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- rlllimrlllim
  ·2021-06-23
  Great!
  S&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues<blockquote>标普500连续第三天上涨，反弹仍在继续</blockquote>
  (June 23) U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high
  S&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues<blockquote>标普500连续第三天上涨，反弹仍在继续</blockquote>
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- rlllimrlllim
  ·2021-06-22
  Good stuff
  Confused by the Fed? So Are Markets<blockquote>被美联储搞糊涂了？市场也是如此</blockquote>
  Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the stren
  Confused by the Fed? So Are Markets<blockquote>被美联储搞糊涂了？市场也是如此</blockquote>
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- rlllimrlllim
  ·2021-06-22
  Thanks
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.2%, sitting 0.1% from a record. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% after closing at a record in the previous session. That was the Nasdaq’s first new high since April 29th as investors have started to rotate back into Big Tech shares.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨40点。标普500上涨0.2%，较历史新高上涨0.1%。纳斯达克综合指数在前一交易日收于创纪录水平后上涨0.2%。这是该纳斯达克自4月29日以来的首个新高，因为投资者已开始转向大型科技股。</blockquote></p><p> Energy names including Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed as oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude topped $75 a barrel to hit a two-year high on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>随着油价持续上涨，埃克森美孚和雪佛龙等能源股股价上涨。布伦特原油周三突破每桶75美元，创两年新高。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin staged an impressive comeback on Tuesday that was carrying through on Wednesday.On Tuesday,the cryptocurrency at one point dipped below $30,000 and erased its gains for 2021. But bitcoin ultimately recouped all of the more than 11% loss and finished the session in positive territory, according to data from Coin Metrics.</p><p><blockquote>比特币在周二上演了令人印象深刻的复出，并一直持续到周三。周二，该加密货币一度跌破30,000美元，抹去了2021年的涨幅。但根据Coin Metrics的数据，比特币最终收复了超过11%的跌幅，并以正值收盘。</blockquote></p><p> At last check,bitcoinwas up another 4% to above $34,000 on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>据最新检查，比特币周三又上涨4%，至34,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> EV stocks rose in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8984f8ae7b74f7b0dab8ee0db778efca\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Big&nbsp;tech&nbsp;stocks mixed in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ed5f54b77d44997d7bc777dfccf313\" tg-width=\"282\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House of Representatives on Tuesday, which appeared to lift sentiment as he reiterated that inflation pressures will betemporary.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股早盘上涨。大型科技股早盘涨跌互现。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周二在众议院作证，他重申通胀压力将是暂时的，这似乎提振了市场情绪。</blockquote></p><p> \"Powell outlined how the inflation overshoot is from categories directly affected by reopening,\" said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. \"He noted there is extremely strong demand and that the supply has been caught flat-footed.\"</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师埃德·莫亚(Ed Moya)表示：“鲍威尔概述了通胀超调是如何来自受重新开放直接影响的类别。”“他指出，需求极其强劲，而供应却措手不及。”</blockquote></p><p> For June the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are in the green, rising 1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Dow, however, is in the red for the month amid weakness in Caterpillar and JPMorgan.</p><p><blockquote>6月份，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数呈绿色，分别上涨1%和3.6%。然而，由于卡特彼勒和摩根大通的疲软，道琼斯指数本月出现亏损。</blockquote></p><p> Looking ahead, UBS said it maintains a \"positive tactical view on stocks,\" but that gains will be unevenly distributed.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，瑞银表示，它对股市保持“积极的战术观点”，但收益将分布不均。</blockquote></p><p> \"We see potential in regional markets that lagged in the second quarter, particularly China and Japan, as well as among those companies and sectors most exposed to economic reopening, including energy, financials, and US small- and mid-caps,\" the firm wrote in a recent note to clients. UBS said investors should take profits in some of the year-to-date winners that might have limited upside ahead, including real estate, consumer discretionary and industrial names.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示：“我们看到了第二季度表现落后的区域市场的潜力，特别是中国和日本，以及那些受经济重新开放影响最大的公司和行业，包括能源、金融和美国中小型股。”在最近给客户的一份报告中写道。瑞银表示，投资者应该在一些今年迄今的涨幅可能有限的股票中获利了结，包括房地产、非必需消费品和工业股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues<blockquote>标普500连续第三天上涨，反弹仍在继续</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 rises for a third day as comeback rally continues<blockquote>标普500连续第三天上涨，反弹仍在继续</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 23)&nbsp;U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high and the S&amp;P 500 closed just shy of one.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）美国。周三股市上涨，一天前纳斯达克综合指数创下历史新高，标普500收盘略低于1点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 40 points. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.2%, sitting 0.1% from a record. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% after closing at a record in the previous session. That was the Nasdaq’s first new high since April 29th as investors have started to rotate back into Big Tech shares.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨40点。标普500上涨0.2%，较历史新高上涨0.1%。纳斯达克综合指数在前一交易日收于创纪录水平后上涨0.2%。这是该纳斯达克自4月29日以来的首个新高，因为投资者已开始转向大型科技股。</blockquote></p><p> Energy names including Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed as oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude topped $75 a barrel to hit a two-year high on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>随着油价持续上涨，埃克森美孚和雪佛龙等能源股股价上涨。布伦特原油周三突破每桶75美元，创两年新高。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin staged an impressive comeback on Tuesday that was carrying through on Wednesday.On Tuesday,the cryptocurrency at one point dipped below $30,000 and erased its gains for 2021. But bitcoin ultimately recouped all of the more than 11% loss and finished the session in positive territory, according to data from Coin Metrics.</p><p><blockquote>比特币在周二上演了令人印象深刻的复出，并一直持续到周三。周二，该加密货币一度跌破30,000美元，抹去了2021年的涨幅。但根据Coin Metrics的数据，比特币最终收复了超过11%的跌幅，并以正值收盘。</blockquote></p><p> At last check,bitcoinwas up another 4% to above $34,000 on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>据最新检查，比特币周三又上涨4%，至34,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> EV stocks rose in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8984f8ae7b74f7b0dab8ee0db778efca\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Big&nbsp;tech&nbsp;stocks mixed in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ed5f54b77d44997d7bc777dfccf313\" tg-width=\"282\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House of Representatives on Tuesday, which appeared to lift sentiment as he reiterated that inflation pressures will betemporary.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股早盘上涨。大型科技股早盘涨跌互现。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周二在众议院作证，他重申通胀压力将是暂时的，这似乎提振了市场情绪。</blockquote></p><p> \"Powell outlined how the inflation overshoot is from categories directly affected by reopening,\" said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. \"He noted there is extremely strong demand and that the supply has been caught flat-footed.\"</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师埃德·莫亚(Ed Moya)表示：“鲍威尔概述了通胀超调是如何来自受重新开放直接影响的类别。”“他指出，需求极其强劲，而供应却措手不及。”</blockquote></p><p> For June the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are in the green, rising 1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Dow, however, is in the red for the month amid weakness in Caterpillar and JPMorgan.</p><p><blockquote>6月份，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数呈绿色，分别上涨1%和3.6%。然而，由于卡特彼勒和摩根大通的疲软，道琼斯指数本月出现亏损。</blockquote></p><p> Looking ahead, UBS said it maintains a \"positive tactical view on stocks,\" but that gains will be unevenly distributed.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，瑞银表示，它对股市保持“积极的战术观点”，但收益将分布不均。</blockquote></p><p> \"We see potential in regional markets that lagged in the second quarter, particularly China and Japan, as well as among those companies and sectors most exposed to economic reopening, including energy, financials, and US small- and mid-caps,\" the firm wrote in a recent note to clients. UBS said investors should take profits in some of the year-to-date winners that might have limited upside ahead, including real estate, consumer discretionary and industrial names.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示：“我们看到了第二季度表现落后的区域市场的潜力，特别是中国和日本，以及那些受经济重新开放影响最大的公司和行业，包括能源、金融和美国中小型股。”在最近给客户的一份报告中写道。瑞银表示，投资者应该在一些今年迄今的涨幅可能有限的股票中获利了结，包括房地产、非必需消费品和工业股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141331644","content_text":"(June 23) U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, a day after the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high and the S&P 500 closed just shy of one.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 40 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.2%, sitting 0.1% from a record. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% after closing at a record in the previous session. That was the Nasdaq’s first new high since April 29th as investors have started to rotate back into Big Tech shares.\nEnergy names including Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed as oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude topped $75 a barrel to hit a two-year high on Wednesday.\nBitcoin staged an impressive comeback on Tuesday that was carrying through on Wednesday.On Tuesday,the cryptocurrency at one point dipped below $30,000 and erased its gains for 2021. But bitcoin ultimately recouped all of the more than 11% loss and finished the session in positive territory, according to data from Coin Metrics.\nAt last check,bitcoinwas up another 4% to above $34,000 on Wednesday.\nEV stocks rose in morning trading.Big tech stocks mixed in morning trading.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House of Representatives on Tuesday, which appeared to lift sentiment as he reiterated that inflation pressures will betemporary.\n\"Powell outlined how the inflation overshoot is from categories directly affected by reopening,\" said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. \"He noted there is extremely strong demand and that the supply has been caught flat-footed.\"\nFor June the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are in the green, rising 1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Dow, however, is in the red for the month amid weakness in Caterpillar and JPMorgan.\nLooking ahead, UBS said it maintains a \"positive tactical view on stocks,\" but that gains will be unevenly distributed.\n\"We see potential in regional markets that lagged in the second quarter, particularly China and Japan, as well as among those companies and sectors most exposed to economic reopening, including energy, financials, and US small- and mid-caps,\" the firm wrote in a recent note to clients. UBS said investors should take profits in some of the year-to-date winners that might have limited upside ahead, including real estate, consumer discretionary and industrial names.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3077,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129375589,"gmtCreate":1624362427141,"gmtModify":1634007289983,"author":{"id":"3586848923635947","authorId":"3586848923635947","name":"rlllim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7479c18e0b4579a6960f2e1162ee935b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586848923635947","idStr":"3586848923635947"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good stuff","listText":"Good stuff","text":"Good stuff","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129375589","repostId":"1152615512","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152615512","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624360383,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152615512?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Confused by the Fed? So Are Markets<blockquote>被美联储搞糊涂了？市场也是如此</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152615512","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the stren","content":"<p>  Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength of the post-pandemic recovery.  The bond market is supposed to be the smart older cousin that keeps its head while the flighty stock market zooms about all over the place. Not so much in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率的波动揭示了投资者对美联储意图和大流行后复苏力度的深深困惑。债券市场应该是聪明的表亲，当浮躁的股票市场到处乱窜时，它能保持领先。过去一周没那么多。</blockquote></p><p> Instead of a calm response to the Federal Reserve’sslightly more hawkish tone, the 10-year yield first leapt by the most in months, then plunged. On Monday, it dropped during Asian trading hours to the lowest since February, before bouncing all the way back and then some.</p><p><blockquote>10 年期国债收益率没有对美联储略显鹰派的语气做出冷静反应，而是在几个月内先是跃升最大，然后暴跌。周一，它在亚洲交易时段跌至二月份以来的最低水平，然后一路反弹，然后又有所回升。</blockquote></p><p> The moves reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength ofthe post-pandemic recovery, as well as the extraordinary desperation for safe yields.</p><p><blockquote>这些举动揭示了投资者对美联储意图和大流行后复苏力度的深深困惑，以及对安全收益率的极度绝望。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5911d5e0ad74414b1b88185c2769f99\" tg-width=\"336\" tg-height=\"410\">Before stock traders get too smug, bond-market volatility is mirrored by similar swings below the surface of the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>在股票交易员变得过于自满之前，债券市场的波动反映在股市表面之下的类似波动中。</blockquote></p><p> For me, the most extraordinary shift was the $235 billion depositedin the Fed’s reverse repurchase facilityafter it raised the rate it pays from zero to 0.05%, because it was concerned that it was losing control of the lower bound of rates.</p><p><blockquote>对我来说，最不寻常的转变是美联储将利率从零提高到 0.05% 后，美联储的逆回购工具存入了 2350 亿美元，因为美联储担心自己正在失去对利率下限的控制。</blockquote></p><p> This is a true tightening of monetary policy, not the mere technicality the Fed presented it as. For monetarists who care about the amount of money in circulation, in one day it drained reserves equivalent to two months of quantitative easing, and showed just how much cash is sloshing around the system looking for even the tiniest yield.</p><p><blockquote>这是一次真正的货币政策紧缩，而不仅仅是美联储所描述的技术性紧缩。对于关心流通中货币量的货币主义者来说，一天之内，它消耗了相当于两个月量化宽松的储备，并显示了有多少现金在系统中晃动，寻找哪怕是最小的收益率。</blockquote></p><p> For those, including me, who prefer to focus on the price of money, it is now higher—albeit not very much, it is a tightening. Secured overnight rates in the money market had been stuck on the floor of 0.01% since March, according to the New York Fed, with some borrowing at negative rates. It rose to 0.05% after the Fed’s announcement, and negative rates vanished.</p><p><blockquote>对于包括我在内的那些更喜欢关注货币价格的人来说，现在货币价格更高了——尽管不是很高，但这是一种紧缩。根据纽约联储的数据，自 3 月份以来，货币市场的担保隔夜利率一直停留在 0.01% 的下限，部分借款利率为负。美联储宣布这一消息后，利率升至 0.05%，负利率消失了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1707a50e4704c3c16d8d2eac7a0204f9\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"419\">After the initial volatility, the bond market’s considered reaction was in the right direction for tighter policy: Higher short-term real rates reduced the longer-term inflation threat and so led to lower 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields—until the reflation trade returned on Monday. Higher rates pulled down stocks most sensitive to the economy—cyclicals and cheap value stocks—until Monday’s reverse. Growth stocks did fine thanks to lower long-term rates, before lagging on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了最初的波动之后，债券市场经过深思熟虑的反应朝着收紧政策的正确方向发展： 较高的短期实际利率降低了长期通胀威胁，从而导致 10 年期和 30 年期国债收益率下降--直到周一重新通胀交易回归。利率上升拖累了对经济最敏感的股票--周期性股票和廉价价值股票--直到周一出现逆转。由于长期利率较低，成长型股票表现良好，但周一表现落后。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, 0.05% is a very small tightening, to put it mildly. Usually, the Fed moves in 0.25-percentage-point increments, so this was equivalent to one-fifth of a normal rate increase. What mattered for Treasurys wasn’t the immediate shift in the price of money, but the prospect of a bigger change by the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>然而，温和地说，0.05%是一个非常小的紧缩。通常，美联储的加息幅度为 0.25 个百分点，因此这相当于正常加息的五分之一。对美国国债来说，重要的不是货币价格的立即变化，而是美联储做出更大改变的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bacd47e561e9d7ffdb95d180913fadf\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"418\">Much of the focus was on the “dots,” the projections of individual Fed policy makers. The median prediction for 2023 was for two 0.25-point increases that year, having previously been for no move. Again, in normal times this wouldn’t be terribly significant, as the predictions aren’t binding, have been a terrible guide to future policy and anyway are still two years away. They were even dismissed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in his news conference on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>大部分焦点都集中在 “点”上，即美联储个别决策者的预测。2023 年的中值预测是当年两次增长 0.25 个百分点，而此前则没有变动。同样，在正常情况下，这并不会非常重要，因为这些预测没有约束力，对未来的政策起到了很糟糕的指导作用，而且无论如何还有两年的时间。他们甚至在周三的新闻发布会上被美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔驳回。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5df90890ee96402b8d5375020d3c135\" tg-width=\"353\" tg-height=\"454\">The reason the market cared so much isn’t the specifics, but the shift in tone from super-dovish to a hint of hawk. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard emphasized this—and the market moved further—on Friday when he said the first increase could even come next year. Seven of the 18 dots had one or two rises penciled in for 2022, so the news here was merely that Mr. Bullard was one of them.</p><p><blockquote>市场如此关心的原因不是具体细节，而是基调从超级鸽派转变为一丝鹰派。圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德周五强调了这一点，市场进一步走势，他表示第一次加息甚至可能在明年到来。18个点中有7个点在2022年有一两次上升，所以这里的消息仅仅是布拉德先生是其中之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having previously been careful not to say anything that could possibly be interpreted as worrying about inflation, the Fed suddenly seemed to be concerned.</p><p><blockquote>美联储此前一直小心翼翼地不说任何可能被解读为担心通胀的话，但突然似乎感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> We will have to wait for more from Mr. Powell and other Fed members to find out if this is the interpretation they wanted. They might well be taken aback by the scale of the market moves, which on Friday briefly pushed five-year Treasury yields—the base for much corporate borrowing—up to where they stood in February last year, before the first lockdown. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mr. Powell tries to talk the market back.</p><p><blockquote>我们将不得不等待鲍威尔先生和其他美联储成员提供更多信息，以了解这是否是他们想要的解释。他们很可能会对市场走势的规模感到惊讶，周五市场走势短暂地将五年期国债收益率（许多企业借款的基础）推至去年 2 月第一次封锁前的水平。如果鲍威尔先生试图说服市场，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that investors are supersensitive to the Fed’s views. They think the real economy will be hit much harder than it usually is by higher rates. The Fed also has spent the past year convincing investors that low rates are here pretty much forever.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于投资者对美联储的观点极其敏感。他们认为实体经济将受到比平时更高利率的打击。美联储还在过去一年里让投资者相信低利率几乎永远存在。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The threat of higher rates holding back the economy pushed investors toward the post-2010 playbook, at least for a few days: Buy long-dated bonds, buy Big Tech and other growth stocks, steer clear of anything dependent on a strong expansion.</p><p><blockquote>利率上升阻碍经济的威胁促使投资者走向 2010 年后的剧本，至少在几天内是这样：购买长期债券，购买大型科技股和其他成长型股票，避开任何依赖于强劲扩张的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The shift from thinking there is no risk of rate rises to thinking there is some risk of increases marks a major change of mindset. But I urge caution: Don’t assume the Treasury market is right about inflation, let alone that the wildly swinging yield is anything more than a best guess at what the Fed plans.</p><p><blockquote>从认为没有加息风险转变为认为有一些加息风险标志着心态的重大转变。但我敦促大家谨慎行事：不要以为国债市场对通胀的看法是正确的，更不用说疯狂波动的收益率只不过是对美联储计划的最佳猜测了。</blockquote></p><p> But just as withthe taper tantrum of 2013, when investors start to price in Fed action, they can overdo it as everyone tries to adjust their portfolio to the new reality at once.</p><p><blockquote>但就像 2013 年的缩减规模发脾气一样，当投资者开始对美联储的行动进行定价时，他们可能会过度，因为每个人都试图立即调整自己的投资组合以适应新的现实。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Confused by the Fed? So Are Markets<blockquote>被美联储搞糊涂了？市场也是如此</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConfused by the Fed? So Are Markets<blockquote>被美联储搞糊涂了？市场也是如此</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 19:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength of the post-pandemic recovery.  The bond market is supposed to be the smart older cousin that keeps its head while the flighty stock market zooms about all over the place. Not so much in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率的波动揭示了投资者对美联储意图和大流行后复苏力度的深深困惑。债券市场应该是聪明的表亲，当浮躁的股票市场到处乱窜时，它能保持领先。过去一周没那么多。</blockquote></p><p> Instead of a calm response to the Federal Reserve’sslightly more hawkish tone, the 10-year yield first leapt by the most in months, then plunged. On Monday, it dropped during Asian trading hours to the lowest since February, before bouncing all the way back and then some.</p><p><blockquote>10 年期国债收益率没有对美联储略显鹰派的语气做出冷静反应，而是在几个月内先是跃升最大，然后暴跌。周一，它在亚洲交易时段跌至二月份以来的最低水平，然后一路反弹，然后又有所回升。</blockquote></p><p> The moves reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength ofthe post-pandemic recovery, as well as the extraordinary desperation for safe yields.</p><p><blockquote>这些举动揭示了投资者对美联储意图和大流行后复苏力度的深深困惑，以及对安全收益率的极度绝望。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5911d5e0ad74414b1b88185c2769f99\" tg-width=\"336\" tg-height=\"410\">Before stock traders get too smug, bond-market volatility is mirrored by similar swings below the surface of the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>在股票交易员变得过于自满之前，债券市场的波动反映在股市表面之下的类似波动中。</blockquote></p><p> For me, the most extraordinary shift was the $235 billion depositedin the Fed’s reverse repurchase facilityafter it raised the rate it pays from zero to 0.05%, because it was concerned that it was losing control of the lower bound of rates.</p><p><blockquote>对我来说，最不寻常的转变是美联储将利率从零提高到 0.05% 后，美联储的逆回购工具存入了 2350 亿美元，因为美联储担心自己正在失去对利率下限的控制。</blockquote></p><p> This is a true tightening of monetary policy, not the mere technicality the Fed presented it as. For monetarists who care about the amount of money in circulation, in one day it drained reserves equivalent to two months of quantitative easing, and showed just how much cash is sloshing around the system looking for even the tiniest yield.</p><p><blockquote>这是一次真正的货币政策紧缩，而不仅仅是美联储所描述的技术性紧缩。对于关心流通中货币量的货币主义者来说，一天之内，它消耗了相当于两个月量化宽松的储备，并显示了有多少现金在系统中晃动，寻找哪怕是最小的收益率。</blockquote></p><p> For those, including me, who prefer to focus on the price of money, it is now higher—albeit not very much, it is a tightening. Secured overnight rates in the money market had been stuck on the floor of 0.01% since March, according to the New York Fed, with some borrowing at negative rates. It rose to 0.05% after the Fed’s announcement, and negative rates vanished.</p><p><blockquote>对于包括我在内的那些更喜欢关注货币价格的人来说，现在货币价格更高了——尽管不是很高，但这是一种紧缩。根据纽约联储的数据，自 3 月份以来，货币市场的担保隔夜利率一直停留在 0.01% 的下限，部分借款利率为负。美联储宣布这一消息后，利率升至 0.05%，负利率消失了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1707a50e4704c3c16d8d2eac7a0204f9\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"419\">After the initial volatility, the bond market’s considered reaction was in the right direction for tighter policy: Higher short-term real rates reduced the longer-term inflation threat and so led to lower 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields—until the reflation trade returned on Monday. Higher rates pulled down stocks most sensitive to the economy—cyclicals and cheap value stocks—until Monday’s reverse. Growth stocks did fine thanks to lower long-term rates, before lagging on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了最初的波动之后，债券市场经过深思熟虑的反应朝着收紧政策的正确方向发展： 较高的短期实际利率降低了长期通胀威胁，从而导致 10 年期和 30 年期国债收益率下降--直到周一重新通胀交易回归。利率上升拖累了对经济最敏感的股票--周期性股票和廉价价值股票--直到周一出现逆转。由于长期利率较低，成长型股票表现良好，但周一表现落后。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, 0.05% is a very small tightening, to put it mildly. Usually, the Fed moves in 0.25-percentage-point increments, so this was equivalent to one-fifth of a normal rate increase. What mattered for Treasurys wasn’t the immediate shift in the price of money, but the prospect of a bigger change by the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>然而，温和地说，0.05%是一个非常小的紧缩。通常，美联储的加息幅度为 0.25 个百分点，因此这相当于正常加息的五分之一。对美国国债来说，重要的不是货币价格的立即变化，而是美联储做出更大改变的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bacd47e561e9d7ffdb95d180913fadf\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"418\">Much of the focus was on the “dots,” the projections of individual Fed policy makers. The median prediction for 2023 was for two 0.25-point increases that year, having previously been for no move. Again, in normal times this wouldn’t be terribly significant, as the predictions aren’t binding, have been a terrible guide to future policy and anyway are still two years away. They were even dismissed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in his news conference on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>大部分焦点都集中在 “点”上，即美联储个别决策者的预测。2023 年的中值预测是当年两次增长 0.25 个百分点，而此前则没有变动。同样，在正常情况下，这并不会非常重要，因为这些预测没有约束力，对未来的政策起到了很糟糕的指导作用，而且无论如何还有两年的时间。他们甚至在周三的新闻发布会上被美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔驳回。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5df90890ee96402b8d5375020d3c135\" tg-width=\"353\" tg-height=\"454\">The reason the market cared so much isn’t the specifics, but the shift in tone from super-dovish to a hint of hawk. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard emphasized this—and the market moved further—on Friday when he said the first increase could even come next year. Seven of the 18 dots had one or two rises penciled in for 2022, so the news here was merely that Mr. Bullard was one of them.</p><p><blockquote>市场如此关心的原因不是具体细节，而是基调从超级鸽派转变为一丝鹰派。圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德周五强调了这一点，市场进一步走势，他表示第一次加息甚至可能在明年到来。18个点中有7个点在2022年有一两次上升，所以这里的消息仅仅是布拉德先生是其中之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having previously been careful not to say anything that could possibly be interpreted as worrying about inflation, the Fed suddenly seemed to be concerned.</p><p><blockquote>美联储此前一直小心翼翼地不说任何可能被解读为担心通胀的话，但突然似乎感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> We will have to wait for more from Mr. Powell and other Fed members to find out if this is the interpretation they wanted. They might well be taken aback by the scale of the market moves, which on Friday briefly pushed five-year Treasury yields—the base for much corporate borrowing—up to where they stood in February last year, before the first lockdown. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mr. Powell tries to talk the market back.</p><p><blockquote>我们将不得不等待鲍威尔先生和其他美联储成员提供更多信息，以了解这是否是他们想要的解释。他们很可能会对市场走势的规模感到惊讶，周五市场走势短暂地将五年期国债收益率（许多企业借款的基础）推至去年 2 月第一次封锁前的水平。如果鲍威尔先生试图说服市场，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that investors are supersensitive to the Fed’s views. They think the real economy will be hit much harder than it usually is by higher rates. The Fed also has spent the past year convincing investors that low rates are here pretty much forever.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于投资者对美联储的观点极其敏感。他们认为实体经济将受到比平时更高利率的打击。美联储还在过去一年里让投资者相信低利率几乎永远存在。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The threat of higher rates holding back the economy pushed investors toward the post-2010 playbook, at least for a few days: Buy long-dated bonds, buy Big Tech and other growth stocks, steer clear of anything dependent on a strong expansion.</p><p><blockquote>利率上升阻碍经济的威胁促使投资者走向 2010 年后的剧本，至少在几天内是这样：购买长期债券，购买大型科技股和其他成长型股票，避开任何依赖于强劲扩张的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The shift from thinking there is no risk of rate rises to thinking there is some risk of increases marks a major change of mindset. But I urge caution: Don’t assume the Treasury market is right about inflation, let alone that the wildly swinging yield is anything more than a best guess at what the Fed plans.</p><p><blockquote>从认为没有加息风险转变为认为有一些加息风险标志着心态的重大转变。但我敦促大家谨慎行事：不要以为国债市场对通胀的看法是正确的，更不用说疯狂波动的收益率只不过是对美联储计划的最佳猜测了。</blockquote></p><p> But just as withthe taper tantrum of 2013, when investors start to price in Fed action, they can overdo it as everyone tries to adjust their portfolio to the new reality at once.</p><p><blockquote>但就像 2013 年的缩减规模发脾气一样，当投资者开始对美联储的行动进行定价时，他们可能会过度，因为每个人都试图立即调整自己的投资组合以适应新的现实。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/confused-by-the-fed-so-are-markets-11624352991\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/confused-by-the-fed-so-are-markets-11624352991","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152615512","content_text":"Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength of the post-pandemic recovery.\n\nThe bond market is supposed to be the smart older cousin that keeps its head while the flighty stock market zooms about all over the place. Not so much in the past week.\nInstead of a calm response to the Federal Reserve’sslightly more hawkish tone, the 10-year yield first leapt by the most in months, then plunged. On Monday, it dropped during Asian trading hours to the lowest since February, before bouncing all the way back and then some.\nThe moves reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength ofthe post-pandemic recovery, as well as the extraordinary desperation for safe yields.\nBefore stock traders get too smug, bond-market volatility is mirrored by similar swings below the surface of the stock market.\nFor me, the most extraordinary shift was the $235 billion depositedin the Fed’s reverse repurchase facilityafter it raised the rate it pays from zero to 0.05%, because it was concerned that it was losing control of the lower bound of rates.\nThis is a true tightening of monetary policy, not the mere technicality the Fed presented it as. For monetarists who care about the amount of money in circulation, in one day it drained reserves equivalent to two months of quantitative easing, and showed just how much cash is sloshing around the system looking for even the tiniest yield.\nFor those, including me, who prefer to focus on the price of money, it is now higher—albeit not very much, it is a tightening. Secured overnight rates in the money market had been stuck on the floor of 0.01% since March, according to the New York Fed, with some borrowing at negative rates. It rose to 0.05% after the Fed’s announcement, and negative rates vanished.\nAfter the initial volatility, the bond market’s considered reaction was in the right direction for tighter policy: Higher short-term real rates reduced the longer-term inflation threat and so led to lower 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields—until the reflation trade returned on Monday. Higher rates pulled down stocks most sensitive to the economy—cyclicals and cheap value stocks—until Monday’s reverse. Growth stocks did fine thanks to lower long-term rates, before lagging on Monday.\nYet, 0.05% is a very small tightening, to put it mildly. Usually, the Fed moves in 0.25-percentage-point increments, so this was equivalent to one-fifth of a normal rate increase. What mattered for Treasurys wasn’t the immediate shift in the price of money, but the prospect of a bigger change by the Fed.\nMuch of the focus was on the “dots,” the projections of individual Fed policy makers. The median prediction for 2023 was for two 0.25-point increases that year, having previously been for no move. Again, in normal times this wouldn’t be terribly significant, as the predictions aren’t binding, have been a terrible guide to future policy and anyway are still two years away. They were even dismissed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in his news conference on Wednesday.\nThe reason the market cared so much isn’t the specifics, but the shift in tone from super-dovish to a hint of hawk. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard emphasized this—and the market moved further—on Friday when he said the first increase could even come next year. Seven of the 18 dots had one or two rises penciled in for 2022, so the news here was merely that Mr. Bullard was one of them.\nHaving previously been careful not to say anything that could possibly be interpreted as worrying about inflation, the Fed suddenly seemed to be concerned.\nWe will have to wait for more from Mr. Powell and other Fed members to find out if this is the interpretation they wanted. They might well be taken aback by the scale of the market moves, which on Friday briefly pushed five-year Treasury yields—the base for much corporate borrowing—up to where they stood in February last year, before the first lockdown. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mr. Powell tries to talk the market back.\nThe problem is that investors are supersensitive to the Fed’s views. They think the real economy will be hit much harder than it usually is by higher rates. The Fed also has spent the past year convincing investors that low rates are here pretty much forever.\nThe threat of higher rates holding back the economy pushed investors toward the post-2010 playbook, at least for a few days: Buy long-dated bonds, buy Big Tech and other growth stocks, steer clear of anything dependent on a strong expansion.\nThe shift from thinking there is no risk of rate rises to thinking there is some risk of increases marks a major change of mindset. But I urge caution: Don’t assume the Treasury market is right about inflation, let alone that the wildly swinging yield is anything more than a best guess at what the Fed plans.\nBut just as withthe taper tantrum of 2013, when investors start to price in Fed action, they can overdo it as everyone tries to adjust their portfolio to the new reality at once.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129372658,"gmtCreate":1624362336974,"gmtModify":1634007290833,"author":{"id":"3586848923635947","authorId":"3586848923635947","name":"rlllim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7479c18e0b4579a6960f2e1162ee935b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586848923635947","idStr":"3586848923635947"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129372658","repostId":"1195130148","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}