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- 2d90086a2d90086a
  ·2021-12-24
  Nice
  NKLA Stock Is Heating Up as Nikola Leaves 2021’s Bad News Behind<blockquote>随着尼古拉将 2021 年的坏消息抛诸脑后，NKLA 股价升温</blockquote>
  Electric vehicle (EV) company and frequent headline-grabber Nikola(NASDAQ:NKLA) is up big today as t
  NKLA Stock Is Heating Up as Nikola Leaves 2021’s Bad News Behind<blockquote>随着尼古拉将 2021 年的坏消息抛诸脑后，NKLA 股价升温</blockquote>
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- 2d90086a2d90086a
  ·2021-12-24
  Pls like!
  Here are Warren Buffett's 8 highlights of 2021<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特 2021 年的 8 个亮点</blockquote>
  Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year
  Here are Warren Buffett's 8 highlights of 2021<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特 2021 年的 8 个亮点</blockquote>
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- 2d90086a2d90086a
  ·2021-12-23
  Nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,471 评论
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- 2d90086a2d90086a
  ·2021-12-23
  Like pls+
  Does This Wildly Accurate S&P 500 Ratio Signal Doom for Investors in 2022?<blockquote>这种极其准确的标普500比率是否预示着投资者在 2022 年的厄运？</blockquote>
  While I'm generally skeptical of stock market indicators, investors might want to pay attention to this one.
  Does This Wildly Accurate S&P 500 Ratio Signal Doom for Investors in 2022?<blockquote>这种极其准确的标普500比率是否预示着投资者在 2022 年的厄运？</blockquote>
  3,409 评论
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- 2d90086a2d90086a
  ·2021-12-23
  Nice!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,348 评论
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- 2d90086a2d90086a
  ·2021-08-31
  Nice!!!!!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,833 评论
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- 2d90086a2d90086a
  ·2021-08-03
  Nice!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 2d90086a2d90086a
  ·2021-07-30
  Time to buy!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 2d90086a2d90086a
  ·2021-07-30
  Buy the drop!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 2d90086a2d90086a
  ·2021-07-27
  Oh noooo
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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11:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NKLA Stock Is Heating Up as Nikola Leaves 2021’s Bad News Behind<blockquote>随着尼古拉将 2021 年的坏消息抛诸脑后，NKLA 股价升温</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170032312","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Electric vehicle (EV) company and frequent headline-grabber Nikola(NASDAQ:NKLA) is up big today as t","content":"<p><div> Electric vehicle (EV) company and frequent headline-grabber Nikola(NASDAQ:NKLA) is up big today as the troubled truck maker looks to leave its bad press days in the past. NKLA stock is up nearly 20% ...</p><p><blockquote><div>电动汽车 (EV) 公司和经常成为头条新闻的 Nikola（纳斯达克股票代码：NKLA）今天股价大幅上涨，这家陷入困境的卡车制造商希望摆脱过去糟糕的新闻日子。NKLA股价上涨近20%……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/nkla-stock-is-heating-up-as-nikola-leaves-2021s-bad-news-behind/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/nkla-stock-is-heating-up-as-nikola-leaves-2021s-bad-news-behind/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NKLA Stock Is Heating Up as Nikola Leaves 2021’s Bad News Behind<blockquote>随着尼古拉将 2021 年的坏消息抛诸脑后，NKLA 股价升温</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNKLA Stock Is Heating Up as Nikola Leaves 2021’s Bad News Behind<blockquote>随着尼古拉将 2021 年的坏消息抛诸脑后，NKLA 股价升温</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 11:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Electric vehicle (EV) company and frequent headline-grabber Nikola(NASDAQ:NKLA) is up big today as the troubled truck maker looks to leave its bad press days in the past. NKLA stock is up nearly 20% ...</p><p><blockquote><div>电动汽车 (EV) 公司和经常成为头条新闻的 Nikola（纳斯达克股票代码：NKLA）今天股价大幅上涨，这家陷入困境的卡车制造商希望摆脱过去糟糕的新闻日子。NKLA股价上涨近20%……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/nkla-stock-is-heating-up-as-nikola-leaves-2021s-bad-news-behind/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/nkla-stock-is-heating-up-as-nikola-leaves-2021s-bad-news-behind/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/nkla-stock-is-heating-up-as-nikola-leaves-2021s-bad-news-behind/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/nkla-stock-is-heating-up-as-nikola-leaves-2021s-bad-news-behind/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170032312","content_text":"Electric vehicle (EV) company and frequent headline-grabber Nikola(NASDAQ:NKLA) is up big today as the troubled truck maker looks to leave its bad press days in the past. NKLA stock is up nearly 20% today as the company promises “more to come” in 2022.\nHow exactly is Nikola moving forward?\nWell, in a tweet Wednesday, Nikola posted a series of images of its recent delivery event at the Port of Los Angeles. The delivery marks a new phase for the company, hopefully one lacking the controversy that defined this year. The electric truck company is looking to build some positive momentum heading into the new year. And at a glance, investors are all for it.\nSo, what else do you need to know about the electric truck company and NKLA stock?\nNKLA Stock Eyes 2022 Rebound After a Rollercoaster Year\nNikola has had a series of PR wins as of late. Just days ago, Nikola publicly agreed to a $125 million settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).\nIndeed, Nikola was the subject of a fraud investigation brought on by founder and former Executive Chairman Trevor Milton. Milton was arrested this summer for making false claims about his company’s technological capabilities. Investors may remember the viral video showing off what appears to be an operable Nikola prototype. However, in reality, the truck was simply rolling down an incline. Milton earned billions in investments under false pretenses. In fact, General Motors(NYSE:GM) even took a$2 billion stake in the untested company.\nWhile paying a massive fine is rarely seen as a victory, NKLA’s viability depends on its ability to move on. Nikola’s recent delivery of its Tre battery electric vehicle (BEV) only adds to the narrative that this is a fresh chapter. The delivery marks the first of 100 planned BEV semi-trucks that Total Transportation Services intend to acquire over the next few years. It’s a positive sign for Nikola, and one that may convince some that the EV company isn’t just talking after all.\nProspects look good for the first time in a while for the electric truck maker. Time will tell if today’s jump is a blip on the map, or the beginning of a resurgence for NKLA stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NKLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698187313,"gmtCreate":1640318707126,"gmtModify":1640319177958,"author":{"id":"3581472743019515","authorId":"3581472743019515","name":"2d90086a","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581472743019515","authorIdStr":"3581472743019515"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like!","listText":"Pls like!","text":"Pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698187313","repostId":"1117383431","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117383431","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640317475,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117383431?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 11:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here are Warren Buffett's 8 highlights of 2021<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特 2021 年的 8 个亮点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117383431","media":"Markets insider","summary":"Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year","content":"<p>Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year. Here are his 8 highlights of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特透露了两大赌注，为自己的纳税习惯辩护，并承认今年犯了几个错误。以下是他2021年的8个亮点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Warren Buffett revealed two big bets, admitted mistakes, and complained about speculators this year.</li>  <li>The Berkshire Hathaway chief defended his tax practices<b>&nbsp;and made a fortune on Apple.</b></li>  <li><b>Here are billionaire investor Buffett's eight highlights of 2021.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e08085f6ee8a3866f2c0f78fdc0f63\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>沃伦·巴菲特透露了两个大赌注，承认了错误，并抱怨了今年的投机者。</li><li>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司总裁为自己的税务做法辩护<b>在苹果上发了财。</b></li><li><b>以下是亿万富翁投资者巴菲特 2021 年的八大亮点。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett revealed a couple of billion-dollar investments, owned up to making several mistakes, and bemoaned the rampant speculation in markets this year.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特透露了几笔数十亿美元的投资，承认犯了几个错误，并哀叹今年市场上猖獗的投机行为。</blockquote></p><p> The renowned investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO also weathered a tax exposé, resigned as a trustee of The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, reflected on his decades-long friendship with Charlie Munger, and saw his Apple investment soared in value.</p><p><blockquote>这位著名投资者兼伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官还经受住了税务风险，辞去了比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会受托人的职务，反思了他与查理·芒格数十年的友谊，并看到他在苹果的投资价值飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are the 8 highlights of Buffett's year:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是巴菲特今年的 8 个亮点：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Chevron and Verizon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>雪佛龙和威瑞森</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6a660c35780e87560d9d7518a755bf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett started the year in style with his&nbsp;fourth-quarter portfolio update&nbsp;in February. He revealed a $4.1 billion stake in&nbsp;Chevron&nbsp;and a $8.6 billion position in&nbsp;Verizon, answering the question of which&nbsp;mystery stocks&nbsp;he had been buying in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在二月份发布了第四季度投资组合更新，以时尚的方式开始了新的一年。他透露了雪佛龙41亿美元的股份和威瑞森86亿美元的头寸，回答了他最近几个月购买了哪些神秘股票的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire also trimmed the largest position in its portfolio,Apple, by 6%. Moreover, it halved its&nbsp;Wells Fargo&nbsp;holdings and exited&nbsp;JPMorgan,PNC, and&nbsp;M&amp;T&nbsp;after slashing its positions in those banks in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔还将其投资组合中最大的头寸苹果公司削减了 6%。此外，该公司在 2020 年削减了富国银行的持股比例后，将其持有的富国银行减半，并退出了摩根大通、PNC 和 M&amp;T。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The shareholder letter</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东函件</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8d9ea154fd9ca33192159634e60af4\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett&nbsp;published&nbsp;his annual letter to shareholders in February. The investor admitted to overpaying when he acquired Precision Castparts in 2016, trumpeted a bunch of Berkshire's subsidiaries, and contrasted his long-term shareholders with the speculators flocking to trendy assets such as meme stocks and cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特于二月份发表了年度致股东信。这位投资者承认在 2016 年收购 Precision Castparts 时支付了过高的价格，大肆宣扬伯克希尔的一系列子公司，并将他的长期股东与涌向模因股票和加密货币等时尚资产的投机者进行了对比。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The annual meeting</b></p><p><blockquote><b>年会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f9312fb972e2aa68627183025b2f91e\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett talks to reporters while holding an ice cream at a trade show during the company's annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska May 3, 2014.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2014 年 5 月 3 日，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行的公司年会上手持冰淇淋在贸易展上接受记者采访。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett warned rookie traders not to get cocky, bemoaned the lack of bargains in the market, rang the inflation alarm, and admitted to buying \"so-so\" stocks during Berkshire's&nbsp;annual shareholder meeting&nbsp;in May.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特警告菜鸟交易员不要自大，哀叹市场缺乏便宜货，敲响通胀警钟，并承认在5月份伯克希尔年度股东大会期间购买了“一般般”的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The investor also complained about the surge in people treating the stock market like a casino. Moreover, he acknowledged that trimming his Apple stake and selling&nbsp;Costco&nbsp;were likely mistakes, and suggested he avoided bailing out the \"big four\" US airlines by exiting his positions in them in April 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者还抱怨说，越来越多的人把股市当成赌场。此外，他承认削减苹果股份和出售好市多可能是错误，并建议他在2020年4月退出美国“四大”航空公司的头寸，以避免救助它们。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The tax fracas</b></p><p><blockquote><b>税务纠纷</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a44f30c0a7e35f28da432b35a28cf3\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett came under fire in June after ProPublica secured the tax returns of some of the wealthiest Americans, and reported the investor paid only $25 million in federal income tax between 2014 and 2018.</p><p><blockquote>6 月份，ProPublica 获得了一些最富有的美国人的纳税申报表，并报道称这位投资者在 2014 年至 2018 年间仅缴纳了 2500 万美元的联邦所得税，巴菲特因此受到抨击。</blockquote></p><p> The Berkshire boss&nbsp;defended himself&nbsp;by noting that he's pledged to give over 99% of his net worth to philanthropic causes, and has already donated about half of his Berkshire \"A\" shares since 2006.</p><p><blockquote>这位伯克希尔老板为自己辩护时指出，他承诺将超过 99% 的净资产捐赠给慈善事业，并且自 2006 年以来已经捐赠了大约一半的伯克希尔“A”股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Gates Foundation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盖茨基金会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f51d18855fcf5c00bab6b290a5814dd9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Paul Sakuma/AP Photo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>保罗·佐久间/美联社照片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett&nbsp;resigned&nbsp;as a trustee of the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation in June. The investor explained that he was barely involved in the foundation's work, and had already stepped down from all corporate boards except his own.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特于六月辞去比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会受托人职务。这位投资者解释说，他几乎没有参与基金会的工作，并且已经辞去了除自己以外的所有公司董事会职务。</blockquote></p><p> He also highlighted his annual donation of $4.1 billion in total to five charities, including the Gates Foundation.</p><p><blockquote>他还强调了他每年向包括盖茨基金会在内的五个慈善机构捐赠的总计41亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friendship with Charlie Munger</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与查理·芒格的友谊</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad9020f65431108ca2a38c0e654349a2\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett and his business partner, Charlie Munger, discussed their decades-long friendship in a&nbsp;CNBC interview&nbsp;that aired in June.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特和他的商业伙伴查理·芒格在 6 月份播出的 CNBC 采访中讨论了他们数十年的友谊。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The pair sharply criticized&nbsp;Robinhood, and Munger called for tighter regulations on derivatives trading after&nbsp;Archegos Capital's meltdown. Buffett underlined the immense contribution that Munger has made to his life.</p><p><blockquote>两人严厉批评了 Robinhood，芒格呼吁在 Archegos Capital 倒闭后对衍生品交易实施更严格的监管。巴菲特强调了芒格对他一生做出的巨大贡献。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buybacks, cash, and stock sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回购、现金和股票销售</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfba0cfd98eca4c346f1fc53e1dd9bf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's&nbsp;third-quarter earnings&nbsp;underlined how hard it has been for Buffett to find bargain stocks and businesses this year. That has prompted him to stockpile cash and ramp up share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔第三季度的收益凸显了巴菲特今年寻找廉价股票和业务有多么困难。这促使他囤积现金并增加股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate sold a net $7 billion of stock in the year to September 30, revealed it was on track to repurchase a record $25 billion of stock this year, and grew its cash pile to an unprecedented $149 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 9 月 30 日的一年中，该企业集团净出售了 70 亿美元的股票，透露今年有望回购创纪录的 250 亿美元股票，并将其现金池增至前所未有的 1,490 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple bet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果赌注</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a735713e1ca5629e3e229ed80ea7fbb\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett's biggest success this year might well be his Apple investment.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特今年最大的成功很可能是他的苹果投资。</blockquote></p><p> The investor plowed $36 billion into the iPhone maker between 2016 and 2018. The stock has&nbsp;surged&nbsp;by about a third this year, boosting the value of Berkshire's stake to more than $150 billion as of mid-December.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者在2016年至2018年间向这家iPhone制造商投入了360亿美元。该股今年已飙升约三分之一，截至 12 月中旬，伯克希尔的股票价值已超过 1500 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here are Warren Buffett's 8 highlights of 2021<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特 2021 年的 8 个亮点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere are Warren Buffett's 8 highlights of 2021<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特 2021 年的 8 个亮点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Markets insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 11:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year. Here are his 8 highlights of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特透露了两大赌注，为自己的纳税习惯辩护，并承认今年犯了几个错误。以下是他2021年的8个亮点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Warren Buffett revealed two big bets, admitted mistakes, and complained about speculators this year.</li>  <li>The Berkshire Hathaway chief defended his tax practices<b>&nbsp;and made a fortune on Apple.</b></li>  <li><b>Here are billionaire investor Buffett's eight highlights of 2021.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e08085f6ee8a3866f2c0f78fdc0f63\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>沃伦·巴菲特透露了两个大赌注，承认了错误，并抱怨了今年的投机者。</li><li>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司总裁为自己的税务做法辩护<b>在苹果上发了财。</b></li><li><b>以下是亿万富翁投资者巴菲特 2021 年的八大亮点。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett revealed a couple of billion-dollar investments, owned up to making several mistakes, and bemoaned the rampant speculation in markets this year.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特透露了几笔数十亿美元的投资，承认犯了几个错误，并哀叹今年市场上猖獗的投机行为。</blockquote></p><p> The renowned investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO also weathered a tax exposé, resigned as a trustee of The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, reflected on his decades-long friendship with Charlie Munger, and saw his Apple investment soared in value.</p><p><blockquote>这位著名投资者兼伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官还经受住了税务风险，辞去了比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会受托人的职务，反思了他与查理·芒格数十年的友谊，并看到他在苹果的投资价值飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are the 8 highlights of Buffett's year:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是巴菲特今年的 8 个亮点：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Chevron and Verizon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>雪佛龙和威瑞森</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6a660c35780e87560d9d7518a755bf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett started the year in style with his&nbsp;fourth-quarter portfolio update&nbsp;in February. He revealed a $4.1 billion stake in&nbsp;Chevron&nbsp;and a $8.6 billion position in&nbsp;Verizon, answering the question of which&nbsp;mystery stocks&nbsp;he had been buying in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在二月份发布了第四季度投资组合更新，以时尚的方式开始了新的一年。他透露了雪佛龙41亿美元的股份和威瑞森86亿美元的头寸，回答了他最近几个月购买了哪些神秘股票的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire also trimmed the largest position in its portfolio,Apple, by 6%. Moreover, it halved its&nbsp;Wells Fargo&nbsp;holdings and exited&nbsp;JPMorgan,PNC, and&nbsp;M&amp;T&nbsp;after slashing its positions in those banks in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔还将其投资组合中最大的头寸苹果公司削减了 6%。此外，该公司在 2020 年削减了富国银行的持股比例后，将其持有的富国银行减半，并退出了摩根大通、PNC 和 M&amp;T。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The shareholder letter</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东函件</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8d9ea154fd9ca33192159634e60af4\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett&nbsp;published&nbsp;his annual letter to shareholders in February. The investor admitted to overpaying when he acquired Precision Castparts in 2016, trumpeted a bunch of Berkshire's subsidiaries, and contrasted his long-term shareholders with the speculators flocking to trendy assets such as meme stocks and cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特于二月份发表了年度致股东信。这位投资者承认在 2016 年收购 Precision Castparts 时支付了过高的价格，大肆宣扬伯克希尔的一系列子公司，并将他的长期股东与涌向模因股票和加密货币等时尚资产的投机者进行了对比。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The annual meeting</b></p><p><blockquote><b>年会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f9312fb972e2aa68627183025b2f91e\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett talks to reporters while holding an ice cream at a trade show during the company's annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska May 3, 2014.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2014 年 5 月 3 日，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行的公司年会上手持冰淇淋在贸易展上接受记者采访。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett warned rookie traders not to get cocky, bemoaned the lack of bargains in the market, rang the inflation alarm, and admitted to buying \"so-so\" stocks during Berkshire's&nbsp;annual shareholder meeting&nbsp;in May.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特警告菜鸟交易员不要自大，哀叹市场缺乏便宜货，敲响通胀警钟，并承认在5月份伯克希尔年度股东大会期间购买了“一般般”的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The investor also complained about the surge in people treating the stock market like a casino. Moreover, he acknowledged that trimming his Apple stake and selling&nbsp;Costco&nbsp;were likely mistakes, and suggested he avoided bailing out the \"big four\" US airlines by exiting his positions in them in April 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者还抱怨说，越来越多的人把股市当成赌场。此外，他承认削减苹果股份和出售好市多可能是错误，并建议他在2020年4月退出美国“四大”航空公司的头寸，以避免救助它们。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The tax fracas</b></p><p><blockquote><b>税务纠纷</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a44f30c0a7e35f28da432b35a28cf3\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett came under fire in June after ProPublica secured the tax returns of some of the wealthiest Americans, and reported the investor paid only $25 million in federal income tax between 2014 and 2018.</p><p><blockquote>6 月份，ProPublica 获得了一些最富有的美国人的纳税申报表，并报道称这位投资者在 2014 年至 2018 年间仅缴纳了 2500 万美元的联邦所得税，巴菲特因此受到抨击。</blockquote></p><p> The Berkshire boss&nbsp;defended himself&nbsp;by noting that he's pledged to give over 99% of his net worth to philanthropic causes, and has already donated about half of his Berkshire \"A\" shares since 2006.</p><p><blockquote>这位伯克希尔老板为自己辩护时指出，他承诺将超过 99% 的净资产捐赠给慈善事业，并且自 2006 年以来已经捐赠了大约一半的伯克希尔“A”股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Gates Foundation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盖茨基金会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f51d18855fcf5c00bab6b290a5814dd9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Paul Sakuma/AP Photo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>保罗·佐久间/美联社照片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett&nbsp;resigned&nbsp;as a trustee of the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation in June. The investor explained that he was barely involved in the foundation's work, and had already stepped down from all corporate boards except his own.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特于六月辞去比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会受托人职务。这位投资者解释说，他几乎没有参与基金会的工作，并且已经辞去了除自己以外的所有公司董事会职务。</blockquote></p><p> He also highlighted his annual donation of $4.1 billion in total to five charities, including the Gates Foundation.</p><p><blockquote>他还强调了他每年向包括盖茨基金会在内的五个慈善机构捐赠的总计41亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friendship with Charlie Munger</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与查理·芒格的友谊</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad9020f65431108ca2a38c0e654349a2\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett and his business partner, Charlie Munger, discussed their decades-long friendship in a&nbsp;CNBC interview&nbsp;that aired in June.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特和他的商业伙伴查理·芒格在 6 月份播出的 CNBC 采访中讨论了他们数十年的友谊。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The pair sharply criticized&nbsp;Robinhood, and Munger called for tighter regulations on derivatives trading after&nbsp;Archegos Capital's meltdown. Buffett underlined the immense contribution that Munger has made to his life.</p><p><blockquote>两人严厉批评了 Robinhood，芒格呼吁在 Archegos Capital 倒闭后对衍生品交易实施更严格的监管。巴菲特强调了芒格对他一生做出的巨大贡献。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buybacks, cash, and stock sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回购、现金和股票销售</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfba0cfd98eca4c346f1fc53e1dd9bf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's&nbsp;third-quarter earnings&nbsp;underlined how hard it has been for Buffett to find bargain stocks and businesses this year. That has prompted him to stockpile cash and ramp up share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔第三季度的收益凸显了巴菲特今年寻找廉价股票和业务有多么困难。这促使他囤积现金并增加股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate sold a net $7 billion of stock in the year to September 30, revealed it was on track to repurchase a record $25 billion of stock this year, and grew its cash pile to an unprecedented $149 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 9 月 30 日的一年中，该企业集团净出售了 70 亿美元的股票，透露今年有望回购创纪录的 250 亿美元股票，并将其现金池增至前所未有的 1,490 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple bet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果赌注</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a735713e1ca5629e3e229ed80ea7fbb\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett's biggest success this year might well be his Apple investment.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特今年最大的成功很可能是他的苹果投资。</blockquote></p><p> The investor plowed $36 billion into the iPhone maker between 2016 and 2018. The stock has&nbsp;surged&nbsp;by about a third this year, boosting the value of Berkshire's stake to more than $150 billion as of mid-December.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者在2016年至2018年间向这家iPhone制造商投入了360亿美元。该股今年已飙升约三分之一，截至 12 月中旬，伯克希尔的股票价值已超过 1500 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-stocks-portfolio-taxes-mistakes-review-2021-12\">Markets insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-stocks-portfolio-taxes-mistakes-review-2021-12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117383431","content_text":"Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year. Here are his 8 highlights of 2021.\n\nWarren Buffett revealed two big bets, admitted mistakes, and complained about speculators this year.\nThe Berkshire Hathaway chief defended his tax practices and made a fortune on Apple.\nHere are billionaire investor Buffett's eight highlights of 2021.\n\nWarren Buffett.\nWarren Buffett revealed a couple of billion-dollar investments, owned up to making several mistakes, and bemoaned the rampant speculation in markets this year.\nThe renowned investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO also weathered a tax exposé, resigned as a trustee of The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, reflected on his decades-long friendship with Charlie Munger, and saw his Apple investment soared in value.\nHere are the 8 highlights of Buffett's year:\nChevron and Verizon\nCNBC\nBuffett started the year in style with his fourth-quarter portfolio update in February. He revealed a $4.1 billion stake in Chevron and a $8.6 billion position in Verizon, answering the question of which mystery stocks he had been buying in recent months.\nBerkshire also trimmed the largest position in its portfolio,Apple, by 6%. Moreover, it halved its Wells Fargo holdings and exited JPMorgan,PNC, and M&T after slashing its positions in those banks in 2020.\nThe shareholder letter\nWarren Buffett\nBuffett published his annual letter to shareholders in February. The investor admitted to overpaying when he acquired Precision Castparts in 2016, trumpeted a bunch of Berkshire's subsidiaries, and contrasted his long-term shareholders with the speculators flocking to trendy assets such as meme stocks and cryptocurrencies.\nThe annual meeting\nBerkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett talks to reporters while holding an ice cream at a trade show during the company's annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska May 3, 2014.\nBuffett warned rookie traders not to get cocky, bemoaned the lack of bargains in the market, rang the inflation alarm, and admitted to buying \"so-so\" stocks during Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting in May.\nThe investor also complained about the surge in people treating the stock market like a casino. Moreover, he acknowledged that trimming his Apple stake and selling Costco were likely mistakes, and suggested he avoided bailing out the \"big four\" US airlines by exiting his positions in them in April 2020.\nThe tax fracas\nWarren Buffett\nBuffett came under fire in June after ProPublica secured the tax returns of some of the wealthiest Americans, and reported the investor paid only $25 million in federal income tax between 2014 and 2018.\nThe Berkshire boss defended himself by noting that he's pledged to give over 99% of his net worth to philanthropic causes, and has already donated about half of his Berkshire \"A\" shares since 2006.\nThe Gates Foundation\nPaul Sakuma/AP Photo\nBuffett resigned as a trustee of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in June. The investor explained that he was barely involved in the foundation's work, and had already stepped down from all corporate boards except his own.\nHe also highlighted his annual donation of $4.1 billion in total to five charities, including the Gates Foundation.\nFriendship with Charlie Munger\nSCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS\nBuffett and his business partner, Charlie Munger, discussed their decades-long friendship in a CNBC interview that aired in June.\nThe pair sharply criticized Robinhood, and Munger called for tighter regulations on derivatives trading after Archegos Capital's meltdown. Buffett underlined the immense contribution that Munger has made to his life.\nBuybacks, cash, and stock sales\nWarren Buffett\nBerkshire's third-quarter earnings underlined how hard it has been for Buffett to find bargain stocks and businesses this year. That has prompted him to stockpile cash and ramp up share buybacks.\nThe conglomerate sold a net $7 billion of stock in the year to September 30, revealed it was on track to repurchase a record $25 billion of stock this year, and grew its cash pile to an unprecedented $149 billion.\nThe Apple bet\nWarren Buffett\nBuffett's biggest success this year might well be his Apple investment.\nThe investor plowed $36 billion into the iPhone maker between 2016 and 2018. The stock has surged by about a third this year, boosting the value of Berkshire's stake to more than $150 billion as of mid-December.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698937481,"gmtCreate":1640273734652,"gmtModify":1640273734772,"author":{"id":"3581472743019515","authorId":"3581472743019515","name":"2d90086a","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581472743019515","authorIdStr":"3581472743019515"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698937481","repostId":"1152565085","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691420524,"gmtCreate":1640229506139,"gmtModify":1640229506265,"author":{"id":"3581472743019515","authorId":"3581472743019515","name":"2d90086a","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581472743019515","authorIdStr":"3581472743019515"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls+","listText":"Like pls+","text":"Like pls+","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691420524","repostId":"1164868978","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164868978","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640229309,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1164868978?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Does This Wildly Accurate S&P 500 Ratio Signal Doom for Investors in 2022?<blockquote>这种极其准确的标普500比率是否预示着投资者在 2022 年的厄运？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164868978","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"While I'm generally skeptical of stock market indicators, investors might want to pay attention to this one.","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Predicting stock market performance is a near-impossible task.</li>  <li>The Shiller P/E ratio may be as accurate an indicator as there is.</li>  <li>But investors would still do well to focus on the long term.</li> </ul> If someone ever asks me what I think the market is going to do next, I usually reply by saying I have no idea. I believe most investors would be wise to adopt this philosophy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预测股市表现几乎是一项不可能完成的任务。</li><li>席勒市盈率可能是最准确的指标。</li><li>但投资者最好还是着眼于长期。</li></ul>如果有人问我，我认为市场接下来会做什么，我通常会回答说我不知道。我相信大多数投资者采用这种理念是明智的。</blockquote></p><p> This still doesn't prevent people from trying to forecast where things will go next. As investors, we want to appear like we know what the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s performance will be in the future. Then we can position our portfolios accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>这仍然不能阻止人们试图预测事情下一步会走向何方。作为投资者，我们希望看起来我们知道什么<b>标普500</b>的性能将在未来。然后我们可以相应地定位我们的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> But is there a data point out there that can signal with any level of accuracy what future returns will be? Read on to find out.</p><p><blockquote>但是，有没有一个数据点可以准确地预测未来的回报呢？请继续阅读，找出答案。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2869216c7d0cbc4c220f60d370cc7938\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Not a bad&nbsp;indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不错的指标</b></blockquote></p><p> Every once in a while, I think the Shiller&nbsp;price-to-earnings(P/E) ratio, otherwise known as the cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio, can provide a high-level view as to what prospective returns might be over the next decade.This&nbsp;metric is the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 using the average net income of the previous 10 years, adjusted for inflation.</p><p><blockquote>我认为席勒市盈率（P/E），也称为周期调整市盈率（CAPE），可以时不时地提供未来十年可能的预期回报的高级视图。该指标是标普500的市盈率使用过去 10 年的平均净利润，经通货膨胀调整。</blockquote></p><p> If that sounds like a mouthful, don't worry. The objective of this data point is to smooth out any fluctuations in earnings. The highest it has ever been previously was in 1929 and 2000, and these times directly preceded bear markets. As you can see below, we are currently at the second highest level in history.</p><p><blockquote>如果这听起来像一口，不要担心。该数据点的目的是平滑收益的任何波动。此前的最高水平是在 1929 年和 2000 年，而这些时间正好发生在熊市之前。正如您在下面看到的，我们目前处于历史第二高的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7fb9cd4886d330700f25d58806f67a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>S&amp;P 500 SHILLER CAPE RATIO DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS 提供的标普500·席勒开普比率数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> According to Advisor Perspectives, which provides news and commentary for financial advisors, the CAPE ratio explained an incredible 90% of the variation in returns from 1995 to 2020. In other words, for an asset class that's completely random, this is as accurate an indicator as we're going to get.</p><p><blockquote>根据为财务顾问提供新闻和评论的顾问视角，CAPE比率解释了1995年至2020年令人难以置信的90%的回报变化。换句话说，对于完全随机的资产类别，这是我们所能得到的最准确的指标。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 has historically&nbsp;returned an average of 10% per year. But based on today's Shiller P/E ratio of 38, the market could be in for disappointing returns in 2022 and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>标普500历来平均每年回报率为10%。但根据目前 38 的席勒市盈率，市场在 2022 年及以后的回报可能会令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> However, I don't think investors should panic just yet. The Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 and the coronavirus pandemic led to unprecedented amounts of government stimulus to support economic growth. Even with an elevated CAPE ratio over the past 10 years, the stock market just kept climbing higher. Credit the Federal Reserve for perhaps distorting the correlation between the Shiller P/E ratio and future returns.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我认为投资者现在还不应该恐慌。2008年和2009年的大衰退以及冠状病毒疫情导致政府采取了前所未有的刺激措施来支持经济增长。尽管过去 10 年 CAPE 比率有所上升，但股市仍在继续攀升。归功于美联储可能扭曲了席勒市盈率和未来回报之间的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What should&nbsp;investors do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者该怎么办？</b></blockquote></p><p> I firmly believe that you should only invest money in the stock market that you don't need for the next five years. This is because in the near term, the market is extremely unpredictable, but over longer time horizons, the probability of a positive return increases dramatically.</p><p><blockquote>我坚信，你应该只把未来五年不需要的钱投入股市。这是因为在短期内，市场极其不可预测，但从长远来看，正回报的概率会急剧增加。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, if you're looking to put capital to work right now when interest rates are near zero, you really don't have any other option than to invest in the stock market. Although the Shiller P/E ratio might signal a poor decade of returns ahead, where else would you park your money?</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，如果你想在利率接近于零的时候投入资金，你真的别无选择，只能投资股市。尽管席勒市盈率可能预示着未来十年的回报率不佳，但你还会把钱放在哪里呢？</blockquote></p><p> I believe that owning a well-diversified portfolio (at least 25 stocks) of competitively advantaged businesses that have proven track records and solid growth prospects is the best&nbsp;strategy&nbsp;you can pursue. Names like&nbsp;<b>Home Depot</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:HD)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Starbucks</b>(NASDAQ:SBUX)immediately come to mind.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，拥有一个多元化的投资组合（至少 25 只股票），这些投资组合由具有竞争优势的企业组成，这些企业已被证明具有良好的业绩记录和稳健的增长前景，是您可以追求的最佳策略。类似的名字<b>家得宝</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：HD）和<b>星巴克</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SBUX）立即浮现在脑海中。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;home-improvement giant&nbsp;has grown profits 16% annually over the past 10 years, is able to outshine competitors thanks to its massive scale, and still has huge expansion opportunities thanks to a robust U.S. housing market.</p><p><blockquote>这家家装巨头在过去10年中利润每年增长16%，由于其庞大的规模，能够超越竞争对手，并且由于美国房地产市场的强劲，仍然拥有巨大的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> The giant coffeehouse chain possesses a powerful brand, supported by a top-notch loyalty program and premium status that resonates strongly with consumers. Starbucks' management estimates that by 2030, there'll be a&nbsp;whopping 55,000&nbsp;locations worldwide, 63%&nbsp;higher&nbsp;than today's count.</p><p><blockquote>这家巨型咖啡馆连锁店拥有强大的品牌，由一流的忠诚度计划和优质地位支撑，引起了消费者的强烈共鸣。星巴克管理层估计，到 2030 年，全球将有多达 55,000 家门店，比现在的数字高出 63%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Focus on what really matters</b></p><p><blockquote><b>专注于真正重要的事情</b></blockquote></p><p> No matter what the Shiller P/E ratio says, I think Home Depot and Starbucks will continue to do well and be solid additions to anyone's portfolio. This is what investors must focus on. Concentrate intensely on the quality of the companies you own, and you'll surely do well over time.</p><p><blockquote>无论席勒市盈率怎么说，我认为家得宝和星巴克将继续表现良好，并成为任何人投资组合的坚实补充。这是投资者必须重点关注的。高度关注你所拥有的公司的质量，随着时间的推移，你肯定会做得很好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Trying to time the market based on whether you think it's cheap or expensive is not a game you want to play. Adding savings at regular intervals -- known as&nbsp;dollar-cost averaging-- reduces any biases you may have andallows you to improve your cost basis on stocks you buy.</p><p><blockquote>试图根据你认为它是便宜还是昂贵来判断市场时机并不是你想玩的游戏。定期增加储蓄（称为美元成本平均）可以减少您可能存在的任何偏见，并允许您改善购买股票的成本基础。</blockquote></p><p> We're living in interesting times. There's still lots of uncertainty in the market today with no shortage of so-called experts telling us what we should do with our money. While the Shiller P/E ratio is a tool you can add to your investing arsenal, ignore the noise and keep your eyes on the long term.</p><p><blockquote>我们生活在一个有趣的时代。今天的市场上仍然有很多不确定性，不乏所谓的专家告诉我们应该用我们的钱做什么。虽然席勒市盈率是你可以添加到投资武器库中的一个工具，但请忽略噪音，着眼于长远。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does This Wildly Accurate S&P 500 Ratio Signal Doom for Investors in 2022?<blockquote>这种极其准确的标普500比率是否预示着投资者在 2022 年的厄运？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes This Wildly Accurate S&P 500 Ratio Signal Doom for Investors in 2022?<blockquote>这种极其准确的标普500比率是否预示着投资者在 2022 年的厄运？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Predicting stock market performance is a near-impossible task.</li>  <li>The Shiller P/E ratio may be as accurate an indicator as there is.</li>  <li>But investors would still do well to focus on the long term.</li> </ul> If someone ever asks me what I think the market is going to do next, I usually reply by saying I have no idea. I believe most investors would be wise to adopt this philosophy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预测股市表现几乎是一项不可能完成的任务。</li><li>席勒市盈率可能是最准确的指标。</li><li>但投资者最好还是着眼于长期。</li></ul>如果有人问我，我认为市场接下来会做什么，我通常会回答说我不知道。我相信大多数投资者采用这种理念是明智的。</blockquote></p><p> This still doesn't prevent people from trying to forecast where things will go next. As investors, we want to appear like we know what the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s performance will be in the future. Then we can position our portfolios accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>这仍然不能阻止人们试图预测事情下一步会走向何方。作为投资者，我们希望看起来我们知道什么<b>标普500</b>的性能将在未来。然后我们可以相应地定位我们的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> But is there a data point out there that can signal with any level of accuracy what future returns will be? Read on to find out.</p><p><blockquote>但是，有没有一个数据点可以准确地预测未来的回报呢？请继续阅读，找出答案。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2869216c7d0cbc4c220f60d370cc7938\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Not a bad&nbsp;indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不错的指标</b></blockquote></p><p> Every once in a while, I think the Shiller&nbsp;price-to-earnings(P/E) ratio, otherwise known as the cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio, can provide a high-level view as to what prospective returns might be over the next decade.This&nbsp;metric is the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 using the average net income of the previous 10 years, adjusted for inflation.</p><p><blockquote>我认为席勒市盈率（P/E），也称为周期调整市盈率（CAPE），可以时不时地提供未来十年可能的预期回报的高级视图。该指标是标普500的市盈率使用过去 10 年的平均净利润，经通货膨胀调整。</blockquote></p><p> If that sounds like a mouthful, don't worry. The objective of this data point is to smooth out any fluctuations in earnings. The highest it has ever been previously was in 1929 and 2000, and these times directly preceded bear markets. As you can see below, we are currently at the second highest level in history.</p><p><blockquote>如果这听起来像一口，不要担心。该数据点的目的是平滑收益的任何波动。此前的最高水平是在 1929 年和 2000 年，而这些时间正好发生在熊市之前。正如您在下面看到的，我们目前处于历史第二高的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7fb9cd4886d330700f25d58806f67a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>S&amp;P 500 SHILLER CAPE RATIO DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS 提供的标普500·席勒开普比率数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> According to Advisor Perspectives, which provides news and commentary for financial advisors, the CAPE ratio explained an incredible 90% of the variation in returns from 1995 to 2020. In other words, for an asset class that's completely random, this is as accurate an indicator as we're going to get.</p><p><blockquote>根据为财务顾问提供新闻和评论的顾问视角，CAPE比率解释了1995年至2020年令人难以置信的90%的回报变化。换句话说，对于完全随机的资产类别，这是我们所能得到的最准确的指标。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 has historically&nbsp;returned an average of 10% per year. But based on today's Shiller P/E ratio of 38, the market could be in for disappointing returns in 2022 and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>标普500历来平均每年回报率为10%。但根据目前 38 的席勒市盈率，市场在 2022 年及以后的回报可能会令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> However, I don't think investors should panic just yet. The Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 and the coronavirus pandemic led to unprecedented amounts of government stimulus to support economic growth. Even with an elevated CAPE ratio over the past 10 years, the stock market just kept climbing higher. Credit the Federal Reserve for perhaps distorting the correlation between the Shiller P/E ratio and future returns.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我认为投资者现在还不应该恐慌。2008年和2009年的大衰退以及冠状病毒疫情导致政府采取了前所未有的刺激措施来支持经济增长。尽管过去 10 年 CAPE 比率有所上升，但股市仍在继续攀升。归功于美联储可能扭曲了席勒市盈率和未来回报之间的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What should&nbsp;investors do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者该怎么办？</b></blockquote></p><p> I firmly believe that you should only invest money in the stock market that you don't need for the next five years. This is because in the near term, the market is extremely unpredictable, but over longer time horizons, the probability of a positive return increases dramatically.</p><p><blockquote>我坚信，你应该只把未来五年不需要的钱投入股市。这是因为在短期内，市场极其不可预测，但从长远来看，正回报的概率会急剧增加。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, if you're looking to put capital to work right now when interest rates are near zero, you really don't have any other option than to invest in the stock market. Although the Shiller P/E ratio might signal a poor decade of returns ahead, where else would you park your money?</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，如果你想在利率接近于零的时候投入资金，你真的别无选择，只能投资股市。尽管席勒市盈率可能预示着未来十年的回报率不佳，但你还会把钱放在哪里呢？</blockquote></p><p> I believe that owning a well-diversified portfolio (at least 25 stocks) of competitively advantaged businesses that have proven track records and solid growth prospects is the best&nbsp;strategy&nbsp;you can pursue. Names like&nbsp;<b>Home Depot</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:HD)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Starbucks</b>(NASDAQ:SBUX)immediately come to mind.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，拥有一个多元化的投资组合（至少 25 只股票），这些投资组合由具有竞争优势的企业组成，这些企业已被证明具有良好的业绩记录和稳健的增长前景，是您可以追求的最佳策略。类似的名字<b>家得宝</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：HD）和<b>星巴克</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SBUX）立即浮现在脑海中。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;home-improvement giant&nbsp;has grown profits 16% annually over the past 10 years, is able to outshine competitors thanks to its massive scale, and still has huge expansion opportunities thanks to a robust U.S. housing market.</p><p><blockquote>这家家装巨头在过去10年中利润每年增长16%，由于其庞大的规模，能够超越竞争对手，并且由于美国房地产市场的强劲，仍然拥有巨大的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> The giant coffeehouse chain possesses a powerful brand, supported by a top-notch loyalty program and premium status that resonates strongly with consumers. Starbucks' management estimates that by 2030, there'll be a&nbsp;whopping 55,000&nbsp;locations worldwide, 63%&nbsp;higher&nbsp;than today's count.</p><p><blockquote>这家巨型咖啡馆连锁店拥有强大的品牌，由一流的忠诚度计划和优质地位支撑，引起了消费者的强烈共鸣。星巴克管理层估计，到 2030 年，全球将有多达 55,000 家门店，比现在的数字高出 63%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Focus on what really matters</b></p><p><blockquote><b>专注于真正重要的事情</b></blockquote></p><p> No matter what the Shiller P/E ratio says, I think Home Depot and Starbucks will continue to do well and be solid additions to anyone's portfolio. This is what investors must focus on. Concentrate intensely on the quality of the companies you own, and you'll surely do well over time.</p><p><blockquote>无论席勒市盈率怎么说，我认为家得宝和星巴克将继续表现良好，并成为任何人投资组合的坚实补充。这是投资者必须重点关注的。高度关注你所拥有的公司的质量，随着时间的推移，你肯定会做得很好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Trying to time the market based on whether you think it's cheap or expensive is not a game you want to play. Adding savings at regular intervals -- known as&nbsp;dollar-cost averaging-- reduces any biases you may have andallows you to improve your cost basis on stocks you buy.</p><p><blockquote>试图根据你认为它是便宜还是昂贵来判断市场时机并不是你想玩的游戏。定期增加储蓄（称为美元成本平均）可以减少您可能存在的任何偏见，并允许您改善购买股票的成本基础。</blockquote></p><p> We're living in interesting times. There's still lots of uncertainty in the market today with no shortage of so-called experts telling us what we should do with our money. While the Shiller P/E ratio is a tool you can add to your investing arsenal, ignore the noise and keep your eyes on the long term.</p><p><blockquote>我们生活在一个有趣的时代。今天的市场上仍然有很多不确定性，不乏所谓的专家告诉我们应该用我们的钱做什么。虽然席勒市盈率是你可以添加到投资武器库中的一个工具，但请忽略噪音，着眼于长远。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/22/wildly-accurate-sp-500-ratio-signal-doom-2022/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HD":"家得宝",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/22/wildly-accurate-sp-500-ratio-signal-doom-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164868978","content_text":"Key Points\n\nPredicting stock market performance is a near-impossible task.\nThe Shiller P/E ratio may be as accurate an indicator as there is.\nBut investors would still do well to focus on the long term.\n\nIf someone ever asks me what I think the market is going to do next, I usually reply by saying I have no idea. I believe most investors would be wise to adopt this philosophy.\nThis still doesn't prevent people from trying to forecast where things will go next. As investors, we want to appear like we know what the S&P 500's performance will be in the future. Then we can position our portfolios accordingly.\nBut is there a data point out there that can signal with any level of accuracy what future returns will be? Read on to find out.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nNot a bad indicator\nEvery once in a while, I think the Shiller price-to-earnings(P/E) ratio, otherwise known as the cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio, can provide a high-level view as to what prospective returns might be over the next decade.This metric is the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 using the average net income of the previous 10 years, adjusted for inflation.\nIf that sounds like a mouthful, don't worry. The objective of this data point is to smooth out any fluctuations in earnings. The highest it has ever been previously was in 1929 and 2000, and these times directly preceded bear markets. As you can see below, we are currently at the second highest level in history.\nS&P 500 SHILLER CAPE RATIO DATA BY YCHARTS.\nAccording to Advisor Perspectives, which provides news and commentary for financial advisors, the CAPE ratio explained an incredible 90% of the variation in returns from 1995 to 2020. In other words, for an asset class that's completely random, this is as accurate an indicator as we're going to get.\nThe S&P 500 has historically returned an average of 10% per year. But based on today's Shiller P/E ratio of 38, the market could be in for disappointing returns in 2022 and beyond.\nHowever, I don't think investors should panic just yet. The Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 and the coronavirus pandemic led to unprecedented amounts of government stimulus to support economic growth. Even with an elevated CAPE ratio over the past 10 years, the stock market just kept climbing higher. Credit the Federal Reserve for perhaps distorting the correlation between the Shiller P/E ratio and future returns.\nWhat should investors do?\nI firmly believe that you should only invest money in the stock market that you don't need for the next five years. This is because in the near term, the market is extremely unpredictable, but over longer time horizons, the probability of a positive return increases dramatically.\nWith that in mind, if you're looking to put capital to work right now when interest rates are near zero, you really don't have any other option than to invest in the stock market. Although the Shiller P/E ratio might signal a poor decade of returns ahead, where else would you park your money?\nI believe that owning a well-diversified portfolio (at least 25 stocks) of competitively advantaged businesses that have proven track records and solid growth prospects is the best strategy you can pursue. Names like Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Starbucks(NASDAQ:SBUX)immediately come to mind.\nThe home-improvement giant has grown profits 16% annually over the past 10 years, is able to outshine competitors thanks to its massive scale, and still has huge expansion opportunities thanks to a robust U.S. housing market.\nThe giant coffeehouse chain possesses a powerful brand, supported by a top-notch loyalty program and premium status that resonates strongly with consumers. Starbucks' management estimates that by 2030, there'll be a whopping 55,000 locations worldwide, 63% higher than today's count.\nFocus on what really matters\nNo matter what the Shiller P/E ratio says, I think Home Depot and Starbucks will continue to do well and be solid additions to anyone's portfolio. This is what investors must focus on. Concentrate intensely on the quality of the companies you own, and you'll surely do well over time.\nTrying to time the market based on whether you think it's cheap or expensive is not a game you want to play. Adding savings at regular intervals -- known as dollar-cost averaging-- reduces any biases you may have andallows you to improve your cost basis on stocks you buy.\nWe're living in interesting times. There's still lots of uncertainty in the market today with no shortage of so-called experts telling us what we should do with our money. 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