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为你而等待

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- 为你而等待为你而等待
  ·2025-01-09
  $上证指数(000001.SH)$
  723 评论
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- 为你而等待为你而等待
  ·2024-11-29
  $大自然药业(UPC)$ 垃圾天天跌
  917 评论
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- 为你而等待为你而等待
  ·2023-12-05
  这么多年原地踏步。还小🐮市。扯淡
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,293 评论
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- 为你而等待为你而等待
  ·2022-10-05
  不想
  美股迎强劲四季度开局，真要熊转牛了？
  投资者对美联储政策拐点的预期能否成为现实？　　经历了艰难的三季度之后，美股在10月迎来强劲反弹。道指两个交易日上涨近1600点，标普500指数上涨近6%。经济数据表现不佳的“坏消息”开始被视为美联储政策可能转向的“好消息”，市场风险偏好迅速回暖。　　统计显示，四季度往往是美股熊市结束的起点，这一次历史是否会再次重演？　　美国9月ISM制造业指数降至28个月低位50.9，进一步逼近荣枯线，工厂订单月率继续回落。
  美股迎强劲四季度开局，真要熊转牛了？
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- 为你而等待为你而等待
  ·2021-07-28
  $普普文化(CPOP)$这股会废了。
  1,687 评论
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href=https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资者对美联储政策拐点的预期能否成为现实？经历了艰难的三季度之后，美股在10月迎来强劲反弹。道指两个交易日上涨近1600点，标普500指数上涨近6%。经济数据表现不佳的“坏消息”开始被视为美联储政策可能转向的“好消息”，市场风险偏好迅速回暖。统计显示，四季度往往是美股熊市结束的起点，这一次历史是否会再次重演？市场押注美联储将“松口”美国9月ISM制造业指数降至28个月低位50.9，进一步逼近荣枯线...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 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Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273971138","content_text":"投资者对美联储政策拐点的预期能否成为现实？经历了艰难的三季度之后，美股在10月迎来强劲反弹。道指两个交易日上涨近1600点，标普500指数上涨近6%。经济数据表现不佳的“坏消息”开始被视为美联储政策可能转向的“好消息”，市场风险偏好迅速回暖。统计显示，四季度往往是美股熊市结束的起点，这一次历史是否会再次重演？市场押注美联储将“松口”美国9月ISM制造业指数降至28个月低位50.9，进一步逼近荣枯线，工厂订单月率继续回落。与此同时，美国上月的职位空缺从之前的1120万降至1010万，这被认为随着经济放缓工作机会正在变少，炙手可热的劳动力市场可能面临降温。疲软的经济前景令外界开始削减美联储大幅加息的押注，受此影响，各期限美债收益率全线回落，基准10年期国债收益率降至3.583%，上周该项收益率一度突破4%，美元指数一度逼近110关口，较上周创下的20年高位回落下跌超3.5%。与此同时，周二澳大利亚联储意外仅加息25基点，以及上周英国央行入市干预，令政策放松预期持续发酵。德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）表示，虽然股市肯定已达到超卖状态，但“对央行可能很快转向更温和立场的猜测越来越多”也有助于提振市场情绪。根据芝商所CME利率观察工具FedWatch，预计年内剩余两次会议加息125基点的概率为60%，高于上周的47%，同时本轮加息周期终点有望在明年3月出现，利率终值预期回落至4.43%。RBC Capital Markets首席美国经济学家波切利（Tom Porcelli）表示：“投资者关注的是，在市场面临诸多压力的情况下，美联储是否会坚持所有这些关于掩盖通胀的言论。毫无疑问，美联储希望控制通胀。”他分析道：“更大的问题是，在通货膨胀恢复到他们满意的水平之前，其他因素是否会影响他们的计划？”历史数据也显示，10月开始的四季度往往是美股“转折点”。Stock Trader’s Almanac 的数据显示，二战后美股熊市中有超过70%在10月结束。此外，2022年也是美国中期选举年，今年选举将于11月8日举行。统计发现，中期选举年的10月表现尤为出色。同时，中期选举年的第四季度与大选年前第一和第二季度，是市场连续三个季度表现最好的季度。这期间，道琼斯工业指数平均涨幅为19.3%，标准普尔500指数涨幅为20.0%（自1949年以来），纳斯达克指数为29.3%（自1971年以来）。财富管理公司Stifel首席股票策略师班尼斯特（Barry Bannister）预计，标准普尔500指数正在触底，市场在今年第四季度至2023年初之间将出现积极的催化剂。反弹持续性有待观察虽然股指上涨带来了乐观情绪，但也有不少机构认为，消极的经济基本面可能压倒季节性趋势。Ameriprise Financial首席市场策略师萨林迪恩（Anthony Saglindene）表示，在历史上的某些时期，10月份可能会引发华尔街的恐慌，包括1987年和1929年的两场动荡。 “我认为，如果股市经历了非常困难的一年，季节性因素都应该予以折中，因为还有其他一些宏观因素在影响市场，你需要更清楚地了解那些推低股市的宏观因素。”他说。富国银行也发出警告称，随着对美国潜在衰退的警告不断增加，有关美联储转向可能性的传言再次出现，这表明投资者有可能“再次低估美联储在寻求解决通胀问题时的决心”。摩根士丹利首席股票策略师威尔逊（Mike Wilson）本周继续预警美股跌势将持续到年底，部分原因是全球主要经济体的美元供应减少，即使短期出现反弹，接下来股票、债券、大宗商品和货币的波动性可能会继续上升。威尔逊表示，问题在于，随着利率持续上升，美联储不断缩减其资产负债表，它可能会在世界某些地方，甚至在美国引发危机。这是因为更高的利率使公司和家庭借贷成本更高，从而拖累美国经济，而美元走强则使新兴经济体更难偿还以美元计价的债务。威尔逊认为，流动性问题已经开始浮出水面。“美元对风险市场的走向非常重要，这就是为什么我们如此密切地跟踪M2的增长， 美国、欧元区和日本等主要经济体的M2在2021达到峰值，此后下降了4万亿美元。跟踪这些经济体的货币供应变化率很重要，因为这往往与股市走势密切相关。截至目前，美联储并未释放有关货币政策力度调整的信号，包括美联储主席鲍威尔、副主席布雷纳德在内的多位官员均在近期讲话中表示，不会冒险提前降息，因为担心通胀可能变得更加根深蒂固。威尔逊表示，无论如何，在美联储最终转向之前，股市可能会走低，不过对这一政策变化的预期可能足以引发股市大幅但短暂的反弹。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"QQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"DJX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3044,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":801386508,"gmtCreate":1627482992004,"gmtModify":1627483735704,"author":{"id":"3580427404488811","authorId":"3580427404488811","name":"为你而等待","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb26424252bcc2edf52fbfdf63f89d11","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580427404488811","idStr":"3580427404488811"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPOP\">$普普文化(CPOP)$</a>这股会废了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPOP\">$普普文化(CPOP)$</a>这股会废了。","text":"$普普文化(CPOP)$这股会废了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801386508","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}