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鸡毛能上天
鸡毛能上天
·
05-23
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
高盛给了卖出评级
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3
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1
编组 21备份 2
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鸡毛能上天
鸡毛能上天
·
05-15
$COHERENT(COHR)$
高意这才7000亿市值
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1
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2
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鸡毛能上天
鸡毛能上天
·
05-07
$三星电子(SMSD.UK)$
大涨了,牛啊
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583
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1
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鸡毛能上天
鸡毛能上天
·
02-20
$Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$
Spotify is a mirecle
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1
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鸡毛能上天
鸡毛能上天
·
2025-11-16
写的很好
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鸡毛能上天
鸡毛能上天
·
2025-11-16
资金体量相关,大资金想做短线也难以做到,必须价值投资,小资金灵活,收益能覆盖交易成本还是可行的
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2,619
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1
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鸡毛能上天
鸡毛能上天
·
2025-11-01
$阿尔尼拉姆制药公司(ALNY)$
期待zilebesiran通过临床试验,及早上市,为难治性高血压提供帮助
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鸡毛能上天
鸡毛能上天
·
2025-10-15
大神,讲讲逻辑
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鸡毛能上天
鸡毛能上天
·
2025-10-05
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
国内软件怎么看到收盘价是3912.1美元
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鸡毛能上天
鸡毛能上天
·
2025-09-29
减仓了吗
“巴菲特指标”突破200%警戒线!美股估值超越“玩火”水平,但也有观点认为这一指标已“过时”
在2001年《财富》杂志的一篇专栏中,巴菲特称这一指标“可能是判断任何时点估值水平的最佳单一衡量标准”。如今,这一指标高达217%,远超互联网泡沫时期的峰值,也超过了2021年疫情时期股市狂热时达到的190%。不过,也有人认为巴菲特指标的意义已不如从前。巴菲特本人已经多年未对这一指标发表评论。
“巴菲特指标”突破200%警戒线!美股估值超越“玩火”水平,但也有观点认为这一指标已“过时”
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高盛给了卖出评级","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/567384724480808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562209764944079","authorId":"3562209764944079","name":"大时代方展博","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97514e68b997948d35f6e86ddb2444bd","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3562209764944079","authorIdStr":"3562209764944079"},"content":"大涨,高盛果然是反向指标,他不怕砸自己招牌吗?","text":"大涨,高盛果然是反向指标,他不怕砸自己招牌吗?","html":"大涨,高盛果然是反向指标,他不怕砸自己招牌吗?"},{"author":{"id":"3457948467745574","authorId":"3457948467745574","name":"阿童木爱呆呆喵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1597003cfde21679cd8b7184ccc3b7c0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3457948467745574","authorIdStr":"3457948467745574"},"content":"高盛从来都是反向指路明灯","text":"高盛从来都是反向指路明灯","html":"高盛从来都是反向指路明灯"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":564377798522160,"gmtCreate":1778821941415,"gmtModify":1778821943445,"author":{"id":"3563430781389062","authorId":"3563430781389062","name":"鸡毛能上天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9061e066bd51a33c814607d129ea622","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563430781389062","authorIdStr":"3563430781389062"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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大涨了,牛啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561613180330648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534834824110488,"gmtCreate":1771595880407,"gmtModify":1771595882395,"author":{"id":"3563430781389062","authorId":"3563430781389062","name":"鸡毛能上天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9061e066bd51a33c814607d129ea622","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563430781389062","authorIdStr":"3563430781389062"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">$Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ </a> Spotify is a mirecle","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">$Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ </a> Spotify is a mirecle","text":"$Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ Spotify is a mirecle","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534834824110488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":500677355069792,"gmtCreate":1763276757439,"gmtModify":1763276759856,"author":{"id":"3563430781389062","authorId":"3563430781389062","name":"鸡毛能上天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9061e066bd51a33c814607d129ea622","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563430781389062","authorIdStr":"3563430781389062"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"写的很好","listText":"写的很好","text":"写的很好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/500677355069792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":500669894123560,"gmtCreate":1763274433034,"gmtModify":1763274435543,"author":{"id":"3563430781389062","authorId":"3563430781389062","name":"鸡毛能上天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9061e066bd51a33c814607d129ea622","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563430781389062","authorIdStr":"3563430781389062"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"资金体量相关,大资金想做短线也难以做到,必须价值投资,小资金灵活,收益能覆盖交易成本还是可行的","listText":"资金体量相关,大资金想做短线也难以做到,必须价值投资,小资金灵活,收益能覆盖交易成本还是可行的","text":"资金体量相关,大资金想做短线也难以做到,必须价值投资,小资金灵活,收益能覆盖交易成本还是可行的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/500669894123560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":495498790735936,"gmtCreate":1762001929832,"gmtModify":1762001931748,"author":{"id":"3563430781389062","authorId":"3563430781389062","name":"鸡毛能上天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9061e066bd51a33c814607d129ea622","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563430781389062","authorIdStr":"3563430781389062"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALNY\">$阿尔尼拉姆制药公司(ALNY)$</a> 期待zilebesiran通过临床试验,及早上市,为难治性高血压提供帮助","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALNY\">$阿尔尼拉姆制药公司(ALNY)$</a> 期待zilebesiran通过临床试验,及早上市,为难治性高血压提供帮助","text":"$阿尔尼拉姆制药公司(ALNY)$ 期待zilebesiran通过临床试验,及早上市,为难治性高血压提供帮助","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/495498790735936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":489521955152752,"gmtCreate":1760539449328,"gmtModify":1760539451704,"author":{"id":"3563430781389062","authorId":"3563430781389062","name":"鸡毛能上天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9061e066bd51a33c814607d129ea622","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563430781389062","authorIdStr":"3563430781389062"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"大神,讲讲逻辑","listText":"大神,讲讲逻辑","text":"大神,讲讲逻辑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/489521955152752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2013,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":485832467357880,"gmtCreate":1759640420651,"gmtModify":1759640422495,"author":{"id":"3563430781389062","authorId":"3563430781389062","name":"鸡毛能上天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9061e066bd51a33c814607d129ea622","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563430781389062","authorIdStr":"3563430781389062"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XAUUSD.FOREX\">$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ </a> 国内软件怎么看到收盘价是3912.1美元","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XAUUSD.FOREX\">$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ </a> 国内软件怎么看到收盘价是3912.1美元","text":"$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ 国内软件怎么看到收盘价是3912.1美元","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/485832467357880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":483643695821368,"gmtCreate":1759105640924,"gmtModify":1759105643062,"author":{"id":"3563430781389062","authorId":"3563430781389062","name":"鸡毛能上天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9061e066bd51a33c814607d129ea622","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563430781389062","authorIdStr":"3563430781389062"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"减仓了吗","listText":"减仓了吗","text":"减仓了吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/483643695821368","repostId":"1145000178","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1145000178","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1759103217,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145000178?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-29 07:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“巴菲特指标”突破200%警戒线!美股估值超越“玩火”水平,但也有观点认为这一指标已“过时”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145000178","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"在2001年《财富》杂志的一篇专栏中,巴菲特称这一指标“可能是判断任何时点估值水平的最佳单一衡量标准”。如今,这一指标高达217%,远超互联网泡沫时期的峰值,也超过了2021年疫情时期股市狂热时达到的190%。不过,也有人认为巴菲特指标的意义已不如从前。巴菲特本人已经多年未对这一指标发表评论。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e109fc409f8ab806263cd73c30381e11\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"457\"/></p><p>沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)曾经最钟爱的股市估值指标如今攀升至历史新高,再次引发担忧:投资者是否又在考验市场狂热的极限。</p><p>这个指标被称为<strong>巴菲特指标(Buffett Indicator)</strong>,它衡量美国上市公司股票总市值(以威尔希尔5000指数为代表)与美国国民生产总值(GNP)的比值。在2001年《财富》杂志的一篇专栏中,巴菲特称这一指标“可能是判断任何时点估值水平的最佳单一衡量标准”。该指标也曾被包括保罗·都铎·琼斯(Paul Tudor Jones)在内的知名投资者引用。</p><p>巴菲特在2001年的一次演讲(后被《财富》摘录)中表示:“如果这一比例降到70%或80%左右,买股票对你来说可能非常划算。”他还警告说,“如果这一比例接近200%——就像在1999年和2000年一部分时间那样——你就是在玩火。”</p><p>如今,这一指标高达<strong>217%</strong>,远超互联网泡沫时期的峰值,也超过了2021年疫情时期股市狂热时达到的190%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05991784bdadcde4267d380d0282eafc\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"469\"/></p><p>按照这一标准,今天的美国股市正进入前所未有的水域:股票市值的扩张速度远超美国整体经济的增长。推动这波行情的主要是<strong>超大市值科技公司</strong>,它们在人工智能领域投入数十亿美元研发,并因新时代的增长前景而获得高估值倍数。</p><p>其他估值指标也在释放类似信号。根据Bespoke Investment Group的数据,标普500指数的市销率(P/S)近期升至<strong>3.33</strong>,创下历史新高。相比之下,2000年互联网泡沫时期的峰值仅为<strong>2.27</strong>,而新冠疫情后的繁荣则达到<strong>3.21</strong>后才回落。</p><p>不过,也有人认为巴菲特指标的意义已不如从前。过去20年,美国经济发生了巨大变化,越来越少依赖有形资产,而是更多依靠<strong>科技、软件和知识产权</strong>驱动。</p><p>在这种情况下,GDP和GNP可能低估了一个建立在数据网络和创新之上的经济体的价值。因此,全球最具生产力和创新力的美国经济,或许能够支撑更高的股票估值。</p><p>巴菲特本人已经多年未对这一指标发表评论。但他在伯克希尔·哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)过去两年持续构筑现金“堡垒”,同时准备把CEO职位交给格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel)。公司第二季度财报显示,伯克希尔现金储备已达<strong>3441亿美元</strong>,且连续第11个季度净卖出股票。</p><p>即便这一指标可能已“过时”,但结合“奥马哈先知”当前的谨慎布局,如今飙升至极端水平的巴菲特指标,仍必然会引起市场的高度关注。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“巴菲特指标”突破200%警戒线!美股估值超越“玩火”水平,但也有观点认为这一指标已“过时”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-29 07:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e109fc409f8ab806263cd73c30381e11\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"457\"/></p><p>沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)曾经最钟爱的股市估值指标如今攀升至历史新高,再次引发担忧:投资者是否又在考验市场狂热的极限。</p><p>这个指标被称为<strong>巴菲特指标(Buffett Indicator)</strong>,它衡量美国上市公司股票总市值(以威尔希尔5000指数为代表)与美国国民生产总值(GNP)的比值。在2001年《财富》杂志的一篇专栏中,巴菲特称这一指标“可能是判断任何时点估值水平的最佳单一衡量标准”。该指标也曾被包括保罗·都铎·琼斯(Paul Tudor Jones)在内的知名投资者引用。</p><p>巴菲特在2001年的一次演讲(后被《财富》摘录)中表示:“如果这一比例降到70%或80%左右,买股票对你来说可能非常划算。”他还警告说,“如果这一比例接近200%——就像在1999年和2000年一部分时间那样——你就是在玩火。”</p><p>如今,这一指标高达<strong>217%</strong>,远超互联网泡沫时期的峰值,也超过了2021年疫情时期股市狂热时达到的190%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05991784bdadcde4267d380d0282eafc\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"469\"/></p><p>按照这一标准,今天的美国股市正进入前所未有的水域:股票市值的扩张速度远超美国整体经济的增长。推动这波行情的主要是<strong>超大市值科技公司</strong>,它们在人工智能领域投入数十亿美元研发,并因新时代的增长前景而获得高估值倍数。</p><p>其他估值指标也在释放类似信号。根据Bespoke Investment Group的数据,标普500指数的市销率(P/S)近期升至<strong>3.33</strong>,创下历史新高。相比之下,2000年互联网泡沫时期的峰值仅为<strong>2.27</strong>,而新冠疫情后的繁荣则达到<strong>3.21</strong>后才回落。</p><p>不过,也有人认为巴菲特指标的意义已不如从前。过去20年,美国经济发生了巨大变化,越来越少依赖有形资产,而是更多依靠<strong>科技、软件和知识产权</strong>驱动。</p><p>在这种情况下,GDP和GNP可能低估了一个建立在数据网络和创新之上的经济体的价值。因此,全球最具生产力和创新力的美国经济,或许能够支撑更高的股票估值。</p><p>巴菲特本人已经多年未对这一指标发表评论。但他在伯克希尔·哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)过去两年持续构筑现金“堡垒”,同时准备把CEO职位交给格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel)。公司第二季度财报显示,伯克希尔现金储备已达<strong>3441亿美元</strong>,且连续第11个季度净卖出股票。</p><p>即便这一指标可能已“过时”,但结合“奥马哈先知”当前的谨慎布局,如今飙升至极端水平的巴菲特指标,仍必然会引起市场的高度关注。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e109fc409f8ab806263cd73c30381e11","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","SPY":"标普500ETF","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145000178","content_text":"沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)曾经最钟爱的股市估值指标如今攀升至历史新高,再次引发担忧:投资者是否又在考验市场狂热的极限。这个指标被称为巴菲特指标(Buffett Indicator),它衡量美国上市公司股票总市值(以威尔希尔5000指数为代表)与美国国民生产总值(GNP)的比值。在2001年《财富》杂志的一篇专栏中,巴菲特称这一指标“可能是判断任何时点估值水平的最佳单一衡量标准”。该指标也曾被包括保罗·都铎·琼斯(Paul Tudor Jones)在内的知名投资者引用。巴菲特在2001年的一次演讲(后被《财富》摘录)中表示:“如果这一比例降到70%或80%左右,买股票对你来说可能非常划算。”他还警告说,“如果这一比例接近200%——就像在1999年和2000年一部分时间那样——你就是在玩火。”如今,这一指标高达217%,远超互联网泡沫时期的峰值,也超过了2021年疫情时期股市狂热时达到的190%。按照这一标准,今天的美国股市正进入前所未有的水域:股票市值的扩张速度远超美国整体经济的增长。推动这波行情的主要是超大市值科技公司,它们在人工智能领域投入数十亿美元研发,并因新时代的增长前景而获得高估值倍数。其他估值指标也在释放类似信号。根据Bespoke Investment Group的数据,标普500指数的市销率(P/S)近期升至3.33,创下历史新高。相比之下,2000年互联网泡沫时期的峰值仅为2.27,而新冠疫情后的繁荣则达到3.21后才回落。不过,也有人认为巴菲特指标的意义已不如从前。过去20年,美国经济发生了巨大变化,越来越少依赖有形资产,而是更多依靠科技、软件和知识产权驱动。在这种情况下,GDP和GNP可能低估了一个建立在数据网络和创新之上的经济体的价值。因此,全球最具生产力和创新力的美国经济,或许能够支撑更高的股票估值。巴菲特本人已经多年未对这一指标发表评论。但他在伯克希尔·哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)过去两年持续构筑现金“堡垒”,同时准备把CEO职位交给格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel)。公司第二季度财报显示,伯克希尔现金储备已达3441亿美元,且连续第11个季度净卖出股票。即便这一指标可能已“过时”,但结合“奥马哈先知”当前的谨慎布局,如今飙升至极端水平的巴菲特指标,仍必然会引起市场的高度关注。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":1.1,"SPY":1.1,"BRK.A":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}