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Ddazes
Ddazes
·
2021-07-26
[Cool] [Smile]
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Ddazes
Ddazes
·
2021-06-29
[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
Amazon Stock: Get Ready For Earnings Season<blockquote>亚马逊股票:为财报季做好准备</blockquote>
The countdown to Amazon’s earnings day has begun. The Amazon Maven begins its preview by looking at
Amazon Stock: Get Ready For Earnings Season<blockquote>亚马逊股票:为财报季做好准备</blockquote>
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Ddazes
Ddazes
·
2021-06-28
[Eye] [Eye]
Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote>
Summary Starbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe. The company
Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote>
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Ddazes
Ddazes
·
2021-06-27
Waiting for a good price to enter
Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊:好库存,不好价格</blockquote>
Summary Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i
Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊:好库存,不好价格</blockquote>
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Ddazes
Ddazes
·
2021-06-25
[Cool] [Cool]
Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote>
Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan St
Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote>
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Ddazes
Ddazes
·
2021-06-24
[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
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Ddazes
Ddazes
·
2021-06-21
Jingle bells 🎶
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Ddazes
Ddazes
·
2021-06-21
Nike!
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Ddazes
Ddazes
·
2021-06-19
[Surprised]
Dow drops 400 points at the open, extending losses in its worst week since January<blockquote>道琼斯指数开盘下跌400点,延续1月份以来最糟糕的一周跌幅</blockquote>
U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week sinc
Dow drops 400 points at the open, extending losses in its worst week since January<blockquote>道琼斯指数开盘下跌400点,延续1月份以来最糟糕的一周跌幅</blockquote>
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Ddazes
Ddazes
·
2021-06-17
[Lovely] [Sly]
Vaccine sector stocks gained in pre-market trading.<blockquote>疫苗板块股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote>
Vaccine sector stocks gained in pre-market trading. Novavax,Moderna and BioNTech shares were up bewt
Vaccine sector stocks gained in pre-market trading.<blockquote>疫苗板块股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote>
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[Smile] ","listText":"[Cool] [Smile] ","text":"[Cool] [Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800037464","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159431868,"gmtCreate":1624976321954,"gmtModify":1633946283702,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] ","listText":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] ","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159431868","repostId":"1178728317","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178728317","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624973015,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178728317?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 21:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Stock: Get Ready For Earnings Season<blockquote>亚马逊股票:为财报季做好准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178728317","media":"TheStreet","summary":"The countdown to Amazon’s earnings day has begun. The Amazon Maven begins its preview by looking at ","content":"<p>The countdown to Amazon’s earnings day has begun. The Amazon Maven begins its preview by looking at analyst consensus and historical stock price behavior prior to and after the event.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊财报日已经进入倒计时。Amazon Maven通过查看分析师共识和事件前后的历史股价行为来开始预览。</blockquote></p><p> June is ending along with the second calendar quarter of 2021. Amazon stock(<b>AMZN</b>) is staring at a couple of potential catalysts in July, with earnings season being the most obvious of them.</p><p><blockquote>6月和2021年第二季度一起结束。亚马逊股票(<b>AMZN</b>)正在关注7月份的几个潜在催化剂,其中财报季是其中最明显的。</blockquote></p><p> The Amazon Maven will cover the cloud and e-commerce giant’s earnings event in detail via live blog – dates are yet to be announced by Amazon. In the meantime, our channel will preview second quarter earnings in the next few weeks, starting with a high-level view of consensus expectations.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊Maven将通过实时博客详细报道这家云和电子商务巨头的财报活动——亚马逊尚未宣布日期。与此同时,我们的频道将在未来几周内预览第二季度收益,首先是对共识预期的高层看法。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1be54c5dedec1015d3b333406eaa9cb\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"858\"><span>Figure 1; Amazon's HQ in Seattle, WA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1;亚马逊总部位于华盛顿州西雅图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What Wall Street expects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街的期望</b></blockquote></p><p> For second quarter 2021, it helps to think first about last year’s numbers. As the COVID-19 crisis was still in its early stages, Amazon delivered astounding revenue growth of 40% in second quarter of 2020, the highest since 2018. EPS of over $10 beat consensus by the widest margin ever.</p><p><blockquote>对于2021年第二季度,首先考虑去年的数字会有所帮助。由于COVID-19危机仍处于早期阶段,亚马逊在2020年第二季度实现了40%的惊人收入增长,为2018年以来的最高水平。每股收益超过10美元,以有史以来最大的幅度超出了市场预期。</blockquote></p><p> When most businesses suffered due to the shutdown of the global economies, Amazon benefited in second quarter 2020 from the trends in digital consumption and cloud adoption acceleration. This year, the Seattle-based company will be facing an uphill battle to produce top- and bottom-line growth.</p><p><blockquote>当大多数企业因全球经济关闭而遭受损失时,亚马逊在2020年第二季度受益于数字消费和云采用加速的趋势。今年,这家总部位于西雅图的公司将面临一场实现营收和利润增长的艰苦战斗。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Wall Street is betting on revenue increase of nearly 30% this time – see table below. On earnings per share, $12.22 would represent an increase of nearly 20%. The earnings consensus climbed by over one dollar since two months ago, probably in anticipation for another successful Amazon Prime Day event.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此,华尔街仍押注这次收入将增长近30%——见下表。每股收益为12.22美元,将增长近20%。自两个月前以来,盈利共识攀升了1美元以上,可能是因为预期亚马逊Prime Day活动将再次取得成功。</blockquote></p><p> In the next few weeks, the Amazon Maven will dig deeper into what are likely to be the most hotly debated topics of conversation on earnings day.</p><p><blockquote>在接下来的几周内,亚马逊专家将更深入地挖掘财报日最热门的话题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/040bd5f518765adf07c85cd4a5955392\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"424\"><span>Figure 2: AMZN's earnings and revenues estimates.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2:AMZN的盈利和收入预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon stock around earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊股票围绕盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> Next, let’s look at the performance of Amazon stock around earnings dates to figure out whether it might make sense to buy AMZN ahead of it. The graph below shows three bars: the median two-week return of Amazon stock (1) before earnings, (2) after earnings, and (3) on any given day.</p><p><blockquote>接下来,让我们看看亚马逊股票在财报日期前后的表现,以确定在财报日期之前购买亚马逊是否有意义。下图显示了三个条形图:亚马逊股票的两周回报率中位数(1)财报前、(2)财报后以及(3)任何一天。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past 20 earnings seasons, Amazon share price increased by a median 2.6% prior to the event – much better than the 0.1% following earnings day. The consistency is also worth noting: the stock produced positive two-week returns<i>ahead</i>of earnings 80% of the time vs. only half the time<i>after</i>earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在过去20个财报季中,亚马逊股价在活动前上涨了2.6%,远好于财报日后的0.1%。一致性也值得注意:该股两周产生正回报<i>提前</i>80%的时间盈利,而只有一半的时间盈利<i>之后</i>收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e360e6fb7b2688f235851e032bd4615a\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"411\"><span>Figure 3: Median 2-week returns, earnings vs. non-earnings.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3:两周回报率中位数,盈利与非盈利。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The data seems consistent with the idea of “buying the rumor, selling the news”. In other words, it is plausible that demand for AMZN shares rises ahead of the quarterly report, which has often exceeded analysts’ expectations. Once the numbers are in, investors proceed to lock in gains.</p><p><blockquote>数据似乎与“买谣言,卖消息”的思路一致。换句话说,对亚马逊股票的需求在季度报告发布之前上升是合理的,这往往超出了分析师的预期。一旦数据出来,投资者就会开始锁定收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock: Get Ready For Earnings Season<blockquote>亚马逊股票:为财报季做好准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock: Get Ready For Earnings Season<blockquote>亚马逊股票:为财报季做好准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 21:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The countdown to Amazon’s earnings day has begun. The Amazon Maven begins its preview by looking at analyst consensus and historical stock price behavior prior to and after the event.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊财报日已经进入倒计时。Amazon Maven通过查看分析师共识和事件前后的历史股价行为来开始预览。</blockquote></p><p> June is ending along with the second calendar quarter of 2021. Amazon stock(<b>AMZN</b>) is staring at a couple of potential catalysts in July, with earnings season being the most obvious of them.</p><p><blockquote>6月和2021年第二季度一起结束。亚马逊股票(<b>AMZN</b>)正在关注7月份的几个潜在催化剂,其中财报季是其中最明显的。</blockquote></p><p> The Amazon Maven will cover the cloud and e-commerce giant’s earnings event in detail via live blog – dates are yet to be announced by Amazon. In the meantime, our channel will preview second quarter earnings in the next few weeks, starting with a high-level view of consensus expectations.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊Maven将通过实时博客详细报道这家云和电子商务巨头的财报活动——亚马逊尚未宣布日期。与此同时,我们的频道将在未来几周内预览第二季度收益,首先是对共识预期的高层看法。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1be54c5dedec1015d3b333406eaa9cb\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"858\"><span>Figure 1; Amazon's HQ in Seattle, WA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1;亚马逊总部位于华盛顿州西雅图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What Wall Street expects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街的期望</b></blockquote></p><p> For second quarter 2021, it helps to think first about last year’s numbers. As the COVID-19 crisis was still in its early stages, Amazon delivered astounding revenue growth of 40% in second quarter of 2020, the highest since 2018. EPS of over $10 beat consensus by the widest margin ever.</p><p><blockquote>对于2021年第二季度,首先考虑去年的数字会有所帮助。由于COVID-19危机仍处于早期阶段,亚马逊在2020年第二季度实现了40%的惊人收入增长,为2018年以来的最高水平。每股收益超过10美元,以有史以来最大的幅度超出了市场预期。</blockquote></p><p> When most businesses suffered due to the shutdown of the global economies, Amazon benefited in second quarter 2020 from the trends in digital consumption and cloud adoption acceleration. This year, the Seattle-based company will be facing an uphill battle to produce top- and bottom-line growth.</p><p><blockquote>当大多数企业因全球经济关闭而遭受损失时,亚马逊在2020年第二季度受益于数字消费和云采用加速的趋势。今年,这家总部位于西雅图的公司将面临一场实现营收和利润增长的艰苦战斗。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Wall Street is betting on revenue increase of nearly 30% this time – see table below. On earnings per share, $12.22 would represent an increase of nearly 20%. The earnings consensus climbed by over one dollar since two months ago, probably in anticipation for another successful Amazon Prime Day event.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此,华尔街仍押注这次收入将增长近30%——见下表。每股收益为12.22美元,将增长近20%。自两个月前以来,盈利共识攀升了1美元以上,可能是因为预期亚马逊Prime Day活动将再次取得成功。</blockquote></p><p> In the next few weeks, the Amazon Maven will dig deeper into what are likely to be the most hotly debated topics of conversation on earnings day.</p><p><blockquote>在接下来的几周内,亚马逊专家将更深入地挖掘财报日最热门的话题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/040bd5f518765adf07c85cd4a5955392\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"424\"><span>Figure 2: AMZN's earnings and revenues estimates.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2:AMZN的盈利和收入预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon stock around earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊股票围绕盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> Next, let’s look at the performance of Amazon stock around earnings dates to figure out whether it might make sense to buy AMZN ahead of it. The graph below shows three bars: the median two-week return of Amazon stock (1) before earnings, (2) after earnings, and (3) on any given day.</p><p><blockquote>接下来,让我们看看亚马逊股票在财报日期前后的表现,以确定在财报日期之前购买亚马逊是否有意义。下图显示了三个条形图:亚马逊股票的两周回报率中位数(1)财报前、(2)财报后以及(3)任何一天。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past 20 earnings seasons, Amazon share price increased by a median 2.6% prior to the event – much better than the 0.1% following earnings day. The consistency is also worth noting: the stock produced positive two-week returns<i>ahead</i>of earnings 80% of the time vs. only half the time<i>after</i>earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在过去20个财报季中,亚马逊股价在活动前上涨了2.6%,远好于财报日后的0.1%。一致性也值得注意:该股两周产生正回报<i>提前</i>80%的时间盈利,而只有一半的时间盈利<i>之后</i>收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e360e6fb7b2688f235851e032bd4615a\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"411\"><span>Figure 3: Median 2-week returns, earnings vs. non-earnings.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3:两周回报率中位数,盈利与非盈利。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The data seems consistent with the idea of “buying the rumor, selling the news”. In other words, it is plausible that demand for AMZN shares rises ahead of the quarterly report, which has often exceeded analysts’ expectations. Once the numbers are in, investors proceed to lock in gains.</p><p><blockquote>数据似乎与“买谣言,卖消息”的思路一致。换句话说,对亚马逊股票的需求在季度报告发布之前上升是合理的,这往往超出了分析师的预期。一旦数据出来,投资者就会开始锁定收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/news/amazon-stock-get-ready-for-earnings-season\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/news/amazon-stock-get-ready-for-earnings-season","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178728317","content_text":"The countdown to Amazon’s earnings day has begun. The Amazon Maven begins its preview by looking at analyst consensus and historical stock price behavior prior to and after the event.\nJune is ending along with the second calendar quarter of 2021. Amazon stock(AMZN) is staring at a couple of potential catalysts in July, with earnings season being the most obvious of them.\nThe Amazon Maven will cover the cloud and e-commerce giant’s earnings event in detail via live blog – dates are yet to be announced by Amazon. In the meantime, our channel will preview second quarter earnings in the next few weeks, starting with a high-level view of consensus expectations.\nFigure 1; Amazon's HQ in Seattle, WA.\nWhat Wall Street expects\nFor second quarter 2021, it helps to think first about last year’s numbers. As the COVID-19 crisis was still in its early stages, Amazon delivered astounding revenue growth of 40% in second quarter of 2020, the highest since 2018. EPS of over $10 beat consensus by the widest margin ever.\nWhen most businesses suffered due to the shutdown of the global economies, Amazon benefited in second quarter 2020 from the trends in digital consumption and cloud adoption acceleration. This year, the Seattle-based company will be facing an uphill battle to produce top- and bottom-line growth.\nStill, Wall Street is betting on revenue increase of nearly 30% this time – see table below. On earnings per share, $12.22 would represent an increase of nearly 20%. The earnings consensus climbed by over one dollar since two months ago, probably in anticipation for another successful Amazon Prime Day event.\nIn the next few weeks, the Amazon Maven will dig deeper into what are likely to be the most hotly debated topics of conversation on earnings day.\nFigure 2: AMZN's earnings and revenues estimates.\nAmazon stock around earnings\nNext, let’s look at the performance of Amazon stock around earnings dates to figure out whether it might make sense to buy AMZN ahead of it. The graph below shows three bars: the median two-week return of Amazon stock (1) before earnings, (2) after earnings, and (3) on any given day.\nOver the past 20 earnings seasons, Amazon share price increased by a median 2.6% prior to the event – much better than the 0.1% following earnings day. The consistency is also worth noting: the stock produced positive two-week returnsaheadof earnings 80% of the time vs. only half the timeafterearnings.\nFigure 3: Median 2-week returns, earnings vs. non-earnings.\nThe data seems consistent with the idea of “buying the rumor, selling the news”. In other words, it is plausible that demand for AMZN shares rises ahead of the quarterly report, which has often exceeded analysts’ expectations. Once the numbers are in, investors proceed to lock in gains.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150937497,"gmtCreate":1624881312719,"gmtModify":1633947589105,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Eye] [Eye] ","listText":"[Eye] [Eye] ","text":"[Eye] [Eye]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150937497","repostId":"1103137872","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103137872","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624865492,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103137872?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 15:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103137872","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nStarbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.\nThe company","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Starbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.</li> <li>The company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.</li> <li>Even if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860ea0c3c4fcf2d5047e8c0a528096df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1021\"><span>mysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>星巴克仍然是全球领先的全球咖啡特许经营店。</li><li>该公司受到了疫情的沉重打击,但该公司继续开设商店,以推动疫情后的进一步增长。</li><li>即使我假设明年每股收益为4美元,估值看起来也很高,太高了,看不到巨大的吸引力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>mysondanube/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Starbucks (SBUX)</b> has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>星巴克(SBUX)</b>至少其股价表现相当有弹性,因为尽管经营条件非常具有挑战性,但该业务仍表现良好。这家领先咖啡公司的股价在疫情爆发前达到近100美元的峰值,在最初走低后,股价出现了非常稳定的复苏,目前交易价格为每股113美元,仅比近期和历史高点上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> While 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.</p><p><blockquote>虽然2021年的盈利能力将与2019年持平,增长也以令人信服的方式回归,但我仍然认为,尽管特许经营的质量无可争议,但估值太高,看不到任何吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pandemic - A Hit, And Savior</b></p><p><blockquote><b>流行病——大受欢迎,也是救世主</b></blockquote></p><p> Starbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克很早就认识到了疫情的影响,因为它在中国拥有规模庞大的业务,而且由于疫情比美国和欧洲早几个月爆发,因此很早就感受到了影响。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks's second quarter fiscal results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克第二季度财报(相当于2020年第一季度)销售额下降5%。第三季度业绩显示了疫情的真正影响,销售额下降了38%,因为再多的成本控制也无法维持盈利能力,因为该公司在非常具有挑战性的情况下出现了相当大但同时非常可控的亏损。当时的条件。</blockquote></p><p> On the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>去年许多西方国家夏季重新开业后,收入大幅复苏,本财年最后一个季度仅下降了8%。在惨淡的第二季度业绩之后,全年收入下降了11%,至192亿美元,但盈利遭受的打击要大得多,营业利润下降了60%以上,至略高于15亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.</p><p><blockquote>事实上,几乎所有收入的绝对下降都转化为对营业收入线的一对一影响,包括重组成本上升、折旧费用稳定或略有增加,以及在许多修改和安全措施中商店费用略有增加。</blockquote></p><p> Net debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至本财年末,净债务为115亿美元。该公司在2019财年公布的调整后EBITDA约为60亿美元,但EBITDA数字远接近35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> By the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.</p><p><blockquote>到去年10月公布这些业绩时,股价已经反弹至80多岁,这既转化为基于调整后每股1.17美元利润的高市盈率,也转化为调整后每股2.83美元的高市盈率。即使根据2019年的收益,股价也是30倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Big Recovery</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大复苏</b></blockquote></p><p> At the start of 2021 the company posted first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.</p><p><blockquote>2021年初,该公司公布了本财年第一季度业绩,由于该公司尚未克服疫情的影响,销售额下降了6%以上。该公司重申了全年指引,要求销售额中值为285亿美元,每股收益中值为2.80美元,尽管本日历年有53周,这使得指引假设这一事实会增加10美分。</blockquote></p><p> The second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度业绩显示收入增长8%,随着西方经济体逐渐重新开放,这相当令人欣慰。此外,这并不是一个容易比较的情况,因为2020年第二季度的第二季度收入仅下降了5%,所以我们实际上看到了现在与2019年季度相比的增长。在稳健业绩的支持下,该公司将全年销售指引上调至289亿美元的中点。此外,盈利指引的中点已上调15美分,至每股2.95美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了今年前两个季度相对疲软之后,净债务已降至约100亿美元。今年净利润约为35亿美元,在加上约15亿美元的折旧费用以及数亿美元的利息和税收后,EBITDA应该会达到或超过2019年60亿美元的EBITDA数字。从这个意义上说,杠杆是非常适中的,当然也没什么大不了的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Based on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前每股113美元的股价计算,估值约为今年市盈率的38倍。然而,下半年的市盈率约为每股2美元,这可能意味着明年每股收益有可能跃升至4美元。这种盈利能力将预期市盈率降低至28倍。基于这个数字,倍数仍然很高,因为我意识到这可能需要一年的时间才能实现。</blockquote></p><p> I guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.</p><p><blockquote>我猜上述原因很可能是潘兴广场的阿克曼先生今年早些时候抛售股票的考虑因素。虽然今年每股收益3美元的数字是一致的,而且如果疫情消退,明年每股收益将达到4美元,但我看不到真正的触发因素。</blockquote></p><p> Based on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.</p><p><blockquote>基于这样的盈利能力,我认为这里的估值肯定看起来很满,太满了,我看不到吸引力,尽管我对这个非常高质量的特许经营权的质量和长期潜力毫不怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStarbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 15:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Starbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.</li> <li>The company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.</li> <li>Even if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860ea0c3c4fcf2d5047e8c0a528096df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1021\"><span>mysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>星巴克仍然是全球领先的全球咖啡特许经营店。</li><li>该公司受到了疫情的沉重打击,但该公司继续开设商店,以推动疫情后的进一步增长。</li><li>即使我假设明年每股收益为4美元,估值看起来也很高,太高了,看不到巨大的吸引力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>mysondanube/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Starbucks (SBUX)</b> has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>星巴克(SBUX)</b>至少其股价表现相当有弹性,因为尽管经营条件非常具有挑战性,但该业务仍表现良好。这家领先咖啡公司的股价在疫情爆发前达到近100美元的峰值,在最初走低后,股价出现了非常稳定的复苏,目前交易价格为每股113美元,仅比近期和历史高点上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> While 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.</p><p><blockquote>虽然2021年的盈利能力将与2019年持平,增长也以令人信服的方式回归,但我仍然认为,尽管特许经营的质量无可争议,但估值太高,看不到任何吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pandemic - A Hit, And Savior</b></p><p><blockquote><b>流行病——大受欢迎,也是救世主</b></blockquote></p><p> Starbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克很早就认识到了疫情的影响,因为它在中国拥有规模庞大的业务,而且由于疫情比美国和欧洲早几个月爆发,因此很早就感受到了影响。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks's second quarter fiscal results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克第二季度财报(相当于2020年第一季度)销售额下降5%。第三季度业绩显示了疫情的真正影响,销售额下降了38%,因为再多的成本控制也无法维持盈利能力,因为该公司在非常具有挑战性的情况下出现了相当大但同时非常可控的亏损。当时的条件。</blockquote></p><p> On the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>去年许多西方国家夏季重新开业后,收入大幅复苏,本财年最后一个季度仅下降了8%。在惨淡的第二季度业绩之后,全年收入下降了11%,至192亿美元,但盈利遭受的打击要大得多,营业利润下降了60%以上,至略高于15亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.</p><p><blockquote>事实上,几乎所有收入的绝对下降都转化为对营业收入线的一对一影响,包括重组成本上升、折旧费用稳定或略有增加,以及在许多修改和安全措施中商店费用略有增加。</blockquote></p><p> Net debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至本财年末,净债务为115亿美元。该公司在2019财年公布的调整后EBITDA约为60亿美元,但EBITDA数字远接近35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> By the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.</p><p><blockquote>到去年10月公布这些业绩时,股价已经反弹至80多岁,这既转化为基于调整后每股1.17美元利润的高市盈率,也转化为调整后每股2.83美元的高市盈率。即使根据2019年的收益,股价也是30倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Big Recovery</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大复苏</b></blockquote></p><p> At the start of 2021 the company posted first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.</p><p><blockquote>2021年初,该公司公布了本财年第一季度业绩,由于该公司尚未克服疫情的影响,销售额下降了6%以上。该公司重申了全年指引,要求销售额中值为285亿美元,每股收益中值为2.80美元,尽管本日历年有53周,这使得指引假设这一事实会增加10美分。</blockquote></p><p> The second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度业绩显示收入增长8%,随着西方经济体逐渐重新开放,这相当令人欣慰。此外,这并不是一个容易比较的情况,因为2020年第二季度的第二季度收入仅下降了5%,所以我们实际上看到了现在与2019年季度相比的增长。在稳健业绩的支持下,该公司将全年销售指引上调至289亿美元的中点。此外,盈利指引的中点已上调15美分,至每股2.95美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了今年前两个季度相对疲软之后,净债务已降至约100亿美元。今年净利润约为35亿美元,在加上约15亿美元的折旧费用以及数亿美元的利息和税收后,EBITDA应该会达到或超过2019年60亿美元的EBITDA数字。从这个意义上说,杠杆是非常适中的,当然也没什么大不了的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Based on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前每股113美元的股价计算,估值约为今年市盈率的38倍。然而,下半年的市盈率约为每股2美元,这可能意味着明年每股收益有可能跃升至4美元。这种盈利能力将预期市盈率降低至28倍。基于这个数字,倍数仍然很高,因为我意识到这可能需要一年的时间才能实现。</blockquote></p><p> I guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.</p><p><blockquote>我猜上述原因很可能是潘兴广场的阿克曼先生今年早些时候抛售股票的考虑因素。虽然今年每股收益3美元的数字是一致的,而且如果疫情消退,明年每股收益将达到4美元,但我看不到真正的触发因素。</blockquote></p><p> Based on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.</p><p><blockquote>基于这样的盈利能力,我认为这里的估值肯定看起来很满,太满了,我看不到吸引力,尽管我对这个非常高质量的特许经营权的质量和长期潜力毫不怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436869-starbucks-too-hot-to-handle\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436869-starbucks-too-hot-to-handle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103137872","content_text":"Summary\n\nStarbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.\nThe company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.\nEven if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.\n\nmysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nStarbucks (SBUX) has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.\nWhile 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.\nPandemic - A Hit, And Savior\nStarbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.\nStarbucks's second quarter fiscal results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.\nOn the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.\nIn fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.\nNet debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.\nBy the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.\nA Big Recovery\nAt the start of 2021 the company posted first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.\nThe second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.\nNet debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.\nBased on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.\nI guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.\nBased on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SBUX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124520219,"gmtCreate":1624773664231,"gmtModify":1633948740329,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Waiting for a good price to enter","listText":"Waiting for a good price to enter","text":"Waiting for a good price to enter","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124520219","repostId":"1184001921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184001921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624763737,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184001921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊:好库存,不好价格</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184001921","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li> <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li> <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li> <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新力的公司之一,在电子商务行业和云计算服务领域处于领先地位。</li><li>不幸的是,它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股是一致的。</li><li>本文探讨了亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>今天,根据我的内在价值模型,亚马逊(AMZN)的定价似乎有点过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源:作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章,其中我抨击了苹果(AAPL)或微软(MSFT)等其他热门股票。嗯,我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值,我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中,我将详细介绍我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点,所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的理由,以帮助您在未来进行更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一些重要的事情——我不是亚马逊专家,我很难评估成长型股票。我真的很怀疑我有能力估计一家公司未来的增长。我通过查看过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来做出未来的增长估计。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法近乎“数据外推”,即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推并不好,因为未来与过去不同——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后,我发现这种风格可以很好地获得大致正确的估值。我总是尽量把我的估值定低,因为低买大赚总比高买亏好。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing. Rule 1 Investing This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说:“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全边际</b>意思是买打折的东西....这就是伟大投资的全部秘密。规则1投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值,并寻求以较大的安全边际进行购买。我希望你喜欢,一如既往,我会尽量保持它的干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的钱从哪里来?亚马逊分为3个部分:北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为两个高增长行业(电子商务和云计算)的市场领导者,亚马逊未来可能会继续实现高增长。在本节中,我研究了亚马逊每个部门过去的收入增长和营业利润率,并以此做出保守的未来预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来,我把每个部门的数字加起来,对整个公司进行预测。以下是亚马逊北美业务的概况。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降,营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓,因为我认为亚马逊在北美的收入必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是,我确实认为亚马逊在5年内将收入从2000亿美元增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常令人难以置信的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊国际部门的概况:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门,我预计年收入将增长20%,营业利润率也将提高。我认为营业利润率将逐渐提高,直到利润率达到与亚马逊在美国市场类似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分,AWS是:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源:作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计AWS细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预测25-30%的年收入增长率,因为云计算有很大的增长空间,根据研究和市场,云计算行业应该以17.5%的CAGR增长,直到2025年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外,我预计营业利润率为28%,因为AWS业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件,该公司能够通过将成本分摊给更多的人来获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率可能会超过28%,因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测加在一起有助于我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的?你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣,这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么,以及它未来可能投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源:作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知,亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行了股票——但从现金流量表来看,他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金,也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p> In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration. <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i> Source:2020 10-K page 60, <i>emphasis added</i> But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月,董事会批准了一项回购最多50亿美元普通股的计划,没有固定到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>资料来源:2020 10-K第60页,<i>增加了强调</i>但就我们而言,这段报价表明亚马逊在过去3年中没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱,这很好,因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是,亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲钱。自2016年以来,他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元,从2016年底的约260亿美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金,因此我们可以看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购,或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先,我对亚马逊使用了7.7%的贴现率,因为这是我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。我假设股权成本为8%,而亚马逊在过去10年中的平均税率约为20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源:作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我今天用DCF模型找到了亚马逊的价值。在下面的模型中,您可以在顶部2个红框中看到,我预计该公司的收入增长将较低,营业利润率将强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计,到2025年,亚马逊的收入将超过8500亿美元。如果你仔细想想,这绝对是疯狂的,但根据估计的收入增长,这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前,沃尔玛(纽约证券交易所股票代码:WMT)以约550B美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三,约为3900亿美元。5年后,亚马逊很可能成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源:作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部,您可以看到有一个红色框,显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司收入中有多少将成为业务利润,不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石盒子中,我应用了贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源:作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今,亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估。该模型预测该股票可能被高估约15%,如果我们今天投资,我们预计未来5年的年回报率约为5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我并不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西,我只是不认为亚马逊股票在当前价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部,我提出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价格”。这背后的想法是,AMZN股票越便宜,我们可以预期的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计,每股2,200美元的年回报率约为15%,每股1,700美元的年回报率约为22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但当股票交易价格接近3,500美元时,将买入价格定为2,000美元似乎不合理吗?”有一点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能暴跌至2,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是,如果我们有耐心,我们可能有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月,亚马逊的交易价格低于1,900美元(我希望当时买了一些)。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今,亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估,因为它似乎在未来5年内提供约5%的年回报率。这并不意味着如果您是长期持有者,您应该出售亚马逊,因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果你正在寻找下一只投资股票,亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果您关注亚马逊已经有一段时间了,并且正在寻求进入,那么现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资该股票,我们仍然可以看到亚马逊成为世界上收入最多的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢您的阅读,我希望您今天休息得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊:好库存,不好价格</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊:好库存,不好价格</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li> <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li> <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li> <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新力的公司之一,在电子商务行业和云计算服务领域处于领先地位。</li><li>不幸的是,它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股是一致的。</li><li>本文探讨了亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>今天,根据我的内在价值模型,亚马逊(AMZN)的定价似乎有点过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源:作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章,其中我抨击了苹果(AAPL)或微软(MSFT)等其他热门股票。嗯,我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值,我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中,我将详细介绍我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点,所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的理由,以帮助您在未来进行更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一些重要的事情——我不是亚马逊专家,我很难评估成长型股票。我真的很怀疑我有能力估计一家公司未来的增长。我通过查看过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来做出未来的增长估计。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法近乎“数据外推”,即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推并不好,因为未来与过去不同——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后,我发现这种风格可以很好地获得大致正确的估值。我总是尽量把我的估值定低,因为低买大赚总比高买亏好。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing. Rule 1 Investing This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说:“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全边际</b>意思是买打折的东西....这就是伟大投资的全部秘密。规则1投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值,并寻求以较大的安全边际进行购买。我希望你喜欢,一如既往,我会尽量保持它的干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的钱从哪里来?亚马逊分为3个部分:北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为两个高增长行业(电子商务和云计算)的市场领导者,亚马逊未来可能会继续实现高增长。在本节中,我研究了亚马逊每个部门过去的收入增长和营业利润率,并以此做出保守的未来预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来,我把每个部门的数字加起来,对整个公司进行预测。以下是亚马逊北美业务的概况。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降,营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓,因为我认为亚马逊在北美的收入必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是,我确实认为亚马逊在5年内将收入从2000亿美元增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常令人难以置信的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊国际部门的概况:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门,我预计年收入将增长20%,营业利润率也将提高。我认为营业利润率将逐渐提高,直到利润率达到与亚马逊在美国市场类似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分,AWS是:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源:作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计AWS细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预测25-30%的年收入增长率,因为云计算有很大的增长空间,根据研究和市场,云计算行业应该以17.5%的CAGR增长,直到2025年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外,我预计营业利润率为28%,因为AWS业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件,该公司能够通过将成本分摊给更多的人来获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率可能会超过28%,因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测加在一起有助于我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的?你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣,这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么,以及它未来可能投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源:作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知,亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行了股票——但从现金流量表来看,他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金,也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p> In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration. <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i> Source:2020 10-K page 60, <i>emphasis added</i> But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月,董事会批准了一项回购最多50亿美元普通股的计划,没有固定到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>资料来源:2020 10-K第60页,<i>增加了强调</i>但就我们而言,这段报价表明亚马逊在过去3年中没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱,这很好,因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是,亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲钱。自2016年以来,他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元,从2016年底的约260亿美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金,因此我们可以看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购,或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先,我对亚马逊使用了7.7%的贴现率,因为这是我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。我假设股权成本为8%,而亚马逊在过去10年中的平均税率约为20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源:作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我今天用DCF模型找到了亚马逊的价值。在下面的模型中,您可以在顶部2个红框中看到,我预计该公司的收入增长将较低,营业利润率将强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计,到2025年,亚马逊的收入将超过8500亿美元。如果你仔细想想,这绝对是疯狂的,但根据估计的收入增长,这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前,沃尔玛(纽约证券交易所股票代码:WMT)以约550B美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三,约为3900亿美元。5年后,亚马逊很可能成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源:作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部,您可以看到有一个红色框,显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司收入中有多少将成为业务利润,不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石盒子中,我应用了贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源:作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今,亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估。该模型预测该股票可能被高估约15%,如果我们今天投资,我们预计未来5年的年回报率约为5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我并不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西,我只是不认为亚马逊股票在当前价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部,我提出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价格”。这背后的想法是,AMZN股票越便宜,我们可以预期的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计,每股2,200美元的年回报率约为15%,每股1,700美元的年回报率约为22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但当股票交易价格接近3,500美元时,将买入价格定为2,000美元似乎不合理吗?”有一点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能暴跌至2,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是,如果我们有耐心,我们可能有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月,亚马逊的交易价格低于1,900美元(我希望当时买了一些)。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今,亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估,因为它似乎在未来5年内提供约5%的年回报率。这并不意味着如果您是长期持有者,您应该出售亚马逊,因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果你正在寻找下一只投资股票,亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果您关注亚马逊已经有一段时间了,并且正在寻求进入,那么现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资该股票,我们仍然可以看到亚马逊成为世界上收入最多的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢您的阅读,我希望您今天休息得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184001921","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.\nThis article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.\nI hope you enjoy.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nToday, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.\nSource: Author\nYou might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.\nIn this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.\nSomething important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.\nThis method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.\nBut after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.\n\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n margin of safety.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n\n\n Rule 1 Investing\n\nThis model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.\nBusiness Model\nWhere does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.\nAs a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.\nAnd later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nI projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.\nHopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.\nHere's a look at Amazon's International segment:\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nFor Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.\nAnd for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:\nSource: Author\nAWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.\nAdditionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.\nThese projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.\nCapital Allocation\nHow does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.\nSource: Author\nThe biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.\n\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.\n\n\n Source:2020 10-K page 60,\n emphasis added\n\nBut for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.\nAmazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.\nAmazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.\nValuation\nFirst, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.\nSource: Author\nI used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.\nThis model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.\nRight now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.\nSource: Author\nDown at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.\nSource: Author\nToday, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.\nThese estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.\nDown at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.\nThe model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.\n\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.\nBut the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.\nRecap\nToday, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.\nBut if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.\nEven if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.\nThank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122836187,"gmtCreate":1624609754249,"gmtModify":1633950574993,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Cool] [Cool] ","listText":"[Cool] [Cool] ","text":"[Cool] [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122836187","repostId":"1136202921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136202921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624591759,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136202921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136202921","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan St","content":"<p><div> Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant. The Apple Analyst:Katy ...</p><p><blockquote><div>苹果公司(纳斯达克股票代码:AAPL)的股价今年迄今表现低迷,摩根士丹利的一位分析师认为这家科技巨头的股票存在长期买入机会。苹果分析师:凯蒂...</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant. The Apple Analyst:Katy ...</p><p><blockquote><div>苹果公司(纳斯达克股票代码:AAPL)的股价今年迄今表现低迷,摩根士丹利的一位分析师认为这家科技巨头的股票存在长期买入机会。苹果分析师:凯蒂...</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136202921","content_text":"Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant.\nThe Apple Analyst:Katy Huberty reiterated an Overweight rating on Apple with a $162 price target.\nThe Apple Takeaways:The incoming call volume on Apple shares is at a low amid investor concerns over a seasonally low period in the iPhone cycle,regulatory risk and difficult comps relative to the COVID-19-driven work-from-home and study-from-home demand, Huberty said in a note.\nAdditionally, investors fear a more evolutionary iPhone s-cycle will lead to extended iPhone replacement cycles, the analyst said.\nRevenues will likely decline in 2022, increasing the likelihood of negative estimate revisions, she said.\n\"We recognize these risks but have a more positive outlook,\" Huberty said.\nThe dominant bear case narrative now is the iPhone entering a more modest upgrade or \"s\" cycle — a period when iPhone revenue historically declined at a double-digit rate, the analyst said. She forecast a low risk of similar iPhone revenue decline next year.\nThis is due to the longer period of iPhone replacement cycle relative to the past, an expansion to Apple's trade-in, financing and installment offers and 5G adoption, which is still in its nascent stage, Huberty said.\n\"Taken together, these factors build confidence that the iPhone 13 cycle will not look like past s-cycles, which is reflected in our updated FY22 iPhone forecast of 231M units,\" the analyst said.\nThe June quarter will be stronger than originally expected, as iPhone and iPad builds are tracking ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimate, she said.\nHuberty raised her June quarter revenue and EPS estimates by 3%-5%.\nApple's catalyst path is more back-end loaded this year, the analyst said.\nThe company can drive low-teens annual revenue growth and high-teens annual EPS growth between fiscal years 2020 and 2023, she said.\n\"At24xFV/FCF, we believe the current valuation presents a good long-term buying opportunity.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128698907,"gmtCreate":1624512534509,"gmtModify":1634005007875,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] ","listText":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] ","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128698907","repostId":"1119538009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167314772,"gmtCreate":1624247007696,"gmtModify":1634008929349,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Jingle bells 🎶","listText":"Jingle bells 🎶","text":"Jingle bells 🎶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167314772","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167314957,"gmtCreate":1624246963079,"gmtModify":1634008930187,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nike!","listText":"Nike!","text":"Nike!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167314957","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162548745,"gmtCreate":1624069301287,"gmtModify":1634011137378,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Surprised] ","listText":"[Surprised] ","text":"[Surprised]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162548745","repostId":"1118271544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118271544","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624023029,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118271544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow drops 400 points at the open, extending losses in its worst week since January<blockquote>道琼斯指数开盘下跌400点,延续1月份以来最糟糕的一周跌幅</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118271544","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week sinc","content":"<p>U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week since January, as bank shares led the market sell-off after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周五下跌,道琼斯工业平均指数有望创下1月份以来最糟糕的一周,美联储最新政策更新后,银行股领跌市场。</blockquote></p><p> The blue-chip average dropped 400 points, bringing its week-to-date losses to 2.8% The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, pushing its loss this week to more than 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>蓝筹股平均指数下跌400点,本周迄今跌幅达到2.8%。标普500下跌0.8%,本周跌幅超过1%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks extended their losses asSt. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said on CNBCthat it was natural for the Fed to tilt a little \"hawkish\" this week and that the first rate increase from the central bank would likely come in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>股市扩大跌幅。路易斯联储主席Jim Bullard在CNBC上表示,美联储本周倾向于稍微“鹰派”是很自然的,央行首次加息可能会在2022年进行。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street registered losses as the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon added two rate hikes to its 2023 forecast and increased its inflation projection for the year.</p><p><blockquote>周三下午,美联储在2023年预测中增加了两次加息,并上调了今年的通胀预测,华尔街出现下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The decline in stocks came as the Fed's actions caused a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year, fell. The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.</p><p><blockquote>股市下跌之际,美联储的行动导致所谓的国债收益率曲线急剧变平,2年期国债等短期国债收益率上升,而基准10年期国债等长期国债收益率下降。长期债券的回落反映了对经济增长的不太乐观,而短端收益率的跃升则显示了对美联储加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> This phenomenon is hurting bank stocks particularly as bank earnings could take a hit when the spread between short-term and long-term rates narrows. Goldman Sachs shares fell more than 1% Friday, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also traded in the red.</p><p><blockquote>这种现象正在损害银行股,特别是当短期和长期利率之间的利差缩小时,银行盈利可能会受到打击。高盛股价周五下跌超过1%,摩根大通和摩根士丹利也出现亏损。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示,官员们已经讨论了缩减债券购买,并将在某个时候开始放缓资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> \"Investors may be interpreting the Fed's hawkish tilt Wednesday as a sign that an extended US post-pandemic economic expansion may be a bit harder to achieve in a potentially emerging environment of less accommodative monetary policy,\" said Goldman Sachs' Chris Hussey in a note.</p><p><blockquote>高盛(Goldman Sachs)的克里斯·赫西(Chris Hussey)在一份报告中表示:“投资者可能将美联储周三的鹰派倾向解读为一个迹象,表明在可能出现的货币政策不太宽松的环境下,美国大流行后经济扩张可能更难实现。”</blockquote></p><p> Most commodities prices rebounded a bit on Friday followingsharp declines this week as China attempts to cool rising prices and the U.S. dollar strengthens. Futures prices for copper, gold, and platinum rebounded Friday, but were still down big for the week.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国试图冷却不断上涨的物价和美元走强,大多数大宗商品价格在本周大幅下跌后,周五略有反弹。铜、黄金和铂的期货价格周五反弹,但本周仍大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Chip stocks, which have had a good week, looked set to continue their run on Friday with shares of Nvidia higher by about 1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周表现良好的芯片股周五似乎将继续上涨,英伟达股价上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe shares gained about 3% after earnings and revenue topped estimates.</p><p><blockquote>盈利和收入超出预期后,Adobe股价上涨约3%。</blockquote></p><p> Friday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.</p><p><blockquote>周五也恰逢季度“四重巫术”,指数和股票的期权和期货到期。许多人预计,鉴于这一事件,交易将更加波动。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow drops 400 points at the open, extending losses in its worst week since January<blockquote>道琼斯指数开盘下跌400点,延续1月份以来最糟糕的一周跌幅</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow drops 400 points at the open, extending losses in its worst week since January<blockquote>道琼斯指数开盘下跌400点,延续1月份以来最糟糕的一周跌幅</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week since January, as bank shares led the market sell-off after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周五下跌,道琼斯工业平均指数有望创下1月份以来最糟糕的一周,美联储最新政策更新后,银行股领跌市场。</blockquote></p><p> The blue-chip average dropped 400 points, bringing its week-to-date losses to 2.8% The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, pushing its loss this week to more than 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>蓝筹股平均指数下跌400点,本周迄今跌幅达到2.8%。标普500下跌0.8%,本周跌幅超过1%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks extended their losses asSt. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said on CNBCthat it was natural for the Fed to tilt a little \"hawkish\" this week and that the first rate increase from the central bank would likely come in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>股市扩大跌幅。路易斯联储主席Jim Bullard在CNBC上表示,美联储本周倾向于稍微“鹰派”是很自然的,央行首次加息可能会在2022年进行。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street registered losses as the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon added two rate hikes to its 2023 forecast and increased its inflation projection for the year.</p><p><blockquote>周三下午,美联储在2023年预测中增加了两次加息,并上调了今年的通胀预测,华尔街出现下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The decline in stocks came as the Fed's actions caused a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year, fell. The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.</p><p><blockquote>股市下跌之际,美联储的行动导致所谓的国债收益率曲线急剧变平,2年期国债等短期国债收益率上升,而基准10年期国债等长期国债收益率下降。长期债券的回落反映了对经济增长的不太乐观,而短端收益率的跃升则显示了对美联储加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> This phenomenon is hurting bank stocks particularly as bank earnings could take a hit when the spread between short-term and long-term rates narrows. Goldman Sachs shares fell more than 1% Friday, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also traded in the red.</p><p><blockquote>这种现象正在损害银行股,特别是当短期和长期利率之间的利差缩小时,银行盈利可能会受到打击。高盛股价周五下跌超过1%,摩根大通和摩根士丹利也出现亏损。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示,官员们已经讨论了缩减债券购买,并将在某个时候开始放缓资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> \"Investors may be interpreting the Fed's hawkish tilt Wednesday as a sign that an extended US post-pandemic economic expansion may be a bit harder to achieve in a potentially emerging environment of less accommodative monetary policy,\" said Goldman Sachs' Chris Hussey in a note.</p><p><blockquote>高盛(Goldman Sachs)的克里斯·赫西(Chris Hussey)在一份报告中表示:“投资者可能将美联储周三的鹰派倾向解读为一个迹象,表明在可能出现的货币政策不太宽松的环境下,美国大流行后经济扩张可能更难实现。”</blockquote></p><p> Most commodities prices rebounded a bit on Friday followingsharp declines this week as China attempts to cool rising prices and the U.S. dollar strengthens. Futures prices for copper, gold, and platinum rebounded Friday, but were still down big for the week.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国试图冷却不断上涨的物价和美元走强,大多数大宗商品价格在本周大幅下跌后,周五略有反弹。铜、黄金和铂的期货价格周五反弹,但本周仍大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Chip stocks, which have had a good week, looked set to continue their run on Friday with shares of Nvidia higher by about 1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周表现良好的芯片股周五似乎将继续上涨,英伟达股价上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe shares gained about 3% after earnings and revenue topped estimates.</p><p><blockquote>盈利和收入超出预期后,Adobe股价上涨约3%。</blockquote></p><p> Friday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.</p><p><blockquote>周五也恰逢季度“四重巫术”,指数和股票的期权和期货到期。许多人预计,鉴于这一事件,交易将更加波动。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118271544","content_text":"U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week since January, as bank shares led the market sell-off after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.\nThe blue-chip average dropped 400 points, bringing its week-to-date losses to 2.8% The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, pushing its loss this week to more than 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.5%.\nStocks extended their losses asSt. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said on CNBCthat it was natural for the Fed to tilt a little \"hawkish\" this week and that the first rate increase from the central bank would likely come in 2022.\nWall Street registered losses as the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon added two rate hikes to its 2023 forecast and increased its inflation projection for the year.\nThe decline in stocks came as the Fed's actions caused a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year, fell. The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.\nThis phenomenon is hurting bank stocks particularly as bank earnings could take a hit when the spread between short-term and long-term rates narrows. Goldman Sachs shares fell more than 1% Friday, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also traded in the red.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.\n\"Investors may be interpreting the Fed's hawkish tilt Wednesday as a sign that an extended US post-pandemic economic expansion may be a bit harder to achieve in a potentially emerging environment of less accommodative monetary policy,\" said Goldman Sachs' Chris Hussey in a note.\nMost commodities prices rebounded a bit on Friday followingsharp declines this week as China attempts to cool rising prices and the U.S. dollar strengthens. Futures prices for copper, gold, and platinum rebounded Friday, but were still down big for the week.\nChip stocks, which have had a good week, looked set to continue their run on Friday with shares of Nvidia higher by about 1%.\nAdobe shares gained about 3% after earnings and revenue topped estimates.\nFriday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161872959,"gmtCreate":1623920068171,"gmtModify":1634025868069,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Lovely] [Sly] ","listText":"[Lovely] [Sly] ","text":"[Lovely] [Sly]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161872959","repostId":"1147243421","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147243421","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623918768,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147243421?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 16:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Vaccine sector stocks gained in pre-market trading.<blockquote>疫苗板块股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147243421","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Vaccine sector stocks gained in pre-market trading.\nNovavax,Moderna and BioNTech shares were up bewt","content":"<p>Vaccine sector stocks gained in pre-market trading.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗板块股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Novavax,Moderna and BioNTech shares were up bewteen 1% and 5%.</p><p><blockquote>Novavax、Moderna和BioNTech股价上涨1%至5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcf7ccd098da30e231e2f93a2600de4a\" tg-width=\"1291\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Vaccine sector stocks gained in pre-market trading.<blockquote>疫苗板块股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVaccine sector stocks gained in pre-market trading.<blockquote>疫苗板块股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 16:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Vaccine sector stocks gained in pre-market trading.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗板块股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Novavax,Moderna and BioNTech shares were up bewteen 1% and 5%.</p><p><blockquote>Novavax、Moderna和BioNTech股价上涨1%至5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcf7ccd098da30e231e2f93a2600de4a\" tg-width=\"1291\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","BNTX":"BioNTech SE","NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147243421","content_text":"Vaccine sector stocks gained in pre-market trading.\nNovavax,Moderna and BioNTech shares were up bewteen 1% and 5%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BNTX":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"NVAX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}