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toranoana
toranoana
·
2021-02-27
Coool soon we can normal life
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toranoana
toranoana
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2021-02-27
Really now
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toranoana
toranoana
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2021-02-27
Lmao
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toranoana
toranoana
·
2021-02-26
Moooooonnn go to marrrss!!
Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>
Gamestop Corp. shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from
Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>
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toranoana
toranoana
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2021-02-25
Widening wealth gap
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toranoana
toranoana
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2021-02-25
Really now
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toranoana
toranoana
·
2021-02-25
Cooolll
Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500<blockquote>为什么摩根大通表示现在是押注标普500的时候</blockquote>
Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullie
Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500<blockquote>为什么摩根大通表示现在是押注标普500的时候</blockquote>
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toranoana
toranoana
·
2021-02-24
Time to buy the dip!!
Why the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote>
High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the sell
Why the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote>
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toranoana
toranoana
·
2021-02-24
Hope we can buy in on the fire sale to come!!
The S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷:标普500还有更大的上涨空间</blockquote>
Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold
The S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷:标普500还有更大的上涨空间</blockquote>
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toranoana
toranoana
·
2021-02-24
Lmao wot is this guy serious
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now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366317685","repostId":"1181374212","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366317386,"gmtCreate":1614394304345,"gmtModify":1703477245164,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Lmao","listText":"Lmao","text":"Lmao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366317386","repostId":"1117820997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368551564,"gmtCreate":1614340834358,"gmtModify":1703476609542,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Moooooonnn go to marrrss!!","listText":"Moooooonnn go to marrrss!!","text":"Moooooonnn go to marrrss!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368551564","repostId":"1146313632","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146313632","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614334339,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146313632?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 18:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146313632","media":"Options AI: Learn","summary":"Gamestop Corp. shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from ","content":"<p><b>Gamestop Corp.</b> shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站公司。</b>过去几天股价飙升,较上周一度上涨近200%(但仍较近期轧空高点大幅下跌)。我们将看看像游戏驿站这样波动性很大的股票的期权中出现的独特情况,以及在交易期权之前可能需要考虑的一些事情。</blockquote></p><p><hr><b>Gamestop: The Expected Move</b></p><p><blockquote><hr/><b>游戏驿站:预期的举动</b></blockquote></p><p>First, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):</p><p><blockquote>首先,看看期权如何为即将到来的走势定价。这是游戏驿站的期权AI预期走势图,预计本周五收盘价将出现近30%的走势。下个月的价格将上涨大约80%。包含盈利事件的月份(未经确认):</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35872724d8db887fa09d822d622ac8c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright Calls</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站:看涨期权价差与彻底的评级</blockquote></p><p>Using March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.</p><p><blockquote>以3月19日为到期日,我们首先查看看涨利差,并直接与直接评级进行比较。像游戏驿站这样不稳定的股票,评级的股价可能会很昂贵。正因为如此,许多交易者诉诸远超本钱的评级买入。对上行评级的需求增加了这些评级的波动性,使其相对于平价评级的价格昂贵——这种现象被称为倾斜。然而,对于那些看涨的人来说,这可能会创造一个利用价差而不是直接购买看涨期权的机会。让我们看看怎么做。</blockquote></p><p>Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.</p><p><blockquote>在这里,我们将重点关注一种替代方案——使用借方利差来降低定向交易的总体成本(同时通过降低盈亏平衡水平来提高交易本身的盈利概率)。它通过出售那些相对昂贵的价外评级来帮助购买更接近价外的看涨期权来实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p>With Gamestop near $105, the <b>March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread</b> is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.</p><p><blockquote>随着游戏驿站接近105美元,<b>3月19日110/190借方看涨期权利差</b>大约为15美元,目标是3月19日的看涨预期走势。借方看涨期权利差需要该股在3月19日高于125美元才能盈利。</blockquote></p><p>As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:</p><p><blockquote>相比之下,GME 3月19日200评级的交易价格为29美元。这几乎是200美元看涨期权的成本的两倍,需要股票在3月19日之前高于229美元……而看涨期权的价差需要股票高于125美元。以下是期权人工智能图表上这两种交易的并排比较。一、200家看涨期权:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b044a22bfbe5a8326f9aa3ebf56ed4fd\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:</p><p><blockquote>接下来,145/200借方看涨期权利差:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cdf8545f07da48f770ef81cb4e5ac53\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的,看涨期权价差不仅更便宜,而且上涨盈利的点也更接近股票当前的交易价格。(如盈亏平衡的灰色价格所示。)</blockquote></p><p>A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).</p><p><blockquote>关于盈利概率的一个注记。这些交易显示的利润概率基于分配给交易盈亏平衡的delta。105美元股票的200看涨期权交易价格接近50 deltas,这一事实表明游戏驿站波动对其期权产生了多么扭曲的影响(难以借贷、扭曲零售对价外评级的需求)。</blockquote></p><p>Directional Butterflies vs Outright Puts</p><p><blockquote>定向蝶形与直接看跌期权</blockquote></p><p>High volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.</p><p><blockquote>高波动性也会影响看跌期权交易。像游戏驿站这样的高波动性股票的一个反直觉的方面是,其隐含波动率可能会随着股票走高而上升,随着股票走低而下降。这与我们通常对波动性的看法相反。因此,随着股票走低,直接买入看跌期权会带来波动性崩溃(从而导致溢价崩溃)的风险。因此,即使股票正朝着预期的方向移动,作为期权持有者,您可能无法实现预期的收益。</blockquote></p><p>One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).</p><p><blockquote>应对股票高隐含波动率的一种方法(尤其是在持有看跌观点时)是成为期权溢价的净卖家。向看涨期权交易者出售,而不是加入看跌期权交易者。传统上,这可能采取出售信贷看涨期权利差的形式。但在GME的情况下,这意味着以比更接近资金的看涨期权更高的波动性购买(昂贵的)上行看涨期权(如上所述)。</blockquote></p><p>So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.</p><p><blockquote>因此,交易者可以考虑的一种期权策略是使用蝴蝶。期权交易通常与中性交易观点相关,但在这里适用于实际创建目标(看跌)方向观点。</blockquote></p><p>Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:</p><p><blockquote>举个例子,这里有一只蝴蝶,其中心罢工集中在80美元的股票上,到期日为3月19日:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7cb8f9b0570e854f662f3031e50ca91\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.</p><p><blockquote>这只130/80/30蝴蝶的盈亏平衡点为115和45,这意味着如果股票在3月19日到期时处于这两个价格之间,交易是有利可图的……如果股票处于或接近80美元,则会出现最大收益。它具有空头溢价的额外动力,如果股票保持在其范围内,如果隐含波动率被压缩,则按市值计算将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1614334070724","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Options AI: Learn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-26 18:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Gamestop Corp.</b> shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站公司。</b>过去几天股价飙升,较上周一度上涨近200%(但仍较近期轧空高点大幅下跌)。我们将看看像游戏驿站这样波动性很大的股票的期权中出现的独特情况,以及在交易期权之前可能需要考虑的一些事情。</blockquote></p><p><hr><b>Gamestop: The Expected Move</b></p><p><blockquote><hr/><b>游戏驿站:预期的举动</b></blockquote></p><p>First, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):</p><p><blockquote>首先,看看期权如何为即将到来的走势定价。这是游戏驿站的期权AI预期走势图,预计本周五收盘价将出现近30%的走势。下个月的价格将上涨大约80%。包含盈利事件的月份(未经确认):</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35872724d8db887fa09d822d622ac8c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright Calls</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站:看涨期权价差与彻底的评级</blockquote></p><p>Using March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.</p><p><blockquote>以3月19日为到期日,我们首先查看看涨利差,并直接与直接评级进行比较。像游戏驿站这样不稳定的股票,评级的股价可能会很昂贵。正因为如此,许多交易者诉诸远超本钱的评级买入。对上行评级的需求增加了这些评级的波动性,使其相对于平价评级的价格昂贵——这种现象被称为倾斜。然而,对于那些看涨的人来说,这可能会创造一个利用价差而不是直接购买看涨期权的机会。让我们看看怎么做。</blockquote></p><p>Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.</p><p><blockquote>在这里,我们将重点关注一种替代方案——使用借方利差来降低定向交易的总体成本(同时通过降低盈亏平衡水平来提高交易本身的盈利概率)。它通过出售那些相对昂贵的价外评级来帮助购买更接近价外的看涨期权来实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p>With Gamestop near $105, the <b>March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread</b> is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.</p><p><blockquote>随着游戏驿站接近105美元,<b>3月19日110/190借方看涨期权利差</b>大约为15美元,目标是3月19日的看涨预期走势。借方看涨期权利差需要该股在3月19日高于125美元才能盈利。</blockquote></p><p>As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:</p><p><blockquote>相比之下,GME 3月19日200评级的交易价格为29美元。这几乎是200美元看涨期权的成本的两倍,需要股票在3月19日之前高于229美元……而看涨期权的价差需要股票高于125美元。以下是期权人工智能图表上这两种交易的并排比较。一、200家看涨期权:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b044a22bfbe5a8326f9aa3ebf56ed4fd\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:</p><p><blockquote>接下来,145/200借方看涨期权利差:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cdf8545f07da48f770ef81cb4e5ac53\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的,看涨期权价差不仅更便宜,而且上涨盈利的点也更接近股票当前的交易价格。(如盈亏平衡的灰色价格所示。)</blockquote></p><p>A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).</p><p><blockquote>关于盈利概率的一个注记。这些交易显示的利润概率基于分配给交易盈亏平衡的delta。105美元股票的200看涨期权交易价格接近50 deltas,这一事实表明游戏驿站波动对其期权产生了多么扭曲的影响(难以借贷、扭曲零售对价外评级的需求)。</blockquote></p><p>Directional Butterflies vs Outright Puts</p><p><blockquote>定向蝶形与直接看跌期权</blockquote></p><p>High volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.</p><p><blockquote>高波动性也会影响看跌期权交易。像游戏驿站这样的高波动性股票的一个反直觉的方面是,其隐含波动率可能会随着股票走高而上升,随着股票走低而下降。这与我们通常对波动性的看法相反。因此,随着股票走低,直接买入看跌期权会带来波动性崩溃(从而导致溢价崩溃)的风险。因此,即使股票正朝着预期的方向移动,作为期权持有者,您可能无法实现预期的收益。</blockquote></p><p>One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).</p><p><blockquote>应对股票高隐含波动率的一种方法(尤其是在持有看跌观点时)是成为期权溢价的净卖家。向看涨期权交易者出售,而不是加入看跌期权交易者。传统上,这可能采取出售信贷看涨期权利差的形式。但在GME的情况下,这意味着以比更接近资金的看涨期权更高的波动性购买(昂贵的)上行看涨期权(如上所述)。</blockquote></p><p>So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.</p><p><blockquote>因此,交易者可以考虑的一种期权策略是使用蝴蝶。期权交易通常与中性交易观点相关,但在这里适用于实际创建目标(看跌)方向观点。</blockquote></p><p>Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:</p><p><blockquote>举个例子,这里有一只蝴蝶,其中心罢工集中在80美元的股票上,到期日为3月19日:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7cb8f9b0570e854f662f3031e50ca91\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.</p><p><blockquote>这只130/80/30蝴蝶的盈亏平衡点为115和45,这意味着如果股票在3月19日到期时处于这两个价格之间,交易是有利可图的……如果股票处于或接近80美元,则会出现最大收益。它具有空头溢价的额外动力,如果股票保持在其范围内,如果隐含波动率被压缩,则按市值计算将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://learn.optionsai.com/gamestop-and-high-volatility-options/\">Options AI: Learn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://learn.optionsai.com/gamestop-and-high-volatility-options/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146313632","content_text":"Gamestop Corp. shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.Gamestop: The Expected MoveFirst, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright CallsUsing March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.With Gamestop near $105, the March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).Directional Butterflies vs Outright PutsHigh volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361358452,"gmtCreate":1614209059976,"gmtModify":1634550736827,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Widening wealth gap","listText":"Widening wealth gap","text":"Widening wealth gap","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361358452","repostId":"1109259264","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361358052,"gmtCreate":1614208983976,"gmtModify":1634550737428,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Really now","listText":"Really now","text":"Really now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361358052","repostId":"1138795890","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361351840,"gmtCreate":1614208941780,"gmtModify":1634550737788,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cooolll","listText":"Cooolll","text":"Cooolll","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361351840","repostId":"1129467108","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129467108","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614164417,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129467108?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 19:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500<blockquote>为什么摩根大通表示现在是押注标普500的时候</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129467108","media":"Barrons","summary":"Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullie","content":"<p>Don’t worry. Be greedy.</p><p><blockquote>别担心。要贪心。</blockquote></p><p>Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管投资者的担忧正在加剧,股市也受到债券收益率上升的欺负,但J.P.摩根策略师告诉他们的客户,现在是拥抱股票的时候了。</blockquote></p><p>TheS&P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数可能在3875点附近徘徊,但该行坚持2021年年底目标价4400点,区间为4200点至4600点。它的数字不仅仅是股市预期收益的一些衍生物。相反,它们反映了美国在Covid-19大流行后的经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p>Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通衍生品策略师肖恩·奎格(Shawn Quigg)最近告诉客户,市场实现“这种收益迟早会到来,特别是考虑到未来的众多催化剂、它们对波动性的影响以及对投资者定位的影响。”</blockquote></p><p>As President Joe Biden’s administration champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.</p><p><blockquote>随着乔·拜登总统的政府支持1.9万亿美元的刺激计划,以及Covid-19感染和住院人数的下降,奎格预计股市将飙升。他的观点与近期交易有些出入。随着10年期国债收益率升至1.38%左右,股市下跌,此举加剧了通胀担忧和对股市暴跌的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>奎格喜欢利用恐惧和悬而未决的刺激计划,拜登已经开始为该计划辩护,因为担心该计划规模过大。在各种采访中,总统挑战批评者告诉他,在这个国家如此多的人遭受苦难的时候,应该削减什么。拜登政府现在警告说,最大的风险不是大规模的刺激计划,而是规模太小,因此无法有意义地刺激经济增长。</blockquote></p><p>To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.</p><p><blockquote>为了让股市飙升,Quigg建议客户考虑出售SPDR标普500 ETF(股票代码:SPDR标普500指数ETF)5月353美元的看跌期权之一,并购买5月15日450美元的看涨期权期权。当ETF价格为392.39美元时,杠杆风险逆转策略——即卖出一份看跌期权并买入更多执行价格更高但到期日相同的评级——可以免费完成。换句话说,卖出看跌期权收到的钱足以买入15个看涨的评级。</blockquote></p><p>The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.</p><p><blockquote>该交易表明,该ETF(最近交易价格约为387美元)将在5月21日5月期权到期时达到450美元。看涨期权售价460美元,价值10美元。</blockquote></p><p>Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.</p><p><blockquote>比方说,如果ETF下跌,因为当前的担忧将市场推至353美元的执行价格以下,投资者将有义务以较低的价格买入,或者回补或调整看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p>Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.</p><p><blockquote>奎格的交易理念有很多值得钦佩的地方。</blockquote></p><p>For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.</p><p><blockquote>其一,上周晚些时候推荐该交易时成本为零。是的,自2月18日的报告发布以来,价格已经发生了变化,但投资者可以重新制定执行价格以创建类似的定价。市场会发生变化,这就是为什么列出了这么多不同的执行价格。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.</p><p><blockquote>此外,如果摩根大通对经济复苏的基本观点被证明是正确的,那么拥有一批不需要花费任何成本的上行评级可能会非常有利可图。如果市场屈服于当前价格走软的担忧,以较低的价格持有标普500股票也并不可怕。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500<blockquote>为什么摩根大通表示现在是押注标普500的时候</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500<blockquote>为什么摩根大通表示现在是押注标普500的时候</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 19:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Don’t worry. Be greedy.</p><p><blockquote>别担心。要贪心。</blockquote></p><p>Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管投资者的担忧正在加剧,股市也受到债券收益率上升的欺负,但J.P.摩根策略师告诉他们的客户,现在是拥抱股票的时候了。</blockquote></p><p>TheS&P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数可能在3875点附近徘徊,但该行坚持2021年年底目标价4400点,区间为4200点至4600点。它的数字不仅仅是股市预期收益的一些衍生物。相反,它们反映了美国在Covid-19大流行后的经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p>Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通衍生品策略师肖恩·奎格(Shawn Quigg)最近告诉客户,市场实现“这种收益迟早会到来,特别是考虑到未来的众多催化剂、它们对波动性的影响以及对投资者定位的影响。”</blockquote></p><p>As President Joe Biden’s administration champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.</p><p><blockquote>随着乔·拜登总统的政府支持1.9万亿美元的刺激计划,以及Covid-19感染和住院人数的下降,奎格预计股市将飙升。他的观点与近期交易有些出入。随着10年期国债收益率升至1.38%左右,股市下跌,此举加剧了通胀担忧和对股市暴跌的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>奎格喜欢利用恐惧和悬而未决的刺激计划,拜登已经开始为该计划辩护,因为担心该计划规模过大。在各种采访中,总统挑战批评者告诉他,在这个国家如此多的人遭受苦难的时候,应该削减什么。拜登政府现在警告说,最大的风险不是大规模的刺激计划,而是规模太小,因此无法有意义地刺激经济增长。</blockquote></p><p>To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.</p><p><blockquote>为了让股市飙升,Quigg建议客户考虑出售SPDR标普500 ETF(股票代码:SPDR标普500指数ETF)5月353美元的看跌期权之一,并购买5月15日450美元的看涨期权期权。当ETF价格为392.39美元时,杠杆风险逆转策略——即卖出一份看跌期权并买入更多执行价格更高但到期日相同的评级——可以免费完成。换句话说,卖出看跌期权收到的钱足以买入15个看涨的评级。</blockquote></p><p>The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.</p><p><blockquote>该交易表明,该ETF(最近交易价格约为387美元)将在5月21日5月期权到期时达到450美元。看涨期权售价460美元,价值10美元。</blockquote></p><p>Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.</p><p><blockquote>比方说,如果ETF下跌,因为当前的担忧将市场推至353美元的执行价格以下,投资者将有义务以较低的价格买入,或者回补或调整看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p>Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.</p><p><blockquote>奎格的交易理念有很多值得钦佩的地方。</blockquote></p><p>For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.</p><p><blockquote>其一,上周晚些时候推荐该交易时成本为零。是的,自2月18日的报告发布以来,价格已经发生了变化,但投资者可以重新制定执行价格以创建类似的定价。市场会发生变化,这就是为什么列出了这么多不同的执行价格。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.</p><p><blockquote>此外,如果摩根大通对经济复苏的基本观点被证明是正确的,那么拥有一批不需要花费任何成本的上行评级可能会非常有利可图。如果市场屈服于当前价格走软的担忧,以较低的价格持有标普500股票也并不可怕。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129467108","content_text":"Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.TheS&P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”As President Joe Biden’s administration champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363509068,"gmtCreate":1614147869155,"gmtModify":1634550979991,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time to buy the dip!!","listText":"Time to buy the dip!!","text":"Time to buy the dip!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363509068","repostId":"1185609211","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185609211","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614139419,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185609211?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 12:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185609211","media":"TheStreet","summary":"High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the sell","content":"<p>High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the selloff could also create buying opportunities in other tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>高估值、保证金债务和方舟效应可能会给一些公司带来更多痛苦。但抛售也可能为其他科技公司创造买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> While many speculative Robinhood favorites are down sharply over the last couple of weeks, they're still often well above where they traded two or three months ago, and arguably remain quite overvalued on the whole.</p><p><blockquote>尽管许多投机性的Robinhood最爱在过去几周大幅下跌,但它们通常仍远高于两三个月前的交易水平,并且可以说总体上仍然被高估。</blockquote></p><p> For example, while fuel cell plays Plug Power (PLUG) , FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power (BLDP) are now down 40%, 44% and 32%, respectively, from recently-set highs, they're still 67%, 92% and 33% from where they closed three months ago. And they each still sport forward sales multiples north of 40.</p><p><blockquote>例如,虽然燃料电池公司普拉格能源(PLUG)、燃料电池能源(FCEL)和巴拉德电力(BLDP)目前分别较最近创下的高点下跌40%、44%和32%,但仍为67%,较三个月前收盘时分别下跌92%和33%。它们的预期销售倍数仍然超过40。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, 3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD) , Stratasys (SSYS) and ExOne (XONE) remain up 357%, 147% and 215%, respectively, over the last three months. EV plays QuantumScape (QS) and Luminar Technologies (LAZR) are up 150% and 123%, respectively, over the last three months and still sport sky-high valuations -- QuantumScape, which doesn't expect to see its solid-state battery enter production until 2024, is still worth $20 billion. And soon-to-merge cannabis plays Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA) are up 252% and 171%, respectively, and maintain double-digit forward sales multiples.</p><p><blockquote>同样,3D打印领域3D Systems(DDD)、Stratasys(SSYS)和ExOne(XONE)在过去三个月中分别增长了357%、147%和215%。电动汽车公司QuantumScape(QS)和Luminar Technologies(LAZR)在过去三个月中分别上涨了150%和123%,并且估值仍然很高——QuantumScape预计不会推出固态电池2024年投入生产,价值仍为200亿美元。即将合并的大麻公司Tilray(TLRY)和Aphria(APHA)分别上涨252%和171%,并保持两位数的远期销售倍数。</blockquote></p><p> In a nutshell, valuations are still generally stretched for some companies, and some investors still have large paper profits that they could turn into real profits if the current selling unnerves them. In addition, judging bythe spike seenin margin debt balances over the last few months, many newer investors in these companies could be forced to unload their positions due to margin calls if the selling continues.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之,一些公司的估值仍然普遍过高,一些投资者仍然拥有大量账面利润,如果当前的抛售让他们感到不安,他们可以将这些利润转化为实际利润。此外,从过去几个月保证金债务余额的飙升来看,如果抛售继续下去,这些公司的许多新投资者可能会因保证金评级而被迫抛售头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Also, asothers have pointed out, ARK Invest's trading activity could go from being a tailwind for various high-multiple tech stocks to a headwind. In recent months, giant retail investor inflows for the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and other ARK funds have contributed to the huge rallies seen in various clean energy, 3D printing, software/cloud and biotech names that ARK has been partial to. Conversely, though, major outflows for ARK funds could make the selling pressure in such names during a selloff stronger than it otherwise would be.</p><p><blockquote>此外,其他人指出,ARK Invest的交易活动可能会从各种高市盈率科技股的顺风变成逆风。近几个月来,ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)和其他ARK基金的巨额散户投资者资金流入推动了ARK偏爱的各种清洁能源、3D打印、软件/云和生物技术公司的大幅上涨。但相反,方舟基金的大量资金外流可能会使此类股票在抛售期间面临比其他情况下更大的抛售压力。</blockquote></p><p> With all that said,I'm not sold at this point on the current selloff being the start of a bear market for tech stocks overall.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述,我目前并不相信当前的抛售是科技股整体熊市的开始。</blockquote></p><p> In spite of the speculative frenzy in some corners of tech, quite a few quality tech names remain moderately-valued or just a little expensive right now. And between vaccine rollouts, elevated household savings levels and the likely arrival of additional stimulus in March, the macro backdrop still looks favorable, though it's possible that some stay-at-home plays see demand cool off a bit in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管科技领域的某些领域存在投机狂潮,但相当多优质科技公司目前仍处于中等估值或只是有点贵。在疫苗的推出、家庭储蓄水平的提高以及三月份可能出台的额外刺激措施之间,宏观背景看起来仍然有利,尽管一些居家度假的需求可能会在未来几个月有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Eventually</i>, inflation, higher bond yields and a tightening Fed could become a problem for tech stocks in general. But we still appear to be a ways away from reaching that point, and for now, the Fed remains as accommodative as ever.</p><p><blockquote><i>最终</i>、通胀、债券收益率上升和美联储收紧政策可能会成为科技股的总体问题。但我们似乎距离达到这一点还有很长的路要走,就目前而言,美联储仍然一如既往地宽松。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, if the current tech rout continues and leads both very expensive and not-so-expensive companies to see more selling pressure, the risk/reward could start looking very good for some of the more reasonably-priced names.</p><p><blockquote>因此,如果当前的科技股溃败持续下去,导致非常昂贵和不太昂贵的公司面临更大的抛售压力,那么对于一些价格更合理的公司来说,风险/回报可能会开始看起来非常好。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 12:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the selloff could also create buying opportunities in other tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>高估值、保证金债务和方舟效应可能会给一些公司带来更多痛苦。但抛售也可能为其他科技公司创造买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> While many speculative Robinhood favorites are down sharply over the last couple of weeks, they're still often well above where they traded two or three months ago, and arguably remain quite overvalued on the whole.</p><p><blockquote>尽管许多投机性的Robinhood最爱在过去几周大幅下跌,但它们通常仍远高于两三个月前的交易水平,并且可以说总体上仍然被高估。</blockquote></p><p> For example, while fuel cell plays Plug Power (PLUG) , FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power (BLDP) are now down 40%, 44% and 32%, respectively, from recently-set highs, they're still 67%, 92% and 33% from where they closed three months ago. And they each still sport forward sales multiples north of 40.</p><p><blockquote>例如,虽然燃料电池公司普拉格能源(PLUG)、燃料电池能源(FCEL)和巴拉德电力(BLDP)目前分别较最近创下的高点下跌40%、44%和32%,但仍为67%,较三个月前收盘时分别下跌92%和33%。它们的预期销售倍数仍然超过40。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, 3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD) , Stratasys (SSYS) and ExOne (XONE) remain up 357%, 147% and 215%, respectively, over the last three months. EV plays QuantumScape (QS) and Luminar Technologies (LAZR) are up 150% and 123%, respectively, over the last three months and still sport sky-high valuations -- QuantumScape, which doesn't expect to see its solid-state battery enter production until 2024, is still worth $20 billion. And soon-to-merge cannabis plays Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA) are up 252% and 171%, respectively, and maintain double-digit forward sales multiples.</p><p><blockquote>同样,3D打印领域3D Systems(DDD)、Stratasys(SSYS)和ExOne(XONE)在过去三个月中分别增长了357%、147%和215%。电动汽车公司QuantumScape(QS)和Luminar Technologies(LAZR)在过去三个月中分别上涨了150%和123%,并且估值仍然很高——QuantumScape预计不会推出固态电池2024年投入生产,价值仍为200亿美元。即将合并的大麻公司Tilray(TLRY)和Aphria(APHA)分别上涨252%和171%,并保持两位数的远期销售倍数。</blockquote></p><p> In a nutshell, valuations are still generally stretched for some companies, and some investors still have large paper profits that they could turn into real profits if the current selling unnerves them. In addition, judging bythe spike seenin margin debt balances over the last few months, many newer investors in these companies could be forced to unload their positions due to margin calls if the selling continues.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之,一些公司的估值仍然普遍过高,一些投资者仍然拥有大量账面利润,如果当前的抛售让他们感到不安,他们可以将这些利润转化为实际利润。此外,从过去几个月保证金债务余额的飙升来看,如果抛售继续下去,这些公司的许多新投资者可能会因保证金评级而被迫抛售头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Also, asothers have pointed out, ARK Invest's trading activity could go from being a tailwind for various high-multiple tech stocks to a headwind. In recent months, giant retail investor inflows for the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and other ARK funds have contributed to the huge rallies seen in various clean energy, 3D printing, software/cloud and biotech names that ARK has been partial to. Conversely, though, major outflows for ARK funds could make the selling pressure in such names during a selloff stronger than it otherwise would be.</p><p><blockquote>此外,其他人指出,ARK Invest的交易活动可能会从各种高市盈率科技股的顺风变成逆风。近几个月来,ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)和其他ARK基金的巨额散户投资者资金流入推动了ARK偏爱的各种清洁能源、3D打印、软件/云和生物技术公司的大幅上涨。但相反,方舟基金的大量资金外流可能会使此类股票在抛售期间面临比其他情况下更大的抛售压力。</blockquote></p><p> With all that said,I'm not sold at this point on the current selloff being the start of a bear market for tech stocks overall.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述,我目前并不相信当前的抛售是科技股整体熊市的开始。</blockquote></p><p> In spite of the speculative frenzy in some corners of tech, quite a few quality tech names remain moderately-valued or just a little expensive right now. And between vaccine rollouts, elevated household savings levels and the likely arrival of additional stimulus in March, the macro backdrop still looks favorable, though it's possible that some stay-at-home plays see demand cool off a bit in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管科技领域的某些领域存在投机狂潮,但相当多优质科技公司目前仍处于中等估值或只是有点贵。在疫苗的推出、家庭储蓄水平的提高以及三月份可能出台的额外刺激措施之间,宏观背景看起来仍然有利,尽管一些居家度假的需求可能会在未来几个月有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Eventually</i>, inflation, higher bond yields and a tightening Fed could become a problem for tech stocks in general. But we still appear to be a ways away from reaching that point, and for now, the Fed remains as accommodative as ever.</p><p><blockquote><i>最终</i>、通胀、债券收益率上升和美联储收紧政策可能会成为科技股的总体问题。但我们似乎距离达到这一点还有很长的路要走,就目前而言,美联储仍然一如既往地宽松。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, if the current tech rout continues and leads both very expensive and not-so-expensive companies to see more selling pressure, the risk/reward could start looking very good for some of the more reasonably-priced names.</p><p><blockquote>因此,如果当前的科技股溃败持续下去,导致非常昂贵和不太昂贵的公司面临更大的抛售压力,那么对于一些价格更合理的公司来说,风险/回报可能会开始看起来非常好。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/technology/why-the-plunge-in-more-speculative-tech-stocks-might-not-be-over-yet-15575838\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FCEL":"燃料电池能源","APHA":"Aphria Inc.","DDD":"3D系统","PLUG":"普拉格能源","LAZR":"Tema Photonics & Optical ETF","XONE":"BondBloxx Bloomberg One Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","SSYS":"Stratasys","BLDP":"巴拉德动力系统","TLRY":"Tilray Inc.","QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/technology/why-the-plunge-in-more-speculative-tech-stocks-might-not-be-over-yet-15575838","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185609211","content_text":"High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the selloff could also create buying opportunities in other tech companies.\nWhile many speculative Robinhood favorites are down sharply over the last couple of weeks, they're still often well above where they traded two or three months ago, and arguably remain quite overvalued on the whole.\nFor example, while fuel cell plays Plug Power (PLUG) , FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power (BLDP) are now down 40%, 44% and 32%, respectively, from recently-set highs, they're still 67%, 92% and 33% from where they closed three months ago. And they each still sport forward sales multiples north of 40.\nLikewise, 3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD) , Stratasys (SSYS) and ExOne (XONE) remain up 357%, 147% and 215%, respectively, over the last three months. EV plays QuantumScape (QS) and Luminar Technologies (LAZR) are up 150% and 123%, respectively, over the last three months and still sport sky-high valuations -- QuantumScape, which doesn't expect to see its solid-state battery enter production until 2024, is still worth $20 billion. And soon-to-merge cannabis plays Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA) are up 252% and 171%, respectively, and maintain double-digit forward sales multiples.\nIn a nutshell, valuations are still generally stretched for some companies, and some investors still have large paper profits that they could turn into real profits if the current selling unnerves them. In addition, judging bythe spike seenin margin debt balances over the last few months, many newer investors in these companies could be forced to unload their positions due to margin calls if the selling continues.\nAlso, asothers have pointed out, ARK Invest's trading activity could go from being a tailwind for various high-multiple tech stocks to a headwind. In recent months, giant retail investor inflows for the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and other ARK funds have contributed to the huge rallies seen in various clean energy, 3D printing, software/cloud and biotech names that ARK has been partial to. Conversely, though, major outflows for ARK funds could make the selling pressure in such names during a selloff stronger than it otherwise would be.\nWith all that said,I'm not sold at this point on the current selloff being the start of a bear market for tech stocks overall.\nIn spite of the speculative frenzy in some corners of tech, quite a few quality tech names remain moderately-valued or just a little expensive right now. And between vaccine rollouts, elevated household savings levels and the likely arrival of additional stimulus in March, the macro backdrop still looks favorable, though it's possible that some stay-at-home plays see demand cool off a bit in the coming months.\nEventually, inflation, higher bond yields and a tightening Fed could become a problem for tech stocks in general. But we still appear to be a ways away from reaching that point, and for now, the Fed remains as accommodative as ever.\nAs a result, if the current tech rout continues and leads both very expensive and not-so-expensive companies to see more selling pressure, the risk/reward could start looking very good for some of the more reasonably-priced names.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LAZR":0.9,"APHA":0.9,"FCEL":0.9,"XONE":0.9,"QS":0.9,"PLUG":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"BLDP":0.9,"SSYS":0.9,"DDD":0.9,"TLRY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363500583,"gmtCreate":1614147842942,"gmtModify":1634550980230,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hope we can buy in on the fire sale to come!!","listText":"Hope we can buy in on the fire sale to come!!","text":"Hope we can buy in on the fire sale to come!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363500583","repostId":"1111682954","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111682954","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614143481,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111682954?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 13:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷:标普500还有更大的上涨空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111682954","media":"Barrons","summary":"Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold","content":"<p>Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>最近盈利太好了,不容忽视,如果经济出现正确的发展,盈利可能会从目前的水平大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisseraised its 2021 price target for the S&P 500to $4,300 from $4,200 on Tuesday. That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷周二将标准普尔 500 指数 2021 年目标价从 4,200 美元上调至 4,300 美元。这意味着策略师预计,到今年年底,该指数将较当前水平上涨 11% 以上。相对于华尔街的普遍观点,这甚至不是一个激进的预测。FactSet 追踪的公司的平均看涨期权预计该指数将达到 4,400 美元。</blockquote></p><p> But the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.</p><p><blockquote>但这种乐观情绪确实有其价值。“瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)首席美国股票策略师乔纳森-戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)在一份报告中写道:”随着经济重新开放、刺激措施充足以及美联储政策超级宽松,2021 年的 GDP 预计将比过去 35 年来的任何时候都更热也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> He argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.</p><p><blockquote>他认为,由于标普500公司第四季度的每股收益总额超过了分析师的预测 17%,而且绝大多数公司都已经公布了业绩,因此盈利预期必须上调。</blockquote></p><p> Higher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>更高的盈利预期通常会导致股票价格更高。Golub 将标普500每股收益的宏观预期从 2021 年的 175 美元上调至 185 美元,从 2022 年的 200 美元上调至 210 美元。</blockquote></p><p> At first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.</p><p><blockquote>起初,投资者似乎并不在意公司将第四季度盈利预期降低。结果并不重要,理由是,如果 Covid-19 疫苗不能如期推出,或者不能充分抵御新毒株,当地经济就无法重新开放,收入也会暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> But now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day and trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>但现在, 疫苗每天都能找到数百万件武器和数万亿美元的额外财政刺激,这将支持预期的需求。本季度的盈利预期低于几周前第四季度的预期结果,因此随着与 Covid-19 相关的限制解除,华尔街上调盈利预期也就不足为奇了。策略师目前平均预计标普500 2022 年每股收益为 198 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.</p><p><blockquote>下一个问题是标普500上平均股票的每股收益可能是多少倍。Golub 预计,到今年年底,该指数的交易价格将略高于 2022 年总收益的 20 倍。这比目前未来 12 个月盈利预期低约 22 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Lower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍预计估值会下降,因为安全的美国国债收益率正在上升。更高的收益率使得投资股票的风险逐渐变得不那么有吸引力,从而减少了投资者愿意为未来每美元收益支付的金额。</blockquote></p><p> But the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.</p><p><blockquote>但利率上升也反映了对经济和通胀预期的改善,这与更好的盈利是一致的,这可能会推动股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> None of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不意味着没有风险。疫苗接种的任何重大挫折都将不利于盈利,而美联储过快、过高加息的决定将对经济和股票估值构成风险。</blockquote></p><p> Still, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此,风险正在消退。随着股票在当前的抛售中面临压力,上涨的潜力可能会增加。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷:标普500还有更大的上涨空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷:标普500还有更大的上涨空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 13:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>最近盈利太好了,不容忽视,如果经济出现正确的发展,盈利可能会从目前的水平大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisseraised its 2021 price target for the S&P 500to $4,300 from $4,200 on Tuesday. That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷周二将标准普尔 500 指数 2021 年目标价从 4,200 美元上调至 4,300 美元。这意味着策略师预计,到今年年底,该指数将较当前水平上涨 11% 以上。相对于华尔街的普遍观点,这甚至不是一个激进的预测。FactSet 追踪的公司的平均看涨期权预计该指数将达到 4,400 美元。</blockquote></p><p> But the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.</p><p><blockquote>但这种乐观情绪确实有其价值。“瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)首席美国股票策略师乔纳森-戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)在一份报告中写道:”随着经济重新开放、刺激措施充足以及美联储政策超级宽松,2021 年的 GDP 预计将比过去 35 年来的任何时候都更热也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> He argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.</p><p><blockquote>他认为,由于标普500公司第四季度的每股收益总额超过了分析师的预测 17%,而且绝大多数公司都已经公布了业绩,因此盈利预期必须上调。</blockquote></p><p> Higher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>更高的盈利预期通常会导致股票价格更高。Golub 将标普500每股收益的宏观预期从 2021 年的 175 美元上调至 185 美元,从 2022 年的 200 美元上调至 210 美元。</blockquote></p><p> At first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.</p><p><blockquote>起初,投资者似乎并不在意公司将第四季度盈利预期降低。结果并不重要,理由是,如果 Covid-19 疫苗不能如期推出,或者不能充分抵御新毒株,当地经济就无法重新开放,收入也会暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> But now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day and trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>但现在, 疫苗每天都能找到数百万件武器和数万亿美元的额外财政刺激,这将支持预期的需求。本季度的盈利预期低于几周前第四季度的预期结果,因此随着与 Covid-19 相关的限制解除,华尔街上调盈利预期也就不足为奇了。策略师目前平均预计标普500 2022 年每股收益为 198 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.</p><p><blockquote>下一个问题是标普500上平均股票的每股收益可能是多少倍。Golub 预计,到今年年底,该指数的交易价格将略高于 2022 年总收益的 20 倍。这比目前未来 12 个月盈利预期低约 22 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Lower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍预计估值会下降,因为安全的美国国债收益率正在上升。更高的收益率使得投资股票的风险逐渐变得不那么有吸引力,从而减少了投资者愿意为未来每美元收益支付的金额。</blockquote></p><p> But the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.</p><p><blockquote>但利率上升也反映了对经济和通胀预期的改善,这与更好的盈利是一致的,这可能会推动股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> None of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不意味着没有风险。疫苗接种的任何重大挫折都将不利于盈利,而美联储过快、过高加息的决定将对经济和股票估值构成风险。</blockquote></p><p> Still, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此,风险正在消退。随着股票在当前的抛售中面临压力,上涨的潜力可能会增加。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-can-keep-rising-credit-suisse-says-thank-earnings-51614109642?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-can-keep-rising-credit-suisse-says-thank-earnings-51614109642?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111682954","content_text":"Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current levels.\nCredit Suisseraised its 2021 price target for the S&P 500to $4,300 from $4,200 on Tuesday. That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.\nBut the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.\nHe argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.\nHigher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.\nAt first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.\nBut now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day and trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.\nThe next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.\nLower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.\nBut the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.\nNone of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.\nStill, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363500661,"gmtCreate":1614147811653,"gmtModify":1634550980351,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Lmao wot is this guy serious","listText":"Lmao wot is this guy serious","text":"Lmao wot is this guy serious","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363500661","repostId":"1191237890","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}