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- Ken_PunKen_Pun
  ·2021-07-17
  说完都不知道说什么，垃圾文章
  互联网股跌跌不休，止损还是抄底？
  核心观点今年的股市走到了现在，表现惨淡的除了金融和地产之外，还有互联网股，这个是年初我们万万想不到的。从后见之明的角度来看，确实反垄断和教改是非常重大的政策层面上的利空。但是，已经跌到了这个份上
  互联网股跌跌不休，止损还是抄底？
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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n互联网股跌跌不休，止损还是抄底？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 15:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/e3l5bciR2_IvPvE06ymjaQ><strong>中泰证券资管</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点\n\n\n今年的股市走到了现在，表现惨淡的除了金融和地产之外，还有互联网股，这个是年初我们万万想不到的。从后见之明的角度来看，确实反垄断和教改是非常重大的政策层面上的利空。但是，已经跌到了这个份上，问题来了，能不能买？止损还是抄底？\n\n\n这取决于对长期价值的判断。\n对于长期价值这件事儿，不同的人也可以有不同的观点。以反垄断为例，悲观的人可能会相信这是一个长期性的影响，会破坏互联网龙头公司的长期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/e3l5bciR2_IvPvE06ymjaQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44aecef63e3f5e377465b9127f8ab3cd","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","09988":"阿里巴巴-SW","LI":"理想汽车","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","BABA":"阿里巴巴","00700":"腾讯控股","NIO":"蔚来","SOGO":"搜狗","PDD":"拼多多","09618":"京东集团-SW","JD":"京东"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/e3l5bciR2_IvPvE06ymjaQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146062267","content_text":"核心观点\n\n\n今年的股市走到了现在，表现惨淡的除了金融和地产之外，还有互联网股，这个是年初我们万万想不到的。从后见之明的角度来看，确实反垄断和教改是非常重大的政策层面上的利空。但是，已经跌到了这个份上，问题来了，能不能买？止损还是抄底？\n\n\n这取决于对长期价值的判断。\n对于长期价值这件事儿，不同的人也可以有不同的观点。以反垄断为例，悲观的人可能会相信这是一个长期性的影响，会破坏互联网龙头公司的长期增长的逻辑。那么另外一面，乐观者可能更愿意把它归因为一次个别事件，长期更加相信市场经济的力量，认为马太效应仍然会让强者恒强。\n其实对一项政策的意图进行判断是最不靠谱的一件事儿，因为我们最多只能判断一项政策的影响有多大，而不能去猜测一项政策会持续多久。\n之前的投资人至少犯下了两个错误。一是对于龙头企业的竞争优势，赋予了太高的置信度和太高的决策权重。二是对那些当下并没有发生但显然可能发生的风险事件，选择了无视。\n人们总喜欢基于当下所见的乐观的事实来进行外推式的判断，而选择忽视当下没有发生却可能发生的悲观的情境。就比如说当流量在快速增长时，我们更喜欢把它归因为企业的竞争优势和市场需求的大势所趋。再比如当反垄断政策出手之前，我们又会选择对反垄断法的无视。\n为最乐观的展望进行估值，而不考虑可能发生的悲观的情景，是多数成长型投资者的通病，这个毛病很容易将一个买入的决策置于一种没有安全边际的状态，在这种状态下，一旦有任何风吹草动就容易踩雷。\n今天的流量未必等于明天的利润，而反垄断法也早已颁布了多年，要想到这些悲观的可能性，其实并不需要特别高的想象力和特别高的技术难度，你只需要有悲观谨慎的性格就够了。\n跌下来的互联网股能不能买？我的建议，是少盯着当前的流量，多想想未来的利润，自然而然你就能对未来可能发生的各种情况做到从容应对，没有任何一个企业的未来是可以通过今天的数据而去准确地预知的，靠谱的投资，靠的从来都不是乐观的想象力，而是靠投资和研究框架的完备性。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}