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- EndoGohEndoGoh
  ·2021-12-16
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  Why the Fed May Have to Kill the Stock Market’s Rally to Quash Inflation<blockquote>为什么美联储可能不得不扼杀股市涨势来抑制通胀</blockquote>
  Inflation will ease markedly while interest rates remain historically low and negative in real terms
  Why the Fed May Have to Kill the Stock Market’s Rally to Quash Inflation<blockquote>为什么美联储可能不得不扼杀股市涨势来抑制通胀</blockquote>
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- EndoGohEndoGoh
  ·2021-09-23
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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market returns to full employment, according to the latest economic projections from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>根据美联储最新的经济预测，即使劳动力市场恢复充分就业，通胀也将显着缓解，而实际利率仍处于历史低位且为负。</blockquote></p><p> This would be the best of all economic possible worlds. 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According to the FOMC’s “dot plot” of forecasts of committee members, their median guess is for three quarter-percentage point increases by the end of 2022, with another three hikes in 2023 and two more by the end of 2024.</p><p><blockquote>反过来，这将为联邦基金目标利率在春季从目前的谷底0%-0.25%的初步上升奠定基础。根据FOMC对委员会成员预测的“点阵图”，他们的猜测中值是到2022年底加息三个四分之一个百分点，2023年再加息三次，2024年底再加息两次。</blockquote></p><p> Conventional wisdom calls this a hawkish pivot, which it may be given that the Fed’s previous dots envisioned only a single quarter-point hike next year and maybe a couple more in 2023. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted inflation has proved anything but transitory (with the T word excised from the FOMC’s policy statement). And at his press conference, he acknowledged the labor market has made much faster progress toward the central bank’s goal of full employment than expected.</p><p><blockquote>传统观点评级认为这是一个鹰派转向，这可能是因为美联储之前的dots预计明年仅加息一次25个基点，2023年可能还会加息几次。但美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔承认，事实证明，通胀绝不是暂时的（联邦公开市场委员会的政策声明中删除了T字）。在新闻发布会上，他承认劳动力市场在实现央行充分就业目标方面取得的进展比预期快得多。</blockquote></p><p> “Powell did his job to explain how the world has changed and how a lot of their forecasts were based on assumptions that have proved incorrect,” Julian Brigden, head of Macro Intelligence Partners, told <i>Barron’s</i>. “He’s now addressing inflation and a labor market that for all intents and purposes has healed.”</p><p><blockquote>Macro Intelligence Partners主管朱利安·布里格登(Julian Brigden)表示：“鲍威尔尽了自己的职责，解释了世界是如何变化的，以及他们的许多预测是如何基于被证明是不正确的假设。”<i>巴伦周刊</i>“他现在正在解决通货膨胀和劳动力市场的问题，而劳动力市场实际上已经痊愈了。”</blockquote></p><p> What the markets fail to grasp, however, is that a far greater tightening of financial conditions will be needed to bring about the descent in inflation envisioned in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, Brigden added.</p><p><blockquote>然而，布里格登补充说，市场未能理解的是，要实现美联储经济预测摘要中设想的通胀下降，需要进一步收紧金融状况。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditure deflator, is expected to be cut by more than half next year, to 2.6% from the current estimate of 5.3% for 2021. From there, the PCE deflator is expected to enter a glide path to 2.3% and 2.1% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, or virtually spot on with the Fed’s long-run target of 2.0%.</p><p><blockquote>美联储首选的通胀指标个人消费支出平减指数预计明年将下调一半以上，从目前估计的2021年5.3%降至2.6%。预计PCE平减指数将在2023年和2024年分别下滑至2.3%和2.1%，几乎符合美联储2.0%的长期目标。</blockquote></p><p> Unemployment is forecast to fall from 4.3% at the end of 2021 to 3.5% in the next three years. Powell wouldn’t be pinned down about what would constitute the Fed’s goal of maximum employment, which he said at his Wednesday press conference couldn’t be captured in a single number, as with inflation.</p><p><blockquote>预计未来三年失业率将从2021年底的4.3%降至3.5%。鲍威尔不愿透露美联储最大就业目标的构成，他在周三的新闻发布会上表示，这一目标无法像通胀一样用单一数字来体现。</blockquote></p><p> Brigden says for all intents and purposes, full employment has been met. Powell himself took note of key indicators consistent with full employment, including wage growth and the quits rate. And as Joseph Carson, former chief economist of AllianceBernstein, points out in his blog, after a steep fall in the jobless rate this year, there are 11 million job openings, 4 million more than there are unemployed.</p><p><blockquote>布里格登说，从各方面来看，充分就业已经实现。鲍威尔本人注意到了与充分就业一致的关键指标，包括工资增长和辞职率。正如联博前首席经济学家约瑟夫·卡森在他的博客中指出的那样，在今年失业率急剧下降后，有1100万个职位空缺，比失业人数多400万。</blockquote></p><p> What the stock market doesn’t realize is how much financial conditions have to tighten to tamp down inflation as the Fed forecasts, Brigden says.</p><p><blockquote>布里格登表示，股市没有意识到的是，正如美联储预测的那样，金融状况必须收紧多少才能抑制通胀。</blockquote></p><p> Even with its latest pivot, monetary policy will remain accommodative. The Fed will still be expanding its balance sheet (thus adding liquidity), only more slowly. Hiking the fed-funds rate three times, to 0.75%-1%, by the end of 2022, would leave this key rate still sharply negative in real terms (that is, well below the rate of inflation), an easy policy by any criteria.</p><p><blockquote>即使有最新的转向，货币政策仍将保持宽松。美联储仍将扩大资产负债表（从而增加流动性），只是速度更慢。到2022年底，将联邦基金利率三次上调至0.75%-1%，这一关键利率按实际价值计算仍将大幅为负（即远低于通胀率），无论从任何标准来看，这都是一项轻松的政策。</blockquote></p><p> Other components of financial conditions include the dollar’s exchange rate, short-term Treasury rates, longer-term Treasury yields, corporate-credit risk spreads, and, last but not least, the equity market. A significant correction in stock prices would be consistent with the requisite tightening in financial conditions needed to slow inflation, Brigden concludes.</p><p><blockquote>金融状况的其他组成部分包括美元汇率、短期国债利率、长期国债收益率、企业信用风险利差，以及最后但并非最不重要的股票市场。布里格登总结道，股价的大幅调整将与减缓通胀所需的金融状况收紧相一致。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s post-Fed rally was based on the pleasant notion that the central bank would be able to achieve its objectives of bringing inflation back into line along with full employment, all while continuing easy financial conditions. In other words, the best of all possible economic and financial worlds, as seen by Dr. Pangloss.</p><p><blockquote>美联储后股市的反弹是基于一个令人愉快的想法，即央行将能够实现其目标，即让通胀回归正轨和充分就业，同时继续宽松的金融状况。换句话说，正如潘格洛斯博士所看到的，所有可能的经济和金融世界中最好的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the Fed May Have to Kill the Stock Market’s Rally to Quash Inflation<blockquote>为什么美联储可能不得不扼杀股市涨势来抑制通胀</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the Fed May Have to Kill the Stock Market’s Rally to Quash Inflation<blockquote>为什么美联储可能不得不扼杀股市涨势来抑制通胀</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-16 11:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Inflation will ease markedly while interest rates remain historically low and negative in real terms, even as the labor market returns to full employment, according to the latest economic projections from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>根据美联储最新的经济预测，即使劳动力市场恢复充分就业，通胀也将显着缓解，而实际利率仍处于历史低位且为负。</blockquote></p><p> This would be the best of all economic possible worlds. Indeed, it is a forecast worthy of Dr. Pangloss from Voltaire’s <i>Candide</i>, who called this the best of all possible worlds—in contradiction to the reality around him.</p><p><blockquote>这将是所有可能的经济世界中最好的。的确，这是伏尔泰的庞格罗斯博士的预言<i>老实人</i>他称这是所有可能的世界中最好的——与他周围的现实相矛盾。</blockquote></p><p> In an apparent sigh of relief Wednesday, stocks reversed earlier losses following the widely anticipated announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee that it will taper its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage securities twice as quickly as previously indicated, by a total of $60 billion per month in January.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美国联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee)宣布，将以之前两倍的速度缩减国债和机构抵押贷款证券的购买量，总计减少600亿美元，股市明显松了一口气。一月。</blockquote></p><p> That, in turn, would set the stage for the initial liftoff in the federal-funds target rate, from the current rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, by the spring. According to the FOMC’s “dot plot” of forecasts of committee members, their median guess is for three quarter-percentage point increases by the end of 2022, with another three hikes in 2023 and two more by the end of 2024.</p><p><blockquote>反过来，这将为联邦基金目标利率在春季从目前的谷底0%-0.25%的初步上升奠定基础。根据FOMC对委员会成员预测的“点阵图”，他们的猜测中值是到2022年底加息三个四分之一个百分点，2023年再加息三次，2024年底再加息两次。</blockquote></p><p> Conventional wisdom calls this a hawkish pivot, which it may be given that the Fed’s previous dots envisioned only a single quarter-point hike next year and maybe a couple more in 2023. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted inflation has proved anything but transitory (with the T word excised from the FOMC’s policy statement). And at his press conference, he acknowledged the labor market has made much faster progress toward the central bank’s goal of full employment than expected.</p><p><blockquote>传统观点评级认为这是一个鹰派转向，这可能是因为美联储之前的dots预计明年仅加息一次25个基点，2023年可能还会加息几次。但美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔承认，事实证明，通胀绝不是暂时的（联邦公开市场委员会的政策声明中删除了T字）。在新闻发布会上，他承认劳动力市场在实现央行充分就业目标方面取得的进展比预期快得多。</blockquote></p><p> “Powell did his job to explain how the world has changed and how a lot of their forecasts were based on assumptions that have proved incorrect,” Julian Brigden, head of Macro Intelligence Partners, told <i>Barron’s</i>. “He’s now addressing inflation and a labor market that for all intents and purposes has healed.”</p><p><blockquote>Macro Intelligence Partners主管朱利安·布里格登(Julian Brigden)表示：“鲍威尔尽了自己的职责，解释了世界是如何变化的，以及他们的许多预测是如何基于被证明是不正确的假设。”<i>巴伦周刊</i>“他现在正在解决通货膨胀和劳动力市场的问题，而劳动力市场实际上已经痊愈了。”</blockquote></p><p> What the markets fail to grasp, however, is that a far greater tightening of financial conditions will be needed to bring about the descent in inflation envisioned in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, Brigden added.</p><p><blockquote>然而，布里格登补充说，市场未能理解的是，要实现美联储经济预测摘要中设想的通胀下降，需要进一步收紧金融状况。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditure deflator, is expected to be cut by more than half next year, to 2.6% from the current estimate of 5.3% for 2021. From there, the PCE deflator is expected to enter a glide path to 2.3% and 2.1% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, or virtually spot on with the Fed’s long-run target of 2.0%.</p><p><blockquote>美联储首选的通胀指标个人消费支出平减指数预计明年将下调一半以上，从目前估计的2021年5.3%降至2.6%。预计PCE平减指数将在2023年和2024年分别下滑至2.3%和2.1%，几乎符合美联储2.0%的长期目标。</blockquote></p><p> Unemployment is forecast to fall from 4.3% at the end of 2021 to 3.5% in the next three years. Powell wouldn’t be pinned down about what would constitute the Fed’s goal of maximum employment, which he said at his Wednesday press conference couldn’t be captured in a single number, as with inflation.</p><p><blockquote>预计未来三年失业率将从2021年底的4.3%降至3.5%。鲍威尔不愿透露美联储最大就业目标的构成，他在周三的新闻发布会上表示，这一目标无法像通胀一样用单一数字来体现。</blockquote></p><p> Brigden says for all intents and purposes, full employment has been met. Powell himself took note of key indicators consistent with full employment, including wage growth and the quits rate. And as Joseph Carson, former chief economist of AllianceBernstein, points out in his blog, after a steep fall in the jobless rate this year, there are 11 million job openings, 4 million more than there are unemployed.</p><p><blockquote>布里格登说，从各方面来看，充分就业已经实现。鲍威尔本人注意到了与充分就业一致的关键指标，包括工资增长和辞职率。正如联博前首席经济学家约瑟夫·卡森在他的博客中指出的那样，在今年失业率急剧下降后，有1100万个职位空缺，比失业人数多400万。</blockquote></p><p> What the stock market doesn’t realize is how much financial conditions have to tighten to tamp down inflation as the Fed forecasts, Brigden says.</p><p><blockquote>布里格登表示，股市没有意识到的是，正如美联储预测的那样，金融状况必须收紧多少才能抑制通胀。</blockquote></p><p> Even with its latest pivot, monetary policy will remain accommodative. The Fed will still be expanding its balance sheet (thus adding liquidity), only more slowly. Hiking the fed-funds rate three times, to 0.75%-1%, by the end of 2022, would leave this key rate still sharply negative in real terms (that is, well below the rate of inflation), an easy policy by any criteria.</p><p><blockquote>即使有最新的转向，货币政策仍将保持宽松。美联储仍将扩大资产负债表（从而增加流动性），只是速度更慢。到2022年底，将联邦基金利率三次上调至0.75%-1%，这一关键利率按实际价值计算仍将大幅为负（即远低于通胀率），无论从任何标准来看，这都是一项轻松的政策。</blockquote></p><p> Other components of financial conditions include the dollar’s exchange rate, short-term Treasury rates, longer-term Treasury yields, corporate-credit risk spreads, and, last but not least, the equity market. A significant correction in stock prices would be consistent with the requisite tightening in financial conditions needed to slow inflation, Brigden concludes.</p><p><blockquote>金融状况的其他组成部分包括美元汇率、短期国债利率、长期国债收益率、企业信用风险利差，以及最后但并非最不重要的股票市场。布里格登总结道，股价的大幅调整将与减缓通胀所需的金融状况收紧相一致。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s post-Fed rally was based on the pleasant notion that the central bank would be able to achieve its objectives of bringing inflation back into line along with full employment, all while continuing easy financial conditions. In other words, the best of all possible economic and financial worlds, as seen by Dr. Pangloss.</p><p><blockquote>美联储后股市的反弹是基于一个令人愉快的想法，即央行将能够实现其目标，即让通胀回归正轨和充分就业，同时继续宽松的金融状况。换句话说，正如潘格洛斯博士所看到的，所有可能的经济和金融世界中最好的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-the-fed-may-have-to-kill-the-stock-markets-rally-to-quash-inflation-51639611968?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-the-fed-may-have-to-kill-the-stock-markets-rally-to-quash-inflation-51639611968?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106884978","content_text":"Inflation will ease markedly while interest rates remain historically low and negative in real terms, even as the labor market returns to full employment, according to the latest economic projections from the Federal Reserve.\nThis would be the best of all economic possible worlds. Indeed, it is a forecast worthy of Dr. Pangloss from Voltaire’s Candide, who called this the best of all possible worlds—in contradiction to the reality around him.\nIn an apparent sigh of relief Wednesday, stocks reversed earlier losses following the widely anticipated announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee that it will taper its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage securities twice as quickly as previously indicated, by a total of $60 billion per month in January.\nThat, in turn, would set the stage for the initial liftoff in the federal-funds target rate, from the current rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, by the spring. According to the FOMC’s “dot plot” of forecasts of committee members, their median guess is for three quarter-percentage point increases by the end of 2022, with another three hikes in 2023 and two more by the end of 2024.\nConventional wisdom calls this a hawkish pivot, which it may be given that the Fed’s previous dots envisioned only a single quarter-point hike next year and maybe a couple more in 2023. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted inflation has proved anything but transitory (with the T word excised from the FOMC’s policy statement). And at his press conference, he acknowledged the labor market has made much faster progress toward the central bank’s goal of full employment than expected.\n“Powell did his job to explain how the world has changed and how a lot of their forecasts were based on assumptions that have proved incorrect,” Julian Brigden, head of Macro Intelligence Partners, told Barron’s. “He’s now addressing inflation and a labor market that for all intents and purposes has healed.”\nWhat the markets fail to grasp, however, is that a far greater tightening of financial conditions will be needed to bring about the descent in inflation envisioned in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, Brigden added.\nThe Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditure deflator, is expected to be cut by more than half next year, to 2.6% from the current estimate of 5.3% for 2021. From there, the PCE deflator is expected to enter a glide path to 2.3% and 2.1% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, or virtually spot on with the Fed’s long-run target of 2.0%.\nUnemployment is forecast to fall from 4.3% at the end of 2021 to 3.5% in the next three years. Powell wouldn’t be pinned down about what would constitute the Fed’s goal of maximum employment, which he said at his Wednesday press conference couldn’t be captured in a single number, as with inflation.\nBrigden says for all intents and purposes, full employment has been met. Powell himself took note of key indicators consistent with full employment, including wage growth and the quits rate. And as Joseph Carson, former chief economist of AllianceBernstein, points out in his blog, after a steep fall in the jobless rate this year, there are 11 million job openings, 4 million more than there are unemployed.\nWhat the stock market doesn’t realize is how much financial conditions have to tighten to tamp down inflation as the Fed forecasts, Brigden says.\nEven with its latest pivot, monetary policy will remain accommodative. The Fed will still be expanding its balance sheet (thus adding liquidity), only more slowly. Hiking the fed-funds rate three times, to 0.75%-1%, by the end of 2022, would leave this key rate still sharply negative in real terms (that is, well below the rate of inflation), an easy policy by any criteria.\nOther components of financial conditions include the dollar’s exchange rate, short-term Treasury rates, longer-term Treasury yields, corporate-credit risk spreads, and, last but not least, the equity market. A significant correction in stock prices would be consistent with the requisite tightening in financial conditions needed to slow inflation, Brigden concludes.\nThe stock market’s post-Fed rally was based on the pleasant notion that the central bank would be able to achieve its objectives of bringing inflation back into line along with full employment, all while continuing easy financial conditions. In other words, the best of all possible economic and financial worlds, as seen by Dr. Pangloss.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863195938,"gmtCreate":1632362423724,"gmtModify":1632800911947,"author":{"id":"3575089514622873","authorId":"3575089514622873","name":"EndoGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fbcacab31cbfc4f26f8c292f56497ae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575089514622873","authorIdStr":"3575089514622873"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863195938","repostId":"2169650140","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}