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Jeric87
Jeric87
·
2022-01-28
Good!
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Jeric87
Jeric87
·
2021-08-01
Singtel needs to reinvent itself
SIA, SIAE, Singtel potential candidates for company restructuring: Maybank<blockquote>SIA、SIAE、Singtel 公司重组的潜在候选者:马来亚银行</blockquote>
Who will follow in SPH, Keppel and Sembcorp steps in corporate restructuring? Drivers are in play f
SIA, SIAE, Singtel potential candidates for company restructuring: Maybank<blockquote>SIA、SIAE、Singtel 公司重组的潜在候选者:马来亚银行</blockquote>
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Jeric87
Jeric87
·
2021-07-13
Like!
Anything But Transitory: Consumers Expect Inflation In One Year To Soar To 4.8%<blockquote>绝不是暂时的:消费者预计一年内通胀率将飙升至 4.8%</blockquote>
While central banks, tenured economists and the financial media are doingeverythingin their propagan
Anything But Transitory: Consumers Expect Inflation In One Year To Soar To 4.8%<blockquote>绝不是暂时的:消费者预计一年内通胀率将飙升至 4.8%</blockquote>
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Jeric87
Jeric87
·
2021-07-13
Really?
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Jeric87
Jeric87
·
2021-06-28
is this realistic?
Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场:熊案</blockquote>
Summary On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong re
Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场:熊案</blockquote>
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Jeric87
Jeric87
·
2021-06-28
good to adapt
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Jeric87
Jeric87
·
2021-06-27
Good!
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Jeric87
Jeric87
·
2021-06-24
bankrupt country :(
The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储,第 1 部分:他们无法加息</blockquote>
3 Key Takeaways The US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt Much of the debt is short-term, mak
The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储,第 1 部分:他们无法加息</blockquote>
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Jeric87
Jeric87
·
2021-06-20
[微笑]
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Jeric87
Jeric87
·
2021-06-20
But nobody can tell when
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needs to reinvent itself","listText":"Singtel needs to reinvent itself","text":"Singtel needs to reinvent itself","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802541401","repostId":"1153879814","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153879814","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627784753,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1153879814?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 10:25","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"SIA, SIAE, Singtel potential candidates for company restructuring: Maybank<blockquote>SIA、SIAE、Singtel 公司重组的潜在候选者:马来亚银行</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153879814","media":"Singapore Business","summary":"Who will follow in SPH, Keppel and Sembcorp steps in corporate restructuring?\n\nDrivers are in play f","content":"<p> <b><i>Who will follow in SPH, Keppel and Sembcorp steps in corporate restructuring?</i></b> Drivers are in play for more corporate restructuring from Singapore firms following the major restructuring plans of Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) and a possible merger between Keppel Offshore & Marine and Sembcorp Marine Ltd, according to a report by Maybank Kim Eng.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>谁将跟随SPH、吉宝和胜科的公司重组步骤?</i></b>根据 Maybank Kim Eng 的一份报告,在新加坡报业控股公司 (SPH) 的重大重组计划以及吉宝近海与胜科海事有限公司可能合并之后,新加坡公司进行更多企业重组的驱动力正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> According to the report, the drivers catalyzing these restructurings remain in play and are unlikely to retreat in the near-term.</p><p><blockquote>报告称,催化这些重组的驱动因素仍在发挥作用,短期内不太可能消退。</blockquote></p><p> Some Singapore companies named by Maybank that are potential candidates for a corporate restructuring are Singtel, Singapore Airlines Group and the Singapore Institute of Aerospace Engineers.</p><p><blockquote>马来亚银行点名的一些新加坡公司是公司重组的潜在候选人,包括新加坡电信、新加坡航空集团和新加坡航空航天工程师学会。</blockquote></p><p> Maybank said Singtel is currently exploring options to review its stakes in associates and infrastructure assets to unlock latent value.</p><p><blockquote>马来亚银行表示,新加坡电信目前正在探索审查其在联营公司和基础设施资产中的股份,以释放潜在价值。</blockquote></p><p> Continued weakness and expected long lead time to recovery of international air travel may force certain rationalization for SIA and SIAE. Meanwhile, big developers like CityDev and UOL also have sizable development businesses similar to CAPL.</p><p><blockquote>持续疲软以及预计国际航空旅行复苏的较长准备时间可能会迫使新航和新航进行某些合理化。与此同时,像CityDev和UOL这样的大型开发商也有类似CAPL的可观开发业务。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1618986048053","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SIA, SIAE, Singtel potential candidates for company restructuring: Maybank<blockquote>SIA、SIAE、Singtel 公司重组的潜在候选者:马来亚银行</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSIA, SIAE, Singtel potential candidates for company restructuring: Maybank<blockquote>SIA、SIAE、Singtel 公司重组的潜在候选者:马来亚银行</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Singapore Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 10:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b><i>Who will follow in SPH, Keppel and Sembcorp steps in corporate restructuring?</i></b> Drivers are in play for more corporate restructuring from Singapore firms following the major restructuring plans of Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) and a possible merger between Keppel Offshore & Marine and Sembcorp Marine Ltd, according to a report by Maybank Kim Eng.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>谁将跟随SPH、吉宝和胜科的公司重组步骤?</i></b>根据 Maybank Kim Eng 的一份报告,在新加坡报业控股公司 (SPH) 的重大重组计划以及吉宝近海与胜科海事有限公司可能合并之后,新加坡公司进行更多企业重组的驱动力正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> According to the report, the drivers catalyzing these restructurings remain in play and are unlikely to retreat in the near-term.</p><p><blockquote>报告称,催化这些重组的驱动因素仍在发挥作用,短期内不太可能消退。</blockquote></p><p> Some Singapore companies named by Maybank that are potential candidates for a corporate restructuring are Singtel, Singapore Airlines Group and the Singapore Institute of Aerospace Engineers.</p><p><blockquote>马来亚银行点名的一些新加坡公司是公司重组的潜在候选人,包括新加坡电信、新加坡航空集团和新加坡航空航天工程师学会。</blockquote></p><p> Maybank said Singtel is currently exploring options to review its stakes in associates and infrastructure assets to unlock latent value.</p><p><blockquote>马来亚银行表示,新加坡电信目前正在探索审查其在联营公司和基础设施资产中的股份,以释放潜在价值。</blockquote></p><p> Continued weakness and expected long lead time to recovery of international air travel may force certain rationalization for SIA and SIAE. Meanwhile, big developers like CityDev and UOL also have sizable development businesses similar to CAPL.</p><p><blockquote>持续疲软以及预计国际航空旅行复苏的较长准备时间可能会迫使新航和新航进行某些合理化。与此同时,像CityDev和UOL这样的大型开发商也有类似CAPL的可观开发业务。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/sia-siae-singtel-potential-candidates-company-restructuring-maybank\">Singapore Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"C6L.SI":"新加坡航空公司"},"source_url":"https://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/sia-siae-singtel-potential-candidates-company-restructuring-maybank","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153879814","content_text":"Who will follow in SPH, Keppel and Sembcorp steps in corporate restructuring?\n\nDrivers are in play for more corporate restructuring from Singapore firms following the major restructuring plans of Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) and a possible merger between Keppel Offshore & Marine and Sembcorp Marine Ltd, according to a report by Maybank Kim Eng.\nAccording to the report, the drivers catalyzing these restructurings remain in play and are unlikely to retreat in the near-term.\nSome Singapore companies named by Maybank that are potential candidates for a corporate restructuring are Singtel, Singapore Airlines Group and the Singapore Institute of Aerospace Engineers.\nMaybank said Singtel is currently exploring options to review its stakes in associates and infrastructure assets to unlock latent value.\nContinued weakness and expected long lead time to recovery of international air travel may force certain rationalization for SIA and SIAE. Meanwhile, big developers like CityDev and UOL also have sizable development businesses similar to CAPL.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"C6L.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142861584,"gmtCreate":1626141404548,"gmtModify":1631890787547,"author":{"id":"3575074532947939","authorId":"3575074532947939","name":"Jeric87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575074532947939","authorIdStr":"3575074532947939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like!","listText":"Like!","text":"Like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142861584","repostId":"1161134258","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1161134258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626137252,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1161134258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Anything But Transitory: Consumers Expect Inflation In One Year To Soar To 4.8%<blockquote>绝不是暂时的:消费者预计一年内通胀率将飙升至 4.8%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161134258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While central banks, tenured economists and the financial media are doingeverythingin their propagan","content":"<p>While central banks, tenured economists and the financial media are doing<i>everything</i>in their propaganda power to convince Americans that the current phase of hyperinflation is merely transitory (although it now appears that even the Fed is getting some doubts writing in its semi-annual monetary policy report that inflation is \"<i><b>more lasting but likely still temporary</b></i>\" until proven otherwise, of course), the shocking reality on the ground is that the Fed has effectively lost control over near-term inflation expectations, as the NY Fed's own survey of consumer expectations reveals.</p><p><blockquote>当央行、终身经济学家和财经媒体<i>一切</i>在他们的宣传力量中,美国人相信当前的恶性通货膨胀只是暂时的(尽管现在看来,即使是美联储在其半年度货币政策报告中写道,通货膨胀是“<i><b>更持久但可能仍然是暂时的</b></i>“当然,除非另有证明),当地令人震惊的现实是,正如纽约联储自己对消费者预期的调查所显示的那样,美联储实际上已经失去了对近期通胀预期的控制。</blockquote></p><p> According to the latest, June, installment of this closely watched survey, consumer inflation expectations for one year ahead, jumped by the most on record,<b>surging by 0.8% in one month, from 4.0% in May to an all-time high for this series of 4.8% in June.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据这项备受关注的6月份最新调查,消费者对未来一年的通胀预期跃升至有记录以来的最大水平,<b>一个月内飙升 0.8%,从 5 月份的 4.0% 升至 6 月份该系列的历史新高 4.8%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/687424aa9936131fc5fd4fb975eb16c9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"225\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As the NY Fed details, \"the increase in the short-term measure was driven mostly by respondents who have some college education. Our measures of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) reached new series’ highs at both horizons.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如纽约联储所详细说明的那样,“短期指标的增加主要是由受过一定大学教育的受访者推动的。我们对受访者之间的分歧(通胀预期第 75 个百分位和第 25 个百分位之间的差异)的衡量标准在这两个层面都达到了新系列的最高值”。</blockquote></p><p> There was some hope that the US won't end up as Weimar in the Fed's median inflation expectations for the three-year horizon which, unlike the 1-Year spot, were little changed from the prior month at 3.6%. Still, arguing that inflation at 3.6% in 3 years is acceptable to the Fed's formerly dual mandate (which has since grown toSocial Justice, Race, Gender Issues, Climate Change And Inequality), is at best laughable.</p><p><blockquote>人们希望美国不会像美联储三年期通胀预期中值那样陷入魏玛,与一年期通胀预期不同,该预期与上个月的 3.6% 相比变化不大。尽管如此,认为3年内3.6%的通胀率是美联储以前的双重任务(此后已扩展到社会正义、种族、性别问题、气候变化和不平等)可以接受的,充其量是可笑的。</blockquote></p><p> However, in a testament to just how sticky most Americans expect inflation to be, the most valuable (and widespread) middle-class asset - housing - is expected to rise at near-record levels<b>with the median year-ahead home price change expectations at 6.2% in June, substantially higher than its 12-months trailing average of 3.7%,</b>if well below the current double-digit pace of home price increase which has pushed the average home price to a new all-time high. According to the Fed, \"Median year-ahead home price growth uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding year-ahead home price growth outcomes—increased and reached a new series high.\"</p><p><blockquote>然而,最有价值(也是最普遍)的中产阶级资产——住房——预计将升至接近创纪录的水平,这证明了大多数美国人对通胀的预期有多粘性<b>6 月份房价同比变化预期中值为 6.2%,远高于 12 个月追踪平均水平 3.7%,</b>如果远低于目前两位数的房价增长速度,这已经将平均房价推至历史新高。美联储表示,“未来一年房价增长不确定性中位数——或有关未来一年房价增长结果的不确定性——增加并达到新的系列高点。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730babaea29df064660a7f25212d1a82\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"439\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Looking at a breakdown of inflation expectations by commodity, the median one-year ahead expected change in the cost of college education increased to 7.0% from 6.1% in May, its highest reading since April 2019. In contrast, the median expected changes in the price of food and gasoline decreased to 7.1% and 9.2%, respectively, from 8.0% and 9.8% in May. The median expected change in the cost of medical care and rent remained unchanged at 9.4% and 9.7%; elsewhere medical costs are expected to rise 9.36%; and rent prices will rise 9.66%.</p><p><blockquote>从按商品划分的通胀预期细分来看,大学教育成本未来一年预期变化的中位数从5月份的6.1%升至7.0%,为2019年4月以来的最高读数。相比之下,食品和汽油价格的预期变动中位数分别从5月份的8.0%和9.8%降至7.1%和9.2%。医疗费用和租金的预期变化中位数保持不变,分别为9.4%和9.7%;其他地方医疗费用预计上涨9.36%;租金价格将上涨9.66%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/003d8db78cc2804186ff076cccec3077\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"435\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Some other notable highlights from the survey: 9.59% (vs 9.69% in the prior month), expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months; the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months fell from 12.6% to 10.9%, hitting new series low which is to be expected in a country with record numbers of job openings.</p><p><blockquote>调查中的其他一些值得注意的亮点:9.59%(上个月为9.69%),预计在未来三个月内无法偿还最低债务;未来 12 个月内失业的平均感知概率从 12.6% 降至 10.9%,创下了一个职位空缺数量创纪录的国家的新低。</blockquote></p><p> Some more details from the Fed's survey:</p><p><blockquote>美联储调查的更多细节:</blockquote></p><p> <b>Labor Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>劳动力市场</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Median one-year ahead expected earnings growth increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% in June, its highest reading since the start of the pandemic (February 2020). The increase was driven by respondents who have at least some college education.</li> <li>Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now— decreased to 30.7% from 31.9%, a new series’ low.</li> <li>The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased from 12.6% to 10.9%, reaching a new series’ low. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also decreased to 18.6% from 18.7%, staying close to its trailing 12-month average of 18.1%.</li> <li>The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months (if one’s current job were lost) increased by 0.2 percentage point to 54.2%, its highest reading since February 2020. The increase was driven by those with at least some college education. The series remains substantially below its 2019 average of 59.8%.</li> </ul> <b>Household Finance</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>6 月份,未来一年预期盈利增长率中位数上升 0.1 个百分点至 2.6%,为疫情开始(2020 年 2 月)以来的最高读数。这一增长是由至少受过一些大学教育的受访者推动的。</li><li>平均失业预期--或者说一年后美国失业率上升的平均概率--从31.9%降至30.7%,创下新系列的新低。</li><li>未来 12 个月内失业的平均感知概率从 12.6% 下降到 10.9%,创下一系列新低。未来 12 个月内自愿离职的平均概率也从 18.7% 降至 18.6%,接近过去 12 个月的平均水平 18.1%。</li><li>未来三个月内找到工作的平均感知概率(如果失去目前的工作)上升了 0.2 个百分点,达到 54.2%,为 2020 年 2 月以来的最高值。这种增长是由那些至少受过一些大学教育的人推动的。该系列仍远低于 2019 年 59.8% 的平均水平。</li></ul><b>家庭金融</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>The median expected year-ahead household income growth increased to 3.0% in June from 2.8%. The increase was broad-based across age, income, and education groups.</li> <li>Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%, reaching a new series’ high. The increase was most pronounced for respondents with some college education.</li> <li>Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago slightly improved. In contrast, expectations for future credit availability deteriorated, with more respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead.</li> <li>The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased to 9.6% from 9.7%. The series remains below its 2020 average of 11.4%.</li> <li>The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) declined slightly to 4.6% from 4.7%.</li> <li>The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.5 percentage point to 29.9%. This is the highest reading of the series since May 2019. The increase was driven by those with an annual household income over $100,000.</li> <li>Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated, with more respondents reporting to be worse off compared to a year ago. In contrast, respondents were slightly more optimistic about their households’ financial situations in the year ahead.</li> <li>The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 40.2%, staying below its 2020 average of 44.3%.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>6 月份家庭收入同比增长率中值从 2.8% 升至 3.0%。这种增长在年龄、收入和教育群体中是广泛的。</li><li>家庭支出增长预期中位数上升了 0.2 个百分点,达到 5.2%,创下一系列新高。受过大学教育的受访者的增长最为明显。</li><li>与一年前相比,对信贷获取的看法略有改善。相比之下,对未来信贷可用性的预期恶化,更多受访者预计未来一年获得信贷将更加困难。</li><li>未来三个月未能偿还最低债务的平均感知概率从 9.7% 降至 9.6%。该系列仍低于 2020 年 11.4% 的平均水平。</li><li>对税收提前一年变化的预期中值(在当前收入水平下)从4.7%小幅下降至4.6%。</li><li>储蓄账户平均利率在12个月内上升的平均感知概率增加了0.5个百分点,达到29.9%。这是自2019年5月以来该系列的最高读数。这一增长是由家庭年收入超过10万美元的人推动的。</li><li>与一年前相比,对家庭当前财务状况的看法有所恶化,更多的受访者表示与一年前相比情况更糟。相比之下,受访者对未来一年家庭的财务状况则略显乐观。</li><li>从现在起 12 个月后美国股价走高的平均感知概率下降了 0.5 个百分点,至 40.2%,仍低于 2020 年 44.3% 的平均水平。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnything But Transitory: Consumers Expect Inflation In One Year To Soar To 4.8%<blockquote>绝不是暂时的:消费者预计一年内通胀率将飙升至 4.8%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-13 08:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While central banks, tenured economists and the financial media are doing<i>everything</i>in their propaganda power to convince Americans that the current phase of hyperinflation is merely transitory (although it now appears that even the Fed is getting some doubts writing in its semi-annual monetary policy report that inflation is \"<i><b>more lasting but likely still temporary</b></i>\" until proven otherwise, of course), the shocking reality on the ground is that the Fed has effectively lost control over near-term inflation expectations, as the NY Fed's own survey of consumer expectations reveals.</p><p><blockquote>当央行、终身经济学家和财经媒体<i>一切</i>在他们的宣传力量中,美国人相信当前的恶性通货膨胀只是暂时的(尽管现在看来,即使是美联储在其半年度货币政策报告中写道,通货膨胀是“<i><b>更持久但可能仍然是暂时的</b></i>“当然,除非另有证明),当地令人震惊的现实是,正如纽约联储自己对消费者预期的调查所显示的那样,美联储实际上已经失去了对近期通胀预期的控制。</blockquote></p><p> According to the latest, June, installment of this closely watched survey, consumer inflation expectations for one year ahead, jumped by the most on record,<b>surging by 0.8% in one month, from 4.0% in May to an all-time high for this series of 4.8% in June.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据这项备受关注的6月份最新调查,消费者对未来一年的通胀预期跃升至有记录以来的最大水平,<b>一个月内飙升 0.8%,从 5 月份的 4.0% 升至 6 月份该系列的历史新高 4.8%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/687424aa9936131fc5fd4fb975eb16c9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"225\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As the NY Fed details, \"the increase in the short-term measure was driven mostly by respondents who have some college education. Our measures of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) reached new series’ highs at both horizons.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如纽约联储所详细说明的那样,“短期指标的增加主要是由受过一定大学教育的受访者推动的。我们对受访者之间的分歧(通胀预期第 75 个百分位和第 25 个百分位之间的差异)的衡量标准在这两个层面都达到了新系列的最高值”。</blockquote></p><p> There was some hope that the US won't end up as Weimar in the Fed's median inflation expectations for the three-year horizon which, unlike the 1-Year spot, were little changed from the prior month at 3.6%. Still, arguing that inflation at 3.6% in 3 years is acceptable to the Fed's formerly dual mandate (which has since grown toSocial Justice, Race, Gender Issues, Climate Change And Inequality), is at best laughable.</p><p><blockquote>人们希望美国不会像美联储三年期通胀预期中值那样陷入魏玛,与一年期通胀预期不同,该预期与上个月的 3.6% 相比变化不大。尽管如此,认为3年内3.6%的通胀率是美联储以前的双重任务(此后已扩展到社会正义、种族、性别问题、气候变化和不平等)可以接受的,充其量是可笑的。</blockquote></p><p> However, in a testament to just how sticky most Americans expect inflation to be, the most valuable (and widespread) middle-class asset - housing - is expected to rise at near-record levels<b>with the median year-ahead home price change expectations at 6.2% in June, substantially higher than its 12-months trailing average of 3.7%,</b>if well below the current double-digit pace of home price increase which has pushed the average home price to a new all-time high. According to the Fed, \"Median year-ahead home price growth uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding year-ahead home price growth outcomes—increased and reached a new series high.\"</p><p><blockquote>然而,最有价值(也是最普遍)的中产阶级资产——住房——预计将升至接近创纪录的水平,这证明了大多数美国人对通胀的预期有多粘性<b>6 月份房价同比变化预期中值为 6.2%,远高于 12 个月追踪平均水平 3.7%,</b>如果远低于目前两位数的房价增长速度,这已经将平均房价推至历史新高。美联储表示,“未来一年房价增长不确定性中位数——或有关未来一年房价增长结果的不确定性——增加并达到新的系列高点。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730babaea29df064660a7f25212d1a82\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"439\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Looking at a breakdown of inflation expectations by commodity, the median one-year ahead expected change in the cost of college education increased to 7.0% from 6.1% in May, its highest reading since April 2019. In contrast, the median expected changes in the price of food and gasoline decreased to 7.1% and 9.2%, respectively, from 8.0% and 9.8% in May. The median expected change in the cost of medical care and rent remained unchanged at 9.4% and 9.7%; elsewhere medical costs are expected to rise 9.36%; and rent prices will rise 9.66%.</p><p><blockquote>从按商品划分的通胀预期细分来看,大学教育成本未来一年预期变化的中位数从5月份的6.1%升至7.0%,为2019年4月以来的最高读数。相比之下,食品和汽油价格的预期变动中位数分别从5月份的8.0%和9.8%降至7.1%和9.2%。医疗费用和租金的预期变化中位数保持不变,分别为9.4%和9.7%;其他地方医疗费用预计上涨9.36%;租金价格将上涨9.66%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/003d8db78cc2804186ff076cccec3077\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"435\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Some other notable highlights from the survey: 9.59% (vs 9.69% in the prior month), expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months; the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months fell from 12.6% to 10.9%, hitting new series low which is to be expected in a country with record numbers of job openings.</p><p><blockquote>调查中的其他一些值得注意的亮点:9.59%(上个月为9.69%),预计在未来三个月内无法偿还最低债务;未来 12 个月内失业的平均感知概率从 12.6% 降至 10.9%,创下了一个职位空缺数量创纪录的国家的新低。</blockquote></p><p> Some more details from the Fed's survey:</p><p><blockquote>美联储调查的更多细节:</blockquote></p><p> <b>Labor Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>劳动力市场</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Median one-year ahead expected earnings growth increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% in June, its highest reading since the start of the pandemic (February 2020). The increase was driven by respondents who have at least some college education.</li> <li>Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now— decreased to 30.7% from 31.9%, a new series’ low.</li> <li>The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased from 12.6% to 10.9%, reaching a new series’ low. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also decreased to 18.6% from 18.7%, staying close to its trailing 12-month average of 18.1%.</li> <li>The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months (if one’s current job were lost) increased by 0.2 percentage point to 54.2%, its highest reading since February 2020. The increase was driven by those with at least some college education. The series remains substantially below its 2019 average of 59.8%.</li> </ul> <b>Household Finance</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>6 月份,未来一年预期盈利增长率中位数上升 0.1 个百分点至 2.6%,为疫情开始(2020 年 2 月)以来的最高读数。这一增长是由至少受过一些大学教育的受访者推动的。</li><li>平均失业预期--或者说一年后美国失业率上升的平均概率--从31.9%降至30.7%,创下新系列的新低。</li><li>未来 12 个月内失业的平均感知概率从 12.6% 下降到 10.9%,创下一系列新低。未来 12 个月内自愿离职的平均概率也从 18.7% 降至 18.6%,接近过去 12 个月的平均水平 18.1%。</li><li>未来三个月内找到工作的平均感知概率(如果失去目前的工作)上升了 0.2 个百分点,达到 54.2%,为 2020 年 2 月以来的最高值。这种增长是由那些至少受过一些大学教育的人推动的。该系列仍远低于 2019 年 59.8% 的平均水平。</li></ul><b>家庭金融</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>The median expected year-ahead household income growth increased to 3.0% in June from 2.8%. The increase was broad-based across age, income, and education groups.</li> <li>Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%, reaching a new series’ high. The increase was most pronounced for respondents with some college education.</li> <li>Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago slightly improved. In contrast, expectations for future credit availability deteriorated, with more respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead.</li> <li>The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased to 9.6% from 9.7%. The series remains below its 2020 average of 11.4%.</li> <li>The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) declined slightly to 4.6% from 4.7%.</li> <li>The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.5 percentage point to 29.9%. This is the highest reading of the series since May 2019. The increase was driven by those with an annual household income over $100,000.</li> <li>Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated, with more respondents reporting to be worse off compared to a year ago. In contrast, respondents were slightly more optimistic about their households’ financial situations in the year ahead.</li> <li>The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 40.2%, staying below its 2020 average of 44.3%.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>6 月份家庭收入同比增长率中值从 2.8% 升至 3.0%。这种增长在年龄、收入和教育群体中是广泛的。</li><li>家庭支出增长预期中位数上升了 0.2 个百分点,达到 5.2%,创下一系列新高。受过大学教育的受访者的增长最为明显。</li><li>与一年前相比,对信贷获取的看法略有改善。相比之下,对未来信贷可用性的预期恶化,更多受访者预计未来一年获得信贷将更加困难。</li><li>未来三个月未能偿还最低债务的平均感知概率从 9.7% 降至 9.6%。该系列仍低于 2020 年 11.4% 的平均水平。</li><li>对税收提前一年变化的预期中值(在当前收入水平下)从4.7%小幅下降至4.6%。</li><li>储蓄账户平均利率在12个月内上升的平均感知概率增加了0.5个百分点,达到29.9%。这是自2019年5月以来该系列的最高读数。这一增长是由家庭年收入超过10万美元的人推动的。</li><li>与一年前相比,对家庭当前财务状况的看法有所恶化,更多的受访者表示与一年前相比情况更糟。相比之下,受访者对未来一年家庭的财务状况则略显乐观。</li><li>从现在起 12 个月后美国股价走高的平均感知概率下降了 0.5 个百分点,至 40.2%,仍低于 2020 年 44.3% 的平均水平。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/anything-transitory-consumers-expect-inflation-one-year-soar-record-48\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/anything-transitory-consumers-expect-inflation-one-year-soar-record-48","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161134258","content_text":"While central banks, tenured economists and the financial media are doingeverythingin their propaganda power to convince Americans that the current phase of hyperinflation is merely transitory (although it now appears that even the Fed is getting some doubts writing in its semi-annual monetary policy report that inflation is \"more lasting but likely still temporary\" until proven otherwise, of course), the shocking reality on the ground is that the Fed has effectively lost control over near-term inflation expectations, as the NY Fed's own survey of consumer expectations reveals.\nAccording to the latest, June, installment of this closely watched survey, consumer inflation expectations for one year ahead, jumped by the most on record,surging by 0.8% in one month, from 4.0% in May to an all-time high for this series of 4.8% in June.\n\nAs the NY Fed details, \"the increase in the short-term measure was driven mostly by respondents who have some college education. Our measures of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) reached new series’ highs at both horizons.\"\nThere was some hope that the US won't end up as Weimar in the Fed's median inflation expectations for the three-year horizon which, unlike the 1-Year spot, were little changed from the prior month at 3.6%. Still, arguing that inflation at 3.6% in 3 years is acceptable to the Fed's formerly dual mandate (which has since grown toSocial Justice, Race, Gender Issues, Climate Change And Inequality), is at best laughable.\nHowever, in a testament to just how sticky most Americans expect inflation to be, the most valuable (and widespread) middle-class asset - housing - is expected to rise at near-record levelswith the median year-ahead home price change expectations at 6.2% in June, substantially higher than its 12-months trailing average of 3.7%,if well below the current double-digit pace of home price increase which has pushed the average home price to a new all-time high. According to the Fed, \"Median year-ahead home price growth uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding year-ahead home price growth outcomes—increased and reached a new series high.\"\n\nLooking at a breakdown of inflation expectations by commodity, the median one-year ahead expected change in the cost of college education increased to 7.0% from 6.1% in May, its highest reading since April 2019. In contrast, the median expected changes in the price of food and gasoline decreased to 7.1% and 9.2%, respectively, from 8.0% and 9.8% in May. The median expected change in the cost of medical care and rent remained unchanged at 9.4% and 9.7%; elsewhere medical costs are expected to rise 9.36%; and rent prices will rise 9.66%.\n\nSome other notable highlights from the survey: 9.59% (vs 9.69% in the prior month), expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months; the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months fell from 12.6% to 10.9%, hitting new series low which is to be expected in a country with record numbers of job openings.\nSome more details from the Fed's survey:\nLabor Market\n\nMedian one-year ahead expected earnings growth increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% in June, its highest reading since the start of the pandemic (February 2020). The increase was driven by respondents who have at least some college education.\nMean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now— decreased to 30.7% from 31.9%, a new series’ low.\nThe mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased from 12.6% to 10.9%, reaching a new series’ low. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also decreased to 18.6% from 18.7%, staying close to its trailing 12-month average of 18.1%.\nThe mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months (if one’s current job were lost) increased by 0.2 percentage point to 54.2%, its highest reading since February 2020. The increase was driven by those with at least some college education. The series remains substantially below its 2019 average of 59.8%.\n\nHousehold Finance\n\nThe median expected year-ahead household income growth increased to 3.0% in June from 2.8%. The increase was broad-based across age, income, and education groups.\nMedian household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%, reaching a new series’ high. The increase was most pronounced for respondents with some college education.\nPerceptions of credit access compared to a year ago slightly improved. In contrast, expectations for future credit availability deteriorated, with more respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead.\nThe average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased to 9.6% from 9.7%. The series remains below its 2020 average of 11.4%.\nThe median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) declined slightly to 4.6% from 4.7%.\nThe mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.5 percentage point to 29.9%. This is the highest reading of the series since May 2019. The increase was driven by those with an annual household income over $100,000.\nPerceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated, with more respondents reporting to be worse off compared to a year ago. In contrast, respondents were slightly more optimistic about their households’ financial situations in the year ahead.\nThe mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 40.2%, staying below its 2020 average of 44.3%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142863885,"gmtCreate":1626141328947,"gmtModify":1631890787548,"author":{"id":"3575074532947939","authorId":"3575074532947939","name":"Jeric87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575074532947939","authorIdStr":"3575074532947939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142863885","repostId":"1149354714","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127985720,"gmtCreate":1624816284860,"gmtModify":1631890787550,"author":{"id":"3575074532947939","authorId":"3575074532947939","name":"Jeric87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575074532947939","authorIdStr":"3575074532947939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"is this realistic?","listText":"is this realistic?","text":"is this realistic?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127985720","repostId":"1117734317","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117734317","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624759414,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117734317?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场:熊案</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117734317","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong re","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li> <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li> <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li> <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li> <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看,Square 似乎是一家成长型公司,也是一项良好的投资,具有强劲的收入增长和庞大的现金应用程序用户群。</li><li>事实上,该公司一直在努力将营收转化为利润。</li><li>这导致 Square 扩大其产品,以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的,而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看,它的现金应用故事似乎是一个萌芽的前景,但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和日益增长的比特币阻力,Square 可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the most popular stocks among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.(纽约证券交易所股票代码:SQ)是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一,在 Robinhood 的 100 强排名中排名第 57 位。这导致去年价格上涨了 135%,使 SQ 的市值超过 1000 亿美元,与中型公司的波动性相媲美。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a banking license via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看,价格和估值似乎是合理的,该公司通过 Cash App、比特币 (BTC-USD)、PPP 贷款逐步增加收入并扩大产品组合,最近还通过 Square Financial Services 凭借银行牌照深耕商业贷款业务。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而,由于对严重依赖比特币收入的未来收入预测的猜测,这些估值正逐渐脱离公司及其核心业务的基本面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,数据来自 SQ Investor Relations(Q1 2021 历史财务信息)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外,SQ 还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题;政策和法规;以及一般宏观经济因素,这些因素可能会产生不利因素,影响其估值,并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险,我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商,促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易,并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外,它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务,该应用程序似乎正在呈指数级增长,允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金,最近还推出了比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:SQ 投资者关系(2021 年第一季度股东信 - 现金应用程序流入与毛利润)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the company has received a Banking License from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月,该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)颁发的银行许可证,可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息,根据未来增长预测,该股在过去 3 年中上涨了 330% 以上,并且自 2020 年以来一直追赶收入预期,这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见,因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外,美联储看似无休止的印钞,加上零利率,意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,使用 YCHARTS 的数据(SQ 与每股收益预测和 2021 年收入预测)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而,在2021年第一季度,随着印刷放缓,收益率开始上升,联邦政府对个人的转移支付消散,因此不断增加的收入预期开始对市场意味着更少,导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,使用 YCHARTS 数据(年初至今平方价)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止,SQ 相对于支付处理行业表现良好,为股东带来了约 12% 的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector >$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,使用 YCHARTS 的数据(SQ 与支付处理行业今年迄今为止 >500 亿美元)</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在远期收益和收入的基础上与这些公司进行评估时,也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021 年和 2022 年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数,2021 年收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,行业比较(支付处理商)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比,SQ 的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了,但其远期市盈率相对较小,低于行业平均水平和中位数,这或许证明了其当前价值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而,一旦你从等式中删除比特币收入,你就会得到更夸张的前瞻性 PS 估计,而收入增长要低得多,而收入增长代表了 SQ 的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于这个等式,我从 2021 年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入,并根据分析师的平均预期(该预期显示 2021 年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有或没有连续增长)来判断,将该数字乘以 4 倍,年终收入估计为 61.4070 亿美元。前几年,我已经将比特币从收入中剔除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,SQ 收入增长(2018 年至 2021 年比特币与不包括比特币的预测)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,SQ 与行业比较(收入估计不包括比特币)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的,这描绘了一幅非常不同的公司图景,虽然收入增长仍略高于同样具有高市盈率的竞争对手,但突然之间,盈利估值看起来更有意义,并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平 3 倍,高于中位数 4.5 倍。尤其是当美国运通公司(AXP)、万事达卡公司(MA)、PayPal控股公司(PYPL)和维萨卡公司(V)等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息,并具有类似的增长估计,波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要,因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分,除了交易量之外,重要的是”。不过,我举一个 2018 年比特币抛售的例子,其中比特币下跌了 70%,交易量也从高点下降了约 75%:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Bitcoinvisuals.com(2018年比特币市场交易量)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看,如果比特币因全球监管加强而继续回调,这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险,因为该公司基本上是根据比特币支撑的收入指标进行交易的。很简单,比特币的价格下降可能意味着收入预期的下调,从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,使用 YCHARTS 的数据(平方价格相关性 - 收入、每股收益和 EBITDA)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性,这种情况变得越来越有可能,而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者(SQ 与行业比较隐含和已实现波动性以及空头利息)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend in which the author suggests that SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的分析, 作者认为 SQ 2025 年的增长基本上是在我不得不同意的价值趋势中定价的。SQ 对收入预测的依赖(比特币大幅放大了收入预测)给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中,但许多事情仍然不确定,如需求可持续性水平、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的,但在我们得出结论之前,有几个表面之下的宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小型企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示,近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统(小企业)。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:SQ Investor Relations(Q1 2021 10Q 第 39 页 - 分部毛利润)</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with <$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自总付款额<500,000美元的卖家(69.5%)。这使得square在很大程度上受到小商业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:SQ投资者关系(2021年第一季度股东信)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究商业形成统计数据,有一幅美好的画面,2021年5月超过500,000份商业申请为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Census.gov(商业应用,2021 年 5 月)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样,当我们更深入地挖掘并查看对老牌小企业乐观情绪进行排名的统计数据时,情况开始扭曲,并开始看起来像2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:NFIB(小企业经济趋势 - 乐观,2021 年 5 月)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外,当我们审视小企业未来的扩张前景时,这也降至低点,与2008年的情况类似。这可能表明 SQ 毛利率的面包和黄油可能不会以之前 2017 年至 2020 年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:NFIB(小企业经济趋势 - 展望,2021 年 5 月)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外,应该指出的是,小企业给出其负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”,这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关,并且有些短暂。或者,它可能类似于 2008 年至 2016 年的缓慢 3 月,我们根本不知道,除了这是一个较低的读数,因此可能会影响 SQ 的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:NFIB(小企业经济趋势 - 展望原因,2021 年 5 月)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来,SQ 显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极,因为他们拥有庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、自 2014 年以来的经验以及于 2021 年 5 月 31 日停止的 PPP 计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前,由于新冠疫情的复苏努力,银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:YCHARTS(美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the monthly NFIB report. Although, an American Banker survey is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此,美国银行家调查报告称,86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷,不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of capital restraints placed on Wells Fargo & Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对 SQ 来说是积极的,因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的,因为有人猜测,当美联储缩减规模时,他们也将宣布解除对富国银行公司(WFC)的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:瑞士信贷(全球货币快报 - 2021 年 5 月 25 日)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had lifted these restraints to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在 2020 年初取消了这些限制,以通过 PPP 计划帮助小企业,而缩减规模有着扰乱市场的历史,这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果这种情况发生,我怀疑 WFC 将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头,并且由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史,将成为 SQ 的强劲竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation & Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和根斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor banks have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间,比特币一直是头条新闻,这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎,并表现出非凡的升值。此外,一些小银行对这种媒介感兴趣,尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用他们的服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关,如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量,以及我不想参与的类似活动,银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China and India.</p><p><blockquote>因此,在最近的炒作中,许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用,但其他国家更进一步,正在制定立法禁止其使用和开采,最明显的是中国和印度。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自 2021 年 5 月 ATHs 以来,这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响,约为 65,000 美元,此后回撤了 -46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的,因为大部分比特币采矿是在中国进行的(年初至今约70%),采矿的算力与价格相关。因此,如果这些价格因中国采矿活动减少而下降,价格肯定会随之下跌,从而影响 SQ 的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:剑桥大学(剑桥比特币年初至今电力消耗指数)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to 2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国证券交易委员会已经出面表示比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上,但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的法规方面也有着悠久的历史,尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程,但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来,总体而言,这对比特币和 SQ 来说不是好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采纳,对其价格产生负面影响,导致 2018 年产量下降以及采矿活动重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济 - 零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout 2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外,我们也可能看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏大部分并非由“被压抑的需求”推动,而是主要通过 2020 年全年和 2021 年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时,我们可以看到,一旦你减去转移收据(政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线),收入就不是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:圣路易斯联邦储备银行(可支配收入与实际收入减去转移支付与个人储蓄与零售贸易销售额)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外,我们可以看到,零售销售的大部分飙升(紫色)主要是由刺激支票推动的,刺激支票支票支撑了可支配收入(蓝色)和消费者储蓄(绿色),尽管现在刺激已经结束,人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄,3月至4月期间,储蓄环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is considered to be the most revealing amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在研究U6失业率时,消费者支出情况变得更糟,经济学家认为U6失业率是最能说明问题的,因为它包括失业、就业不足和沮丧的求职者。总的来说,这对未来的可自由支配消费模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Macrotrends.net(U6 失业率 vs U5 失业率 vs 官方数据)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后,食品和能源成本的上涨(我预计食品成本将持续上涨)应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我之前写过关于马赛克公司(MOS)和安德森公司(ANDE)的文章,概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ,我们可以根据2019年底的数据看到他们对非必需消费品支出的历史敞口。当考虑以下数字时:零售;专业服务、美容和个人护理、家居和维修、休闲和娱乐以及休闲使用,总敞口约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Statista(Raynor de Best - 卖家行业 GPV,2019 年 12 月)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重,这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响,但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据,并随着刺激措施进一步消退,对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时,我们可以很容易地看到,比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素(MRQ占总收入的69%),其估值就是由此得出的(参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分;和定量部分-SQ价格相关性)。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>从他们2021年第一季度股东信第12页中,他们表示,截至2021年3月31日,他们持有的股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元,约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示,他们最初在这一时期和第四季度向比特币投资了 2 亿美元,因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币 25,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前,比特币的价格约为34,600美元,它似乎也在努力寻找牵引力,特别是当你检查一些其他趋势时。例如,看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势,这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Google Trends(购买比特币搜索词 - 全球 5 年)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外,当你将这些数据与刺激支付进行比较时,很明显两者之间在2020年下半年存在关系,最近的许多猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:USA.Gov(新冠刺激支票日期)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间,滞后几天到几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源:Google Trends(购买比特币搜索词 - 美国 12 个月)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:YCHARTS(比特币价格 1 年)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此,在这个例子中,如果我们持续抛售-70%,这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月大约20,000美元的比特币价格。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上,这仍然是可行的。也可以推测,SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用,这将极大地影响经营利润、净利润和股东收益以及未来预测。尽管这纯粹是理论上的,没有考虑本季度的交易,例如在 ATHs 或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外,由于未来缺乏刺激付款和消费者可自由支配支出收紧,随着进入该领域的资金减少和交易量下降,比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对 SQ 的收入预测以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看,Cash App 似乎正在呈指数级增长,成为用户交易的可行平台,每月交易活跃客户超过 3600 万,同比增长 50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:SQ投资者关系(2020年第四季度股东信)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而,现金应用程序的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的,SQ 在其季度备案说明中对此进行了详细阐述:</blockquote></p><p> Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from <b>government relief programs</b> most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors. <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i> Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App 收入受益于活跃 Cash App 客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律,以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业救济,导致消费者支出和流入我们的现金应用生态系统的增加。Cash App 的收入增长可能不会在未来几个季度保持在相同的水平,并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源:SQ 投资者关系(2021 年第一季度第 10 季度文件 - 第 49 页)</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由现金应用生态系统的刺激支付推动的,因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升:</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>April 12-18 2020</li> <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合,因为他们最初发送刺激付款,并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Google Trends(现金应用搜索词 - 美国 5 年)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此,随着政府刺激付款的结束,比特币再次失去相关性,越来越多的人重返工作岗位,减少日内交易,这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响,影响 SQ 收入预期、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外,还有许多其他更可行的平台,另一位寻求阿尔法贡献者价值趋势在这里详细阐述了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户,“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下:</blockquote></p><p> ... has at least <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period. <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i> So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源:SQ Investor Relations(2020 年第四季度股东信 - 第 4 页)</i>因此,如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金,并每月一次将其全部转入他们的银行账户,他们就是“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许“活跃”客户的更好量化指标是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查 SQ 的技术面,很明显该股目前在 200 美元至 280 美元之间波动,多次尝试突破 250 美元,两次尝试在 300 美元附近失败,显示出一些势头正在消退的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,数据来自 FINVIZ(SQ 图)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流量时,由于暗池处于低位,当前的涨势有可能继续,这可能会持续到 8 月份的收益。虽然我不会抱太大希望,除非出现一些严肃的好消息,比特币重返ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Squeezemetrics.com(SQ Dark Pools 与 Implied Vol 2 年)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中我们也可以看到,不少基金都减少了敞口,平仓,新进持仓较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高,尤其是对于一只市值达 1000 亿美元的股票来说,这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>不过,需要谨慎,因为 SQ 与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易,当这些看跌期权被解除时,伽马可能会变为正,这可能会导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Whalewisdom.com(SQ基金定位)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been significant liquidity issues the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外,关于 ARK ETF,过去 6 个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了,我同意另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的论点,即我们将看到这些 ETF 中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是,凯西已经大大减少了她对SQ的接触,她可能会选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Cathiesark.com(持有的 SQ 股票 - 所有 ETF)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息,这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报,要么会因为它的波动性而撕掉你的脸。此外,许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行一定程度的投资。因此,如果你要自担风险将其交易为空头,建议谨慎行事,你应该始终选择你的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据 SQ ATR 的波动性,SQ 可能会在今年年底跌至约 100 美元的低点,有 40% 的时间是有利的。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除,这与我2021年底的价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源:作者(SQ ATR计算器)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而,这样做是不明智的,因为这是他们收入的一部分,无论2021年初的比特币销量有多高,年底的销量有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试 200 美元,可能跌至 160 美元。虽然用SQ确定估值非常困难,主要是因为估值来自比特币收入,也来自基金和市场在未来采用资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场开始再次认为比特币无关紧要,我预计 SQ 将慢慢抛售至 150 美元至 160 美元之间(-37% 下行空间),并且不太可能反弹至 300 美元以上(25% 上行空间)。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ,应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ,公司都在成长。主要问题是:市场价值比特币会有任何现实的基础吗?有没有比特币,它增长了多少?有没有比特币,未来的潜在增长是多少?市场相信吗,或者就此而言,市场在乎吗?</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性,从谷歌趋势来看,更有可能的是,假设 SQ 将因此而在 2021 年下半年遭受损失,并对收入预期造成重大打击,这并不奇怪。然而,如果比特币的采用率增加,负面新闻消失,因为这是一家成长型公司,它可能会继续反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外,消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据,上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化,例如申请将增加经济支出的工作,并有望促进小企业增长,增加小企业乐观情绪和扩张,这对SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性业务非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样,谨慎是必要的,尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长是有价格的,SQ 持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ 是一家高增长公司,从长远来看有一些潜在的积极因素;然而,其估值非常值得怀疑,因为其高收入估计主要来自比特币交易,而不是底线盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从数量的角度来看,它在同行中看起来不错,但经过进一步检查,它似乎被严重高估了,因为未来的增长,至少在2021年,可能来自比特币。此外,如果没有政府的持续刺激,其现金应用程序采用统计数据可能不会继续保持同样的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外,它还面临着几个潜在的宏观经济障碍,涉及小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场:熊案</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场:熊案</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li> <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li> <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li> <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li> <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看,Square 似乎是一家成长型公司,也是一项良好的投资,具有强劲的收入增长和庞大的现金应用程序用户群。</li><li>事实上,该公司一直在努力将营收转化为利润。</li><li>这导致 Square 扩大其产品,以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的,而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看,它的现金应用故事似乎是一个萌芽的前景,但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和日益增长的比特币阻力,Square 可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the most popular stocks among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.(纽约证券交易所股票代码:SQ)是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一,在 Robinhood 的 100 强排名中排名第 57 位。这导致去年价格上涨了 135%,使 SQ 的市值超过 1000 亿美元,与中型公司的波动性相媲美。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a banking license via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看,价格和估值似乎是合理的,该公司通过 Cash App、比特币 (BTC-USD)、PPP 贷款逐步增加收入并扩大产品组合,最近还通过 Square Financial Services 凭借银行牌照深耕商业贷款业务。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而,由于对严重依赖比特币收入的未来收入预测的猜测,这些估值正逐渐脱离公司及其核心业务的基本面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,数据来自 SQ Investor Relations(Q1 2021 历史财务信息)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外,SQ 还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题;政策和法规;以及一般宏观经济因素,这些因素可能会产生不利因素,影响其估值,并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险,我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商,促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易,并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外,它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务,该应用程序似乎正在呈指数级增长,允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金,最近还推出了比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:SQ 投资者关系(2021 年第一季度股东信 - 现金应用程序流入与毛利润)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the company has received a Banking License from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月,该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)颁发的银行许可证,可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息,根据未来增长预测,该股在过去 3 年中上涨了 330% 以上,并且自 2020 年以来一直追赶收入预期,这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见,因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外,美联储看似无休止的印钞,加上零利率,意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,使用 YCHARTS 的数据(SQ 与每股收益预测和 2021 年收入预测)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而,在2021年第一季度,随着印刷放缓,收益率开始上升,联邦政府对个人的转移支付消散,因此不断增加的收入预期开始对市场意味着更少,导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,使用 YCHARTS 数据(年初至今平方价)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止,SQ 相对于支付处理行业表现良好,为股东带来了约 12% 的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector >$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,使用 YCHARTS 的数据(SQ 与支付处理行业今年迄今为止 >500 亿美元)</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在远期收益和收入的基础上与这些公司进行评估时,也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021 年和 2022 年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数,2021 年收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,行业比较(支付处理商)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比,SQ 的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了,但其远期市盈率相对较小,低于行业平均水平和中位数,这或许证明了其当前价值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而,一旦你从等式中删除比特币收入,你就会得到更夸张的前瞻性 PS 估计,而收入增长要低得多,而收入增长代表了 SQ 的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于这个等式,我从 2021 年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入,并根据分析师的平均预期(该预期显示 2021 年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有或没有连续增长)来判断,将该数字乘以 4 倍,年终收入估计为 61.4070 亿美元。前几年,我已经将比特币从收入中剔除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,SQ 收入增长(2018 年至 2021 年比特币与不包括比特币的预测)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,SQ 与行业比较(收入估计不包括比特币)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的,这描绘了一幅非常不同的公司图景,虽然收入增长仍略高于同样具有高市盈率的竞争对手,但突然之间,盈利估值看起来更有意义,并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平 3 倍,高于中位数 4.5 倍。尤其是当美国运通公司(AXP)、万事达卡公司(MA)、PayPal控股公司(PYPL)和维萨卡公司(V)等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息,并具有类似的增长估计,波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要,因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分,除了交易量之外,重要的是”。不过,我举一个 2018 年比特币抛售的例子,其中比特币下跌了 70%,交易量也从高点下降了约 75%:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Bitcoinvisuals.com(2018年比特币市场交易量)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看,如果比特币因全球监管加强而继续回调,这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险,因为该公司基本上是根据比特币支撑的收入指标进行交易的。很简单,比特币的价格下降可能意味着收入预期的下调,从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,使用 YCHARTS 的数据(平方价格相关性 - 收入、每股收益和 EBITDA)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性,这种情况变得越来越有可能,而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者(SQ 与行业比较隐含和已实现波动性以及空头利息)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend in which the author suggests that SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的分析, 作者认为 SQ 2025 年的增长基本上是在我不得不同意的价值趋势中定价的。SQ 对收入预测的依赖(比特币大幅放大了收入预测)给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中,但许多事情仍然不确定,如需求可持续性水平、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的,但在我们得出结论之前,有几个表面之下的宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小型企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示,近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统(小企业)。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:SQ Investor Relations(Q1 2021 10Q 第 39 页 - 分部毛利润)</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with <$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自总付款额<500,000美元的卖家(69.5%)。这使得square在很大程度上受到小商业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:SQ投资者关系(2021年第一季度股东信)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究商业形成统计数据,有一幅美好的画面,2021年5月超过500,000份商业申请为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Census.gov(商业应用,2021 年 5 月)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样,当我们更深入地挖掘并查看对老牌小企业乐观情绪进行排名的统计数据时,情况开始扭曲,并开始看起来像2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:NFIB(小企业经济趋势 - 乐观,2021 年 5 月)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外,当我们审视小企业未来的扩张前景时,这也降至低点,与2008年的情况类似。这可能表明 SQ 毛利率的面包和黄油可能不会以之前 2017 年至 2020 年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:NFIB(小企业经济趋势 - 展望,2021 年 5 月)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外,应该指出的是,小企业给出其负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”,这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关,并且有些短暂。或者,它可能类似于 2008 年至 2016 年的缓慢 3 月,我们根本不知道,除了这是一个较低的读数,因此可能会影响 SQ 的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:NFIB(小企业经济趋势 - 展望原因,2021 年 5 月)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来,SQ 显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极,因为他们拥有庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、自 2014 年以来的经验以及于 2021 年 5 月 31 日停止的 PPP 计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前,由于新冠疫情的复苏努力,银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:YCHARTS(美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the monthly NFIB report. Although, an American Banker survey is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此,美国银行家调查报告称,86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷,不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of capital restraints placed on Wells Fargo & Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对 SQ 来说是积极的,因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的,因为有人猜测,当美联储缩减规模时,他们也将宣布解除对富国银行公司(WFC)的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:瑞士信贷(全球货币快报 - 2021 年 5 月 25 日)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had lifted these restraints to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在 2020 年初取消了这些限制,以通过 PPP 计划帮助小企业,而缩减规模有着扰乱市场的历史,这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果这种情况发生,我怀疑 WFC 将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头,并且由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史,将成为 SQ 的强劲竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation & Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和根斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor banks have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间,比特币一直是头条新闻,这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎,并表现出非凡的升值。此外,一些小银行对这种媒介感兴趣,尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用他们的服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关,如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量,以及我不想参与的类似活动,银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China and India.</p><p><blockquote>因此,在最近的炒作中,许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用,但其他国家更进一步,正在制定立法禁止其使用和开采,最明显的是中国和印度。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自 2021 年 5 月 ATHs 以来,这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响,约为 65,000 美元,此后回撤了 -46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的,因为大部分比特币采矿是在中国进行的(年初至今约70%),采矿的算力与价格相关。因此,如果这些价格因中国采矿活动减少而下降,价格肯定会随之下跌,从而影响 SQ 的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:剑桥大学(剑桥比特币年初至今电力消耗指数)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to 2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国证券交易委员会已经出面表示比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上,但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的法规方面也有着悠久的历史,尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程,但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来,总体而言,这对比特币和 SQ 来说不是好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采纳,对其价格产生负面影响,导致 2018 年产量下降以及采矿活动重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济 - 零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout 2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外,我们也可能看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏大部分并非由“被压抑的需求”推动,而是主要通过 2020 年全年和 2021 年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时,我们可以看到,一旦你减去转移收据(政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线),收入就不是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:圣路易斯联邦储备银行(可支配收入与实际收入减去转移支付与个人储蓄与零售贸易销售额)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外,我们可以看到,零售销售的大部分飙升(紫色)主要是由刺激支票推动的,刺激支票支票支撑了可支配收入(蓝色)和消费者储蓄(绿色),尽管现在刺激已经结束,人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄,3月至4月期间,储蓄环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is considered to be the most revealing amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在研究U6失业率时,消费者支出情况变得更糟,经济学家认为U6失业率是最能说明问题的,因为它包括失业、就业不足和沮丧的求职者。总的来说,这对未来的可自由支配消费模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Macrotrends.net(U6 失业率 vs U5 失业率 vs 官方数据)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后,食品和能源成本的上涨(我预计食品成本将持续上涨)应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我之前写过关于马赛克公司(MOS)和安德森公司(ANDE)的文章,概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ,我们可以根据2019年底的数据看到他们对非必需消费品支出的历史敞口。当考虑以下数字时:零售;专业服务、美容和个人护理、家居和维修、休闲和娱乐以及休闲使用,总敞口约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Statista(Raynor de Best - 卖家行业 GPV,2019 年 12 月)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重,这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响,但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据,并随着刺激措施进一步消退,对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时,我们可以很容易地看到,比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素(MRQ占总收入的69%),其估值就是由此得出的(参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分;和定量部分-SQ价格相关性)。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>从他们2021年第一季度股东信第12页中,他们表示,截至2021年3月31日,他们持有的股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元,约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示,他们最初在这一时期和第四季度向比特币投资了 2 亿美元,因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币 25,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前,比特币的价格约为34,600美元,它似乎也在努力寻找牵引力,特别是当你检查一些其他趋势时。例如,看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势,这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Google Trends(购买比特币搜索词 - 全球 5 年)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外,当你将这些数据与刺激支付进行比较时,很明显两者之间在2020年下半年存在关系,最近的许多猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:USA.Gov(新冠刺激支票日期)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间,滞后几天到几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源:Google Trends(购买比特币搜索词 - 美国 12 个月)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:YCHARTS(比特币价格 1 年)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此,在这个例子中,如果我们持续抛售-70%,这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月大约20,000美元的比特币价格。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上,这仍然是可行的。也可以推测,SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用,这将极大地影响经营利润、净利润和股东收益以及未来预测。尽管这纯粹是理论上的,没有考虑本季度的交易,例如在 ATHs 或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外,由于未来缺乏刺激付款和消费者可自由支配支出收紧,随着进入该领域的资金减少和交易量下降,比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对 SQ 的收入预测以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看,Cash App 似乎正在呈指数级增长,成为用户交易的可行平台,每月交易活跃客户超过 3600 万,同比增长 50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:SQ投资者关系(2020年第四季度股东信)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而,现金应用程序的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的,SQ 在其季度备案说明中对此进行了详细阐述:</blockquote></p><p> Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from <b>government relief programs</b> most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors. <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i> Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App 收入受益于活跃 Cash App 客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律,以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业救济,导致消费者支出和流入我们的现金应用生态系统的增加。Cash App 的收入增长可能不会在未来几个季度保持在相同的水平,并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源:SQ 投资者关系(2021 年第一季度第 10 季度文件 - 第 49 页)</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由现金应用生态系统的刺激支付推动的,因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升:</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>April 12-18 2020</li> <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合,因为他们最初发送刺激付款,并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Google Trends(现金应用搜索词 - 美国 5 年)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此,随着政府刺激付款的结束,比特币再次失去相关性,越来越多的人重返工作岗位,减少日内交易,这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响,影响 SQ 收入预期、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外,还有许多其他更可行的平台,另一位寻求阿尔法贡献者价值趋势在这里详细阐述了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户,“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下:</blockquote></p><p> ... has at least <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period. <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i> So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源:SQ Investor Relations(2020 年第四季度股东信 - 第 4 页)</i>因此,如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金,并每月一次将其全部转入他们的银行账户,他们就是“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许“活跃”客户的更好量化指标是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查 SQ 的技术面,很明显该股目前在 200 美元至 280 美元之间波动,多次尝试突破 250 美元,两次尝试在 300 美元附近失败,显示出一些势头正在消退的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者,数据来自 FINVIZ(SQ 图)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流量时,由于暗池处于低位,当前的涨势有可能继续,这可能会持续到 8 月份的收益。虽然我不会抱太大希望,除非出现一些严肃的好消息,比特币重返ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Squeezemetrics.com(SQ Dark Pools 与 Implied Vol 2 年)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中我们也可以看到,不少基金都减少了敞口,平仓,新进持仓较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高,尤其是对于一只市值达 1000 亿美元的股票来说,这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>不过,需要谨慎,因为 SQ 与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易,当这些看跌期权被解除时,伽马可能会变为正,这可能会导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Whalewisdom.com(SQ基金定位)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been significant liquidity issues the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外,关于 ARK ETF,过去 6 个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了,我同意另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的论点,即我们将看到这些 ETF 中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是,凯西已经大大减少了她对SQ的接触,她可能会选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Cathiesark.com(持有的 SQ 股票 - 所有 ETF)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息,这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报,要么会因为它的波动性而撕掉你的脸。此外,许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行一定程度的投资。因此,如果你要自担风险将其交易为空头,建议谨慎行事,你应该始终选择你的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据 SQ ATR 的波动性,SQ 可能会在今年年底跌至约 100 美元的低点,有 40% 的时间是有利的。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除,这与我2021年底的价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源:作者(SQ ATR计算器)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而,这样做是不明智的,因为这是他们收入的一部分,无论2021年初的比特币销量有多高,年底的销量有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试 200 美元,可能跌至 160 美元。虽然用SQ确定估值非常困难,主要是因为估值来自比特币收入,也来自基金和市场在未来采用资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场开始再次认为比特币无关紧要,我预计 SQ 将慢慢抛售至 150 美元至 160 美元之间(-37% 下行空间),并且不太可能反弹至 300 美元以上(25% 上行空间)。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ,应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ,公司都在成长。主要问题是:市场价值比特币会有任何现实的基础吗?有没有比特币,它增长了多少?有没有比特币,未来的潜在增长是多少?市场相信吗,或者就此而言,市场在乎吗?</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性,从谷歌趋势来看,更有可能的是,假设 SQ 将因此而在 2021 年下半年遭受损失,并对收入预期造成重大打击,这并不奇怪。然而,如果比特币的采用率增加,负面新闻消失,因为这是一家成长型公司,它可能会继续反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外,消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据,上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化,例如申请将增加经济支出的工作,并有望促进小企业增长,增加小企业乐观情绪和扩张,这对SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性业务非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样,谨慎是必要的,尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长是有价格的,SQ 持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ 是一家高增长公司,从长远来看有一些潜在的积极因素;然而,其估值非常值得怀疑,因为其高收入估计主要来自比特币交易,而不是底线盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从数量的角度来看,它在同行中看起来不错,但经过进一步检查,它似乎被严重高估了,因为未来的增长,至少在2021年,可能来自比特币。此外,如果没有政府的持续刺激,其现金应用程序采用统计数据可能不会继续保持同样的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外,它还面临着几个潜在的宏观经济障碍,涉及小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117734317","content_text":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.\nIn reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.\nThis has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.\nAnd whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.\nGiven the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.\n\nAndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nSquare Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the most popular stocks among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.\nOn the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a banking license via Square Financial Services.\nHowever, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.\nSource: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)\nIn addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.\nOverview\nSQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)\nAs of March 2020, the company has received a Banking License from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.\nGiven all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.\nThis was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)\nHowever, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)\nQuantitative\nYear to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector >$50 bln Year to Date)\nIt is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.\nSource: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)\nWhilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.\nHowever, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.\nFor this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.\nSource: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)\nSource: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)\nAs we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.\nMany will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:\nSource: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)\nOn a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)\nThis becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.\nSource: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)\nGiven the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend in which the author suggests that SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.\nMacro\nWhilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.\nWhilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.\nSmall Business Environment\nSQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)\nThe majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with <$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)\nDelving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.\nSource: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)\nAgain, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)\nFurther, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)\nAdditionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)\nSmall Business Lending\nLooking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.\nCurrently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.\nSource: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)\nThis can be verified through the credit conditions index in the monthly NFIB report. Although, an American Banker survey is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.\nThis is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of capital restraints placed on Wells Fargo & Company (WFC).\nSource: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)\nThere is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had lifted these restraints to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.\nBitcoin, Legislation & Gensler\nBitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor banks have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the purchase of Bitcoin using their services.\nThe primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.\nConsequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China and India.\nThis has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.\nIt is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.\nSource: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)\nWhilst the SEC has come out and said that Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to 2000 and 2008.\nLooking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.\nGeneral Economy - The Worry for Retail\nSeparately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout 2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)\nAdditionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.\nThe consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is considered to be the most revealing amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.\nSource: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)\nFinally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.\nIn relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.\nSource: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)\nWhilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.\nFinancials\nBitcoin\nWhen examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).\nFrom their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.\nCurrently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)\nAdditionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.\nSource: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)\nThe spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)\nThis also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.\nSource: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)\nThus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.\nThis is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.\nAdditionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.\nCash App\nOn the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)\nHowever, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:\n\n Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from \n government relief programs most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)\n\nPart of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.\nThe two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:\n\nApril 12-18 2020\nJanuary 24-30 2021\n\nThese coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.\nSource: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)\nTherefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.\nFurther, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.\nIt is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:\n\n ... has at least\n one financial transactionusing any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)\n\nSo, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...\nPerhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.\nTechnicals\nExamining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.\nSource: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)\nWhen examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.\nSource: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)\nFrom the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.\nCaution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.\nSource: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)\nFurther, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been significant liquidity issues the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.\nSource: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)\nGiven the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.\nPrice Targets\nOn the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.\nSource: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)\nHowever, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.\nI do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.\nIf the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).\nRisks\nWith respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.\nThe company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?\nIf the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.\nFurther, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.\nAgain, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.\nSummary\nSQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.\nFrom a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.\nAdditionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127985554,"gmtCreate":1624816263578,"gmtModify":1631890787554,"author":{"id":"3575074532947939","authorId":"3575074532947939","name":"Jeric87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575074532947939","authorIdStr":"3575074532947939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good to adapt","listText":"good to adapt","text":"good to adapt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127985554","repostId":"2146100198","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124124104,"gmtCreate":1624754888408,"gmtModify":1631890787559,"author":{"id":"3575074532947939","authorId":"3575074532947939","name":"Jeric87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575074532947939","authorIdStr":"3575074532947939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good!","listText":"Good!","text":"Good!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124124104","repostId":"2146028795","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121210579,"gmtCreate":1624464948591,"gmtModify":1631890787557,"author":{"id":"3575074532947939","authorId":"3575074532947939","name":"Jeric87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575074532947939","authorIdStr":"3575074532947939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"bankrupt country :(","listText":"bankrupt country :(","text":"bankrupt country :(","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121210579","repostId":"1191722749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191722749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624455982,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191722749?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储,第 1 部分:他们无法加息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191722749","media":"zerohedge","summary":"3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, mak","content":"<p><b>3 Key Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3个关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>The US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt</li> <li>Much of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates</li> <li>Higher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget</li> </ol> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>美国政府有超过28万亿美元的债务</li><li>大部分债务都是短期的,因此对利率上升特别敏感</li><li>更高的利率将立即开始给联邦预算带来压力</li></ol><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> The US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.</p><p><blockquote>美国有超过28万亿美元的债务,并且还在以惊人的速度增长。甚至在 COVID-19 出现之前,这个问题就变得越来越棘手。具有讽刺意味的是,尽管去年增加了 4 万亿美元以上的债务,但疫情可能给了美国政府短期喘息之机,因为它为美联储将利率降至零开了绿灯。</blockquote></p><p> First and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a <b>$4.5T loan at 0% interest</b> in 15 months!</p><p><blockquote>首先,这减轻了财政部的压力,因为它以较低的利率为膨胀的短期未偿债务进行了再融资。然而,随着美联储吸收了自去年3月以来发行的+90%的长期债务,出现了更多的缓解。这使得私人市场有更多空间购买新的短期国库券。因为美联储将利息收入返还给财政部,而且由于国库券的利率为 0%,这实际上给了财政部一个<b>4.5T 美元贷款,0% 利息</b>15个月后!</blockquote></p><p> While this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这听起来是一件大事,但它伴随着重大风险,现在已经把美联储关进了一个盒子里。这将在两篇文章中详细解释。第一部分将解释为什么美联储不能再加息,第二部分将展示美联储如何无法缩减规模,甚至可能需要增加国债购买来维持对收益率曲线长端的控制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>$28 Trillion and Growing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>28万亿美元且不断增长</b></blockquote></p><p> The US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府不能停止花钱。现在的支出远远超过了税收收入。美国经济继续经历名义增长,这增加了联邦税收收入,但联邦支出增长速度要快得多。下图1显示了这一明显的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5576e9901f1f8310629d45af16836a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> Excess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.</p><p><blockquote>超额支出必须用债务来支付。这种巨大的超支导致联邦政府借款激增,导致未偿债务总额超过28万亿美元。参见下图2。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed345b06ec4a35726fe7d9847937cf34\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> For anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great visual. Now, multiply that by 28!</p><p><blockquote>对于任何努力理解 1 吨美元大小的人来说,请看这张精彩的图片。现在,乘以28!</blockquote></p><p> For most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The petro-dollar should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.</p><p><blockquote>对于大多数政府来说,这将是不可持续的,因为利率将会上升。这给借款人带来了减少支出的压力。美国政府受益于大多数政府所不具备的三大优势。首先,它拥有发行全球储备货币的过高特权(目前),这为美元创造了比其他情况下更多的需求。石油美元应该有自己的专门文章,因此本分析将跳过这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是要强调另外两个关键事实,这两个事实使得支出和借贷有增无减。它已经能够从社会保障信托基金借款,美联储近年来吸收了很大一部分债务发行。这不仅相当于 11 万亿美元的无息贷款(因为所有利息支付都会返还给财政部),而且还阻止了私人市场吸收所有新的债务发行,从而保持较低的利率。如下图 3 所示,自 2010 年 1 月以来,在发行的 14.5 万亿美元债券中,私人市场 “只 ”吸收了 9 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dee6e735c0a3c1421eb321c0eae4b54\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov 和https://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></blockquote></p><p> Since Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (<i>Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt</i>). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!</p><p><blockquote>自2020年1月以来,数字更加明显。财政部发行了4.5万亿美元,其中美联储承担了2.6万亿美元(<i>注:美联储资产负债表扩张超过 4 万亿美元,但并非全部是国债</i>).深入研究这些数据会发现,美联储对期限更长的国债有更大的兴趣。由于短期利率为 0%,财政部可以向私营部门出售国库券,并且仍然拥有无息贷款。因此,美联储吸收财政部发行的几乎所有(约90%)长期债务以保持较低的利息支付是至关重要的!</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bf299c6c054e65d3317aa72d0f686a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>到目前为止,财政部一直避免支付更高的利息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Zooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds >10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.</p><p><blockquote>缩小范围,下面的三张图表显示了为什么去年的演习如此重要。再看看美国债务负担,这次是按工具分类的。非市场债务是政府欠自己的债务,票据代表1-10年到期,票据少于1年,债券>10年。下面的两张图表显示了债务的绝对增长以及债务构成的变化。自2008年以来,票据经历了最大的增长,从未偿还总额的25%增加到42%。非市场资产则相反,由于社会保障信托基金不再是借款来源,其份额从 45% 缩减至 25%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a144f0f9250c364637205e8bd0178bc0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1851784731b81544c30c5338624a03\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> It is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是要注意上面国库券的增长。票据是财政部面临的最高风险,因为较高的利率将在几个月内影响票据,因此值得注意的是,在 2015 年上一次加息周期中,票据仅占 1.4 万亿美元,但现在占 4.3 万亿美元。这意味着每加息0.25%,几乎会立即增加100亿美元的联邦支出。下图清楚地显示了上一次加息周期的影响。粉线显示了票据如何跟随美联储加息周期,最高接近 2.25%。</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储试图以类似的方式加息,它将立即为联邦支出增加 1000 亿美元,仅用于国库券到期利息。在美联储将资产负债表缩减至1万亿美元(不再有无息贷款)并将利率提高到4%的情况下,财政部将额外增加1600亿美元的国库券利率,高达2900亿美元的国库券利率!这还不包括在此期间增加的任何新债务,现在仅利息支付就包括每年额外的 0.5 万亿美元!</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04501c54f465fba412ffbf77b81a559f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了近20年来利率下降如何保持债务支付相对稳定的更清晰的影响。该图显示了平均加权利率和年化每月利息支付。橙色线(加权平均利率)与上面看到的债务增长直接相反。在上一个利率紧缩周期中,图表显示了利率上升增加债务负担的速度($1500)。美联储拥有的国库券很少(3200亿美元),因此这些利息支付不会返还给财政部。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c859933a1e991d3e6ba191ccb6a7609e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> One final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.</p><p><blockquote>要考虑的最后一张图表。这些利息支付与国税局征收的税收相比如何?在这种背景下,2015年加息周期对债务支付的影响变得非常明显。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585708ace254d0b79ecddcc77c9c8ca0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>包装</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).</p><p><blockquote>对于任何密切关注美国债务形势或关注金融市场的人来说,这篇文章中的任何内容都不应该感到惊讶。图表和图形试图显示趋势,并将硬数字放在大多数人已经知道的轶事背后。这篇文章甚至没有涉及更高的利率对房地产市场、公司债务市场和消费者债务市场的破坏性有多大。相反,它只关注财政部,而财政部恰好由美联储前主席(珍妮特·耶伦)管理。</blockquote></p><p> None of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury <i>relief</i> from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.<b>Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.</b>If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,<b>even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.</b>That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!</p><p><blockquote>这些数学都不过分复杂,所有数据都可以在财政部和美联储网站上免费获得。这就引出了一个问题,美联储是意识到利率不能上升,还是只是在照镜子,假设加息至 2.25% 将类似于 2015 年,而 2015 年 “只是 ”被 COVID-19 打乱了轨道?重申一下,利率下降给财政部带来了<i>宽慰</i>来自更高的利息支付。下一次,随着债务负担的增加,他们甚至可能达不到2%的一半。<b>不幸的是,对于美联储来说,他们的盒子比大多数人意识到的要紧。</b>如果美联储现在还没想明白,<b>即使在他们未能提高利率之前,他们也无法缩减量化宽松(债务货币化),更不用说缩减资产负债表了,而不会产生严重后果。</b>这些数据将在第2部分进行审查。敬请期待!</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储,第 1 部分:他们无法加息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储,第 1 部分:他们无法加息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 21:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>3 Key Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3个关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>The US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt</li> <li>Much of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates</li> <li>Higher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget</li> </ol> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>美国政府有超过28万亿美元的债务</li><li>大部分债务都是短期的,因此对利率上升特别敏感</li><li>更高的利率将立即开始给联邦预算带来压力</li></ol><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> The US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.</p><p><blockquote>美国有超过28万亿美元的债务,并且还在以惊人的速度增长。甚至在 COVID-19 出现之前,这个问题就变得越来越棘手。具有讽刺意味的是,尽管去年增加了 4 万亿美元以上的债务,但疫情可能给了美国政府短期喘息之机,因为它为美联储将利率降至零开了绿灯。</blockquote></p><p> First and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a <b>$4.5T loan at 0% interest</b> in 15 months!</p><p><blockquote>首先,这减轻了财政部的压力,因为它以较低的利率为膨胀的短期未偿债务进行了再融资。然而,随着美联储吸收了自去年3月以来发行的+90%的长期债务,出现了更多的缓解。这使得私人市场有更多空间购买新的短期国库券。因为美联储将利息收入返还给财政部,而且由于国库券的利率为 0%,这实际上给了财政部一个<b>4.5T 美元贷款,0% 利息</b>15个月后!</blockquote></p><p> While this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这听起来是一件大事,但它伴随着重大风险,现在已经把美联储关进了一个盒子里。这将在两篇文章中详细解释。第一部分将解释为什么美联储不能再加息,第二部分将展示美联储如何无法缩减规模,甚至可能需要增加国债购买来维持对收益率曲线长端的控制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>$28 Trillion and Growing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>28万亿美元且不断增长</b></blockquote></p><p> The US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府不能停止花钱。现在的支出远远超过了税收收入。美国经济继续经历名义增长,这增加了联邦税收收入,但联邦支出增长速度要快得多。下图1显示了这一明显的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5576e9901f1f8310629d45af16836a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> Excess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.</p><p><blockquote>超额支出必须用债务来支付。这种巨大的超支导致联邦政府借款激增,导致未偿债务总额超过28万亿美元。参见下图2。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed345b06ec4a35726fe7d9847937cf34\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> For anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great visual. Now, multiply that by 28!</p><p><blockquote>对于任何努力理解 1 吨美元大小的人来说,请看这张精彩的图片。现在,乘以28!</blockquote></p><p> For most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The petro-dollar should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.</p><p><blockquote>对于大多数政府来说,这将是不可持续的,因为利率将会上升。这给借款人带来了减少支出的压力。美国政府受益于大多数政府所不具备的三大优势。首先,它拥有发行全球储备货币的过高特权(目前),这为美元创造了比其他情况下更多的需求。石油美元应该有自己的专门文章,因此本分析将跳过这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是要强调另外两个关键事实,这两个事实使得支出和借贷有增无减。它已经能够从社会保障信托基金借款,美联储近年来吸收了很大一部分债务发行。这不仅相当于 11 万亿美元的无息贷款(因为所有利息支付都会返还给财政部),而且还阻止了私人市场吸收所有新的债务发行,从而保持较低的利率。如下图 3 所示,自 2010 年 1 月以来,在发行的 14.5 万亿美元债券中,私人市场 “只 ”吸收了 9 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dee6e735c0a3c1421eb321c0eae4b54\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov 和https://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></blockquote></p><p> Since Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (<i>Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt</i>). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!</p><p><blockquote>自2020年1月以来,数字更加明显。财政部发行了4.5万亿美元,其中美联储承担了2.6万亿美元(<i>注:美联储资产负债表扩张超过 4 万亿美元,但并非全部是国债</i>).深入研究这些数据会发现,美联储对期限更长的国债有更大的兴趣。由于短期利率为 0%,财政部可以向私营部门出售国库券,并且仍然拥有无息贷款。因此,美联储吸收财政部发行的几乎所有(约90%)长期债务以保持较低的利息支付是至关重要的!</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bf299c6c054e65d3317aa72d0f686a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>到目前为止,财政部一直避免支付更高的利息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Zooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds >10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.</p><p><blockquote>缩小范围,下面的三张图表显示了为什么去年的演习如此重要。再看看美国债务负担,这次是按工具分类的。非市场债务是政府欠自己的债务,票据代表1-10年到期,票据少于1年,债券>10年。下面的两张图表显示了债务的绝对增长以及债务构成的变化。自2008年以来,票据经历了最大的增长,从未偿还总额的25%增加到42%。非市场资产则相反,由于社会保障信托基金不再是借款来源,其份额从 45% 缩减至 25%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a144f0f9250c364637205e8bd0178bc0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1851784731b81544c30c5338624a03\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> It is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是要注意上面国库券的增长。票据是财政部面临的最高风险,因为较高的利率将在几个月内影响票据,因此值得注意的是,在 2015 年上一次加息周期中,票据仅占 1.4 万亿美元,但现在占 4.3 万亿美元。这意味着每加息0.25%,几乎会立即增加100亿美元的联邦支出。下图清楚地显示了上一次加息周期的影响。粉线显示了票据如何跟随美联储加息周期,最高接近 2.25%。</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储试图以类似的方式加息,它将立即为联邦支出增加 1000 亿美元,仅用于国库券到期利息。在美联储将资产负债表缩减至1万亿美元(不再有无息贷款)并将利率提高到4%的情况下,财政部将额外增加1600亿美元的国库券利率,高达2900亿美元的国库券利率!这还不包括在此期间增加的任何新债务,现在仅利息支付就包括每年额外的 0.5 万亿美元!</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04501c54f465fba412ffbf77b81a559f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了近20年来利率下降如何保持债务支付相对稳定的更清晰的影响。该图显示了平均加权利率和年化每月利息支付。橙色线(加权平均利率)与上面看到的债务增长直接相反。在上一个利率紧缩周期中,图表显示了利率上升增加债务负担的速度($1500)。美联储拥有的国库券很少(3200亿美元),因此这些利息支付不会返还给财政部。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c859933a1e991d3e6ba191ccb6a7609e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> One final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.</p><p><blockquote>要考虑的最后一张图表。这些利息支付与国税局征收的税收相比如何?在这种背景下,2015年加息周期对债务支付的影响变得非常明显。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585708ace254d0b79ecddcc77c9c8ca0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>包装</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).</p><p><blockquote>对于任何密切关注美国债务形势或关注金融市场的人来说,这篇文章中的任何内容都不应该感到惊讶。图表和图形试图显示趋势,并将硬数字放在大多数人已经知道的轶事背后。这篇文章甚至没有涉及更高的利率对房地产市场、公司债务市场和消费者债务市场的破坏性有多大。相反,它只关注财政部,而财政部恰好由美联储前主席(珍妮特·耶伦)管理。</blockquote></p><p> None of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury <i>relief</i> from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.<b>Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.</b>If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,<b>even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.</b>That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!</p><p><blockquote>这些数学都不过分复杂,所有数据都可以在财政部和美联储网站上免费获得。这就引出了一个问题,美联储是意识到利率不能上升,还是只是在照镜子,假设加息至 2.25% 将类似于 2015 年,而 2015 年 “只是 ”被 COVID-19 打乱了轨道?重申一下,利率下降给财政部带来了<i>宽慰</i>来自更高的利息支付。下一次,随着债务负担的增加,他们甚至可能达不到2%的一半。<b>不幸的是,对于美联储来说,他们的盒子比大多数人意识到的要紧。</b>如果美联储现在还没想明白,<b>即使在他们未能提高利率之前,他们也无法缩减量化宽松(债务货币化),更不用说缩减资产负债表了,而不会产生严重后果。</b>这些数据将在第2部分进行审查。敬请期待!</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191722749","content_text":"3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates\nHigher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget\n\nIntroduction\nThe US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.\nFirst and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a $4.5T loan at 0% interest in 15 months!\nWhile this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.\n$28 Trillion and Growing\nThe US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nExcess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nFor anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great visual. Now, multiply that by 28!\nFor most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The petro-dollar should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.\nIt is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/\nSince Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nThe Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments\nZooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds >10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nIt is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.\nIf the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nThe chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nOne final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nWrapping Up\nNothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).\nNone of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury relief from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164927990,"gmtCreate":1624167203610,"gmtModify":1631890787562,"author":{"id":"3575074532947939","authorId":"3575074532947939","name":"Jeric87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575074532947939","authorIdStr":"3575074532947939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164927990","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164925721,"gmtCreate":1624167087063,"gmtModify":1631890787565,"author":{"id":"3575074532947939","authorId":"3575074532947939","name":"Jeric87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575074532947939","authorIdStr":"3575074532947939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"But nobody can tell when","listText":"But nobody can tell when","text":"But nobody can tell when","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164925721","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}