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- 60d48e160d48e1
  ·2021-11-06
  It's coming back
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 60d48e160d48e1
  ·2021-07-15
  Long tesla
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 60d48e160d48e1
  ·2021-06-26
  PAYPAL too
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 60d48e160d48e1
  ·2021-06-22
  Long PSTH
  Vivendi Shareholders Approve Spinoff of Universal Music<blockquote>维旺迪股东批准分拆环球音乐</blockquote>
  Universal shares to be listed in Amsterdam in September. Vivendi SE shareholders approved the Frenc
  Vivendi Shareholders Approve Spinoff of Universal Music<blockquote>维旺迪股东批准分拆环球音乐</blockquote>
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- 60d48e160d48e1
  ·2021-06-17
  Time to accumulate
  Gold sector stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>黄金板块个股早盘下跌</blockquote>
  Gold sector stocks fell in morning trading，GOLD and RGLD shares tumbled nearly 3%,KGC shares dropped
  Gold sector stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>黄金板块个股早盘下跌</blockquote>
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- 60d48e160d48e1
  ·2021-06-15
  Not concerned
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,546 2
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- 60d48e160d48e1
  ·2021-06-14
  Yes Nvidia
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,221 1
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- 60d48e160d48e1
  ·2021-06-11
  Sold all my positions
  Chinese education stocks fell again<blockquote>中国教育股再次下跌</blockquote>
  (June 11) Gaotu fell over 7%, TAL Education Group was down about 4%, New Oriental Education fell abo
  Chinese education stocks fell again<blockquote>中国教育股再次下跌</blockquote>
  3,048 3
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- 60d48e160d48e1
  ·2021-06-09
  Not impressed with Grab
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,505 2
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- 60d48e160d48e1
  ·2021-06-08
  I'm not convinced
  Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>警告信号调整即将到来</blockquote>
  After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.
  Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>警告信号调整即将到来</blockquote>
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Vivendi SE shareholders approved the French media conglomerate’s plan to spin off its Universal Music Group unit, bringing the world’s largest music company a step closer to becoming its own public entity.</p><p><blockquote>环球股票将于9月在阿姆斯特丹上市。维旺迪股东批准了这家法国媒体集团剥离其环球音乐集团部门的计划，使这家全球最大的音乐公司距离成为自己的公共实体又近了一步。</blockquote></p><p> With more than 99% approval, shareholders backed the plan to distribute 60% of Universal’s shares to existing Vivendi shareholders and to list the company on the Euronext Amsterdam stock exchange. Vivendi executives said the listing would take place on Sept. 21.</p><p><blockquote>股东们以超过99%的支持率支持将环球60%的股份分配给维旺迪现有股东并在阿姆斯特丹泛欧交易所上市的计划。维旺迪高管表示，上市将于9月21日进行。</blockquote></p><p> Universal, home to stars including Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish, Queen and the Beatles, commands some 40% market share in the domestic recorded music business—30% globally—and operates the world’s second-largest music publishing company, which last year bought Bob Dylan’s entire songwriting catalog.</p><p><blockquote>环球影业拥有泰勒·斯威夫特(Taylor Swift)、比莉·埃利什(Billie Eilish)、皇后乐队(Queen)和披头士(Beatles)等明星，在国内录音音乐业务中占据约40%的市场份额（全球市场份额为30%），并经营着全球第二大音乐出版公司，该公司去年收购了鲍勃·迪伦(Bob Dylan)的整个歌曲创作目录。</blockquote></p><p> Over the weekend, Vivendi reached an agreement for a 10% investment in Universal by William Ackman’s Pershing Square Tontine Holdings Ltd., valuing the company at €35 billion, or about $40 billion. The Wall Street Journalpreviously reportedon the discussions. In an email to employees, Universal Chief Executive Lucian Grainge called the investment a “strong validation.”</p><p><blockquote>周末，维旺迪达成协议，威廉·阿克曼(William Ackman)的潘兴广场通廷控股有限公司(Pershing Square Tontine Holdings Ltd.)投资环球10%，对该公司的估值为350亿欧元，约合400亿美元。《华尔街日报》此前报道了这些讨论。在给员工的一封电子邮件中，环球首席执行官卢西恩·格兰奇(Lucian Grainge)称这项投资是“强有力的验证”。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns about 20% of Universal after the Chinese internet conglomeratedoubled its stakelast year in a deal that valued the business at about €30 billion.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有环球影业约20%的股份，这家中国互联网集团去年将其股份增加了一倍，交易对该业务的估值约为300亿欧元。</blockquote></p><p> “The fact that we now have, in addition to Vivendi, two committed investors—the consortium led by Tencent, as well as PSTH—is as powerful an endorsement as one could imagine from the investment and technology communities,” said Mr. Grainge in the note.</p><p><blockquote>格兰奇先生表示：“除了维旺迪之外，我们现在还有两个坚定的投资者——腾讯控股领导的财团以及PSTH——这是投资和技术界可以想象的最有力的支持。”笔记。</blockquote></p><p> Universal is set to join Warner Music Group Corp. in the public market. The third-largest recorded music company—which owns labels including Atlantic, Elektra and its flagship Warner Records, as well as Warner Chappell Music, the third-largest music publisher—listed on the Nasdaq last June. Shares surged in their debut and have climbed 15% over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>环球影业将在公开市场上加入华纳音乐集团公司。这家第三大唱片公司去年6月在纳斯达克上市，旗下拥有Atlantic、Elektra及其旗舰华纳唱片公司等唱片公司，以及第三大音乐出版商华纳沙佩尔音乐公司。股价首次亮相就飙升，过去一年上涨了15%。</blockquote></p><p> The resurgent music industry has piqued the interest of the investment community as it has been growing quickly thanks to the rise of streaming on services such as Spotify and Apple Music. After a 15-year decline amid rampant online piracy, the music business’s fortunes started to turn around in 2016, when thegrowth from streaming servicesbegan to outweigh dropping CD and digital download sales. Streaming now accounts for more than 80% of recorded-music revenue in the U.S. and more than 60% globally.</p><p><blockquote>复兴的音乐行业引起了投资界的兴趣，因为由于Spotify和苹果音乐等流媒体服务的兴起，音乐行业一直在快速增长。在因网络盗版猖獗而经历了15年的下滑之后，音乐行业的命运在2016年开始扭转，当时流媒体服务的增长开始超过CD和数字下载销量的下降。流媒体目前占美国录制音乐收入的80%以上，占全球60%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Vivendi Shareholders Approve Spinoff of Universal Music<blockquote>维旺迪股东批准分拆环球音乐</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVivendi Shareholders Approve Spinoff of Universal Music<blockquote>维旺迪股东批准分拆环球音乐</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 23:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Universal shares to be listed in Amsterdam in September.  Vivendi SE shareholders approved the French media conglomerate’s plan to spin off its Universal Music Group unit, bringing the world’s largest music company a step closer to becoming its own public entity.</p><p><blockquote>环球股票将于9月在阿姆斯特丹上市。维旺迪股东批准了这家法国媒体集团剥离其环球音乐集团部门的计划，使这家全球最大的音乐公司距离成为自己的公共实体又近了一步。</blockquote></p><p> With more than 99% approval, shareholders backed the plan to distribute 60% of Universal’s shares to existing Vivendi shareholders and to list the company on the Euronext Amsterdam stock exchange. Vivendi executives said the listing would take place on Sept. 21.</p><p><blockquote>股东们以超过99%的支持率支持将环球60%的股份分配给维旺迪现有股东并在阿姆斯特丹泛欧交易所上市的计划。维旺迪高管表示，上市将于9月21日进行。</blockquote></p><p> Universal, home to stars including Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish, Queen and the Beatles, commands some 40% market share in the domestic recorded music business—30% globally—and operates the world’s second-largest music publishing company, which last year bought Bob Dylan’s entire songwriting catalog.</p><p><blockquote>环球影业拥有泰勒·斯威夫特(Taylor Swift)、比莉·埃利什(Billie Eilish)、皇后乐队(Queen)和披头士(Beatles)等明星，在国内录音音乐业务中占据约40%的市场份额（全球市场份额为30%），并经营着全球第二大音乐出版公司，该公司去年收购了鲍勃·迪伦(Bob Dylan)的整个歌曲创作目录。</blockquote></p><p> Over the weekend, Vivendi reached an agreement for a 10% investment in Universal by William Ackman’s Pershing Square Tontine Holdings Ltd., valuing the company at €35 billion, or about $40 billion. The Wall Street Journalpreviously reportedon the discussions. In an email to employees, Universal Chief Executive Lucian Grainge called the investment a “strong validation.”</p><p><blockquote>周末，维旺迪达成协议，威廉·阿克曼(William Ackman)的潘兴广场通廷控股有限公司(Pershing Square Tontine Holdings Ltd.)投资环球10%，对该公司的估值为350亿欧元，约合400亿美元。《华尔街日报》此前报道了这些讨论。在给员工的一封电子邮件中，环球首席执行官卢西恩·格兰奇(Lucian Grainge)称这项投资是“强有力的验证”。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns about 20% of Universal after the Chinese internet conglomeratedoubled its stakelast year in a deal that valued the business at about €30 billion.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有环球影业约20%的股份，这家中国互联网集团去年将其股份增加了一倍，交易对该业务的估值约为300亿欧元。</blockquote></p><p> “The fact that we now have, in addition to Vivendi, two committed investors—the consortium led by Tencent, as well as PSTH—is as powerful an endorsement as one could imagine from the investment and technology communities,” said Mr. Grainge in the note.</p><p><blockquote>格兰奇先生表示：“除了维旺迪之外，我们现在还有两个坚定的投资者——腾讯控股领导的财团以及PSTH——这是投资和技术界可以想象的最有力的支持。”笔记。</blockquote></p><p> Universal is set to join Warner Music Group Corp. in the public market. The third-largest recorded music company—which owns labels including Atlantic, Elektra and its flagship Warner Records, as well as Warner Chappell Music, the third-largest music publisher—listed on the Nasdaq last June. Shares surged in their debut and have climbed 15% over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>环球影业将在公开市场上加入华纳音乐集团公司。这家第三大唱片公司去年6月在纳斯达克上市，旗下拥有Atlantic、Elektra及其旗舰华纳唱片公司等唱片公司，以及第三大音乐出版商华纳沙佩尔音乐公司。股价首次亮相就飙升，过去一年上涨了15%。</blockquote></p><p> The resurgent music industry has piqued the interest of the investment community as it has been growing quickly thanks to the rise of streaming on services such as Spotify and Apple Music. After a 15-year decline amid rampant online piracy, the music business’s fortunes started to turn around in 2016, when thegrowth from streaming servicesbegan to outweigh dropping CD and digital download sales. Streaming now accounts for more than 80% of recorded-music revenue in the U.S. and more than 60% globally.</p><p><blockquote>复兴的音乐行业引起了投资界的兴趣，因为由于Spotify和苹果音乐等流媒体服务的兴起，音乐行业一直在快速增长。在因网络盗版猖獗而经历了15年的下滑之后，音乐行业的命运在2016年开始扭转，当时流媒体服务的增长开始超过CD和数字下载销量的下降。流媒体目前占美国录制音乐收入的80%以上，占全球60%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/vivendi-shareholders-approve-spinoff-of-universal-music-11624357650\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/vivendi-shareholders-approve-spinoff-of-universal-music-11624357650","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185822687","content_text":"Universal shares to be listed in Amsterdam in September.\n\nVivendi SE shareholders approved the French media conglomerate’s plan to spin off its Universal Music Group unit, bringing the world’s largest music company a step closer to becoming its own public entity.\nWith more than 99% approval, shareholders backed the plan to distribute 60% of Universal’s shares to existing Vivendi shareholders and to list the company on the Euronext Amsterdam stock exchange. Vivendi executives said the listing would take place on Sept. 21.\nUniversal, home to stars including Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish, Queen and the Beatles, commands some 40% market share in the domestic recorded music business—30% globally—and operates the world’s second-largest music publishing company, which last year bought Bob Dylan’s entire songwriting catalog.\nOver the weekend, Vivendi reached an agreement for a 10% investment in Universal by William Ackman’s Pershing Square Tontine Holdings Ltd., valuing the company at €35 billion, or about $40 billion. The Wall Street Journalpreviously reportedon the discussions. In an email to employees, Universal Chief Executive Lucian Grainge called the investment a “strong validation.”\nTencent Holdings Ltd. owns about 20% of Universal after the Chinese internet conglomeratedoubled its stakelast year in a deal that valued the business at about €30 billion.\n“The fact that we now have, in addition to Vivendi, two committed investors—the consortium led by Tencent, as well as PSTH—is as powerful an endorsement as one could imagine from the investment and technology communities,” said Mr. Grainge in the note.\nUniversal is set to join Warner Music Group Corp. in the public market. The third-largest recorded music company—which owns labels including Atlantic, Elektra and its flagship Warner Records, as well as Warner Chappell Music, the third-largest music publisher—listed on the Nasdaq last June. Shares surged in their debut and have climbed 15% over the past year.\nThe resurgent music industry has piqued the interest of the investment community as it has been growing quickly thanks to the rise of streaming on services such as Spotify and Apple Music. After a 15-year decline amid rampant online piracy, the music business’s fortunes started to turn around in 2016, when thegrowth from streaming servicesbegan to outweigh dropping CD and digital download sales. Streaming now accounts for more than 80% of recorded-music revenue in the U.S. and more than 60% globally.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161769431,"gmtCreate":1623940880423,"gmtModify":1631885484275,"author":{"id":"3577963183517164","authorId":"3577963183517164","name":"60d48e1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577963183517164","authorIdStr":"3577963183517164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to accumulate","listText":"Time to accumulate","text":"Time to accumulate","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161769431","repostId":"1198660084","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198660084","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623937153,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198660084?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 21:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Gold sector stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>黄金板块个股早盘下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198660084","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Gold sector stocks fell in morning trading，GOLD and RGLD shares tumbled nearly 3%,KGC shares dropped","content":"<p>Gold&nbsp;sector&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading，GOLD&nbsp;and&nbsp;RGLD&nbsp;shares&nbsp;tumbled&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;3%,KGC&nbsp;shares&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;4%.</p><p><blockquote>黄金板块股票早盘下跌，Gold和RGLD股价暴跌近3%，KGC股价下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d4ade715c0085abc49f388d1a668f1e\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"578\">Gold slumped below $1,800 an ounce as the Federal Reserve sped up its expected pace of policy tightening amid optimism about the labor market and heightened concerns over inflation.</p><p><blockquote>由于对劳动力市场的乐观情绪和对通胀的担忧加剧，美联储加快了预期的政策收紧步伐，金价跌至1800美元/盎司以下。</blockquote></p><p> The metal slipped to the lowest in six weeks on Thursday as the dollar continued to strengthen, the day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would begin a discussion about scaling back bond purchases. It’s the first major hawkish turn from the central bank whose deluge of stimulus has been critical to bullion’s strong performance since the start of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>周四，随着美元继续走强，金价跌至六周来的最低水平，此前一天，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储将开始讨论缩减债券购买规模。这是央行首次重大鹰派转向，自疫情爆发以来，央行的大量刺激措施对金条的强劲表现至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank also released forecasts that show it anticipates two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought -- which helped boost the dollar and U.S. bond yields, hurting gold. Bullion, which declined the most in five months on Wednesday, broke through a number of key technical support levels, including falling below its 100-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>央行还发布的预测显示，预计到2023年底将加息两次——比许多人想象的要早——这有助于提振美元和美国债券收益率，损害黄金。周三创下五个月来最大跌幅的金价突破了多个关键技术支撑位，包括跌破100日移动均线。</blockquote></p><p> “We have a negative outlook, expecting gold to fall to $1,600 an ounce over the next six to 12 months,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG. “At some point the Fed will not talk about taper but also implement it.”</p><p><blockquote>瑞银集团分析师Giovanni Staunovo表示：“我们对前景持负面看法，预计未来6至12个月金价将跌至每盎司1,600美元。”“在某些时候，美联储不会谈论taper，但也会实施它。”</blockquote></p><p> Spot gold declined 1.7% to $1,780.97 an ounce as of 2:07 p.m. in London, after earlier dropping to $1,776.08, the lowest intraday level since May 5. Silver, platinum and palladium also declined. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.5% after rising 0.9% on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>截至下午2:07，现货黄金下跌1.7%，至每盎司1,780.97美元。伦敦股市早些时候跌至1,776.08美元，为5月5日以来的最低盘中水平。白银、铂金和钯金也出现下滑。彭博美元现货指数继周三上涨0.9%后上涨0.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold sector stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>黄金板块个股早盘下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold sector stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>黄金板块个股早盘下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 21:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Gold&nbsp;sector&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading，GOLD&nbsp;and&nbsp;RGLD&nbsp;shares&nbsp;tumbled&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;3%,KGC&nbsp;shares&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;4%.</p><p><blockquote>黄金板块股票早盘下跌，Gold和RGLD股价暴跌近3%，KGC股价下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d4ade715c0085abc49f388d1a668f1e\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"578\">Gold slumped below $1,800 an ounce as the Federal Reserve sped up its expected pace of policy tightening amid optimism about the labor market and heightened concerns over inflation.</p><p><blockquote>由于对劳动力市场的乐观情绪和对通胀的担忧加剧，美联储加快了预期的政策收紧步伐，金价跌至1800美元/盎司以下。</blockquote></p><p> The metal slipped to the lowest in six weeks on Thursday as the dollar continued to strengthen, the day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would begin a discussion about scaling back bond purchases. It’s the first major hawkish turn from the central bank whose deluge of stimulus has been critical to bullion’s strong performance since the start of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>周四，随着美元继续走强，金价跌至六周来的最低水平，此前一天，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储将开始讨论缩减债券购买规模。这是央行首次重大鹰派转向，自疫情爆发以来，央行的大量刺激措施对金条的强劲表现至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank also released forecasts that show it anticipates two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought -- which helped boost the dollar and U.S. bond yields, hurting gold. Bullion, which declined the most in five months on Wednesday, broke through a number of key technical support levels, including falling below its 100-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>央行还发布的预测显示，预计到2023年底将加息两次——比许多人想象的要早——这有助于提振美元和美国债券收益率，损害黄金。周三创下五个月来最大跌幅的金价突破了多个关键技术支撑位，包括跌破100日移动均线。</blockquote></p><p> “We have a negative outlook, expecting gold to fall to $1,600 an ounce over the next six to 12 months,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG. “At some point the Fed will not talk about taper but also implement it.”</p><p><blockquote>瑞银集团分析师Giovanni Staunovo表示：“我们对前景持负面看法，预计未来6至12个月金价将跌至每盎司1,600美元。”“在某些时候，美联储不会谈论taper，但也会实施它。”</blockquote></p><p> Spot gold declined 1.7% to $1,780.97 an ounce as of 2:07 p.m. in London, after earlier dropping to $1,776.08, the lowest intraday level since May 5. Silver, platinum and palladium also declined. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.5% after rising 0.9% on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>截至下午2:07，现货黄金下跌1.7%，至每盎司1,780.97美元。伦敦股市早些时候跌至1,776.08美元，为5月5日以来的最低盘中水平。白银、铂金和钯金也出现下滑。彭博美元现货指数继周三上涨0.9%后上涨0.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KGC":"金罗斯黄金","RGLD":"皇家黄金","GOLD":"Gold.com"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198660084","content_text":"Gold sector stocks fell in morning trading，GOLD and RGLD shares tumbled nearly 3%,KGC shares dropped more than 4%.\nGold slumped below $1,800 an ounce as the Federal Reserve sped up its expected pace of policy tightening amid optimism about the labor market and heightened concerns over inflation.\nThe metal slipped to the lowest in six weeks on Thursday as the dollar continued to strengthen, the day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would begin a discussion about scaling back bond purchases. It’s the first major hawkish turn from the central bank whose deluge of stimulus has been critical to bullion’s strong performance since the start of the pandemic.\nThe central bank also released forecasts that show it anticipates two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought -- which helped boost the dollar and U.S. bond yields, hurting gold. Bullion, which declined the most in five months on Wednesday, broke through a number of key technical support levels, including falling below its 100-day moving average.\n“We have a negative outlook, expecting gold to fall to $1,600 an ounce over the next six to 12 months,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG. “At some point the Fed will not talk about taper but also implement it.”\nSpot gold declined 1.7% to $1,780.97 an ounce as of 2:07 p.m. in London, after earlier dropping to $1,776.08, the lowest intraday level since May 5. Silver, platinum and palladium also declined. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.5% after rising 0.9% on Wednesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KGC":0.9,"RGLD":0.9,"GOLD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160961033,"gmtCreate":1623769604622,"gmtModify":1631889703818,"author":{"id":"3577963183517164","authorId":"3577963183517164","name":"60d48e1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577963183517164","authorIdStr":"3577963183517164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not concerned","listText":"Not concerned","text":"Not concerned","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160961033","repostId":"1163235288","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184929870,"gmtCreate":1623681414390,"gmtModify":1631889703831,"author":{"id":"3577963183517164","authorId":"3577963183517164","name":"60d48e1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577963183517164","authorIdStr":"3577963183517164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes Nvidia","listText":"Yes Nvidia","text":"Yes Nvidia","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184929870","repostId":"2143784913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188898139,"gmtCreate":1623426950621,"gmtModify":1631889703845,"author":{"id":"3577963183517164","authorId":"3577963183517164","name":"60d48e1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577963183517164","authorIdStr":"3577963183517164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sold all my positions","listText":"Sold all my positions","text":"Sold all my positions","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188898139","repostId":"1174648150","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174648150","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623421129,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174648150?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese education stocks fell again<blockquote>中国教育股再次下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174648150","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 11) Gaotu fell over 7%, TAL Education Group was down about 4%, New Oriental Education fell abo","content":"<p>(June 11)&nbsp;Gaotu fell over 7%, TAL Education Group was down about 4%, New Oriental Education fell about 2%.</p><p><blockquote>（6月11日）高途跌超7%，好未来教育集团跌约4%，新东方教育跌约2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19995de30a445296dd85511c627cc738\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"242\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese education stocks fell again<blockquote>中国教育股再次下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese education stocks fell again<blockquote>中国教育股再次下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-11 22:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 11)&nbsp;Gaotu fell over 7%, TAL Education Group was down about 4%, New Oriental Education fell about 2%.</p><p><blockquote>（6月11日）高途跌超7%，好未来教育集团跌约4%，新东方教育跌约2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19995de30a445296dd85511c627cc738\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"242\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174648150","content_text":"(June 11) Gaotu fell over 7%, TAL Education Group was down about 4%, New Oriental Education fell about 2%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189148240,"gmtCreate":1623249324780,"gmtModify":1631889703857,"author":{"id":"3577963183517164","authorId":"3577963183517164","name":"60d48e1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577963183517164","authorIdStr":"3577963183517164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not impressed with Grab","listText":"Not impressed with Grab","text":"Not impressed with Grab","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189148240","repostId":"2142321626","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117770304,"gmtCreate":1623162470508,"gmtModify":1631889703874,"author":{"id":"3577963183517164","authorId":"3577963183517164","name":"60d48e1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577963183517164","authorIdStr":"3577963183517164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I'm not convinced","listText":"I'm not convinced","text":"I'm not convinced","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117770304","repostId":"1108456666","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108456666","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623161829,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108456666?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-08 22:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>警告信号调整即将到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108456666","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.","content":"<p>After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.</p><p><blockquote>在从近期低点大幅反弹后，有多个警告信号表明调整即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last few weeks, we&nbsp;<b><i>discussed the rising risk</i></b>&nbsp;of a correction between 5-10%, most likely this summer. Such drawdowns are historically very common within any given year of an ongoing bull market. As&nbsp;<i>Sentiment Trader</i>&nbsp;recently noted, we are now in one of the more extended periods without such an occurrence.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几周里，我们<b><i>讨论不断上升的风险</i></b>调整幅度在5-10%之间，最有可能是在今年夏天。从历史上看，在持续牛市的任何一年中，这种回撤都是非常常见的。作为<i>情绪交易者</i>正如最近指出的，我们现在正处于没有这种情况发生的较长时期之一。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eced82eef65e87252e40ed177a747be9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Of course, as is always the case, amid a bullish advance, it is easy to become complacent as prices rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，和往常一样，在看涨的过程中，随着价格上涨，人们很容易变得自满。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Before we go any further, it is essential to clarify we are discussing only the potential for a short-term correction.</b>&nbsp;As is often the case, some tend to extrapolate such to mean I am saying a&nbsp;<i>“crash”</i>&nbsp;is coming, and you should be all in cash. Such an extreme move is ill-advised without a significant weight of evidence.</p><p><blockquote><b>在我们进一步讨论之前，有必要澄清我们只是在讨论短期调整的可能性。</b>通常情况下，有些人倾向于推断出我在说一个<i>“撞车”</i>来了，你应该全是现金。在没有大量证据的情况下，这种极端的举动是不明智的。</blockquote></p><p> However, there is reason to be cautious in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>然而，短期内有理由保持谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Suppressed Volatility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>波动性被抑制</b></blockquote></p><p> As I stated, during a&nbsp;<i>“bullish advance,”</i>investors become incredibly complacent.&nbsp;<b>That</b><b><i>“complacency”</i></b><b>&nbsp;leads to excessive speculative risk-taking.We see clear evidence of that activity in various</b><b><i>“risk-on”</i></b><b>&nbsp;asset classes from Cryptocurrencies, to SPAC’s, to</b><b><i>“Meme Stocks.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我所说，在<i>“看涨推进，”</i>投资者变得异常自满。<b>那个</b><b><i>“自满”</i></b><b>导致过度投机冒险。我们在各种活动中看到了明显证据</b><b><i>“冒险”</i></b><b>资产类别从加密货币到SPAC，再到</b><b><i>“模因股票。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> A measure of speculative excess is the Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below is from my colleague Jim Colquitt of&nbsp;<i>Armor ETF’s.</i></p><p><blockquote>衡量投机过度的指标是波动率指数（VIX）。下面的图表来自我的同事Jim Colquitt<i>装甲ETF的。</i></blockquote></p><p> The top pane is the&nbsp;15-day moving average of VIX, which is on an inverted scale. The bottom pane is the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p><blockquote>顶部窗格是VIX的15天移动平均线，呈倒置刻度。底部窗格是标普500指数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245e68edb15dbfa4f8f146a789b89809\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The market may have one last push higher over the next several weeks. Such will take the VIX even lower and complete the VIX wedge pattern.</i>  <i><b>That pattern has been evident in the last three 10% or greater corrections.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;By this measure, the correction should begin somewhere around July 21st&nbsp;– August 10th.” – Jim Colquitt</i>  As they say,&nbsp;<i>“timing is everything.”</i>While a July-August time frame is entirely possible, a June-July correction is just as likely. What is essential, as we will discuss momentarily, is understanding that risk is prevalent.</p><p><blockquote><i>“未来几周，市场可能会最后一次走高。这将使VIX进一步走低，并完成VIX楔形形态。</i><i><b>这种模式在过去三次10%或更大的修正中很明显。</b></i><i>按照这个标准，调整应该在7月21日至8月10日左右开始。”-吉姆·科尔奎特</i>正如他们所说，<i>“时机就是一切。”</i>虽然7月至8月的时间框架是完全可能的，但6月至7月的调整也是可能的。正如我们稍后将讨论的，最重要的是理解风险是普遍的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Exuberance Stretched Again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场景气度再度舒展</b></blockquote></p><p> It isn’t just complacency that is suggestive of a short-term market correction. There are numerous others as well.</p><p><blockquote>暗示短期市场调整的不仅仅是自满情绪。还有许多其他的。</blockquote></p><p> As my friend Daniel Lacalle recently posted,&nbsp;Morgan Stanley‘s market timing indicator is at levels that have typically coincided with market downturns. Just for reference, the current reading is the most&nbsp;<i>“bearish”</i>&nbsp;on record.</p><p><blockquote>正如我的朋友丹尼尔·拉卡勒(Daniel Lacalle)最近发布的那样，摩根士丹利的市场时机指标处于通常与市场低迷同时发生的水平。仅供参考，当前读数最<i>“看跌”</i>记录在案。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c918064930caffdab80b05f255085f9\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"459\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, a host of other indicators posted by&nbsp;<b><i>@Not_Jim_Cramer</i></b>also suggests there are reasons for concern about a correction.</p><p><blockquote>此外，发布的许多其他指标<b><i>@Not_Jim_Cramer</i></b>也表明有理由担心调整。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12bad2caf91007cd9b37c0ef04e90e29\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"547\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflationary Warning</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀警告</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, this note from Tom Bowley caught my eye on Saturday.</p><p><blockquote>最后，汤姆·鲍利的这封信在周六引起了我的注意。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The S&amp;P 500 reached a high on Friday of 4233.45, narrowly eclipsing the all-time high close of 4232.60 from May 7th.</i>  <i><b>Unfortunately for the bulls, selling in the final few minutes ruined the breakout attempt. This false breakout, ever so slight, could be quite ominous for next week and there’s one MAJOR reason why. Inflation data.</b></i>  <i>That May 7th all-time high came just days before the shocking April CPI data was released on May 12th. Now here we are back at the high again.</i>  <i><b>As the late Yogi Berra might say, “it’s deja vu all over again!” I don’t believe inflation to be a problem, but just the possibility of it could trigger scary headlines and encourage selling in the week ahead.”</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;–&nbsp;Tom Bowley, Stockcharts</i>  The chart below shows the differential between the annual rates of change of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI.)&nbsp;<b>It should not be surprising that when PPI surges well ahead of CPI, equity markets tend to run into problems.Such is because this shows producers are unable to pass the inflation along to their customers.</b>&nbsp;Consequently, this leads to reduced earnings and a repricing of risk assets.</p><p><blockquote><i>“标普500周五触及4233.45点的高点，勉强超过5月7日以来的历史收盘高点4232.60点。</i><i><b>不幸的是，对于多头来说，最后几分钟的抛售破坏了突破尝试。这种虚假的突破，无论多么轻微，都可能是下周的不祥之兆，这有一个主要原因。通胀数据。</b></i><i>5月7日的历史新高是在5月12日令人震惊的4月份CPI数据发布的前几天出现的。现在我们又回到了高潮。</i><i><b>正如已故的约吉·贝拉可能会说的那样，“似曾相识又来了！”我不认为通货膨胀是一个问题，但仅仅是通货膨胀的可能性就可能引发可怕的头条新闻并鼓励未来一周的抛售。”</b></i><i>——汤姆·鲍利，股票图表</i>下图显示了生产者价格指数(PPI)和消费者价格指数(CPI)的年变化率之间的差异。<b>当PPI飙升远远超过CPI时，股市往往会遇到问题，这并不奇怪。这是因为这表明生产商无法将通货膨胀转嫁给他们的客户。</b>因此，这导致收益减少和风险资产的重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf24f2c1d3200f6fdb7a14a83d419b5\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"519\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tom goes on to state inflation will not be a problem longer-term correctly. However, in the near term, the surge in inflation will weigh on outlooks, creating corrective actions.</p><p><blockquote>汤姆继续指出，从长远来看，通货膨胀不会是一个问题。然而，在短期内，通胀飙升将给前景带来压力，从而引发纠正行动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Problem With Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术问题</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> I want to reiterate a point from the most recent&nbsp;<b><i>newsletter:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>我想重申最近的一点<b><i>时事通讯：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>The biggest problem is that technical indicators do not distinguish between a consolidation, a correction, or an outright bear market.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;As such, if you ignore the signals as they occur, by the time you realize it’s a deep correction, it is too late to do much about it.</i>  <i><b>Therefore, we must treat each signal with the same respect and adjust risk accordingly. The opportunity costs of doing so are minimal.</b></i>  If we reduce risk and the market continues to rise, we can increase risk exposures. Yes, we sacrifice some short-term performance. However, if we reduce risk and the market declines sharply, we not only protect capital during the decline but have the liquidity to deploy at lower price levels.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>最大的问题是技术指标无法区分盘整、调整或彻底的熊市。</b></i><i>因此，如果你在信号出现时忽视它们，当你意识到这是一次深度修正时，就太晚了。</i><i><b>因此，我们必须以同样的尊重对待每个信号，并相应地调整风险。这样做的机会成本很小。</b></i>如果我们降低风险，市场继续上涨，我们可以增加风险敞口。是的，我们牺牲了一些短期业绩。然而，如果我们降低风险并且市场大幅下跌，我们不仅可以在下跌期间保护资本，还可以在较低的价格水平上部署流动性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Such is the problem with</b><b><i>“buy and hold”</i></b><b>&nbsp;strategies.</b>&nbsp;Yes, you will perform in line with the market, but given that you didn’t&nbsp;<i>“sell high,”</i>&nbsp;there is no cash available with which to&nbsp;<i>“buy low”</i>&nbsp;in the future.</p><p><blockquote><b>这就是问题所在</b><b><i>“买入并持有”</i></b><b>策略。</b>是的，你的表现会与市场一致，但鉴于你没有<i>“高抛。”</i>并无现金可用于支付<i>“低吸”</i>在未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>With that stated, here is the most significant problem of technical analysis.</b>All of the warnings noted above suggest there is a risk of a correction in the near term.&nbsp;<b>However, technical analysis does not differentiate between a 5% pullback, a 10% correction, or a</b><b><i>“bear market.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b>综上所述，这是技术分析最重要的问题。</b>上述所有警告都表明近期存在回调风险。<b>然而，技术分析并不区分5%的回调、10%的修正或</b><b><i>“熊市。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>You will only find that out once it begins, and such is why risk management is essential.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>只有当它开始时，你才会发现，这就是为什么风险管理是必不可少的。</b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Risk management is much like driving a car. If there is a blind spot ahead, and you don’t tap on the brakes to control your speed, you are unlikely to avoid the hazard ahead.</i>  <b><i>Yes, tapping on the brakes to provide more control over the car will slow your arrival time to your destination. However, being late is a much better option than not getting there at all.”</i></b>  <b>Just A Warning</b></p><p><blockquote><i>“风险管理很像开车，如果前方有盲区，而你不踩刹车控制车速，你就不太可能避开前方的危险。</i><b><i>是的，踩刹车以更好地控制汽车会减慢您到达目的地的时间。然而，迟到比根本不去那里要好得多。”</i></b><b>只是个警告</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Again, I am not implying, suggesting, or stating that such signals mean going 100% to cash.</b>&nbsp;What I am suggesting is that when&nbsp;<i>“sell signals”</i>&nbsp;are given, that is the time when individuals should perform some essential portfolio risk management such as:</p><p><blockquote><b>再说一次，我并不是暗示、建议或陈述这样的信号意味着100%兑现。</b>我的建议是当<i>“卖出信号”</i>给出，这是个人应该执行一些基本的投资组合风险管理的时间，例如：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Trim back winning positions to original portfolio weights:</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Let Winners Run</b></i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>将获胜头寸削减至原始投资组合权重：</i><i><b>投资法则：让赢家奔跑</b></i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Sell positions that simply are not working (if the position was not working in a rising market, it likely won’t in a declining market.)</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Cut Losers Short</b></i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>卖出根本不起作用的头寸（如果该头寸在上涨的市场中不起作用，那么在下跌的市场中也可能不起作用。）</i><i><b>投资法则：做空输家</b></i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Hold the cash raised from these activities until the next buying opportunity occurs.</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Buy Low</b></i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>持有从这些活动中筹集的现金，直到下一次购买机会出现。</i><i><b>投资法则：低吸</b></i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> As stated, there is minimal risk in&nbsp;<i>“risk management.”</i>&nbsp;In the long term, the results of avoiding periods of severe capital loss will outweigh missed short-term gains.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，风险最小<i>“风险管理。”</i>从长远来看，避免严重资本损失时期的结果将超过错过的短期收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>While I agree you can not</b><b><i>“time the markets,”you can “manage risk” to improve your long-term outcomes.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b>虽然我同意你不能</b><b><i>“把握市场时机”，你可以“管理风险”来改善你的长期结果。</i></b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>警告信号调整即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>警告信号调整即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-08 22:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.</p><p><blockquote>在从近期低点大幅反弹后，有多个警告信号表明调整即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last few weeks, we&nbsp;<b><i>discussed the rising risk</i></b>&nbsp;of a correction between 5-10%, most likely this summer. Such drawdowns are historically very common within any given year of an ongoing bull market. As&nbsp;<i>Sentiment Trader</i>&nbsp;recently noted, we are now in one of the more extended periods without such an occurrence.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几周里，我们<b><i>讨论不断上升的风险</i></b>调整幅度在5-10%之间，最有可能是在今年夏天。从历史上看，在持续牛市的任何一年中，这种回撤都是非常常见的。作为<i>情绪交易者</i>正如最近指出的，我们现在正处于没有这种情况发生的较长时期之一。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eced82eef65e87252e40ed177a747be9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Of course, as is always the case, amid a bullish advance, it is easy to become complacent as prices rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，和往常一样，在看涨的过程中，随着价格上涨，人们很容易变得自满。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Before we go any further, it is essential to clarify we are discussing only the potential for a short-term correction.</b>&nbsp;As is often the case, some tend to extrapolate such to mean I am saying a&nbsp;<i>“crash”</i>&nbsp;is coming, and you should be all in cash. Such an extreme move is ill-advised without a significant weight of evidence.</p><p><blockquote><b>在我们进一步讨论之前，有必要澄清我们只是在讨论短期调整的可能性。</b>通常情况下，有些人倾向于推断出我在说一个<i>“撞车”</i>来了，你应该全是现金。在没有大量证据的情况下，这种极端的举动是不明智的。</blockquote></p><p> However, there is reason to be cautious in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>然而，短期内有理由保持谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Suppressed Volatility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>波动性被抑制</b></blockquote></p><p> As I stated, during a&nbsp;<i>“bullish advance,”</i>investors become incredibly complacent.&nbsp;<b>That</b><b><i>“complacency”</i></b><b>&nbsp;leads to excessive speculative risk-taking.We see clear evidence of that activity in various</b><b><i>“risk-on”</i></b><b>&nbsp;asset classes from Cryptocurrencies, to SPAC’s, to</b><b><i>“Meme Stocks.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我所说，在<i>“看涨推进，”</i>投资者变得异常自满。<b>那个</b><b><i>“自满”</i></b><b>导致过度投机冒险。我们在各种活动中看到了明显证据</b><b><i>“冒险”</i></b><b>资产类别从加密货币到SPAC，再到</b><b><i>“模因股票。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> A measure of speculative excess is the Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below is from my colleague Jim Colquitt of&nbsp;<i>Armor ETF’s.</i></p><p><blockquote>衡量投机过度的指标是波动率指数（VIX）。下面的图表来自我的同事Jim Colquitt<i>装甲ETF的。</i></blockquote></p><p> The top pane is the&nbsp;15-day moving average of VIX, which is on an inverted scale. The bottom pane is the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p><blockquote>顶部窗格是VIX的15天移动平均线，呈倒置刻度。底部窗格是标普500指数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245e68edb15dbfa4f8f146a789b89809\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The market may have one last push higher over the next several weeks. Such will take the VIX even lower and complete the VIX wedge pattern.</i>  <i><b>That pattern has been evident in the last three 10% or greater corrections.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;By this measure, the correction should begin somewhere around July 21st&nbsp;– August 10th.” – Jim Colquitt</i>  As they say,&nbsp;<i>“timing is everything.”</i>While a July-August time frame is entirely possible, a June-July correction is just as likely. What is essential, as we will discuss momentarily, is understanding that risk is prevalent.</p><p><blockquote><i>“未来几周，市场可能会最后一次走高。这将使VIX进一步走低，并完成VIX楔形形态。</i><i><b>这种模式在过去三次10%或更大的修正中很明显。</b></i><i>按照这个标准，调整应该在7月21日至8月10日左右开始。”-吉姆·科尔奎特</i>正如他们所说，<i>“时机就是一切。”</i>虽然7月至8月的时间框架是完全可能的，但6月至7月的调整也是可能的。正如我们稍后将讨论的，最重要的是理解风险是普遍的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Exuberance Stretched Again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场景气度再度舒展</b></blockquote></p><p> It isn’t just complacency that is suggestive of a short-term market correction. There are numerous others as well.</p><p><blockquote>暗示短期市场调整的不仅仅是自满情绪。还有许多其他的。</blockquote></p><p> As my friend Daniel Lacalle recently posted,&nbsp;Morgan Stanley‘s market timing indicator is at levels that have typically coincided with market downturns. Just for reference, the current reading is the most&nbsp;<i>“bearish”</i>&nbsp;on record.</p><p><blockquote>正如我的朋友丹尼尔·拉卡勒(Daniel Lacalle)最近发布的那样，摩根士丹利的市场时机指标处于通常与市场低迷同时发生的水平。仅供参考，当前读数最<i>“看跌”</i>记录在案。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c918064930caffdab80b05f255085f9\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"459\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, a host of other indicators posted by&nbsp;<b><i>@Not_Jim_Cramer</i></b>also suggests there are reasons for concern about a correction.</p><p><blockquote>此外，发布的许多其他指标<b><i>@Not_Jim_Cramer</i></b>也表明有理由担心调整。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12bad2caf91007cd9b37c0ef04e90e29\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"547\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflationary Warning</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀警告</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, this note from Tom Bowley caught my eye on Saturday.</p><p><blockquote>最后，汤姆·鲍利的这封信在周六引起了我的注意。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The S&amp;P 500 reached a high on Friday of 4233.45, narrowly eclipsing the all-time high close of 4232.60 from May 7th.</i>  <i><b>Unfortunately for the bulls, selling in the final few minutes ruined the breakout attempt. This false breakout, ever so slight, could be quite ominous for next week and there’s one MAJOR reason why. Inflation data.</b></i>  <i>That May 7th all-time high came just days before the shocking April CPI data was released on May 12th. Now here we are back at the high again.</i>  <i><b>As the late Yogi Berra might say, “it’s deja vu all over again!” I don’t believe inflation to be a problem, but just the possibility of it could trigger scary headlines and encourage selling in the week ahead.”</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;–&nbsp;Tom Bowley, Stockcharts</i>  The chart below shows the differential between the annual rates of change of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI.)&nbsp;<b>It should not be surprising that when PPI surges well ahead of CPI, equity markets tend to run into problems.Such is because this shows producers are unable to pass the inflation along to their customers.</b>&nbsp;Consequently, this leads to reduced earnings and a repricing of risk assets.</p><p><blockquote><i>“标普500周五触及4233.45点的高点，勉强超过5月7日以来的历史收盘高点4232.60点。</i><i><b>不幸的是，对于多头来说，最后几分钟的抛售破坏了突破尝试。这种虚假的突破，无论多么轻微，都可能是下周的不祥之兆，这有一个主要原因。通胀数据。</b></i><i>5月7日的历史新高是在5月12日令人震惊的4月份CPI数据发布的前几天出现的。现在我们又回到了高潮。</i><i><b>正如已故的约吉·贝拉可能会说的那样，“似曾相识又来了！”我不认为通货膨胀是一个问题，但仅仅是通货膨胀的可能性就可能引发可怕的头条新闻并鼓励未来一周的抛售。”</b></i><i>——汤姆·鲍利，股票图表</i>下图显示了生产者价格指数(PPI)和消费者价格指数(CPI)的年变化率之间的差异。<b>当PPI飙升远远超过CPI时，股市往往会遇到问题，这并不奇怪。这是因为这表明生产商无法将通货膨胀转嫁给他们的客户。</b>因此，这导致收益减少和风险资产的重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf24f2c1d3200f6fdb7a14a83d419b5\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"519\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tom goes on to state inflation will not be a problem longer-term correctly. However, in the near term, the surge in inflation will weigh on outlooks, creating corrective actions.</p><p><blockquote>汤姆继续指出，从长远来看，通货膨胀不会是一个问题。然而，在短期内，通胀飙升将给前景带来压力，从而引发纠正行动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Problem With Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术问题</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> I want to reiterate a point from the most recent&nbsp;<b><i>newsletter:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>我想重申最近的一点<b><i>时事通讯：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>The biggest problem is that technical indicators do not distinguish between a consolidation, a correction, or an outright bear market.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;As such, if you ignore the signals as they occur, by the time you realize it’s a deep correction, it is too late to do much about it.</i>  <i><b>Therefore, we must treat each signal with the same respect and adjust risk accordingly. The opportunity costs of doing so are minimal.</b></i>  If we reduce risk and the market continues to rise, we can increase risk exposures. Yes, we sacrifice some short-term performance. However, if we reduce risk and the market declines sharply, we not only protect capital during the decline but have the liquidity to deploy at lower price levels.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>最大的问题是技术指标无法区分盘整、调整或彻底的熊市。</b></i><i>因此，如果你在信号出现时忽视它们，当你意识到这是一次深度修正时，就太晚了。</i><i><b>因此，我们必须以同样的尊重对待每个信号，并相应地调整风险。这样做的机会成本很小。</b></i>如果我们降低风险，市场继续上涨，我们可以增加风险敞口。是的，我们牺牲了一些短期业绩。然而，如果我们降低风险并且市场大幅下跌，我们不仅可以在下跌期间保护资本，还可以在较低的价格水平上部署流动性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Such is the problem with</b><b><i>“buy and hold”</i></b><b>&nbsp;strategies.</b>&nbsp;Yes, you will perform in line with the market, but given that you didn’t&nbsp;<i>“sell high,”</i>&nbsp;there is no cash available with which to&nbsp;<i>“buy low”</i>&nbsp;in the future.</p><p><blockquote><b>这就是问题所在</b><b><i>“买入并持有”</i></b><b>策略。</b>是的，你的表现会与市场一致，但鉴于你没有<i>“高抛。”</i>并无现金可用于支付<i>“低吸”</i>在未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>With that stated, here is the most significant problem of technical analysis.</b>All of the warnings noted above suggest there is a risk of a correction in the near term.&nbsp;<b>However, technical analysis does not differentiate between a 5% pullback, a 10% correction, or a</b><b><i>“bear market.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b>综上所述，这是技术分析最重要的问题。</b>上述所有警告都表明近期存在回调风险。<b>然而，技术分析并不区分5%的回调、10%的修正或</b><b><i>“熊市。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>You will only find that out once it begins, and such is why risk management is essential.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>只有当它开始时，你才会发现，这就是为什么风险管理是必不可少的。</b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Risk management is much like driving a car. If there is a blind spot ahead, and you don’t tap on the brakes to control your speed, you are unlikely to avoid the hazard ahead.</i>  <b><i>Yes, tapping on the brakes to provide more control over the car will slow your arrival time to your destination. However, being late is a much better option than not getting there at all.”</i></b>  <b>Just A Warning</b></p><p><blockquote><i>“风险管理很像开车，如果前方有盲区，而你不踩刹车控制车速，你就不太可能避开前方的危险。</i><b><i>是的，踩刹车以更好地控制汽车会减慢您到达目的地的时间。然而，迟到比根本不去那里要好得多。”</i></b><b>只是个警告</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Again, I am not implying, suggesting, or stating that such signals mean going 100% to cash.</b>&nbsp;What I am suggesting is that when&nbsp;<i>“sell signals”</i>&nbsp;are given, that is the time when individuals should perform some essential portfolio risk management such as:</p><p><blockquote><b>再说一次，我并不是暗示、建议或陈述这样的信号意味着100%兑现。</b>我的建议是当<i>“卖出信号”</i>给出，这是个人应该执行一些基本的投资组合风险管理的时间，例如：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Trim back winning positions to original portfolio weights:</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Let Winners Run</b></i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>将获胜头寸削减至原始投资组合权重：</i><i><b>投资法则：让赢家奔跑</b></i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Sell positions that simply are not working (if the position was not working in a rising market, it likely won’t in a declining market.)</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Cut Losers Short</b></i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>卖出根本不起作用的头寸（如果该头寸在上涨的市场中不起作用，那么在下跌的市场中也可能不起作用。）</i><i><b>投资法则：做空输家</b></i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Hold the cash raised from these activities until the next buying opportunity occurs.</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Buy Low</b></i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>持有从这些活动中筹集的现金，直到下一次购买机会出现。</i><i><b>投资法则：低吸</b></i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> As stated, there is minimal risk in&nbsp;<i>“risk management.”</i>&nbsp;In the long term, the results of avoiding periods of severe capital loss will outweigh missed short-term gains.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，风险最小<i>“风险管理。”</i>从长远来看，避免严重资本损失时期的结果将超过错过的短期收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>While I agree you can not</b><b><i>“time the markets,”you can “manage risk” to improve your long-term outcomes.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b>虽然我同意你不能</b><b><i>“把握市场时机”，你可以“管理风险”来改善你的长期结果。</i></b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warning-signs-correction-ahead?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warning-signs-correction-ahead?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108456666","content_text":"After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.\nOver the last few weeks, we discussed the rising risk of a correction between 5-10%, most likely this summer. Such drawdowns are historically very common within any given year of an ongoing bull market. As Sentiment Trader recently noted, we are now in one of the more extended periods without such an occurrence.\nOf course, as is always the case, amid a bullish advance, it is easy to become complacent as prices rise.\nBefore we go any further, it is essential to clarify we are discussing only the potential for a short-term correction. As is often the case, some tend to extrapolate such to mean I am saying a “crash” is coming, and you should be all in cash. Such an extreme move is ill-advised without a significant weight of evidence.\nHowever, there is reason to be cautious in the near term.\nSuppressed Volatility\nAs I stated, during a “bullish advance,”investors become incredibly complacent. That“complacency” leads to excessive speculative risk-taking.We see clear evidence of that activity in various“risk-on” asset classes from Cryptocurrencies, to SPAC’s, to“Meme Stocks.”\nA measure of speculative excess is the Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below is from my colleague Jim Colquitt of Armor ETF’s.\nThe top pane is the 15-day moving average of VIX, which is on an inverted scale. The bottom pane is the S&P 500 index.\n\n\n“The market may have one last push higher over the next several weeks. Such will take the VIX even lower and complete the VIX wedge pattern.\nThat pattern has been evident in the last three 10% or greater corrections.\n By this measure, the correction should begin somewhere around July 21st – August 10th.” – Jim Colquitt\n\nAs they say, “timing is everything.”While a July-August time frame is entirely possible, a June-July correction is just as likely. What is essential, as we will discuss momentarily, is understanding that risk is prevalent.\nMarket Exuberance Stretched Again\nIt isn’t just complacency that is suggestive of a short-term market correction. There are numerous others as well.\nAs my friend Daniel Lacalle recently posted, Morgan Stanley‘s market timing indicator is at levels that have typically coincided with market downturns. Just for reference, the current reading is the most “bearish” on record.\n\nFurthermore, a host of other indicators posted by @Not_Jim_Crameralso suggests there are reasons for concern about a correction.\n\nInflationary Warning\nLastly, this note from Tom Bowley caught my eye on Saturday.\n\n“The S&P 500 reached a high on Friday of 4233.45, narrowly eclipsing the all-time high close of 4232.60 from May 7th.\nUnfortunately for the bulls, selling in the final few minutes ruined the breakout attempt. This false breakout, ever so slight, could be quite ominous for next week and there’s one MAJOR reason why. Inflation data.\nThat May 7th all-time high came just days before the shocking April CPI data was released on May 12th. Now here we are back at the high again.\nAs the late Yogi Berra might say, “it’s deja vu all over again!” I don’t believe inflation to be a problem, but just the possibility of it could trigger scary headlines and encourage selling in the week ahead.”\n – Tom Bowley, Stockcharts\n\nThe chart below shows the differential between the annual rates of change of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI.) It should not be surprising that when PPI surges well ahead of CPI, equity markets tend to run into problems.Such is because this shows producers are unable to pass the inflation along to their customers. Consequently, this leads to reduced earnings and a repricing of risk assets.\n\nTom goes on to state inflation will not be a problem longer-term correctly. However, in the near term, the surge in inflation will weigh on outlooks, creating corrective actions.\nThe Problem With Technicals\nI want to reiterate a point from the most recent newsletter:\n\nThe biggest problem is that technical indicators do not distinguish between a consolidation, a correction, or an outright bear market.\n As such, if you ignore the signals as they occur, by the time you realize it’s a deep correction, it is too late to do much about it.\nTherefore, we must treat each signal with the same respect and adjust risk accordingly. The opportunity costs of doing so are minimal.\n\nIf we reduce risk and the market continues to rise, we can increase risk exposures. Yes, we sacrifice some short-term performance. However, if we reduce risk and the market declines sharply, we not only protect capital during the decline but have the liquidity to deploy at lower price levels.\nSuch is the problem with“buy and hold” strategies. Yes, you will perform in line with the market, but given that you didn’t “sell high,” there is no cash available with which to “buy low” in the future.\nWith that stated, here is the most significant problem of technical analysis.All of the warnings noted above suggest there is a risk of a correction in the near term. However, technical analysis does not differentiate between a 5% pullback, a 10% correction, or a“bear market.”\nYou will only find that out once it begins, and such is why risk management is essential.\n\n“Risk management is much like driving a car. If there is a blind spot ahead, and you don’t tap on the brakes to control your speed, you are unlikely to avoid the hazard ahead.\nYes, tapping on the brakes to provide more control over the car will slow your arrival time to your destination. However, being late is a much better option than not getting there at all.”\n\nJust A Warning\nAgain, I am not implying, suggesting, or stating that such signals mean going 100% to cash. What I am suggesting is that when “sell signals” are given, that is the time when individuals should perform some essential portfolio risk management such as:\n\nTrim back winning positions to original portfolio weights:Investment Rule: Let Winners Run\nSell positions that simply are not working (if the position was not working in a rising market, it likely won’t in a declining market.)Investment Rule: Cut Losers Short\nHold the cash raised from these activities until the next buying opportunity occurs.Investment Rule: Buy Low\n\nAs stated, there is minimal risk in “risk management.” In the long term, the results of avoiding periods of severe capital loss will outweigh missed short-term gains.\nWhile I agree you can not“time the markets,”you can “manage risk” to improve your long-term outcomes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}