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- 桓毓桓毓
  ·02-02
  都是犹太财团的做空，还新任美联主席，忽悠小孩呢？
  金银“史诗级巨震”之后，可以抄底了吗？
  此时的下跌是市场在测试新任美联储主席的底线，也是对前期疯狂投机情绪的暴力修正。沃什被视为“鹰派”，其核心主张包括“降息+缩表”。CME在1月底连续两次上调黄金和白银保证金，其中白银从11%上调至15%；上期所亦跟进上调。此外，白银ETF持仓量大幅下滑也是重要的调整信号。天风证券认为，短期内黄金将进入宽幅震荡期，买入情绪偏谨慎。华泰证券明确警告，短期“抄底”需要谨慎。
  金银“史诗级巨震”之后，可以抄底了吗？
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- 桓毓桓毓
  ·2021-06-24
  充值100，认购170多股，希望能吃到肉
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- 桓毓桓毓
  ·2021-06-24
  储值100，认购170多股，希望能吃到肉！
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17:58","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"金银“史诗级巨震”之后，可以抄底了吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174078156","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"此时的下跌是市场在测试新任美联储主席的底线，也是对前期疯狂投机情绪的暴力修正。沃什被视为“鹰派”，其核心主张包括“降息+缩表”。CME在1月底连续两次上调黄金和白银保证金，其中白银从11%上调至15%；上期所亦跟进上调。此外，白银ETF持仓量大幅下滑也是重要的调整信号。天风证券认为，短期内黄金将进入宽幅震荡期，买入情绪偏谨慎。华泰证券明确警告，短期“抄底”需要谨慎。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>共识是：此刻不宜盲目抄底。虽长期牛市逻辑未变，但短期抛压未尽、波动巨大。华泰证券等多家机构分析师建议保持耐心，等待市场波动率从极端高位（如黄金IV35%）显著回落，并观察关键支撑位（如黄金4700美元/盎司） 的企稳信号，避免在“雪崩”中伸手接刀。</p></blockquote><p>周一的贵金属市场延续周五下跌趋势，现货白银单日暴跌7%，现货黄金暴跌4.7%，一度跌破4500美元关口。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/719af65820bf3e4e56cb525499ff1367\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"693\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a9cad41c75c968d2db677286c64e6e8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">现在的局面非常清晰：<strong>资金获利了结，杠杆资金正在被强制出清。</strong>多家研究机构认为，尽管长期的地缘博弈和债务逻辑未变，但短期内，不要试图在雪崩时伸手去接“带血的筹码”。此时的下跌是市场在测试新任美联储主席的底线，也是对前期疯狂投机情绪的暴力修正。</p><h2 id=\"id_3126444166\" style=\"text-align: left;\">金银暴跌：不仅是沃什，更是去杠杆的连锁反应</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次暴跌并非单一因素所致，而是政策预期、交易拥挤度与交易所干预的共振。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1. 导火索：沃什获提名，鹰派预期升温。</strong>华泰证券与天风证券均指出，特朗普提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）为新任美联储主席是直接触发剂。沃什被视为“鹰派”，其核心主张包括“降息+缩表”。天风证券补充，沃什曾在2006-2011年任职期间以“通胀鹰派”著称，市场担忧其上任后美联储独立性危机降温，导致美元反弹，流动性收紧预期压制了贵金属。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2. 机制性杀跌：交易所联手“降温”。</strong>华泰证券与财通证券强调了交易所干预的影响。CME（芝商所）和上期所几乎同时提高保证金比例。CME在1月底连续两次上调黄金和白银保证金，其中白银从11%上调至15%；上期所亦跟进上调。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财通证券补充了<strong>逼仓与期权Gamma挤压</strong>的因素。截至1月29日，沪银主力合约虚实盘比高达8.75，显著高于历史同期；同时，大量散户买入看涨期权，迫使做市商买入期货对冲，推高价格。一旦交易所强化干预（如CME针对金银保证金已上调6次），资金流出，这种正反馈循环瞬间逆转为崩塌。此外，白银ETF持仓量大幅下滑也是重要的调整信号。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65d8ac87cc6d07e6a0c279947af04bd3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"646\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e933edec39ca1a5f72f83a62ed8a69d3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"593\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3. 根本原因：极致拥挤的投机仓位与获利了结。</strong>华泰证券指出，暴跌前有色（尤其是白银）是全球做多最拥挤的品种。天风证券数据显示，黄金14天RSI指标在1月28日突破90，为本世纪以来首次，显示极度“超买”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">方正证券监测到，1月29日白银波动率指数升至111，刷新历史新高。财通证券认为，前期价格极速上涨是由逼仓叠加期权伽马挤压效应助推的，一旦情绪反转，去杠杆过程异常惨烈。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86fc78017ed7c8d8a6223eb3b7e0017d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"576\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>4. 宏观扰动：AI科技股盈利担忧。</strong>华泰证券还提到，微软、特斯拉等科技巨头财报引发市场对AI投资回报的担忧，导致美股risk off（避险）情绪升温，部分资金为补救股市流动性而抛售贵金属。</p><h2 id=\"id_40138488\" style=\"text-align: left;\">后市行情：长期逻辑未改，短期震荡难免           </h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管短期遭受重创，但各家机构普遍认为贵金属的长期牛市逻辑尚未根本逆转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1. 长期逻辑未变，短期进入震荡。</strong>天风证券认为，短期内黄金将进入宽幅震荡期，买入情绪偏谨慎。但处于世界竞争格局关键节点，全球央行对黄金的长线配置需求将继续充当价格的根本支撑，“黄金的故事”不会就此结束。 财通证券亦表示，长期逻辑尚未反转。国际市场对美国债务可持续性及美联储独立性的担忧，依然会推动各国央行及私人部门增持黄金储备。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2. 政策不确定性仍存。</strong>华泰证券维持长期看多观点，认为有色仍是全球制造业周期、地缘秩序重构、AI科技等驱动因素共振最明显的品种。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">方正证券分析认为，后续市场走势取决于多重因子的情景演绎。关键变量在于：<strong>一是大国博弈的长期性与可能的短期缓和窗口</strong>；<strong>二是AI技术推动全要素生产率跃升的实际进程；三是美联储新主席沃什在内部政治阻力（如反对提名、内部分歧、前政府施压）下，能否坚守其政策主张（如独立性、缩表）。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">方正证券综合推演后认为，若要贵金属牛市逻辑彻底逆转，需同时满足多项严苛条件（如全球生产力迅速革命、沃什强力推行紧缩且未扰乱市场、央行购金需求消退等），<strong>这一情景发生概率极低。</strong>因此，贵金属在经历充分调整释放风险后，其长期配置价值依然突出，建议关注业绩稳健、质地优秀、成长潜力明确且估值合理的核心公司。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72567538845e7ff7d668acb563d256a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"375\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3149773078\" style=\"text-align: left;\">抄底时机：切勿急于接飞刀，等待波动率回归</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于投资者最关心的“何时入场”，各机构普遍建议保持耐心，等待波动率回归。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1. 关注波动率回落。</strong>华泰证券明确警告，短期“抄底”需要谨慎。由于市场波动率维持高位，去杠杆和挤泡沫仍在持续。 财通证券给出了具体的量化指标：建议等待隐含波动率回调至20%以下，这可能是再次做多的时间点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2. 参考历史回调周期。</strong>财通证券复盘历史数据指出，近年来黄金阶段性见顶后，平均回调时间约18天，回调幅度约8%。这为投资者提供了时间窗口的参考。华泰证券建议等待市场波动率从极端高位（如黄金IV&gt;35%）显著回落，并观察关键支撑位（如黄金4700美元/盎司） 的企稳信号，避免在“雪崩”中伸手接刀。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3. 警惕现货与期货价差风险。</strong>华泰证券特别提示国内投资者，沪银存在补跌空间。暴跌发生时，沪银1月30日夜盘封盘价对应111美元/盎司，而伦敦银已跌至85美元/盎司，这意味着沪银较外盘仍有约30%的溢价空间，需警惕沪银补跌风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>4. 关注交割月逼仓风险。</strong>华泰证券提到，3月是白银主要交割月，目前CME期货总持仓量远高于可交割库存，需关注交割月是否会出现逼仓行情，这既是风险也是潜在的博弈点。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n金银“史诗级巨震”之后，可以抄底了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2026-02-02 17:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>共识是：此刻不宜盲目抄底。虽长期牛市逻辑未变，但短期抛压未尽、波动巨大。华泰证券等多家机构分析师建议保持耐心，等待市场波动率从极端高位（如黄金IV35%）显著回落，并观察关键支撑位（如黄金4700美元/盎司） 的企稳信号，避免在“雪崩”中伸手接刀。周一的贵金属市场延续周五下跌趋势，现货白银单日暴跌7%，现货黄金暴跌4.7%，一度跌破4500美元关口。现在的局面非常清晰：资金获利了结，杠杆资金正在被...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59b88731b8c06f5f2f331abdc0376b0","relate_stocks":{"01787":"山东黄金","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","RGLD":"皇家黄金","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","EGO":"埃氏金业","VGZ":"Vista Gold Corp","USAU":"美国黄金公司","01818":"招金矿业","06693":"赤峰黄金","HMY":"哈莫尼黄金","B":"Barrick Mining Corporation","02899":"紫金矿业","03330":"灵宝黄金","NEM":"纽曼矿业","02099":"中国黄金国际","03939":"万国黄金集团","UGL":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares","AEM":"伊格尔矿业","GFI":"金田","CDE":"科尔黛伦矿业","AU":"AngloGold Ashanti Ltd ADS","EQX":"EQUINOX GOLD CORP","HL":"赫克拉矿业","06181":"老铺黄金","KGC":"金罗斯黄金"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174078156","content_text":"共识是：此刻不宜盲目抄底。虽长期牛市逻辑未变，但短期抛压未尽、波动巨大。华泰证券等多家机构分析师建议保持耐心，等待市场波动率从极端高位（如黄金IV35%）显著回落，并观察关键支撑位（如黄金4700美元/盎司） 的企稳信号，避免在“雪崩”中伸手接刀。周一的贵金属市场延续周五下跌趋势，现货白银单日暴跌7%，现货黄金暴跌4.7%，一度跌破4500美元关口。现在的局面非常清晰：资金获利了结，杠杆资金正在被强制出清。多家研究机构认为，尽管长期的地缘博弈和债务逻辑未变，但短期内，不要试图在雪崩时伸手去接“带血的筹码”。此时的下跌是市场在测试新任美联储主席的底线，也是对前期疯狂投机情绪的暴力修正。金银暴跌：不仅是沃什，更是去杠杆的连锁反应本次暴跌并非单一因素所致，而是政策预期、交易拥挤度与交易所干预的共振。1. 导火索：沃什获提名，鹰派预期升温。华泰证券与天风证券均指出，特朗普提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）为新任美联储主席是直接触发剂。沃什被视为“鹰派”，其核心主张包括“降息+缩表”。天风证券补充，沃什曾在2006-2011年任职期间以“通胀鹰派”著称，市场担忧其上任后美联储独立性危机降温，导致美元反弹，流动性收紧预期压制了贵金属。2. 机制性杀跌：交易所联手“降温”。华泰证券与财通证券强调了交易所干预的影响。CME（芝商所）和上期所几乎同时提高保证金比例。CME在1月底连续两次上调黄金和白银保证金，其中白银从11%上调至15%；上期所亦跟进上调。财通证券补充了逼仓与期权Gamma挤压的因素。截至1月29日，沪银主力合约虚实盘比高达8.75，显著高于历史同期；同时，大量散户买入看涨期权，迫使做市商买入期货对冲，推高价格。一旦交易所强化干预（如CME针对金银保证金已上调6次），资金流出，这种正反馈循环瞬间逆转为崩塌。此外，白银ETF持仓量大幅下滑也是重要的调整信号。3. 根本原因：极致拥挤的投机仓位与获利了结。华泰证券指出，暴跌前有色（尤其是白银）是全球做多最拥挤的品种。天风证券数据显示，黄金14天RSI指标在1月28日突破90，为本世纪以来首次，显示极度“超买”。方正证券监测到，1月29日白银波动率指数升至111，刷新历史新高。财通证券认为，前期价格极速上涨是由逼仓叠加期权伽马挤压效应助推的，一旦情绪反转，去杠杆过程异常惨烈。4. 宏观扰动：AI科技股盈利担忧。华泰证券还提到，微软、特斯拉等科技巨头财报引发市场对AI投资回报的担忧，导致美股risk off（避险）情绪升温，部分资金为补救股市流动性而抛售贵金属。后市行情：长期逻辑未改，短期震荡难免           尽管短期遭受重创，但各家机构普遍认为贵金属的长期牛市逻辑尚未根本逆转。1. 长期逻辑未变，短期进入震荡。天风证券认为，短期内黄金将进入宽幅震荡期，买入情绪偏谨慎。但处于世界竞争格局关键节点，全球央行对黄金的长线配置需求将继续充当价格的根本支撑，“黄金的故事”不会就此结束。 财通证券亦表示，长期逻辑尚未反转。国际市场对美国债务可持续性及美联储独立性的担忧，依然会推动各国央行及私人部门增持黄金储备。2. 政策不确定性仍存。华泰证券维持长期看多观点，认为有色仍是全球制造业周期、地缘秩序重构、AI科技等驱动因素共振最明显的品种。方正证券分析认为，后续市场走势取决于多重因子的情景演绎。关键变量在于：一是大国博弈的长期性与可能的短期缓和窗口；二是AI技术推动全要素生产率跃升的实际进程；三是美联储新主席沃什在内部政治阻力（如反对提名、内部分歧、前政府施压）下，能否坚守其政策主张（如独立性、缩表）。方正证券综合推演后认为，若要贵金属牛市逻辑彻底逆转，需同时满足多项严苛条件（如全球生产力迅速革命、沃什强力推行紧缩且未扰乱市场、央行购金需求消退等），这一情景发生概率极低。因此，贵金属在经历充分调整释放风险后，其长期配置价值依然突出，建议关注业绩稳健、质地优秀、成长潜力明确且估值合理的核心公司。抄底时机：切勿急于接飞刀，等待波动率回归对于投资者最关心的“何时入场”，各机构普遍建议保持耐心，等待波动率回归。1. 关注波动率回落。华泰证券明确警告，短期“抄底”需要谨慎。由于市场波动率维持高位，去杠杆和挤泡沫仍在持续。 财通证券给出了具体的量化指标：建议等待隐含波动率回调至20%以下，这可能是再次做多的时间点。2. 参考历史回调周期。财通证券复盘历史数据指出，近年来黄金阶段性见顶后，平均回调时间约18天，回调幅度约8%。这为投资者提供了时间窗口的参考。华泰证券建议等待市场波动率从极端高位（如黄金IV>35%）显著回落，并观察关键支撑位（如黄金4700美元/盎司） 的企稳信号，避免在“雪崩”中伸手接刀。3. 警惕现货与期货价差风险。华泰证券特别提示国内投资者，沪银存在补跌空间。暴跌发生时，沪银1月30日夜盘封盘价对应111美元/盎司，而伦敦银已跌至85美元/盎司，这意味着沪银较外盘仍有约30%的溢价空间，需警惕沪银补跌风险。4. 关注交割月逼仓风险。华泰证券提到，3月是白银主要交割月，目前CME期货总持仓量远高于可交割库存，需关注交割月是否会出现逼仓行情，这既是风险也是潜在的博弈点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02303":2,"06693":2,"AEM":2,"EGO":2,"GCmain":2,"KGC":2,"SILmain":2,"XAGUSD.FOREX":2,"03939":2,"UGL":2,"MGCmain":2,"VGZ":2,"AU":2,"MGC2602":2,"USAU":2,"HMY":2,"SImain":2,"NEM":2,"GFI":2,"IAU":2,"GLD":2,"EQX":2,"XAUUSD.FOREX":2,"SIL2603":2,"RGLD":2,"HL":2,"01818":2,"B":2,"02099":2,"02899":2,"03330":2,"06181":2,"CDE":2,"01787":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":128479825,"gmtCreate":1624529472867,"gmtModify":1624529472867,"author":{"id":"3584679463630607","authorId":"3584679463630607","name":"桓毓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e42406f1bba5bbc4e34dc7d29a80f370","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584679463630607","idStr":"3584679463630607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"充值100，认购170多股，希望能吃到肉","listText":"充值100，认购170多股，希望能吃到肉","text":"充值100，认购170多股，希望能吃到肉","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/538943741491704c5b3242736c7cc908","width":"1176","height":"2400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128479825","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":66,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":128443954,"gmtCreate":1624529056278,"gmtModify":1624529440183,"author":{"id":"3584679463630607","authorId":"3584679463630607","name":"桓毓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e42406f1bba5bbc4e34dc7d29a80f370","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584679463630607","idStr":"3584679463630607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"储值100，认购170多股，希望能吃到肉！","listText":"储值100，认购170多股，希望能吃到肉！","text":"储值100，认购170多股，希望能吃到肉！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/538943741491704c5b3242736c7cc908","width":"1176","height":"2400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128443954","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}