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- 55f05e1755f05e17
  ·2021-12-31
  Nice up
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- 55f05e1755f05e17
  ·2021-12-30
  Testing up
  2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else<blockquote>2021年回顾：大盘股的一个非常好的市场……但没有太多其他的</blockquote>
  We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These
  2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else<blockquote>2021年回顾：大盘股的一个非常好的市场……但没有太多其他的</blockquote>
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- 55f05e1755f05e17
  ·2021-12-29
  Testing
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- 55f05e1755f05e17
  ·2021-12-26
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- 55f05e1755f05e17
  ·2021-12-25
  Testing
  Stock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone<blockquote>2022 年股市：一些华尔街策略师看涨，而另一些策略师则持谨慎态度</blockquote>
  Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempe
  Stock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone<blockquote>2022 年股市：一些华尔街策略师看涨，而另一些策略师则持谨慎态度</blockquote>
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- 55f05e1755f05e17
  ·2021-12-20
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- 55f05e1755f05e17
  ·2021-12-10
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- 55f05e1755f05e17
  ·2021-12-07
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- 55f05e1755f05e17
  ·2021-12-04
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- 55f05e1755f05e17
  ·2021-11-29
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up","listText":"Nice up","text":"Nice up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692898420","repostId":"2195468434","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692346597,"gmtCreate":1640860150036,"gmtModify":1640860150288,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561606993964516","idStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Testing up","listText":"Testing up","text":"Testing up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692346597","repostId":"1190455875","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190455875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640849654,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1190455875?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 15:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else<blockquote>2021年回顾：大盘股的一个非常好的市场……但没有太多其他的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190455875","media":"Realmoney","summary":"We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These stories will cite a 30% gain in the S&amp;P 500 and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 and a 20% gain in the DJIA. Stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> (AAPL) , which is up around 40%, will be offered as examples of what a fine year it has been.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>我们很快就会看到许多关于股市如何度过美好的一年的新闻报道。这些故事将引用标普500和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>道琼斯上涨 100% 和 20%。股票如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>(AAPL) 上涨了约 40%，将作为今年表现良好的例子。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>These sorts of returns are great news for portfolios that are tied to the performance of big-caps and the senior indexes. Many retirement and 401(k) accounts have allocation options that benefited greatly from this strong performance.</p><p><blockquote>对于与大盘股和高级指数表现挂钩的投资组合来说，此类回报是个好消息。许多退休和 401(k) 账户都有分配选项，从这种强劲的表现中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p>However, the big story this year isn&#39;t how well the indexes have performed --  it&#39;s how much they failed to reflect what was really going on in the broader market. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 stocks are around 30% of the weight of the S&amp;P 500, and 25 stocks are close to half. These stocks did well, and therefore the indexes did very well.</p><p><blockquote>然而，今年的大新闻不是指数的表现有多好，而是它们在多大程度上未能反映更广泛市场的真实情况。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>10只个股在标普500权重的30%左右，25只个股接近一半。这些股票表现良好，因此指数表现非常好。</blockquote></p><p>The indexes are essentially a specific asset class of very large-cap stocks, and that asset class had a very good year. If we dig deeper, though, the picture is not quite as attractive.</p><p><blockquote>这些指数本质上是大盘股的特定资产类别，该资产类别今年表现非常好。然而，如果我们深入挖掘，这幅画就没那么吸引人了。</blockquote></p><p>If you look only at stocks that are trading under $20 then 50% are down 20% or more from highs. 63% of stocks under $10 are down 20% or more.— James DePorre (@RevShark) December 29, 2021One of the easiest ways to see how the indexes have overstated the performance of the broader market is to look at returns produced by U.S. equity funds. According to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TST\">TheStreet</a>, close to 85% were trailing the S&amp;P 500 as of the end of November, and that had probably declined in December when secondary stocks were hit hard once again. On Tuesday <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> stated, &#34;if you take the year-to-date total return of the Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund VIP basket and you triple it, you still fall short of the S&amp;P 500.&#34;</p><p><blockquote>如果你只看交易价格低于20美元的股票，那么50%的股票从高点下跌了20%或更多。63% 低于 10 美元的股票下跌 20% 或更多。— James DePorre (@RevShark) 2021 年 12 月 29 日了解指数如何夸大大盘表现的最简单方法之一是查看美国股票基金产生的回报。根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TST\">街道</a>截至 11 月底，近 85% 的股票落后于标普500，而 12 月份二级股票再次遭受重创时，这一数字可能已经下降。星期二<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>声明称：“如果你把高盛对冲基金 VIP 篮子今年迄今为止的总回报率增加两倍，你仍然低于标普500。”</blockquote></p><p>Another illustration of how poor the market has been for stocks other than mega-caps is that nearly 60% of all stocks are below their 200-day simple moving average of price.</p><p><blockquote>除了大盘股之外，市场有多么糟糕的另一个例子是，近 60% 的股票都低于 200 天简单移动平均价格。</blockquote></p><p>The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market. That is 42.9% of all stocks, yet the indexes are currently close to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>熊市普遍接受的定义是当一只股票比其高点低20%时。目前，总共8,433只股票中有3,616只处于熊市。这占所有股票的 42.9%，但指数目前接近历史高点。</blockquote></p><p>There are a tremendous number of stats that illustrate the two-tiered nature of the market in 2021, but they will garner little attention because the indexes are the easy headline and they appeal to most of the financial media and traditional Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>有大量统计数据说明了 2021 年市场的两级性质，但它们很少受到关注，因为这些指数很容易成为头条新闻，而且对大多数财经媒体和传统华尔街都有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p>The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>熊市普遍接受的定义是当一只股票比其高点低20%时。目前，总共8,433只股票中有3,616只处于熊市。</blockquote></p><p>For the majority of stocks, the market topped in February and has fallen into bear markets over the last nine months. A frenzy of social media trading marked the February top when stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a> (GME) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> (AMC) were pushed higher due in part to short-squeezes as well as the coordinated traders on Reddit and in Discord chat rooms.</p><p><blockquote>对于大多数股票来说，市场在二月份见顶，并在过去九个月陷入熊市。社交媒体交易的狂热标志着二月份的顶峰，当时股票等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>（GME）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>(AMC) 被推高，部分原因是空头挤压以及 Reddit 和 Discord 聊天室上的协调交易者。</blockquote></p><p>These traders continued to aggressively push various trades, mostly in small-caps and thinly traded stocks, but the ability to create sustained movement quickly diminished, and those that had been promoting the holding of stocks with &#34;diamond hands&#34; eventually gave up.</p><p><blockquote>这些交易员继续积极推动各种交易，大多是小盘股和交易量稀少的股票，但创造持续走势的能力很快减弱，那些一直在推动用“钻石手”持股的人最终放弃了。</blockquote></p><p>This dynamic and the loss of many newer and small traders who were using stimulus money to trade was part of what hurt many of the secondary stocks and small-caps, but another major issue this year was the flood of special purpose acquisition companies or SPACs.</p><p><blockquote>这种动态以及许多使用刺激资金进行交易的新交易者和小交易者的损失是损害许多次级股票和小盘股的部分原因，但今年的另一个主要问题是特殊目的收购公司或 SPAC 的涌入。</blockquote></p><p>In 2021, more than 600 SPACs IPO&#39;ed and raised over $160 billion in capital. Many of these SPACs had less than stellar fundamentals, but they attracted speculators that were protected by the $10 redemption. It was easy to sponsor and sell a SPAC at $10 if it could be redeemed at that same price at some point.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，超过600家SPAC首次公开募股，筹集了超过1600亿美元的资金。其中许多 SPAC 的基本面并不理想，但它们吸引了受到 10 美元赎回保护的投机者。如果SPAC可以在某个时候以同样的价格赎回，那么以10美元的价格赞助和出售SPAC是很容易的。</blockquote></p><p>A significant number of SPACs are trading at their lows and have taken capital from other speculative sectors.</p><p><blockquote>大量 SPAC 的交易价格处于低点，并从其他投机行业吸引了资金。</blockquote></p><p>There are more than 570 SPACs still looking for a deal, and around 90 have already been liquidated. Even when a SPAC has found a deal, many have traded very poorly as the $10 redemption price disappears and those that are holding PIPE shares try to recover some capital.</p><p><blockquote>超过 570 家 SPAC 仍在寻求交易，其中约 90 家已被清算。即使 SPAC 达成交易，随着 10 美元的赎回价格消失，许多人的交易也非常糟糕，而那些持有 PIPE 股票的人正试图收回一些资本。</blockquote></p><p>SPACs sucked up a tremendous amount of capital during the year, and their poor performance is a big part of why so many smaller stocks have acted poorly as well. Not only are there are a significant number of SPACs that are trading at their lows, but they have taken capital from other speculative sectors.</p><p><blockquote>SPAC 在这一年中吸收了大量资本，它们的糟糕表现是许多小型股票也表现不佳的一个重要原因。不仅有大量 SPAC 处于低点交易，而且它们还从其他投机行业吸引了资本。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Two sectors that have suffered greatly from this lack of liquidity in 2021 are biotechnology and cannabis. Both are trading close to their lows and have substantial losses for the year. Overall there are around 2,700 stocks or 32% of all stocks, within 10% of their 12-month lows.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年，生物技术和大麻这两个行业因流动性缺乏而遭受重创。两家公司的交易价格均接近低点，今年均出现大幅亏损。总体而言，约有 2,700 只股票，占所有股票的 32%，处于 12 个月低点的 10% 以内。</blockquote></p><p>Be prepared for the stories about how well the market did this year, but the truth is that there is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> asset class that did very well, and that is mega-cap stocks. The broader market had a very tough go of it in 2021, but you would not know it unless you did some digging.</p><p><blockquote>请准备好了解今年市场表现如何的故事，但事实是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>表现非常好的资产类别是大盘股。2021年，更广泛的市场经历了非常艰难的时期，但除非你做一些挖掘，否则你不会知道。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619508253632","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else<blockquote>2021年回顾：大盘股的一个非常好的市场……但没有太多其他的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else<blockquote>2021年回顾：大盘股的一个非常好的市场……但没有太多其他的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Realmoney</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These stories will cite a 30% gain in the S&amp;P 500 and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 and a 20% gain in the DJIA. Stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> (AAPL) , which is up around 40%, will be offered as examples of what a fine year it has been.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>我们很快就会看到许多关于股市如何度过美好的一年的新闻报道。这些故事将引用标普500和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>道琼斯上涨 100% 和 20%。股票如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>(AAPL) 上涨了约 40%，将作为今年表现良好的例子。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>These sorts of returns are great news for portfolios that are tied to the performance of big-caps and the senior indexes. Many retirement and 401(k) accounts have allocation options that benefited greatly from this strong performance.</p><p><blockquote>对于与大盘股和高级指数表现挂钩的投资组合来说，此类回报是个好消息。许多退休和 401(k) 账户都有分配选项，从这种强劲的表现中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p>However, the big story this year isn&#39;t how well the indexes have performed --  it&#39;s how much they failed to reflect what was really going on in the broader market. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 stocks are around 30% of the weight of the S&amp;P 500, and 25 stocks are close to half. These stocks did well, and therefore the indexes did very well.</p><p><blockquote>然而，今年的大新闻不是指数的表现有多好，而是它们在多大程度上未能反映更广泛市场的真实情况。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>10只个股在标普500权重的30%左右，25只个股接近一半。这些股票表现良好，因此指数表现非常好。</blockquote></p><p>The indexes are essentially a specific asset class of very large-cap stocks, and that asset class had a very good year. If we dig deeper, though, the picture is not quite as attractive.</p><p><blockquote>这些指数本质上是大盘股的特定资产类别，该资产类别今年表现非常好。然而，如果我们深入挖掘，这幅画就没那么吸引人了。</blockquote></p><p>If you look only at stocks that are trading under $20 then 50% are down 20% or more from highs. 63% of stocks under $10 are down 20% or more.— James DePorre (@RevShark) December 29, 2021One of the easiest ways to see how the indexes have overstated the performance of the broader market is to look at returns produced by U.S. equity funds. According to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TST\">TheStreet</a>, close to 85% were trailing the S&amp;P 500 as of the end of November, and that had probably declined in December when secondary stocks were hit hard once again. On Tuesday <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> stated, &#34;if you take the year-to-date total return of the Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund VIP basket and you triple it, you still fall short of the S&amp;P 500.&#34;</p><p><blockquote>如果你只看交易价格低于20美元的股票，那么50%的股票从高点下跌了20%或更多。63% 低于 10 美元的股票下跌 20% 或更多。— James DePorre (@RevShark) 2021 年 12 月 29 日了解指数如何夸大大盘表现的最简单方法之一是查看美国股票基金产生的回报。根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TST\">街道</a>截至 11 月底，近 85% 的股票落后于标普500，而 12 月份二级股票再次遭受重创时，这一数字可能已经下降。星期二<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>声明称：“如果你把高盛对冲基金 VIP 篮子今年迄今为止的总回报率增加两倍，你仍然低于标普500。”</blockquote></p><p>Another illustration of how poor the market has been for stocks other than mega-caps is that nearly 60% of all stocks are below their 200-day simple moving average of price.</p><p><blockquote>除了大盘股之外，市场有多么糟糕的另一个例子是，近 60% 的股票都低于 200 天简单移动平均价格。</blockquote></p><p>The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market. That is 42.9% of all stocks, yet the indexes are currently close to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>熊市普遍接受的定义是当一只股票比其高点低20%时。目前，总共8,433只股票中有3,616只处于熊市。这占所有股票的 42.9%，但指数目前接近历史高点。</blockquote></p><p>There are a tremendous number of stats that illustrate the two-tiered nature of the market in 2021, but they will garner little attention because the indexes are the easy headline and they appeal to most of the financial media and traditional Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>有大量统计数据说明了 2021 年市场的两级性质，但它们很少受到关注，因为这些指数很容易成为头条新闻，而且对大多数财经媒体和传统华尔街都有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p>The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>熊市普遍接受的定义是当一只股票比其高点低20%时。目前，总共8,433只股票中有3,616只处于熊市。</blockquote></p><p>For the majority of stocks, the market topped in February and has fallen into bear markets over the last nine months. A frenzy of social media trading marked the February top when stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a> (GME) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> (AMC) were pushed higher due in part to short-squeezes as well as the coordinated traders on Reddit and in Discord chat rooms.</p><p><blockquote>对于大多数股票来说，市场在二月份见顶，并在过去九个月陷入熊市。社交媒体交易的狂热标志着二月份的顶峰，当时股票等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>（GME）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>(AMC) 被推高，部分原因是空头挤压以及 Reddit 和 Discord 聊天室上的协调交易者。</blockquote></p><p>These traders continued to aggressively push various trades, mostly in small-caps and thinly traded stocks, but the ability to create sustained movement quickly diminished, and those that had been promoting the holding of stocks with &#34;diamond hands&#34; eventually gave up.</p><p><blockquote>这些交易员继续积极推动各种交易，大多是小盘股和交易量稀少的股票，但创造持续走势的能力很快减弱，那些一直在推动用“钻石手”持股的人最终放弃了。</blockquote></p><p>This dynamic and the loss of many newer and small traders who were using stimulus money to trade was part of what hurt many of the secondary stocks and small-caps, but another major issue this year was the flood of special purpose acquisition companies or SPACs.</p><p><blockquote>这种动态以及许多使用刺激资金进行交易的新交易者和小交易者的损失是损害许多次级股票和小盘股的部分原因，但今年的另一个主要问题是特殊目的收购公司或 SPAC 的涌入。</blockquote></p><p>In 2021, more than 600 SPACs IPO&#39;ed and raised over $160 billion in capital. Many of these SPACs had less than stellar fundamentals, but they attracted speculators that were protected by the $10 redemption. It was easy to sponsor and sell a SPAC at $10 if it could be redeemed at that same price at some point.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，超过600家SPAC首次公开募股，筹集了超过1600亿美元的资金。其中许多 SPAC 的基本面并不理想，但它们吸引了受到 10 美元赎回保护的投机者。如果SPAC可以在某个时候以同样的价格赎回，那么以10美元的价格赞助和出售SPAC是很容易的。</blockquote></p><p>A significant number of SPACs are trading at their lows and have taken capital from other speculative sectors.</p><p><blockquote>大量 SPAC 的交易价格处于低点，并从其他投机行业吸引了资金。</blockquote></p><p>There are more than 570 SPACs still looking for a deal, and around 90 have already been liquidated. Even when a SPAC has found a deal, many have traded very poorly as the $10 redemption price disappears and those that are holding PIPE shares try to recover some capital.</p><p><blockquote>超过 570 家 SPAC 仍在寻求交易，其中约 90 家已被清算。即使 SPAC 达成交易，随着 10 美元的赎回价格消失，许多人的交易也非常糟糕，而那些持有 PIPE 股票的人正试图收回一些资本。</blockquote></p><p>SPACs sucked up a tremendous amount of capital during the year, and their poor performance is a big part of why so many smaller stocks have acted poorly as well. Not only are there are a significant number of SPACs that are trading at their lows, but they have taken capital from other speculative sectors.</p><p><blockquote>SPAC 在这一年中吸收了大量资本，它们的糟糕表现是许多小型股票也表现不佳的一个重要原因。不仅有大量 SPAC 处于低点交易，而且它们还从其他投机行业吸引了资本。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Two sectors that have suffered greatly from this lack of liquidity in 2021 are biotechnology and cannabis. Both are trading close to their lows and have substantial losses for the year. Overall there are around 2,700 stocks or 32% of all stocks, within 10% of their 12-month lows.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年，生物技术和大麻这两个行业因流动性缺乏而遭受重创。两家公司的交易价格均接近低点，今年均出现大幅亏损。总体而言，约有 2,700 只股票，占所有股票的 32%，处于 12 个月低点的 10% 以内。</blockquote></p><p>Be prepared for the stories about how well the market did this year, but the truth is that there is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> asset class that did very well, and that is mega-cap stocks. The broader market had a very tough go of it in 2021, but you would not know it unless you did some digging.</p><p><blockquote>请准备好了解今年市场表现如何的故事，但事实是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>表现非常好的资产类别是大盘股。2021年，更广泛的市场经历了非常艰难的时期，但除非你做一些挖掘，否则你不会知道。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/markets/2021-market-in-review-a-very-good-year-for-mega-cap-stocks-but-not-much-else-15871611\">Realmoney</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/markets/2021-market-in-review-a-very-good-year-for-mega-cap-stocks-but-not-much-else-15871611","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190455875","content_text":"We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These stories will cite a 30% gain in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 and a 20% gain in the DJIA. Stocks such as Apple (AAPL) , which is up around 40%, will be offered as examples of what a fine year it has been.These sorts of returns are great news for portfolios that are tied to the performance of big-caps and the senior indexes. Many retirement and 401(k) accounts have allocation options that benefited greatly from this strong performance.However, the big story this year isn't how well the indexes have performed --  it's how much they failed to reflect what was really going on in the broader market. Just 10 stocks are around 30% of the weight of the S&P 500, and 25 stocks are close to half. These stocks did well, and therefore the indexes did very well.The indexes are essentially a specific asset class of very large-cap stocks, and that asset class had a very good year. If we dig deeper, though, the picture is not quite as attractive.If you look only at stocks that are trading under $20 then 50% are down 20% or more from highs. 63% of stocks under $10 are down 20% or more.— James DePorre (@RevShark) December 29, 2021One of the easiest ways to see how the indexes have overstated the performance of the broader market is to look at returns produced by U.S. equity funds. According to TheStreet, close to 85% were trailing the S&P 500 as of the end of November, and that had probably declined in December when secondary stocks were hit hard once again. On Tuesday Goldman Sachs stated, \"if you take the year-to-date total return of the Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund VIP basket and you triple it, you still fall short of the S&P 500.\"Another illustration of how poor the market has been for stocks other than mega-caps is that nearly 60% of all stocks are below their 200-day simple moving average of price.The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market. That is 42.9% of all stocks, yet the indexes are currently close to all-time highs.There are a tremendous number of stats that illustrate the two-tiered nature of the market in 2021, but they will garner little attention because the indexes are the easy headline and they appeal to most of the financial media and traditional Wall Street.The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market.For the majority of stocks, the market topped in February and has fallen into bear markets over the last nine months. A frenzy of social media trading marked the February top when stocks such as GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) were pushed higher due in part to short-squeezes as well as the coordinated traders on Reddit and in Discord chat rooms.These traders continued to aggressively push various trades, mostly in small-caps and thinly traded stocks, but the ability to create sustained movement quickly diminished, and those that had been promoting the holding of stocks with \"diamond hands\" eventually gave up.This dynamic and the loss of many newer and small traders who were using stimulus money to trade was part of what hurt many of the secondary stocks and small-caps, but another major issue this year was the flood of special purpose acquisition companies or SPACs.In 2021, more than 600 SPACs IPO'ed and raised over $160 billion in capital. Many of these SPACs had less than stellar fundamentals, but they attracted speculators that were protected by the $10 redemption. It was easy to sponsor and sell a SPAC at $10 if it could be redeemed at that same price at some point.A significant number of SPACs are trading at their lows and have taken capital from other speculative sectors.There are more than 570 SPACs still looking for a deal, and around 90 have already been liquidated. Even when a SPAC has found a deal, many have traded very poorly as the $10 redemption price disappears and those that are holding PIPE shares try to recover some capital.SPACs sucked up a tremendous amount of capital during the year, and their poor performance is a big part of why so many smaller stocks have acted poorly as well. Not only are there are a significant number of SPACs that are trading at their lows, but they have taken capital from other speculative sectors.Two sectors that have suffered greatly from this lack of liquidity in 2021 are biotechnology and cannabis. Both are trading close to their lows and have substantial losses for the year. Overall there are around 2,700 stocks or 32% of all stocks, within 10% of their 12-month lows.Be prepared for the stories about how well the market did this year, but the truth is that there is one asset class that did very well, and that is mega-cap stocks. The broader market had a very tough go of it in 2021, but you would not know it unless you did some digging.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696528173,"gmtCreate":1640737966793,"gmtModify":1640737967066,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561606993964516","idStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Testing","listText":"Testing","text":"Testing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696528173","repostId":"1186633322","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698481129,"gmtCreate":1640492569777,"gmtModify":1640492570036,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561606993964516","idStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment like","listText":"Comment like","text":"Comment like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698481129","repostId":"2193178197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698230902,"gmtCreate":1640400310268,"gmtModify":1640400310511,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561606993964516","idStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Testing","listText":"Testing","text":"Testing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698230902","repostId":"1195213621","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195213621","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640324974,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195213621?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 13:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone<blockquote>2022 年股市：一些华尔街策略师看涨，而另一些策略师则持谨慎态度</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195213621","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempe","content":"<p>Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.</p><p><blockquote>策略师们已经开始对明年的股市做出展望——在今年两位数的涨幅之后，许多人正在降低预期。</blockquote></p><p> Against a backdrop of vaccinations, easing lockdown measures and a broad-based economic reopening, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;rose by about 25% in 2021 through market close on Dec. 22. The blue-chip index has also more than doubled from its March 23, 2020 nadir.</p><p><blockquote>在疫苗接种、放松封锁措施和广泛经济重新开放的背景下，截至12月22日收盘，标普500在2021年上涨了约25%。蓝筹股指数也较2020年3月23日的最低点上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc520db74600e8e9c46338ba7ac718c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is unlikely to repeat these kinds of returns next year, based on the projections of a number of pundits. With market participants pricing in at least one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and an initial boost from the reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus fading, the easy gains for this cycle are likely in the past. And more than one strategist thinks stocks are set to decline at least modestly next year from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>根据一些专家的预测，标普500明年不太可能重复这种回报。随着市场参与者预计美联储至少会加息一次，以及重新开放带来的初步提振，以及货币和财政刺激措施的消退，过去可能会轻松上涨。不止一位策略师认为，明年股市至少会从当前水平小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Here's what some strategists from top Wall Street firms are predicting for the stock market next year.</p><p><blockquote>以下是华尔街顶级公司的一些策略师对明年股市的预测。</blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oppenheimer (5,330): 'The noise stemming from negative projections ... should not obscure the signals of progress'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奥本海默（5,330）：“来自负投影的噪声……不应掩盖进步的迹象</b></blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus&nbsp;has struck an especially upbeat tone on stocks for 2022, projecting another year of double-digit gains as economic growth remains robust and policymakers move to address concerns over rising prices.</p><p><blockquote>奥本海默策略师约翰·斯托尔茨福斯 (John Stoltzfus) 对 2022 年股市表达了特别乐观的基调，预计随着经济增长依然强劲，政策制定者采取行动解决对价格上涨的担忧，股市将再次实现两位数涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer's outlook sees the S&amp;P 500 climbing to 5,330 by year-end 2022. This would represent an about 13.5% increase from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>奥本海默的展望是，到 2022 年底，标普500将攀升至 5,330。这将比 12 月 22 日的收盘价上涨约 13.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We suggest that investors not let near-term uncertainty obfuscate progress being made as the central bank adjusts monetary policy to meet higher-than-expected inflation and as the U.S. and global economy navigate current challenges to re-openings posed by COVID-19 variants and supply chain disruptions,\" Stoltzfus wrote in a note published on Dec. 20.</p><p><blockquote>“我们建议投资者不要让近期的不确定性模糊正在取得的进展，因为央行调整货币政策以应对高于预期的通胀，以及美国和全球经济应对当前由 COVID-19 变种和供应链中断带来的重新开放挑战，”斯托尔茨福斯在 12 月 20 日发布的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> \"In our view, the noise stemming from negative projections coming from some traders, skeptics, bears and fear-mongers of late should not obscure the signals of progress that have been made societally and economically since the pandemic struck globally in March 2020 through to the current day,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为，最近一些交易员、怀疑论者、看空者和恐惧制造者的负面预测所产生的噪音不应掩盖自 2020 年 3 月疫情席卷全球以来社会和经济取得的进步信号。直到今天，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Stoltzfus noted that the firm remains overweight U.S. equities, while also \"maintaining meaningful exposure to both developed and emerging markets on expectations that an economic recovery stateside coming out of the COVID-19 emergency will help boost economic growth around the world and lead to a global economic expansion.\"</p><p><blockquote>Stoltzfus 指出，该公司仍持有美国股票，同时“由于预计美国摆脱 COVID-19 紧急情况后的经济复苏将有助于促进全球经济增长并导致全球经济扩张，因此对发达市场和新兴市场保持有意义的敞口。”</blockquote></p><p> In terms of sectors, Oppenheimer favors information technology and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors. And in terms of style, Stoltzfus. And for investing style, Oppenheimer said it prefers a barbell approach that includes both value and growth stocks, given the backdrop of what is likely to be rising, but still historically low interest rates next year.</p><p><blockquote>在板块方面，奥本海默更青睐信息技术和周期性股票，而不是防御性板块。就风格而言，Stoltzfus。对于投资风格，奥本海默表示，考虑到明年利率可能上升但仍处于历史低位的背景，它更喜欢杠铃法，包括价值股和成长型股。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Credit Suisse (5,200): S&amp;P 500 target raised 'on robust projections for economic growth'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>瑞士信贷 (5,200)：“基于强劲的经济增长预测”上调标普500目标</b></blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub is getting more bullish on stocks for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师乔纳森·戈卢布 (Jonathan Golub) 更加看好 2022 年的股市。</blockquote></p><p> The firm raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 price target to 5,200, from the 5,000 seen previously. The updated forecast also predicts another year of double-digit appreciation for the index, with an estimated rise of nearly 11% from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将 2022 年标普500目标价格从之前的 5,000 美元上调至 5,200 美元。更新后的预测还预测该指数将再次实现两位数上涨，预计较 12 月 22 日收盘价上涨近 11%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening,\" Golub wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>戈卢布在一份报告中写道：“这种建设性的前景是基于对实际和名义经济增长的强劲预测、周期性板块的利润率进一步上升、回购量增加以及尽管美联储收紧货币政策但有利的贴现率。”</blockquote></p><p> The firm also raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 aggregate earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $235, up from the $230 seen previously. The revision assumes that a corporate tax rate increase will not take effect next year out of Washington.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还将 2022 年标普500每股收益 (EPS) 预测从之前的 230 美元上调至 235 美元。该修订假设明年华盛顿以外的公司税率上调不会生效。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse is Overweight cyclical sectors including energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary (excluding internet retailers), given expectations for \"robust GDP and inflation\" and continued earnings momentum. The firm is market weight \"TECH+,\" or technology, internet services and internet retail firms.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于对“强劲的GDP和通胀”以及持续的盈利势头的预期，瑞士信贷正在跑赢大盘能源、材料、工业和非必需消费品（不包括互联网零售商）等周期性行业。该公司是市场权重“TECH+”，即技术、互联网服务和互联网零售公司。</blockquote></p><p> \"We would reevaluate this positioning should the yield curve flatten further, nominal growth fade, or earnings trends reverse,\" Golub wrote. \"We are downgrading Financials and Health Care to Underweight, on weaker growth prospects in 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>戈卢布写道：“如果收益率曲线进一步趋平、名义增长消退或盈利趋势逆转，我们将重新评估这一定位。”“由于 2022 年增长前景疲软，我们将下调跑输大盘的金融和医疗保健评级。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>JPMorgan (Target 5,050): '2022 will be a strong year for economic recovery and performance of cyclical assets'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根大通（目标 5,050）：“2022 年将是经济复苏和周期性资产表现强劲的一年”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> JPMorgan sees stocks building on gains next year, albeit at a slower clip than in the last few years. And with interest rates poised to rise, cyclical areas of the market — both in the U.S. and internationally — are set to be some of the strongest performers, suggested Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通预计明年股市将继续上涨，尽管增速比过去几年放缓。摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇表示，随着利率即将上升，美国和国际市场的周期性领域将成为表现最强劲的领域。</blockquote></p><p> The firm forecasted that the S&amp;P 500 would reach 5,050 by year-end 2022, representing a rise of about 7.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预测，到 2022 年底，标普500将达到 5,050 人，比 12 月 22 日的收盘水平增长约 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to our 2021 forecast; however, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver 2-3 times higher returns,\" Kolanovic wrote. \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.\"</p><p><blockquote>科拉诺维奇写道：“与我们 2021 年的预测相比，这意味着升值百分比较小；然而，我们确实认为国际股票、新兴市场和周期性市场细分市场将大幅跑赢大盘，并带来 2-3 倍的回报。”“这样做的原因是我们对加息和边际收紧货币政策的预期，这应该会对纳斯达克等高倍数市场构成阻力。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" he added. JPMorgan expects the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to climb to 2.25% by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>“在美国国内，我们喜欢重新开放和再通胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者，”他补充道。摩根大通预计，到明年年底，基准 10 年期国债收益率将攀升至 2.25%。</blockquote></p><p> \"What are the risks to our view? As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility,\" Kolanovic added. \"There are other risks that investors will need to monitor and manage in 2022. They include increased geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia (in particular related to Ukraine and Iran), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties around high inflation, and the path of monetary policy normalization.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为存在哪些风险？随着复苏的进行，市场将开始适应收紧的货币条件，这一过程可能会带来波动性，”科拉诺维奇补充道。“2022 年投资者还需要监控和管理其他风险。其中包括欧洲和亚洲地缘政治紧张局势加剧（特别是与乌克兰和伊朗有关）、迫在眉睫的能源危机、高通胀的不确定性以及货币政策正常化的路径。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>DWS Group (Target: 5,000): 'When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DWS Group（目标：5,000）：“就市盈率而言，它们站在债券市场的肩膀上”</b></blockquote></p><p> DWS Group expects the S&amp;P 500 will rise further into next year, supported by a combination of sustained — if slowing, earnings and economic growth — and a contained rise in rates.</p><p><blockquote>DWS集团预计，在持续（如果放缓）盈利和经济增长以及利率控制上升的共同支撑下，明年标普500将进一步上升。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our view for risk assets is simply, it should be another good year in 2022,\" David Bianco, DWS Group chief investment officer, Americas, said during a media call on Dec. 1. \"With lower inflation, slowing inflation, we should be comfortable with the idea that interest rates, both nominal and real, only climb modestly.\"</p><p><blockquote>DWS 集团美洲首席投资官 David Bianco 在 12 月 1 日的媒体看涨期权上表示：“我们对风险资产的看法很简单，2022 年应该又是一个好年份。”“随着通胀下降、通胀放缓，我们应该对名义利率和实际利率只会温和上升的想法感到满意。”</blockquote></p><p> The firm expects to see the S&amp;P 500 end 2022 at 5,000, growing by nearly 6.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预计 2022 年底标普500将达到 5,000 人，比 12 月 22 日的收盘水平增长近 6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"So far, long-term interest rates have only climbed slightly, and long-term real interest rates which are key for the PE [price-earnings ratio] of U.S. equities and equities worldwide, they're still near all-time lows,\" he added. \"When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market.\"</p><p><blockquote>“到目前为止，长期利率仅小幅攀升，而作为美国股市和全球股市市盈率关键的长期实际利率仍接近历史低点，”他补充道。“说到市盈率，它们站在债券市场的肩膀上。”</blockquote></p><p> Bianco expects the S&amp;P 500's PE multiple, which has been trading at about 22 times current earnings, will be sustained through next year. The firm also anticipates S&amp;P 500 companies' aggregate earnings per share (EPS) will come in at about $228 for 2022, growing by 7% from an estimated $213 level this year. This earnings view assumes no corporate tax hikes in the U.S. in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Bianco 预计标准普尔 500 指数的市盈率（其市盈率约为当前市盈率的 22 倍）将持续到明年。该公司还预计 2022 年标普500公司的每股总收益 (EPS) 将约为 228 美元，比今年预计的 213 美元增长 7%。这一盈利观点假设 2022 年美国不会提高企业税。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our view is that the equity market, the S&amp;P, is largely fairly valued, but our preferences for a long time have remained the digital businesses — technology, communications, growth stocks in general, a preference for intangible businesses — we've argued that these types of businesses actually do provide terrific inflation protection,\" Bianco said. \"This is not the 1970s, and often, we think the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best quality businesses. And look for businesses that are raising productivity, rather than raising price.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的观点是，股票市场（标准普尔指数）的估值基本上是合理的，但我们长期以来的偏好仍然是数字业务——技术、通信、一般的成长型股票，以及对无形业务的偏好——我们认为这些类型的业务实际上确实提供了极好的通胀保护，”比安科说。“现在不是 20 世纪 70 年代，我们通常认为抵御通货膨胀的最佳方法就是拥有最优质的企业。并寻找提高生产力而不是提高价格的企业。”</blockquote></p><p> Bianco also said the firm was Overweight the health care and financials sectors, with the latter constituting a beneficiary of higher rates given the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike next year.</p><p><blockquote>比安科还表示，该公司是医疗保健和金融行业的跑赢大盘，鉴于美联储明年可能至少加息一次，后者是加息的受益者。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bank of America (Target: 4,600): Look for 'inflation-protected yield'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国银行（目标：4,600）：寻找“通胀保值收益率”</b></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is poised to end 2022 slightly lower compared to present levels, according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的 Savita Subramanian 表示，到 2022 年底，标普500将略低于目前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> The firm's 2022 outlook sees the index ending next year at 4,600, or down by 2% compared to closing prices on Dec. 22. That would come alongside slowing earnings growth, with S&amp;P 500 earnings per share set to rise just 6.5% next year, based on Subramanian's projections.</p><p><blockquote>该公司 2022 年的展望预计该指数明年收于 4,600 点，较 12 月 22 日收盘价下跌 2%。与此同时，盈利增长也将放缓，根据 Subramanian 的预测，标普500明年每股收益将仅增长 6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations for a higher discount rate serve as one of the main drivers for this outlook, with next year's predicted higher-rate environment weighing on stock valuations. Plus, as rates rise, other assets will compete for investor attention next year, Subramanian added.</p><p><blockquote>对更高贴现率的预期是这一前景的主要驱动因素之一，明年预计的更高利率环境会给股票估值带来压力。此外，随着利率上升，明年其他资产将争夺投资者的注意力，Subramanian补充道。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"What happens to the TINA ('There is no alternative' to stocks) argument if cash yields rival the S&amp;P 500's 1.3% dividend yield, and the 10-year yield hits 2% by YE [year-end] 2022? Dividend growth needs to keep up, thus, our theme: inflation-protected yield,\" Subramanian said. \"Inflation-protected yield favors Energy, Financials and Real Estate.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果现金收益率与标准普尔 500 指数 1.3% 的股息收益率相媲美，并且到 2022 年 YE [年底] 10 年期收益率达到 2%，那么 TINA（‘股票别无选择’）论点会发生什么？因此，股息增长需要跟上我们的主题：通胀保值收益率，”苏布拉马尼安说。“通胀保值收益率有利于能源、金融和房地产。”</blockquote></p><p> \"What will we say when we look back at today? Probably similar comments to 2000 hindsight: lofty expectations, Wall St. stock allocations up ~20 [percentage points], retail/democratized markets, frenzied IPO activity; first Fed hike into an overvalued market. And acceptance of the unthinkable: a negative cost of equity in '00, negative real rates today.\" she said. \"But the last sign of a bubble — excessive corporate/ consumer leverage — has been transferred to the government.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当我们今天回顾时，我们会说什么？可能与 2000 年事后看来类似的评论：崇高的期望、华尔街股票配置增加了约 20 个百分点、零售/民主化市场、疯狂的 IPO 活动；美联储首次加息进入估值过高的市场。以及接受不可思议的事情：00 年股权成本为负，今天实际利率为负。”她说。“但泡沫的最后一个迹象——企业/消费者过度杠杆——已经转移到了政府身上。”</blockquote></p><p> In terms of asset classes to favor, Subramanian said prioritize commodities, then cash, then stocks and then bonds in 2022. She also said she prefers small caps versus large caps and value stocks versus growth.</p><p><blockquote>就青睐的资产类别而言，Subramanian 表示，2022 年优先考虑大宗商品，然后是现金，然后是股票，最后是债券。她还表示，她更喜欢小盘股而不是大盘股，更喜欢价值股而不是成长股。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Goldman Sachs (Target: 5,100): 'The equity bull market will continue'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛（目标：5,100）：“股票牛市将持续”</b></blockquote></p><p> Corporate profits are set to be the&nbsp;driving force for a further rise in the stock market next year,according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist. The firm expects the S&amp;P 500 to climb to 5,100 by the end of 2022, marking a nearly 9% rise from Dec. 22's closing prices.</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席美国股票策略师大卫·科斯汀表示，企业利润将成为明年股市进一步上涨的动力。该公司预计，到 2022 年底，标普500将攀升至 5,100 辆，比 12 月 22 日的收盘价上涨近 9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24d62556aecb6ba8e396c1bda82f9d5c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A trader looks up at a chart on his computer screen while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>一名交易员在纽约证券交易所工作时抬头查看电脑屏幕上的图表。路透社/卢卡斯·杰克逊（美国 - 标签：商业 TPX 每日图片）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"Profit growth has accounted for the entire S&amp;P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022,\" wrote Kostin in a note. \"S&amp;P 500 EPS will grow by 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023.\"</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀在一份报告中写道：“利润增长占了 2021 年标普500的全部回报，并将继续推动 2022 年的收益。”“2022 年标普500每股收益将增长 8%，达到 226 美元，2023 年将增长 4%，达到 236 美元。”</blockquote></p><p> Companies will likely continue to expand profit margins even as input cost pressures and supply chain challenges linger, Kostin predicted, adding that he expects aggregate S&amp;P 500 company profit margins to expand by another 40 basis points to reach 12.6% next year. Still, he suggested avoiding investing in firms with high labor costs, and favoring growth stocks with high margins over low-margin or unprofitable growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀预测，即使投入成本压力和供应链挑战挥之不去，企业仍将继续扩大利润率，并补充说，他预计明年标普500企业总利润率将再扩大 40 个基点，达到 12.6%。尽管如此，他还是建议避免投资劳动力成本高的公司，并青睐高利润率的成长型股票，而不是低利润率或无利可图的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> While the economic recovery and commensurate strength in corporate profits will likely extend into next year, one key factor will shift in next year's investing environment and apply pressure to valuations, Kostin said.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀表示，虽然经济复苏和企业利润的相应强劲可能会延续到明年，但一个关键因素将改变明年的投资环境，并给估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed will begin to hike rates in July,\" Kostin said. \"Real interest rates will rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美联储将于7月开始加息，”科斯汀表示。“实际利率将会上升，巩固估值倍数的上限并推动股票市场的轮动。”</blockquote></p><p> \"However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist. Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs,\" he added. \"In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.\"</p><p><blockquote>“然而，当前股市的其他方面将持续存在。实际利率虽然上升，但仍将为负，投资者股票配置将继续创下历史新高，”他补充道。“与我们过去一年的预期相反，企业税率可能会在 2022 年保持不变，并在 2023 年上升。企业盈利将增长并推高股价。股票牛市将持续下去。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley (Target: 4,400): 'O</b><b>ur key message centers around multiple contraction'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利（目标：4,400）：'O</b><b>你的关键信息集中在多重收缩上</b></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley thinks stocks are going down next year.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利认为明年股市将会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, sees the S&amp;P 500 dipping to 4,400 next year, representing a drop of 6.3%, compared to Dec. 7's closing prices.The biggest driver of the dip will be multiple compression, with a higher-rate environment next year pressuring stock valuations as earnings growth continues at a slower rate.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师 Mike Wilson 预计明年标普500将跌至 4,400 点，较 12 月 7 日收盘价下跌 6.3%。下跌的最大驱动力将是多重压缩，随着盈利增长继续放缓，明年利率上升的环境将给股票估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"As we think about our forecasts for the year ahead, our key message centers around multiple contraction amid a continued mid-cycle de-rating, higher bond yields, and greater economic and earnings<i>uncertainty,\"</i>Wilson said in a note. \"While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当我们考虑对未来一年的预测时，我们的关键信息围绕着周期中期评级持续下调、债券收益率上升以及经济和盈利增长的多重收缩<i>不确定性，”</i>威尔逊在一份说明中说。“虽然整体指数的盈利仍然持久，但赢家和输家将更加分散，增长率将大幅放缓。”</blockquote></p><p> \"While our overall earnings forecast for 2023 is about in-line with consensus ($245; 8% growth), we believe there is scope for significant dispersion — suggesting stock selection will provide plenty of opportunity in 2022 even if the index doesn't do much point to point,\" he added. \"Bottom line, 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.\"</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们对 2023 年的总体盈利预测与共识大致一致（245 美元；增长 8%），但我们认为存在显着分散的空间——这表明即使指数没有做太多事情，股票选择也将在 2022 年提供大量机会。点对点，”他补充道。“我们认为，底线是，2022 年将更多地关注股票，而不是行业或风格。”</blockquote></p><p> As interest rates set to move higher next year, bank stocks may benefit and outperform relative to long-duration growth stocks that would see valuations most pressured by rising rates, Wilson noted. However, \"reasonably priced growth and defensive quality should hold up\" as well, he added.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊指出，随着明年利率将走高，银行股可能会受益并优于长期成长型股票，而长期成长型股票的估值将受到利率上升的最大压力。然而，他补充说，“价格合理的增长和防御性质量也应该能保持下去”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"We think the obsession with Value vs. Growth will start to die down as idiosyncratic risk becomes the key,\" Wilson said. \"Much like 2021, we could see periods of Value and Growth outperformance that is dependent on the market's current posture regarding macro growth and rates. For the moment, we have a slight bias toward Value given its higher leverage to rising interest rates and inflation, which should be with us through year-end.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊表示：“我们认为，随着特殊风险成为关键，对价值与增长的痴迷将开始消退。”“就像 2021 年一样，我们可能会看到价值和增长跑赢大盘的时期，这取决于市场当前对宏观增长和利率的态势。目前，我们对价值略有偏见，因为它对利率上升和通货膨胀的杠杆作用更大，这应该会伴随我们到年底。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone<blockquote>2022 年股市：一些华尔街策略师看涨，而另一些策略师则持谨慎态度</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone<blockquote>2022 年股市：一些华尔街策略师看涨，而另一些策略师则持谨慎态度</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 13:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.</p><p><blockquote>策略师们已经开始对明年的股市做出展望——在今年两位数的涨幅之后，许多人正在降低预期。</blockquote></p><p> Against a backdrop of vaccinations, easing lockdown measures and a broad-based economic reopening, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;rose by about 25% in 2021 through market close on Dec. 22. The blue-chip index has also more than doubled from its March 23, 2020 nadir.</p><p><blockquote>在疫苗接种、放松封锁措施和广泛经济重新开放的背景下，截至12月22日收盘，标普500在2021年上涨了约25%。蓝筹股指数也较2020年3月23日的最低点上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc520db74600e8e9c46338ba7ac718c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is unlikely to repeat these kinds of returns next year, based on the projections of a number of pundits. With market participants pricing in at least one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and an initial boost from the reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus fading, the easy gains for this cycle are likely in the past. And more than one strategist thinks stocks are set to decline at least modestly next year from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>根据一些专家的预测，标普500明年不太可能重复这种回报。随着市场参与者预计美联储至少会加息一次，以及重新开放带来的初步提振，以及货币和财政刺激措施的消退，过去可能会轻松上涨。不止一位策略师认为，明年股市至少会从当前水平小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Here's what some strategists from top Wall Street firms are predicting for the stock market next year.</p><p><blockquote>以下是华尔街顶级公司的一些策略师对明年股市的预测。</blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oppenheimer (5,330): 'The noise stemming from negative projections ... should not obscure the signals of progress'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奥本海默（5,330）：“来自负投影的噪声……不应掩盖进步的迹象</b></blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus&nbsp;has struck an especially upbeat tone on stocks for 2022, projecting another year of double-digit gains as economic growth remains robust and policymakers move to address concerns over rising prices.</p><p><blockquote>奥本海默策略师约翰·斯托尔茨福斯 (John Stoltzfus) 对 2022 年股市表达了特别乐观的基调，预计随着经济增长依然强劲，政策制定者采取行动解决对价格上涨的担忧，股市将再次实现两位数涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer's outlook sees the S&amp;P 500 climbing to 5,330 by year-end 2022. This would represent an about 13.5% increase from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>奥本海默的展望是，到 2022 年底，标普500将攀升至 5,330。这将比 12 月 22 日的收盘价上涨约 13.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We suggest that investors not let near-term uncertainty obfuscate progress being made as the central bank adjusts monetary policy to meet higher-than-expected inflation and as the U.S. and global economy navigate current challenges to re-openings posed by COVID-19 variants and supply chain disruptions,\" Stoltzfus wrote in a note published on Dec. 20.</p><p><blockquote>“我们建议投资者不要让近期的不确定性模糊正在取得的进展，因为央行调整货币政策以应对高于预期的通胀，以及美国和全球经济应对当前由 COVID-19 变种和供应链中断带来的重新开放挑战，”斯托尔茨福斯在 12 月 20 日发布的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> \"In our view, the noise stemming from negative projections coming from some traders, skeptics, bears and fear-mongers of late should not obscure the signals of progress that have been made societally and economically since the pandemic struck globally in March 2020 through to the current day,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为，最近一些交易员、怀疑论者、看空者和恐惧制造者的负面预测所产生的噪音不应掩盖自 2020 年 3 月疫情席卷全球以来社会和经济取得的进步信号。直到今天，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Stoltzfus noted that the firm remains overweight U.S. equities, while also \"maintaining meaningful exposure to both developed and emerging markets on expectations that an economic recovery stateside coming out of the COVID-19 emergency will help boost economic growth around the world and lead to a global economic expansion.\"</p><p><blockquote>Stoltzfus 指出，该公司仍持有美国股票，同时“由于预计美国摆脱 COVID-19 紧急情况后的经济复苏将有助于促进全球经济增长并导致全球经济扩张，因此对发达市场和新兴市场保持有意义的敞口。”</blockquote></p><p> In terms of sectors, Oppenheimer favors information technology and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors. And in terms of style, Stoltzfus. And for investing style, Oppenheimer said it prefers a barbell approach that includes both value and growth stocks, given the backdrop of what is likely to be rising, but still historically low interest rates next year.</p><p><blockquote>在板块方面，奥本海默更青睐信息技术和周期性股票，而不是防御性板块。就风格而言，Stoltzfus。对于投资风格，奥本海默表示，考虑到明年利率可能上升但仍处于历史低位的背景，它更喜欢杠铃法，包括价值股和成长型股。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Credit Suisse (5,200): S&amp;P 500 target raised 'on robust projections for economic growth'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>瑞士信贷 (5,200)：“基于强劲的经济增长预测”上调标普500目标</b></blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub is getting more bullish on stocks for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师乔纳森·戈卢布 (Jonathan Golub) 更加看好 2022 年的股市。</blockquote></p><p> The firm raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 price target to 5,200, from the 5,000 seen previously. The updated forecast also predicts another year of double-digit appreciation for the index, with an estimated rise of nearly 11% from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将 2022 年标普500目标价格从之前的 5,000 美元上调至 5,200 美元。更新后的预测还预测该指数将再次实现两位数上涨，预计较 12 月 22 日收盘价上涨近 11%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening,\" Golub wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>戈卢布在一份报告中写道：“这种建设性的前景是基于对实际和名义经济增长的强劲预测、周期性板块的利润率进一步上升、回购量增加以及尽管美联储收紧货币政策但有利的贴现率。”</blockquote></p><p> The firm also raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 aggregate earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $235, up from the $230 seen previously. The revision assumes that a corporate tax rate increase will not take effect next year out of Washington.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还将 2022 年标普500每股收益 (EPS) 预测从之前的 230 美元上调至 235 美元。该修订假设明年华盛顿以外的公司税率上调不会生效。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse is Overweight cyclical sectors including energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary (excluding internet retailers), given expectations for \"robust GDP and inflation\" and continued earnings momentum. The firm is market weight \"TECH+,\" or technology, internet services and internet retail firms.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于对“强劲的GDP和通胀”以及持续的盈利势头的预期，瑞士信贷正在跑赢大盘能源、材料、工业和非必需消费品（不包括互联网零售商）等周期性行业。该公司是市场权重“TECH+”，即技术、互联网服务和互联网零售公司。</blockquote></p><p> \"We would reevaluate this positioning should the yield curve flatten further, nominal growth fade, or earnings trends reverse,\" Golub wrote. \"We are downgrading Financials and Health Care to Underweight, on weaker growth prospects in 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>戈卢布写道：“如果收益率曲线进一步趋平、名义增长消退或盈利趋势逆转，我们将重新评估这一定位。”“由于 2022 年增长前景疲软，我们将下调跑输大盘的金融和医疗保健评级。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>JPMorgan (Target 5,050): '2022 will be a strong year for economic recovery and performance of cyclical assets'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根大通（目标 5,050）：“2022 年将是经济复苏和周期性资产表现强劲的一年”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> JPMorgan sees stocks building on gains next year, albeit at a slower clip than in the last few years. And with interest rates poised to rise, cyclical areas of the market — both in the U.S. and internationally — are set to be some of the strongest performers, suggested Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通预计明年股市将继续上涨，尽管增速比过去几年放缓。摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇表示，随着利率即将上升，美国和国际市场的周期性领域将成为表现最强劲的领域。</blockquote></p><p> The firm forecasted that the S&amp;P 500 would reach 5,050 by year-end 2022, representing a rise of about 7.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预测，到 2022 年底，标普500将达到 5,050 人，比 12 月 22 日的收盘水平增长约 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to our 2021 forecast; however, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver 2-3 times higher returns,\" Kolanovic wrote. \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.\"</p><p><blockquote>科拉诺维奇写道：“与我们 2021 年的预测相比，这意味着升值百分比较小；然而，我们确实认为国际股票、新兴市场和周期性市场细分市场将大幅跑赢大盘，并带来 2-3 倍的回报。”“这样做的原因是我们对加息和边际收紧货币政策的预期，这应该会对纳斯达克等高倍数市场构成阻力。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" he added. JPMorgan expects the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to climb to 2.25% by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>“在美国国内，我们喜欢重新开放和再通胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者，”他补充道。摩根大通预计，到明年年底，基准 10 年期国债收益率将攀升至 2.25%。</blockquote></p><p> \"What are the risks to our view? As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility,\" Kolanovic added. \"There are other risks that investors will need to monitor and manage in 2022. They include increased geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia (in particular related to Ukraine and Iran), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties around high inflation, and the path of monetary policy normalization.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为存在哪些风险？随着复苏的进行，市场将开始适应收紧的货币条件，这一过程可能会带来波动性，”科拉诺维奇补充道。“2022 年投资者还需要监控和管理其他风险。其中包括欧洲和亚洲地缘政治紧张局势加剧（特别是与乌克兰和伊朗有关）、迫在眉睫的能源危机、高通胀的不确定性以及货币政策正常化的路径。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>DWS Group (Target: 5,000): 'When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DWS Group（目标：5,000）：“就市盈率而言，它们站在债券市场的肩膀上”</b></blockquote></p><p> DWS Group expects the S&amp;P 500 will rise further into next year, supported by a combination of sustained — if slowing, earnings and economic growth — and a contained rise in rates.</p><p><blockquote>DWS集团预计，在持续（如果放缓）盈利和经济增长以及利率控制上升的共同支撑下，明年标普500将进一步上升。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our view for risk assets is simply, it should be another good year in 2022,\" David Bianco, DWS Group chief investment officer, Americas, said during a media call on Dec. 1. \"With lower inflation, slowing inflation, we should be comfortable with the idea that interest rates, both nominal and real, only climb modestly.\"</p><p><blockquote>DWS 集团美洲首席投资官 David Bianco 在 12 月 1 日的媒体看涨期权上表示：“我们对风险资产的看法很简单，2022 年应该又是一个好年份。”“随着通胀下降、通胀放缓，我们应该对名义利率和实际利率只会温和上升的想法感到满意。”</blockquote></p><p> The firm expects to see the S&amp;P 500 end 2022 at 5,000, growing by nearly 6.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预计 2022 年底标普500将达到 5,000 人，比 12 月 22 日的收盘水平增长近 6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"So far, long-term interest rates have only climbed slightly, and long-term real interest rates which are key for the PE [price-earnings ratio] of U.S. equities and equities worldwide, they're still near all-time lows,\" he added. \"When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market.\"</p><p><blockquote>“到目前为止，长期利率仅小幅攀升，而作为美国股市和全球股市市盈率关键的长期实际利率仍接近历史低点，”他补充道。“说到市盈率，它们站在债券市场的肩膀上。”</blockquote></p><p> Bianco expects the S&amp;P 500's PE multiple, which has been trading at about 22 times current earnings, will be sustained through next year. The firm also anticipates S&amp;P 500 companies' aggregate earnings per share (EPS) will come in at about $228 for 2022, growing by 7% from an estimated $213 level this year. This earnings view assumes no corporate tax hikes in the U.S. in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Bianco 预计标准普尔 500 指数的市盈率（其市盈率约为当前市盈率的 22 倍）将持续到明年。该公司还预计 2022 年标普500公司的每股总收益 (EPS) 将约为 228 美元，比今年预计的 213 美元增长 7%。这一盈利观点假设 2022 年美国不会提高企业税。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our view is that the equity market, the S&amp;P, is largely fairly valued, but our preferences for a long time have remained the digital businesses — technology, communications, growth stocks in general, a preference for intangible businesses — we've argued that these types of businesses actually do provide terrific inflation protection,\" Bianco said. \"This is not the 1970s, and often, we think the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best quality businesses. And look for businesses that are raising productivity, rather than raising price.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的观点是，股票市场（标准普尔指数）的估值基本上是合理的，但我们长期以来的偏好仍然是数字业务——技术、通信、一般的成长型股票，以及对无形业务的偏好——我们认为这些类型的业务实际上确实提供了极好的通胀保护，”比安科说。“现在不是 20 世纪 70 年代，我们通常认为抵御通货膨胀的最佳方法就是拥有最优质的企业。并寻找提高生产力而不是提高价格的企业。”</blockquote></p><p> Bianco also said the firm was Overweight the health care and financials sectors, with the latter constituting a beneficiary of higher rates given the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike next year.</p><p><blockquote>比安科还表示，该公司是医疗保健和金融行业的跑赢大盘，鉴于美联储明年可能至少加息一次，后者是加息的受益者。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bank of America (Target: 4,600): Look for 'inflation-protected yield'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国银行（目标：4,600）：寻找“通胀保值收益率”</b></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is poised to end 2022 slightly lower compared to present levels, according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的 Savita Subramanian 表示，到 2022 年底，标普500将略低于目前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> The firm's 2022 outlook sees the index ending next year at 4,600, or down by 2% compared to closing prices on Dec. 22. That would come alongside slowing earnings growth, with S&amp;P 500 earnings per share set to rise just 6.5% next year, based on Subramanian's projections.</p><p><blockquote>该公司 2022 年的展望预计该指数明年收于 4,600 点，较 12 月 22 日收盘价下跌 2%。与此同时，盈利增长也将放缓，根据 Subramanian 的预测，标普500明年每股收益将仅增长 6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations for a higher discount rate serve as one of the main drivers for this outlook, with next year's predicted higher-rate environment weighing on stock valuations. Plus, as rates rise, other assets will compete for investor attention next year, Subramanian added.</p><p><blockquote>对更高贴现率的预期是这一前景的主要驱动因素之一，明年预计的更高利率环境会给股票估值带来压力。此外，随着利率上升，明年其他资产将争夺投资者的注意力，Subramanian补充道。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"What happens to the TINA ('There is no alternative' to stocks) argument if cash yields rival the S&amp;P 500's 1.3% dividend yield, and the 10-year yield hits 2% by YE [year-end] 2022? Dividend growth needs to keep up, thus, our theme: inflation-protected yield,\" Subramanian said. \"Inflation-protected yield favors Energy, Financials and Real Estate.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果现金收益率与标准普尔 500 指数 1.3% 的股息收益率相媲美，并且到 2022 年 YE [年底] 10 年期收益率达到 2%，那么 TINA（‘股票别无选择’）论点会发生什么？因此，股息增长需要跟上我们的主题：通胀保值收益率，”苏布拉马尼安说。“通胀保值收益率有利于能源、金融和房地产。”</blockquote></p><p> \"What will we say when we look back at today? Probably similar comments to 2000 hindsight: lofty expectations, Wall St. stock allocations up ~20 [percentage points], retail/democratized markets, frenzied IPO activity; first Fed hike into an overvalued market. And acceptance of the unthinkable: a negative cost of equity in '00, negative real rates today.\" she said. \"But the last sign of a bubble — excessive corporate/ consumer leverage — has been transferred to the government.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当我们今天回顾时，我们会说什么？可能与 2000 年事后看来类似的评论：崇高的期望、华尔街股票配置增加了约 20 个百分点、零售/民主化市场、疯狂的 IPO 活动；美联储首次加息进入估值过高的市场。以及接受不可思议的事情：00 年股权成本为负，今天实际利率为负。”她说。“但泡沫的最后一个迹象——企业/消费者过度杠杆——已经转移到了政府身上。”</blockquote></p><p> In terms of asset classes to favor, Subramanian said prioritize commodities, then cash, then stocks and then bonds in 2022. She also said she prefers small caps versus large caps and value stocks versus growth.</p><p><blockquote>就青睐的资产类别而言，Subramanian 表示，2022 年优先考虑大宗商品，然后是现金，然后是股票，最后是债券。她还表示，她更喜欢小盘股而不是大盘股，更喜欢价值股而不是成长股。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Goldman Sachs (Target: 5,100): 'The equity bull market will continue'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛（目标：5,100）：“股票牛市将持续”</b></blockquote></p><p> Corporate profits are set to be the&nbsp;driving force for a further rise in the stock market next year,according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist. The firm expects the S&amp;P 500 to climb to 5,100 by the end of 2022, marking a nearly 9% rise from Dec. 22's closing prices.</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席美国股票策略师大卫·科斯汀表示，企业利润将成为明年股市进一步上涨的动力。该公司预计，到 2022 年底，标普500将攀升至 5,100 辆，比 12 月 22 日的收盘价上涨近 9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24d62556aecb6ba8e396c1bda82f9d5c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A trader looks up at a chart on his computer screen while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>一名交易员在纽约证券交易所工作时抬头查看电脑屏幕上的图表。路透社/卢卡斯·杰克逊（美国 - 标签：商业 TPX 每日图片）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"Profit growth has accounted for the entire S&amp;P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022,\" wrote Kostin in a note. \"S&amp;P 500 EPS will grow by 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023.\"</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀在一份报告中写道：“利润增长占了 2021 年标普500的全部回报，并将继续推动 2022 年的收益。”“2022 年标普500每股收益将增长 8%，达到 226 美元，2023 年将增长 4%，达到 236 美元。”</blockquote></p><p> Companies will likely continue to expand profit margins even as input cost pressures and supply chain challenges linger, Kostin predicted, adding that he expects aggregate S&amp;P 500 company profit margins to expand by another 40 basis points to reach 12.6% next year. Still, he suggested avoiding investing in firms with high labor costs, and favoring growth stocks with high margins over low-margin or unprofitable growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀预测，即使投入成本压力和供应链挑战挥之不去，企业仍将继续扩大利润率，并补充说，他预计明年标普500企业总利润率将再扩大 40 个基点，达到 12.6%。尽管如此，他还是建议避免投资劳动力成本高的公司，并青睐高利润率的成长型股票，而不是低利润率或无利可图的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> While the economic recovery and commensurate strength in corporate profits will likely extend into next year, one key factor will shift in next year's investing environment and apply pressure to valuations, Kostin said.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀表示，虽然经济复苏和企业利润的相应强劲可能会延续到明年，但一个关键因素将改变明年的投资环境，并给估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed will begin to hike rates in July,\" Kostin said. \"Real interest rates will rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美联储将于7月开始加息，”科斯汀表示。“实际利率将会上升，巩固估值倍数的上限并推动股票市场的轮动。”</blockquote></p><p> \"However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist. Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs,\" he added. \"In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.\"</p><p><blockquote>“然而，当前股市的其他方面将持续存在。实际利率虽然上升，但仍将为负，投资者股票配置将继续创下历史新高，”他补充道。“与我们过去一年的预期相反，企业税率可能会在 2022 年保持不变，并在 2023 年上升。企业盈利将增长并推高股价。股票牛市将持续下去。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley (Target: 4,400): 'O</b><b>ur key message centers around multiple contraction'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利（目标：4,400）：'O</b><b>你的关键信息集中在多重收缩上</b></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley thinks stocks are going down next year.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利认为明年股市将会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, sees the S&amp;P 500 dipping to 4,400 next year, representing a drop of 6.3%, compared to Dec. 7's closing prices.The biggest driver of the dip will be multiple compression, with a higher-rate environment next year pressuring stock valuations as earnings growth continues at a slower rate.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师 Mike Wilson 预计明年标普500将跌至 4,400 点，较 12 月 7 日收盘价下跌 6.3%。下跌的最大驱动力将是多重压缩，随着盈利增长继续放缓，明年利率上升的环境将给股票估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"As we think about our forecasts for the year ahead, our key message centers around multiple contraction amid a continued mid-cycle de-rating, higher bond yields, and greater economic and earnings<i>uncertainty,\"</i>Wilson said in a note. \"While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当我们考虑对未来一年的预测时，我们的关键信息围绕着周期中期评级持续下调、债券收益率上升以及经济和盈利增长的多重收缩<i>不确定性，”</i>威尔逊在一份说明中说。“虽然整体指数的盈利仍然持久，但赢家和输家将更加分散，增长率将大幅放缓。”</blockquote></p><p> \"While our overall earnings forecast for 2023 is about in-line with consensus ($245; 8% growth), we believe there is scope for significant dispersion — suggesting stock selection will provide plenty of opportunity in 2022 even if the index doesn't do much point to point,\" he added. \"Bottom line, 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.\"</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们对 2023 年的总体盈利预测与共识大致一致（245 美元；增长 8%），但我们认为存在显着分散的空间——这表明即使指数没有做太多事情，股票选择也将在 2022 年提供大量机会。点对点，”他补充道。“我们认为，底线是，2022 年将更多地关注股票，而不是行业或风格。”</blockquote></p><p> As interest rates set to move higher next year, bank stocks may benefit and outperform relative to long-duration growth stocks that would see valuations most pressured by rising rates, Wilson noted. However, \"reasonably priced growth and defensive quality should hold up\" as well, he added.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊指出，随着明年利率将走高，银行股可能会受益并优于长期成长型股票，而长期成长型股票的估值将受到利率上升的最大压力。然而，他补充说，“价格合理的增长和防御性质量也应该能保持下去”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"We think the obsession with Value vs. Growth will start to die down as idiosyncratic risk becomes the key,\" Wilson said. \"Much like 2021, we could see periods of Value and Growth outperformance that is dependent on the market's current posture regarding macro growth and rates. For the moment, we have a slight bias toward Value given its higher leverage to rising interest rates and inflation, which should be with us through year-end.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊表示：“我们认为，随着特殊风险成为关键，对价值与增长的痴迷将开始消退。”“就像 2021 年一样，我们可能会看到价值和增长跑赢大盘的时期，这取决于市场当前对宏观增长和利率的态势。目前，我们对价值略有偏见，因为它对利率上升和通货膨胀的杠杆作用更大，这应该会伴随我们到年底。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的目标价格</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-equity-outlook-2022-193659328.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-equity-outlook-2022-193659328.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195213621","content_text":"Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.\nAgainst a backdrop of vaccinations, easing lockdown measures and a broad-based economic reopening, the S&P 500 rose by about 25% in 2021 through market close on Dec. 22. The blue-chip index has also more than doubled from its March 23, 2020 nadir.\n\nThe S&P 500 is unlikely to repeat these kinds of returns next year, based on the projections of a number of pundits. With market participants pricing in at least one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and an initial boost from the reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus fading, the easy gains for this cycle are likely in the past. And more than one strategist thinks stocks are set to decline at least modestly next year from current levels.\nHere's what some strategists from top Wall Street firms are predicting for the stock market next year.\n—\nOppenheimer (5,330): 'The noise stemming from negative projections ... should not obscure the signals of progress'\nOppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus has struck an especially upbeat tone on stocks for 2022, projecting another year of double-digit gains as economic growth remains robust and policymakers move to address concerns over rising prices.\nOppenheimer's outlook sees the S&P 500 climbing to 5,330 by year-end 2022. This would represent an about 13.5% increase from closing prices on Dec. 22.\n\"We suggest that investors not let near-term uncertainty obfuscate progress being made as the central bank adjusts monetary policy to meet higher-than-expected inflation and as the U.S. and global economy navigate current challenges to re-openings posed by COVID-19 variants and supply chain disruptions,\" Stoltzfus wrote in a note published on Dec. 20.\n\"In our view, the noise stemming from negative projections coming from some traders, skeptics, bears and fear-mongers of late should not obscure the signals of progress that have been made societally and economically since the pandemic struck globally in March 2020 through to the current day,\" he added.\nStoltzfus noted that the firm remains overweight U.S. equities, while also \"maintaining meaningful exposure to both developed and emerging markets on expectations that an economic recovery stateside coming out of the COVID-19 emergency will help boost economic growth around the world and lead to a global economic expansion.\"\nIn terms of sectors, Oppenheimer favors information technology and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors. And in terms of style, Stoltzfus. And for investing style, Oppenheimer said it prefers a barbell approach that includes both value and growth stocks, given the backdrop of what is likely to be rising, but still historically low interest rates next year.\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nCredit Suisse (5,200): S&P 500 target raised 'on robust projections for economic growth'\nCredit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub is getting more bullish on stocks for 2022.\nThe firm raised its 2022 S&P 500 price target to 5,200, from the 5,000 seen previously. The updated forecast also predicts another year of double-digit appreciation for the index, with an estimated rise of nearly 11% from closing prices on Dec. 22.\n\"This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening,\" Golub wrote in a note.\nThe firm also raised its 2022 S&P 500 aggregate earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $235, up from the $230 seen previously. The revision assumes that a corporate tax rate increase will not take effect next year out of Washington.\nCredit Suisse is Overweight cyclical sectors including energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary (excluding internet retailers), given expectations for \"robust GDP and inflation\" and continued earnings momentum. The firm is market weight \"TECH+,\" or technology, internet services and internet retail firms.\n\"We would reevaluate this positioning should the yield curve flatten further, nominal growth fade, or earnings trends reverse,\" Golub wrote. \"We are downgrading Financials and Health Care to Underweight, on weaker growth prospects in 2022.\"\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nJPMorgan (Target 5,050): '2022 will be a strong year for economic recovery and performance of cyclical assets'\nJPMorgan sees stocks building on gains next year, albeit at a slower clip than in the last few years. And with interest rates poised to rise, cyclical areas of the market — both in the U.S. and internationally — are set to be some of the strongest performers, suggested Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.\nThe firm forecasted that the S&P 500 would reach 5,050 by year-end 2022, representing a rise of about 7.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.\n\"This represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to our 2021 forecast; however, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver 2-3 times higher returns,\" Kolanovic wrote. \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" he added. JPMorgan expects the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to climb to 2.25% by the end of next year.\n\"What are the risks to our view? As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility,\" Kolanovic added. \"There are other risks that investors will need to monitor and manage in 2022. They include increased geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia (in particular related to Ukraine and Iran), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties around high inflation, and the path of monetary policy normalization.\"\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nDWS Group (Target: 5,000): 'When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market'\nDWS Group expects the S&P 500 will rise further into next year, supported by a combination of sustained — if slowing, earnings and economic growth — and a contained rise in rates.\n\"Our view for risk assets is simply, it should be another good year in 2022,\" David Bianco, DWS Group chief investment officer, Americas, said during a media call on Dec. 1. \"With lower inflation, slowing inflation, we should be comfortable with the idea that interest rates, both nominal and real, only climb modestly.\"\nThe firm expects to see the S&P 500 end 2022 at 5,000, growing by nearly 6.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.\n\"So far, long-term interest rates have only climbed slightly, and long-term real interest rates which are key for the PE [price-earnings ratio] of U.S. equities and equities worldwide, they're still near all-time lows,\" he added. \"When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market.\"\nBianco expects the S&P 500's PE multiple, which has been trading at about 22 times current earnings, will be sustained through next year. The firm also anticipates S&P 500 companies' aggregate earnings per share (EPS) will come in at about $228 for 2022, growing by 7% from an estimated $213 level this year. This earnings view assumes no corporate tax hikes in the U.S. in 2022.\n\"Our view is that the equity market, the S&P, is largely fairly valued, but our preferences for a long time have remained the digital businesses — technology, communications, growth stocks in general, a preference for intangible businesses — we've argued that these types of businesses actually do provide terrific inflation protection,\" Bianco said. \"This is not the 1970s, and often, we think the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best quality businesses. And look for businesses that are raising productivity, rather than raising price.\"\nBianco also said the firm was Overweight the health care and financials sectors, with the latter constituting a beneficiary of higher rates given the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike next year.\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nBank of America (Target: 4,600): Look for 'inflation-protected yield'\nThe S&P 500 is poised to end 2022 slightly lower compared to present levels, according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.\nThe firm's 2022 outlook sees the index ending next year at 4,600, or down by 2% compared to closing prices on Dec. 22. That would come alongside slowing earnings growth, with S&P 500 earnings per share set to rise just 6.5% next year, based on Subramanian's projections.\nExpectations for a higher discount rate serve as one of the main drivers for this outlook, with next year's predicted higher-rate environment weighing on stock valuations. Plus, as rates rise, other assets will compete for investor attention next year, Subramanian added.\n\"What happens to the TINA ('There is no alternative' to stocks) argument if cash yields rival the S&P 500's 1.3% dividend yield, and the 10-year yield hits 2% by YE [year-end] 2022? Dividend growth needs to keep up, thus, our theme: inflation-protected yield,\" Subramanian said. \"Inflation-protected yield favors Energy, Financials and Real Estate.\"\n\"What will we say when we look back at today? Probably similar comments to 2000 hindsight: lofty expectations, Wall St. stock allocations up ~20 [percentage points], retail/democratized markets, frenzied IPO activity; first Fed hike into an overvalued market. And acceptance of the unthinkable: a negative cost of equity in '00, negative real rates today.\" she said. \"But the last sign of a bubble — excessive corporate/ consumer leverage — has been transferred to the government.\"\nIn terms of asset classes to favor, Subramanian said prioritize commodities, then cash, then stocks and then bonds in 2022. She also said she prefers small caps versus large caps and value stocks versus growth.\nPrice target as of November 2021\n—\nGoldman Sachs (Target: 5,100): 'The equity bull market will continue'\nCorporate profits are set to be the driving force for a further rise in the stock market next year,according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist. The firm expects the S&P 500 to climb to 5,100 by the end of 2022, marking a nearly 9% rise from Dec. 22's closing prices.\nA trader looks up at a chart on his computer screen while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)\n\"Profit growth has accounted for the entire S&P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022,\" wrote Kostin in a note. \"S&P 500 EPS will grow by 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023.\"\nCompanies will likely continue to expand profit margins even as input cost pressures and supply chain challenges linger, Kostin predicted, adding that he expects aggregate S&P 500 company profit margins to expand by another 40 basis points to reach 12.6% next year. Still, he suggested avoiding investing in firms with high labor costs, and favoring growth stocks with high margins over low-margin or unprofitable growth stocks.\nWhile the economic recovery and commensurate strength in corporate profits will likely extend into next year, one key factor will shift in next year's investing environment and apply pressure to valuations, Kostin said.\n\"The Fed will begin to hike rates in July,\" Kostin said. \"Real interest rates will rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market.\"\n\"However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist. Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs,\" he added. \"In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.\"\nPrice target as of November 2021\n—\nMorgan Stanley (Target: 4,400): 'Our key message centers around multiple contraction'\nMorgan Stanley thinks stocks are going down next year.\nMike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, sees the S&P 500 dipping to 4,400 next year, representing a drop of 6.3%, compared to Dec. 7's closing prices.The biggest driver of the dip will be multiple compression, with a higher-rate environment next year pressuring stock valuations as earnings growth continues at a slower rate.\n\"As we think about our forecasts for the year ahead, our key message centers around multiple contraction amid a continued mid-cycle de-rating, higher bond yields, and greater economic and earningsuncertainty,\"Wilson said in a note. \"While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially.\"\n\"While our overall earnings forecast for 2023 is about in-line with consensus ($245; 8% growth), we believe there is scope for significant dispersion — suggesting stock selection will provide plenty of opportunity in 2022 even if the index doesn't do much point to point,\" he added. \"Bottom line, 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.\"\nAs interest rates set to move higher next year, bank stocks may benefit and outperform relative to long-duration growth stocks that would see valuations most pressured by rising rates, Wilson noted. However, \"reasonably priced growth and defensive quality should hold up\" as well, he added.\n\"We think the obsession with Value vs. Growth will start to die down as idiosyncratic risk becomes the key,\" Wilson said. \"Much like 2021, we could see periods of Value and Growth outperformance that is dependent on the market's current posture regarding macro growth and rates. For the moment, we have a slight bias toward Value given its higher leverage to rising interest rates and inflation, which should be with us through year-end.\"\nPrice target as of November 2021","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693931584,"gmtCreate":1639959091358,"gmtModify":1639959091617,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561606993964516","idStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693931584","repostId":"1130472386","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605070575,"gmtCreate":1639097120696,"gmtModify":1639097120915,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561606993964516","idStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Commenting","listText":"Commenting","text":"Commenting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605070575","repostId":"1154976653","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606518993,"gmtCreate":1638891979810,"gmtModify":1638891980030,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561606993964516","idStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment like","listText":"Comment like","text":"Comment like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606518993","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608383277,"gmtCreate":1638626507964,"gmtModify":1638626508137,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561606993964516","idStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608383277","repostId":"2188520747","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600703966,"gmtCreate":1638195484476,"gmtModify":1638195484841,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561606993964516","idStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Testing&nbsp;","listText":"Testing&nbsp;","text":"Testing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600703966","repostId":"1106111099","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}