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NP_YT
NP_YT
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2022-02-07
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Roblox Stock: Don't Miss The Chance To Buy, With 1 Caveat<blockquote>Roblox股票:不要错过购买机会,但有1个警告</blockquote>
SummaryRoblox is the leading user-generated gaming metaverse platform with over 220M monthly active
Roblox Stock: Don't Miss The Chance To Buy, With 1 Caveat<blockquote>Roblox股票:不要错过购买机会,但有1个警告</blockquote>
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NP_YT
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2022-02-07
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非常抱歉,此主贴已删除
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NP_YT
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2022-02-06
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PayPal stock still offers 'four silver linings' after 'epic' selloff, says analyst<blockquote>分析师表示,在“史诗般”抛售之后,PayPal股票仍提供“四大一线希望”</blockquote>
Improving engagement trends are encouraging given strategic 'pivot,' Mizuho saysPayPal recently anno
PayPal stock still offers 'four silver linings' after 'epic' selloff, says analyst<blockquote>分析师表示,在“史诗般”抛售之后,PayPal股票仍提供“四大一线希望”</blockquote>
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NP_YT
NP_YT
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2022-02-05
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Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir:危险信号还是机遇?</blockquote>
SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account
Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir:危险信号还是机遇?</blockquote>
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NP_YT
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2022-02-02
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非常抱歉,此主贴已删除
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NP_YT
·
2022-01-31
OMy....
盘前 | 恐慌指数拉升!股指期货全线转跌
1月31日,美股三大股指期货全线转跌,截至发稿,道指期货跌0.76%;纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.16%;标普500指数期货跌0.57%。恐慌指数VIX涨5.57% ,现报29.2盘前行情奈飞盘前涨超
盘前 | 恐慌指数拉升!股指期货全线转跌
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NP_YT
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2022-01-30
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NP_YT
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2022-01-25
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Pre-Bell|Kohl’s Soared 27.3%; Unilever Surged 6.6%<blockquote>盘前|美国柯尔百货公司大涨27.3%;联合利华飙升6.6%</blockquote>
U.S. stock index futures slid on Monday after a bruising selloff last week, as geopolitical tensions
Pre-Bell|Kohl’s Soared 27.3%; Unilever Surged 6.6%<blockquote>盘前|美国柯尔百货公司大涨27.3%;联合利华飙升6.6%</blockquote>
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2022-01-23
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NP_YT
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2022-01-20
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,"listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633532736","repostId":"1190967225","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190967225","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644212210,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190967225?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-07 13:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Roblox Stock: Don't Miss The Chance To Buy, With 1 Caveat<blockquote>Roblox股票:不要错过购买机会,但有1个警告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190967225","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryRoblox is the leading user-generated gaming metaverse platform with over 220M monthly active ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Roblox is the leading user-generated gaming metaverse platform with over 220M monthly active users.</li><li>Roblox is still investing heavily to further its metaverse ambitions.</li><li>However, RBLX stock suffered from the tech correction. Roblox also suffered from revelations of child pornography and sexual grooming.</li><li>We discuss why we think Roblox stock is still a buy, but with a caveat.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/206190681150a5af30b3c692daeff67d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>tolgart/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Roblox是领先的用户生成游戏元宇宙平台,每月活跃用户超过2.2亿。</li><li>Roblox仍在大力投资以进一步实现其元宇宙雄心。</li><li>然而,RBLX股票遭受了技术调整。Roblox还遭受了儿童色情和性修饰的曝光。</li><li>我们讨论了为什么我们认为Roblox股票仍然值得买入,但有一个警告。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>托尔加特/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p>The gaming metaverse for younger gamers, Roblox Corporation (RBLX), recently saw its stock hit its all-time lows. It came after the stock staged a sharp momentum spike on its way to its all-time highs in November. But, we knew that the spike was not sustainable and needed to be digested eventually. The recent growth stocks correction was the perfect opportunity for sellers to burst its bubble and sent RBLX stock tumbling to its lowest levels since its listing in Mar'21.</p><p><blockquote>面向年轻游戏玩家的游戏元宇宙Roblox Corporation(RBLX)的股价最近触及历史低点。此前,该股在11月份创下历史新高的过程中大幅上涨。但是,我们知道这种激增是不可持续的,最终需要被消化。最近的成长型股票调整是卖家打破泡沫的绝佳机会,并导致RBLX股票跌至21年3月上市以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>The consensus price targets have also been revised downwards, reflecting the multiples compressions across growth stocks. Moreover, its China metaverse initiative has also hit a snag in January, as its partnership with Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) looks to have been paused.</p><p><blockquote>共识价格目标也被下调,反映出成长型股票的倍数压缩。此外,其China metaverse计划在1月份也遇到了障碍,因为其与腾讯控股(OTCPK:TCEHY)的合作似乎已暂停。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, it was also hit by a recent report from The Bear Cave, discussing issues relating to child pornography and sexual grooming in the platform. Even though Roblox attempted to address the matter speedily, the damage has been done.</p><p><blockquote>此外,它还受到了熊洞最近一份报告的打击,该报告讨论了平台中与儿童色情和性修饰有关的问题。尽管Roblox试图迅速解决此事,但损害已经造成。</blockquote></p><p>Nonetheless, we believe that the Roblox platform remains a critical entry point to the multi-trillion dollar metaverse opportunity. We have also covered its underlying thesis and key financial metrics in a previous article.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此,我们认为Roblox平台仍然是数万亿美元元宇宙机会的关键切入点。我们还在之前的文章中介绍了其基本论点和关键财务指标。</blockquote></p><p>We discuss why investors can now seize the opportunity from the recent pessimism and add RBLX stock.</p><p><blockquote>我们讨论为什么投资者现在可以从最近的悲观情绪中抓住机会并添加RBLX股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming Leadership and User-Generated Content is Roblox's Key Competitive Advantage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏领先地位和用户生成内容是Roblox的关键竞争优势</b></blockquote></p><p>VP of Metaverse Content at Meta Platforms (FB) Jason Rubin emphasized at a recent conference (edited):</p><p><blockquote>Meta Platforms(FB)元宇宙内容副总裁Jason Rubin在最近的一次会议上强调(编辑):</blockquote></p><p>Gaming is definitely a core part of the metaverse. Gaming created the game engine, right? For a long time, the game engine was the only major tool for real-time 3D graphics. Obviously, there was simulation and other things universities were doing, but for consumers, for the most part, it was gaming.<i>People like to play. We were born as children and we love to play. We never give it up</i>.<i>So, gaming becomes a great way to get people to spend a significant amount of time together</i>. And it gives people a way to build an identity system and do other things and invest in things together. And then I think adjacencies start forming because the people are there, and the possibilities are there. (VentureBeat)Roblox is arguably the largest user-generated gaming platform with over 220M monthly active users (MAU) (as of October 2021 according to R-Track) and almost 50M daily active users (DAU). While Epic Games has 194M users on PC, its December MAU peaked at 62M, way below Roblox's numbers. Therefore, Roblox is undoubtedly closer than Epic, its metaverse gaming arch-rival in reaching its proverbial target of 1B users.</p><p><blockquote>游戏绝对是元宇宙的核心部分。游戏创造了游戏引擎,对吗?在很长一段时间里,游戏引擎是实时3D图形的唯一主要工具。显然,大学在做模拟和其他事情,但对消费者来说,在很大程度上,这是游戏。<i>人们喜欢玩。我们生来就是孩子,我们喜欢玩耍。我们从不放弃</i>.<i>因此,游戏成为让人们花大量时间在一起的好方法</i>.它给了人们一种建立身份系统的方法,可以一起做其他事情,一起投资。然后我认为邻接开始形成,因为人在那里,可能性也在那里。(VentureBeat)Roblox可以说是最大的用户生成游戏平台,每月活跃用户(MAU)超过2.2亿(根据R-Track的数据截至2021年10月)和近5000万日活跃用户(DAU)。虽然Epic Games在PC上拥有1.94亿用户,但其12月份的MAU峰值为6200万,远低于Roblox的数字。因此,Roblox无疑比其元宇宙游戏主要竞争对手Epic更接近实现其众所周知的1B用户目标。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, Roblox continues to be at the top of the global mobile gaming charts by MAU, downloads, and revenue. App Annie data confirmed Roblox as the #3 gaming platform by MAU in the AMER region in 2021.Sensor Tower rated Roblox as #5 in overall downloads and #3 by App Store downloads in December 2021. Furthermore, it rated Roblox as #3 in overall revenue in the same month. Therefore, we wish to impress upon our readers that Roblox is a massive global platform that's far from falling over the cliff. It may have been listed for less than a year, but it has been building its gaming metaverse experiences over the last seventeen years. Roblox CEO David Baszucki, a.k.a. Builderman, emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>此外,Roblox在MAU、下载量和收入方面继续位居全球移动游戏排行榜榜首。App Annie数据证实Roblox是2021年美国MAU排名第三的游戏平台。2021年12月,Sensor Tower将Roblox评为整体下载量第五名,App Store下载量第三名。此外,它将Roblox评为同月总收入第三名。因此,我们希望给读者留下这样的印象:Roblox是一个巨大的全球平台,还远未跌落悬崖。它可能上市还不到一年,但在过去的十七年里,它一直在构建其游戏元宇宙体验。Roblox首席执行官David Baszucki(又名Builderman)强调:</blockquote></p><p>When Erik Cassel and I started Roblox, we envisioned a new category of human co-experience where people could play, learn, and work together in digital worlds.<i>Seventeen years later, Roblox is increasingly an essential part of people's lives.</i>With tens of millions of daily active users and billions of monthly engagement hours,<i>we are moving closer toward our mission of connecting a billion people on our platform</i>. (Roblox)Moreover, in January, Roblox shared a gamut of meaningful data points that showed that the company has been making tremendous progress in building its creator ecosystem. Readers should note that the crux of Roblox's incredible leadership is the strength of its UGC platform. We believe that UGC is foundational to experiences in the virtual worlds we would experience in the metaverse. Consequently, Roblox remains well ahead in this aspect, given its UGC leadership.</p><p><blockquote>当埃里克·卡塞尔和我创办Roblox时,我们设想了一种新的人类共同体验,人们可以在数字世界中一起玩耍、学习和工作。<i>十七年后,Roblox越来越成为人们生活中必不可少的一部分。</i>凭借数千万日活跃用户和数十亿月参与小时数,<i>我们正在朝着在我们的平台上连接10亿人的使命迈进</i>.(Roblox)此外,一月份,Roblox分享了一系列有意义的数据点,表明该公司在构建创作者生态系统方面取得了巨大进展。读者应该注意到,Roblox令人难以置信的领导力的关键在于其UGC平台的实力。我们相信UGC是我们在元宇宙体验虚拟世界的基础。因此,鉴于其UGC的领导地位,Roblox在这方面仍然遥遥领先。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Not only is its developer ecosystem highly robust, but it's also geographically diversified, across 170 countries.The largest number of developers come from the US, Brazil, Russia, the Philippines, and the UK. Therefore, Roblox has a global creator ecosystem serving experiences (as Roblox calls it) to a global community.</p><p><blockquote>它的开发者生态系统不仅非常强大,而且在地理上也很多样化,横跨170个国家。最多的开发者来自美国、巴西、俄罗斯、菲律宾和英国。因此,Roblox拥有一个全球创作者生态系统,为全球社区提供体验(作为Roblox评级it)。</blockquote></p><p>Notably, the company emphasized that its creator ecosystem has continued to grow rapidly over the past year. Roblox highlighted (edited):</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是,该公司强调,其创作者生态系统在过去一年中继续快速增长。Roblox突出显示(已编辑):</blockquote></p><p>This community has already become a driving force in pioneering a more inclusive metaverse, and<i>it's incredible to see a triple-digit percentage surge year over year</i>in the number of new creators that have used our free immersive creation engine Roblox Studio for the first time. The number of female creators using Roblox Studio for the first time grew 353% YoY, compared to 323% growth for new male creators. (Roblox)<b>Roblox is Investing Aggressively in the Metaverse</b></p><p><blockquote>这个社区已经成为开创更具包容性的元宇宙的驱动力,并且<i>令人难以置信的是,百分比同比增长三位数</i>首次使用我们的免费沉浸式创作引擎Roblox Studio的新创作者数量。首次使用Roblox Studio的女性创作者数量同比增长353%,而新男性创作者增长323%。(机器人)<b>Roblox正在积极投资元宇宙</b></blockquote></p><p>Even though Roblox has been building its metaversal experiences over the last seventeen years, it's not resting on its laurels. The company has continued to enhance its infrastructure and technology while attracting the most recognizable fashion, sports brands, and musicians to its platform. It included "Gucci (OTCPK:PPRUF), Nike (NKE), and Vans, who took their first steps into digital experiences with Roblox. Similarly, artists such as KSI, Tai Verdes, Twenty One Pilots, and Zara Larsson brought their performances and music directly to fans in immersive, interactive experiences." Therefore, these forays would allow Roblox tremendous opportunities to monetize beyond its customary gaming experiences.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Roblox在过去十七年里一直在构建其元宇宙体验,但它并没有固步自封。该公司不断增强其基础设施和技术,同时吸引最知名的时尚、运动品牌和音乐家加入其平台。其中包括“Gucci(OTCPK:PPRUF)、Nike(NKE)和Vans,他们通过Roblox迈出了数字体验的第一步。同样,KSI、Tai Verdes、Twenty One Pilots和Zara Larsson等艺术家将他们的表演和音乐直接带给粉丝。”因此,这些尝试将为Roblox带来超越其传统游戏体验的巨大货币化机会。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, the company has also been actively recruiting the best talents to bring on board. As a result, it will also be paying top-dollar. For example, Insider reported that Roblox added the "metaverse" term to all its open roles for hire. The top-tier employees can also command above $400K in base salary. Notably, these are all positions to help drive the company forward in its metaverse strategy; as CTO Daniel Sturman emphasized, "all roles are geared towards enabling the metaverse experiences."</p><p><blockquote>此外,该公司还一直在积极招聘最优秀的人才。因此,它也将支付高价。例如,Insider报道称,Roblox在其所有公开招聘的职位中添加了“元宇宙”一词。顶级员工的基本工资也可以超过40万美元。值得注意的是,这些职位都有助于推动公司推进元宇宙战略;正如首席技术官Daniel Sturman强调的那样,“所有角色都旨在实现元宇宙体验。”</blockquote></p><p>Therefore, we believe that Roblox remains solidly positioned to leverage its gaming metaverse leadership to invest further to cement its lead against its arch-rivals.</p><p><blockquote>因此,我们认为Roblox仍然处于有利地位,可以利用其游戏元宇宙的领导地位进一步投资,以巩固其对主要竞争对手的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p><b>RBLX Stock is a Buy Now with a Caveat</b></p><p><blockquote><b>RBLX股票值得立即买入,但有一个警告</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7022cfda4bb9128bb4c44fa69c517e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>RBLX stock price action (TradingView)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RBLX股价走势(TradingView)</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Readers can refer to the chart above that November's bull trap has been digested from the steep correction that brought it from its all-time highs to its all-time lows. But, we must highlight that the market must dissipate the momentum spike for RBLX stock to recover. Such spikes are never healthy for any stock, and we have been plenty of spikes from many growth stocks in November/December that has also been digested. As the market makers collapsed RBLX stock to its all-time lows, but it has also given the stock a chance to stage its next rally.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以参考上图,11月份的牛市陷阱已经从从历史高点到历史低点的急剧调整中被消化。但是,我们必须强调,市场必须消除RBLX股票复苏的势头。这种飙升对任何股票来说都不是健康的,我们在11月/12月经历了许多成长型股票的大量飙升,这些飙升也已被消化。随着做市商将RBLX股票跌至历史低点,但这也给了该股上演下一次反弹的机会。</blockquote></p><p>But, our caveat concerns the recent report by The Bear Cave. The details have been quite disturbing, even though it's not the first time such concerns have surfaced. We believe that management will do its best to eradicate such harmful content and creators over time. However, it's still important for investors to monitor these developments closely.</p><p><blockquote>但是,我们的警告是关于熊洞最近的报告。这些细节相当令人不安,尽管这不是这种担忧第一次浮出水面。我们相信,随着时间的推移,管理层将尽最大努力根除此类有害内容和创作者。然而,投资者密切关注这些事态发展仍然很重要。</blockquote></p><p>Consequently,<i>we reiterate our Buy rating on RBLX stock</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此,<i>我们重申对RBLX股票的买入评级</i>.</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roblox Stock: Don't Miss The Chance To Buy, With 1 Caveat<blockquote>Roblox股票:不要错过购买机会,但有1个警告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoblox Stock: Don't Miss The Chance To Buy, With 1 Caveat<blockquote>Roblox股票:不要错过购买机会,但有1个警告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-07 13:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Roblox is the leading user-generated gaming metaverse platform with over 220M monthly active users.</li><li>Roblox is still investing heavily to further its metaverse ambitions.</li><li>However, RBLX stock suffered from the tech correction. Roblox also suffered from revelations of child pornography and sexual grooming.</li><li>We discuss why we think Roblox stock is still a buy, but with a caveat.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/206190681150a5af30b3c692daeff67d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>tolgart/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Roblox是领先的用户生成游戏元宇宙平台,每月活跃用户超过2.2亿。</li><li>Roblox仍在大力投资以进一步实现其元宇宙雄心。</li><li>然而,RBLX股票遭受了技术调整。Roblox还遭受了儿童色情和性修饰的曝光。</li><li>我们讨论了为什么我们认为Roblox股票仍然值得买入,但有一个警告。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>托尔加特/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p>The gaming metaverse for younger gamers, Roblox Corporation (RBLX), recently saw its stock hit its all-time lows. It came after the stock staged a sharp momentum spike on its way to its all-time highs in November. But, we knew that the spike was not sustainable and needed to be digested eventually. The recent growth stocks correction was the perfect opportunity for sellers to burst its bubble and sent RBLX stock tumbling to its lowest levels since its listing in Mar'21.</p><p><blockquote>面向年轻游戏玩家的游戏元宇宙Roblox Corporation(RBLX)的股价最近触及历史低点。此前,该股在11月份创下历史新高的过程中大幅上涨。但是,我们知道这种激增是不可持续的,最终需要被消化。最近的成长型股票调整是卖家打破泡沫的绝佳机会,并导致RBLX股票跌至21年3月上市以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>The consensus price targets have also been revised downwards, reflecting the multiples compressions across growth stocks. Moreover, its China metaverse initiative has also hit a snag in January, as its partnership with Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) looks to have been paused.</p><p><blockquote>共识价格目标也被下调,反映出成长型股票的倍数压缩。此外,其China metaverse计划在1月份也遇到了障碍,因为其与腾讯控股(OTCPK:TCEHY)的合作似乎已暂停。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, it was also hit by a recent report from The Bear Cave, discussing issues relating to child pornography and sexual grooming in the platform. Even though Roblox attempted to address the matter speedily, the damage has been done.</p><p><blockquote>此外,它还受到了熊洞最近一份报告的打击,该报告讨论了平台中与儿童色情和性修饰有关的问题。尽管Roblox试图迅速解决此事,但损害已经造成。</blockquote></p><p>Nonetheless, we believe that the Roblox platform remains a critical entry point to the multi-trillion dollar metaverse opportunity. We have also covered its underlying thesis and key financial metrics in a previous article.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此,我们认为Roblox平台仍然是数万亿美元元宇宙机会的关键切入点。我们还在之前的文章中介绍了其基本论点和关键财务指标。</blockquote></p><p>We discuss why investors can now seize the opportunity from the recent pessimism and add RBLX stock.</p><p><blockquote>我们讨论为什么投资者现在可以从最近的悲观情绪中抓住机会并添加RBLX股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming Leadership and User-Generated Content is Roblox's Key Competitive Advantage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏领先地位和用户生成内容是Roblox的关键竞争优势</b></blockquote></p><p>VP of Metaverse Content at Meta Platforms (FB) Jason Rubin emphasized at a recent conference (edited):</p><p><blockquote>Meta Platforms(FB)元宇宙内容副总裁Jason Rubin在最近的一次会议上强调(编辑):</blockquote></p><p>Gaming is definitely a core part of the metaverse. Gaming created the game engine, right? For a long time, the game engine was the only major tool for real-time 3D graphics. Obviously, there was simulation and other things universities were doing, but for consumers, for the most part, it was gaming.<i>People like to play. We were born as children and we love to play. We never give it up</i>.<i>So, gaming becomes a great way to get people to spend a significant amount of time together</i>. And it gives people a way to build an identity system and do other things and invest in things together. And then I think adjacencies start forming because the people are there, and the possibilities are there. (VentureBeat)Roblox is arguably the largest user-generated gaming platform with over 220M monthly active users (MAU) (as of October 2021 according to R-Track) and almost 50M daily active users (DAU). While Epic Games has 194M users on PC, its December MAU peaked at 62M, way below Roblox's numbers. Therefore, Roblox is undoubtedly closer than Epic, its metaverse gaming arch-rival in reaching its proverbial target of 1B users.</p><p><blockquote>游戏绝对是元宇宙的核心部分。游戏创造了游戏引擎,对吗?在很长一段时间里,游戏引擎是实时3D图形的唯一主要工具。显然,大学在做模拟和其他事情,但对消费者来说,在很大程度上,这是游戏。<i>人们喜欢玩。我们生来就是孩子,我们喜欢玩耍。我们从不放弃</i>.<i>因此,游戏成为让人们花大量时间在一起的好方法</i>.它给了人们一种建立身份系统的方法,可以一起做其他事情,一起投资。然后我认为邻接开始形成,因为人在那里,可能性也在那里。(VentureBeat)Roblox可以说是最大的用户生成游戏平台,每月活跃用户(MAU)超过2.2亿(根据R-Track的数据截至2021年10月)和近5000万日活跃用户(DAU)。虽然Epic Games在PC上拥有1.94亿用户,但其12月份的MAU峰值为6200万,远低于Roblox的数字。因此,Roblox无疑比其元宇宙游戏主要竞争对手Epic更接近实现其众所周知的1B用户目标。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, Roblox continues to be at the top of the global mobile gaming charts by MAU, downloads, and revenue. App Annie data confirmed Roblox as the #3 gaming platform by MAU in the AMER region in 2021.Sensor Tower rated Roblox as #5 in overall downloads and #3 by App Store downloads in December 2021. Furthermore, it rated Roblox as #3 in overall revenue in the same month. Therefore, we wish to impress upon our readers that Roblox is a massive global platform that's far from falling over the cliff. It may have been listed for less than a year, but it has been building its gaming metaverse experiences over the last seventeen years. Roblox CEO David Baszucki, a.k.a. Builderman, emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>此外,Roblox在MAU、下载量和收入方面继续位居全球移动游戏排行榜榜首。App Annie数据证实Roblox是2021年美国MAU排名第三的游戏平台。2021年12月,Sensor Tower将Roblox评为整体下载量第五名,App Store下载量第三名。此外,它将Roblox评为同月总收入第三名。因此,我们希望给读者留下这样的印象:Roblox是一个巨大的全球平台,还远未跌落悬崖。它可能上市还不到一年,但在过去的十七年里,它一直在构建其游戏元宇宙体验。Roblox首席执行官David Baszucki(又名Builderman)强调:</blockquote></p><p>When Erik Cassel and I started Roblox, we envisioned a new category of human co-experience where people could play, learn, and work together in digital worlds.<i>Seventeen years later, Roblox is increasingly an essential part of people's lives.</i>With tens of millions of daily active users and billions of monthly engagement hours,<i>we are moving closer toward our mission of connecting a billion people on our platform</i>. (Roblox)Moreover, in January, Roblox shared a gamut of meaningful data points that showed that the company has been making tremendous progress in building its creator ecosystem. Readers should note that the crux of Roblox's incredible leadership is the strength of its UGC platform. We believe that UGC is foundational to experiences in the virtual worlds we would experience in the metaverse. Consequently, Roblox remains well ahead in this aspect, given its UGC leadership.</p><p><blockquote>当埃里克·卡塞尔和我创办Roblox时,我们设想了一种新的人类共同体验,人们可以在数字世界中一起玩耍、学习和工作。<i>十七年后,Roblox越来越成为人们生活中必不可少的一部分。</i>凭借数千万日活跃用户和数十亿月参与小时数,<i>我们正在朝着在我们的平台上连接10亿人的使命迈进</i>.(Roblox)此外,一月份,Roblox分享了一系列有意义的数据点,表明该公司在构建创作者生态系统方面取得了巨大进展。读者应该注意到,Roblox令人难以置信的领导力的关键在于其UGC平台的实力。我们相信UGC是我们在元宇宙体验虚拟世界的基础。因此,鉴于其UGC的领导地位,Roblox在这方面仍然遥遥领先。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Not only is its developer ecosystem highly robust, but it's also geographically diversified, across 170 countries.The largest number of developers come from the US, Brazil, Russia, the Philippines, and the UK. Therefore, Roblox has a global creator ecosystem serving experiences (as Roblox calls it) to a global community.</p><p><blockquote>它的开发者生态系统不仅非常强大,而且在地理上也很多样化,横跨170个国家。最多的开发者来自美国、巴西、俄罗斯、菲律宾和英国。因此,Roblox拥有一个全球创作者生态系统,为全球社区提供体验(作为Roblox评级it)。</blockquote></p><p>Notably, the company emphasized that its creator ecosystem has continued to grow rapidly over the past year. Roblox highlighted (edited):</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是,该公司强调,其创作者生态系统在过去一年中继续快速增长。Roblox突出显示(已编辑):</blockquote></p><p>This community has already become a driving force in pioneering a more inclusive metaverse, and<i>it's incredible to see a triple-digit percentage surge year over year</i>in the number of new creators that have used our free immersive creation engine Roblox Studio for the first time. The number of female creators using Roblox Studio for the first time grew 353% YoY, compared to 323% growth for new male creators. (Roblox)<b>Roblox is Investing Aggressively in the Metaverse</b></p><p><blockquote>这个社区已经成为开创更具包容性的元宇宙的驱动力,并且<i>令人难以置信的是,百分比同比增长三位数</i>首次使用我们的免费沉浸式创作引擎Roblox Studio的新创作者数量。首次使用Roblox Studio的女性创作者数量同比增长353%,而新男性创作者增长323%。(机器人)<b>Roblox正在积极投资元宇宙</b></blockquote></p><p>Even though Roblox has been building its metaversal experiences over the last seventeen years, it's not resting on its laurels. The company has continued to enhance its infrastructure and technology while attracting the most recognizable fashion, sports brands, and musicians to its platform. It included "Gucci (OTCPK:PPRUF), Nike (NKE), and Vans, who took their first steps into digital experiences with Roblox. Similarly, artists such as KSI, Tai Verdes, Twenty One Pilots, and Zara Larsson brought their performances and music directly to fans in immersive, interactive experiences." Therefore, these forays would allow Roblox tremendous opportunities to monetize beyond its customary gaming experiences.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Roblox在过去十七年里一直在构建其元宇宙体验,但它并没有固步自封。该公司不断增强其基础设施和技术,同时吸引最知名的时尚、运动品牌和音乐家加入其平台。其中包括“Gucci(OTCPK:PPRUF)、Nike(NKE)和Vans,他们通过Roblox迈出了数字体验的第一步。同样,KSI、Tai Verdes、Twenty One Pilots和Zara Larsson等艺术家将他们的表演和音乐直接带给粉丝。”因此,这些尝试将为Roblox带来超越其传统游戏体验的巨大货币化机会。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, the company has also been actively recruiting the best talents to bring on board. As a result, it will also be paying top-dollar. For example, Insider reported that Roblox added the "metaverse" term to all its open roles for hire. The top-tier employees can also command above $400K in base salary. Notably, these are all positions to help drive the company forward in its metaverse strategy; as CTO Daniel Sturman emphasized, "all roles are geared towards enabling the metaverse experiences."</p><p><blockquote>此外,该公司还一直在积极招聘最优秀的人才。因此,它也将支付高价。例如,Insider报道称,Roblox在其所有公开招聘的职位中添加了“元宇宙”一词。顶级员工的基本工资也可以超过40万美元。值得注意的是,这些职位都有助于推动公司推进元宇宙战略;正如首席技术官Daniel Sturman强调的那样,“所有角色都旨在实现元宇宙体验。”</blockquote></p><p>Therefore, we believe that Roblox remains solidly positioned to leverage its gaming metaverse leadership to invest further to cement its lead against its arch-rivals.</p><p><blockquote>因此,我们认为Roblox仍然处于有利地位,可以利用其游戏元宇宙的领导地位进一步投资,以巩固其对主要竞争对手的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p><b>RBLX Stock is a Buy Now with a Caveat</b></p><p><blockquote><b>RBLX股票值得立即买入,但有一个警告</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7022cfda4bb9128bb4c44fa69c517e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>RBLX stock price action (TradingView)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RBLX股价走势(TradingView)</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Readers can refer to the chart above that November's bull trap has been digested from the steep correction that brought it from its all-time highs to its all-time lows. But, we must highlight that the market must dissipate the momentum spike for RBLX stock to recover. Such spikes are never healthy for any stock, and we have been plenty of spikes from many growth stocks in November/December that has also been digested. As the market makers collapsed RBLX stock to its all-time lows, but it has also given the stock a chance to stage its next rally.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以参考上图,11月份的牛市陷阱已经从从历史高点到历史低点的急剧调整中被消化。但是,我们必须强调,市场必须消除RBLX股票复苏的势头。这种飙升对任何股票来说都不是健康的,我们在11月/12月经历了许多成长型股票的大量飙升,这些飙升也已被消化。随着做市商将RBLX股票跌至历史低点,但这也给了该股上演下一次反弹的机会。</blockquote></p><p>But, our caveat concerns the recent report by The Bear Cave. The details have been quite disturbing, even though it's not the first time such concerns have surfaced. We believe that management will do its best to eradicate such harmful content and creators over time. However, it's still important for investors to monitor these developments closely.</p><p><blockquote>但是,我们的警告是关于熊洞最近的报告。这些细节相当令人不安,尽管这不是这种担忧第一次浮出水面。我们相信,随着时间的推移,管理层将尽最大努力根除此类有害内容和创作者。然而,投资者密切关注这些事态发展仍然很重要。</blockquote></p><p>Consequently,<i>we reiterate our Buy rating on RBLX stock</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此,<i>我们重申对RBLX股票的买入评级</i>.</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484696-roblox-rblx-stock-dont-miss-chance-buy-caveat\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484696-roblox-rblx-stock-dont-miss-chance-buy-caveat","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190967225","content_text":"SummaryRoblox is the leading user-generated gaming metaverse platform with over 220M monthly active users.Roblox is still investing heavily to further its metaverse ambitions.However, RBLX stock suffered from the tech correction. Roblox also suffered from revelations of child pornography and sexual grooming.We discuss why we think Roblox stock is still a buy, but with a caveat.tolgart/E+ via Getty ImagesInvestment ThesisThe gaming metaverse for younger gamers, Roblox Corporation (RBLX), recently saw its stock hit its all-time lows. It came after the stock staged a sharp momentum spike on its way to its all-time highs in November. But, we knew that the spike was not sustainable and needed to be digested eventually. The recent growth stocks correction was the perfect opportunity for sellers to burst its bubble and sent RBLX stock tumbling to its lowest levels since its listing in Mar'21.The consensus price targets have also been revised downwards, reflecting the multiples compressions across growth stocks. Moreover, its China metaverse initiative has also hit a snag in January, as its partnership with Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) looks to have been paused.Moreover, it was also hit by a recent report from The Bear Cave, discussing issues relating to child pornography and sexual grooming in the platform. Even though Roblox attempted to address the matter speedily, the damage has been done.Nonetheless, we believe that the Roblox platform remains a critical entry point to the multi-trillion dollar metaverse opportunity. We have also covered its underlying thesis and key financial metrics in a previous article.We discuss why investors can now seize the opportunity from the recent pessimism and add RBLX stock.Gaming Leadership and User-Generated Content is Roblox's Key Competitive AdvantageVP of Metaverse Content at Meta Platforms (FB) Jason Rubin emphasized at a recent conference (edited):Gaming is definitely a core part of the metaverse. Gaming created the game engine, right? For a long time, the game engine was the only major tool for real-time 3D graphics. Obviously, there was simulation and other things universities were doing, but for consumers, for the most part, it was gaming.People like to play. We were born as children and we love to play. We never give it up.So, gaming becomes a great way to get people to spend a significant amount of time together. And it gives people a way to build an identity system and do other things and invest in things together. And then I think adjacencies start forming because the people are there, and the possibilities are there. (VentureBeat)Roblox is arguably the largest user-generated gaming platform with over 220M monthly active users (MAU) (as of October 2021 according to R-Track) and almost 50M daily active users (DAU). While Epic Games has 194M users on PC, its December MAU peaked at 62M, way below Roblox's numbers. Therefore, Roblox is undoubtedly closer than Epic, its metaverse gaming arch-rival in reaching its proverbial target of 1B users.Moreover, Roblox continues to be at the top of the global mobile gaming charts by MAU, downloads, and revenue. App Annie data confirmed Roblox as the #3 gaming platform by MAU in the AMER region in 2021.Sensor Tower rated Roblox as #5 in overall downloads and #3 by App Store downloads in December 2021. Furthermore, it rated Roblox as #3 in overall revenue in the same month. Therefore, we wish to impress upon our readers that Roblox is a massive global platform that's far from falling over the cliff. It may have been listed for less than a year, but it has been building its gaming metaverse experiences over the last seventeen years. Roblox CEO David Baszucki, a.k.a. Builderman, emphasized:When Erik Cassel and I started Roblox, we envisioned a new category of human co-experience where people could play, learn, and work together in digital worlds.Seventeen years later, Roblox is increasingly an essential part of people's lives.With tens of millions of daily active users and billions of monthly engagement hours,we are moving closer toward our mission of connecting a billion people on our platform. (Roblox)Moreover, in January, Roblox shared a gamut of meaningful data points that showed that the company has been making tremendous progress in building its creator ecosystem. Readers should note that the crux of Roblox's incredible leadership is the strength of its UGC platform. We believe that UGC is foundational to experiences in the virtual worlds we would experience in the metaverse. Consequently, Roblox remains well ahead in this aspect, given its UGC leadership.Not only is its developer ecosystem highly robust, but it's also geographically diversified, across 170 countries.The largest number of developers come from the US, Brazil, Russia, the Philippines, and the UK. Therefore, Roblox has a global creator ecosystem serving experiences (as Roblox calls it) to a global community.Notably, the company emphasized that its creator ecosystem has continued to grow rapidly over the past year. Roblox highlighted (edited):This community has already become a driving force in pioneering a more inclusive metaverse, andit's incredible to see a triple-digit percentage surge year over yearin the number of new creators that have used our free immersive creation engine Roblox Studio for the first time. The number of female creators using Roblox Studio for the first time grew 353% YoY, compared to 323% growth for new male creators. (Roblox)Roblox is Investing Aggressively in the MetaverseEven though Roblox has been building its metaversal experiences over the last seventeen years, it's not resting on its laurels. The company has continued to enhance its infrastructure and technology while attracting the most recognizable fashion, sports brands, and musicians to its platform. It included \"Gucci (OTCPK:PPRUF), Nike (NKE), and Vans, who took their first steps into digital experiences with Roblox. Similarly, artists such as KSI, Tai Verdes, Twenty One Pilots, and Zara Larsson brought their performances and music directly to fans in immersive, interactive experiences.\" Therefore, these forays would allow Roblox tremendous opportunities to monetize beyond its customary gaming experiences.Moreover, the company has also been actively recruiting the best talents to bring on board. As a result, it will also be paying top-dollar. For example, Insider reported that Roblox added the \"metaverse\" term to all its open roles for hire. The top-tier employees can also command above $400K in base salary. Notably, these are all positions to help drive the company forward in its metaverse strategy; as CTO Daniel Sturman emphasized, \"all roles are geared towards enabling the metaverse experiences.\"Therefore, we believe that Roblox remains solidly positioned to leverage its gaming metaverse leadership to invest further to cement its lead against its arch-rivals.RBLX Stock is a Buy Now with a CaveatRBLX stock price action (TradingView)Readers can refer to the chart above that November's bull trap has been digested from the steep correction that brought it from its all-time highs to its all-time lows. But, we must highlight that the market must dissipate the momentum spike for RBLX stock to recover. Such spikes are never healthy for any stock, and we have been plenty of spikes from many growth stocks in November/December that has also been digested. As the market makers collapsed RBLX stock to its all-time lows, but it has also given the stock a chance to stage its next rally.But, our caveat concerns the recent report by The Bear Cave. The details have been quite disturbing, even though it's not the first time such concerns have surfaced. We believe that management will do its best to eradicate such harmful content and creators over time. However, it's still important for investors to monitor these developments closely.Consequently,we reiterate our Buy rating on RBLX stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RBLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633532608,"gmtCreate":1644214309333,"gmtModify":1644214309565,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572043809285615","idStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633532608","repostId":"1139709004","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633237574,"gmtCreate":1644110275593,"gmtModify":1644110275866,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572043809285615","idStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633237574","repostId":"2209524346","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2209524346","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644028119,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2209524346?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-05 10:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal stock still offers 'four silver linings' after 'epic' selloff, says analyst<blockquote>分析师表示,在“史诗般”抛售之后,PayPal股票仍提供“四大一线希望”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209524346","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Improving engagement trends are encouraging given strategic 'pivot,' Mizuho saysPayPal recently anno","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Improving engagement trends are encouraging given strategic 'pivot,' Mizuho says</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>瑞穗表示,鉴于战略“支点”,参与度趋势的改善令人鼓舞</body></html></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e30cb2b6a29715f9c2a44811c5aa446\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>PayPal recently announced a new strategy on user-growth that prioritizes “higher-value” accounts over less engaged ones.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PayPal最近宣布了一项新的用户增长战略,优先考虑“高价值”账户,而不是参与度较低的账户。</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shares of PayPal Holdings Inc. have been pummeled in recent days after the e-commerce company gave a disappointing forecast and announced a change in its business strategy, but one analyst still sees shine in PayPal's story.</p><p><blockquote>在这家电子商务公司PayPal控股公司给出了令人失望的预测并宣布改变其业务战略后,该公司的股价最近几天遭受重创,但一位分析师仍然认为PayPal的故事有亮点。</blockquote></p><p>Mizuho's Dan Dolev wrote Friday that PayPal's (PYPL) narrative has "four silver linings" despite the "epic de-rating" of PayPal's stock. The shares fell 22.9% on the week of PayPal's holiday-quarter earnings report, and they're off nearly 60% from the company's all-time closing high of $308.53 established in July 2021.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗银行(Mizuho)的丹·多列夫(Dan Dolev)周五写道,尽管PayPal股票遭到“史诗般的降级”,但PayPal(PYPL)的叙述仍有“四大一线希望”。PayPal发布假日季度收益报告当周,该股下跌22.9%,较该公司2021年7月创下的历史收盘高点308.53美元下跌近60%。</blockquote></p><p>Dolev was encouraged that PayPal's total payment volume per user appears to have bottomed in the third-quarter as fourth-quarter trends improved. The metric captured the value of transactions going through PayPal's platform, measured on a per-user basis while excluding merchant accounts.</p><p><blockquote>Dolev感到鼓舞的是,随着第四季度趋势的改善,PayPal的每用户总支付量似乎已在第三季度触底。该指标捕捉了通过PayPal平台进行的交易价值,以每个用户为基础进行衡量,但不包括商家账户。</blockquote></p><p>"Our analysis shows that PYPL's share price (lagged by one quarter) closely tracks incremental TPV per user," he wrote, noting about $70 in TPV per user in the fourth quarter, up from $68 in the third. "If this metric continues to improve, the stock is likely to follow, in our view."</p><p><blockquote>“我们的分析表明,PYPL的股价(滞后一个季度)密切跟踪每用户TPV的增量,”他写道,并指出第四季度每用户TPV约为70美元,高于第三季度的68美元。“我们认为,如果这一指标继续改善,该股可能会随之改善。”</blockquote></p><p>Further, Dolev saw improvement in PayPal's take rate when excluding <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> volumes. The ex-eBay take rate, which represents the cut that the company gets of each transaction, rose to 2.03% in the fourth quarter, up from 1.98% in the third quarter and 1.95% in the second quarter, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>此外,多列夫发现PayPal的录取率在排除<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>卷。他指出,eBay前提成率(代表公司从每笔交易中获得的提成)在第四季度升至2.03%,高于第三季度的1.98%和第二季度的1.95%。</blockquote></p><p>Incremental growth in TPV, when excluding eBay and peer-to-peer volumes, improved as well from the third quarter to hit $55 billion, Dolev noted. While that number came in below the second-quarter high, it was better than PayPal's performance in each quarter of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>Dolev指出,如果不包括eBay和点对点交易量,TPV的增量增长也较第三季度有所改善,达到550亿美元。虽然这一数字低于第二季度的高点,但好于PayPal 2020年每个季度的表现。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, PayPal showed more incremental transactions per active account in the fourth quarter than it did in the third quarter, according to Dolev.</p><p><blockquote>最后,多列夫表示,PayPal第四季度每个活跃账户的增量交易比第三季度更多。</blockquote></p><p>"Better engagement trends bode well for PYPL, especially given the company's pivot on user strategy," he wrote. "Since PYPL is weighting its focus more towards customer retention and improving engagement of existing customers, this metric is becoming increasingly important."</p><p><blockquote>“更好的参与趋势对PYPL来说是个好兆头,特别是考虑到该公司专注于用户战略,”他写道。“由于PYPL更加注重客户保留和提高现有客户的参与度,因此这一指标变得越来越重要。”</blockquote></p><p>Dolev kept a buy rating on PayPal's shares, though he reduced his price target to $175 from $200 in Friday's note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>多列夫维持对PayPal股票的买入评级,不过他在周五给客户的报告中将目标价从200美元下调至175美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal stock still offers 'four silver linings' after 'epic' selloff, says analyst<blockquote>分析师表示,在“史诗般”抛售之后,PayPal股票仍提供“四大一线希望”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal stock still offers 'four silver linings' after 'epic' selloff, says analyst<blockquote>分析师表示,在“史诗般”抛售之后,PayPal股票仍提供“四大一线希望”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-05 10:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Improving engagement trends are encouraging given strategic 'pivot,' Mizuho says</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>瑞穗表示,鉴于战略“支点”,参与度趋势的改善令人鼓舞</body></html></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e30cb2b6a29715f9c2a44811c5aa446\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>PayPal recently announced a new strategy on user-growth that prioritizes “higher-value” accounts over less engaged ones.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PayPal最近宣布了一项新的用户增长战略,优先考虑“高价值”账户,而不是参与度较低的账户。</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shares of PayPal Holdings Inc. have been pummeled in recent days after the e-commerce company gave a disappointing forecast and announced a change in its business strategy, but one analyst still sees shine in PayPal's story.</p><p><blockquote>在这家电子商务公司PayPal控股公司给出了令人失望的预测并宣布改变其业务战略后,该公司的股价最近几天遭受重创,但一位分析师仍然认为PayPal的故事有亮点。</blockquote></p><p>Mizuho's Dan Dolev wrote Friday that PayPal's (PYPL) narrative has "four silver linings" despite the "epic de-rating" of PayPal's stock. The shares fell 22.9% on the week of PayPal's holiday-quarter earnings report, and they're off nearly 60% from the company's all-time closing high of $308.53 established in July 2021.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗银行(Mizuho)的丹·多列夫(Dan Dolev)周五写道,尽管PayPal股票遭到“史诗般的降级”,但PayPal(PYPL)的叙述仍有“四大一线希望”。PayPal发布假日季度收益报告当周,该股下跌22.9%,较该公司2021年7月创下的历史收盘高点308.53美元下跌近60%。</blockquote></p><p>Dolev was encouraged that PayPal's total payment volume per user appears to have bottomed in the third-quarter as fourth-quarter trends improved. The metric captured the value of transactions going through PayPal's platform, measured on a per-user basis while excluding merchant accounts.</p><p><blockquote>Dolev感到鼓舞的是,随着第四季度趋势的改善,PayPal的每用户总支付量似乎已在第三季度触底。该指标捕捉了通过PayPal平台进行的交易价值,以每个用户为基础进行衡量,但不包括商家账户。</blockquote></p><p>"Our analysis shows that PYPL's share price (lagged by one quarter) closely tracks incremental TPV per user," he wrote, noting about $70 in TPV per user in the fourth quarter, up from $68 in the third. "If this metric continues to improve, the stock is likely to follow, in our view."</p><p><blockquote>“我们的分析表明,PYPL的股价(滞后一个季度)密切跟踪每用户TPV的增量,”他写道,并指出第四季度每用户TPV约为70美元,高于第三季度的68美元。“我们认为,如果这一指标继续改善,该股可能会随之改善。”</blockquote></p><p>Further, Dolev saw improvement in PayPal's take rate when excluding <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> volumes. The ex-eBay take rate, which represents the cut that the company gets of each transaction, rose to 2.03% in the fourth quarter, up from 1.98% in the third quarter and 1.95% in the second quarter, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>此外,多列夫发现PayPal的录取率在排除<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>卷。他指出,eBay前提成率(代表公司从每笔交易中获得的提成)在第四季度升至2.03%,高于第三季度的1.98%和第二季度的1.95%。</blockquote></p><p>Incremental growth in TPV, when excluding eBay and peer-to-peer volumes, improved as well from the third quarter to hit $55 billion, Dolev noted. While that number came in below the second-quarter high, it was better than PayPal's performance in each quarter of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>Dolev指出,如果不包括eBay和点对点交易量,TPV的增量增长也较第三季度有所改善,达到550亿美元。虽然这一数字低于第二季度的高点,但好于PayPal 2020年每个季度的表现。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, PayPal showed more incremental transactions per active account in the fourth quarter than it did in the third quarter, according to Dolev.</p><p><blockquote>最后,多列夫表示,PayPal第四季度每个活跃账户的增量交易比第三季度更多。</blockquote></p><p>"Better engagement trends bode well for PYPL, especially given the company's pivot on user strategy," he wrote. "Since PYPL is weighting its focus more towards customer retention and improving engagement of existing customers, this metric is becoming increasingly important."</p><p><blockquote>“更好的参与趋势对PYPL来说是个好兆头,特别是考虑到该公司专注于用户战略,”他写道。“由于PYPL更加注重客户保留和提高现有客户的参与度,因此这一指标变得越来越重要。”</blockquote></p><p>Dolev kept a buy rating on PayPal's shares, though he reduced his price target to $175 from $200 in Friday's note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>多列夫维持对PayPal股票的买入评级,不过他在周五给客户的报告中将目标价从200美元下调至175美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/paypal-stock-still-offers-four-silver-linings-after-epic-selloff-says-analyst-11643980171?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","PYPL":"PayPal","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/paypal-stock-still-offers-four-silver-linings-after-epic-selloff-says-analyst-11643980171?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209524346","content_text":"Improving engagement trends are encouraging given strategic 'pivot,' Mizuho saysPayPal recently announced a new strategy on user-growth that prioritizes “higher-value” accounts over less engaged ones.Shares of PayPal Holdings Inc. have been pummeled in recent days after the e-commerce company gave a disappointing forecast and announced a change in its business strategy, but one analyst still sees shine in PayPal's story.Mizuho's Dan Dolev wrote Friday that PayPal's (PYPL) narrative has \"four silver linings\" despite the \"epic de-rating\" of PayPal's stock. The shares fell 22.9% on the week of PayPal's holiday-quarter earnings report, and they're off nearly 60% from the company's all-time closing high of $308.53 established in July 2021.Dolev was encouraged that PayPal's total payment volume per user appears to have bottomed in the third-quarter as fourth-quarter trends improved. The metric captured the value of transactions going through PayPal's platform, measured on a per-user basis while excluding merchant accounts.\"Our analysis shows that PYPL's share price (lagged by one quarter) closely tracks incremental TPV per user,\" he wrote, noting about $70 in TPV per user in the fourth quarter, up from $68 in the third. \"If this metric continues to improve, the stock is likely to follow, in our view.\"Further, Dolev saw improvement in PayPal's take rate when excluding eBay volumes. The ex-eBay take rate, which represents the cut that the company gets of each transaction, rose to 2.03% in the fourth quarter, up from 1.98% in the third quarter and 1.95% in the second quarter, he noted.Incremental growth in TPV, when excluding eBay and peer-to-peer volumes, improved as well from the third quarter to hit $55 billion, Dolev noted. While that number came in below the second-quarter high, it was better than PayPal's performance in each quarter of 2020.Finally, PayPal showed more incremental transactions per active account in the fourth quarter than it did in the third quarter, according to Dolev.\"Better engagement trends bode well for PYPL, especially given the company's pivot on user strategy,\" he wrote. \"Since PYPL is weighting its focus more towards customer retention and improving engagement of existing customers, this metric is becoming increasingly important.\"Dolev kept a buy rating on PayPal's shares, though he reduced his price target to $175 from $200 in Friday's note to clients.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633203693,"gmtCreate":1644062273346,"gmtModify":1644062273582,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572043809285615","idStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633203693","repostId":"1196927717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196927717","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644033090,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196927717?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-05 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir:危险信号还是机遇?</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196927717","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至2021年第三季度,Palantir总共只有203名客户,而其中只有20名客户占总收入的58%。</li><li>与2020年相比,2021年前三季度Palantir核心客户群的年化收入增长放缓至20%。</li><li>2021年,Palantir从根本上改变了其上市战略。该公司目前正在利用其现金积极投资同意购买Palantir软件的其他公司(被投资方)。</li><li>管理层继续指导到十年中期销售额增长30%。然而,Palantir的三阶段业务模式暗示,不包括其被投资方的销售额,销售额呈下降趋势。</li><li>Palantir提供了非凡的长期增长潜力,这应该使其成为所有成长型投资者的观察名单。投资案例建立在机会和危险信号之间的支点上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>agawa288/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>我给予Palantir(纽约证券交易所股票代码:PLTR)中性风险/回报评级,因为长期增长机会被近期危险信号所抵消。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而,一些值得注意的危险信号值得谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升(误差幅度有限)。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险/回报评级:中性</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><blockquote>与企业软件领域的同行相比,Palantir在获取和扩大客户群方面拥有不同寻常的商业模式。该公司根据三个发展阶段或群体对其客户进行分类:(1)收购、(2)扩张和(3)规模。虽然它们是适用于所有企业的通用术语,但由于该公司对待客户的方式,它们在Palantir的情况下是独一无二的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户详细信息</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir将收购群体中的客户定义为截至年底收入低于100,000美元且对Palantir无利可图的客户。扩展群组的特点是一个销售额超过100,000美元但仍未盈利的客户。最后,规模群体被定义为在这一年中为Palantir创造了超过100,000美元收入且具有盈利关系的客户。</blockquote></p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p><blockquote>下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。第一个表显示了Palantir在2020年底分类的每个客户群体的2020年销售额(2020年收入)。在2021年年化栏中,您会发现这些2020年客户群到2021年第三季度的年化销售额。在第二组表格中,我汇编了过去12个月Palantir最大客户的关键详细信息,以及与2021年Palantir新客户相关的关键详细信息,这些客户尚未分配到某个群组。队列分类在每年年底进行。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p><blockquote>为了便于比较,我对相关信息进行了颜色编码。Palantir的主要现实之一是其集中的客户群,以蓝色突出显示。Palantir只有203个客户,前20名占销售额的58%。</blockquote></p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义,Palantir最大的客户属于规模群体。到2021年前三季度,规模队列(2020年底分类)以20%的年化速度增长。鉴于该群体占Palantir收入的86%,如果没有其他两个群体的爆炸性增长或规模群体的实质性加速,将销售增长率大幅提高到20%以上将具有挑战性。应该指出的是,管理层指导到十年中期年销售额增长30%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p><blockquote>上表中以黄色突出显示了2020年底收购和扩展队列。在年终Palantir报告发布之前,2021年的新客户不会被分配到一个队列中。我用黄色突出显示了相关的2021年新客户数据,以便于与2020年获取和扩展客户群体进行比较。我认为2021年新客户销售业绩(不包括对被投资方的销售)是可持续的核心增长率。被投资方的客户获取策略非常不寻常,具有极高的资本风险,从而引入声誉风险,从而引入品牌风险。</blockquote></p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>请注意,这里的被投资方是指Palantir使用Palantir的软件购买其股票以换取被投资方的客户。这意味着,来自被投资方的收入是Palantir投资这些客户股票的回报。在这方面,这些不是公平交易。我认为,不包括对被投资方的销售的新客户数量是确定纯粹基于市场的新客户增长率的重要数据点。</blockquote></p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>与2021年规模群体的年化增长率20%类似,到2021年第三季度,新客户销售额的年化增长率为22%,而2020年收购和扩张群体的销售额为2060万美元。虽然这不是新客户销售增长的完美比较,但这是一个公平的估计。因此,Palantir的基本销售增长率似乎倾向于接近20%,而不是该公司到十年中期30%的销售增长指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p><blockquote><b>被投资方</b></blockquote></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p><blockquote>退一步回顾Palantir对被投资方的投资非常重要,因为这是一种非常不寻常的获取客户的上市策略。上述数字表明收入增长趋势为20%,这让Palantir使用资产负债表现金为新客户提供资金的方式有了新的认识。下表摘自Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q。第一个表格列出了截至2021年第三季度末Palantir资助的公司。第二个表格显示了Palantir对尚未获得资金的新公司的投资承诺。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>我对上述每家公司都进行了粗略的回顾。共同的主题是,它们都是最受欢迎的成长板块中的早期公司。这些行业包括电动汽车、机器人、飞行电动汽车、卫星服务和药物发现。似乎没有一家被投资方本身能够提供足够的升值潜力来大幅提高Palantir的估值。Palantir的持股比例为0.4%至1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚每家公司有多少资金可以用于Palantir的软件。此外,目前尚不清楚这些公司截至2021年第三季度的1900万美元收入是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>我在blue中强调了Palantir对这七家公司的总投资为1.5亿美元。黄色突出显示的单元格代表投资的当前估值。Palantir目前仅在这七家公司上就下跌了约6400万美元。这凸显了这种客户获取方法的极端风险,因为迄今为止的资本损失使产生的收入相形见绌。上面没有列出其他私营公司的投资,但是,Palantir没有透露细节。它们包含在Palantir资产负债表上的其他资产中,截至2021年第三季度,该资产总额为1.16亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了Palantir截至2021年第三季度投资新公司的承诺。我用黄色突出显示了Palantir在2021年第三季度末后资助的两家公司。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><blockquote>我用蓝色突出显示了截至2021年第三季度新投资的总资金承诺。这是在第三季度末之前完成的1.5亿美元的基础上完成的2.52亿美元。虽然我没有研究过这些特定的公司,但它们似乎与上面回顾的前七项投资相似。这意味着,与Palantir软件业务固有的估值上涨空间相比,它们似乎具有极大的资本风险,但上涨潜力可能很小。需要注意的是,近期估值极端,继续快速收缩。因此,在VC/IPO周期的顶部进行投资也会增加资本损失的时间风险。</blockquote></p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p><blockquote>谈到Palantir最近的表现,我选择将销售增长视为不包括被投资方,因为这是最有可能的可持续增长轨迹。下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。我通过去除被投资方的收入进行了调整,以得出净收入数字。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><blockquote>我用黄色突出显示了扣除被投资方收入后2021年第三季度29%的收入增长。被投资公司第三季度增长了6.5%。年初至今,被投资方收入占收入增长1.7%。29%的增长率已经低于该公司到十年中期30%的增长指导。请记住,随着Palantir投资承诺的额外资金,被投资方的收入流将会增长。无论如何,第三季度的增长率迅速放缓至29%,而不包括这些非公平销售,今年迄今的增长率为41%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Geographic & Segment Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>地理和细分市场销售</b></blockquote></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p><blockquote>销售放缓是由法国主导的,2021年前三个季度收缩了22%(下面用橙色突出显示)。应该指出的是,Palantir与空客和航空业有着重要的关系。对于一个重要的客户和行业来说,这可能是一个负面的解读。虽然美国在2021年第三季度仍然是表现最好的国家,但正如下面蓝色突出显示的单元格所证明的那样,增长正在迅速放缓。该表根据Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告编制。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p><blockquote>除法国外,世界其他地区也在迅速放缓,从今年前9个月的45%降至2021年第三季度的20%。请注意,这些是未经任何调整的报告销售额。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的,强调第三季度销售大幅放缓发生在政府部门。请记住,被投资方收入包含在下图中,并为商业部门第三季度增长率增加了约6.5%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之,商业部门的收入增长相当稳定,不包括被投资方收入,增长约29%。然而,政府部门正在迅速减速,从2021年前9个月的57%降至第三季度的34%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Profit & KPI</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利及关键绩效指标</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不同寻常的客户获取策略早于转向被投资方。该公司的销售和营销费用似乎与其他公司的销售成本非常相似。之所以如此,是因为Palantir为潜在客户提供免费的试点计划,而不是要求预先付费才能使用其软件。销售和营销人员执行试点计划并协调解决方案开发,以产生销售。以下引用2021年第三季度10-Q总结了情况:</blockquote></p><p>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p><blockquote>销售和营销成本主要包括工资、股票薪酬费用以及我们的销售人员和参与执行试点和客户增长活动的人员的福利...因此,我认为Palantir的销售和营销费用是销售商品的成本和毛利率的降低。虽然这种分类不会影响底线,但它确实有助于将报告的78%毛利率置于背景中。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这种对销售和营销费用的看法有助于思考Palantir相对于其他公司的商业模式以及依赖毛利率的相对估值。下表根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制,显示了通过从每个行项目中删除相关股票薪酬费用进行调整的报告收入成本以及销售和营销费用。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>请注意,与2021年前9个月的59%(以黄色突出显示)相比,第三季度调整后的毛利润增长大幅放缓至25%(在表格下部以蓝色突出显示)。与今年前九个月相比,2021年第三季度的销售成本迅速上升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir利用一个KPI或关键绩效指标来判断绩效并为决策提供信息,称为贡献率。它与我上面调整后的毛利率数据类似,如下表所示,该表是根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制的。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><blockquote>请注意,贡献行与上表中调整后的毛利润行非常相似。此外,生长速率减速是相似的,如在突出显示的细胞中可以看到的。虽然37%与我估计的25%增长有很大不同,但低于64%的阶跃变化幅度相似。</blockquote></p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p><blockquote><b>营业收入</b></blockquote></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p><blockquote>谈到营业收入,我再次调整了报告的数据,剔除了股票期权相关费用以及与2020年直接上市IPO相关的一次性费用。最重要的信息再次是快速减速。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的,显示了不包括销售和营销费用的运营费用,以及我调整后的运营收入估计。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>在表格的下半部分,请注意2021年第三季度调整后营业收入令人难以置信地减速至40%的增长,而今年前9个月的增长为266%。一般和管理费用在2021年第三季度迅速增加,而Palantir在第三季度大幅减少了研发投资,仅增长了5%。</blockquote></p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>研发投资放缓可能会对销售增长产生负面影响,因为研发是销售过程中不可或缺的一部分。研发费用应该通过三个客户阶段来跟踪销售周期:获取、扩展和规模化。随着销售和营销部门确定客户需求,研发费用应响应未来销售潜力的增加。目前这似乎没有发生。</blockquote></p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年第三季度,Palantir调整后的年化营业收入运行率约为300至3.2亿美元,即每股约0.16美元。这是税前营业收入数字。营业收入方面的主要结论是盈利能力正在迅速放缓。这为正在部署的不同寻常的被投资方客户获取策略提供了额外的色彩。</blockquote></p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>共识增长估计</b></blockquote></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>如果Palantir的调整后年营业收入运行率为3.2亿美元,并且按25%的正常化税率征税,则当前的盈利能力将在2.4亿美元范围内,即稀释后每股0.12美元。有了这些信息和上面概述的增长减速,我们可以开始将普遍的盈利预测置于背景中。下表根据Seeking Alpha编制,显示了到2023年的普遍盈利和收入预测。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:寻求阿尔法。创建者:Brian Kapp,stoxdox</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p><blockquote>我强调了对2022年盈利和销售增长的普遍预期。请注意,2022年39%的普遍盈利增长预期与2021年第三季度40%的营业收入增长一致。此外,30%的销售增长预期略高于2021年第三季度29%的调整后销售增长(不包括对被投资方的销售)。</blockquote></p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于2021年第三季度营业收入迅速放缓至40%,而今年前9个月的营业收入为266%,预计2022年39%的盈利增长似乎面临过高的重大风险。这一轨迹可能会使2022年的盈利增长率远低于39%。</blockquote></p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于Palantir对随后购买Palantir软件的被投资方采取了积极的投资策略,2022年30%的销售额增长预期似乎是可以实现的。我相信市场会像我一样对被投资方的销售打折。排除这些销售,2022年收入增长轨迹似乎接近20%,而不是30%,这为进一步的增长失望打开了大门。</blockquote></p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>从2023年的共识预测来看,预期增长率与2022年非常相似。这种到2023年的直线增长预测增加了未来几年共识估计可能过高的风险。目前的轨迹表明,2022年和2023年的增长将大幅低于预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的交易价格是2021年普遍盈利预期的87倍,是2022年普遍盈利预期的62倍。请记住,这些是非GAAP(公认会计原则)盈利预测。根据公认会计准则,Palantir继续亏损生产。报告的2021年第三季度亏损为9200万美元,2021年前9个月亏损为3.52亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>使用非公认会计准则盈利预测,从历史市场角度来看,87倍的本年度盈利和62倍的预期盈利是极端估值。也就是说,它们是近年来成长型股票的可能性范围内的。考虑到Palantir迅速放缓的销售和营业收入增长率,以及共识估计可能过高的风险增加,目前共识估计的估值倍数几乎没有出错的余地。</blockquote></p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>在销售方面,Palantir的估值是2021年普遍收入预期的17倍,是2022年的13倍。从历史角度来看,对于大盘股公司来说,这些是极端的市销率倍数。我对核心销售增长趋势为20%(不包括被投资方收入)的估计表明,这些销售估值倍数也几乎没有误差。</blockquote></p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><blockquote>再加上营业收入增长迅速放缓,估值风险进一步上升。此外,从我截至2021年第三季度调整后的毛利率增长25%可以看出,Palantir的商业模式可能不支持历史上极端的市销率估值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然基本面背景表明误差幅度很小,超额回报潜力减弱,但技术设置表明更有意义的上行回报潜力。下面的3年周线图提供了潜在技术回报谱的鸟瞰图。我用橙色水平线突出显示了关键阻力位,用绿线突出了主要支撑位。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Palantir 3年周线图。(由Brian Kapp使用Barchart.com的图表创建)</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>最近阻力位19美元和22美元的回报潜力分别为43%和65%。下行方面,最近的支撑位于10美元附近的IPO价格区间。该水平的下行回报潜力为-25%。需要注意的是,Palantir 16个月的短暂交易历史限制了技术分析的有用性。此外,由于没有低于IPO价格的交易历史,尚不清楚如果向下突破10美元水平,将在哪里找到支撑。</blockquote></p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计低于10美元的下行潜力,我采用了2022年非GAAP共识盈利预测的40倍市盈率。这一估值是当前市场平均水平的两倍,Palantir股价将达到8美元。这意味着较当前水平的下行风险为-40%。</blockquote></p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p><blockquote>如果2022年39%的普遍盈利预期过高,则有可能从8美元进一步下跌。如果估计过高,为了估计潜在的下行风险,我将相同的40倍非GAAP收益应用于Palantir当前完全纳税、非GAAP盈利能力的年运行率估计。如果2022年盈利增长率为25%(我对截至2021年第三季度调整后毛利润增长率的估计),而我对当前调整后税后盈利年增长率的估计为0.12美元,那么该股的交易价格可能会跌至6美元。这意味着下行风险为-55%。</blockquote></p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>下面的日线图详细介绍了技术背景。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><blockquote>技术面显示19美元至22美元之间存在较大阻力。鉴于过去三个月的持续下跌趋势,近期可能会出现反弹。也就是说,上行的技术潜力与下行的基本面潜力相结合,使该股在短期内具有65%至-55%的平衡潜在回报范围。</blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之,Palantir应该被列入高风险成长型投资者的观察名单。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而,由于出现了明显的危险信号,因此需要谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升(误差幅度有限)。由此产生的风险和回报之间的对称性导致中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir:危险信号还是机遇?</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir:危险信号还是机遇?</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-05 11:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至2021年第三季度,Palantir总共只有203名客户,而其中只有20名客户占总收入的58%。</li><li>与2020年相比,2021年前三季度Palantir核心客户群的年化收入增长放缓至20%。</li><li>2021年,Palantir从根本上改变了其上市战略。该公司目前正在利用其现金积极投资同意购买Palantir软件的其他公司(被投资方)。</li><li>管理层继续指导到十年中期销售额增长30%。然而,Palantir的三阶段业务模式暗示,不包括其被投资方的销售额,销售额呈下降趋势。</li><li>Palantir提供了非凡的长期增长潜力,这应该使其成为所有成长型投资者的观察名单。投资案例建立在机会和危险信号之间的支点上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>agawa288/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>我给予Palantir(纽约证券交易所股票代码:PLTR)中性风险/回报评级,因为长期增长机会被近期危险信号所抵消。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而,一些值得注意的危险信号值得谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升(误差幅度有限)。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险/回报评级:中性</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><blockquote>与企业软件领域的同行相比,Palantir在获取和扩大客户群方面拥有不同寻常的商业模式。该公司根据三个发展阶段或群体对其客户进行分类:(1)收购、(2)扩张和(3)规模。虽然它们是适用于所有企业的通用术语,但由于该公司对待客户的方式,它们在Palantir的情况下是独一无二的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户详细信息</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir将收购群体中的客户定义为截至年底收入低于100,000美元且对Palantir无利可图的客户。扩展群组的特点是一个销售额超过100,000美元但仍未盈利的客户。最后,规模群体被定义为在这一年中为Palantir创造了超过100,000美元收入且具有盈利关系的客户。</blockquote></p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p><blockquote>下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。第一个表显示了Palantir在2020年底分类的每个客户群体的2020年销售额(2020年收入)。在2021年年化栏中,您会发现这些2020年客户群到2021年第三季度的年化销售额。在第二组表格中,我汇编了过去12个月Palantir最大客户的关键详细信息,以及与2021年Palantir新客户相关的关键详细信息,这些客户尚未分配到某个群组。队列分类在每年年底进行。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p><blockquote>为了便于比较,我对相关信息进行了颜色编码。Palantir的主要现实之一是其集中的客户群,以蓝色突出显示。Palantir只有203个客户,前20名占销售额的58%。</blockquote></p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义,Palantir最大的客户属于规模群体。到2021年前三季度,规模队列(2020年底分类)以20%的年化速度增长。鉴于该群体占Palantir收入的86%,如果没有其他两个群体的爆炸性增长或规模群体的实质性加速,将销售增长率大幅提高到20%以上将具有挑战性。应该指出的是,管理层指导到十年中期年销售额增长30%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p><blockquote>上表中以黄色突出显示了2020年底收购和扩展队列。在年终Palantir报告发布之前,2021年的新客户不会被分配到一个队列中。我用黄色突出显示了相关的2021年新客户数据,以便于与2020年获取和扩展客户群体进行比较。我认为2021年新客户销售业绩(不包括对被投资方的销售)是可持续的核心增长率。被投资方的客户获取策略非常不寻常,具有极高的资本风险,从而引入声誉风险,从而引入品牌风险。</blockquote></p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>请注意,这里的被投资方是指Palantir使用Palantir的软件购买其股票以换取被投资方的客户。这意味着,来自被投资方的收入是Palantir投资这些客户股票的回报。在这方面,这些不是公平交易。我认为,不包括对被投资方的销售的新客户数量是确定纯粹基于市场的新客户增长率的重要数据点。</blockquote></p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>与2021年规模群体的年化增长率20%类似,到2021年第三季度,新客户销售额的年化增长率为22%,而2020年收购和扩张群体的销售额为2060万美元。虽然这不是新客户销售增长的完美比较,但这是一个公平的估计。因此,Palantir的基本销售增长率似乎倾向于接近20%,而不是该公司到十年中期30%的销售增长指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p><blockquote><b>被投资方</b></blockquote></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p><blockquote>退一步回顾Palantir对被投资方的投资非常重要,因为这是一种非常不寻常的获取客户的上市策略。上述数字表明收入增长趋势为20%,这让Palantir使用资产负债表现金为新客户提供资金的方式有了新的认识。下表摘自Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q。第一个表格列出了截至2021年第三季度末Palantir资助的公司。第二个表格显示了Palantir对尚未获得资金的新公司的投资承诺。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>我对上述每家公司都进行了粗略的回顾。共同的主题是,它们都是最受欢迎的成长板块中的早期公司。这些行业包括电动汽车、机器人、飞行电动汽车、卫星服务和药物发现。似乎没有一家被投资方本身能够提供足够的升值潜力来大幅提高Palantir的估值。Palantir的持股比例为0.4%至1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚每家公司有多少资金可以用于Palantir的软件。此外,目前尚不清楚这些公司截至2021年第三季度的1900万美元收入是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>我在blue中强调了Palantir对这七家公司的总投资为1.5亿美元。黄色突出显示的单元格代表投资的当前估值。Palantir目前仅在这七家公司上就下跌了约6400万美元。这凸显了这种客户获取方法的极端风险,因为迄今为止的资本损失使产生的收入相形见绌。上面没有列出其他私营公司的投资,但是,Palantir没有透露细节。它们包含在Palantir资产负债表上的其他资产中,截至2021年第三季度,该资产总额为1.16亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了Palantir截至2021年第三季度投资新公司的承诺。我用黄色突出显示了Palantir在2021年第三季度末后资助的两家公司。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><blockquote>我用蓝色突出显示了截至2021年第三季度新投资的总资金承诺。这是在第三季度末之前完成的1.5亿美元的基础上完成的2.52亿美元。虽然我没有研究过这些特定的公司,但它们似乎与上面回顾的前七项投资相似。这意味着,与Palantir软件业务固有的估值上涨空间相比,它们似乎具有极大的资本风险,但上涨潜力可能很小。需要注意的是,近期估值极端,继续快速收缩。因此,在VC/IPO周期的顶部进行投资也会增加资本损失的时间风险。</blockquote></p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p><blockquote>谈到Palantir最近的表现,我选择将销售增长视为不包括被投资方,因为这是最有可能的可持续增长轨迹。下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。我通过去除被投资方的收入进行了调整,以得出净收入数字。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><blockquote>我用黄色突出显示了扣除被投资方收入后2021年第三季度29%的收入增长。被投资公司第三季度增长了6.5%。年初至今,被投资方收入占收入增长1.7%。29%的增长率已经低于该公司到十年中期30%的增长指导。请记住,随着Palantir投资承诺的额外资金,被投资方的收入流将会增长。无论如何,第三季度的增长率迅速放缓至29%,而不包括这些非公平销售,今年迄今的增长率为41%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Geographic & Segment Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>地理和细分市场销售</b></blockquote></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p><blockquote>销售放缓是由法国主导的,2021年前三个季度收缩了22%(下面用橙色突出显示)。应该指出的是,Palantir与空客和航空业有着重要的关系。对于一个重要的客户和行业来说,这可能是一个负面的解读。虽然美国在2021年第三季度仍然是表现最好的国家,但正如下面蓝色突出显示的单元格所证明的那样,增长正在迅速放缓。该表根据Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告编制。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p><blockquote>除法国外,世界其他地区也在迅速放缓,从今年前9个月的45%降至2021年第三季度的20%。请注意,这些是未经任何调整的报告销售额。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的,强调第三季度销售大幅放缓发生在政府部门。请记住,被投资方收入包含在下图中,并为商业部门第三季度增长率增加了约6.5%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之,商业部门的收入增长相当稳定,不包括被投资方收入,增长约29%。然而,政府部门正在迅速减速,从2021年前9个月的57%降至第三季度的34%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Profit & KPI</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利及关键绩效指标</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不同寻常的客户获取策略早于转向被投资方。该公司的销售和营销费用似乎与其他公司的销售成本非常相似。之所以如此,是因为Palantir为潜在客户提供免费的试点计划,而不是要求预先付费才能使用其软件。销售和营销人员执行试点计划并协调解决方案开发,以产生销售。以下引用2021年第三季度10-Q总结了情况:</blockquote></p><p>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p><blockquote>销售和营销成本主要包括工资、股票薪酬费用以及我们的销售人员和参与执行试点和客户增长活动的人员的福利...因此,我认为Palantir的销售和营销费用是销售商品的成本和毛利率的降低。虽然这种分类不会影响底线,但它确实有助于将报告的78%毛利率置于背景中。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这种对销售和营销费用的看法有助于思考Palantir相对于其他公司的商业模式以及依赖毛利率的相对估值。下表根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制,显示了通过从每个行项目中删除相关股票薪酬费用进行调整的报告收入成本以及销售和营销费用。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>请注意,与2021年前9个月的59%(以黄色突出显示)相比,第三季度调整后的毛利润增长大幅放缓至25%(在表格下部以蓝色突出显示)。与今年前九个月相比,2021年第三季度的销售成本迅速上升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir利用一个KPI或关键绩效指标来判断绩效并为决策提供信息,称为贡献率。它与我上面调整后的毛利率数据类似,如下表所示,该表是根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制的。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><blockquote>请注意,贡献行与上表中调整后的毛利润行非常相似。此外,生长速率减速是相似的,如在突出显示的细胞中可以看到的。虽然37%与我估计的25%增长有很大不同,但低于64%的阶跃变化幅度相似。</blockquote></p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p><blockquote><b>营业收入</b></blockquote></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p><blockquote>谈到营业收入,我再次调整了报告的数据,剔除了股票期权相关费用以及与2020年直接上市IPO相关的一次性费用。最重要的信息再次是快速减速。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的,显示了不包括销售和营销费用的运营费用,以及我调整后的运营收入估计。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>在表格的下半部分,请注意2021年第三季度调整后营业收入令人难以置信地减速至40%的增长,而今年前9个月的增长为266%。一般和管理费用在2021年第三季度迅速增加,而Palantir在第三季度大幅减少了研发投资,仅增长了5%。</blockquote></p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>研发投资放缓可能会对销售增长产生负面影响,因为研发是销售过程中不可或缺的一部分。研发费用应该通过三个客户阶段来跟踪销售周期:获取、扩展和规模化。随着销售和营销部门确定客户需求,研发费用应响应未来销售潜力的增加。目前这似乎没有发生。</blockquote></p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年第三季度,Palantir调整后的年化营业收入运行率约为300至3.2亿美元,即每股约0.16美元。这是税前营业收入数字。营业收入方面的主要结论是盈利能力正在迅速放缓。这为正在部署的不同寻常的被投资方客户获取策略提供了额外的色彩。</blockquote></p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>共识增长估计</b></blockquote></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>如果Palantir的调整后年营业收入运行率为3.2亿美元,并且按25%的正常化税率征税,则当前的盈利能力将在2.4亿美元范围内,即稀释后每股0.12美元。有了这些信息和上面概述的增长减速,我们可以开始将普遍的盈利预测置于背景中。下表根据Seeking Alpha编制,显示了到2023年的普遍盈利和收入预测。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:寻求阿尔法。创建者:Brian Kapp,stoxdox</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p><blockquote>我强调了对2022年盈利和销售增长的普遍预期。请注意,2022年39%的普遍盈利增长预期与2021年第三季度40%的营业收入增长一致。此外,30%的销售增长预期略高于2021年第三季度29%的调整后销售增长(不包括对被投资方的销售)。</blockquote></p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于2021年第三季度营业收入迅速放缓至40%,而今年前9个月的营业收入为266%,预计2022年39%的盈利增长似乎面临过高的重大风险。这一轨迹可能会使2022年的盈利增长率远低于39%。</blockquote></p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于Palantir对随后购买Palantir软件的被投资方采取了积极的投资策略,2022年30%的销售额增长预期似乎是可以实现的。我相信市场会像我一样对被投资方的销售打折。排除这些销售,2022年收入增长轨迹似乎接近20%,而不是30%,这为进一步的增长失望打开了大门。</blockquote></p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>从2023年的共识预测来看,预期增长率与2022年非常相似。这种到2023年的直线增长预测增加了未来几年共识估计可能过高的风险。目前的轨迹表明,2022年和2023年的增长将大幅低于预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的交易价格是2021年普遍盈利预期的87倍,是2022年普遍盈利预期的62倍。请记住,这些是非GAAP(公认会计原则)盈利预测。根据公认会计准则,Palantir继续亏损生产。报告的2021年第三季度亏损为9200万美元,2021年前9个月亏损为3.52亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>使用非公认会计准则盈利预测,从历史市场角度来看,87倍的本年度盈利和62倍的预期盈利是极端估值。也就是说,它们是近年来成长型股票的可能性范围内的。考虑到Palantir迅速放缓的销售和营业收入增长率,以及共识估计可能过高的风险增加,目前共识估计的估值倍数几乎没有出错的余地。</blockquote></p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>在销售方面,Palantir的估值是2021年普遍收入预期的17倍,是2022年的13倍。从历史角度来看,对于大盘股公司来说,这些是极端的市销率倍数。我对核心销售增长趋势为20%(不包括被投资方收入)的估计表明,这些销售估值倍数也几乎没有误差。</blockquote></p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><blockquote>再加上营业收入增长迅速放缓,估值风险进一步上升。此外,从我截至2021年第三季度调整后的毛利率增长25%可以看出,Palantir的商业模式可能不支持历史上极端的市销率估值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然基本面背景表明误差幅度很小,超额回报潜力减弱,但技术设置表明更有意义的上行回报潜力。下面的3年周线图提供了潜在技术回报谱的鸟瞰图。我用橙色水平线突出显示了关键阻力位,用绿线突出了主要支撑位。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Palantir 3年周线图。(由Brian Kapp使用Barchart.com的图表创建)</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>最近阻力位19美元和22美元的回报潜力分别为43%和65%。下行方面,最近的支撑位于10美元附近的IPO价格区间。该水平的下行回报潜力为-25%。需要注意的是,Palantir 16个月的短暂交易历史限制了技术分析的有用性。此外,由于没有低于IPO价格的交易历史,尚不清楚如果向下突破10美元水平,将在哪里找到支撑。</blockquote></p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计低于10美元的下行潜力,我采用了2022年非GAAP共识盈利预测的40倍市盈率。这一估值是当前市场平均水平的两倍,Palantir股价将达到8美元。这意味着较当前水平的下行风险为-40%。</blockquote></p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p><blockquote>如果2022年39%的普遍盈利预期过高,则有可能从8美元进一步下跌。如果估计过高,为了估计潜在的下行风险,我将相同的40倍非GAAP收益应用于Palantir当前完全纳税、非GAAP盈利能力的年运行率估计。如果2022年盈利增长率为25%(我对截至2021年第三季度调整后毛利润增长率的估计),而我对当前调整后税后盈利年增长率的估计为0.12美元,那么该股的交易价格可能会跌至6美元。这意味着下行风险为-55%。</blockquote></p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>下面的日线图详细介绍了技术背景。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><blockquote>技术面显示19美元至22美元之间存在较大阻力。鉴于过去三个月的持续下跌趋势,近期可能会出现反弹。也就是说,上行的技术潜力与下行的基本面潜力相结合,使该股在短期内具有65%至-55%的平衡潜在回报范围。</blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之,Palantir应该被列入高风险成长型投资者的观察名单。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而,由于出现了明显的危险信号,因此需要谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升(误差幅度有限)。由此产生的风险和回报之间的对称性导致中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196927717","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.agawa288/iStock via Getty ImagesI am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.Risk/Reward Rating: NeutralPalantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.Customer DetailPalantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxSource: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxFor ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.InvesteesIt is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.Financial PerformanceTurning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.Geographic & Segment SalesThe sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.Gross Profit & KPIPalantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.Operating IncomeTurning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.Consensus Growth EstimatesIf Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.ValuationPalantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.TechnicalsWhile the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.SummaryAll told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633367335,"gmtCreate":1643780426861,"gmtModify":1643780496986,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572043809285615","idStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633367335","repostId":"2208351732","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633903844,"gmtCreate":1643634693337,"gmtModify":1643634695404,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572043809285615","idStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OMy....","listText":"OMy....","text":"OMy....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633903844","repostId":"1175691930","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1175691930","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643631356,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175691930?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-31 20:15","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"盘前 | 恐慌指数拉升!股指期货全线转跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175691930","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月31日,美股三大股指期货全线转跌,截至发稿,道指期货跌0.76%;纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.16%;标普500指数期货跌0.57%。恐慌指数VIX涨5.57% ,现报29.2盘前行情奈飞盘前涨超","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月31日,美股三大股指期货全线转跌,截至发稿,道指期货跌0.76%;纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.16%;标普500指数期货跌0.57%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5313bcd98b9d0f41eaa8fafeeadf2c55\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"183\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>恐慌指数VIX涨5.57% ,现报29.2</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb1f67f76f0c9dc2c05b54a852c3b9a0\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>盘前行情</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>盘前涨超3%,美国SEC一份文件显示,联合首席执行官回购51440股,涉资2000万美元。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">诺瓦瓦克斯医药</a>盘前涨超4%,此前消息,与以色列达成协议,提供500万剂新冠肺炎疫苗。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">Beyond Meat</a>盘前涨超4%,巴克莱将其从减配上调到超配,目标价从70美元上调至80美元。</p><p><b>欧洲市场</b></p><p>欧洲主要股指少数转跌,截至发稿,德国DAX30指数涨0.29%,英国富时100跌0.01%,法国CAC40跌0.3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c402aa5a783f72065015a42a473da3\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>原油</b></p><p>原油期货涨幅收窄,截止发稿,WTI原油涨0.36%,报87.13美元/桶;布伦特原油涨0.41%,报88.88美元/桶。</p><p>油价近期持续保持强势,基本面格局仍未有改观。俄乌局势引而未发,OPEC+增产始终未能达到目标,尽管油价前期已经消化这些影响,但空头仍然有所忌惮,未敢轻易入场做空。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb1f29f3ac33742d568c22c01b4abda5\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"825\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d60ec872235f85150241a1de272c23a\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>黄金期货日内走高,截止发稿,涨0.3%,报1791.9美元/盎司。</p><p>基本面美联储带来的压力有望继续发酵,市场开始消化加息四次以上的可能性,尤其在日内风险情绪尚可的情况下,金价下行的机会将更大。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193fcfac001eb18816336ee50f1ddd4d\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"825\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前 | 恐慌指数拉升!股指期货全线转跌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前 | 恐慌指数拉升!股指期货全线转跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-31 20:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>1月31日,美股三大股指期货全线转跌,截至发稿,道指期货跌0.76%;纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.16%;标普500指数期货跌0.57%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5313bcd98b9d0f41eaa8fafeeadf2c55\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"183\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>恐慌指数VIX涨5.57% ,现报29.2</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb1f67f76f0c9dc2c05b54a852c3b9a0\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>盘前行情</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>盘前涨超3%,美国SEC一份文件显示,联合首席执行官回购51440股,涉资2000万美元。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">诺瓦瓦克斯医药</a>盘前涨超4%,此前消息,与以色列达成协议,提供500万剂新冠肺炎疫苗。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">Beyond Meat</a>盘前涨超4%,巴克莱将其从减配上调到超配,目标价从70美元上调至80美元。</p><p><b>欧洲市场</b></p><p>欧洲主要股指少数转跌,截至发稿,德国DAX30指数涨0.29%,英国富时100跌0.01%,法国CAC40跌0.3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c402aa5a783f72065015a42a473da3\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>原油</b></p><p>原油期货涨幅收窄,截止发稿,WTI原油涨0.36%,报87.13美元/桶;布伦特原油涨0.41%,报88.88美元/桶。</p><p>油价近期持续保持强势,基本面格局仍未有改观。俄乌局势引而未发,OPEC+增产始终未能达到目标,尽管油价前期已经消化这些影响,但空头仍然有所忌惮,未敢轻易入场做空。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb1f29f3ac33742d568c22c01b4abda5\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"825\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d60ec872235f85150241a1de272c23a\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>黄金期货日内走高,截止发稿,涨0.3%,报1791.9美元/盎司。</p><p>基本面美联储带来的压力有望继续发酵,市场开始消化加息四次以上的可能性,尤其在日内风险情绪尚可的情况下,金价下行的机会将更大。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193fcfac001eb18816336ee50f1ddd4d\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"825\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","VIX":"标普500波动率指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175691930","content_text":"1月31日,美股三大股指期货全线转跌,截至发稿,道指期货跌0.76%;纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.16%;标普500指数期货跌0.57%。恐慌指数VIX涨5.57% ,现报29.2盘前行情奈飞盘前涨超3%,美国SEC一份文件显示,联合首席执行官回购51440股,涉资2000万美元。诺瓦瓦克斯医药盘前涨超4%,此前消息,与以色列达成协议,提供500万剂新冠肺炎疫苗。Beyond Meat盘前涨超4%,巴克莱将其从减配上调到超配,目标价从70美元上调至80美元。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指少数转跌,截至发稿,德国DAX30指数涨0.29%,英国富时100跌0.01%,法国CAC40跌0.3%。原油原油期货涨幅收窄,截止发稿,WTI原油涨0.36%,报87.13美元/桶;布伦特原油涨0.41%,报88.88美元/桶。油价近期持续保持强势,基本面格局仍未有改观。俄乌局势引而未发,OPEC+增产始终未能达到目标,尽管油价前期已经消化这些影响,但空头仍然有所忌惮,未敢轻易入场做空。黄金黄金期货日内走高,截止发稿,涨0.3%,报1791.9美元/盎司。基本面美联储带来的压力有望继续发酵,市场开始消化加息四次以上的可能性,尤其在日内风险情绪尚可的情况下,金价下行的机会将更大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"VIX":0,".DJI":0.9,"YMmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633010237,"gmtCreate":1643550799618,"gmtModify":1643550799881,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572043809285615","idStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633010237","repostId":"2207803183","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630758439,"gmtCreate":1643063271704,"gmtModify":1643063271940,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572043809285615","idStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630758439","repostId":"1120647228","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120647228","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643028586,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120647228?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-24 20:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pre-Bell|Kohl’s Soared 27.3%; Unilever Surged 6.6%<blockquote>盘前|美国柯尔百货公司大涨27.3%;联合利华飙升6.6%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120647228","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock index futures slid on Monday after a bruising selloff last week, as geopolitical tensions","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. stock index futures slid on Monday after a bruising selloff last week, as geopolitical tensions in Ukraine roiled risk appetite ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting later this week.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>美国股指期货在上周大幅抛售后周一下跌,因乌克兰地缘政治紧张局势在本周晚些时候美联储政策会议之前搅乱了风险偏好。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p>At 08:31 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 228 points, or 0.67%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 46.75 points, or 1.06%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 218.75 points, or 1.52%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:31,道指e-mini下跌228点,跌幅0.67%,标普500 e-mini下跌46.75点,跌幅1.06%,纳斯达克100 e-mini下跌218.75点,跌幅1.52%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab508374f513e29226f0cd25657a2e0c\" tg-width=\"372\" tg-height=\"158\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Pre-Market Movers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上市前推动者</b></blockquote></p><p>Kohl’s (KSS) – Kohl’s soared 27.3% in premarket trading as takeover interest in the retailer ramps up. Starboard-backed Acacia Research is offering $64 per share for Kohl’s, compared to Friday’s close of $46.84 a share. People familiar with the matter say private-equity firm Sycamore Partners has reached out with a potential offer of at least $65 per share.</p><p><blockquote>Kohl's(KSS)——随着对该零售商的收购兴趣增强,Kohl's在盘前交易中飙升27.3%。右舷支持的Acacia Research出价每股64美元收购Kohl's,而周五收盘价为每股46.84美元。知情人士称,私募股权公司Sycamore Partners已提出每股至少65美元的潜在报价。</blockquote></p><p>Snap (SNAP) – Snap shares slid 5.3% in the premarket after it was downgraded to “neutral” from “outperform” at Wedbush, which sees various headwinds impacting the social media network operator’s revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>SNAP(SNAP)——SNAP股价在盘前下跌5.3%,此前韦德布什将其评级从“跑赢大盘”下调至“中性”,该公司认为各种不利因素影响了这家社交媒体网络运营商的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p>Philips (PHG) – Philips slid 4.2% in premarket action after the Dutch health technology company reported falling profit due in part to supply chain issues that are expected to persist in coming months. Philips did predict a strong recovery in sales for the second half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>飞利浦(PHG)——飞利浦在盘前下跌4.2%,此前这家荷兰健康技术公司报告利润下降,部分原因是供应链问题预计将在未来几个月持续存在。飞利浦确实预测下半年销售将强劲复苏。</blockquote></p><p>Peloton (PTON) – Activist investor Blackwells Capital is calling on Peloton to fire its CEO and seek a sale of the company. The fitness equipment maker’s stock is down more than 80% from its all-time high, as it struggles to deal with rapidly changing supply-and-demand dynamics. Peloton fell 2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton(PTON)——激进投资者Blackwells Capital呼吁Peloton解雇其首席执行官并寻求出售公司。由于难以应对快速变化的供需动态,这家健身器材制造商的股价较历史高点下跌了80%以上。Peloton在盘前交易中下跌2%。</blockquote></p><p>Halliburton (HAL) – Halliburton rose 1.5% in the premarket after the oilfield services company beat top and bottom line estimates for the fourth quarter. Halliburton earned 36 cents per share, 2 cents a share above estimates. Demand for the company’s services jumped as oil prices rose. Halliburton also raised its quarterly dividend to 12 cents per share from 4.5 cents a share.</p><p><blockquote>哈里伯顿(HAL)-哈里伯顿在盘前上涨1.5%,此前这家油田服务公司第四季度的营收和利润超出了预期。哈里伯顿每股盈利36美分,比预期高出2美分。随着油价上涨,对该公司服务的需求猛增。哈里伯顿还将季度股息从每股4.5美分提高到每股12美分。</blockquote></p><p>Unilever (UL) – Unilever surged 6.6% in the premarket following reports that Nelson Peltz’s Trian Partners has built up a stake in the consumer products giant. The size of the stake could not be determined, and Trian said it did not comment on market rumors when contacted by CNBC.</p><p><blockquote>联合利华(UL)——有报道称Nelson Peltz的Trian Partners已增持这家消费品巨头的股份,联合利华盘前股价飙升6.6%。持股规模无法确定,当CNBC联系Trian时,该公司表示不对市场传言发表评论。</blockquote></p><p>Fox Corp. (FOXA) – Fox added 1.6% in premarket trading after UBS upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral.” UBS said among traditional media companies, Fox is among the best poised to benefit from an acceleration in sports betting, and also pointed to Fox’s strong position among pay-TV providers.</p><p><blockquote>福克斯公司(FOXA)-瑞银将该股评级从“中性”上调至“买入”后,福克斯在盘前交易中上涨1.6%。瑞银表示,在传统媒体公司中,福克斯是最有可能从体育博彩加速中受益的公司之一,并指出福克斯在付费电视提供商中的强势地位。</blockquote></p><p>Discover Financial (DFS) – Discover Financial was upgraded to “overweight” from “neutral” at Piper Sandler, which cites several factors including the financial services company’s valuation. Discover gained 1.1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Discover Financial(DFS)-Piper Sandler将Discover Financial从“中性”上调至“跑赢大盘”,该评级引用了包括该金融服务公司估值在内的多个因素。Discover在盘前交易中上涨1.1%。</blockquote></p><p>Coinbase (COIN) – The cryptocurrency exchange operator’s shares tumbled 7.8% in the premarket, reflecting the downward move in crypto over the weekend and this morning, with Bitcoin touching its lowest level since July. Microstrategy (MSTR) – the business analytics company that holds several billion dollars in bitcoin – plunged 12.2%.</p><p><blockquote>Coinbase(COIN)——这家加密货币交易所运营商的股价在盘前下跌7.8%,反映出周末和今天上午加密货币的下跌,比特币触及7月以来的最低水平。Microstrategy(MSTR)——持有数十亿美元比特币的商业分析公司——股价暴跌12.2%。</blockquote></p><p>Comcast (CMCSA) – The NBCUniversal and CNBC parent was upgraded to “outperform” from “sector perform” at RBC Capital, which thinks that subscriber growth concerns have been overblown. Comcast added 1.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote>康卡斯特(CMCSA)——加拿大皇家银行资本(RBC Capital)将NBCUniversal和CNBC母公司的评级从“行业表现”上调至“跑赢大盘”,该公司认为对用户增长的担忧被夸大了。康卡斯特盘前上涨1.1%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market News</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场新闻</b></blockquote></p><p>Blackwells Capital to push stationary-bike maker to explore a sale, sources say. An activist investor wants Peloton Interactive Inc. to fire its chief executive and explore a sale after the stationary-bike maker’s stock plummeted more than 80% from its high, as growth slowed.</p><p><blockquote>消息人士称,布莱克威尔资本将推动固定自行车制造商探索出售。随着增长放缓,这家固定自行车制造商的股价从高点暴跌超过80%,一位激进投资者希望Peloton Interactive Inc.解雇其首席执行官并考虑出售。</blockquote></p><p>American banking giant JPMorgan has merged most of its European Union businesses into a single entity in Germany, it said on Monday, seeking to make its business in the bloc more competitive after Britain's departure.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行业巨头摩根大通周一表示,已将其大部分欧盟业务合并为德国的一个实体,寻求在英国脱欧后使其在欧盟的业务更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p>U.S. department store Kohl's Corp may soon receive a second takeover offer as private equity firm. Sycamore Partners has reached out to Kohl's about a potential offer that would value the company around $9 billion, one source said. The firm is willing to pay at least $65 a share in cash for the company, the source said.</p><p><blockquote>美国百货公司Kohl's Corp可能很快就会收到作为私募股权公司的第二次收购要约。一位消息人士称,Sycamore Partners已与Kohl's就一项潜在收购要约进行了接触,该收购要约将使该公司估值约为90亿美元。消息人士称,该公司愿意为该公司支付每股至少65美元的现金。</blockquote></p><p>Accell Group, the maker of bicycle brands such as Sparta and Batavus, has agreed to an all-cash takeover by a consortium led by KKR that values the company at 1.56 billion euros ($1.77 billion), it said in a statement on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>Sparta和Batavus等自行车品牌的制造商Accell Group周一在一份声明中表示,已同意由KKR牵头的财团进行全现金收购,该财团对该公司的估值为15.6亿欧元(17.7亿美元)。</blockquote></p><p>Wynn Resorts is looking to unload its online sports-betting business at a steep discount as the fledgling niche faces painful losses from stiff taxes and costly promotions needed to lure customers.</p><p><blockquote>永利度假村正寻求以大幅折扣出售其在线体育博彩业务,因为这个羽翼未丰的利基市场面临着高额税收和吸引顾客所需的昂贵促销活动带来的痛苦损失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>A stake that Nelson Peltz’s activist hedge fund has built in Unilever Plc is adding to pressure on the Dove soap maker’s chief executive officer, Alan Jope, after Jope’s failed bid to buy a consumer-health unit from GlaxoSmithKline Plc.</p><p><blockquote>纳尔逊·佩尔茨(Nelson Peltz)的激进对冲基金在联合利华(Unilever Plc)收购葛兰素史克(GlaxoSmithKline Plc)的消费者健康部门失败后,持有联合利华(Unilever Plc)的股份增加了这家多芬肥皂制造商首席执行官艾伦·乔普(Alan Jope)的压力。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-Bell|Kohl’s Soared 27.3%; Unilever Surged 6.6%<blockquote>盘前|美国柯尔百货公司大涨27.3%;联合利华飙升6.6%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-Bell|Kohl’s Soared 27.3%; Unilever Surged 6.6%<blockquote>盘前|美国柯尔百货公司大涨27.3%;联合利华飙升6.6%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-24 20:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. stock index futures slid on Monday after a bruising selloff last week, as geopolitical tensions in Ukraine roiled risk appetite ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting later this week.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>美国股指期货在上周大幅抛售后周一下跌,因乌克兰地缘政治紧张局势在本周晚些时候美联储政策会议之前搅乱了风险偏好。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p>At 08:31 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 228 points, or 0.67%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 46.75 points, or 1.06%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 218.75 points, or 1.52%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:31,道指e-mini下跌228点,跌幅0.67%,标普500 e-mini下跌46.75点,跌幅1.06%,纳斯达克100 e-mini下跌218.75点,跌幅1.52%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab508374f513e29226f0cd25657a2e0c\" tg-width=\"372\" tg-height=\"158\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Pre-Market Movers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上市前推动者</b></blockquote></p><p>Kohl’s (KSS) – Kohl’s soared 27.3% in premarket trading as takeover interest in the retailer ramps up. Starboard-backed Acacia Research is offering $64 per share for Kohl’s, compared to Friday’s close of $46.84 a share. People familiar with the matter say private-equity firm Sycamore Partners has reached out with a potential offer of at least $65 per share.</p><p><blockquote>Kohl's(KSS)——随着对该零售商的收购兴趣增强,Kohl's在盘前交易中飙升27.3%。右舷支持的Acacia Research出价每股64美元收购Kohl's,而周五收盘价为每股46.84美元。知情人士称,私募股权公司Sycamore Partners已提出每股至少65美元的潜在报价。</blockquote></p><p>Snap (SNAP) – Snap shares slid 5.3% in the premarket after it was downgraded to “neutral” from “outperform” at Wedbush, which sees various headwinds impacting the social media network operator’s revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>SNAP(SNAP)——SNAP股价在盘前下跌5.3%,此前韦德布什将其评级从“跑赢大盘”下调至“中性”,该公司认为各种不利因素影响了这家社交媒体网络运营商的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p>Philips (PHG) – Philips slid 4.2% in premarket action after the Dutch health technology company reported falling profit due in part to supply chain issues that are expected to persist in coming months. Philips did predict a strong recovery in sales for the second half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>飞利浦(PHG)——飞利浦在盘前下跌4.2%,此前这家荷兰健康技术公司报告利润下降,部分原因是供应链问题预计将在未来几个月持续存在。飞利浦确实预测下半年销售将强劲复苏。</blockquote></p><p>Peloton (PTON) – Activist investor Blackwells Capital is calling on Peloton to fire its CEO and seek a sale of the company. The fitness equipment maker’s stock is down more than 80% from its all-time high, as it struggles to deal with rapidly changing supply-and-demand dynamics. Peloton fell 2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton(PTON)——激进投资者Blackwells Capital呼吁Peloton解雇其首席执行官并寻求出售公司。由于难以应对快速变化的供需动态,这家健身器材制造商的股价较历史高点下跌了80%以上。Peloton在盘前交易中下跌2%。</blockquote></p><p>Halliburton (HAL) – Halliburton rose 1.5% in the premarket after the oilfield services company beat top and bottom line estimates for the fourth quarter. Halliburton earned 36 cents per share, 2 cents a share above estimates. Demand for the company’s services jumped as oil prices rose. Halliburton also raised its quarterly dividend to 12 cents per share from 4.5 cents a share.</p><p><blockquote>哈里伯顿(HAL)-哈里伯顿在盘前上涨1.5%,此前这家油田服务公司第四季度的营收和利润超出了预期。哈里伯顿每股盈利36美分,比预期高出2美分。随着油价上涨,对该公司服务的需求猛增。哈里伯顿还将季度股息从每股4.5美分提高到每股12美分。</blockquote></p><p>Unilever (UL) – Unilever surged 6.6% in the premarket following reports that Nelson Peltz’s Trian Partners has built up a stake in the consumer products giant. The size of the stake could not be determined, and Trian said it did not comment on market rumors when contacted by CNBC.</p><p><blockquote>联合利华(UL)——有报道称Nelson Peltz的Trian Partners已增持这家消费品巨头的股份,联合利华盘前股价飙升6.6%。持股规模无法确定,当CNBC联系Trian时,该公司表示不对市场传言发表评论。</blockquote></p><p>Fox Corp. (FOXA) – Fox added 1.6% in premarket trading after UBS upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral.” UBS said among traditional media companies, Fox is among the best poised to benefit from an acceleration in sports betting, and also pointed to Fox’s strong position among pay-TV providers.</p><p><blockquote>福克斯公司(FOXA)-瑞银将该股评级从“中性”上调至“买入”后,福克斯在盘前交易中上涨1.6%。瑞银表示,在传统媒体公司中,福克斯是最有可能从体育博彩加速中受益的公司之一,并指出福克斯在付费电视提供商中的强势地位。</blockquote></p><p>Discover Financial (DFS) – Discover Financial was upgraded to “overweight” from “neutral” at Piper Sandler, which cites several factors including the financial services company’s valuation. Discover gained 1.1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Discover Financial(DFS)-Piper Sandler将Discover Financial从“中性”上调至“跑赢大盘”,该评级引用了包括该金融服务公司估值在内的多个因素。Discover在盘前交易中上涨1.1%。</blockquote></p><p>Coinbase (COIN) – The cryptocurrency exchange operator’s shares tumbled 7.8% in the premarket, reflecting the downward move in crypto over the weekend and this morning, with Bitcoin touching its lowest level since July. Microstrategy (MSTR) – the business analytics company that holds several billion dollars in bitcoin – plunged 12.2%.</p><p><blockquote>Coinbase(COIN)——这家加密货币交易所运营商的股价在盘前下跌7.8%,反映出周末和今天上午加密货币的下跌,比特币触及7月以来的最低水平。Microstrategy(MSTR)——持有数十亿美元比特币的商业分析公司——股价暴跌12.2%。</blockquote></p><p>Comcast (CMCSA) – The NBCUniversal and CNBC parent was upgraded to “outperform” from “sector perform” at RBC Capital, which thinks that subscriber growth concerns have been overblown. Comcast added 1.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote>康卡斯特(CMCSA)——加拿大皇家银行资本(RBC Capital)将NBCUniversal和CNBC母公司的评级从“行业表现”上调至“跑赢大盘”,该公司认为对用户增长的担忧被夸大了。康卡斯特盘前上涨1.1%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market News</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场新闻</b></blockquote></p><p>Blackwells Capital to push stationary-bike maker to explore a sale, sources say. An activist investor wants Peloton Interactive Inc. to fire its chief executive and explore a sale after the stationary-bike maker’s stock plummeted more than 80% from its high, as growth slowed.</p><p><blockquote>消息人士称,布莱克威尔资本将推动固定自行车制造商探索出售。随着增长放缓,这家固定自行车制造商的股价从高点暴跌超过80%,一位激进投资者希望Peloton Interactive Inc.解雇其首席执行官并考虑出售。</blockquote></p><p>American banking giant JPMorgan has merged most of its European Union businesses into a single entity in Germany, it said on Monday, seeking to make its business in the bloc more competitive after Britain's departure.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行业巨头摩根大通周一表示,已将其大部分欧盟业务合并为德国的一个实体,寻求在英国脱欧后使其在欧盟的业务更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p>U.S. department store Kohl's Corp may soon receive a second takeover offer as private equity firm. Sycamore Partners has reached out to Kohl's about a potential offer that would value the company around $9 billion, one source said. The firm is willing to pay at least $65 a share in cash for the company, the source said.</p><p><blockquote>美国百货公司Kohl's Corp可能很快就会收到作为私募股权公司的第二次收购要约。一位消息人士称,Sycamore Partners已与Kohl's就一项潜在收购要约进行了接触,该收购要约将使该公司估值约为90亿美元。消息人士称,该公司愿意为该公司支付每股至少65美元的现金。</blockquote></p><p>Accell Group, the maker of bicycle brands such as Sparta and Batavus, has agreed to an all-cash takeover by a consortium led by KKR that values the company at 1.56 billion euros ($1.77 billion), it said in a statement on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>Sparta和Batavus等自行车品牌的制造商Accell Group周一在一份声明中表示,已同意由KKR牵头的财团进行全现金收购,该财团对该公司的估值为15.6亿欧元(17.7亿美元)。</blockquote></p><p>Wynn Resorts is looking to unload its online sports-betting business at a steep discount as the fledgling niche faces painful losses from stiff taxes and costly promotions needed to lure customers.</p><p><blockquote>永利度假村正寻求以大幅折扣出售其在线体育博彩业务,因为这个羽翼未丰的利基市场面临着高额税收和吸引顾客所需的昂贵促销活动带来的痛苦损失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>A stake that Nelson Peltz’s activist hedge fund has built in Unilever Plc is adding to pressure on the Dove soap maker’s chief executive officer, Alan Jope, after Jope’s failed bid to buy a consumer-health unit from GlaxoSmithKline Plc.</p><p><blockquote>纳尔逊·佩尔茨(Nelson Peltz)的激进对冲基金在联合利华(Unilever Plc)收购葛兰素史克(GlaxoSmithKline Plc)的消费者健康部门失败后,持有联合利华(Unilever Plc)的股份增加了这家多芬肥皂制造商首席执行官艾伦·乔普(Alan Jope)的压力。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120647228","content_text":"U.S. stock index futures slid on Monday after a bruising selloff last week, as geopolitical tensions in Ukraine roiled risk appetite ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting later this week.Market SnapshotAt 08:31 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 228 points, or 0.67%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 46.75 points, or 1.06%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 218.75 points, or 1.52%.Pre-Market MoversKohl’s (KSS) – Kohl’s soared 27.3% in premarket trading as takeover interest in the retailer ramps up. Starboard-backed Acacia Research is offering $64 per share for Kohl’s, compared to Friday’s close of $46.84 a share. People familiar with the matter say private-equity firm Sycamore Partners has reached out with a potential offer of at least $65 per share.Snap (SNAP) – Snap shares slid 5.3% in the premarket after it was downgraded to “neutral” from “outperform” at Wedbush, which sees various headwinds impacting the social media network operator’s revenue growth.Philips (PHG) – Philips slid 4.2% in premarket action after the Dutch health technology company reported falling profit due in part to supply chain issues that are expected to persist in coming months. Philips did predict a strong recovery in sales for the second half of the year.Peloton (PTON) – Activist investor Blackwells Capital is calling on Peloton to fire its CEO and seek a sale of the company. The fitness equipment maker’s stock is down more than 80% from its all-time high, as it struggles to deal with rapidly changing supply-and-demand dynamics. Peloton fell 2% in premarket trading.Halliburton (HAL) – Halliburton rose 1.5% in the premarket after the oilfield services company beat top and bottom line estimates for the fourth quarter. Halliburton earned 36 cents per share, 2 cents a share above estimates. Demand for the company’s services jumped as oil prices rose. Halliburton also raised its quarterly dividend to 12 cents per share from 4.5 cents a share.Unilever (UL) – Unilever surged 6.6% in the premarket following reports that Nelson Peltz’s Trian Partners has built up a stake in the consumer products giant. The size of the stake could not be determined, and Trian said it did not comment on market rumors when contacted by CNBC.Fox Corp. (FOXA) – Fox added 1.6% in premarket trading after UBS upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral.” UBS said among traditional media companies, Fox is among the best poised to benefit from an acceleration in sports betting, and also pointed to Fox’s strong position among pay-TV providers.Discover Financial (DFS) – Discover Financial was upgraded to “overweight” from “neutral” at Piper Sandler, which cites several factors including the financial services company’s valuation. Discover gained 1.1% in premarket trading.Coinbase (COIN) – The cryptocurrency exchange operator’s shares tumbled 7.8% in the premarket, reflecting the downward move in crypto over the weekend and this morning, with Bitcoin touching its lowest level since July. Microstrategy (MSTR) – the business analytics company that holds several billion dollars in bitcoin – plunged 12.2%.Comcast (CMCSA) – The NBCUniversal and CNBC parent was upgraded to “outperform” from “sector perform” at RBC Capital, which thinks that subscriber growth concerns have been overblown. Comcast added 1.1% in the premarket.Market NewsBlackwells Capital to push stationary-bike maker to explore a sale, sources say. An activist investor wants Peloton Interactive Inc. to fire its chief executive and explore a sale after the stationary-bike maker’s stock plummeted more than 80% from its high, as growth slowed.American banking giant JPMorgan has merged most of its European Union businesses into a single entity in Germany, it said on Monday, seeking to make its business in the bloc more competitive after Britain's departure.U.S. department store Kohl's Corp may soon receive a second takeover offer as private equity firm. Sycamore Partners has reached out to Kohl's about a potential offer that would value the company around $9 billion, one source said. The firm is willing to pay at least $65 a share in cash for the company, the source said.Accell Group, the maker of bicycle brands such as Sparta and Batavus, has agreed to an all-cash takeover by a consortium led by KKR that values the company at 1.56 billion euros ($1.77 billion), it said in a statement on Monday.Wynn Resorts is looking to unload its online sports-betting business at a steep discount as the fledgling niche faces painful losses from stiff taxes and costly promotions needed to lure customers.A stake that Nelson Peltz’s activist hedge fund has built in Unilever Plc is adding to pressure on the Dove soap maker’s chief executive officer, Alan Jope, after Jope’s failed bid to buy a consumer-health unit from GlaxoSmithKline Plc.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630268707,"gmtCreate":1642913585082,"gmtModify":1642913585405,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572043809285615","idStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630268707","repostId":"2205024969","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630992523,"gmtCreate":1642656986704,"gmtModify":1642656986997,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572043809285615","idStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630992523","repostId":"2204320050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}