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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-05-13
Wow.... still don’t understand how he can link bitcoins mining to fossil fuels. Anyone care to explain?Maybe he wants to accumulate more at super low price. 😜
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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-04-26
Market correction is always healthy.
Bitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity?<blockquote>比特币:繁荣、萧条和巨大的机会?</blockquote>
TheStreet taps two crypto experts, Bobby Ong of CoinGecko and Dave Balter of Flipside Crypto, to dis
Bitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity?<blockquote>比特币:繁荣、萧条和巨大的机会?</blockquote>
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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-04-01
Money, money and more money!! 😂
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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-03-25
Hahaha, Who can predict the price of Bitcoin in the future? 😂
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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-03-18
Economy pick up, good? If inflation goes up, which is better, stocks or bonds?
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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-03-18
Fed has stated their position, and market is happy with it. 😂
What we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference<blockquote>我们从杰罗姆-鲍威尔的新闻发布会上学到了什么,又没有学到什么</blockquote>
Here are some key takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday — what we l
What we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference<blockquote>我们从杰罗姆-鲍威尔的新闻发布会上学到了什么,又没有学到什么</blockquote>
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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-03-17
Market is seems like depending on Fed for next move. 😅
Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting<blockquote>轻松赚钱、点阵图和美联储的困境: 重要会议的投资者指南</blockquote>
The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter ec
Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting<blockquote>轻松赚钱、点阵图和美联储的困境: 重要会议的投资者指南</blockquote>
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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-03-12
Too much money, will only flow into stocks. :)
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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-03-09
Correction is good and healthy.
Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote>
London (CNN Business) - Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's
Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote>
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still don’t understand how he can link bitcoins mining to fossil fuels. Anyone care to explain?Maybe he wants to accumulate more at super low price. 😜","listText":"Wow.... still don’t understand how he can link bitcoins mining to fossil fuels. Anyone care to explain?Maybe he wants to accumulate more at super low price. 😜","text":"Wow.... still don’t understand how he can link bitcoins mining to fossil fuels. Anyone care to explain?Maybe he wants to accumulate more at super low price. 😜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191217340","repostId":"1123539919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1929,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374380921,"gmtCreate":1619418749163,"gmtModify":1634273631761,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573824362072096","authorIdStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Market correction is always healthy. ","listText":"Market correction is always healthy. ","text":"Market correction is always healthy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374380921","repostId":"1158968268","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158968268","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619396796,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1158968268?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-26 08:26","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity?<blockquote>比特币:繁荣、萧条和巨大的机会?</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158968268","media":"TheStreet","summary":"TheStreet taps two crypto experts, Bobby Ong of CoinGecko and Dave Balter of Flipside Crypto, to dis","content":"<p>TheStreet taps two crypto experts, Bobby Ong of CoinGecko and Dave Balter of Flipside Crypto, to discuss the April 'bloodbath' and what it means for investors.</p><p><blockquote>TheStreet 邀请了两位加密货币专家,CoinGecko 的 Bobby Ong 和 Flipside Crypto 的 Dave Balter,讨论四月份的“大屠杀”及其对投资者的意义。</blockquote></p><p> Did the world just witness the bitcoin bomb? Or, the chance for a bitcoin buy?</p><p><blockquote>世界刚刚目睹了比特币炸弹吗?或者,购买比特币的机会?</blockquote></p><p> The famed cryptocurrency fell sharply over the past week, sinking from its mid-month high of over $64,000 to Sunday evening, when it fell under $48,000.</p><p><blockquote>这种著名的加密货币在过去一周大幅下跌,从月中超过 64,000 美元的高点下跌至周日晚间跌破 48,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> But the move may prove an opportunity for longer term investors.</p><p><blockquote>但此举可能对长期投资者来说是一个机会。</blockquote></p><p> \"Bitcoin's volatility isn't a flaw, it's a gift -- especially for the up-and-coming investor class of millennials and Gen-Z,\" said Dave Balter, the chief executive of Flipside Crypto, which provides analytics and business intelligence to crypto organizations, in an email to<i>TheStreet.</i>\"The last month is a reflection of its natural cycles, but also of a maturing institutional speculation and futures market.\"</p><p><blockquote>为加密货币组织提供分析和商业智能的 Flipside Crypto 首席执行官戴夫·巴尔特 (Dave Balter) 表示:“比特币的波动性不是缺陷,而是一份礼物——特别是对于千禧一代和 Z 世代等新兴投资者而言。”在一封电子邮件中<i>街道。</i>“上个月是其自然周期的反映,也是机构投机和期货市场走向成熟的反映。”</blockquote></p><p> And, said Balter, any good investor \"knows there's always money to be made with volatile assets.\"</p><p><blockquote>而且,巴尔特说,任何优秀的投资者“都知道波动的资产总能赚钱”。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the move startled some observers. Before the fall, bitcoin had been on a steady upswing, with many forecasting that it was not a question of if, but when, itwould hit $100,000. Just in the past quarter, the cryptocurrency scored several new highs and surpassed $64,000 on April 14. By that time it had also grown by over 1,000% from a year-ago, when on March 13, 2020, it crashed 40% intraday to $5,413, according to a new report by CoinGecko, one of the largest independent cryptocurrency data aggregators.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此,这一举动还是让一些观察家感到惊讶。在下跌之前,比特币一直在稳步上涨,许多人预测它将达到 10 万美元不是是否会的问题,而是何时的问题。就在上个季度,这种加密货币创下了几个新高,并在 4 月 14 日突破了 6.4 万美元。根据最大的独立加密货币数据聚合商之一 CoinGecko 的一份新报告,到那时,它也比一年前增长了 1,000% 以上,当时 2020 年 3 月 13 日,它盘中暴跌 40%,至 5,413 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The past week's drop also came after several months of bullish buildup on crypto that dominated financial news headlines.</p><p><blockquote>上周的下跌也是在几个月来主导财经新闻头条的加密货币看涨之后发生的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla had said in March that it was holding bitcoin as an investment asset and would take it as a form of payment. Visa gotfurther into cryptoand Grayscale Investmentsrevealed it planned a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. And then there was the hysteria of Coinbase going public.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉曾在三月份表示,将比特币作为投资资产持有,并将其作为一种支付形式。Visa 进一步涉足加密货币和灰度投资,透露其计划设立比特币交易所交易基金。然后是比特币基地上市的歇斯底里。</blockquote></p><p> \"There was already a massive amount of leverage in the market in anticipation of the Coinbase IPO,\" said Bobby Ong, CoinGecko's chief operating officer, told<i>TheStreet</i>in an email. \"The excitement of having the first crypto company IPO also led bitcoin’s price to hit a new all-time high of $64,804.\"</p><p><blockquote>CoinGecko 首席运营官 Bobby Ong 表示:“在 Coinbase IPO 之前,市场上已经存在大量杠杆。”<i>街道</i>在电子邮件中。“首次加密货币公司 IPO 的兴奋之情也让比特币的股价创下了 64,804 美元的历史新高。”</blockquote></p><p> Further exacerbating last week's selloff was its occurrence during the weekend when there were thinner order books, said Ong. \"With high leverage and thin order books, even a small decrease in price will trigger a sharp drawdown and cause a downward spiral in price.\"</p><p><blockquote>Ong 表示,上周的抛售发生在周末,当时订单较少,这进一步加剧了抛售。“在高杠杆和稀缺订单的情况下,即使价格小幅下降也会引发大幅回调,并导致价格螺旋式下降。”</blockquote></p><p> Now, the market needs to correct itself, because there were many over-leveraged traders, said Ong, adding that bitcoin options expire toward the end of every month, which usually causes increased volatility around that time.</p><p><blockquote>Ong说,现在,市场需要自我纠正,因为有许多过度杠杆的交易者,并补充说,比特币期权在每个月底到期,这通常会导致那个时候的波动性增加。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin Ban?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币·班?</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite bitcoin's rise through mid-April and excitement leading up to Cionbase's offering, it wasn't all glitter and gold for the digital coin in past few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管比特币在 4 月中旬上涨,并且在 Cionbase 发行前引起了人们的兴奋,但在过去几周里,这种数字硬币并不全是闪光和黄金。</blockquote></p><p> Not only did coinbase's initial public offering somewhat disappoint in the days following, but star investors had been growing increasingly vocal about their skepticism of the cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>不仅比特币基地的首次公开募股在接下来的几天里有些令人失望,而且明星投资者对加密货币的怀疑也越来越强烈。</blockquote></p><p> Hedgefund investor Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates told Yahoo News last month that he felt there was a “good probability” bitcoin could become outlawed in the U.S. He also questioned the privacy of the cryptocurrency's transactions. Then, last week, Guggenheim Partners’ Scott Minerd told CNBC that while he's bullish on bitcoin over the long-term, bitcoin is too \"frothy\" and could fall 50%.</p><p><blockquote>桥水联合公司(Bridgewater Associates)的对冲基金投资者雷-达里奥(Ray Dalio)上个月告诉雅虎新闻,他认为比特币在美国被取缔的 “可能性很大 ”。他还质疑加密货币交易的隐私性。上周,古根海姆合伙公司(Guggenheim Partners)的斯科特-米纳德(Scott Minerd)告诉 CNBC,虽然他长期看好比特币,但比特币股市过于 “泡沫”,可能会下跌 50%。</blockquote></p><p> The lukewarm reception from stock investors over Coinbase's direct listing and \"a lot of fear and uncertainty\" spreading on social media didn't help bitcoin, suggested Ong, noting the recent headlines of crypto bans in India and Turkey.</p><p><blockquote>Ong 表示,股票投资者对 Coinbase 直接上市反应冷淡,社交媒体上传播的“大量恐惧和不确定性”对比特币没有帮助,并指出最近印度和土耳其禁止加密货币的头条新闻。</blockquote></p><p> But aside from the technical and fundamental moves in crypto in the waning weeks of April -- much of what happened in the media was little more than hype and speculation, suggested Balter.</p><p><blockquote>但巴尔特表示,除了四月份最后几周加密货币的技术和基本面波动之外,媒体上发生的大部分事情只不过是炒作和猜测。</blockquote></p><p> \"I'd hate to go on record for ever saying Ray Dalio doesn't know what he's talking about,\" said Balter, who is also a partner with venture capital firm True Ventures. \"That said ... like any asset, there's always a great deal of speculation -- bitcoin is esteemed in that it presents both technical and financial implications, and thus magnifies that speculation immensely.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我不想公开说雷·达里奥不知道自己在说什么,”巴尔特说,他也是风险投资公司 True Ventures 的合伙人。“也就是说……像任何资产一样,总是有大量的投机——比特币之所以受到尊重,是因为它同时具有技术和财务影响,从而极大地放大了这种投机。”</blockquote></p><p> And, that people like Dalio and Minerd are even talking about crypto so publicly on the record, shows how far the digital currency has come, noted Balter, also responding to a recent comment by value investor Bill Miller, who told CNBC this month that he sees bitcoin establishing itself in the \"mainstream.\"</p><p><blockquote>而且,像 Dalio 和 Minerd 这样的人甚至公开谈论加密货币,这表明数字货币已经走了多远,Balter 还回应了价值投资者 Bill Miller 最近的评论,Bill Miller 本月告诉 CNBC,他认为比特币正在成为“主流”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"The fact that all three are going on record would indicate that bitcoin is likely entering the mainstream, so hat-tip to Mr. Miller,\" said Balter. \"The volatility of bitcoin has always been part of its allure, so cutting in half isn't out of the question.... Although, I don't think we'll ever see $10,000 levels again. As for Mr. Dalio, unfortunately the concept of outlawing an asset that is conceptually decentralized is pretty much out of the question, and bitcoin transactions are hardly private, so sorry Mr. Dalio, you are pretty off the mark.\"</p><p><blockquote>巴尔特说:“这三个人都创下了纪录,这表明比特币可能会进入主流,所以向米勒先生致敬。”“比特币的波动性一直是其吸引力的一部分,因此将其减半并非不可能……不过,我认为我们再也不会看到 10,000 美元的水平了。至于达里奥先生,不幸的是,取缔概念上去中心化的资产的概念几乎是不可能的,而且比特币交易几乎不是私人交易,所以抱歉达里奥先生,你完全偏离了目标。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity?<blockquote>比特币:繁荣、萧条和巨大的机会?</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity?<blockquote>比特币:繁荣、萧条和巨大的机会?</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-26 08:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>TheStreet taps two crypto experts, Bobby Ong of CoinGecko and Dave Balter of Flipside Crypto, to discuss the April 'bloodbath' and what it means for investors.</p><p><blockquote>TheStreet 邀请了两位加密货币专家,CoinGecko 的 Bobby Ong 和 Flipside Crypto 的 Dave Balter,讨论四月份的“大屠杀”及其对投资者的意义。</blockquote></p><p> Did the world just witness the bitcoin bomb? Or, the chance for a bitcoin buy?</p><p><blockquote>世界刚刚目睹了比特币炸弹吗?或者,购买比特币的机会?</blockquote></p><p> The famed cryptocurrency fell sharply over the past week, sinking from its mid-month high of over $64,000 to Sunday evening, when it fell under $48,000.</p><p><blockquote>这种著名的加密货币在过去一周大幅下跌,从月中超过 64,000 美元的高点下跌至周日晚间跌破 48,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> But the move may prove an opportunity for longer term investors.</p><p><blockquote>但此举可能对长期投资者来说是一个机会。</blockquote></p><p> \"Bitcoin's volatility isn't a flaw, it's a gift -- especially for the up-and-coming investor class of millennials and Gen-Z,\" said Dave Balter, the chief executive of Flipside Crypto, which provides analytics and business intelligence to crypto organizations, in an email to<i>TheStreet.</i>\"The last month is a reflection of its natural cycles, but also of a maturing institutional speculation and futures market.\"</p><p><blockquote>为加密货币组织提供分析和商业智能的 Flipside Crypto 首席执行官戴夫·巴尔特 (Dave Balter) 表示:“比特币的波动性不是缺陷,而是一份礼物——特别是对于千禧一代和 Z 世代等新兴投资者而言。”在一封电子邮件中<i>街道。</i>“上个月是其自然周期的反映,也是机构投机和期货市场走向成熟的反映。”</blockquote></p><p> And, said Balter, any good investor \"knows there's always money to be made with volatile assets.\"</p><p><blockquote>而且,巴尔特说,任何优秀的投资者“都知道波动的资产总能赚钱”。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the move startled some observers. Before the fall, bitcoin had been on a steady upswing, with many forecasting that it was not a question of if, but when, itwould hit $100,000. Just in the past quarter, the cryptocurrency scored several new highs and surpassed $64,000 on April 14. By that time it had also grown by over 1,000% from a year-ago, when on March 13, 2020, it crashed 40% intraday to $5,413, according to a new report by CoinGecko, one of the largest independent cryptocurrency data aggregators.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此,这一举动还是让一些观察家感到惊讶。在下跌之前,比特币一直在稳步上涨,许多人预测它将达到 10 万美元不是是否会的问题,而是何时的问题。就在上个季度,这种加密货币创下了几个新高,并在 4 月 14 日突破了 6.4 万美元。根据最大的独立加密货币数据聚合商之一 CoinGecko 的一份新报告,到那时,它也比一年前增长了 1,000% 以上,当时 2020 年 3 月 13 日,它盘中暴跌 40%,至 5,413 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The past week's drop also came after several months of bullish buildup on crypto that dominated financial news headlines.</p><p><blockquote>上周的下跌也是在几个月来主导财经新闻头条的加密货币看涨之后发生的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla had said in March that it was holding bitcoin as an investment asset and would take it as a form of payment. Visa gotfurther into cryptoand Grayscale Investmentsrevealed it planned a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. And then there was the hysteria of Coinbase going public.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉曾在三月份表示,将比特币作为投资资产持有,并将其作为一种支付形式。Visa 进一步涉足加密货币和灰度投资,透露其计划设立比特币交易所交易基金。然后是比特币基地上市的歇斯底里。</blockquote></p><p> \"There was already a massive amount of leverage in the market in anticipation of the Coinbase IPO,\" said Bobby Ong, CoinGecko's chief operating officer, told<i>TheStreet</i>in an email. \"The excitement of having the first crypto company IPO also led bitcoin’s price to hit a new all-time high of $64,804.\"</p><p><blockquote>CoinGecko 首席运营官 Bobby Ong 表示:“在 Coinbase IPO 之前,市场上已经存在大量杠杆。”<i>街道</i>在电子邮件中。“首次加密货币公司 IPO 的兴奋之情也让比特币的股价创下了 64,804 美元的历史新高。”</blockquote></p><p> Further exacerbating last week's selloff was its occurrence during the weekend when there were thinner order books, said Ong. \"With high leverage and thin order books, even a small decrease in price will trigger a sharp drawdown and cause a downward spiral in price.\"</p><p><blockquote>Ong 表示,上周的抛售发生在周末,当时订单较少,这进一步加剧了抛售。“在高杠杆和稀缺订单的情况下,即使价格小幅下降也会引发大幅回调,并导致价格螺旋式下降。”</blockquote></p><p> Now, the market needs to correct itself, because there were many over-leveraged traders, said Ong, adding that bitcoin options expire toward the end of every month, which usually causes increased volatility around that time.</p><p><blockquote>Ong说,现在,市场需要自我纠正,因为有许多过度杠杆的交易者,并补充说,比特币期权在每个月底到期,这通常会导致那个时候的波动性增加。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin Ban?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币·班?</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite bitcoin's rise through mid-April and excitement leading up to Cionbase's offering, it wasn't all glitter and gold for the digital coin in past few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管比特币在 4 月中旬上涨,并且在 Cionbase 发行前引起了人们的兴奋,但在过去几周里,这种数字硬币并不全是闪光和黄金。</blockquote></p><p> Not only did coinbase's initial public offering somewhat disappoint in the days following, but star investors had been growing increasingly vocal about their skepticism of the cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>不仅比特币基地的首次公开募股在接下来的几天里有些令人失望,而且明星投资者对加密货币的怀疑也越来越强烈。</blockquote></p><p> Hedgefund investor Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates told Yahoo News last month that he felt there was a “good probability” bitcoin could become outlawed in the U.S. He also questioned the privacy of the cryptocurrency's transactions. Then, last week, Guggenheim Partners’ Scott Minerd told CNBC that while he's bullish on bitcoin over the long-term, bitcoin is too \"frothy\" and could fall 50%.</p><p><blockquote>桥水联合公司(Bridgewater Associates)的对冲基金投资者雷-达里奥(Ray Dalio)上个月告诉雅虎新闻,他认为比特币在美国被取缔的 “可能性很大 ”。他还质疑加密货币交易的隐私性。上周,古根海姆合伙公司(Guggenheim Partners)的斯科特-米纳德(Scott Minerd)告诉 CNBC,虽然他长期看好比特币,但比特币股市过于 “泡沫”,可能会下跌 50%。</blockquote></p><p> The lukewarm reception from stock investors over Coinbase's direct listing and \"a lot of fear and uncertainty\" spreading on social media didn't help bitcoin, suggested Ong, noting the recent headlines of crypto bans in India and Turkey.</p><p><blockquote>Ong 表示,股票投资者对 Coinbase 直接上市反应冷淡,社交媒体上传播的“大量恐惧和不确定性”对比特币没有帮助,并指出最近印度和土耳其禁止加密货币的头条新闻。</blockquote></p><p> But aside from the technical and fundamental moves in crypto in the waning weeks of April -- much of what happened in the media was little more than hype and speculation, suggested Balter.</p><p><blockquote>但巴尔特表示,除了四月份最后几周加密货币的技术和基本面波动之外,媒体上发生的大部分事情只不过是炒作和猜测。</blockquote></p><p> \"I'd hate to go on record for ever saying Ray Dalio doesn't know what he's talking about,\" said Balter, who is also a partner with venture capital firm True Ventures. \"That said ... like any asset, there's always a great deal of speculation -- bitcoin is esteemed in that it presents both technical and financial implications, and thus magnifies that speculation immensely.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我不想公开说雷·达里奥不知道自己在说什么,”巴尔特说,他也是风险投资公司 True Ventures 的合伙人。“也就是说……像任何资产一样,总是有大量的投机——比特币之所以受到尊重,是因为它同时具有技术和财务影响,从而极大地放大了这种投机。”</blockquote></p><p> And, that people like Dalio and Minerd are even talking about crypto so publicly on the record, shows how far the digital currency has come, noted Balter, also responding to a recent comment by value investor Bill Miller, who told CNBC this month that he sees bitcoin establishing itself in the \"mainstream.\"</p><p><blockquote>而且,像 Dalio 和 Minerd 这样的人甚至公开谈论加密货币,这表明数字货币已经走了多远,Balter 还回应了价值投资者 Bill Miller 最近的评论,Bill Miller 本月告诉 CNBC,他认为比特币正在成为“主流”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"The fact that all three are going on record would indicate that bitcoin is likely entering the mainstream, so hat-tip to Mr. Miller,\" said Balter. \"The volatility of bitcoin has always been part of its allure, so cutting in half isn't out of the question.... Although, I don't think we'll ever see $10,000 levels again. As for Mr. Dalio, unfortunately the concept of outlawing an asset that is conceptually decentralized is pretty much out of the question, and bitcoin transactions are hardly private, so sorry Mr. Dalio, you are pretty off the mark.\"</p><p><blockquote>巴尔特说:“这三个人都创下了纪录,这表明比特币可能会进入主流,所以向米勒先生致敬。”“比特币的波动性一直是其吸引力的一部分,因此将其减半并非不可能……不过,我认为我们再也不会看到 10,000 美元的水平了。至于达里奥先生,不幸的是,取缔概念上去中心化的资产的概念几乎是不可能的,而且比特币交易几乎不是私人交易,所以抱歉达里奥先生,你完全偏离了目标。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/bitcoin/thestreet-taps-two-crypto-experts-bobby-ong-of-coingecko-and-dave-balter-of-flipside-crypto-to-discuss-the-april-bloodbath-and-what-it-means-for-investors\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","PYPL":"PayPal","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/bitcoin/thestreet-taps-two-crypto-experts-bobby-ong-of-coingecko-and-dave-balter-of-flipside-crypto-to-discuss-the-april-bloodbath-and-what-it-means-for-investors","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158968268","content_text":"TheStreet taps two crypto experts, Bobby Ong of CoinGecko and Dave Balter of Flipside Crypto, to discuss the April 'bloodbath' and what it means for investors.\nDid the world just witness the bitcoin bomb? Or, the chance for a bitcoin buy?\nThe famed cryptocurrency fell sharply over the past week, sinking from its mid-month high of over $64,000 to Sunday evening, when it fell under $48,000.\nBut the move may prove an opportunity for longer term investors.\n\"Bitcoin's volatility isn't a flaw, it's a gift -- especially for the up-and-coming investor class of millennials and Gen-Z,\" said Dave Balter, the chief executive of Flipside Crypto, which provides analytics and business intelligence to crypto organizations, in an email toTheStreet.\"The last month is a reflection of its natural cycles, but also of a maturing institutional speculation and futures market.\"\nAnd, said Balter, any good investor \"knows there's always money to be made with volatile assets.\"\nStill, the move startled some observers. Before the fall, bitcoin had been on a steady upswing, with many forecasting that it was not a question of if, but when, itwould hit $100,000. Just in the past quarter, the cryptocurrency scored several new highs and surpassed $64,000 on April 14. By that time it had also grown by over 1,000% from a year-ago, when on March 13, 2020, it crashed 40% intraday to $5,413, according to a new report by CoinGecko, one of the largest independent cryptocurrency data aggregators.\nThe past week's drop also came after several months of bullish buildup on crypto that dominated financial news headlines.\nTesla had said in March that it was holding bitcoin as an investment asset and would take it as a form of payment. Visa gotfurther into cryptoand Grayscale Investmentsrevealed it planned a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. And then there was the hysteria of Coinbase going public.\n\"There was already a massive amount of leverage in the market in anticipation of the Coinbase IPO,\" said Bobby Ong, CoinGecko's chief operating officer, toldTheStreetin an email. \"The excitement of having the first crypto company IPO also led bitcoin’s price to hit a new all-time high of $64,804.\"\nFurther exacerbating last week's selloff was its occurrence during the weekend when there were thinner order books, said Ong. \"With high leverage and thin order books, even a small decrease in price will trigger a sharp drawdown and cause a downward spiral in price.\"\nNow, the market needs to correct itself, because there were many over-leveraged traders, said Ong, adding that bitcoin options expire toward the end of every month, which usually causes increased volatility around that time.\nBitcoin Ban?\nDespite bitcoin's rise through mid-April and excitement leading up to Cionbase's offering, it wasn't all glitter and gold for the digital coin in past few weeks.\nNot only did coinbase's initial public offering somewhat disappoint in the days following, but star investors had been growing increasingly vocal about their skepticism of the cryptocurrency.\nHedgefund investor Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates told Yahoo News last month that he felt there was a “good probability” bitcoin could become outlawed in the U.S. He also questioned the privacy of the cryptocurrency's transactions. Then, last week, Guggenheim Partners’ Scott Minerd told CNBC that while he's bullish on bitcoin over the long-term, bitcoin is too \"frothy\" and could fall 50%.\nThe lukewarm reception from stock investors over Coinbase's direct listing and \"a lot of fear and uncertainty\" spreading on social media didn't help bitcoin, suggested Ong, noting the recent headlines of crypto bans in India and Turkey.\nBut aside from the technical and fundamental moves in crypto in the waning weeks of April -- much of what happened in the media was little more than hype and speculation, suggested Balter.\n\"I'd hate to go on record for ever saying Ray Dalio doesn't know what he's talking about,\" said Balter, who is also a partner with venture capital firm True Ventures. \"That said ... like any asset, there's always a great deal of speculation -- bitcoin is esteemed in that it presents both technical and financial implications, and thus magnifies that speculation immensely.\"\nAnd, that people like Dalio and Minerd are even talking about crypto so publicly on the record, shows how far the digital currency has come, noted Balter, also responding to a recent comment by value investor Bill Miller, who told CNBC this month that he sees bitcoin establishing itself in the \"mainstream.\"\n\"The fact that all three are going on record would indicate that bitcoin is likely entering the mainstream, so hat-tip to Mr. Miller,\" said Balter. \"The volatility of bitcoin has always been part of its allure, so cutting in half isn't out of the question.... Although, I don't think we'll ever see $10,000 levels again. As for Mr. Dalio, unfortunately the concept of outlawing an asset that is conceptually decentralized is pretty much out of the question, and bitcoin transactions are hardly private, so sorry Mr. Dalio, you are pretty off the mark.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BTCmain":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"PYPL":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357185457,"gmtCreate":1617246830679,"gmtModify":1634521821979,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573824362072096","authorIdStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Money, money and more money!! 😂","listText":"Money, money and more money!! 😂","text":"Money, money and more money!! 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357185457","repostId":"1172735914","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351487117,"gmtCreate":1616626624139,"gmtModify":1634524899190,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573824362072096","authorIdStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hahaha, Who can predict the price of Bitcoin in the future? 😂","listText":"Hahaha, Who can predict the price of Bitcoin in the future? 😂","text":"Hahaha, Who can predict the price of Bitcoin in the future? 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351487117","repostId":"2121457670","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327128921,"gmtCreate":1616071907063,"gmtModify":1634527392484,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573824362072096","authorIdStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Economy pick up, good? If inflation goes up, which is better, stocks or bonds?","listText":"Economy pick up, good? If inflation goes up, which is better, stocks or bonds?","text":"Economy pick up, good? If inflation goes up, which is better, stocks or bonds?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327128921","repostId":"2120308231","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327904493,"gmtCreate":1616045517412,"gmtModify":1703496830771,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573824362072096","authorIdStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Fed has stated their position, and market is happy with it. 😂","listText":"Fed has stated their position, and market is happy with it. 😂","text":"Fed has stated their position, and market is happy with it. 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327904493","repostId":"1190013109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190013109","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616029868,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1190013109?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 09:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference<blockquote>我们从杰罗姆-鲍威尔的新闻发布会上学到了什么,又没有学到什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190013109","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here are some key takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday — what we l","content":"<p>Here are some key takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday — what we learned, and what we didn’t, and some of the fun we had along the way.</p><p><blockquote>以下是美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)周三新闻发布会的一些要点--我们学到了什么,没有学到什么,以及我们一路上的一些乐趣。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists said that Powell conducted a master class on communication.</p><p><blockquote>有经济学家说,鲍威尔上了一堂关于传播的大师课。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a004e684c5e894d50023b88db3fcbd01\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"303\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed intends to be dovish until data indicates otherwise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储打算采取鸽派态度,直到数据显示相反情况</b></blockquote></p><p> The first step for the Fed to pull back its easy policy stance will be to slow, or taper, its $120 billion-per-month in asset purchases. The Fed has said it wants to make “substantial further progress” on its twin goals of maximum employment and stable 2% inflation, but has not defined this much further.</p><p><blockquote>美联储收回宽松政策立场的第一步将是放缓或缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。美联储曾表示,希望在最大限度就业和稳定2%通胀的双重目标上取得 “实质性进一步进展”,但并未对此做出进一步定义。</blockquote></p><p> Powell said the 465,000 jobs created in the private sector in February was “a nice pick-up,” but he quickly added “you can go so much higher, though.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说,2 月份私营部门创造的 46.5 万个就业岗位 “是一个不错的增长”,但他很快补充说,“不过,你还可以走得更高”。</blockquote></p><p> “To achieve substantial progress from where we are is going to take some time — I don’t want to put a pin in the calendar someplace because it’s going to take some time,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说:”从我们目前的情况来看,要取得实质性进展需要一些时间--我不想在日历上的某个地方钉上大头针,因为这需要一些时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>When will the data indicate otherwise? We’ll get back to you on that</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据什么时候会显示其他情况?我们会回复你的</b></blockquote></p><p> “Until we give a signal, you can assume we’re not there yet,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>“鲍威尔说:”在我们发出信号之前,你可以认为我们还没有到达那里。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bad inflation readings this year won’t upset the apple cart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>今年糟糕的通胀数据不会扰乱苹果的购物车</b></blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s economic forecast and “dot plot” seemed almost designed to hammer home the notion that the Fed won’t be spooked by higher inflation. Despite a forecast of 2.4% headline inflation this year, the Fed ‘s “dot-plot” showed no rate hikes through the end of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的经济预测和 “点阵图 ”似乎几乎是为了强化美联储不会被通胀上升吓倒的观念。尽管预测今年总体通胀率为 2.4%,但美联储的 “点阵图 ”显示,到 2023 年底都不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> Powell acknowledged prices will go up when Americans decide to go out again and eat in restaurants and go on airplanes as the pandemic wanes. But this will be a one-time bulge on prices that won’t change inflation going forward. Service-sector inflation isn’t like inflation for televisions or other goods.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔承认,随着疫情的减弱,当美国人决定再次外出、在餐馆吃饭和乘飞机时,价格将会上涨。但这将是一次性的物价上涨,不会改变未来的通货膨胀。服务业的通胀不同于电视机或其他商品的通胀。</blockquote></p><p> “You can only go out to dinner once per night,” the Fed chairman said.</p><p><blockquote>“美联储主席说:”你每晚只能出去吃一次晚餐。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d1de1c6bb04ff0208bb5b68618167c\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"381\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed officials don’t know how the economy will look in September any more than you do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储官员并不比你更了解 9 月份的经济形势</b></blockquote></p><p> Powell stressed that the outlook remains highly uncertain. “We haven’t come out of a pandemic before, we haven’t had this type of fiscal support,” he said,</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔强调,前景仍然高度不确定。“他说:”我们以前从未走出大流行病,我们从未得到过这种类型的财政支持、</blockquote></p><p> Some of the worst-case scenarios are receding — there had been a concern that workers would be “scarred” without the job skills to find employment after the pandemic. With strong support from Congress, “we probably avoided the worst cases there,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>一些最坏的情况正在消退--人们曾担心,在大流行病过后,如果没有找到工作的工作技能,工人将会 “伤痕累累”。鲍威尔说,在国会的大力支持下,“我们可能避免了那里最糟糕的情况”。</blockquote></p><p> But sometimes, Powell’s innate optimism seemed to leak out.</p><p><blockquote>但有时,鲍威尔与生俱来的乐观情绪似乎会泄露出来。</blockquote></p><p> “The data could get stronger fairly quickly here,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说:”这里的数据可能会很快变得更加强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Weak growth in Europe won’t spill over into U.S.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>欧洲的疲软增长不会蔓延到美国。</b></blockquote></p><p> Powell said he didn’t think the weak European economy would drag down U.S. growth, as happened after the Great Recession. “We’re in a good place,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说,他认为欧洲经济疲软不会像大衰退后那样拖累美国经济增长。“他说:”我们处境不错。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A decision on the SLR (supplementary leveraged ratio) will come soon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于 SLR(补充杠杆率)的决定即将做出</b></blockquote></p><p> In the heat of the pandemic crisis last year, the Fed temporarily excluded Treasurys and deposits at the Fed from the calculation of the supplementary leverage ratio — a key metric on the soundness of a bank. The SLR requires banks to maintain a minimum level of capital against assets without factoring in risks. Some analysts worry that ending the exclusion of Treasurys will, all things being equal,reduce demand for Treasurys at big banks.But other analysts think this is way overstated. Powell wouldn’t touch the issue — he only said that a decision was expected in a few days.</p><p><blockquote>在去年疫情危机最严重的时候,美联储暂时将美国国债和美联储存款排除在补充杠杆率的计算之外——补充杠杆率是衡量银行稳健性的关键指标。SLR要求银行在不考虑风险的情况下,将资本与资产保持在最低水平。一些分析师担心,在所有条件相同的情况下,结束对国债的排除将减少大银行对国债的需求。但其他分析师认为这是夸大其词。鲍威尔不愿谈及这个问题--他只是说预计几天后就会做出决定。</blockquote></p><p> But this disheartened some experts who want the exemption to be ended. After all, if the Fed wanted the exemption to end, it didn’t have to make any announcement at all, noted Jeremy Kress, a former Fed staffer and now an assistant professor of business law at Michigan Ross business school.</p><p><blockquote>但这让一些希望结束豁免的专家感到沮丧。前美联储工作人员、现任密歇根罗斯商学院商业法助理教授杰里米-克雷斯(Jeremy Kress)指出,毕竟,如果美联储希望结束豁免,它根本不必发布任何公告。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3eaacf5eed71300b67824f22aff330\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"545\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Financial markets were glad to see the Fed being so unconcerned about higher inflation.</p><p><blockquote>金融市场很高兴看到美联储对通胀上升如此漠不关心。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks pushed higher Wednesday,reversing earlier losses, after Fed policy makers left the central bank’s easy money stance in place, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 33,000 for the first time.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储决策者维持央行的宽松货币立场不变后,美国股市周三走高,扭转了早些时候的跌势,道琼斯工业平均指数首次收于 33,000 点上方。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference<blockquote>我们从杰罗姆-鲍威尔的新闻发布会上学到了什么,又没有学到什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference<blockquote>我们从杰罗姆-鲍威尔的新闻发布会上学到了什么,又没有学到什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 09:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Here are some key takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday — what we learned, and what we didn’t, and some of the fun we had along the way.</p><p><blockquote>以下是美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)周三新闻发布会的一些要点--我们学到了什么,没有学到什么,以及我们一路上的一些乐趣。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists said that Powell conducted a master class on communication.</p><p><blockquote>有经济学家说,鲍威尔上了一堂关于传播的大师课。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a004e684c5e894d50023b88db3fcbd01\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"303\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed intends to be dovish until data indicates otherwise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储打算采取鸽派态度,直到数据显示相反情况</b></blockquote></p><p> The first step for the Fed to pull back its easy policy stance will be to slow, or taper, its $120 billion-per-month in asset purchases. The Fed has said it wants to make “substantial further progress” on its twin goals of maximum employment and stable 2% inflation, but has not defined this much further.</p><p><blockquote>美联储收回宽松政策立场的第一步将是放缓或缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。美联储曾表示,希望在最大限度就业和稳定2%通胀的双重目标上取得 “实质性进一步进展”,但并未对此做出进一步定义。</blockquote></p><p> Powell said the 465,000 jobs created in the private sector in February was “a nice pick-up,” but he quickly added “you can go so much higher, though.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说,2 月份私营部门创造的 46.5 万个就业岗位 “是一个不错的增长”,但他很快补充说,“不过,你还可以走得更高”。</blockquote></p><p> “To achieve substantial progress from where we are is going to take some time — I don’t want to put a pin in the calendar someplace because it’s going to take some time,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说:”从我们目前的情况来看,要取得实质性进展需要一些时间--我不想在日历上的某个地方钉上大头针,因为这需要一些时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>When will the data indicate otherwise? We’ll get back to you on that</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据什么时候会显示其他情况?我们会回复你的</b></blockquote></p><p> “Until we give a signal, you can assume we’re not there yet,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>“鲍威尔说:”在我们发出信号之前,你可以认为我们还没有到达那里。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bad inflation readings this year won’t upset the apple cart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>今年糟糕的通胀数据不会扰乱苹果的购物车</b></blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s economic forecast and “dot plot” seemed almost designed to hammer home the notion that the Fed won’t be spooked by higher inflation. Despite a forecast of 2.4% headline inflation this year, the Fed ‘s “dot-plot” showed no rate hikes through the end of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的经济预测和 “点阵图 ”似乎几乎是为了强化美联储不会被通胀上升吓倒的观念。尽管预测今年总体通胀率为 2.4%,但美联储的 “点阵图 ”显示,到 2023 年底都不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> Powell acknowledged prices will go up when Americans decide to go out again and eat in restaurants and go on airplanes as the pandemic wanes. But this will be a one-time bulge on prices that won’t change inflation going forward. Service-sector inflation isn’t like inflation for televisions or other goods.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔承认,随着疫情的减弱,当美国人决定再次外出、在餐馆吃饭和乘飞机时,价格将会上涨。但这将是一次性的物价上涨,不会改变未来的通货膨胀。服务业的通胀不同于电视机或其他商品的通胀。</blockquote></p><p> “You can only go out to dinner once per night,” the Fed chairman said.</p><p><blockquote>“美联储主席说:”你每晚只能出去吃一次晚餐。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d1de1c6bb04ff0208bb5b68618167c\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"381\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed officials don’t know how the economy will look in September any more than you do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储官员并不比你更了解 9 月份的经济形势</b></blockquote></p><p> Powell stressed that the outlook remains highly uncertain. “We haven’t come out of a pandemic before, we haven’t had this type of fiscal support,” he said,</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔强调,前景仍然高度不确定。“他说:”我们以前从未走出大流行病,我们从未得到过这种类型的财政支持、</blockquote></p><p> Some of the worst-case scenarios are receding — there had been a concern that workers would be “scarred” without the job skills to find employment after the pandemic. With strong support from Congress, “we probably avoided the worst cases there,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>一些最坏的情况正在消退--人们曾担心,在大流行病过后,如果没有找到工作的工作技能,工人将会 “伤痕累累”。鲍威尔说,在国会的大力支持下,“我们可能避免了那里最糟糕的情况”。</blockquote></p><p> But sometimes, Powell’s innate optimism seemed to leak out.</p><p><blockquote>但有时,鲍威尔与生俱来的乐观情绪似乎会泄露出来。</blockquote></p><p> “The data could get stronger fairly quickly here,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说:”这里的数据可能会很快变得更加强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Weak growth in Europe won’t spill over into U.S.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>欧洲的疲软增长不会蔓延到美国。</b></blockquote></p><p> Powell said he didn’t think the weak European economy would drag down U.S. growth, as happened after the Great Recession. “We’re in a good place,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说,他认为欧洲经济疲软不会像大衰退后那样拖累美国经济增长。“他说:”我们处境不错。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A decision on the SLR (supplementary leveraged ratio) will come soon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于 SLR(补充杠杆率)的决定即将做出</b></blockquote></p><p> In the heat of the pandemic crisis last year, the Fed temporarily excluded Treasurys and deposits at the Fed from the calculation of the supplementary leverage ratio — a key metric on the soundness of a bank. The SLR requires banks to maintain a minimum level of capital against assets without factoring in risks. Some analysts worry that ending the exclusion of Treasurys will, all things being equal,reduce demand for Treasurys at big banks.But other analysts think this is way overstated. Powell wouldn’t touch the issue — he only said that a decision was expected in a few days.</p><p><blockquote>在去年疫情危机最严重的时候,美联储暂时将美国国债和美联储存款排除在补充杠杆率的计算之外——补充杠杆率是衡量银行稳健性的关键指标。SLR要求银行在不考虑风险的情况下,将资本与资产保持在最低水平。一些分析师担心,在所有条件相同的情况下,结束对国债的排除将减少大银行对国债的需求。但其他分析师认为这是夸大其词。鲍威尔不愿谈及这个问题--他只是说预计几天后就会做出决定。</blockquote></p><p> But this disheartened some experts who want the exemption to be ended. After all, if the Fed wanted the exemption to end, it didn’t have to make any announcement at all, noted Jeremy Kress, a former Fed staffer and now an assistant professor of business law at Michigan Ross business school.</p><p><blockquote>但这让一些希望结束豁免的专家感到沮丧。前美联储工作人员、现任密歇根罗斯商学院商业法助理教授杰里米-克雷斯(Jeremy Kress)指出,毕竟,如果美联储希望结束豁免,它根本不必发布任何公告。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3eaacf5eed71300b67824f22aff330\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"545\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Financial markets were glad to see the Fed being so unconcerned about higher inflation.</p><p><blockquote>金融市场很高兴看到美联储对通胀上升如此漠不关心。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks pushed higher Wednesday,reversing earlier losses, after Fed policy makers left the central bank’s easy money stance in place, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 33,000 for the first time.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储决策者维持央行的宽松货币立场不变后,美国股市周三走高,扭转了早些时候的跌势,道琼斯工业平均指数首次收于 33,000 点上方。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-we-learned-and-what-we-didnt-from-jerome-powells-press-conference-11616022318?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-we-learned-and-what-we-didnt-from-jerome-powells-press-conference-11616022318?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1190013109","content_text":"Here are some key takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday — what we learned, and what we didn’t, and some of the fun we had along the way.\nSome economists said that Powell conducted a master class on communication.\n\nFed intends to be dovish until data indicates otherwise\nThe first step for the Fed to pull back its easy policy stance will be to slow, or taper, its $120 billion-per-month in asset purchases. The Fed has said it wants to make “substantial further progress” on its twin goals of maximum employment and stable 2% inflation, but has not defined this much further.\nPowell said the 465,000 jobs created in the private sector in February was “a nice pick-up,” but he quickly added “you can go so much higher, though.”\n“To achieve substantial progress from where we are is going to take some time — I don’t want to put a pin in the calendar someplace because it’s going to take some time,” he said.\nWhen will the data indicate otherwise? We’ll get back to you on that\n“Until we give a signal, you can assume we’re not there yet,” Powell said.\nBad inflation readings this year won’t upset the apple cart\nThe Fed’s economic forecast and “dot plot” seemed almost designed to hammer home the notion that the Fed won’t be spooked by higher inflation. Despite a forecast of 2.4% headline inflation this year, the Fed ‘s “dot-plot” showed no rate hikes through the end of 2023.\nPowell acknowledged prices will go up when Americans decide to go out again and eat in restaurants and go on airplanes as the pandemic wanes. But this will be a one-time bulge on prices that won’t change inflation going forward. Service-sector inflation isn’t like inflation for televisions or other goods.\n“You can only go out to dinner once per night,” the Fed chairman said.\n\nFed officials don’t know how the economy will look in September any more than you do\nPowell stressed that the outlook remains highly uncertain. “We haven’t come out of a pandemic before, we haven’t had this type of fiscal support,” he said,\nSome of the worst-case scenarios are receding — there had been a concern that workers would be “scarred” without the job skills to find employment after the pandemic. With strong support from Congress, “we probably avoided the worst cases there,” Powell said.\nBut sometimes, Powell’s innate optimism seemed to leak out.\n“The data could get stronger fairly quickly here,” he said.\nWeak growth in Europe won’t spill over into U.S.\nPowell said he didn’t think the weak European economy would drag down U.S. growth, as happened after the Great Recession. “We’re in a good place,” he said.\nA decision on the SLR (supplementary leveraged ratio) will come soon\nIn the heat of the pandemic crisis last year, the Fed temporarily excluded Treasurys and deposits at the Fed from the calculation of the supplementary leverage ratio — a key metric on the soundness of a bank. The SLR requires banks to maintain a minimum level of capital against assets without factoring in risks. Some analysts worry that ending the exclusion of Treasurys will, all things being equal,reduce demand for Treasurys at big banks.But other analysts think this is way overstated. Powell wouldn’t touch the issue — he only said that a decision was expected in a few days.\nBut this disheartened some experts who want the exemption to be ended. After all, if the Fed wanted the exemption to end, it didn’t have to make any announcement at all, noted Jeremy Kress, a former Fed staffer and now an assistant professor of business law at Michigan Ross business school.\n\nFinancial markets were glad to see the Fed being so unconcerned about higher inflation.\nU.S. stocks pushed higher Wednesday,reversing earlier losses, after Fed policy makers left the central bank’s easy money stance in place, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 33,000 for the first time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324381115,"gmtCreate":1615963809237,"gmtModify":1703495596253,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573824362072096","authorIdStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Market is seems like depending on Fed for next move. 😅","listText":"Market is seems like depending on Fed for next move. 😅","text":"Market is seems like depending on Fed for next move. 😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324381115","repostId":"1103121082","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103121082","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615948559,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1103121082?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 10:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting<blockquote>轻松赚钱、点阵图和美联储的困境: 重要会议的投资者指南</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103121082","media":"Barrons","summary":"The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter ec","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter economic forecasts while trying to assure investors that it is still “not thinking about thinking about” lifting interest rates—and that it doesn’t need to.</p><p><blockquote>美联储本周采取了一个尴尬的平衡行动:它很可能会立即发布更乐观的经济预测,同时试图向投资者保证,美联储仍然 “没有考虑 ”加息,而且也不需要加息。</blockquote></p><p> More-optimistic estimates for gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation would typically prompt an acknowledgement that monetary policy would, in turn, begin to tighten. For a data-dependent Fed, the message that the economy is improving much faster than expected is at odds with the message that rates will remain near zero through 2023. How the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy arm, tries to square those conflicting dynamics will be in focus as investors take in new economic forecasts, the dot plot showing updated rate predictions, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.</p><p><blockquote>对国内生产总值、失业率和通货膨胀的更乐观的估计通常会促使人们承认货币政策将反过来开始收紧。对于依赖数据的美联储来说,经济改善速度远超预期的信息与利率将在 2023 年之前保持接近于零的信息不一致。随着投资者对新的经济预测、显示最新利率预测的点阵图以及主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)的新闻发布会的关注,美联储的政策机构联邦公开市场委员会将如何试图平衡这些相互矛盾的动态。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a fine line for them to walk,” says Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, as the bond market prices in more tightening amid improving economic data, Covid-19 vaccinations, and building inflation concerns, while the Fed reiterates its dovish stance. “How do you telegraph patience while conveying you won’t be behind the curve?”</p><p><blockquote>“牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)首席美国金融经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇(Kathy Bostjancic)说:”这对他们来说是一条微妙的路线,因为在经济数据改善、Covid-19 疫苗接种和通胀担忧加剧的情况下,债券市场价格进一步收紧,而美联储则重申了其鸽派立场。“你如何在传达你不会落后于时代的同时传达耐心?”</blockquote></p><p> The rate decision and updated materials will be released this Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern time, with Powell’s question-and-answer session following. Here is a run down of what Wall Street is watching.</p><p><blockquote>费率决定和更新材料将于本周三下午2点发布东部时间,鲍威尔将进行问答环节。以下是华尔街正在关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Updated economic forecasts:</b>In the December Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC projected 4.2% GDP growth for 2021 and 3.2% for 2022, bringing its inflation expectation to 2% by the end of 2023 and thus implying rates would begin to rise in 2024.</p><p><blockquote><b>更新的经济预测:</b>在 12 月份的经济预测摘要中,FOMC 预计 2021 年 GDP 增长率为 4.2%,2022 年为 3.2%,到 2023 年底通胀预期将达到 2%,从而意味着利率将在 2024 年开始上升。</blockquote></p><p> Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, thinks the FOMC will raise GDP forecasts for the next two years to about 6% and 4%, respectively. This should push the unemployment rate below the natural rate (the lowest unemployment rate an economy can sustain with inflation remaining stable) by the second half of 2022, she says, meaning the 2% inflation forecast would be pulled forward to the end of 2022—and the first rate hike therefore pulled forward to 2023. (In December, the Fed projected inflation at a 1.8% rate at the end of this year.)</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies首席经济学家Aneta Markowska认为,FOMC将把未来两年的GDP预测分别上调至6%和4%左右。她表示,到 2022 年下半年,这应该会将失业率推至自然率以下(在通胀保持稳定的情况下,一个经济体可以维持的最低失业率),这意味着 2% 的通胀预测将被提前至 2022 年底——因此,第一次加息被提前至 2023 年。(12月,美联储预计今年年底通胀率为1.8%。)</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials have expressed comfort in letting inflation run hotter than the 2% target. The question is by how much. Even though the FOMC will likely repeat that the recovery will slow after this year, new forecasts may show inflation of over 2% in both 2022 and 2023 alongside an unemployment rate of 3.5% by the end of 2023, thereby meeting the Fed’s criteria of inflation above 2% and “maximum employment,” says David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员对让通胀率高于 2% 的目标表示欣慰。问题是多少。摩根大通基金(J.P. Morgan Funds)首席全球策略师大卫-凯利(David Kelly)表示,尽管联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)可能会重申今年之后经济复苏将放缓,但新的预测可能会显示,2022 年和 2023 年的通胀率都将超过 2%,到 2023 年底失业率将达到 3.5%,从而满足美联储关于通胀率高于 2% 和 “最大就业 ”的标准。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists, however, say the Fed may focus more on a broader unemployment rate, known as the U-6 rate, that includes discouraged workers plus those who are working part time but would prefer to work full time, among others. That would give policy makers more breathing room given how much higher U-6 stands (11.1%) compared with the “official” U-3 rate (6.2%).</p><p><blockquote>然而,一些经济学家表示,美联储可能会更多地关注更广泛的失业率,即所谓的U-6失业率,其中包括沮丧的工人以及那些从事兼职工作但更愿意全职工作的工人等。鉴于 U-6 的比率(11.1%)远高于 “官方 ”U-3 的比率(6.2%),这将给政策制定者更多的喘息空间。</blockquote></p><p> Given the Fed’s new policy framework defines maximum employment as consisting of ‘broad-based and inclusive’ employment, investors looking to handicap the Fed’s next rate move should monitor the U-6 unemployment rate, says Bostjancic of Oxford Economics.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)的博斯特扬西奇(Bostjancic)表示,鉴于美联储的新政策框架将最大就业定义为 “基础广泛、包容性 ”就业,希望阻碍美联储下一次利率走势的投资者应关注 U-6 失业率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The dot plot:</b>In December, only one of 17 FOMC members submitting forecasts saw a rate hike by the end of 2022 and five saw a rate hike by the end of 2023. While some economists say Fed officials may be wary of lifting their dots, or appearing more hawkish and thereby adding fuel to a surge in long-term interest rates that has been under way, others say the Fed has to show some change in its rate outlook.</p><p><blockquote><b>点阵图:</b>12 月,提交预测的 17 名 FOMC 成员中只有 1 名成员预计到 2022 年底加息,5 名成员预计到 2023 年底加息。尽管一些经济学家表示,美联储官员可能对提高他们的点数或显得更加鹰派持谨慎态度,从而加剧正在进行的长期利率飙升,但其他人表示,美联储必须在其利率前景中表现出一些变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the magnitude of the likely forecast revisions, it would be hard to justify no change in the policy outlook,” says Markowska. “Not doing so would be inconsistent with data-dependency and would strongly suggest that the Fed is calendar dependent (which the Fed insists it isn’t).” At the same time, she says, the Fed hasn’t pushed back against the recent repricing of rate expectations, which is an implicit endorsement of what’s already priced in.</p><p><blockquote>“马尔科夫斯卡说:”鉴于预测可能修正的幅度,很难证明政策前景不改变是合理的。“不这样做将不符合数据依赖性,并将强烈表明美联储依赖于日历(美联储坚称它不是)。”她说,与此同时,美联储并没有反击最近对利率预期的重新定价,这是对已经定价的隐性认可。</blockquote></p><p> Bostjancic expects the median forecast to show at least one 0.25% rate hike during 2023, while Markowska thinks the median 2023 dot could rise to 0.375% (she notes only 4 members need to lift their dots—or signal a higher expected Fed funds rate by the end of 2023—to move the median rate projection. The bond market has priced in three quarter-point increases by the end of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>Bostjancic 预计预测中值将显示 2023 年至少加息一次 0.25%,而 Markowska 则认为 2023 年 dot 中值可能会升至 0.375%(她指出,只有 4 名成员需要提高 dot,或在 2023 年底前发出更高预期联邦基金利率的信号),即可移动利率预测中值。债券市场已预计到 2023 年底将加息三个四分之一点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Bond market action:</b>How the Treasury market reacts to the new Fed information will be at least as interesting as the information itself. Instead of the Fed potentially catching up to where the market already is in terms of rate expectations, Bostjancic says even a whiff of the Fed pulling forward rate hike expectations could spur the bond market to price in more tightening.</p><p><blockquote><b>债券市场行动:</b>国债市场对美联储新信息的反应至少与信息本身一样有趣。Bostjancic表示,即使美联储稍微提前加息预期,也可能刺激债券市场消化更多紧缩政策,而不是美联储在利率预期方面可能赶上市场已经处于的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Ian Lyngen, head of rates strategy at BMO Capital, says chances are low Powell will meaningfully alter his stance on the recent yield action, maintaining that as long as the move is driven by an improving economic outlook and inflation expectations, the repricing is for the right reasons. “Needless to say, higher yields are good until they are not and it’s just such an inflection point that represents the more significant policy risk for the Fed,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>BMO Capital 利率策略主管伊恩·林根 (Ian Lyngen) 表示,鲍威尔不太可能有意义地改变他对最近收益率行动的立场,他坚持认为,只要此举是由经济前景和通胀预期改善推动的,重新定价就是出于正确的原因。“他说:”不用说,更高的收益率是好事,直到它们不好,而这正是美联储面临的更大政策风险的拐点。</blockquote></p><p> Lyngen is watching the 1.64% level on the 10-year (it was last week’s yield peak as well as the highest for the benchmark since early-February 2020) and has a 1.75% target on the note.</p><p><blockquote>林根正在关注 10 年期国债 1.64% 的水平(这是上周的收益率峰值,也是该基准自 2020 年 2 月初以来的最高收益率),并将该票据的目标定为 1.75%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SLR exemption extension:</b>Potentially contributing to bond market action on Wednesday will be any signal around the Fed’s plan for a popular program launched last April, as pandemic-driven shutdowns cascaded.</p><p><blockquote><b>SLR豁免延期:</b>随着大流行病导致的停摆接踵而至,围绕美联储去年 4 月推出的一项广受欢迎的计划的任何信号都可能导致周三债券市场的走势。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is hoping for an extension of a temporary exemption of Treasuries and bank deposits at the Fed Reserve Banks from the banks’ Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which requires financial institutions hold a minimum ratio of at least 3% in capital measured against their total leverage exposure. The exemption is set to expire at the end of March.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街希望延长美联储银行对国债和银行存款的临时豁免期限,该期限要求金融机构持有至少 3% 的最低资本比率,以其总杠杆敞口衡量。该豁免将于三月底到期。</blockquote></p><p> The exemption’s fate has big implications. Over the past year, banks have increased their purchases of Treasuries by a large $854 billion, while bank reserves have ballooned by $1.8 trillion, Bostjancic notes. Economists say the lack of an extension could significantly lessen banks’ appetite for Treasuries, putting even more upward pressure on yields.</p><p><blockquote>豁免的命运影响重大。Bostjancic 指出,过去一年,银行增加了 8,540 亿美元的国债购买量,而银行准备金则激增了 1.8 万亿美元。经济学家表示,缺乏延期可能会大大降低银行对美国国债的兴趣,从而给收益率带来更大的上行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Further easing watch:</b>Wall Street generally doesn’t expect more easing unless yields stage a more disorderly surge and financial conditions meaningfully tighten. For now, the FOMC “is reasonably well positioned to stay the course for the time being,” Lyngen says, “even if such an outcome involves the risk of tacitly endorsing a further Treasury selloff at stage when investors are wary, if not worried.”</p><p><blockquote><b>进一步放松观察:</b>除非收益率出现更无序的飙升,金融状况有意义地收紧,否则华尔街普遍预计不会出现更多宽松政策。林根说,就目前而言,联邦公开市场委员会 “处于相当有利的位置,可以暂时坚持到底”,“即使这样的结果涉及在投资者谨慎甚至担忧的情况下,默许进一步抛售美国国债的风险”。</blockquote></p><p> As for potential responses to any disorderly jump in yields, economists say the Fed has a few options. Most immediately, the Fed could opt to lengthen the duration of its current asset purchases, says Bostjancic. As of December, the average maturity under the current program was 7.4 years, she says, adding that policy makers could start buying 10- to 30-year Treasuries. Doing so would effectively be one part of a new “operation twist,” with the other leg involving the sale of short-date Treasury bills, Bostjancic says.</p><p><blockquote>至于对收益率无序飙升的潜在反应,经济学家表示,美联储有几个选择。Bostjancic 表示,最直接的是,美联储可能会选择延长当前资产购买的期限。她表示,截至 12 月,当前计划的平均期限为 7.4 年,并补充说政策制定者可以开始购买 10 至 30 年期国债。Bostjancic 说,这样做实际上将是新的 “扭曲行动 ”的一部分,另一部分涉及出售短期国库券。</blockquote></p><p> If financial conditions tighten much more sharply and buying further out on the yield curve proves insufficient, Bostjancic and others say the Fed could attempt yield curve control.</p><p><blockquote>Bostjancic和其他人表示,如果金融状况进一步收紧,并且在收益率曲线上进一步买入被证明是不够的,美联储可能会尝试控制收益率曲线。</blockquote></p><p> YCC, undertaken by the Fed after World War II, the Bank of Japan in 2016, and the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2020, aims to control interest rates along some portion of the yield curve, targeting longer-term rates directly by imposing interest rate caps on particular maturities.As economists at the St. Louis Fed put it, because bond prices and yields are inversely related, this also implies a price floor for targeted maturities: if bond prices (yields) of targeted maturities remain above (below) the floor, the central bank does nothing. But if prices fall (rise) below (above) the floor, the central bank buys targeted-maturity bonds—increasing the demand and thus the price of those bonds.</p><p><blockquote>YCC由美联储在二战后、日本央行在2016年和澳大利亚储备银行在2020年实施,旨在控制收益率曲线的某些部分的利率,通过对特定期限施加利率上限来直接瞄准长期利率。正如圣路易斯联储的经济学家所说,由于债券价格和收益率成反比关系,这也意味着目标期限的价格下限:如果目标期限的债券价格(收益率)保持在下限之上(低于),央行什么也不做。但如果价格跌至(上涨)下限以下(高于),央行就会购买目标期限债券——增加需求,从而提高这些债券的价格。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting<blockquote>轻松赚钱、点阵图和美联储的困境: 重要会议的投资者指南</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEasy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting<blockquote>轻松赚钱、点阵图和美联储的困境: 重要会议的投资者指南</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-17 10:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter economic forecasts while trying to assure investors that it is still “not thinking about thinking about” lifting interest rates—and that it doesn’t need to.</p><p><blockquote>美联储本周采取了一个尴尬的平衡行动:它很可能会立即发布更乐观的经济预测,同时试图向投资者保证,美联储仍然 “没有考虑 ”加息,而且也不需要加息。</blockquote></p><p> More-optimistic estimates for gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation would typically prompt an acknowledgement that monetary policy would, in turn, begin to tighten. For a data-dependent Fed, the message that the economy is improving much faster than expected is at odds with the message that rates will remain near zero through 2023. How the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy arm, tries to square those conflicting dynamics will be in focus as investors take in new economic forecasts, the dot plot showing updated rate predictions, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.</p><p><blockquote>对国内生产总值、失业率和通货膨胀的更乐观的估计通常会促使人们承认货币政策将反过来开始收紧。对于依赖数据的美联储来说,经济改善速度远超预期的信息与利率将在 2023 年之前保持接近于零的信息不一致。随着投资者对新的经济预测、显示最新利率预测的点阵图以及主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)的新闻发布会的关注,美联储的政策机构联邦公开市场委员会将如何试图平衡这些相互矛盾的动态。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a fine line for them to walk,” says Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, as the bond market prices in more tightening amid improving economic data, Covid-19 vaccinations, and building inflation concerns, while the Fed reiterates its dovish stance. “How do you telegraph patience while conveying you won’t be behind the curve?”</p><p><blockquote>“牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)首席美国金融经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇(Kathy Bostjancic)说:”这对他们来说是一条微妙的路线,因为在经济数据改善、Covid-19 疫苗接种和通胀担忧加剧的情况下,债券市场价格进一步收紧,而美联储则重申了其鸽派立场。“你如何在传达你不会落后于时代的同时传达耐心?”</blockquote></p><p> The rate decision and updated materials will be released this Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern time, with Powell’s question-and-answer session following. Here is a run down of what Wall Street is watching.</p><p><blockquote>费率决定和更新材料将于本周三下午2点发布东部时间,鲍威尔将进行问答环节。以下是华尔街正在关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Updated economic forecasts:</b>In the December Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC projected 4.2% GDP growth for 2021 and 3.2% for 2022, bringing its inflation expectation to 2% by the end of 2023 and thus implying rates would begin to rise in 2024.</p><p><blockquote><b>更新的经济预测:</b>在 12 月份的经济预测摘要中,FOMC 预计 2021 年 GDP 增长率为 4.2%,2022 年为 3.2%,到 2023 年底通胀预期将达到 2%,从而意味着利率将在 2024 年开始上升。</blockquote></p><p> Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, thinks the FOMC will raise GDP forecasts for the next two years to about 6% and 4%, respectively. This should push the unemployment rate below the natural rate (the lowest unemployment rate an economy can sustain with inflation remaining stable) by the second half of 2022, she says, meaning the 2% inflation forecast would be pulled forward to the end of 2022—and the first rate hike therefore pulled forward to 2023. (In December, the Fed projected inflation at a 1.8% rate at the end of this year.)</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies首席经济学家Aneta Markowska认为,FOMC将把未来两年的GDP预测分别上调至6%和4%左右。她表示,到 2022 年下半年,这应该会将失业率推至自然率以下(在通胀保持稳定的情况下,一个经济体可以维持的最低失业率),这意味着 2% 的通胀预测将被提前至 2022 年底——因此,第一次加息被提前至 2023 年。(12月,美联储预计今年年底通胀率为1.8%。)</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials have expressed comfort in letting inflation run hotter than the 2% target. The question is by how much. Even though the FOMC will likely repeat that the recovery will slow after this year, new forecasts may show inflation of over 2% in both 2022 and 2023 alongside an unemployment rate of 3.5% by the end of 2023, thereby meeting the Fed’s criteria of inflation above 2% and “maximum employment,” says David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员对让通胀率高于 2% 的目标表示欣慰。问题是多少。摩根大通基金(J.P. Morgan Funds)首席全球策略师大卫-凯利(David Kelly)表示,尽管联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)可能会重申今年之后经济复苏将放缓,但新的预测可能会显示,2022 年和 2023 年的通胀率都将超过 2%,到 2023 年底失业率将达到 3.5%,从而满足美联储关于通胀率高于 2% 和 “最大就业 ”的标准。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists, however, say the Fed may focus more on a broader unemployment rate, known as the U-6 rate, that includes discouraged workers plus those who are working part time but would prefer to work full time, among others. That would give policy makers more breathing room given how much higher U-6 stands (11.1%) compared with the “official” U-3 rate (6.2%).</p><p><blockquote>然而,一些经济学家表示,美联储可能会更多地关注更广泛的失业率,即所谓的U-6失业率,其中包括沮丧的工人以及那些从事兼职工作但更愿意全职工作的工人等。鉴于 U-6 的比率(11.1%)远高于 “官方 ”U-3 的比率(6.2%),这将给政策制定者更多的喘息空间。</blockquote></p><p> Given the Fed’s new policy framework defines maximum employment as consisting of ‘broad-based and inclusive’ employment, investors looking to handicap the Fed’s next rate move should monitor the U-6 unemployment rate, says Bostjancic of Oxford Economics.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)的博斯特扬西奇(Bostjancic)表示,鉴于美联储的新政策框架将最大就业定义为 “基础广泛、包容性 ”就业,希望阻碍美联储下一次利率走势的投资者应关注 U-6 失业率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The dot plot:</b>In December, only one of 17 FOMC members submitting forecasts saw a rate hike by the end of 2022 and five saw a rate hike by the end of 2023. While some economists say Fed officials may be wary of lifting their dots, or appearing more hawkish and thereby adding fuel to a surge in long-term interest rates that has been under way, others say the Fed has to show some change in its rate outlook.</p><p><blockquote><b>点阵图:</b>12 月,提交预测的 17 名 FOMC 成员中只有 1 名成员预计到 2022 年底加息,5 名成员预计到 2023 年底加息。尽管一些经济学家表示,美联储官员可能对提高他们的点数或显得更加鹰派持谨慎态度,从而加剧正在进行的长期利率飙升,但其他人表示,美联储必须在其利率前景中表现出一些变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the magnitude of the likely forecast revisions, it would be hard to justify no change in the policy outlook,” says Markowska. “Not doing so would be inconsistent with data-dependency and would strongly suggest that the Fed is calendar dependent (which the Fed insists it isn’t).” At the same time, she says, the Fed hasn’t pushed back against the recent repricing of rate expectations, which is an implicit endorsement of what’s already priced in.</p><p><blockquote>“马尔科夫斯卡说:”鉴于预测可能修正的幅度,很难证明政策前景不改变是合理的。“不这样做将不符合数据依赖性,并将强烈表明美联储依赖于日历(美联储坚称它不是)。”她说,与此同时,美联储并没有反击最近对利率预期的重新定价,这是对已经定价的隐性认可。</blockquote></p><p> Bostjancic expects the median forecast to show at least one 0.25% rate hike during 2023, while Markowska thinks the median 2023 dot could rise to 0.375% (she notes only 4 members need to lift their dots—or signal a higher expected Fed funds rate by the end of 2023—to move the median rate projection. The bond market has priced in three quarter-point increases by the end of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>Bostjancic 预计预测中值将显示 2023 年至少加息一次 0.25%,而 Markowska 则认为 2023 年 dot 中值可能会升至 0.375%(她指出,只有 4 名成员需要提高 dot,或在 2023 年底前发出更高预期联邦基金利率的信号),即可移动利率预测中值。债券市场已预计到 2023 年底将加息三个四分之一点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Bond market action:</b>How the Treasury market reacts to the new Fed information will be at least as interesting as the information itself. Instead of the Fed potentially catching up to where the market already is in terms of rate expectations, Bostjancic says even a whiff of the Fed pulling forward rate hike expectations could spur the bond market to price in more tightening.</p><p><blockquote><b>债券市场行动:</b>国债市场对美联储新信息的反应至少与信息本身一样有趣。Bostjancic表示,即使美联储稍微提前加息预期,也可能刺激债券市场消化更多紧缩政策,而不是美联储在利率预期方面可能赶上市场已经处于的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Ian Lyngen, head of rates strategy at BMO Capital, says chances are low Powell will meaningfully alter his stance on the recent yield action, maintaining that as long as the move is driven by an improving economic outlook and inflation expectations, the repricing is for the right reasons. “Needless to say, higher yields are good until they are not and it’s just such an inflection point that represents the more significant policy risk for the Fed,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>BMO Capital 利率策略主管伊恩·林根 (Ian Lyngen) 表示,鲍威尔不太可能有意义地改变他对最近收益率行动的立场,他坚持认为,只要此举是由经济前景和通胀预期改善推动的,重新定价就是出于正确的原因。“他说:”不用说,更高的收益率是好事,直到它们不好,而这正是美联储面临的更大政策风险的拐点。</blockquote></p><p> Lyngen is watching the 1.64% level on the 10-year (it was last week’s yield peak as well as the highest for the benchmark since early-February 2020) and has a 1.75% target on the note.</p><p><blockquote>林根正在关注 10 年期国债 1.64% 的水平(这是上周的收益率峰值,也是该基准自 2020 年 2 月初以来的最高收益率),并将该票据的目标定为 1.75%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SLR exemption extension:</b>Potentially contributing to bond market action on Wednesday will be any signal around the Fed’s plan for a popular program launched last April, as pandemic-driven shutdowns cascaded.</p><p><blockquote><b>SLR豁免延期:</b>随着大流行病导致的停摆接踵而至,围绕美联储去年 4 月推出的一项广受欢迎的计划的任何信号都可能导致周三债券市场的走势。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is hoping for an extension of a temporary exemption of Treasuries and bank deposits at the Fed Reserve Banks from the banks’ Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which requires financial institutions hold a minimum ratio of at least 3% in capital measured against their total leverage exposure. The exemption is set to expire at the end of March.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街希望延长美联储银行对国债和银行存款的临时豁免期限,该期限要求金融机构持有至少 3% 的最低资本比率,以其总杠杆敞口衡量。该豁免将于三月底到期。</blockquote></p><p> The exemption’s fate has big implications. Over the past year, banks have increased their purchases of Treasuries by a large $854 billion, while bank reserves have ballooned by $1.8 trillion, Bostjancic notes. Economists say the lack of an extension could significantly lessen banks’ appetite for Treasuries, putting even more upward pressure on yields.</p><p><blockquote>豁免的命运影响重大。Bostjancic 指出,过去一年,银行增加了 8,540 亿美元的国债购买量,而银行准备金则激增了 1.8 万亿美元。经济学家表示,缺乏延期可能会大大降低银行对美国国债的兴趣,从而给收益率带来更大的上行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Further easing watch:</b>Wall Street generally doesn’t expect more easing unless yields stage a more disorderly surge and financial conditions meaningfully tighten. For now, the FOMC “is reasonably well positioned to stay the course for the time being,” Lyngen says, “even if such an outcome involves the risk of tacitly endorsing a further Treasury selloff at stage when investors are wary, if not worried.”</p><p><blockquote><b>进一步放松观察:</b>除非收益率出现更无序的飙升,金融状况有意义地收紧,否则华尔街普遍预计不会出现更多宽松政策。林根说,就目前而言,联邦公开市场委员会 “处于相当有利的位置,可以暂时坚持到底”,“即使这样的结果涉及在投资者谨慎甚至担忧的情况下,默许进一步抛售美国国债的风险”。</blockquote></p><p> As for potential responses to any disorderly jump in yields, economists say the Fed has a few options. Most immediately, the Fed could opt to lengthen the duration of its current asset purchases, says Bostjancic. As of December, the average maturity under the current program was 7.4 years, she says, adding that policy makers could start buying 10- to 30-year Treasuries. Doing so would effectively be one part of a new “operation twist,” with the other leg involving the sale of short-date Treasury bills, Bostjancic says.</p><p><blockquote>至于对收益率无序飙升的潜在反应,经济学家表示,美联储有几个选择。Bostjancic 表示,最直接的是,美联储可能会选择延长当前资产购买的期限。她表示,截至 12 月,当前计划的平均期限为 7.4 年,并补充说政策制定者可以开始购买 10 至 30 年期国债。Bostjancic 说,这样做实际上将是新的 “扭曲行动 ”的一部分,另一部分涉及出售短期国库券。</blockquote></p><p> If financial conditions tighten much more sharply and buying further out on the yield curve proves insufficient, Bostjancic and others say the Fed could attempt yield curve control.</p><p><blockquote>Bostjancic和其他人表示,如果金融状况进一步收紧,并且在收益率曲线上进一步买入被证明是不够的,美联储可能会尝试控制收益率曲线。</blockquote></p><p> YCC, undertaken by the Fed after World War II, the Bank of Japan in 2016, and the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2020, aims to control interest rates along some portion of the yield curve, targeting longer-term rates directly by imposing interest rate caps on particular maturities.As economists at the St. Louis Fed put it, because bond prices and yields are inversely related, this also implies a price floor for targeted maturities: if bond prices (yields) of targeted maturities remain above (below) the floor, the central bank does nothing. But if prices fall (rise) below (above) the floor, the central bank buys targeted-maturity bonds—increasing the demand and thus the price of those bonds.</p><p><blockquote>YCC由美联储在二战后、日本央行在2016年和澳大利亚储备银行在2020年实施,旨在控制收益率曲线的某些部分的利率,通过对特定期限施加利率上限来直接瞄准长期利率。正如圣路易斯联储的经济学家所说,由于债券价格和收益率成反比关系,这也意味着目标期限的价格下限:如果目标期限的债券价格(收益率)保持在下限之上(低于),央行什么也不做。但如果价格跌至(上涨)下限以下(高于),央行就会购买目标期限债券——增加需求,从而提高这些债券的价格。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/easy-money-the-dot-plot-and-the-feds-dilemma-an-investor-guide-to-a-key-meeting-51615905001?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/easy-money-the-dot-plot-and-the-feds-dilemma-an-investor-guide-to-a-key-meeting-51615905001?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103121082","content_text":"The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter economic forecasts while trying to assure investors that it is still “not thinking about thinking about” lifting interest rates—and that it doesn’t need to.\nMore-optimistic estimates for gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation would typically prompt an acknowledgement that monetary policy would, in turn, begin to tighten. For a data-dependent Fed, the message that the economy is improving much faster than expected is at odds with the message that rates will remain near zero through 2023. How the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy arm, tries to square those conflicting dynamics will be in focus as investors take in new economic forecasts, the dot plot showing updated rate predictions, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.\n“It’s a fine line for them to walk,” says Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, as the bond market prices in more tightening amid improving economic data, Covid-19 vaccinations, and building inflation concerns, while the Fed reiterates its dovish stance. “How do you telegraph patience while conveying you won’t be behind the curve?”\nThe rate decision and updated materials will be released this Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern time, with Powell’s question-and-answer session following. Here is a run down of what Wall Street is watching.\nUpdated economic forecasts:In the December Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC projected 4.2% GDP growth for 2021 and 3.2% for 2022, bringing its inflation expectation to 2% by the end of 2023 and thus implying rates would begin to rise in 2024.\nAneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, thinks the FOMC will raise GDP forecasts for the next two years to about 6% and 4%, respectively. This should push the unemployment rate below the natural rate (the lowest unemployment rate an economy can sustain with inflation remaining stable) by the second half of 2022, she says, meaning the 2% inflation forecast would be pulled forward to the end of 2022—and the first rate hike therefore pulled forward to 2023. (In December, the Fed projected inflation at a 1.8% rate at the end of this year.)\nFed officials have expressed comfort in letting inflation run hotter than the 2% target. The question is by how much. Even though the FOMC will likely repeat that the recovery will slow after this year, new forecasts may show inflation of over 2% in both 2022 and 2023 alongside an unemployment rate of 3.5% by the end of 2023, thereby meeting the Fed’s criteria of inflation above 2% and “maximum employment,” says David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds.\nSome economists, however, say the Fed may focus more on a broader unemployment rate, known as the U-6 rate, that includes discouraged workers plus those who are working part time but would prefer to work full time, among others. That would give policy makers more breathing room given how much higher U-6 stands (11.1%) compared with the “official” U-3 rate (6.2%).\nGiven the Fed’s new policy framework defines maximum employment as consisting of ‘broad-based and inclusive’ employment, investors looking to handicap the Fed’s next rate move should monitor the U-6 unemployment rate, says Bostjancic of Oxford Economics.\nThe dot plot:In December, only one of 17 FOMC members submitting forecasts saw a rate hike by the end of 2022 and five saw a rate hike by the end of 2023. While some economists say Fed officials may be wary of lifting their dots, or appearing more hawkish and thereby adding fuel to a surge in long-term interest rates that has been under way, others say the Fed has to show some change in its rate outlook.\n“Given the magnitude of the likely forecast revisions, it would be hard to justify no change in the policy outlook,” says Markowska. “Not doing so would be inconsistent with data-dependency and would strongly suggest that the Fed is calendar dependent (which the Fed insists it isn’t).” At the same time, she says, the Fed hasn’t pushed back against the recent repricing of rate expectations, which is an implicit endorsement of what’s already priced in.\nBostjancic expects the median forecast to show at least one 0.25% rate hike during 2023, while Markowska thinks the median 2023 dot could rise to 0.375% (she notes only 4 members need to lift their dots—or signal a higher expected Fed funds rate by the end of 2023—to move the median rate projection. The bond market has priced in three quarter-point increases by the end of 2023.\nBond market action:How the Treasury market reacts to the new Fed information will be at least as interesting as the information itself. Instead of the Fed potentially catching up to where the market already is in terms of rate expectations, Bostjancic says even a whiff of the Fed pulling forward rate hike expectations could spur the bond market to price in more tightening.\nIan Lyngen, head of rates strategy at BMO Capital, says chances are low Powell will meaningfully alter his stance on the recent yield action, maintaining that as long as the move is driven by an improving economic outlook and inflation expectations, the repricing is for the right reasons. “Needless to say, higher yields are good until they are not and it’s just such an inflection point that represents the more significant policy risk for the Fed,” he says.\nLyngen is watching the 1.64% level on the 10-year (it was last week’s yield peak as well as the highest for the benchmark since early-February 2020) and has a 1.75% target on the note.\nSLR exemption extension:Potentially contributing to bond market action on Wednesday will be any signal around the Fed’s plan for a popular program launched last April, as pandemic-driven shutdowns cascaded.\nWall Street is hoping for an extension of a temporary exemption of Treasuries and bank deposits at the Fed Reserve Banks from the banks’ Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which requires financial institutions hold a minimum ratio of at least 3% in capital measured against their total leverage exposure. The exemption is set to expire at the end of March.\nThe exemption’s fate has big implications. Over the past year, banks have increased their purchases of Treasuries by a large $854 billion, while bank reserves have ballooned by $1.8 trillion, Bostjancic notes. Economists say the lack of an extension could significantly lessen banks’ appetite for Treasuries, putting even more upward pressure on yields.\nFurther easing watch:Wall Street generally doesn’t expect more easing unless yields stage a more disorderly surge and financial conditions meaningfully tighten. For now, the FOMC “is reasonably well positioned to stay the course for the time being,” Lyngen says, “even if such an outcome involves the risk of tacitly endorsing a further Treasury selloff at stage when investors are wary, if not worried.”\nAs for potential responses to any disorderly jump in yields, economists say the Fed has a few options. Most immediately, the Fed could opt to lengthen the duration of its current asset purchases, says Bostjancic. As of December, the average maturity under the current program was 7.4 years, she says, adding that policy makers could start buying 10- to 30-year Treasuries. Doing so would effectively be one part of a new “operation twist,” with the other leg involving the sale of short-date Treasury bills, Bostjancic says.\nIf financial conditions tighten much more sharply and buying further out on the yield curve proves insufficient, Bostjancic and others say the Fed could attempt yield curve control.\nYCC, undertaken by the Fed after World War II, the Bank of Japan in 2016, and the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2020, aims to control interest rates along some portion of the yield curve, targeting longer-term rates directly by imposing interest rate caps on particular maturities.As economists at the St. Louis Fed put it, because bond prices and yields are inversely related, this also implies a price floor for targeted maturities: if bond prices (yields) of targeted maturities remain above (below) the floor, the central bank does nothing. But if prices fall (rise) below (above) the floor, the central bank buys targeted-maturity bonds—increasing the demand and thus the price of those bonds.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328633897,"gmtCreate":1615518317119,"gmtModify":1703490327233,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573824362072096","authorIdStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Too much money, will only flow into stocks. :)","listText":"Too much money, will only flow into stocks. :)","text":"Too much money, will only flow into stocks. :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328633897","repostId":"1134483939","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329575665,"gmtCreate":1615263978957,"gmtModify":1703486451394,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573824362072096","authorIdStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Correction is good and healthy. ","listText":"Correction is good and healthy. ","text":"Correction is good and healthy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329575665","repostId":"1177211195","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177211195","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615213425,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1177211195?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-08 22:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177211195","media":"CNN Business","summary":"London (CNN Business) - Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's","content":"<p><div> London (CNN Business) - Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's stock is off 11% from a recent peak in early February. And chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) has seen its ...</p><p><blockquote><div>伦敦(CNN Business)——苹果(AAPL)股价较1月份高点下跌超过15%。亚马逊的股价较 2 月初的近期峰值下跌了 11%。芯片制造商英伟达(NVDA)已经看到了它的……</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-08 22:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> London (CNN Business) - Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's stock is off 11% from a recent peak in early February. And chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) has seen its ...</p><p><blockquote><div>伦敦(CNN Business)——苹果(AAPL)股价较1月份高点下跌超过15%。亚马逊的股价较 2 月初的近期峰值下跌了 11%。芯片制造商英伟达(NVDA)已经看到了它的……</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","NFLX":"奈飞","AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软","FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF","GOOG":"谷歌","NVDA":"英伟达","AMZN":"亚马逊",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177211195","content_text":"London (CNN Business) - Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's stock is off 11% from a recent peak in early February. And chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) has seen its shares plunge nearly 19% since the middle of last month.What's happening: Tech companies are getting hammered by the recent sell-off in markets. Many stocks in the sector have entered a correction, logging declines of at least 10% from their recent peaks.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite may not be far behind. The index finished Friday more than 8% below the record high notched on Feb. 12. Futures point to another rough trading session on Monday.Breaking it down: Investors have become increasingly worried that the reopening of many big economies later this year will lead to a spike in prices as people rush out to restaurants and book vacations. That could put pressure on central banks like the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sooner than expected.Rock-bottom rates have been a boon for fast-growing tech companies. They've helped keep yields on government bonds extremely low, boosting interest in riskier investments like stocks that offer better returns.But now, bond yields are rising on inflation concerns. That could make assets like US Treasuries start to appear more enticing — triggering outflows from the tech names that have been so popular over the past 11 months.Jeroen Blokland, a portfolio manager at Robeco, thinks that as estimates for economic growth continue to improve, so-called \"value\" stocks in sectors like banking — which benefit from a healthy economy — may begin to get a second look.\"If you believe in this whole reopening and estimates of GDP growth ... that means growth is less scarce,\" he told me. \"[Then the] value sector has at least the possibility to play catch up.\"See here: The KBW Bank Index, which tracks top US lenders, is up more than 20% this year. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has almost wiped out all of its 2021 gains.Many strategists think the declines are healthy, and that share prices of many tech companies shot up too much, too fast.Continued selling may hinge on what we hear from central bankers in the coming days. The European Central Bank, which meets later this week, has stated clearly that it will take some action if it believes the rapid increase in bond yields will lead to tighter financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been less explicit.Blokland thinks that if the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note marches significantly higher this week, Powell may have no choice but to strongly assert that the Fed will act as necessary to ensure the economic recovery isn't affected by market turmoil.\"If we have another week like last week, [he has] to do something,\" Blokland said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"FB":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}