个人中心 - 老虎社区

Irisleong

IP属地：安徽

帖子 · 1帖子 · 1
关注 · 0关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0粉丝 · 0

- IrisleongIrisleong
  ·2021-12-23
  👀
  After Christmas, Get Ready for the 'Inflation Bullwhip'<blockquote>圣诞节后，为“通胀牛鞭”做好准备</blockquote>
  The American economy is about to experience the economic equivalent of Indiana Jones' favorite toy i
  After Christmas, Get Ready for the 'Inflation Bullwhip'<blockquote>圣诞节后，为“通胀牛鞭”做好准备</blockquote>
  2,715 1
  3
  分享
  举报

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3585868522334086","uuid":"3585868522334086","gmtCreate":1622774758955,"gmtModify":1622774758955,"name":"Irisleong","pinyin":"irisleong","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":5,"tweetSize":1,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":4,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.07.15","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.09.07","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.09.07","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"安徽","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":691760635,"gmtCreate":1640245235842,"gmtModify":1640245235842,"author":{"id":"3585868522334086","authorId":"3585868522334086","name":"Irisleong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585868522334086","idStr":"3585868522334086"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👀","listText":"👀","text":"👀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691760635","repostId":"1166370237","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166370237","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640244394,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166370237?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 15:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"After Christmas, Get Ready for the 'Inflation Bullwhip'<blockquote>圣诞节后，为“通胀牛鞭”做好准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166370237","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The American economy is about to experience the economic equivalent of Indiana Jones' favorite toy i","content":"<p>The American economy is about to experience the economic equivalent of Indiana Jones' favorite toy in what's called the \"bullwhip effect.\"</p><p><blockquote>美国经济即将经历相当于印第安纳·琼斯最喜欢的玩具的经济效应，即所谓的“牛鞭效应”。</blockquote></p><p> All that means is that one small flick of the wrist leads to a big movement at the end of an oscillating supply-chain whip... and usually, a \"crack\" at the end of the whip.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着手腕的一个小动作会导致摆动的供应链鞭子末端的一个大动作……通常，鞭子末端会有一条“裂缝”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should expect two things in the next few months...</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该在未来几个月期待两件事……</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Post-Christmas buying that will make Black Friday and Cyber Monday look like high-priced sidewalk sales by comparison.</li>  <li>All the talk about inflation – now the highest since 1982 – is going to disappear.</li> </ol> <b>How We Got Here</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相比之下，圣诞节后的购买将使黑色星期五和网络星期一看起来像是高价的人行道销售。</li><li>所有关于通货膨胀的讨论——现在是1982年以来的最高水平——都将消失。</li></ol><b>我们是怎么来到这里的</b></blockquote></p><p> Millions of Americans moved into \"treat yourself\" mode after COVID-19 lockdowns and pandemic stimulus cash magically deposited into their bank accounts. Demand for PlayStations, lumber, Honda CRVs, LG InstaView fridges, five-piece bamboo garden sets, practically&nbsp;<i>everything</i>... has helped drive a sharp economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>在新冠肺炎封锁和疫情刺激现金神奇地存入他们的银行账户后，数百万美国人进入了“善待自己”模式。对 PlayStations、木材、本田 CRV、LG InstaView 冰箱、五件套竹制花园套装的需求，实际上<i>一切</i>...帮助推动了经济的大幅复苏。</blockquote></p><p> But too many people wanting stuff results in a shortage of stuff. There isn't enough to go around. And that shortage is worse if less stuff is produced... or if it's stuck in transit...</p><p><blockquote>但是太多的人想要东西会导致东西短缺。没有足够的东西到处走。如果生产的东西减少，这种短缺会更糟……或者如果它被困在运输途中……</blockquote></p><p> Stimulus cash met up with pent-up demand and kicked the knees out of the global supply chain.</p><p><blockquote>刺激现金满足了被压抑的需求，并将膝盖踢出了全球供应链。</blockquote></p><p> It used to be a high form of capitalist triumph that Apple (AAPL) iPhone sources inputs from a network spanning 49 countries. But in a world of supply-chain paralysis, it's a headache.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 (AAPL) 的 iPhone 从覆盖 49 个国家的网络中获取输入，这曾经是资本主义胜利的一种高度形式。但在供应链瘫痪的世界里，这是一个令人头疼的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Like other basic infrastructure of modern civilization – the Internet, the electric grid, and cellular networks, for example – the global supply chain is something that we take for granted...&nbsp;<i>until it stops working</i>.</p><p><blockquote>就像现代文明的其他基本基础设施一样——例如互联网、电网和蜂窝网络——全球供应链是我们理所当然的……<i>直到它停止工作</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Still, if you really want something today – beef tenderloin, an iPhone 13, a Samsung 65-inch 4K TV – you're likely willing to pay more. After all, a shortage of something doesn't (usually) mean that it's not available at all. Rather, it means that the price goes up.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，如果你今天真的想要一些东西——牛柳、iPhone 13、三星65英寸4K电视——你可能愿意花更多的钱。毕竟，某样东西的短缺（通常）并不意味着它根本不可用。相反，这意味着价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> It's not a surprise that year-over-year inflation as of November clocked in at 6.8%, the highest reading since 1982.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，截至 11 月份的同比通胀率达到 6.8%，为 1982 年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Most Powerful Force in the World</b></p><p><blockquote><b>世界上最强大的力量</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation is right up there, along with gravity, the wrath of a person scorned, and a hungry baby, as&nbsp;<i>a force that will not be denied</i>...</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀就在那里，还有地心引力，一个被蔑视的人的愤怒，以及一个饥饿的婴儿，<i>不可否认的力量</i>...</blockquote></p><p> But for my money, what's more powerful than that force is&nbsp;<b>mean reversion</b>. It means that for every strong reaction, things eventually swing back the other way... and find their way to the middle again.</p><p><blockquote>但对我来说，比这种力量更强大的是<b>均值回归</b>这意味着每一次强烈的反应，事情最终都会反过来……...然后再次找到通往中间的路。</blockquote></p><p> When applied to investing, mean reversion refers to extreme price movements eventually correcting – reverting to the mean, like a rubber band. And when applied to many months of global supply-chain constrictions... sooner or later, things will spring back.</p><p><blockquote>当应用于投资时，均值回归是指最终修正的极端价格变动——回归均值，就像橡皮筋一样。当应用于数月的全球供应链紧缩时……事情迟早会卷土重来。</blockquote></p><p> We can already see it in the sharp decline in the cost of transporting goods. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures demand for capacity to ship dry goods, hit 15-year highs in early October – and since then, has fallen by more than half. Shipping rates are falling, and available ship storage capacity is rising – the opposite of what happens when global supply chains are under strain.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经可以从运输成本的急剧下降中看到这一点。衡量干货运力需求的波罗的海干散货指数在 10 月初触及 15 年来的新高，此后已下跌一半以上。运费正在下降，可用的船舶存储容量正在上升——这与全球供应链面临压力时的情况相反。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, a number of global automakers have indicated that they expect semiconductor supplies to increase... the shortage of which has been a big bottleneck for cars, along with everything else that uses microchips – from cellphones to cars to football helmets.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，一些全球汽车制造商表示，他们预计半导体供应将会增加……微芯片的短缺一直是汽车的一大瓶颈，其他所有使用微芯片的东西也是如此——从手机到汽车再到足球头盔。</blockquote></p><p> And since September, monthly manufacturing data from his Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index has shown strong improvement throughout much of Asia, led by Vietnam and Malaysia... That means output throughout that region – home to four of the world's six biggest manufacturing countries – is rebounding.</p><p><blockquote>自 9 月份以来，他的 Markit 采购经理人指数的月度制造业数据显示，以越南和马来西亚为首的亚洲大部分地区出现了强劲改善……这意味着该地区（世界六大制造业国家中四个的所在地）的产量正在反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here Comes the Bullwhip</b></p><p><blockquote><b>牛鞭来了</b></blockquote></p><p> You know what comes next.</p><p><blockquote>你知道接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p> Retailers that have spent months offering warmed-over \"global supply chain problem\" apologies to consumers are about to find themselves swamped with goods. All the Costco couches, Instant Pots, packages of dried mango, Teslas, and everything else that's been on order, will arrive... along with a lot more that wasn't on order.</p><p><blockquote>零售商花了几个月的时间向消费者道歉过热的“全球供应链问题”，他们即将发现自己被商品淹没了。所有的好市多沙发、速溶锅、芒果干包装、特斯拉以及其他所有订购的东西都会到达……还有更多没有订购的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Shortages will turn into surpluses, and \"out of stock\" will become \"inventory reduction sales.\"</p><p><blockquote>短缺会变成过剩，“缺货”会变成“去库存销售”。</blockquote></p><p> The \"bullwhip effect\" is what happens when demand distortion misinforms the supply chain... and it's about to hit in full force.</p><p><blockquote>“牛鞭效应”是当需求扭曲误导供应链时发生的事情……它即将全力袭击。</blockquote></p><p> So if you can convince the family to postpone Christmas for a while, you'll get a lot more return on your Christmas dollar next year. That's because everything is going to be on the mother of all sales, as the global supply chain finally chokes up all the goods that haven't been on their way.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你能说服家人推迟一段时间圣诞节，明年你的圣诞礼物就会有更多的回报。这是因为一切都将发生在所有销售之母身上，因为全球供应链最终会扼杀所有尚未上路的商品。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终逆向指标</b></blockquote></p><p> And there's another positive side effect...&nbsp;<i>lower inflation</i>.</p><p><blockquote>还有另一个积极的副作用……<i>降低通货膨胀</i>.</blockquote></p><p> It's not complicated... As the upward price pressure on goods across the economy dissipates, inflation will fall.</p><p><blockquote>这并不复杂……随着整个经济的商品价格上行压力消散，通货膨胀将会下降。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>New York Times</i>bestselling author Jim Rickards&nbsp;recently appeared on my colleague Daniela Cambone's show&nbsp;to say you should \"expect inflation to come down very quickly,\" due to incoming rate hikes expected from the Federal Reserve.... And you could see severe, \"tightening into weakness,\" with a potential of three rate hikes next year, he predicts. (Quoth the Raven covered that interview here on this site as well.)</p><p><blockquote><i>纽约时报</i>畅销书作家吉姆·里卡兹最近出现在我的同事丹妮拉·坎伯恩的节目中，他说，由于美联储即将加息，你应该“预计通胀会很快下降”…….他预测，你可能会看到严重的“收紧走向疲软”，明年可能会加息三次。（《乌鸦报》也在本网站上报道了那次采访。）</blockquote></p><p> What's more, there's another reason for inflation to decline... Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finally waved the white flag and admitted that inflation isn't \"transitory.\" That's been the Fed's preferred term for inflation, which has been steadily rising all year, from an annual rate of 1.4% in January to 6.8% in November.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，通胀下降还有另一个原因……美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔终于挥舞着白旗，承认通胀不是“暂时的”。这是美联储首选的通胀术语，全年通胀率一直在稳步上升，从 1 月份的 1.4% 年增长率上升到 11 月份的 6.8%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Transitory\" suggested that as the economy moved past pandemic-induced supply shortages, and as demand fueled by COVID-19 stimulus cash dissipated, recent price increases would gradually disappear.</p><p><blockquote>“暂时性”表明，随着经济摆脱大流行引发的供应短缺，以及随着 COVID-19 刺激现金推动的需求消散，近期的价格上涨将逐渐消失。</blockquote></p><p> And ironically, just as the Fed acknowledged the obvious – that inflation would be around for longer than a few months –&nbsp;<i>it's finally going to go away</i>.</p><p><blockquote>具有讽刺意味的是，正如美联储承认显而易见的事实——通货膨胀将持续几个月以上——<i>它终于要消失了</i>.</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is becoming the ultimate contrarian indicator... the proverbial bell ringing at the top of the market.</p><p><blockquote>美联储正在成为最终的逆向指标……众所周知，市场顶端的钟声响起。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After Christmas, Get Ready for the 'Inflation Bullwhip'<blockquote>圣诞节后，为“通胀牛鞭”做好准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter Christmas, Get Ready for the 'Inflation Bullwhip'<blockquote>圣诞节后，为“通胀牛鞭”做好准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 15:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The American economy is about to experience the economic equivalent of Indiana Jones' favorite toy in what's called the \"bullwhip effect.\"</p><p><blockquote>美国经济即将经历相当于印第安纳·琼斯最喜欢的玩具的经济效应，即所谓的“牛鞭效应”。</blockquote></p><p> All that means is that one small flick of the wrist leads to a big movement at the end of an oscillating supply-chain whip... and usually, a \"crack\" at the end of the whip.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着手腕的一个小动作会导致摆动的供应链鞭子末端的一个大动作……通常，鞭子末端会有一条“裂缝”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should expect two things in the next few months...</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该在未来几个月期待两件事……</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Post-Christmas buying that will make Black Friday and Cyber Monday look like high-priced sidewalk sales by comparison.</li>  <li>All the talk about inflation – now the highest since 1982 – is going to disappear.</li> </ol> <b>How We Got Here</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相比之下，圣诞节后的购买将使黑色星期五和网络星期一看起来像是高价的人行道销售。</li><li>所有关于通货膨胀的讨论——现在是1982年以来的最高水平——都将消失。</li></ol><b>我们是怎么来到这里的</b></blockquote></p><p> Millions of Americans moved into \"treat yourself\" mode after COVID-19 lockdowns and pandemic stimulus cash magically deposited into their bank accounts. Demand for PlayStations, lumber, Honda CRVs, LG InstaView fridges, five-piece bamboo garden sets, practically&nbsp;<i>everything</i>... has helped drive a sharp economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>在新冠肺炎封锁和疫情刺激现金神奇地存入他们的银行账户后，数百万美国人进入了“善待自己”模式。对 PlayStations、木材、本田 CRV、LG InstaView 冰箱、五件套竹制花园套装的需求，实际上<i>一切</i>...帮助推动了经济的大幅复苏。</blockquote></p><p> But too many people wanting stuff results in a shortage of stuff. There isn't enough to go around. And that shortage is worse if less stuff is produced... or if it's stuck in transit...</p><p><blockquote>但是太多的人想要东西会导致东西短缺。没有足够的东西到处走。如果生产的东西减少，这种短缺会更糟……或者如果它被困在运输途中……</blockquote></p><p> Stimulus cash met up with pent-up demand and kicked the knees out of the global supply chain.</p><p><blockquote>刺激现金满足了被压抑的需求，并将膝盖踢出了全球供应链。</blockquote></p><p> It used to be a high form of capitalist triumph that Apple (AAPL) iPhone sources inputs from a network spanning 49 countries. But in a world of supply-chain paralysis, it's a headache.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 (AAPL) 的 iPhone 从覆盖 49 个国家的网络中获取输入，这曾经是资本主义胜利的一种高度形式。但在供应链瘫痪的世界里，这是一个令人头疼的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Like other basic infrastructure of modern civilization – the Internet, the electric grid, and cellular networks, for example – the global supply chain is something that we take for granted...&nbsp;<i>until it stops working</i>.</p><p><blockquote>就像现代文明的其他基本基础设施一样——例如互联网、电网和蜂窝网络——全球供应链是我们理所当然的……<i>直到它停止工作</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Still, if you really want something today – beef tenderloin, an iPhone 13, a Samsung 65-inch 4K TV – you're likely willing to pay more. After all, a shortage of something doesn't (usually) mean that it's not available at all. Rather, it means that the price goes up.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，如果你今天真的想要一些东西——牛柳、iPhone 13、三星65英寸4K电视——你可能愿意花更多的钱。毕竟，某样东西的短缺（通常）并不意味着它根本不可用。相反，这意味着价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> It's not a surprise that year-over-year inflation as of November clocked in at 6.8%, the highest reading since 1982.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，截至 11 月份的同比通胀率达到 6.8%，为 1982 年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Most Powerful Force in the World</b></p><p><blockquote><b>世界上最强大的力量</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation is right up there, along with gravity, the wrath of a person scorned, and a hungry baby, as&nbsp;<i>a force that will not be denied</i>...</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀就在那里，还有地心引力，一个被蔑视的人的愤怒，以及一个饥饿的婴儿，<i>不可否认的力量</i>...</blockquote></p><p> But for my money, what's more powerful than that force is&nbsp;<b>mean reversion</b>. It means that for every strong reaction, things eventually swing back the other way... and find their way to the middle again.</p><p><blockquote>但对我来说，比这种力量更强大的是<b>均值回归</b>这意味着每一次强烈的反应，事情最终都会反过来……...然后再次找到通往中间的路。</blockquote></p><p> When applied to investing, mean reversion refers to extreme price movements eventually correcting – reverting to the mean, like a rubber band. And when applied to many months of global supply-chain constrictions... sooner or later, things will spring back.</p><p><blockquote>当应用于投资时，均值回归是指最终修正的极端价格变动——回归均值，就像橡皮筋一样。当应用于数月的全球供应链紧缩时……事情迟早会卷土重来。</blockquote></p><p> We can already see it in the sharp decline in the cost of transporting goods. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures demand for capacity to ship dry goods, hit 15-year highs in early October – and since then, has fallen by more than half. Shipping rates are falling, and available ship storage capacity is rising – the opposite of what happens when global supply chains are under strain.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经可以从运输成本的急剧下降中看到这一点。衡量干货运力需求的波罗的海干散货指数在 10 月初触及 15 年来的新高，此后已下跌一半以上。运费正在下降，可用的船舶存储容量正在上升——这与全球供应链面临压力时的情况相反。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, a number of global automakers have indicated that they expect semiconductor supplies to increase... the shortage of which has been a big bottleneck for cars, along with everything else that uses microchips – from cellphones to cars to football helmets.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，一些全球汽车制造商表示，他们预计半导体供应将会增加……微芯片的短缺一直是汽车的一大瓶颈，其他所有使用微芯片的东西也是如此——从手机到汽车再到足球头盔。</blockquote></p><p> And since September, monthly manufacturing data from his Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index has shown strong improvement throughout much of Asia, led by Vietnam and Malaysia... That means output throughout that region – home to four of the world's six biggest manufacturing countries – is rebounding.</p><p><blockquote>自 9 月份以来，他的 Markit 采购经理人指数的月度制造业数据显示，以越南和马来西亚为首的亚洲大部分地区出现了强劲改善……这意味着该地区（世界六大制造业国家中四个的所在地）的产量正在反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here Comes the Bullwhip</b></p><p><blockquote><b>牛鞭来了</b></blockquote></p><p> You know what comes next.</p><p><blockquote>你知道接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p> Retailers that have spent months offering warmed-over \"global supply chain problem\" apologies to consumers are about to find themselves swamped with goods. All the Costco couches, Instant Pots, packages of dried mango, Teslas, and everything else that's been on order, will arrive... along with a lot more that wasn't on order.</p><p><blockquote>零售商花了几个月的时间向消费者道歉过热的“全球供应链问题”，他们即将发现自己被商品淹没了。所有的好市多沙发、速溶锅、芒果干包装、特斯拉以及其他所有订购的东西都会到达……还有更多没有订购的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Shortages will turn into surpluses, and \"out of stock\" will become \"inventory reduction sales.\"</p><p><blockquote>短缺会变成过剩，“缺货”会变成“去库存销售”。</blockquote></p><p> The \"bullwhip effect\" is what happens when demand distortion misinforms the supply chain... and it's about to hit in full force.</p><p><blockquote>“牛鞭效应”是当需求扭曲误导供应链时发生的事情……它即将全力袭击。</blockquote></p><p> So if you can convince the family to postpone Christmas for a while, you'll get a lot more return on your Christmas dollar next year. That's because everything is going to be on the mother of all sales, as the global supply chain finally chokes up all the goods that haven't been on their way.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你能说服家人推迟一段时间圣诞节，明年你的圣诞礼物就会有更多的回报。这是因为一切都将发生在所有销售之母身上，因为全球供应链最终会扼杀所有尚未上路的商品。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终逆向指标</b></blockquote></p><p> And there's another positive side effect...&nbsp;<i>lower inflation</i>.</p><p><blockquote>还有另一个积极的副作用……<i>降低通货膨胀</i>.</blockquote></p><p> It's not complicated... As the upward price pressure on goods across the economy dissipates, inflation will fall.</p><p><blockquote>这并不复杂……随着整个经济的商品价格上行压力消散，通货膨胀将会下降。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>New York Times</i>bestselling author Jim Rickards&nbsp;recently appeared on my colleague Daniela Cambone's show&nbsp;to say you should \"expect inflation to come down very quickly,\" due to incoming rate hikes expected from the Federal Reserve.... And you could see severe, \"tightening into weakness,\" with a potential of three rate hikes next year, he predicts. (Quoth the Raven covered that interview here on this site as well.)</p><p><blockquote><i>纽约时报</i>畅销书作家吉姆·里卡兹最近出现在我的同事丹妮拉·坎伯恩的节目中，他说，由于美联储即将加息，你应该“预计通胀会很快下降”…….他预测，你可能会看到严重的“收紧走向疲软”，明年可能会加息三次。（《乌鸦报》也在本网站上报道了那次采访。）</blockquote></p><p> What's more, there's another reason for inflation to decline... Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finally waved the white flag and admitted that inflation isn't \"transitory.\" That's been the Fed's preferred term for inflation, which has been steadily rising all year, from an annual rate of 1.4% in January to 6.8% in November.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，通胀下降还有另一个原因……美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔终于挥舞着白旗，承认通胀不是“暂时的”。这是美联储首选的通胀术语，全年通胀率一直在稳步上升，从 1 月份的 1.4% 年增长率上升到 11 月份的 6.8%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Transitory\" suggested that as the economy moved past pandemic-induced supply shortages, and as demand fueled by COVID-19 stimulus cash dissipated, recent price increases would gradually disappear.</p><p><blockquote>“暂时性”表明，随着经济摆脱大流行引发的供应短缺，以及随着 COVID-19 刺激现金推动的需求消散，近期的价格上涨将逐渐消失。</blockquote></p><p> And ironically, just as the Fed acknowledged the obvious – that inflation would be around for longer than a few months –&nbsp;<i>it's finally going to go away</i>.</p><p><blockquote>具有讽刺意味的是，正如美联储承认显而易见的事实——通货膨胀将持续几个月以上——<i>它终于要消失了</i>.</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is becoming the ultimate contrarian indicator... the proverbial bell ringing at the top of the market.</p><p><blockquote>美联储正在成为最终的逆向指标……众所周知，市场顶端的钟声响起。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-12-22/after-christmas-get-ready-inflation-bullwhip\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-12-22/after-christmas-get-ready-inflation-bullwhip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166370237","content_text":"The American economy is about to experience the economic equivalent of Indiana Jones' favorite toy in what's called the \"bullwhip effect.\"\nAll that means is that one small flick of the wrist leads to a big movement at the end of an oscillating supply-chain whip... and usually, a \"crack\" at the end of the whip.\nInvestors should expect two things in the next few months...\n\nPost-Christmas buying that will make Black Friday and Cyber Monday look like high-priced sidewalk sales by comparison.\nAll the talk about inflation – now the highest since 1982 – is going to disappear.\n\nHow We Got Here\nMillions of Americans moved into \"treat yourself\" mode after COVID-19 lockdowns and pandemic stimulus cash magically deposited into their bank accounts. Demand for PlayStations, lumber, Honda CRVs, LG InstaView fridges, five-piece bamboo garden sets, practically everything... has helped drive a sharp economic recovery.\nBut too many people wanting stuff results in a shortage of stuff. There isn't enough to go around. And that shortage is worse if less stuff is produced... or if it's stuck in transit...\nStimulus cash met up with pent-up demand and kicked the knees out of the global supply chain.\nIt used to be a high form of capitalist triumph that Apple (AAPL) iPhone sources inputs from a network spanning 49 countries. But in a world of supply-chain paralysis, it's a headache.\nLike other basic infrastructure of modern civilization – the Internet, the electric grid, and cellular networks, for example – the global supply chain is something that we take for granted... until it stops working.\nStill, if you really want something today – beef tenderloin, an iPhone 13, a Samsung 65-inch 4K TV – you're likely willing to pay more. After all, a shortage of something doesn't (usually) mean that it's not available at all. Rather, it means that the price goes up.\nIt's not a surprise that year-over-year inflation as of November clocked in at 6.8%, the highest reading since 1982.\nThe Most Powerful Force in the World\nInflation is right up there, along with gravity, the wrath of a person scorned, and a hungry baby, as a force that will not be denied...\nBut for my money, what's more powerful than that force is mean reversion. It means that for every strong reaction, things eventually swing back the other way... and find their way to the middle again.\nWhen applied to investing, mean reversion refers to extreme price movements eventually correcting – reverting to the mean, like a rubber band. And when applied to many months of global supply-chain constrictions... sooner or later, things will spring back.\nWe can already see it in the sharp decline in the cost of transporting goods. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures demand for capacity to ship dry goods, hit 15-year highs in early October – and since then, has fallen by more than half. Shipping rates are falling, and available ship storage capacity is rising – the opposite of what happens when global supply chains are under strain.\nMeanwhile, a number of global automakers have indicated that they expect semiconductor supplies to increase... the shortage of which has been a big bottleneck for cars, along with everything else that uses microchips – from cellphones to cars to football helmets.\nAnd since September, monthly manufacturing data from his Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index has shown strong improvement throughout much of Asia, led by Vietnam and Malaysia... That means output throughout that region – home to four of the world's six biggest manufacturing countries – is rebounding.\nHere Comes the Bullwhip\nYou know what comes next.\nRetailers that have spent months offering warmed-over \"global supply chain problem\" apologies to consumers are about to find themselves swamped with goods. All the Costco couches, Instant Pots, packages of dried mango, Teslas, and everything else that's been on order, will arrive... along with a lot more that wasn't on order.\nShortages will turn into surpluses, and \"out of stock\" will become \"inventory reduction sales.\"\nThe \"bullwhip effect\" is what happens when demand distortion misinforms the supply chain... and it's about to hit in full force.\nSo if you can convince the family to postpone Christmas for a while, you'll get a lot more return on your Christmas dollar next year. That's because everything is going to be on the mother of all sales, as the global supply chain finally chokes up all the goods that haven't been on their way.\nThe Ultimate Contrarian Indicator\nAnd there's another positive side effect... lower inflation.\nIt's not complicated... As the upward price pressure on goods across the economy dissipates, inflation will fall.\nNew York Timesbestselling author Jim Rickards recently appeared on my colleague Daniela Cambone's show to say you should \"expect inflation to come down very quickly,\" due to incoming rate hikes expected from the Federal Reserve.... And you could see severe, \"tightening into weakness,\" with a potential of three rate hikes next year, he predicts. (Quoth the Raven covered that interview here on this site as well.)\nWhat's more, there's another reason for inflation to decline... Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finally waved the white flag and admitted that inflation isn't \"transitory.\" That's been the Fed's preferred term for inflation, which has been steadily rising all year, from an annual rate of 1.4% in January to 6.8% in November.\n\"Transitory\" suggested that as the economy moved past pandemic-induced supply shortages, and as demand fueled by COVID-19 stimulus cash dissipated, recent price increases would gradually disappear.\nAnd ironically, just as the Fed acknowledged the obvious – that inflation would be around for longer than a few months – it's finally going to go away.\nThe Fed is becoming the ultimate contrarian indicator... the proverbial bell ringing at the top of the market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}