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逃离A股啊哈

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- 逃离A股啊哈逃离A股啊哈
  ·03-13
  $恒生指数主连 2603(HSImain)$ 只要冲高做空必赚[开心]
  119 评论
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- 逃离A股啊哈逃离A股啊哈
  ·03-13
  $恒生指数主连 2603(HSImain)$ 夜盘拉，白天砸，真有你的垃圾
  111 评论
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- 逃离A股啊哈逃离A股啊哈
  ·03-09
  呵呵，我就不信全世界能被一个小伊朗给绑架了！
  真正的油价冲击！中东原油“停产潮”即将来到
  摩根大通表示，油价面临一种明显的不对称风险结构，如果出现缓和局势的外交或军事进展，油价可能下跌约10美元，但是中东产油国“停产潮”迅速蔓延，伊拉克已大幅减产，科威特等即将跟进，停产规模最高或逼近600万桶/日。一旦全面停产，油价或暴涨30美元。高盛警告霍尔木兹海峡石油流量已暴跌90%，若危机持续，油价甚至超越2008年历史峰值。
  真正的油价冲击！中东原油“停产潮”即将来到
  75 评论
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- 逃离A股啊哈逃离A股啊哈
  ·03-09
  $恒生指数主连 2603(HSImain)$ 港股真是后娘养的垃圾东西！毫无存在的意义！
  222 评论
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- 逃离A股啊哈逃离A股啊哈
  ·03-09
  $哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 港股真是跟跌不跟涨的废物！
  329 评论
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- 逃离A股啊哈逃离A股啊哈
  ·03-06
  $哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 真惨，唯一一只绿色被我买到，气的吐血
  389 评论
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- 逃离A股啊哈逃离A股啊哈
  ·03-05
  $恒生指数主连 2603(HSImain)$ 开盘就跌，这个垃圾真是奇葩
  412 评论
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- 逃离A股啊哈逃离A股啊哈
  ·03-05
  $哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 港股真是太弱鸡了，格局一下就拉稀
  358 评论
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- 逃离A股啊哈逃离A股啊哈
  ·03-03
  $恒生指数主连 2603(HSImain)$ 金融垃圾场果然不一样！
  339 评论
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- 逃离A股啊哈逃离A股啊哈
  ·03-02
  $恒生指数主连 2603(HSImain)$ 这个垃圾收盘又开始涨，开盘暴跌！
  290 评论
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HSImain\">$恒生指数主连 2603(HSImain)$&nbsp;</a> 只要冲高做空必赚[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HSImain\">$恒生指数主连 2603(HSImain)$&nbsp;</a> 只要冲高做空必赚[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$恒生指数主连 2603(HSImain)$ 只要冲高做空必赚[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/542269593658672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":542230549029776,"gmtCreate":1773406106490,"gmtModify":1773407262648,"author":{"id":"3519104676971503","authorId":"3519104676971503","name":"逃离A股啊哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cb0f76320cc94a64a1ac39a740900eb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519104676971503","idStr":"3519104676971503"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HSImain\">$恒生指数主连 2603(HSImain)$&nbsp;</a> 夜盘拉，白天砸，真有你的垃圾","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HSImain\">$恒生指数主连 2603(HSImain)$&nbsp;</a> 夜盘拉，白天砸，真有你的垃圾","text":"$恒生指数主连 2603(HSImain)$ 夜盘拉，白天砸，真有你的垃圾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/542230549029776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":540822171681504,"gmtCreate":1773023010032,"gmtModify":1773023013114,"author":{"id":"3519104676971503","authorId":"3519104676971503","name":"逃离A股啊哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cb0f76320cc94a64a1ac39a740900eb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519104676971503","idStr":"3519104676971503"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"呵呵，我就不信全世界能被一个小伊朗给绑架了！","listText":"呵呵，我就不信全世界能被一个小伊朗给绑架了！","text":"呵呵，我就不信全世界能被一个小伊朗给绑架了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/540822171681504","repostId":"2617657374","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2617657374","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1772872391,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2617657374?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-07 16:33","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"真正的油价冲击！中东原油“停产潮”即将来到","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2617657374","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根大通表示，油价面临一种明显的不对称风险结构，如果出现缓和局势的外交或军事进展，油价可能下跌约10美元，但是中东产油国“停产潮”迅速蔓延，伊拉克已大幅减产，科威特等即将跟进，停产规模最高或逼近600万桶/日。一旦全面停产，油价或暴涨30美元。高盛警告霍尔木兹海峡石油流量已暴跌90%，若危机持续，油价甚至超越2008年历史峰值。","content":"<p>中东局势正把全球石油市场推向一场真实的供应危机。</p><p>随着霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>商业航运几近瘫痪，海湾地区的原油出口正不断受阻，库存迅速累积。一旦储罐与海上油轮容量被填满，部分产油国将不得不削减产量——<strong>一场由物流瓶颈触发的区域性“停产潮”正在逼近。</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>大宗商品分析师NatashaKaneva在3月7日的最新报告中估算，海湾地区的供应中断规模可能从目前约150万桶/日，在本周末升至300万桶/日，下周末超过400万桶/日；若成品油储罐容量耗尽，停产规模甚至可能逼近600万桶/日。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45fe2b82df1ad5787fb22e8e1b8f8ab3\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"525\"></p><p>在这样的背景下，油价面临一种明显的不对称风险结构：</p><blockquote><p>利好消息可能令油价回落约10美元，但一旦海湾停产真正扩散，油价上涨30美元并不夸张。</p></blockquote><p>与此同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>监测数据显示，霍尔木兹海峡石油流量已暴跌约90%。若未来数日局势无法缓解，该行认为油价下周突破100美元/桶的概率将显著上升，而如果海峡运输在整个3月持续受阻，油价甚至可能挑战2008年与2022年的历史高点。</p><h2 id=\"id_912148888\">霍尔木兹海峡：全球能源动脉几乎停摆</h2><p>冲突爆发第七天，霍尔木兹海峡的商业通行量已经接近归零。</p><p>根据高盛大宗商品研究团队的最新监测数据，目前仍通过海峡航行的船只几乎只剩下伊朗船只。对依赖该水道出口原油的海湾国家而言，这意味着最关键的能源运输通道已接近停摆。</p><p>与此同时，高盛估算，霍尔木兹海峡的石油流量已<strong>暴跌约90%</strong>。</p><p>如果按波斯湾整体出口能力计算，这一变化意味着潜在供应冲击规模达到<strong>1710万桶/日</strong>——相当于<strong>2022年4月俄罗斯减产峰值的17倍</strong>。</p><p>库存因此迅速累积。</p><p>摩根大通统计显示，自2月底以来，海湾地区已累计增加约<strong>7600万桶原油库存</strong>：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>4600万桶储存在油轮</p></li><li><p>2200万桶储存在炼厂</p></li><li><p>800万桶储存在商业仓储</p></li></ul></blockquote><p>这一规模相当于该地区约<strong>4.5天的原油出口量</strong>，且库存积累主要集中在<strong>沙特阿拉伯</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2f83ac92f8564da9fcedc3e67ec2d85\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"459\"></p><p>库存压力正在把问题从运输端逐渐推向生产端。</p><h2 id=\"id_940182048\">替代路线有限：管道尚有空间，物流成为瓶颈</h2><p>尽管霍尔木兹受阻，海湾国家并非完全没有替代路线。</p><p>摩根大通数据显示，沙特与阿联酋目前仍有约<strong>160万桶/日</strong>的备用管道出口能力尚未使用。</p><p>其中，沙特已经明显提高了东西管道的利用率，将原油输往红海沿岸。</p><p>目前：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>红海港口<strong>延布港</strong>装载量约<strong>250万桶/</strong>日，较此前增加<strong>180万桶/日</strong></p></li><li><p>另有约<strong>130万桶/日</strong>流向西海岸炼厂</p></li></ul></blockquote><p>这意味着整个管道系统当前输送量约<strong>380万桶/日</strong>，仍低于其<strong>500万桶/日</strong>的额定能力。</p><p>摩根大通指出，该管道理论上可短期提升至<strong>650万至700万桶/日</strong>。但真正的限制并不在管道，而在港口和航运能力：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>延布港装载条件有限</p></li><li><p>红海油轮供应紧张</p></li></ul></blockquote><p>这些因素限制了沙特迅速重新调配海湾出口的能力。</p><p>阿联酋方面，尽管阿布扎比原油管道同样可以绕过霍尔木兹，并保留约<strong>40万桶/日</strong>备用产能，但富查伊拉港的出口量目前仍基本稳定，并未出现明显增量。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00eb16e8bc1f7f1b1bc7e6b165c6e7ef\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"440\"></p><p>摩根大通同时提醒，<strong>胡塞武装仍是关键变量</strong>。如果伊朗通过地区代理力量扩大封锁范围，红海航线的安全性也可能受到影响。</p><h2 id=\"id_3836912725\">停产潮开始蔓延</h2><p>随着库存迅速累积，部分产油国已经开始被迫减产。</p><p>摩根大通报告显示，冲突爆发仅六天，<strong>伊拉克已经削减约150万桶/日供应</strong>。</p><p>而<strong>科威特</strong>的压力也在迅速上升。</p><p>由于储罐接近饱和，科威特已将炼厂开工率削减约<strong>60万桶/日</strong>，基本关停所有出口导向型炼能，仅维持国内消费所需的最低生产水平。</p><p>根据摩根大通测算：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>若当前库存积累速度持续</p></li><li><p>科威特距离启动上游停产约<strong>4天</strong></p></li><li><p>若成品油储存空间尚存，最多可延至<strong>9天</strong></p></li></ul></blockquote><p>该行预计，<strong>阿联酋的供应约束信号也可能在下周初开始显现。</strong></p><p>按照其情景推演，海湾地区供应中断规模可能快速扩大：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>当前：约<strong>150万桶/日</strong></p></li><li><p>本周末：约<strong>300万桶/日</strong></p></li><li><p>下周末：超过<strong>400万桶/日</strong></p></li><li><p>若储罐耗尽：可能逼近<strong>600万桶/日</strong></p></li></ul></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1298922305\">各国开始准备应急措施</h2><p>面对潜在供应冲击，各国政府已开始准备应急方案。</p><p>日本炼厂正敦促政府考虑释放<strong>战略石油储备</strong>；</p><p>泰国已经启动能源应急计划，并暂停石油出口以保障国内库存。</p><p>国际能源署表示，如果供应中断持续，将准备协调全球战略储备的<strong>联合释放</strong>，但目前仍在观察霍尔木兹封锁是否会演变为长期态势。</p><p>美国政府则暂未计划动用战略石油储备。</p><p>特朗普政府目前正在评估多种应对选项，包括：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>豁免燃料混合要求</p></li><li><p>甚至由美国财政部参与石油期货市场</p></li></ul></blockquote><p>本周二，特朗普宣布，美国将为油轮提供<strong>保险担保和海军护航</strong>，以帮助恢复霍尔木兹海峡航运。</p><p>与此同时，美国已临时放宽对俄罗斯石油运往印度的制裁，有效期至<strong>4月4日</strong>。</p><p>这一调整已经迅速改变市场报价。</p><p>3月至4月初到港的俄罗斯<strong>乌拉尔原油</strong>对印度报价，已转为<strong>较布伦特溢价4至5美元/桶（到岸价）</strong>；而在2月，该原油仍以<strong>折价13美元/桶</strong>出售。</p><h2 id=\"id_1838764009\">油价面临明显的“不对称风险”</h2><p>在摩根大通看来，即便美国提供保险担保和海军护航，这些措施本身也难以迅速恢复海峡通行。</p><p>在伊朗干扰能力被有效压制之前，油轮航行仍面临较高风险。</p><p>因此，当前油市正呈现出明显的价格不对称结构：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>如果出现缓和局势的外交或军事进展，油价可能下跌约<strong>10美元</strong></p></li><li><p>但若海湾停产真正扩散至整个市场，油价上涨<strong>30美元</strong>并不夸张</p></li></ul></blockquote><p>这种不对称风险正是当前全球能源市场需要重点评估的核心变量。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>真正的油价冲击！中东原油“停产潮”即将来到</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n真正的油价冲击！中东原油“停产潮”即将来到\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-07 16:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766945><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>中东局势正把全球石油市场推向一场真实的供应危机。随着霍尔木兹海峡商业航运几近瘫痪，海湾地区的原油出口正不断受阻，库存迅速累积。一旦储罐与海上油轮容量被填满，部分产油国将不得不削减产量——一场由物流瓶颈触发的区域性“停产潮”正在逼近。摩根大通大宗商品分析师NatashaKaneva在3月7日的最新报告中估算，海湾地区的供应中断规模可能从目前约150万桶/日，在本周末升至300万桶/日，下周末超过...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766945\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766945","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2617657374","content_text":"中东局势正把全球石油市场推向一场真实的供应危机。随着霍尔木兹海峡商业航运几近瘫痪，海湾地区的原油出口正不断受阻，库存迅速累积。一旦储罐与海上油轮容量被填满，部分产油国将不得不削减产量——一场由物流瓶颈触发的区域性“停产潮”正在逼近。摩根大通大宗商品分析师NatashaKaneva在3月7日的最新报告中估算，海湾地区的供应中断规模可能从目前约150万桶/日，在本周末升至300万桶/日，下周末超过400万桶/日；若成品油储罐容量耗尽，停产规模甚至可能逼近600万桶/日。在这样的背景下，油价面临一种明显的不对称风险结构：利好消息可能令油价回落约10美元，但一旦海湾停产真正扩散，油价上涨30美元并不夸张。与此同时，高盛监测数据显示，霍尔木兹海峡石油流量已暴跌约90%。若未来数日局势无法缓解，该行认为油价下周突破100美元/桶的概率将显著上升，而如果海峡运输在整个3月持续受阻，油价甚至可能挑战2008年与2022年的历史高点。霍尔木兹海峡：全球能源动脉几乎停摆冲突爆发第七天，霍尔木兹海峡的商业通行量已经接近归零。根据高盛大宗商品研究团队的最新监测数据，目前仍通过海峡航行的船只几乎只剩下伊朗船只。对依赖该水道出口原油的海湾国家而言，这意味着最关键的能源运输通道已接近停摆。与此同时，高盛估算，霍尔木兹海峡的石油流量已暴跌约90%。如果按波斯湾整体出口能力计算，这一变化意味着潜在供应冲击规模达到1710万桶/日——相当于2022年4月俄罗斯减产峰值的17倍。库存因此迅速累积。摩根大通统计显示，自2月底以来，海湾地区已累计增加约7600万桶原油库存：4600万桶储存在油轮2200万桶储存在炼厂800万桶储存在商业仓储这一规模相当于该地区约4.5天的原油出口量，且库存积累主要集中在沙特阿拉伯。库存压力正在把问题从运输端逐渐推向生产端。替代路线有限：管道尚有空间，物流成为瓶颈尽管霍尔木兹受阻，海湾国家并非完全没有替代路线。摩根大通数据显示，沙特与阿联酋目前仍有约160万桶/日的备用管道出口能力尚未使用。其中，沙特已经明显提高了东西管道的利用率，将原油输往红海沿岸。目前：红海港口延布港装载量约250万桶/日，较此前增加180万桶/日另有约130万桶/日流向西海岸炼厂这意味着整个管道系统当前输送量约380万桶/日，仍低于其500万桶/日的额定能力。摩根大通指出，该管道理论上可短期提升至650万至700万桶/日。但真正的限制并不在管道，而在港口和航运能力：延布港装载条件有限红海油轮供应紧张这些因素限制了沙特迅速重新调配海湾出口的能力。阿联酋方面，尽管阿布扎比原油管道同样可以绕过霍尔木兹，并保留约40万桶/日备用产能，但富查伊拉港的出口量目前仍基本稳定，并未出现明显增量。摩根大通同时提醒，胡塞武装仍是关键变量。如果伊朗通过地区代理力量扩大封锁范围，红海航线的安全性也可能受到影响。停产潮开始蔓延随着库存迅速累积，部分产油国已经开始被迫减产。摩根大通报告显示，冲突爆发仅六天，伊拉克已经削减约150万桶/日供应。而科威特的压力也在迅速上升。由于储罐接近饱和，科威特已将炼厂开工率削减约60万桶/日，基本关停所有出口导向型炼能，仅维持国内消费所需的最低生产水平。根据摩根大通测算：若当前库存积累速度持续科威特距离启动上游停产约4天若成品油储存空间尚存，最多可延至9天该行预计，阿联酋的供应约束信号也可能在下周初开始显现。按照其情景推演，海湾地区供应中断规模可能快速扩大：当前：约150万桶/日本周末：约300万桶/日下周末：超过400万桶/日若储罐耗尽：可能逼近600万桶/日各国开始准备应急措施面对潜在供应冲击，各国政府已开始准备应急方案。日本炼厂正敦促政府考虑释放战略石油储备；泰国已经启动能源应急计划，并暂停石油出口以保障国内库存。国际能源署表示，如果供应中断持续，将准备协调全球战略储备的联合释放，但目前仍在观察霍尔木兹封锁是否会演变为长期态势。美国政府则暂未计划动用战略石油储备。特朗普政府目前正在评估多种应对选项，包括：豁免燃料混合要求甚至由美国财政部参与石油期货市场本周二，特朗普宣布，美国将为油轮提供保险担保和海军护航，以帮助恢复霍尔木兹海峡航运。与此同时，美国已临时放宽对俄罗斯石油运往印度的制裁，有效期至4月4日。这一调整已经迅速改变市场报价。3月至4月初到港的俄罗斯乌拉尔原油对印度报价，已转为较布伦特溢价4至5美元/桶（到岸价）；而在2月，该原油仍以折价13美元/桶出售。油价面临明显的“不对称风险”在摩根大通看来，即便美国提供保险担保和海军护航，这些措施本身也难以迅速恢复海峡通行。在伊朗干扰能力被有效压制之前，油轮航行仍面临较高风险。因此，当前油市正呈现出明显的价格不对称结构：如果出现缓和局势的外交或军事进展，油价可能下跌约10美元但若海湾停产真正扩散至整个市场，油价上涨30美元并不夸张这种不对称风险正是当前全球能源市场需要重点评估的核心变量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":2,"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":540678406927048,"gmtCreate":1773019625136,"gmtModify":1773020030557,"author":{"id":"3519104676971503","authorId":"3519104676971503","name":"逃离A股啊哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cb0f76320cc94a64a1ac39a740900eb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519104676971503","idStr":"3519104676971503"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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