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哈喽神
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哈喽神
哈喽神
·
04-30
这波分化其实核心就在‘变现能力’四个字。谷歌大涨是因为云业务证明了AI能赚钱，市场买账；Meta大跌是因为扎克伯格又要‘烧钱’搞元宇宙/AI基建，但短期看不到回报，华尔街没耐心了。巨头们继续加码资本开支，最直接利好的肯定是上游硬件端。不管是Meta还是谷歌，只要还在买显卡、建数据中心，英伟达、台积电、博通以及光模块、存储版块的业绩就有保障。现在的策略我觉得是：回避软件股（微软、meta），拥抱有业绩的Al硬件股、基建股（Mu、台积电、博通）[你懂的] [思考]
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哈喽神
哈喽神
·
04-29
看好谷歌微涨，不过现在这些科技巨头已经在高位了，市场也担心巨头的资本支出，还有Al发展。 大盘应该会回调一些了，Meta应该会跌不少。
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哈喽神
哈喽神
·
04-27
看好谷歌，谷歌的云业务正在高速增长，广告业务在Al赋能的情况下稳健增长。 资本开支虽然高，但主要用于，主要用于TPU芯片、数据中心和AI算力。谷歌的算力仍供不应求，与Anthropic等客户签订长期算力协议，确保未来收入可见性。 谷歌有自研TPU，还有GeminiAl大模型 ,Gemini月活用户超7.5亿，Enterprise付费席位超800万。可以说谷歌现在是美国科技巨头唯一的全栈Al生态链公司。 [爱你] [你懂的]
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哈喽神
哈喽神
·
04-25
目前来看，没有错杀。持股的话只能继续等待。 传统SaaS公司（软件公司）之所以能获得高估值，本质是因为其“高毛利+高续费率+可预测增长”，但当AI开始降低软件使用门槛、甚至直接替代软件功能时，这种可预测性正在被削弱，估值体系自然面临重构。 在Al不断进化的情况下，软件公司需要证明盈利的持续性，还有不会被Al颠覆 [正经]
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哈喽神
哈喽神
·
2025-09-24
现在要看openai的业绩能不能年年增长，不能的话这泡沫就要炸 [正经]
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哈喽神
哈喽神
·
2025-09-16
430美元，目前看多特斯拉。特斯拉机器人概念很火 [财迷]
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哈喽神
哈喽神
·
2025-09-02
ETF更好，更均衡 [财迷]
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哈喽神
哈喽神
·
2025-08-28
短期看空阿里，外卖补贴大战，是恶性竞争。阿里、美团、京东都损失惨重。
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哈喽神
哈喽神
·
2025-08-27
没上车，感觉新能源汽车竞争是目前最激烈的行业之一，蔚来的实力最强吗？应该是波段行情吧[思考]
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哈喽神
哈喽神
·
2025-08-27
不好说吧，第三季度情况会更差。 第三季度是阿里、美团、京东三家一起外卖补贴大战。补贴更大，竞争更激烈的。第二季度的情况还是小场面。不算利空出尽喔[吃瓜]
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[你懂的]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/558154953590400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":557132391247936,"gmtCreate":1777050338811,"gmtModify":1777050342634,"author":{"id":"3569643701206332","authorId":"3569643701206332","name":"哈喽神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7d95e51f52763b03c658192cabacbe","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569643701206332","idStr":"3569643701206332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"目前来看，没有错杀。持股的话只能继续等待。 传统SaaS公司（软件公司）之所以能获得高估值，本质是因为其“高毛利+高续费率+可预测增长”，但当AI开始降低软件使用门槛、甚至直接替代软件功能时，这种可预测性正在被削弱，估值体系自然面临重构。 在Al不断进化的情况下，软件公司需要证明盈利的持续性，还有不会被Al颠覆 [正经]","listText":"目前来看，没有错杀。持股的话只能继续等待。 传统SaaS公司（软件公司）之所以能获得高估值，本质是因为其“高毛利+高续费率+可预测增长”，但当AI开始降低软件使用门槛、甚至直接替代软件功能时，这种可预测性正在被削弱，估值体系自然面临重构。 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