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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-09-09
RIP
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-09-07
$Apple(AAPL)$
Holding on. All the way AAPL!
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-09-07
Thanks for circulating this great article here :)
Alibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW:短期交易策略</blockquote>
SummaryOver the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba's valuation; its
Alibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW:短期交易策略</blockquote>
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-08-26
Stock split means more retail investors can have a stake in the company and not the company is issuing more shares.
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-08-23
Tesla still the EV market leader!
TSLA Stock Falls as Tesla Hikes FSD Prices<blockquote>特斯拉上调 FSD 价格,特斯拉股价下跌</blockquote>
Elon Musk has announced that Tesla(TSLA) is preparing for an important price hike.The company's full
TSLA Stock Falls as Tesla Hikes FSD Prices<blockquote>特斯拉上调 FSD 价格,特斯拉股价下跌</blockquote>
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-08-23
Thanks very much for this detail write out!
SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal<blockquote>SPDR标普500指数ETF:是时候退出了,卖空量疲软表明逆转</blockquote>
SummaryThe base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging t
SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal<blockquote>SPDR标普500指数ETF:是时候退出了,卖空量疲软表明逆转</blockquote>
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-08-03
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
Something to rejoice about in this turbulent market condition =)
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-08-03
Thanks for sharing. Hopefully the author is wrong about Tesla.
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-07-29
I am so glad !!
Apple CFO Says Supply Chain Issues In June Quarter Cost Under $4B In Sales<blockquote>苹果首席财务官表示,6 月份季度的供应链问题导致销售额低于 40 亿美元</blockquote>
-Reuters
Apple CFO Says Supply Chain Issues In June Quarter Cost Under $4B In Sales<blockquote>苹果首席财务官表示,6 月份季度的供应链问题导致销售额低于 40 亿美元</blockquote>
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-07-29
So happy to hear the passing of the bill for the future of America :)
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Holding on. All the way AAPL!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Holding on. All the way AAPL!","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$Holding on. All the way AAPL!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1f50f792f15fce0a591668de3d9691e","width":"2360","height":"1312"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669594721","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":669594473,"gmtCreate":1662511729392,"gmtModify":1662511736108,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570187411453325","authorIdStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for circulating this great article here :)","listText":"Thanks for circulating this great article here :)","text":"Thanks for circulating this great article here :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669594473","repostId":"1199050881","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199050881","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662478265,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199050881?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-06 23:31","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW:短期交易策略</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199050881","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryOver the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba's valuation; its","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Over the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba's valuation; its value is somewhere between $90.78 and $100.88/share.</li><li>Alibaba has repeatedly traded at high volumes near both value extremes in the last 5 days, sometimes on the same day.</li><li>Alibaba's volatility makes it a great stock for short-term day or swing trading.</li><li>Money in losing positions is often called "dead money". However short-term trading around a losing position can, if executed successfully, lower a position's cost basis and generate return.</li></ul><b>The Young Bull and the Older, Wiser Bull</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在过去的5天里,市场对阿里巴巴的估值达成了某种共识;其价值在每股 90.78 美元至 100.88 美元之间。</li><li>过去 5 天,阿里巴巴-SW多次在两个价值极值附近进行高交易量交易,有时甚至在同一天。</li><li>阿里巴巴的波动性使其成为短期日内或波段交易的绝佳股票。</li><li>亏损头寸中的钱通常被称为“死钱”。然而,如果成功执行,围绕亏损头寸进行短期交易可以降低头寸的成本基础并产生回报。</li></ul><b>年轻的公牛和年长、更聪明的公牛</b></blockquote></p><p>Recently, I observed an old bull and a young bull grazing in a green pasture on a beautiful, sunny day. The young bull gazed towards a nearby watering hole and noticed a herd of cows had gathered there. The youngster said, "I'm going to run over and buy one of those cows a drink". The older, wiser bull replied, "I'm going to walk over and buy them all a drink".</p><p><blockquote>最近,我观察到一头老牛和一头小牛在一个美丽、阳光明媚的日子里在绿色的牧场上吃草。小牛凝视着附近的一个水坑,注意到一群奶牛聚集在那里。这个年轻人说:“我要跑过去给其中一头奶牛买杯饮料”。年纪更大、更聪明的公牛回答说:“我要过去请他们喝一杯”。</blockquote></p><p><b>Alibaba: A Proverbial Herd of Cows</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW:众所周知的牛群</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the last year, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) has traded between a high of $182.09 and a low of $73.28. BABA has generally trended down with exceptional volatility and closed on September 2nd at $91.80.</p><p><blockquote>去年,阿里巴巴-SW (NYSE:BABA) 的交易价格在 182.09 美元的高点和 73.28 美元的低点之间波动。阿里巴巴总体上呈下跌趋势,波动性异常大,9 月 2 日收于 91.80 美元。</blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: 1-Year Price Range</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BABA:1 年价格范围</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca7be63615cd2146c68f392a0cef02e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p>Many portfolios, no doubt, include "dead money" in losing BABA positions with negative unrealized and realized gains. However, each time a share changed hands at every price level, there was a winner and a loser on the trade. Clever or lucky investors sold at a short-term peak to a willing buyer; the opposite case is also true. Over most time ranges, it may be possible to get on the winning side of most trades and generate return even on dead money.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问,许多投资组合都包括“死钱”,即失去阿里巴巴头寸,未实现和已实现收益为负。然而,每次股票在每个价格水平易手时,交易中都会有一个赢家和一个输家。聪明或幸运的投资者在短期峰值卖给愿意的买家;相反的情况也是如此。在大多数时间范围内,即使是死钱,也有可能在大多数交易中获胜并产生回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short-Term Trading Strategy: Maintain Share Count</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期交易策略:维持股票数量</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the last five days, BABA's price range has been $90.78 to $100.88/share. Over the same 5 days, BABA has traded at several shorter-term highs and lows. Based on the recent past and the last year, one could reasonably expect BABA to continue bouncing in a similar way. With the goal of maintaining share count while realizing short-term gains, I recommend a short-term buying and selling strategy based on a relatively simple analysis.</p><p><blockquote>过去五天,阿里巴巴的股价区间为每股90.78美元至100.88美元。在同样的5天里,阿里巴巴的交易经历了几个短期高点和低点。根据最近的过去和去年的情况,人们可以合理地预期阿里巴巴将继续以类似的方式反弹。本着在实现短期收益的同时维持份额数量的目标,我推荐基于相对简单分析的短期买卖策略。</blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy & Sell Ranges - Maintain Share Count</i></p><p><blockquote><i>阿里巴巴:5 天价格与买卖范围 - 维持股份数量</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0037de1ff3e4a30d8de1609790a0ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p>BABA's 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. The green and red shaded areas represent short-term buy and sell zones by the author. The sell and buy ranges begin at 0.75% above and below the median price respectively. The 0.75% spread on each side of the median price range is somewhat arbitrary. It could be narrower or broader depending on several factors including one's risk tolerance, how closely one will follow BABA intraday, and one's planned trading frequency & volume. Based on my analysis of recent trading, I recommend buying BABA beginning at $95.11 and selling beginning at $96.55 in order to realize short-term gains while maintaining share count.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的 5 天价格范围由蓝色实线表示,中位价格为 95.83 美元,由蓝色虚线绘制。绿色和红色阴影区域代表作者的短期买卖区域。卖出和买入范围分别高于和低于中位数价格0.75%。价格中位数范围两侧0.75%的价差有些武断。它可能会变窄或变宽,这取决于几个因素,包括一个人的风险承受能力、一个人在盘中对阿里巴巴的关注程度以及一个人计划的交易频率和交易量。根据我对近期交易的分析,我建议从 95.11 美元开始买入阿里巴巴,从 96.55 美元开始卖出,以便在保持股票数量的同时实现短期收益。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Buy & Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>在维持股份数量的同时买卖阿里巴巴</i></b></blockquote></p><p>This chart was generated with a downloadable Excel spreadsheet by the author.</p><p><blockquote>该图表由作者使用可下载的Excel电子表格生成。</blockquote></p><p><i>Maintain Share Count</i></p><p><blockquote><i>维持股份数量</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033f311932792e534be4a59481a36ad3\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"734\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Author</p><p><blockquote>作者</blockquote></p><p>Adjustable inputs are in the shaded cells. Buy and sell limit orders are tabulated with a goal of maintaining share count; buy & sell count and spread are equal. I recommend investors who are comfortable with short-term trading place descending buy and ascending sell limit orders on both sides of the short-term median price. Less aggressive investors can place a single limit order or a single buy and sell pair.</p><p><blockquote>可调输入位于阴影单元格中。买入和卖出限价订单被制成表格,目的是保持股份数量;买卖数量和价差相等。我建议对短期交易感到满意的投资者在短期中值价格的两侧下达向下买入和向上卖出限价单。不太激进的投资者可以下单个限价单或单个买卖对。</blockquote></p><p>However, based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, some investors may wish to accumulate BABA.</p><p><blockquote>然而,基于对阿里巴巴估值和势头的简要回顾,一些投资者可能希望积累阿里巴巴。</blockquote></p><p><b>BABA: A Brief Review of Valuation and Momentum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴:估值和势头简述</b></blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: Historical EV/EBITDA Ratio</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BABA:历史EV/EBITDA比率</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65d572de993b59310b63a1e15952975e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p></p><p>BABA EV/EBITDA is plotted over 3 years and is currently near its lowest point over that time range. The ratio reached a peak in late 2020 (arguably based on positive sentiment and hopeful analysis) and has since fallen on delisting concerns and negative sentiment. I expect delisting concerns to be resolved and sentiment to improve. Based on BABA's current EV/EBITDA ratio, now is a good time to accumulate shares.</p><p><blockquote>BABA EV/EBITDA 绘制时间为 3 年,目前接近该时间范围内的最低点。该比率在 2020 年底达到峰值(可以说是基于积极情绪和充满希望的分析),此后因退市担忧和负面情绪而下降。我预计退市问题将得到解决,市场情绪将有所改善。根据阿里巴巴目前的EV/EBITDA比率,现在是积累股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: Momentum</i></p><p><blockquote><i>爸爸:动量</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08c5bd8470c70c6d1153b9f3e6fec200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p>BABA share price is currently below its 200, 100, 50, and even 10-day simple moving averages. A simple momentum strategy is based on reversion to mean; over most time ranges, share price will oscillate around its mean value. If BABA oscillates towards any of its moving averages, share price will increase.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴股价目前低于200日、100日、50日甚至10日简单移动平均线。简单的动量策略是基于均值回归;在大多数时间范围内,股价将围绕其平均值波动。如果阿里巴巴向任何移动平均线振荡,股价就会上涨。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short-Term Trading Strategy: Accumulate Shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短线交易策略:积累股票</b></blockquote></p><p>Based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, I recommend investors accumulate BABA. The following graph is nearly identical to the graph discussed above; a single parameter has been adjusted.</p><p><blockquote>基于对阿里巴巴估值和势头的简要回顾,我建议投资者积累阿里巴巴。下图与上面讨论的图几乎相同;已调整单个参数。</blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy & Sell Ranges: Accumulate Shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>阿里巴巴:带有买卖范围的 5 天价格:累积股票</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0134a770b2e34c173529887827a35fcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p>Again, BABA's 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. However, the green and red shaded areas representing short-term buy and sell zones are asymmetric with relation to the median price. The sell range begins at 0.75% above the median price while the buy range begins 0.5% below the median price. Short-term trading with these ranges would be more likely to result in accumulation of shares than the "<i>Maintain Share Count"</i>strategy discussed previously.</p><p><blockquote>同样,阿里巴巴的 5 天价格范围由蓝色实线表示,中位价格为 95.83 美元,由蓝色虚线绘制。然而,代表短期买入和卖出区域的绿色和红色阴影区域相对于中值价格是不对称的。卖出范围从高于中位数价格0.75%开始,而买入范围从低于中位数价格0.5%开始。在这些区间内进行短期交易比在“<i>维持股份数量」</i>前面讨论过的策略。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Buy & Sell BABA While Accumulating Shares</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>在积累股票的同时买卖阿里巴巴</i></b></blockquote></p><p>This chart is very similar to that discussed with relation to the "<i>Maintain Share Count"</i> strategy and was generated with the same downloadable Excel spreadsheet.</p><p><blockquote>这个图表与讨论的“<i>维持股份数量」</i>策略,并使用相同的可下载Excel电子表格生成。</blockquote></p><p><i>Accumulate Shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>累积股份</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96237d2d24d5b86f0fd446b9f1ee7ac2\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Author</p><p><blockquote>作者</blockquote></p><p>The only difference is the buy spread has been reduced to 0.50% from 0.75%. The recommended sell orders are identical while the recommended buy orders are slightly more aggressive. In essence, the recommended sell and buy orders would be more likely to result in accumulating shares than those listed in "<i>Buy & Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count"</i>chart.</p><p><blockquote>唯一的区别是买入价差已从 0.75% 降至 0.50%。推荐的卖单是相同的,而推荐的买单稍微激进一些。从本质上讲,建议的卖出和买入订单比列于“<i>在维持股份数量的同时买卖阿里巴巴”</i>图表。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short-Term Trading and Wash Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期交易和洗盘销售</b></blockquote></p><p>Any buyer or seller of any security including BABA should be aware of IRSrules on wash sales and seek the advice of a licensed accountant or other licensed professional as necessary. A good Seeking Alpha article on wash sale rules is also available. Generally, IRS wash rules apply to the sale and purchase of an identical stock within a 30-day period and are most often applied to tax loss sales.</p><p><blockquote>包括BABA在内的任何证券的任何买家或卖家都应了解IRSR关于wash销售的规则,并在必要时寻求注册会计师或其他持牌专业人士的建议。还有一篇关于wash销售规则的好的Seeking Alpha文章。一般来说,IRS wash 规则适用于 30 天内相同股票的销售和购买,并且最常适用于税收损失销售。</blockquote></p><p>Another scenario can be beneficial to investors. If a losing position or fraction thereof is sold and then repurchased at a lesser cost, a wash sale occurs. Most brokerages will adjust the cost basis of the position. It is easiest to discuss with an example and I happen to hold a losing BABA position.</p><p><blockquote>另一种情况可能对投资者有利。如果亏损头寸或其一部分被出售,然后以较低的成本回购,则发生洗盘。大多数券商会调整头寸的成本基础。用一个例子来讨论是最容易的,而我恰好持有一个失败的巴巴立场。</blockquote></p><p>My BABA cost basis is approximately $115. I swing trade losing positions aggressively and have shared my strategy in comments on BABA articles on two occasions. On August 26th, I sold my entire position in 10 blocks with ascending limit orders starting at $98.5 with intervals of $0.5 (98.5, 99, 99.5, …$103) for an average sale price of $100.75. I placed descending limit orders later in the day to buy the same blocks starting at $98 and descending by $0.5. Two of those limit orders closed that day at $98 and $97.5 and subsequently, I was able to refill the remainder of my position with a total average price of $95.75. Notably, I realized neither the highest possible sale price nor the lowest possible purchase price over the period but still gained $5.00 per share. My cost basis was lowered from about $115 to about $110/share.</p><p><blockquote>我的BABA成本基础大约是115美元。我积极地进行亏损交易,并曾两次在巴巴文章的评论中分享我的策略。8 月 26 日,我以 100.75 美元的平均售价出售了 10 个区间的全部头寸,限价单起价为 98.5 美元,间隔为 0.5 美元(98.5、99、99.5、…103 美元)。当天晚些时候,我下了下跌限价单,以98美元开始购买相同的区块,下跌0.5美元。其中两个限价单当天以98美元和97.5美元收盘,随后,我能够以95.75美元的总平均价格补充剩余头寸。值得注意的是,在此期间,我既没有意识到可能的最高销售价格,也没有意识到可能的最低买入价,但每股仍获得了 5.00 美元的收益。我的成本基础从大约115美元/股降至大约110美元/股。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risks: Plan to Win but Be Prepared to Fail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险:计划胜利,但做好失败的准备</b></blockquote></p><p>A thorough fundamental analysis of BABA or discussion of news is beyond the scope of this discussion; there is no shortage of analysis and news elsewhere. If one is going to buy or sell any stock, including short-term, evaluation should be carefully considered.</p><p><blockquote>对巴巴的彻底基本面分析或对新闻的讨论超出了本讨论的范围;其他地方不乏分析和新闻。如果一个人打算买卖任何股票,包括短期股票,评估应该仔细考虑。</blockquote></p><p>Further, the recommended buying and selling ranges may not be advantageous over any period if BABA makes a big move in either direction. I recommend traders generate a similar buy/sell plot either with Seeking Alpha's advanced charting tool or by printing and annotating a chart by hand.</p><p><blockquote>此外,如果阿里巴巴在任何一个方向上采取重大行动,建议的买入和卖出范围在任何时期都可能没有优势。我建议交易者使用Seeking Alpha的高级图表工具或手动打印和注释图表来生成类似的买入/卖出图表。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Short-term trading can go wrong in at least two ways. An investor can sell a fraction of a position or an entire position at the beginning of a sustained rally. That investor might not have an opportunity to repurchase those shares at a lesser price if the stock continues to rally. Conversely, one can purchase an unlimited quantity of shares on a dip and never be able to sell those shares for a gain.</p><p><blockquote>短期交易至少会在两个方面出错。投资者可以在持续反弹开始时卖出一小部分头寸或全部头寸。如果股票继续上涨,该投资者可能没有机会以较低的价格回购这些股票。相反,人们可以在下跌时购买无限数量的股票,但永远无法出售这些股票以获利。</blockquote></p><p>An individual investor can manage these risks several ways. Complimentary but opposite limit orders can be placed as transactions close. Some brokerages have special order types whereby a secondary order is placed after a primary order executes. Further, an investor can limit how much of a position is sold or stop buying a dip once a position limit is reached. Both selling and accumulation can be limited by adjusting the frequency, size, and spread of the trades.</p><p><blockquote>个人投资者可以通过多种方式管理这些风险。交易结束时,可以下达免费但相反的限价单。一些经纪公司有特殊的订单类型,在主要订单执行后下达次要订单。此外,投资者可以限制出售头寸的数量,或者在达到头寸限制后停止买入。通过调整交易的频率、规模和价差,可以限制卖出和积累。</blockquote></p><p>An aggressive investor can sell up to 100% of any position at any moment or accumulate limited only by available funds. I recommend blocks no bigger than 10% of target position size with accumulation up to 1.5x target position and selling down to 50% of the same target. In many cases where a stock is volatile, placing ascending and/or descending limit orders can be a successful strategy. More conservative investors can buy and sell in blocks of 5% or less while limiting accumulation to 120% of a target position and selling down to 80% of the same target.</p><p><blockquote>激进的投资者可以随时出售高达 100% 的任何头寸,或者仅以可用资金进行有限的积累。我建议区块不大于目标头寸大小的10%,累积高达目标头寸的1.5倍,卖出低于同一目标的50%。在许多股票波动较大的情况下,下上限单和/或下限单可能是一种成功的策略。更保守的投资者可以以 5% 或更少的价格买卖,同时将累积量限制在目标头寸的 120%,并将卖出量限制在同一目标头寸的 80%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investor Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p>Based on current valuation and momentum, I would not recommend decreasing a BABA position at this time. BABA positions are not dead money; I advise most investors trade BABA short-term with the goal of generating return while accumulating shares. I recommend most investors buy BABA below $95.35 and sell above $96.55 if trading remains in a range similar to the last five days. Notably, Baba closed at $91.80 on Friday and may open below $95.35 on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前的估值和势头,我不建议此时减持阿里巴巴头寸。阿里巴巴的头寸不是死钱;我建议大多数投资者短期交易阿里巴巴,目标是在积累股票的同时产生回报。如果交易价格保持在与过去五天相似的范围内,我建议大多数投资者在低于 95.35 美元时买入阿里巴巴,并在高于 96.55 美元时卖出。值得注意的是,阿里巴巴周五收盘价为 91.80 美元,周二开盘价可能低于 95.35 美元。</blockquote></p><p>I recommend investors do their own scribbling over a price chart digitally or otherwise and then tabulate limit orders. The downloadable Excel spreadsheet will generate buy and sell limit orders based on share count, high & low prices over any time range, sell count & spread, and buy count & spread. Investors who already hold a larger BABA position than fits their own risk reward profile may be eager to reduce exposure. These Investors can also generate a buy & sell zone chart and tabulate limit orders with the same Excel spreadsheet.</p><p><blockquote>我建议投资者自己用数字或其他方式在价格图表上涂鸦,然后将限价单制成表格。可下载的Excel电子表格将根据股票数量、任何时间范围内的最高价和最低价、卖出数量和价差以及买入数量和价差生成买入和卖出限价订单。已经持有超过其风险回报状况的阿里巴巴头寸的投资者可能急于减少风险敞口。这些投资者还可以生成买卖区域图表,并使用相同的Excel电子表格将限价单制成表格。</blockquote></p><p>I advise all investors remember the two bulls I recently observed: be the older wiser, bull; have a carefully considered plan; be methodical & patient; and walk. Don't run. Investors who patiently execute carefully considered plans are often lucky.</p><p><blockquote>我建议所有投资者记住我最近观察到的两只牛市:做老有所为的人,牛市;有一个深思熟虑的计划;有条不紊和耐心;走路。别跑。耐心执行经过深思熟虑的计划的投资者往往是幸运的。</blockquote></p><p>In the moment of action, remember the value of silence and order - Phormio of Athens</body></html></p><p><blockquote>在行动的时刻,记住沉默和秩序的价值——雅典的福尔米奥</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW:短期交易策略</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW:短期交易策略</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-06 23:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Over the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba's valuation; its value is somewhere between $90.78 and $100.88/share.</li><li>Alibaba has repeatedly traded at high volumes near both value extremes in the last 5 days, sometimes on the same day.</li><li>Alibaba's volatility makes it a great stock for short-term day or swing trading.</li><li>Money in losing positions is often called "dead money". However short-term trading around a losing position can, if executed successfully, lower a position's cost basis and generate return.</li></ul><b>The Young Bull and the Older, Wiser Bull</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在过去的5天里,市场对阿里巴巴的估值达成了某种共识;其价值在每股 90.78 美元至 100.88 美元之间。</li><li>过去 5 天,阿里巴巴-SW多次在两个价值极值附近进行高交易量交易,有时甚至在同一天。</li><li>阿里巴巴的波动性使其成为短期日内或波段交易的绝佳股票。</li><li>亏损头寸中的钱通常被称为“死钱”。然而,如果成功执行,围绕亏损头寸进行短期交易可以降低头寸的成本基础并产生回报。</li></ul><b>年轻的公牛和年长、更聪明的公牛</b></blockquote></p><p>Recently, I observed an old bull and a young bull grazing in a green pasture on a beautiful, sunny day. The young bull gazed towards a nearby watering hole and noticed a herd of cows had gathered there. The youngster said, "I'm going to run over and buy one of those cows a drink". The older, wiser bull replied, "I'm going to walk over and buy them all a drink".</p><p><blockquote>最近,我观察到一头老牛和一头小牛在一个美丽、阳光明媚的日子里在绿色的牧场上吃草。小牛凝视着附近的一个水坑,注意到一群奶牛聚集在那里。这个年轻人说:“我要跑过去给其中一头奶牛买杯饮料”。年纪更大、更聪明的公牛回答说:“我要过去请他们喝一杯”。</blockquote></p><p><b>Alibaba: A Proverbial Herd of Cows</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW:众所周知的牛群</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the last year, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) has traded between a high of $182.09 and a low of $73.28. BABA has generally trended down with exceptional volatility and closed on September 2nd at $91.80.</p><p><blockquote>去年,阿里巴巴-SW (NYSE:BABA) 的交易价格在 182.09 美元的高点和 73.28 美元的低点之间波动。阿里巴巴总体上呈下跌趋势,波动性异常大,9 月 2 日收于 91.80 美元。</blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: 1-Year Price Range</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BABA:1 年价格范围</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca7be63615cd2146c68f392a0cef02e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p>Many portfolios, no doubt, include "dead money" in losing BABA positions with negative unrealized and realized gains. However, each time a share changed hands at every price level, there was a winner and a loser on the trade. Clever or lucky investors sold at a short-term peak to a willing buyer; the opposite case is also true. Over most time ranges, it may be possible to get on the winning side of most trades and generate return even on dead money.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问,许多投资组合都包括“死钱”,即失去阿里巴巴头寸,未实现和已实现收益为负。然而,每次股票在每个价格水平易手时,交易中都会有一个赢家和一个输家。聪明或幸运的投资者在短期峰值卖给愿意的买家;相反的情况也是如此。在大多数时间范围内,即使是死钱,也有可能在大多数交易中获胜并产生回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short-Term Trading Strategy: Maintain Share Count</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期交易策略:维持股票数量</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the last five days, BABA's price range has been $90.78 to $100.88/share. Over the same 5 days, BABA has traded at several shorter-term highs and lows. Based on the recent past and the last year, one could reasonably expect BABA to continue bouncing in a similar way. With the goal of maintaining share count while realizing short-term gains, I recommend a short-term buying and selling strategy based on a relatively simple analysis.</p><p><blockquote>过去五天,阿里巴巴的股价区间为每股90.78美元至100.88美元。在同样的5天里,阿里巴巴的交易经历了几个短期高点和低点。根据最近的过去和去年的情况,人们可以合理地预期阿里巴巴将继续以类似的方式反弹。本着在实现短期收益的同时维持份额数量的目标,我推荐基于相对简单分析的短期买卖策略。</blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy & Sell Ranges - Maintain Share Count</i></p><p><blockquote><i>阿里巴巴:5 天价格与买卖范围 - 维持股份数量</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0037de1ff3e4a30d8de1609790a0ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p>BABA's 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. The green and red shaded areas represent short-term buy and sell zones by the author. The sell and buy ranges begin at 0.75% above and below the median price respectively. The 0.75% spread on each side of the median price range is somewhat arbitrary. It could be narrower or broader depending on several factors including one's risk tolerance, how closely one will follow BABA intraday, and one's planned trading frequency & volume. Based on my analysis of recent trading, I recommend buying BABA beginning at $95.11 and selling beginning at $96.55 in order to realize short-term gains while maintaining share count.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的 5 天价格范围由蓝色实线表示,中位价格为 95.83 美元,由蓝色虚线绘制。绿色和红色阴影区域代表作者的短期买卖区域。卖出和买入范围分别高于和低于中位数价格0.75%。价格中位数范围两侧0.75%的价差有些武断。它可能会变窄或变宽,这取决于几个因素,包括一个人的风险承受能力、一个人在盘中对阿里巴巴的关注程度以及一个人计划的交易频率和交易量。根据我对近期交易的分析,我建议从 95.11 美元开始买入阿里巴巴,从 96.55 美元开始卖出,以便在保持股票数量的同时实现短期收益。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Buy & Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>在维持股份数量的同时买卖阿里巴巴</i></b></blockquote></p><p>This chart was generated with a downloadable Excel spreadsheet by the author.</p><p><blockquote>该图表由作者使用可下载的Excel电子表格生成。</blockquote></p><p><i>Maintain Share Count</i></p><p><blockquote><i>维持股份数量</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033f311932792e534be4a59481a36ad3\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"734\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Author</p><p><blockquote>作者</blockquote></p><p>Adjustable inputs are in the shaded cells. Buy and sell limit orders are tabulated with a goal of maintaining share count; buy & sell count and spread are equal. I recommend investors who are comfortable with short-term trading place descending buy and ascending sell limit orders on both sides of the short-term median price. Less aggressive investors can place a single limit order or a single buy and sell pair.</p><p><blockquote>可调输入位于阴影单元格中。买入和卖出限价订单被制成表格,目的是保持股份数量;买卖数量和价差相等。我建议对短期交易感到满意的投资者在短期中值价格的两侧下达向下买入和向上卖出限价单。不太激进的投资者可以下单个限价单或单个买卖对。</blockquote></p><p>However, based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, some investors may wish to accumulate BABA.</p><p><blockquote>然而,基于对阿里巴巴估值和势头的简要回顾,一些投资者可能希望积累阿里巴巴。</blockquote></p><p><b>BABA: A Brief Review of Valuation and Momentum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴:估值和势头简述</b></blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: Historical EV/EBITDA Ratio</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BABA:历史EV/EBITDA比率</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65d572de993b59310b63a1e15952975e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p></p><p>BABA EV/EBITDA is plotted over 3 years and is currently near its lowest point over that time range. The ratio reached a peak in late 2020 (arguably based on positive sentiment and hopeful analysis) and has since fallen on delisting concerns and negative sentiment. I expect delisting concerns to be resolved and sentiment to improve. Based on BABA's current EV/EBITDA ratio, now is a good time to accumulate shares.</p><p><blockquote>BABA EV/EBITDA 绘制时间为 3 年,目前接近该时间范围内的最低点。该比率在 2020 年底达到峰值(可以说是基于积极情绪和充满希望的分析),此后因退市担忧和负面情绪而下降。我预计退市问题将得到解决,市场情绪将有所改善。根据阿里巴巴目前的EV/EBITDA比率,现在是积累股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: Momentum</i></p><p><blockquote><i>爸爸:动量</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08c5bd8470c70c6d1153b9f3e6fec200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p>BABA share price is currently below its 200, 100, 50, and even 10-day simple moving averages. A simple momentum strategy is based on reversion to mean; over most time ranges, share price will oscillate around its mean value. If BABA oscillates towards any of its moving averages, share price will increase.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴股价目前低于200日、100日、50日甚至10日简单移动平均线。简单的动量策略是基于均值回归;在大多数时间范围内,股价将围绕其平均值波动。如果阿里巴巴向任何移动平均线振荡,股价就会上涨。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short-Term Trading Strategy: Accumulate Shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短线交易策略:积累股票</b></blockquote></p><p>Based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, I recommend investors accumulate BABA. The following graph is nearly identical to the graph discussed above; a single parameter has been adjusted.</p><p><blockquote>基于对阿里巴巴估值和势头的简要回顾,我建议投资者积累阿里巴巴。下图与上面讨论的图几乎相同;已调整单个参数。</blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy & Sell Ranges: Accumulate Shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>阿里巴巴:带有买卖范围的 5 天价格:累积股票</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0134a770b2e34c173529887827a35fcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p>Again, BABA's 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. However, the green and red shaded areas representing short-term buy and sell zones are asymmetric with relation to the median price. The sell range begins at 0.75% above the median price while the buy range begins 0.5% below the median price. Short-term trading with these ranges would be more likely to result in accumulation of shares than the "<i>Maintain Share Count"</i>strategy discussed previously.</p><p><blockquote>同样,阿里巴巴的 5 天价格范围由蓝色实线表示,中位价格为 95.83 美元,由蓝色虚线绘制。然而,代表短期买入和卖出区域的绿色和红色阴影区域相对于中值价格是不对称的。卖出范围从高于中位数价格0.75%开始,而买入范围从低于中位数价格0.5%开始。在这些区间内进行短期交易比在“<i>维持股份数量」</i>前面讨论过的策略。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Buy & Sell BABA While Accumulating Shares</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>在积累股票的同时买卖阿里巴巴</i></b></blockquote></p><p>This chart is very similar to that discussed with relation to the "<i>Maintain Share Count"</i> strategy and was generated with the same downloadable Excel spreadsheet.</p><p><blockquote>这个图表与讨论的“<i>维持股份数量」</i>策略,并使用相同的可下载Excel电子表格生成。</blockquote></p><p><i>Accumulate Shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>累积股份</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96237d2d24d5b86f0fd446b9f1ee7ac2\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Author</p><p><blockquote>作者</blockquote></p><p>The only difference is the buy spread has been reduced to 0.50% from 0.75%. The recommended sell orders are identical while the recommended buy orders are slightly more aggressive. In essence, the recommended sell and buy orders would be more likely to result in accumulating shares than those listed in "<i>Buy & Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count"</i>chart.</p><p><blockquote>唯一的区别是买入价差已从 0.75% 降至 0.50%。推荐的卖单是相同的,而推荐的买单稍微激进一些。从本质上讲,建议的卖出和买入订单比列于“<i>在维持股份数量的同时买卖阿里巴巴”</i>图表。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short-Term Trading and Wash Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期交易和洗盘销售</b></blockquote></p><p>Any buyer or seller of any security including BABA should be aware of IRSrules on wash sales and seek the advice of a licensed accountant or other licensed professional as necessary. A good Seeking Alpha article on wash sale rules is also available. Generally, IRS wash rules apply to the sale and purchase of an identical stock within a 30-day period and are most often applied to tax loss sales.</p><p><blockquote>包括BABA在内的任何证券的任何买家或卖家都应了解IRSR关于wash销售的规则,并在必要时寻求注册会计师或其他持牌专业人士的建议。还有一篇关于wash销售规则的好的Seeking Alpha文章。一般来说,IRS wash 规则适用于 30 天内相同股票的销售和购买,并且最常适用于税收损失销售。</blockquote></p><p>Another scenario can be beneficial to investors. If a losing position or fraction thereof is sold and then repurchased at a lesser cost, a wash sale occurs. Most brokerages will adjust the cost basis of the position. It is easiest to discuss with an example and I happen to hold a losing BABA position.</p><p><blockquote>另一种情况可能对投资者有利。如果亏损头寸或其一部分被出售,然后以较低的成本回购,则发生洗盘。大多数券商会调整头寸的成本基础。用一个例子来讨论是最容易的,而我恰好持有一个失败的巴巴立场。</blockquote></p><p>My BABA cost basis is approximately $115. I swing trade losing positions aggressively and have shared my strategy in comments on BABA articles on two occasions. On August 26th, I sold my entire position in 10 blocks with ascending limit orders starting at $98.5 with intervals of $0.5 (98.5, 99, 99.5, …$103) for an average sale price of $100.75. I placed descending limit orders later in the day to buy the same blocks starting at $98 and descending by $0.5. Two of those limit orders closed that day at $98 and $97.5 and subsequently, I was able to refill the remainder of my position with a total average price of $95.75. Notably, I realized neither the highest possible sale price nor the lowest possible purchase price over the period but still gained $5.00 per share. My cost basis was lowered from about $115 to about $110/share.</p><p><blockquote>我的BABA成本基础大约是115美元。我积极地进行亏损交易,并曾两次在巴巴文章的评论中分享我的策略。8 月 26 日,我以 100.75 美元的平均售价出售了 10 个区间的全部头寸,限价单起价为 98.5 美元,间隔为 0.5 美元(98.5、99、99.5、…103 美元)。当天晚些时候,我下了下跌限价单,以98美元开始购买相同的区块,下跌0.5美元。其中两个限价单当天以98美元和97.5美元收盘,随后,我能够以95.75美元的总平均价格补充剩余头寸。值得注意的是,在此期间,我既没有意识到可能的最高销售价格,也没有意识到可能的最低买入价,但每股仍获得了 5.00 美元的收益。我的成本基础从大约115美元/股降至大约110美元/股。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risks: Plan to Win but Be Prepared to Fail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险:计划胜利,但做好失败的准备</b></blockquote></p><p>A thorough fundamental analysis of BABA or discussion of news is beyond the scope of this discussion; there is no shortage of analysis and news elsewhere. If one is going to buy or sell any stock, including short-term, evaluation should be carefully considered.</p><p><blockquote>对巴巴的彻底基本面分析或对新闻的讨论超出了本讨论的范围;其他地方不乏分析和新闻。如果一个人打算买卖任何股票,包括短期股票,评估应该仔细考虑。</blockquote></p><p>Further, the recommended buying and selling ranges may not be advantageous over any period if BABA makes a big move in either direction. I recommend traders generate a similar buy/sell plot either with Seeking Alpha's advanced charting tool or by printing and annotating a chart by hand.</p><p><blockquote>此外,如果阿里巴巴在任何一个方向上采取重大行动,建议的买入和卖出范围在任何时期都可能没有优势。我建议交易者使用Seeking Alpha的高级图表工具或手动打印和注释图表来生成类似的买入/卖出图表。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Short-term trading can go wrong in at least two ways. An investor can sell a fraction of a position or an entire position at the beginning of a sustained rally. That investor might not have an opportunity to repurchase those shares at a lesser price if the stock continues to rally. Conversely, one can purchase an unlimited quantity of shares on a dip and never be able to sell those shares for a gain.</p><p><blockquote>短期交易至少会在两个方面出错。投资者可以在持续反弹开始时卖出一小部分头寸或全部头寸。如果股票继续上涨,该投资者可能没有机会以较低的价格回购这些股票。相反,人们可以在下跌时购买无限数量的股票,但永远无法出售这些股票以获利。</blockquote></p><p>An individual investor can manage these risks several ways. Complimentary but opposite limit orders can be placed as transactions close. Some brokerages have special order types whereby a secondary order is placed after a primary order executes. Further, an investor can limit how much of a position is sold or stop buying a dip once a position limit is reached. Both selling and accumulation can be limited by adjusting the frequency, size, and spread of the trades.</p><p><blockquote>个人投资者可以通过多种方式管理这些风险。交易结束时,可以下达免费但相反的限价单。一些经纪公司有特殊的订单类型,在主要订单执行后下达次要订单。此外,投资者可以限制出售头寸的数量,或者在达到头寸限制后停止买入。通过调整交易的频率、规模和价差,可以限制卖出和积累。</blockquote></p><p>An aggressive investor can sell up to 100% of any position at any moment or accumulate limited only by available funds. I recommend blocks no bigger than 10% of target position size with accumulation up to 1.5x target position and selling down to 50% of the same target. In many cases where a stock is volatile, placing ascending and/or descending limit orders can be a successful strategy. More conservative investors can buy and sell in blocks of 5% or less while limiting accumulation to 120% of a target position and selling down to 80% of the same target.</p><p><blockquote>激进的投资者可以随时出售高达 100% 的任何头寸,或者仅以可用资金进行有限的积累。我建议区块不大于目标头寸大小的10%,累积高达目标头寸的1.5倍,卖出低于同一目标的50%。在许多股票波动较大的情况下,下上限单和/或下限单可能是一种成功的策略。更保守的投资者可以以 5% 或更少的价格买卖,同时将累积量限制在目标头寸的 120%,并将卖出量限制在同一目标头寸的 80%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investor Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p>Based on current valuation and momentum, I would not recommend decreasing a BABA position at this time. BABA positions are not dead money; I advise most investors trade BABA short-term with the goal of generating return while accumulating shares. I recommend most investors buy BABA below $95.35 and sell above $96.55 if trading remains in a range similar to the last five days. Notably, Baba closed at $91.80 on Friday and may open below $95.35 on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前的估值和势头,我不建议此时减持阿里巴巴头寸。阿里巴巴的头寸不是死钱;我建议大多数投资者短期交易阿里巴巴,目标是在积累股票的同时产生回报。如果交易价格保持在与过去五天相似的范围内,我建议大多数投资者在低于 95.35 美元时买入阿里巴巴,并在高于 96.55 美元时卖出。值得注意的是,阿里巴巴周五收盘价为 91.80 美元,周二开盘价可能低于 95.35 美元。</blockquote></p><p>I recommend investors do their own scribbling over a price chart digitally or otherwise and then tabulate limit orders. The downloadable Excel spreadsheet will generate buy and sell limit orders based on share count, high & low prices over any time range, sell count & spread, and buy count & spread. Investors who already hold a larger BABA position than fits their own risk reward profile may be eager to reduce exposure. These Investors can also generate a buy & sell zone chart and tabulate limit orders with the same Excel spreadsheet.</p><p><blockquote>我建议投资者自己用数字或其他方式在价格图表上涂鸦,然后将限价单制成表格。可下载的Excel电子表格将根据股票数量、任何时间范围内的最高价和最低价、卖出数量和价差以及买入数量和价差生成买入和卖出限价订单。已经持有超过其风险回报状况的阿里巴巴头寸的投资者可能急于减少风险敞口。这些投资者还可以生成买卖区域图表,并使用相同的Excel电子表格将限价单制成表格。</blockquote></p><p>I advise all investors remember the two bulls I recently observed: be the older wiser, bull; have a carefully considered plan; be methodical & patient; and walk. Don't run. Investors who patiently execute carefully considered plans are often lucky.</p><p><blockquote>我建议所有投资者记住我最近观察到的两只牛市:做老有所为的人,牛市;有一个深思熟虑的计划;有条不紊和耐心;走路。别跑。耐心执行经过深思熟虑的计划的投资者往往是幸运的。</blockquote></p><p>In the moment of action, remember the value of silence and order - Phormio of Athens</body></html></p><p><blockquote>在行动的时刻,记住沉默和秩序的价值——雅典的福尔米奥</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538878-alibaba-short-term-trading-strategy?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A24\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538878-alibaba-short-term-trading-strategy?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A24","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199050881","content_text":"SummaryOver the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba's valuation; its value is somewhere between $90.78 and $100.88/share.Alibaba has repeatedly traded at high volumes near both value extremes in the last 5 days, sometimes on the same day.Alibaba's volatility makes it a great stock for short-term day or swing trading.Money in losing positions is often called \"dead money\". However short-term trading around a losing position can, if executed successfully, lower a position's cost basis and generate return.The Young Bull and the Older, Wiser BullRecently, I observed an old bull and a young bull grazing in a green pasture on a beautiful, sunny day. The young bull gazed towards a nearby watering hole and noticed a herd of cows had gathered there. The youngster said, \"I'm going to run over and buy one of those cows a drink\". The older, wiser bull replied, \"I'm going to walk over and buy them all a drink\".Alibaba: A Proverbial Herd of CowsOver the last year, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) has traded between a high of $182.09 and a low of $73.28. BABA has generally trended down with exceptional volatility and closed on September 2nd at $91.80.BABA: 1-Year Price RangeSeeking AlphaMany portfolios, no doubt, include \"dead money\" in losing BABA positions with negative unrealized and realized gains. However, each time a share changed hands at every price level, there was a winner and a loser on the trade. Clever or lucky investors sold at a short-term peak to a willing buyer; the opposite case is also true. Over most time ranges, it may be possible to get on the winning side of most trades and generate return even on dead money.Short-Term Trading Strategy: Maintain Share CountOver the last five days, BABA's price range has been $90.78 to $100.88/share. Over the same 5 days, BABA has traded at several shorter-term highs and lows. Based on the recent past and the last year, one could reasonably expect BABA to continue bouncing in a similar way. With the goal of maintaining share count while realizing short-term gains, I recommend a short-term buying and selling strategy based on a relatively simple analysis.BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy & Sell Ranges - Maintain Share CountSeeking AlphaBABA's 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. The green and red shaded areas represent short-term buy and sell zones by the author. The sell and buy ranges begin at 0.75% above and below the median price respectively. The 0.75% spread on each side of the median price range is somewhat arbitrary. It could be narrower or broader depending on several factors including one's risk tolerance, how closely one will follow BABA intraday, and one's planned trading frequency & volume. Based on my analysis of recent trading, I recommend buying BABA beginning at $95.11 and selling beginning at $96.55 in order to realize short-term gains while maintaining share count.Buy & Sell BABA While Maintaining Share CountThis chart was generated with a downloadable Excel spreadsheet by the author.Maintain Share CountAuthorAdjustable inputs are in the shaded cells. Buy and sell limit orders are tabulated with a goal of maintaining share count; buy & sell count and spread are equal. I recommend investors who are comfortable with short-term trading place descending buy and ascending sell limit orders on both sides of the short-term median price. Less aggressive investors can place a single limit order or a single buy and sell pair.However, based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, some investors may wish to accumulate BABA.BABA: A Brief Review of Valuation and MomentumBABA: Historical EV/EBITDA RatioSeeking AlphaBABA EV/EBITDA is plotted over 3 years and is currently near its lowest point over that time range. The ratio reached a peak in late 2020 (arguably based on positive sentiment and hopeful analysis) and has since fallen on delisting concerns and negative sentiment. I expect delisting concerns to be resolved and sentiment to improve. Based on BABA's current EV/EBITDA ratio, now is a good time to accumulate shares.BABA: MomentumSeeking AlphaBABA share price is currently below its 200, 100, 50, and even 10-day simple moving averages. A simple momentum strategy is based on reversion to mean; over most time ranges, share price will oscillate around its mean value. If BABA oscillates towards any of its moving averages, share price will increase.Short-Term Trading Strategy: Accumulate SharesBased on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, I recommend investors accumulate BABA. The following graph is nearly identical to the graph discussed above; a single parameter has been adjusted.BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy & Sell Ranges: Accumulate SharesSeeking AlphaAgain, BABA's 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. However, the green and red shaded areas representing short-term buy and sell zones are asymmetric with relation to the median price. The sell range begins at 0.75% above the median price while the buy range begins 0.5% below the median price. Short-term trading with these ranges would be more likely to result in accumulation of shares than the \"Maintain Share Count\"strategy discussed previously.Buy & Sell BABA While Accumulating SharesThis chart is very similar to that discussed with relation to the \"Maintain Share Count\" strategy and was generated with the same downloadable Excel spreadsheet.Accumulate SharesAuthorThe only difference is the buy spread has been reduced to 0.50% from 0.75%. The recommended sell orders are identical while the recommended buy orders are slightly more aggressive. In essence, the recommended sell and buy orders would be more likely to result in accumulating shares than those listed in \"Buy & Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count\"chart.Short-Term Trading and Wash SalesAny buyer or seller of any security including BABA should be aware of IRSrules on wash sales and seek the advice of a licensed accountant or other licensed professional as necessary. A good Seeking Alpha article on wash sale rules is also available. Generally, IRS wash rules apply to the sale and purchase of an identical stock within a 30-day period and are most often applied to tax loss sales.Another scenario can be beneficial to investors. If a losing position or fraction thereof is sold and then repurchased at a lesser cost, a wash sale occurs. Most brokerages will adjust the cost basis of the position. It is easiest to discuss with an example and I happen to hold a losing BABA position.My BABA cost basis is approximately $115. I swing trade losing positions aggressively and have shared my strategy in comments on BABA articles on two occasions. On August 26th, I sold my entire position in 10 blocks with ascending limit orders starting at $98.5 with intervals of $0.5 (98.5, 99, 99.5, …$103) for an average sale price of $100.75. I placed descending limit orders later in the day to buy the same blocks starting at $98 and descending by $0.5. Two of those limit orders closed that day at $98 and $97.5 and subsequently, I was able to refill the remainder of my position with a total average price of $95.75. Notably, I realized neither the highest possible sale price nor the lowest possible purchase price over the period but still gained $5.00 per share. My cost basis was lowered from about $115 to about $110/share.Risks: Plan to Win but Be Prepared to FailA thorough fundamental analysis of BABA or discussion of news is beyond the scope of this discussion; there is no shortage of analysis and news elsewhere. If one is going to buy or sell any stock, including short-term, evaluation should be carefully considered.Further, the recommended buying and selling ranges may not be advantageous over any period if BABA makes a big move in either direction. I recommend traders generate a similar buy/sell plot either with Seeking Alpha's advanced charting tool or by printing and annotating a chart by hand.Short-term trading can go wrong in at least two ways. An investor can sell a fraction of a position or an entire position at the beginning of a sustained rally. That investor might not have an opportunity to repurchase those shares at a lesser price if the stock continues to rally. Conversely, one can purchase an unlimited quantity of shares on a dip and never be able to sell those shares for a gain.An individual investor can manage these risks several ways. Complimentary but opposite limit orders can be placed as transactions close. Some brokerages have special order types whereby a secondary order is placed after a primary order executes. Further, an investor can limit how much of a position is sold or stop buying a dip once a position limit is reached. Both selling and accumulation can be limited by adjusting the frequency, size, and spread of the trades.An aggressive investor can sell up to 100% of any position at any moment or accumulate limited only by available funds. I recommend blocks no bigger than 10% of target position size with accumulation up to 1.5x target position and selling down to 50% of the same target. In many cases where a stock is volatile, placing ascending and/or descending limit orders can be a successful strategy. More conservative investors can buy and sell in blocks of 5% or less while limiting accumulation to 120% of a target position and selling down to 80% of the same target.Investor TakeawaysBased on current valuation and momentum, I would not recommend decreasing a BABA position at this time. BABA positions are not dead money; I advise most investors trade BABA short-term with the goal of generating return while accumulating shares. I recommend most investors buy BABA below $95.35 and sell above $96.55 if trading remains in a range similar to the last five days. Notably, Baba closed at $91.80 on Friday and may open below $95.35 on Tuesday.I recommend investors do their own scribbling over a price chart digitally or otherwise and then tabulate limit orders. The downloadable Excel spreadsheet will generate buy and sell limit orders based on share count, high & low prices over any time range, sell count & spread, and buy count & spread. Investors who already hold a larger BABA position than fits their own risk reward profile may be eager to reduce exposure. These Investors can also generate a buy & sell zone chart and tabulate limit orders with the same Excel spreadsheet.I advise all investors remember the two bulls I recently observed: be the older wiser, bull; have a carefully considered plan; be methodical & patient; and walk. Don't run. Investors who patiently execute carefully considered plans are often lucky.In the moment of action, remember the value of silence and order - Phormio of Athens","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":660888876,"gmtCreate":1661524664898,"gmtModify":1661524951918,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570187411453325","authorIdStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Stock split means more retail investors can have a stake in the company and not the company is issuing more shares.","listText":"Stock split means more retail investors can have a stake in the company and not the company is issuing more shares.","text":"Stock split means more retail investors can have a stake in the company and not the company is issuing more shares.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c23e3754b302c0b94cb6df0a3594da32","width":"750","height":"890"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/660888876","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687433039,"gmtCreate":1661213823223,"gmtModify":1661213826602,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570187411453325","authorIdStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tesla still the EV market leader!","listText":"Tesla still the EV market leader!","text":"Tesla still the EV market leader!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687433039","repostId":"1131026217","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131026217","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661212670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131026217?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-23 07:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TSLA Stock Falls as Tesla Hikes FSD Prices<blockquote>特斯拉上调 FSD 价格,特斯拉股价下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131026217","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Elon Musk has announced that Tesla(TSLA) is preparing for an important price hike.The company's full","content":"<p><div> Elon Musk has announced that Tesla(TSLA) is preparing for an important price hike.The company's full-self driving (FSD) package will cost $15,000 in September.TSLA stock is falling as investors wonder...</p><p><blockquote><div>Elon Musk 宣布特斯拉 (TSLA) 正在准备大幅提价。该公司的全自动驾驶 (FSD) 套件将在 9 月份售价为 15,000 美元。由于投资者疑惑,特斯拉股价正在下跌……</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-stock-falls-as-tesla-hikes-fsd-prices/\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-stock-falls-as-tesla-hikes-fsd-prices/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSLA Stock Falls as Tesla Hikes FSD Prices<blockquote>特斯拉上调 FSD 价格,特斯拉股价下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSLA Stock Falls as Tesla Hikes FSD Prices<blockquote>特斯拉上调 FSD 价格,特斯拉股价下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-23 07:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Elon Musk has announced that Tesla(TSLA) is preparing for an important price hike.The company's full-self driving (FSD) package will cost $15,000 in September.TSLA stock is falling as investors wonder...</p><p><blockquote><div>Elon Musk 宣布特斯拉 (TSLA) 正在准备大幅提价。该公司的全自动驾驶 (FSD) 套件将在 9 月份售价为 15,000 美元。由于投资者疑惑,特斯拉股价正在下跌……</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-stock-falls-as-tesla-hikes-fsd-prices/\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-stock-falls-as-tesla-hikes-fsd-prices/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-stock-falls-as-tesla-hikes-fsd-prices/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-stock-falls-as-tesla-hikes-fsd-prices/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131026217","content_text":"Elon Musk has announced that Tesla(TSLA) is preparing for an important price hike.The company's full-self driving (FSD) package will cost $15,000 in September.TSLA stock is falling as investors wonder if the product is worth the price.Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is starting this week off in the red. TSLA stock will begin trading on a split basis later in the week, but today’s decline is due to a separate catalyst. Elon Musk has announced Tesla will be raising the price of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, its premium driver assistance software. Currently priced at $12,000, the product will be sold for $15,o0o starting Sept. 5, representing a 25% markup.As CNBC reports, “All new Tesla vehicles come with a standard driver assistance package called Autopilot, which includes features like ‘Traffic-Aware Cruise Control’ and ‘Autosteer.’ These rely on cameras, other sensors, hardware and software to automatically keep a Tesla vehicle centered in its lane and traveling at the speed of surrounding traffic.”Tesla’s FSD technology has generated plenty of controversy as it has progressed. But Musk clearly thinks demand will increase enough in the coming year to justify a price hike. Let’s dive into what TSLA stock investors can expect both before and after the FSD price hike.What it Means for TSLA StockTSLA stock quickly fell after markets opened today. But Musk had already announced this news over the weekend through his favorite medium. On the morning of Aug. 21, he tweeted the following message, also highlighting the long-awaited 10.69.2 Beta update:In a comment on the post, Musk also noted that Tesla owners can upgrade their existing cars to FSD in two minutes by using the company’s app.Electrek reports Tesla rolled out the upgrade to 1,000 testers over the weekend. The outlet highlights the patch notes posted online appeared similar to leaked notes from the 10.13 beta upgrade, citing improvements to left turns and animal and pedestrian detection. While this sounds like positive improvements, Musk’s announcement raises one important question: is the product worth the price hike?One expert doesn’t think so. John Koetsier is an AI and tech expert and host of the popular podcastTechFirst. He commented on Musk’s tweeted stating, “Way too expensive. You’re going to drive people to other car brands that include it.” When someone asked him to name examples of other companies providing a similar FSD software, Koetsier cited the Cadillac Super Cruise package. This alternative is offered by General Motors(NYSE:GM) for substantially less than Tesla’s equivalent. In early 2022, Input reported the following:“GM’s Super Cruise is making a play to become the gold standard for driving assist. While it takes a longer time to establish the Super Cruise network compared to Tesla’s approach, GM is well on its way to making it available on major highways and roads. Super Cruise, like Tesla’s Autopilot, is subscription-based, and costs $25 a month, though it does come free for three years with most GM vehicles.”The current monthly subscription cost for Tesla’s FSD package is $199. Next to that, GM’s option looks like an excellent deal. While it’s true that most other automakers aren’t offering similar products, Koetsier also states others will follow.Ford(NYSE:F) is already introducing the BlueCruise system, formerly known as Active Driver Assist.The Road AheadWhile these companies haven’t been able to rival Tesla’s electric vehicle (EV) sales, FSD is a new type of technology that is poised to grow in popularity. Companies that are early to the party will have at least a chance at securing a market share, particularly as Tesla’s FSD tech has been flamed for multiple accidents. If another automaker’s driver assistance tech can help garner public trust, it could push TSLA stock down.As such, it doesn’t make sense for Tesla to be raising prices at such a critical time. TSLA stock tell after the company raised EV prices in June 2022. Since demand for FSD packages isn’t as high as it is for Tesla vehicles, these price hikes could push it down even further.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687439728,"gmtCreate":1661213777366,"gmtModify":1661213782485,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570187411453325","authorIdStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks very much for this detail write out!","listText":"Thanks very much for this detail write out!","text":"Thanks very much for this detail write out!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687439728","repostId":"1113960584","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113960584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661237527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113960584?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-23 14:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal<blockquote>SPDR标普500指数ETF:是时候退出了,卖空量疲软表明逆转</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113960584","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging t","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging to stop the most lagged part of inflation.</li><li>The markets don't realize that fed members are in full hawkish mode. Although the market is certain about a soft-landing, the fed indicator suggests a recession.</li><li>Short-covering contributed to the latest bear market rally significantly. As there are very low short sales volumes right now, the reversion could be next.</li><li>SPY significantly deviated from real yields (strong inverse correlation) and this exemption won't last long.</li><li>The macroeconomic outlook could worsen with additional rate hikes, which is not supportive for EPS.</li></ul>In my most recent bond analysis, which focused on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), inflation, and monetary outlook, we predicted that the YoY and MoM inflation peaks would both occur in the months of July - September. I wagered that commodity prices would decline and that other leading indicators would also dramatically deteriorate. However the Fed responds to the most lagging inflation parts, the CPI/PCE/core CPI report from July is not initially bullish. Lower commodities prices had a significant impact on the MoM's "stabilization," but the most lagging drivers to the CPI - shelter and services are still quite high and are still increasing. The necessary items, which the Fed wants to stabilize, are not stabilizing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基数效应是通胀见顶的根本原因。阻止通货膨胀最滞后的部分将是一项挑战。</li><li>市场没有意识到美联储成员处于完全鹰派模式。尽管市场对软着陆充满信心,但美联储指标表明经济衰退。</li><li>空头回补对最近的熊市反弹做出了重大贡献。由于目前卖空量非常低,下一步可能是回归。</li><li>SPDR标普500指数ETF明显偏离实际收益率(强烈的负相关),这种豁免不会持续太久。</li><li>进一步加息可能会使宏观经济前景恶化,这不利于每股收益。</li></ul>在我最近的债券分析中,我们重点关注 iShares 20+ 年期国债 ETF (TLT)、通胀和货币前景,我们预测同比和环比通胀峰值都将出现在 7 月至 9 月。我打赌大宗商品价格会下跌,其他领先指标也会急剧恶化。无论美联储如何应对最滞后的通胀部分,7月份的CPI/PCE/核心CPI报告最初并不乐观。大宗商品价格下跌对妈妈的“稳定”产生了重大影响,但CPI最滞后的驱动因素——住房和服务仍然相当高,并且还在增加。美联储想要稳定的必需品并没有稳定。</blockquote></p><p>On first glance, the market rallied due to strong data from inflation prints, but in our breakdown, the data has not been strong at all. SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) deviated from the long-term inverse correlation between real yields and SPY's price mainly due to a "strong fundamental week." However, I'm firmly convinced this was another bear market rally. Medium-term inflation expectations rose, which is not a good case for stocks. In summary, we can await more rate hikes to come, more than the market currently prices in.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看,由于通胀数据的强劲数据,市场反弹,但在我们的分析中,数据根本不强劲。SPDR 标普500信托 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) 偏离了实际收益率和 SPY 价格之间的长期负相关关系,主要是由于“基本面强劲的一周”。然而,我坚信这是又一次熊市反弹。中期通胀预期上升,这对股票来说不是一个好案例。总之,我们可以等待更多的加息,比目前市场价格还要高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Inflation breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀细分</b></blockquote></p><p>The CPI's YoY growth was still high at 8.5% and rose in July by zero percent. However, the core CPI rose "only" by 0.2%, which was lower than the consensus. Nevertheless, if you make an inflation breakdown, you will see the drivers. Motor fuel (oil & gas) has contributed very negatively to the overall CPI monthly change. This item is the most current in the lagged CPI. However, the most lagging components of the CPI are housing, food prices, medical care services, and other services, and it will take some time for these inputs to stabilize or decline.</p><p><blockquote>CPI同比增长率仍然高达8.5%,7月份上涨了0个百分点。然而,核心CPI“仅”上涨0.2%,低于市场普遍预期。然而,如果你做一个通货膨胀明细,你会看到驱动因素。汽车燃料(石油和天然气)对整体 CPI 月度变化的影响非常负面。这个项目是滞后的CPI中最新的。然而,CPI中最滞后的组成部分是住房、食品价格、医疗保健服务和其他服务,这些投入的稳定或下降需要一段时间。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32fb983d571f92f960166b97b1eb1e09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CPI monthly change(@MacroAlf)</p><p><blockquote>CPI月度变化(@MacroAlf)</blockquote></p><p>As I stated in my previous analysis on TLT, the consumer destruction will take place in 2-3 months. The issue is that supply-side inflation (mainly oil, gas, and other commodities) can be impacted only indirectly - mainly by lowered demand. That is what we see in the commodity market right now. Industrial commodities and the ones that have a great impact on overall CPI started to decline. But it does not reflect only demand destruction but also the quite strong economic slowdown (forward-looking). I still believe inflation will go down, but mainly due to the strong base effect caused by the measured style-YoY comparison. The much more important figure will be core inflation on a monthly basis.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前对TLT的分析中所说,消费者的毁灭将在2-3个月内发生。问题在于,供应方通胀(主要是石油、天然气和其他大宗商品)只能受到间接影响——主要是需求下降。这就是我们现在在大宗商品市场上看到的情况。工业品和对整体CPI影响较大的商品开始回落。但这不仅反映了需求的破坏,也反映了相当强劲的经济放缓(前瞻性)。我仍然相信通胀会下降,但主要是由于测量的风格-同比比较造成的强劲基数效应。更重要的数字将是每月核心通胀率。</blockquote></p><p>Still, if inflation were to be zero on a monthly basis till the end of the year, it would still be at 6.5%, and if it were to be longer, it would be at 3.3% in March. Still significantly above the fed's medium-term target. I am confident that inflation will fall, and that we will see a significant slowdown in 4Q2022, but this must be accompanied by a continued reduction in consumption and GDP growth forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此,如果到今年年底每月通胀率为零,仍将为 6.5%,如果持续时间更长,3 月份将为 3.3%。仍大大高于美联储的中期目标。我相信通胀将会下降,我们将在 2022 年第四季度看到显着放缓,但这必须伴随着消费和 GDP 增长预测的持续下调。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16abe6e1dd19cfbe7ada120183feb6d6\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Projecting CPI at Year-End(BLS, Cleveland Federal Reserve Nowcast)</p><p><blockquote>年底 CPI 预测(BLS、克利夫兰美联储近期预测)</blockquote></p><p><b>Outlook on the monetary policy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>货币政策展望</b></blockquote></p><p>I'm strongly convinced that inflation will go down on a YoY basis. On the other hand, I'm a little bit less convinced by the MoM point of view. To support this scenario, the fed will need to be very hawkish to convince the market that it will do so. Despite still having a very inverted yield curve, the market started to price in fewer rate cuts than anticipated 2-3 weeks ago. And this is all on the back of lower-than-expected inflation figures from a week ago. The spread between Fed funds futures rates in Dec 2022 and Dec 2023 is reaching less than -0.2, thus implying market expectations of almost only one rate cut till Dec 2023.</p><p><blockquote>我坚信通胀将同比下降。另一方面,我有点不相信妈妈的观点。为了支持这种情况,美联储需要非常鹰派,以说服市场它会这样做。尽管收益率曲线仍然非常倒挂,但市场开始消化比2-3周前预期的更少的降息。而这一切都是基于一周前低于预期的通胀数据。2022年12月和2023年12月联邦基金期货利率之间的利差达到-0.2以下,这意味着市场预期到2023年12月几乎只会降息一次。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a4b790ae098a035c35b830ca03c865\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Spread between FFF 12/2022 and 12/2023(Author´s calculation via Tradingview)</p><p><blockquote>FFF 12/2022 和 12/2023 之间的价差(作者通过 Tradingview 计算)</blockquote></p><p>Despite the fact that the market began slightly repeating the FOMC member's rhetoric, the stocks rallied significantly. It is because the market believed the narrative of "soft-landing" to be more probable than before inflation prints. However, the inflation fight is still not over. I consider this rally unsustainable and not supported by the macro fundamentals. After the inflation print, rates expectations measured by Fed funds futures rose quite significantly.</p><p><blockquote>尽管市场开始略微重复联邦公开市场委员会成员的言论,但股市仍大幅上涨。这是因为市场认为“软着陆”的说法比通胀出现之前更有可能。然而,通胀之战仍未结束。我认为这种反弹是不可持续的,也没有得到宏观基本面的支持。通胀数据公布后,以联邦基金期货衡量的利率预期大幅上升。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33f3f05a2f5ce92a0dc8992ced3b6a53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Rates expectations measured by FFF(Author´s calculations via Tradingview)</p><p><blockquote>FFF 衡量的利率预期(作者通过 Tradingview 计算)</blockquote></p><p>Thus, retail investors are fairly misled by inflation print and soft-landing. This scenario does not support the thesis of being bullish at current levels. However, for me, the very strong narrative stands behind the real yields and SPY. There is a very strong negative correlation among the variables, which the market fully ignored until Friday.</p><p><blockquote>因此,散户投资者被通胀数据和软着陆相当误导。这种情况并不支持在当前水平上看涨的论点。然而,对我来说,真正的收益率和SPDR标普500指数ETF背后是非常强大的叙述。变量之间存在非常强的负相关关系,直到周五市场才完全忽略了这一点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed22002670360778cb46af429c3e6fd\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Real Yields vs. S&P500(Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p><blockquote>实际收益率与标准普尔 500 指数(彭博社、摩根士丹利研究)</blockquote></p><p><b>The key driver of the latest rally was short-covering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近一次反弹的主要驱动力是空头回补</b></blockquote></p><p>As many investors / traders followed the inflation print and saw a market rally, they massively closed their short positions or bets, which led to a significant rally from the bottom. That's the true reason why the market rallied in the previous weeks. And it only makes sense to me because macro fundamentals such as real yields and other leading indicators have all worsened, just hand in hand with a strong labor market. Despite the rise in real yields, the market rallied in recent weeks, their negative correlation deviated significantly from normal conditions, giving me no reason to be bullish from a macro perspective.</p><p><blockquote>由于许多投资者/交易员关注通胀数据并看到市场反弹,他们大规模平仓空头头寸或押注,这导致了从底部的大幅反弹。这就是前几周市场反弹的真正原因。这对我来说才有意义,因为实际收益率和其他领先指标等宏观基本面都在恶化,而这恰恰与强劲的劳动力市场齐头并进。尽管实际收益率上升,但最近几周市场反弹,它们的负相关关系明显偏离了正常情况,从宏观角度来看,我没有理由看涨。</blockquote></p><p>On the contrary, as I said, the rally was caused mainly by short covering (the closing of short position) and it was the 3rd most aggressive short-covering in the latest ten years.</p><p><blockquote>相反,正如我所说,这次反弹主要是由空头回补(空头头寸的平仓)引起的,这是近十年来第三大最激进的空头回补。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4500679330262cedb633a0fba418e7ad\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Short covering / Short selling(GS Prime Book via Investro)</p><p><blockquote>空头回补/卖空(GS Prime Book via Investro)</blockquote></p><p>And also a great chart from @MacroCharts, which measures the sum of (QQQ) deltas, indicated that this massive rally was caused by a full switch of position. As there are monitored deltas for QQQ, I believe it will be similar for the S&P 500 or SPY, because major stocks from QQQ are also integrated with significant weights in SPY. From the extremely short to the extremely long ones. For me, it is absolutely unsustainable to remain at such levels, and the rising probability of further downturn, combined with macro fundamentals, gives me quite strong confidence.</p><p><blockquote>@MacroCharts 的一张很棒的图表(衡量 (QQQ) deltas 的总和)表明,这次大规模反弹是由头寸的完全转换引起的。由于 QQQ 有受监控的增量,我相信标普500或SPDR标普500指数ETF的情况也类似,因为 QQQ 的主要股票也与SPDR标普500指数ETF的重要权重相结合。从极短到极长。对我来说,保持在这样的水平是绝对不可持续的,进一步衰退的概率上升,加上宏观基本面,给了我相当强的信心。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/984923367a1ab56eb4804dde1f6a5a07\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Sum of QQQ Deltas(Charlie Mcelligott / Nomura via @MacroCharts)</p><p><blockquote>QQQ 增量之和(Charlie Mcelligott / Nomura via @MacroCharts)</blockquote></p><p>Another very important measure, which I highly recommend, is to follow short sale volumes for SPY/QQQ and others. The chart below just implies there is a lack of shorts or very low activity in short selling, which is a great contrarian indicator. The 10-day moving average of short sale volume, measured by FINRA, indicates there is a lack of short sale volume, indicates the market is probably exhausted. It also confirms the thesis of short-covering rally in the previous weeks as well. Just look at the significant numbers of short selling in mid June, in hand with the market bottom. There should be no surprises about the following market squeeze or strong short-covering activity. Currently, I see a strong reversal situation, thus giving room for another leg down in SPY. However, I also could be wrong, but combined with the real yields narrative, the worsening economic situation, and the strong contrarian indicator of short sale volume, I am firmly convinced this was another bear market rally.</p><p><blockquote>另一个非常重要的措施,我强烈推荐,是跟踪SPDR标普500指数ETF/QQQ和其他公司的卖空量。下图只是暗示缺乏空头或卖空活动非常低,这是一个很好的逆向指标。FINRA 测量的卖空量 10 天移动平均值表明卖空量不足,表明市场可能已经耗尽。这也证实了前几周空头回补反弹的论点。看看6月中旬的大量卖空,与市场底部齐头并进。接下来的市场挤压或强劲的空头回补活动应该不会有什么意外。目前,我看到了一个强劲的逆转局面,从而为在SPDR标普500指数ETF的另一次下跌腾出了空间。然而,我也可能是错的,但结合实际收益率叙述、不断恶化的经济形势以及卖空量的强劲反向指标,我坚信这是又一次熊市反弹。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Fed believes a soft landing is less likely than the market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储认为软着陆的可能性小于市场</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The reason why I believe such a narrative is caused by FOMC members' statements as well as by the data-driven approach. First of all, there are leading indicators that are screaming to us that inflation as well as economic growth will slow down. However, as previously stated, the YoY will slow, and the MoM will most likely stabilize. However, even if there is a 0% MoM change until the end of the year, inflation will still be significantly above the medium term horizon and above the fed's key target. With so strong numbers from the labor market, the fed can be calm to focus really on inflation and to tame it. The sacrifice would be economic growth. This is the reason why I believe rate hikes will continue until the fed sees a portion of lagging core CPI MoM moving around -0.2% to 0.1% in the medium term.</p><p><blockquote>我之所以相信这种说法是由 FOMC 成员的声明以及数据驱动的方法造成的。首先,有一些领先指标向我们尖叫,通货膨胀和经济增长都将放缓。然而,如前所述,同比将放缓,而 MoM 很可能会企稳。然而,即使年底前 MoM 变化为 0%,通胀仍将大大高于中期水平和美联储的关键目标。有了劳动力市场如此强劲的数据,美联储可以冷静地真正关注通胀并抑制它。牺牲将是经济增长。这就是为什么我认为加息将继续,直到美联储看到部分滞后的核心 CPI MoM 在中期内徘徊在 -0.2% 至 0.1% 左右。</blockquote></p><p>Now, let's summarize some of the latest statements from FOMC members.</p><p><blockquote>现在,让我们总结一下FOMC成员的一些最新声明。</blockquote></p><p>Fed's Bullard, according to Reuters:</p><p><blockquote>据路透社报道,美联储布拉德:</blockquote></p><p><i>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who was among the central bank's earliest advocates last year of a more muscular response to fast-building price pressures, said that given the strength of the economy he is currently leaning toward supporting a third straight 75-basis-point interest rate hike in September.</i>Also, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve,stated earlier on Thursday that raising rates by 50 or 75 basis points at the fed's upcoming policy meeting on September 20-21 would be a "reasonable" way to raise short-term borrowing costs to slightly above 3% by the end of this year and put them on a path to a little bit higher in 2023.</p><p><blockquote><i>圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德 (James Bullard) 是去年最早倡导央行对快速上涨的价格压力采取更强有力的应对措施的人之一,他表示,鉴于经济的实力,他目前倾向于支持连续第三次加息 75 个基点9 月份加息。</i>此外,旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利周四早些时候表示,在美联储即将于 9 月 20 日至 21 日举行的政策会议上加息 50 或 75 个基点将是一种“合理”的方式,可以将短期借贷成本提高到略高于 3% 到今年年底,并使其在 2023 年走上略高的道路。</blockquote></p><p>Also a kindly hawkish note from the Fed's Kashkari:</p><p><blockquote>美联储卡什卡里也发表了友好的鹰派言论:</blockquote></p><p><i>So the question right now is, can we bring inflation down without triggering a recession? And my answer to that question is: I don’t know. Fed has more work to do in raising interest rates to bring inflation down.</i>Despite the better than expected inflation print, the fight is not over and there must be a clear indication of tightening conditions that will continue to bring inflation down. Until then, the market still hopes for a soft-landing as in 2019, but this is really different story. I'm firmly convinced it will bring a bigger economic slowdown than the current one, but I don't know if it will be a big recession. Probably not. But it will be harder than soft-landing. Kashkari is one of the first FOMC members to admit that they are unsure whether it will cause the recession or not. They just can't tell you, "for sure we will cause a recession." However, in the previous months, when the yield curve started to be inverted, the fed screamed that it was not an appropriate indicator of recession. The opposite is the truth.</p><p><blockquote><i>所以现在的问题是,我们能在不引发衰退的情况下降低通胀吗?我对这个问题的回答是:我不知道。美联储在加息以降低通胀方面还有更多工作要做。</i>尽管通胀数据好于预期,但斗争尚未结束,必须有明确的迹象表明紧缩条件将继续降低通胀。在此之前,市场仍然希望像2019年那样软着陆,但这确实是一个不同的故事。我坚信这将带来比当前更大的经济放缓,但我不知道这是否会是一场大衰退。可能不会。但这会比软着陆更难。卡什卡里是首批承认他们不确定这是否会导致经济衰退的联邦公开市场委员会成员之一。他们只是不能告诉你,“我们肯定会导致经济衰退。”然而,在前几个月,当收益率曲线开始倒挂时,美联储尖叫着说,这不是经济衰退的适当指标。事实恰恰相反。</blockquote></p><p>However, the fed released its own indicator of forecasting recession, slightly different than the classic yield curve, which had not been inverted before. It is now fully inverted, which, according to previous fed papers, should clearly indicate a recession going forward. A great chart from@MacroAlfcalculated the development of this indicator, and as it was almost one month ago, it started to be inverted, thus confirming that the fed knows and is aware of the ongoing recession. Regardless of what they say. It was the only opinion as the yield curve started to be inverted that it was better to monitor the "near-term spread," calculated as 18m forward 3m yields minus 3m yields, as it is a much more precise predictor of the upcoming recession.</p><p><blockquote>然而,美联储发布了自己预测衰退的指标,与此前未倒挂的经典收益率曲线略有不同。现在情况完全逆转了,根据美联储之前的文件,这应该清楚地表明未来将出现衰退。@macroalf 的一张很棒的图表计算了该指标的发展,就像大约一个月前一样,它开始倒挂,从而证实美联储知道并意识到正在进行的经济衰退。不管他们怎么说。当收益率曲线开始倒挂时,唯一的意见是最好监控“近期利差”,计算方法是 1800 万美元远期 300 万美元收益率减去 300 万美元收益率,因为它是即将到来的经济衰退的更精确预测指标。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aced83130fc7620517eccea36b9a2d28\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Fed´s preferred yield curve indicator(@MacroAlf)</p><p><blockquote>美联储首选收益率曲线指标(@MacroAlf)</blockquote></p><p><b>Earnings are lagged, CPI too</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利落后,消费者物价指数也落后</b></blockquote></p><p>However, I'm convinced that CPI will go down and the fed will tame inflation. The issue is that there will be an EPS drop as well. To tame inflation rapidly, it is necessary to cause an economic slowdown. However, it is happening right now, and many leading indicators are confirming this thesis. Companies are oversupplied (with inventories), commodity prices are falling, and PMI and new orders are dropping too. Oil is falling; however, natural gas recovered from the total drawdown seen in July. Nevertheless, the macro indicators tell me that inflation will calm down, but the fed needs to continue doing its job and focus on inflation. I also believe that it can cause a mild recession and then we could see slight rate cuts in 2023. The next chart shows the leading indicator - G5 Credit Impulse and its impact on S&P 500 EPS as well as CPI YoY. Both are well lagged vs. their leading indicator, which leads by 4-5 quarters. This also supports our thesis, thus giving room for EPS decline as well as for CPI decline.</p><p><blockquote>不过,我相信CPI会下降,美联储会抑制通胀。问题是每股收益也会下降。要迅速抑制通货膨胀,就必须引起经济放缓。然而,它正在发生,许多领先指标正在证实这一论点。企业供过于求(有库存),大宗商品价格下跌,PMI和新订单也在下降。油价正在下跌;然而,天然气从 7 月份的总体下降中恢复过来。尽管如此,宏观指标告诉我通胀将会平静下来,但美联储需要继续做好工作,关注通胀。我还相信这可能会导致温和衰退,然后我们可能会在 2023 年看到小幅降息。下图显示了领先指标——G5信贷刺激及其对标普500每股收益和CPI同比的影响。两者都远远落后于领先指标,领先4-5个季度。这也支持了我们的论点,从而为每股收益下降和CPI下降提供了空间。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f434d630603e9b6a62684bdcc200676\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>G5 Credit impluse as leading indicator(@MacroAlf)</p><p><blockquote>G5 Credit impluse 作为领先指标 (@MacroAlf)</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Risks and Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险和总结</b></blockquote></p><p>Let's start with the risk to our thesis. The first risk can be that I have wrongly detected another bear market rally and where a bull market started. I do not say we will find the new bottom. Currently, I'm convinced that under current macro circumstances, followed by sale volumes and short-covering narrative, the market is overbought and should decline 5-15% from its current levels. The next risk to this thesis is that inflation will fall fast with a soft-landing. Although I see a little probability, it is still a kind of scenario. When inflation, mainly core inflation, drops significantly, it could cause the fed to stop the tightening cycle and, after 2-3 quarters, to ease conditions rapidly. And that's all without economic damage, with a strong labor market and slight economic growth. Currently, I'm not convinced that is the case.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从我们论文的风险开始。第一个风险可能是我错误地发现了另一轮熊市反弹和牛市开始的地方。我不是说我们会找到新的底部。目前,我确信,在当前的宏观环境下,随着销量和空头回补的叙述,市场超买,应该会从当前水平下跌5-15%。这一论点的下一个风险是,通胀将随着软着陆而快速下降。虽然我看到了一点点概率,但还是一种情景。当通胀(主要是核心通胀)大幅下降时,可能会导致美联储停止紧缩周期,并在2-3个季度后迅速放松政策。这一切都没有造成经济损失,劳动力市场强劲,经济略有增长。目前,我不相信是这样。</blockquote></p><p>In my opinion, the short scenario has significantly bigger odds right now for plenty of reasons: Real yields and the SPY correlation have significantly deteriorated and deviated, which is unsustainable in my opinion. Additionally, we saw that due to strong short-covering rally - the 3rd largest in the last 10 years. Next reason is that there is a lack of short sellers right now, which could indicate a short-term market peak. The market rally could be exhausted because there are no short sellers. The next indicator is the still and tireless statements from FOMC's members, which are still very hawkish, and the best case is to DO NOT FIGHT THE FED. The most recent narrative remains focused on inflation print. Very volatile figures and the most current ones as motor fuel, transportation, and others are down, but it depends on prices (on the market). However, the fed wants to see the most lagging parts as a shelter, services, and demand side inflation to cool down. It will take some time, and I believe we will see that. But also, it will have a negative impact on EPS. Also, I can be wrong, but these are the key reasons why I firmly believe that the market is exhausted (upwards) and a short-term rally downwards could continue.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来,目前空头情景的可能性要大得多,原因有很多:实际收益率和SPDR标普500指数ETF相关性已经显着恶化和偏离,这在我看来是不可持续的。此外,由于强劲的空头回补反弹,我们看到了这一点——这是过去 10 年中的第三大反弹。下一个原因是目前缺乏卖空者,这可能预示着短期市场见顶。市场反弹可能会耗尽,因为没有卖空者。下一个指标是FOMC成员依然不知疲倦的声明,这些声明仍然非常鹰派,最好的情况是不要与美联储对抗。最近的叙述仍然集中在通货膨胀上。非常不稳定的数字,以及汽车燃料、运输和其他最新的数字都在下降,但这取决于(市场上的)价格。然而,美联储希望看到住房、服务和需求方通胀等最滞后的部分降温。这需要一些时间,我相信我们会看到的。但也会对每股收益产生负面影响。此外,我可能是错的,但这些是我坚信市场已经耗尽(向上)并且短期下跌反弹可能会继续的关键原因。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal<blockquote>SPDR标普500指数ETF:是时候退出了,卖空量疲软表明逆转</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal<blockquote>SPDR标普500指数ETF:是时候退出了,卖空量疲软表明逆转</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-23 14:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging to stop the most lagged part of inflation.</li><li>The markets don't realize that fed members are in full hawkish mode. Although the market is certain about a soft-landing, the fed indicator suggests a recession.</li><li>Short-covering contributed to the latest bear market rally significantly. As there are very low short sales volumes right now, the reversion could be next.</li><li>SPY significantly deviated from real yields (strong inverse correlation) and this exemption won't last long.</li><li>The macroeconomic outlook could worsen with additional rate hikes, which is not supportive for EPS.</li></ul>In my most recent bond analysis, which focused on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), inflation, and monetary outlook, we predicted that the YoY and MoM inflation peaks would both occur in the months of July - September. I wagered that commodity prices would decline and that other leading indicators would also dramatically deteriorate. However the Fed responds to the most lagging inflation parts, the CPI/PCE/core CPI report from July is not initially bullish. Lower commodities prices had a significant impact on the MoM's "stabilization," but the most lagging drivers to the CPI - shelter and services are still quite high and are still increasing. The necessary items, which the Fed wants to stabilize, are not stabilizing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基数效应是通胀见顶的根本原因。阻止通货膨胀最滞后的部分将是一项挑战。</li><li>市场没有意识到美联储成员处于完全鹰派模式。尽管市场对软着陆充满信心,但美联储指标表明经济衰退。</li><li>空头回补对最近的熊市反弹做出了重大贡献。由于目前卖空量非常低,下一步可能是回归。</li><li>SPDR标普500指数ETF明显偏离实际收益率(强烈的负相关),这种豁免不会持续太久。</li><li>进一步加息可能会使宏观经济前景恶化,这不利于每股收益。</li></ul>在我最近的债券分析中,我们重点关注 iShares 20+ 年期国债 ETF (TLT)、通胀和货币前景,我们预测同比和环比通胀峰值都将出现在 7 月至 9 月。我打赌大宗商品价格会下跌,其他领先指标也会急剧恶化。无论美联储如何应对最滞后的通胀部分,7月份的CPI/PCE/核心CPI报告最初并不乐观。大宗商品价格下跌对妈妈的“稳定”产生了重大影响,但CPI最滞后的驱动因素——住房和服务仍然相当高,并且还在增加。美联储想要稳定的必需品并没有稳定。</blockquote></p><p>On first glance, the market rallied due to strong data from inflation prints, but in our breakdown, the data has not been strong at all. SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) deviated from the long-term inverse correlation between real yields and SPY's price mainly due to a "strong fundamental week." However, I'm firmly convinced this was another bear market rally. Medium-term inflation expectations rose, which is not a good case for stocks. In summary, we can await more rate hikes to come, more than the market currently prices in.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看,由于通胀数据的强劲数据,市场反弹,但在我们的分析中,数据根本不强劲。SPDR 标普500信托 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) 偏离了实际收益率和 SPY 价格之间的长期负相关关系,主要是由于“基本面强劲的一周”。然而,我坚信这是又一次熊市反弹。中期通胀预期上升,这对股票来说不是一个好案例。总之,我们可以等待更多的加息,比目前市场价格还要高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Inflation breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀细分</b></blockquote></p><p>The CPI's YoY growth was still high at 8.5% and rose in July by zero percent. However, the core CPI rose "only" by 0.2%, which was lower than the consensus. Nevertheless, if you make an inflation breakdown, you will see the drivers. Motor fuel (oil & gas) has contributed very negatively to the overall CPI monthly change. This item is the most current in the lagged CPI. However, the most lagging components of the CPI are housing, food prices, medical care services, and other services, and it will take some time for these inputs to stabilize or decline.</p><p><blockquote>CPI同比增长率仍然高达8.5%,7月份上涨了0个百分点。然而,核心CPI“仅”上涨0.2%,低于市场普遍预期。然而,如果你做一个通货膨胀明细,你会看到驱动因素。汽车燃料(石油和天然气)对整体 CPI 月度变化的影响非常负面。这个项目是滞后的CPI中最新的。然而,CPI中最滞后的组成部分是住房、食品价格、医疗保健服务和其他服务,这些投入的稳定或下降需要一段时间。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32fb983d571f92f960166b97b1eb1e09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CPI monthly change(@MacroAlf)</p><p><blockquote>CPI月度变化(@MacroAlf)</blockquote></p><p>As I stated in my previous analysis on TLT, the consumer destruction will take place in 2-3 months. The issue is that supply-side inflation (mainly oil, gas, and other commodities) can be impacted only indirectly - mainly by lowered demand. That is what we see in the commodity market right now. Industrial commodities and the ones that have a great impact on overall CPI started to decline. But it does not reflect only demand destruction but also the quite strong economic slowdown (forward-looking). I still believe inflation will go down, but mainly due to the strong base effect caused by the measured style-YoY comparison. The much more important figure will be core inflation on a monthly basis.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前对TLT的分析中所说,消费者的毁灭将在2-3个月内发生。问题在于,供应方通胀(主要是石油、天然气和其他大宗商品)只能受到间接影响——主要是需求下降。这就是我们现在在大宗商品市场上看到的情况。工业品和对整体CPI影响较大的商品开始回落。但这不仅反映了需求的破坏,也反映了相当强劲的经济放缓(前瞻性)。我仍然相信通胀会下降,但主要是由于测量的风格-同比比较造成的强劲基数效应。更重要的数字将是每月核心通胀率。</blockquote></p><p>Still, if inflation were to be zero on a monthly basis till the end of the year, it would still be at 6.5%, and if it were to be longer, it would be at 3.3% in March. Still significantly above the fed's medium-term target. I am confident that inflation will fall, and that we will see a significant slowdown in 4Q2022, but this must be accompanied by a continued reduction in consumption and GDP growth forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此,如果到今年年底每月通胀率为零,仍将为 6.5%,如果持续时间更长,3 月份将为 3.3%。仍大大高于美联储的中期目标。我相信通胀将会下降,我们将在 2022 年第四季度看到显着放缓,但这必须伴随着消费和 GDP 增长预测的持续下调。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16abe6e1dd19cfbe7ada120183feb6d6\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Projecting CPI at Year-End(BLS, Cleveland Federal Reserve Nowcast)</p><p><blockquote>年底 CPI 预测(BLS、克利夫兰美联储近期预测)</blockquote></p><p><b>Outlook on the monetary policy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>货币政策展望</b></blockquote></p><p>I'm strongly convinced that inflation will go down on a YoY basis. On the other hand, I'm a little bit less convinced by the MoM point of view. To support this scenario, the fed will need to be very hawkish to convince the market that it will do so. Despite still having a very inverted yield curve, the market started to price in fewer rate cuts than anticipated 2-3 weeks ago. And this is all on the back of lower-than-expected inflation figures from a week ago. The spread between Fed funds futures rates in Dec 2022 and Dec 2023 is reaching less than -0.2, thus implying market expectations of almost only one rate cut till Dec 2023.</p><p><blockquote>我坚信通胀将同比下降。另一方面,我有点不相信妈妈的观点。为了支持这种情况,美联储需要非常鹰派,以说服市场它会这样做。尽管收益率曲线仍然非常倒挂,但市场开始消化比2-3周前预期的更少的降息。而这一切都是基于一周前低于预期的通胀数据。2022年12月和2023年12月联邦基金期货利率之间的利差达到-0.2以下,这意味着市场预期到2023年12月几乎只会降息一次。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a4b790ae098a035c35b830ca03c865\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Spread between FFF 12/2022 and 12/2023(Author´s calculation via Tradingview)</p><p><blockquote>FFF 12/2022 和 12/2023 之间的价差(作者通过 Tradingview 计算)</blockquote></p><p>Despite the fact that the market began slightly repeating the FOMC member's rhetoric, the stocks rallied significantly. It is because the market believed the narrative of "soft-landing" to be more probable than before inflation prints. However, the inflation fight is still not over. I consider this rally unsustainable and not supported by the macro fundamentals. After the inflation print, rates expectations measured by Fed funds futures rose quite significantly.</p><p><blockquote>尽管市场开始略微重复联邦公开市场委员会成员的言论,但股市仍大幅上涨。这是因为市场认为“软着陆”的说法比通胀出现之前更有可能。然而,通胀之战仍未结束。我认为这种反弹是不可持续的,也没有得到宏观基本面的支持。通胀数据公布后,以联邦基金期货衡量的利率预期大幅上升。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33f3f05a2f5ce92a0dc8992ced3b6a53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Rates expectations measured by FFF(Author´s calculations via Tradingview)</p><p><blockquote>FFF 衡量的利率预期(作者通过 Tradingview 计算)</blockquote></p><p>Thus, retail investors are fairly misled by inflation print and soft-landing. This scenario does not support the thesis of being bullish at current levels. However, for me, the very strong narrative stands behind the real yields and SPY. There is a very strong negative correlation among the variables, which the market fully ignored until Friday.</p><p><blockquote>因此,散户投资者被通胀数据和软着陆相当误导。这种情况并不支持在当前水平上看涨的论点。然而,对我来说,真正的收益率和SPDR标普500指数ETF背后是非常强大的叙述。变量之间存在非常强的负相关关系,直到周五市场才完全忽略了这一点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed22002670360778cb46af429c3e6fd\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Real Yields vs. S&P500(Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p><blockquote>实际收益率与标准普尔 500 指数(彭博社、摩根士丹利研究)</blockquote></p><p><b>The key driver of the latest rally was short-covering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近一次反弹的主要驱动力是空头回补</b></blockquote></p><p>As many investors / traders followed the inflation print and saw a market rally, they massively closed their short positions or bets, which led to a significant rally from the bottom. That's the true reason why the market rallied in the previous weeks. And it only makes sense to me because macro fundamentals such as real yields and other leading indicators have all worsened, just hand in hand with a strong labor market. Despite the rise in real yields, the market rallied in recent weeks, their negative correlation deviated significantly from normal conditions, giving me no reason to be bullish from a macro perspective.</p><p><blockquote>由于许多投资者/交易员关注通胀数据并看到市场反弹,他们大规模平仓空头头寸或押注,这导致了从底部的大幅反弹。这就是前几周市场反弹的真正原因。这对我来说才有意义,因为实际收益率和其他领先指标等宏观基本面都在恶化,而这恰恰与强劲的劳动力市场齐头并进。尽管实际收益率上升,但最近几周市场反弹,它们的负相关关系明显偏离了正常情况,从宏观角度来看,我没有理由看涨。</blockquote></p><p>On the contrary, as I said, the rally was caused mainly by short covering (the closing of short position) and it was the 3rd most aggressive short-covering in the latest ten years.</p><p><blockquote>相反,正如我所说,这次反弹主要是由空头回补(空头头寸的平仓)引起的,这是近十年来第三大最激进的空头回补。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4500679330262cedb633a0fba418e7ad\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Short covering / Short selling(GS Prime Book via Investro)</p><p><blockquote>空头回补/卖空(GS Prime Book via Investro)</blockquote></p><p>And also a great chart from @MacroCharts, which measures the sum of (QQQ) deltas, indicated that this massive rally was caused by a full switch of position. As there are monitored deltas for QQQ, I believe it will be similar for the S&P 500 or SPY, because major stocks from QQQ are also integrated with significant weights in SPY. From the extremely short to the extremely long ones. For me, it is absolutely unsustainable to remain at such levels, and the rising probability of further downturn, combined with macro fundamentals, gives me quite strong confidence.</p><p><blockquote>@MacroCharts 的一张很棒的图表(衡量 (QQQ) deltas 的总和)表明,这次大规模反弹是由头寸的完全转换引起的。由于 QQQ 有受监控的增量,我相信标普500或SPDR标普500指数ETF的情况也类似,因为 QQQ 的主要股票也与SPDR标普500指数ETF的重要权重相结合。从极短到极长。对我来说,保持在这样的水平是绝对不可持续的,进一步衰退的概率上升,加上宏观基本面,给了我相当强的信心。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/984923367a1ab56eb4804dde1f6a5a07\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Sum of QQQ Deltas(Charlie Mcelligott / Nomura via @MacroCharts)</p><p><blockquote>QQQ 增量之和(Charlie Mcelligott / Nomura via @MacroCharts)</blockquote></p><p>Another very important measure, which I highly recommend, is to follow short sale volumes for SPY/QQQ and others. The chart below just implies there is a lack of shorts or very low activity in short selling, which is a great contrarian indicator. The 10-day moving average of short sale volume, measured by FINRA, indicates there is a lack of short sale volume, indicates the market is probably exhausted. It also confirms the thesis of short-covering rally in the previous weeks as well. Just look at the significant numbers of short selling in mid June, in hand with the market bottom. There should be no surprises about the following market squeeze or strong short-covering activity. Currently, I see a strong reversal situation, thus giving room for another leg down in SPY. However, I also could be wrong, but combined with the real yields narrative, the worsening economic situation, and the strong contrarian indicator of short sale volume, I am firmly convinced this was another bear market rally.</p><p><blockquote>另一个非常重要的措施,我强烈推荐,是跟踪SPDR标普500指数ETF/QQQ和其他公司的卖空量。下图只是暗示缺乏空头或卖空活动非常低,这是一个很好的逆向指标。FINRA 测量的卖空量 10 天移动平均值表明卖空量不足,表明市场可能已经耗尽。这也证实了前几周空头回补反弹的论点。看看6月中旬的大量卖空,与市场底部齐头并进。接下来的市场挤压或强劲的空头回补活动应该不会有什么意外。目前,我看到了一个强劲的逆转局面,从而为在SPDR标普500指数ETF的另一次下跌腾出了空间。然而,我也可能是错的,但结合实际收益率叙述、不断恶化的经济形势以及卖空量的强劲反向指标,我坚信这是又一次熊市反弹。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Fed believes a soft landing is less likely than the market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储认为软着陆的可能性小于市场</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The reason why I believe such a narrative is caused by FOMC members' statements as well as by the data-driven approach. First of all, there are leading indicators that are screaming to us that inflation as well as economic growth will slow down. However, as previously stated, the YoY will slow, and the MoM will most likely stabilize. However, even if there is a 0% MoM change until the end of the year, inflation will still be significantly above the medium term horizon and above the fed's key target. With so strong numbers from the labor market, the fed can be calm to focus really on inflation and to tame it. The sacrifice would be economic growth. This is the reason why I believe rate hikes will continue until the fed sees a portion of lagging core CPI MoM moving around -0.2% to 0.1% in the medium term.</p><p><blockquote>我之所以相信这种说法是由 FOMC 成员的声明以及数据驱动的方法造成的。首先,有一些领先指标向我们尖叫,通货膨胀和经济增长都将放缓。然而,如前所述,同比将放缓,而 MoM 很可能会企稳。然而,即使年底前 MoM 变化为 0%,通胀仍将大大高于中期水平和美联储的关键目标。有了劳动力市场如此强劲的数据,美联储可以冷静地真正关注通胀并抑制它。牺牲将是经济增长。这就是为什么我认为加息将继续,直到美联储看到部分滞后的核心 CPI MoM 在中期内徘徊在 -0.2% 至 0.1% 左右。</blockquote></p><p>Now, let's summarize some of the latest statements from FOMC members.</p><p><blockquote>现在,让我们总结一下FOMC成员的一些最新声明。</blockquote></p><p>Fed's Bullard, according to Reuters:</p><p><blockquote>据路透社报道,美联储布拉德:</blockquote></p><p><i>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who was among the central bank's earliest advocates last year of a more muscular response to fast-building price pressures, said that given the strength of the economy he is currently leaning toward supporting a third straight 75-basis-point interest rate hike in September.</i>Also, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve,stated earlier on Thursday that raising rates by 50 or 75 basis points at the fed's upcoming policy meeting on September 20-21 would be a "reasonable" way to raise short-term borrowing costs to slightly above 3% by the end of this year and put them on a path to a little bit higher in 2023.</p><p><blockquote><i>圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德 (James Bullard) 是去年最早倡导央行对快速上涨的价格压力采取更强有力的应对措施的人之一,他表示,鉴于经济的实力,他目前倾向于支持连续第三次加息 75 个基点9 月份加息。</i>此外,旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利周四早些时候表示,在美联储即将于 9 月 20 日至 21 日举行的政策会议上加息 50 或 75 个基点将是一种“合理”的方式,可以将短期借贷成本提高到略高于 3% 到今年年底,并使其在 2023 年走上略高的道路。</blockquote></p><p>Also a kindly hawkish note from the Fed's Kashkari:</p><p><blockquote>美联储卡什卡里也发表了友好的鹰派言论:</blockquote></p><p><i>So the question right now is, can we bring inflation down without triggering a recession? And my answer to that question is: I don’t know. Fed has more work to do in raising interest rates to bring inflation down.</i>Despite the better than expected inflation print, the fight is not over and there must be a clear indication of tightening conditions that will continue to bring inflation down. Until then, the market still hopes for a soft-landing as in 2019, but this is really different story. I'm firmly convinced it will bring a bigger economic slowdown than the current one, but I don't know if it will be a big recession. Probably not. But it will be harder than soft-landing. Kashkari is one of the first FOMC members to admit that they are unsure whether it will cause the recession or not. They just can't tell you, "for sure we will cause a recession." However, in the previous months, when the yield curve started to be inverted, the fed screamed that it was not an appropriate indicator of recession. The opposite is the truth.</p><p><blockquote><i>所以现在的问题是,我们能在不引发衰退的情况下降低通胀吗?我对这个问题的回答是:我不知道。美联储在加息以降低通胀方面还有更多工作要做。</i>尽管通胀数据好于预期,但斗争尚未结束,必须有明确的迹象表明紧缩条件将继续降低通胀。在此之前,市场仍然希望像2019年那样软着陆,但这确实是一个不同的故事。我坚信这将带来比当前更大的经济放缓,但我不知道这是否会是一场大衰退。可能不会。但这会比软着陆更难。卡什卡里是首批承认他们不确定这是否会导致经济衰退的联邦公开市场委员会成员之一。他们只是不能告诉你,“我们肯定会导致经济衰退。”然而,在前几个月,当收益率曲线开始倒挂时,美联储尖叫着说,这不是经济衰退的适当指标。事实恰恰相反。</blockquote></p><p>However, the fed released its own indicator of forecasting recession, slightly different than the classic yield curve, which had not been inverted before. It is now fully inverted, which, according to previous fed papers, should clearly indicate a recession going forward. A great chart from@MacroAlfcalculated the development of this indicator, and as it was almost one month ago, it started to be inverted, thus confirming that the fed knows and is aware of the ongoing recession. Regardless of what they say. It was the only opinion as the yield curve started to be inverted that it was better to monitor the "near-term spread," calculated as 18m forward 3m yields minus 3m yields, as it is a much more precise predictor of the upcoming recession.</p><p><blockquote>然而,美联储发布了自己预测衰退的指标,与此前未倒挂的经典收益率曲线略有不同。现在情况完全逆转了,根据美联储之前的文件,这应该清楚地表明未来将出现衰退。@macroalf 的一张很棒的图表计算了该指标的发展,就像大约一个月前一样,它开始倒挂,从而证实美联储知道并意识到正在进行的经济衰退。不管他们怎么说。当收益率曲线开始倒挂时,唯一的意见是最好监控“近期利差”,计算方法是 1800 万美元远期 300 万美元收益率减去 300 万美元收益率,因为它是即将到来的经济衰退的更精确预测指标。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aced83130fc7620517eccea36b9a2d28\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Fed´s preferred yield curve indicator(@MacroAlf)</p><p><blockquote>美联储首选收益率曲线指标(@MacroAlf)</blockquote></p><p><b>Earnings are lagged, CPI too</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利落后,消费者物价指数也落后</b></blockquote></p><p>However, I'm convinced that CPI will go down and the fed will tame inflation. The issue is that there will be an EPS drop as well. To tame inflation rapidly, it is necessary to cause an economic slowdown. However, it is happening right now, and many leading indicators are confirming this thesis. Companies are oversupplied (with inventories), commodity prices are falling, and PMI and new orders are dropping too. Oil is falling; however, natural gas recovered from the total drawdown seen in July. Nevertheless, the macro indicators tell me that inflation will calm down, but the fed needs to continue doing its job and focus on inflation. I also believe that it can cause a mild recession and then we could see slight rate cuts in 2023. The next chart shows the leading indicator - G5 Credit Impulse and its impact on S&P 500 EPS as well as CPI YoY. Both are well lagged vs. their leading indicator, which leads by 4-5 quarters. This also supports our thesis, thus giving room for EPS decline as well as for CPI decline.</p><p><blockquote>不过,我相信CPI会下降,美联储会抑制通胀。问题是每股收益也会下降。要迅速抑制通货膨胀,就必须引起经济放缓。然而,它正在发生,许多领先指标正在证实这一论点。企业供过于求(有库存),大宗商品价格下跌,PMI和新订单也在下降。油价正在下跌;然而,天然气从 7 月份的总体下降中恢复过来。尽管如此,宏观指标告诉我通胀将会平静下来,但美联储需要继续做好工作,关注通胀。我还相信这可能会导致温和衰退,然后我们可能会在 2023 年看到小幅降息。下图显示了领先指标——G5信贷刺激及其对标普500每股收益和CPI同比的影响。两者都远远落后于领先指标,领先4-5个季度。这也支持了我们的论点,从而为每股收益下降和CPI下降提供了空间。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f434d630603e9b6a62684bdcc200676\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>G5 Credit impluse as leading indicator(@MacroAlf)</p><p><blockquote>G5 Credit impluse 作为领先指标 (@MacroAlf)</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Risks and Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险和总结</b></blockquote></p><p>Let's start with the risk to our thesis. The first risk can be that I have wrongly detected another bear market rally and where a bull market started. I do not say we will find the new bottom. Currently, I'm convinced that under current macro circumstances, followed by sale volumes and short-covering narrative, the market is overbought and should decline 5-15% from its current levels. The next risk to this thesis is that inflation will fall fast with a soft-landing. Although I see a little probability, it is still a kind of scenario. When inflation, mainly core inflation, drops significantly, it could cause the fed to stop the tightening cycle and, after 2-3 quarters, to ease conditions rapidly. And that's all without economic damage, with a strong labor market and slight economic growth. Currently, I'm not convinced that is the case.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从我们论文的风险开始。第一个风险可能是我错误地发现了另一轮熊市反弹和牛市开始的地方。我不是说我们会找到新的底部。目前,我确信,在当前的宏观环境下,随着销量和空头回补的叙述,市场超买,应该会从当前水平下跌5-15%。这一论点的下一个风险是,通胀将随着软着陆而快速下降。虽然我看到了一点点概率,但还是一种情景。当通胀(主要是核心通胀)大幅下降时,可能会导致美联储停止紧缩周期,并在2-3个季度后迅速放松政策。这一切都没有造成经济损失,劳动力市场强劲,经济略有增长。目前,我不相信是这样。</blockquote></p><p>In my opinion, the short scenario has significantly bigger odds right now for plenty of reasons: Real yields and the SPY correlation have significantly deteriorated and deviated, which is unsustainable in my opinion. Additionally, we saw that due to strong short-covering rally - the 3rd largest in the last 10 years. Next reason is that there is a lack of short sellers right now, which could indicate a short-term market peak. The market rally could be exhausted because there are no short sellers. The next indicator is the still and tireless statements from FOMC's members, which are still very hawkish, and the best case is to DO NOT FIGHT THE FED. The most recent narrative remains focused on inflation print. Very volatile figures and the most current ones as motor fuel, transportation, and others are down, but it depends on prices (on the market). However, the fed wants to see the most lagging parts as a shelter, services, and demand side inflation to cool down. It will take some time, and I believe we will see that. But also, it will have a negative impact on EPS. Also, I can be wrong, but these are the key reasons why I firmly believe that the market is exhausted (upwards) and a short-term rally downwards could continue.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来,目前空头情景的可能性要大得多,原因有很多:实际收益率和SPDR标普500指数ETF相关性已经显着恶化和偏离,这在我看来是不可持续的。此外,由于强劲的空头回补反弹,我们看到了这一点——这是过去 10 年中的第三大反弹。下一个原因是目前缺乏卖空者,这可能预示着短期市场见顶。市场反弹可能会耗尽,因为没有卖空者。下一个指标是FOMC成员依然不知疲倦的声明,这些声明仍然非常鹰派,最好的情况是不要与美联储对抗。最近的叙述仍然集中在通货膨胀上。非常不稳定的数字,以及汽车燃料、运输和其他最新的数字都在下降,但这取决于(市场上的)价格。然而,美联储希望看到住房、服务和需求方通胀等最滞后的部分降温。这需要一些时间,我相信我们会看到的。但也会对每股收益产生负面影响。此外,我可能是错的,但这些是我坚信市场已经耗尽(向上)并且短期下跌反弹可能会继续的关键原因。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536168-spy-time-to-get-out-weak-short-sale-volumes-indicate-reversal\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536168-spy-time-to-get-out-weak-short-sale-volumes-indicate-reversal","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113960584","content_text":"SummaryThe base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging to stop the most lagged part of inflation.The markets don't realize that fed members are in full hawkish mode. Although the market is certain about a soft-landing, the fed indicator suggests a recession.Short-covering contributed to the latest bear market rally significantly. As there are very low short sales volumes right now, the reversion could be next.SPY significantly deviated from real yields (strong inverse correlation) and this exemption won't last long.The macroeconomic outlook could worsen with additional rate hikes, which is not supportive for EPS.In my most recent bond analysis, which focused on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), inflation, and monetary outlook, we predicted that the YoY and MoM inflation peaks would both occur in the months of July - September. I wagered that commodity prices would decline and that other leading indicators would also dramatically deteriorate. However the Fed responds to the most lagging inflation parts, the CPI/PCE/core CPI report from July is not initially bullish. Lower commodities prices had a significant impact on the MoM's \"stabilization,\" but the most lagging drivers to the CPI - shelter and services are still quite high and are still increasing. The necessary items, which the Fed wants to stabilize, are not stabilizing.On first glance, the market rallied due to strong data from inflation prints, but in our breakdown, the data has not been strong at all. SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) deviated from the long-term inverse correlation between real yields and SPY's price mainly due to a \"strong fundamental week.\" However, I'm firmly convinced this was another bear market rally. Medium-term inflation expectations rose, which is not a good case for stocks. In summary, we can await more rate hikes to come, more than the market currently prices in.Inflation breakdownThe CPI's YoY growth was still high at 8.5% and rose in July by zero percent. However, the core CPI rose \"only\" by 0.2%, which was lower than the consensus. Nevertheless, if you make an inflation breakdown, you will see the drivers. Motor fuel (oil & gas) has contributed very negatively to the overall CPI monthly change. This item is the most current in the lagged CPI. However, the most lagging components of the CPI are housing, food prices, medical care services, and other services, and it will take some time for these inputs to stabilize or decline.CPI monthly change(@MacroAlf)As I stated in my previous analysis on TLT, the consumer destruction will take place in 2-3 months. The issue is that supply-side inflation (mainly oil, gas, and other commodities) can be impacted only indirectly - mainly by lowered demand. That is what we see in the commodity market right now. Industrial commodities and the ones that have a great impact on overall CPI started to decline. But it does not reflect only demand destruction but also the quite strong economic slowdown (forward-looking). I still believe inflation will go down, but mainly due to the strong base effect caused by the measured style-YoY comparison. The much more important figure will be core inflation on a monthly basis.Still, if inflation were to be zero on a monthly basis till the end of the year, it would still be at 6.5%, and if it were to be longer, it would be at 3.3% in March. Still significantly above the fed's medium-term target. I am confident that inflation will fall, and that we will see a significant slowdown in 4Q2022, but this must be accompanied by a continued reduction in consumption and GDP growth forecasts.Projecting CPI at Year-End(BLS, Cleveland Federal Reserve Nowcast)Outlook on the monetary policyI'm strongly convinced that inflation will go down on a YoY basis. On the other hand, I'm a little bit less convinced by the MoM point of view. To support this scenario, the fed will need to be very hawkish to convince the market that it will do so. Despite still having a very inverted yield curve, the market started to price in fewer rate cuts than anticipated 2-3 weeks ago. And this is all on the back of lower-than-expected inflation figures from a week ago. The spread between Fed funds futures rates in Dec 2022 and Dec 2023 is reaching less than -0.2, thus implying market expectations of almost only one rate cut till Dec 2023.Spread between FFF 12/2022 and 12/2023(Author´s calculation via Tradingview)Despite the fact that the market began slightly repeating the FOMC member's rhetoric, the stocks rallied significantly. It is because the market believed the narrative of \"soft-landing\" to be more probable than before inflation prints. However, the inflation fight is still not over. I consider this rally unsustainable and not supported by the macro fundamentals. After the inflation print, rates expectations measured by Fed funds futures rose quite significantly.Rates expectations measured by FFF(Author´s calculations via Tradingview)Thus, retail investors are fairly misled by inflation print and soft-landing. This scenario does not support the thesis of being bullish at current levels. However, for me, the very strong narrative stands behind the real yields and SPY. There is a very strong negative correlation among the variables, which the market fully ignored until Friday.Real Yields vs. S&P500(Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research)The key driver of the latest rally was short-coveringAs many investors / traders followed the inflation print and saw a market rally, they massively closed their short positions or bets, which led to a significant rally from the bottom. That's the true reason why the market rallied in the previous weeks. And it only makes sense to me because macro fundamentals such as real yields and other leading indicators have all worsened, just hand in hand with a strong labor market. Despite the rise in real yields, the market rallied in recent weeks, their negative correlation deviated significantly from normal conditions, giving me no reason to be bullish from a macro perspective.On the contrary, as I said, the rally was caused mainly by short covering (the closing of short position) and it was the 3rd most aggressive short-covering in the latest ten years.Short covering / Short selling(GS Prime Book via Investro)And also a great chart from @MacroCharts, which measures the sum of (QQQ) deltas, indicated that this massive rally was caused by a full switch of position. As there are monitored deltas for QQQ, I believe it will be similar for the S&P 500 or SPY, because major stocks from QQQ are also integrated with significant weights in SPY. From the extremely short to the extremely long ones. For me, it is absolutely unsustainable to remain at such levels, and the rising probability of further downturn, combined with macro fundamentals, gives me quite strong confidence.Sum of QQQ Deltas(Charlie Mcelligott / Nomura via @MacroCharts)Another very important measure, which I highly recommend, is to follow short sale volumes for SPY/QQQ and others. The chart below just implies there is a lack of shorts or very low activity in short selling, which is a great contrarian indicator. The 10-day moving average of short sale volume, measured by FINRA, indicates there is a lack of short sale volume, indicates the market is probably exhausted. It also confirms the thesis of short-covering rally in the previous weeks as well. Just look at the significant numbers of short selling in mid June, in hand with the market bottom. There should be no surprises about the following market squeeze or strong short-covering activity. Currently, I see a strong reversal situation, thus giving room for another leg down in SPY. However, I also could be wrong, but combined with the real yields narrative, the worsening economic situation, and the strong contrarian indicator of short sale volume, I am firmly convinced this was another bear market rally.The Fed believes a soft landing is less likely than the marketThe reason why I believe such a narrative is caused by FOMC members' statements as well as by the data-driven approach. First of all, there are leading indicators that are screaming to us that inflation as well as economic growth will slow down. However, as previously stated, the YoY will slow, and the MoM will most likely stabilize. However, even if there is a 0% MoM change until the end of the year, inflation will still be significantly above the medium term horizon and above the fed's key target. With so strong numbers from the labor market, the fed can be calm to focus really on inflation and to tame it. The sacrifice would be economic growth. This is the reason why I believe rate hikes will continue until the fed sees a portion of lagging core CPI MoM moving around -0.2% to 0.1% in the medium term.Now, let's summarize some of the latest statements from FOMC members.Fed's Bullard, according to Reuters:St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who was among the central bank's earliest advocates last year of a more muscular response to fast-building price pressures, said that given the strength of the economy he is currently leaning toward supporting a third straight 75-basis-point interest rate hike in September.Also, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve,stated earlier on Thursday that raising rates by 50 or 75 basis points at the fed's upcoming policy meeting on September 20-21 would be a \"reasonable\" way to raise short-term borrowing costs to slightly above 3% by the end of this year and put them on a path to a little bit higher in 2023.Also a kindly hawkish note from the Fed's Kashkari:So the question right now is, can we bring inflation down without triggering a recession? And my answer to that question is: I don’t know. Fed has more work to do in raising interest rates to bring inflation down.Despite the better than expected inflation print, the fight is not over and there must be a clear indication of tightening conditions that will continue to bring inflation down. Until then, the market still hopes for a soft-landing as in 2019, but this is really different story. I'm firmly convinced it will bring a bigger economic slowdown than the current one, but I don't know if it will be a big recession. Probably not. But it will be harder than soft-landing. Kashkari is one of the first FOMC members to admit that they are unsure whether it will cause the recession or not. They just can't tell you, \"for sure we will cause a recession.\" However, in the previous months, when the yield curve started to be inverted, the fed screamed that it was not an appropriate indicator of recession. The opposite is the truth.However, the fed released its own indicator of forecasting recession, slightly different than the classic yield curve, which had not been inverted before. It is now fully inverted, which, according to previous fed papers, should clearly indicate a recession going forward. A great chart from@MacroAlfcalculated the development of this indicator, and as it was almost one month ago, it started to be inverted, thus confirming that the fed knows and is aware of the ongoing recession. Regardless of what they say. It was the only opinion as the yield curve started to be inverted that it was better to monitor the \"near-term spread,\" calculated as 18m forward 3m yields minus 3m yields, as it is a much more precise predictor of the upcoming recession.Fed´s preferred yield curve indicator(@MacroAlf)Earnings are lagged, CPI tooHowever, I'm convinced that CPI will go down and the fed will tame inflation. The issue is that there will be an EPS drop as well. To tame inflation rapidly, it is necessary to cause an economic slowdown. However, it is happening right now, and many leading indicators are confirming this thesis. Companies are oversupplied (with inventories), commodity prices are falling, and PMI and new orders are dropping too. Oil is falling; however, natural gas recovered from the total drawdown seen in July. Nevertheless, the macro indicators tell me that inflation will calm down, but the fed needs to continue doing its job and focus on inflation. I also believe that it can cause a mild recession and then we could see slight rate cuts in 2023. The next chart shows the leading indicator - G5 Credit Impulse and its impact on S&P 500 EPS as well as CPI YoY. Both are well lagged vs. their leading indicator, which leads by 4-5 quarters. This also supports our thesis, thus giving room for EPS decline as well as for CPI decline.G5 Credit impluse as leading indicator(@MacroAlf)Risks and SummaryLet's start with the risk to our thesis. The first risk can be that I have wrongly detected another bear market rally and where a bull market started. I do not say we will find the new bottom. Currently, I'm convinced that under current macro circumstances, followed by sale volumes and short-covering narrative, the market is overbought and should decline 5-15% from its current levels. The next risk to this thesis is that inflation will fall fast with a soft-landing. Although I see a little probability, it is still a kind of scenario. When inflation, mainly core inflation, drops significantly, it could cause the fed to stop the tightening cycle and, after 2-3 quarters, to ease conditions rapidly. And that's all without economic damage, with a strong labor market and slight economic growth. Currently, I'm not convinced that is the case.In my opinion, the short scenario has significantly bigger odds right now for plenty of reasons: Real yields and the SPY correlation have significantly deteriorated and deviated, which is unsustainable in my opinion. Additionally, we saw that due to strong short-covering rally - the 3rd largest in the last 10 years. Next reason is that there is a lack of short sellers right now, which could indicate a short-term market peak. The market rally could be exhausted because there are no short sellers. The next indicator is the still and tireless statements from FOMC's members, which are still very hawkish, and the best case is to DO NOT FIGHT THE FED. The most recent narrative remains focused on inflation print. Very volatile figures and the most current ones as motor fuel, transportation, and others are down, but it depends on prices (on the market). However, the fed wants to see the most lagging parts as a shelter, services, and demand side inflation to cool down. It will take some time, and I believe we will see that. But also, it will have a negative impact on EPS. Also, I can be wrong, but these are the key reasons why I firmly believe that the market is exhausted (upwards) and a short-term rally downwards could continue.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685105724,"gmtCreate":1659480599870,"gmtModify":1659485803098,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570187411453325","authorIdStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Something to rejoice about in this turbulent market condition =)","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Something to rejoice about in this turbulent market condition =)","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Something to rejoice about in this turbulent market condition =)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfba5f333584f2ac4b51573a0ba30bef","width":"1640","height":"1888"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685105724","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685105028,"gmtCreate":1659479638069,"gmtModify":1659479641458,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570187411453325","authorIdStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for sharing. Hopefully the author is wrong about Tesla.","listText":"Thanks for sharing. Hopefully the author is wrong about Tesla.","text":"Thanks for sharing. Hopefully the author is wrong about Tesla.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685105028","repostId":"2256654277","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":682501479,"gmtCreate":1659055223795,"gmtModify":1659055227283,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570187411453325","authorIdStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I am so glad !!","listText":"I am so glad !!","text":"I am so glad !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682501479","repostId":"2255308108","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2255308108","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1659040383,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2255308108?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-29 04:33","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Apple CFO Says Supply Chain Issues In June Quarter Cost Under $4B In Sales<blockquote>苹果首席财务官表示,6 月份季度的供应链问题导致销售额低于 40 亿美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2255308108","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"-Reuters","content":"<p><html><body>-Reuters</p><p><blockquote><html><body>-路透社</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple CFO Says Supply Chain Issues In June Quarter Cost Under $4B In Sales<blockquote>苹果首席财务官表示,6 月份季度的供应链问题导致销售额低于 40 亿美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple CFO Says Supply Chain Issues In June Quarter Cost Under $4B In Sales<blockquote>苹果首席财务官表示,6 月份季度的供应链问题导致销售额低于 40 亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-29 04:33</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>-Reuters</p><p><blockquote><html><body>-路透社</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/22/07/28256587/apple-cfo-says-supply-chain-issues-in-june-quarter-cost-under-4b-in-sales","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2255308108","content_text":"-Reuters","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":682501264,"gmtCreate":1659055169763,"gmtModify":1659055175928,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570187411453325","authorIdStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"So happy to hear the passing of the bill for the future of America :)","listText":"So happy to hear the passing of the bill for the future of America :)","text":"So happy to hear the passing of the bill for the future of America :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682501264","repostId":"2255058293","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}