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- FanaticsFanatics
  ·2021-07-25
  Please like and comment
  Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>
  Summary IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.
  Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>
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- FanaticsFanatics
  ·2021-07-24
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- FanaticsFanatics
  ·2021-07-08
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- FanaticsFanatics
  ·2021-07-08
  Please like and comment thank you
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- FanaticsFanatics
  ·2021-07-05
  Please like and comment please!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- FanaticsFanatics
  ·2021-07-03
  Please like and comment on my post
  Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>苏兹·奥曼 (Suze Orman) 担心市场崩盘——您应该这样做</blockquote>
  As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for th
  Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>苏兹·奥曼 (Suze Orman) 担心市场崩盘——您应该这样做</blockquote>
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- FanaticsFanatics
  ·2021-07-02
  Up up
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- FanaticsFanatics
  ·2021-07-02
  huat ah
  @DGSY：
  Wow [开心] [开心]
  Wow [开心] [开心]
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- FanaticsFanatics
  ·2021-07-02
  Up up
  3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘中值得购买的 3 只昂贵科技股</blockquote>
  Get ready to buy Snowflake and two other hot tech stocks if this frothy market collapses.
  3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘中值得购买的 3 只昂贵科技股</blockquote>
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- FanaticsFanatics
  ·2021-07-02
  Please like my post and comment
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177684719","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>IBM 第二季度盈利超出分析师预期，云收入和营业利润率均有所提高。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM 连续四个季度收入下降，过去 34 个季度中有 30 个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多的透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊桑·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商用机器公司（IBM）是一家处于转型期的公司。对投资者来说不幸的是，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及传统业务的剥离。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播种的种子是否落在岩石地上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面的业务快速增长，并且在量子计算方面是一个潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前者行业的激烈竞争和后者行业的不确定前景。公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此 IBM 的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM 拥有合理且不断减少的债务负担和强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来解决增长问题，同时剥离托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为 Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及它将承担的当前股息部分尚未披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司非 GAAP 每股收益为 2.33 美元，超出预期 0.04 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，收入为 187 亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了 7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的 IBM Z 大型机周期，同比下降 13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门占总收入的个位数比例较低，下降了 9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将大部分分拆为 Kyndryl，但增长持平。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极方面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去 12 个月，云总收入为 270 亿美元，增长了 15%，而本季度云收入增长了 13%，达到 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去 12 个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到 177 亿美元，调整后自由现金流总计 110 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM的立足点</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM充其量是一家三流IT公司，最坏的情况是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，要准确评估该股，投资者必须了解 IBM 的传统业务有很多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM 是世界上最大的 IT 服务公司，也是大型机的主要供应商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接都由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 的大型机系统处理了全球近 90% 的信用卡交易，全球 97% 的最大银行依赖 IBM 的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而旅游业80%的预订都是通过IBM系统进行的。这导致使用该公司的 IT 服务处理了 40 亿个航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息传输的风险，这是许多人不愿意采取的举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，企业越来越多地采用混合匹配的IT基础架构。反过来，这又侵蚀了 IBM 在客户转换成本方面的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍意识到 IBM 通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。不过，在摩根大通最近举行的投资者大会上，首席财务官吉姆-卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）在接受提问时，就混合云如何推动 IBM 其他一些部门的收入提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们每在混合云平台上投入1美元（在业务中），就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，卡瓦诺使用的是 drag 指的是与采用 IBM 混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都能从公司的软件和服务产品中获得 9 到 13 美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>因为混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，所以它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。医疗保健和金融服务领域的客户尤其关注这一点。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最新的研究也属于其他预测的范围，是由魔多情报公司进行的。该公司预测 2021 年至 2026 年的复合年增长率为 18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，该领域的主要运营商是思科 (CSCO)、惠普 (HPE)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、思杰系统 (CTXS) 和 IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云，还有另一个潜在增长来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>请原谅这个双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和 IBM 在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章《IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人》。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦推出，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多名客户。随着600亿美元的服务积压，新实体的预计收入将达到190亿美元。该公司的规模是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次拆分将使 IBM 从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务一半以上收入的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占该公司收入的 22%，将占销售额的 40% 以上。值得注意的是，该部门上一季度的收入同比增长了 12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 将保留 Red Hat 及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方最大的客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，仍有待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM已经转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道，该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图记录了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ycharts 数据 / 作者提供的图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与 Kyndryl 分拆相关的 30 亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计 IBM 到 2022 年将产生 120 亿至 130 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层变动，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年中期达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约 180 亿美元。IBM 维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司近期偿还债务的进展情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl 分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票被高估了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 股价交易价格为 141.13 美元。8 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 153.50 美元。自上次收益报告以来，3 位分析师对该股的目标价为 151.33 美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均水平分别为 16.42 倍和 13.25 倍。这两个指标都远低于行业平均水平，行业平均水平都在三十分左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium 提供的 3 至 5 年期 PEG 为 1.16 倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后 IBM 增长的预期。挂钩比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票是一项好的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中拥有根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为公司主要增长途径的云计算也可能导致公司一些传统业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务的快速增长是显而易见的： IBM 现在拥有 3200 多家客户使用公司的混合云平台。这几乎是红帽收购前数字的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。再加上 Kyndryl 发展缓慢的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，我们有理由相信 IBM 将实现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 拥有稳健的资产负债表、强劲的收益率，当使用 PEG 比率作为股票估值的基础时，股票交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我将 IBM 评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期内最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者却获得了相当丰厚的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>IBM 第二季度盈利超出分析师预期，云收入和营业利润率均有所提高。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM 连续四个季度收入下降，过去 34 个季度中有 30 个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多的透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊桑·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商用机器公司（IBM）是一家处于转型期的公司。对投资者来说不幸的是，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及传统业务的剥离。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播种的种子是否落在岩石地上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面的业务快速增长，并且在量子计算方面是一个潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前者行业的激烈竞争和后者行业的不确定前景。公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此 IBM 的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM 拥有合理且不断减少的债务负担和强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来解决增长问题，同时剥离托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为 Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及它将承担的当前股息部分尚未披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司非 GAAP 每股收益为 2.33 美元，超出预期 0.04 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，收入为 187 亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了 7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的 IBM Z 大型机周期，同比下降 13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门占总收入的个位数比例较低，下降了 9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将大部分分拆为 Kyndryl，但增长持平。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极方面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去 12 个月，云总收入为 270 亿美元，增长了 15%，而本季度云收入增长了 13%，达到 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去 12 个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到 177 亿美元，调整后自由现金流总计 110 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM的立足点</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM充其量是一家三流IT公司，最坏的情况是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，要准确评估该股，投资者必须了解 IBM 的传统业务有很多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM 是世界上最大的 IT 服务公司，也是大型机的主要供应商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接都由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 的大型机系统处理了全球近 90% 的信用卡交易，全球 97% 的最大银行依赖 IBM 的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而旅游业80%的预订都是通过IBM系统进行的。这导致使用该公司的 IT 服务处理了 40 亿个航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息传输的风险，这是许多人不愿意采取的举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，企业越来越多地采用混合匹配的IT基础架构。反过来，这又侵蚀了 IBM 在客户转换成本方面的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍意识到 IBM 通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。不过，在摩根大通最近举行的投资者大会上，首席财务官吉姆-卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）在接受提问时，就混合云如何推动 IBM 其他一些部门的收入提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们每在混合云平台上投入1美元（在业务中），就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，卡瓦诺使用的是 drag 指的是与采用 IBM 混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都能从公司的软件和服务产品中获得 9 到 13 美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>因为混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，所以它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。医疗保健和金融服务领域的客户尤其关注这一点。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最新的研究也属于其他预测的范围，是由魔多情报公司进行的。该公司预测 2021 年至 2026 年的复合年增长率为 18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，该领域的主要运营商是思科 (CSCO)、惠普 (HPE)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、思杰系统 (CTXS) 和 IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云，还有另一个潜在增长来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>请原谅这个双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和 IBM 在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章《IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人》。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦推出，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多名客户。随着600亿美元的服务积压，新实体的预计收入将达到190亿美元。该公司的规模是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次拆分将使 IBM 从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务一半以上收入的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占该公司收入的 22%，将占销售额的 40% 以上。值得注意的是，该部门上一季度的收入同比增长了 12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 将保留 Red Hat 及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方最大的客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，仍有待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM已经转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道，该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图记录了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ycharts 数据 / 作者提供的图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与 Kyndryl 分拆相关的 30 亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计 IBM 到 2022 年将产生 120 亿至 130 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层变动，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年中期达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约 180 亿美元。IBM 维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司近期偿还债务的进展情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl 分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票被高估了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 股价交易价格为 141.13 美元。8 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 153.50 美元。自上次收益报告以来，3 位分析师对该股的目标价为 151.33 美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均水平分别为 16.42 倍和 13.25 倍。这两个指标都远低于行业平均水平，行业平均水平都在三十分左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium 提供的 3 至 5 年期 PEG 为 1.16 倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后 IBM 增长的预期。挂钩比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票是一项好的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中拥有根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为公司主要增长途径的云计算也可能导致公司一些传统业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务的快速增长是显而易见的： IBM 现在拥有 3200 多家客户使用公司的混合云平台。这几乎是红帽收购前数字的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。再加上 Kyndryl 发展缓慢的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，我们有理由相信 IBM 将实现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 拥有稳健的资产负债表、强劲的收益率，当使用 PEG 比率作为股票估值的基础时，股票交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我将 IBM 评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期内最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者却获得了相当丰厚的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174703867,"gmtCreate":1627134699959,"gmtModify":1633767723040,"author":{"id":"3575013490492928","authorId":"3575013490492928","name":"Fanatics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070e08d0698113575758a8b6aaf8338c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575013490492928","authorIdStr":"3575013490492928"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Please like and 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you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149675444","repostId":"1128640650","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155656658,"gmtCreate":1625416560874,"gmtModify":1633940845580,"author":{"id":"3575013490492928","authorId":"3575013490492928","name":"Fanatics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070e08d0698113575758a8b6aaf8338c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575013490492928","authorIdStr":"3575013490492928"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment please!","listText":"Please like and comment please!","text":"Please like and comment please!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155656658","repostId":"1160702483","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152261983,"gmtCreate":1625297918742,"gmtModify":1633941614476,"author":{"id":"3575013490492928","authorId":"3575013490492928","name":"Fanatics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070e08d0698113575758a8b6aaf8338c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575013490492928","authorIdStr":"3575013490492928"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment on my post&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment on my post&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment on my post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152261983","repostId":"1188153141","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188153141","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625276221,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188153141?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>苏兹·奥曼 (Suze Orman) 担心市场崩盘——您应该这样做</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188153141","media":"MoneyWise","summary":"As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for th","content":"<p>As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市继续创下纪录，新冠肺炎的影响继续给经济带来问题。</blockquote></p><p> That clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.</p><p><blockquote>这场冲突让包括苏兹-奥曼（Suze Orman）在内的投资专家感到担忧，她甚至表示自己现在正在为不可避免的市场崩盘做准备。</blockquote></p><p> And a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广的一个著名指标——被称为巴菲特指标——表明奥曼可能有所发现。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.</p><p><blockquote>以下是对这种担忧从何而来的解释，以及即使市场下跌，您也可以使用一些技巧来保持投资组合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Suze Orman think?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苏兹·奥曼怎么想？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8dc3ad363faad96bc575a22235562d\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Mediapunch/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>媒体打孔/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Suze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.</p><p><blockquote>苏兹·奥曼几十年来一直热切关注市场。她知道起起落落是意料之中的，但她所看到的像游戏驿站这样的投资时尚让她感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥曼在 CNBC 的一段视频中说：”我不喜欢我现在在市场上看到的情况。“经济形势很糟糕，但股市一直在上涨”。</blockquote></p><p> While investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在投资就像使用智能手机应用程序一样简单，但奥曼担心我们能从这些历史高点走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> And even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.</p><p><blockquote>即使刺激检查仍在进行中，房地产市场去年也打破了自己的记录，奥曼仍然担心冠状病毒会带来什么——尤其是在新变种不断涌现的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，她觉得自从上次撞车以来，已经太久了，不能再在这个高度停留太久了。</blockquote></p><p> “This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.</p><p><blockquote>“奥尔曼说：”这让我再次想起了 2000 年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特指标</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ada32ecadcc4581fed208f4f4e4d53\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Larry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>拉里·W·史密斯/EPA/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> One metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）经常用来评估市场的一个指标，以他的名字命名，这个指标已经出现了足够长的时间，以至于市场观察人士开始怀疑它是否是一个过时的工具。</blockquote></p><p> But the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.</p><p><blockquote>但巴菲特指标（衡量股市总价值与美国经济产出之比的指标）继续攀升至前所未有的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士不禁要问，这是否是我们即将迎来一场硬着陆的征兆。</blockquote></p><p> How to prepare for a crash<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad912a6b4611d9e39b46d2851c78c9e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Freedomz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>如何为撞车做好准备Freedomz / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Orman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼提出了三个建立简单投资策略的建议，以帮助您成功应对市场的任何急转弯。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Buy low</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 低买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Part of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼对游戏驿站等备受关注的股票感到非常不安，部分原因是它完全违背了普通投资者的利益。</blockquote></p><p> “All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”你们所有人的头都被拧到了后面。“你只想让这些市场不断上涨。这对你有什么好处？”</blockquote></p><p> She points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，大多数人唯一的额外资金是在 401(k) 或 IRA 计划中用于退休投资。</blockquote></p><p> Because you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>因为你可能几十年都不打算动用这笔钱，所以最好的长期策略是低价买入。这样，您的美元现在将走得更远，为未来 20、30 或 40 年的增长留下充足的空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Invest on a schedule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 按计划投资</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4102f8a6d5002090743b1cbded32ef9\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">katjen / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>卡特延 / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> While she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然奥曼更喜欢低价买入，但她并不建议您在市场上涨时完全停止投资。</blockquote></p><p> She wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.</p><p><blockquote>她希望普通投资者不要陷入市场每天的起伏之中。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，现在为经济衰退欢呼可能是你获得更多利润丰厚投资的最佳选择——就像一些幸运的投资者在 2007 年和 2008 年所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> “When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥尔曼说：”当市场下跌、下跌、下跌时，你可以免费买到东西。“现在看看 15 年后的他们。”</blockquote></p><p> She suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>她建议您制定美元成本平均策略，这意味着无论市场波动如何，您都要定期等额投资。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法很容易在目前可供DIY投资者使用的许多投资应用程序中实现。</blockquote></p><p> There are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.</p><p><blockquote>甚至还有一些应用程序会通过将您的借记卡和信用卡购买金额四舍五入到最接近的美元来自动投资您的备用零钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Diversify with fractional shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 通过零碎股份实现多元化</b></blockquote></p><p> To help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助抵御市场特定角落的下跌，奥曼建议您分散投资——通过对许多不同类型资产和经济部门的投资来平衡您的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Orman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼特别推荐零股投资。这种方法可以让你购买一家大牌公司的股份，否则你将买不起这部分股份。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在不受欢迎的股票交易工具的帮助下，任何预算的任何人都可以负担得起碎股策略。</blockquote></p><p> “The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥曼说：”越早开始，你的钱就越多。“只是不要停下来，当这些市场下跌时，你应该非常高兴，因为你的美元找到了更多的股票”。</blockquote></p><p> “And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”</p><p><blockquote>“你拥有的股份越多，20 年、40 年、50 年后你拥有的钱就越多。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else you can do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你还能做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e79c6fd1f8fa6e3a7c3a6c94f1e14b5\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">goodluz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>古德卢兹 / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼在 CNBC 视频中表示，无论大崩盘是否迫在眉睫，距离退休还有几十年的投资者都可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> First, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。自从疫情爆发以来，奥曼现在建议每个人都有一个应急基金，可以支付他们一整年的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.</p><p><blockquote>然后，为了让自己过上舒适的退休生活，她建议您选择罗斯账户，无论是 401(k) 还是 IRA。</blockquote></p><p> That will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.</p><p><blockquote>当您从退休账户中提取资金时，这将帮助您避免纳税，因为您对罗斯账户的缴款是在税后进行的。另一方面，传统的 IRA 在您供款时无需缴税，因此您最终会在以后付款。</blockquote></p><p> If you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果你发现你需要更多的指导，与专业的财务顾问合作，可以帮助你指出正确的方向，这样你就可以自信地度过任何市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> While everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.</p><p><blockquote>当其他人都在偏离航向或过度纠正时，你将牢牢掌握在驾驶座上，计划着你的夕阳西下。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1621813427262","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>苏兹·奥曼 (Suze Orman) 担心市场崩盘——您应该这样做</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>苏兹·奥曼 (Suze Orman) 担心市场崩盘——您应该这样做</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MoneyWise</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市继续创下纪录，新冠肺炎的影响继续给经济带来问题。</blockquote></p><p> That clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.</p><p><blockquote>这场冲突让包括苏兹-奥曼（Suze Orman）在内的投资专家感到担忧，她甚至表示自己现在正在为不可避免的市场崩盘做准备。</blockquote></p><p> And a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广的一个著名指标——被称为巴菲特指标——表明奥曼可能有所发现。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.</p><p><blockquote>以下是对这种担忧从何而来的解释，以及即使市场下跌，您也可以使用一些技巧来保持投资组合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Suze Orman think?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苏兹·奥曼怎么想？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8dc3ad363faad96bc575a22235562d\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Mediapunch/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>媒体打孔/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Suze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.</p><p><blockquote>苏兹·奥曼几十年来一直热切关注市场。她知道起起落落是意料之中的，但她所看到的像游戏驿站这样的投资时尚让她感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥曼在 CNBC 的一段视频中说：”我不喜欢我现在在市场上看到的情况。“经济形势很糟糕，但股市一直在上涨”。</blockquote></p><p> While investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在投资就像使用智能手机应用程序一样简单，但奥曼担心我们能从这些历史高点走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> And even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.</p><p><blockquote>即使刺激检查仍在进行中，房地产市场去年也打破了自己的记录，奥曼仍然担心冠状病毒会带来什么——尤其是在新变种不断涌现的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，她觉得自从上次撞车以来，已经太久了，不能再在这个高度停留太久了。</blockquote></p><p> “This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.</p><p><blockquote>“奥尔曼说：”这让我再次想起了 2000 年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特指标</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ada32ecadcc4581fed208f4f4e4d53\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Larry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>拉里·W·史密斯/EPA/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> One metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）经常用来评估市场的一个指标，以他的名字命名，这个指标已经出现了足够长的时间，以至于市场观察人士开始怀疑它是否是一个过时的工具。</blockquote></p><p> But the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.</p><p><blockquote>但巴菲特指标（衡量股市总价值与美国经济产出之比的指标）继续攀升至前所未有的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士不禁要问，这是否是我们即将迎来一场硬着陆的征兆。</blockquote></p><p> How to prepare for a crash<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad912a6b4611d9e39b46d2851c78c9e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Freedomz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>如何为撞车做好准备Freedomz / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Orman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼提出了三个建立简单投资策略的建议，以帮助您成功应对市场的任何急转弯。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Buy low</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 低买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Part of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼对游戏驿站等备受关注的股票感到非常不安，部分原因是它完全违背了普通投资者的利益。</blockquote></p><p> “All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”你们所有人的头都被拧到了后面。“你只想让这些市场不断上涨。这对你有什么好处？”</blockquote></p><p> She points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，大多数人唯一的额外资金是在 401(k) 或 IRA 计划中用于退休投资。</blockquote></p><p> Because you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>因为你可能几十年都不打算动用这笔钱，所以最好的长期策略是低价买入。这样，您的美元现在将走得更远，为未来 20、30 或 40 年的增长留下充足的空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Invest on a schedule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 按计划投资</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4102f8a6d5002090743b1cbded32ef9\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">katjen / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>卡特延 / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> While she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然奥曼更喜欢低价买入，但她并不建议您在市场上涨时完全停止投资。</blockquote></p><p> She wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.</p><p><blockquote>她希望普通投资者不要陷入市场每天的起伏之中。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，现在为经济衰退欢呼可能是你获得更多利润丰厚投资的最佳选择——就像一些幸运的投资者在 2007 年和 2008 年所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> “When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥尔曼说：”当市场下跌、下跌、下跌时，你可以免费买到东西。“现在看看 15 年后的他们。”</blockquote></p><p> She suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>她建议您制定美元成本平均策略，这意味着无论市场波动如何，您都要定期等额投资。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法很容易在目前可供DIY投资者使用的许多投资应用程序中实现。</blockquote></p><p> There are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.</p><p><blockquote>甚至还有一些应用程序会通过将您的借记卡和信用卡购买金额四舍五入到最接近的美元来自动投资您的备用零钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Diversify with fractional shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 通过零碎股份实现多元化</b></blockquote></p><p> To help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助抵御市场特定角落的下跌，奥曼建议您分散投资——通过对许多不同类型资产和经济部门的投资来平衡您的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Orman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼特别推荐零股投资。这种方法可以让你购买一家大牌公司的股份，否则你将买不起这部分股份。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在不受欢迎的股票交易工具的帮助下，任何预算的任何人都可以负担得起碎股策略。</blockquote></p><p> “The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥曼说：”越早开始，你的钱就越多。“只是不要停下来，当这些市场下跌时，你应该非常高兴，因为你的美元找到了更多的股票”。</blockquote></p><p> “And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”</p><p><blockquote>“你拥有的股份越多，20 年、40 年、50 年后你拥有的钱就越多。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else you can do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你还能做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e79c6fd1f8fa6e3a7c3a6c94f1e14b5\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">goodluz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>古德卢兹 / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼在 CNBC 视频中表示，无论大崩盘是否迫在眉睫，距离退休还有几十年的投资者都可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> First, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。自从疫情爆发以来，奥曼现在建议每个人都有一个应急基金，可以支付他们一整年的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.</p><p><blockquote>然后，为了让自己过上舒适的退休生活，她建议您选择罗斯账户，无论是 401(k) 还是 IRA。</blockquote></p><p> That will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.</p><p><blockquote>当您从退休账户中提取资金时，这将帮助您避免纳税，因为您对罗斯账户的缴款是在税后进行的。另一方面，传统的 IRA 在您供款时无需缴税，因此您最终会在以后付款。</blockquote></p><p> If you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果你发现你需要更多的指导，与专业的财务顾问合作，可以帮助你指出正确的方向，这样你就可以自信地度过任何市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> While everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.</p><p><blockquote>当其他人都在偏离航向或过度纠正时，你将牢牢掌握在驾驶座上，计划着你的夕阳西下。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suze-orman-worries-market-crash-220000108.html\">MoneyWise</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suze-orman-worries-market-crash-220000108.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188153141","content_text":"As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.\nThat clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.\nAnd a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.\nHere’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.\nWhat does Suze Orman think?\nMediapunch/Shutterstock\nSuze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.\n“I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”\nWhile investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.\nAnd even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.\nWhat's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.\n“This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.\nThe Buffett Indicator\nLarry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock\nOne metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.\nBut the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.\nAnd those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.\nHow to prepare for a crashFreedomz / Shutterstock\nOrman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.\n1. Buy low\nPart of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.\n“All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”\nShe points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.\nBecause you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.\n2. Invest on a schedule\nkatjen / Shutterstock\nWhile she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.\nShe wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.\nIn fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.\n“When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”\nShe suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.\nThis kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.\nThere are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.\n3. Diversify with fractional shares\nTo help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.\nOrman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.\nWith the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.\n“The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”\n“And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”\nWhat else you can do\ngoodluz / Shutterstock\nWhether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.\nFirst, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.\nThen, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.\nThat will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.\nIf you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.\nWhile everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158409270,"gmtCreate":1625161237090,"gmtModify":1633943001327,"author":{"id":"3575013490492928","authorId":"3575013490492928","name":"Fanatics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070e08d0698113575758a8b6aaf8338c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575013490492928","authorIdStr":"3575013490492928"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Up up","listText":"Up up","text":"Up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158409270","repostId":"1165885611","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158409899,"gmtCreate":1625161201011,"gmtModify":1633943001447,"author":{"id":"3575013490492928","authorId":"3575013490492928","name":"Fanatics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070e08d0698113575758a8b6aaf8338c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575013490492928","authorIdStr":"3575013490492928"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"huat ah","listText":"huat ah","text":"huat ah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158409899","repostId":"128756873","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":128756873,"gmtCreate":1624533518892,"gmtModify":1634004788575,"author":{"id":"3575428816252305","authorId":"3575428816252305","name":"DGSY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47311563f56abb27db85f8d03fdc2cad","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575428816252305","authorIdStr":"3575428816252305"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"Wow [开心] [开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcae49e80b23f2fd0faa421f58ea15e5","width":"1440","height":"3996"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128756873","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158409048,"gmtCreate":1625161164584,"gmtModify":1633943001889,"author":{"id":"3575013490492928","authorId":"3575013490492928","name":"Fanatics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070e08d0698113575758a8b6aaf8338c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575013490492928","authorIdStr":"3575013490492928"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Up up","listText":"Up up","text":"Up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158409048","repostId":"1199212665","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199212665","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625146084,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1199212665?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 21:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘中值得购买的 3 只昂贵科技股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199212665","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Get ready to buy Snowflake and two other hot tech stocks if this frothy market collapses.","content":"<p>Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>由于对债券收益率上升、通货膨胀以及受益于疫情的公司增长放缓的担忧，许多高增长科技股在过去几个月出现了价格回调。</blockquote></p><p> That sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.</p><p><blockquote>这种抛售创造了一些买入机会，但该行业一些价格较高的股票只是小幅回调，守住了涨幅，甚至反弹。这种相对实力令人钦佩，但对于不想为合适的公司付出错误代价的投资者来说，这有点令人沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> That's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW),<b>Twilio</b>(NYSE:TWLO), and&nbsp;<b>CrowdStrike</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD).</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我正在列出一份昂贵的科技股购物清单，我会在下一次市场崩盘时急切地购买这些股票。让我们来看看其中的三家公司：<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SNOW），<b>特维利奥</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TWLO），以及<b>人群罢工</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CRWD）</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde232ce39d9cd52a01fd6ec018cae53\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Snowflake</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 雪花</b></blockquote></p><p> Snowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>salesforce.com</b>.</p><p><blockquote>雪花是 2020 年最热门的科技 IPO 之一，这要归功于其令人瞠目结舌的增长率和来自<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</b>和<b>销售力量网站</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake基于云的数据仓库将公司的所有数据拉到一个平台上，然后可以将其输入到第三方数据可视化应用程序中。它的服务打破了不同部门和计算平台之间的孤岛，这使得大公司更容易做出数据驱动的决策。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.</p><p><blockquote>2021 财年（截至今年 1 月），Snowflake 的客户数量增长了 73%，达到 4,139 家，其中包括 186 家财富 500 强公司。其收入飙升 124%，达到 5.92 亿美元，其净保留率（衡量其每个现有客户的收入同比增长）达到 165%。</blockquote></p><p> That growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.</p><p><blockquote>这种增长在 2022 年第一季度仍在继续。其收入同比增长 110%，达到 2.289 亿美元，客户数量增长 67%，达到 4,532 家，净保留率达到 168%。</blockquote></p><p> But Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, and<i>more than doubled</i>from $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>但雪花还没有盈利。ITSGAAP净亏损从2020财年的3.485亿美元扩大到2021财年的5.391亿美元，并且<i>翻倍多</i>2022 年第一季度从 9360 万美元增至 2.032 亿美元。在非 GAAP 基础上，它也不盈利，这不包括基于股票的薪酬费用。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计 Snowflake 今年的收入将增长 88%，亏损幅度将收窄。然而，其股价仍为今年销售额的 65 倍，这表明该股仍有太多增长空间。但如果雪花在车祸中被切成两半，我会考虑开始一个大头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Twilio</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 怀疑</b></blockquote></p><p> Twilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps&nbsp;<b>Lyft</b>'s passengers contact their drivers, and&nbsp;<b>Airbnb</b>'s guests reach their hosts.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio的云平台在应用程序中处理短信、评级和视频。例如，它有助于<b>Lyft</b>乘客联系他们的司机，<b>爱彼迎</b>的客人到达他们的主人。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.</p><p><blockquote>在过去，开发人员从头开始构建这些工具，这通常很耗时、有缺陷且难以扩展。然而，开发人员现在只需在他们的应用程序中添加几行代码，就可以将这些功能外包给Twilio的云服务。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，Twilio 的收入增长了 55%，达到 17.6 亿美元。其净扩张率，与雪花的净保留率相当，达到了137%。2021 年第一季度，由于整合了最近收购的客户数据公司部门，其收入同比增长 62%，达到 5.9 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>按 GAAP 计算，Twilio 仍不盈利，但其 2020 年非 GAAP 净利润增长 62%，达到 3590 万美元。2021年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润再增长15%，达到960万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计其今年的收入将增长 44%，但由于投资增加和 A2P（应用对个人）费用上涨，其非 GAAP 盈利将再次陷入亏损，现在运营商在应用程序访问短信网络时都会收取这些费用。</blockquote></p><p> That near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.</p><p><blockquote>对于一只交易价格接近今年销售额 30 倍的股票来说，近期前景看起来并不乐观。不过，我仍然认为Twilio具有巨大的增长潜力，我肯定会以较低的价格购买其股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. CrowdStrike</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. CrowdStrike</b></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike是一家网络安全公司，在一个主要方面不同于行业同行。大多数网络安全公司安装现场设备来支持他们的服务，但随着组织的扩展，维护成本可能很高，而且难以扩展。CrowdStrike通过将其端到端安全平台作为基于云的服务提供来消除这些设备。</blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike 的增长清楚地反映了其颠覆性潜力。2021财年（截至今年1月），其收入增长82%，达到8.744亿美元，订阅客户数量增长82%，达到9,896家，净保留率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>2022财年第一季度，其收入同比增长70%至3.028亿美元，用户群同比增长82%至11,420人，保留率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> CrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike 在 2021 年也在非 GAAP 基础上实现盈利，净利润为 6260 万美元。2022 年第一季度，其非 GAAP 净利润同比增长五倍多，达到 2330 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Those&nbsp;numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字令人印象深刻，但 CrowdStrike 的预期市盈率仍然约为 350 倍，是今年销售额的 40 多倍。因此，这是另一只除非市场崩盘，否则我不会购买的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘中值得购买的 3 只昂贵科技股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘中值得购买的 3 只昂贵科技股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 21:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>由于对债券收益率上升、通货膨胀以及受益于疫情的公司增长放缓的担忧，许多高增长科技股在过去几个月出现了价格回调。</blockquote></p><p> That sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.</p><p><blockquote>这种抛售创造了一些买入机会，但该行业一些价格较高的股票只是小幅回调，守住了涨幅，甚至反弹。这种相对实力令人钦佩，但对于不想为合适的公司付出错误代价的投资者来说，这有点令人沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> That's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW),<b>Twilio</b>(NYSE:TWLO), and&nbsp;<b>CrowdStrike</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD).</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我正在列出一份昂贵的科技股购物清单，我会在下一次市场崩盘时急切地购买这些股票。让我们来看看其中的三家公司：<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SNOW），<b>特维利奥</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TWLO），以及<b>人群罢工</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CRWD）</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde232ce39d9cd52a01fd6ec018cae53\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Snowflake</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 雪花</b></blockquote></p><p> Snowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>salesforce.com</b>.</p><p><blockquote>雪花是 2020 年最热门的科技 IPO 之一，这要归功于其令人瞠目结舌的增长率和来自<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</b>和<b>销售力量网站</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake基于云的数据仓库将公司的所有数据拉到一个平台上，然后可以将其输入到第三方数据可视化应用程序中。它的服务打破了不同部门和计算平台之间的孤岛，这使得大公司更容易做出数据驱动的决策。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.</p><p><blockquote>2021 财年（截至今年 1 月），Snowflake 的客户数量增长了 73%，达到 4,139 家，其中包括 186 家财富 500 强公司。其收入飙升 124%，达到 5.92 亿美元，其净保留率（衡量其每个现有客户的收入同比增长）达到 165%。</blockquote></p><p> That growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.</p><p><blockquote>这种增长在 2022 年第一季度仍在继续。其收入同比增长 110%，达到 2.289 亿美元，客户数量增长 67%，达到 4,532 家，净保留率达到 168%。</blockquote></p><p> But Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, and<i>more than doubled</i>from $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>但雪花还没有盈利。ITSGAAP净亏损从2020财年的3.485亿美元扩大到2021财年的5.391亿美元，并且<i>翻倍多</i>2022 年第一季度从 9360 万美元增至 2.032 亿美元。在非 GAAP 基础上，它也不盈利，这不包括基于股票的薪酬费用。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计 Snowflake 今年的收入将增长 88%，亏损幅度将收窄。然而，其股价仍为今年销售额的 65 倍，这表明该股仍有太多增长空间。但如果雪花在车祸中被切成两半，我会考虑开始一个大头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Twilio</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 怀疑</b></blockquote></p><p> Twilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps&nbsp;<b>Lyft</b>'s passengers contact their drivers, and&nbsp;<b>Airbnb</b>'s guests reach their hosts.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio的云平台在应用程序中处理短信、评级和视频。例如，它有助于<b>Lyft</b>乘客联系他们的司机，<b>爱彼迎</b>的客人到达他们的主人。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.</p><p><blockquote>在过去，开发人员从头开始构建这些工具，这通常很耗时、有缺陷且难以扩展。然而，开发人员现在只需在他们的应用程序中添加几行代码，就可以将这些功能外包给Twilio的云服务。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，Twilio 的收入增长了 55%，达到 17.6 亿美元。其净扩张率，与雪花的净保留率相当，达到了137%。2021 年第一季度，由于整合了最近收购的客户数据公司部门，其收入同比增长 62%，达到 5.9 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>按 GAAP 计算，Twilio 仍不盈利，但其 2020 年非 GAAP 净利润增长 62%，达到 3590 万美元。2021年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润再增长15%，达到960万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计其今年的收入将增长 44%，但由于投资增加和 A2P（应用对个人）费用上涨，其非 GAAP 盈利将再次陷入亏损，现在运营商在应用程序访问短信网络时都会收取这些费用。</blockquote></p><p> That near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.</p><p><blockquote>对于一只交易价格接近今年销售额 30 倍的股票来说，近期前景看起来并不乐观。不过，我仍然认为Twilio具有巨大的增长潜力，我肯定会以较低的价格购买其股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. CrowdStrike</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. CrowdStrike</b></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike是一家网络安全公司，在一个主要方面不同于行业同行。大多数网络安全公司安装现场设备来支持他们的服务，但随着组织的扩展，维护成本可能很高，而且难以扩展。CrowdStrike通过将其端到端安全平台作为基于云的服务提供来消除这些设备。</blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike 的增长清楚地反映了其颠覆性潜力。2021财年（截至今年1月），其收入增长82%，达到8.744亿美元，订阅客户数量增长82%，达到9,896家，净保留率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>2022财年第一季度，其收入同比增长70%至3.028亿美元，用户群同比增长82%至11,420人，保留率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> CrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike 在 2021 年也在非 GAAP 基础上实现盈利，净利润为 6260 万美元。2022 年第一季度，其非 GAAP 净利润同比增长五倍多，达到 2330 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Those&nbsp;numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字令人印象深刻，但 CrowdStrike 的预期市盈率仍然约为 350 倍，是今年销售额的 40 多倍。因此，这是另一只除非市场崩盘，否则我不会购买的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/expensive-tech-stocks-to-buy-in-next-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","TWLO":"Twilio Inc","SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/expensive-tech-stocks-to-buy-in-next-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199212665","content_text":"Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.\nThat sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.\nThat's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW),Twilio(NYSE:TWLO), and CrowdStrike(NASDAQ:CRWD).\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Snowflake\nSnowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from Berkshire Hathaway and salesforce.com.\nSnowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.\nSnowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.\nThat growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.\nBut Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, andmore than doubledfrom $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.\nAnalysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.\n2. Twilio\nTwilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps Lyft's passengers contact their drivers, and Airbnb's guests reach their hosts.\nIn the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.\nTwilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.\nTwilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.\nAnalysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.\nThat near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.\n3. CrowdStrike\nCrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.\nCrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.\nIn the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.\nCrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.\nThose numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRWD":0.9,"SNOW":0.9,"TWLO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158564455,"gmtCreate":1625157053777,"gmtModify":1633943028314,"author":{"id":"3575013490492928","authorId":"3575013490492928","name":"Fanatics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070e08d0698113575758a8b6aaf8338c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575013490492928","authorIdStr":"3575013490492928"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like my post and comment","listText":"Please like my post and comment","text":"Please like my post and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158564455","repostId":"1148587912","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}