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古凡
古凡
·
2021-05-21
$第九城市(NCTY)$
化粪池😂进去就……
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1
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古凡
古凡
·
2021-04-22
$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$
这几天去luckin竟然要排队[捂脸] 说前面还有30杯[笑哭] 以前几块钱一杯时都没这么好卖。不知发生什么事[呆住] 先买一手放着
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古凡
古凡
·
2021-03-03
磷酸铁锂电池版p7g3上市14.98万/22.99万,价格进一步下探!部分地区还有额外补贴(如广州另外补1万
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
还有即将上市的p5。很有潜力的公司,终身免费充电可是巨大吸引力。三巨头我最看好的是小鹏,nio很厉害,但它的换电模式是个巨大的坑[笑哭] 什么时候能盈利呢?
$蔚来(NIO)$
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古凡
古凡
·
2021-02-05
这种事在美股太多了,在a股就是神话……
茅台市值20年暴增330倍,白酒股定价依据是基金扎堆?
这是白酒股的集体逆袭?还是基金扎堆抱团、集体“逼空”?难道贵州茅台已成为了A股市场的“逆向”风向标? 在A股市场“战无不胜”的白酒股,确实是风光无限。在A股十大市值股中,贵州茅台(白酒股)名列榜首,
茅台市值20年暴增330倍,白酒股定价依据是基金扎堆?
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古凡
古凡
·
2021-01-26
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
收割开始,散户快割好让主力接手……
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古凡
古凡
·
2021-01-09
$蔚来(NIO)$
明年才年交货…股价要跌
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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n茅台市值20年暴增330倍,白酒股定价依据是基金扎堆?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-05 11:12 北京时间 <a href=https://www.yicai.com/news/100942083.html><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这是白酒股的集体逆袭?还是基金扎堆抱团、集体“逼空”?难道贵州茅台已成为了A股市场的“逆向”风向标?\n\n在A股市场“战无不胜”的白酒股,确实是风光无限。在A股十大市值股中,贵州茅台(白酒股)名列榜首,遥遥领先,排列第二位的工商银行甘拜下风,其A股市值尚不及贵州茅台的一半;屈居第三位的五粮液(白酒股),其市值竟然超过了招商银行、农业银行的A股市值。这是否代表了中国产业结构的现状?还是中国股市的格局?...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/100942083.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba16b4f88c90908701f4ff26fee613c","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/100942083.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152548567","content_text":"这是白酒股的集体逆袭?还是基金扎堆抱团、集体“逼空”?难道贵州茅台已成为了A股市场的“逆向”风向标?\n\n在A股市场“战无不胜”的白酒股,确实是风光无限。在A股十大市值股中,贵州茅台(白酒股)名列榜首,遥遥领先,排列第二位的工商银行甘拜下风,其A股市值尚不及贵州茅台的一半;屈居第三位的五粮液(白酒股),其市值竟然超过了招商银行、农业银行的A股市值。这是否代表了中国产业结构的现状?还是中国股市的格局?\n截至2020年第三季报,贵州茅台共有1400多只公募基金集中扎堆,此外,还有许多神秘的私募基金重仓其中;同样,五粮液也有1100多只公募基金集中扎堆,当然也少不了大量的私募基金重仓其中。公募基金投资组合高度同质化,许多基金同时重仓多只白酒股,它们相互抱团取暖,不断扎堆并推高股价,进而大幅提升了公募和私募基金的业绩,这显然不同于过去单个基金的孤军奋战、单打独斗,但集中扎堆的后果一定是高风险的。\n2月4日,贵州茅台收于2320.85元,较上日收盘价大涨5.98%,并创出历史新高,盘中最高价为2330元。然而,当天A股三大指数却全线下跌。这是白酒股的集体逆袭?还是基金扎堆抱团、集体“逼空”?难道贵州茅台已成为了A股市场的“逆向”风向标?\n贵州茅台虽然只是一家传统酿酒企业,但它却成为了A股市场的第一高价股和第一大市值股。贵州茅台的股价是否严重泡沫化了?机构之间是否会发生严重分歧而导致集体踩踏事故?其最后结果也许仍是散户接盘、基民买单。我相信,机构和散户都在押赌:贵州茅台还能走多远?\n传统企业股票究竟应如何估值定价?传统的市净率和市盈率定价还有效吗?\n贵州茅台是中国最知名的白酒酿造企业。截至2019年底,贵州国资委全资持有中国贵州茅台酒厂(集团)有限责任公司(下称“茅台集团”)100%的股权,而茅台集团则持有上市公司——贵州茅台酒股份有限公司58%的股权。贵州茅台是一家地方国有企业。\n贵州国有资本运营有限责任公司(下称“贵州国资公司”)为贵州金融控股集团有限责任公司(贵州贵民投资集团有限责任公司)(下称“贵州金控集团”)的全资子公司。\n2019年12月25日,根据贵州省国资委要求,茅台集团计划通过无偿划转的方式,将其持有的贵州茅台5024万股(占总股本4%)转让给贵州国资公司,该计划事项于2019年最后一天完成。\n截至2020年12月23日,茅台集团持有上市公司7.29亿股股份,占其总股本的58.00%;贵州国资公司和贵州金控集团合计持有贵州茅台1207万股股份,占其总股本的0.96%,其中,贵州国资公司持有贵州茅台858.39万股股份,占其总股本的0.68%,贵州金控集团持有贵州茅台股份348.72万股,占其总股本的0.28%。\n本次无偿划转完成后,茅台集团将持有贵州茅台6.78亿股股份,占该公司总股本的54.00%,贵州茅台控股股东及实际控制人未发生变更;贵州国资公司和贵州金控集团合计持有贵州茅台股份占比则从0.96%增至4.96%。\n相较于2019年时的股权划转,尽管两者划转的股权数量和占总股本比重一样,但对应的市值却增加了不少。2019年12月25日,5024万股茅台股份市值为587.48亿元,到2020年12月25日,其对应市值达到915.44亿元。\n与之对应的是贵州茅台的股价变动,从2019年12月27日收盘的1149.58元/股增至2020年12月25日收盘的1830元/股,增幅达到59.2%。\n贵州茅台于2001年8月27日股票在上交所挂牌上市,发行价31.39元,发行后总股本仅2.5亿股,IPO净募资20亿元。贵州茅台股票上市首日收盘价为35.55元,首日收盘涨幅仅为13.25%,总市值仅为88.8亿元,流通股仅为7150万股,是标准的“袖珍”小盘股。\n截至2020年9月底,贵州茅台总股本扩张为12.56亿股,20年间总股本扩张为5倍,目前最高总市值为2.93万亿元,20年间贵州茅台总市值扩张了近330倍,其股价在不复权的情况下累计上涨了近65倍!2020年以来,贵州茅台股价从最低960元一路狂奔至最高2330元,不到一年时间股价暴涨了143%!\n贵州茅台的营收虽不及格力电器的1/2,但其净利润却接近格力电器2倍;同样,贵州茅台的营收不及宝钢股份的1/3,但其净利润却接近宝钢股份的4倍。这足以表明贵州茅台作为一家传统酿酒企业,其行业“暴利”能力远超先进制造业企业。\n尽管如此,仍有机构和庄家高调宣称,贵州茅台2000元的股价仍然偏低,还有较大上涨空间,不知这些人的底气和自信来自何方?\n贵州茅台股票的合理价位究竟在哪里?如何估值更靠谱?我们不妨参考一下世界第一高价股:伯克希尔,最新股价每股35.19万美元。\n世界第一高价股,当属股神巴菲特控股的公司——伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway,下称“伯克希尔”),它由巴菲特创建于1956年,唯一总部位于美国内布拉斯加州奥玛哈,旗下掌管多家子公司,主营保险业务,包括财产险、灾害险、意外险、再保险及特殊类保险。伯克希尔过去25年来,以日益雄厚的资本及微乎其微的负债,平均每年为股东创造25%以上的价值成长。\n不过,值得特别说明的是,伯克希尔一直坚持不分红、不送股、不拆股,现在购买一手伯克希尔需要至少3500万美元,一般的散户是没有资格购买的。对此,巴菲特曾解释过:他需要的是像比尔·盖茨这样的合作伙伴和机构投资者,他不希望太多中小投资者参与进来。他的股东收益不是靠分红和送股,而是完全依赖业绩支撑的股价上涨收益。不过,贵州茅台不是这样的,它既送股,又分红,而且并不拒绝散户投资者。\n\n从上表中数据可以发现两个明显的差距:同为传统产业,伯克希尔尽管股价高达35万美元/股,但其市净率仅为1.34倍,而贵州茅台的市净率却高达19.67倍;同样,伯克希尔市盈率仅为7.12倍,而贵州茅台市盈率却高达70.75倍。\n假设将伯克希尔总股本扩大1000倍后,其总股本为15.63亿股,正好与贵州茅台总股本(12.56亿股)大体相当,则两者股价比较起来就会更直观!我们再来观察下表,你很快就可以比较贵州茅台高估的程度。\n\n(作者系武汉科技大学金融证券研究所所长)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600519":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319777611,"gmtCreate":1611630270933,"gmtModify":1703751749720,"author":{"id":"3571191060083577","authorId":"3571191060083577","name":"古凡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6eb904192a43403d640ebee501cf63b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571191060083577","idStr":"3571191060083577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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