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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-10-26
  can't wait
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  4,582 评论
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-10-23
  bullish
  Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote>
  Summary Palantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size.
  Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote>
  3,977 评论
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-10-20
  soon
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,824 评论
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-10-19
  always a good time
  Is Tesla Stock A Buy Or Sell Before Upcoming Earnings?<blockquote>在即将发布的财报之前，特斯拉股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>
  Summary Earlier this month, Tesla released Q3 global delivery volumes of 241,300 vehicles, a record
  Is Tesla Stock A Buy Or Sell Before Upcoming Earnings?<blockquote>在即将发布的财报之前，特斯拉股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>
  2,422 评论
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-10-18
  $Apple(AAPL)$ bullish
  2,947 评论
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-10-14
  good
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,692 评论
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-10-12
  about time
  Chevron Adopts Operational Net Zero ‘Aspiration’ by 2050<blockquote>雪佛龙到 2050 年实现运营净零“愿景”</blockquote>
  (Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp. committed to an “aspiration” of net zero emissions from its operations
  Chevron Adopts Operational Net Zero ‘Aspiration’ by 2050<blockquote>雪佛龙到 2050 年实现运营净零“愿景”</blockquote>
  2,811 评论
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-10-02
  nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,956 评论
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-09-12
  fud
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,932 评论
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-09-12
  nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,440 评论
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wait&nbsp;","listText":"can't wait&nbsp;","text":"can't wait","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856452697","repostId":"1182426097","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858963458,"gmtCreate":1634964282377,"gmtModify":1634964286959,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578559022708914","idStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"bullish","listText":"bullish","text":"bullish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858963458","repostId":"1177255738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177255738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634953820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177255738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-23 09:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177255738","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.</li>  <li>PLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.</li>  <li>The company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0d32030c1112ab6f00943f9091b85b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的美国陆军合同对该公司来说是一个巨大的新闻，因为合同规模很大。大局也很重要——PLTR极具竞争力且值得信赖。</li><li>PLTR是仅有的四家获得国防部认证的IL-5公司之一，并且正在转向IL-6，这应该会进一步增加其护城河。</li><li>该公司的利润似乎很昂贵，但当我们考虑PLTR的增长前景时，股票可能是一项相当不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies(PLTR)仍然是一家非常令人兴奋、快速增长的科技公司，其估值仍然很高。最近与美国陆军签订的合同再次表明，其专有解决方案是独一无二的，并且Palantir Technologies在政府机构中根深蒂固，这应该使该公司能够实现多年的强劲增长。Palantir Technologies并不是一个低风险的选择，但我确实相信，从长远来看，投资者可以从这只股票中看到可观的收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir &amp; US Army Contract</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir与美国陆军合同</b></blockquote></p><p> In early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth&nbsp;$823 million&nbsp;that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the&nbsp;<i>Capability Drop 2</i>&nbsp;(CD-2) program.</p><p><blockquote>10月初，Palantir Technologies宣布被美国陆军选中签订一份价值8.23亿美元的合同，该公司将为<i>能力下降2</i>（CD-2）程序。</blockquote></p><p> For a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst&nbsp;noted&nbsp;that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.</p><p><blockquote>对于像Palantir这样目前年收入约为15亿美元的公司来说，一份8亿多美元的合同当然是巨大的，但应该指出的是，这份合同不会让Palantir在短时间内获得所有这些收入。最重要的是，不一定所有收入都会流向Palantir Technologies，因为其他供应商（例如硬件供应商）也可能会从合同中获得一些份额。一位更为悲观的分析师指出，政府已要求在2022财年为该合同提供约1亿美元，这表明Palantir需要几年时间才能从该合同中获得所有收入。</blockquote></p><p> Still, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我认为这份合同是一个重大的积极因素，原因有几个。首先，美国陆军将合同授予Palantir Technologies的决定表明，Palantir仍然是国防领域技术基础的先驱，尽管一些分析师和评论者认为Palantir的产品/服务非常商品化。如果是这样的话，该合同可能会交给另一家以较低价格销售其服务和产品的公司——请记住，Palantir要求全公司毛利率超过70%。顾客不会愿意为任何人都可以提供的商品化产品支付那么多钱。</blockquote></p><p> The contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国陆军授予如此大的单个合同也表明，官员们认为Palantir有能力交付大规模合同，尽管从收入和雇主数量来看，Palantir Technologies目前并不是一家非常大的公司。官员们似乎相信Palantir能够很好地执行这些合同，这反过来表明Palantir未来应该有很大的机会获得其他类似规模的合同。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies是仅有的四家获得国防部SaaS 5级(IL-5)批准的公司之一，这一事实也表明了Palantir在国防领域相对于可能的竞争对手的强势地位：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9381e77c84c44423e48d0947838946a3\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"841\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:</p><p><blockquote>仅此一点就为Palantir提供了相对于未获准提供如此关键服务的竞争对手的主要优势。一旦Palantir获得IL-6批准（届时该公司还可以处理国防部机密信息），Palantir相对于竞争对手的护城河应该会进一步扩大。Palantir管理层认为，这将在可预见的未来发生，Palantir很可能成为第一家获得IL-6整体批准的公司。未来几年，国防市场可能是Palantir Technologies的巨大市场机遇：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c9bdfc460b29e6a19e05ad9f2b1278\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：nscai.gov（完整报告第67页）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&amp;D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家人工智能安全委员会预测，到2030年，人工智能研发投资将增长至接近800亿美元。Palantir Technologies将无法解决所有市场，因为这确实包括硬件、实施等。，但即使是几个百分点的市场份额也会变成每年超过10亿美元的业务。考虑到国防只是Palantir Technologies能够解决的众多市场之一，这似乎非常令人鼓舞——特别是当我们考虑到Palantir今年在该公司活跃的所有市场的收入约为15亿美元时。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US&nbsp;Space Force.</p><p><blockquote>得益于与军事客户的其他合同，Palantir Technologies证明了美国陆军合同并非例外。相反，Palantir似乎与国防客户合作良好，这就是为什么该公司一次又一次地被选中签订新合同——甚至被美国太空军选中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR库存预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的管理层相信，该公司有一天将成为世界上最重要的软件公司，尽管我认为这远不能保证，但我确实相信Palantir在未来许多年都具有巨大的增长潜力。它的解决方案可能会在商业以及军事和安全领域产生巨大影响。得益于与客户的密切关系（如上所述）、良好的业绩记录和强大的人才——这就是股票薪酬如此之高的原因，因为人才价格昂贵——Palantir应该能够在整个2020年代实现巨大的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with&nbsp;analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为2024年的收入将达到40亿美元左右，这与分析师的预期非常一致。在作为上市公司的四个季度中，Palantir在这两条线上四次超出了分析师的预期，因此该公司正在建立一个非常明确的超出预期的业绩记录。当然，不能保证这种情况在未来也会发生，但我确实相信Palantir很有可能在2024年产生超过40亿美元的收入。我们仍然采用40亿美元的估计，并假设未来三年收入增长30%，2028年至2030年间增长25%。如果这种情况发生，那么Palantir到2030年的收入将达到170亿美元，预计九年内将增长约11倍。一家年销售额170亿美元、收入增长25%的公司的估值是多少？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c4b159657eb14f408b680d91dd91ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Major software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)、Salesforce.com(CRM)和Adobe(ADBE)等主要软件公司目前的增长率为15%-25%，目前的交易价格是今年销售额的11至19倍。考虑到在我们的场景中，Palantir的增长速度确实比这三家公司快一点，我相信15倍的销售倍数似乎一点也不离谱。根据170亿美元的估计销售额，九年后我们的市值将达到2550亿美元，大约是当今480亿美元市值的5.3倍。然而，这并不意味着PLTR的股价将上涨430%，因为我们还必须考虑该公司的股票数量，该数量一直在上升，并且可能会继续上升。很难预测九年后股票数量的确切情况，因为我们不知道未来股权薪酬的轨迹，而且PLTR未来可能会开始回购股票。如果我们假设股票数量每年增加1亿股（根据YCharts的数据，去年股票数量增加了8000万股），那么2030年股票数量将达到约29亿股。根据2550亿美元的预期市值，我们的股价约为90美元，大约是今天的3.5倍。换句话说，如果这种情况成真，投资者将获得250%左右的9年回报率，即每年约15%。例如，这并不像过去九年持有AMZN(AMZN)时获得的回报那么出色，但我相信15%左右的年回报率仍然非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> One can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario that<i>might</i>be on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.</p><p><blockquote>当然，人们可以认为这种情况是不现实的，增长率应该更高或更低，或者2030年的销售倍数应该不同。尽管如此，我相信这是一个可靠的基本情况<i>可能</i>考虑到Palantir Technologies在许多不同行业的巨大潜力，请保持保守。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股票：现在是买入或卖出的好时机吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.</p><p><blockquote>与我主要报道的股票和我主要投资的股票相比，Palantir是一只非常不同的股票。按照目前的价格，PLTR乍一看似乎相当昂贵，其预期市盈率约为150倍。然而，该公司提供了巨大的增长潜力、有吸引力的基本面，并且拥有巨大的护城河，一旦PLTR获得IL-6国防部批准，该护城河可能会进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不是一只低风险股票，因为该公司与其他高估值交易的高增长股票一样，容易受到利率变动的影响。最重要的是，盈利能力尚未得到持久的证实，我们也不知道股权激励费用的轨迹。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我相信Palantir是一家高增长公司，从长远来看可以带来两位数的总回报，并且由于巨大且快速增长的潜在市场和宽阔的护城河，我愿意投资这家公司——不像许多其他我认为没有吸引力的高估值成长型公司。当然，Palantir Technologies是否适合您的投资组合取决于您的个人目标和风险承受能力，但如果PLTR到本世纪末至少增长三倍，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是一种引发恐惧的收入来源吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a958be03c050d5cdb47e6524217c231\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The primary goal of the&nbsp;Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio&nbsp;is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.</p><p><blockquote>现金流王国收益投资组合的主要目标是产生7%-10%范围内的总体收益率。我们通过结合几种不同的收入流来形成有吸引力、稳定的投资组合支出来实现这一目标。投资组合的价格可能会波动，但收入流保持一致。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-23 09:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.</li>  <li>PLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.</li>  <li>The company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0d32030c1112ab6f00943f9091b85b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的美国陆军合同对该公司来说是一个巨大的新闻，因为合同规模很大。大局也很重要——PLTR极具竞争力且值得信赖。</li><li>PLTR是仅有的四家获得国防部认证的IL-5公司之一，并且正在转向IL-6，这应该会进一步增加其护城河。</li><li>该公司的利润似乎很昂贵，但当我们考虑PLTR的增长前景时，股票可能是一项相当不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies(PLTR)仍然是一家非常令人兴奋、快速增长的科技公司，其估值仍然很高。最近与美国陆军签订的合同再次表明，其专有解决方案是独一无二的，并且Palantir Technologies在政府机构中根深蒂固，这应该使该公司能够实现多年的强劲增长。Palantir Technologies并不是一个低风险的选择，但我确实相信，从长远来看，投资者可以从这只股票中看到可观的收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir &amp; US Army Contract</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir与美国陆军合同</b></blockquote></p><p> In early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth&nbsp;$823 million&nbsp;that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the&nbsp;<i>Capability Drop 2</i>&nbsp;(CD-2) program.</p><p><blockquote>10月初，Palantir Technologies宣布被美国陆军选中签订一份价值8.23亿美元的合同，该公司将为<i>能力下降2</i>（CD-2）程序。</blockquote></p><p> For a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst&nbsp;noted&nbsp;that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.</p><p><blockquote>对于像Palantir这样目前年收入约为15亿美元的公司来说，一份8亿多美元的合同当然是巨大的，但应该指出的是，这份合同不会让Palantir在短时间内获得所有这些收入。最重要的是，不一定所有收入都会流向Palantir Technologies，因为其他供应商（例如硬件供应商）也可能会从合同中获得一些份额。一位更为悲观的分析师指出，政府已要求在2022财年为该合同提供约1亿美元，这表明Palantir需要几年时间才能从该合同中获得所有收入。</blockquote></p><p> Still, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我认为这份合同是一个重大的积极因素，原因有几个。首先，美国陆军将合同授予Palantir Technologies的决定表明，Palantir仍然是国防领域技术基础的先驱，尽管一些分析师和评论者认为Palantir的产品/服务非常商品化。如果是这样的话，该合同可能会交给另一家以较低价格销售其服务和产品的公司——请记住，Palantir要求全公司毛利率超过70%。顾客不会愿意为任何人都可以提供的商品化产品支付那么多钱。</blockquote></p><p> The contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国陆军授予如此大的单个合同也表明，官员们认为Palantir有能力交付大规模合同，尽管从收入和雇主数量来看，Palantir Technologies目前并不是一家非常大的公司。官员们似乎相信Palantir能够很好地执行这些合同，这反过来表明Palantir未来应该有很大的机会获得其他类似规模的合同。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies是仅有的四家获得国防部SaaS 5级(IL-5)批准的公司之一，这一事实也表明了Palantir在国防领域相对于可能的竞争对手的强势地位：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9381e77c84c44423e48d0947838946a3\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"841\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:</p><p><blockquote>仅此一点就为Palantir提供了相对于未获准提供如此关键服务的竞争对手的主要优势。一旦Palantir获得IL-6批准（届时该公司还可以处理国防部机密信息），Palantir相对于竞争对手的护城河应该会进一步扩大。Palantir管理层认为，这将在可预见的未来发生，Palantir很可能成为第一家获得IL-6整体批准的公司。未来几年，国防市场可能是Palantir Technologies的巨大市场机遇：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c9bdfc460b29e6a19e05ad9f2b1278\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：nscai.gov（完整报告第67页）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&amp;D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家人工智能安全委员会预测，到2030年，人工智能研发投资将增长至接近800亿美元。Palantir Technologies将无法解决所有市场，因为这确实包括硬件、实施等。，但即使是几个百分点的市场份额也会变成每年超过10亿美元的业务。考虑到国防只是Palantir Technologies能够解决的众多市场之一，这似乎非常令人鼓舞——特别是当我们考虑到Palantir今年在该公司活跃的所有市场的收入约为15亿美元时。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US&nbsp;Space Force.</p><p><blockquote>得益于与军事客户的其他合同，Palantir Technologies证明了美国陆军合同并非例外。相反，Palantir似乎与国防客户合作良好，这就是为什么该公司一次又一次地被选中签订新合同——甚至被美国太空军选中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR库存预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的管理层相信，该公司有一天将成为世界上最重要的软件公司，尽管我认为这远不能保证，但我确实相信Palantir在未来许多年都具有巨大的增长潜力。它的解决方案可能会在商业以及军事和安全领域产生巨大影响。得益于与客户的密切关系（如上所述）、良好的业绩记录和强大的人才——这就是股票薪酬如此之高的原因，因为人才价格昂贵——Palantir应该能够在整个2020年代实现巨大的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with&nbsp;analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为2024年的收入将达到40亿美元左右，这与分析师的预期非常一致。在作为上市公司的四个季度中，Palantir在这两条线上四次超出了分析师的预期，因此该公司正在建立一个非常明确的超出预期的业绩记录。当然，不能保证这种情况在未来也会发生，但我确实相信Palantir很有可能在2024年产生超过40亿美元的收入。我们仍然采用40亿美元的估计，并假设未来三年收入增长30%，2028年至2030年间增长25%。如果这种情况发生，那么Palantir到2030年的收入将达到170亿美元，预计九年内将增长约11倍。一家年销售额170亿美元、收入增长25%的公司的估值是多少？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c4b159657eb14f408b680d91dd91ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Major software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)、Salesforce.com(CRM)和Adobe(ADBE)等主要软件公司目前的增长率为15%-25%，目前的交易价格是今年销售额的11至19倍。考虑到在我们的场景中，Palantir的增长速度确实比这三家公司快一点，我相信15倍的销售倍数似乎一点也不离谱。根据170亿美元的估计销售额，九年后我们的市值将达到2550亿美元，大约是当今480亿美元市值的5.3倍。然而，这并不意味着PLTR的股价将上涨430%，因为我们还必须考虑该公司的股票数量，该数量一直在上升，并且可能会继续上升。很难预测九年后股票数量的确切情况，因为我们不知道未来股权薪酬的轨迹，而且PLTR未来可能会开始回购股票。如果我们假设股票数量每年增加1亿股（根据YCharts的数据，去年股票数量增加了8000万股），那么2030年股票数量将达到约29亿股。根据2550亿美元的预期市值，我们的股价约为90美元，大约是今天的3.5倍。换句话说，如果这种情况成真，投资者将获得250%左右的9年回报率，即每年约15%。例如，这并不像过去九年持有AMZN(AMZN)时获得的回报那么出色，但我相信15%左右的年回报率仍然非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> One can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario that<i>might</i>be on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.</p><p><blockquote>当然，人们可以认为这种情况是不现实的，增长率应该更高或更低，或者2030年的销售倍数应该不同。尽管如此，我相信这是一个可靠的基本情况<i>可能</i>考虑到Palantir Technologies在许多不同行业的巨大潜力，请保持保守。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股票：现在是买入或卖出的好时机吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.</p><p><blockquote>与我主要报道的股票和我主要投资的股票相比，Palantir是一只非常不同的股票。按照目前的价格，PLTR乍一看似乎相当昂贵，其预期市盈率约为150倍。然而，该公司提供了巨大的增长潜力、有吸引力的基本面，并且拥有巨大的护城河，一旦PLTR获得IL-6国防部批准，该护城河可能会进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不是一只低风险股票，因为该公司与其他高估值交易的高增长股票一样，容易受到利率变动的影响。最重要的是，盈利能力尚未得到持久的证实，我们也不知道股权激励费用的轨迹。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我相信Palantir是一家高增长公司，从长远来看可以带来两位数的总回报，并且由于巨大且快速增长的潜在市场和宽阔的护城河，我愿意投资这家公司——不像许多其他我认为没有吸引力的高估值成长型公司。当然，Palantir Technologies是否适合您的投资组合取决于您的个人目标和风险承受能力，但如果PLTR到本世纪末至少增长三倍，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是一种引发恐惧的收入来源吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a958be03c050d5cdb47e6524217c231\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The primary goal of the&nbsp;Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio&nbsp;is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.</p><p><blockquote>现金流王国收益投资组合的主要目标是产生7%-10%范围内的总体收益率。我们通过结合几种不同的收入流来形成有吸引力、稳定的投资组合支出来实现这一目标。投资组合的价格可能会波动，但收入流保持一致。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177255738","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.\nPLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.\nThe company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.\n\nScott Olson/Getty Images News\nArticle Thesis\nPalantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.\nPalantir & US Army Contract\nIn early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth $823 million that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the Capability Drop 2 (CD-2) program.\nFor a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst noted that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.\nStill, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.\nThe contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.\nPalantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:\nSource: Palantir\nThis alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:\nSource: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)\nThe National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.\nPalantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US Space Force.\nPLTR Stock Forecast\nPalantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.\nManagement believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?\nData by YCharts\nMajor software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.\nOne can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario thatmightbe on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.\nPLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?\nPalantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.\nPalantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.\nNevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.\nIs This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?\n\nThe primary goal of the Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859695550,"gmtCreate":1634690917573,"gmtModify":1634690920928,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578559022708914","idStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"soon","listText":"soon","text":"soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859695550","repostId":"1112266293","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850573504,"gmtCreate":1634611779656,"gmtModify":1634611784454,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578559022708914","idStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"always a good time&nbsp;","listText":"always a good time&nbsp;","text":"always a good time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850573504","repostId":"1122978319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122978319","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634611485,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122978319?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 10:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Tesla Stock A Buy Or Sell Before Upcoming Earnings?<blockquote>在即将发布的财报之前，特斯拉股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122978319","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarlier this month, Tesla released Q3 global delivery volumes of 241,300 vehicles, a record","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Earlier this month, Tesla released Q3 global delivery volumes of 241,300 vehicles, a record for the electric vehicle titan.</li>  <li>The figures set stage for better-than-expected Q3 earnings results, which is slated for release in a couple of days.</li>  <li>Investors have responded positively to the news, catapulting the stock past the $800 mark over the past week.</li>  <li>The stock price will likely remain elevated ahead of Tesla's upcoming release of Q3 financial results. However, the sentiment-driven uptick is expected to dial back towards the high-$700 to $800 level shortly after to reflect Tesla's renewed intrinsic value on improved fundamentals.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ae7d88ff7a98961733633ea30e5503\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1101\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本月早些时候，特斯拉公布第三季度全球交付量为 241,300 辆，创下了电动汽车巨头的纪录。</li><li>这些数据为好于预期的第三季度盈利结果奠定了基础，该结果预计将在几天内发布。</li><li>投资者对这一消息做出了积极反应，该股在过去一周突破了 800 美元大关。</li><li>在特斯拉即将发布第三季度财务业绩之前，股价可能会保持高位。然而，情绪驱动的上涨预计将在不久后回落至 700 美元至 800 美元的高位，以反映特斯拉因基本面改善而更新的内在价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA)stockhas been on a steady uptrend since May, gaining almost 50% as rising global electric vehicle (“EV”) demand continues to underpin record-setting sales growth for the automaker. Tesla’s recent release of record-setting deliveries of 241,300 vehicles worldwide for the third quarter has gotten investors eyeing better-than-expected results at the upcoming earnings call. Paired with an overall improvement in market sentiment following&nbsp;recent reports&nbsp;of bottoming initial unemployment benefit claims and slowing producer price increases, which have assuaged fears of inflation eroding economic recovery, the stock has been further catapulted past the $800 mark with strong upward momentum over the past week.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）的股价自 5 月份以来一直处于稳步上升趋势，随着全球电动汽车 (“EV”) 需求的增长继续支撑该汽车制造商创纪录的销售增长，股价上涨了近 50%。特斯拉最近公布的第三季度全球交付量达到创纪录的 24.13 万辆，这让投资者开始关注即将举行的财报看涨期权好于预期的业绩。最近有报道称首次申请失业救济人数触底，生产者价格上涨放缓，市场情绪整体改善，缓解了对通胀侵蚀经济复苏的担忧，该股在过去一周以强劲的上涨势头进一步突破 800 美元大关。</blockquote></p><p> The stock will likely continue to benefit from an immediate boost considering improved investor sentiment stemming from expectations for upbeat results at the upcoming earnings call. But despite a strong quarter that points to a continued competitive advantage in managing ongoing operational pressures from supply chain constraints and accelerating global EV demand, the stock’s current price levels are already reflective of the company’s projected intrinsic value. While Tesla continues to improve from a fundamental point of view with continued outperforming sales across the board, new material catalysts would be required to sustain further expansion from a valuation standpoint. On this basis, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of Tesla’s upcoming earnings release, with a revised 12-month price target of $806.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到投资者对即将举行的财报看涨期权乐观结果的预期改善了投资者情绪，该股可能会继续受益于即将到来的提振。不过，尽管本季度表现强劲，表明在管理供应链限制和全球电动汽车需求加速带来的持续运营压力方面继续具有竞争优势，但该股目前的价格水平已经反映了公司的预计内在价值。虽然从基本面来看，特斯拉持续向好，销售持续全面跑赢大盘，但从估值角度来看，需要新材料催化剂来维持进一步扩张。在此基础上，在特斯拉即将发布的财报之前，我们维持对该股的持有评级，修订后的 12 个月目标价为 806 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Better-Than-Expected Q3 Delivery Volumes and What It Implies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度交付量好于预期及其意味着什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite a severely constrained supply of semiconductors and other supply chain chaos like congested ports, Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the third quarter. The quarter marks Tesla’s&nbsp;best one yet, while also surpassing the average consensus estimate and Tesla guide for global deliveries of 223,677 vehicles and 221,952 vehicles, respectively. The results were a testament to Tesla’s exceptional handling of the ongoing chip supply crisis and logistical constraints, which continue to be a major overhang on the automotive sector. Even Volkswagen, one of Tesla’s strongest competitors, has openly complimented on the EV maker’s ability in leveraging proprietary software it had developed to enable compatibility with different suppliers’ chips as an “impressive” mean in navigating swiftly through the crisis.</p><p><blockquote>尽管半导体供应严重受限，港口拥堵等其他供应链混乱，特斯拉第三季度在全球交付了241,300辆汽车。本季度是特斯拉迄今为止最好的一个季度，同时也超过了全球交付量的平均共识估计值和特斯拉指南，分别为 223,677 辆和 221,952 辆。这一结果证明了特斯拉对持续存在的芯片供应危机和物流限制的出色处理，而这些问题仍然是汽车行业的一大突出问题。就连特斯拉最强劲的竞争对手之一大众汽车也公开称赞这家电动汽车制造商能够利用其开发的专有软件与不同供应商的芯片兼容，这是迅速度过危机的 “令人印象深刻 ”手段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Improved China Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>改善中国销售</b></blockquote></p><p> Of the 241,300 vehicles delivered, more than 73,000 vehicles were attributable to local sales in China. Tesla delivered&nbsp;56,006 vehicles&nbsp;produced from its Shanghai manufacturing plant in the month of September alone, with only 3,853 of which were exported to Europe. The results are a turnaround from depressed second quarter and July sales in the largest and fastest-growing EV market in the world, following a slew of negative press ranging from the&nbsp;April protest&nbsp;at the Shanghai Auto Show to the&nbsp;June recall&nbsp;of almost every Tesla vehicle sold in China due to a flaw in the vehicles’ active cruise control feature. It is also a sign that Tesla has been and continues to be doing just fine, if not even better, in satisfying robust demand from the Chinese market, despite rising competition from domestic peers like&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO),Li Auto&nbsp;(NASDAQ:LI)&nbsp;and XPeng&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV).</p><p><blockquote>在交付的241,300辆汽车中，超过73,000辆来自中国本地销售。仅 9 月份，特斯拉上海制造厂生产的汽车就交付了 56,006 辆，其中只有 3,853 辆出口到欧洲。在这个全球最大、增长最快的电动汽车市场，第二季度和 7 月份销量低迷的情况出现了转机。在此之前，从 4 月份上海车展上的抗议活动到 6 月份几乎所有在华销售的特斯拉汽车都因车辆的主动巡航控制功能存在缺陷而被召回，一系列负面新闻纷至沓来。这也表明，尽管来自蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）、理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）等国内同行的竞争日益激烈，但特斯拉在满足中国市场的强劲需求方面一直并将继续做得很好，甚至更好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With China’s new car sales&nbsp;down 17% in September&nbsp;and 13% in the entire third quarter due to a prolonged lack of chips, Tesla’s record-setting deliveries in the region further corroborates its strength in keeping related impacts at bay and under control. Although Elon Musk has continued to blame the “global shortage of chips and ships” as the biggest roadblock to maintaining sales growth of more than 50%, Tesla has fared the best amongst its peers, which will likely continue to reel from supply bottlenecks through to the end of 2022. The China Machinery Industry Federation has recently estimated&nbsp;two million fewer vehicles&nbsp;produced in China this year. The same narrative applies on the global sale, with a recently revised estimate on the quantified impact of ongoing chip supply shortages for the global automotive sector jumping to&nbsp;$210 billion, equivalent to 7.7 million fewer vehicles produced compared to a previous forecast of 3.9 million vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>由于长期缺乏芯片，中国 9 月份新车销量下降了 17%，整个第三季度下降了 13%，特斯拉在该地区创纪录的交付量进一步证实了其在控制相关影响方面的实力。尽管埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）继续指责 “全球芯片和船舶短缺 ”是维持 50% 以上销售增长的最大障碍，但特斯拉在同行中表现最好，很可能会继续摆脱供应瓶颈，直到 2022 年底。中国机械工业联合会最近估计，今年中国汽车产量将减少200万辆。同样的说法也适用于全球销售，最近修订的对全球汽车行业持续芯片供应短缺的量化影响的估计跃升至 2100 亿美元，相当于比之前预测的 390 万辆减少了 770 万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> <b>High-Margin Model 3/Y Sales Leading the Way</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高利润 Model 3/Y 销量领先</b></blockquote></p><p> As a pioneer and leader of the industry, Tesla remains a closely watched gauge for global EV adoption rates. Model 3 and Model Y sales accounted for more than 96% of third quarter deliveries. As the lower priced, higher-margin models, the Model 3 and Model Y were made to better appeal to mass market demand. The China-made Model Y boasts a competitive price tag of under $53,000, but earns a profit margin of&nbsp;close to 30%&nbsp;for Tesla, while the industry average hovers at only 8% to 10%. And now, with Model 3 and Model Y sales leading the way, not only do Tesla’s fundamentals benefit from better margins, but the trend also underpins rapid global EV adoption and robust demand for new energy vehicles around the world. This further corroborates the promising growth trajectory of Tesla’s core vehicle sales unit from a fundamental standpoint.</p><p><blockquote>作为该行业的先驱和领导者，特斯拉仍然是全球电动汽车采用率备受关注的指标。Model 3 和 Model Y 销量占第三季度交付量的 96% 以上。作为价格较低、利润较高的车型，Model 3 和 Model Y 旨在更好地吸引大众市场需求。中国制造的Model Y拥有不到53,000美元的有竞争力的价格，但特斯拉的利润率接近30%，而行业平均水平仅为8%至10%。现在，随着 Model 3 和 Model Y 的销量领先，特斯拉的基本面不仅受益于更高的利润率，而且这一趋势也支撑了全球电动汽车的快速普及和全球对新能源汽车的强劲需求。这从基本面上进一步印证了特斯拉核心汽车销售部门的良好增长轨迹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revised Revenue Projections on an Improved Vehicle Sales Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>由于汽车销售前景改善，修订了收入预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our&nbsp;previous forecast&nbsp;for Tesla’s better-than-expected vehicle sales outlook for the rest of the year, considering milder impacts from global supply chain constraints and improved global EV demand, our base case projections estimate total automotive revenues of $44.5 billion by the end of the year. Meanwhile, we have maintained the long-term growth assumption for Tesla’s automotive sales at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 20.1% towards $170.4 billion in revenues by 2030, which is consistent with&nbsp;current market expectations&nbsp;on global EV demand going into the next decade. The growth assumption also takes into consideration Tesla’s expanded production capacity with the new Berlin and Texas manufacturing plants coming online later this year to satisfy the continued surge of demand for EVs. The Berlin plant, in particular, is expected to be gamechanger for the EV maker’s presence in Europe. Tesla’s Shanghai manufacturing facility currently supplies some of the highly demanded Model 3/Y vehicles sold in Europe. But as demand from both the Chinese and European markets continue to surge, the Berlin plant will play a critical role in alleviating any supply bottlenecks and/or logistics challenges pertaining to China exports considering expensive shipping costs and lengthened delivery times from increasingly&nbsp;congested ports. Tesla’s Gigafactory in Berlin is expected to come online as soon as next month, and aims to ramp production capacity up to anywhere between&nbsp;5,000 and 10,000 vehicles per week&nbsp;by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到全球供应链限制和全球电动汽车需求改善带来的温和影响，调整了我们之前对特斯拉今年剩余时间汽车销售前景好于预期的预测，我们的基本案例预测预计到今年年底汽车总收入将达到 445 亿美元。与此同时，我们维持了特斯拉汽车销量的长期增长假设，即到 2030 年，复合年增长率 (“CAGR”) 为 20.1%，到 2030 年，收入将达到 1,704 亿美元，这与当前市场对未来十年全球电动汽车需求的预期一致。增长假设还考虑到了特斯拉扩大的产能，新的柏林和德克萨斯制造工厂将于今年晚些时候投产，以满足电动汽车需求的持续增长。尤其是柏林工厂，预计将改变这家电动汽车制造商在欧洲的业务。特斯拉上海制造工厂目前供应一些在欧洲销售的需求量很大的 Model 3/Y 汽车。但随着中国和欧洲市场的需求持续增长，柏林工厂将在缓解与中国出口相关的任何供应瓶颈和/或物流挑战方面发挥关键作用，考虑到昂贵的运输成本和日益拥挤的港口交货时间延长。特斯拉位于柏林的超级工厂预计最快将于下月投产，目标是到明年年底将产能提高到每周 5000 至 10000 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eadc84e6814f5684c9241c1cc0cd380d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, service revenues are expected to grow accordingly as well, considering they are primarily generated from after-sales vehicle services. Our base case forecast projects $4.0 billion by the end of the year, with growth towards $15.0 billion by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，考虑到服务收入主要来自售后服务，预计服务收入也会相应增长。我们的基本案例预测预计到今年年底将达到 40 亿美元，到本十年末将增长至 150 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242db85aead4054611f1bbcbc00d6c04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Our previous forecast for energy generation and storage revenues remains unchanged, considering Tesla’s continued strategy in prioritizing vehicle productions over energy generation and storage productions in the event of constrained resources:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到特斯拉在资源有限的情况下将汽车生产置于能源发电和存储生产之上的持续战略，我们之前对能源发电和存储收入的预测保持不变：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “Well, by the same token, if we're prioritizing vehicle production, if there's a shortage of cell upward from some reason then we will throttle down Megapack and Powerwall production. So that it could be something's got to give, basically.”Elon Musk,Q2 Earnings Call  Energy generation and storage revenues are expected to total $3.1 billion by the end of the year, and further advance at a CAGR of 8.9% towards $4.7 billion by 2030. The growth assumption applied reflects continued pent-up demand for the Megapack, which has already sold out until next year, and the Powerwall, which continues to accumulate a backlog of orders.</p><p><blockquote>“同样，如果我们优先考虑汽车生产，如果由于某种原因导致电池短缺，那么我们就会降低 Megapack 和 Powerwall 的产量。这样，基本上就可以做出一些贡献了。”埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk），第二季度财报 看涨期权能源发电和存储收入预计到今年年底将达到 31 亿美元，到 2030 年将以 8.9% 的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到 47 亿美元。所应用的增长假设反映了对 Megapack 和 Powerwall 的持续被压抑的需求，Megapack 已经售罄到明年，Powerwall 的持续积压订单。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8bffd547eb5b70da9a3346e474cd264\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, by maintaining the projected cost structure unchanged from our previous coverage, our revised forecast on Tesla’s total earnings come to $4.0 billion by the end of the year, which represents close to a four-fold increase from 2020. The bottom line is expected to further advance towards $15.3 billion by the end of the decade as production and deliveries continue to ramp up across Tesla’s core vehicle sales business, and energy generation and storage systems sales unit.</p><p><blockquote>最后，通过保持我们之前报道的预计成本结构不变，我们对特斯拉今年年底总收入的修订预测将达到 40 亿美元，比 2020 年增长近四倍。随着特斯拉核心汽车销售业务以及能源发电和存储系统销售部门的生产和交付量持续增长，预计到本十年末，利润将进一步达到 153 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d5d9e6c27ac07963cba69d733c04ac2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i. 基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79112498dff0283b72ce0abbd583e41a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>TSLA Stock Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉股票估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e61463f7f99b1028ae14f666a0a40a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consistent with recent developments regarding Tesla’s improved fundamentals from softer supply chain impacts and recovering China sales, we have upped our 12-month price target for the stock to $805.20. Considering our price target approximates Tesla’s current share price levels, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of its upcoming earnings release.</p><p><blockquote>最近，由于供应链影响减弱和中国销售复苏，特斯拉基本面有所改善，因此我们将该股的 12 个月目标价上调至 805.20 美元。考虑到我们的目标价与特斯拉目前的股价水平相近，在即将发布的财报之前，我们仍维持对该股的持有评级。</blockquote></p><p> The price target is derived from a discounted cash flow analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the forecasted financial information analyzed in earlier sections. The key valuation assumptions applied in the analysis, which includes the exit multiple and WACC used to discount projected future earnings, remain unchanged from our previous coverage. An exit multiple of 73.2x is applied to reflect Tesla’s continued leadership within the industry, as well as its growth prospects compared to industry peers. A WACC of 10.1% is applied to discount Tesla’s projected free cash flows in the valuation analysis, which takes into consideration the company’s current risk profile given its continued reduction of leverage with growing cash flows generated from operations.</p><p><blockquote>价格目标乃根据十年离散期间的贴现现金流量分析，结合前面章节分析的预测财务资料得出。分析中应用的主要估值假设（包括用于贴现预计未来收益的退出倍数和 WACC）与我们之前的覆盖范围保持不变。73.2 倍的退出倍数反映了特斯拉在行业内的持续领导地位，以及与行业同行相比的增长前景。在估值分析中，10.1% 的 WACC 用于贴现特斯拉的预计自由现金流，该分析考虑了公司当前的风险状况，因为随着运营产生的现金流不断增长，杠杆率不断降低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31d7c6ee0f8aa921cdb246f73fd5197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>ii.敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94665f6f0d97a11544d25abc5a893de6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"185\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite a big quarter for the EV maker, nothing material has changed from a valuation perspective. Tesla is already one of the largest automakers by market cap, which inches close to the total size of the most reputable legacy automakers in the&nbsp;U.S. and Europe combined. Yet, Tesla’s ranking by vehicle sales volume sits at&nbsp;18th&nbsp;place, which indicates that any improvements to its fundamentals from existing operations, ranging from car sales and related add-on services, to energy generation and storage solutions including its Supercharging network, have already been priced into its current valuation. On this basis, new material catalysts would be required to catapult Tesla’s already sky-high valuation to newer heights. And one of these material changing catalysts would likely include the ultimate rollout of level 4 and level 5 full autonomous driving technology and robotaxis, which continues to be delayed and hampered with increasing regulatory scrutiny.</p><p><blockquote>尽管这家电动汽车制造商的季度业绩很大，但从估值角度来看，没有任何实质性变化。按市值计算，特斯拉已经是最大的汽车制造商之一，接近美国最负盛名的传统汽车制造商的总规模。和欧洲的总和。然而，特斯拉的汽车销量排名第 18 位，这表明其基本面的任何改善，从现有业务（从汽车销售和相关附加服务到包括超级充电网络在内的能源生产和存储解决方案），都已计入其当前估值。在此基础上，需要新的材料催化剂将特斯拉已经天价的估值推向新的高度。这些材料变化催化剂之一可能包括 4 级和 5 级全自动驾驶技术以及 robotaxis 的最终推出，但随着监管审查的增加，这将继续被推迟和阻碍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Musk had originally committed to the commercial deployment of Tesla robotaxis by the end of 2020. Yet, only an advanced “Autopilot” driver-assistance system and a beta version of its “full self-driving” (“FSD”) have been released so far, with the latter being limited to a selective group of users that have metspecific driving behaviour requirements. Meanwhile, others in the race to autonomous mobility, including Alphabet’s Waymo, GM’s Cruise, and Intel’s Mobileye, have already launched, or slated to launch within the next 12 months, pilot programs across the U.S., Europe and Israel. The delays have been further exacerbated by increasing regulatory scrutiny over the safety and effectiveness of Tesla’s self-driving technology. In the latest turn of events regarding the NHTSA’s ongoing probe on whether Tesla’s Autopilot is defective following reports of multiple crashes involving emergency vehicles, the regulatory agency has demanded a&nbsp;legal and technical explanation&nbsp;from the EV maker on how and why an over-the-air update is sufficient to patch the fix as opposed to a recall. The NHTSA currently requires an official recall notice be filed to the agency by automakers looking to patch over-the-air updates as a mean to mitigate software defects that could pose a risk to vehicle safety. Tesla has also been requested by the regulatory body to provide details on its timeline for the commercial roll out of FSD, as well as the list of buyers of the $10,000 add-on service. Considering the series of high profile regulatory scrutiny over Tesla’s full self-driving technology, it remains unclear on how soon the EV maker can achieve its robotaxi aspirations, which makes the extension of even higher valuation prospects a difficult decision to justify at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克最初承诺在2020年底前实现特斯拉机器人出租车的商业部署。然而，到目前为止，只发布了先进的“自动驾驶”驾驶辅助系统及其“全自动驾驶”（“FSD”）的测试版，后者仅限于具有特定驾驶行为要求的选择性用户群体。与此同时，包括Alphabet的 Waymo、通用汽车的 Cruise 和英特尔的 Mobileye 在内的其他自动驾驶汽车公司已经在美国、欧洲和以色列启动或计划在未来 12 个月内启动试点项目。监管机构对特斯拉自动驾驶技术安全性和有效性的审查日益严格，进一步加剧了延误。在接到多起涉及应急车辆的撞车事故报告后，美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）正在对特斯拉的自动驾驶仪是否存在缺陷进行调查，该监管机构要求这家电动汽车制造商做出法律和技术解释，说明空中更新如何以及为什么足以修补问题，而不是召回。NHTSA 目前要求希望修补无线更新的汽车制造商向该机构提交正式召回通知，以减轻可能对车辆安全构成风险的软件缺陷。监管机构还要求特斯拉提供 FSD 商业推广时间表的详细信息，以及 10,000 美元附加服务的买家名单。考虑到监管机构对特斯拉全自动驾驶技术的一系列备受瞩目的审查，这家电动汽车制造商多久能实现其机器人出租车的愿望仍不明朗，这使得延长更高的估值前景目前很难做出合理的决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s stock price is likely to remain elevated in the immediate term as the company’s earnings release for Q3 draws near. Better-than-expected delivery volumes amidst a dire situation across the broader automotive sector due to overhanging supply chain constraints have boosted investors’ expectations for another round of record-setting earnings from Tesla this quarter. Yet, the sentiment is expected to moderate as soon as the actual financial results are out, driving the stock price back towards the high-$700 to $800 level considering it is already being traded at levels as if strong fundamentals have been priced in. As such, our stance remains neutral on the stock ahead of its upcoming release of third quarter results.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉第三季度财报的临近，该公司的股价在短期内可能会保持高位。由于供应链限制悬而未决，整个汽车行业形势严峻，但交付量好于预期，这提高了投资者对特斯拉本季度新一轮创纪录盈利的预期。然而，一旦实际财务业绩公布，市场情绪预计将有所缓和，考虑到股价已经处于强劲基本面已被消化的水平，股价将回到 700 至 800 美元的高位。因此，在即将发布的第三季度业绩之前，我们对该股的立场保持中立。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Tesla Stock A Buy Or Sell Before Upcoming Earnings?<blockquote>在即将发布的财报之前，特斯拉股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Tesla Stock A Buy Or Sell Before Upcoming Earnings?<blockquote>在即将发布的财报之前，特斯拉股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-19 10:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Earlier this month, Tesla released Q3 global delivery volumes of 241,300 vehicles, a record for the electric vehicle titan.</li>  <li>The figures set stage for better-than-expected Q3 earnings results, which is slated for release in a couple of days.</li>  <li>Investors have responded positively to the news, catapulting the stock past the $800 mark over the past week.</li>  <li>The stock price will likely remain elevated ahead of Tesla's upcoming release of Q3 financial results. However, the sentiment-driven uptick is expected to dial back towards the high-$700 to $800 level shortly after to reflect Tesla's renewed intrinsic value on improved fundamentals.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ae7d88ff7a98961733633ea30e5503\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1101\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本月早些时候，特斯拉公布第三季度全球交付量为 241,300 辆，创下了电动汽车巨头的纪录。</li><li>这些数据为好于预期的第三季度盈利结果奠定了基础，该结果预计将在几天内发布。</li><li>投资者对这一消息做出了积极反应，该股在过去一周突破了 800 美元大关。</li><li>在特斯拉即将发布第三季度财务业绩之前，股价可能会保持高位。然而，情绪驱动的上涨预计将在不久后回落至 700 美元至 800 美元的高位，以反映特斯拉因基本面改善而更新的内在价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA)stockhas been on a steady uptrend since May, gaining almost 50% as rising global electric vehicle (“EV”) demand continues to underpin record-setting sales growth for the automaker. Tesla’s recent release of record-setting deliveries of 241,300 vehicles worldwide for the third quarter has gotten investors eyeing better-than-expected results at the upcoming earnings call. Paired with an overall improvement in market sentiment following&nbsp;recent reports&nbsp;of bottoming initial unemployment benefit claims and slowing producer price increases, which have assuaged fears of inflation eroding economic recovery, the stock has been further catapulted past the $800 mark with strong upward momentum over the past week.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）的股价自 5 月份以来一直处于稳步上升趋势，随着全球电动汽车 (“EV”) 需求的增长继续支撑该汽车制造商创纪录的销售增长，股价上涨了近 50%。特斯拉最近公布的第三季度全球交付量达到创纪录的 24.13 万辆，这让投资者开始关注即将举行的财报看涨期权好于预期的业绩。最近有报道称首次申请失业救济人数触底，生产者价格上涨放缓，市场情绪整体改善，缓解了对通胀侵蚀经济复苏的担忧，该股在过去一周以强劲的上涨势头进一步突破 800 美元大关。</blockquote></p><p> The stock will likely continue to benefit from an immediate boost considering improved investor sentiment stemming from expectations for upbeat results at the upcoming earnings call. But despite a strong quarter that points to a continued competitive advantage in managing ongoing operational pressures from supply chain constraints and accelerating global EV demand, the stock’s current price levels are already reflective of the company’s projected intrinsic value. While Tesla continues to improve from a fundamental point of view with continued outperforming sales across the board, new material catalysts would be required to sustain further expansion from a valuation standpoint. On this basis, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of Tesla’s upcoming earnings release, with a revised 12-month price target of $806.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到投资者对即将举行的财报看涨期权乐观结果的预期改善了投资者情绪，该股可能会继续受益于即将到来的提振。不过，尽管本季度表现强劲，表明在管理供应链限制和全球电动汽车需求加速带来的持续运营压力方面继续具有竞争优势，但该股目前的价格水平已经反映了公司的预计内在价值。虽然从基本面来看，特斯拉持续向好，销售持续全面跑赢大盘，但从估值角度来看，需要新材料催化剂来维持进一步扩张。在此基础上，在特斯拉即将发布的财报之前，我们维持对该股的持有评级，修订后的 12 个月目标价为 806 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Better-Than-Expected Q3 Delivery Volumes and What It Implies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度交付量好于预期及其意味着什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite a severely constrained supply of semiconductors and other supply chain chaos like congested ports, Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the third quarter. The quarter marks Tesla’s&nbsp;best one yet, while also surpassing the average consensus estimate and Tesla guide for global deliveries of 223,677 vehicles and 221,952 vehicles, respectively. The results were a testament to Tesla’s exceptional handling of the ongoing chip supply crisis and logistical constraints, which continue to be a major overhang on the automotive sector. Even Volkswagen, one of Tesla’s strongest competitors, has openly complimented on the EV maker’s ability in leveraging proprietary software it had developed to enable compatibility with different suppliers’ chips as an “impressive” mean in navigating swiftly through the crisis.</p><p><blockquote>尽管半导体供应严重受限，港口拥堵等其他供应链混乱，特斯拉第三季度在全球交付了241,300辆汽车。本季度是特斯拉迄今为止最好的一个季度，同时也超过了全球交付量的平均共识估计值和特斯拉指南，分别为 223,677 辆和 221,952 辆。这一结果证明了特斯拉对持续存在的芯片供应危机和物流限制的出色处理，而这些问题仍然是汽车行业的一大突出问题。就连特斯拉最强劲的竞争对手之一大众汽车也公开称赞这家电动汽车制造商能够利用其开发的专有软件与不同供应商的芯片兼容，这是迅速度过危机的 “令人印象深刻 ”手段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Improved China Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>改善中国销售</b></blockquote></p><p> Of the 241,300 vehicles delivered, more than 73,000 vehicles were attributable to local sales in China. Tesla delivered&nbsp;56,006 vehicles&nbsp;produced from its Shanghai manufacturing plant in the month of September alone, with only 3,853 of which were exported to Europe. The results are a turnaround from depressed second quarter and July sales in the largest and fastest-growing EV market in the world, following a slew of negative press ranging from the&nbsp;April protest&nbsp;at the Shanghai Auto Show to the&nbsp;June recall&nbsp;of almost every Tesla vehicle sold in China due to a flaw in the vehicles’ active cruise control feature. It is also a sign that Tesla has been and continues to be doing just fine, if not even better, in satisfying robust demand from the Chinese market, despite rising competition from domestic peers like&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO),Li Auto&nbsp;(NASDAQ:LI)&nbsp;and XPeng&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV).</p><p><blockquote>在交付的241,300辆汽车中，超过73,000辆来自中国本地销售。仅 9 月份，特斯拉上海制造厂生产的汽车就交付了 56,006 辆，其中只有 3,853 辆出口到欧洲。在这个全球最大、增长最快的电动汽车市场，第二季度和 7 月份销量低迷的情况出现了转机。在此之前，从 4 月份上海车展上的抗议活动到 6 月份几乎所有在华销售的特斯拉汽车都因车辆的主动巡航控制功能存在缺陷而被召回，一系列负面新闻纷至沓来。这也表明，尽管来自蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）、理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）等国内同行的竞争日益激烈，但特斯拉在满足中国市场的强劲需求方面一直并将继续做得很好，甚至更好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With China’s new car sales&nbsp;down 17% in September&nbsp;and 13% in the entire third quarter due to a prolonged lack of chips, Tesla’s record-setting deliveries in the region further corroborates its strength in keeping related impacts at bay and under control. Although Elon Musk has continued to blame the “global shortage of chips and ships” as the biggest roadblock to maintaining sales growth of more than 50%, Tesla has fared the best amongst its peers, which will likely continue to reel from supply bottlenecks through to the end of 2022. The China Machinery Industry Federation has recently estimated&nbsp;two million fewer vehicles&nbsp;produced in China this year. The same narrative applies on the global sale, with a recently revised estimate on the quantified impact of ongoing chip supply shortages for the global automotive sector jumping to&nbsp;$210 billion, equivalent to 7.7 million fewer vehicles produced compared to a previous forecast of 3.9 million vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>由于长期缺乏芯片，中国 9 月份新车销量下降了 17%，整个第三季度下降了 13%，特斯拉在该地区创纪录的交付量进一步证实了其在控制相关影响方面的实力。尽管埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）继续指责 “全球芯片和船舶短缺 ”是维持 50% 以上销售增长的最大障碍，但特斯拉在同行中表现最好，很可能会继续摆脱供应瓶颈，直到 2022 年底。中国机械工业联合会最近估计，今年中国汽车产量将减少200万辆。同样的说法也适用于全球销售，最近修订的对全球汽车行业持续芯片供应短缺的量化影响的估计跃升至 2100 亿美元，相当于比之前预测的 390 万辆减少了 770 万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> <b>High-Margin Model 3/Y Sales Leading the Way</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高利润 Model 3/Y 销量领先</b></blockquote></p><p> As a pioneer and leader of the industry, Tesla remains a closely watched gauge for global EV adoption rates. Model 3 and Model Y sales accounted for more than 96% of third quarter deliveries. As the lower priced, higher-margin models, the Model 3 and Model Y were made to better appeal to mass market demand. The China-made Model Y boasts a competitive price tag of under $53,000, but earns a profit margin of&nbsp;close to 30%&nbsp;for Tesla, while the industry average hovers at only 8% to 10%. And now, with Model 3 and Model Y sales leading the way, not only do Tesla’s fundamentals benefit from better margins, but the trend also underpins rapid global EV adoption and robust demand for new energy vehicles around the world. This further corroborates the promising growth trajectory of Tesla’s core vehicle sales unit from a fundamental standpoint.</p><p><blockquote>作为该行业的先驱和领导者，特斯拉仍然是全球电动汽车采用率备受关注的指标。Model 3 和 Model Y 销量占第三季度交付量的 96% 以上。作为价格较低、利润较高的车型，Model 3 和 Model Y 旨在更好地吸引大众市场需求。中国制造的Model Y拥有不到53,000美元的有竞争力的价格，但特斯拉的利润率接近30%，而行业平均水平仅为8%至10%。现在，随着 Model 3 和 Model Y 的销量领先，特斯拉的基本面不仅受益于更高的利润率，而且这一趋势也支撑了全球电动汽车的快速普及和全球对新能源汽车的强劲需求。这从基本面上进一步印证了特斯拉核心汽车销售部门的良好增长轨迹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revised Revenue Projections on an Improved Vehicle Sales Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>由于汽车销售前景改善，修订了收入预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our&nbsp;previous forecast&nbsp;for Tesla’s better-than-expected vehicle sales outlook for the rest of the year, considering milder impacts from global supply chain constraints and improved global EV demand, our base case projections estimate total automotive revenues of $44.5 billion by the end of the year. Meanwhile, we have maintained the long-term growth assumption for Tesla’s automotive sales at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 20.1% towards $170.4 billion in revenues by 2030, which is consistent with&nbsp;current market expectations&nbsp;on global EV demand going into the next decade. The growth assumption also takes into consideration Tesla’s expanded production capacity with the new Berlin and Texas manufacturing plants coming online later this year to satisfy the continued surge of demand for EVs. The Berlin plant, in particular, is expected to be gamechanger for the EV maker’s presence in Europe. Tesla’s Shanghai manufacturing facility currently supplies some of the highly demanded Model 3/Y vehicles sold in Europe. But as demand from both the Chinese and European markets continue to surge, the Berlin plant will play a critical role in alleviating any supply bottlenecks and/or logistics challenges pertaining to China exports considering expensive shipping costs and lengthened delivery times from increasingly&nbsp;congested ports. Tesla’s Gigafactory in Berlin is expected to come online as soon as next month, and aims to ramp production capacity up to anywhere between&nbsp;5,000 and 10,000 vehicles per week&nbsp;by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到全球供应链限制和全球电动汽车需求改善带来的温和影响，调整了我们之前对特斯拉今年剩余时间汽车销售前景好于预期的预测，我们的基本案例预测预计到今年年底汽车总收入将达到 445 亿美元。与此同时，我们维持了特斯拉汽车销量的长期增长假设，即到 2030 年，复合年增长率 (“CAGR”) 为 20.1%，到 2030 年，收入将达到 1,704 亿美元，这与当前市场对未来十年全球电动汽车需求的预期一致。增长假设还考虑到了特斯拉扩大的产能，新的柏林和德克萨斯制造工厂将于今年晚些时候投产，以满足电动汽车需求的持续增长。尤其是柏林工厂，预计将改变这家电动汽车制造商在欧洲的业务。特斯拉上海制造工厂目前供应一些在欧洲销售的需求量很大的 Model 3/Y 汽车。但随着中国和欧洲市场的需求持续增长，柏林工厂将在缓解与中国出口相关的任何供应瓶颈和/或物流挑战方面发挥关键作用，考虑到昂贵的运输成本和日益拥挤的港口交货时间延长。特斯拉位于柏林的超级工厂预计最快将于下月投产，目标是到明年年底将产能提高到每周 5000 至 10000 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eadc84e6814f5684c9241c1cc0cd380d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, service revenues are expected to grow accordingly as well, considering they are primarily generated from after-sales vehicle services. Our base case forecast projects $4.0 billion by the end of the year, with growth towards $15.0 billion by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，考虑到服务收入主要来自售后服务，预计服务收入也会相应增长。我们的基本案例预测预计到今年年底将达到 40 亿美元，到本十年末将增长至 150 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242db85aead4054611f1bbcbc00d6c04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Our previous forecast for energy generation and storage revenues remains unchanged, considering Tesla’s continued strategy in prioritizing vehicle productions over energy generation and storage productions in the event of constrained resources:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到特斯拉在资源有限的情况下将汽车生产置于能源发电和存储生产之上的持续战略，我们之前对能源发电和存储收入的预测保持不变：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “Well, by the same token, if we're prioritizing vehicle production, if there's a shortage of cell upward from some reason then we will throttle down Megapack and Powerwall production. So that it could be something's got to give, basically.”Elon Musk,Q2 Earnings Call  Energy generation and storage revenues are expected to total $3.1 billion by the end of the year, and further advance at a CAGR of 8.9% towards $4.7 billion by 2030. The growth assumption applied reflects continued pent-up demand for the Megapack, which has already sold out until next year, and the Powerwall, which continues to accumulate a backlog of orders.</p><p><blockquote>“同样，如果我们优先考虑汽车生产，如果由于某种原因导致电池短缺，那么我们就会降低 Megapack 和 Powerwall 的产量。这样，基本上就可以做出一些贡献了。”埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk），第二季度财报 看涨期权能源发电和存储收入预计到今年年底将达到 31 亿美元，到 2030 年将以 8.9% 的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到 47 亿美元。所应用的增长假设反映了对 Megapack 和 Powerwall 的持续被压抑的需求，Megapack 已经售罄到明年，Powerwall 的持续积压订单。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8bffd547eb5b70da9a3346e474cd264\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, by maintaining the projected cost structure unchanged from our previous coverage, our revised forecast on Tesla’s total earnings come to $4.0 billion by the end of the year, which represents close to a four-fold increase from 2020. The bottom line is expected to further advance towards $15.3 billion by the end of the decade as production and deliveries continue to ramp up across Tesla’s core vehicle sales business, and energy generation and storage systems sales unit.</p><p><blockquote>最后，通过保持我们之前报道的预计成本结构不变，我们对特斯拉今年年底总收入的修订预测将达到 40 亿美元，比 2020 年增长近四倍。随着特斯拉核心汽车销售业务以及能源发电和存储系统销售部门的生产和交付量持续增长，预计到本十年末，利润将进一步达到 153 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d5d9e6c27ac07963cba69d733c04ac2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i. 基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79112498dff0283b72ce0abbd583e41a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>TSLA Stock Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉股票估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e61463f7f99b1028ae14f666a0a40a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consistent with recent developments regarding Tesla’s improved fundamentals from softer supply chain impacts and recovering China sales, we have upped our 12-month price target for the stock to $805.20. Considering our price target approximates Tesla’s current share price levels, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of its upcoming earnings release.</p><p><blockquote>最近，由于供应链影响减弱和中国销售复苏，特斯拉基本面有所改善，因此我们将该股的 12 个月目标价上调至 805.20 美元。考虑到我们的目标价与特斯拉目前的股价水平相近，在即将发布的财报之前，我们仍维持对该股的持有评级。</blockquote></p><p> The price target is derived from a discounted cash flow analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the forecasted financial information analyzed in earlier sections. The key valuation assumptions applied in the analysis, which includes the exit multiple and WACC used to discount projected future earnings, remain unchanged from our previous coverage. An exit multiple of 73.2x is applied to reflect Tesla’s continued leadership within the industry, as well as its growth prospects compared to industry peers. A WACC of 10.1% is applied to discount Tesla’s projected free cash flows in the valuation analysis, which takes into consideration the company’s current risk profile given its continued reduction of leverage with growing cash flows generated from operations.</p><p><blockquote>价格目标乃根据十年离散期间的贴现现金流量分析，结合前面章节分析的预测财务资料得出。分析中应用的主要估值假设（包括用于贴现预计未来收益的退出倍数和 WACC）与我们之前的覆盖范围保持不变。73.2 倍的退出倍数反映了特斯拉在行业内的持续领导地位，以及与行业同行相比的增长前景。在估值分析中，10.1% 的 WACC 用于贴现特斯拉的预计自由现金流，该分析考虑了公司当前的风险状况，因为随着运营产生的现金流不断增长，杠杆率不断降低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31d7c6ee0f8aa921cdb246f73fd5197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>ii.敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94665f6f0d97a11544d25abc5a893de6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"185\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite a big quarter for the EV maker, nothing material has changed from a valuation perspective. Tesla is already one of the largest automakers by market cap, which inches close to the total size of the most reputable legacy automakers in the&nbsp;U.S. and Europe combined. Yet, Tesla’s ranking by vehicle sales volume sits at&nbsp;18th&nbsp;place, which indicates that any improvements to its fundamentals from existing operations, ranging from car sales and related add-on services, to energy generation and storage solutions including its Supercharging network, have already been priced into its current valuation. On this basis, new material catalysts would be required to catapult Tesla’s already sky-high valuation to newer heights. And one of these material changing catalysts would likely include the ultimate rollout of level 4 and level 5 full autonomous driving technology and robotaxis, which continues to be delayed and hampered with increasing regulatory scrutiny.</p><p><blockquote>尽管这家电动汽车制造商的季度业绩很大，但从估值角度来看，没有任何实质性变化。按市值计算，特斯拉已经是最大的汽车制造商之一，接近美国最负盛名的传统汽车制造商的总规模。和欧洲的总和。然而，特斯拉的汽车销量排名第 18 位，这表明其基本面的任何改善，从现有业务（从汽车销售和相关附加服务到包括超级充电网络在内的能源生产和存储解决方案），都已计入其当前估值。在此基础上，需要新的材料催化剂将特斯拉已经天价的估值推向新的高度。这些材料变化催化剂之一可能包括 4 级和 5 级全自动驾驶技术以及 robotaxis 的最终推出，但随着监管审查的增加，这将继续被推迟和阻碍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Musk had originally committed to the commercial deployment of Tesla robotaxis by the end of 2020. Yet, only an advanced “Autopilot” driver-assistance system and a beta version of its “full self-driving” (“FSD”) have been released so far, with the latter being limited to a selective group of users that have metspecific driving behaviour requirements. Meanwhile, others in the race to autonomous mobility, including Alphabet’s Waymo, GM’s Cruise, and Intel’s Mobileye, have already launched, or slated to launch within the next 12 months, pilot programs across the U.S., Europe and Israel. The delays have been further exacerbated by increasing regulatory scrutiny over the safety and effectiveness of Tesla’s self-driving technology. In the latest turn of events regarding the NHTSA’s ongoing probe on whether Tesla’s Autopilot is defective following reports of multiple crashes involving emergency vehicles, the regulatory agency has demanded a&nbsp;legal and technical explanation&nbsp;from the EV maker on how and why an over-the-air update is sufficient to patch the fix as opposed to a recall. The NHTSA currently requires an official recall notice be filed to the agency by automakers looking to patch over-the-air updates as a mean to mitigate software defects that could pose a risk to vehicle safety. Tesla has also been requested by the regulatory body to provide details on its timeline for the commercial roll out of FSD, as well as the list of buyers of the $10,000 add-on service. Considering the series of high profile regulatory scrutiny over Tesla’s full self-driving technology, it remains unclear on how soon the EV maker can achieve its robotaxi aspirations, which makes the extension of even higher valuation prospects a difficult decision to justify at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克最初承诺在2020年底前实现特斯拉机器人出租车的商业部署。然而，到目前为止，只发布了先进的“自动驾驶”驾驶辅助系统及其“全自动驾驶”（“FSD”）的测试版，后者仅限于具有特定驾驶行为要求的选择性用户群体。与此同时，包括Alphabet的 Waymo、通用汽车的 Cruise 和英特尔的 Mobileye 在内的其他自动驾驶汽车公司已经在美国、欧洲和以色列启动或计划在未来 12 个月内启动试点项目。监管机构对特斯拉自动驾驶技术安全性和有效性的审查日益严格，进一步加剧了延误。在接到多起涉及应急车辆的撞车事故报告后，美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）正在对特斯拉的自动驾驶仪是否存在缺陷进行调查，该监管机构要求这家电动汽车制造商做出法律和技术解释，说明空中更新如何以及为什么足以修补问题，而不是召回。NHTSA 目前要求希望修补无线更新的汽车制造商向该机构提交正式召回通知，以减轻可能对车辆安全构成风险的软件缺陷。监管机构还要求特斯拉提供 FSD 商业推广时间表的详细信息，以及 10,000 美元附加服务的买家名单。考虑到监管机构对特斯拉全自动驾驶技术的一系列备受瞩目的审查，这家电动汽车制造商多久能实现其机器人出租车的愿望仍不明朗，这使得延长更高的估值前景目前很难做出合理的决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s stock price is likely to remain elevated in the immediate term as the company’s earnings release for Q3 draws near. Better-than-expected delivery volumes amidst a dire situation across the broader automotive sector due to overhanging supply chain constraints have boosted investors’ expectations for another round of record-setting earnings from Tesla this quarter. Yet, the sentiment is expected to moderate as soon as the actual financial results are out, driving the stock price back towards the high-$700 to $800 level considering it is already being traded at levels as if strong fundamentals have been priced in. As such, our stance remains neutral on the stock ahead of its upcoming release of third quarter results.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉第三季度财报的临近，该公司的股价在短期内可能会保持高位。由于供应链限制悬而未决，整个汽车行业形势严峻，但交付量好于预期，这提高了投资者对特斯拉本季度新一轮创纪录盈利的预期。然而，一旦实际财务业绩公布，市场情绪预计将有所缓和，考虑到股价已经处于强劲基本面已被消化的水平，股价将回到 700 至 800 美元的高位。因此，在即将发布的第三季度业绩之前，我们对该股的立场保持中立。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460453-tesla-stock-buy-sell-upcoming-earnings\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460453-tesla-stock-buy-sell-upcoming-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122978319","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarlier this month, Tesla released Q3 global delivery volumes of 241,300 vehicles, a record for the electric vehicle titan.\nThe figures set stage for better-than-expected Q3 earnings results, which is slated for release in a couple of days.\nInvestors have responded positively to the news, catapulting the stock past the $800 mark over the past week.\nThe stock price will likely remain elevated ahead of Tesla's upcoming release of Q3 financial results. However, the sentiment-driven uptick is expected to dial back towards the high-$700 to $800 level shortly after to reflect Tesla's renewed intrinsic value on improved fundamentals.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nTesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA)stockhas been on a steady uptrend since May, gaining almost 50% as rising global electric vehicle (“EV”) demand continues to underpin record-setting sales growth for the automaker. Tesla’s recent release of record-setting deliveries of 241,300 vehicles worldwide for the third quarter has gotten investors eyeing better-than-expected results at the upcoming earnings call. Paired with an overall improvement in market sentiment following recent reports of bottoming initial unemployment benefit claims and slowing producer price increases, which have assuaged fears of inflation eroding economic recovery, the stock has been further catapulted past the $800 mark with strong upward momentum over the past week.\nThe stock will likely continue to benefit from an immediate boost considering improved investor sentiment stemming from expectations for upbeat results at the upcoming earnings call. But despite a strong quarter that points to a continued competitive advantage in managing ongoing operational pressures from supply chain constraints and accelerating global EV demand, the stock’s current price levels are already reflective of the company’s projected intrinsic value. While Tesla continues to improve from a fundamental point of view with continued outperforming sales across the board, new material catalysts would be required to sustain further expansion from a valuation standpoint. On this basis, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of Tesla’s upcoming earnings release, with a revised 12-month price target of $806.\nBetter-Than-Expected Q3 Delivery Volumes and What It Implies\nDespite a severely constrained supply of semiconductors and other supply chain chaos like congested ports, Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the third quarter. The quarter marks Tesla’s best one yet, while also surpassing the average consensus estimate and Tesla guide for global deliveries of 223,677 vehicles and 221,952 vehicles, respectively. The results were a testament to Tesla’s exceptional handling of the ongoing chip supply crisis and logistical constraints, which continue to be a major overhang on the automotive sector. Even Volkswagen, one of Tesla’s strongest competitors, has openly complimented on the EV maker’s ability in leveraging proprietary software it had developed to enable compatibility with different suppliers’ chips as an “impressive” mean in navigating swiftly through the crisis.\nImproved China Sales\nOf the 241,300 vehicles delivered, more than 73,000 vehicles were attributable to local sales in China. Tesla delivered 56,006 vehicles produced from its Shanghai manufacturing plant in the month of September alone, with only 3,853 of which were exported to Europe. The results are a turnaround from depressed second quarter and July sales in the largest and fastest-growing EV market in the world, following a slew of negative press ranging from the April protest at the Shanghai Auto Show to the June recall of almost every Tesla vehicle sold in China due to a flaw in the vehicles’ active cruise control feature. It is also a sign that Tesla has been and continues to be doing just fine, if not even better, in satisfying robust demand from the Chinese market, despite rising competition from domestic peers like NIO (NYSE:NIO),Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV).\nWith China’s new car sales down 17% in September and 13% in the entire third quarter due to a prolonged lack of chips, Tesla’s record-setting deliveries in the region further corroborates its strength in keeping related impacts at bay and under control. Although Elon Musk has continued to blame the “global shortage of chips and ships” as the biggest roadblock to maintaining sales growth of more than 50%, Tesla has fared the best amongst its peers, which will likely continue to reel from supply bottlenecks through to the end of 2022. The China Machinery Industry Federation has recently estimated two million fewer vehicles produced in China this year. The same narrative applies on the global sale, with a recently revised estimate on the quantified impact of ongoing chip supply shortages for the global automotive sector jumping to $210 billion, equivalent to 7.7 million fewer vehicles produced compared to a previous forecast of 3.9 million vehicles.\nHigh-Margin Model 3/Y Sales Leading the Way\nAs a pioneer and leader of the industry, Tesla remains a closely watched gauge for global EV adoption rates. Model 3 and Model Y sales accounted for more than 96% of third quarter deliveries. As the lower priced, higher-margin models, the Model 3 and Model Y were made to better appeal to mass market demand. The China-made Model Y boasts a competitive price tag of under $53,000, but earns a profit margin of close to 30% for Tesla, while the industry average hovers at only 8% to 10%. And now, with Model 3 and Model Y sales leading the way, not only do Tesla’s fundamentals benefit from better margins, but the trend also underpins rapid global EV adoption and robust demand for new energy vehicles around the world. This further corroborates the promising growth trajectory of Tesla’s core vehicle sales unit from a fundamental standpoint.\nRevised Revenue Projections on an Improved Vehicle Sales Outlook\nAdjusting our previous forecast for Tesla’s better-than-expected vehicle sales outlook for the rest of the year, considering milder impacts from global supply chain constraints and improved global EV demand, our base case projections estimate total automotive revenues of $44.5 billion by the end of the year. Meanwhile, we have maintained the long-term growth assumption for Tesla’s automotive sales at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 20.1% towards $170.4 billion in revenues by 2030, which is consistent with current market expectations on global EV demand going into the next decade. The growth assumption also takes into consideration Tesla’s expanded production capacity with the new Berlin and Texas manufacturing plants coming online later this year to satisfy the continued surge of demand for EVs. The Berlin plant, in particular, is expected to be gamechanger for the EV maker’s presence in Europe. Tesla’s Shanghai manufacturing facility currently supplies some of the highly demanded Model 3/Y vehicles sold in Europe. But as demand from both the Chinese and European markets continue to surge, the Berlin plant will play a critical role in alleviating any supply bottlenecks and/or logistics challenges pertaining to China exports considering expensive shipping costs and lengthened delivery times from increasingly congested ports. Tesla’s Gigafactory in Berlin is expected to come online as soon as next month, and aims to ramp production capacity up to anywhere between 5,000 and 10,000 vehicles per week by the end of next year.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts\nOn the other hand, service revenues are expected to grow accordingly as well, considering they are primarily generated from after-sales vehicle services. Our base case forecast projects $4.0 billion by the end of the year, with growth towards $15.0 billion by the end of the decade.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nOur previous forecast for energy generation and storage revenues remains unchanged, considering Tesla’s continued strategy in prioritizing vehicle productions over energy generation and storage productions in the event of constrained resources:\n\n “Well, by the same token, if we're prioritizing vehicle production, if there's a shortage of cell upward from some reason then we will throttle down Megapack and Powerwall production. So that it could be something's got to give, basically.”Elon Musk,Q2 Earnings Call\n\nEnergy generation and storage revenues are expected to total $3.1 billion by the end of the year, and further advance at a CAGR of 8.9% towards $4.7 billion by 2030. The growth assumption applied reflects continued pent-up demand for the Megapack, which has already sold out until next year, and the Powerwall, which continues to accumulate a backlog of orders.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nLastly, by maintaining the projected cost structure unchanged from our previous coverage, our revised forecast on Tesla’s total earnings come to $4.0 billion by the end of the year, which represents close to a four-fold increase from 2020. The bottom line is expected to further advance towards $15.3 billion by the end of the decade as production and deliveries continue to ramp up across Tesla’s core vehicle sales business, and energy generation and storage systems sales unit.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nTSLA Stock Valuation\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConsistent with recent developments regarding Tesla’s improved fundamentals from softer supply chain impacts and recovering China sales, we have upped our 12-month price target for the stock to $805.20. Considering our price target approximates Tesla’s current share price levels, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of its upcoming earnings release.\nThe price target is derived from a discounted cash flow analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the forecasted financial information analyzed in earlier sections. The key valuation assumptions applied in the analysis, which includes the exit multiple and WACC used to discount projected future earnings, remain unchanged from our previous coverage. An exit multiple of 73.2x is applied to reflect Tesla’s continued leadership within the industry, as well as its growth prospects compared to industry peers. A WACC of 10.1% is applied to discount Tesla’s projected free cash flows in the valuation analysis, which takes into consideration the company’s current risk profile given its continued reduction of leverage with growing cash flows generated from operations.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nii. Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nDespite a big quarter for the EV maker, nothing material has changed from a valuation perspective. Tesla is already one of the largest automakers by market cap, which inches close to the total size of the most reputable legacy automakers in the U.S. and Europe combined. Yet, Tesla’s ranking by vehicle sales volume sits at 18th place, which indicates that any improvements to its fundamentals from existing operations, ranging from car sales and related add-on services, to energy generation and storage solutions including its Supercharging network, have already been priced into its current valuation. On this basis, new material catalysts would be required to catapult Tesla’s already sky-high valuation to newer heights. And one of these material changing catalysts would likely include the ultimate rollout of level 4 and level 5 full autonomous driving technology and robotaxis, which continues to be delayed and hampered with increasing regulatory scrutiny.\nMusk had originally committed to the commercial deployment of Tesla robotaxis by the end of 2020. Yet, only an advanced “Autopilot” driver-assistance system and a beta version of its “full self-driving” (“FSD”) have been released so far, with the latter being limited to a selective group of users that have metspecific driving behaviour requirements. Meanwhile, others in the race to autonomous mobility, including Alphabet’s Waymo, GM’s Cruise, and Intel’s Mobileye, have already launched, or slated to launch within the next 12 months, pilot programs across the U.S., Europe and Israel. The delays have been further exacerbated by increasing regulatory scrutiny over the safety and effectiveness of Tesla’s self-driving technology. In the latest turn of events regarding the NHTSA’s ongoing probe on whether Tesla’s Autopilot is defective following reports of multiple crashes involving emergency vehicles, the regulatory agency has demanded a legal and technical explanation from the EV maker on how and why an over-the-air update is sufficient to patch the fix as opposed to a recall. The NHTSA currently requires an official recall notice be filed to the agency by automakers looking to patch over-the-air updates as a mean to mitigate software defects that could pose a risk to vehicle safety. Tesla has also been requested by the regulatory body to provide details on its timeline for the commercial roll out of FSD, as well as the list of buyers of the $10,000 add-on service. Considering the series of high profile regulatory scrutiny over Tesla’s full self-driving technology, it remains unclear on how soon the EV maker can achieve its robotaxi aspirations, which makes the extension of even higher valuation prospects a difficult decision to justify at the moment.\nConclusion\nTesla’s stock price is likely to remain elevated in the immediate term as the company’s earnings release for Q3 draws near. Better-than-expected delivery volumes amidst a dire situation across the broader automotive sector due to overhanging supply chain constraints have boosted investors’ expectations for another round of record-setting earnings from Tesla this quarter. Yet, the sentiment is expected to moderate as soon as the actual financial results are out, driving the stock price back towards the high-$700 to $800 level considering it is already being traded at levels as if strong fundamentals have been priced in. As such, our stance remains neutral on the stock ahead of its upcoming release of third quarter results.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850816422,"gmtCreate":1634570417989,"gmtModify":1634570421270,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578559022708914","idStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> bullish","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> bullish","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ bullish","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd5bcbd230f4e4f410ba23875f8f0a6","width":"1125","height":"3314"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850816422","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822511588,"gmtCreate":1634141251292,"gmtModify":1634141252127,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578559022708914","idStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822511588","repostId":"2175516391","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826146321,"gmtCreate":1633999446729,"gmtModify":1633999447513,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578559022708914","idStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"about time","listText":"about time","text":"about time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826146321","repostId":"1198890424","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198890424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633996308,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198890424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 07:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chevron Adopts Operational Net Zero ‘Aspiration’ by 2050<blockquote>雪佛龙到 2050 年实现运营净零“愿景”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198890424","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp. committed to an “aspiration” of net zero emissions from its operations ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp. committed to an “aspiration” of net zero emissions from its operations by 2050 as the company responds to rising investor and societal pressure to play a bigger role in a transition to a low-carbon future.</p><p><blockquote>(彭博社）--雪佛龙公司（Chevron Corp.</blockquote></p><p> Chevron also set a target of reducing carbon intensity by 5% from 2016 levels by 2028 for the full lifecycle of its products, the San Ramon, California-based company said Monday in a report. The target includes Scope 3 emissions, or those of its customers, which make up the majority of fossil fuel pollution.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于加利福尼亚州圣拉蒙的雪佛龙公司周一在一份报告中表示，雪佛龙还设定了到 2028 年将其产品整个生命周期的碳强度从 2016 年的水平降低 5% 的目标。该目标包括范围 3 排放或其客户的排放，这些排放占化石燃料污染的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> While the pledge falls short of those made by European peers such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc, it’s the first time Chevron has outlined a multi-decade strategic commitment to reduce emissions. U.S. majors have been more reticent in adopting bold, long-term targets due to uncertainty over how to actually achieve them, an unwillingness to make large moves outside their core competency areas, and a desire to produce more oil and gas.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这一承诺不及荷兰皇家壳牌公司（Royal Dutch Shell Plc）和英国石油公司（BP Plc）等欧洲同行的承诺，但这是雪佛龙首次概述了数十年的减排战略承诺。由于不确定如何实际实现这些目标、不愿在核心能力领域之外采取重大举措以及希望生产更多石油和天然气，美国主要企业在采用大胆的长期目标方面一直较为谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> “In transition, companies that are delivering any unit of energy in at a more efficient carbon intensity are beneficial to our overall progress,” Bruce Niemeyer, Chevron’s vice president for sustainability and strategy, said in an interview. “That’s the most important thing.”</p><p><blockquote>“雪佛龙负责可持续发展和战略的副总裁布鲁斯-尼迈耶（Bruce Niemeyer）在接受采访时说：”在转型过程中，以更高效的碳强度提供任何单位能源的公司都有利于我们的整体进步。“这才是最重要的。”</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not it’s enough to appease shareholders remains to be seen. In May investors defied Chevron’s board and voted to reduce Scope 3 emissions on an absolute basis, not just intensity, which is a measure tied to the amount of energy produced.</p><p><blockquote>这是否足以安抚股东还有待观察。今年 5 月，投资者无视雪佛龙董事会的意见，投票决定在绝对基础上减少范围 3 的排放，而不仅仅是强度，强度是与能源生产量挂钩的衡量标准。</blockquote></p><p> Follow This, the Dutch campaigner that filed the investor proposal, said Chevron’s new goal is “disappointing tokenism.” Rather than a 5% reduction in Scope 3 intensity, absolute emissions need to come down by 40% by 2030 to have any chance of achieving the 2016 Paris Agreement, the group said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>随后，提交投资者提案的荷兰活动人士表示，雪佛龙的新目标是 “消除令人失望的象征性主义”。该组织在一份声明中表示，到 2030 年，绝对排放量需要减少 40%，而不是范围 3 强度减少 5%，才有机会实现 2016 年巴黎协定。</blockquote></p><p> Niemeyer said today’s climate report “reflects a lot of investor feedback.”</p><p><blockquote>尼迈耶说，今天的气候报告 “反映了投资者的大量反馈”。</blockquote></p><p> Chevron isn’t the first U.S. oil company to adopt looser language around the definition “net zero” than when the term was first introduced a few years ago. ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum Corp. have also set 2050 net zero as an ambition or an aspiration rather than a hard target.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙并不是第一家围绕 “净零 ”定义采用比几年前首次引入时更宽松语言的美国石油公司。康菲石油公司和西方石油公司也将 2050 年净零设定为雄心或愿望，而不是硬性目标。</blockquote></p><p> But semantics aside, even those oil companies with seemingly stringent targets are light on detail with how to eliminate carbon emissions from their fossil fuels, especially in the outer decades of their plans. Exxon Mobil Corp. executives expressed skepticism over net zero targets earlier this year in a meeting with Citigroup Inc. banker Stephen Trauber because they had no concrete plans of how get there.</p><p><blockquote>但撇开语义不谈，即使是那些目标看似严格的石油公司，对于如何消除化石燃料碳排放的细节也知之甚少，尤其是在他们计划的最后几十年。今年早些时候，埃克森美孚公司高管在与花旗集团银行家斯蒂芬·特劳伯会面时对净零目标表示怀疑，因为他们没有如何实现这一目标的具体计划。</blockquote></p><p> “I assured them most companies today who have committed to net zero don’t have a plan on how to get there, but they’re working to get there,” Trauber said last month.</p><p><blockquote>“特劳伯上个月说：”我向他们保证，目前大多数承诺实现净零排放的公司都没有如何实现这一目标的计划，但他们正在努力实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p> Exxon is routinely evaluating its climate pledges “to reflect the changing landscape,” it said in a statement at the time. The company was forced to replace three of its directors earlier this year after an activist campaign that claimed the oil giant was ill-equipped for the energy transition.</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚当时在一份声明中说，它正在定期评估其气候承诺，“以反映不断变化的形势”。今年早些时候，在一场活动人士运动声称这家石油巨头在能源转型方面装备不足后，该公司被迫更换了三名董事。</blockquote></p><p> Chevron’s announcement is “positive,” but “these are small steps when what investors asked for is a giant leap,” said Andrew Logan of Ceres, a nonprofit coalition of companies and investors who manage more than $47 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙的声明是 “积极的”，但 “当投资者所要求的是一个巨大的飞跃时，这些只是一小步”，Ceres 是一个由管理着超过 47 万亿美元资产的公司和投资者组成的非营利性联盟。</blockquote></p><p> “What investors called for in casting their support for a shareholder proposal on Scope 3 targets this spring was a bold move to address product risk, one that was commensurate with the scale and scope of the climate challenge,” Logan said.</p><p><blockquote>“洛根说：”今年春天，投资者在支持范围 3 目标的股东提案时呼吁采取大胆的举措，以应对产品风险，这一举措与气候挑战的规模和范围相称。</blockquote></p><p> Chevron Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth last month emphasized what he sees as the importance of having an credible carbon strategy that balances the world’s need for reliable energy with the lowering of emissions. The current global shortage of natural gas, along with the run-up in oil and coal prices over the past few weeks, emphasizes how the world is still highly dependent upon fossil fuels.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙首席执行官迈克-沃斯（Mike Wirth）上个月强调了他认为制定可信的碳战略的重要性，该战略应在全球对可靠能源的需求与降低排放之间取得平衡。当前全球天然气短缺，加上过去几周石油和煤炭价格的上涨，凸显了世界仍然高度依赖化石燃料。</blockquote></p><p> The energy crunch in Asia and Europe show that “we must be very thoughtful in how we go about the transition,” Chevron’s Niemeyer said. “Prematurely cutting of one form of energy before the transition is really effected can be really problematic for us as a society.”</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙公司的尼迈耶说：“亚洲和欧洲的能源危机表明，“我们必须非常深思熟虑地进行转型”。“在转型真正生效之前，过早地削减一种能源形式，对我们这个社会来说可能会造成真正的问题”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chevron Adopts Operational Net Zero ‘Aspiration’ by 2050<blockquote>雪佛龙到 2050 年实现运营净零“愿景”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChevron Adopts Operational Net Zero ‘Aspiration’ by 2050<blockquote>雪佛龙到 2050 年实现运营净零“愿景”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-12 07:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp. committed to an “aspiration” of net zero emissions from its operations by 2050 as the company responds to rising investor and societal pressure to play a bigger role in a transition to a low-carbon future.</p><p><blockquote>(彭博社）--雪佛龙公司（Chevron Corp.</blockquote></p><p> Chevron also set a target of reducing carbon intensity by 5% from 2016 levels by 2028 for the full lifecycle of its products, the San Ramon, California-based company said Monday in a report. The target includes Scope 3 emissions, or those of its customers, which make up the majority of fossil fuel pollution.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于加利福尼亚州圣拉蒙的雪佛龙公司周一在一份报告中表示，雪佛龙还设定了到 2028 年将其产品整个生命周期的碳强度从 2016 年的水平降低 5% 的目标。该目标包括范围 3 排放或其客户的排放，这些排放占化石燃料污染的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> While the pledge falls short of those made by European peers such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc, it’s the first time Chevron has outlined a multi-decade strategic commitment to reduce emissions. U.S. majors have been more reticent in adopting bold, long-term targets due to uncertainty over how to actually achieve them, an unwillingness to make large moves outside their core competency areas, and a desire to produce more oil and gas.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这一承诺不及荷兰皇家壳牌公司（Royal Dutch Shell Plc）和英国石油公司（BP Plc）等欧洲同行的承诺，但这是雪佛龙首次概述了数十年的减排战略承诺。由于不确定如何实际实现这些目标、不愿在核心能力领域之外采取重大举措以及希望生产更多石油和天然气，美国主要企业在采用大胆的长期目标方面一直较为谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> “In transition, companies that are delivering any unit of energy in at a more efficient carbon intensity are beneficial to our overall progress,” Bruce Niemeyer, Chevron’s vice president for sustainability and strategy, said in an interview. “That’s the most important thing.”</p><p><blockquote>“雪佛龙负责可持续发展和战略的副总裁布鲁斯-尼迈耶（Bruce Niemeyer）在接受采访时说：”在转型过程中，以更高效的碳强度提供任何单位能源的公司都有利于我们的整体进步。“这才是最重要的。”</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not it’s enough to appease shareholders remains to be seen. In May investors defied Chevron’s board and voted to reduce Scope 3 emissions on an absolute basis, not just intensity, which is a measure tied to the amount of energy produced.</p><p><blockquote>这是否足以安抚股东还有待观察。今年 5 月，投资者无视雪佛龙董事会的意见，投票决定在绝对基础上减少范围 3 的排放，而不仅仅是强度，强度是与能源生产量挂钩的衡量标准。</blockquote></p><p> Follow This, the Dutch campaigner that filed the investor proposal, said Chevron’s new goal is “disappointing tokenism.” Rather than a 5% reduction in Scope 3 intensity, absolute emissions need to come down by 40% by 2030 to have any chance of achieving the 2016 Paris Agreement, the group said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>随后，提交投资者提案的荷兰活动人士表示，雪佛龙的新目标是 “消除令人失望的象征性主义”。该组织在一份声明中表示，到 2030 年，绝对排放量需要减少 40%，而不是范围 3 强度减少 5%，才有机会实现 2016 年巴黎协定。</blockquote></p><p> Niemeyer said today’s climate report “reflects a lot of investor feedback.”</p><p><blockquote>尼迈耶说，今天的气候报告 “反映了投资者的大量反馈”。</blockquote></p><p> Chevron isn’t the first U.S. oil company to adopt looser language around the definition “net zero” than when the term was first introduced a few years ago. ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum Corp. have also set 2050 net zero as an ambition or an aspiration rather than a hard target.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙并不是第一家围绕 “净零 ”定义采用比几年前首次引入时更宽松语言的美国石油公司。康菲石油公司和西方石油公司也将 2050 年净零设定为雄心或愿望，而不是硬性目标。</blockquote></p><p> But semantics aside, even those oil companies with seemingly stringent targets are light on detail with how to eliminate carbon emissions from their fossil fuels, especially in the outer decades of their plans. Exxon Mobil Corp. executives expressed skepticism over net zero targets earlier this year in a meeting with Citigroup Inc. banker Stephen Trauber because they had no concrete plans of how get there.</p><p><blockquote>但撇开语义不谈，即使是那些目标看似严格的石油公司，对于如何消除化石燃料碳排放的细节也知之甚少，尤其是在他们计划的最后几十年。今年早些时候，埃克森美孚公司高管在与花旗集团银行家斯蒂芬·特劳伯会面时对净零目标表示怀疑，因为他们没有如何实现这一目标的具体计划。</blockquote></p><p> “I assured them most companies today who have committed to net zero don’t have a plan on how to get there, but they’re working to get there,” Trauber said last month.</p><p><blockquote>“特劳伯上个月说：”我向他们保证，目前大多数承诺实现净零排放的公司都没有如何实现这一目标的计划，但他们正在努力实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p> Exxon is routinely evaluating its climate pledges “to reflect the changing landscape,” it said in a statement at the time. The company was forced to replace three of its directors earlier this year after an activist campaign that claimed the oil giant was ill-equipped for the energy transition.</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚当时在一份声明中说，它正在定期评估其气候承诺，“以反映不断变化的形势”。今年早些时候，在一场活动人士运动声称这家石油巨头在能源转型方面装备不足后，该公司被迫更换了三名董事。</blockquote></p><p> Chevron’s announcement is “positive,” but “these are small steps when what investors asked for is a giant leap,” said Andrew Logan of Ceres, a nonprofit coalition of companies and investors who manage more than $47 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙的声明是 “积极的”，但 “当投资者所要求的是一个巨大的飞跃时，这些只是一小步”，Ceres 是一个由管理着超过 47 万亿美元资产的公司和投资者组成的非营利性联盟。</blockquote></p><p> “What investors called for in casting their support for a shareholder proposal on Scope 3 targets this spring was a bold move to address product risk, one that was commensurate with the scale and scope of the climate challenge,” Logan said.</p><p><blockquote>“洛根说：”今年春天，投资者在支持范围 3 目标的股东提案时呼吁采取大胆的举措，以应对产品风险，这一举措与气候挑战的规模和范围相称。</blockquote></p><p> Chevron Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth last month emphasized what he sees as the importance of having an credible carbon strategy that balances the world’s need for reliable energy with the lowering of emissions. The current global shortage of natural gas, along with the run-up in oil and coal prices over the past few weeks, emphasizes how the world is still highly dependent upon fossil fuels.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙首席执行官迈克-沃斯（Mike Wirth）上个月强调了他认为制定可信的碳战略的重要性，该战略应在全球对可靠能源的需求与降低排放之间取得平衡。当前全球天然气短缺，加上过去几周石油和煤炭价格的上涨，凸显了世界仍然高度依赖化石燃料。</blockquote></p><p> The energy crunch in Asia and Europe show that “we must be very thoughtful in how we go about the transition,” Chevron’s Niemeyer said. “Prematurely cutting of one form of energy before the transition is really effected can be really problematic for us as a society.”</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙公司的尼迈耶说：“亚洲和欧洲的能源危机表明，“我们必须非常深思熟虑地进行转型”。“在转型真正生效之前，过早地削减一种能源形式，对我们这个社会来说可能会造成真正的问题”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chevron-targets-net-zero-emissions-105738194.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CVX":"雪佛龙"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chevron-targets-net-zero-emissions-105738194.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198890424","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp. committed to an “aspiration” of net zero emissions from its operations by 2050 as the company responds to rising investor and societal pressure to play a bigger role in a transition to a low-carbon future.\nChevron also set a target of reducing carbon intensity by 5% from 2016 levels by 2028 for the full lifecycle of its products, the San Ramon, California-based company said Monday in a report. The target includes Scope 3 emissions, or those of its customers, which make up the majority of fossil fuel pollution.\nWhile the pledge falls short of those made by European peers such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc, it’s the first time Chevron has outlined a multi-decade strategic commitment to reduce emissions. U.S. majors have been more reticent in adopting bold, long-term targets due to uncertainty over how to actually achieve them, an unwillingness to make large moves outside their core competency areas, and a desire to produce more oil and gas.\n“In transition, companies that are delivering any unit of energy in at a more efficient carbon intensity are beneficial to our overall progress,” Bruce Niemeyer, Chevron’s vice president for sustainability and strategy, said in an interview. “That’s the most important thing.”\nWhether or not it’s enough to appease shareholders remains to be seen. In May investors defied Chevron’s board and voted to reduce Scope 3 emissions on an absolute basis, not just intensity, which is a measure tied to the amount of energy produced.\nFollow This, the Dutch campaigner that filed the investor proposal, said Chevron’s new goal is “disappointing tokenism.” Rather than a 5% reduction in Scope 3 intensity, absolute emissions need to come down by 40% by 2030 to have any chance of achieving the 2016 Paris Agreement, the group said in a statement.\nNiemeyer said today’s climate report “reflects a lot of investor feedback.”\nChevron isn’t the first U.S. oil company to adopt looser language around the definition “net zero” than when the term was first introduced a few years ago. ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum Corp. have also set 2050 net zero as an ambition or an aspiration rather than a hard target.\nBut semantics aside, even those oil companies with seemingly stringent targets are light on detail with how to eliminate carbon emissions from their fossil fuels, especially in the outer decades of their plans. Exxon Mobil Corp. executives expressed skepticism over net zero targets earlier this year in a meeting with Citigroup Inc. banker Stephen Trauber because they had no concrete plans of how get there.\n“I assured them most companies today who have committed to net zero don’t have a plan on how to get there, but they’re working to get there,” Trauber said last month.\nExxon is routinely evaluating its climate pledges “to reflect the changing landscape,” it said in a statement at the time. The company was forced to replace three of its directors earlier this year after an activist campaign that claimed the oil giant was ill-equipped for the energy transition.\nChevron’s announcement is “positive,” but “these are small steps when what investors asked for is a giant leap,” said Andrew Logan of Ceres, a nonprofit coalition of companies and investors who manage more than $47 trillion.\n“What investors called for in casting their support for a shareholder proposal on Scope 3 targets this spring was a bold move to address product risk, one that was commensurate with the scale and scope of the climate challenge,” Logan said.\nChevron Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth last month emphasized what he sees as the importance of having an credible carbon strategy that balances the world’s need for reliable energy with the lowering of emissions. The current global shortage of natural gas, along with the run-up in oil and coal prices over the past few weeks, emphasizes how the world is still highly dependent upon fossil fuels.\nThe energy crunch in Asia and Europe show that “we must be very thoughtful in how we go about the transition,” Chevron’s Niemeyer said. “Prematurely cutting of one form of energy before the transition is really effected can be really problematic for us as a society.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CVX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864727692,"gmtCreate":1633151916750,"gmtModify":1633151919882,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578559022708914","idStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864727692","repostId":"2172396138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2956,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881427156,"gmtCreate":1631381688775,"gmtModify":1631891041681,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578559022708914","idStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"fud","listText":"fud","text":"fud","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881427156","repostId":"1105230157","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881424784,"gmtCreate":1631381635448,"gmtModify":1631891041695,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578559022708914","idStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881424784","repostId":"2166375610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}