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- Strider88Strider88
  ·2021-09-11
  What a dumb article
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Strider88Strider88
  ·2021-06-18
  Funny how you guys keep posting the same shiz this week
  AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>
  Summary I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC. For investors, the gravitational pul
  AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>
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- Strider88Strider88
  ·2021-03-18
  Agreed
  7 Reasons to Avoid the Reddit Stocks Like the Plague<blockquote>像瘟疫一样避开 Reddit 股票的 7 个理由</blockquote>
  GameStop, AMC, Sundial, and many more Reddit stocks are bad news for investors.No matter how long yo
  7 Reasons to Avoid the Reddit Stocks Like the Plague<blockquote>像瘟疫一样避开 Reddit 股票的 7 个理由</blockquote>
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- Strider88Strider88
  ·2021-03-18
  Nice
  2 Tech Stocks That Could Make You Rich<blockquote>2只可以让你致富的科技股</blockquote>
  These tech companies are disrupting the status quo -- that could mean big gains for investors. As t
  2 Tech Stocks That Could Make You Rich<blockquote>2只可以让你致富的科技股</blockquote>
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a dumb article","listText":"What a dumb article","text":"What a dumb article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881327742","repostId":"1105230157","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166679425,"gmtCreate":1624008672967,"gmtModify":1631892153608,"author":{"id":"3579088932518063","authorId":"3579088932518063","name":"Strider88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579088932518063","idStr":"3579088932518063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Funny how you guys keep posting the same shiz this week","listText":"Funny how you guys keep posting the same shiz this week","text":"Funny how you guys keep posting the same shiz this week","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166679425","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1131310015?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上指导你在AMC。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望空头挤压的投机者来说，这是一个百年历史的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们该如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我曾尝试过AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）。读完两篇有趣的文章后，我又回来了。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果我看得更远一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克--艾萨克的朋友们可能从未用过这个绰号--我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格的肩膀是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>”，比尔·盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用这两者，然后为您划清界限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者与交易者与投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>杰森·茨威格 (Jason Zweig) 在他的 2021 年 6 月 11 日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>列：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>无论何时你购买任何金融资产，因为你有预感，或者只是为了刺激，或者因为某个名人大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买，你都不是在投资。你绝对是交易者：刚刚购买资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：一个认为别人会比你付出更多的人。“投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值增长。投机者依赖于外部回报来源：主要是别人是否会付出更多，而不管基本价值如何。”</i>那么，为什么 AMC 的股价一直在飙升呢？我有一个非正式的数据源，即我6月4日AMC文章上的300多条评论。收益、收入、资产价值增长<i>没有</i>上来了。随之而来的是 “挤空 ”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将 AMC 的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022 年 AMC 盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的时间框架供参考</i>是2017年至2019年。早期数据的相关性较小，因为 AMC 在 2016 年进行了一次重大收购，而 2020 年和 2021 年的数据的相关性更差，因为 COVID。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要的假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？无论是订户还是内容，流媒体的稳步增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。让电影上座率接近 19 年的水平将是一个小奇迹。下降10%甚至20%的可能性要大得多。正如您在上表中看到的，我使用所有三个票房假设来预测 2022 年 AMC 每股收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我认为 AMC 的份额会比 17-19 年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定是因为 COVID 的财务压力而退出的。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>入学毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为 AMC 在 17-19 年保持稳定，但我也可以想象，电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为 AMC 必须与越来越多急需内容的流媒体服务商竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品支出占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我转发令人震惊的低数字。AMC 及其同行可能会承担食品和饮料成本<i>对我们电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私自己的Jujifruits，节省一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为 AMC 的小幅增长趋势将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营运开支</i></b>是剧院人员、水电费等费用。我认为运营费用率的逐渐上升趋势将继续，原因有二。其一，这些运营费用在很大程度上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的工资水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在准备好了我的收益和现金流模型：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22 年的预测是通过 “毛利润 ”行根据上述假设确定的。我的管理费用预测假设 AMC 正在努力在充满挑战的时期限制费用：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧╱摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记应该会减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着 AMC 用其筹集的股本偿还部分债务，应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的 2022 年每股收益的最佳情况大致是盈亏平衡。更有可能的是小幅亏损。现金流应该会更糟，因为 AMC 为保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力而需要的现金资本支出应该会超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，那可能是因为 AMC 管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能多地榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC 的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚到任何实质性的钱。由于技术变革，其业务长期下滑，其新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪物公司——网飞、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着 AMC 目前 55 美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的名言来说，<i>交易场所</i>“卖掉莫蒂默，卖掉!”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——空头挤压：一个历史警示故事</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，讲述了一个20世纪20年代初的短暂挤压的生动故事。就在一个世纪前。我将引用书中的一段话，说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，故事的结局是如何进行猜测的。所以，给自己倒点非法的胡言乱语吧（我们正走向禁酒令时代），然后继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922 年，空头追逐克拉伦斯的股票，将其从 50 美元跌至 40 美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用一个短挤压来复仇。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述故事的节选：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了 33,000 股 Piggly Wiggly 股票，主要来自卖空者；不到一周，他就把股票总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股流通股的一半。桑德斯收购活动的有效性显而易见；到 1923 年 1 月下旬，他的价格已经上涨了 60 多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的 “猿猴 ”所取代，而猿猴在推高价格方面表现得更好。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群类人猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿类很精明——很有趣。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他发了财，证明了一个可怜的南方男孩是如何教训城里的骗子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿猴把它粘在对冲基金上。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能击败了他的对手，他也会发现自己赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，角落可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他将把其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值 55 美元的股票。他在2月份的广告中规定，公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付，每期10美元</i>很聪明，不是吗？编号：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>第三天结束时，认购股份总数仍低于25,000股，已进行的销售被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次驾驶失败了。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8 月 22 日，Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son 的纽约拍卖公司.以每股 1 美元的价格拍卖了 1500 股 Piggly Wiggly 股票.次年春天，桑德斯进入了正式的破产程序”。</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家要小心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今的 AMC 股票持有者无疑让许多卖空者日子不好过。但是，在 AMC 目前 280 亿美元的市值之上，真的有足够多的新买家来收购现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利持续拖累股票的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 的股东们，不要为克拉伦斯-桑德斯的惨痛胜利而欢呼。拿着每股 55 美元就跑吧。快的。在其他投机者先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上指导你在AMC。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望空头挤压的投机者来说，这是一个百年历史的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们该如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我曾尝试过AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）。读完两篇有趣的文章后，我又回来了。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果我看得更远一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克--艾萨克的朋友们可能从未用过这个绰号--我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格的肩膀是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>”，比尔·盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用这两者，然后为您划清界限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者与交易者与投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>杰森·茨威格 (Jason Zweig) 在他的 2021 年 6 月 11 日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>列：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>无论何时你购买任何金融资产，因为你有预感，或者只是为了刺激，或者因为某个名人大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买，你都不是在投资。你绝对是交易者：刚刚购买资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：一个认为别人会比你付出更多的人。“投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值增长。投机者依赖于外部回报来源：主要是别人是否会付出更多，而不管基本价值如何。”</i>那么，为什么 AMC 的股价一直在飙升呢？我有一个非正式的数据源，即我6月4日AMC文章上的300多条评论。收益、收入、资产价值增长<i>没有</i>上来了。随之而来的是 “挤空 ”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将 AMC 的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022 年 AMC 盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的时间框架供参考</i>是2017年至2019年。早期数据的相关性较小，因为 AMC 在 2016 年进行了一次重大收购，而 2020 年和 2021 年的数据的相关性更差，因为 COVID。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要的假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？无论是订户还是内容，流媒体的稳步增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。让电影上座率接近 19 年的水平将是一个小奇迹。下降10%甚至20%的可能性要大得多。正如您在上表中看到的，我使用所有三个票房假设来预测 2022 年 AMC 每股收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我认为 AMC 的份额会比 17-19 年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定是因为 COVID 的财务压力而退出的。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>入学毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为 AMC 在 17-19 年保持稳定，但我也可以想象，电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为 AMC 必须与越来越多急需内容的流媒体服务商竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品支出占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我转发令人震惊的低数字。AMC 及其同行可能会承担食品和饮料成本<i>对我们电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私自己的Jujifruits，节省一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为 AMC 的小幅增长趋势将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营运开支</i></b>是剧院人员、水电费等费用。我认为运营费用率的逐渐上升趋势将继续，原因有二。其一，这些运营费用在很大程度上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的工资水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在准备好了我的收益和现金流模型：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22 年的预测是通过 “毛利润 ”行根据上述假设确定的。我的管理费用预测假设 AMC 正在努力在充满挑战的时期限制费用：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧╱摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记应该会减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着 AMC 用其筹集的股本偿还部分债务，应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的 2022 年每股收益的最佳情况大致是盈亏平衡。更有可能的是小幅亏损。现金流应该会更糟，因为 AMC 为保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力而需要的现金资本支出应该会超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，那可能是因为 AMC 管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能多地榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC 的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚到任何实质性的钱。由于技术变革，其业务长期下滑，其新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪物公司——网飞、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着 AMC 目前 55 美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的名言来说，<i>交易场所</i>“卖掉莫蒂默，卖掉!”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——空头挤压：一个历史警示故事</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，讲述了一个20世纪20年代初的短暂挤压的生动故事。就在一个世纪前。我将引用书中的一段话，说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，故事的结局是如何进行猜测的。所以，给自己倒点非法的胡言乱语吧（我们正走向禁酒令时代），然后继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922 年，空头追逐克拉伦斯的股票，将其从 50 美元跌至 40 美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用一个短挤压来复仇。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述故事的节选：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了 33,000 股 Piggly Wiggly 股票，主要来自卖空者；不到一周，他就把股票总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股流通股的一半。桑德斯收购活动的有效性显而易见；到 1923 年 1 月下旬，他的价格已经上涨了 60 多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的 “猿猴 ”所取代，而猿猴在推高价格方面表现得更好。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群类人猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿类很精明——很有趣。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他发了财，证明了一个可怜的南方男孩是如何教训城里的骗子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿猴把它粘在对冲基金上。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能击败了他的对手，他也会发现自己赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，角落可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他将把其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值 55 美元的股票。他在2月份的广告中规定，公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付，每期10美元</i>很聪明，不是吗？编号：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>第三天结束时，认购股份总数仍低于25,000股，已进行的销售被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次驾驶失败了。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8 月 22 日，Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son 的纽约拍卖公司.以每股 1 美元的价格拍卖了 1500 股 Piggly Wiggly 股票.次年春天，桑德斯进入了正式的破产程序”。</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家要小心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今的 AMC 股票持有者无疑让许多卖空者日子不好过。但是，在 AMC 目前 280 亿美元的市值之上，真的有足够多的新买家来收购现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利持续拖累股票的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 的股东们，不要为克拉伦斯-桑德斯的惨痛胜利而欢呼。拿着每股 55 美元就跑吧。快的。在其他投机者先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327170566,"gmtCreate":1616074199055,"gmtModify":1631892153611,"author":{"id":"3579088932518063","authorId":"3579088932518063","name":"Strider88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579088932518063","idStr":"3579088932518063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Agreed","listText":"Agreed","text":"Agreed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327170566","repostId":"1126528554","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126528554","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616070017,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1126528554?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 20:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Reasons to Avoid the Reddit Stocks Like the Plague<blockquote>像瘟疫一样避开 Reddit 股票的 7 个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126528554","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"GameStop, AMC, Sundial, and many more Reddit stocks are bad news for investors.No matter how long yo","content":"<p><b>GameStop, AMC, Sundial, and many more Reddit stocks are bad news for investors.</b>No matter how long you've been investing, there's always something new to see. Last year, investors witnessed the fastest bear market decline of at least 30% in the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s history, as well as West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures plunging deeply (but briefly) into negative territory. This year, it's beenall about the Reddit frenzy.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站、AMC、Sundial 和许多其他 Reddit 股票对投资者来说都是坏消息。</b>无论你投资了多久，总会有新的东西可看。去年，投资者见证了近年来最快的熊市跌幅至少为 30%<b>标普500</b>的历史，以及西德克萨斯中质原油期货深度（但短暂地）跌入负值区域。今年，一切都是关于Reddit的狂热。</blockquote></p><p>Without getting too far into the weeds, retail investors -- many of whom are young or novice investors -- on Reddit's WallStreetBets (WSB) community chatroom have effectively banded together to purchase shares and out-of-the-money call options on stocks with high levels of short interest. The goal of these WSB traders is to effect a short squeeze, which only fuels the upside in a momentum stock. Since most big short-sellers are institutional investors or hedge funds, the Reddit frenzy is being viewed as a battle between retail investors and the \"big money.\"</p><p><blockquote>Reddit 的 WallStreetBets (WSB) 社区聊天室中的散户投资者（其中许多是年轻或新手投资者）有效地联合起来购买股票和价外看涨期权期权具有高水平的空头兴趣。这些 WSB 交易员的目标是实现空头挤压，这只会推动动量股票的上涨空间。由于大多数大卖空者是机构投资者或对冲基金，Reddit 的狂热被视为散户投资者和“大资金”之间的战斗。</blockquote></p><p>While a number of Reddit stocks have skyrocketed, the vast majority are extremely dangerous investments. Here are seven sound reasons to avoid the Reddit stocks like the plague.</p><p><blockquote>虽然许多 Reddit 股票飙升，但绝大多数都是极其危险的投资。以下是像避开瘟疫一样避开 Reddit 股票的七个充分理由。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. They've detached from their underlying fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 他们已经脱离了基本面</b></blockquote></p><p>Arguably the biggest problem with the Reddit-stock rally is that there's no way to justify the underlying fundamentals for these companies.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，Reddit 股价上涨的最大问题是无法证明这些公司的基本面是合理的。</blockquote></p><p>Take video game and accessories retailer<b>GameStop</b>(NYSE:GME)as the perfect example. Though its e-commerce sales during the 2020 holiday season catapulted 309%,total sales still declined by 3%as a result of the company shuttering 11% of its stores. After waiting far too long to focus on digital gaming, GameStop's game plan is pretty much to close physical locations in an effort to cut costs and backpedal its way into profitability.</p><p><blockquote>视频游戏及配件零售商<b>游戏驿站</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）就是一个完美的例子。尽管其电子商务销售额在 2020 年假日季猛增 309%，但由于该公司关闭了 11% 的商店，总销售额仍下降了 3%。在等待太久才专注于数字游戏之后，GameStop 的游戏计划基本上是关闭实体门店，以削减成本并扭亏为盈。</blockquote></p><p>Then there's headphone, headset, and Bluetooth speaker-manufacturer<b>Koss</b>(NASDAQ:KOSS). After consistently trading at 0.5 to 1.1 times sales over the last decade, Koss is now valued at an estimated 11 to 12 times sales. Mind you, this is a company operating in a highly commoditized and generally low-margin industry that's lost money in three of the past four years. There'sno way to justify its valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然后是耳机、头戴式耳机和蓝牙音箱制造商<b>科斯</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：KOSS）在过去十年中，Koss 的交易价格一直是销售额的 0.5 至 1.1 倍，现在的估值估计是销售额的 11 至 12 倍。请注意，这是一家在高度商品化且利润率普遍较低的行业运营的公司，在过去四年中有三年亏损。没有办法证明它的估值是合理的。</blockquote></p><p><b>2. They're often serial diluters</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 它们通常是连续稀释剂</b></blockquote></p><p>When questionable stocks take off, you can usually count on the management teams behind these companies to use this gift as an opportunity to raise capital. In layman's terms, this means shareholders are forced to deal with dilution.</p><p><blockquote>当有问题的股票起飞时，你通常可以指望这些公司背后的管理团队利用这份礼物作为筹集资金的机会。通俗地说，这意味着股东被迫应对稀释问题。</blockquote></p><p>Canadianmarijuana stock<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)has raised more than $600 million in cash in a very short time frame. However, the numerous registered direct offerings, at-the-market offerings, and debt-to-equity swaps it undertookincreased its outstanding share countby approximately 1.15 billion shares in five months. Sundial's board also recently OK'd another mixed-shelf offering that would allow it to sell up to $1 billion in securities over time.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大大麻库存<b>日晷生长器</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）在很短的时间内筹集了超过 6 亿美元的现金。然而，它进行的众多注册直接发行、市场发行和债转股使其流通股数量在五个月内增加了约 11.5 亿股。Sundial 董事会最近还批准了另一项混合货架发行，允许其随着时间的推移出售高达 10 亿美元的证券。</blockquote></p><p>Even if Sundial were to somehow become profitable and effectively put its cash to work, it'll be almost impossible for the company to generate a meaningful per-share profit with 1.66 billion shares outstanding. Without a reverse split, Sundial could regularly flirt with delisting.</p><p><blockquote>即使 Sundial 以某种方式实现盈利并有效地将现金投入运营，该公司也几乎不可能在 16.6 亿股流通股的情况下产生有意义的每股利润。如果没有反向拆分，Sundial 可能会经常面临退市。</blockquote></p><p><b>3. They usually lose money</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 他们通常会赔钱</b></blockquote></p><p>A common theme among the Reddit stocks is that most aren't anywhere close to profitability. For instance, intimate apparel and swimwear retailer<b>Naked Brand Group</b>(NASDAQ:NAKD)has been popular both for its high level of short interest and its penny stock share price.</p><p><blockquote>Reddit 股票的一个共同主题是，大多数股票都远未盈利。例如，内衣和泳装零售商<b>裸体品牌集团</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：NAKD）因其高水平的空头兴趣和细价股股价而广受欢迎。</blockquote></p><p>However, one thing you're not going to find with this company is profits.Sales have been on the decline since 2018, and the company hasn't produced a full-year profit in at least a half-decade. While it's possible Naked Brands' shift to an e-commerce-focused model could help lower its overhead enough to make it profitable, it's far from a guarantee. The retail space is highly competitive, and even successful retailers sport only modest operating margins, at best.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这家公司有一件事你不会发现，那就是利润。自2018年以来，销售额一直在下降，该公司至少有五年没有实现全年利润。虽然裸体品牌转向以电子商务为中心的模式可能有助于降低其管理费用，从而实现盈利，但这还远不能保证。零售领域竞争激烈，即使是成功的零售商充其量也只能获得适度的营业利润。</blockquote></p><p>It's worth pointing out that GameStop and Sundial are losing quite a bit of money, too -- as are most of the other Reddit stocks I'll be mentioning below.</p><p><blockquote>值得指出的是，游戏驿站和日晷也在亏损不少——就像我下面提到的大多数其他 Reddit 股票一样。</blockquote></p><p><b>4. Some lack innovation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.有的缺乏创新</b></blockquote></p><p>Another issue with some of the Reddit stocks is that they lack true innovation. This can be seen in cryptocurrency miners<b>Riot Blockchain</b>(NASDAQ:RIOT)and<b>Marathon Digital Holdings</b>(NASDAQ:MARA), which have both been popular stocks within the WSB community.</p><p><blockquote>一些 Reddit 股票的另一个问题是它们缺乏真正的创新。这可以在加密货币矿工身上看到<b>暴动区块链</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：RIOT）和<b>马拉松数码控股</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：MARA），这两只股票都是 WSB 社区的热门股票。</blockquote></p><p>Thesecryptocurrency miningcompanies use high-powered computers to solve complex mathematical equations to validate groups of transactions (known as a block) on<b>Bitcoin</b>'s(CRYPTO:BTC)network. For doing so, they're given a block reward of 6.25 Bitcoin. That's worth close to $350,000. As the price of Bitcoin has risen, so have the share prices of Riot and Marathon Digital.</p><p><blockquote>这些加密货币挖矿公司使用高性能计算机来求解复杂的数学方程，以验证交易组（称为块）<b>比特币</b>'s(CRYPTO:BTC)网络。为此，他们将获得 6.25 比特币的奖励。那价值接近35万美元。随着比特币股价上涨，Riot 和 Marathon Digital 的股价也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The problem with these stocks is they're completely tethered to the performance of Bitcoin. Over the last decade, the world's largest digital token plunged by 80% on three separate occasions. If that were to happen again, it's not even clear if the crypto mining operating model would survive.Devoid of innovation, Riot and Marathon are essentially crossing their proverbial fingers and hoping Bitcoin goes up.</p><p><blockquote>这些股票的问题在于它们完全与比特币的表现挂钩。在过去十年中，世界上最大的数字代币在三个不同的场合暴跌了80%。如果这种情况再次发生，甚至不清楚加密货币挖矿运营模式是否会生存下去。缺乏创新，Riot 和 Marathon 本质上是在祈祷，希望比特币能够崛起。</blockquote></p><p><b>5. Quite a few are penny stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 相当一部分是细价股</b></blockquote></p><p>Retail investors in the WSB community have also been piling intopenny stocks, some of which are heavily sold short. Though penny stocks aren't inherently bad news, the vast majority of companies with share prices below $5 are \"cheap\" for a good reason.</p><p><blockquote>WSB 社区的散户投资者也一直在大量买入细价股，其中一些股票被大量卖空。尽管细价股本质上并不是坏消息，但绝大多数股价低于 5 美元的公司“便宜”是有充分理由的。</blockquote></p><p>Veterinary healthcare company<b>Zomedica</b>(NYSEMKT:ZOM)has been an especially popular penny stock with the Reddit crowd. Zomedica first received a boost in January after<i>Tiger King</i>star Carole Baskin mentioned the stock -- a mention Baskin was compensated for -- in a video posted to YouTube. Zomedica's shares gained further traction after the company announced plans to launch its Truforma point-of-care diagnostics system at the end of March.</p><p><blockquote>兽医保健公司<b>佐梅迪卡</b>(NYSEMKT:ZOM) 一直是 Reddit 人群中特别受欢迎的细价股。Zomedica 于 1 月份首次获得提振<i>虎王</i>明星卡罗尔·巴斯金 (Carole Baskin) 在 YouTube 上发布的一段视频中提到了这只股票——巴斯金因此获得了补偿。Zomedica 宣布计划于 3 月底推出 Truforma 护理点诊断系统后，该公司股价进一步上涨。</blockquote></p><p>But up to this point, Zomedica has been a developmental-stage company with no revenue. Even after Truforma officially hits the market, Wall Street is only counting on a little north of $20 million in sales by 2023. That'speanuts compared to Zomedica's $2.4 billion valuation.</p><p><blockquote>但到目前为止，Zomedica 一直是一家没有收入的开发阶段公司。即使在 Truforma 正式上市后，华尔街预计到 2023 年销售额也只有略高于 2000 万美元。与 Zomedica 24 亿美元的估值相比，这简直微不足道。</blockquote></p><p><b>6. Some may not survive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.有些可能无法存活</b></blockquote></p><p>There's also the very real possibility that some of the Reddit stocks being pumped by retail investors may not even survive.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者炒作的一些 Reddit 股票也有可能无法存活。</blockquote></p><p>Movie-theater chain<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC), arguably the most-popular WSB stock next to GameStop, came perilously close to filing for bankruptcy earlier this year. All that saved AMC was the issuance of nearly 165 million shares of AMC stock and more than $400 million in debt capital.</p><p><blockquote>电影院连锁店<b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）可以说是仅次于游戏驿站的最受欢迎的 WSB 股票，今年早些时候险些申请破产。AMC 所节省的只是发行了近 1.65 亿股 AMC 股票和超过 4 亿美元的债务资本。</blockquote></p><p>But even with this capital,it's not certain that AMC will be around in a few years. Coronavirus variants threaten to upend a return to societal norms, and select streaming services are encroaching on theaters' once-sacred space.<b>AT&amp;T</b>&nbsp;subsidiary WarnerMedia is releasing all of its movies on HBO Max this year the same day they'll hit theaters. With movie exclusivity now being called into question, AMC's best days look to be long gone.</p><p><blockquote>但即使有了这笔资金，也不确定几年后 AMC 是否会存在。冠状病毒变种有可能颠覆社会规范的回归，精选的流媒体服务正在侵占影院曾经神圣的空间。<b>AT&amp;T</b>子公司华纳媒体今年将在HBO Max上映的同一天发布其所有电影。随着电影排他性现在受到质疑，AMC最好的日子看起来早已一去不复返了。</blockquote></p><p><b>7. Margin use is a concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7. 保证金使用令人关切</b></blockquote></p><p>A seventh and final reason to avoid the Reddit stocks like the plague is thehigh amount of leverage being used by retail investors.</p><p><blockquote>像瘟疫一样避开 Reddit 股票的第七个也是最后一个原因是散户投资者使用了大量的杠杆。</blockquote></p><p>According to a Harris Poll of retail investors conducted back in September 2020, 23% had purchased options, 10% were using margin to buy equities, and another 10% were both buying equities on margin and purchasing options. In other words, 43% of all retail investors were speculating with market timing and/or using leverage in an attempt to pump up their gains.</p><p><blockquote>根据哈里斯 2020 年 9 月对散户投资者进行的民意调查，23% 的人购买了期权，10% 的人使用保证金购买股票，另外 10% 的人同时购买保证金股票和购买期权。换句话说，43%的散户投资者都在利用市场时机进行投机和/或利用杠杆来提高收益。</blockquote></p><p>The problem is that market timing doesn't work with any degree of accuracy over the long run, and stock prices can (and do) move in both directions. If equities get moving in the wrong direction with retail investors highly levered, it's possible we could see a number of Reddit stocks get absolutely throttled due to margin calls.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于，从长远来看，市场时机并不能以任何程度的准确性发挥作用，股票价格可以（而且确实）双向波动。如果散户投资者评级，股市走向错误的方向，我们可能会看到一些 Reddit 股票因利润率评级而受到绝对限制。</blockquote></p><p>There's simply no reason for fundamentally focused, long-term investors to chase any of the Reddit stocks.</p><p><blockquote>关注基本面的长期投资者根本没有理由追逐任何 Reddit 股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Reasons to Avoid the Reddit Stocks Like the Plague<blockquote>像瘟疫一样避开 Reddit 股票的 7 个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Reasons to Avoid the Reddit Stocks Like the Plague<blockquote>像瘟疫一样避开 Reddit 股票的 7 个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 20:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>GameStop, AMC, Sundial, and many more Reddit stocks are bad news for investors.</b>No matter how long you've been investing, there's always something new to see. Last year, investors witnessed the fastest bear market decline of at least 30% in the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s history, as well as West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures plunging deeply (but briefly) into negative territory. This year, it's beenall about the Reddit frenzy.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站、AMC、Sundial 和许多其他 Reddit 股票对投资者来说都是坏消息。</b>无论你投资了多久，总会有新的东西可看。去年，投资者见证了近年来最快的熊市跌幅至少为 30%<b>标普500</b>的历史，以及西德克萨斯中质原油期货深度（但短暂地）跌入负值区域。今年，一切都是关于Reddit的狂热。</blockquote></p><p>Without getting too far into the weeds, retail investors -- many of whom are young or novice investors -- on Reddit's WallStreetBets (WSB) community chatroom have effectively banded together to purchase shares and out-of-the-money call options on stocks with high levels of short interest. The goal of these WSB traders is to effect a short squeeze, which only fuels the upside in a momentum stock. Since most big short-sellers are institutional investors or hedge funds, the Reddit frenzy is being viewed as a battle between retail investors and the \"big money.\"</p><p><blockquote>Reddit 的 WallStreetBets (WSB) 社区聊天室中的散户投资者（其中许多是年轻或新手投资者）有效地联合起来购买股票和价外看涨期权期权具有高水平的空头兴趣。这些 WSB 交易员的目标是实现空头挤压，这只会推动动量股票的上涨空间。由于大多数大卖空者是机构投资者或对冲基金，Reddit 的狂热被视为散户投资者和“大资金”之间的战斗。</blockquote></p><p>While a number of Reddit stocks have skyrocketed, the vast majority are extremely dangerous investments. Here are seven sound reasons to avoid the Reddit stocks like the plague.</p><p><blockquote>虽然许多 Reddit 股票飙升，但绝大多数都是极其危险的投资。以下是像避开瘟疫一样避开 Reddit 股票的七个充分理由。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. They've detached from their underlying fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 他们已经脱离了基本面</b></blockquote></p><p>Arguably the biggest problem with the Reddit-stock rally is that there's no way to justify the underlying fundamentals for these companies.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，Reddit 股价上涨的最大问题是无法证明这些公司的基本面是合理的。</blockquote></p><p>Take video game and accessories retailer<b>GameStop</b>(NYSE:GME)as the perfect example. Though its e-commerce sales during the 2020 holiday season catapulted 309%,total sales still declined by 3%as a result of the company shuttering 11% of its stores. After waiting far too long to focus on digital gaming, GameStop's game plan is pretty much to close physical locations in an effort to cut costs and backpedal its way into profitability.</p><p><blockquote>视频游戏及配件零售商<b>游戏驿站</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）就是一个完美的例子。尽管其电子商务销售额在 2020 年假日季猛增 309%，但由于该公司关闭了 11% 的商店，总销售额仍下降了 3%。在等待太久才专注于数字游戏之后，GameStop 的游戏计划基本上是关闭实体门店，以削减成本并扭亏为盈。</blockquote></p><p>Then there's headphone, headset, and Bluetooth speaker-manufacturer<b>Koss</b>(NASDAQ:KOSS). After consistently trading at 0.5 to 1.1 times sales over the last decade, Koss is now valued at an estimated 11 to 12 times sales. Mind you, this is a company operating in a highly commoditized and generally low-margin industry that's lost money in three of the past four years. There'sno way to justify its valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然后是耳机、头戴式耳机和蓝牙音箱制造商<b>科斯</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：KOSS）在过去十年中，Koss 的交易价格一直是销售额的 0.5 至 1.1 倍，现在的估值估计是销售额的 11 至 12 倍。请注意，这是一家在高度商品化且利润率普遍较低的行业运营的公司，在过去四年中有三年亏损。没有办法证明它的估值是合理的。</blockquote></p><p><b>2. They're often serial diluters</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 它们通常是连续稀释剂</b></blockquote></p><p>When questionable stocks take off, you can usually count on the management teams behind these companies to use this gift as an opportunity to raise capital. In layman's terms, this means shareholders are forced to deal with dilution.</p><p><blockquote>当有问题的股票起飞时，你通常可以指望这些公司背后的管理团队利用这份礼物作为筹集资金的机会。通俗地说，这意味着股东被迫应对稀释问题。</blockquote></p><p>Canadianmarijuana stock<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)has raised more than $600 million in cash in a very short time frame. However, the numerous registered direct offerings, at-the-market offerings, and debt-to-equity swaps it undertookincreased its outstanding share countby approximately 1.15 billion shares in five months. Sundial's board also recently OK'd another mixed-shelf offering that would allow it to sell up to $1 billion in securities over time.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大大麻库存<b>日晷生长器</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）在很短的时间内筹集了超过 6 亿美元的现金。然而，它进行的众多注册直接发行、市场发行和债转股使其流通股数量在五个月内增加了约 11.5 亿股。Sundial 董事会最近还批准了另一项混合货架发行，允许其随着时间的推移出售高达 10 亿美元的证券。</blockquote></p><p>Even if Sundial were to somehow become profitable and effectively put its cash to work, it'll be almost impossible for the company to generate a meaningful per-share profit with 1.66 billion shares outstanding. Without a reverse split, Sundial could regularly flirt with delisting.</p><p><blockquote>即使 Sundial 以某种方式实现盈利并有效地将现金投入运营，该公司也几乎不可能在 16.6 亿股流通股的情况下产生有意义的每股利润。如果没有反向拆分，Sundial 可能会经常面临退市。</blockquote></p><p><b>3. They usually lose money</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 他们通常会赔钱</b></blockquote></p><p>A common theme among the Reddit stocks is that most aren't anywhere close to profitability. For instance, intimate apparel and swimwear retailer<b>Naked Brand Group</b>(NASDAQ:NAKD)has been popular both for its high level of short interest and its penny stock share price.</p><p><blockquote>Reddit 股票的一个共同主题是，大多数股票都远未盈利。例如，内衣和泳装零售商<b>裸体品牌集团</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：NAKD）因其高水平的空头兴趣和细价股股价而广受欢迎。</blockquote></p><p>However, one thing you're not going to find with this company is profits.Sales have been on the decline since 2018, and the company hasn't produced a full-year profit in at least a half-decade. While it's possible Naked Brands' shift to an e-commerce-focused model could help lower its overhead enough to make it profitable, it's far from a guarantee. The retail space is highly competitive, and even successful retailers sport only modest operating margins, at best.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这家公司有一件事你不会发现，那就是利润。自2018年以来，销售额一直在下降，该公司至少有五年没有实现全年利润。虽然裸体品牌转向以电子商务为中心的模式可能有助于降低其管理费用，从而实现盈利，但这还远不能保证。零售领域竞争激烈，即使是成功的零售商充其量也只能获得适度的营业利润。</blockquote></p><p>It's worth pointing out that GameStop and Sundial are losing quite a bit of money, too -- as are most of the other Reddit stocks I'll be mentioning below.</p><p><blockquote>值得指出的是，游戏驿站和日晷也在亏损不少——就像我下面提到的大多数其他 Reddit 股票一样。</blockquote></p><p><b>4. Some lack innovation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.有的缺乏创新</b></blockquote></p><p>Another issue with some of the Reddit stocks is that they lack true innovation. This can be seen in cryptocurrency miners<b>Riot Blockchain</b>(NASDAQ:RIOT)and<b>Marathon Digital Holdings</b>(NASDAQ:MARA), which have both been popular stocks within the WSB community.</p><p><blockquote>一些 Reddit 股票的另一个问题是它们缺乏真正的创新。这可以在加密货币矿工身上看到<b>暴动区块链</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：RIOT）和<b>马拉松数码控股</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：MARA），这两只股票都是 WSB 社区的热门股票。</blockquote></p><p>Thesecryptocurrency miningcompanies use high-powered computers to solve complex mathematical equations to validate groups of transactions (known as a block) on<b>Bitcoin</b>'s(CRYPTO:BTC)network. For doing so, they're given a block reward of 6.25 Bitcoin. That's worth close to $350,000. As the price of Bitcoin has risen, so have the share prices of Riot and Marathon Digital.</p><p><blockquote>这些加密货币挖矿公司使用高性能计算机来求解复杂的数学方程，以验证交易组（称为块）<b>比特币</b>'s(CRYPTO:BTC)网络。为此，他们将获得 6.25 比特币的奖励。那价值接近35万美元。随着比特币股价上涨，Riot 和 Marathon Digital 的股价也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The problem with these stocks is they're completely tethered to the performance of Bitcoin. Over the last decade, the world's largest digital token plunged by 80% on three separate occasions. If that were to happen again, it's not even clear if the crypto mining operating model would survive.Devoid of innovation, Riot and Marathon are essentially crossing their proverbial fingers and hoping Bitcoin goes up.</p><p><blockquote>这些股票的问题在于它们完全与比特币的表现挂钩。在过去十年中，世界上最大的数字代币在三个不同的场合暴跌了80%。如果这种情况再次发生，甚至不清楚加密货币挖矿运营模式是否会生存下去。缺乏创新，Riot 和 Marathon 本质上是在祈祷，希望比特币能够崛起。</blockquote></p><p><b>5. Quite a few are penny stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 相当一部分是细价股</b></blockquote></p><p>Retail investors in the WSB community have also been piling intopenny stocks, some of which are heavily sold short. Though penny stocks aren't inherently bad news, the vast majority of companies with share prices below $5 are \"cheap\" for a good reason.</p><p><blockquote>WSB 社区的散户投资者也一直在大量买入细价股，其中一些股票被大量卖空。尽管细价股本质上并不是坏消息，但绝大多数股价低于 5 美元的公司“便宜”是有充分理由的。</blockquote></p><p>Veterinary healthcare company<b>Zomedica</b>(NYSEMKT:ZOM)has been an especially popular penny stock with the Reddit crowd. Zomedica first received a boost in January after<i>Tiger King</i>star Carole Baskin mentioned the stock -- a mention Baskin was compensated for -- in a video posted to YouTube. Zomedica's shares gained further traction after the company announced plans to launch its Truforma point-of-care diagnostics system at the end of March.</p><p><blockquote>兽医保健公司<b>佐梅迪卡</b>(NYSEMKT:ZOM) 一直是 Reddit 人群中特别受欢迎的细价股。Zomedica 于 1 月份首次获得提振<i>虎王</i>明星卡罗尔·巴斯金 (Carole Baskin) 在 YouTube 上发布的一段视频中提到了这只股票——巴斯金因此获得了补偿。Zomedica 宣布计划于 3 月底推出 Truforma 护理点诊断系统后，该公司股价进一步上涨。</blockquote></p><p>But up to this point, Zomedica has been a developmental-stage company with no revenue. Even after Truforma officially hits the market, Wall Street is only counting on a little north of $20 million in sales by 2023. That'speanuts compared to Zomedica's $2.4 billion valuation.</p><p><blockquote>但到目前为止，Zomedica 一直是一家没有收入的开发阶段公司。即使在 Truforma 正式上市后，华尔街预计到 2023 年销售额也只有略高于 2000 万美元。与 Zomedica 24 亿美元的估值相比，这简直微不足道。</blockquote></p><p><b>6. Some may not survive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.有些可能无法存活</b></blockquote></p><p>There's also the very real possibility that some of the Reddit stocks being pumped by retail investors may not even survive.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者炒作的一些 Reddit 股票也有可能无法存活。</blockquote></p><p>Movie-theater chain<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC), arguably the most-popular WSB stock next to GameStop, came perilously close to filing for bankruptcy earlier this year. All that saved AMC was the issuance of nearly 165 million shares of AMC stock and more than $400 million in debt capital.</p><p><blockquote>电影院连锁店<b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）可以说是仅次于游戏驿站的最受欢迎的 WSB 股票，今年早些时候险些申请破产。AMC 所节省的只是发行了近 1.65 亿股 AMC 股票和超过 4 亿美元的债务资本。</blockquote></p><p>But even with this capital,it's not certain that AMC will be around in a few years. Coronavirus variants threaten to upend a return to societal norms, and select streaming services are encroaching on theaters' once-sacred space.<b>AT&amp;T</b>&nbsp;subsidiary WarnerMedia is releasing all of its movies on HBO Max this year the same day they'll hit theaters. With movie exclusivity now being called into question, AMC's best days look to be long gone.</p><p><blockquote>但即使有了这笔资金，也不确定几年后 AMC 是否会存在。冠状病毒变种有可能颠覆社会规范的回归，精选的流媒体服务正在侵占影院曾经神圣的空间。<b>AT&amp;T</b>子公司华纳媒体今年将在HBO Max上映的同一天发布其所有电影。随着电影排他性现在受到质疑，AMC最好的日子看起来早已一去不复返了。</blockquote></p><p><b>7. Margin use is a concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7. 保证金使用令人关切</b></blockquote></p><p>A seventh and final reason to avoid the Reddit stocks like the plague is thehigh amount of leverage being used by retail investors.</p><p><blockquote>像瘟疫一样避开 Reddit 股票的第七个也是最后一个原因是散户投资者使用了大量的杠杆。</blockquote></p><p>According to a Harris Poll of retail investors conducted back in September 2020, 23% had purchased options, 10% were using margin to buy equities, and another 10% were both buying equities on margin and purchasing options. In other words, 43% of all retail investors were speculating with market timing and/or using leverage in an attempt to pump up their gains.</p><p><blockquote>根据哈里斯 2020 年 9 月对散户投资者进行的民意调查，23% 的人购买了期权，10% 的人使用保证金购买股票，另外 10% 的人同时购买保证金股票和购买期权。换句话说，43%的散户投资者都在利用市场时机进行投机和/或利用杠杆来提高收益。</blockquote></p><p>The problem is that market timing doesn't work with any degree of accuracy over the long run, and stock prices can (and do) move in both directions. If equities get moving in the wrong direction with retail investors highly levered, it's possible we could see a number of Reddit stocks get absolutely throttled due to margin calls.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于，从长远来看，市场时机并不能以任何程度的准确性发挥作用，股票价格可以（而且确实）双向波动。如果散户投资者评级，股市走向错误的方向，我们可能会看到一些 Reddit 股票因利润率评级而受到绝对限制。</blockquote></p><p>There's simply no reason for fundamentally focused, long-term investors to chase any of the Reddit stocks.</p><p><blockquote>关注基本面的长期投资者根本没有理由追逐任何 Reddit 股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/18/7-reasons-to-avoid-reddit-stocks-like-the-plague/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/18/7-reasons-to-avoid-reddit-stocks-like-the-plague/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126528554","content_text":"GameStop, AMC, Sundial, and many more Reddit stocks are bad news for investors.No matter how long you've been investing, there's always something new to see. Last year, investors witnessed the fastest bear market decline of at least 30% in theS&P 500's history, as well as West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures plunging deeply (but briefly) into negative territory. This year, it's beenall about the Reddit frenzy.Without getting too far into the weeds, retail investors -- many of whom are young or novice investors -- on Reddit's WallStreetBets (WSB) community chatroom have effectively banded together to purchase shares and out-of-the-money call options on stocks with high levels of short interest. The goal of these WSB traders is to effect a short squeeze, which only fuels the upside in a momentum stock. Since most big short-sellers are institutional investors or hedge funds, the Reddit frenzy is being viewed as a battle between retail investors and the \"big money.\"While a number of Reddit stocks have skyrocketed, the vast majority are extremely dangerous investments. Here are seven sound reasons to avoid the Reddit stocks like the plague.1. They've detached from their underlying fundamentalsArguably the biggest problem with the Reddit-stock rally is that there's no way to justify the underlying fundamentals for these companies.Take video game and accessories retailerGameStop(NYSE:GME)as the perfect example. Though its e-commerce sales during the 2020 holiday season catapulted 309%,total sales still declined by 3%as a result of the company shuttering 11% of its stores. After waiting far too long to focus on digital gaming, GameStop's game plan is pretty much to close physical locations in an effort to cut costs and backpedal its way into profitability.Then there's headphone, headset, and Bluetooth speaker-manufacturerKoss(NASDAQ:KOSS). After consistently trading at 0.5 to 1.1 times sales over the last decade, Koss is now valued at an estimated 11 to 12 times sales. Mind you, this is a company operating in a highly commoditized and generally low-margin industry that's lost money in three of the past four years. There'sno way to justify its valuation.2. They're often serial dilutersWhen questionable stocks take off, you can usually count on the management teams behind these companies to use this gift as an opportunity to raise capital. In layman's terms, this means shareholders are forced to deal with dilution.Canadianmarijuana stockSundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)has raised more than $600 million in cash in a very short time frame. However, the numerous registered direct offerings, at-the-market offerings, and debt-to-equity swaps it undertookincreased its outstanding share countby approximately 1.15 billion shares in five months. Sundial's board also recently OK'd another mixed-shelf offering that would allow it to sell up to $1 billion in securities over time.Even if Sundial were to somehow become profitable and effectively put its cash to work, it'll be almost impossible for the company to generate a meaningful per-share profit with 1.66 billion shares outstanding. Without a reverse split, Sundial could regularly flirt with delisting.3. They usually lose moneyA common theme among the Reddit stocks is that most aren't anywhere close to profitability. For instance, intimate apparel and swimwear retailerNaked Brand Group(NASDAQ:NAKD)has been popular both for its high level of short interest and its penny stock share price.However, one thing you're not going to find with this company is profits.Sales have been on the decline since 2018, and the company hasn't produced a full-year profit in at least a half-decade. While it's possible Naked Brands' shift to an e-commerce-focused model could help lower its overhead enough to make it profitable, it's far from a guarantee. The retail space is highly competitive, and even successful retailers sport only modest operating margins, at best.It's worth pointing out that GameStop and Sundial are losing quite a bit of money, too -- as are most of the other Reddit stocks I'll be mentioning below.4. Some lack innovationAnother issue with some of the Reddit stocks is that they lack true innovation. This can be seen in cryptocurrency minersRiot Blockchain(NASDAQ:RIOT)andMarathon Digital Holdings(NASDAQ:MARA), which have both been popular stocks within the WSB community.Thesecryptocurrency miningcompanies use high-powered computers to solve complex mathematical equations to validate groups of transactions (known as a block) onBitcoin's(CRYPTO:BTC)network. For doing so, they're given a block reward of 6.25 Bitcoin. That's worth close to $350,000. As the price of Bitcoin has risen, so have the share prices of Riot and Marathon Digital.The problem with these stocks is they're completely tethered to the performance of Bitcoin. Over the last decade, the world's largest digital token plunged by 80% on three separate occasions. If that were to happen again, it's not even clear if the crypto mining operating model would survive.Devoid of innovation, Riot and Marathon are essentially crossing their proverbial fingers and hoping Bitcoin goes up.5. Quite a few are penny stocksRetail investors in the WSB community have also been piling intopenny stocks, some of which are heavily sold short. Though penny stocks aren't inherently bad news, the vast majority of companies with share prices below $5 are \"cheap\" for a good reason.Veterinary healthcare companyZomedica(NYSEMKT:ZOM)has been an especially popular penny stock with the Reddit crowd. Zomedica first received a boost in January afterTiger Kingstar Carole Baskin mentioned the stock -- a mention Baskin was compensated for -- in a video posted to YouTube. Zomedica's shares gained further traction after the company announced plans to launch its Truforma point-of-care diagnostics system at the end of March.But up to this point, Zomedica has been a developmental-stage company with no revenue. Even after Truforma officially hits the market, Wall Street is only counting on a little north of $20 million in sales by 2023. That'speanuts compared to Zomedica's $2.4 billion valuation.6. Some may not surviveThere's also the very real possibility that some of the Reddit stocks being pumped by retail investors may not even survive.Movie-theater chainAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC), arguably the most-popular WSB stock next to GameStop, came perilously close to filing for bankruptcy earlier this year. All that saved AMC was the issuance of nearly 165 million shares of AMC stock and more than $400 million in debt capital.But even with this capital,it's not certain that AMC will be around in a few years. Coronavirus variants threaten to upend a return to societal norms, and select streaming services are encroaching on theaters' once-sacred space.AT&T subsidiary WarnerMedia is releasing all of its movies on HBO Max this year the same day they'll hit theaters. With movie exclusivity now being called into question, AMC's best days look to be long gone.7. Margin use is a concernA seventh and final reason to avoid the Reddit stocks like the plague is thehigh amount of leverage being used by retail investors.According to a Harris Poll of retail investors conducted back in September 2020, 23% had purchased options, 10% were using margin to buy equities, and another 10% were both buying equities on margin and purchasing options. In other words, 43% of all retail investors were speculating with market timing and/or using leverage in an attempt to pump up their gains.The problem is that market timing doesn't work with any degree of accuracy over the long run, and stock prices can (and do) move in both directions. If equities get moving in the wrong direction with retail investors highly levered, it's possible we could see a number of Reddit stocks get absolutely throttled due to margin calls.There's simply no reason for fundamentally focused, long-term investors to chase any of the Reddit stocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327170170,"gmtCreate":1616074148390,"gmtModify":1631892153612,"author":{"id":"3579088932518063","authorId":"3579088932518063","name":"Strider88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579088932518063","idStr":"3579088932518063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327170170","repostId":"1162260876","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162260876","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616070584,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1162260876?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 20:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Tech Stocks That Could Make You Rich<blockquote>2只可以让你致富的科技股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162260876","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These tech companies are disrupting the status quo -- that could mean big gains for investors.\n\nAs t","content":"<p>  <b>These tech companies are disrupting the status quo -- that could mean big gains for investors.</b>  As time passes and technology changes, some well-established enterprises will fade from relevance as lesser-known start-ups rise in their place. The tricky part is finding those potentially life-changing investments early on.</p><p><blockquote><b>这些科技公司正在打破现状——这可能意味着投资者的巨额利润。</b>随着时间的推移和技术的变化，一些成熟的企业将随着不太知名的初创企业的崛起而消失。棘手的部分是尽早找到那些可能改变生活的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Fortunately, companies that achieve great success tend to havecertain traits in common. For instance, they are often first movers in emerging industries. That could mean developing a new product or tackling an old problem with a novel solution.</p><p><blockquote>幸运的是，取得巨大成功的公司往往具有某些共同特征。例如，他们通常是新兴产业的先行者。这可能意味着开发新产品或用新的解决方案解决旧问题。</blockquote></p><p> Enterprises like<b>Lemonade</b>(NYSE:LMND)and<b>Arista Networks</b>(NYSE:ANET)check that box. Here's why investing in these two tech companies could make you rich.</p><p><blockquote>企业喜欢<b>柠檬汽水</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：LMND）和<b>阿里斯塔网络</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ANET）选中该框。这就是为什么投资这两家科技公司可以让你致富。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Lemonade: AI-powered insurance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 柠檬水：人工智能驱动的保险</b></blockquote></p><p> Lemonade is atech companythat sells insurance. Though its initial focus was on renters and homeowners policies, it entered the pet insurance&nbsp;andterm life insurancemarkets in 2020, and it plans to expand its portfolio again in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>柠檬水是一家销售保险的科技公司。尽管其最初的重点是租房者和房主保单，但它于 2020 年进入宠物保险和定期人寿保险市场，并计划在 2021 年再次扩大其产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> Lemonade's digital approach to insurance differs dramatically from its rivals. While traditional insurers have agents who sell policies and handle claims, Lemonade automates these processes with AI-powered chatbots. In fact, the company uses artificial intelligence to improve virtually every aspect of its business: Marketing, underwriting, fraud detection, and the customer experience.</p><p><blockquote>Lemonade 的数字化保险方法与其竞争对手截然不同。传统保险公司有销售保单和处理索赔的代理人，而柠檬水则通过人工智能聊天机器人实现了这些流程的自动化。事实上，该公司使用人工智能来改善其业务的几乎每个方面：营销、承保、欺诈检测和客户体验。</blockquote></p><p> So far, the results are encouraging. Lemonade's loss ratio dropped to 71%&nbsp;in 2020, meaning the company paid out $0.71 in claims for every $1 in earned premiums. That's a big improvement from its 161% loss ratio in 2017. More importantly, it puts Lemonade roughly in line with the top 20 property and casualty (P&amp;C) insurance companies, which have an average loss ratio of roughly 72%&nbsp;in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，结果令人鼓舞。Lemonade 的损失率在 2020 年降至 71%，这意味着该公司每赚取 1 美元的保费就支付 0.71 美元的索赔。这比2017年161%的亏损率有了很大改善。更重要的是，它使 Lemonade 与排名前 20 的财产和意外伤害 (P&amp;C) 保险公司大致保持一致，这些公司近年来的平均损失率约为 72%。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Lemonade's sales and marketing expenses actually decreased 9%&nbsp;in 2020, but its customer base grew 56%&nbsp;and its premium per customer grew 20%&nbsp;during the same time period. In other words, Lemonade's AI-powered marketing is becoming more efficient.</p><p><blockquote>同样，Lemonade 的销售和营销费用在 2020 年实际上下降了 9%，但同期其客户群增长了 56%，每位客户的保费增长了 20%。换句话说，柠檬水的人工智能驱动营销正在变得更加高效。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the addition of new customers (and the rising premium per customer) have powered impressive growth in gross profit.</p><p><blockquote>此外，新客户的增加（以及每位客户保费的上升）推动了毛利润的可观增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fe9c0bb388bfcabfac1abcc4df7859f\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"130\">But Lemonade has one more trick up its sleeve. The company also purchases reinsurance (insurance for insurance companies) to make its business less volatile. While this strategy cuts into Lemonade's top line, it also stabilizes its gross margin -- in fact, management estimates that Lemonade's gross margin will vary by no more than 3%&nbsp;in 95 out of every 100 years. That type of consistency is impressive in an industry that can literally depend on the weather.</p><p><blockquote>但是柠檬水还有一个诀窍。该公司还购买再保险（保险公司的保险），以降低其业务波动性。虽然这一策略削减了 Lemonade 的营收，但也稳定了其毛利率——事实上，管理层估计 Lemonade 的毛利率在每 100 年中有 95 年的变化不会超过 3%。在一个完全依赖天气的行业中，这种一致性令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that Lemonade is much smaller than market-leading rivals like<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>'s group of insurance brands and<b>Allstate</b>. But the insurance industry is enormous, generating over $5 trillion&nbsp;in annual premiums worldwide. That means Lemonade has a massive opportunity, and capturing even a few percentage points of that market would translate into tens of billions of dollars on the top line. Moreover, the company's AI-powered business should give it a long-term advantage over its rivals.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，Lemonade 比市场领先的竞争对手小得多，例如<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</b>保险品牌集团及<b>好事达</b>但保险业规模庞大，每年在全球产生超过5万亿美元的保费。这意味着柠檬水有一个巨大的机会，即使占领该市场的几个百分点，也会转化为数百亿美元的营收。此外，该公司的人工智能业务应该会使其相对于竞争对手具有长期优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Arista Networks: Software-driven networking</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. Arista Networks：软件驱动网络</b></blockquote></p><p> Arista provides networking solutions (switches and software) for data centers and enterprise campus environments. Since its inception, the company's software-driven approach to networking&nbsp;has differentiated it from<b>Cisco</b>and<b>Juniper Networks</b>. For example, rather than selling discrete routers like&nbsp;its&nbsp;rivals, Arista's software allows its R-Series switches to double as advanced routing platforms. This reduces cost&nbsp;and complexity for Arista's clients.</p><p><blockquote>Arista为数据中心和企业园区环境提供网络解决方案（交换机和软件）。自成立以来，该公司以软件为驱动的网络方法使其与<b>思科</b>和<b>瞻博网络</b>例如，Arista 的软件允许其 R 系列交换机兼作高级路由平台，而不是像竞争对手那样销售分立路由器。这降低了Arista客户的成本和复杂性。</blockquote></p><p> As part of its enterprise portfolio, Arista launched its 750 series campus switch last November. This new product line offers 400 Gbps (gigabits per second) of total bandwidth -- five&nbsp;times more than the closest competitor -- and helps clients create fast, secure WiFi networks. Like all Arista hardware, these new switches are powered by merchant silicon&nbsp;rather than costly proprietary chips used by rivals.</p><p><blockquote>作为其企业产品组合的一部分，Arista去年11月推出了750系列校园交换机。这一新产品线提供400 Gbps（每秒千兆位）的总带宽，是最接近的竞争对手的五倍，并帮助客户创建快速、安全的WiFi网络。与所有 Arista 硬件一样，这些新交换机由商用硅供电，而不是竞争对手使用的昂贵专有芯片。</blockquote></p><p> Arista's decision to use merchant silicon has been a big advantage for two reasons. First, it allows the company to launch new products quickly while still incorporating the latest chip technology. Second, it makes Arista more efficient than its rivals, because the company doesn't spend money to develop chips in-house. Ultimately, Arista can pass those savings on to customers, meaning its products come at a better price-to-performance ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Arista 决定使用商用硅是一个很大的优势，原因有二。首先，它允许公司快速推出新产品，同时仍然融入最新的芯片技术。其次，它使 Arista 比竞争对手更高效，因为该公司不花钱在内部开发芯片。最终，Arista 可以将这些节省的费用转嫁给客户，这意味着其产品具有更好的性价比。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Over the last decade, these advantages have helped Arista take significant market share in the high-speed data center switching market (10 Gbps and above). Meanwhile, Cisco's market share has trended downward, though the company is still the leader.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，这些优势帮助Arista在高速数据中心交换市场（10 Gbps及以上）占据了巨大的市场份额。与此同时，思科的市场份额呈下降趋势，尽管该公司仍然是领导者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8a65fe6051b194a534671172a1615d\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"171\">In the coming years, the proliferation of connected devices (thinkInternet of Things) and computer-intensive applications (thinkartificial intelligence) will place more demand on data centers. That will create a need for more powerful networking solutions. As theleading providerof 100 Gbps and 400 Gbps switches, Arista is well-positioned to grow its top line quickly and continue taking market share.</p><p><blockquote>未来几年，互联设备（thinkInternet of Things）和计算机密集型应用（thinkartificial intelligence）的激增将对数据中心提出更多需求。这将产生对更强大网络解决方案的需求。作为 100 Gbps 和 400 Gbps 交换机的领先供应商，Arista 处于有利地位，可以快速增长其营收并继续占据市场份额。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Tech Stocks That Could Make You Rich<blockquote>2只可以让你致富的科技股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Tech Stocks That Could Make You Rich<blockquote>2只可以让你致富的科技股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 20:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>These tech companies are disrupting the status quo -- that could mean big gains for investors.</b>  As time passes and technology changes, some well-established enterprises will fade from relevance as lesser-known start-ups rise in their place. The tricky part is finding those potentially life-changing investments early on.</p><p><blockquote><b>这些科技公司正在打破现状——这可能意味着投资者的巨额利润。</b>随着时间的推移和技术的变化，一些成熟的企业将随着不太知名的初创企业的崛起而消失。棘手的部分是尽早找到那些可能改变生活的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Fortunately, companies that achieve great success tend to havecertain traits in common. For instance, they are often first movers in emerging industries. That could mean developing a new product or tackling an old problem with a novel solution.</p><p><blockquote>幸运的是，取得巨大成功的公司往往具有某些共同特征。例如，他们通常是新兴产业的先行者。这可能意味着开发新产品或用新的解决方案解决旧问题。</blockquote></p><p> Enterprises like<b>Lemonade</b>(NYSE:LMND)and<b>Arista Networks</b>(NYSE:ANET)check that box. Here's why investing in these two tech companies could make you rich.</p><p><blockquote>企业喜欢<b>柠檬汽水</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：LMND）和<b>阿里斯塔网络</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ANET）选中该框。这就是为什么投资这两家科技公司可以让你致富。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Lemonade: AI-powered insurance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 柠檬水：人工智能驱动的保险</b></blockquote></p><p> Lemonade is atech companythat sells insurance. Though its initial focus was on renters and homeowners policies, it entered the pet insurance&nbsp;andterm life insurancemarkets in 2020, and it plans to expand its portfolio again in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>柠檬水是一家销售保险的科技公司。尽管其最初的重点是租房者和房主保单，但它于 2020 年进入宠物保险和定期人寿保险市场，并计划在 2021 年再次扩大其产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> Lemonade's digital approach to insurance differs dramatically from its rivals. While traditional insurers have agents who sell policies and handle claims, Lemonade automates these processes with AI-powered chatbots. In fact, the company uses artificial intelligence to improve virtually every aspect of its business: Marketing, underwriting, fraud detection, and the customer experience.</p><p><blockquote>Lemonade 的数字化保险方法与其竞争对手截然不同。传统保险公司有销售保单和处理索赔的代理人，而柠檬水则通过人工智能聊天机器人实现了这些流程的自动化。事实上，该公司使用人工智能来改善其业务的几乎每个方面：营销、承保、欺诈检测和客户体验。</blockquote></p><p> So far, the results are encouraging. Lemonade's loss ratio dropped to 71%&nbsp;in 2020, meaning the company paid out $0.71 in claims for every $1 in earned premiums. That's a big improvement from its 161% loss ratio in 2017. More importantly, it puts Lemonade roughly in line with the top 20 property and casualty (P&amp;C) insurance companies, which have an average loss ratio of roughly 72%&nbsp;in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，结果令人鼓舞。Lemonade 的损失率在 2020 年降至 71%，这意味着该公司每赚取 1 美元的保费就支付 0.71 美元的索赔。这比2017年161%的亏损率有了很大改善。更重要的是，它使 Lemonade 与排名前 20 的财产和意外伤害 (P&amp;C) 保险公司大致保持一致，这些公司近年来的平均损失率约为 72%。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Lemonade's sales and marketing expenses actually decreased 9%&nbsp;in 2020, but its customer base grew 56%&nbsp;and its premium per customer grew 20%&nbsp;during the same time period. In other words, Lemonade's AI-powered marketing is becoming more efficient.</p><p><blockquote>同样，Lemonade 的销售和营销费用在 2020 年实际上下降了 9%，但同期其客户群增长了 56%，每位客户的保费增长了 20%。换句话说，柠檬水的人工智能驱动营销正在变得更加高效。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the addition of new customers (and the rising premium per customer) have powered impressive growth in gross profit.</p><p><blockquote>此外，新客户的增加（以及每位客户保费的上升）推动了毛利润的可观增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fe9c0bb388bfcabfac1abcc4df7859f\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"130\">But Lemonade has one more trick up its sleeve. The company also purchases reinsurance (insurance for insurance companies) to make its business less volatile. While this strategy cuts into Lemonade's top line, it also stabilizes its gross margin -- in fact, management estimates that Lemonade's gross margin will vary by no more than 3%&nbsp;in 95 out of every 100 years. That type of consistency is impressive in an industry that can literally depend on the weather.</p><p><blockquote>但是柠檬水还有一个诀窍。该公司还购买再保险（保险公司的保险），以降低其业务波动性。虽然这一策略削减了 Lemonade 的营收，但也稳定了其毛利率——事实上，管理层估计 Lemonade 的毛利率在每 100 年中有 95 年的变化不会超过 3%。在一个完全依赖天气的行业中，这种一致性令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that Lemonade is much smaller than market-leading rivals like<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>'s group of insurance brands and<b>Allstate</b>. But the insurance industry is enormous, generating over $5 trillion&nbsp;in annual premiums worldwide. That means Lemonade has a massive opportunity, and capturing even a few percentage points of that market would translate into tens of billions of dollars on the top line. Moreover, the company's AI-powered business should give it a long-term advantage over its rivals.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，Lemonade 比市场领先的竞争对手小得多，例如<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</b>保险品牌集团及<b>好事达</b>但保险业规模庞大，每年在全球产生超过5万亿美元的保费。这意味着柠檬水有一个巨大的机会，即使占领该市场的几个百分点，也会转化为数百亿美元的营收。此外，该公司的人工智能业务应该会使其相对于竞争对手具有长期优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Arista Networks: Software-driven networking</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. Arista Networks：软件驱动网络</b></blockquote></p><p> Arista provides networking solutions (switches and software) for data centers and enterprise campus environments. Since its inception, the company's software-driven approach to networking&nbsp;has differentiated it from<b>Cisco</b>and<b>Juniper Networks</b>. For example, rather than selling discrete routers like&nbsp;its&nbsp;rivals, Arista's software allows its R-Series switches to double as advanced routing platforms. This reduces cost&nbsp;and complexity for Arista's clients.</p><p><blockquote>Arista为数据中心和企业园区环境提供网络解决方案（交换机和软件）。自成立以来，该公司以软件为驱动的网络方法使其与<b>思科</b>和<b>瞻博网络</b>例如，Arista 的软件允许其 R 系列交换机兼作高级路由平台，而不是像竞争对手那样销售分立路由器。这降低了Arista客户的成本和复杂性。</blockquote></p><p> As part of its enterprise portfolio, Arista launched its 750 series campus switch last November. This new product line offers 400 Gbps (gigabits per second) of total bandwidth -- five&nbsp;times more than the closest competitor -- and helps clients create fast, secure WiFi networks. Like all Arista hardware, these new switches are powered by merchant silicon&nbsp;rather than costly proprietary chips used by rivals.</p><p><blockquote>作为其企业产品组合的一部分，Arista去年11月推出了750系列校园交换机。这一新产品线提供400 Gbps（每秒千兆位）的总带宽，是最接近的竞争对手的五倍，并帮助客户创建快速、安全的WiFi网络。与所有 Arista 硬件一样，这些新交换机由商用硅供电，而不是竞争对手使用的昂贵专有芯片。</blockquote></p><p> Arista's decision to use merchant silicon has been a big advantage for two reasons. First, it allows the company to launch new products quickly while still incorporating the latest chip technology. Second, it makes Arista more efficient than its rivals, because the company doesn't spend money to develop chips in-house. Ultimately, Arista can pass those savings on to customers, meaning its products come at a better price-to-performance ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Arista 决定使用商用硅是一个很大的优势，原因有二。首先，它允许公司快速推出新产品，同时仍然融入最新的芯片技术。其次，它使 Arista 比竞争对手更高效，因为该公司不花钱在内部开发芯片。最终，Arista 可以将这些节省的费用转嫁给客户，这意味着其产品具有更好的性价比。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Over the last decade, these advantages have helped Arista take significant market share in the high-speed data center switching market (10 Gbps and above). Meanwhile, Cisco's market share has trended downward, though the company is still the leader.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，这些优势帮助Arista在高速数据中心交换市场（10 Gbps及以上）占据了巨大的市场份额。与此同时，思科的市场份额呈下降趋势，尽管该公司仍然是领导者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8a65fe6051b194a534671172a1615d\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"171\">In the coming years, the proliferation of connected devices (thinkInternet of Things) and computer-intensive applications (thinkartificial intelligence) will place more demand on data centers. That will create a need for more powerful networking solutions. As theleading providerof 100 Gbps and 400 Gbps switches, Arista is well-positioned to grow its top line quickly and continue taking market share.</p><p><blockquote>未来几年，互联设备（thinkInternet of Things）和计算机密集型应用（thinkartificial intelligence）的激增将对数据中心提出更多需求。这将产生对更强大网络解决方案的需求。作为 100 Gbps 和 400 Gbps 交换机的领先供应商，Arista 处于有利地位，可以快速增长其营收并继续占据市场份额。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/18/2-tech-stocks-that-could-make-you-rich/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ANET":"Arista Networks, Inc.","LMND":"Lemonade, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/18/2-tech-stocks-that-could-make-you-rich/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162260876","content_text":"These tech companies are disrupting the status quo -- that could mean big gains for investors.\n\nAs time passes and technology changes, some well-established enterprises will fade from relevance as lesser-known start-ups rise in their place. The tricky part is finding those potentially life-changing investments early on.\nFortunately, companies that achieve great success tend to havecertain traits in common. For instance, they are often first movers in emerging industries. That could mean developing a new product or tackling an old problem with a novel solution.\nEnterprises likeLemonade(NYSE:LMND)andArista Networks(NYSE:ANET)check that box. Here's why investing in these two tech companies could make you rich.\n1. Lemonade: AI-powered insurance\nLemonade is atech companythat sells insurance. Though its initial focus was on renters and homeowners policies, it entered the pet insurance andterm life insurancemarkets in 2020, and it plans to expand its portfolio again in 2021.\nLemonade's digital approach to insurance differs dramatically from its rivals. While traditional insurers have agents who sell policies and handle claims, Lemonade automates these processes with AI-powered chatbots. In fact, the company uses artificial intelligence to improve virtually every aspect of its business: Marketing, underwriting, fraud detection, and the customer experience.\nSo far, the results are encouraging. Lemonade's loss ratio dropped to 71% in 2020, meaning the company paid out $0.71 in claims for every $1 in earned premiums. That's a big improvement from its 161% loss ratio in 2017. More importantly, it puts Lemonade roughly in line with the top 20 property and casualty (P&C) insurance companies, which have an average loss ratio of roughly 72% in recent years.\nLikewise, Lemonade's sales and marketing expenses actually decreased 9% in 2020, but its customer base grew 56% and its premium per customer grew 20% during the same time period. In other words, Lemonade's AI-powered marketing is becoming more efficient.\nMoreover, the addition of new customers (and the rising premium per customer) have powered impressive growth in gross profit.\nBut Lemonade has one more trick up its sleeve. The company also purchases reinsurance (insurance for insurance companies) to make its business less volatile. While this strategy cuts into Lemonade's top line, it also stabilizes its gross margin -- in fact, management estimates that Lemonade's gross margin will vary by no more than 3% in 95 out of every 100 years. That type of consistency is impressive in an industry that can literally depend on the weather.\nInvestors should be aware that Lemonade is much smaller than market-leading rivals likeBerkshire Hathaway's group of insurance brands andAllstate. But the insurance industry is enormous, generating over $5 trillion in annual premiums worldwide. That means Lemonade has a massive opportunity, and capturing even a few percentage points of that market would translate into tens of billions of dollars on the top line. Moreover, the company's AI-powered business should give it a long-term advantage over its rivals.\n2. Arista Networks: Software-driven networking\nArista provides networking solutions (switches and software) for data centers and enterprise campus environments. Since its inception, the company's software-driven approach to networking has differentiated it fromCiscoandJuniper Networks. For example, rather than selling discrete routers like its rivals, Arista's software allows its R-Series switches to double as advanced routing platforms. This reduces cost and complexity for Arista's clients.\nAs part of its enterprise portfolio, Arista launched its 750 series campus switch last November. This new product line offers 400 Gbps (gigabits per second) of total bandwidth -- five times more than the closest competitor -- and helps clients create fast, secure WiFi networks. Like all Arista hardware, these new switches are powered by merchant silicon rather than costly proprietary chips used by rivals.\nArista's decision to use merchant silicon has been a big advantage for two reasons. First, it allows the company to launch new products quickly while still incorporating the latest chip technology. Second, it makes Arista more efficient than its rivals, because the company doesn't spend money to develop chips in-house. Ultimately, Arista can pass those savings on to customers, meaning its products come at a better price-to-performance ratio.\nOver the last decade, these advantages have helped Arista take significant market share in the high-speed data center switching market (10 Gbps and above). Meanwhile, Cisco's market share has trended downward, though the company is still the leader.\nIn the coming years, the proliferation of connected devices (thinkInternet of Things) and computer-intensive applications (thinkartificial intelligence) will place more demand on data centers. That will create a need for more powerful networking solutions. As theleading providerof 100 Gbps and 400 Gbps switches, Arista is well-positioned to grow its top line quickly and continue taking market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ANET":0.9,"LMND":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}