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Sean19
Sean19
·
2021-10-04
Nice
Tim Collins: AMC’s No Investment, But It Could Be a Trade<blockquote>蒂姆-柯林斯:AMC 没有投资,但可能是一笔交易</blockquote>
Through no fault of its own AMC Entertainment Holding (AMC) has become one of the meme stocks. A leg
Tim Collins: AMC’s No Investment, But It Could Be a Trade<blockquote>蒂姆-柯林斯:AMC 没有投资,但可能是一笔交易</blockquote>
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Sean19
Sean19
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2021-08-06
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Sean19
Sean19
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2021-08-03
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Sean19
Sean19
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2021-07-29
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Sean19
Sean19
·
2021-07-28
Comment pld
Fed Meeting Will Focus on Tapering Timeline.<blockquote>美联储会议将重点讨论缩减规模的时间表。</blockquote>
Officials are looking to forge consensus on how and when to eventually reduce their asset purchases
Fed Meeting Will Focus on Tapering Timeline.<blockquote>美联储会议将重点讨论缩减规模的时间表。</blockquote>
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Sean19
Sean19
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2021-07-26
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Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.<blockquote>特斯拉今天公布收益。这是最重要的。</blockquote>
Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report. The
Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.<blockquote>特斯拉今天公布收益。这是最重要的。</blockquote>
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Sean19
Sean19
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2021-07-20
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Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation<blockquote>收益率暴跌背后:这是一个增长故事,而不是对通胀的反思</blockquote>
In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th
Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation<blockquote>收益率暴跌背后:这是一个增长故事,而不是对通胀的反思</blockquote>
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Sean19
Sean19
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2021-07-13
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Sean19
Sean19
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2021-07-12
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SPI Energy stock jumps 17% on launching next generation electric pickup truck EF1-T<blockquote>SPI Energy 推出下一代电动皮卡 EF1-T,股价上涨 17%</blockquote>
SPI Energy stock jumps 17% on announcing the launch of next-generation electric pickup truck, EF1-T
SPI Energy stock jumps 17% on launching next generation electric pickup truck EF1-T<blockquote>SPI Energy 推出下一代电动皮卡 EF1-T,股价上涨 17%</blockquote>
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Sean19
Sean19
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2021-07-11
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The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易远未结束。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote>
It seemed to be only a matter of time. When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de
The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易远未结束。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote>
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A leg","content":"<p>Through no fault of its own AMC Entertainment Holding (<b>AMC</b>) has become one of the meme stocks. A legacy company, they got battered by the pandemic (turns out mass quarantines did not help the business of sitting next to strangers for hours on end). Then the gamblers and market manipulators over at r/wallstreetbets got their hands on AMC’s stock and the rest is very weird and recent history.</p><p><blockquote>由于其自身的AMC院线控股公司没有过错(<b>AMC</b>)已成为模因股之一。作为一家传统公司,他们受到了疫情的打击(事实证明,大规模隔离对连续几个小时坐在陌生人旁边的业务没有帮助)。然后,r/wallstreetbets 的赌徒和市场操纵者得到了 AMC 的股票,剩下的就成了非常奇怪的历史了。</blockquote></p><p> Now, Tim Collins thinks something might be about to happen.</p><p><blockquote>现在,蒂姆·柯林斯认为可能会发生一些事情。</blockquote></p><p> “Ironically, it seems every time the SEC makes a knock against meme stocks, it rallies their supporters,”Collins wrote recently on Real Money. “That won't last forever, and I have no idea when it will end; however, combining that news along with the current chart pattern has me thinking volatility.”</p><p><blockquote>“柯林斯最近在 Real Money 上写道:”具有讽刺意味的是,美国证券交易委员会似乎每次打击 meme 股票,都会团结它们的支持者。“这不会永远持续下去,我也不知道它何时会结束;不过,将这一消息与当前的图表模式结合起来,让我想到了波动性。”</blockquote></p><p> Since hitting highs early in September, AMC has been “trickling lower to the tune of nearly 25% off the highs. This has really been a round trip since the August breakout. We can spot a nice trend line of support going back nearly two months. It might not be as strong as it appears, given all the white space above the trend line over the past month; however, it is also in line with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), so it can't be dismissed. That SMA helps alleviate the slight weakness of the support area.”</p><p><blockquote>自 9 月初触及高点以来,AMC 一直在 “从高点下跌近 25%”。自 8 月份突破以来,这确实是一轮反弹。我们可以在近两个月前发现一条不错的趋势支撑线。考虑到过去一个月趋势线上方的所有空白空间,它可能并不像看起来那么强劲;但也符合50日简单移动平均线(SMA),不能不屑一顾。移动平均线有助于缓解支撑区域的轻微疲软。”</blockquote></p><p> He adds that “The oversold nature of the Full Stochastic and MACD indicator, both of which appear ready to cross bullish, plus the bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse (PSAR) create an interesting bounce candidate here. Now, if you are looking long, a close under $38 looks like a clear stop to me. The gap fill to $44 appears to be the upside target. A close over $45 should return us to $50 while a close under $38 should take us into the $32 to $34 range.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充说:“全随机指标和 MACD 指标的超卖性质(这两个指标似乎都已准备好穿越多头),再加上看涨的抛物线止损反转(PSAR),在这里创造了一个有趣的反弹候选指标。现在,如果你做多,在我看来,收盘价低于 38 美元是一个明显的止损点。回补至 44 美元的缺口似乎是上行目标。如果收盘价高于45美元,我们应该会回到50美元,而如果收盘价低于38美元,我们应该会回到32美元到34美元的区间。”</blockquote></p><p> But Collins is clear: this is pure trading, not investment. The technical indicators for AMC show that the market may be ready to put some money back into the stock, so there might be an opportunity for shorter term players to buy in. Maybe. At least, Collins writes, if the stock starts to tick back up traders can probably expect it to keep going up for a little while.</p><p><blockquote>但柯林斯很清楚:这是纯粹的交易,不是投资。AMC 的技术指标显示,市场可能已准备好将一些资金投入该股,因此短期参与者可能有机会买入。也许。柯林斯写道,至少,如果该股开始回升,交易者可能会预期它将继续上涨一段时间。</blockquote></p><p> There’s no business-based upside here though.</p><p><blockquote>不过,这里没有商业上的好处。</blockquote></p><p> “On a fundamental basis, there's really nothing here for me. Accepting Dogecoin is pandering to the crowd in an attempt to win back meme traders. It's not as though there is an uproar of demand with people standing in front of the box office demanding to pay in Dogecoin.”</p><p><blockquote>“从根本上说,这里真的没有什么适合我的。接受狗狗币是在迎合大众,试图赢回备忘录交易者。并不是说有人站在售票处前要求用狗狗币支付。”</blockquote></p><p> Memes are still going to meme and AMC might not be a good investment, but it might be a good trade.</p><p><blockquote>模因仍然会成为模因,AMC 可能不是一项好的投资,但它可能是一项不错的交易。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tim Collins: AMC’s No Investment, But It Could Be a Trade<blockquote>蒂姆-柯林斯:AMC 没有投资,但可能是一笔交易</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTim Collins: AMC’s No Investment, But It Could Be a Trade<blockquote>蒂姆-柯林斯:AMC 没有投资,但可能是一笔交易</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-04 22:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Through no fault of its own AMC Entertainment Holding (<b>AMC</b>) has become one of the meme stocks. A legacy company, they got battered by the pandemic (turns out mass quarantines did not help the business of sitting next to strangers for hours on end). Then the gamblers and market manipulators over at r/wallstreetbets got their hands on AMC’s stock and the rest is very weird and recent history.</p><p><blockquote>由于其自身的AMC院线控股公司没有过错(<b>AMC</b>)已成为模因股之一。作为一家传统公司,他们受到了疫情的打击(事实证明,大规模隔离对连续几个小时坐在陌生人旁边的业务没有帮助)。然后,r/wallstreetbets 的赌徒和市场操纵者得到了 AMC 的股票,剩下的就成了非常奇怪的历史了。</blockquote></p><p> Now, Tim Collins thinks something might be about to happen.</p><p><blockquote>现在,蒂姆·柯林斯认为可能会发生一些事情。</blockquote></p><p> “Ironically, it seems every time the SEC makes a knock against meme stocks, it rallies their supporters,”Collins wrote recently on Real Money. “That won't last forever, and I have no idea when it will end; however, combining that news along with the current chart pattern has me thinking volatility.”</p><p><blockquote>“柯林斯最近在 Real Money 上写道:”具有讽刺意味的是,美国证券交易委员会似乎每次打击 meme 股票,都会团结它们的支持者。“这不会永远持续下去,我也不知道它何时会结束;不过,将这一消息与当前的图表模式结合起来,让我想到了波动性。”</blockquote></p><p> Since hitting highs early in September, AMC has been “trickling lower to the tune of nearly 25% off the highs. This has really been a round trip since the August breakout. We can spot a nice trend line of support going back nearly two months. It might not be as strong as it appears, given all the white space above the trend line over the past month; however, it is also in line with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), so it can't be dismissed. That SMA helps alleviate the slight weakness of the support area.”</p><p><blockquote>自 9 月初触及高点以来,AMC 一直在 “从高点下跌近 25%”。自 8 月份突破以来,这确实是一轮反弹。我们可以在近两个月前发现一条不错的趋势支撑线。考虑到过去一个月趋势线上方的所有空白空间,它可能并不像看起来那么强劲;但也符合50日简单移动平均线(SMA),不能不屑一顾。移动平均线有助于缓解支撑区域的轻微疲软。”</blockquote></p><p> He adds that “The oversold nature of the Full Stochastic and MACD indicator, both of which appear ready to cross bullish, plus the bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse (PSAR) create an interesting bounce candidate here. Now, if you are looking long, a close under $38 looks like a clear stop to me. The gap fill to $44 appears to be the upside target. A close over $45 should return us to $50 while a close under $38 should take us into the $32 to $34 range.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充说:“全随机指标和 MACD 指标的超卖性质(这两个指标似乎都已准备好穿越多头),再加上看涨的抛物线止损反转(PSAR),在这里创造了一个有趣的反弹候选指标。现在,如果你做多,在我看来,收盘价低于 38 美元是一个明显的止损点。回补至 44 美元的缺口似乎是上行目标。如果收盘价高于45美元,我们应该会回到50美元,而如果收盘价低于38美元,我们应该会回到32美元到34美元的区间。”</blockquote></p><p> But Collins is clear: this is pure trading, not investment. The technical indicators for AMC show that the market may be ready to put some money back into the stock, so there might be an opportunity for shorter term players to buy in. Maybe. At least, Collins writes, if the stock starts to tick back up traders can probably expect it to keep going up for a little while.</p><p><blockquote>但柯林斯很清楚:这是纯粹的交易,不是投资。AMC 的技术指标显示,市场可能已准备好将一些资金投入该股,因此短期参与者可能有机会买入。也许。柯林斯写道,至少,如果该股开始回升,交易者可能会预期它将继续上涨一段时间。</blockquote></p><p> There’s no business-based upside here though.</p><p><blockquote>不过,这里没有商业上的好处。</blockquote></p><p> “On a fundamental basis, there's really nothing here for me. Accepting Dogecoin is pandering to the crowd in an attempt to win back meme traders. It's not as though there is an uproar of demand with people standing in front of the box office demanding to pay in Dogecoin.”</p><p><blockquote>“从根本上说,这里真的没有什么适合我的。接受狗狗币是在迎合大众,试图赢回备忘录交易者。并不是说有人站在售票处前要求用狗狗币支付。”</blockquote></p><p> Memes are still going to meme and AMC might not be a good investment, but it might be a good trade.</p><p><blockquote>模因仍然会成为模因,AMC 可能不是一项好的投资,但它可能是一项不错的交易。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/tim-collins-amcs-no-investment-but-it-could-be-a-trade\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/tim-collins-amcs-no-investment-but-it-could-be-a-trade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191086684","content_text":"Through no fault of its own AMC Entertainment Holding (AMC) has become one of the meme stocks. A legacy company, they got battered by the pandemic (turns out mass quarantines did not help the business of sitting next to strangers for hours on end). Then the gamblers and market manipulators over at r/wallstreetbets got their hands on AMC’s stock and the rest is very weird and recent history.\nNow, Tim Collins thinks something might be about to happen.\n“Ironically, it seems every time the SEC makes a knock against meme stocks, it rallies their supporters,”Collins wrote recently on Real Money. “That won't last forever, and I have no idea when it will end; however, combining that news along with the current chart pattern has me thinking volatility.”\nSince hitting highs early in September, AMC has been “trickling lower to the tune of nearly 25% off the highs. This has really been a round trip since the August breakout. We can spot a nice trend line of support going back nearly two months. It might not be as strong as it appears, given all the white space above the trend line over the past month; however, it is also in line with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), so it can't be dismissed. That SMA helps alleviate the slight weakness of the support area.”\nHe adds that “The oversold nature of the Full Stochastic and MACD indicator, both of which appear ready to cross bullish, plus the bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse (PSAR) create an interesting bounce candidate here. Now, if you are looking long, a close under $38 looks like a clear stop to me. The gap fill to $44 appears to be the upside target. A close over $45 should return us to $50 while a close under $38 should take us into the $32 to $34 range.”\nBut Collins is clear: this is pure trading, not investment. The technical indicators for AMC show that the market may be ready to put some money back into the stock, so there might be an opportunity for shorter term players to buy in. Maybe. At least, Collins writes, if the stock starts to tick back up traders can probably expect it to keep going up for a little while.\nThere’s no business-based upside here though.\n“On a fundamental basis, there's really nothing here for me. Accepting Dogecoin is pandering to the crowd in an attempt to win back meme traders. It's not as though there is an uproar of demand with people standing in front of the box office demanding to pay in Dogecoin.”\nMemes are still going to meme and AMC might not be a good investment, but it might be a good trade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4835,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":899475741,"gmtCreate":1628213230683,"gmtModify":1631886795494,"author":{"id":"3583745164603922","authorId":"3583745164603922","name":"Sean19","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583745164603922","authorIdStr":"3583745164603922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899475741","repostId":"2157456017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807133092,"gmtCreate":1628004554116,"gmtModify":1631886795506,"author":{"id":"3583745164603922","authorId":"3583745164603922","name":"Sean19","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583745164603922","authorIdStr":"3583745164603922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807133092","repostId":"1127822150","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808189170,"gmtCreate":1627564959090,"gmtModify":1631886795519,"author":{"id":"3583745164603922","authorId":"3583745164603922","name":"Sean19","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583745164603922","authorIdStr":"3583745164603922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808189170","repostId":"1122445859","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801384038,"gmtCreate":1627483064924,"gmtModify":1631886795532,"author":{"id":"3583745164603922","authorId":"3583745164603922","name":"Sean19","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583745164603922","authorIdStr":"3583745164603922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment pld","listText":"Comment pld","text":"Comment pld","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801384038","repostId":"1102922788","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102922788","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627479526,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1102922788?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 21:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Meeting Will Focus on Tapering Timeline.<blockquote>美联储会议将重点讨论缩减规模的时间表。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102922788","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Officials are looking to forge consensus on how and when to eventually reduce their asset purchases\n","content":"<p>Officials are looking to forge consensus on how and when to eventually reduce their asset purchases</p><p><blockquote>官员们正在寻求就如何以及何时最终减少资产购买达成共识</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b506b5e7aef3659e57731a13007a3078\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"859\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke at a Senate committee hearing earlier this month, has promised ample notice before reducing purchases of securities.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本月早些时候在参议院委员会听证会上发表讲话,承诺在减少证券购买之前会给予充分的通知。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve officials are set to resume deliberations Wednesday about how and when to begin paring their asset purchases amid an economic rebound clouded by supply-chain bottlenecks and rising Covid-19 cases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员将于周三恢复讨论如何以及何时开始削减资产购买,因为经济反弹受到供应链瓶颈和 Covid-19 病例增加的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank at the end of last year said it would continue to purchase $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities monthly until officials deemed they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of low unemployment and inflation reaching their 2% goal.</p><p><blockquote>中央银行在去年年底表示,将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券,直到官员们认为他们在实现低失业率和通胀率达到 2% 的目标方面取得了 “实质性的进一步进展”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will release its policy statement at 2 p.m. EDT. Most of the focus is likely to center on Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. Here’s what to watch:</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于美国东部时间下午2点发布政策声明。下午 2:30,杰罗姆-鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)主席的新闻发布会将成为大部分焦点:</blockquote></p><p> <b>Taper timing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>锥度定时</b></blockquote></p><p> Officials are likely to receive a formal staff briefing around when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them.</p><p><blockquote>官员们可能会收到一份正式的员工简报,内容涉及何时开始削减每月购买的 800 亿美元国债和 400 亿美元抵押贷款证券,以及如何快速减少或缩减这些证券。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed began buying large quantities of the securities in March 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a near-meltdown in financial markets. With the Fed’s short-term interest rate at zero, the purchases are designed to provide additional stimulus by holding down long-term interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于 2020 年 3 月开始购买大量证券,当时 Covid-19 大流行引发了金融市场近乎崩溃。由于美联储的短期利率为零,这些购买旨在通过压低长期利率来提供额外的刺激。</blockquote></p><p> Some officials are concerned that a burst of inflation this year from bottlenecks associated with reopening the economy will prove more durable than previously anticipated. These policy makers are eager to start the taper, in part because they and their colleagues have said they aren’t likely to consider raising interest rates from near zero until they are done tapering the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>一些官员担心,今年因经济重新开放相关的瓶颈而爆发的通胀将比之前预期的更持久。这些政策制定者急于开始缩减利率,部分原因是他们和他们的同事们表示,在缩减资产购买规模之前,他们不太可能考虑从接近于零的利率上调利率。</blockquote></p><p> Another camp thinks recent price pressures will subside and could leave the Fed in the same position that it faced for much of the past decade, in which global forces kept inflation below 2% even with historically low interest rates. They are worried that accelerating plans to wind down the asset purchases could raise questions among investors about the Fed’s commitment to achieving its economic goals.</p><p><blockquote>另一个阵营认为,最近的价格压力将会消退,并可能使美联储处于过去十年大部分时间所面临的同样境地,当时全球力量即使利率处于历史低位,也将通胀率保持在 2% 以下。他们担心,加速缩减资产购买计划可能会让投资者对美联储实现经济目标的承诺产生质疑。</blockquote></p><p> Because Mr. Powell has pledged to provide ample notice to financial markets before the Fed starts tapering to avoid catching investors by surprise, the central bank looks unlikely to start the process now or at its next meeting in September. Mr. Powell’s press conference will be heavily scrutinized for clues on how officials judge recent economic progress. In April, he said the Fed was “a long way from” its tapering goals, and he characterized the economy as “still a ways off” from them in June.</p><p><blockquote>由于鲍威尔承诺在美联储开始缩减规模之前向金融市场提供充分通知,以避免让投资者措手不及,因此美联储现在或9月份的下次会议上似乎不太可能启动这一进程。鲍威尔先生的新闻发布会将受到严格审查,以寻找官员们如何判断近期经济进展的线索。今年 4 月,他表示美联储 “距离 ”缩减规模的目标还有很长的路要走,他认为经济在 6 月份离这些目标 “还有很长的路要走”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Purchase pace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>采购速度</b></blockquote></p><p> Officials also must consider the pace of any reductions. Some officials have discussed concluding the purchases around October 2022 so they could lift rates soon thereafter if the recovery is stronger or inflation is higher than now anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>官员们还必须考虑任何削减的步伐。一些官员已讨论在 2022 年 10 月左右结束购买,以便如果经济复苏更强劲或通胀高于目前预期,他们可能会在此后不久加息。</blockquote></p><p> During a prior asset-purchase program that ended in 2014, the Fed shrank its purchases in modest, equal amounts over the course of 10 months. It then waited another 14 months before raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>在 2014 年结束的之前的资产购买计划中,美联储在 10 个月内适度、等量地缩减了购买规模。然后它又等了14个月才加息。</blockquote></p><p> Another tactical question centers on whether to reduce the pace of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities equally. Some officials have raised concerns about rising home prices and are pressing to stop purchases of mortgage bonds sooner.</p><p><blockquote>另一个战术性问题集中在是否同样放慢国债和抵押贷款支持证券的步伐上。一些官员对房价上涨表示担忧,并敦促尽快停止购买抵押贷款债券。</blockquote></p><p> But Mr. Powell and other officials have poured cold water on those concerns in recent weeks. They have said mortgage buying, by purchasing longer-dated assets, provides a way to more broadly stimulate the economy and isn’t focused squarely on housing markets.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔和其他官员最近几周对这些担忧泼了一盆冷水。他们表示,通过购买期限较长的资产,抵押贷款购买提供了一种更广泛地刺激经济的方式,并不完全关注房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> “If the housing market has you really worried, that’s an argument for just tapering everything sooner and faster,” said William English, a former senior Fed economist who is now a professor at the Yale School of Management.</p><p><blockquote>“前美联储高级经济学家、现任耶鲁大学管理学院教授威廉-英格利希(William English)说:”如果房地产市场真的让你担心,那么这就是一个更快更快地缩减一切规模的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀前景</b></blockquote></p><p> For a third straight month in June,inflation ran hotter than many economists had expected. The Labor Department’s consumer-price index increased 5.4% from a year ago, the highest 12-month rate since August 2008.</p><p><blockquote>6月份,通胀连续第三个月高于许多经济学家的预期。劳工部的消费者价格指数比一年前上涨了 5.4%,是自 2008 年 8 月以来的最高 12 个月涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Powell said two weeks ago that many of the elevated price pressures can still be traced to goods and services affected by supply-chain bottlenecks and other pandemic-driven upheaval. As a result, he said it would be too soon for the Fed to abandon its earlier expectation that prices will return to their 2% target on their own and to raise rates to cool down demand and reduce inflation faster.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔两周前表示,许多价格上涨的压力仍然可以追溯到受供应链瓶颈和其他疫情引发的动荡影响的商品和服务。因此,他表示,美联储现在放弃早些时候的预期,即价格将自行回到2%的目标,并加息以冷却需求并更快地降低通胀,还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But Mr. Powell could face questions over how long the central bank and its 12-member rate-setting committee feels it would take to revisit their projections. Price pressures in some sectors of the economy where inflation had been subdued over the past year, including residential rents, have picked in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔可能会面临美联储及其12名成员组成的利率制定委员会认为需要多长时间才能重新审视其预测的问题。近几个月来,包括住宅租金在内的一些经济领域的价格压力有所加剧,这些领域的通胀在过去一年中得到了抑制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Delta variant</b></p><p><blockquote><b>德尔塔变异毒株</b></blockquote></p><p> Mr. Powell is also likely to be pressed on how the recent increase in Covid-19 cases among unvaccinated populations could reshape the central bank’s growth forecasts for the rest of the year. While a return to shutdowns and other state-mandated restrictions on activity seem less likely than a year ago, increased hesitancy on the part of consumers to return to normal spending routines could complicate the economic outlook.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔先生还可能面临压力,即最近未接种疫苗人群中 Covid-19 病例的增加会如何重塑央行对今年剩余时间的增长预测。虽然恢复停工和其他国家强制的活动限制的可能性似乎比一年前小,但消费者对恢复正常消费日常越来越犹豫可能会使经济前景复杂化。</blockquote></p><p> Since Fed officials last met in June, government-bond prices have jumped, a sign that investors are less confident about long-term growth prospects and less worried about inflation.</p><p><blockquote>自美联储官员上次于 6 月份开会以来,政府债券价格大幅上涨,这表明投资者对长期增长前景的信心减少,对通胀的担忧也减少了。</blockquote></p><p> Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, climbed sharply earlier in the year, lifted by expectations that vaccinations and fiscal stimulus would spur an economic boom. After hitting a 13-month high of 1.75% at the end of March, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined—to 1.57% on June 16, after the Fed concluded its previous meeting, and to 1.24%, a five-month low, when the Fed’s meeting began on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>当债券价格下跌时,收益率会上升,但今年早些时候,由于疫苗接种和财政刺激将刺激经济繁荣的预期,收益率大幅攀升。10 年期国债收益率在 3 月底触及 1.75% 的 13 个月高点后有所下降--6 月 16 日美联储结束上次会议后降至 1.57%,周二美联储会议开始时降至 1.24%,创下五个月低点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Meeting Will Focus on Tapering Timeline.<blockquote>美联储会议将重点讨论缩减规模的时间表。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Meeting Will Focus on Tapering Timeline.<blockquote>美联储会议将重点讨论缩减规模的时间表。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-28 21:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Officials are looking to forge consensus on how and when to eventually reduce their asset purchases</p><p><blockquote>官员们正在寻求就如何以及何时最终减少资产购买达成共识</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b506b5e7aef3659e57731a13007a3078\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"859\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke at a Senate committee hearing earlier this month, has promised ample notice before reducing purchases of securities.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本月早些时候在参议院委员会听证会上发表讲话,承诺在减少证券购买之前会给予充分的通知。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve officials are set to resume deliberations Wednesday about how and when to begin paring their asset purchases amid an economic rebound clouded by supply-chain bottlenecks and rising Covid-19 cases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员将于周三恢复讨论如何以及何时开始削减资产购买,因为经济反弹受到供应链瓶颈和 Covid-19 病例增加的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank at the end of last year said it would continue to purchase $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities monthly until officials deemed they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of low unemployment and inflation reaching their 2% goal.</p><p><blockquote>中央银行在去年年底表示,将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券,直到官员们认为他们在实现低失业率和通胀率达到 2% 的目标方面取得了 “实质性的进一步进展”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will release its policy statement at 2 p.m. EDT. Most of the focus is likely to center on Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. Here’s what to watch:</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于美国东部时间下午2点发布政策声明。下午 2:30,杰罗姆-鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)主席的新闻发布会将成为大部分焦点:</blockquote></p><p> <b>Taper timing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>锥度定时</b></blockquote></p><p> Officials are likely to receive a formal staff briefing around when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them.</p><p><blockquote>官员们可能会收到一份正式的员工简报,内容涉及何时开始削减每月购买的 800 亿美元国债和 400 亿美元抵押贷款证券,以及如何快速减少或缩减这些证券。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed began buying large quantities of the securities in March 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a near-meltdown in financial markets. With the Fed’s short-term interest rate at zero, the purchases are designed to provide additional stimulus by holding down long-term interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于 2020 年 3 月开始购买大量证券,当时 Covid-19 大流行引发了金融市场近乎崩溃。由于美联储的短期利率为零,这些购买旨在通过压低长期利率来提供额外的刺激。</blockquote></p><p> Some officials are concerned that a burst of inflation this year from bottlenecks associated with reopening the economy will prove more durable than previously anticipated. These policy makers are eager to start the taper, in part because they and their colleagues have said they aren’t likely to consider raising interest rates from near zero until they are done tapering the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>一些官员担心,今年因经济重新开放相关的瓶颈而爆发的通胀将比之前预期的更持久。这些政策制定者急于开始缩减利率,部分原因是他们和他们的同事们表示,在缩减资产购买规模之前,他们不太可能考虑从接近于零的利率上调利率。</blockquote></p><p> Another camp thinks recent price pressures will subside and could leave the Fed in the same position that it faced for much of the past decade, in which global forces kept inflation below 2% even with historically low interest rates. They are worried that accelerating plans to wind down the asset purchases could raise questions among investors about the Fed’s commitment to achieving its economic goals.</p><p><blockquote>另一个阵营认为,最近的价格压力将会消退,并可能使美联储处于过去十年大部分时间所面临的同样境地,当时全球力量即使利率处于历史低位,也将通胀率保持在 2% 以下。他们担心,加速缩减资产购买计划可能会让投资者对美联储实现经济目标的承诺产生质疑。</blockquote></p><p> Because Mr. Powell has pledged to provide ample notice to financial markets before the Fed starts tapering to avoid catching investors by surprise, the central bank looks unlikely to start the process now or at its next meeting in September. Mr. Powell’s press conference will be heavily scrutinized for clues on how officials judge recent economic progress. In April, he said the Fed was “a long way from” its tapering goals, and he characterized the economy as “still a ways off” from them in June.</p><p><blockquote>由于鲍威尔承诺在美联储开始缩减规模之前向金融市场提供充分通知,以避免让投资者措手不及,因此美联储现在或9月份的下次会议上似乎不太可能启动这一进程。鲍威尔先生的新闻发布会将受到严格审查,以寻找官员们如何判断近期经济进展的线索。今年 4 月,他表示美联储 “距离 ”缩减规模的目标还有很长的路要走,他认为经济在 6 月份离这些目标 “还有很长的路要走”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Purchase pace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>采购速度</b></blockquote></p><p> Officials also must consider the pace of any reductions. Some officials have discussed concluding the purchases around October 2022 so they could lift rates soon thereafter if the recovery is stronger or inflation is higher than now anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>官员们还必须考虑任何削减的步伐。一些官员已讨论在 2022 年 10 月左右结束购买,以便如果经济复苏更强劲或通胀高于目前预期,他们可能会在此后不久加息。</blockquote></p><p> During a prior asset-purchase program that ended in 2014, the Fed shrank its purchases in modest, equal amounts over the course of 10 months. It then waited another 14 months before raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>在 2014 年结束的之前的资产购买计划中,美联储在 10 个月内适度、等量地缩减了购买规模。然后它又等了14个月才加息。</blockquote></p><p> Another tactical question centers on whether to reduce the pace of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities equally. Some officials have raised concerns about rising home prices and are pressing to stop purchases of mortgage bonds sooner.</p><p><blockquote>另一个战术性问题集中在是否同样放慢国债和抵押贷款支持证券的步伐上。一些官员对房价上涨表示担忧,并敦促尽快停止购买抵押贷款债券。</blockquote></p><p> But Mr. Powell and other officials have poured cold water on those concerns in recent weeks. They have said mortgage buying, by purchasing longer-dated assets, provides a way to more broadly stimulate the economy and isn’t focused squarely on housing markets.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔和其他官员最近几周对这些担忧泼了一盆冷水。他们表示,通过购买期限较长的资产,抵押贷款购买提供了一种更广泛地刺激经济的方式,并不完全关注房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> “If the housing market has you really worried, that’s an argument for just tapering everything sooner and faster,” said William English, a former senior Fed economist who is now a professor at the Yale School of Management.</p><p><blockquote>“前美联储高级经济学家、现任耶鲁大学管理学院教授威廉-英格利希(William English)说:”如果房地产市场真的让你担心,那么这就是一个更快更快地缩减一切规模的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀前景</b></blockquote></p><p> For a third straight month in June,inflation ran hotter than many economists had expected. The Labor Department’s consumer-price index increased 5.4% from a year ago, the highest 12-month rate since August 2008.</p><p><blockquote>6月份,通胀连续第三个月高于许多经济学家的预期。劳工部的消费者价格指数比一年前上涨了 5.4%,是自 2008 年 8 月以来的最高 12 个月涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Powell said two weeks ago that many of the elevated price pressures can still be traced to goods and services affected by supply-chain bottlenecks and other pandemic-driven upheaval. As a result, he said it would be too soon for the Fed to abandon its earlier expectation that prices will return to their 2% target on their own and to raise rates to cool down demand and reduce inflation faster.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔两周前表示,许多价格上涨的压力仍然可以追溯到受供应链瓶颈和其他疫情引发的动荡影响的商品和服务。因此,他表示,美联储现在放弃早些时候的预期,即价格将自行回到2%的目标,并加息以冷却需求并更快地降低通胀,还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But Mr. Powell could face questions over how long the central bank and its 12-member rate-setting committee feels it would take to revisit their projections. Price pressures in some sectors of the economy where inflation had been subdued over the past year, including residential rents, have picked in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔可能会面临美联储及其12名成员组成的利率制定委员会认为需要多长时间才能重新审视其预测的问题。近几个月来,包括住宅租金在内的一些经济领域的价格压力有所加剧,这些领域的通胀在过去一年中得到了抑制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Delta variant</b></p><p><blockquote><b>德尔塔变异毒株</b></blockquote></p><p> Mr. Powell is also likely to be pressed on how the recent increase in Covid-19 cases among unvaccinated populations could reshape the central bank’s growth forecasts for the rest of the year. While a return to shutdowns and other state-mandated restrictions on activity seem less likely than a year ago, increased hesitancy on the part of consumers to return to normal spending routines could complicate the economic outlook.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔先生还可能面临压力,即最近未接种疫苗人群中 Covid-19 病例的增加会如何重塑央行对今年剩余时间的增长预测。虽然恢复停工和其他国家强制的活动限制的可能性似乎比一年前小,但消费者对恢复正常消费日常越来越犹豫可能会使经济前景复杂化。</blockquote></p><p> Since Fed officials last met in June, government-bond prices have jumped, a sign that investors are less confident about long-term growth prospects and less worried about inflation.</p><p><blockquote>自美联储官员上次于 6 月份开会以来,政府债券价格大幅上涨,这表明投资者对长期增长前景的信心减少,对通胀的担忧也减少了。</blockquote></p><p> Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, climbed sharply earlier in the year, lifted by expectations that vaccinations and fiscal stimulus would spur an economic boom. After hitting a 13-month high of 1.75% at the end of March, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined—to 1.57% on June 16, after the Fed concluded its previous meeting, and to 1.24%, a five-month low, when the Fed’s meeting began on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>当债券价格下跌时,收益率会上升,但今年早些时候,由于疫苗接种和财政刺激将刺激经济繁荣的预期,收益率大幅攀升。10 年期国债收益率在 3 月底触及 1.75% 的 13 个月高点后有所下降--6 月 16 日美联储结束上次会议后降至 1.57%,周二美联储会议开始时降至 1.24%,创下五个月低点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-will-focus-on-tapering-timeline-11627464602?mod=hp_lead_pos2\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-will-focus-on-tapering-timeline-11627464602?mod=hp_lead_pos2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102922788","content_text":"Officials are looking to forge consensus on how and when to eventually reduce their asset purchases\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke at a Senate committee hearing earlier this month, has promised ample notice before reducing purchases of securities.\nFederal Reserve officials are set to resume deliberations Wednesday about how and when to begin paring their asset purchases amid an economic rebound clouded by supply-chain bottlenecks and rising Covid-19 cases.\nThe central bank at the end of last year said it would continue to purchase $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities monthly until officials deemed they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of low unemployment and inflation reaching their 2% goal.\nThe Fed will release its policy statement at 2 p.m. EDT. Most of the focus is likely to center on Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. Here’s what to watch:\nTaper timing\nOfficials are likely to receive a formal staff briefing around when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them.\nThe Fed began buying large quantities of the securities in March 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a near-meltdown in financial markets. With the Fed’s short-term interest rate at zero, the purchases are designed to provide additional stimulus by holding down long-term interest rates.\nSome officials are concerned that a burst of inflation this year from bottlenecks associated with reopening the economy will prove more durable than previously anticipated. These policy makers are eager to start the taper, in part because they and their colleagues have said they aren’t likely to consider raising interest rates from near zero until they are done tapering the asset purchases.\nAnother camp thinks recent price pressures will subside and could leave the Fed in the same position that it faced for much of the past decade, in which global forces kept inflation below 2% even with historically low interest rates. They are worried that accelerating plans to wind down the asset purchases could raise questions among investors about the Fed’s commitment to achieving its economic goals.\nBecause Mr. Powell has pledged to provide ample notice to financial markets before the Fed starts tapering to avoid catching investors by surprise, the central bank looks unlikely to start the process now or at its next meeting in September. Mr. Powell’s press conference will be heavily scrutinized for clues on how officials judge recent economic progress. In April, he said the Fed was “a long way from” its tapering goals, and he characterized the economy as “still a ways off” from them in June.\nPurchase pace\nOfficials also must consider the pace of any reductions. Some officials have discussed concluding the purchases around October 2022 so they could lift rates soon thereafter if the recovery is stronger or inflation is higher than now anticipated.\nDuring a prior asset-purchase program that ended in 2014, the Fed shrank its purchases in modest, equal amounts over the course of 10 months. It then waited another 14 months before raising interest rates.\nAnother tactical question centers on whether to reduce the pace of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities equally. Some officials have raised concerns about rising home prices and are pressing to stop purchases of mortgage bonds sooner.\nBut Mr. Powell and other officials have poured cold water on those concerns in recent weeks. They have said mortgage buying, by purchasing longer-dated assets, provides a way to more broadly stimulate the economy and isn’t focused squarely on housing markets.\n“If the housing market has you really worried, that’s an argument for just tapering everything sooner and faster,” said William English, a former senior Fed economist who is now a professor at the Yale School of Management.\nInflation outlook\nFor a third straight month in June,inflation ran hotter than many economists had expected. The Labor Department’s consumer-price index increased 5.4% from a year ago, the highest 12-month rate since August 2008.\nMr. Powell said two weeks ago that many of the elevated price pressures can still be traced to goods and services affected by supply-chain bottlenecks and other pandemic-driven upheaval. As a result, he said it would be too soon for the Fed to abandon its earlier expectation that prices will return to their 2% target on their own and to raise rates to cool down demand and reduce inflation faster.\nBut Mr. Powell could face questions over how long the central bank and its 12-member rate-setting committee feels it would take to revisit their projections. Price pressures in some sectors of the economy where inflation had been subdued over the past year, including residential rents, have picked in recent months.\nDelta variant\nMr. Powell is also likely to be pressed on how the recent increase in Covid-19 cases among unvaccinated populations could reshape the central bank’s growth forecasts for the rest of the year. While a return to shutdowns and other state-mandated restrictions on activity seem less likely than a year ago, increased hesitancy on the part of consumers to return to normal spending routines could complicate the economic outlook.\nSince Fed officials last met in June, government-bond prices have jumped, a sign that investors are less confident about long-term growth prospects and less worried about inflation.\nYields, which rise when bond prices fall, climbed sharply earlier in the year, lifted by expectations that vaccinations and fiscal stimulus would spur an economic boom. After hitting a 13-month high of 1.75% at the end of March, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined—to 1.57% on June 16, after the Fed concluded its previous meeting, and to 1.24%, a five-month low, when the Fed’s meeting began on Tuesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800539544,"gmtCreate":1627307751788,"gmtModify":1631886795547,"author":{"id":"3583745164603922","authorId":"3583745164603922","name":"Sean19","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583745164603922","authorIdStr":"3583745164603922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800539544","repostId":"1151724613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151724613","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627292512,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151724613?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.<blockquote>特斯拉今天公布收益。这是最重要的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151724613","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.\nThe ","content":"<p>Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉将于周一公布第二季度收益。准备好一份非常复杂的报告。</blockquote></p><p> The EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday, July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车先驱将于 7 月 26 日星期一收盘后发布报告。据 FactSet 称,华尔街希望特斯拉(股票代码:TSLA)在 115 亿美元的销售额中报告每股收益约 94 美分。超出分析师预期对于任何股票在财报后交易中保持稳定来说都很重要,几乎是必需的。特斯拉也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> There will be a lot of moving parts, however, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk.</p><p><blockquote>不过,对于世界上最有价值的汽车公司及其打破常规的首席执行官埃隆-马斯克(Elon Musk)来说,将会有很多移动部件,甚至比平时还要多。</blockquote></p><p> Factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings include the global semiconductor shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.</p><p><blockquote>影响利润的因素包括全球半导体短缺、汽车定价、汽车毛利率以及特斯拉电池存储业务的盈利水平。然而,最终,投资者会希望看到营业利润创纪录——无论如何发生。这可能会打破股价近期的区间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d908f359ce3333ed256684e007ff74d0\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布 2020 年第三季度营业利润超过 8 亿美元,在接下来的三个月内,该股股价翻了一番多,达到 860 美元左右。但由于营业利润增长在随后几个季度基本暂停,股价已从约 860 美元跌至最近的 640 美元左右。利润停滞也意味着库存停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered more than 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉多头来说,好消息是华尔街预计将创下新纪录:在强劲交付的推动下,第二季度营业利润预计将达到 8.35 亿美元。2021年第二季度标志着特斯拉首次在单季度交付超过20万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> After earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla beat earnings estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>财报消化完毕后,多头和空头之间关于财报质量的争论应该会层出不穷。例如,特斯拉创造销售额的一种方式是出售监管积分——它通过生产超过其公平份额的电动汽车来获得这些积分。该公司第一季度信贷销售额为 5.18 亿美元,帮助特斯拉超出盈利预期。关于信用销售额的 “正常 ”数量以及这些销售额何时会枯竭,一直存在争议。最终,多头和空头都预计其他汽车制造商将出售自己的电动汽车,从而切断特斯拉的收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the issue of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.</p><p><blockquote>还有比特币的问题。特斯拉承认其持有的比特币在第一季度略有增加,但这种加密货币的价格自 4 月份的峰值以来已经下跌了大约一半。这意味着有可能出现小幅亏损。投资者的反应谁也说不准,但不要指望特斯拉会抛售其比特币头寸。马斯克继续表示,当比特币矿业使用更可持续的电力时,他的公司将以加密货币进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its charging network to other EVs down the road.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还想知道特斯拉在德国的新工厂和德克萨斯州奥斯汀的工厂何时开始交付汽车。奥斯汀工厂将生产特斯拉的 Cybertruck。特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的进步--该公司最近开始以订阅的形式销售其驾驶辅助软件--以及该公司能从其充电网络中赚多少钱,也可能会有人质疑。马斯克本周在推特上表示,特斯拉将向未来的其他电动汽车开放其充电网络。</blockquote></p><p> Those topics and more should be discussed on the earnings conference call scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>这些话题以及更多话题应该在定于下午 5:30 举行的财报电话会议上讨论。美国东部时间周一。今年迄今为止,特斯拉股价已下跌约 9%,落后于标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别 17% 和 15% 的可比涨幅。尽管如此,特斯拉股价仍表现强劲,过去 12 个月上涨了约 112%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.<blockquote>特斯拉今天公布收益。这是最重要的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.<blockquote>特斯拉今天公布收益。这是最重要的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 17:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉将于周一公布第二季度收益。准备好一份非常复杂的报告。</blockquote></p><p> The EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday, July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车先驱将于 7 月 26 日星期一收盘后发布报告。据 FactSet 称,华尔街希望特斯拉(股票代码:TSLA)在 115 亿美元的销售额中报告每股收益约 94 美分。超出分析师预期对于任何股票在财报后交易中保持稳定来说都很重要,几乎是必需的。特斯拉也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> There will be a lot of moving parts, however, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk.</p><p><blockquote>不过,对于世界上最有价值的汽车公司及其打破常规的首席执行官埃隆-马斯克(Elon Musk)来说,将会有很多移动部件,甚至比平时还要多。</blockquote></p><p> Factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings include the global semiconductor shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.</p><p><blockquote>影响利润的因素包括全球半导体短缺、汽车定价、汽车毛利率以及特斯拉电池存储业务的盈利水平。然而,最终,投资者会希望看到营业利润创纪录——无论如何发生。这可能会打破股价近期的区间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d908f359ce3333ed256684e007ff74d0\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布 2020 年第三季度营业利润超过 8 亿美元,在接下来的三个月内,该股股价翻了一番多,达到 860 美元左右。但由于营业利润增长在随后几个季度基本暂停,股价已从约 860 美元跌至最近的 640 美元左右。利润停滞也意味着库存停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered more than 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉多头来说,好消息是华尔街预计将创下新纪录:在强劲交付的推动下,第二季度营业利润预计将达到 8.35 亿美元。2021年第二季度标志着特斯拉首次在单季度交付超过20万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> After earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla beat earnings estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>财报消化完毕后,多头和空头之间关于财报质量的争论应该会层出不穷。例如,特斯拉创造销售额的一种方式是出售监管积分——它通过生产超过其公平份额的电动汽车来获得这些积分。该公司第一季度信贷销售额为 5.18 亿美元,帮助特斯拉超出盈利预期。关于信用销售额的 “正常 ”数量以及这些销售额何时会枯竭,一直存在争议。最终,多头和空头都预计其他汽车制造商将出售自己的电动汽车,从而切断特斯拉的收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the issue of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.</p><p><blockquote>还有比特币的问题。特斯拉承认其持有的比特币在第一季度略有增加,但这种加密货币的价格自 4 月份的峰值以来已经下跌了大约一半。这意味着有可能出现小幅亏损。投资者的反应谁也说不准,但不要指望特斯拉会抛售其比特币头寸。马斯克继续表示,当比特币矿业使用更可持续的电力时,他的公司将以加密货币进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its charging network to other EVs down the road.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还想知道特斯拉在德国的新工厂和德克萨斯州奥斯汀的工厂何时开始交付汽车。奥斯汀工厂将生产特斯拉的 Cybertruck。特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的进步--该公司最近开始以订阅的形式销售其驾驶辅助软件--以及该公司能从其充电网络中赚多少钱,也可能会有人质疑。马斯克本周在推特上表示,特斯拉将向未来的其他电动汽车开放其充电网络。</blockquote></p><p> Those topics and more should be discussed on the earnings conference call scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>这些话题以及更多话题应该在定于下午 5:30 举行的财报电话会议上讨论。美国东部时间周一。今年迄今为止,特斯拉股价已下跌约 9%,落后于标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别 17% 和 15% 的可比涨幅。尽管如此,特斯拉股价仍表现强劲,过去 12 个月上涨了约 112%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151724613","content_text":"Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.\nThe EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday, July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.\nThere will be a lot of moving parts, however, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk.\nFactors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings include the global semiconductor shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.\n\nTesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.\nThe good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered more than 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter.\nAfter earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla beat earnings estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.\nThere is also the issue of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.\nInvestors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its charging network to other EVs down the road.\nThose topics and more should be discussed on the earnings conference call scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178145843,"gmtCreate":1626793939182,"gmtModify":1631886795562,"author":{"id":"3583745164603922","authorId":"3583745164603922","name":"Sean19","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583745164603922","authorIdStr":"3583745164603922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178145843","repostId":"1109861258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1109861258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation<blockquote>收益率暴跌背后:这是一个增长故事,而不是对通胀的反思</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是,隔夜交易中,最近的国债反弹最初试图小幅逆转,但遭到了进一步的购买兴趣。最终结果是 10 年期国债收益率略有下降,使基准利率达到 2 月中旬以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p><p><blockquote>距离下一个技术目标门槛还有 5 个基点,我们将关注风险资产与美国利率之间的相互作用,因为受 delta 启发的重新定价仍在继续。我们认识到,最近这一举措的严重性导致动量措施捉襟见肘,这意味着增量收益将更加难以实现。这并不是说目前利率下限很明显,而是说应该预计反弹的步伐将会放缓。<b>围绕 10 年期国债收益率可能跌破 1.0% 的可能性有很多讨论;这种可能性是短暂的,但不是不可能的。</b>然而,更直接的是衡量病例数上升在多大程度上会导致收益率进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p><p><blockquote><b>如果得出这一举措完全是恢复新冠肺炎限制所带来的经济风险的结论,那就过于简单化了。事实上,我们认为美联储最近减少鸽派的努力夸大了这次反弹。</b>政策制定者正处于会前无线电沉默时期;这就消除了对美联储应对新出现的大流行病风险发表任何官方评论的可能性。而且,<b>这使得投资者在以下假设下操作:1)缩减加息规模仍在按计划进行;2)最早明年可能加息;3)美联储在通胀问题上的“即使不是暂时性的,也会采取行动”立场仍然有效。</b>. 虽然这些肯定在某种程度上仍然成立,但鉴于投资者对最近 covid 事态发展的反应,隐含的承诺可能正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p><p><blockquote>今早的头条新闻得出结论:“市场不再担心通货膨胀”;一个表面上与美国利率价格走势一致的概念没有抓住要点。<b>10 年盈亏平衡点仍在 225 个基点,距离 6 月中旬的低点还有一段距离。</b>此外,供应驱动型通胀上升的作用是对消费征税,而不是健康实体经济的反映,这给经济复苏带来了下行风险。当结合对上半年将代表反弹顶峰的担忧时,直观地可以看出,市场已经进入了周期的下一阶段——即重新调整增长预期,以反映新常态;群体免疫将被证明是难以捉摸的,变异风险(delta和其他)成为一个持续的问题。<b>快速浏览一下接近 -100 个基点的实际收益率,就会强化这样的解读:这是一个增长故事,而不是对通货膨胀的集体反思。</b></blockquote></p><p> There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p><p><blockquote>价格走势还有另一个值得强调的细微差别。具体来说,到目前为止,随着 10 年代和 30 年代跑赢大盘,这一举动值得怀疑。由于货币政策预期保持不变,曲线的前端受益程度较小。<b>然而,今天上午,我们开始看到 5 年期板块领涨。如果我们看到从长期增长故事向进一步抵消美联储紧缩政策的过渡,这最终可能会缓和 10 年代和 30 年代的涨幅。</b>这并不意味着联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)最终使政策利率正常化的空间变小,是在大流行病卷土重来的情况下抛售久期的令人信服的理由。相反,人们相信,鉴于全球经济复苏面临新的阻力,货币政策制定者不会急于应对小规模的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有其他原因、<b>这将有助于判断下周联邦公开市场委员会会议和鲍威尔新闻发布会的预期。</b>请注意,鉴于下周公布的第二季度实际国内生产总值(Q2)数据的一致预期为+8.1%,毫无疑问,上半年将出现强劲反弹,投资者已转向复苏的下一阶段,而复苏的下一阶段存在更大的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p><p><blockquote>如果实际收益率的变动表明人们对反弹的担忧与日俱增;10年期实际利率达到1月初以来的最低水平,距离周期低点-112.4个基点不远。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于周四价值 160 亿美元的新一期 10 年期 TIPS 拍卖临近,雷亚尔的下跌更加值得注意。目前的估值表明,人们不仅越来越担心德尔塔变异毒株在国内的蔓延,而且更重要的是,对海外的蔓延也越来越担心。尽管曾经有一段时间,美国的利率格局完全由国内基本面决定,但经济和市场的全球化现在使国债收益率成为全球背景的函数。这有助于解释令人印象深刻的一轮看涨情绪和对 USTs 竞购的持久性,尽管数据总体上继续表现良好。我们想起了一句久经考验的格言,即阻力很难在第三次尝试中站稳脚跟,并将在本周剩余时间内监测 10 年期实际收益率的 -112 个基点线。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation<blockquote>收益率暴跌背后:这是一个增长故事,而不是对通胀的反思</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation<blockquote>收益率暴跌背后:这是一个增长故事,而不是对通胀的反思</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 23:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是,隔夜交易中,最近的国债反弹最初试图小幅逆转,但遭到了进一步的购买兴趣。最终结果是 10 年期国债收益率略有下降,使基准利率达到 2 月中旬以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p><p><blockquote>距离下一个技术目标门槛还有 5 个基点,我们将关注风险资产与美国利率之间的相互作用,因为受 delta 启发的重新定价仍在继续。我们认识到,最近这一举措的严重性导致动量措施捉襟见肘,这意味着增量收益将更加难以实现。这并不是说目前利率下限很明显,而是说应该预计反弹的步伐将会放缓。<b>围绕 10 年期国债收益率可能跌破 1.0% 的可能性有很多讨论;这种可能性是短暂的,但不是不可能的。</b>然而,更直接的是衡量病例数上升在多大程度上会导致收益率进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p><p><blockquote><b>如果得出这一举措完全是恢复新冠肺炎限制所带来的经济风险的结论,那就过于简单化了。事实上,我们认为美联储最近减少鸽派的努力夸大了这次反弹。</b>政策制定者正处于会前无线电沉默时期;这就消除了对美联储应对新出现的大流行病风险发表任何官方评论的可能性。而且,<b>这使得投资者在以下假设下操作:1)缩减加息规模仍在按计划进行;2)最早明年可能加息;3)美联储在通胀问题上的“即使不是暂时性的,也会采取行动”立场仍然有效。</b>. 虽然这些肯定在某种程度上仍然成立,但鉴于投资者对最近 covid 事态发展的反应,隐含的承诺可能正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p><p><blockquote>今早的头条新闻得出结论:“市场不再担心通货膨胀”;一个表面上与美国利率价格走势一致的概念没有抓住要点。<b>10 年盈亏平衡点仍在 225 个基点,距离 6 月中旬的低点还有一段距离。</b>此外,供应驱动型通胀上升的作用是对消费征税,而不是健康实体经济的反映,这给经济复苏带来了下行风险。当结合对上半年将代表反弹顶峰的担忧时,直观地可以看出,市场已经进入了周期的下一阶段——即重新调整增长预期,以反映新常态;群体免疫将被证明是难以捉摸的,变异风险(delta和其他)成为一个持续的问题。<b>快速浏览一下接近 -100 个基点的实际收益率,就会强化这样的解读:这是一个增长故事,而不是对通货膨胀的集体反思。</b></blockquote></p><p> There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p><p><blockquote>价格走势还有另一个值得强调的细微差别。具体来说,到目前为止,随着 10 年代和 30 年代跑赢大盘,这一举动值得怀疑。由于货币政策预期保持不变,曲线的前端受益程度较小。<b>然而,今天上午,我们开始看到 5 年期板块领涨。如果我们看到从长期增长故事向进一步抵消美联储紧缩政策的过渡,这最终可能会缓和 10 年代和 30 年代的涨幅。</b>这并不意味着联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)最终使政策利率正常化的空间变小,是在大流行病卷土重来的情况下抛售久期的令人信服的理由。相反,人们相信,鉴于全球经济复苏面临新的阻力,货币政策制定者不会急于应对小规模的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有其他原因、<b>这将有助于判断下周联邦公开市场委员会会议和鲍威尔新闻发布会的预期。</b>请注意,鉴于下周公布的第二季度实际国内生产总值(Q2)数据的一致预期为+8.1%,毫无疑问,上半年将出现强劲反弹,投资者已转向复苏的下一阶段,而复苏的下一阶段存在更大的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p><p><blockquote>如果实际收益率的变动表明人们对反弹的担忧与日俱增;10年期实际利率达到1月初以来的最低水平,距离周期低点-112.4个基点不远。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于周四价值 160 亿美元的新一期 10 年期 TIPS 拍卖临近,雷亚尔的下跌更加值得注意。目前的估值表明,人们不仅越来越担心德尔塔变异毒株在国内的蔓延,而且更重要的是,对海外的蔓延也越来越担心。尽管曾经有一段时间,美国的利率格局完全由国内基本面决定,但经济和市场的全球化现在使国债收益率成为全球背景的函数。这有助于解释令人印象深刻的一轮看涨情绪和对 USTs 竞购的持久性,尽管数据总体上继续表现良好。我们想起了一句久经考验的格言,即阻力很难在第三次尝试中站稳脚跟,并将在本周剩余时间内监测 10 年期实际收益率的 -112 个基点线。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145080611,"gmtCreate":1626183257633,"gmtModify":1631886795572,"author":{"id":"3583745164603922","authorId":"3583745164603922","name":"Sean19","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583745164603922","authorIdStr":"3583745164603922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comments","listText":"Like and comments","text":"Like and comments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145080611","repostId":"2151569608","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146719544,"gmtCreate":1626099097188,"gmtModify":1631886795580,"author":{"id":"3583745164603922","authorId":"3583745164603922","name":"Sean19","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583745164603922","authorIdStr":"3583745164603922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146719544","repostId":"1128533375","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128533375","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626098621,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1128533375?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 22:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPI Energy stock jumps 17% on launching next generation electric pickup truck EF1-T<blockquote>SPI Energy 推出下一代电动皮卡 EF1-T,股价上涨 17%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128533375","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"SPI Energy stock jumps 17% on announcing the launch of next-generation electric pickup truck, EF1-T ","content":"<p><ul> <li>SPI Energy stock jumps 17% on announcing the launch of next-generation electric pickup truck, EF1-T by its wholly owned EdisonFuture, Inc. and PhoenixMotor Inc. subsidiary.</li> <li>The EF1-T standard model comes equipped with total power of 350 kilowatts, or 470 horsepower, while EdisonFuture's top of the line \"Super\" model offers 600kW, or 816HP.</li> <li>\"Our vision for EdisionFuture and Phoenix Motorcars is to be leaders in sustainable transportation with focus on energy efficiency and innovative design,\" stated Mr. Xiaofeng Peng, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer of SPI Energy. \"We have already filed multiple design and technology patents in the US related to the EF1-T and look forward to introducing this game-changing vehicle to the market in the coming months.\"</li> <li>Approximately 2.9M pickup trucks were sold in the US in 2020, +20% of the entire US auto market.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd67d49b5a0a872ac8d4bf5ef7788a7\" tg-width=\"1297\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>SPI Energy 宣布其全资子公司 EdisonFuture, Inc. 和 PhoenixMotor Inc. 推出下一代电动皮卡 EF1-T,股价上涨 17%。</li><li>EF1-T 标准型号的总功率为 350 千瓦(即 470 马力),而 EdisonFuture 的顶级“超级”型号则提供 600 千瓦(即 816 马力)。</li><li>SPI Energy 董事长兼首席执行官彭晓峰先生表示:“我们对 EdisionFuture 和凤凰汽车的愿景是成为可持续交通领域的领导者,重点关注能源效率和创新设计。”“我们已经在美国申请了与 EF1-T 相关的多项设计和技术专利,并期待在未来几个月内向市场推出这款改变游戏规则的车辆。”</li><li>2020年,美国售出约290万辆皮卡,占整个美国汽车市场的20%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPI Energy stock jumps 17% on launching next generation electric pickup truck EF1-T<blockquote>SPI Energy 推出下一代电动皮卡 EF1-T,股价上涨 17%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPI Energy stock jumps 17% on launching next generation electric pickup truck EF1-T<blockquote>SPI Energy 推出下一代电动皮卡 EF1-T,股价上涨 17%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-12 22:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul> <li>SPI Energy stock jumps 17% on announcing the launch of next-generation electric pickup truck, EF1-T by its wholly owned EdisonFuture, Inc. and PhoenixMotor Inc. subsidiary.</li> <li>The EF1-T standard model comes equipped with total power of 350 kilowatts, or 470 horsepower, while EdisonFuture's top of the line \"Super\" model offers 600kW, or 816HP.</li> <li>\"Our vision for EdisionFuture and Phoenix Motorcars is to be leaders in sustainable transportation with focus on energy efficiency and innovative design,\" stated Mr. Xiaofeng Peng, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer of SPI Energy. \"We have already filed multiple design and technology patents in the US related to the EF1-T and look forward to introducing this game-changing vehicle to the market in the coming months.\"</li> <li>Approximately 2.9M pickup trucks were sold in the US in 2020, +20% of the entire US auto market.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd67d49b5a0a872ac8d4bf5ef7788a7\" tg-width=\"1297\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>SPI Energy 宣布其全资子公司 EdisonFuture, Inc. 和 PhoenixMotor Inc. 推出下一代电动皮卡 EF1-T,股价上涨 17%。</li><li>EF1-T 标准型号的总功率为 350 千瓦(即 470 马力),而 EdisonFuture 的顶级“超级”型号则提供 600 千瓦(即 816 马力)。</li><li>SPI Energy 董事长兼首席执行官彭晓峰先生表示:“我们对 EdisionFuture 和凤凰汽车的愿景是成为可持续交通领域的领导者,重点关注能源效率和创新设计。”“我们已经在美国申请了与 EF1-T 相关的多项设计和技术专利,并期待在未来几个月内向市场推出这款改变游戏规则的车辆。”</li><li>2020年,美国售出约290万辆皮卡,占整个美国汽车市场的20%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128533375","content_text":"SPI Energy stock jumps 17% on announcing the launch of next-generation electric pickup truck, EF1-T by its wholly owned EdisonFuture, Inc. and PhoenixMotor Inc. subsidiary.\nThe EF1-T standard model comes equipped with total power of 350 kilowatts, or 470 horsepower, while EdisonFuture's top of the line \"Super\" model offers 600kW, or 816HP.\n\"Our vision for EdisionFuture and Phoenix Motorcars is to be leaders in sustainable transportation with focus on energy efficiency and innovative design,\" stated Mr. Xiaofeng Peng, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer of SPI Energy. \"We have already filed multiple design and technology patents in the US related to the EF1-T and look forward to introducing this game-changing vehicle to the market in the coming months.\"\nApproximately 2.9M pickup trucks were sold in the US in 2020, +20% of the entire US auto market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148789070,"gmtCreate":1626017160590,"gmtModify":1631886795594,"author":{"id":"3583745164603922","authorId":"3583745164603922","name":"Sean19","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583745164603922","authorIdStr":"3583745164603922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148789070","repostId":"1112201050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112201050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625966101,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112201050?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易远未结束。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112201050","media":"Barrons","summary":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de","content":"<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站(股票代码:GME)、黑莓(BB),甚至百视达的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时,它们何时会再次坠毁的时间已经在流逝。会是几个小时、几天还是几周?</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经过去半年了,核心 “备忘录股票 ”的交易价格仍然处于研究这些股票多年的人认为离谱的水平。Clover Health Investments (CLOV) 和 Newegg Commerce (NEGG) 等新名称最近出现在留言板上,它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易员--长期以来被嘲笑为 “哑巴钱 ”--的集体努力成功地让股市飙升,并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型的迹象,也没有表现出足以证明其估值的利润,但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱,并警告称其关键的网络安全部门将达到收入指导的低端;消息传出后,该股下跌,但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大型经纪商的交易量较 2 月份的峰值略有下降,但仍高于疫情爆发前的两到三倍。数量惊人的这种活动发生在散户交易者青睐的股票中。例如,AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6 月份的日均交易额达到 131 亿美元,超过了苹果(AAPL)的 95 亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的 103 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退,大多数新交易者表示,他们仍然致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中,58%的日内交易者表示,他们计划在未来进行更多的交易,只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉捏酸面团面包;交易者只会变得越来越饥饿。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种食欲,就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。目前,下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“美国海军电子技术员布兰登-卢切克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的一封电子邮件中写道:”我看到'逢低买入'的情绪一刻也没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票飙升是由散户投资者交易的增加推动的。2020年,在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户,超过1000万人开设了新账户。这一记录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露,在今年不到一半的时间里,经纪商已经增加了超过 1000 万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这种现象的推车,也是马。他们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的,然后这一行动推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在 1 月底和 2 月初下载了投资应用程序,只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现,15%的现有交易者在2020年后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>激增中最突出的参与者是 Robinhood,该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了 550 万个资金账户。但它并不孤单。例如,富达宣布,第一季度吸引了 160 万 35 岁以下的新客户,比去年同期增长了 223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在 Robinhood 零佣金模式的压力下,所有主要经纪商都在 2019 年将佣金降至零。这为新客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲置现金进行交易,但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在套现。富达希望在投资者获得驾照之前就吸引他们,允许年仅 13 岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood 正在乘势而上进行首次公开募股,分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的 10 倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与他们的老同行不同。E*Trade 交易主管克里斯-拉金(Chris Larkin)说,多年来,“ETF 一直备受青睐”,E*Trade 现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有。但挑选个股显然是 “2021 年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是,随着世界各地的投资者押注疫情复苏并避免疲软的债券收益率,股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但 ETF 不像股票那样点亮留言板。这并不是说顶级公司的单行道。游戏驿站二月份确实下跌,华尔街享受了幸灾乐祸的时刻。它并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>“盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫-索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道:”就像蝉一样,备忘录交易者在表面上隐匿了几个月后又重新活跃起来。索斯尼克认为,模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反,因为随着势头的变化,它们的粉丝会从一种货币转向另一种货币。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“他写道:”我不认为,在比特币和其他加密货币大幅回调后,备忘录股票卷土重来完全是巧合。</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为备忘录股票是一个 “独立的板块”,他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上,华尔街对备忘录股票革命的反应一直是孤立专业人士认为不理性的市场部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票,分析师也在放弃报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样把零售大军赶走,也不能指望它们在未来 17 年内消失。股票交易已经发生了永久性的变化。今年,零售活动占股本量的 24%,高于 2019 年的 15%。新信条的追随者不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚法学院(Columbia Law School)专门研究证券市场的教授约书亚-米茨(Joshua Mitts)说:”这实际上反映了我们所看到的趋势的逆转,即与个别公司的接触越来越少。“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她所投资的公司的距离,而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>— Matt Kohrs,26 岁,每天在 YouTube 上直播股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早早加入的人的生活,并且仍然在更高的名字上。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯为例,他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月,他辞去了纽约程序员的工作,搬到了费城,并开始在YouTube上每天7个小时直播股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>YouTube 拥有 35 万粉丝,它正在支付账单。科尔斯说,凭借广告和股票的收入,他可以拿到与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道,像这样依赖股票收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“他说:”你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人,要么付钱给迷因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言,这样他们就可以阻止他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 甚至在上周取消了一项拟议的股权融资,因为该公司显然不喜欢 Reddit 人群的反响。过去一年,AMC 的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官亚当-阿伦(Adam Aron)在推特上表示,他看到了 “许多人赞成,许多人反对 ”对他增发 2500 万股股票的提议的反应,因此该提议将被取消,而不是在本月晚些时候的 AMC 年会上进行表决。该公司没有回答有关如何调查股东的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室里决定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者正在花费更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现,大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪,但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里,美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕零售行动进行交易的报告,得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说,信号中可能存在 “阿尔法”,但要实现这一目标可能需要一些紧张的数字运算。当然,并不是所有的留言板聊天都会导致价格持续上涨,如果没有大量的数据分析,零售订单流很难与机构流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在购买哪些股票和正在出售哪些股票的投资者来说,摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的 20% 的股票,做空卖出兴趣最高的 20% 的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示,目前,许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险,而不是寻找新的机会。“他说:”他们认为这几乎就像一份保险,以限制他们的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于零售商来说,这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动是由社区精神支撑的。其背后的力量既是情感上的,也是道德上的,也是经济上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示,他们的动机是希望证明自己,并像利润一样惩罚保守派。他们互相学习市场,有时会放大或揭穿关于华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票运动与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“26 岁的科尔斯说:”华尔街让我们的经济陷入困境,但没有人因此惹上麻烦。“所以,我认为他们认为我们不仅可以赚钱,还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格 (Claire Hirschberg) 是一名 28 岁的工会组织者,她在 1 月份从朋友那里听说 Robinhood 上购买了价值约 50 美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法,但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应,他是一名长期的资金经理。“她笑着说:”他很生气我买了游戏驿站,还不肯卖。“这让我想永远拿着它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像老华尔街有仪式和准则一样,新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道,在你成为合伙人之前,你不会打菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前,你从不离开办公室,你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦,而且不是按顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万散户交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认财务损失是一种勇敢的行为,是内部坚韧和对本集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事,也不规范语言。你是 “猿类 ”或 “弱智 ”大军的一员。你坚持住,即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>集体行动不仅仅是为了精神支持。交易策略取决于人们保持买入压力,迫使做空,或买入看涨期权,从而引发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔 (Keith Gill) 在二月份众议院金融服务委员会听证会上虚拟露面,成为 Reddit 散户交易员大军推高游戏驿站股价的代言人。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示,他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然,其他人并没有采纳这一建议,而是通过反复做空股票来给备忘录运动注入氧气。6 月中旬,AMC 的空头权益占该股流通量的 17%,低于 1 月份的 28%,但降幅不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格上涨,空头们也控制不住自己。多年来一直关注游戏驿站的韦德布什证券分析师迈克尔-帕切特(Michael Pachter)说,他们开始 “流口水,耳朵里冒出火焰”。“他说:”让我感到震惊的是精神错乱的定义,就是一遍又一遍地做同样的事情,每次都希望有不同的结果,而空头却不断出现。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思-吉尔(Keith Gill)和他的 Reddit raiders 一直在挤压他们,而且一直在起作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者,Reddit 人群需要团结起来,但该社区有时会出现裂缝。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和 AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军,他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经崩溃。 Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) 在 1 月底和 6 月初两次飙升,但现在的交易价格仅略高于 1 月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人已经赔钱了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延,一些交易员担心 wallstreetbets——激发游戏驿站狂热的最初 Reddit 留言板——发展如此之快,以至于它已经失去了最初的精神,并可能变得容易受到操纵。有些人搬到了其他留言板,如 r/superstonk,希望能重现老社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司 Hype Equity 的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔 (Travis Rehl) 表示,他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说,炒作股权通常由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣。现在,他看到了一种不断增长的趋势,即股票突然出现在留言板上,收到积极的聊天,然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“他说:”这让人怀疑什么是真正的讨论,什么是某人只想炒作的东西。wallstreetbets 的版主禁止在该平台上操纵市场,Rehl 表示,他们似乎正在努力遏制错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>“索斯尼克说:”如果你能制造足够的轰动效应,让一只股票在短时间内上涨 10%、20%,甚至 50%,那么你就有巨大的动力去做这件事。</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>美国证券交易委员会正在关注留言板上的有趣交易。美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler)和一些国会议员讨论了改变市场规则,目的是增加保护散户交易者的透明度——尽管如果这些变化减缓交易速度或使交易成本更高,也可能激怒零售人群。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一能遏制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment 行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根 (Dan Egan) 认为,这种势头可能会在 9 月份耗尽。即使是 “猿猴 ”也有责任。“他说:”孩子们开始重返校园;家长们也可以自由地再次上班了。“那是下一次从房间里抽出氧气的时候了。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金引发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪和游戏驿站乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍,那么只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注,这几乎肯定是一件好事。许多新零售商表示,他们正在自学如何交易,并开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何,这是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授亨德里克-贝森宾德(Hendrik Bessembinder)在2018年发表了一项开创性的研究,发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票,亏损的可能性大于赚钱的可能性”。简而言之,挑选单只股票并持有集中投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此,他还是对新一波交易感到鼓舞。“贝森宾德说:”我欢迎零售交易的增加,欢迎股票市场成为一个广泛参与的地方。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易远未结束。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易远未结束。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站(股票代码:GME)、黑莓(BB),甚至百视达的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时,它们何时会再次坠毁的时间已经在流逝。会是几个小时、几天还是几周?</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经过去半年了,核心 “备忘录股票 ”的交易价格仍然处于研究这些股票多年的人认为离谱的水平。Clover Health Investments (CLOV) 和 Newegg Commerce (NEGG) 等新名称最近出现在留言板上,它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易员--长期以来被嘲笑为 “哑巴钱 ”--的集体努力成功地让股市飙升,并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型的迹象,也没有表现出足以证明其估值的利润,但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱,并警告称其关键的网络安全部门将达到收入指导的低端;消息传出后,该股下跌,但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大型经纪商的交易量较 2 月份的峰值略有下降,但仍高于疫情爆发前的两到三倍。数量惊人的这种活动发生在散户交易者青睐的股票中。例如,AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6 月份的日均交易额达到 131 亿美元,超过了苹果(AAPL)的 95 亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的 103 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退,大多数新交易者表示,他们仍然致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中,58%的日内交易者表示,他们计划在未来进行更多的交易,只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉捏酸面团面包;交易者只会变得越来越饥饿。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种食欲,就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。目前,下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“美国海军电子技术员布兰登-卢切克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的一封电子邮件中写道:”我看到'逢低买入'的情绪一刻也没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票飙升是由散户投资者交易的增加推动的。2020年,在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户,超过1000万人开设了新账户。这一记录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露,在今年不到一半的时间里,经纪商已经增加了超过 1000 万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这种现象的推车,也是马。他们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的,然后这一行动推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在 1 月底和 2 月初下载了投资应用程序,只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现,15%的现有交易者在2020年后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>激增中最突出的参与者是 Robinhood,该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了 550 万个资金账户。但它并不孤单。例如,富达宣布,第一季度吸引了 160 万 35 岁以下的新客户,比去年同期增长了 223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在 Robinhood 零佣金模式的压力下,所有主要经纪商都在 2019 年将佣金降至零。这为新客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲置现金进行交易,但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在套现。富达希望在投资者获得驾照之前就吸引他们,允许年仅 13 岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood 正在乘势而上进行首次公开募股,分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的 10 倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与他们的老同行不同。E*Trade 交易主管克里斯-拉金(Chris Larkin)说,多年来,“ETF 一直备受青睐”,E*Trade 现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有。但挑选个股显然是 “2021 年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是,随着世界各地的投资者押注疫情复苏并避免疲软的债券收益率,股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但 ETF 不像股票那样点亮留言板。这并不是说顶级公司的单行道。游戏驿站二月份确实下跌,华尔街享受了幸灾乐祸的时刻。它并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>“盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫-索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道:”就像蝉一样,备忘录交易者在表面上隐匿了几个月后又重新活跃起来。索斯尼克认为,模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反,因为随着势头的变化,它们的粉丝会从一种货币转向另一种货币。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“他写道:”我不认为,在比特币和其他加密货币大幅回调后,备忘录股票卷土重来完全是巧合。</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为备忘录股票是一个 “独立的板块”,他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上,华尔街对备忘录股票革命的反应一直是孤立专业人士认为不理性的市场部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票,分析师也在放弃报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样把零售大军赶走,也不能指望它们在未来 17 年内消失。股票交易已经发生了永久性的变化。今年,零售活动占股本量的 24%,高于 2019 年的 15%。新信条的追随者不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚法学院(Columbia Law School)专门研究证券市场的教授约书亚-米茨(Joshua Mitts)说:”这实际上反映了我们所看到的趋势的逆转,即与个别公司的接触越来越少。“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她所投资的公司的距离,而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>— Matt Kohrs,26 岁,每天在 YouTube 上直播股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早早加入的人的生活,并且仍然在更高的名字上。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯为例,他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月,他辞去了纽约程序员的工作,搬到了费城,并开始在YouTube上每天7个小时直播股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>YouTube 拥有 35 万粉丝,它正在支付账单。科尔斯说,凭借广告和股票的收入,他可以拿到与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道,像这样依赖股票收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“他说:”你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人,要么付钱给迷因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言,这样他们就可以阻止他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 甚至在上周取消了一项拟议的股权融资,因为该公司显然不喜欢 Reddit 人群的反响。过去一年,AMC 的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官亚当-阿伦(Adam Aron)在推特上表示,他看到了 “许多人赞成,许多人反对 ”对他增发 2500 万股股票的提议的反应,因此该提议将被取消,而不是在本月晚些时候的 AMC 年会上进行表决。该公司没有回答有关如何调查股东的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室里决定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者正在花费更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现,大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪,但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里,美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕零售行动进行交易的报告,得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说,信号中可能存在 “阿尔法”,但要实现这一目标可能需要一些紧张的数字运算。当然,并不是所有的留言板聊天都会导致价格持续上涨,如果没有大量的数据分析,零售订单流很难与机构流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在购买哪些股票和正在出售哪些股票的投资者来说,摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的 20% 的股票,做空卖出兴趣最高的 20% 的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示,目前,许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险,而不是寻找新的机会。“他说:”他们认为这几乎就像一份保险,以限制他们的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于零售商来说,这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动是由社区精神支撑的。其背后的力量既是情感上的,也是道德上的,也是经济上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示,他们的动机是希望证明自己,并像利润一样惩罚保守派。他们互相学习市场,有时会放大或揭穿关于华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票运动与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“26 岁的科尔斯说:”华尔街让我们的经济陷入困境,但没有人因此惹上麻烦。“所以,我认为他们认为我们不仅可以赚钱,还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格 (Claire Hirschberg) 是一名 28 岁的工会组织者,她在 1 月份从朋友那里听说 Robinhood 上购买了价值约 50 美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法,但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应,他是一名长期的资金经理。“她笑着说:”他很生气我买了游戏驿站,还不肯卖。“这让我想永远拿着它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像老华尔街有仪式和准则一样,新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道,在你成为合伙人之前,你不会打菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前,你从不离开办公室,你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦,而且不是按顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万散户交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认财务损失是一种勇敢的行为,是内部坚韧和对本集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事,也不规范语言。你是 “猿类 ”或 “弱智 ”大军的一员。你坚持住,即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>集体行动不仅仅是为了精神支持。交易策略取决于人们保持买入压力,迫使做空,或买入看涨期权,从而引发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔 (Keith Gill) 在二月份众议院金融服务委员会听证会上虚拟露面,成为 Reddit 散户交易员大军推高游戏驿站股价的代言人。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示,他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然,其他人并没有采纳这一建议,而是通过反复做空股票来给备忘录运动注入氧气。6 月中旬,AMC 的空头权益占该股流通量的 17%,低于 1 月份的 28%,但降幅不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格上涨,空头们也控制不住自己。多年来一直关注游戏驿站的韦德布什证券分析师迈克尔-帕切特(Michael Pachter)说,他们开始 “流口水,耳朵里冒出火焰”。“他说:”让我感到震惊的是精神错乱的定义,就是一遍又一遍地做同样的事情,每次都希望有不同的结果,而空头却不断出现。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思-吉尔(Keith Gill)和他的 Reddit raiders 一直在挤压他们,而且一直在起作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者,Reddit 人群需要团结起来,但该社区有时会出现裂缝。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和 AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军,他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经崩溃。 Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) 在 1 月底和 6 月初两次飙升,但现在的交易价格仅略高于 1 月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人已经赔钱了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延,一些交易员担心 wallstreetbets——激发游戏驿站狂热的最初 Reddit 留言板——发展如此之快,以至于它已经失去了最初的精神,并可能变得容易受到操纵。有些人搬到了其他留言板,如 r/superstonk,希望能重现老社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司 Hype Equity 的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔 (Travis Rehl) 表示,他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说,炒作股权通常由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣。现在,他看到了一种不断增长的趋势,即股票突然出现在留言板上,收到积极的聊天,然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“他说:”这让人怀疑什么是真正的讨论,什么是某人只想炒作的东西。wallstreetbets 的版主禁止在该平台上操纵市场,Rehl 表示,他们似乎正在努力遏制错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>“索斯尼克说:”如果你能制造足够的轰动效应,让一只股票在短时间内上涨 10%、20%,甚至 50%,那么你就有巨大的动力去做这件事。</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>美国证券交易委员会正在关注留言板上的有趣交易。美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler)和一些国会议员讨论了改变市场规则,目的是增加保护散户交易者的透明度——尽管如果这些变化减缓交易速度或使交易成本更高,也可能激怒零售人群。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一能遏制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment 行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根 (Dan Egan) 认为,这种势头可能会在 9 月份耗尽。即使是 “猿猴 ”也有责任。“他说:”孩子们开始重返校园;家长们也可以自由地再次上班了。“那是下一次从房间里抽出氧气的时候了。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金引发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪和游戏驿站乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍,那么只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注,这几乎肯定是一件好事。许多新零售商表示,他们正在自学如何交易,并开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何,这是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授亨德里克-贝森宾德(Hendrik Bessembinder)在2018年发表了一项开创性的研究,发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票,亏损的可能性大于赚钱的可能性”。简而言之,挑选单只股票并持有集中投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此,他还是对新一波交易感到鼓舞。“贝森宾德说:”我欢迎零售交易的增加,欢迎股票市场成为一个广泛参与的地方。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","CARV":"卡弗储蓄","BB":"黑莓","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","NEGG":"Newegg Comm Inc.","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","GME":"游戏驿站","SCHW":"嘉信理财"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112201050","content_text":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?\nIt has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.\nThe collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.\nThat is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.\nWhile trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.\nEven as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.\nA sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.\n\n“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.\nThe meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.\nMeme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.\n\nThe most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.\nUnder pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.\nThese new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”\nTo be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.\nBut ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.\n“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.\n“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.\nSosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.\nIndeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.\nBut Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.\n\n“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”\nThe swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.\n— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube\nIt is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.\nTake Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.\nWith 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.\n“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.\nCompanies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.\nAMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.\nForget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.\nBig investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.\nIn the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.\nThere can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.\nFor now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.\nFor retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.\nNew investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.\n“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”\nClaire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”\nJust like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.\nThe new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.\nThe group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.\nKeith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.\nMany short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.\nAs the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”\nTo beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.\nDistrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.\nTravis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.\n“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.\n“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.\nThe Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.\nRegulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”\nTraditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.\nIn one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.\nArizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.\nEven so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBBY":0.9,"CARV":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"BB":0.9,"MRIN":0.9,"NEGG":0.9,"SCHW":0.9,"GME":0.9,"WKHS":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}