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- meowbossmeowboss
  ·2021-06-12
  Meow like and comment
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- meowbossmeowboss
  ·2021-06-12
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- meowbossmeowboss
  ·2021-06-11
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- meowbossmeowboss
  ·2021-06-11
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- meowbossmeowboss
  ·2021-06-10
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- meowbossmeowboss
  ·2021-06-10
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- meowbossmeowboss
  ·2021-06-07
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- meowbossmeowboss
  ·2021-06-04
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  Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods<blockquote>Shopify 是一只持续交付货物的昂贵股票</blockquote>
  Summary Shopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the com
  Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods<blockquote>Shopify 是一只持续交付货物的昂贵股票</blockquote>
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- meowbossmeowboss
  ·2021-06-03
  Come and like and comment meow
  AMC Entertainment Holdings Files To Sell Up To 11.55Mln Shares<blockquote>AMC院线控股公司申请出售最多1155万股股票</blockquote>
  AMC tumbles 10% after new stock sale announcement, wipes out 20% premarket rally.AMC Entertainment s
  AMC Entertainment Holdings Files To Sell Up To 11.55Mln Shares<blockquote>AMC院线控股公司申请出售最多1155万股股票</blockquote>
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- meowbossmeowboss
  ·2021-06-02
  Pls like and comment, good news TQ
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meow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183800409","repostId":"2142938292","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114161366,"gmtCreate":1623058016755,"gmtModify":1634037409725,"author":{"id":"3582676570400075","authorId":"3582676570400075","name":"meowboss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2aed689e7f9f2a0a8a4e5dabf7482e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582676570400075","authorIdStr":"3582676570400075"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like meow","listText":"Comment and like meow","text":"Comment and like meow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114161366","repostId":"1184606456","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116754467,"gmtCreate":1622820742259,"gmtModify":1634097641498,"author":{"id":"3582676570400075","authorId":"3582676570400075","name":"meowboss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2aed689e7f9f2a0a8a4e5dabf7482e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582676570400075","authorIdStr":"3582676570400075"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116754467","repostId":"1167651093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167651093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622820402,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167651093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods<blockquote>Shopify 是一只持续交付货物的昂贵股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167651093","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the com","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.</li>  <li>The company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and International markets to further drive its growth story.</li>  <li>Its technical picture also shows a stock that has always been strongly supported along its long-term uptrend.</li>  <li>I attempt to discuss the key aspects of its operating performances and why investors should also focus on international expansion as a key aspect of e-commerce growth.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52317e0f54753da09429856ece6bc6b5\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Shopify 一直为长期投资者提供服务，尽管估值很高，但他们仍对该公司保持信心。</li><li>该公司在支付和国际市场方面拥有多种增长动力，以进一步推动其增长故事。</li><li>其技术图还显示了一只在长期上升趋势中一直受到强有力支撑的股票。</li><li>我试图讨论其经营业绩的关键方面，以及为什么投资者也应该将国际扩张作为电子商务增长的一个关键方面。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：JHVEPhoto/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images 投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shopify (SHOP) is one of the most hotly debated e-commerce stocks because of its explosive revenue growth rates and its high valuations. The company continues to demonstrate both stellar topline and bottomline growth while also improving its cash flow margins. The management’s ability to monetize its merchants through Shopify Payments and its suite of merchant solutions is a masterstroke that shows the capability of the management to be able to continue executing its high growth strategies with aplomb moving forward. Despite its relatively high valuation levels, it also remains a very strong stock from the technical point of view, so bullish investors may consider adding it at the next dip.</p><p><blockquote>Shopify (SHOP) 因其爆炸性的收入增长率和高估值而成为争论最激烈的电子商务股票之一。该公司继续表现出强劲的营收和利润增长，同时也提高了现金流利润率。管理层能够通过 Shopify Payments 及其商户解决方案套件实现商户货币化，这是一个绝妙的举动，表明管理层有能力继续从容应对地执行其高增长战略。尽管其估值水平相对较高，但从技术角度来看，它仍然是一只非常强劲的股票，因此看涨投资者可能会考虑在下一次下跌时增持它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shopify: Defying Amazon’s Valuation Logic</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Shopify： 挑战亚马逊的估值逻辑</b></blockquote></p><p> Shopify’s critics have often questioned the logic of investing in Shopify when you can invest in Amazon (AMZN) for a fraction of its expensive valuation. Yet, investors in SHOP continue to defy “common valuation logic” by pointing to Shopify’s incredible growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>Shopify 的批评者经常质疑投资 Shopify 的逻辑，因为你可以用亚马逊（AMZN）昂贵估值的一小部分来投资它。然而，SHOP 的投资者继续无视 “常见的估值逻辑”，指出 Shopify 令人难以置信的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2dcffad535b32122075c2b0af38ff14\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"818\"><span>SHOP and AMZN LTM Revenue Growth Trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SHOP 和 AMZN LTM 收入增长趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d799fb8dc581602cf953723e8439b3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\"><span>AMZN and SHOP LTM Revenue YoY Growth &amp; Revenue 3Y CAGR. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AMZN 和商店 LTM 收入同比增长和收入 3 年复合年增长率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the last 5 years, SHOP’s revenue growth has easily surpassed AMZN at every reporting quarter, and the pandemic fueled e-commerce tailwind also drove higher growth to SHOP as its LTM revenue YoY growth read 99.6% as compared to AMZN’s “meagre” 41.5%. Moreover, SHOP’s revenue 3Y CAGR of 63.3% also easily bested AMZN’s 3Y CAGR of 29.5%. So clearly, SHOP’s growth has been truly phenomenal.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的 5 年里，SHOP 的收入增长在每个报告季度都轻松超过了 AMZN，而大流行病推动的电子商务顺风也推动了 SHOP 的更高增长，其 LTM 收入同比增长率为 99.6%，而 AMZN 的 41.5% “微薄 ”。此外，SHOP 的 3 年复合年增长率为 63.3%，也轻松超过了亚马逊 29.5% 的 3 年复合年增长率。很明显，SHOP 的增长确实非常惊人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shopify's Compelling Merchant Solutions Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Shopify 引人注目的商家解决方案增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530e31580ddf7319700509d7bb77eadf\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"605\"><span>Shopify Revenue Segments. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 收入部分。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In recent years, we could see that even though Shopify’s revenue growth has been pretty much broad-based, its merchant solutions segment has been taking up an increasingly large contribution in the company’s revenue base and have transformed itself into Shopify’s most important revenue driver, accounting for 67.6% of Q1’21 revenue. The shift towards increasing the revenue base of merchant solutions has seen the company continuing to roll out multiple new merchant solutions initiatives and services to further monetize the company’s merchant base and improve the strength of its ecosystem, therefore enhancing its “stickiness” and retention over time.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，我们可以看到，尽管 Shopify 的收入增长基础相当广泛，但其商家解决方案部门对公司收入基础的贡献越来越大，并已成为 Shopify 最重要的收入驱动力，占 21 年第一季度收入的 67.6%。随着商家解决方案收入基础的转变，公司继续推出多项新的商家解决方案计划和服务，以进一步将公司的商家基础货币化，提高其生态系统的实力，从而随着时间的推移提高其 “粘性 ”和保留率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e25591146598f17356e29c09b22ee48a\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"540\"><span>Shopify Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 订阅解决方案和商家解决方案同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be careful not to get too excited with the pulled forward growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that we observed in FY 20 as seen above. The management has already strongly emphasized in their guidance that they do not expect this to repeat, and&nbsp;expects YoY growth to normalize&nbsp;to levels seen before the pandemic, which in this case is estimated to be somewhere north of 50%. Even though growth is expected to normalize moving forward, it’s not as if SHOP has been growing slowly and more importantly the pulled forward growth last year has allowed SHOP to dramatically increase its merchants growth onto its platform for future monetization within Shopify’s robust ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应小心，不要对我们在 20 财年观察到的 COVID-19 大流行带来的拉动增长过于兴奋，如上所述。管理层已经在指导中强烈强调，他们预计这种情况不会再次发生，并预计同比增长将恢复正常至大流行之前的水平，在这种情况下，估计将超过 50%。尽管未来的增长有望恢复正常，但 SHOP 的增长并不缓慢，更重要的是，去年的增长使 SHOP 得以大幅增加其平台上的商家数量，以便在 Shopify 强大的生态系统中实现未来的货币化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81297d610a91d9faaac76cab97c2a46\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"566\"><span>Shopify Segment Gross Margins. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 细分市场毛利率。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Although Q1’21’s gross margin was higher than recent historical trends, we should not expect this to carry on moving forward. The management pointed out clearly that the company is focusing its efforts to continue improving its robust ecosystem for its merchants such as developing the Shopify Fulfillment Network [SFN], as it expects that the&nbsp;merchant solutions segment to continue driving its revenue growth&nbsp;even if it means lesser gross margins moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 21 年第一季度的毛利率高于近期的历史趋势，但我们不应指望这种情况会继续下去。管理层明确指出，该公司正集中精力继续改善其强大的商家生态系统，例如开发 Shopify 履行网络 [SFN]，因为它预计商家解决方案部门将继续推动其收入增长，即使这意味着未来的毛利率将会降低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shopify Payments is the Key to Unlock the Benefits from GMV Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Shopify 支付是释放 GMV 增长优势的关键</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite that, the company clarified that as Shopify Payments continue to see increased adoption and usage among its merchants, the company expects to see significant improvement to its SG&amp;A efficiencies as Shopify Payments has a much lesser impact on SG&amp;A margins, therefore leading to improvement on operating efficiencies as Shopify Payments scale up further.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司澄清说，随着 Shopify Payments 在其商家中的采用和使用不断增加，该公司预计其 SG&amp;A 效率将显着提高，因为 Shopify Payments 对 SG&amp;A 利润率的影响要小得多，因此随着 Shopify Payments 的进一步扩大，运营效率将得到提高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f95af102893b8aa172d3bbb38e04e5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"724\"><span>SHOP EBIT Margin, SG&amp;A Margin, R&amp;D Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>商店息税前利润率、SG&amp;A利润率、R&amp;D利润率、毛利率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, investors could see that despite posting a relatively high LTM gross margin profile in Q1’21: 53.5%, it has only recently turned LTM EBIT profitable (Q1’21: 10.5%), thanks to the company’s solid improvement with its operating efficiencies even though the gross margin profile has remained stable over time, even with the pulled forward growth from COVID-19 last year.</p><p><blockquote>显然，投资者可以看到，尽管 LTM 在 21 年第一季度的毛利率相对较高，达到 53.5%，但直到最近才实现 LTM 息税前利润盈利（21 年第一季度：10.5%），这要归功于公司运营效率的稳步提高，尽管毛利率状况随着时间的推移保持稳定，即使去年 COVID-19 带来了增长。</blockquote></p><p> We could see a consistently declining LTM SG&amp;A margin trend reaching 24.8% in Q1’21 from a high of 44.1% in Q4’16, signifying a huge improvement. Therefore, I’m confident that SHOP would continue to deliver improved operating efficiencies as it scales up its SFN to further strengthen its ecosystem, creating even more value and synergies for its merchants and their customers.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，LTM SG&amp;A 利润率呈持续下降趋势，从 2016 年第四季度的 44.1% 高点降至 21 年第一季度的 24.8%，这意味着巨大的改善。因此，我相信，随着 SHOP 扩大其 SFN 规模，进一步加强其生态系统，SHOP 将继续提高运营效率，为商家及其客户创造更多价值和协同效应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SHOP’s GMV and GPV Analysis. Data Source: Company Filings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商店的 GMV 和 GPV 分析。数据来源：公司文件</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6f4cabe3fd5b28627f459fb7c38d30d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>SHOP’s GMV and GPV YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>商店的 GMV 和 GPV 同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could clearly see the increasingly important role of Shopify Payments for its merchants as more and more merchants are using Shopify Payments over time as GPV growth has outpaced GMV growth consistently, with Q1’21 reading coming in at 137% YoY growth and 114.4% YoY growth, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>随着时间的推移，越来越多的商家开始使用 Shopify Payments，我们可以清楚地看到 Shopify Payments 对商家的作用日益重要，GPV 的增长速度一直超过 GMV 的增长速度，21 年第一季度的数据分别同比增长 137% 和 114.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2221628cdde154ad2c8a97a321036aa9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>SHOP GPV as a % of GMV. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>商店GPV占GMV的百分比。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With the increased adoption and usage of Shopify Payments, in Q1’21 GPV formed 46.4% of GMV, from a low of 37.5% of GMV just 3 years ago. I believe Shopify is moving in the right direction to continue driving more and more merchants towards Shopify Payments as it creates a powerful flywheel to unlock even more and more of the expected massive GMV growth moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>随着 Shopify Payments 的采用和使用越来越多，21 年第一季度的 GPV 占 GMV 的 46.4%，而就在 3 年前，GMV 的 37.5% 还很低。我相信 Shopify 正朝着正确的方向前进，继续推动越来越多的商家转向 Shopify Payments，因为它创造了一个强大的飞轮，可以释放越来越多预期的 GMV 大规模增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0258ae827634f290dfe0d7d81fd92809\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Shopify MRR. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify先生。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2376f5f19c5f4a4cb9e4f4bb797fcb64\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Shopify MRR YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify MRR 同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The sustained improvement in GPV growth has come at an important juncture as SHOP had already been experiencing slower MRR growth pre-pandemic (from 36% in Q1’19 to 21% in Q2’20). Therefore, by strategically being able to monetize its merchants in other areas has helped to manage this slowdown, while at the same time opened up many new revenue opportunities for Merchant Solutions to help drive the company’s future growth.</p><p><blockquote>GPV 增长的持续改善正值一个重要节点，因为在大流行之前，SHOP 的 MRR 增长已经放缓（从 2019 年第一季度的 36% 下降到 2020 年第二季度的 21%）。因此，通过战略性地将其他领域的商户货币化，有助于控制这种放缓，同时为商户解决方案开辟了许多新的收入机会，以帮助推动公司未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Importance of International Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>国际扩张的重要性</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d7cd04a66b877c2669945d4f9a68ef\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"775\"><span>Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>按商家位置划分的Shopify收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31774ad4abd47199de636274620d5302\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 按商家位置划分的收入同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although U.S. merchants continue to be SHOP’s most important revenue driver (66.7% of FY 20 revenue), the company has also experienced rapid growth in other geographical markets, particularly in its Rest of World segment. As we can observe from the above chart, U.S. growth has already been trending down pre-pandemic, while Rest of World growth has continued to grow rapidly and consistently.</p><p><blockquote>虽然美国商家仍然是 SHOP 最重要的收入驱动力（占 20 财年收入的 66.7%），但该公司在其他地区市场，尤其是在世界其他地区，也经历了快速增长。从上图可以看出，美国的经济增长在大流行之前就已经呈下降趋势，而世界其他地区的经济增长则继续快速、持续地增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39fd8a089cc64ae41da56ef8a8ddafe3\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"597\"><span>Amazon Revenue Segments YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊收入部门同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We also observed this from AMZN’s International segment growth where although it has been somewhat of a laggard in previous quarters, it has started to outpace North America’s growth for the last 2 quarters, culminating in Q1’21 YoY growth of 60.4% for the International segment against 39.5% for the North America segment.</p><p><blockquote>我们还从亚马逊国际业务的增长中观察到了这一点，尽管亚马逊在前几个季度有所落后，但在过去两个季度中，亚马逊国际业务的增长率已开始超过北美业务的增长率，最终在 21 年第一季度，亚马逊国际业务的同比增长率为 60.4%，而北美业务的同比增长率为 39.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7909e7fdd6bf5972121d1a9a70f75a46\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue 2017 to 2025. Data Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2017年至2025年美国零售电子商务收入。数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c99e9a30fb46d3d1f22e77b72c40740\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue YoY Growth. Data Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国零售电子商务收入同比增长。数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could see from the above why ramping up growth internationally is so important for Shopify to continue delivering its expected spectacular growth rates. Even though Shopify merchants sell internationally, the fact that the SFN currently serves only businesses whosell to U.S. customersindicates the significance of the U.S. consumers to Shopify’s ecommerce revenues. However, as the growth of U.S. retail e-commerce revenue is expected to slow down over time (from 8.7% YoY in 2021 to 2.7% YoY by 2025), companies like Shopify who rely on high growth to justify its valuation must either take market share away from its key competitors or look for growth outside of the United States.</p><p><blockquote>从上面我们可以看出，为什么提高国际增长对于 Shopify 继续实现其预期的惊人增长率如此重要。尽管 Shopify 商家在国际上销售产品，但 SFN 目前只为向美国客户销售产品的企业提供服务，这一事实表明了美国消费者对 Shopify 电子商务收入的重要性。然而，由于美国零售电子商务收入的增长预计将随着时间的推移而放缓（从 2021 年的同比 8.7% 降至 2025 年的同比 2.7%），像 Shopify 这样依赖高增长来证明其估值合理性的公司必须要么从其主要竞争对手那里夺取市场份额，要么寻求美国以外的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60f4fcd9254552bdd46a6d9c613384d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Value of Southeast Asia e-commerce market. Data Source: Google, Temasek Holdings, Bain &amp; Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>东南亚电子商务市场价值。数据来源：谷歌、淡马锡控股、贝恩公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For example, if we look across to Southeast Asia, and compare the growth rates of the Southeast Asian market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 22.6%) and the United States market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 3.73%), it’s easy to see which market will be the key driver of e-commerce growth in the near future. There’s no doubt that the U.S. market remains an extremely important market given its size, however much of the future growth will likely come from overseas markets. Therefore, it’s important that Shopify continues to drive growth across other geographical markets.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果我们放眼东南亚，比较东南亚市场（2020 年至 2025 年预计 5 年复合年增长率：22.6%）和美国市场（2020 年至 2025 年预计 5 年复合年增长率：3.73%）的增长率，就不难看出哪个市场将成为不久的将来电子商务增长的主要驱动力。毫无疑问，鉴于美国市场的规模，它仍然是一个极其重要的市场，但未来的大部分增长可能来自海外市场。因此，Shopify 继续推动其他地区市场的增长非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let's Bring in Sea Limited</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Let's Bring in Sea Limited</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40fe31435cdc50217df4172982b7354\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"821\"><span>Sea Limited &amp; SHOP EBIT Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sea Limited &amp; SHOP EBIT 利润率、毛利率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In order to look at Shopify’s growth opportunities in the Southeast Asian market, I thought it would be important to first consider the most important e-commerce player in that region: Sea Limited (SE), which I had previouslycovered in detail in an article hererecently.</p><p><blockquote>为了了解 Shopify 在东南亚市场的增长机会，我认为首先要考虑该地区最重要的电子商务企业： Sea Limited (SE)，我曾在最近的一篇文章中详细介绍过它。</blockquote></p><p> It’s easy to see how SHOP’s more profitable business model on relying on subscriptions and merchant solutions drove a much higher EBIT margin as compared to SE’s online marketplace platform: Shopee, which is currently being supported by the company’s profitable Garena gaming segment.</p><p><blockquote>不难看出，与 SE 的在线市场平台 Shopee 相比，SHOP 依靠订阅和商家解决方案的盈利能力更强的商业模式是如何推动息税前利润率高得多的： Shopee 目前由该公司盈利的 Garena 游戏部门提供支持。</blockquote></p><p> Despite that, Sea has still been able to drive significant revenue growth and operating efficiencies such that its EBIT margins have seen remarkable improvement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Sea 仍然能够推动显着的收入增长和运营效率，因此其息税前利润率有了显着改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788d4d4399cbdeb497792a1f90868e47\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"714\"><span>EBIT Margin Forecast. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>息税前利润率预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we modelled SE and SHOP’s EBIT margins moving forward, we could see how both companies’ improving cost efficiencies, notably from the reduction in SG&amp;A margins, would help both companies to continue improving their operating margins over time.</p><p><blockquote>当我们对 SE 和 SHOP 未来的息税前利润率进行建模时，我们可以看到两家公司成本效率的提高，尤其是 SG&amp;A 利润率的降低，将如何帮助两家公司随着时间的推移继续提高营业利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f94e62035fe5fc04eaeb95b7d760df28\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"703\"><span>SE and SHOP Projected Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE 和 SHOP 预计无杠杆自由现金流利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This is where their SE is expected to pull ahead. In modelling their FCF, SE is expected to generate so much FCF from its revenue growth and operating profits that the company looks increasingly like a massive cash flow machine moving forward. It’s not as if SHOP looks sloppy, but when compared to SE’s FCF margins, they certainly don’t look as impressive though.</p><p><blockquote>这就是他们的SE有望领先的地方。在对其自由现金流进行建模时，SE 预计将从其收入增长和营业利润中产生如此多的自由现金流，以至于该公司看起来越来越像一台向前发展的大型现金流机器。这并不是说 SHOP 看起来很草率，但与 SE 的 FCF 利润率相比，它们看起来肯定不那么令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa625e12090dfc0f64e439c278b5b9d0\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"649\"><span>SE and SHOP Projected Revenue CAGR (5Y, 10Y), 10Y Projected Av. Unlevered FCF Margin, EV / FY+1 Rev. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE 和商店预计收入 CAGR（5 年、10 年）、10 年预计 Av。无杠杆自由现金流保证金，EV / FY+1 修订版。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, when we bring their current valuation levels into the picture (EV / FY+1 Rev), we could see that SE’s current valuation (16.3x) looks so much more attractive than SHOP’s (32.7x), while being able to convert that rapid revenue growth into higher FCF margins. It should also be noted that I have modelled both companies to continue their blockbuster performances: SE (5Y CAGR of 44.3%, 10Y CAGR of 26.7%), SHOP (5Y CAGR 41.4%, 10Y CAGR 32.3%).</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，当我们将它们目前的估值水平（EV / FY+1 Rev）纳入考量时，我们可以看到 SE 目前的估值（16.3 倍）比 SHOP 的估值（32.7 倍）更具吸引力，同时还能将快速增长的收入转化为更高的自由现金流利润率。还应该注意的是，我对两家公司进行了建模，以延续他们的一鸣惊人的业绩：SE（5年CAGR 44.3%，10年CAGR 26.7%），SHOP（5年CAGR 41.4%，10年CAGR 32.3%）。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, for investors who would like a share of that rapid international growth in the Southeast Asian market coupled with a leading cash flow generating gaming segment, you should look no further than SE.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于那些希望分享东南亚市场快速增长的国际增长以及领先的现金流产生游戏领域的投资者来说，您应该看看SE。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df93eabc2cf51bdca0056071317076a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market share of e-commerce software platforms in the U.S. in 2021 Data Source: Builtwith</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年美国电子商务软件平台市场份额数据来源：Builtwith</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2485bbbc639e9512e106f6dd1ab48ff\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Unique visitors to the most popular online retailers in SEA in 2020. Data Source: iPrice Group, SimilarWeb, Marketing in Asia</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年SEA最受欢迎的在线零售商的独立访客。数据来源：iPrice Group、SimilarWeb、Marketing in Asia</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider the competitive economics in the U.S. against Southeast Asia, it becomes very clear. Shopify faces strong competition within its software platform segment, without accounting for Amazon’s prowess as well. Even though I expect Shopify to continue its rapid expansion, I believe that it faces more intensive competitive threats than Sea Limited as the pie in the U.S. is expected to grow slower over time. SHOP needs almost perfect execution every quarter to justify its lofty valuations.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑美国与东南亚的竞争经济时，这一点变得非常清楚。Shopify 在软件平台领域面临着激烈的竞争，这还不包括亚马逊的实力。尽管我预计 Shopify 将继续快速扩张，但我相信它面临着比 Sea Limited 更激烈的竞争威胁，因为随着时间的推移，美国的市场份额预计会增长放缓。SHOP 每个季度都需要近乎完美的执行来证明其高估值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> As compared to SE, it is clearly the dominant online marketplace now in Southeast Asia by a fairly large margin, and its prowess and scale is also growing, further stretching the distance from its competitors. Coupled with its ShopeePay payments platform, it also creates a flywheel effect similar to what Shopify Payments does for Shopify. The leadership in Southeast Asia is surely Sea’s to lose, and there’s so much potential growth that the company can capture in this region as the undisputed leader. When we consider Shopify’s valuations against SE’s it looks quite clear SE’s valuation looks more attractive now, with stronger market leadership and arguably higher potential growth.</p><p><blockquote>与SE相比，它显然是目前东南亚占主导地位的在线市场，其实力和规模也在增长，进一步拉近了与竞争对手的距离。再加上其ShopeePay支付平台，它还创造了一种飞轮效应，类似于Shopify支付为Shopify所做的事情。Sea 在东南亚的领导地位肯定会失去，作为无可争议的领导者，该公司可以在该地区抓住巨大的增长潜力。当我们将 Shopify 的估值与 SE 的估值进行比较时，SE 的估值现在看起来更有吸引力，拥有更强的市场领导地位和更高的潜在增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9782afa86bafbd3d2e54e41e0c1d13\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"794\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SHOP’s price action has been stuck somewhat in a large consolidation phase since Oct 20, with the bull trap set in Feb 21 at around the $1500 level. Support was found at around the $1000 level, with further support at around the $835 level for investors who wish to add further into SHOP. It’s important to note that despite SHOP’s lofty valuations, its long term uptrend bias has never been threatened, and I expect this to carry on moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>自 10 月 20 日以来，SHOP 的价格走势一直处于大盘整阶段，牛市陷阱于 2 月 21 日设定在 1500 美元左右。支撑位在 1000 美元左右，对于希望进一步增持的投资者来说，支撑位在 835 美元左右。值得注意的是，尽管 SHOP 的估值很高，但其长期上升趋势从未受到威胁，我预计这种情况将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping it all up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Although Shopify is one of the most expensive high quality e-commerce stocks right now, it’s also expected to generate rapid growth ahead with its ever improving ecosystem for its merchants. Coupled with one of the strongest long term uptrend biases that I have seen for stocks (It didn’t lose its key support levels even during the COVID-19 bear market), I believe this puts SHOP in a strong position as a stock to add aggressively at the next big dip.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Shopify 是目前最昂贵的优质电子商务股票之一，但凭借其不断完善的商家生态系统，预计它也将在未来实现快速增长。再加上我所见过的股票最强烈的长期上升趋势偏差之一（即使在 COVID-19 熊市期间，它也没有失去关键支撑位），我相信这使得 SHOP 作为一只在下一次大跌中积极上涨的股票处于有利地位。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods<blockquote>Shopify 是一只持续交付货物的昂贵股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods<blockquote>Shopify 是一只持续交付货物的昂贵股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 23:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.</li>  <li>The company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and International markets to further drive its growth story.</li>  <li>Its technical picture also shows a stock that has always been strongly supported along its long-term uptrend.</li>  <li>I attempt to discuss the key aspects of its operating performances and why investors should also focus on international expansion as a key aspect of e-commerce growth.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52317e0f54753da09429856ece6bc6b5\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Shopify 一直为长期投资者提供服务，尽管估值很高，但他们仍对该公司保持信心。</li><li>该公司在支付和国际市场方面拥有多种增长动力，以进一步推动其增长故事。</li><li>其技术图还显示了一只在长期上升趋势中一直受到强有力支撑的股票。</li><li>我试图讨论其经营业绩的关键方面，以及为什么投资者也应该将国际扩张作为电子商务增长的一个关键方面。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：JHVEPhoto/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images 投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shopify (SHOP) is one of the most hotly debated e-commerce stocks because of its explosive revenue growth rates and its high valuations. The company continues to demonstrate both stellar topline and bottomline growth while also improving its cash flow margins. The management’s ability to monetize its merchants through Shopify Payments and its suite of merchant solutions is a masterstroke that shows the capability of the management to be able to continue executing its high growth strategies with aplomb moving forward. Despite its relatively high valuation levels, it also remains a very strong stock from the technical point of view, so bullish investors may consider adding it at the next dip.</p><p><blockquote>Shopify (SHOP) 因其爆炸性的收入增长率和高估值而成为争论最激烈的电子商务股票之一。该公司继续表现出强劲的营收和利润增长，同时也提高了现金流利润率。管理层能够通过 Shopify Payments 及其商户解决方案套件实现商户货币化，这是一个绝妙的举动，表明管理层有能力继续从容应对地执行其高增长战略。尽管其估值水平相对较高，但从技术角度来看，它仍然是一只非常强劲的股票，因此看涨投资者可能会考虑在下一次下跌时增持它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shopify: Defying Amazon’s Valuation Logic</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Shopify： 挑战亚马逊的估值逻辑</b></blockquote></p><p> Shopify’s critics have often questioned the logic of investing in Shopify when you can invest in Amazon (AMZN) for a fraction of its expensive valuation. Yet, investors in SHOP continue to defy “common valuation logic” by pointing to Shopify’s incredible growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>Shopify 的批评者经常质疑投资 Shopify 的逻辑，因为你可以用亚马逊（AMZN）昂贵估值的一小部分来投资它。然而，SHOP 的投资者继续无视 “常见的估值逻辑”，指出 Shopify 令人难以置信的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2dcffad535b32122075c2b0af38ff14\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"818\"><span>SHOP and AMZN LTM Revenue Growth Trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SHOP 和 AMZN LTM 收入增长趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d799fb8dc581602cf953723e8439b3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\"><span>AMZN and SHOP LTM Revenue YoY Growth &amp; Revenue 3Y CAGR. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AMZN 和商店 LTM 收入同比增长和收入 3 年复合年增长率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the last 5 years, SHOP’s revenue growth has easily surpassed AMZN at every reporting quarter, and the pandemic fueled e-commerce tailwind also drove higher growth to SHOP as its LTM revenue YoY growth read 99.6% as compared to AMZN’s “meagre” 41.5%. Moreover, SHOP’s revenue 3Y CAGR of 63.3% also easily bested AMZN’s 3Y CAGR of 29.5%. So clearly, SHOP’s growth has been truly phenomenal.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的 5 年里，SHOP 的收入增长在每个报告季度都轻松超过了 AMZN，而大流行病推动的电子商务顺风也推动了 SHOP 的更高增长，其 LTM 收入同比增长率为 99.6%，而 AMZN 的 41.5% “微薄 ”。此外，SHOP 的 3 年复合年增长率为 63.3%，也轻松超过了亚马逊 29.5% 的 3 年复合年增长率。很明显，SHOP 的增长确实非常惊人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shopify's Compelling Merchant Solutions Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Shopify 引人注目的商家解决方案增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530e31580ddf7319700509d7bb77eadf\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"605\"><span>Shopify Revenue Segments. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 收入部分。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In recent years, we could see that even though Shopify’s revenue growth has been pretty much broad-based, its merchant solutions segment has been taking up an increasingly large contribution in the company’s revenue base and have transformed itself into Shopify’s most important revenue driver, accounting for 67.6% of Q1’21 revenue. The shift towards increasing the revenue base of merchant solutions has seen the company continuing to roll out multiple new merchant solutions initiatives and services to further monetize the company’s merchant base and improve the strength of its ecosystem, therefore enhancing its “stickiness” and retention over time.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，我们可以看到，尽管 Shopify 的收入增长基础相当广泛，但其商家解决方案部门对公司收入基础的贡献越来越大，并已成为 Shopify 最重要的收入驱动力，占 21 年第一季度收入的 67.6%。随着商家解决方案收入基础的转变，公司继续推出多项新的商家解决方案计划和服务，以进一步将公司的商家基础货币化，提高其生态系统的实力，从而随着时间的推移提高其 “粘性 ”和保留率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e25591146598f17356e29c09b22ee48a\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"540\"><span>Shopify Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 订阅解决方案和商家解决方案同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be careful not to get too excited with the pulled forward growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that we observed in FY 20 as seen above. The management has already strongly emphasized in their guidance that they do not expect this to repeat, and&nbsp;expects YoY growth to normalize&nbsp;to levels seen before the pandemic, which in this case is estimated to be somewhere north of 50%. Even though growth is expected to normalize moving forward, it’s not as if SHOP has been growing slowly and more importantly the pulled forward growth last year has allowed SHOP to dramatically increase its merchants growth onto its platform for future monetization within Shopify’s robust ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应小心，不要对我们在 20 财年观察到的 COVID-19 大流行带来的拉动增长过于兴奋，如上所述。管理层已经在指导中强烈强调，他们预计这种情况不会再次发生，并预计同比增长将恢复正常至大流行之前的水平，在这种情况下，估计将超过 50%。尽管未来的增长有望恢复正常，但 SHOP 的增长并不缓慢，更重要的是，去年的增长使 SHOP 得以大幅增加其平台上的商家数量，以便在 Shopify 强大的生态系统中实现未来的货币化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81297d610a91d9faaac76cab97c2a46\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"566\"><span>Shopify Segment Gross Margins. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 细分市场毛利率。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Although Q1’21’s gross margin was higher than recent historical trends, we should not expect this to carry on moving forward. The management pointed out clearly that the company is focusing its efforts to continue improving its robust ecosystem for its merchants such as developing the Shopify Fulfillment Network [SFN], as it expects that the&nbsp;merchant solutions segment to continue driving its revenue growth&nbsp;even if it means lesser gross margins moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 21 年第一季度的毛利率高于近期的历史趋势，但我们不应指望这种情况会继续下去。管理层明确指出，该公司正集中精力继续改善其强大的商家生态系统，例如开发 Shopify 履行网络 [SFN]，因为它预计商家解决方案部门将继续推动其收入增长，即使这意味着未来的毛利率将会降低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shopify Payments is the Key to Unlock the Benefits from GMV Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Shopify 支付是释放 GMV 增长优势的关键</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite that, the company clarified that as Shopify Payments continue to see increased adoption and usage among its merchants, the company expects to see significant improvement to its SG&amp;A efficiencies as Shopify Payments has a much lesser impact on SG&amp;A margins, therefore leading to improvement on operating efficiencies as Shopify Payments scale up further.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司澄清说，随着 Shopify Payments 在其商家中的采用和使用不断增加，该公司预计其 SG&amp;A 效率将显着提高，因为 Shopify Payments 对 SG&amp;A 利润率的影响要小得多，因此随着 Shopify Payments 的进一步扩大，运营效率将得到提高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f95af102893b8aa172d3bbb38e04e5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"724\"><span>SHOP EBIT Margin, SG&amp;A Margin, R&amp;D Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>商店息税前利润率、SG&amp;A利润率、R&amp;D利润率、毛利率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, investors could see that despite posting a relatively high LTM gross margin profile in Q1’21: 53.5%, it has only recently turned LTM EBIT profitable (Q1’21: 10.5%), thanks to the company’s solid improvement with its operating efficiencies even though the gross margin profile has remained stable over time, even with the pulled forward growth from COVID-19 last year.</p><p><blockquote>显然，投资者可以看到，尽管 LTM 在 21 年第一季度的毛利率相对较高，达到 53.5%，但直到最近才实现 LTM 息税前利润盈利（21 年第一季度：10.5%），这要归功于公司运营效率的稳步提高，尽管毛利率状况随着时间的推移保持稳定，即使去年 COVID-19 带来了增长。</blockquote></p><p> We could see a consistently declining LTM SG&amp;A margin trend reaching 24.8% in Q1’21 from a high of 44.1% in Q4’16, signifying a huge improvement. Therefore, I’m confident that SHOP would continue to deliver improved operating efficiencies as it scales up its SFN to further strengthen its ecosystem, creating even more value and synergies for its merchants and their customers.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，LTM SG&amp;A 利润率呈持续下降趋势，从 2016 年第四季度的 44.1% 高点降至 21 年第一季度的 24.8%，这意味着巨大的改善。因此，我相信，随着 SHOP 扩大其 SFN 规模，进一步加强其生态系统，SHOP 将继续提高运营效率，为商家及其客户创造更多价值和协同效应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SHOP’s GMV and GPV Analysis. Data Source: Company Filings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商店的 GMV 和 GPV 分析。数据来源：公司文件</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6f4cabe3fd5b28627f459fb7c38d30d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>SHOP’s GMV and GPV YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>商店的 GMV 和 GPV 同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could clearly see the increasingly important role of Shopify Payments for its merchants as more and more merchants are using Shopify Payments over time as GPV growth has outpaced GMV growth consistently, with Q1’21 reading coming in at 137% YoY growth and 114.4% YoY growth, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>随着时间的推移，越来越多的商家开始使用 Shopify Payments，我们可以清楚地看到 Shopify Payments 对商家的作用日益重要，GPV 的增长速度一直超过 GMV 的增长速度，21 年第一季度的数据分别同比增长 137% 和 114.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2221628cdde154ad2c8a97a321036aa9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>SHOP GPV as a % of GMV. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>商店GPV占GMV的百分比。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With the increased adoption and usage of Shopify Payments, in Q1’21 GPV formed 46.4% of GMV, from a low of 37.5% of GMV just 3 years ago. I believe Shopify is moving in the right direction to continue driving more and more merchants towards Shopify Payments as it creates a powerful flywheel to unlock even more and more of the expected massive GMV growth moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>随着 Shopify Payments 的采用和使用越来越多，21 年第一季度的 GPV 占 GMV 的 46.4%，而就在 3 年前，GMV 的 37.5% 还很低。我相信 Shopify 正朝着正确的方向前进，继续推动越来越多的商家转向 Shopify Payments，因为它创造了一个强大的飞轮，可以释放越来越多预期的 GMV 大规模增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0258ae827634f290dfe0d7d81fd92809\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Shopify MRR. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify先生。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2376f5f19c5f4a4cb9e4f4bb797fcb64\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Shopify MRR YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify MRR 同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The sustained improvement in GPV growth has come at an important juncture as SHOP had already been experiencing slower MRR growth pre-pandemic (from 36% in Q1’19 to 21% in Q2’20). Therefore, by strategically being able to monetize its merchants in other areas has helped to manage this slowdown, while at the same time opened up many new revenue opportunities for Merchant Solutions to help drive the company’s future growth.</p><p><blockquote>GPV 增长的持续改善正值一个重要节点，因为在大流行之前，SHOP 的 MRR 增长已经放缓（从 2019 年第一季度的 36% 下降到 2020 年第二季度的 21%）。因此，通过战略性地将其他领域的商户货币化，有助于控制这种放缓，同时为商户解决方案开辟了许多新的收入机会，以帮助推动公司未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Importance of International Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>国际扩张的重要性</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d7cd04a66b877c2669945d4f9a68ef\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"775\"><span>Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>按商家位置划分的Shopify收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31774ad4abd47199de636274620d5302\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 按商家位置划分的收入同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although U.S. merchants continue to be SHOP’s most important revenue driver (66.7% of FY 20 revenue), the company has also experienced rapid growth in other geographical markets, particularly in its Rest of World segment. As we can observe from the above chart, U.S. growth has already been trending down pre-pandemic, while Rest of World growth has continued to grow rapidly and consistently.</p><p><blockquote>虽然美国商家仍然是 SHOP 最重要的收入驱动力（占 20 财年收入的 66.7%），但该公司在其他地区市场，尤其是在世界其他地区，也经历了快速增长。从上图可以看出，美国的经济增长在大流行之前就已经呈下降趋势，而世界其他地区的经济增长则继续快速、持续地增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39fd8a089cc64ae41da56ef8a8ddafe3\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"597\"><span>Amazon Revenue Segments YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊收入部门同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We also observed this from AMZN’s International segment growth where although it has been somewhat of a laggard in previous quarters, it has started to outpace North America’s growth for the last 2 quarters, culminating in Q1’21 YoY growth of 60.4% for the International segment against 39.5% for the North America segment.</p><p><blockquote>我们还从亚马逊国际业务的增长中观察到了这一点，尽管亚马逊在前几个季度有所落后，但在过去两个季度中，亚马逊国际业务的增长率已开始超过北美业务的增长率，最终在 21 年第一季度，亚马逊国际业务的同比增长率为 60.4%，而北美业务的同比增长率为 39.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7909e7fdd6bf5972121d1a9a70f75a46\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue 2017 to 2025. Data Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2017年至2025年美国零售电子商务收入。数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c99e9a30fb46d3d1f22e77b72c40740\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue YoY Growth. Data Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国零售电子商务收入同比增长。数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could see from the above why ramping up growth internationally is so important for Shopify to continue delivering its expected spectacular growth rates. Even though Shopify merchants sell internationally, the fact that the SFN currently serves only businesses whosell to U.S. customersindicates the significance of the U.S. consumers to Shopify’s ecommerce revenues. However, as the growth of U.S. retail e-commerce revenue is expected to slow down over time (from 8.7% YoY in 2021 to 2.7% YoY by 2025), companies like Shopify who rely on high growth to justify its valuation must either take market share away from its key competitors or look for growth outside of the United States.</p><p><blockquote>从上面我们可以看出，为什么提高国际增长对于 Shopify 继续实现其预期的惊人增长率如此重要。尽管 Shopify 商家在国际上销售产品，但 SFN 目前只为向美国客户销售产品的企业提供服务，这一事实表明了美国消费者对 Shopify 电子商务收入的重要性。然而，由于美国零售电子商务收入的增长预计将随着时间的推移而放缓（从 2021 年的同比 8.7% 降至 2025 年的同比 2.7%），像 Shopify 这样依赖高增长来证明其估值合理性的公司必须要么从其主要竞争对手那里夺取市场份额，要么寻求美国以外的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60f4fcd9254552bdd46a6d9c613384d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Value of Southeast Asia e-commerce market. Data Source: Google, Temasek Holdings, Bain &amp; Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>东南亚电子商务市场价值。数据来源：谷歌、淡马锡控股、贝恩公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For example, if we look across to Southeast Asia, and compare the growth rates of the Southeast Asian market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 22.6%) and the United States market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 3.73%), it’s easy to see which market will be the key driver of e-commerce growth in the near future. There’s no doubt that the U.S. market remains an extremely important market given its size, however much of the future growth will likely come from overseas markets. Therefore, it’s important that Shopify continues to drive growth across other geographical markets.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果我们放眼东南亚，比较东南亚市场（2020 年至 2025 年预计 5 年复合年增长率：22.6%）和美国市场（2020 年至 2025 年预计 5 年复合年增长率：3.73%）的增长率，就不难看出哪个市场将成为不久的将来电子商务增长的主要驱动力。毫无疑问，鉴于美国市场的规模，它仍然是一个极其重要的市场，但未来的大部分增长可能来自海外市场。因此，Shopify 继续推动其他地区市场的增长非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let's Bring in Sea Limited</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Let's Bring in Sea Limited</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40fe31435cdc50217df4172982b7354\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"821\"><span>Sea Limited &amp; SHOP EBIT Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sea Limited &amp; SHOP EBIT 利润率、毛利率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In order to look at Shopify’s growth opportunities in the Southeast Asian market, I thought it would be important to first consider the most important e-commerce player in that region: Sea Limited (SE), which I had previouslycovered in detail in an article hererecently.</p><p><blockquote>为了了解 Shopify 在东南亚市场的增长机会，我认为首先要考虑该地区最重要的电子商务企业： Sea Limited (SE)，我曾在最近的一篇文章中详细介绍过它。</blockquote></p><p> It’s easy to see how SHOP’s more profitable business model on relying on subscriptions and merchant solutions drove a much higher EBIT margin as compared to SE’s online marketplace platform: Shopee, which is currently being supported by the company’s profitable Garena gaming segment.</p><p><blockquote>不难看出，与 SE 的在线市场平台 Shopee 相比，SHOP 依靠订阅和商家解决方案的盈利能力更强的商业模式是如何推动息税前利润率高得多的： Shopee 目前由该公司盈利的 Garena 游戏部门提供支持。</blockquote></p><p> Despite that, Sea has still been able to drive significant revenue growth and operating efficiencies such that its EBIT margins have seen remarkable improvement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Sea 仍然能够推动显着的收入增长和运营效率，因此其息税前利润率有了显着改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788d4d4399cbdeb497792a1f90868e47\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"714\"><span>EBIT Margin Forecast. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>息税前利润率预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we modelled SE and SHOP’s EBIT margins moving forward, we could see how both companies’ improving cost efficiencies, notably from the reduction in SG&amp;A margins, would help both companies to continue improving their operating margins over time.</p><p><blockquote>当我们对 SE 和 SHOP 未来的息税前利润率进行建模时，我们可以看到两家公司成本效率的提高，尤其是 SG&amp;A 利润率的降低，将如何帮助两家公司随着时间的推移继续提高营业利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f94e62035fe5fc04eaeb95b7d760df28\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"703\"><span>SE and SHOP Projected Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE 和 SHOP 预计无杠杆自由现金流利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This is where their SE is expected to pull ahead. In modelling their FCF, SE is expected to generate so much FCF from its revenue growth and operating profits that the company looks increasingly like a massive cash flow machine moving forward. It’s not as if SHOP looks sloppy, but when compared to SE’s FCF margins, they certainly don’t look as impressive though.</p><p><blockquote>这就是他们的SE有望领先的地方。在对其自由现金流进行建模时，SE 预计将从其收入增长和营业利润中产生如此多的自由现金流，以至于该公司看起来越来越像一台向前发展的大型现金流机器。这并不是说 SHOP 看起来很草率，但与 SE 的 FCF 利润率相比，它们看起来肯定不那么令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa625e12090dfc0f64e439c278b5b9d0\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"649\"><span>SE and SHOP Projected Revenue CAGR (5Y, 10Y), 10Y Projected Av. Unlevered FCF Margin, EV / FY+1 Rev. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE 和商店预计收入 CAGR（5 年、10 年）、10 年预计 Av。无杠杆自由现金流保证金，EV / FY+1 修订版。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, when we bring their current valuation levels into the picture (EV / FY+1 Rev), we could see that SE’s current valuation (16.3x) looks so much more attractive than SHOP’s (32.7x), while being able to convert that rapid revenue growth into higher FCF margins. It should also be noted that I have modelled both companies to continue their blockbuster performances: SE (5Y CAGR of 44.3%, 10Y CAGR of 26.7%), SHOP (5Y CAGR 41.4%, 10Y CAGR 32.3%).</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，当我们将它们目前的估值水平（EV / FY+1 Rev）纳入考量时，我们可以看到 SE 目前的估值（16.3 倍）比 SHOP 的估值（32.7 倍）更具吸引力，同时还能将快速增长的收入转化为更高的自由现金流利润率。还应该注意的是，我对两家公司进行了建模，以延续他们的一鸣惊人的业绩：SE（5年CAGR 44.3%，10年CAGR 26.7%），SHOP（5年CAGR 41.4%，10年CAGR 32.3%）。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, for investors who would like a share of that rapid international growth in the Southeast Asian market coupled with a leading cash flow generating gaming segment, you should look no further than SE.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于那些希望分享东南亚市场快速增长的国际增长以及领先的现金流产生游戏领域的投资者来说，您应该看看SE。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df93eabc2cf51bdca0056071317076a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market share of e-commerce software platforms in the U.S. in 2021 Data Source: Builtwith</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年美国电子商务软件平台市场份额数据来源：Builtwith</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2485bbbc639e9512e106f6dd1ab48ff\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Unique visitors to the most popular online retailers in SEA in 2020. Data Source: iPrice Group, SimilarWeb, Marketing in Asia</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年SEA最受欢迎的在线零售商的独立访客。数据来源：iPrice Group、SimilarWeb、Marketing in Asia</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider the competitive economics in the U.S. against Southeast Asia, it becomes very clear. Shopify faces strong competition within its software platform segment, without accounting for Amazon’s prowess as well. Even though I expect Shopify to continue its rapid expansion, I believe that it faces more intensive competitive threats than Sea Limited as the pie in the U.S. is expected to grow slower over time. SHOP needs almost perfect execution every quarter to justify its lofty valuations.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑美国与东南亚的竞争经济时，这一点变得非常清楚。Shopify 在软件平台领域面临着激烈的竞争，这还不包括亚马逊的实力。尽管我预计 Shopify 将继续快速扩张，但我相信它面临着比 Sea Limited 更激烈的竞争威胁，因为随着时间的推移，美国的市场份额预计会增长放缓。SHOP 每个季度都需要近乎完美的执行来证明其高估值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> As compared to SE, it is clearly the dominant online marketplace now in Southeast Asia by a fairly large margin, and its prowess and scale is also growing, further stretching the distance from its competitors. Coupled with its ShopeePay payments platform, it also creates a flywheel effect similar to what Shopify Payments does for Shopify. The leadership in Southeast Asia is surely Sea’s to lose, and there’s so much potential growth that the company can capture in this region as the undisputed leader. When we consider Shopify’s valuations against SE’s it looks quite clear SE’s valuation looks more attractive now, with stronger market leadership and arguably higher potential growth.</p><p><blockquote>与SE相比，它显然是目前东南亚占主导地位的在线市场，其实力和规模也在增长，进一步拉近了与竞争对手的距离。再加上其ShopeePay支付平台，它还创造了一种飞轮效应，类似于Shopify支付为Shopify所做的事情。Sea 在东南亚的领导地位肯定会失去，作为无可争议的领导者，该公司可以在该地区抓住巨大的增长潜力。当我们将 Shopify 的估值与 SE 的估值进行比较时，SE 的估值现在看起来更有吸引力，拥有更强的市场领导地位和更高的潜在增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9782afa86bafbd3d2e54e41e0c1d13\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"794\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SHOP’s price action has been stuck somewhat in a large consolidation phase since Oct 20, with the bull trap set in Feb 21 at around the $1500 level. Support was found at around the $1000 level, with further support at around the $835 level for investors who wish to add further into SHOP. It’s important to note that despite SHOP’s lofty valuations, its long term uptrend bias has never been threatened, and I expect this to carry on moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>自 10 月 20 日以来，SHOP 的价格走势一直处于大盘整阶段，牛市陷阱于 2 月 21 日设定在 1500 美元左右。支撑位在 1000 美元左右，对于希望进一步增持的投资者来说，支撑位在 835 美元左右。值得注意的是，尽管 SHOP 的估值很高，但其长期上升趋势从未受到威胁，我预计这种情况将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping it all up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Although Shopify is one of the most expensive high quality e-commerce stocks right now, it’s also expected to generate rapid growth ahead with its ever improving ecosystem for its merchants. Coupled with one of the strongest long term uptrend biases that I have seen for stocks (It didn’t lose its key support levels even during the COVID-19 bear market), I believe this puts SHOP in a strong position as a stock to add aggressively at the next big dip.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Shopify 是目前最昂贵的优质电子商务股票之一，但凭借其不断完善的商家生态系统，预计它也将在未来实现快速增长。再加上我所见过的股票最强烈的长期上升趋势偏差之一（即使在 COVID-19 熊市期间，它也没有失去关键支撑位），我相信这使得 SHOP 作为一只在下一次大跌中积极上涨的股票处于有利地位。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433111-shopify-an-expensive-stock-that-keeps-delivering\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433111-shopify-an-expensive-stock-that-keeps-delivering","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167651093","content_text":"Summary\n\nShopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.\nThe company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and International markets to further drive its growth story.\nIts technical picture also shows a stock that has always been strongly supported along its long-term uptrend.\nI attempt to discuss the key aspects of its operating performances and why investors should also focus on international expansion as a key aspect of e-commerce growth.\n\nPhoto by JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nShopify (SHOP) is one of the most hotly debated e-commerce stocks because of its explosive revenue growth rates and its high valuations. The company continues to demonstrate both stellar topline and bottomline growth while also improving its cash flow margins. The management’s ability to monetize its merchants through Shopify Payments and its suite of merchant solutions is a masterstroke that shows the capability of the management to be able to continue executing its high growth strategies with aplomb moving forward. Despite its relatively high valuation levels, it also remains a very strong stock from the technical point of view, so bullish investors may consider adding it at the next dip.\nShopify: Defying Amazon’s Valuation Logic\nShopify’s critics have often questioned the logic of investing in Shopify when you can invest in Amazon (AMZN) for a fraction of its expensive valuation. Yet, investors in SHOP continue to defy “common valuation logic” by pointing to Shopify’s incredible growth rates.\nSHOP and AMZN LTM Revenue Growth Trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nAMZN and SHOP LTM Revenue YoY Growth & Revenue 3Y CAGR. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nOver the last 5 years, SHOP’s revenue growth has easily surpassed AMZN at every reporting quarter, and the pandemic fueled e-commerce tailwind also drove higher growth to SHOP as its LTM revenue YoY growth read 99.6% as compared to AMZN’s “meagre” 41.5%. Moreover, SHOP’s revenue 3Y CAGR of 63.3% also easily bested AMZN’s 3Y CAGR of 29.5%. So clearly, SHOP’s growth has been truly phenomenal.\nShopify's Compelling Merchant Solutions Growth Drivers\nShopify Revenue Segments. Data Source: Company Filings\nIn recent years, we could see that even though Shopify’s revenue growth has been pretty much broad-based, its merchant solutions segment has been taking up an increasingly large contribution in the company’s revenue base and have transformed itself into Shopify’s most important revenue driver, accounting for 67.6% of Q1’21 revenue. The shift towards increasing the revenue base of merchant solutions has seen the company continuing to roll out multiple new merchant solutions initiatives and services to further monetize the company’s merchant base and improve the strength of its ecosystem, therefore enhancing its “stickiness” and retention over time.\nShopify Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nInvestors should be careful not to get too excited with the pulled forward growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that we observed in FY 20 as seen above. The management has already strongly emphasized in their guidance that they do not expect this to repeat, and expects YoY growth to normalize to levels seen before the pandemic, which in this case is estimated to be somewhere north of 50%. Even though growth is expected to normalize moving forward, it’s not as if SHOP has been growing slowly and more importantly the pulled forward growth last year has allowed SHOP to dramatically increase its merchants growth onto its platform for future monetization within Shopify’s robust ecosystem.\nShopify Segment Gross Margins. Data Source: Company Filings\nAlthough Q1’21’s gross margin was higher than recent historical trends, we should not expect this to carry on moving forward. The management pointed out clearly that the company is focusing its efforts to continue improving its robust ecosystem for its merchants such as developing the Shopify Fulfillment Network [SFN], as it expects that the merchant solutions segment to continue driving its revenue growth even if it means lesser gross margins moving forward.\nShopify Payments is the Key to Unlock the Benefits from GMV Growth\nDespite that, the company clarified that as Shopify Payments continue to see increased adoption and usage among its merchants, the company expects to see significant improvement to its SG&A efficiencies as Shopify Payments has a much lesser impact on SG&A margins, therefore leading to improvement on operating efficiencies as Shopify Payments scale up further.\nSHOP EBIT Margin, SG&A Margin, R&D Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nClearly, investors could see that despite posting a relatively high LTM gross margin profile in Q1’21: 53.5%, it has only recently turned LTM EBIT profitable (Q1’21: 10.5%), thanks to the company’s solid improvement with its operating efficiencies even though the gross margin profile has remained stable over time, even with the pulled forward growth from COVID-19 last year.\nWe could see a consistently declining LTM SG&A margin trend reaching 24.8% in Q1’21 from a high of 44.1% in Q4’16, signifying a huge improvement. Therefore, I’m confident that SHOP would continue to deliver improved operating efficiencies as it scales up its SFN to further strengthen its ecosystem, creating even more value and synergies for its merchants and their customers.\nSHOP’s GMV and GPV Analysis. Data Source: Company Filings\nSHOP’s GMV and GPV YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nWe could clearly see the increasingly important role of Shopify Payments for its merchants as more and more merchants are using Shopify Payments over time as GPV growth has outpaced GMV growth consistently, with Q1’21 reading coming in at 137% YoY growth and 114.4% YoY growth, respectively.\nSHOP GPV as a % of GMV. Data Source: Company Filings\nWith the increased adoption and usage of Shopify Payments, in Q1’21 GPV formed 46.4% of GMV, from a low of 37.5% of GMV just 3 years ago. I believe Shopify is moving in the right direction to continue driving more and more merchants towards Shopify Payments as it creates a powerful flywheel to unlock even more and more of the expected massive GMV growth moving forward.\nShopify MRR. Data Source: Company Filings\nShopify MRR YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nThe sustained improvement in GPV growth has come at an important juncture as SHOP had already been experiencing slower MRR growth pre-pandemic (from 36% in Q1’19 to 21% in Q2’20). Therefore, by strategically being able to monetize its merchants in other areas has helped to manage this slowdown, while at the same time opened up many new revenue opportunities for Merchant Solutions to help drive the company’s future growth.\nThe Importance of International Expansion\nShopify Revenue by Merchant Location. Data Source: Company Filings\nShopify Revenue by Merchant Location YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nAlthough U.S. merchants continue to be SHOP’s most important revenue driver (66.7% of FY 20 revenue), the company has also experienced rapid growth in other geographical markets, particularly in its Rest of World segment. As we can observe from the above chart, U.S. growth has already been trending down pre-pandemic, while Rest of World growth has continued to grow rapidly and consistently.\nAmazon Revenue Segments YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nWe also observed this from AMZN’s International segment growth where although it has been somewhat of a laggard in previous quarters, it has started to outpace North America’s growth for the last 2 quarters, culminating in Q1’21 YoY growth of 60.4% for the International segment against 39.5% for the North America segment.\nU.S. Retail e-commerce revenue 2017 to 2025. Data Source: Statista\nU.S. Retail e-commerce revenue YoY Growth. Data Source: Statista\nWe could see from the above why ramping up growth internationally is so important for Shopify to continue delivering its expected spectacular growth rates. Even though Shopify merchants sell internationally, the fact that the SFN currently serves only businesses whosell to U.S. customersindicates the significance of the U.S. consumers to Shopify’s ecommerce revenues. However, as the growth of U.S. retail e-commerce revenue is expected to slow down over time (from 8.7% YoY in 2021 to 2.7% YoY by 2025), companies like Shopify who rely on high growth to justify its valuation must either take market share away from its key competitors or look for growth outside of the United States.\nValue of Southeast Asia e-commerce market. Data Source: Google, Temasek Holdings, Bain & Company\nFor example, if we look across to Southeast Asia, and compare the growth rates of the Southeast Asian market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 22.6%) and the United States market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 3.73%), it’s easy to see which market will be the key driver of e-commerce growth in the near future. There’s no doubt that the U.S. market remains an extremely important market given its size, however much of the future growth will likely come from overseas markets. Therefore, it’s important that Shopify continues to drive growth across other geographical markets.\nLet's Bring in Sea Limited\nSea Limited & SHOP EBIT Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nIn order to look at Shopify’s growth opportunities in the Southeast Asian market, I thought it would be important to first consider the most important e-commerce player in that region: Sea Limited (SE), which I had previouslycovered in detail in an article hererecently.\nIt’s easy to see how SHOP’s more profitable business model on relying on subscriptions and merchant solutions drove a much higher EBIT margin as compared to SE’s online marketplace platform: Shopee, which is currently being supported by the company’s profitable Garena gaming segment.\nDespite that, Sea has still been able to drive significant revenue growth and operating efficiencies such that its EBIT margins have seen remarkable improvement.\nEBIT Margin Forecast. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we modelled SE and SHOP’s EBIT margins moving forward, we could see how both companies’ improving cost efficiencies, notably from the reduction in SG&A margins, would help both companies to continue improving their operating margins over time.\nSE and SHOP Projected Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nThis is where their SE is expected to pull ahead. In modelling their FCF, SE is expected to generate so much FCF from its revenue growth and operating profits that the company looks increasingly like a massive cash flow machine moving forward. It’s not as if SHOP looks sloppy, but when compared to SE’s FCF margins, they certainly don’t look as impressive though.\nSE and SHOP Projected Revenue CAGR (5Y, 10Y), 10Y Projected Av. Unlevered FCF Margin, EV / FY+1 Rev. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nMore importantly, when we bring their current valuation levels into the picture (EV / FY+1 Rev), we could see that SE’s current valuation (16.3x) looks so much more attractive than SHOP’s (32.7x), while being able to convert that rapid revenue growth into higher FCF margins. It should also be noted that I have modelled both companies to continue their blockbuster performances: SE (5Y CAGR of 44.3%, 10Y CAGR of 26.7%), SHOP (5Y CAGR 41.4%, 10Y CAGR 32.3%).\nTherefore, for investors who would like a share of that rapid international growth in the Southeast Asian market coupled with a leading cash flow generating gaming segment, you should look no further than SE.\nMarket share of e-commerce software platforms in the U.S. in 2021 Data Source: Builtwith\nUnique visitors to the most popular online retailers in SEA in 2020. Data Source: iPrice Group, SimilarWeb, Marketing in Asia\nWhen we consider the competitive economics in the U.S. against Southeast Asia, it becomes very clear. Shopify faces strong competition within its software platform segment, without accounting for Amazon’s prowess as well. Even though I expect Shopify to continue its rapid expansion, I believe that it faces more intensive competitive threats than Sea Limited as the pie in the U.S. is expected to grow slower over time. SHOP needs almost perfect execution every quarter to justify its lofty valuations.\nAs compared to SE, it is clearly the dominant online marketplace now in Southeast Asia by a fairly large margin, and its prowess and scale is also growing, further stretching the distance from its competitors. Coupled with its ShopeePay payments platform, it also creates a flywheel effect similar to what Shopify Payments does for Shopify. The leadership in Southeast Asia is surely Sea’s to lose, and there’s so much potential growth that the company can capture in this region as the undisputed leader. When we consider Shopify’s valuations against SE’s it looks quite clear SE’s valuation looks more attractive now, with stronger market leadership and arguably higher potential growth.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nSHOP’s price action has been stuck somewhat in a large consolidation phase since Oct 20, with the bull trap set in Feb 21 at around the $1500 level. Support was found at around the $1000 level, with further support at around the $835 level for investors who wish to add further into SHOP. It’s important to note that despite SHOP’s lofty valuations, its long term uptrend bias has never been threatened, and I expect this to carry on moving forward.\nWrapping it all up\nAlthough Shopify is one of the most expensive high quality e-commerce stocks right now, it’s also expected to generate rapid growth ahead with its ever improving ecosystem for its merchants. Coupled with one of the strongest long term uptrend biases that I have seen for stocks (It didn’t lose its key support levels even during the COVID-19 bear market), I believe this puts SHOP in a strong position as a stock to add aggressively at the next big dip.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SHOP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118195433,"gmtCreate":1622722257122,"gmtModify":1634098769119,"author":{"id":"3582676570400075","authorId":"3582676570400075","name":"meowboss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2aed689e7f9f2a0a8a4e5dabf7482e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582676570400075","authorIdStr":"3582676570400075"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Come and like and comment meow&nbsp;","listText":"Come and like and comment meow&nbsp;","text":"Come and like and comment meow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118195433","repostId":"2140542610","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140542610","kind":"live","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622718376,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2140542610?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-03 19:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Entertainment Holdings Files To Sell Up To 11.55Mln Shares<blockquote>AMC院线控股公司申请出售最多1155万股股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140542610","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"AMC tumbles 10% after new stock sale announcement, wipes out 20% premarket rally.AMC Entertainment s","content":"<p>AMC tumbles 10% after new stock sale announcement, wipes out 20% premarket rally.</p><p><blockquote>新股发售公告后，AMC股价下跌10%，抹去了盘前20%的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df04643ab4f4847afdb5d9d3285e25fa\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>AMC Entertainment&nbsp;shares erased a 20% rally and plunged double digits in premarket trading on Thursday following a stock sale announcement.</p><p><blockquote>在宣布出售股票后，AMC院线股价周四在盘前交易中回吐了20%的涨幅并暴跌两位数。</blockquote></p><p>The meme stock last traded down 10% after soaring more than 20% earlier Thursday before markets opened.</p><p><blockquote>该meme股票在周四早些时候开盘前飙升超过20%后，最后下跌10%。</blockquote></p><p>AMC said in a regulatory filing that it may offer and sell from time to time up to an aggregate of 11.55 million shares of its Class&nbsp;A common stock.</p><p><blockquote>AMC在一份监管文件中表示，它可能会不时发行和出售总计1155万股A类普通股。</blockquote></p><p>The move comes after AMC&nbsp;soared 95% in the regular trading session&nbsp;Wednesday to close at an all-time high of $62.55. Its previous closing record of $35.86 was reached in 2015, according to FactSet data.</p><p><blockquote>此前，AMC在周三的常规交易时段飙升95%，收于62.55美元的历史高点。FactSet数据显示，其此前的收盘纪录为35.86美元，是在2015年创下的。</blockquote></p><p>AMC’s stock spiked as it hit an intraday high of $72.62, well above its previous intraday record of $36.72.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股价飙升，触及72.62美元的盘中高点，远高于此前36.72美元的盘中纪录。</blockquote></p><p>In a similar occurrence seen in January with the meme stocks like GameStop, defiant short-sellers have increased their bets against AMC shares over the last month, possibly fueling the move higher. About 18% of the AMC shares available for trading are still sold short through Wednesday, according to S3 Partners.</p><p><blockquote>与1月份游戏驿站等模因股票发生的类似情况一样，目中无人的卖空者在上个月增加了对AMC股票的押注，这可能会推动股价走高。据S3 Partners称，截至周三，约18%可供交易的AMC股票仍被卖空。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday, short-sellers lost $2.8 billion as the stock surged, according to S3. That brings their year-to-date losses to more than $5 billion, according to S3.</p><p><blockquote>据S3称，周三，随着该股飙升，卖空者损失了28亿美元。据S3称，这使得他们今年迄今的亏损超过50亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Short sellers like hedge funds borrow the stock from an investment bank and sell it in the hopes of buying it back at a lower price and returning the shares, pocketing the difference. However, when a stock surges higher, a so-called short squeeze can occur where investors are forced to buy back the stock to cut their losses.</p><p><blockquote>对冲基金等卖空者从投资银行借入股票并出售，希望以更低的价格回购并返还股票，从而将差价收入囊中。然而，当股票飙升时，可能会发生所谓的轧空，投资者被迫回购股票以减少损失。</blockquote></p><p>Trading was halted several times Wednesday as shares were up more than 100% at one point. At the end of the day, more than 710 million shares exchanged hands. That’s nearly double the number of AMC’s shares outstanding. The company’s 30-day average volume is just 143 million shares.</p><p><blockquote>周三，由于股价一度上涨超过100%，交易多次停牌。截至收盘，超过7.1亿股换手。这几乎是AMC已发行股票数量的两倍。该公司30天平均成交量仅为1.43亿股。</blockquote></p><p>Retail investors — many active on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum — led the AMC rally, and AMC executives have taken note. On Wednesday, the company announced a&nbsp;new portal to connect with individual investors&nbsp;and offered free popcorn, exclusive screenings and other perks to those who hold its stock.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者（其中许多人活跃在Reddit的WallStreetBets论坛上）引领了AMC的涨势，AMC高管也注意到了这一点。周三，该公司宣布推出一个与个人投资者联系的新门户网站，并向持有其股票的人提供免费爆米花、独家放映和其他福利。</blockquote></p><p>JPMorgan noted that in the last week, retail order flow into AMC jumped to $583 million, 6.9 standard deviations above the average level of the last one year. According to their quantitative strategy, this kind of imbalance can lead to more outperformance by the stock in coming weeks.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通指出，上周流入AMC的零售订单跃升至5.83亿美元，比过去一年的平均水平高出6.9个标准差。根据他们的量化策略，这种不平衡可能会导致该股在未来几周内表现更加优异。</blockquote></p><p>AMC shares are up 2850% so far this year, bringing its market capitalization to more than $31 billion. That makes it worth more than stocks like Delta Air Lines, State Street and Best Buy.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，AMC股价已上涨2850%，市值超过310亿美元。这使得它的价值超过了达美航空、道富银行和百思买等股票。</blockquote></p><p>Wednesday’s wild trading activity comes even after an investment firm reportedly sold off its stake in the company. On Tuesday, AMC revealed it&nbsp;sold 8.5 million newly issued shares to Mudrick Capital, the latest in a series of capital raises for the stock. The hedge fund later&nbsp;sold all of its AMC stock for a profitthat same day, according to&nbsp;Bloomberg News.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，一家投资公司出售了其在该公司的股份，周三的疯狂交易活动仍在继续。周二，AMC透露向Mudrick Capital出售了850万股新发行的股票，这是该股一系列融资中的最新一次。据彭博社报道，该对冲基金后来在同一天出售了其所有AMC股票以获取利润。</blockquote></p><p>Most Wall Street analysts believe AMC shares will plummet eventually. The average 12-month target price of analysts is $5.11, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>大多数华尔街分析师认为AMC股价最终将暴跌。FactSet的数据显示，分析师的平均12个月目标价为5.11美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Entertainment Holdings Files To Sell Up To 11.55Mln Shares<blockquote>AMC院线控股公司申请出售最多1155万股股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Entertainment Holdings Files To Sell Up To 11.55Mln Shares<blockquote>AMC院线控股公司申请出售最多1155万股股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-03 19:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC tumbles 10% after new stock sale announcement, wipes out 20% premarket rally.</p><p><blockquote>新股发售公告后，AMC股价下跌10%，抹去了盘前20%的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df04643ab4f4847afdb5d9d3285e25fa\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>AMC Entertainment&nbsp;shares erased a 20% rally and plunged double digits in premarket trading on Thursday following a stock sale announcement.</p><p><blockquote>在宣布出售股票后，AMC院线股价周四在盘前交易中回吐了20%的涨幅并暴跌两位数。</blockquote></p><p>The meme stock last traded down 10% after soaring more than 20% earlier Thursday before markets opened.</p><p><blockquote>该meme股票在周四早些时候开盘前飙升超过20%后，最后下跌10%。</blockquote></p><p>AMC said in a regulatory filing that it may offer and sell from time to time up to an aggregate of 11.55 million shares of its Class&nbsp;A common stock.</p><p><blockquote>AMC在一份监管文件中表示，它可能会不时发行和出售总计1155万股A类普通股。</blockquote></p><p>The move comes after AMC&nbsp;soared 95% in the regular trading session&nbsp;Wednesday to close at an all-time high of $62.55. Its previous closing record of $35.86 was reached in 2015, according to FactSet data.</p><p><blockquote>此前，AMC在周三的常规交易时段飙升95%，收于62.55美元的历史高点。FactSet数据显示，其此前的收盘纪录为35.86美元，是在2015年创下的。</blockquote></p><p>AMC’s stock spiked as it hit an intraday high of $72.62, well above its previous intraday record of $36.72.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股价飙升，触及72.62美元的盘中高点，远高于此前36.72美元的盘中纪录。</blockquote></p><p>In a similar occurrence seen in January with the meme stocks like GameStop, defiant short-sellers have increased their bets against AMC shares over the last month, possibly fueling the move higher. About 18% of the AMC shares available for trading are still sold short through Wednesday, according to S3 Partners.</p><p><blockquote>与1月份游戏驿站等模因股票发生的类似情况一样，目中无人的卖空者在上个月增加了对AMC股票的押注，这可能会推动股价走高。据S3 Partners称，截至周三，约18%可供交易的AMC股票仍被卖空。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday, short-sellers lost $2.8 billion as the stock surged, according to S3. That brings their year-to-date losses to more than $5 billion, according to S3.</p><p><blockquote>据S3称，周三，随着该股飙升，卖空者损失了28亿美元。据S3称，这使得他们今年迄今的亏损超过50亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Short sellers like hedge funds borrow the stock from an investment bank and sell it in the hopes of buying it back at a lower price and returning the shares, pocketing the difference. However, when a stock surges higher, a so-called short squeeze can occur where investors are forced to buy back the stock to cut their losses.</p><p><blockquote>对冲基金等卖空者从投资银行借入股票并出售，希望以更低的价格回购并返还股票，从而将差价收入囊中。然而，当股票飙升时，可能会发生所谓的轧空，投资者被迫回购股票以减少损失。</blockquote></p><p>Trading was halted several times Wednesday as shares were up more than 100% at one point. At the end of the day, more than 710 million shares exchanged hands. That’s nearly double the number of AMC’s shares outstanding. The company’s 30-day average volume is just 143 million shares.</p><p><blockquote>周三，由于股价一度上涨超过100%，交易多次停牌。截至收盘，超过7.1亿股换手。这几乎是AMC已发行股票数量的两倍。该公司30天平均成交量仅为1.43亿股。</blockquote></p><p>Retail investors — many active on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum — led the AMC rally, and AMC executives have taken note. On Wednesday, the company announced a&nbsp;new portal to connect with individual investors&nbsp;and offered free popcorn, exclusive screenings and other perks to those who hold its stock.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者（其中许多人活跃在Reddit的WallStreetBets论坛上）引领了AMC的涨势，AMC高管也注意到了这一点。周三，该公司宣布推出一个与个人投资者联系的新门户网站，并向持有其股票的人提供免费爆米花、独家放映和其他福利。</blockquote></p><p>JPMorgan noted that in the last week, retail order flow into AMC jumped to $583 million, 6.9 standard deviations above the average level of the last one year. According to their quantitative strategy, this kind of imbalance can lead to more outperformance by the stock in coming weeks.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通指出，上周流入AMC的零售订单跃升至5.83亿美元，比过去一年的平均水平高出6.9个标准差。根据他们的量化策略，这种不平衡可能会导致该股在未来几周内表现更加优异。</blockquote></p><p>AMC shares are up 2850% so far this year, bringing its market capitalization to more than $31 billion. That makes it worth more than stocks like Delta Air Lines, State Street and Best Buy.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，AMC股价已上涨2850%，市值超过310亿美元。这使得它的价值超过了达美航空、道富银行和百思买等股票。</blockquote></p><p>Wednesday’s wild trading activity comes even after an investment firm reportedly sold off its stake in the company. On Tuesday, AMC revealed it&nbsp;sold 8.5 million newly issued shares to Mudrick Capital, the latest in a series of capital raises for the stock. The hedge fund later&nbsp;sold all of its AMC stock for a profitthat same day, according to&nbsp;Bloomberg News.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，一家投资公司出售了其在该公司的股份，周三的疯狂交易活动仍在继续。周二，AMC透露向Mudrick Capital出售了850万股新发行的股票，这是该股一系列融资中的最新一次。据彭博社报道，该对冲基金后来在同一天出售了其所有AMC股票以获取利润。</blockquote></p><p>Most Wall Street analysts believe AMC shares will plummet eventually. The average 12-month target price of analysts is $5.11, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>大多数华尔街分析师认为AMC股价最终将暴跌。FactSet的数据显示，分析师的平均12个月目标价为5.11美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140542610","content_text":"AMC tumbles 10% after new stock sale announcement, wipes out 20% premarket rally.AMC Entertainment shares erased a 20% rally and plunged double digits in premarket trading on Thursday following a stock sale announcement.The meme stock last traded down 10% after soaring more than 20% earlier Thursday before markets opened.AMC said in a regulatory filing that it may offer and sell from time to time up to an aggregate of 11.55 million shares of its Class A common stock.The move comes after AMC soared 95% in the regular trading session Wednesday to close at an all-time high of $62.55. Its previous closing record of $35.86 was reached in 2015, according to FactSet data.AMC’s stock spiked as it hit an intraday high of $72.62, well above its previous intraday record of $36.72.In a similar occurrence seen in January with the meme stocks like GameStop, defiant short-sellers have increased their bets against AMC shares over the last month, possibly fueling the move higher. About 18% of the AMC shares available for trading are still sold short through Wednesday, according to S3 Partners.On Wednesday, short-sellers lost $2.8 billion as the stock surged, according to S3. That brings their year-to-date losses to more than $5 billion, according to S3.Short sellers like hedge funds borrow the stock from an investment bank and sell it in the hopes of buying it back at a lower price and returning the shares, pocketing the difference. However, when a stock surges higher, a so-called short squeeze can occur where investors are forced to buy back the stock to cut their losses.Trading was halted several times Wednesday as shares were up more than 100% at one point. At the end of the day, more than 710 million shares exchanged hands. That’s nearly double the number of AMC’s shares outstanding. The company’s 30-day average volume is just 143 million shares.Retail investors — many active on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum — led the AMC rally, and AMC executives have taken note. On Wednesday, the company announced a new portal to connect with individual investors and offered free popcorn, exclusive screenings and other perks to those who hold its stock.JPMorgan noted that in the last week, retail order flow into AMC jumped to $583 million, 6.9 standard deviations above the average level of the last one year. According to their quantitative strategy, this kind of imbalance can lead to more outperformance by the stock in coming weeks.AMC shares are up 2850% so far this year, bringing its market capitalization to more than $31 billion. That makes it worth more than stocks like Delta Air Lines, State Street and Best Buy.Wednesday’s wild trading activity comes even after an investment firm reportedly sold off its stake in the company. On Tuesday, AMC revealed it sold 8.5 million newly issued shares to Mudrick Capital, the latest in a series of capital raises for the stock. The hedge fund later sold all of its AMC stock for a profitthat same day, according to Bloomberg News.Most Wall Street analysts believe AMC shares will plummet eventually. The average 12-month target price of analysts is $5.11, according to FactSet.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113204308,"gmtCreate":1622616562004,"gmtModify":1634099898673,"author":{"id":"3582676570400075","authorId":"3582676570400075","name":"meowboss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2aed689e7f9f2a0a8a4e5dabf7482e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582676570400075","authorIdStr":"3582676570400075"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment, good news TQ&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment, good news TQ&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment, good news TQ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113204308","repostId":"1182886492","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}