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重庆老赵
重庆老赵
·
01-26
老马 会平庸？
特斯拉的最大风险：归于平庸
一家车企能坐拥1.5万亿美元市值，特斯拉的地位可谓无人能及。但特斯拉面临的更隐蔽挑战，或许并非来自某个对手，而是一种更难启齿的状态：平庸感。 核心电动汽车业务的颓势是特斯拉光环褪色最直观的体现。特斯拉电动汽车销量已连续两年下滑。 特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克近日在社交平台X上发文，释放了又一个隐晦的信号：特斯拉将于2月14日后停止出售FSD，此后仅提供按月订阅服务。
特斯拉的最大风险：归于平庸
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重庆老赵
重庆老赵
·
01-21
$携程网(TCOM)$
反内卷运动中的那只鸡 不看好
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重庆老赵
重庆老赵
·
01-15
20年21年 接受处罚后的阿里和美团 现在价位回到当初了吗？
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重庆老赵
重庆老赵
·
01-14
$携程网(TCOM)$
对照之前被立案处罚了的阿里和美团 至今还在低位运行
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重庆老赵
重庆老赵
·
01-14
看看20年后的阿里 21年后的美团 、谁还认为这是个机会？
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重庆老赵
重庆老赵
·
01-14
$携程网(TCOM)$
已清仓，携程这次算是反内卷里竖立的反面教材吧、对照当年的阿里和美团 股价至今还没回到当初、还是暂时避开为佳 只是好奇 为何官方公布立案消息时间为什么是港股收盘后的16:00？是为了掩护某些同志先撤退？ 另外 论到垄断和算法收割 滴滴不是更应该被拉出来打靶么？为何选择了携程？是因为背后的力量不够强大吗？[开心]
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重庆老赵
重庆老赵
·
01-08
辅助驾驶不是无人驾驶[笑哭] 在特斯拉机器人上市前是特斯拉各种利空密集突发阶段
特斯拉辅助驾驶连续避让后追尾 车主：刹车没反应 车门和窗户打不开
但该车道同样有一辆大货车，特斯拉又变到了最右侧的导流线上，结果在前方导流线收窄的地方，车辆刹车不及追尾了前方的大货车，并被挤到了栏杆上。特斯拉车内气囊全部弹出，车门也被挤住打不开，车内甚至已经开始冒烟了，他们两人被困在车内，非常恐怖。此次事故特斯拉负全责，因为车辆没买车损险，车损非常严重，已经报废了。
特斯拉辅助驾驶连续避让后追尾 车主：刹车没反应 车门和窗户打不开
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重庆老赵
重庆老赵
·
01-07
只谈忧患 这是唱空么？
特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业
综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。
特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业
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重庆老赵
重庆老赵
·
01-06
安卓再自由 也不影响苹果成为顶流
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重庆老赵
重庆老赵
·
01-06
安卓再自由 也不妨碍苹果成为顶流
英伟达做了个FSD？马斯克淡定回应：我不会为此失眠
英伟达CES发布开源自动驾驶模型Alpamayo，号称“物理AI的ChatGPT时刻”，将随奔驰CLA一季度上路。面对这一能“思考推理”的强劲对手，马斯克回应称解决长尾问题才是关键，并直言：“我才不会因为这个失眠，真心希望他们能成功。”
英伟达做了个FSD？马斯克淡定回应：我不会为此失眠
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核心电动汽车业务的颓势是特斯拉光环褪色最直观的体现。特斯拉电动汽车销量已连续两年下滑。2025年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>在纯电动汽车销量上完成反超。行业分析机构考克斯汽车（Cox Automotive）的最新数据显示，即便特斯拉推出了简配版Model 3和Model Y车型，试图在电动车税收抵免退坡后重振需求，但2025年第四季度在美国市场的销量仍下滑15%。</p>\n<p> 特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克近日在社交平台X上发文，释放了又一个隐晦的信号：特斯拉将于2月14日后停止出售FSD，此后仅提供按月订阅服务。</p>\n<p> FSD即完全自动驾驶（监管版），本质上仍是一套高级驾驶辅助系统，并不具备完全自主驾驶能力。多年来，它一直以选装升级的形式出售，目前一次性购买价格为8000美元。自2021年起，特斯拉推出订阅方案，当前月费为99美元。</p>\n<p> 特斯拉的一举一动总能引发热议，这次也不例外，究其根源还是马斯克过往的种种豪言。2020年，他曾放话称，随着软件持续迭代优化，这套当时还未标注“监管版”的FSD选装包，价值将水涨船高，最终有望突破10万美元大关。然而，现实世界中的科技产品，尤其是依赖芯片、被装进四个轮子里的技术，价值几乎总是沿着相反方向演进，而且往往速度不慢。理论上，更好的软件或许能改变这一轨迹，但特斯拉自身的行动显然并未印证这一点。</p>\n<p> FSD的定价并非一成不变：2019年时售价一度低至5000美元，随后几经上调，最高涨到1.5万美元。订阅模式推出后，价格一路回落至如今水平。如今，特斯拉索性取消了买断选项，尽管这一方式相当于提前锁定近十年的订阅收入。</p>\n<p> 这并不像一项会不断升值的资产，更像一项普通服务：价格随技术能力、竞争格局与市场环境而浮动。</p>\n<p> 这一转向的背景，是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>在拉斯维加斯消费电子展上掀起的涟漪。这家芯片巨头推出了开源人工智能模型Alpamayo，用于开发自动驾驶汽车，并将其与英伟达现有的软硬件工具整合，为车企提供一套“即装即用”的高级驾驶辅助系统解决方案，未来甚至有望拓展至完全自动驾驶。</p>\n<p> 马斯克回应称，英伟达不过是在复制特斯拉的路线。从某种程度上来说，确实如此。英伟达采用的机器学习自动驾驶方案与特斯拉思路相近，同样需要花费漫长时间，在真实道路环境中反复验证。</p>\n<p> 但更深层的问题在于，一家并不打算造车的科技公司，正试图打造自动驾驶领域的“安卓系统”，向所有愿意付费的车企开放。这为传统车企提供了一条低资本投入的捷径，却也意味着，一个持续增长的车辆价值来源将不可避免地外溢给一家市值已超过全球汽车产业总和的供应商。对底特律而言，这是一把双刃剑，尤其是在其价值体系仍高度依赖内燃机的背景下。</p>\n<p> 对特斯拉而言，情况可能更糟。随着电动车业务明显受挫，支撑其估值的，越来越多来自市场对其在自动驾驶领域建立统治地位的预期。特斯拉的股票，本质上是一种叙事。正如自动驾驶专家、风投机构New Industry Management联合创始人亚历克斯·罗伊（Alex Roy）所言，特斯拉拥有强大的“叙事主导权”。马斯克塑造公众对汽车科技认知的能力之强，甚至延伸到对相关术语本身的定义，以至于不断逼近的竞争，也未能撼动特斯拉200倍以上的市盈率。</p>\n<p> 但竞争往往伴随着另一种更隐秘的力量：大宗商品化。近一年前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>已在中国市场将高级驾驶辅助系统列为多数车型的标配；如今英伟达的入局，又为汽车功能“从高价噱头沦为标配”的老路添上了新注脚。别忘了，作为FSD前身的Autopilot，曾经也是售价数千美元的选装项，如今早已成为标配。在经历多轮降价后，FSD转而完全采用可随时取消的订阅模式，本身就是一种信号。</p>\n<p> 如果特斯拉的技术优势无可匹敌，这种变化或许不足为惧。但正如我此前所写，特斯拉对其所谓“定义行业、引领全球”的核心技术，一直披露有限，令人费解。</p>\n<p> 更何况，距离特斯拉在奥斯汀推出FSD自动驾驶出租车一周年的节点仅剩五个月。必须坦率地说，与马斯克此前的承诺相比，那次“上线”近乎滑稽，而公司最近又一次错过了移除前排安全驾驶员的时间节点。</p>\n<p> 如果这种不温不火的节奏持续到2026年6月，那些长期看多特斯拉的投资者，是否会开始对“特斯拉真正引领自动驾驶”的叙事产生动摇？罗伊指出，只要不发生灾难性事故，特斯拉仍有空间展示进展、维系叙事，比如在保留安全员的情况下，将服务扩展至更多城市。考虑到特斯拉近乎宗教般的号召力，这或许已足以托住股价。马斯克当然也可以进一步加码“机器人叙事”，只是那条赛道上，同样已不乏竞争者。</p>\n<p> 但除了信徒之外，外界已然看清：特斯拉在无人驾驶领域许下的种种承诺，与其实际进展相去甚远；与此同时，市场竞争日益激烈，行业“常态化”的苗头也已显现。既然特斯拉已在电动车领域失去无可争议的领导地位和定价权，又凭什么假定，它能在新领域免疫于同样的规律？</p>\n<p> 企业可以在某个（任何）领域大获成功，但当竞争加剧、光环褪色时，它仍可能辜负市场的炽热期望。评估特斯拉的自动驾驶业务时，决定性的不只是市场份额假设，也在于价格与定价能力。在如此高估值的状态下，最大的风险或许并非轰然坠落，而是缓慢而熟悉地，滑向平庸。</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：刘明亮 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉的最大风险：归于平庸</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉的最大风险：归于平庸\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-26 19:37 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-26/doc-inhirukv8967185.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一家车企能坐拥1.5万亿美元市值，特斯拉的地位可谓无人能及。无论是负面消息，还是此起彼伏的竞争警报，似乎都难以真正撼动其股价。但特斯拉面临的更隐蔽挑战，或许并非来自某个对手，而是一种更难启齿的状态：平庸感。\n 核心电动汽车业务的颓势是特斯拉光环褪色最直观的体现。特斯拉电动汽车销量已连续两年下滑。2025年，比亚迪在纯电动汽车销量上完成反超。行业分析机构考克斯汽车（Cox Automotive）的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-26/doc-inhirukv8967185.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4612":"AI芯片","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US 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ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","CRSH":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-26/doc-inhirukv8967185.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2606212832","content_text":"一家车企能坐拥1.5万亿美元市值，特斯拉的地位可谓无人能及。无论是负面消息，还是此起彼伏的竞争警报，似乎都难以真正撼动其股价。但特斯拉面临的更隐蔽挑战，或许并非来自某个对手，而是一种更难启齿的状态：平庸感。\n 核心电动汽车业务的颓势是特斯拉光环褪色最直观的体现。特斯拉电动汽车销量已连续两年下滑。2025年，比亚迪在纯电动汽车销量上完成反超。行业分析机构考克斯汽车（Cox Automotive）的最新数据显示，即便特斯拉推出了简配版Model 3和Model Y车型，试图在电动车税收抵免退坡后重振需求，但2025年第四季度在美国市场的销量仍下滑15%。\n 特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克近日在社交平台X上发文，释放了又一个隐晦的信号：特斯拉将于2月14日后停止出售FSD，此后仅提供按月订阅服务。\n FSD即完全自动驾驶（监管版），本质上仍是一套高级驾驶辅助系统，并不具备完全自主驾驶能力。多年来，它一直以选装升级的形式出售，目前一次性购买价格为8000美元。自2021年起，特斯拉推出订阅方案，当前月费为99美元。\n 特斯拉的一举一动总能引发热议，这次也不例外，究其根源还是马斯克过往的种种豪言。2020年，他曾放话称，随着软件持续迭代优化，这套当时还未标注“监管版”的FSD选装包，价值将水涨船高，最终有望突破10万美元大关。然而，现实世界中的科技产品，尤其是依赖芯片、被装进四个轮子里的技术，价值几乎总是沿着相反方向演进，而且往往速度不慢。理论上，更好的软件或许能改变这一轨迹，但特斯拉自身的行动显然并未印证这一点。\n FSD的定价并非一成不变：2019年时售价一度低至5000美元，随后几经上调，最高涨到1.5万美元。订阅模式推出后，价格一路回落至如今水平。如今，特斯拉索性取消了买断选项，尽管这一方式相当于提前锁定近十年的订阅收入。\n 这并不像一项会不断升值的资产，更像一项普通服务：价格随技术能力、竞争格局与市场环境而浮动。\n 这一转向的背景，是英伟达在拉斯维加斯消费电子展上掀起的涟漪。这家芯片巨头推出了开源人工智能模型Alpamayo，用于开发自动驾驶汽车，并将其与英伟达现有的软硬件工具整合，为车企提供一套“即装即用”的高级驾驶辅助系统解决方案，未来甚至有望拓展至完全自动驾驶。\n 马斯克回应称，英伟达不过是在复制特斯拉的路线。从某种程度上来说，确实如此。英伟达采用的机器学习自动驾驶方案与特斯拉思路相近，同样需要花费漫长时间，在真实道路环境中反复验证。\n 但更深层的问题在于，一家并不打算造车的科技公司，正试图打造自动驾驶领域的“安卓系统”，向所有愿意付费的车企开放。这为传统车企提供了一条低资本投入的捷径，却也意味着，一个持续增长的车辆价值来源将不可避免地外溢给一家市值已超过全球汽车产业总和的供应商。对底特律而言，这是一把双刃剑，尤其是在其价值体系仍高度依赖内燃机的背景下。\n 对特斯拉而言，情况可能更糟。随着电动车业务明显受挫，支撑其估值的，越来越多来自市场对其在自动驾驶领域建立统治地位的预期。特斯拉的股票，本质上是一种叙事。正如自动驾驶专家、风投机构New Industry Management联合创始人亚历克斯·罗伊（Alex Roy）所言，特斯拉拥有强大的“叙事主导权”。马斯克塑造公众对汽车科技认知的能力之强，甚至延伸到对相关术语本身的定义，以至于不断逼近的竞争，也未能撼动特斯拉200倍以上的市盈率。\n 但竞争往往伴随着另一种更隐秘的力量：大宗商品化。近一年前，比亚迪已在中国市场将高级驾驶辅助系统列为多数车型的标配；如今英伟达的入局，又为汽车功能“从高价噱头沦为标配”的老路添上了新注脚。别忘了，作为FSD前身的Autopilot，曾经也是售价数千美元的选装项，如今早已成为标配。在经历多轮降价后，FSD转而完全采用可随时取消的订阅模式，本身就是一种信号。\n 如果特斯拉的技术优势无可匹敌，这种变化或许不足为惧。但正如我此前所写，特斯拉对其所谓“定义行业、引领全球”的核心技术，一直披露有限，令人费解。\n 更何况，距离特斯拉在奥斯汀推出FSD自动驾驶出租车一周年的节点仅剩五个月。必须坦率地说，与马斯克此前的承诺相比，那次“上线”近乎滑稽，而公司最近又一次错过了移除前排安全驾驶员的时间节点。\n 如果这种不温不火的节奏持续到2026年6月，那些长期看多特斯拉的投资者，是否会开始对“特斯拉真正引领自动驾驶”的叙事产生动摇？罗伊指出，只要不发生灾难性事故，特斯拉仍有空间展示进展、维系叙事，比如在保留安全员的情况下，将服务扩展至更多城市。考虑到特斯拉近乎宗教般的号召力，这或许已足以托住股价。马斯克当然也可以进一步加码“机器人叙事”，只是那条赛道上，同样已不乏竞争者。\n 但除了信徒之外，外界已然看清：特斯拉在无人驾驶领域许下的种种承诺，与其实际进展相去甚远；与此同时，市场竞争日益激烈，行业“常态化”的苗头也已显现。既然特斯拉已在电动车领域失去无可争议的领导地位和定价权，又凭什么假定，它能在新领域免疫于同样的规律？\n 企业可以在某个（任何）领域大获成功，但当竞争加剧、光环褪色时，它仍可能辜负市场的炽热期望。评估特斯拉的自动驾驶业务时，决定性的不只是市场份额假设，也在于价格与定价能力。在如此高估值的状态下，最大的风险或许并非轰然坠落，而是缓慢而熟悉地，滑向平庸。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：刘明亮","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLG":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLA":1.96,"TSLY":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"CRSH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":524203183620296,"gmtCreate":1769005883978,"gmtModify":1769005886317,"author":{"id":"3550884934656926","authorId":"3550884934656926","name":"重庆老赵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b717addd899a8536a2ef46813ee6e613","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550884934656926","idStr":"3550884934656926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 反内卷运动中的那只鸡 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现在价位回到当初了吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/522211224191224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3501110471229028","authorId":"3501110471229028","name":"赚钱去火星","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b086a214bbd5d0efb72fd2f72b054b57","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3501110471229028","idStr":"3501110471229028"},"content":"但是拼多多当年确实是机会。 [贱笑]","text":"但是拼多多当年确实是机会。 [贱笑]","html":"但是拼多多当年确实是机会。 [贱笑]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":521689401184816,"gmtCreate":1768401617161,"gmtModify":1768405089055,"author":{"id":"3550884934656926","authorId":"3550884934656926","name":"重庆老赵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b717addd899a8536a2ef46813ee6e613","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550884934656926","idStr":"3550884934656926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 对照之前被立案处罚了的阿里和美团 至今还在低位运行","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 对照之前被立案处罚了的阿里和美团 至今还在低位运行","text":"$携程网(TCOM)$ 对照之前被立案处罚了的阿里和美团 至今还在低位运行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521689401184816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":521670960149840,"gmtCreate":1768397044214,"gmtModify":1768397048487,"author":{"id":"3550884934656926","authorId":"3550884934656926","name":"重庆老赵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b717addd899a8536a2ef46813ee6e613","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550884934656926","idStr":"3550884934656926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"看看20年后的阿里 21年后的美团 、谁还认为这是个机会？","listText":"看看20年后的阿里 21年后的美团 、谁还认为这是个机会？","text":"看看20年后的阿里 21年后的美团 、谁还认为这是个机会？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521670960149840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274803156147","authorId":"3479274803156147","name":"0billionaire","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture159","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3479274803156147","idStr":"3479274803156147"},"content":"机会还在，耐心等回调！","text":"机会还在，耐心等回调！","html":"机会还在，耐心等回调！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":521652096357424,"gmtCreate":1768392435432,"gmtModify":1768394892071,"author":{"id":"3550884934656926","authorId":"3550884934656926","name":"重庆老赵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b717addd899a8536a2ef46813ee6e613","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550884934656926","idStr":"3550884934656926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$ </a> 已清仓，携程这次算是反内卷里竖立的反面教材吧、对照当年的阿里和美团 股价至今还没回到当初、还是暂时避开为佳 只是好奇 为何官方公布立案消息时间为什么是港股收盘后的16:00？是为了掩护某些同志先撤退？ 另外 论到垄断和算法收割 滴滴不是更应该被拉出来打靶么？为何选择了携程？是因为背后的力量不够强大吗？[开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$ </a> 已清仓，携程这次算是反内卷里竖立的反面教材吧、对照当年的阿里和美团 股价至今还没回到当初、还是暂时避开为佳 只是好奇 为何官方公布立案消息时间为什么是港股收盘后的16:00？是为了掩护某些同志先撤退？ 另外 论到垄断和算法收割 滴滴不是更应该被拉出来打靶么？为何选择了携程？是因为背后的力量不够强大吗？[开心] ","text":"$携程网(TCOM)$ 已清仓，携程这次算是反内卷里竖立的反面教材吧、对照当年的阿里和美团 股价至今还没回到当初、还是暂时避开为佳 只是好奇 为何官方公布立案消息时间为什么是港股收盘后的16:00？是为了掩护某些同志先撤退？ 另外 论到垄断和算法收割 滴滴不是更应该被拉出来打靶么？为何选择了携程？是因为背后的力量不够强大吗？[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521652096357424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":519596425883832,"gmtCreate":1767875847435,"gmtModify":1767875850291,"author":{"id":"3550884934656926","authorId":"3550884934656926","name":"重庆老赵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b717addd899a8536a2ef46813ee6e613","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550884934656926","idStr":"3550884934656926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"辅助驾驶不是无人驾驶[笑哭] 在特斯拉机器人上市前是特斯拉各种利空密集突发阶段","listText":"辅助驾驶不是无人驾驶[笑哭] 在特斯拉机器人上市前是特斯拉各种利空密集突发阶段","text":"辅助驾驶不是无人驾驶[笑哭] 在特斯拉机器人上市前是特斯拉各种利空密集突发阶段","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519596425883832","repostId":"2601369690","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2601369690","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767873971,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601369690?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-08 20:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉辅助驾驶连续避让后追尾 车主：刹车没反应 车门和窗户打不开","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601369690","media":"快科技","summary":"但该车道同样有一辆大货车，特斯拉又变到了最右侧的导流线上，结果在前方导流线收窄的地方，车辆刹车不及追尾了前方的大货车，并被挤到了栏杆上。特斯拉车内气囊全部弹出，车门也被挤住打不开，车内甚至已经开始冒烟了，他们两人被困在车内，非常恐怖。此次事故特斯拉负全责，因为车辆没买车损险，车损非常严重，已经报废了。","content":"<html><body><article><p>快科技1月8日消息，据报道，近日，安徽岳西高速上，一辆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>发生追尾事故，车主对车辆的辅助驾驶系统也产生了质疑。</p><p>行车记录仪<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIDE\">视频显示</a>，这辆特斯拉本来在最左侧的超车道行驶，前方大客车突然变道，特斯拉刹车不及，紧急变道至右侧车道。</p><p>但该车道同样有一辆大货车，特斯拉又变到了最右侧的导流线上，<strong>结果在前方导流线收窄的地方，车辆刹车不及追尾了前方的大货车，并被挤到了栏杆上。</strong></p><p>车主介绍，当时他开了辅助驾驶系统，他看到要追尾第一反应是踩刹车，但系统却让他避让，踩刹车没有反应，导致最后追尾，并被大货车挤着拖行了几十米。</p><p>特斯拉车内气囊全部弹出，车门也被挤住打不开，车内甚至已经开始冒烟了，他们两人被困在车内，非常恐怖。</p><p>最后，是大货车司机砸碎了车玻璃，他们才逃了出来。此次事故特斯拉负全责，<strong>因为车辆没买车损险，车损非常严重，已经报废了。</strong></p><p>车主表示，如果当时是他在开车，发生这样的事故他愿意承担事故责任。但现在的情况时，车辆是由辅助驾驶来开的，车辆失控才造成事故。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260108201322229d163i88xupy3xmm\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉辅助驾驶连续避让后追尾 车主：刹车没反应 车门和窗户打不开</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉辅助驾驶连续避让后追尾 车主：刹车没反应 车门和窗户打不开\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-08 20:06 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260108201331a70304a5&s=b><strong>快科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>快科技1月8日消息，据报道，近日，安徽岳西高速上，一辆特斯拉发生追尾事故，车主对车辆的辅助驾驶系统也产生了质疑。行车记录仪视频显示，这辆特斯拉本来在最左侧的超车道行驶，前方大客车突然变道，特斯拉刹车不及，紧急变道至右侧车道。但该车道同样有一辆大货车，特斯拉又变到了最右侧的导流线上，结果在前方导流线收窄的地方，车辆刹车不及追尾了前方的大货车，并被挤到了栏杆上。车主介绍，当时他开了辅助驾驶系统，他看到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260108201331a70304a5&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION 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INC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260108201331a70304a5&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2601369690","content_text":"快科技1月8日消息，据报道，近日，安徽岳西高速上，一辆特斯拉发生追尾事故，车主对车辆的辅助驾驶系统也产生了质疑。行车记录仪视频显示，这辆特斯拉本来在最左侧的超车道行驶，前方大客车突然变道，特斯拉刹车不及，紧急变道至右侧车道。但该车道同样有一辆大货车，特斯拉又变到了最右侧的导流线上，结果在前方导流线收窄的地方，车辆刹车不及追尾了前方的大货车，并被挤到了栏杆上。车主介绍，当时他开了辅助驾驶系统，他看到要追尾第一反应是踩刹车，但系统却让他避让，踩刹车没有反应，导致最后追尾，并被大货车挤着拖行了几十米。特斯拉车内气囊全部弹出，车门也被挤住打不开，车内甚至已经开始冒烟了，他们两人被困在车内，非常恐怖。最后，是大货车司机砸碎了车玻璃，他们才逃了出来。此次事故特斯拉负全责，因为车辆没买车损险，车损非常严重，已经报废了。车主表示，如果当时是他在开车，发生这样的事故他愿意承担事故责任。但现在的情况时，车辆是由辅助驾驶来开的，车辆失控才造成事故。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.97}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":519424845365664,"gmtCreate":1767787809349,"gmtModify":1767787811900,"author":{"id":"3550884934656926","authorId":"3550884934656926","name":"重庆老赵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b717addd899a8536a2ef46813ee6e613","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550884934656926","idStr":"3550884934656926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"只谈忧患 这是唱空么？","listText":"只谈忧患 这是唱空么？","text":"只谈忧患 这是唱空么？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519424845365664","repostId":"2601877535","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2601877535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767784565,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601877535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-07 19:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601877535","media":"美股研究社","summary":"综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险</strong></p><p>我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶（FSD）、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单，这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益，依旧停留在投机阶段。</p><p>即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功，也必须正视一个现实：这些领域的竞争都异常激烈，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在切入这些赛道时，已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议，导致品牌声誉受损，暴露出显著的<strong>核心人物风险</strong>。近年来，市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确，终将反噬企业经营” 的说法，而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者，进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言，无疑是一剂毒药。</p><img src=\"\"/><p>【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcrVAEs2bhwIEUP4FfvianI8UkwWsmGS8QGt9FUCfIVia1npfInK1SOWWQ/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>储能业务：</strong></p><p><strong>装机量增长放缓，单位营收持续下滑</strong></p><p>接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中，储能装机量（GWh）是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度，公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高；全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时，展现出强劲的扩张态势。</p><p>但光鲜数据的背后，是<strong>同比增速的快速滑落</strong>：2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%，远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测，到 2029 年，这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%，对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。</p><p>与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的，是<strong>单位装机量营收的持续走低</strong>。2020 至 2021 年，特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收；而到了 2025 年第二季度，这一数值已腰斩过半，降至 2.89 亿美元；第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是，过去五个季度里，储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。</p><p>综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLczbSMU66CbrBjDq7jpr5zsiclLE4DkRGuL9TVwK0r2tbvibNaKK4AzxHw/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>汽车业务：</strong></p><p><strong>交付量下滑叠加售价走低，内外承压</strong></p><p>无论市场如何炒作新概念，汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出，2025 年第四季度，特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%；全年交付量同比下降 9%，创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现，同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。</p><p>此外，根据分析师的测算，截至 2025 年第三季度，特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月（TTM）平均售价已<span>跌破</span> 4 万美元。</p><p>市场预测，到 2029 年，特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆，较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性，分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟，特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测，其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%，与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。</p><p>从区域市场的表现中，我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月，中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍，而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。</p><p>放眼全球市场，2025 年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场，马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触：2025 年 12 月，特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断，特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%，市场份额持续萎缩。</p><p>雪上加霜的是，受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响，2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLciaWMQ0QPFPFmoNQtcVWichXhCuZB2x0BS879mNfIl6Lz8r5HIRlqLj6w/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>估值泡沫：</strong></p><p><strong>人形机器人预期已被过度透支</strong></p><p>我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年，特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台，单价或达 2.25 万美元，对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。</p><p>但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出，这部分潜在营收早已被<strong>完全计入当前估值</strong>。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中，最乐观的预测认为，公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见，市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。</p><p>即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准，特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中，分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值，结论早已不言而喻：其估值水平早已脱离基本面，荒谬至极。而时至今日，这一结论依然成立。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKLTlW17KYicXbduwZsUSFEKA3QhDoZBDRLD4pI17USiafzA7ib7ZgicBniaIKocAFvdFCDFy7DSsRicKibw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg\"/><p>数据来源：营收预期（Seeking Alpha）</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdJ3W4gruZ6lz6pj1cuQvXYHzFTgv6zBDxN3hjm1PtXPLNKCakI3eyW9mPqibvjCvXwDia0vaM9Nht8w/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>结语</strong></p><p>在竞争白热化的新能源汽车市场，特斯拉正面临交付量下滑与售价走低的双重压力；储能业务虽有增长，但增速放缓、单位营收下滑的隐忧日益凸显。人形机器人等新兴业务的潜在收益，早已被市场透支殆尽，当前估值完全建立在充满不确定性的预期之上。</p><p>更致命的是，创始人的政治立场引发的品牌声誉危机，以及由此带来的核心人物风险，正在持续损害公司的用户基础与市场竞争力。</p><p>综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。对投资者而言，现在正是最后的离场时机。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdJlQNwm5fnHWnfblqB1P5B3gLTjg6j6dT5IyOFclcldYqPQickKMUqicdaXvibXdEb4OibV97CAwGO6TQ/640?wx_fmt=other&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=5\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKnkt8t5QpwjNQOKyGlZz4SFiacicdM3aP4hZVCfGia7HbIYBoDxz2gubPAgoXDXhfrcLIfT2eG92icfw/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=6\"/><img 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-07 19:16 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶（FSD）、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单，这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益，依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功，也必须正视一个现实：这些领域的竞争都异常激烈，而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时，已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议，导致品牌声誉受损，暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来，市场上一直...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2601877535","content_text":"用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶（FSD）、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单，这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益，依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功，也必须正视一个现实：这些领域的竞争都异常激烈，而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时，已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议，导致品牌声誉受损，暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来，市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确，终将反噬企业经营” 的说法，而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者，进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言，无疑是一剂毒药。【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】储能业务：装机量增长放缓，单位营收持续下滑接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中，储能装机量（GWh）是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度，公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高；全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时，展现出强劲的扩张态势。但光鲜数据的背后，是同比增速的快速滑落：2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%，远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测，到 2029 年，这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%，对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的，是单位装机量营收的持续走低。2020 至 2021 年，特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收；而到了 2025 年第二季度，这一数值已腰斩过半，降至 2.89 亿美元；第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是，过去五个季度里，储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。汽车业务：交付量下滑叠加售价走低，内外承压无论市场如何炒作新概念，汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出，2025 年第四季度，特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%；全年交付量同比下降 9%，创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现，同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。此外，根据分析师的测算，截至 2025 年第三季度，特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月（TTM）平均售价已跌破 4 万美元。市场预测，到 2029 年，特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆，较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性，分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟，特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测，其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%，与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。从区域市场的表现中，我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月，中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%，小米等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍，而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。放眼全球市场，2025 年比亚迪的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场，马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触：2025 年 12 月，特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断，特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%，市场份额持续萎缩。雪上加霜的是，受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响，2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。估值泡沫：人形机器人预期已被过度透支我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年，特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台，单价或达 2.25 万美元，对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出，这部分潜在营收早已被完全计入当前估值。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中，最乐观的预测认为，公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见，市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准，特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中，分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值，结论早已不言而喻：其估值水平早已脱离基本面，荒谬至极。而时至今日，这一结论依然成立。数据来源：营收预期（Seeking Alpha）结语在竞争白热化的新能源汽车市场，特斯拉正面临交付量下滑与售价走低的双重压力；储能业务虽有增长，但增速放缓、单位营收下滑的隐忧日益凸显。人形机器人等新兴业务的潜在收益，早已被市场透支殆尽，当前估值完全建立在充满不确定性的预期之上。更致命的是，创始人的政治立场引发的品牌声誉危机，以及由此带来的核心人物风险，正在持续损害公司的用户基础与市场竞争力。综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。对投资者而言，现在正是最后的离场时机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":518891611710264,"gmtCreate":1767711732407,"gmtModify":1767711734666,"author":{"id":"3550884934656926","authorId":"3550884934656926","name":"重庆老赵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b717addd899a8536a2ef46813ee6e613","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550884934656926","idStr":"3550884934656926"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"安卓再自由 也不影响苹果成为顶流","listText":"安卓再自由 也不影响苹果成为顶流","text":"安卓再自由 也不影响苹果成为顶流","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/518891611710264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":519106789101904,"gmtCreate":1767709220520,"gmtModify":1767709222828,"author":{"id":"3550884934656926","authorId":"3550884934656926","name":"重庆老赵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b717addd899a8536a2ef46813ee6e613","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550884934656926","idStr":"3550884934656926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"安卓再自由 也不妨碍苹果成为顶流","listText":"安卓再自由 也不妨碍苹果成为顶流","text":"安卓再自由 也不妨碍苹果成为顶流","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519106789101904","repostId":"2601640188","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2601640188","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1767685847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601640188?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-06 15:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"英伟达做了个FSD？马斯克淡定回应：我不会为此失眠","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601640188","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"英伟达CES发布开源自动驾驶模型Alpamayo，号称“物理AI的ChatGPT时刻”，将随奔驰CLA一季度上路。面对这一能“思考推理”的强劲对手，马斯克回应称解决长尾问题才是关键，并直言：“我才不会因为这个失眠，真心希望他们能成功。”","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>在CES 2026展会上推出名为Alpamayo的开源自动驾驶AI模型，<strong>CEO黄仁勋称其为"世界上首款能思考、能推理的自动驾驶汽车AI"</strong>，直接挑战<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的FSD系统。</p><p>1月6日，电动汽车分析师Sawyer Merritt在X平台发帖称，英伟达宣布将于今年晚些时候在美国道路上推出Alpamayo。马斯克对此回应称："好吧，这正是特斯拉在做的。他们会发现，达到99%很容易，但要解决分布的长尾问题却非常困难。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/da5cba922f60a5ba6c23a4c0edbcd586\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1219\"/></p><p>当有网友表示担心Alpamayo成为FSD的首个真正竞争对手，并指出英伟达可以在没有任何车队的情况下达到接近99%的水平，证明大规模车队数据已不再重要时，马斯克再次回应："我才不会因为这个失眠呢。我真心希望他们能成功。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/962b7db4bee1027917e211e73b58ad87\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1013\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3075483512\">英伟达的"推理式"自动驾驶</h2><p><strong>英伟达将Alpamayo称为"物理AI的ChatGPT时刻"。</strong>这一开源AI模型家族旨在解决自动驾驶的"长尾问题"，即那些导致自动驾驶系统脱离或失败的罕见边缘案例。</p><p>旗舰产品Alpamayo 1是一个拥有100亿参数的视觉-语言-行动（VLA）模型。与传统自动驾驶系统仅检测物体和规划路径不同，Alpamayo采用"链式推理"方式。它处理视频输入并生成行驶轨迹，但更关键的是，它还会输出决策背后的逻辑。</p><p>黄仁勋表示：<strong>“这不仅仅是一个驾驶模型，而是一个能解释自己思考过程的模型。”</strong>展会上黄仁勋播放了一段演示视频，Alpamayo不仅能驾驶汽车，还能用自然语言解释自己的决策逻辑，例如“前方车辆刹车灯亮起，它可能减速，所以我应该保持距离”。</p><h2 id=\"id_1957901506\">开源策略对抗特斯拉封闭系统</h2><p>英伟达正通过全面的开源策略切入自动驾驶领域，其最新发布的Alpamayo 1模型权重已在Hugging Face平台开放获取，同步推出的还包括端到端仿真框架AlpaSim以及涵盖1700小时复杂驾驶场景的物理AI开放数据集。</p><p><strong>此举标志着英伟达正以“自动驾驶领域的安卓系统”为定位，构建开放生态，与特斯拉完全封闭的FSD系统形成差异化竞争路径</strong>。英伟达同时宣布，该项技术将自今年第一季度起搭载于梅赛德斯-奔驰CLA车型上，迈出商业化落地的重要一步。</p><h2 id=\"id_2999805665\">马斯克的"长尾问题"论</h2><p>马斯克的回应直指自动驾驶行业的核心瓶颈：模型性能的“长尾困境”。他指出，实现99%场景的高准确率相对可行，但攻克剩余1%的罕见却至关重要的“边缘案例”，才是真正决定技术能否安全落地的关键。</p><p>即便英伟达发布了推理能力更强的开源模型，在应对现实道路的极端复杂性和不确定性时，仍难以绕过特斯拉通过大规模部署所建立的数据与工程壁垒。</p><p>目前，特斯拉FSD系统已在全球数百万辆车上持续运行，积累了涵盖海量场景、尤其是“长尾问题”的真实道路数据与闭环优化经验，这正是其在迭代效率和场景覆盖深度上的结构性优势。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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2026展会上推出名为Alpamayo的开源自动驾驶AI模型，CEO黄仁勋称其为\"世界上首款能思考、能推理的自动驾驶汽车AI\"，直接挑战特斯拉的FSD系统。1月6日，电动汽车分析师Sawyer Merritt在X平台发帖称，英伟达宣布将于今年晚些时候在美国道路上推出Alpamayo。马斯克对此回应称：\"好吧，这正是特斯拉在做的。他们会发现，达到99%很容易，但要解决分布的长尾问题却...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3762641\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f51e0887617e5ccdb1f56ab9d6b7e088","relate_stocks":{"LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","SG9999014906.USD":"大华全球优质成长基金Acc USD","LU1935043023.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (USD) INC A","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) 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Face平台开放获取，同步推出的还包括端到端仿真框架AlpaSim以及涵盖1700小时复杂驾驶场景的物理AI开放数据集。此举标志着英伟达正以“自动驾驶领域的安卓系统”为定位，构建开放生态，与特斯拉完全封闭的FSD系统形成差异化竞争路径。英伟达同时宣布，该项技术将自今年第一季度起搭载于梅赛德斯-奔驰CLA车型上，迈出商业化落地的重要一步。马斯克的\"长尾问题\"论马斯克的回应直指自动驾驶行业的核心瓶颈：模型性能的“长尾困境”。他指出，实现99%场景的高准确率相对可行，但攻克剩余1%的罕见却至关重要的“边缘案例”，才是真正决定技术能否安全落地的关键。即便英伟达发布了推理能力更强的开源模型，在应对现实道路的极端复杂性和不确定性时，仍难以绕过特斯拉通过大规模部署所建立的数据与工程壁垒。目前，特斯拉FSD系统已在全球数百万辆车上持续运行，积累了涵盖海量场景、尤其是“长尾问题”的真实道路数据与闭环优化经验，这正是其在迭代效率和场景覆盖深度上的结构性优势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDX":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDA":1.95,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.93,"NVD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}