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- coolstuffcoolstuff
  ·2022-01-14
  wow ! Thanks Tiger!
  2,817 评论
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- coolstuffcoolstuff
  ·2021-12-28
  if u believe motley fool then u are fool!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- coolstuffcoolstuff
  ·2021-12-11
  good!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- coolstuffcoolstuff
  ·2021-11-03
  ok.. then?
  Palantir: Risk-Reward Is Not In Your Favor For The Long Run<blockquote>Palantir：从长远来看，风险回报对你不利</blockquote>
  Summary In this article, I speculate on what questions you should ask yourself before buying PLTR s
  Palantir: Risk-Reward Is Not In Your Favor For The Long Run<blockquote>Palantir：从长远来看，风险回报对你不利</blockquote>
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- coolstuffcoolstuff
  ·2021-09-30
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$oh no! pls like!
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- coolstuffcoolstuff
  ·2021-09-24
  buy the dip!
  What's Going On With Palantir Stock Today?<blockquote>Palantir 股票今天走势如何？</blockquote>
  Shares of Palantir Technologies Inc. are trading about 1.46% lower in early pre-market on Friday, in
  What's Going On With Palantir Stock Today?<blockquote>Palantir 股票今天走势如何？</blockquote>
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- coolstuffcoolstuff
  ·2021-09-10
  $Creative Medical Technology Holdings, Inc.(CELZ)$why keep dropping? any news?
  3,396 评论
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- coolstuffcoolstuff
  ·2021-09-10
  $SOS Limited(SOS)$huat ar!
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- coolstuffcoolstuff
  ·2021-09-08
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Dunno should I average up :(
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- coolstuffcoolstuff
  ·2021-09-08
  $Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$Woohoo! pls fly even higher!
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! Thanks Tiger!","listText":"wow ! Thanks Tiger!","text":"wow ! Thanks Tiger!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55ae4468f0b208cdeca8406871a19ab1","width":"1600","height":"1653"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697025905","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696850814,"gmtCreate":1640667874911,"gmtModify":1640668290076,"author":{"id":"3575813982420697","authorId":"3575813982420697","name":"coolstuff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59416cd904d3254185c947646f5920b9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575813982420697","authorIdStr":"3575813982420697"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"if u believe motley fool then u are fool!","listText":"if u believe motley fool then u are fool!","text":"if u believe motley fool then u are fool!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696850814","repostId":"2194770109","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605511508,"gmtCreate":1639189636806,"gmtModify":1639190163411,"author":{"id":"3575813982420697","authorId":"3575813982420697","name":"coolstuff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59416cd904d3254185c947646f5920b9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575813982420697","authorIdStr":"3575813982420697"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good!","listText":"good!","text":"good!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605511508","repostId":"2190767366","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841708664,"gmtCreate":1635940083410,"gmtModify":1635940083537,"author":{"id":"3575813982420697","authorId":"3575813982420697","name":"coolstuff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59416cd904d3254185c947646f5920b9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575813982420697","authorIdStr":"3575813982420697"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok.. then?","listText":"ok.. then?","text":"ok.. then?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841708664","repostId":"1122423591","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122423591","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635939195,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1122423591?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-03 19:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Risk-Reward Is Not In Your Favor For The Long Run<blockquote>Palantir：从长远来看，风险回报对你不利</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122423591","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn this article, I speculate on what questions you should ask yourself before buying PLTR s","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In this article, I speculate on what questions you should ask yourself before buying PLTR stock.</li>  <li>Even if we think of the company as a technology startup, its revenue growth does not seem to be financially healthy - follow the Rule of 40.</li>  <li>PLTR's business model says we can value the company by SOTP - but even if we include revenue growth rates in our model, the stock turns out to be grossly overvalued.</li>  <li>The behavior of Karp and his team suggests that Palantir is something of a \"cash cow\". And bulls always buy whatever management systematically dumps in the market.</li>  <li>Ultimately, the risk/reward ratio is not on the side of long-term investors - so I would not recommend buying the stock as long as it is managed the way it is managed now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88fe7a9cdcd414bb8031885b7829cc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在本文中，我推测在购买 PLTR 股票之前您应该问自己哪些问题。</li><li>即使我们认为该公司是一家科技初创公司，其收入增长在财务上似乎也不健康——遵循 40 法则。</li><li>PLTR 的商业模式表明，我们可以通过 SOTP 对该公司进行估值，但即使我们在模型中包含收入增长率，该股票也被严重高估。</li><li>卡普和他的团队的行为表明，Palantir是一种“摇钱树”。多头总是购买管理层在市场上系统性抛售的任何东西。</li><li>最终，风险/回报比并不站在长期投资者一边 - 因此，只要以现在的方式管理该股票，我就不建议购买该股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德鲁·安格勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's (PLTR) 10-Q report is just around the corner and the bulls are frozen in anticipation of strong quarterly results that will finally allow the stock to come off the flat price channel and rise. I do not doubt that the results will be really strong - the company is good at inking new contracts and growing revenue at a rapid pace. I think Q3 revenue growth will be more than 30%, which is what Karp is promising/targeting.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 的 10 季度报告即将发布，多头因预期强劲的季度业绩而冻结，这将最终使该股摆脱持平价格通道并上涨。我毫不怀疑业绩会非常强劲——该公司擅长签订新合同并快速增加收入。我认为第三季度收入增长将超过30%，这是卡普的承诺/目标。</blockquote></p><p> For most long-term investors, however, it would be more important to look not just at short-term catalysts, but at the quality of the company's business model. The stock is quite expensive, and you need to be sure you are acting wisely if you are spending 30 times sales on an unprofitable company today.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于大多数长期投资者来说，更重要的是不仅要关注短期催化剂，还要关注公司商业模式的质量。股票相当昂贵，如果你今天在一家无利可图的公司上花费了30倍的销售额，你需要确保你的行为是明智的。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I will speculate on what questions you should ask yourself before buying PLTR stock. I'll answer these questions by stating my opinion and referencing other sources, and you can answer them yourself (or in the comments for everyone to see).</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将推测您在购买 PLTR 股票之前应该问自己哪些问题。我会通过陈述我的观点和参考其他来源来回答这些问题，你可以自己回答（或者在评论里给大家看）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Question #1: What kind of company is Palantir?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>问题1：Palantir是一家什么样的公司？</b></blockquote></p><p> Let us approach the answer to this question in a very matter-of-fact way, without unnecessary grandstanding (as some bulls have done in the comments under my first article). Palantir was founded in 2003 (that's 18 years ago) and is a data analytics, data consulting, and software company that works primarily for various U.S. defense departments. Here is a list of the top 10 departments and contracting agencies:</p><p><blockquote>让我们以一种非常实事求是的方式来回答这个问题，没有不必要的哗众取宠（就像一些多头在我第一篇文章下的评论中所做的那样）。Palantir成立于2003年（18年前），是一家数据分析、数据咨询和软件公司，主要为美国各个国防部门工作。以下是前10名部门和签约机构的名单：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11a0e8a0f6d34762a14026cc90dedd60\" tg-width=\"260\" tg-height=\"287\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FPDS.gov</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：FPDS.gov</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But beyond serving the army, the company is trying to commercialize its services - to tap a wider market, recognizing that GovTech's projected growth&nbsp;of 9.35%&nbsp;(CAGR) over the next few years will not be enough to justify the promised 30% sales growth.As Steven Fiorillo correctly noted in&nbsp;his recent article&nbsp;on PLTR, \"the Amazon and IBM partnerships are just getting started.\" Personally, I do not doubt that Palantir will grow in its commercial side - the only question is how qualitatively and fast it's going to do it.</p><p><blockquote>但除了为军队服务之外，该公司还试图将其服务商业化——以开拓更广阔的市场，因为它认识到 GovTech 预计未来几年 9.35% (CAGR) 的增长率不足以证明承诺的 30% 销售增长是合理的。正如 Steven Fiorillo 在最近关于 PLTR 的文章中正确指出的那样，“亚马逊和 IBM 的合作才刚刚开始。”就我个人而言，我毫不怀疑 Palantir 将在商业方面实现增长 - 唯一的问题是它将如何高质量和快速地实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p> Even though the company is 18 years old, the bulls justify the increasing equity deficit by saying that PLTR needs to act like a startup to expand the market as much as possible. Okay, so be it. Then let us speak in the language of venture capitalists:</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司已有 18 年的历史，但多头认为 PLTR 需要像一家初创公司一样行事，以尽可能扩大市场，从而为不断增加的股权赤字辩护。好吧，那就这样吧。那我们就用风险投资家的语言来说说：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   If you want to double your top line revenue, you need to invest twice as much in your infrastructure. So today, you’ll double your expenses but your revenue may not increase for another 24 months. Now you’re carrying the cost of growth. The trick is to balance the two. How do you invest profitability and continue to grow?    Well, venture capitalists have a simple yet consistent way to chasing growth. The Rule of 40. Here’s how you can do the same thing.    The Rule of 40 provides a high-level view of a business’ health. Put simply, if your percentages of growth rate and profit margin total at least 40 when added together, then your business is in great health and could double in valuation.    The rule simple formula is:    Rule of 40 Ratio = Growth rate + Profit    You can measure growth in different ways but the easiest one is probably just do YoY (year-over-year) on MRR (monthly recurring revenue) growth.    Most businesses will follow this rule in the early stages when they need funding. This becomes less important as you begin to scale and achieve consistent profitability.    Source:Quora, Vijar Kohli, Financier at Golden Door  Since Palantir is not yet reaching \"consistent profitability\", we need to look at it like an early/mid-stage startup - in which case the Rule of 40 is the best we can do to assess the quality of its business growth. Palantir has been a publicly-traded company for a little over a year, so I will measure the \"Growth rate\" as quarter-to-quarter (QoQ) sales growth and the \"Income\" as net income margins over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>如果你想让你的收入翻一番，你需要在基础设施上投资两倍。因此，今天，您的开支将翻倍，但您的收入可能在未来 24 个月内不会增加。现在你要承担成长的成本。诀窍是平衡两者。如何投资盈利并持续增长？嗯，风险投资家有一个简单而一致的追求增长的方法。40法则。以下是您如何做同样的事情。40 法则提供了企业健康状况的高层次视角。简而言之，如果你的增长率和利润率百分比加起来至少为40%，那么你的企业就非常健康，估值可能会翻倍。简单的规则公式是：40比率=增长率+利润法则你可以用不同的方法来衡量增长，但最简单的方法可能是对MRR（每月经常性收入）增长进行同比（同比）。大多数企业在需要资金的早期阶段都会遵循这一规则。随着你开始扩大规模并实现持续的盈利能力，这一点就变得不那么重要了。资料来源：Quora，Vijar Kohli，Golden Door 金融家 由于 Palantir 尚未达到“持续盈利”，我们需要将其视为早期/中期初创公司 - 在这种情况下，40 法则是我们可以做的最好的评估其业务增长的质量。Palantir 成为一家上市公司已经一年多了，因此我将“增长率”衡量为季度 (QoQ) 销售增长，“收入”衡量为同期净利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/554d7d3b91d2cc6ac034dc94bc390e0b\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha's data, author's calculation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha的数据，作者计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even in terms of one of the key growth metrics for a fast-growing startup, Palantir is pretty weak in terms of financial health. That's why the company always feels the need for additional funding, which it gets at the expense of you, bulls (more on that later).</p><p><blockquote>即使就快速增长的初创公司的关键增长指标之一而言，Palantir 在财务健康状况方面也相当薄弱。这就是为什么公司总是觉得需要额外的资金，而这是以牺牲你们这些多头的利益为代价的（稍后会详细介绍）。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, it is obvious that this metric has halved in 2 years (from June 2019), but the net profit margin seemed to have returned to its comfortable negative zone after the acute phase of the pandemic and will most likely remain in the same place when we look at the Q3 results.</p><p><blockquote>是的，很明显，这一指标在两年内（从2019年6月开始）减半，但在大流行的急性阶段之后，净利润率似乎已经回到了舒适的负值区域，并且很可能会保持在同一位置当我们查看第三季度结果时。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0097c424d4f91fa0ef40a8f5b1bcf056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha's data, author's calculation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha的数据，作者计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This should give pause for thought to those who consider Palantir a startup (albeit so old). However, I propose to return to the discussion on the main question - what kind of company is Palantir. Is it an IT defense consulting company, a data analytics company, or a combination of both?</p><p><blockquote>这应该会让那些认为Palantir是一家初创公司的人停下来思考（尽管已经很老了）。然而，我建议回到主要问题的讨论——Palantir是一家什么样的公司。是IT国防咨询公司、数据分析公司，还是两者兼而有之？</blockquote></p><p> You probably replied that it was a combination of both - that is logical because it follows from the last quarterly report and revenue breakdown:</p><p><blockquote>您可能会回答说这是两者的结合 - 这是合乎逻辑的，因为它来自上一季度报告和收入明细：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f40ac70349713588cf57b42d186d0a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"102\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: PLTR's 2Q report, author's calculations</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PLTR 第二季度报告，作者计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Then we know how to value the company - through the growth and structure of its revenue. The Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation model suits here perfectly - Palantir in this case has plenty of peers for comparison.</p><p><blockquote>然后我们知道如何对公司进行估值——通过其收入的增长和结构。零件总和（SOTP）估值模型非常适合这里——在这种情况下，Palantir有很多同行可供比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e7eb7c3722f225847d1dffb622a9056\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a00b9027b66ce5b96383dc4329b50a7\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dac7bf41404ba48620350f74ef3113b\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"494\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's calculation (based on SA's data)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算（基于SA的数据）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of course, the SOTP results have proven to be overly conservative, primarily because some peers are at a completely different stage in their business development (particularly in the \"Government\" segment). However, this gives us an understanding of how overvalued the company is - even with the promised growth of &gt;30% over the long term, the current multiples are too high. The company is valued as if it will definitely realize itself in the \"Commercial\" segment - even though it is obvious that it has someone to rival it in terms of growth in this segment.</p><p><blockquote>当然，SOTP 的结果已被证明过于保守，主要是因为一些同行的业务发展处于完全不同的阶段（特别是在“政府”领域）。然而，这让我们了解了该公司的估值有多高——即使承诺的长期增长超过30%，目前的倍数也太高了。该公司的估值就好像它肯定会在“商业”领域实现自己——尽管很明显，就该领域的增长而言，它有人可以与之匹敌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What is my preliminary conclusion from the above? I answer the question posed as follows: Palantir is a fast-growing company, but with vague prospects of breaking even (in terms of net earnings) - even if we think of the company as a technology startup, its revenue growth does not bring any value to shareholders since it's non-qualitative. The company's business model suggests that it can be valued by SOTP - but even if we include revenue growth rates in the valuation model, the stock turns out to be grossly overvalued - no synergy between the two segments or continuation of \"low-grade\" revenue growth can justify this.</p><p><blockquote>从上面我的初步结论是什么？我对提出的问题的回答如下：Palantir 是一家快速发展的公司，但收支平衡的前景（就净利润而言）尚不明确——即使我们将该公司视为一家科技初创公司，其收入增长也不会给股东带来任何价值，因为它是非定性的。该公司的商业模式表明它可以由 SOTP 进行估值 - 但即使我们将收入增长率纳入估值模型，该股票也被严重高估 - 两个部门之间没有协同效应或“低级”收入增长的延续可以证明这一点是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Question #2: How much do Mr. Karp and others deserve?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>问题2：卡普先生和其他人应该得到多少？</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Bloomberg, Alexander Karp was among the top-10 highest-paid CEOs and executives in 2020:</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，亚历山大·卡普 (Alexander Karp) 是 2020 年收入最高的 10 位首席执行官和高管之一：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00972645978c0a77683a6c288537d102\" tg-width=\"334\" tg-height=\"537\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I suggest that we look at how \"qualitatively\" these companies have grown over the last 12 months (TTM or 2021 vs. 2020). Since individual representatives of the sample are unprofitable (like Palantir itself), I will use the same metric as in the analysis above - the Rule of 40.</p><p><blockquote>我建议我们看看这些公司在过去12个月中的“定性”增长情况（TTM或2021年与2020年）。由于样本中的个体代表是无利可图的（就像Palantir本身一样），我将使用与上面分析中相同的指标——40法则。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627baf8461a22f238c8071fed1982110\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"153\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg's and SA's data, author's calculations</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社和南非的数据，作者的计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Author's note:</b>Sales growth rates are calculated based on the last quarterly data available. But even if PLTR shows 40-45% YoY sales growth in Q3, the company will be an outsider in terms of this particular metric.</p><p><blockquote><b>作者注：</b>销售增长率是根据可用的最后一个季度数据计算的。但即使 PLTR 第三季度销售额同比增长 40-45%，就这一特定指标而言，该公司仍将是局外人。</blockquote></p><p> Do not get me wrong - I do not object to a CEO/founder of a company making a lot of money - that's the company's raison d'être. But I am against it constantly being done at the expense of the shareholders - they have already paid you money for your company, why make them pay even more if what they paid for is not going to be profitable anytime soon?</p><p><blockquote>不要误会我的意思——我不反对一家公司的首席执行官/创始人赚很多钱——这是公司存在的理由。但我反对不断以股东为代价来做这件事——他们已经为你的公司付钱了，如果他们付出的代价不会很快盈利，为什么要让他们付出更多呢？</blockquote></p><p> Yes, Karp does not receive a salary, but he instantly sells everything he receives, splitting up and selling his options in different tranches to get the most favorable average selling price.I honestly do not understand the current compensation policy. In my opinion, the CEO, the founder of the company, should be trying with all his might to bring his company to the top -all I can see today is the constant dilution and the lack of profitability over the 18 years of the company's existence.</p><p><blockquote>是的，卡普没有工资，但他立即卖掉了他收到的所有东西，将他的期权分成不同的批次出售，以获得最优惠的平均售价。老实说，我不明白目前的薪酬政策。在我看来，首席执行官，公司的创始人，应该竭尽全力将他的公司带到顶峰——我今天所能看到的只是公司成立18年来不断稀释和缺乏盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> But the bulls, apparently do not care - anyway, now and then I read the excuses as to why Karp makes nearly $370 million a year while the net profit margin is more than 95% (of revenues), only with minus sign in from of it.</p><p><blockquote>但多头显然不在乎——无论如何，我时不时会读到卡普年收入近3.7亿美元的借口，而净利润率超过95%（收入），只是减去了其中的登录。</blockquote></p><p> Without straying too far off-topic, I propose to investigate how much and how often Karp sold his options off the market. I collected this data from the official SEC's \"Forms 4\" and tried to visualize it.</p><p><blockquote>在不跑题太远的情况下，我建议调查一下卡普在市场上出售期权的数量和频率。我从SEC官方的“表格4”中收集了这些数据，并试图将其可视化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e8cdeece714c7ccfd9c5fb48e1bd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from Openinsider.com, author's calculations &amp; visuals</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自 Openinsider.com、作者的计算和视觉效果</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see, Karp slowed down sometime after the IPO and the stock price went up. When it fell sharply (March 2021), he sold even less. Since then, the price has hovered between $26 and $23 per share. Throughout this time, Karp has been selling regularly and in almost identical amounts to whatever price he gets from the market - otherwise, the options expire. That makes sense, but why are there so many options (more than from November 2020 to March 2021)? The volume of selling now is about the same as we saw in October 2020 - when the average realized price was $9.41/share - 63.64% below the current price, which is about the \"fair price\" we saw when calculating the SOTP.Interestingly,David A. Glazer&nbsp;(CFO and Treasurer) and&nbsp;Ryan D. Taylor&nbsp;(Chief Legal and Business Affairs Officer) also sold systematically, and when the share was worth significantly lower than it is now. The President and Secretary of Palantir,Stephen Andrew Cohen, always sells whatever he gets - every single time.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，Karp 在 IPO 后的某个时候放缓，股价上涨。当它大幅下跌时（2021年3月），他卖得更少。此后，价格一直徘徊在每股26美元至23美元之间。在这段时间里，卡普一直定期出售，而且无论他从市场上获得什么价格，出售的数量都几乎相同——否则，期权就会到期。这很有道理，但为什么有这么多选择（超过2020年11月至2021年3月）？现在的销售量与我们在 2020 年 10 月看到的大致相同——当时平均实现价格为 9.41 美元/股——比当前价格低 63.64%，这大约是我们在计算 SOTP 时看到的“公平价格”。有趣的是，David A. Glazer（首席财务官兼财务主管）和 Ryan D. Taylor（首席法律和商业事务官）也系统地出售股票，当时股票价值明显低于现在。Palantir 的总裁兼秘书斯蒂芬·安德鲁·科恩 (Stephen Andrew Cohen) 总是出售他得到的任何东西——每一次。</blockquote></p><p> Many bulls hope that SBC will be discontinued once the company can cover its costs through operating activities. But exactly when that will happen, no one can say. And the signs do not suggest that it will happen soon. Until then, enjoy the dilution and the price that will most likely return to the flat channel a few days after the November 11 report release.</p><p><blockquote>许多看涨者希望，一旦该公司能够通过运营活动收回成本，SBC 就会停产。但具体什么时候会发生，没有人能说。种种迹象表明这种情况不会很快发生。在此之前，请享受稀释和价格，该价格很可能在 11 月 11 日报告发布后几天回到平坦通道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Question #3: Is competition really going to be fierce in the foreseeable future?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>问题3：在可预见的未来，竞争真的会很激烈吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yes, it is. We must realize that the company will not long grow solely on budgetary money - hence the commercialization of the business is inevitable. Then Palantir will face (already faces) a fierce battle for a place in the sun. The competition's pressure is evident even from the growth of the company's revenue in the \"Commercial\" segment - an increase of just 28% although the whole company is valued at 36 times EV/revenue (TTM).</p><p><blockquote>是的，是的。我们必须认识到，公司不会长期仅仅依靠预算资金发展——因此业务的商业化是不可避免的。然后Palantir将面临（已经面临）一场争夺阳光下一席之地的激烈战斗。竞争的压力甚至从该公司在“商业”领域的收入增长中也显而易见——尽管整个公司的估值是电动汽车/收入（TTM）的36倍，但仅增长了28%。</blockquote></p><p> In my earlier articles on PLTR, I talked about the difficulties the company faces when it wants to bring its product to the broader market. I do not think even partnering with AWS will change things significantly - theETL processesthe company is helping to set up are not anything innovative that anyone but PLTR can do.</p><p><blockquote>在我之前关于 PLTR 的文章中，我谈到了该公司想要将其产品推向更广泛的市场时所面临的困难。我认为即使与 AWS 合作也不会显着改变事情——该公司正在帮助建立的 ETL 流程并不是除了 PLTR 之外任何人都可以做的任何创新。</blockquote></p><p> If Palantir is targeting data consulting, then a logical question arises: \"Why should I pay a tech company to solve my company's problem when there are some well-known consulting firms (the Big 3) whose business experience will help me more?\" (BCG, for example, has a separate division dedicated to analyzing data and running all kinds of machine/statistical learning models in production - this division is called&nbsp;BCG Gamma).I believe customization will be a major pain point for Palantir for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>如果Palantir的目标是数据咨询，那么一个合乎逻辑的问题就出现了：“当有一些知名的咨询公司（三巨头）的商业经验会给我更多帮助时，我为什么要付钱给一家科技公司来解决我公司的问题呢？”（例如，BCG 有一个单独的部门专门分析数据并在生产中运行各种机器/统计学习模型 - 这个部门被称为 BCG Gamma）。我相信在可预见的未来，定制将是 Palantir 的一大痛点。</blockquote></p><p> It seems that the effects of competition combined with the constant dilution of share ownership are not just worrying me - the hedge funds' faith in the company has also begun to wane:</p><p><blockquote>看来，竞争加上股权不断稀释的影响不仅仅让我担心——对冲基金对该公司的信心也开始减弱：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d13784c0d5193f12f723dd56b01086\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：雅虎财经</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bottom Line</p><p><blockquote>底线</blockquote></p><p> The company's quarterly report is just around the corner, and many have high hopes for it. I am not saying the report will be weak - if you are a bull, you'll find in it what excites you first - good revenue growth, maybe 40-45%, who knows. That may undoubtedly drive prices up for a while and catapult the stock out of its current flat price channel.</p><p><blockquote>公司一季报即将发布，不少人对此寄予厚望。我并不是说这份报告会很弱——如果你是一个多头，你会在其中找到首先让你兴奋的东西——良好的收入增长，也许40-45%，谁知道呢。这无疑可能会推高价格一段时间，并使该股脱离当前的平价通道。</blockquote></p><p> However, this will not change the whole picture. Bulls say that bears are complaining about the same things (SBC, competition, etc.) - yes, but to all questions, bears receive either emotional outbursts about how the company will change the world (due to innovation, which simply does not exist) or naive ideas as separately taken problems can be solved just by themselves.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这不会改变整个画面。多头说空头在抱怨同样的事情（SBC、竞争等）。）-是的，但对于所有问题，空头要么会收到关于公司将如何改变世界的情绪爆发（由于创新，创新根本不存在），要么会收到天真的想法，因为单独处理的问题可以自己解决。</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, the position of the bears is closer to me. I am not questioning the company's product - yes, it may be really good. But it's hardly much better than what's already on the market (specifically in the \"Commercial\" segment). Management is not doing enough, in my opinion, to make the company profitable and stop shareholder dilution - that's the most important warning sign for any long-term investor. The behavior of Karp and his team suggests that Palantir is something of a \"cash cow\" - more specifically, its shareholders, who tirelessly justify everything that happens with the \"above-30%-long-term-growth\" promises (even the hulking IT giants showed much greater revenue growth compared to Palantir).</p><p><blockquote>目前，空头的位置离我更近。我不是在质疑公司的产品——是的，它可能真的很好。但它并不比市场上已有的产品好多少（特别是在“商业”领域）。在我看来，管理层在使公司盈利和停止股东稀释方面做得不够——这对任何长期投资者来说都是最重要的警告信号。卡普和他的团队的行为表明，Palantir 是一头“摇钱树”——更具体地说，是它的股东，他们不知疲倦地用“超过 30% 的长期增长”的承诺来证明发生的一切（即使是庞大的 IT 巨头也显示出比 Palantir 更大的收入增长）。</blockquote></p><p> In the short term, the stock is likely to respond with a strong upward move on the back of justified earnings forecasts. However, recent insider trades suggest that net profit margins (or more accurately, losses) will not significantly improve - again, revenue growth will not do any good. Such an expansion strategy carries serious risks - if the company falters at some point, the market will not forgive it, given how long shareholders have endured \"the value erosion\".</p><p><blockquote>短期内，在合理的盈利预测的支持下，该股可能会强劲上涨。然而，最近的内幕交易表明，净利润率（或者更准确地说，亏损）不会显着改善——同样，收入增长不会有任何好处。这样的扩张战略存在严重的风险——如果公司在某个时候摇摇欲坠，考虑到股东已经忍受了“价值侵蚀”这么久，市场不会原谅它。</blockquote></p><p> In the long run, I believe that unless SBC stops, the stock will remain in its flat state, as I showed in my previous article with other tech companies with \"promising prospects\". Ultimately, the risk/reward ratio is not on the side of long-term investors - at the very least, you need to wait for clear action from management to bring the company to profitability (it would be high time, after 18 years of existence).</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，我相信除非 SBC 停止，否则该股将保持持平状态，正如我在之前关于其他具有“前景光明”的科技公司的文章中所展示的那样。最终，风险/回报比并不站在长期投资者一边——至少，你需要等待管理层的明确行动，让公司实现盈利（在存在18年后，这将是一个很好的时间）。</blockquote></p><p> You may, of course, think otherwise. If I were tasked with expanding my audience, I would only ever write good things about PLTR, because even among Seeking Alpha users, most people only expect positive things from the company(therefore, they are looking for confirmation of their belief in different articles). However, I have decided to periodically remind you of the risks you take when buying PLTR in light of everything that is going on around the company. In my opinion, diversity of opinion and awareness of all risks is the key to rational investment decisions in the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>当然，你可能不这么认为。如果我的任务是扩大我的受众，我只会写关于PLTR的好东西，因为即使在寻求Alpha用户中，大多数人也只期望从公司得到积极的东西（因此，他们在不同的文章中寻找他们信念的确认）。然而，鉴于公司周围发生的一切，我决定定期提醒您购买 PLTR 时所承担的风险。在我看来，意见的多样性和对所有风险的认识是股票市场理性投资决策的关键。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Risk-Reward Is Not In Your Favor For The Long Run<blockquote>Palantir：从长远来看，风险回报对你不利</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Risk-Reward Is Not In Your Favor For The Long Run<blockquote>Palantir：从长远来看，风险回报对你不利</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-03 19:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In this article, I speculate on what questions you should ask yourself before buying PLTR stock.</li>  <li>Even if we think of the company as a technology startup, its revenue growth does not seem to be financially healthy - follow the Rule of 40.</li>  <li>PLTR's business model says we can value the company by SOTP - but even if we include revenue growth rates in our model, the stock turns out to be grossly overvalued.</li>  <li>The behavior of Karp and his team suggests that Palantir is something of a \"cash cow\". And bulls always buy whatever management systematically dumps in the market.</li>  <li>Ultimately, the risk/reward ratio is not on the side of long-term investors - so I would not recommend buying the stock as long as it is managed the way it is managed now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88fe7a9cdcd414bb8031885b7829cc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在本文中，我推测在购买 PLTR 股票之前您应该问自己哪些问题。</li><li>即使我们认为该公司是一家科技初创公司，其收入增长在财务上似乎也不健康——遵循 40 法则。</li><li>PLTR 的商业模式表明，我们可以通过 SOTP 对该公司进行估值，但即使我们在模型中包含收入增长率，该股票也被严重高估。</li><li>卡普和他的团队的行为表明，Palantir是一种“摇钱树”。多头总是购买管理层在市场上系统性抛售的任何东西。</li><li>最终，风险/回报比并不站在长期投资者一边 - 因此，只要以现在的方式管理该股票，我就不建议购买该股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德鲁·安格勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's (PLTR) 10-Q report is just around the corner and the bulls are frozen in anticipation of strong quarterly results that will finally allow the stock to come off the flat price channel and rise. I do not doubt that the results will be really strong - the company is good at inking new contracts and growing revenue at a rapid pace. I think Q3 revenue growth will be more than 30%, which is what Karp is promising/targeting.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 的 10 季度报告即将发布，多头因预期强劲的季度业绩而冻结，这将最终使该股摆脱持平价格通道并上涨。我毫不怀疑业绩会非常强劲——该公司擅长签订新合同并快速增加收入。我认为第三季度收入增长将超过30%，这是卡普的承诺/目标。</blockquote></p><p> For most long-term investors, however, it would be more important to look not just at short-term catalysts, but at the quality of the company's business model. The stock is quite expensive, and you need to be sure you are acting wisely if you are spending 30 times sales on an unprofitable company today.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于大多数长期投资者来说，更重要的是不仅要关注短期催化剂，还要关注公司商业模式的质量。股票相当昂贵，如果你今天在一家无利可图的公司上花费了30倍的销售额，你需要确保你的行为是明智的。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I will speculate on what questions you should ask yourself before buying PLTR stock. I'll answer these questions by stating my opinion and referencing other sources, and you can answer them yourself (or in the comments for everyone to see).</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将推测您在购买 PLTR 股票之前应该问自己哪些问题。我会通过陈述我的观点和参考其他来源来回答这些问题，你可以自己回答（或者在评论里给大家看）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Question #1: What kind of company is Palantir?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>问题1：Palantir是一家什么样的公司？</b></blockquote></p><p> Let us approach the answer to this question in a very matter-of-fact way, without unnecessary grandstanding (as some bulls have done in the comments under my first article). Palantir was founded in 2003 (that's 18 years ago) and is a data analytics, data consulting, and software company that works primarily for various U.S. defense departments. Here is a list of the top 10 departments and contracting agencies:</p><p><blockquote>让我们以一种非常实事求是的方式来回答这个问题，没有不必要的哗众取宠（就像一些多头在我第一篇文章下的评论中所做的那样）。Palantir成立于2003年（18年前），是一家数据分析、数据咨询和软件公司，主要为美国各个国防部门工作。以下是前10名部门和签约机构的名单：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11a0e8a0f6d34762a14026cc90dedd60\" tg-width=\"260\" tg-height=\"287\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FPDS.gov</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：FPDS.gov</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But beyond serving the army, the company is trying to commercialize its services - to tap a wider market, recognizing that GovTech's projected growth&nbsp;of 9.35%&nbsp;(CAGR) over the next few years will not be enough to justify the promised 30% sales growth.As Steven Fiorillo correctly noted in&nbsp;his recent article&nbsp;on PLTR, \"the Amazon and IBM partnerships are just getting started.\" Personally, I do not doubt that Palantir will grow in its commercial side - the only question is how qualitatively and fast it's going to do it.</p><p><blockquote>但除了为军队服务之外，该公司还试图将其服务商业化——以开拓更广阔的市场，因为它认识到 GovTech 预计未来几年 9.35% (CAGR) 的增长率不足以证明承诺的 30% 销售增长是合理的。正如 Steven Fiorillo 在最近关于 PLTR 的文章中正确指出的那样，“亚马逊和 IBM 的合作才刚刚开始。”就我个人而言，我毫不怀疑 Palantir 将在商业方面实现增长 - 唯一的问题是它将如何高质量和快速地实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p> Even though the company is 18 years old, the bulls justify the increasing equity deficit by saying that PLTR needs to act like a startup to expand the market as much as possible. Okay, so be it. Then let us speak in the language of venture capitalists:</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司已有 18 年的历史，但多头认为 PLTR 需要像一家初创公司一样行事，以尽可能扩大市场，从而为不断增加的股权赤字辩护。好吧，那就这样吧。那我们就用风险投资家的语言来说说：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   If you want to double your top line revenue, you need to invest twice as much in your infrastructure. So today, you’ll double your expenses but your revenue may not increase for another 24 months. Now you’re carrying the cost of growth. The trick is to balance the two. How do you invest profitability and continue to grow?    Well, venture capitalists have a simple yet consistent way to chasing growth. The Rule of 40. Here’s how you can do the same thing.    The Rule of 40 provides a high-level view of a business’ health. Put simply, if your percentages of growth rate and profit margin total at least 40 when added together, then your business is in great health and could double in valuation.    The rule simple formula is:    Rule of 40 Ratio = Growth rate + Profit    You can measure growth in different ways but the easiest one is probably just do YoY (year-over-year) on MRR (monthly recurring revenue) growth.    Most businesses will follow this rule in the early stages when they need funding. This becomes less important as you begin to scale and achieve consistent profitability.    Source:Quora, Vijar Kohli, Financier at Golden Door  Since Palantir is not yet reaching \"consistent profitability\", we need to look at it like an early/mid-stage startup - in which case the Rule of 40 is the best we can do to assess the quality of its business growth. Palantir has been a publicly-traded company for a little over a year, so I will measure the \"Growth rate\" as quarter-to-quarter (QoQ) sales growth and the \"Income\" as net income margins over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>如果你想让你的收入翻一番，你需要在基础设施上投资两倍。因此，今天，您的开支将翻倍，但您的收入可能在未来 24 个月内不会增加。现在你要承担成长的成本。诀窍是平衡两者。如何投资盈利并持续增长？嗯，风险投资家有一个简单而一致的追求增长的方法。40法则。以下是您如何做同样的事情。40 法则提供了企业健康状况的高层次视角。简而言之，如果你的增长率和利润率百分比加起来至少为40%，那么你的企业就非常健康，估值可能会翻倍。简单的规则公式是：40比率=增长率+利润法则你可以用不同的方法来衡量增长，但最简单的方法可能是对MRR（每月经常性收入）增长进行同比（同比）。大多数企业在需要资金的早期阶段都会遵循这一规则。随着你开始扩大规模并实现持续的盈利能力，这一点就变得不那么重要了。资料来源：Quora，Vijar Kohli，Golden Door 金融家 由于 Palantir 尚未达到“持续盈利”，我们需要将其视为早期/中期初创公司 - 在这种情况下，40 法则是我们可以做的最好的评估其业务增长的质量。Palantir 成为一家上市公司已经一年多了，因此我将“增长率”衡量为季度 (QoQ) 销售增长，“收入”衡量为同期净利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/554d7d3b91d2cc6ac034dc94bc390e0b\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha's data, author's calculation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha的数据，作者计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even in terms of one of the key growth metrics for a fast-growing startup, Palantir is pretty weak in terms of financial health. That's why the company always feels the need for additional funding, which it gets at the expense of you, bulls (more on that later).</p><p><blockquote>即使就快速增长的初创公司的关键增长指标之一而言，Palantir 在财务健康状况方面也相当薄弱。这就是为什么公司总是觉得需要额外的资金，而这是以牺牲你们这些多头的利益为代价的（稍后会详细介绍）。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, it is obvious that this metric has halved in 2 years (from June 2019), but the net profit margin seemed to have returned to its comfortable negative zone after the acute phase of the pandemic and will most likely remain in the same place when we look at the Q3 results.</p><p><blockquote>是的，很明显，这一指标在两年内（从2019年6月开始）减半，但在大流行的急性阶段之后，净利润率似乎已经回到了舒适的负值区域，并且很可能会保持在同一位置当我们查看第三季度结果时。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0097c424d4f91fa0ef40a8f5b1bcf056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha's data, author's calculation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha的数据，作者计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This should give pause for thought to those who consider Palantir a startup (albeit so old). However, I propose to return to the discussion on the main question - what kind of company is Palantir. Is it an IT defense consulting company, a data analytics company, or a combination of both?</p><p><blockquote>这应该会让那些认为Palantir是一家初创公司的人停下来思考（尽管已经很老了）。然而，我建议回到主要问题的讨论——Palantir是一家什么样的公司。是IT国防咨询公司、数据分析公司，还是两者兼而有之？</blockquote></p><p> You probably replied that it was a combination of both - that is logical because it follows from the last quarterly report and revenue breakdown:</p><p><blockquote>您可能会回答说这是两者的结合 - 这是合乎逻辑的，因为它来自上一季度报告和收入明细：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f40ac70349713588cf57b42d186d0a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"102\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: PLTR's 2Q report, author's calculations</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PLTR 第二季度报告，作者计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Then we know how to value the company - through the growth and structure of its revenue. The Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation model suits here perfectly - Palantir in this case has plenty of peers for comparison.</p><p><blockquote>然后我们知道如何对公司进行估值——通过其收入的增长和结构。零件总和（SOTP）估值模型非常适合这里——在这种情况下，Palantir有很多同行可供比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e7eb7c3722f225847d1dffb622a9056\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a00b9027b66ce5b96383dc4329b50a7\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dac7bf41404ba48620350f74ef3113b\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"494\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's calculation (based on SA's data)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算（基于SA的数据）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of course, the SOTP results have proven to be overly conservative, primarily because some peers are at a completely different stage in their business development (particularly in the \"Government\" segment). However, this gives us an understanding of how overvalued the company is - even with the promised growth of &gt;30% over the long term, the current multiples are too high. The company is valued as if it will definitely realize itself in the \"Commercial\" segment - even though it is obvious that it has someone to rival it in terms of growth in this segment.</p><p><blockquote>当然，SOTP 的结果已被证明过于保守，主要是因为一些同行的业务发展处于完全不同的阶段（特别是在“政府”领域）。然而，这让我们了解了该公司的估值有多高——即使承诺的长期增长超过30%，目前的倍数也太高了。该公司的估值就好像它肯定会在“商业”领域实现自己——尽管很明显，就该领域的增长而言，它有人可以与之匹敌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What is my preliminary conclusion from the above? I answer the question posed as follows: Palantir is a fast-growing company, but with vague prospects of breaking even (in terms of net earnings) - even if we think of the company as a technology startup, its revenue growth does not bring any value to shareholders since it's non-qualitative. The company's business model suggests that it can be valued by SOTP - but even if we include revenue growth rates in the valuation model, the stock turns out to be grossly overvalued - no synergy between the two segments or continuation of \"low-grade\" revenue growth can justify this.</p><p><blockquote>从上面我的初步结论是什么？我对提出的问题的回答如下：Palantir 是一家快速发展的公司，但收支平衡的前景（就净利润而言）尚不明确——即使我们将该公司视为一家科技初创公司，其收入增长也不会给股东带来任何价值，因为它是非定性的。该公司的商业模式表明它可以由 SOTP 进行估值 - 但即使我们将收入增长率纳入估值模型，该股票也被严重高估 - 两个部门之间没有协同效应或“低级”收入增长的延续可以证明这一点是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Question #2: How much do Mr. Karp and others deserve?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>问题2：卡普先生和其他人应该得到多少？</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Bloomberg, Alexander Karp was among the top-10 highest-paid CEOs and executives in 2020:</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，亚历山大·卡普 (Alexander Karp) 是 2020 年收入最高的 10 位首席执行官和高管之一：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00972645978c0a77683a6c288537d102\" tg-width=\"334\" tg-height=\"537\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I suggest that we look at how \"qualitatively\" these companies have grown over the last 12 months (TTM or 2021 vs. 2020). Since individual representatives of the sample are unprofitable (like Palantir itself), I will use the same metric as in the analysis above - the Rule of 40.</p><p><blockquote>我建议我们看看这些公司在过去12个月中的“定性”增长情况（TTM或2021年与2020年）。由于样本中的个体代表是无利可图的（就像Palantir本身一样），我将使用与上面分析中相同的指标——40法则。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627baf8461a22f238c8071fed1982110\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"153\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg's and SA's data, author's calculations</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社和南非的数据，作者的计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Author's note:</b>Sales growth rates are calculated based on the last quarterly data available. But even if PLTR shows 40-45% YoY sales growth in Q3, the company will be an outsider in terms of this particular metric.</p><p><blockquote><b>作者注：</b>销售增长率是根据可用的最后一个季度数据计算的。但即使 PLTR 第三季度销售额同比增长 40-45%，就这一特定指标而言，该公司仍将是局外人。</blockquote></p><p> Do not get me wrong - I do not object to a CEO/founder of a company making a lot of money - that's the company's raison d'être. But I am against it constantly being done at the expense of the shareholders - they have already paid you money for your company, why make them pay even more if what they paid for is not going to be profitable anytime soon?</p><p><blockquote>不要误会我的意思——我不反对一家公司的首席执行官/创始人赚很多钱——这是公司存在的理由。但我反对不断以股东为代价来做这件事——他们已经为你的公司付钱了，如果他们付出的代价不会很快盈利，为什么要让他们付出更多呢？</blockquote></p><p> Yes, Karp does not receive a salary, but he instantly sells everything he receives, splitting up and selling his options in different tranches to get the most favorable average selling price.I honestly do not understand the current compensation policy. In my opinion, the CEO, the founder of the company, should be trying with all his might to bring his company to the top -all I can see today is the constant dilution and the lack of profitability over the 18 years of the company's existence.</p><p><blockquote>是的，卡普没有工资，但他立即卖掉了他收到的所有东西，将他的期权分成不同的批次出售，以获得最优惠的平均售价。老实说，我不明白目前的薪酬政策。在我看来，首席执行官，公司的创始人，应该竭尽全力将他的公司带到顶峰——我今天所能看到的只是公司成立18年来不断稀释和缺乏盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> But the bulls, apparently do not care - anyway, now and then I read the excuses as to why Karp makes nearly $370 million a year while the net profit margin is more than 95% (of revenues), only with minus sign in from of it.</p><p><blockquote>但多头显然不在乎——无论如何，我时不时会读到卡普年收入近3.7亿美元的借口，而净利润率超过95%（收入），只是减去了其中的登录。</blockquote></p><p> Without straying too far off-topic, I propose to investigate how much and how often Karp sold his options off the market. I collected this data from the official SEC's \"Forms 4\" and tried to visualize it.</p><p><blockquote>在不跑题太远的情况下，我建议调查一下卡普在市场上出售期权的数量和频率。我从SEC官方的“表格4”中收集了这些数据，并试图将其可视化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e8cdeece714c7ccfd9c5fb48e1bd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from Openinsider.com, author's calculations &amp; visuals</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自 Openinsider.com、作者的计算和视觉效果</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see, Karp slowed down sometime after the IPO and the stock price went up. When it fell sharply (March 2021), he sold even less. Since then, the price has hovered between $26 and $23 per share. Throughout this time, Karp has been selling regularly and in almost identical amounts to whatever price he gets from the market - otherwise, the options expire. That makes sense, but why are there so many options (more than from November 2020 to March 2021)? The volume of selling now is about the same as we saw in October 2020 - when the average realized price was $9.41/share - 63.64% below the current price, which is about the \"fair price\" we saw when calculating the SOTP.Interestingly,David A. Glazer&nbsp;(CFO and Treasurer) and&nbsp;Ryan D. Taylor&nbsp;(Chief Legal and Business Affairs Officer) also sold systematically, and when the share was worth significantly lower than it is now. The President and Secretary of Palantir,Stephen Andrew Cohen, always sells whatever he gets - every single time.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，Karp 在 IPO 后的某个时候放缓，股价上涨。当它大幅下跌时（2021年3月），他卖得更少。此后，价格一直徘徊在每股26美元至23美元之间。在这段时间里，卡普一直定期出售，而且无论他从市场上获得什么价格，出售的数量都几乎相同——否则，期权就会到期。这很有道理，但为什么有这么多选择（超过2020年11月至2021年3月）？现在的销售量与我们在 2020 年 10 月看到的大致相同——当时平均实现价格为 9.41 美元/股——比当前价格低 63.64%，这大约是我们在计算 SOTP 时看到的“公平价格”。有趣的是，David A. Glazer（首席财务官兼财务主管）和 Ryan D. Taylor（首席法律和商业事务官）也系统地出售股票，当时股票价值明显低于现在。Palantir 的总裁兼秘书斯蒂芬·安德鲁·科恩 (Stephen Andrew Cohen) 总是出售他得到的任何东西——每一次。</blockquote></p><p> Many bulls hope that SBC will be discontinued once the company can cover its costs through operating activities. But exactly when that will happen, no one can say. And the signs do not suggest that it will happen soon. Until then, enjoy the dilution and the price that will most likely return to the flat channel a few days after the November 11 report release.</p><p><blockquote>许多看涨者希望，一旦该公司能够通过运营活动收回成本，SBC 就会停产。但具体什么时候会发生，没有人能说。种种迹象表明这种情况不会很快发生。在此之前，请享受稀释和价格，该价格很可能在 11 月 11 日报告发布后几天回到平坦通道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Question #3: Is competition really going to be fierce in the foreseeable future?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>问题3：在可预见的未来，竞争真的会很激烈吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yes, it is. We must realize that the company will not long grow solely on budgetary money - hence the commercialization of the business is inevitable. Then Palantir will face (already faces) a fierce battle for a place in the sun. The competition's pressure is evident even from the growth of the company's revenue in the \"Commercial\" segment - an increase of just 28% although the whole company is valued at 36 times EV/revenue (TTM).</p><p><blockquote>是的，是的。我们必须认识到，公司不会长期仅仅依靠预算资金发展——因此业务的商业化是不可避免的。然后Palantir将面临（已经面临）一场争夺阳光下一席之地的激烈战斗。竞争的压力甚至从该公司在“商业”领域的收入增长中也显而易见——尽管整个公司的估值是电动汽车/收入（TTM）的36倍，但仅增长了28%。</blockquote></p><p> In my earlier articles on PLTR, I talked about the difficulties the company faces when it wants to bring its product to the broader market. I do not think even partnering with AWS will change things significantly - theETL processesthe company is helping to set up are not anything innovative that anyone but PLTR can do.</p><p><blockquote>在我之前关于 PLTR 的文章中，我谈到了该公司想要将其产品推向更广泛的市场时所面临的困难。我认为即使与 AWS 合作也不会显着改变事情——该公司正在帮助建立的 ETL 流程并不是除了 PLTR 之外任何人都可以做的任何创新。</blockquote></p><p> If Palantir is targeting data consulting, then a logical question arises: \"Why should I pay a tech company to solve my company's problem when there are some well-known consulting firms (the Big 3) whose business experience will help me more?\" (BCG, for example, has a separate division dedicated to analyzing data and running all kinds of machine/statistical learning models in production - this division is called&nbsp;BCG Gamma).I believe customization will be a major pain point for Palantir for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>如果Palantir的目标是数据咨询，那么一个合乎逻辑的问题就出现了：“当有一些知名的咨询公司（三巨头）的商业经验会给我更多帮助时，我为什么要付钱给一家科技公司来解决我公司的问题呢？”（例如，BCG 有一个单独的部门专门分析数据并在生产中运行各种机器/统计学习模型 - 这个部门被称为 BCG Gamma）。我相信在可预见的未来，定制将是 Palantir 的一大痛点。</blockquote></p><p> It seems that the effects of competition combined with the constant dilution of share ownership are not just worrying me - the hedge funds' faith in the company has also begun to wane:</p><p><blockquote>看来，竞争加上股权不断稀释的影响不仅仅让我担心——对冲基金对该公司的信心也开始减弱：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d13784c0d5193f12f723dd56b01086\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：雅虎财经</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bottom Line</p><p><blockquote>底线</blockquote></p><p> The company's quarterly report is just around the corner, and many have high hopes for it. I am not saying the report will be weak - if you are a bull, you'll find in it what excites you first - good revenue growth, maybe 40-45%, who knows. That may undoubtedly drive prices up for a while and catapult the stock out of its current flat price channel.</p><p><blockquote>公司一季报即将发布，不少人对此寄予厚望。我并不是说这份报告会很弱——如果你是一个多头，你会在其中找到首先让你兴奋的东西——良好的收入增长，也许40-45%，谁知道呢。这无疑可能会推高价格一段时间，并使该股脱离当前的平价通道。</blockquote></p><p> However, this will not change the whole picture. Bulls say that bears are complaining about the same things (SBC, competition, etc.) - yes, but to all questions, bears receive either emotional outbursts about how the company will change the world (due to innovation, which simply does not exist) or naive ideas as separately taken problems can be solved just by themselves.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这不会改变整个画面。多头说空头在抱怨同样的事情（SBC、竞争等）。）-是的，但对于所有问题，空头要么会收到关于公司将如何改变世界的情绪爆发（由于创新，创新根本不存在），要么会收到天真的想法，因为单独处理的问题可以自己解决。</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, the position of the bears is closer to me. I am not questioning the company's product - yes, it may be really good. But it's hardly much better than what's already on the market (specifically in the \"Commercial\" segment). Management is not doing enough, in my opinion, to make the company profitable and stop shareholder dilution - that's the most important warning sign for any long-term investor. The behavior of Karp and his team suggests that Palantir is something of a \"cash cow\" - more specifically, its shareholders, who tirelessly justify everything that happens with the \"above-30%-long-term-growth\" promises (even the hulking IT giants showed much greater revenue growth compared to Palantir).</p><p><blockquote>目前，空头的位置离我更近。我不是在质疑公司的产品——是的，它可能真的很好。但它并不比市场上已有的产品好多少（特别是在“商业”领域）。在我看来，管理层在使公司盈利和停止股东稀释方面做得不够——这对任何长期投资者来说都是最重要的警告信号。卡普和他的团队的行为表明，Palantir 是一头“摇钱树”——更具体地说，是它的股东，他们不知疲倦地用“超过 30% 的长期增长”的承诺来证明发生的一切（即使是庞大的 IT 巨头也显示出比 Palantir 更大的收入增长）。</blockquote></p><p> In the short term, the stock is likely to respond with a strong upward move on the back of justified earnings forecasts. However, recent insider trades suggest that net profit margins (or more accurately, losses) will not significantly improve - again, revenue growth will not do any good. Such an expansion strategy carries serious risks - if the company falters at some point, the market will not forgive it, given how long shareholders have endured \"the value erosion\".</p><p><blockquote>短期内，在合理的盈利预测的支持下，该股可能会强劲上涨。然而，最近的内幕交易表明，净利润率（或者更准确地说，亏损）不会显着改善——同样，收入增长不会有任何好处。这样的扩张战略存在严重的风险——如果公司在某个时候摇摇欲坠，考虑到股东已经忍受了“价值侵蚀”这么久，市场不会原谅它。</blockquote></p><p> In the long run, I believe that unless SBC stops, the stock will remain in its flat state, as I showed in my previous article with other tech companies with \"promising prospects\". Ultimately, the risk/reward ratio is not on the side of long-term investors - at the very least, you need to wait for clear action from management to bring the company to profitability (it would be high time, after 18 years of existence).</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，我相信除非 SBC 停止，否则该股将保持持平状态，正如我在之前关于其他具有“前景光明”的科技公司的文章中所展示的那样。最终，风险/回报比并不站在长期投资者一边——至少，你需要等待管理层的明确行动，让公司实现盈利（在存在18年后，这将是一个很好的时间）。</blockquote></p><p> You may, of course, think otherwise. If I were tasked with expanding my audience, I would only ever write good things about PLTR, because even among Seeking Alpha users, most people only expect positive things from the company(therefore, they are looking for confirmation of their belief in different articles). However, I have decided to periodically remind you of the risks you take when buying PLTR in light of everything that is going on around the company. In my opinion, diversity of opinion and awareness of all risks is the key to rational investment decisions in the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>当然，你可能不这么认为。如果我的任务是扩大我的受众，我只会写关于PLTR的好东西，因为即使在寻求Alpha用户中，大多数人也只期望从公司得到积极的东西（因此，他们在不同的文章中寻找他们信念的确认）。然而，鉴于公司周围发生的一切，我决定定期提醒您购买 PLTR 时所承担的风险。在我看来，意见的多样性和对所有风险的认识是股票市场理性投资决策的关键。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464304-palantir-stock-risk-reward-is-not-in-your-favor-for-the-long-run\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464304-palantir-stock-risk-reward-is-not-in-your-favor-for-the-long-run","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122423591","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn this article, I speculate on what questions you should ask yourself before buying PLTR stock.\nEven if we think of the company as a technology startup, its revenue growth does not seem to be financially healthy - follow the Rule of 40.\nPLTR's business model says we can value the company by SOTP - but even if we include revenue growth rates in our model, the stock turns out to be grossly overvalued.\nThe behavior of Karp and his team suggests that Palantir is something of a \"cash cow\". And bulls always buy whatever management systematically dumps in the market.\nUltimately, the risk/reward ratio is not on the side of long-term investors - so I would not recommend buying the stock as long as it is managed the way it is managed now.\n\nDrew Angerer/Getty Images News\nIntroduction\nPalantir's (PLTR) 10-Q report is just around the corner and the bulls are frozen in anticipation of strong quarterly results that will finally allow the stock to come off the flat price channel and rise. I do not doubt that the results will be really strong - the company is good at inking new contracts and growing revenue at a rapid pace. I think Q3 revenue growth will be more than 30%, which is what Karp is promising/targeting.\nFor most long-term investors, however, it would be more important to look not just at short-term catalysts, but at the quality of the company's business model. The stock is quite expensive, and you need to be sure you are acting wisely if you are spending 30 times sales on an unprofitable company today.\nIn this article, I will speculate on what questions you should ask yourself before buying PLTR stock. I'll answer these questions by stating my opinion and referencing other sources, and you can answer them yourself (or in the comments for everyone to see).\nQuestion #1: What kind of company is Palantir?\nLet us approach the answer to this question in a very matter-of-fact way, without unnecessary grandstanding (as some bulls have done in the comments under my first article). Palantir was founded in 2003 (that's 18 years ago) and is a data analytics, data consulting, and software company that works primarily for various U.S. defense departments. Here is a list of the top 10 departments and contracting agencies:\nSource: FPDS.gov\nBut beyond serving the army, the company is trying to commercialize its services - to tap a wider market, recognizing that GovTech's projected growth of 9.35% (CAGR) over the next few years will not be enough to justify the promised 30% sales growth.As Steven Fiorillo correctly noted in his recent article on PLTR, \"the Amazon and IBM partnerships are just getting started.\" Personally, I do not doubt that Palantir will grow in its commercial side - the only question is how qualitatively and fast it's going to do it.\nEven though the company is 18 years old, the bulls justify the increasing equity deficit by saying that PLTR needs to act like a startup to expand the market as much as possible. Okay, so be it. Then let us speak in the language of venture capitalists:\n\n If you want to double your top line revenue, you need to invest twice as much in your infrastructure. So today, you’ll double your expenses but your revenue may not increase for another 24 months. Now you’re carrying the cost of growth. The trick is to balance the two. How do you invest profitability and continue to grow?\n\n\n Well, venture capitalists have a simple yet consistent way to chasing growth. The Rule of 40. Here’s how you can do the same thing.\n\n\n The Rule of 40 provides a high-level view of a business’ health. Put simply, if your percentages of growth rate and profit margin total at least 40 when added together, then your business is in great health and could double in valuation.\n\n\n The rule simple formula is:\n\n\n Rule of 40 Ratio = Growth rate + Profit\n\n\n You can measure growth in different ways but the easiest one is probably just do YoY (year-over-year) on MRR (monthly recurring revenue) growth.\n\n\n Most businesses will follow this rule in the early stages when they need funding. This becomes less important as you begin to scale and achieve consistent profitability.\n\n\n Source:Quora, Vijar Kohli, Financier at Golden Door\n\nSince Palantir is not yet reaching \"consistent profitability\", we need to look at it like an early/mid-stage startup - in which case the Rule of 40 is the best we can do to assess the quality of its business growth. Palantir has been a publicly-traded company for a little over a year, so I will measure the \"Growth rate\" as quarter-to-quarter (QoQ) sales growth and the \"Income\" as net income margins over the same period.\nSource: Seeking Alpha's data, author's calculation\nEven in terms of one of the key growth metrics for a fast-growing startup, Palantir is pretty weak in terms of financial health. That's why the company always feels the need for additional funding, which it gets at the expense of you, bulls (more on that later).\nYes, it is obvious that this metric has halved in 2 years (from June 2019), but the net profit margin seemed to have returned to its comfortable negative zone after the acute phase of the pandemic and will most likely remain in the same place when we look at the Q3 results.\nSource: Seeking Alpha's data, author's calculation\nThis should give pause for thought to those who consider Palantir a startup (albeit so old). However, I propose to return to the discussion on the main question - what kind of company is Palantir. Is it an IT defense consulting company, a data analytics company, or a combination of both?\nYou probably replied that it was a combination of both - that is logical because it follows from the last quarterly report and revenue breakdown:\nSource: PLTR's 2Q report, author's calculations\nThen we know how to value the company - through the growth and structure of its revenue. The Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation model suits here perfectly - Palantir in this case has plenty of peers for comparison.\n\nSource: Author's calculation (based on SA's data)\nOf course, the SOTP results have proven to be overly conservative, primarily because some peers are at a completely different stage in their business development (particularly in the \"Government\" segment). However, this gives us an understanding of how overvalued the company is - even with the promised growth of >30% over the long term, the current multiples are too high. The company is valued as if it will definitely realize itself in the \"Commercial\" segment - even though it is obvious that it has someone to rival it in terms of growth in this segment.\nWhat is my preliminary conclusion from the above? I answer the question posed as follows: Palantir is a fast-growing company, but with vague prospects of breaking even (in terms of net earnings) - even if we think of the company as a technology startup, its revenue growth does not bring any value to shareholders since it's non-qualitative. The company's business model suggests that it can be valued by SOTP - but even if we include revenue growth rates in the valuation model, the stock turns out to be grossly overvalued - no synergy between the two segments or continuation of \"low-grade\" revenue growth can justify this.\nQuestion #2: How much do Mr. Karp and others deserve?\nAccording to Bloomberg, Alexander Karp was among the top-10 highest-paid CEOs and executives in 2020:\nSource: Bloomberg.com\nI suggest that we look at how \"qualitatively\" these companies have grown over the last 12 months (TTM or 2021 vs. 2020). Since individual representatives of the sample are unprofitable (like Palantir itself), I will use the same metric as in the analysis above - the Rule of 40.\nSource: Bloomberg's and SA's data, author's calculations\nAuthor's note:Sales growth rates are calculated based on the last quarterly data available. But even if PLTR shows 40-45% YoY sales growth in Q3, the company will be an outsider in terms of this particular metric.\nDo not get me wrong - I do not object to a CEO/founder of a company making a lot of money - that's the company's raison d'être. But I am against it constantly being done at the expense of the shareholders - they have already paid you money for your company, why make them pay even more if what they paid for is not going to be profitable anytime soon?\nYes, Karp does not receive a salary, but he instantly sells everything he receives, splitting up and selling his options in different tranches to get the most favorable average selling price.I honestly do not understand the current compensation policy. In my opinion, the CEO, the founder of the company, should be trying with all his might to bring his company to the top -all I can see today is the constant dilution and the lack of profitability over the 18 years of the company's existence.\nBut the bulls, apparently do not care - anyway, now and then I read the excuses as to why Karp makes nearly $370 million a year while the net profit margin is more than 95% (of revenues), only with minus sign in from of it.\nWithout straying too far off-topic, I propose to investigate how much and how often Karp sold his options off the market. I collected this data from the official SEC's \"Forms 4\" and tried to visualize it.\nSource: Data from Openinsider.com, author's calculations & visuals\nAs we can see, Karp slowed down sometime after the IPO and the stock price went up. When it fell sharply (March 2021), he sold even less. Since then, the price has hovered between $26 and $23 per share. Throughout this time, Karp has been selling regularly and in almost identical amounts to whatever price he gets from the market - otherwise, the options expire. That makes sense, but why are there so many options (more than from November 2020 to March 2021)? The volume of selling now is about the same as we saw in October 2020 - when the average realized price was $9.41/share - 63.64% below the current price, which is about the \"fair price\" we saw when calculating the SOTP.Interestingly,David A. Glazer (CFO and Treasurer) and Ryan D. Taylor (Chief Legal and Business Affairs Officer) also sold systematically, and when the share was worth significantly lower than it is now. The President and Secretary of Palantir,Stephen Andrew Cohen, always sells whatever he gets - every single time.\nMany bulls hope that SBC will be discontinued once the company can cover its costs through operating activities. But exactly when that will happen, no one can say. And the signs do not suggest that it will happen soon. Until then, enjoy the dilution and the price that will most likely return to the flat channel a few days after the November 11 report release.\nQuestion #3: Is competition really going to be fierce in the foreseeable future?\nYes, it is. We must realize that the company will not long grow solely on budgetary money - hence the commercialization of the business is inevitable. Then Palantir will face (already faces) a fierce battle for a place in the sun. The competition's pressure is evident even from the growth of the company's revenue in the \"Commercial\" segment - an increase of just 28% although the whole company is valued at 36 times EV/revenue (TTM).\nIn my earlier articles on PLTR, I talked about the difficulties the company faces when it wants to bring its product to the broader market. I do not think even partnering with AWS will change things significantly - theETL processesthe company is helping to set up are not anything innovative that anyone but PLTR can do.\nIf Palantir is targeting data consulting, then a logical question arises: \"Why should I pay a tech company to solve my company's problem when there are some well-known consulting firms (the Big 3) whose business experience will help me more?\" (BCG, for example, has a separate division dedicated to analyzing data and running all kinds of machine/statistical learning models in production - this division is called BCG Gamma).I believe customization will be a major pain point for Palantir for the foreseeable future.\nIt seems that the effects of competition combined with the constant dilution of share ownership are not just worrying me - the hedge funds' faith in the company has also begun to wane:\nSource: Yahoo Finance\nBottom Line\nThe company's quarterly report is just around the corner, and many have high hopes for it. I am not saying the report will be weak - if you are a bull, you'll find in it what excites you first - good revenue growth, maybe 40-45%, who knows. That may undoubtedly drive prices up for a while and catapult the stock out of its current flat price channel.\nHowever, this will not change the whole picture. Bulls say that bears are complaining about the same things (SBC, competition, etc.) - yes, but to all questions, bears receive either emotional outbursts about how the company will change the world (due to innovation, which simply does not exist) or naive ideas as separately taken problems can be solved just by themselves.\nAt the moment, the position of the bears is closer to me. I am not questioning the company's product - yes, it may be really good. But it's hardly much better than what's already on the market (specifically in the \"Commercial\" segment). Management is not doing enough, in my opinion, to make the company profitable and stop shareholder dilution - that's the most important warning sign for any long-term investor. The behavior of Karp and his team suggests that Palantir is something of a \"cash cow\" - more specifically, its shareholders, who tirelessly justify everything that happens with the \"above-30%-long-term-growth\" promises (even the hulking IT giants showed much greater revenue growth compared to Palantir).\nIn the short term, the stock is likely to respond with a strong upward move on the back of justified earnings forecasts. However, recent insider trades suggest that net profit margins (or more accurately, losses) will not significantly improve - again, revenue growth will not do any good. Such an expansion strategy carries serious risks - if the company falters at some point, the market will not forgive it, given how long shareholders have endured \"the value erosion\".\nIn the long run, I believe that unless SBC stops, the stock will remain in its flat state, as I showed in my previous article with other tech companies with \"promising prospects\". Ultimately, the risk/reward ratio is not on the side of long-term investors - at the very least, you need to wait for clear action from management to bring the company to profitability (it would be high time, after 18 years of existence).\nYou may, of course, think otherwise. If I were tasked with expanding my audience, I would only ever write good things about PLTR, because even among Seeking Alpha users, most people only expect positive things from the company(therefore, they are looking for confirmation of their belief in different articles). However, I have decided to periodically remind you of the risks you take when buying PLTR in light of everything that is going on around the company. In my opinion, diversity of opinion and awareness of all risks is the key to rational investment decisions in the stock market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865506663,"gmtCreate":1632995195065,"gmtModify":1632995195199,"author":{"id":"3575813982420697","authorId":"3575813982420697","name":"coolstuff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59416cd904d3254185c947646f5920b9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575813982420697","authorIdStr":"3575813982420697"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>oh no! pls like!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>oh no! pls like!","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$oh no! pls like!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8b8c9465b9245546d1d836884479d7","width":"1600","height":"2844"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865506663","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861176534,"gmtCreate":1632476459128,"gmtModify":1632720160922,"author":{"id":"3575813982420697","authorId":"3575813982420697","name":"coolstuff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59416cd904d3254185c947646f5920b9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575813982420697","authorIdStr":"3575813982420697"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"buy the dip!&nbsp;","listText":"buy the dip!&nbsp;","text":"buy the dip!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861176534","repostId":"1172595024","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172595024","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1632475891,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1172595024?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-24 17:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Going On With Palantir Stock Today?<blockquote>Palantir 股票今天走势如何？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172595024","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Shares of Palantir Technologies Inc. are trading about 1.46% lower in early pre-market on Friday, in","content":"<p>Shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> </b>are trading about 1.46% lower in early pre-market on Friday, in a trend-reversal after<b>&nbsp;Peter Thiel</b>co-founded-company’s stock soared on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">帕兰蒂尔技术公司。</a></b>周五盘前早盘下跌约 1.46%，随后出现趋势逆转<b>彼得·泰尔</b>这家共同创立的公司的股价周四飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cda885623df2758f0b7912509514c1e\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;Shares in the data analytics company are retreating as investors seemed to book profit after Thursday's surge.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>由于投资者在周四飙升后似乎获利了结，这家数据分析公司的股价正在回落。</blockquote></p><p> A Palantir trade made by&nbsp;<b>Cathie Wood's Ark Invest</b>&nbsp;is also being heavily discussed across social media.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 交易由<b>凯西·伍德的方舟投资</b>也在社交媒体上引起了广泛讨论。</blockquote></p><p> Ark, which has been piling up shares in Palantir, on Thursdaytrimmed some of its exposure in the company— a first sell in the stock since early July.</p><p><blockquote>一直在增持 Palantir 股票的 Ark 周四削减了对该公司的部分敞口，这是自 7 月初以来首次出售该股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wood’s firm sold nearly 1.84 million shares — estimated to be worth $52.86 million— in Palantir on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>伍德的公司周四出售了近 184 万股 Palantir 股票，估计价值 5286 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Ark Invest owns Palantir via all of its six active exchange-traded funds the<b>Ark Innovation ETF</b>&nbsp;ARKK+0.02%and the<b>Ark Next Generation Internet ETF</b>ARKW+0.04%to buy the shares.</p><p><blockquote>Ark Invest 通过其所有六只活跃的交易所交易基金拥有 Palantir<b>方舟创新ETF</b>ARKK+0.02%和<b>方舟下一代互联网ETF</b>ARKW+0.04% 购买股票。</blockquote></p><p> Such adjustments in the portfolio aren't uncommon for Ark Invest, and earlier this month, Wood's firm trimmed its stake in&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc.</b>&nbsp;inmultiple tradesacross ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Ark Invest 来说，投资组合的此类调整并不罕见，本月早些时候，伍德的公司削减了其持有的股份<b>特斯拉公司。</b>inmultiple tradesacross ETF。</blockquote></p><p> The New York-based investment firm still owns substantial exposure in Palantir. As of Thursday’s trade, Ark Invest owned 34.7 million shares — worth $995.6 million — in Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于纽约的投资公司仍然持有 Palantir 的大量股份。截至周四交易，Ark Invest 持有 Palantir 3470 万股股票，价值 9.956 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir shares have been surging in recent sessions amid market-wide momentum and high interest from retail investors, particularlythose on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum.</p><p><blockquote>由于整个市场的势头和散户投资者（尤其是 WallStreetBets Reddit 论坛上的散户投资者）的浓厚兴趣，Palantir 股价在最近几个交易日飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;PLTR shares closed 4.89% higher at $28.77 on Thursday and were down about 2% in early pre-market trading on Friday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为：</b>PLTR 股价周四收盘上涨 4.89%，至 28.77 美元，周五早盘交易中下跌约 2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Going On With Palantir Stock Today?<blockquote>Palantir 股票今天走势如何？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Going On With Palantir Stock Today?<blockquote>Palantir 股票今天走势如何？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-24 17:31</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> </b>are trading about 1.46% lower in early pre-market on Friday, in a trend-reversal after<b>&nbsp;Peter Thiel</b>co-founded-company’s stock soared on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">帕兰蒂尔技术公司。</a></b>周五盘前早盘下跌约 1.46%，随后出现趋势逆转<b>彼得·泰尔</b>这家共同创立的公司的股价周四飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cda885623df2758f0b7912509514c1e\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;Shares in the data analytics company are retreating as investors seemed to book profit after Thursday's surge.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>由于投资者在周四飙升后似乎获利了结，这家数据分析公司的股价正在回落。</blockquote></p><p> A Palantir trade made by&nbsp;<b>Cathie Wood's Ark Invest</b>&nbsp;is also being heavily discussed across social media.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 交易由<b>凯西·伍德的方舟投资</b>也在社交媒体上引起了广泛讨论。</blockquote></p><p> Ark, which has been piling up shares in Palantir, on Thursdaytrimmed some of its exposure in the company— a first sell in the stock since early July.</p><p><blockquote>一直在增持 Palantir 股票的 Ark 周四削减了对该公司的部分敞口，这是自 7 月初以来首次出售该股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wood’s firm sold nearly 1.84 million shares — estimated to be worth $52.86 million— in Palantir on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>伍德的公司周四出售了近 184 万股 Palantir 股票，估计价值 5286 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Ark Invest owns Palantir via all of its six active exchange-traded funds the<b>Ark Innovation ETF</b>&nbsp;ARKK+0.02%and the<b>Ark Next Generation Internet ETF</b>ARKW+0.04%to buy the shares.</p><p><blockquote>Ark Invest 通过其所有六只活跃的交易所交易基金拥有 Palantir<b>方舟创新ETF</b>ARKK+0.02%和<b>方舟下一代互联网ETF</b>ARKW+0.04% 购买股票。</blockquote></p><p> Such adjustments in the portfolio aren't uncommon for Ark Invest, and earlier this month, Wood's firm trimmed its stake in&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc.</b>&nbsp;inmultiple tradesacross ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Ark Invest 来说，投资组合的此类调整并不罕见，本月早些时候，伍德的公司削减了其持有的股份<b>特斯拉公司。</b>inmultiple tradesacross ETF。</blockquote></p><p> The New York-based investment firm still owns substantial exposure in Palantir. As of Thursday’s trade, Ark Invest owned 34.7 million shares — worth $995.6 million — in Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于纽约的投资公司仍然持有 Palantir 的大量股份。截至周四交易，Ark Invest 持有 Palantir 3470 万股股票，价值 9.956 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir shares have been surging in recent sessions amid market-wide momentum and high interest from retail investors, particularlythose on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum.</p><p><blockquote>由于整个市场的势头和散户投资者（尤其是 WallStreetBets Reddit 论坛上的散户投资者）的浓厚兴趣，Palantir 股价在最近几个交易日飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;PLTR shares closed 4.89% higher at $28.77 on Thursday and were down about 2% in early pre-market trading on Friday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为：</b>PLTR 股价周四收盘上涨 4.89%，至 28.77 美元，周五早盘交易中下跌约 2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKW":"ARK Next Generation Internet ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172595024","content_text":"Shares of Palantir Technologies Inc. are trading about 1.46% lower in early pre-market on Friday, in a trend-reversal after Peter Thielco-founded-company’s stock soared on Thursday.\n\nWhat Happened: Shares in the data analytics company are retreating as investors seemed to book profit after Thursday's surge.\nA Palantir trade made by Cathie Wood's Ark Invest is also being heavily discussed across social media.\nArk, which has been piling up shares in Palantir, on Thursdaytrimmed some of its exposure in the company— a first sell in the stock since early July.\nWood’s firm sold nearly 1.84 million shares — estimated to be worth $52.86 million— in Palantir on Thursday.\nArk Invest owns Palantir via all of its six active exchange-traded funds theArk Innovation ETF ARKK+0.02%and theArk Next Generation Internet ETFARKW+0.04%to buy the shares.\nSuch adjustments in the portfolio aren't uncommon for Ark Invest, and earlier this month, Wood's firm trimmed its stake in Tesla Inc. inmultiple tradesacross ETFs.\nThe New York-based investment firm still owns substantial exposure in Palantir. As of Thursday’s trade, Ark Invest owned 34.7 million shares — worth $995.6 million — in Palantir.\nPalantir shares have been surging in recent sessions amid market-wide momentum and high interest from retail investors, particularlythose on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum.\nPrice Action: PLTR shares closed 4.89% higher at $28.77 on Thursday and were down about 2% in early pre-market trading on Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKK":0.9,"ARKW":0.9,"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881056302,"gmtCreate":1631282643706,"gmtModify":1631886858199,"author":{"id":"3575813982420697","authorId":"3575813982420697","name":"coolstuff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59416cd904d3254185c947646f5920b9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575813982420697","authorIdStr":"3575813982420697"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CELZ\">$Creative Medical Technology Holdings, Inc.(CELZ)$</a>why keep dropping? any news?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CELZ\">$Creative Medical Technology Holdings, Inc.(CELZ)$</a>why keep dropping? any news?","text":"$Creative Medical Technology Holdings, Inc.(CELZ)$why keep dropping? any news?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881056302","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881087034,"gmtCreate":1631281669028,"gmtModify":1631885986540,"author":{"id":"3575813982420697","authorId":"3575813982420697","name":"coolstuff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59416cd904d3254185c947646f5920b9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575813982420697","authorIdStr":"3575813982420697"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>huat ar!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>huat ar!","text":"$SOS Limited(SOS)$huat ar!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca0f1cd27d8fd7bbc3013c8b43f6c747","width":"1600","height":"2844"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881087034","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880773073,"gmtCreate":1631087484692,"gmtModify":1631883908690,"author":{"id":"3575813982420697","authorId":"3575813982420697","name":"coolstuff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59416cd904d3254185c947646f5920b9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575813982420697","authorIdStr":"3575813982420697"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Dunno should I average up :(","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Dunno should I average up :(","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Dunno should I average up :(","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ba19f4bb7e4aacdc422d2daf8b47759","width":"1600","height":"2844"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880773073","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880790450,"gmtCreate":1631078673870,"gmtModify":1631884819277,"author":{"id":"3575813982420697","authorId":"3575813982420697","name":"coolstuff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59416cd904d3254185c947646f5920b9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575813982420697","authorIdStr":"3575813982420697"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLOV\">$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$</a>Woohoo! pls fly even higher!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLOV\">$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$</a>Woohoo! pls fly even higher!","text":"$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$Woohoo! pls fly even higher!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742c056adf3ff01de811298ddc789046","width":"1600","height":"2844"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880790450","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1975,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}