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- Ramesh78Ramesh78
  ·2021-11-21
  $Apple(AAPL)$good
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- Ramesh78Ramesh78
  ·2021-11-21
  $Apple(AAPL)$good
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- Ramesh78Ramesh78
  ·2021-11-21
  Good 👍
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- Ramesh78Ramesh78
  ·2021-10-15
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Ramesh78Ramesh78
  ·2021-10-12
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Ramesh78Ramesh78
  ·2021-10-08
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  Is Tesla's Stock Forecast Impacted By Rivian R1T Electric Truck?<blockquote>特斯拉的股票预测是否受到Rivian R1T电动卡车的影响？</blockquote>
  Summary Tesla does not have a large model range right now and is thus dependent on new entrants suc
  Is Tesla's Stock Forecast Impacted By Rivian R1T Electric Truck?<blockquote>特斯拉的股票预测是否受到Rivian R1T电动卡车的影响？</blockquote>
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- Ramesh78Ramesh78
  ·2021-10-08
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  September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>
  After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the mo
  September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>
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- Ramesh78Ramesh78
  ·2021-10-07
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Ramesh78Ramesh78
  ·2021-10-07
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Ramesh78Ramesh78
  ·2021-10-07
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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15:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Tesla's Stock Forecast Impacted By Rivian R1T Electric Truck?<blockquote>特斯拉的股票预测是否受到Rivian R1T电动卡车的影响？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154698505","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla does not have a large model range right now and is thus dependent on new entrants suc","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla does not have a large model range right now and is thus dependent on new entrants such as the Cybertruck - which recently got delayed.</li>  <li>Peers are entering the highly attractive electric truck space way before Tesla, including Rivian with its R1T and Ford with the F-150 Lightning.</li>  <li>This could hurt Tesla's brand image as well as its stock price, as Tesla has lost the first-mover advantage in this important future market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccf7c15134ff043f2c3df0d488a4f631\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>David Becker/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉目前没有大型车型系列，因此依赖于最近被推迟的 Cybertruck 等新进入者。</li><li>同行们比特斯拉更早进入极具吸引力的电动卡车领域，包括Rivian的 R1T 和福特的 F-150 Lightning。</li><li>这可能会损害特斯拉的品牌形象及其股价，因为特斯拉已经失去了在这个重要的未来市场的先发优势。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>大卫·贝克尔/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA)is priced for massive growth over the coming years. The company's industry position is strong today, but competition is a concern. Rivian Automotive's (RIVN) R1T truck will gain a sizeable presence in the electric truck space, which could hurt the outlook for Tesla's Cybertruck that is still about two years away from mass production. Generally, this space should be large enough to accommodate several players a couple of years from now, but the fact that Tesla has lost its first-mover advantage is naturally not a positive. Overall, Tesla's shares seem pretty expensive for where the company stands today, but depending on market sentiment, shares may still run higher.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）预计未来几年将实现大幅增长。该公司如今的行业地位很强，但竞争令人担忧。Rivian汽车公司 (RIVN) 的 R1T 卡车将在电动卡车领域获得相当大的份额，这可能会损害特斯拉 Cybertruck 的前景，该卡车距离量产还有大约两年的时间。一般来说，这个空间应该足够大，可以容纳几年后的几名球员，但特斯拉失去先发优势的事实自然不是一个积极因素。总体而言，特斯拉目前的股价似乎相当昂贵，但根据市场情绪，股价仍有可能走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Rivian Publicly Traded?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian公开交易吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian Automotive is, so far, not publicly traded. The company plans to go public in the near term, however, as Rivian has filed theS-1for its initial public offering a couple of days ago. The company seeks to sell 10% of its shares for around $8 billion, which would value the company at $80 billion. For a company that has just recently started mass-producing its first model, that seems quite expensive, but then again, Rivian is backed by companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)and Ford(NYSE:F)and has a compelling product and the first-mover advantage in the electric truck market.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，Rivian汽车公司尚未公开交易。然而，该公司计划在不久的将来上市，因为Rivian几天前已经提交了 THES-1 进行首次公开募股。该公司寻求以约 80 亿美元的价格出售 10% 的股份，这将使公司估值达到 800 亿美元。对于一家最近刚刚开始量产首款车型的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵，但话说回来，Rivian得到了亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）和福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等公司的支持，并且拥有引人注目的产品和电动卡车市场的先发优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Is Rivian Different From Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian和特斯拉有什么不同？</b></blockquote></p><p> The two companies are active in the same industry, but there are vast differences between them. The most obvious one is the size and scale of the company -- Tesla is currently producing around 900,000 vehicles a year, while Rivian has just begun producing its first model. Tesla operates several factories across different continents and owns a network of stores and superchargers, while the same is not true for Rivian. Last but not least, Tesla is ambitious to become a major player in energy storage, solar, etc. These ventures are not profitable yet, which limits the current value of these business units, but Tesla is clearly more diversified across the whole \"new energy\" industry compared to Rivian, which is an EV manufacturer solely.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司活跃在同一行业，但它们之间存在着巨大的差异。最明显的一个是公司的规模和规模——特斯拉目前每年生产约90万辆汽车，而Rivian刚刚开始生产其第一款车型。特斯拉在不同的大洲经营着几家工厂，并拥有一个商店和超级充电站网络，而Rivian的情况并非如此。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，特斯拉雄心勃勃地成为储能、太阳能等领域的主要参与者。这些企业尚未盈利，这限制了这些业务部门的当前价值，但与仅仅是电动汽车制造商的Rivian相比，特斯拉在整个“新能源”行业显然更加多元化。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's way larger size and established operations also lead to another important difference -- Tesla is, unlike Rivian, profitable and able to self-fund its operations and capital expenditures, which makes it less dependent on capital markets. Rivian will, for the foreseeable future, rely on capital markets to fund its future growth.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉更大的规模和成熟的运营也导致了另一个重要的区别——与Rivian不同，特斯拉是盈利的，并且能够为其运营和资本支出提供自筹资金，这使其对资本市场的依赖较小。在可预见的未来，Rivian将依赖资本市场为其未来的增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Will Tesla Be Impacted By Rivian's R1T Truck?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉会受到 Rivian R1T 卡车的影响吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla has, in the past, grown its production volumes and revenues reliably through two growth drivers: The introduction of new models, and through increasing sales volumes for its existing models. Over the last couple of quarters, almost all of Tesla's sales stemmed from Model 3 and Model Y sales, as X and S sales took a backseat. Future growth will likely be driven by increasing sales of Tesla's 3 and Y models, but the company is also dependent on the introduction of new models to some degree. The Roadster 2 will not be a volume model, but a lot of hope rests on Tesla's Cybertruck. The Cybertruck, which was presented in 2019, will go into production towards the end of 2022, according to CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk. Mass production, however, is still further away, and targeted for the end of 2023, or about two years from now.</p><p><blockquote>过去，特斯拉通过两个增长动力可靠地增长了产量和收入：推出新车型和增加现有车型的销量。在过去的几个季度里，特斯拉几乎所有的销量都来自 Model 3 和 Model Y 的销量，而 X 和 S 的销量则退居二线。未来的增长可能会受到特斯拉 3 和 Y 车型销量增长的推动，但该公司在一定程度上也依赖于新车型的推出。Roadster 2 不会是一款量产车型，但特斯拉的 Cybertruck 寄予厚望。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 表示，Cybertruck 于 2019 年推出，将于 2022 年底投入生产。然而，大规模生产还有很长的路要走，目标是到 2023 年底，也就是大约两年后。</blockquote></p><p> When we consider the fact that Tesla has oftentimes missed its own timelines, be it robo-taxis, the Roadster 2, or others, it seems possible that the Cybertruck will be delayed further, and may not be mass-produced before 2024. This would be the case if Tesla misses current estimates by a couple of months, which wouldn't be an overly large surprise. By that time, Rivian will have produced its R1T truck for a couple of years, and others will have entered the attractive electric truck market as well. Ford, for example, is on track to bring its F-150 Lighting to the market soon, as&nbsp;pre-production&nbsp;started in September, and market entry is just a matter of months.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到特斯拉经常错过自己的时间表时，无论是机器人出租车、Roadster 2 还是其他产品，Cybertruck 似乎有可能进一步推迟，并且可能不会在 2024 年之前量产。如果特斯拉比目前的预期晚几个月，情况就会如此，这并不令人意外。到那时，Rivian将生产其 R1T 卡车几年，其他卡车也将进入有吸引力的电动卡车市场。例如，福特有望很快将其 F-150 照明产品推向市场，预生产已于 9 月份开始，进入市场只需几个月的时间。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The competition from Rivian's R1T and Ford's F-150 could impact Tesla in several ways. First, the fact that the Cybertruck will be late to the market relative to competitors' products will mean that those customers that are very eager to buy an electric truck will go with Rivian or Ford, and not Tesla. Those very eager customers do likely include many that are willing to pay above-average prices, which will allow Ford and Rivian to absorb buying power that is then not available for Tesla when it brings out its Cybertruck two years later.</p><p><blockquote>来自 Rivian R1T 和福特 F-150 的竞争可能会在多个方面影响特斯拉。首先，相对于竞争对手的产品，Cybertruck 上市时间较晚，这意味着那些非常渴望购买电动卡车的客户将选择Rivian或福特，而不是特斯拉。这些非常热切的客户可能确实包括许多愿意支付高于平均水平价格的客户，这将使福特和Rivian能够吸收两年后特斯拉推出 Cybertruck 时无法获得的购买力。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, the fact that the R1T and the F-150 Lighting will be on the roads well before the Cybertruck is available could hurt Tesla's image as a key electric truck manufacturer. Tesla has the brand advantage in EVs, generally, thanks to its first-mover advantage. But with it being late in the truck space, this first-mover advantage and the increased brand recognition could fall to Rivian and Ford instead of Tesla. As long as Rivian's and Ford's products satisfy customers (which is not guaranteed), truck buyers might build brand loyalty with Rivian and Ford, which could hurt Tesla's ability to sell its Cybertruck and future electric trucks in the long run. Once the opportunity to be a first-mover is missed, others have the advantage, similar to how Tesla has an advantage in selling electric cars today.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，R1T 和 F-150 照明将在 Cybertruck 上市之前很久就上路，这一事实可能会损害特斯拉作为主要电动卡车制造商的形象。总体而言，由于其先发优势，特斯拉在电动汽车领域拥有品牌优势。但由于它在卡车领域起步较晚，这种先发优势和不断提高的品牌知名度可能会落入Rivian和福特手中，而不是特斯拉手中。只要 Rivian 和福特的产品让客户满意（这不能保证），卡车买家可能会对Rivian和福特建立品牌忠诚度，从长远来看，这可能会损害特斯拉销售其 Cybertruck 和未来电动卡车的能力。一旦错过了成为先行者的机会，其他人就有了优势，类似于特斯拉今天在销售电动汽车方面的优势。</blockquote></p><p> Last but not least, successful launches by Rivian and Ford could also impact Tesla's stock valuation. In case both Rivian and Ford are able to scale up production well and sell large amounts of electric trucks before the Cybertruck is released, investors interested in EV stocks may start to divert away from Tesla. If Rivian is successful in rolling out an electric truck well before Tesla, some current Tesla shareholders may decide to go with Rivian instead, or to split investments between the two companies. This could, in turn, lead to lower demand for Tesla's shares and to some selling pressure, which would be a negative for TSLA stock.</p><p><blockquote>最后但同样重要的是，Rivian和福特的成功推出也可能影响特斯拉的股票估值。如果Rivian和福特都能够在 Cybertruck 发布之前很好地扩大生产规模并销售大量电动卡车，对电动汽车股票感兴趣的投资者可能会开始转向特斯拉。如果Rivian在特斯拉之前成功推出电动卡车，特斯拉的一些现有股东可能会决定选择Rivian，或者在两家公司之间分割投资。这反过来可能会导致对特斯拉股票的需求下降并带来一些抛售压力，这将对特斯拉股票产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> None of these is guaranteed, and it is, of course, possible that Tesla beats its own timeline and that the Cybertruck will be made available sooner than expected. It is also possible that manufacturing problems for the R1T or the F-150 Lightning emerge, which would mean that Tesla has more time to catch up. But for now it looks like Rivian and Ford are in the leadership position in the electric truck space, and Tesla being behind its competitors naturally is a negative for the company and its stock. This could hurt demand for the Cybertruck, hurt Tesla's brand image as a technological leader and first-mover, and it could make its shares less compelling relative to those of other EV manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不能保证，当然，特斯拉有可能超越自己的时间表，并且 Cybertruck 将比预期更早上市。R1T 或 F-150 Lightning 也有可能出现制造问题，这意味着特斯拉有更多时间迎头赶上。但目前看来，Rivian和福特在电动卡车领域处于领先地位，而特斯拉落后于竞争对手自然对该公司及其股票不利。这可能会损害对 Cybertruck 的需求，损害特斯拉作为技术领导者和先行者的品牌形象，并且可能会使其股价相对于其他电动汽车制造商的股价不那么有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Tesla Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> The electric truck space will be large enough to allow several players to do well a couple of years from now, thus Tesla being behind with its Cybertruck does not mean that the model will not sell well. But it is still important to know whether a company will hold a 30% market share or a 20% market share, for example, five years from now. With Tesla being behind competitors, I do believe that it is not very likely that Tesla will dominate the US electric truck space the same way it dominates the US electric car space today.</p><p><blockquote>电动卡车的空间将足够大，可以让几家公司在几年后表现出色，因此特斯拉的 Cybertruck 落后并不意味着该车型不会卖得好。但了解一家公司在五年后是占据30%的市场份额还是20%的市场份额仍然很重要。由于特斯拉落后于竞争对手，我确实相信特斯拉不太可能像今天主导美国电动汽车领域那样主导美国电动卡车领域。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla will still see its volumes and revenue grow over the coming years, but growth may not be meaningful enough to justify the current valuation. Tesla is forecasted to generate revenue of $51 billion this year, $67 billion in 2022, and $83 billion in 2023:</p><p><blockquote>未来几年，特斯拉的销量和收入仍将增长，但增长可能不足以证明当前估值的合理性。特斯拉预计今年的收入将达到 510 亿美元，2022 年将达到 670 亿美元，2023 年将达到 830 亿美元：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c2d74e02403e2b6edbc187bf103c6bb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This equates to a growth rate of 31% next year and 24% in 2023. Note that expected revenue growth is less than the 50% average volume growth expected by Tesla, due to the fact that current analyst models predict that Tesla may not be able to deliver on that goal, while average sales price compression could also be a headwind for revenue growth. Overall, revenue growth in the 20%-30% range is still attractive, of course, compared to legacy auto players that do not manage to grow this meaningfully.</p><p><blockquote>这相当于明年的增长率为 31%，2023 年为 24%。请注意，预期收入增长低于特斯拉预期的 50% 平均销量增长，因为当前分析师模型预测特斯拉可能无法实现这一目标，而平均销售价格压缩也可能成为收入增长的阻力。总体而言，当然，与无法实现有意义增长的传统汽车制造商相比，20%-30% 范围内的收入增长仍然具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With 1.12 billion diluted shares, Tesla is currently valued at $875 billion, which equates to a forward sales multiple of 17. Likewise, the sales multiples for 2022 and 2023 stand at 13 and 11, respectively. These are not only very high valuations relative to legacy auto makers, but even relative to some of the other EV players. NIO(NYSE:NIO)and XPeng(NYSE:XPEV), for example, which are growing faster than Tesla, are both valued at 6x 2022's expected revenue today, which makes for a little less than half of Tesla's valuation. Lucid(NASDAQ:LCID), which is a pretty new market entrant, and which should grow faster than Tesla on a relative basis over the coming years, is valued at&nbsp;10x&nbsp;2023's expected revenue, versus Tesla's 11x 2023's expected revenue. Overall, I do thus believe that Tesla's shares are too expensive at current prices. This does not at all mean that Tesla is a bad company or that the company will not generate any business growth, but valuations should always be considered. The fact that Tesla is way behind competitors in the electric truck segment is another reason, for me, to believe that Tesla's current valuation is too high -- shares are priced for perfection, and Tesla is far from being perfect, even though the company is solid for sure.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉稀释后持有 11.2 亿股股票，目前估值为 8,750 亿美元，相当于远期销售倍数为 17。同样，2022 年和 2023 年的销售倍数分别为 13 和 11。这些估值不仅相对于传统汽车制造商来说非常高，甚至相对于其他一些电动汽车制造商来说也是如此。例如，增长速度快于特斯拉的蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）目前的估值均为 2022 年预期收入的 6 倍，略低于特斯拉估值的一半。Lucid（纳斯达克股票代码：LCID）是一家相当新的市场进入者，未来几年的相对增长速度应该会超过特斯拉，其估值为 2023 年预期收入的 10 倍，而特斯拉为 2023 年预期收入的 11 倍。总体而言，我确实认为特斯拉的股价以目前的价格计算太贵了。这并不意味着特斯拉是一家糟糕的公司，或者该公司不会产生任何业务增长，但应该始终考虑估值。对我来说，特斯拉在电动卡车领域远远落后于竞争对手的事实是我认为特斯拉目前估值过高的另一个原因——股票定价是为了完美，而特斯拉远非完美，尽管该公司肯定是稳固的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's overly high valuation versus legacy players with growing EV businesses, such as Ford or Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY), and Tesla's premium valuation versus higher-growth EV peers makes me believe that shares are an avoid at current prices. Locking in gains could be a good idea for those that are long the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与福特或大众汽车（OTCPK:VWAGY）等电动汽车业务不断增长的传统企业相比，特斯拉的估值过高，以及特斯拉相对于增长较高的电动汽车同行的估值溢价，让我相信以当前价格来看，该股是一种回避。对于那些做多股票的人来说，锁定收益可能是一个好主意。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Tesla's Stock Forecast Impacted By Rivian R1T Electric Truck?<blockquote>特斯拉的股票预测是否受到Rivian R1T电动卡车的影响？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Tesla's Stock Forecast Impacted By Rivian R1T Electric Truck?<blockquote>特斯拉的股票预测是否受到Rivian R1T电动卡车的影响？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-08 15:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla does not have a large model range right now and is thus dependent on new entrants such as the Cybertruck - which recently got delayed.</li>  <li>Peers are entering the highly attractive electric truck space way before Tesla, including Rivian with its R1T and Ford with the F-150 Lightning.</li>  <li>This could hurt Tesla's brand image as well as its stock price, as Tesla has lost the first-mover advantage in this important future market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccf7c15134ff043f2c3df0d488a4f631\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>David Becker/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉目前没有大型车型系列，因此依赖于最近被推迟的 Cybertruck 等新进入者。</li><li>同行们比特斯拉更早进入极具吸引力的电动卡车领域，包括Rivian的 R1T 和福特的 F-150 Lightning。</li><li>这可能会损害特斯拉的品牌形象及其股价，因为特斯拉已经失去了在这个重要的未来市场的先发优势。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>大卫·贝克尔/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA)is priced for massive growth over the coming years. The company's industry position is strong today, but competition is a concern. Rivian Automotive's (RIVN) R1T truck will gain a sizeable presence in the electric truck space, which could hurt the outlook for Tesla's Cybertruck that is still about two years away from mass production. Generally, this space should be large enough to accommodate several players a couple of years from now, but the fact that Tesla has lost its first-mover advantage is naturally not a positive. Overall, Tesla's shares seem pretty expensive for where the company stands today, but depending on market sentiment, shares may still run higher.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）预计未来几年将实现大幅增长。该公司如今的行业地位很强，但竞争令人担忧。Rivian汽车公司 (RIVN) 的 R1T 卡车将在电动卡车领域获得相当大的份额，这可能会损害特斯拉 Cybertruck 的前景，该卡车距离量产还有大约两年的时间。一般来说，这个空间应该足够大，可以容纳几年后的几名球员，但特斯拉失去先发优势的事实自然不是一个积极因素。总体而言，特斯拉目前的股价似乎相当昂贵，但根据市场情绪，股价仍有可能走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Rivian Publicly Traded?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian公开交易吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian Automotive is, so far, not publicly traded. The company plans to go public in the near term, however, as Rivian has filed theS-1for its initial public offering a couple of days ago. The company seeks to sell 10% of its shares for around $8 billion, which would value the company at $80 billion. For a company that has just recently started mass-producing its first model, that seems quite expensive, but then again, Rivian is backed by companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)and Ford(NYSE:F)and has a compelling product and the first-mover advantage in the electric truck market.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，Rivian汽车公司尚未公开交易。然而，该公司计划在不久的将来上市，因为Rivian几天前已经提交了 THES-1 进行首次公开募股。该公司寻求以约 80 亿美元的价格出售 10% 的股份，这将使公司估值达到 800 亿美元。对于一家最近刚刚开始量产首款车型的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵，但话说回来，Rivian得到了亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）和福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等公司的支持，并且拥有引人注目的产品和电动卡车市场的先发优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Is Rivian Different From Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian和特斯拉有什么不同？</b></blockquote></p><p> The two companies are active in the same industry, but there are vast differences between them. The most obvious one is the size and scale of the company -- Tesla is currently producing around 900,000 vehicles a year, while Rivian has just begun producing its first model. Tesla operates several factories across different continents and owns a network of stores and superchargers, while the same is not true for Rivian. Last but not least, Tesla is ambitious to become a major player in energy storage, solar, etc. These ventures are not profitable yet, which limits the current value of these business units, but Tesla is clearly more diversified across the whole \"new energy\" industry compared to Rivian, which is an EV manufacturer solely.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司活跃在同一行业，但它们之间存在着巨大的差异。最明显的一个是公司的规模和规模——特斯拉目前每年生产约90万辆汽车，而Rivian刚刚开始生产其第一款车型。特斯拉在不同的大洲经营着几家工厂，并拥有一个商店和超级充电站网络，而Rivian的情况并非如此。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，特斯拉雄心勃勃地成为储能、太阳能等领域的主要参与者。这些企业尚未盈利，这限制了这些业务部门的当前价值，但与仅仅是电动汽车制造商的Rivian相比，特斯拉在整个“新能源”行业显然更加多元化。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's way larger size and established operations also lead to another important difference -- Tesla is, unlike Rivian, profitable and able to self-fund its operations and capital expenditures, which makes it less dependent on capital markets. Rivian will, for the foreseeable future, rely on capital markets to fund its future growth.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉更大的规模和成熟的运营也导致了另一个重要的区别——与Rivian不同，特斯拉是盈利的，并且能够为其运营和资本支出提供自筹资金，这使其对资本市场的依赖较小。在可预见的未来，Rivian将依赖资本市场为其未来的增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Will Tesla Be Impacted By Rivian's R1T Truck?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉会受到 Rivian R1T 卡车的影响吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla has, in the past, grown its production volumes and revenues reliably through two growth drivers: The introduction of new models, and through increasing sales volumes for its existing models. Over the last couple of quarters, almost all of Tesla's sales stemmed from Model 3 and Model Y sales, as X and S sales took a backseat. Future growth will likely be driven by increasing sales of Tesla's 3 and Y models, but the company is also dependent on the introduction of new models to some degree. The Roadster 2 will not be a volume model, but a lot of hope rests on Tesla's Cybertruck. The Cybertruck, which was presented in 2019, will go into production towards the end of 2022, according to CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk. Mass production, however, is still further away, and targeted for the end of 2023, or about two years from now.</p><p><blockquote>过去，特斯拉通过两个增长动力可靠地增长了产量和收入：推出新车型和增加现有车型的销量。在过去的几个季度里，特斯拉几乎所有的销量都来自 Model 3 和 Model Y 的销量，而 X 和 S 的销量则退居二线。未来的增长可能会受到特斯拉 3 和 Y 车型销量增长的推动，但该公司在一定程度上也依赖于新车型的推出。Roadster 2 不会是一款量产车型，但特斯拉的 Cybertruck 寄予厚望。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 表示，Cybertruck 于 2019 年推出，将于 2022 年底投入生产。然而，大规模生产还有很长的路要走，目标是到 2023 年底，也就是大约两年后。</blockquote></p><p> When we consider the fact that Tesla has oftentimes missed its own timelines, be it robo-taxis, the Roadster 2, or others, it seems possible that the Cybertruck will be delayed further, and may not be mass-produced before 2024. This would be the case if Tesla misses current estimates by a couple of months, which wouldn't be an overly large surprise. By that time, Rivian will have produced its R1T truck for a couple of years, and others will have entered the attractive electric truck market as well. Ford, for example, is on track to bring its F-150 Lighting to the market soon, as&nbsp;pre-production&nbsp;started in September, and market entry is just a matter of months.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到特斯拉经常错过自己的时间表时，无论是机器人出租车、Roadster 2 还是其他产品，Cybertruck 似乎有可能进一步推迟，并且可能不会在 2024 年之前量产。如果特斯拉比目前的预期晚几个月，情况就会如此，这并不令人意外。到那时，Rivian将生产其 R1T 卡车几年，其他卡车也将进入有吸引力的电动卡车市场。例如，福特有望很快将其 F-150 照明产品推向市场，预生产已于 9 月份开始，进入市场只需几个月的时间。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The competition from Rivian's R1T and Ford's F-150 could impact Tesla in several ways. First, the fact that the Cybertruck will be late to the market relative to competitors' products will mean that those customers that are very eager to buy an electric truck will go with Rivian or Ford, and not Tesla. Those very eager customers do likely include many that are willing to pay above-average prices, which will allow Ford and Rivian to absorb buying power that is then not available for Tesla when it brings out its Cybertruck two years later.</p><p><blockquote>来自 Rivian R1T 和福特 F-150 的竞争可能会在多个方面影响特斯拉。首先，相对于竞争对手的产品，Cybertruck 上市时间较晚，这意味着那些非常渴望购买电动卡车的客户将选择Rivian或福特，而不是特斯拉。这些非常热切的客户可能确实包括许多愿意支付高于平均水平价格的客户，这将使福特和Rivian能够吸收两年后特斯拉推出 Cybertruck 时无法获得的购买力。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, the fact that the R1T and the F-150 Lighting will be on the roads well before the Cybertruck is available could hurt Tesla's image as a key electric truck manufacturer. Tesla has the brand advantage in EVs, generally, thanks to its first-mover advantage. But with it being late in the truck space, this first-mover advantage and the increased brand recognition could fall to Rivian and Ford instead of Tesla. As long as Rivian's and Ford's products satisfy customers (which is not guaranteed), truck buyers might build brand loyalty with Rivian and Ford, which could hurt Tesla's ability to sell its Cybertruck and future electric trucks in the long run. Once the opportunity to be a first-mover is missed, others have the advantage, similar to how Tesla has an advantage in selling electric cars today.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，R1T 和 F-150 照明将在 Cybertruck 上市之前很久就上路，这一事实可能会损害特斯拉作为主要电动卡车制造商的形象。总体而言，由于其先发优势，特斯拉在电动汽车领域拥有品牌优势。但由于它在卡车领域起步较晚，这种先发优势和不断提高的品牌知名度可能会落入Rivian和福特手中，而不是特斯拉手中。只要 Rivian 和福特的产品让客户满意（这不能保证），卡车买家可能会对Rivian和福特建立品牌忠诚度，从长远来看，这可能会损害特斯拉销售其 Cybertruck 和未来电动卡车的能力。一旦错过了成为先行者的机会，其他人就有了优势，类似于特斯拉今天在销售电动汽车方面的优势。</blockquote></p><p> Last but not least, successful launches by Rivian and Ford could also impact Tesla's stock valuation. In case both Rivian and Ford are able to scale up production well and sell large amounts of electric trucks before the Cybertruck is released, investors interested in EV stocks may start to divert away from Tesla. If Rivian is successful in rolling out an electric truck well before Tesla, some current Tesla shareholders may decide to go with Rivian instead, or to split investments between the two companies. This could, in turn, lead to lower demand for Tesla's shares and to some selling pressure, which would be a negative for TSLA stock.</p><p><blockquote>最后但同样重要的是，Rivian和福特的成功推出也可能影响特斯拉的股票估值。如果Rivian和福特都能够在 Cybertruck 发布之前很好地扩大生产规模并销售大量电动卡车，对电动汽车股票感兴趣的投资者可能会开始转向特斯拉。如果Rivian在特斯拉之前成功推出电动卡车，特斯拉的一些现有股东可能会决定选择Rivian，或者在两家公司之间分割投资。这反过来可能会导致对特斯拉股票的需求下降并带来一些抛售压力，这将对特斯拉股票产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> None of these is guaranteed, and it is, of course, possible that Tesla beats its own timeline and that the Cybertruck will be made available sooner than expected. It is also possible that manufacturing problems for the R1T or the F-150 Lightning emerge, which would mean that Tesla has more time to catch up. But for now it looks like Rivian and Ford are in the leadership position in the electric truck space, and Tesla being behind its competitors naturally is a negative for the company and its stock. This could hurt demand for the Cybertruck, hurt Tesla's brand image as a technological leader and first-mover, and it could make its shares less compelling relative to those of other EV manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不能保证，当然，特斯拉有可能超越自己的时间表，并且 Cybertruck 将比预期更早上市。R1T 或 F-150 Lightning 也有可能出现制造问题，这意味着特斯拉有更多时间迎头赶上。但目前看来，Rivian和福特在电动卡车领域处于领先地位，而特斯拉落后于竞争对手自然对该公司及其股票不利。这可能会损害对 Cybertruck 的需求，损害特斯拉作为技术领导者和先行者的品牌形象，并且可能会使其股价相对于其他电动汽车制造商的股价不那么有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Tesla Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> The electric truck space will be large enough to allow several players to do well a couple of years from now, thus Tesla being behind with its Cybertruck does not mean that the model will not sell well. But it is still important to know whether a company will hold a 30% market share or a 20% market share, for example, five years from now. With Tesla being behind competitors, I do believe that it is not very likely that Tesla will dominate the US electric truck space the same way it dominates the US electric car space today.</p><p><blockquote>电动卡车的空间将足够大，可以让几家公司在几年后表现出色，因此特斯拉的 Cybertruck 落后并不意味着该车型不会卖得好。但了解一家公司在五年后是占据30%的市场份额还是20%的市场份额仍然很重要。由于特斯拉落后于竞争对手，我确实相信特斯拉不太可能像今天主导美国电动汽车领域那样主导美国电动卡车领域。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla will still see its volumes and revenue grow over the coming years, but growth may not be meaningful enough to justify the current valuation. Tesla is forecasted to generate revenue of $51 billion this year, $67 billion in 2022, and $83 billion in 2023:</p><p><blockquote>未来几年，特斯拉的销量和收入仍将增长，但增长可能不足以证明当前估值的合理性。特斯拉预计今年的收入将达到 510 亿美元，2022 年将达到 670 亿美元，2023 年将达到 830 亿美元：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c2d74e02403e2b6edbc187bf103c6bb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This equates to a growth rate of 31% next year and 24% in 2023. Note that expected revenue growth is less than the 50% average volume growth expected by Tesla, due to the fact that current analyst models predict that Tesla may not be able to deliver on that goal, while average sales price compression could also be a headwind for revenue growth. Overall, revenue growth in the 20%-30% range is still attractive, of course, compared to legacy auto players that do not manage to grow this meaningfully.</p><p><blockquote>这相当于明年的增长率为 31%，2023 年为 24%。请注意，预期收入增长低于特斯拉预期的 50% 平均销量增长，因为当前分析师模型预测特斯拉可能无法实现这一目标，而平均销售价格压缩也可能成为收入增长的阻力。总体而言，当然，与无法实现有意义增长的传统汽车制造商相比，20%-30% 范围内的收入增长仍然具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With 1.12 billion diluted shares, Tesla is currently valued at $875 billion, which equates to a forward sales multiple of 17. Likewise, the sales multiples for 2022 and 2023 stand at 13 and 11, respectively. These are not only very high valuations relative to legacy auto makers, but even relative to some of the other EV players. NIO(NYSE:NIO)and XPeng(NYSE:XPEV), for example, which are growing faster than Tesla, are both valued at 6x 2022's expected revenue today, which makes for a little less than half of Tesla's valuation. Lucid(NASDAQ:LCID), which is a pretty new market entrant, and which should grow faster than Tesla on a relative basis over the coming years, is valued at&nbsp;10x&nbsp;2023's expected revenue, versus Tesla's 11x 2023's expected revenue. Overall, I do thus believe that Tesla's shares are too expensive at current prices. This does not at all mean that Tesla is a bad company or that the company will not generate any business growth, but valuations should always be considered. The fact that Tesla is way behind competitors in the electric truck segment is another reason, for me, to believe that Tesla's current valuation is too high -- shares are priced for perfection, and Tesla is far from being perfect, even though the company is solid for sure.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉稀释后持有 11.2 亿股股票，目前估值为 8,750 亿美元，相当于远期销售倍数为 17。同样，2022 年和 2023 年的销售倍数分别为 13 和 11。这些估值不仅相对于传统汽车制造商来说非常高，甚至相对于其他一些电动汽车制造商来说也是如此。例如，增长速度快于特斯拉的蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）目前的估值均为 2022 年预期收入的 6 倍，略低于特斯拉估值的一半。Lucid（纳斯达克股票代码：LCID）是一家相当新的市场进入者，未来几年的相对增长速度应该会超过特斯拉，其估值为 2023 年预期收入的 10 倍，而特斯拉为 2023 年预期收入的 11 倍。总体而言，我确实认为特斯拉的股价以目前的价格计算太贵了。这并不意味着特斯拉是一家糟糕的公司，或者该公司不会产生任何业务增长，但应该始终考虑估值。对我来说，特斯拉在电动卡车领域远远落后于竞争对手的事实是我认为特斯拉目前估值过高的另一个原因——股票定价是为了完美，而特斯拉远非完美，尽管该公司肯定是稳固的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's overly high valuation versus legacy players with growing EV businesses, such as Ford or Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY), and Tesla's premium valuation versus higher-growth EV peers makes me believe that shares are an avoid at current prices. Locking in gains could be a good idea for those that are long the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与福特或大众汽车（OTCPK:VWAGY）等电动汽车业务不断增长的传统企业相比，特斯拉的估值过高，以及特斯拉相对于增长较高的电动汽车同行的估值溢价，让我相信以当前价格来看，该股是一种回避。对于那些做多股票的人来说，锁定收益可能是一个好主意。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458901-tesla-stock-forecast-rivian-r1t-electric-truck\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458901-tesla-stock-forecast-rivian-r1t-electric-truck","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154698505","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla does not have a large model range right now and is thus dependent on new entrants such as the Cybertruck - which recently got delayed.\nPeers are entering the highly attractive electric truck space way before Tesla, including Rivian with its R1T and Ford with the F-150 Lightning.\nThis could hurt Tesla's brand image as well as its stock price, as Tesla has lost the first-mover advantage in this important future market.\n\nDavid Becker/Getty Images News\nArticle Thesis\nTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA)is priced for massive growth over the coming years. The company's industry position is strong today, but competition is a concern. Rivian Automotive's (RIVN) R1T truck will gain a sizeable presence in the electric truck space, which could hurt the outlook for Tesla's Cybertruck that is still about two years away from mass production. Generally, this space should be large enough to accommodate several players a couple of years from now, but the fact that Tesla has lost its first-mover advantage is naturally not a positive. Overall, Tesla's shares seem pretty expensive for where the company stands today, but depending on market sentiment, shares may still run higher.\nIs Rivian Publicly Traded?\nRivian Automotive is, so far, not publicly traded. The company plans to go public in the near term, however, as Rivian has filed theS-1for its initial public offering a couple of days ago. The company seeks to sell 10% of its shares for around $8 billion, which would value the company at $80 billion. For a company that has just recently started mass-producing its first model, that seems quite expensive, but then again, Rivian is backed by companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)and Ford(NYSE:F)and has a compelling product and the first-mover advantage in the electric truck market.\nHow Is Rivian Different From Tesla?\nThe two companies are active in the same industry, but there are vast differences between them. The most obvious one is the size and scale of the company -- Tesla is currently producing around 900,000 vehicles a year, while Rivian has just begun producing its first model. Tesla operates several factories across different continents and owns a network of stores and superchargers, while the same is not true for Rivian. Last but not least, Tesla is ambitious to become a major player in energy storage, solar, etc. These ventures are not profitable yet, which limits the current value of these business units, but Tesla is clearly more diversified across the whole \"new energy\" industry compared to Rivian, which is an EV manufacturer solely.\nTesla's way larger size and established operations also lead to another important difference -- Tesla is, unlike Rivian, profitable and able to self-fund its operations and capital expenditures, which makes it less dependent on capital markets. Rivian will, for the foreseeable future, rely on capital markets to fund its future growth.\nWill Tesla Be Impacted By Rivian's R1T Truck?\nTesla has, in the past, grown its production volumes and revenues reliably through two growth drivers: The introduction of new models, and through increasing sales volumes for its existing models. Over the last couple of quarters, almost all of Tesla's sales stemmed from Model 3 and Model Y sales, as X and S sales took a backseat. Future growth will likely be driven by increasing sales of Tesla's 3 and Y models, but the company is also dependent on the introduction of new models to some degree. The Roadster 2 will not be a volume model, but a lot of hope rests on Tesla's Cybertruck. The Cybertruck, which was presented in 2019, will go into production towards the end of 2022, according to CEO Elon Musk. Mass production, however, is still further away, and targeted for the end of 2023, or about two years from now.\nWhen we consider the fact that Tesla has oftentimes missed its own timelines, be it robo-taxis, the Roadster 2, or others, it seems possible that the Cybertruck will be delayed further, and may not be mass-produced before 2024. This would be the case if Tesla misses current estimates by a couple of months, which wouldn't be an overly large surprise. By that time, Rivian will have produced its R1T truck for a couple of years, and others will have entered the attractive electric truck market as well. Ford, for example, is on track to bring its F-150 Lighting to the market soon, as pre-production started in September, and market entry is just a matter of months.\nThe competition from Rivian's R1T and Ford's F-150 could impact Tesla in several ways. First, the fact that the Cybertruck will be late to the market relative to competitors' products will mean that those customers that are very eager to buy an electric truck will go with Rivian or Ford, and not Tesla. Those very eager customers do likely include many that are willing to pay above-average prices, which will allow Ford and Rivian to absorb buying power that is then not available for Tesla when it brings out its Cybertruck two years later.\nOn top of that, the fact that the R1T and the F-150 Lighting will be on the roads well before the Cybertruck is available could hurt Tesla's image as a key electric truck manufacturer. Tesla has the brand advantage in EVs, generally, thanks to its first-mover advantage. But with it being late in the truck space, this first-mover advantage and the increased brand recognition could fall to Rivian and Ford instead of Tesla. As long as Rivian's and Ford's products satisfy customers (which is not guaranteed), truck buyers might build brand loyalty with Rivian and Ford, which could hurt Tesla's ability to sell its Cybertruck and future electric trucks in the long run. Once the opportunity to be a first-mover is missed, others have the advantage, similar to how Tesla has an advantage in selling electric cars today.\nLast but not least, successful launches by Rivian and Ford could also impact Tesla's stock valuation. In case both Rivian and Ford are able to scale up production well and sell large amounts of electric trucks before the Cybertruck is released, investors interested in EV stocks may start to divert away from Tesla. If Rivian is successful in rolling out an electric truck well before Tesla, some current Tesla shareholders may decide to go with Rivian instead, or to split investments between the two companies. This could, in turn, lead to lower demand for Tesla's shares and to some selling pressure, which would be a negative for TSLA stock.\nNone of these is guaranteed, and it is, of course, possible that Tesla beats its own timeline and that the Cybertruck will be made available sooner than expected. It is also possible that manufacturing problems for the R1T or the F-150 Lightning emerge, which would mean that Tesla has more time to catch up. But for now it looks like Rivian and Ford are in the leadership position in the electric truck space, and Tesla being behind its competitors naturally is a negative for the company and its stock. This could hurt demand for the Cybertruck, hurt Tesla's brand image as a technological leader and first-mover, and it could make its shares less compelling relative to those of other EV manufacturers.\nIs Tesla Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nThe electric truck space will be large enough to allow several players to do well a couple of years from now, thus Tesla being behind with its Cybertruck does not mean that the model will not sell well. But it is still important to know whether a company will hold a 30% market share or a 20% market share, for example, five years from now. With Tesla being behind competitors, I do believe that it is not very likely that Tesla will dominate the US electric truck space the same way it dominates the US electric car space today.\nTesla will still see its volumes and revenue grow over the coming years, but growth may not be meaningful enough to justify the current valuation. Tesla is forecasted to generate revenue of $51 billion this year, $67 billion in 2022, and $83 billion in 2023:\nData by YCharts\nThis equates to a growth rate of 31% next year and 24% in 2023. Note that expected revenue growth is less than the 50% average volume growth expected by Tesla, due to the fact that current analyst models predict that Tesla may not be able to deliver on that goal, while average sales price compression could also be a headwind for revenue growth. Overall, revenue growth in the 20%-30% range is still attractive, of course, compared to legacy auto players that do not manage to grow this meaningfully.\nWith 1.12 billion diluted shares, Tesla is currently valued at $875 billion, which equates to a forward sales multiple of 17. Likewise, the sales multiples for 2022 and 2023 stand at 13 and 11, respectively. These are not only very high valuations relative to legacy auto makers, but even relative to some of the other EV players. NIO(NYSE:NIO)and XPeng(NYSE:XPEV), for example, which are growing faster than Tesla, are both valued at 6x 2022's expected revenue today, which makes for a little less than half of Tesla's valuation. Lucid(NASDAQ:LCID), which is a pretty new market entrant, and which should grow faster than Tesla on a relative basis over the coming years, is valued at 10x 2023's expected revenue, versus Tesla's 11x 2023's expected revenue. Overall, I do thus believe that Tesla's shares are too expensive at current prices. This does not at all mean that Tesla is a bad company or that the company will not generate any business growth, but valuations should always be considered. The fact that Tesla is way behind competitors in the electric truck segment is another reason, for me, to believe that Tesla's current valuation is too high -- shares are priced for perfection, and Tesla is far from being perfect, even though the company is solid for sure.\nTesla's overly high valuation versus legacy players with growing EV businesses, such as Ford or Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY), and Tesla's premium valuation versus higher-growth EV peers makes me believe that shares are an avoid at current prices. Locking in gains could be a good idea for those that are long the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821918161,"gmtCreate":1633684923516,"gmtModify":1633684923640,"author":{"id":"4092954016720550","authorId":"4092954016720550","name":"Ramesh78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0c1ebc7b58a181d8b45be1ce9b944a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092954016720550","idStr":"4092954016720550"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821918161","repostId":"1135993400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135993400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633675137,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135993400?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 14:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135993400","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the mo","content":"<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的初始申请失业救济金报告和稳健的 ADP 私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午 8:30 发布的周五非农就业报告，普遍预计将有 50 万人就业，是上个月令人失望的 23.5 万人就业的两倍多，失业率将降至 5.1%，平均时薪将增至 4.6%。与上个月不同，当时我们正确预测了 8 月份就业人数的重大失误，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个打击，唯一的问题是有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最后24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动力参与率：61.8%，去年61.7%</li><li>平均每小时收益同比：4.6%，去年 4.3%</li><li>平均每周小时数：34.7，最近34.7</li></ul>正如 Newsquawk 在其 NFP 预览中所写的那样，9 月份的就业数据是美联储 11 月 3 日政策会议前的最后一份数据，它将以美联储预期宣布缩减规模为背景，而一份令人满意的报告可能就足以让联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 在 11 月份宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，估计 9 月份非农就业人数增加 60 万人，高于 +50 万人的共识，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9 月 5 日全国范围内增加的失业救济金到期促进了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像 7 月和 8 月提前结束联邦福利的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的数字将增加 20 万，10 月份的数字将增加更多。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业岗位的增长，增加了约15万个。尽管有这些有利因素，大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标具有建设性： 尽管分析师们继续指出，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱，但在过去三份报告中，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱。在 8 月至 9 月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近公布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升，这可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次进入增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张性；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日英国夏令时13:30/美国东部时间08:30发布9月份就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员已有效确认，除非就业数据暴跌，否则美联储将在 11 月 3 日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，因此 9 月份就业报告可能会降低其对交易条件的相关性。因此，交易风险可能会向下行倾斜，而不是向上行倾斜，因为就业数据的大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力是如何取得进展的；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，并正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许在 12 月之前提供资金；有分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>共识预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将是一个比三个月和六个月平均增长率更冷的增长率，尽管与12个月的平均水平一致（3个月平均水平为75万/月，6个月平均水平为65.3万/月，12个月平均水平为50.3万/月——从技术上讲，这至少表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所提高）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛的度量：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（之前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而大流行前为63.2%；U6 就业不足指标此前为 8.8%，而大流行前为 7.0%；就业人口比率此前为58.5%，而疫情前为61.1%。这些松弛的衡量标准可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，近几个月来，许多官员指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业与人口比率，以更好地处理经济中仍然存在的松弛程度。分析师们会受到鼓舞，因为这些数字越接近大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均每小时收益预计为 +0.4%（之前为 +0.6%）；平均小时收益预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（以前。34.7小时）.汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，增速好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管第二季度的74.8万个工作岗位增加速度明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏继续取得进展。它还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是复苏的最大受益者之一，尽管表示招聘仍然受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，特别是对小公司而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能会为未来几个月的稳健就业增长创造条件。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型纳入了许多以前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；万神殿宏观经济学表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8 月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制 ADP 数据。”“因此，与共识的超调表明，ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超调是模型驱动的，还是由于ADP客户的就业数据更强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与 BLS 就业报告调查窗口相吻合的一周首次申请失业救济人数约为 35.1 万人，与 8 月份就业数据调查窗口的 34.9 万人几乎没有变化，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而可能存在一些挥之不去的飓风艾达的影响；相应的持续索赔数据在9月份调查期间降至280.2万份，而8月份调查期间为290.8万份。总体而言，数据继续指向下降趋势，尽管最近几周申请失业救济人数的水平再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>: 9 月份服务业和制造业 ISM 报告显示了不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从 53.7 小幅放缓至 53.0，表明增长，但速度较慢，而制造业就业分项指数回升至扩张区域，从之前的 49.0 升至 50.2。在制造业方面，ISM 表示，企业仍在努力实现劳动力管理计划，但指出与前几个月相比有一些适度的进展迹象：“不到 5% 的评论指出就业有所改善，而 8 月份则没有，”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘，”其中约 85% 的回答是关于寻求额外的员工，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，这一比例较 8 月份有所增加。ISM 表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论越来越频繁，延续了 8 月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各级都出现了劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>争取一份好于预期的报告</b>:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦增强失业救济金的终止</b>.一些州的联邦福利到期提高了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7 月和 8 月显示，从 6 月到 8 月，失去 300 美元充值付款的工人的求职概率累计增加了 6 个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的求职概率累计增加了 12 个百分点。<b>9 月 5 日失去部分或全部福利的 600 万工人中，有一些人在 9 月 18 日找到了工作--及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将推动就业增长+20万人，随后的报告将有更大的增长（截至年底累计+130万人）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校复课</b>最大的100个学区都开放面对面学习，促使许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员重返校园。虽然就业水平的完全正常化将提供60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前的水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，在其他条件相同的情况下，劳工统计局的季节性因素已经包含了教育工作者通常在夏季裁员时重新招聘的情况，因此，如果重返工作岗位的清洁工少于典型的 9 月份，这将降低经季节性调整后的就业增长。综合来看，在明天的报告中，学校重新开放将带来大约 15 万人的增长。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会劳动力差异——认为工作机会充足的受访者和认为工作机会很难找到的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%降至42.5%，仍然是一个较高的水平。此外，JOLTS 7月份职位空缺增加了74.9万个，达到1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP。</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于市场普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资衡量标准中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8 月份新冠感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。虽然美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放餐桌的餐厅座位仅略有反弹。9 月份休闲和酒店业就业人数有所增长，但可能不会达到 6 月和 7 月每月约 40 万人的增长速度。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查中的就业组成部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数保持在 54.5 不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降 0.4 个百分点至 57.8。高盛分析师指数 (GSAI) 下降 0.8% 至 68.5，而就业成分上升 1.9% 至 71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>8 月至 9 月调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项显示增幅达到或高于共识（人口普查小企业脉冲+50万，ADP+60万，谷歌移动+200万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当疲软，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应逆风大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万人，而7月和8月的平均就业人数约为-10万人。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏季结束时减少裁员。9 月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变，这在一定程度上抵消了这一推动力--特别是与去年 9 月份重新开放推动的就业激增相吻合（私人就业人数 +93.2 万 mom sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济金。</b>尽管个人过渡到或试图过渡到国家计划，但9月份的首次申请失业救济人数有所上升，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万）——但同样是因为非经济原因（联邦增强型计划到期）。从调查周到调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万人。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray &amp; Christmas 报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降 14% 后，9 月份环比反弹 11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，这一指标的裁员仍接近三十年来的最低点（1993 年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-08 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的初始申请失业救济金报告和稳健的 ADP 私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午 8:30 发布的周五非农就业报告，普遍预计将有 50 万人就业，是上个月令人失望的 23.5 万人就业的两倍多，失业率将降至 5.1%，平均时薪将增至 4.6%。与上个月不同，当时我们正确预测了 8 月份就业人数的重大失误，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个打击，唯一的问题是有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最后24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动力参与率：61.8%，去年61.7%</li><li>平均每小时收益同比：4.6%，去年 4.3%</li><li>平均每周小时数：34.7，最近34.7</li></ul>正如 Newsquawk 在其 NFP 预览中所写的那样，9 月份的就业数据是美联储 11 月 3 日政策会议前的最后一份数据，它将以美联储预期宣布缩减规模为背景，而一份令人满意的报告可能就足以让联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 在 11 月份宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，估计 9 月份非农就业人数增加 60 万人，高于 +50 万人的共识，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9 月 5 日全国范围内增加的失业救济金到期促进了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像 7 月和 8 月提前结束联邦福利的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的数字将增加 20 万，10 月份的数字将增加更多。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业岗位的增长，增加了约15万个。尽管有这些有利因素，大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标具有建设性： 尽管分析师们继续指出，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱，但在过去三份报告中，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱。在 8 月至 9 月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近公布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升，这可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次进入增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张性；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日英国夏令时13:30/美国东部时间08:30发布9月份就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员已有效确认，除非就业数据暴跌，否则美联储将在 11 月 3 日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，因此 9 月份就业报告可能会降低其对交易条件的相关性。因此，交易风险可能会向下行倾斜，而不是向上行倾斜，因为就业数据的大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力是如何取得进展的；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，并正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许在 12 月之前提供资金；有分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>共识预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将是一个比三个月和六个月平均增长率更冷的增长率，尽管与12个月的平均水平一致（3个月平均水平为75万/月，6个月平均水平为65.3万/月，12个月平均水平为50.3万/月——从技术上讲，这至少表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所提高）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛的度量：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（之前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而大流行前为63.2%；U6 就业不足指标此前为 8.8%，而大流行前为 7.0%；就业人口比率此前为58.5%，而疫情前为61.1%。这些松弛的衡量标准可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，近几个月来，许多官员指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业与人口比率，以更好地处理经济中仍然存在的松弛程度。分析师们会受到鼓舞，因为这些数字越接近大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均每小时收益预计为 +0.4%（之前为 +0.6%）；平均小时收益预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（以前。34.7小时）.汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，增速好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管第二季度的74.8万个工作岗位增加速度明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏继续取得进展。它还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是复苏的最大受益者之一，尽管表示招聘仍然受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，特别是对小公司而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能会为未来几个月的稳健就业增长创造条件。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型纳入了许多以前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；万神殿宏观经济学表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8 月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制 ADP 数据。”“因此，与共识的超调表明，ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超调是模型驱动的，还是由于ADP客户的就业数据更强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与 BLS 就业报告调查窗口相吻合的一周首次申请失业救济人数约为 35.1 万人，与 8 月份就业数据调查窗口的 34.9 万人几乎没有变化，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而可能存在一些挥之不去的飓风艾达的影响；相应的持续索赔数据在9月份调查期间降至280.2万份，而8月份调查期间为290.8万份。总体而言，数据继续指向下降趋势，尽管最近几周申请失业救济人数的水平再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>: 9 月份服务业和制造业 ISM 报告显示了不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从 53.7 小幅放缓至 53.0，表明增长，但速度较慢，而制造业就业分项指数回升至扩张区域，从之前的 49.0 升至 50.2。在制造业方面，ISM 表示，企业仍在努力实现劳动力管理计划，但指出与前几个月相比有一些适度的进展迹象：“不到 5% 的评论指出就业有所改善，而 8 月份则没有，”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘，”其中约 85% 的回答是关于寻求额外的员工，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，这一比例较 8 月份有所增加。ISM 表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论越来越频繁，延续了 8 月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各级都出现了劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>争取一份好于预期的报告</b>:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦增强失业救济金的终止</b>.一些州的联邦福利到期提高了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7 月和 8 月显示，从 6 月到 8 月，失去 300 美元充值付款的工人的求职概率累计增加了 6 个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的求职概率累计增加了 12 个百分点。<b>9 月 5 日失去部分或全部福利的 600 万工人中，有一些人在 9 月 18 日找到了工作--及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将推动就业增长+20万人，随后的报告将有更大的增长（截至年底累计+130万人）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校复课</b>最大的100个学区都开放面对面学习，促使许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员重返校园。虽然就业水平的完全正常化将提供60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前的水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，在其他条件相同的情况下，劳工统计局的季节性因素已经包含了教育工作者通常在夏季裁员时重新招聘的情况，因此，如果重返工作岗位的清洁工少于典型的 9 月份，这将降低经季节性调整后的就业增长。综合来看，在明天的报告中，学校重新开放将带来大约 15 万人的增长。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会劳动力差异——认为工作机会充足的受访者和认为工作机会很难找到的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%降至42.5%，仍然是一个较高的水平。此外，JOLTS 7月份职位空缺增加了74.9万个，达到1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP。</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于市场普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资衡量标准中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8 月份新冠感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。虽然美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放餐桌的餐厅座位仅略有反弹。9 月份休闲和酒店业就业人数有所增长，但可能不会达到 6 月和 7 月每月约 40 万人的增长速度。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查中的就业组成部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数保持在 54.5 不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降 0.4 个百分点至 57.8。高盛分析师指数 (GSAI) 下降 0.8% 至 68.5，而就业成分上升 1.9% 至 71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>8 月至 9 月调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项显示增幅达到或高于共识（人口普查小企业脉冲+50万，ADP+60万，谷歌移动+200万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当疲软，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应逆风大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万人，而7月和8月的平均就业人数约为-10万人。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏季结束时减少裁员。9 月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变，这在一定程度上抵消了这一推动力--特别是与去年 9 月份重新开放推动的就业激增相吻合（私人就业人数 +93.2 万 mom sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济金。</b>尽管个人过渡到或试图过渡到国家计划，但9月份的首次申请失业救济人数有所上升，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万）——但同样是因为非经济原因（联邦增强型计划到期）。从调查周到调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万人。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray &amp; Christmas 报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降 14% 后，9 月份环比反弹 11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，这一指标的裁员仍接近三十年来的最低点（1993 年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135993400","content_text":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.\nHere is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:\n\nTotal Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K\nPrivate Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K\nUnemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%\nLabor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%\nAverage Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%\nAverage Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7\n\nAs Newsquawk writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.\nGoldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong, and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.\nLabor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.\nPOLICY: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.\nPAYROLLS:The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nMEASURES OF SLACK:The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.\nEARNINGS:Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nADP:The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure & Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"\nINITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.\nBUSINESS SURVEYS: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.\nARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nEnd of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).\n\n\n\nSchool reopening. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.\n\n\n\nJob availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.\nADP.Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.\n\nARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nDelta variant.Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.\nEmployer surveys. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.\n\nNEUTRAL FACTORS:\n\nBig Data.High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.\nSeasonality.The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).\nJobless claims.Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.\nJob cuts.Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). 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