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Aledecha
Aledecha
·
07-29
“史上最强”是海力士，“现代最强”是谁呢
"史上最强"之后，海力士开始难超预期了
SK海力士二季度营收79.32万亿韩元、营业利润暴增557%，利润率76.3%刷新存储业历史纪录，毛利率83%已超越英伟达——却成了本轮超级周期中唯一miss共识的巨头。根源在于：HBM霸主地位反噬，50%收入被LTA长协锁定，现货狂涨时只能眼看三星、美光收割ASP弹性。这不是经营恶化，而是一场"用确定性换弹性"的主动选择。下半年HBM4放量，才是判断这笔交易值不值的真正答案。
"史上最强"之后，海力士开始难超预期了
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13:35","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"\"史上最强\"之后，海力士开始难超预期了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655685347","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"SK海力士二季度营收79.32万亿韩元、营业利润暴增557%，利润率76.3%刷新存储业历史纪录，毛利率83%已超越英伟达——却成了本轮超级周期中唯一miss共识的巨头。根源在于：HBM霸主地位反噬，50%收入被LTA长协锁定，现货狂涨时只能眼看三星、美光收割ASP弹性。这不是经营恶化，而是一场\"用确定性换弹性\"的主动选择。下半年HBM4放量，才是判断这笔交易值不值的真正答案。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>SK海力士二季度营收79.32万亿韩元、营业利润暴增557%，利润率76.3%刷新存储业历史纪录，毛利率83%已超越英伟达——却成了本轮超级周期中唯一miss共识的巨头。根源在于：HBM霸主地位反噬，50%收入被LTA长协锁定，现货狂涨时只能眼看三星、美光收割ASP弹性。这不是经营恶化，而是一场"用确定性换弹性"的主动选择。下半年HBM4放量，才是判断这笔交易值不值的真正答案。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SK 海力士今日交出了一份"史上最强"财报，却也成了AI存储牛市里最微妙的 miss。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026 财年第二季度，海力士营收 79.32 万亿韩元，同比暴增 257%、环比增长 51%，看似无可挑剔，却低于市场预期约 5.5%（共识 83.9 万亿韩元）；营业利润 60.54 万亿韩元，同比暴涨 557%、环比增长 61%，但同样低于共识约 5.7%（64.2 万亿韩元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">营业利润率达到 76.3%，刷新存储行业有记录以来的最高水平；毛利率达到 83%——已超过英伟达（约 75%），逼近 Meta（约 82%）等软件平台巨头的盈利区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更耐人寻味的是市场反应：财报公布前，海力士股价已从 6 月 22 日高点累计下跌约 47%，财报公布后美股 ADR 先跌 5% 以上，随后转涨；韩国本地市场次日开盘涨 3-4%,随后暴跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一句话概括：数据绝对值创历史，但弹性不及预期，市场在"史上最强"与"不及预期"之间反复博弈。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a0b65db59b9f82d9fc2a9fa3f7b71e\" alt=\"营收与营业利润率趋势\" title=\"营收与营业利润率趋势\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"540\"/><span>营收与营业利润率趋势</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1362530077\">为什么利润涨了 557% 还 miss？LTA 是答案</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士 miss 的根源，藏在 HBM 超高收入占比里。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所谓 LTA（Long-Term Agreement，3-5 年期长期供货协议），是 AI 芯片客户与海力士等存储厂商签订的长期采购合约，价格在签约阶段即被锁定，不随现货市场每月波动。对于 AI 训练芯片出货量最大的英伟达而言，这种锁定关系是供应安全的保证；但对于海力士，它是一把双刃剑——当季 DRAM 平均售价（ASP）环比涨幅从第一季度的约 60% 骤降至约 30%，NAND ASP 涨幅也从约 70% 回落至 50-55%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">背后的算术很简单：海力士约 50% 的收入被 LTA 合约锁定，而 LTA 恰恰是它 HBM 份额最高的体现。与此同时，现货 DRAM 市场在同一个季度持续飙升——据 TrendForce 数据，二季度通用 DRAM 合约价环比上涨 58-63%，NAND 闪存价格上涨 70-75%，而海力士实际 ASP 涨幅仅为前者的一半左右，导致海力士"吃"到了成交量，却没能完全"吃"到价格上涨的弹性。韩国 KIS 证券在 7 月 13 日的报告中已提前预警这一矛盾，并将二季度营业利润预测下调至 60.4 万亿韩元——实际值 60.54 万亿韩元，几乎分毫不差。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需要强调的是，miss 不是经营恶化。恰恰相反，营业利润率从一季度 71.5% 进一步提升至 76.3%，绝对利润、营收、毛利率、营业利润率全部创历史新高。问题只在于：市场把预期打到了现货价上涨的路径上，而海力士选择了一条更稳、但也更不刺激的 LTA 路径。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04a3976a042c96225e4db801ec7c9ff9\" alt=\"三大存储巨头 ASP 对比\" title=\"三大存储巨头 ASP 对比\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"665\"/><span>三大存储巨头 ASP 对比</span></p><h2 id=\"id_4048738050\">三家巨头的分水岭：三星、美光 beat、海力士 miss</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同一轮存储超级周期里，三家巨头的表现出现罕见分化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三星电子二季度营收 171 万亿韩元，营业利润 89.4 万亿韩元，营收与利润双双 beat 共识。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨超过 40%，NAND ASP 上涨至 mid-60%，HBM4 已于 2 月开始量产，销售额已超过 12 亿美元。三星在 HBM 赛道一度落后，但如今正以集团资源优势追赶。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美光科技（Micron）三季度财报则是一场大胜：营收 414.6 亿美元，比预期高 16%；非 GAAP EPS 25.11 美元，比预期高 22.5%；毛利率 84.9%，第四季度指引营收 500 亿美元（±10 亿）、毛利率约 86%。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨 60% 以上，NAND ASP 上涨约 85%，均远超海力士。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而海力士在公司整体层面营业利润率最高（76.3% vs 三星集团 52% vs 美光约 68%），却是本季度唯一 miss 共识的厂商。需要指出，三星半导体（DS）部门利润率估计约 80%，高于海力士——但三星集团包含手机、显示等低利润业务，拉低了整体水平。这种反差说明：HBM 霸主地位带来了最高的公司级利润率和最稳定的客户关系，但也因为 LTA 锁定最强，现货涨价的弹性被压缩得最厉害。简言之，海力士用 ASP 弹性换了确定性。</p><h2 id=\"id_4077018765\">HBM4 量产与下半年放量：ASP 弹性回归的催化剂</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果 LTA 是二季度 miss 的主因，那么 HBM4 的放量节奏就是下半年能否扭转预期的关键变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士在财报中确认，HBM4 已在第二季度开始量产发货，下半年将持续扩大出货规模；更先进的 HBM4E 样品已在 2026 年上半年交付客户。KIS 证券预测，HBM4 从三季度开始放量后，海力士的 ASP 将重新向市场平均水平靠拢。这意味着三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅有望从 30% 的水平回升，LTA 锁定带来的"折扣"可能被部分抵消。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下游需求端，英伟达下一代 AI 加速器（Vera Rubin）的放量将直接拉动 HBM4 需求；同时，Agentic AI 应用的扩展正在把 AI 内存需求从训练端推向推理端。海力士管理层强调，当前客户需求仍然超过供给，公司的关键竞争优势在于能够满足大规模出货要求。换句话说，二季度的 ASP 折扣并非因为订单不足，而是因为合约价本身低于现货价——只要 HBM4 的出货结构改善，单位收入仍有显著上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在供给端，海力士的资本开支继续加码：2026 年全年 capex 预计在 40-50 万亿韩元的上沿，主要用于 M15X DRAM 工厂量产提速、P&T7 先进封装工厂、M17 NAND 生产基地，以及 2027 年初投产的龙仁半导体集群。截至二季度末，海力士现金储备暴增至 88 万亿韩元，净现金 69.4 万亿韩元（约 456 亿美元），资产负债表已经完全从周期底部翻身。</p><h2 id=\"id_2214195562\"> LTA 模式正在重塑存储行业的估值逻辑</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">短期看，LTA 让海力士在本轮现货涨价中跑得比三星、美光慢；长期看，它可能正在改变存储行业的估值方式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">传统上，存储行业被当作强周期股估值：ASP 涨跌决定利润率起伏，利润率又决定股价弹性。但 LTA 的普及让存储厂商的收入曲线变得更平滑——海力士 50% 收入被 LTA 锁定，美光已签署 16 份 SCA（战略客户协议）目标将 50% 以上收入转为长期合约，三星也在加速推进类似模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当 ASP 波动被压缩，市场定价的锚点就从"单季 ASP 涨幅"转向"高盈利可持续性"。这对海力士、美光等龙头而言，意味着估值中枢可能从"周期股"向"AI 基础设施资产"迁移。代价是：在超级周期的某些季度，股价弹性会显得"不够刺激"；投资者需要适应的是，存储龙头的利润曲线将更像云服务或半导体设备公司，而非传统大宗商品存储厂商。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回到财务报表，有一个数字需要格外注意：海力士二季度净利润 93.92 万亿韩元，净利率高达 118%——超过 100% 是因为计入了以出售铠侠（Kioxia）股权为主的非营业收益合计约 62.17 万亿韩元（税前）。按公司有效税率约 23.5% 折算，该非营业收益的税后影响约 47.6 万亿韩元；扣除后，核心经营性净利润约为 46.3 万亿韩元。这一异常值不影响主营业务判断，但阅读时必须留意，避免误读为经营性净利率破百。</p><h2 id=\"id_1240059125\">紧盯HBM4放量后的ASP涨幅</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士这份财报的真正看点，不是 557% 的利润增长，而是 AI 存储牛市进入第二阶段后，行业定价机制发生的变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下季度最值得跟踪的不是营收能否再破纪录，而是HBM4放量能否把ASP涨幅重新拉回到与三星、美光同一条水平线上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅回到 40%-50%，那么二季度的 miss 就会被重新定义为"过渡性折价"；如果 ASP 继续停留在 30% 附近，市场可能开始认真讨论 LTA 对存储龙头估值天花板的长期压制。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">无论哪种路径，存储行业的估值逻辑都已经和两年前完全不同了。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"史上最强\"之后，海力士开始难超预期了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"史上最强\"之后，海力士开始难超预期了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-29 13:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>SK海力士二季度营收79.32万亿韩元、营业利润暴增557%，利润率76.3%刷新存储业历史纪录，毛利率83%已超越英伟达——却成了本轮超级周期中唯一miss共识的巨头。根源在于：HBM霸主地位反噬，50%收入被LTA长协锁定，现货狂涨时只能眼看三星、美光收割ASP弹性。这不是经营恶化，而是一场"用确定性换弹性"的主动选择。下半年HBM4放量，才是判断这笔交易值不值的真正答案。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SK 海力士今日交出了一份"史上最强"财报，却也成了AI存储牛市里最微妙的 miss。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026 财年第二季度，海力士营收 79.32 万亿韩元，同比暴增 257%、环比增长 51%，看似无可挑剔，却低于市场预期约 5.5%（共识 83.9 万亿韩元）；营业利润 60.54 万亿韩元，同比暴涨 557%、环比增长 61%，但同样低于共识约 5.7%（64.2 万亿韩元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">营业利润率达到 76.3%，刷新存储行业有记录以来的最高水平；毛利率达到 83%——已超过英伟达（约 75%），逼近 Meta（约 82%）等软件平台巨头的盈利区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更耐人寻味的是市场反应：财报公布前，海力士股价已从 6 月 22 日高点累计下跌约 47%，财报公布后美股 ADR 先跌 5% 以上，随后转涨；韩国本地市场次日开盘涨 3-4%,随后暴跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一句话概括：数据绝对值创历史，但弹性不及预期，市场在"史上最强"与"不及预期"之间反复博弈。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a0b65db59b9f82d9fc2a9fa3f7b71e\" alt=\"营收与营业利润率趋势\" title=\"营收与营业利润率趋势\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"540\"/><span>营收与营业利润率趋势</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1362530077\">为什么利润涨了 557% 还 miss？LTA 是答案</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士 miss 的根源，藏在 HBM 超高收入占比里。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所谓 LTA（Long-Term Agreement，3-5 年期长期供货协议），是 AI 芯片客户与海力士等存储厂商签订的长期采购合约，价格在签约阶段即被锁定，不随现货市场每月波动。对于 AI 训练芯片出货量最大的英伟达而言，这种锁定关系是供应安全的保证；但对于海力士，它是一把双刃剑——当季 DRAM 平均售价（ASP）环比涨幅从第一季度的约 60% 骤降至约 30%，NAND ASP 涨幅也从约 70% 回落至 50-55%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">背后的算术很简单：海力士约 50% 的收入被 LTA 合约锁定，而 LTA 恰恰是它 HBM 份额最高的体现。与此同时，现货 DRAM 市场在同一个季度持续飙升——据 TrendForce 数据，二季度通用 DRAM 合约价环比上涨 58-63%，NAND 闪存价格上涨 70-75%，而海力士实际 ASP 涨幅仅为前者的一半左右，导致海力士"吃"到了成交量，却没能完全"吃"到价格上涨的弹性。韩国 KIS 证券在 7 月 13 日的报告中已提前预警这一矛盾，并将二季度营业利润预测下调至 60.4 万亿韩元——实际值 60.54 万亿韩元，几乎分毫不差。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需要强调的是，miss 不是经营恶化。恰恰相反，营业利润率从一季度 71.5% 进一步提升至 76.3%，绝对利润、营收、毛利率、营业利润率全部创历史新高。问题只在于：市场把预期打到了现货价上涨的路径上，而海力士选择了一条更稳、但也更不刺激的 LTA 路径。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04a3976a042c96225e4db801ec7c9ff9\" alt=\"三大存储巨头 ASP 对比\" title=\"三大存储巨头 ASP 对比\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"665\"/><span>三大存储巨头 ASP 对比</span></p><h2 id=\"id_4048738050\">三家巨头的分水岭：三星、美光 beat、海力士 miss</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同一轮存储超级周期里，三家巨头的表现出现罕见分化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三星电子二季度营收 171 万亿韩元，营业利润 89.4 万亿韩元，营收与利润双双 beat 共识。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨超过 40%，NAND ASP 上涨至 mid-60%，HBM4 已于 2 月开始量产，销售额已超过 12 亿美元。三星在 HBM 赛道一度落后，但如今正以集团资源优势追赶。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美光科技（Micron）三季度财报则是一场大胜：营收 414.6 亿美元，比预期高 16%；非 GAAP EPS 25.11 美元，比预期高 22.5%；毛利率 84.9%，第四季度指引营收 500 亿美元（±10 亿）、毛利率约 86%。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨 60% 以上，NAND ASP 上涨约 85%，均远超海力士。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而海力士在公司整体层面营业利润率最高（76.3% vs 三星集团 52% vs 美光约 68%），却是本季度唯一 miss 共识的厂商。需要指出，三星半导体（DS）部门利润率估计约 80%，高于海力士——但三星集团包含手机、显示等低利润业务，拉低了整体水平。这种反差说明：HBM 霸主地位带来了最高的公司级利润率和最稳定的客户关系，但也因为 LTA 锁定最强，现货涨价的弹性被压缩得最厉害。简言之，海力士用 ASP 弹性换了确定性。</p><h2 id=\"id_4077018765\">HBM4 量产与下半年放量：ASP 弹性回归的催化剂</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果 LTA 是二季度 miss 的主因，那么 HBM4 的放量节奏就是下半年能否扭转预期的关键变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士在财报中确认，HBM4 已在第二季度开始量产发货，下半年将持续扩大出货规模；更先进的 HBM4E 样品已在 2026 年上半年交付客户。KIS 证券预测，HBM4 从三季度开始放量后，海力士的 ASP 将重新向市场平均水平靠拢。这意味着三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅有望从 30% 的水平回升，LTA 锁定带来的"折扣"可能被部分抵消。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下游需求端，英伟达下一代 AI 加速器（Vera Rubin）的放量将直接拉动 HBM4 需求；同时，Agentic AI 应用的扩展正在把 AI 内存需求从训练端推向推理端。海力士管理层强调，当前客户需求仍然超过供给，公司的关键竞争优势在于能够满足大规模出货要求。换句话说，二季度的 ASP 折扣并非因为订单不足，而是因为合约价本身低于现货价——只要 HBM4 的出货结构改善，单位收入仍有显著上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在供给端，海力士的资本开支继续加码：2026 年全年 capex 预计在 40-50 万亿韩元的上沿，主要用于 M15X DRAM 工厂量产提速、P&T7 先进封装工厂、M17 NAND 生产基地，以及 2027 年初投产的龙仁半导体集群。截至二季度末，海力士现金储备暴增至 88 万亿韩元，净现金 69.4 万亿韩元（约 456 亿美元），资产负债表已经完全从周期底部翻身。</p><h2 id=\"id_2214195562\"> LTA 模式正在重塑存储行业的估值逻辑</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">短期看，LTA 让海力士在本轮现货涨价中跑得比三星、美光慢；长期看，它可能正在改变存储行业的估值方式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">传统上，存储行业被当作强周期股估值：ASP 涨跌决定利润率起伏，利润率又决定股价弹性。但 LTA 的普及让存储厂商的收入曲线变得更平滑——海力士 50% 收入被 LTA 锁定，美光已签署 16 份 SCA（战略客户协议）目标将 50% 以上收入转为长期合约，三星也在加速推进类似模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当 ASP 波动被压缩，市场定价的锚点就从"单季 ASP 涨幅"转向"高盈利可持续性"。这对海力士、美光等龙头而言，意味着估值中枢可能从"周期股"向"AI 基础设施资产"迁移。代价是：在超级周期的某些季度，股价弹性会显得"不够刺激"；投资者需要适应的是，存储龙头的利润曲线将更像云服务或半导体设备公司，而非传统大宗商品存储厂商。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回到财务报表，有一个数字需要格外注意：海力士二季度净利润 93.92 万亿韩元，净利率高达 118%——超过 100% 是因为计入了以出售铠侠（Kioxia）股权为主的非营业收益合计约 62.17 万亿韩元（税前）。按公司有效税率约 23.5% 折算，该非营业收益的税后影响约 47.6 万亿韩元；扣除后，核心经营性净利润约为 46.3 万亿韩元。这一异常值不影响主营业务判断，但阅读时必须留意，避免误读为经营性净利率破百。</p><h2 id=\"id_1240059125\">紧盯HBM4放量后的ASP涨幅</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士这份财报的真正看点，不是 557% 的利润增长，而是 AI 存储牛市进入第二阶段后，行业定价机制发生的变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下季度最值得跟踪的不是营收能否再破纪录，而是HBM4放量能否把ASP涨幅重新拉回到与三星、美光同一条水平线上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅回到 40%-50%，那么二季度的 miss 就会被重新定义为"过渡性折价"；如果 ASP 继续停留在 30% 附近，市场可能开始认真讨论 LTA 对存储龙头估值天花板的长期压制。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">无论哪种路径，存储行业的估值逻辑都已经和两年前完全不同了。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","EFIV":"SPDR S&P 500 ESG ETF","LU2168564222.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","BOBP":"CORE16 Best of Breed Premier Index ETF","SGXZ51526630.SGD":"大华环球创新基金A Acc SGD","LU2168564065.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","FXL":"First Trust Technology AlphaDEX Fund","LU2168563687.JPY":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (JPYHDG) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE 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ACC","HYNX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-T-REX"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778190","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2655685347","content_text":"SK海力士二季度营收79.32万亿韩元、营业利润暴增557%，利润率76.3%刷新存储业历史纪录，毛利率83%已超越英伟达——却成了本轮超级周期中唯一miss共识的巨头。根源在于：HBM霸主地位反噬，50%收入被LTA长协锁定，现货狂涨时只能眼看三星、美光收割ASP弹性。这不是经营恶化，而是一场\"用确定性换弹性\"的主动选择。下半年HBM4放量，才是判断这笔交易值不值的真正答案。SK 海力士今日交出了一份\"史上最强\"财报，却也成了AI存储牛市里最微妙的 miss。2026 财年第二季度，海力士营收 79.32 万亿韩元，同比暴增 257%、环比增长 51%，看似无可挑剔，却低于市场预期约 5.5%（共识 83.9 万亿韩元）；营业利润 60.54 万亿韩元，同比暴涨 557%、环比增长 61%，但同样低于共识约 5.7%（64.2 万亿韩元）。营业利润率达到 76.3%，刷新存储行业有记录以来的最高水平；毛利率达到 83%——已超过英伟达（约 75%），逼近 Meta（约 82%）等软件平台巨头的盈利区间。更耐人寻味的是市场反应：财报公布前，海力士股价已从 6 月 22 日高点累计下跌约 47%，财报公布后美股 ADR 先跌 5% 以上，随后转涨；韩国本地市场次日开盘涨 3-4%,随后暴跌。一句话概括：数据绝对值创历史，但弹性不及预期，市场在\"史上最强\"与\"不及预期\"之间反复博弈。营收与营业利润率趋势为什么利润涨了 557% 还 miss？LTA 是答案海力士 miss 的根源，藏在 HBM 超高收入占比里。所谓 LTA（Long-Term Agreement，3-5 年期长期供货协议），是 AI 芯片客户与海力士等存储厂商签订的长期采购合约，价格在签约阶段即被锁定，不随现货市场每月波动。对于 AI 训练芯片出货量最大的英伟达而言，这种锁定关系是供应安全的保证；但对于海力士，它是一把双刃剑——当季 DRAM 平均售价（ASP）环比涨幅从第一季度的约 60% 骤降至约 30%，NAND ASP 涨幅也从约 70% 回落至 50-55%。背后的算术很简单：海力士约 50% 的收入被 LTA 合约锁定，而 LTA 恰恰是它 HBM 份额最高的体现。与此同时，现货 DRAM 市场在同一个季度持续飙升——据 TrendForce 数据，二季度通用 DRAM 合约价环比上涨 58-63%，NAND 闪存价格上涨 70-75%，而海力士实际 ASP 涨幅仅为前者的一半左右，导致海力士\"吃\"到了成交量，却没能完全\"吃\"到价格上涨的弹性。韩国 KIS 证券在 7 月 13 日的报告中已提前预警这一矛盾，并将二季度营业利润预测下调至 60.4 万亿韩元——实际值 60.54 万亿韩元，几乎分毫不差。需要强调的是，miss 不是经营恶化。恰恰相反，营业利润率从一季度 71.5% 进一步提升至 76.3%，绝对利润、营收、毛利率、营业利润率全部创历史新高。问题只在于：市场把预期打到了现货价上涨的路径上，而海力士选择了一条更稳、但也更不刺激的 LTA 路径。三大存储巨头 ASP 对比三家巨头的分水岭：三星、美光 beat、海力士 miss同一轮存储超级周期里，三家巨头的表现出现罕见分化。三星电子二季度营收 171 万亿韩元，营业利润 89.4 万亿韩元，营收与利润双双 beat 共识。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨超过 40%，NAND ASP 上涨至 mid-60%，HBM4 已于 2 月开始量产，销售额已超过 12 亿美元。三星在 HBM 赛道一度落后，但如今正以集团资源优势追赶。美光科技（Micron）三季度财报则是一场大胜：营收 414.6 亿美元，比预期高 16%；非 GAAP EPS 25.11 美元，比预期高 22.5%；毛利率 84.9%，第四季度指引营收 500 亿美元（±10 亿）、毛利率约 86%。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨 60% 以上，NAND ASP 上涨约 85%，均远超海力士。而海力士在公司整体层面营业利润率最高（76.3% vs 三星集团 52% vs 美光约 68%），却是本季度唯一 miss 共识的厂商。需要指出，三星半导体（DS）部门利润率估计约 80%，高于海力士——但三星集团包含手机、显示等低利润业务，拉低了整体水平。这种反差说明：HBM 霸主地位带来了最高的公司级利润率和最稳定的客户关系，但也因为 LTA 锁定最强，现货涨价的弹性被压缩得最厉害。简言之，海力士用 ASP 弹性换了确定性。HBM4 量产与下半年放量：ASP 弹性回归的催化剂如果 LTA 是二季度 miss 的主因，那么 HBM4 的放量节奏就是下半年能否扭转预期的关键变量。海力士在财报中确认，HBM4 已在第二季度开始量产发货，下半年将持续扩大出货规模；更先进的 HBM4E 样品已在 2026 年上半年交付客户。KIS 证券预测，HBM4 从三季度开始放量后，海力士的 ASP 将重新向市场平均水平靠拢。这意味着三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅有望从 30% 的水平回升，LTA 锁定带来的\"折扣\"可能被部分抵消。下游需求端，英伟达下一代 AI 加速器（Vera Rubin）的放量将直接拉动 HBM4 需求；同时，Agentic AI 应用的扩展正在把 AI 内存需求从训练端推向推理端。海力士管理层强调，当前客户需求仍然超过供给，公司的关键竞争优势在于能够满足大规模出货要求。换句话说，二季度的 ASP 折扣并非因为订单不足，而是因为合约价本身低于现货价——只要 HBM4 的出货结构改善，单位收入仍有显著上行空间。在供给端，海力士的资本开支继续加码：2026 年全年 capex 预计在 40-50 万亿韩元的上沿，主要用于 M15X DRAM 工厂量产提速、P&T7 先进封装工厂、M17 NAND 生产基地，以及 2027 年初投产的龙仁半导体集群。截至二季度末，海力士现金储备暴增至 88 万亿韩元，净现金 69.4 万亿韩元（约 456 亿美元），资产负债表已经完全从周期底部翻身。 LTA 模式正在重塑存储行业的估值逻辑短期看，LTA 让海力士在本轮现货涨价中跑得比三星、美光慢；长期看，它可能正在改变存储行业的估值方式。传统上，存储行业被当作强周期股估值：ASP 涨跌决定利润率起伏，利润率又决定股价弹性。但 LTA 的普及让存储厂商的收入曲线变得更平滑——海力士 50% 收入被 LTA 锁定，美光已签署 16 份 SCA（战略客户协议）目标将 50% 以上收入转为长期合约，三星也在加速推进类似模式。当 ASP 波动被压缩，市场定价的锚点就从\"单季 ASP 涨幅\"转向\"高盈利可持续性\"。这对海力士、美光等龙头而言，意味着估值中枢可能从\"周期股\"向\"AI 基础设施资产\"迁移。代价是：在超级周期的某些季度，股价弹性会显得\"不够刺激\"；投资者需要适应的是，存储龙头的利润曲线将更像云服务或半导体设备公司，而非传统大宗商品存储厂商。回到财务报表，有一个数字需要格外注意：海力士二季度净利润 93.92 万亿韩元，净利率高达 118%——超过 100% 是因为计入了以出售铠侠（Kioxia）股权为主的非营业收益合计约 62.17 万亿韩元（税前）。按公司有效税率约 23.5% 折算，该非营业收益的税后影响约 47.6 万亿韩元；扣除后，核心经营性净利润约为 46.3 万亿韩元。这一异常值不影响主营业务判断，但阅读时必须留意，避免误读为经营性净利率破百。紧盯HBM4放量后的ASP涨幅海力士这份财报的真正看点，不是 557% 的利润增长，而是 AI 存储牛市进入第二阶段后，行业定价机制发生的变化。下季度最值得跟踪的不是营收能否再破纪录，而是HBM4放量能否把ASP涨幅重新拉回到与三星、美光同一条水平线上。如果三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅回到 40%-50%，那么二季度的 miss 就会被重新定义为\"过渡性折价\"；如果 ASP 继续停留在 30% 附近，市场可能开始认真讨论 LTA 对存储龙头估值天花板的长期压制。无论哪种路径，存储行业的估值逻辑都已经和两年前完全不同了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARTY":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"PTF":0.6,"SOXX":0.6,"FTXL":0.6,"BOBP":0.6,"SKUU":0.6,"CGGO":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"WUGI":0.6,"EMSF":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"RULE":0.6,"WLDR":0.6,"AIQ":0.6,"SHOC":0.6,"AIS":0.6,"HBMX":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"FXL":0.6,"AIFD":0.6,"CHAT":0.6,"HYNX":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"SK":0.6,"DISK":0.6,"SOXQ":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"XNTK":0.6,"SKHX":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"SKHU":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"LEGR":0.6,"PSI":0.6,"SKHZ":0.6,"CHPS":0.6,"EGGY":0.6,"BAI":0.6,"DRMY":0.6,"SKHY":1.97}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}