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  ·2021-02-10
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  Is the stock market due for a correction in 2021? Here’s what some experts think<blockquote>2021年股市会回调吗？以下是一些专家的看法</blockquote>
  A pullback for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index on Tuesday halted the longest
  Is the stock market due for a correction in 2021? Here’s what some experts think<blockquote>2021年股市会回调吗？以下是一些专家的看法</blockquote>
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11:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the stock market due for a correction in 2021? Here’s what some experts think<blockquote>2021年股市会回调吗？以下是一些专家的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169253231","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"A pullback for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index on Tuesday halted the longest ","content":"<p>A pullback for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 index on Tuesday halted the longest win streak for stocks in months, but a major concern for investors remains: Is there a major correction looming ahead?</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数周二的回调终结了几个月来股市最长的连涨势头，但投资者的一个主要担忧仍然是：未来是否有重大调整迫在眉睫？</blockquote></p><p> Even some bullish investors have called for a retrenchment in stocks as a sort of catharsis for the next leg higher and an unwind of some of the frenzied, retail-inspired betting that has repeatedly sent stocks to fresh records amid the COVID-19 recovery.</p><p><blockquote>甚至一些看涨的投资者也呼吁减持股票，以此作为下一波上涨的一种宣泄，并放松一些疯狂的、受零售驱动的赌博，这些赌博在 COVID-19 复苏期间一再将股市推向新纪录。</blockquote></p><p> A brief pullback that began in late January, tied to the trading fervor around GameStop Corp.&nbsp;and AMC Entertainment Holdings,saw markets test some short-term bullish trend lines, but recently the markets have managed to claw back to produce not-unspectacular returns in the early goings of a year chock-full of uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>1 月下旬开始的短暂回调，与游戏驿站公司和AMC院线控股公司的交易热情有关，市场测试了一些短期看涨趋势线，但最近市场设法回升，在年初产生了不容忽视的回报充满了不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;is up 2.5% so far in the year, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;is enjoying a more pronounced gain of over 4%, while the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;and Russell 2000&nbsp;indexes on Tuesday notched their 10th record closes in 2021 thus far.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数今年迄今已上涨 2.5%，标普500指数涨幅更为明显，超过 4%，而纳斯达克综合指数和罗素 2000 指数周二创下 2021 年迄今为止的第 10 个收盘纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The year-to-date gains in the large-cap Nasdaq, up 8.7%, and the Russell 2000, up 16.4%, reflect an odd convergence of investor bets: Those wagering on further prosperity in COVID-tested, large-capitalization growth stocks that worked in the aftermath of the pandemic in the U.S. back in March, alongside bets for a sizable rebound in small-cap, economically sensitive stocks represented in the Russell.</p><p><blockquote>大盘股纳斯达克今年迄今为止的涨幅为 8.7%，罗素 2000 指数上涨 16.4%，反映了投资者押注的奇怪趋同：那些押注经过 COVID 测试的大盘股进一步繁荣的人在 3 月份美国大流行后表现良好，同时押注罗素指数所代表的小盘股、经济敏感股票大幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> In either case, cautious investors and those worried that the good times can’t last forever are bracing for the next major slump for stocks, and ruminating on how it might play out.</p><p><blockquote>无论哪种情况，谨慎的投资者和那些担心好景不长的投资者都在为股市的下一次大暴跌做准备，并思考着它可能会如何发展。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson&nbsp;told CNBC during an interview&nbsp;that “It was brief, so if you blinked you missed it,” referring to the pullback in stocks in late January.</p><p><blockquote>本周早些时候，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）在接受 CNBC 采访时说：“时间很短，所以如果你眨眼，你就错过了”，他指的是 1 月底股市的回调。</blockquote></p><p> “That looks like that was it for now, and I mean, the markets are quite powerful at the moment, and they have been,” Wilson said.</p><p><blockquote>“威尔逊说：”目前看来就是这样，我的意思是，目前市场相当强劲，而且一直如此。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s tremendous liquidity, there’s a very good and very understandable story behind the scenes. Meaning, we’ve got a strong economic recovery that’s visible to everyone. The earnings season’s been good so far…and people have bought into it,” the Morgan Stanley analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>“这里有巨大的流动性，有一个非常好的、非常容易理解的幕后故事。也就是说，我们的经济复苏强劲，每个人都能看到。到目前为止，财报季表现不错.人们对此深信不疑，”摩根士丹利分析师说。</blockquote></p><p> He cautioned, however, that the market remains in a “a bit of a fragile state,” and warned that leverage swirling in the system could make pullbacks of 3% or 5% more of the norm.</p><p><blockquote>不过，他警告说，市场仍处于 “有点脆弱的状态”，并警告说，系统中的杠杆率可能会比正常水平高出 3% 或 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson did say, however, that the re-emergence of individual investors in financial markets would be a force to be reckoned with, and that they currently represent the marginal buyer on Wall Street keeping asset prices buoyant.</p><p><blockquote>然而，威尔逊确实表示，个人投资者在金融市场的重新出现将是一股不可忽视的力量，他们目前代表着华尔街保持资产价格浮动的边际买家。</blockquote></p><p> Keith&nbsp;Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, said that concerns of a stock bubble are overdone and not supported by the current batch of fourth-quarter earnings results, which his firm estimates will be the best since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>Truist Advisory Services 首席市场策略师基思·勒纳 (Keith Lerner) 表示，对股市泡沫的担忧被夸大了，并且没有得到当前一批第四季度盈利结果的支持，他的公司预计这将是自 2008 年金融危机以来最好的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/614ce86d6f888394bc0303ea4afc4f16\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"914\"><span>TRUIST ADVISORY SERVICES INC./SUNTRUST ADVISORY SERVICES INC.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>TRUIST咨询服务公司/SUNTRUST咨询服务公司。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> “Although there are frothy segments of the market that are detached from fundamentals, we do not see bubble conditions more broadly,” Lerner wrote in a research report dated Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>“勒纳在周二的一份研究报告中写道：”虽然市场上存在一些与基本面脱节的泡沫细分市场，但我们并没有看到更广泛的泡沫状况。</blockquote></p><p> “Instead, we see a stock market that is trading at a premium to historical valuations—partly justified by low rates, a shift in sector composition toward higher-valued growth sectors, supportive monetary and fiscal policy, as well as cheaper access to markets (i.e., secular decline in commissions and fund fees),” the Truist analysts added, noting that a lower barrier to entry for individual investors also was providing support for stock values.</p><p><blockquote>“Truist 分析师补充说：”相反，我们看到的股市交易价格高于历史估值--部分原因是低利率、行业构成向估值较高的成长型行业转变、支持性的货币和财政政策，以及更便宜的市场准入（即佣金和基金费用的长期下降）。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Daniel Pinto, a co-president at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.,told CNBC in a Q&amp;A&nbsp;that he expects the stock market to grind higher.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根大通联席总裁丹尼尔·平托在问答中告诉 CNBC，他预计股市将走高。</blockquote></p><p> “I think the market will gradually grind up during the year,” he told the news network. “I don’t see a correction anytime soon, unless the situation changes dramatically,” he said, describing possible downturns as mini corrections that won’t necessarily change the overall bullish trend.</p><p><blockquote>“他对新闻网说：”我认为市场将在今年逐渐磨合。他说：“除非形势发生巨大变化，否则我不认为会很快出现回调。”他将可能出现的低迷描述为小幅回调，不一定会改变整体看涨趋势。</blockquote></p><p> What could change things?</p><p><blockquote>什么能改变事情？</blockquote></p><p> Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, in a Tuesday report said that optimism in the U.S. market is driven by three actors: Support from monetary and fiscal policy, progress in COVID vaccinations and the solid quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>AvaTrade首席市场分析师Naeem Aslam在周二的一份报告中表示，美国市场的乐观情绪是由三个因素推动的：货币和财政政策的支持、新冠疫苗接种的进展以及稳健的季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> “Basically, it seems like the stars are getting in line, and there are strong odds stacked in favour of another bull rally,” Aslam wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“阿斯拉姆写道：”基本上，看起来明星们都在排队，牛市再次反弹的可能性很大。</blockquote></p><p> “In other words, we need something major changing in the current catalyst to shift the market narrative among traders that can trigger a minor pullback—let alone a serious correction,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“他补充说：”换句话说，我们需要对当前的催化剂进行一些重大改变，以改变交易者对市场的看法，从而引发小幅回调，更不用说严重的回调了。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> MarketWatch’s William Watts writes&nbsp;that some experts are pointing to the 2009 stock market as the closest parallel to the current setup for equities. Quoting Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, Watts noted that 2021 could play out more like the postcrisis scenario seen in 2010, which would point the way to a “solid year” for the market, but with a bumpy ride thanks to “multiple first-half corrections.”</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch 的威廉-瓦茨（William Watts）写道，一些专家指出，2009 年的股市与当前的股市结构最相似。瓦茨援引 Canaccord Genuity 首席市场策略师托尼-德怀尔（Tony Dwyer）的话说，2021 年可能会更像 2010 年的危机后情景，这将为市场指明一个 “稳健的一年”，但由于 “上半年的多次调整 ”，市场将经历一段坎坷的旅程。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the bumpiness might emanate from the bond market, with the 10-yearTMUBMUSD10Y,1.162%and 30-year TreasurysTMUBMUSD30Y,1.950%testing recent yield highs and putting some pressure on equities.</p><p><blockquote>部分低迷可能来自债券市场，10 年期 MUBMUSD10Y，1.162% 和 30 年期国债 STMUBMUSD30Y，1.950% 测试了近期的收益率高点，并给股市带来了一些压力。</blockquote></p><p> The so-called reflation trade, where yields rise and investors gravitate to investments that might prosper in better economic times, has provided a number of false dawns for investors so far.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的再通胀交易，即收益率上升，投资者被可能在经济形势好转时蓬勃发展的投资所吸引，迄今为止，这给投资者带来了许多虚假的曙光。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the stock market due for a correction in 2021? Here’s what some experts think<blockquote>2021年股市会回调吗？以下是一些专家的看法</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the stock market due for a correction in 2021? Here’s what some experts think<blockquote>2021年股市会回调吗？以下是一些专家的看法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-10 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A pullback for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 index on Tuesday halted the longest win streak for stocks in months, but a major concern for investors remains: Is there a major correction looming ahead?</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数周二的回调终结了几个月来股市最长的连涨势头，但投资者的一个主要担忧仍然是：未来是否有重大调整迫在眉睫？</blockquote></p><p> Even some bullish investors have called for a retrenchment in stocks as a sort of catharsis for the next leg higher and an unwind of some of the frenzied, retail-inspired betting that has repeatedly sent stocks to fresh records amid the COVID-19 recovery.</p><p><blockquote>甚至一些看涨的投资者也呼吁减持股票，以此作为下一波上涨的一种宣泄，并放松一些疯狂的、受零售驱动的赌博，这些赌博在 COVID-19 复苏期间一再将股市推向新纪录。</blockquote></p><p> A brief pullback that began in late January, tied to the trading fervor around GameStop Corp.&nbsp;and AMC Entertainment Holdings,saw markets test some short-term bullish trend lines, but recently the markets have managed to claw back to produce not-unspectacular returns in the early goings of a year chock-full of uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>1 月下旬开始的短暂回调，与游戏驿站公司和AMC院线控股公司的交易热情有关，市场测试了一些短期看涨趋势线，但最近市场设法回升，在年初产生了不容忽视的回报充满了不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;is up 2.5% so far in the year, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;is enjoying a more pronounced gain of over 4%, while the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;and Russell 2000&nbsp;indexes on Tuesday notched their 10th record closes in 2021 thus far.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数今年迄今已上涨 2.5%，标普500指数涨幅更为明显，超过 4%，而纳斯达克综合指数和罗素 2000 指数周二创下 2021 年迄今为止的第 10 个收盘纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The year-to-date gains in the large-cap Nasdaq, up 8.7%, and the Russell 2000, up 16.4%, reflect an odd convergence of investor bets: Those wagering on further prosperity in COVID-tested, large-capitalization growth stocks that worked in the aftermath of the pandemic in the U.S. back in March, alongside bets for a sizable rebound in small-cap, economically sensitive stocks represented in the Russell.</p><p><blockquote>大盘股纳斯达克今年迄今为止的涨幅为 8.7%，罗素 2000 指数上涨 16.4%，反映了投资者押注的奇怪趋同：那些押注经过 COVID 测试的大盘股进一步繁荣的人在 3 月份美国大流行后表现良好，同时押注罗素指数所代表的小盘股、经济敏感股票大幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> In either case, cautious investors and those worried that the good times can’t last forever are bracing for the next major slump for stocks, and ruminating on how it might play out.</p><p><blockquote>无论哪种情况，谨慎的投资者和那些担心好景不长的投资者都在为股市的下一次大暴跌做准备，并思考着它可能会如何发展。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson&nbsp;told CNBC during an interview&nbsp;that “It was brief, so if you blinked you missed it,” referring to the pullback in stocks in late January.</p><p><blockquote>本周早些时候，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）在接受 CNBC 采访时说：“时间很短，所以如果你眨眼，你就错过了”，他指的是 1 月底股市的回调。</blockquote></p><p> “That looks like that was it for now, and I mean, the markets are quite powerful at the moment, and they have been,” Wilson said.</p><p><blockquote>“威尔逊说：”目前看来就是这样，我的意思是，目前市场相当强劲，而且一直如此。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s tremendous liquidity, there’s a very good and very understandable story behind the scenes. Meaning, we’ve got a strong economic recovery that’s visible to everyone. The earnings season’s been good so far…and people have bought into it,” the Morgan Stanley analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>“这里有巨大的流动性，有一个非常好的、非常容易理解的幕后故事。也就是说，我们的经济复苏强劲，每个人都能看到。到目前为止，财报季表现不错.人们对此深信不疑，”摩根士丹利分析师说。</blockquote></p><p> He cautioned, however, that the market remains in a “a bit of a fragile state,” and warned that leverage swirling in the system could make pullbacks of 3% or 5% more of the norm.</p><p><blockquote>不过，他警告说，市场仍处于 “有点脆弱的状态”，并警告说，系统中的杠杆率可能会比正常水平高出 3% 或 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson did say, however, that the re-emergence of individual investors in financial markets would be a force to be reckoned with, and that they currently represent the marginal buyer on Wall Street keeping asset prices buoyant.</p><p><blockquote>然而，威尔逊确实表示，个人投资者在金融市场的重新出现将是一股不可忽视的力量，他们目前代表着华尔街保持资产价格浮动的边际买家。</blockquote></p><p> Keith&nbsp;Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, said that concerns of a stock bubble are overdone and not supported by the current batch of fourth-quarter earnings results, which his firm estimates will be the best since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>Truist Advisory Services 首席市场策略师基思·勒纳 (Keith Lerner) 表示，对股市泡沫的担忧被夸大了，并且没有得到当前一批第四季度盈利结果的支持，他的公司预计这将是自 2008 年金融危机以来最好的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/614ce86d6f888394bc0303ea4afc4f16\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"914\"><span>TRUIST ADVISORY SERVICES INC./SUNTRUST ADVISORY SERVICES INC.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>TRUIST咨询服务公司/SUNTRUST咨询服务公司。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> “Although there are frothy segments of the market that are detached from fundamentals, we do not see bubble conditions more broadly,” Lerner wrote in a research report dated Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>“勒纳在周二的一份研究报告中写道：”虽然市场上存在一些与基本面脱节的泡沫细分市场，但我们并没有看到更广泛的泡沫状况。</blockquote></p><p> “Instead, we see a stock market that is trading at a premium to historical valuations—partly justified by low rates, a shift in sector composition toward higher-valued growth sectors, supportive monetary and fiscal policy, as well as cheaper access to markets (i.e., secular decline in commissions and fund fees),” the Truist analysts added, noting that a lower barrier to entry for individual investors also was providing support for stock values.</p><p><blockquote>“Truist 分析师补充说：”相反，我们看到的股市交易价格高于历史估值--部分原因是低利率、行业构成向估值较高的成长型行业转变、支持性的货币和财政政策，以及更便宜的市场准入（即佣金和基金费用的长期下降）。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Daniel Pinto, a co-president at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.,told CNBC in a Q&amp;A&nbsp;that he expects the stock market to grind higher.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根大通联席总裁丹尼尔·平托在问答中告诉 CNBC，他预计股市将走高。</blockquote></p><p> “I think the market will gradually grind up during the year,” he told the news network. “I don’t see a correction anytime soon, unless the situation changes dramatically,” he said, describing possible downturns as mini corrections that won’t necessarily change the overall bullish trend.</p><p><blockquote>“他对新闻网说：”我认为市场将在今年逐渐磨合。他说：“除非形势发生巨大变化，否则我不认为会很快出现回调。”他将可能出现的低迷描述为小幅回调，不一定会改变整体看涨趋势。</blockquote></p><p> What could change things?</p><p><blockquote>什么能改变事情？</blockquote></p><p> Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, in a Tuesday report said that optimism in the U.S. market is driven by three actors: Support from monetary and fiscal policy, progress in COVID vaccinations and the solid quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>AvaTrade首席市场分析师Naeem Aslam在周二的一份报告中表示，美国市场的乐观情绪是由三个因素推动的：货币和财政政策的支持、新冠疫苗接种的进展以及稳健的季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> “Basically, it seems like the stars are getting in line, and there are strong odds stacked in favour of another bull rally,” Aslam wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“阿斯拉姆写道：”基本上，看起来明星们都在排队，牛市再次反弹的可能性很大。</blockquote></p><p> “In other words, we need something major changing in the current catalyst to shift the market narrative among traders that can trigger a minor pullback—let alone a serious correction,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“他补充说：”换句话说，我们需要对当前的催化剂进行一些重大改变，以改变交易者对市场的看法，从而引发小幅回调，更不用说严重的回调了。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> MarketWatch’s William Watts writes&nbsp;that some experts are pointing to the 2009 stock market as the closest parallel to the current setup for equities. Quoting Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, Watts noted that 2021 could play out more like the postcrisis scenario seen in 2010, which would point the way to a “solid year” for the market, but with a bumpy ride thanks to “multiple first-half corrections.”</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch 的威廉-瓦茨（William Watts）写道，一些专家指出，2009 年的股市与当前的股市结构最相似。瓦茨援引 Canaccord Genuity 首席市场策略师托尼-德怀尔（Tony Dwyer）的话说，2021 年可能会更像 2010 年的危机后情景，这将为市场指明一个 “稳健的一年”，但由于 “上半年的多次调整 ”，市场将经历一段坎坷的旅程。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the bumpiness might emanate from the bond market, with the 10-yearTMUBMUSD10Y,1.162%and 30-year TreasurysTMUBMUSD30Y,1.950%testing recent yield highs and putting some pressure on equities.</p><p><blockquote>部分低迷可能来自债券市场，10 年期 MUBMUSD10Y，1.162% 和 30 年期国债 STMUBMUSD30Y，1.950% 测试了近期的收益率高点，并给股市带来了一些压力。</blockquote></p><p> The so-called reflation trade, where yields rise and investors gravitate to investments that might prosper in better economic times, has provided a number of false dawns for investors so far.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的再通胀交易，即收益率上升，投资者被可能在经济形势好转时蓬勃发展的投资所吸引，迄今为止，这给投资者带来了许多虚假的曙光。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-stock-market-due-for-a-correction-in-2021-heres-what-some-experts-think-11612916422?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-stock-market-due-for-a-correction-in-2021-heres-what-some-experts-think-11612916422?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1169253231","content_text":"A pullback for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index on Tuesday halted the longest win streak for stocks in months, but a major concern for investors remains: Is there a major correction looming ahead?\nEven some bullish investors have called for a retrenchment in stocks as a sort of catharsis for the next leg higher and an unwind of some of the frenzied, retail-inspired betting that has repeatedly sent stocks to fresh records amid the COVID-19 recovery.\nA brief pullback that began in late January, tied to the trading fervor around GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings,saw markets test some short-term bullish trend lines, but recently the markets have managed to claw back to produce not-unspectacular returns in the early goings of a year chock-full of uncertainties.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2.5% so far in the year, the S&P 500 is enjoying a more pronounced gain of over 4%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 indexes on Tuesday notched their 10th record closes in 2021 thus far.\nThe year-to-date gains in the large-cap Nasdaq, up 8.7%, and the Russell 2000, up 16.4%, reflect an odd convergence of investor bets: Those wagering on further prosperity in COVID-tested, large-capitalization growth stocks that worked in the aftermath of the pandemic in the U.S. back in March, alongside bets for a sizable rebound in small-cap, economically sensitive stocks represented in the Russell.\nIn either case, cautious investors and those worried that the good times can’t last forever are bracing for the next major slump for stocks, and ruminating on how it might play out.\nEarlier this week, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson told CNBC during an interview that “It was brief, so if you blinked you missed it,” referring to the pullback in stocks in late January.\n“That looks like that was it for now, and I mean, the markets are quite powerful at the moment, and they have been,” Wilson said.\n“There’s tremendous liquidity, there’s a very good and very understandable story behind the scenes. Meaning, we’ve got a strong economic recovery that’s visible to everyone. The earnings season’s been good so far…and people have bought into it,” the Morgan Stanley analyst said.\nHe cautioned, however, that the market remains in a “a bit of a fragile state,” and warned that leverage swirling in the system could make pullbacks of 3% or 5% more of the norm.\nWilson did say, however, that the re-emergence of individual investors in financial markets would be a force to be reckoned with, and that they currently represent the marginal buyer on Wall Street keeping asset prices buoyant.\nKeith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, said that concerns of a stock bubble are overdone and not supported by the current batch of fourth-quarter earnings results, which his firm estimates will be the best since the 2008 financial crisis.\nTRUIST ADVISORY SERVICES INC./SUNTRUST ADVISORY SERVICES INC.\n“Although there are frothy segments of the market that are detached from fundamentals, we do not see bubble conditions more broadly,” Lerner wrote in a research report dated Tuesday.\n“Instead, we see a stock market that is trading at a premium to historical valuations—partly justified by low rates, a shift in sector composition toward higher-valued growth sectors, supportive monetary and fiscal policy, as well as cheaper access to markets (i.e., secular decline in commissions and fund fees),” the Truist analysts added, noting that a lower barrier to entry for individual investors also was providing support for stock values.\nMeanwhile, Daniel Pinto, a co-president at JPMorgan Chase & Co.,told CNBC in a Q&A that he expects the stock market to grind higher.\n“I think the market will gradually grind up during the year,” he told the news network. “I don’t see a correction anytime soon, unless the situation changes dramatically,” he said, describing possible downturns as mini corrections that won’t necessarily change the overall bullish trend.\nWhat could change things?\nNaeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, in a Tuesday report said that optimism in the U.S. market is driven by three actors: Support from monetary and fiscal policy, progress in COVID vaccinations and the solid quarterly results.\n“Basically, it seems like the stars are getting in line, and there are strong odds stacked in favour of another bull rally,” Aslam wrote.\n“In other words, we need something major changing in the current catalyst to shift the market narrative among traders that can trigger a minor pullback—let alone a serious correction,” he added.\nMarketWatch’s William Watts writes that some experts are pointing to the 2009 stock market as the closest parallel to the current setup for equities. Quoting Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, Watts noted that 2021 could play out more like the postcrisis scenario seen in 2010, which would point the way to a “solid year” for the market, but with a bumpy ride thanks to “multiple first-half corrections.”\nSome of the bumpiness might emanate from the bond market, with the 10-yearTMUBMUSD10Y,1.162%and 30-year TreasurysTMUBMUSD30Y,1.950%testing recent yield highs and putting some pressure on equities.\nThe so-called reflation trade, where yields rise and investors gravitate to investments that might prosper in better economic times, has provided a number of false dawns for investors so far.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}