不动就，你懂的","text":"宁德时代就是安全的？工厂动不动就，你懂的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607963572213120","repostId":"2667494697","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2667494697","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1789434900,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2667494697?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-09-15 09:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"理想汽车与小米汽车调整动力电池供应商","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2667494697","media":"网通社","summary":"理想汽车开启新的动力电池战略，从选用宁德时代转向自研技术。新上市的小米澎程N70和N90放弃了SU7和YU7此前选择的宁德时代，改用自家龙甲电池。小米澎程和理想汽车均选择了中创新航、欣旺达来填补份额，采用共研加自产模式。2026年上半年，宁德时代装车量份额提升，比亚迪下降，中创新航和欣旺达份额发生变化。长安、长城、东风、上汽正在推进深度整合。","content":"<div>\n<p>理想汽车开启新的动力电池战略，从选用宁德时代转向自研技术。新上市的小米澎程N70和N90放弃了SU7和YU7此前选择的宁德时代，改用自家龙甲电池。小米澎程和理想汽车均选择了中创新航、欣旺达来填补份额，采用共研加自产模式。 2026年上半年，宁德时代装车量份额提升，比亚迪下降，中创新航和欣旺达份额发生变化。 长安、长城、东风、上汽正在推进深度整合。（文章来源：网通社）</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202609153874301716.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202609153874301716.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81211":"比亚迪股份-R","81810":"小米集团-WR","91215":"欣旺达电子股份有限公司（临时代码）","300750":"宁德时代","LU1008478684.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (HKD) ACC","IE0008368742.USD":"首域中国增长基金I Acc","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","SG9999002463.SGD":"LionGlobal China Growth SGD","LU0540923850.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity Income A6 SGD-H","SMOG":"VanEck Low Carbon Energy ETF","BK1594":"碳中和概念股","LU2092937221.SGD":"Blackrock Circular Economy A2 SGD-H","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK1502":"双十一","BK0224":"电气机械","03750":"宁德时代","LU1119993845.HKD":"FIDELITY ASIA PACIFIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKDHDG) INC","XIACY":"小米集团ADR","SG9999003461.SGD":"United Asia Pacific Infrastructure SGD","LU2242644610.SGD":"Fidelity China Innovation 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长安、长城、东风、上汽正在推进深度整合。（文章来源：网通社）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"81211":0.6,"81810":0.6,"91215":1.86,"300750":1.87,"02015":1.95,"MIUmain":0.6,"DRGN":0.6,"HXXD.SI":0.6,"HYDD.SI":0.6,"XIACY":1.92,"BYDDY":1.84,"EVS.SI":0.6,"SMOG":0.6,"FDRV":0.6,"LIT":0.6,"CXSE":0.6,"03750":1.87,"01211":1.84,"01810":1.92,"LI":1.95,"002594":1.84}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":595890540679736,"gmtCreate":1786499242693,"gmtModify":1786499244727,"author":{"id":"4100758887154710","authorId":"4100758887154710","name":"Fire Phoenix","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009ab87b80e05d43f56cbee8792e1342","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100758887154710","idStr":"4100758887154710"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"我之前就讲过，内部人都套在10块，等待解套中。欢迎有钱庄家入驻[无语] ","listText":"我之前就讲过，内部人都套在10块，等待解套中。欢迎有钱庄家入驻[无语] ","text":"我之前就讲过，内部人都套在10块，等待解套中。欢迎有钱庄家入驻[无语]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/595890540679736","repostId":"1197427677","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1197427677","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"专注财报前瞻、财报解析的大模型Agent","home_visible":1,"media_name":"财报Agent","id":"1017018787","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f"},"pubTimestamp":1786494741,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1197427677?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-12 08:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻｜思摩尔国际HNB催化提振预期，股东减持或扰动估值","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197427677","media":"财报Agent","summary":"思摩尔国际将于2026年08月19日盘后披露中期业绩，市场聚焦HNB推进与订单兑现节奏。成长动能主要来自HNB业务推进，市场消息称全年HNB产品销售目标为20.00亿元人民币，但同比数据暂未披露。结合前期股价对政策催化的反应，市场普遍把本季度视作验证HNB落地与客户转化的关键时点，一旦出货与储备订单披露优于预期，收入端弹性或先行体现。","content":"<p><h2><b>摘要</b></h2>\n思摩尔国际将于2026年08月19日盘后披露中期业绩，市场聚焦HNB推进与订单兑现节奏。\n<h2><b>市场预测</b></h2>\n当前公开渠道未见对本季度营收、毛利率、净利润或净利率、调整后每股收益的明确一致预期，公司层面亦未披露本季度量化指引，预测性数据暂不可得。公司主营聚焦电子雾化设备与APV，收入体量大且客户基础稳定。成长动能主要来自HNB业务推进，市场消息称全年HNB产品销售目标为20.00亿元人民币，但同比数据暂未披露。\n<h2><b>上季度回顾</b></h2>\n上季度公司营收约142.56亿，毛利率为-130.40%，归母净利润为2.55亿，净利率为6.29%，调整后每股收益未披露，同比数据暂未披露。单季归母净利润环比下降19.63%，利润率受成本项目与产品组合影响的迹象需在后续正式披露中进一步厘清。公司收入主要来自“电子雾化设备与组件及APV销售”，上季度实现约142.56亿收入，同比数据暂未披露。\n<h2><b>本季度展望</b></h2>\n<h4><b>HNB推进与政策进展带来的转化</b></h4>\n7月下旬市场关注加热卷烟国家标准进入征求意见阶段，带动板块情绪回暖，思摩尔国际的HNB相关业务因合规前景更加明朗而获得更高关注度。多家机构观点称，公司全年HNB产品销售目标为20.00亿元人民币，且有新客户预计在下半年加入，若按订单与交付节奏平滑至半年维度，本季度的接单与发货将决定全年目标的兑现路径。HNB产品在早期往往带来较高的单品价值，有助于拉动结构性收入增长，但毛利率能否同步修复仍取决于规模爬坡、良率与费用摊薄进度。结合前期股价对政策催化的反应，市场普遍把本季度视作验证HNB落地与客户转化的关键时点，一旦出货与储备订单披露优于预期，收入端弹性或先行体现。需要注意的是，HNB从样品导入到批量出货的周期较长，短期内收入体现在财报中的节奏仍可能不均匀，管理层在中期业绩沟通中的定性表述将影响市场对全年执行力的判断。</p>\n<p><h4><b>海外雾化业务的订单与新品周期</b></h4>\n近期研报观点认为，公司电子雾化产品销售有望在中期业绩中超越此前逾10%的增长指引，这一判断来自于海外订单稳定与新品切换周期的叠加。若客户去库存基本结束，新口味与新结构的产品迭代将带来订单补库需求，叠加部分地区监管趋于明确，有利于渠道恢复常态化补货。对本季度而言，海外雾化订单的确认节奏，将直接影响营收表现与产能利用率，若新品动销良好，规模优势有助于改善单位制造成本。上一季度毛利率显示为-130.40%，这一异常值提示成本与核算口径中可能存在一次性或结构性因素，若本季度确认仍以规模化出货为主，毛利率的修复路径将成为投资者在财报中的重点关注。</p>\n<p><h4><b>股东结构与交易层面的短期波动</b></h4>\n7月29日公司出现大额转仓，约5.00亿股由一家托管行转至另一家托管行，转仓市值约43.35亿港币；同时，主要股东的全资孙公司已获授权未来12个月内减持不超过公司3.50%的股份。大额转仓与潜在减持预期对情绪与流动性构成一定扰动，特别是在业绩披露窗口期，对估值弹性形成约束。若业绩端出现超预期信号，基本面改善有望对冲交易面的供给压力；反之，若指标不及预期，股东层面变动可能放大短期波动。结合近期股价随政策与持股变动而出现的放大反应，财报期内的沟通质量与前瞻信息密度将直接影响资金对公司基本面的再定价。</p>\n<p><h4><b>利润率与现金配置的观察要点</b></h4>\n上一季度毛利率口径为-130.40%，与归母净利润仍为正值并不匹配，这一背离提示成本确认、存货调整或一次性项目的影响需要在中期业绩中被详细披露；本季度若收入端兑现度较高，制造费用摊薄与良率提升有望带动毛利率回归常态区间。公司近月披露以1.10亿美元认购境外票据，票息结构含固定与未来浮动安排，此类资金配置在资金安全与收益性之间取得平衡，有助于增强现金流的稳定性与利息收入，对净利率形成一定支撑。利润率修复的核心仍在产品组合与规模效应，若HNB与海外雾化新品出货占比提升，叠加制造侧效率优化，本季度到下半年的毛利率趋势有望改善。管理层在费用投放节奏与资本开支的安排，将影响利润端弹性释放的节奏，投资者需关注财报中的费用率拆解与未来季度的指引口径。</p>\n<p><h2><b>分析师观点</b></h2>\n从近期机构观点汇总看，看多声音占优。市场报道与研报摘要显示，多家机构认为公司电子雾化产品销售有望在中期业绩中超越此前逾10%的增长指引，同时全年HNB产品销售目标为20.00亿元人民币且下半年预计有新客户加入，带动收入与盈利的可见度提升。大和在7月阶段的观点指出，受益于产品销售有望超越指引与HNB客户引入，2026年至2028年的净利润复合增速有望达到约28.00%，并判断盈利或自2027年起进入更快增长阶段；该机构同时对估值与持股变动保持审慎，但核心逻辑仍围绕增长动能的逐步兑现。在看多框架下，机构强调三点依据：第一，HNB订单转化与政策推进叠加，全年目标明确，有利于提升对收入端的信心；第二，海外雾化订单出现复苏迹象，新品动销带来结构性增长，增量部分或具备更高的附加值；第三，资金与现金流配置稳健，新增美元票据利息回报可对净利率起到边际支撑。综合而言，机构多倾向于以基本面改善度作为估值修复的触发条件，当前看多观点占据上风，关注点聚焦在本季度收入兑现、毛利率修复与新业务落地的节奏与幅度。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1017018787\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">财报Agent </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-12 08:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h2><b>摘要</b></h2>\n思摩尔国际将于2026年08月19日盘后披露中期业绩，市场聚焦HNB推进与订单兑现节奏。\n<h2><b>市场预测</b></h2>\n当前公开渠道未见对本季度营收、毛利率、净利润或净利率、调整后每股收益的明确一致预期，公司层面亦未披露本季度量化指引，预测性数据暂不可得。公司主营聚焦电子雾化设备与APV，收入体量大且客户基础稳定。成长动能主要来自HNB业务推进，市场消息称全年HNB产品销售目标为20.00亿元人民币，但同比数据暂未披露。\n<h2><b>上季度回顾</b></h2>\n上季度公司营收约142.56亿，毛利率为-130.40%，归母净利润为2.55亿，净利率为6.29%，调整后每股收益未披露，同比数据暂未披露。单季归母净利润环比下降19.63%，利润率受成本项目与产品组合影响的迹象需在后续正式披露中进一步厘清。公司收入主要来自“电子雾化设备与组件及APV销售”，上季度实现约142.56亿收入，同比数据暂未披露。\n<h2><b>本季度展望</b></h2>\n<h4><b>HNB推进与政策进展带来的转化</b></h4>\n7月下旬市场关注加热卷烟国家标准进入征求意见阶段，带动板块情绪回暖，思摩尔国际的HNB相关业务因合规前景更加明朗而获得更高关注度。多家机构观点称，公司全年HNB产品销售目标为20.00亿元人民币，且有新客户预计在下半年加入，若按订单与交付节奏平滑至半年维度，本季度的接单与发货将决定全年目标的兑现路径。HNB产品在早期往往带来较高的单品价值，有助于拉动结构性收入增长，但毛利率能否同步修复仍取决于规模爬坡、良率与费用摊薄进度。结合前期股价对政策催化的反应，市场普遍把本季度视作验证HNB落地与客户转化的关键时点，一旦出货与储备订单披露优于预期，收入端弹性或先行体现。需要注意的是，HNB从样品导入到批量出货的周期较长，短期内收入体现在财报中的节奏仍可能不均匀，管理层在中期业绩沟通中的定性表述将影响市场对全年执行力的判断。</p>\n<p><h4><b>海外雾化业务的订单与新品周期</b></h4>\n近期研报观点认为，公司电子雾化产品销售有望在中期业绩中超越此前逾10%的增长指引，这一判断来自于海外订单稳定与新品切换周期的叠加。若客户去库存基本结束，新口味与新结构的产品迭代将带来订单补库需求，叠加部分地区监管趋于明确，有利于渠道恢复常态化补货。对本季度而言，海外雾化订单的确认节奏，将直接影响营收表现与产能利用率，若新品动销良好，规模优势有助于改善单位制造成本。上一季度毛利率显示为-130.40%，这一异常值提示成本与核算口径中可能存在一次性或结构性因素，若本季度确认仍以规模化出货为主，毛利率的修复路径将成为投资者在财报中的重点关注。</p>\n<p><h4><b>股东结构与交易层面的短期波动</b></h4>\n7月29日公司出现大额转仓，约5.00亿股由一家托管行转至另一家托管行，转仓市值约43.35亿港币；同时，主要股东的全资孙公司已获授权未来12个月内减持不超过公司3.50%的股份。大额转仓与潜在减持预期对情绪与流动性构成一定扰动，特别是在业绩披露窗口期，对估值弹性形成约束。若业绩端出现超预期信号，基本面改善有望对冲交易面的供给压力；反之，若指标不及预期，股东层面变动可能放大短期波动。结合近期股价随政策与持股变动而出现的放大反应，财报期内的沟通质量与前瞻信息密度将直接影响资金对公司基本面的再定价。</p>\n<p><h4><b>利润率与现金配置的观察要点</b></h4>\n上一季度毛利率口径为-130.40%，与归母净利润仍为正值并不匹配，这一背离提示成本确认、存货调整或一次性项目的影响需要在中期业绩中被详细披露；本季度若收入端兑现度较高，制造费用摊薄与良率提升有望带动毛利率回归常态区间。公司近月披露以1.10亿美元认购境外票据，票息结构含固定与未来浮动安排，此类资金配置在资金安全与收益性之间取得平衡，有助于增强现金流的稳定性与利息收入，对净利率形成一定支撑。利润率修复的核心仍在产品组合与规模效应，若HNB与海外雾化新品出货占比提升，叠加制造侧效率优化，本季度到下半年的毛利率趋势有望改善。管理层在费用投放节奏与资本开支的安排，将影响利润端弹性释放的节奏，投资者需关注财报中的费用率拆解与未来季度的指引口径。</p>\n<p><h2><b>分析师观点</b></h2>\n从近期机构观点汇总看，看多声音占优。市场报道与研报摘要显示，多家机构认为公司电子雾化产品销售有望在中期业绩中超越此前逾10%的增长指引，同时全年HNB产品销售目标为20.00亿元人民币且下半年预计有新客户加入，带动收入与盈利的可见度提升。大和在7月阶段的观点指出，受益于产品销售有望超越指引与HNB客户引入，2026年至2028年的净利润复合增速有望达到约28.00%，并判断盈利或自2027年起进入更快增长阶段；该机构同时对估值与持股变动保持审慎，但核心逻辑仍围绕增长动能的逐步兑现。在看多框架下，机构强调三点依据：第一，HNB订单转化与政策推进叠加，全年目标明确，有利于提升对收入端的信心；第二，海外雾化订单出现复苏迹象，新品动销带来结构性增长，增量部分或具备更高的附加值；第三，资金与现金流配置稳健，新增美元票据利息回报可对净利率起到边际支撑。综合而言，机构多倾向于以基本面改善度作为估值修复的触发条件，当前看多观点占据上风，关注点聚焦在本季度收入兑现、毛利率修复与新业务落地的节奏与幅度。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"06969":"思摩尔国际"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197427677","content_text":"摘要\n思摩尔国际将于2026年08月19日盘后披露中期业绩，市场聚焦HNB推进与订单兑现节奏。\n市场预测\n当前公开渠道未见对本季度营收、毛利率、净利润或净利率、调整后每股收益的明确一致预期，公司层面亦未披露本季度量化指引，预测性数据暂不可得。公司主营聚焦电子雾化设备与APV，收入体量大且客户基础稳定。成长动能主要来自HNB业务推进，市场消息称全年HNB产品销售目标为20.00亿元人民币，但同比数据暂未披露。\n上季度回顾\n上季度公司营收约142.56亿，毛利率为-130.40%，归母净利润为2.55亿，净利率为6.29%，调整后每股收益未披露，同比数据暂未披露。单季归母净利润环比下降19.63%，利润率受成本项目与产品组合影响的迹象需在后续正式披露中进一步厘清。公司收入主要来自“电子雾化设备与组件及APV销售”，上季度实现约142.56亿收入，同比数据暂未披露。\n本季度展望\nHNB推进与政策进展带来的转化\n7月下旬市场关注加热卷烟国家标准进入征求意见阶段，带动板块情绪回暖，思摩尔国际的HNB相关业务因合规前景更加明朗而获得更高关注度。多家机构观点称，公司全年HNB产品销售目标为20.00亿元人民币，且有新客户预计在下半年加入，若按订单与交付节奏平滑至半年维度，本季度的接单与发货将决定全年目标的兑现路径。HNB产品在早期往往带来较高的单品价值，有助于拉动结构性收入增长，但毛利率能否同步修复仍取决于规模爬坡、良率与费用摊薄进度。结合前期股价对政策催化的反应，市场普遍把本季度视作验证HNB落地与客户转化的关键时点，一旦出货与储备订单披露优于预期，收入端弹性或先行体现。需要注意的是，HNB从样品导入到批量出货的周期较长，短期内收入体现在财报中的节奏仍可能不均匀，管理层在中期业绩沟通中的定性表述将影响市场对全年执行力的判断。\n海外雾化业务的订单与新品周期\n近期研报观点认为，公司电子雾化产品销售有望在中期业绩中超越此前逾10%的增长指引，这一判断来自于海外订单稳定与新品切换周期的叠加。若客户去库存基本结束，新口味与新结构的产品迭代将带来订单补库需求，叠加部分地区监管趋于明确，有利于渠道恢复常态化补货。对本季度而言，海外雾化订单的确认节奏，将直接影响营收表现与产能利用率，若新品动销良好，规模优势有助于改善单位制造成本。上一季度毛利率显示为-130.40%，这一异常值提示成本与核算口径中可能存在一次性或结构性因素，若本季度确认仍以规模化出货为主，毛利率的修复路径将成为投资者在财报中的重点关注。\n股东结构与交易层面的短期波动\n7月29日公司出现大额转仓，约5.00亿股由一家托管行转至另一家托管行，转仓市值约43.35亿港币；同时，主要股东的全资孙公司已获授权未来12个月内减持不超过公司3.50%的股份。大额转仓与潜在减持预期对情绪与流动性构成一定扰动，特别是在业绩披露窗口期，对估值弹性形成约束。若业绩端出现超预期信号，基本面改善有望对冲交易面的供给压力；反之，若指标不及预期，股东层面变动可能放大短期波动。结合近期股价随政策与持股变动而出现的放大反应，财报期内的沟通质量与前瞻信息密度将直接影响资金对公司基本面的再定价。\n利润率与现金配置的观察要点\n上一季度毛利率口径为-130.40%，与归母净利润仍为正值并不匹配，这一背离提示成本确认、存货调整或一次性项目的影响需要在中期业绩中被详细披露；本季度若收入端兑现度较高，制造费用摊薄与良率提升有望带动毛利率回归常态区间。公司近月披露以1.10亿美元认购境外票据，票息结构含固定与未来浮动安排，此类资金配置在资金安全与收益性之间取得平衡，有助于增强现金流的稳定性与利息收入，对净利率形成一定支撑。利润率修复的核心仍在产品组合与规模效应，若HNB与海外雾化新品出货占比提升，叠加制造侧效率优化，本季度到下半年的毛利率趋势有望改善。管理层在费用投放节奏与资本开支的安排，将影响利润端弹性释放的节奏，投资者需关注财报中的费用率拆解与未来季度的指引口径。\n分析师观点\n从近期机构观点汇总看，看多声音占优。市场报道与研报摘要显示，多家机构认为公司电子雾化产品销售有望在中期业绩中超越此前逾10%的增长指引，同时全年HNB产品销售目标为20.00亿元人民币且下半年预计有新客户加入，带动收入与盈利的可见度提升。大和在7月阶段的观点指出，受益于产品销售有望超越指引与HNB客户引入，2026年至2028年的净利润复合增速有望达到约28.00%，并判断盈利或自2027年起进入更快增长阶段；该机构同时对估值与持股变动保持审慎，但核心逻辑仍围绕增长动能的逐步兑现。在看多框架下，机构强调三点依据：第一，HNB订单转化与政策推进叠加，全年目标明确，有利于提升对收入端的信心；第二，海外雾化订单出现复苏迹象，新品动销带来结构性增长，增量部分或具备更高的附加值；第三，资金与现金流配置稳健，新增美元票据利息回报可对净利率起到边际支撑。综合而言，机构多倾向于以基本面改善度作为估值修复的触发条件，当前看多观点占据上风，关注点聚焦在本季度收入兑现、毛利率修复与新业务落地的节奏与幅度。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06969":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":570463060365456,"gmtCreate":1780277408834,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