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momogogo
momogogo
·
09-30
哈哈哈哈，谁还信房地产谁就是最绿韭菜
港股直击｜内房股重挫，万科企业大跌9%，融创中国、绿城中国跌7%
内房股重挫，万科企业大跌 9%，融创中国、绿城中国跌 7%，龙湖集团跌 6%。
港股直击｜内房股重挫，万科企业大跌9%，融创中国、绿城中国跌7%
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momogogo
momogogo
·
09-11
就算加息，又能咋地？
美联储决议“最后拼图”今夜揭晓！8月CPI或达3.4%，加息概率现已飙破73%
若道琼斯共识正确，报告将显示上月所有商品和服务价格环比上涨0.4%，年通胀率达3.4%。“目前，我们维持美联储9月FOMC会议不加息的预测。但若8月CPI数据，尤其是与PCE相关的分项意外上行，将显著增加下周政策收紧的可能性。”美联储主席凯文·沃什已表示，货币政策方向依赖市场指标。“明天8月CPI报告出现重大意外，或与伊朗达成最后一刻协议，仍可能影响决策。”
美联储决议“最后拼图”今夜揭晓！8月CPI或达3.4%，加息概率现已飙破73%
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momogogo
momogogo
·
07-29
我理你个鬼
美联储决议前夜：这一次，华尔街真的猜不透了
过去，美联储召开议息会议前，市场通常早已对结果形成一致预期，但这一次却不同。两周前，市场普遍认为，美联储将在本次会议上继续维持利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。过去，美联储主席通常会通过调整声明措辞，或暗示未来会议更可能采取行动，来减少委员公开投下反对票。如果美联储意外宣布加息，则意味着政策立场发生明显转向。如果美联储选择加息，沃什给出的理由将直接影响市场走势。
美联储决议前夜：这一次，华尔街真的猜不透了
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momogogo
momogogo
·
07-20
回归正常
港股直击 | 智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元；MINIMAX跌超10%，股价跌破200港元
7月20日，智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元大关；MINIMAX跌超10%，股价跌破200港元
港股直击 | 智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元；MINIMAX跌超10%，股价跌破200港元
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momogogo
momogogo
·
07-14
$美光科技(MU)$
拉胯
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momogogo
momogogo
·
06-29
吃饱了撑的吗？
三星、SK海力士、美光在美遭集体诉讼，涉嫌操纵内存价格
三星电子、SK海力士和美光科技被美国部分消费者起诉，指控其涉嫌合谋操纵内存价格。原告指控，这三家生产全球绝大部分DRAM的企业自2022年起在供应和定价上进行串通，导致过去四年间价格飙升约700%。他们还表示，苹果近期全面上调产品价格是此次诉讼的导火索。若原告最终在集体诉讼中胜诉，被告企业将须支付三倍赔偿。三星电子和SK海力士此前在美国曾因合谋行为被定罪，这一点也令人担忧。
三星、SK海力士、美光在美遭集体诉讼，涉嫌操纵内存价格
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momogogo
momogogo
·
05-28
$ST华谊(300027)$
在你们创业板IPO第一天，我就知道你们是来圈钱的，今天才被打回原形，还是晚了，这类公司这类人群，应该更早被甄别出来。
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momogogo
momogogo
·
05-25
你们累不累啊？大家都懒得叼你们这摊烂泥了
伊媒称伊美尚未达成谅解备忘录，鲁比奥则称协议仍可能于周一签署
仍有条款存在争议。
伊媒称伊美尚未达成谅解备忘录，鲁比奥则称协议仍可能于周一签署
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momogogo
momogogo
·
05-21
理华尔街作甚？
英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？
英伟达盘后下跌，当"超预期"成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。
英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？
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momogogo
momogogo
·
05-19
神棍进化为搅屎棍
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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-30 09:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">内房股重挫，万科企业大跌 9%，融创中国、绿城中国跌 7%，龙湖集团跌 6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息面上，财政部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局明确，自10月1日起实施居民购房贷款贴息政策，政策期暂定1年。本次贴息政策聚焦首套刚需，单户所购住房建筑面积不超过120平方米、购房价格不超过150万元。符合条件的首套住房商业性个人住房贷款，可享年化1个百分点贴息，贴息期限最长5年，相当于优惠利率的三分之一；以100万元长期限贷款为例，最多可累计减少付息近5万元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国盛证券指出，政策整体属于面向特定刚需群体的精准托底，而非全面刺激。效果看，贴息政策有望降低刚需购房门槛，推动部分观望需求在一年政策窗口内提前释放，对低总价、中小户型的新房和二手房交易形成一定支撑，对低房价城市、县域及大城市远郊的带动将更为明显。不过考虑到“首套、120平以下、150万以下”三大硬性条件，对高房价城市核心区域及全国房地产需求的拉动可能相对有限。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff14b750b89aca4273bb0fc52536bf20\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"654\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06998f098ca391e0a64edfd0497ec5c5","relate_stocks":{"03900":"绿城中国","02202":"万科企业","01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142535564","content_text":"内房股重挫，万科企业大跌 9%，融创中国、绿城中国跌 7%，龙湖集团跌 6%。消息面上，财政部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局明确，自10月1日起实施居民购房贷款贴息政策，政策期暂定1年。本次贴息政策聚焦首套刚需，单户所购住房建筑面积不超过120平方米、购房价格不超过150万元。符合条件的首套住房商业性个人住房贷款，可享年化1个百分点贴息，贴息期限最长5年，相当于优惠利率的三分之一；以100万元长期限贷款为例，最多可累计减少付息近5万元。国盛证券指出，政策整体属于面向特定刚需群体的精准托底，而非全面刺激。效果看，贴息政策有望降低刚需购房门槛，推动部分观望需求在一年政策窗口内提前释放，对低总价、中小户型的新房和二手房交易形成一定支撑，对低房价城市、县域及大城市远郊的带动将更为明显。不过考虑到“首套、120平以下、150万以下”三大硬性条件，对高房价城市核心区域及全国房地产需求的拉动可能相对有限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03900":2,"02202":2,"01918":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606514957071096,"gmtCreate":1789098463455,"gmtModify":1789098465502,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df2c79a5c106d98cf39c6d72b627ef5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"就算加息，又能咋地？","listText":"就算加息，又能咋地？","text":"就算加息，又能咋地？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606514957071096","repostId":"2666512931","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2666512931","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1789090205,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2666512931?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-09-11 09:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储决议“最后拼图”今夜揭晓！8月CPI或达3.4%，加息概率现已飙破73%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2666512931","media":"智通财经","summary":"若道琼斯共识正确，报告将显示上月所有商品和服务价格环比上涨0.4%，年通胀率达3.4%。“目前，我们维持美联储9月FOMC会议不加息的预测。但若8月CPI数据，尤其是与PCE相关的分项意外上行，将显著增加下周政策收紧的可能性。”美联储主席凯文·沃什已表示，货币政策方向依赖市场指标。“明天8月CPI报告出现重大意外，或与伊朗达成最后一刻协议，仍可能影响决策。”","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月11日，美国劳工统计局将于美东时间上午8:30(北京时间今夜20:30)公布8月消费者价格指数(CPI)报告，这份报告将是美联储下周利率决议前获得的最后一块通胀拼图。若道琼斯共识正确，报告将显示上月所有商品和服务价格环比上涨0.4%，年通胀率达3.4%。但剔除食品和能源价格后，核心通胀的环比和同比预期分别为0.2%和2.4%。</p><p>结合周四公布的生产者价格指数(PPI，衡量批发通胀的指标)，CPI将有助于美联储官员预判其首选通胀指标——个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数在9月底公布时的表现。</p><p>该数据预计也将在下周三联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的利率决策中占据重要分量，任何一个百分点的变化都可能意味着维持利率不变还是加息。</p><p>“9月FOMC决策最终取决于CPI数据……因为PCE的大部分分项源自CPI，”野村经济学家在报告中表示。“目前，我们维持美联储9月FOMC会议不加息的预测。但若8月CPI数据，尤其是与PCE相关的分项意外上行，将显著增加下周政策收紧的可能性。”</p><p>周四PPI数据发布后，根据芝商所FedWatch对期货价格的衡量，交易员将加息25个基点的概率提升至73%以上。</p><p>然而，预期一直波动不定，高度依赖数据及能源价格走势，这使得周五数据的利害关系更为重大。美联储主席凯文·沃什已表示，货币政策方向依赖市场指标。</p><p>“9月美联储决策在月初看来势均力敌。9月能源价格飙升可能在下周美联储会议时使天平偏向加息，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FITB\">五三银行</a>首席美国经济学家比尔·亚当斯表示。“明天8月CPI报告出现重大意外，或与伊朗达成最后一刻协议，仍可能影响决策。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储决议“最后拼图”今夜揭晓！8月CPI或达3.4%，加息概率现已飙破73%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储决议“最后拼图”今夜揭晓！8月CPI或达3.4%，加息概率现已飙破73%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-09-11 09:30 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1494773.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月11日，美国劳工统计局将于美东时间上午8:30(北京时间今夜20:30)公布8月消费者价格指数(CPI)报告，这份报告将是美联储下周利率决议前获得的最后一块通胀拼图。若道琼斯共识正确，报告将显示上月所有商品和服务价格环比上涨0.4%，年通胀率达3.4%。但剔除食品和能源价格后，核心通胀的环比和同比预期分别为0.2%和2.4%。结合周四公布的生产者价格指数(PPI，衡量批发通胀的指标)，CPI将...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1494773.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{"OOQB":"One+One Bitcoin and Ether ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","LIAJ":"LifeX 2053 Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETF","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债","QSWN":"Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core 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16:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储决议前夜：这一次，华尔街真的猜不透了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196328231","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"过去，美联储召开议息会议前，市场通常早已对结果形成一致预期，但这一次却不同。两周前，市场普遍认为，美联储将在本次会议上继续维持利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。过去，美联储主席通常会通过调整声明措辞，或暗示未来会议更可能采取行动，来减少委员公开投下反对票。如果美联储意外宣布加息，则意味着政策立场发生明显转向。如果美联储选择加息，沃什给出的理由将直接影响市场走势。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去，美联储召开议息会议前，市场通常早已对结果形成一致预期，但这一次却不同。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">两周前，市场普遍认为，美联储将在本次会议上继续维持利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。多位美联储高层此前释放的信号也显示，只有在通胀重新走强的情况下才有必要加息。而6月公布的通胀数据低于预期，使市场一度认为，若需要进一步收紧政策，也更可能等到9月。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，上周美伊停火协议破裂、油价迅速上涨后，市场情绪开始发生变化。越来越多交易员开始押注7月加息，而这种预期又进一步推高了市场的加息定价，形成了“预期推动预期”的局面。周二，利率期货市场显示，美联储本周加息的概率约为三分之一，预测市场给出的概率则略低一些。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场之所以重新开始讨论7月加息，并非因为美联储官员释放了新的信号，而是投资者开始猜测，美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）是否会基于自己的判断推动一次“意外加息”。因此，这场会议越来越像是在猜测一位主席的决策逻辑，而非整个委员会的共识。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一、最值得关注：利率决定本身</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储维持利率不变，这仍然是最符合市场主流预期的结果。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论是6月偏温和的通胀数据，还是此前多位官员释放的政策信号，都支持继续观望。两周前，沃什在长达五小时的国会听证会上，也没有任何为加息提前铺路的表态。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若最终按兵不动，市场将重点关注是否出现反对票。如果有委员支持加息，意味着委员会内部要求进一步收紧政策的声音正在增强。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去，美联储主席通常会通过调整声明措辞，或暗示未来会议更可能采取行动，来减少委员公开投下反对票。但沃什一直主张减少这种“前瞻性指引”，如果坚持这一做法，他可能更难避免内部意见分歧被公开。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储意外宣布加息，则意味着政策立场发生明显转向。这不仅会削弱此前官员释放政策信号的可信度，也可能带来政治影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去一年，白宫一直强调美国通胀已受到控制、当前利率偏高。如果由特朗普提名的美联储主席推动加息，无疑将向市场传递完全相反的信息，也有助于打消外界关于沃什受白宫影响的质疑。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>二、沃什真正想传递什么？</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果选择加息，更大的意义或许在于释放一种政策态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什一直强调，要结束美国过去五年来持续高于2%目标的通胀局面。如果在前任主席选择等待的时候率先行动，将比任何公开讲话都更能体现其控制通胀的决心。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，这种策略也存在争议。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">纽约联储主席、FOMC副主席约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）本月早些时候明确表示，美联储的公信力来自于依据经济数据作出正确决策，而不是试图通过货币政策本身去塑造市场对央行的信任。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，即便真的加息，沃什也尚未解释，更高的利率将如何缓解当前的通胀压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他此前曾表示，对于油价等供给冲击，美联储短期内几乎无能为力；同时，他也认为，人工智能带来的生产率提升未来有望帮助压低物价。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>三、新闻发布会可能比决议更重要</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论最终是否加息，市场都将高度关注沃什如何解释这一决定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去两个月，他不断强调恢复价格稳定，并多次表示，美联储必须为持续偏高的通胀负责。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果最终维持利率不变，市场最关心的问题将是：既然如此强调抗通胀，为何这次没有采取行动？未来又需要哪些条件才会促使美联储加息？相比上次会议，中东局势已经重新恶化，油价风险明显上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储选择加息，沃什给出的理由将直接影响市场走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果他将加息描述为纠正过去长期未能实现2%通胀目标的第一步，市场可能会认为本轮加息周期才刚刚开始，一些分析人士甚至预计，长期美债收益率可能因此回落，因为投资者会相信美联储终于下定决心控制通胀。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但如果沃什强调，这只是针对当前局势的一次性应对措施，那么市场解读将相对温和，对未来政策路径的指引意义也会大打折扣。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国银行经济学家Stephen Juneau指出，如果美联储在通胀数据已经明显降温的背景下突然加息，却没有充分解释原因，市场可能会过度解读这一决定，甚至引发新的波动。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>焦点仍在9月</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论本周结果如何，都未必意味着未来政策方向已经确定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">真正决定9月是否加息的，仍将是整个夏季公布的通胀数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储官员此前已经给出明确判断：如果未来几个月通胀重新走强，9月加息的可能性将明显上升；如果通胀继续降温，美联储则有理由继续保持耐心，等待更多经济数据验证趋势。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储决议前夜：这一次，华尔街真的猜不透了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储决议前夜：这一次，华尔街真的猜不透了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-29 16:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去，美联储召开议息会议前，市场通常早已对结果形成一致预期，但这一次却不同。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">两周前，市场普遍认为，美联储将在本次会议上继续维持利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。多位美联储高层此前释放的信号也显示，只有在通胀重新走强的情况下才有必要加息。而6月公布的通胀数据低于预期，使市场一度认为，若需要进一步收紧政策，也更可能等到9月。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，上周美伊停火协议破裂、油价迅速上涨后，市场情绪开始发生变化。越来越多交易员开始押注7月加息，而这种预期又进一步推高了市场的加息定价，形成了“预期推动预期”的局面。周二，利率期货市场显示，美联储本周加息的概率约为三分之一，预测市场给出的概率则略低一些。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场之所以重新开始讨论7月加息，并非因为美联储官员释放了新的信号，而是投资者开始猜测，美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）是否会基于自己的判断推动一次“意外加息”。因此，这场会议越来越像是在猜测一位主席的决策逻辑，而非整个委员会的共识。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一、最值得关注：利率决定本身</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储维持利率不变，这仍然是最符合市场主流预期的结果。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论是6月偏温和的通胀数据，还是此前多位官员释放的政策信号，都支持继续观望。两周前，沃什在长达五小时的国会听证会上，也没有任何为加息提前铺路的表态。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若最终按兵不动，市场将重点关注是否出现反对票。如果有委员支持加息，意味着委员会内部要求进一步收紧政策的声音正在增强。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去，美联储主席通常会通过调整声明措辞，或暗示未来会议更可能采取行动，来减少委员公开投下反对票。但沃什一直主张减少这种“前瞻性指引”，如果坚持这一做法，他可能更难避免内部意见分歧被公开。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储意外宣布加息，则意味着政策立场发生明显转向。这不仅会削弱此前官员释放政策信号的可信度，也可能带来政治影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去一年，白宫一直强调美国通胀已受到控制、当前利率偏高。如果由特朗普提名的美联储主席推动加息，无疑将向市场传递完全相反的信息，也有助于打消外界关于沃什受白宫影响的质疑。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>二、沃什真正想传递什么？</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果选择加息，更大的意义或许在于释放一种政策态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什一直强调，要结束美国过去五年来持续高于2%目标的通胀局面。如果在前任主席选择等待的时候率先行动，将比任何公开讲话都更能体现其控制通胀的决心。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，这种策略也存在争议。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">纽约联储主席、FOMC副主席约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）本月早些时候明确表示，美联储的公信力来自于依据经济数据作出正确决策，而不是试图通过货币政策本身去塑造市场对央行的信任。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，即便真的加息，沃什也尚未解释，更高的利率将如何缓解当前的通胀压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他此前曾表示，对于油价等供给冲击，美联储短期内几乎无能为力；同时，他也认为，人工智能带来的生产率提升未来有望帮助压低物价。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>三、新闻发布会可能比决议更重要</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论最终是否加息，市场都将高度关注沃什如何解释这一决定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去两个月，他不断强调恢复价格稳定，并多次表示，美联储必须为持续偏高的通胀负责。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果最终维持利率不变，市场最关心的问题将是：既然如此强调抗通胀，为何这次没有采取行动？未来又需要哪些条件才会促使美联储加息？相比上次会议，中东局势已经重新恶化，油价风险明显上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储选择加息，沃什给出的理由将直接影响市场走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果他将加息描述为纠正过去长期未能实现2%通胀目标的第一步，市场可能会认为本轮加息周期才刚刚开始，一些分析人士甚至预计，长期美债收益率可能因此回落，因为投资者会相信美联储终于下定决心控制通胀。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但如果沃什强调，这只是针对当前局势的一次性应对措施，那么市场解读将相对温和，对未来政策路径的指引意义也会大打折扣。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国银行经济学家Stephen Juneau指出，如果美联储在通胀数据已经明显降温的背景下突然加息，却没有充分解释原因，市场可能会过度解读这一决定，甚至引发新的波动。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>焦点仍在9月</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论本周结果如何，都未必意味着未来政策方向已经确定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">真正决定9月是否加息的，仍将是整个夏季公布的通胀数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储官员此前已经给出明确判断：如果未来几个月通胀重新走强，9月加息的可能性将明显上升；如果通胀继续降温，美联储则有理由继续保持耐心，等待更多经济数据验证趋势。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","AGG":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays综合国债","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","VGLT":"美国长期国债ETF-Vanguard","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","TBT":"债券20+美国债指数ETF-ProShares两倍做空","SGOV":"Ishares 0-3 Month Treasury BOND ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UBT":"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","SHV":"Ishares 0-1 YEAR Treasury BOND 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Warsh）是否会基于自己的判断推动一次“意外加息”。因此，这场会议越来越像是在猜测一位主席的决策逻辑，而非整个委员会的共识。一、最值得关注：利率决定本身如果美联储维持利率不变，这仍然是最符合市场主流预期的结果。无论是6月偏温和的通胀数据，还是此前多位官员释放的政策信号，都支持继续观望。两周前，沃什在长达五小时的国会听证会上，也没有任何为加息提前铺路的表态。若最终按兵不动，市场将重点关注是否出现反对票。如果有委员支持加息，意味着委员会内部要求进一步收紧政策的声音正在增强。过去，美联储主席通常会通过调整声明措辞，或暗示未来会议更可能采取行动，来减少委员公开投下反对票。但沃什一直主张减少这种“前瞻性指引”，如果坚持这一做法，他可能更难避免内部意见分歧被公开。如果美联储意外宣布加息，则意味着政策立场发生明显转向。这不仅会削弱此前官员释放政策信号的可信度，也可能带来政治影响。过去一年，白宫一直强调美国通胀已受到控制、当前利率偏高。如果由特朗普提名的美联储主席推动加息，无疑将向市场传递完全相反的信息，也有助于打消外界关于沃什受白宫影响的质疑。二、沃什真正想传递什么？如果选择加息，更大的意义或许在于释放一种政策态度。沃什一直强调，要结束美国过去五年来持续高于2%目标的通胀局面。如果在前任主席选择等待的时候率先行动，将比任何公开讲话都更能体现其控制通胀的决心。不过，这种策略也存在争议。纽约联储主席、FOMC副主席约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）本月早些时候明确表示，美联储的公信力来自于依据经济数据作出正确决策，而不是试图通过货币政策本身去塑造市场对央行的信任。此外，即便真的加息，沃什也尚未解释，更高的利率将如何缓解当前的通胀压力。他此前曾表示，对于油价等供给冲击，美联储短期内几乎无能为力；同时，他也认为，人工智能带来的生产率提升未来有望帮助压低物价。三、新闻发布会可能比决议更重要无论最终是否加息，市场都将高度关注沃什如何解释这一决定。过去两个月，他不断强调恢复价格稳定，并多次表示，美联储必须为持续偏高的通胀负责。如果最终维持利率不变，市场最关心的问题将是：既然如此强调抗通胀，为何这次没有采取行动？未来又需要哪些条件才会促使美联储加息？相比上次会议，中东局势已经重新恶化，油价风险明显上升。如果美联储选择加息，沃什给出的理由将直接影响市场走势。如果他将加息描述为纠正过去长期未能实现2%通胀目标的第一步，市场可能会认为本轮加息周期才刚刚开始，一些分析人士甚至预计，长期美债收益率可能因此回落，因为投资者会相信美联储终于下定决心控制通胀。但如果沃什强调，这只是针对当前局势的一次性应对措施，那么市场解读将相对温和，对未来政策路径的指引意义也会大打折扣。美国银行经济学家Stephen Juneau指出，如果美联储在通胀数据已经明显降温的背景下突然加息，却没有充分解释原因，市场可能会过度解读这一决定，甚至引发新的波动。焦点仍在9月无论本周结果如何，都未必意味着未来政策方向已经确定。真正决定9月是否加息的，仍将是整个夏季公布的通胀数据。美联储官员此前已经给出明确判断：如果未来几个月通胀重新走强，9月加息的可能性将明显上升；如果通胀继续降温，美联储则有理由继续保持耐心，等待更多经济数据验证趋势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":2,"TQQQ":2,"IEF":2,"SQQQ":2,"BOXX":2,"TLH":2,"VGIT":2,"TMF":2,"YMmain":2,"UBT":2,"HYG":2,"TMV":2,"VGLT":2,"TLTW":2,".IXIC":2,"QQQ":2,"AGG":2,"VGSH":2,"BND":2,"ESmain":2,"EDV":2,".DJI":2,"TLT":2,"TBT":2,"SCHO":2,"SHV":2,"SHY":2,"NQmain":2,"GOVT":2,"SGOV":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":587711926759992,"gmtCreate":1784515871653,"gmtModify":1784515873295,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df2c79a5c106d98cf39c6d72b627ef5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"回归正常","listText":"回归正常","text":"回归正常","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/587711926759992","repostId":"1195266647","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195266647","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1784514198,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195266647?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-20 10:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股直击 | 智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元；MINIMAX跌超10%，股价跌破200港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195266647","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月20日，智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元大关；MINIMAX跌超10%，股价跌破200港元","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月20日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02513\">智谱</a>跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元大关；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00100\">MINIMAX-W</a>跌超10%，股价跌破200港元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/471def1433b0397b6c7fd5a45dc166ff\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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10:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月20日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02513\">智谱</a>跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元大关；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00100\">MINIMAX-W</a>跌超10%，股价跌破200港元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/471def1433b0397b6c7fd5a45dc166ff\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d9d6040a0845516a8f8d6acac45fdcaf","relate_stocks":{"00100":"MINIMAX-W","02513":"智谱"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195266647","content_text":"7月20日，智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元大关；MINIMAX-W跌超10%，股价跌破200港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00100":2.1,"02513":2.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":585758777521272,"gmtCreate":1784038954760,"gmtModify":1784038956492,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df2c79a5c106d98cf39c6d72b627ef5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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拉胯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/585758777521272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":580439775388288,"gmtCreate":1782739097716,"gmtModify":1782739099481,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df2c79a5c106d98cf39c6d72b627ef5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"吃饱了撑的吗？","listText":"吃饱了撑的吗？","text":"吃饱了撑的吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/580439775388288","repostId":"1187092008","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187092008","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1782737781,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187092008?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-29 20:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"三星、SK海力士、美光在美遭集体诉讼，涉嫌操纵内存价格","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187092008","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"三星电子、SK海力士和美光科技被美国部分消费者起诉，指控其涉嫌合谋操纵内存价格。原告指控，这三家生产全球绝大部分DRAM的企业自2022年起在供应和定价上进行串通，导致过去四年间价格飙升约700%。他们还表示，苹果近期全面上调产品价格是此次诉讼的导火索。若原告最终在集体诉讼中胜诉，被告企业将须支付三倍赔偿。三星电子和SK海力士此前在美国曾因合谋行为被定罪，这一点也令人担忧。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星电子、SK海力士和美光科技被美国部分消费者起诉，指控其涉嫌合谋操纵内存价格。随着近期“芯片通胀”加剧——包括苹果产品提价——当地消费者和小企业已采取法律行动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据美国科技媒体Wccftech及法律刊物LAW360报道，14名个人消费者以及包括个人电脑零售商在内的三家小企业，于本月25日向加利福尼亚州联邦法院提起了诉讼。原告指控，这三家生产全球绝大部分DRAM的企业自2022年起在供应和定价上进行串通，导致过去四年间价格飙升约700%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">原告称，这三家公司以向高带宽内存（HBM）转型为由，减少了DRAM的供应。“这些DRAM寡头企业系统性地协调了向HBM的转移，以及DDR3和DDR4的停产。”他们还表示，苹果近期全面上调产品价格是此次诉讼的导火索。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这起诉讼目前规模尚小，但如果法院认可原告主张并正式批准为集体诉讼，规模可能进一步扩大。代表原告的反垄断律师事务所Bathaee Dunne正争取将此案定性为集体诉讼，以代表所有购买含DRAM产品的普通消费者和企业。该律所此前曾在一起指控谷歌数字广告串通的案件中胜诉。若原告最终在集体诉讼中胜诉，被告企业将须支付三倍赔偿。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星电子和SK海力士此前在美国曾因合谋行为被定罪，这一点也令人担忧。这两家公司均被认定在21世纪初在美国从事价格操纵，不仅被处以巨额罚款，还导致高管被判入狱。不过，包括投资银行杰富瑞（Jefferies）在内的业内机构预计，该诉讼至少在今年年底前不会影响内存价格。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>三星、SK海力士、美光在美遭集体诉讼，涉嫌操纵内存价格</title>\n<style 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left;\">三星电子、SK海力士和美光科技被美国部分消费者起诉，指控其涉嫌合谋操纵内存价格。随着近期“芯片通胀”加剧——包括苹果产品提价——当地消费者和小企业已采取法律行动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据美国科技媒体Wccftech及法律刊物LAW360报道，14名个人消费者以及包括个人电脑零售商在内的三家小企业，于本月25日向加利福尼亚州联邦法院提起了诉讼。原告指控，这三家生产全球绝大部分DRAM的企业自2022年起在供应和定价上进行串通，导致过去四年间价格飙升约700%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">原告称，这三家公司以向高带宽内存（HBM）转型为由，减少了DRAM的供应。“这些DRAM寡头企业系统性地协调了向HBM的转移，以及DDR3和DDR4的停产。”他们还表示，苹果近期全面上调产品价格是此次诉讼的导火索。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这起诉讼目前规模尚小，但如果法院认可原告主张并正式批准为集体诉讼，规模可能进一步扩大。代表原告的反垄断律师事务所Bathaee Dunne正争取将此案定性为集体诉讼，以代表所有购买含DRAM产品的普通消费者和企业。该律所此前曾在一起指控谷歌数字广告串通的案件中胜诉。若原告最终在集体诉讼中胜诉，被告企业将须支付三倍赔偿。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星电子和SK海力士此前在美国曾因合谋行为被定罪，这一点也令人担忧。这两家公司均被认定在21世纪初在美国从事价格操纵，不仅被处以巨额罚款，还导致高管被判入狱。不过，包括投资银行杰富瑞（Jefferies）在内的业内机构预计，该诉讼至少在今年年底前不会影响内存价格。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97dc49a1c38f37d8c33d7241fccf9976","relate_stocks":{"07709":"南方东英SK海力士每日杠杆最多 (2x) 产品","MUU":"2倍做多MU 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left;\">伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社今天(5月25日)援引一名知情人士的话称，迄今为止美伊双方尚未达成最终谅解备忘录，仍有条款存在争议。鉴于美国过往谈判中屡次失信，伊朗对美方不抱任何乐观预期，即便达成协议，也会密切监督美方履约情况，一旦美方违背承诺，伊朗将保留全部谈判筹码予以反制。(CCTV国际时讯)</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一方面，据半岛电视台报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示：<strong>仍有希望与伊朗达成协议。在任何与伊朗达成的协议中，以色列都有权进行自卫。随着谈判的继续，与伊朗的潜在协议最早仍可能于周一签署。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f19eed0dfe9b6f15725f2f7a21a5852","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152925080","content_text":"伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社今天(5月25日)援引一名知情人士的话称，迄今为止美伊双方尚未达成最终谅解备忘录，仍有条款存在争议。鉴于美国过往谈判中屡次失信，伊朗对美方不抱任何乐观预期，即便达成协议，也会密切监督美方履约情况，一旦美方违背承诺，伊朗将保留全部谈判筹码予以反制。(CCTV国际时讯)另一方面，据半岛电视台报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示：仍有希望与伊朗达成协议。在任何与伊朗达成的协议中，以色列都有权进行自卫。随着谈判的继续，与伊朗的潜在协议最早仍可能于周一签署。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":2,"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1012,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":566523486848104,"gmtCreate":1779345724539,"gmtModify":1779345726894,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df2c79a5c106d98cf39c6d72b627ef5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"理华尔街作甚？","listText":"理华尔街作甚？","text":"理华尔街作甚？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566523486848104","repostId":"2637047068","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2637047068","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1779344091,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2637047068?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-21 14:14","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2637047068","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"英伟达盘后下跌，当\"超预期\"成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达盘后下跌，当"超预期"成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达又一次交出“超预期业绩加上调指引”的成绩单，但市场反应显示，对全球AI龙头而言，强劲增长已不再自动等于股价上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达财年第一季度营收为816亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益为1.87美元，高于预期的1.75美元。公司预计7月季度营收为910亿美元，也高于FactSet共识预期的873亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便如此，英伟达股价周三盘后最终下跌约1%。公司给出的调整后毛利率目标为75%，与最近一个季度持平，没有出现市场担忧的利润率收缩，但仍未能推动股价走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Direxion产品与策略高级副总裁Ryan Lee写道，“市场要求世界最大公司做到完美。”Direxion资本市场负责人Jake Behan补充称，<strong>当预期已经如此之高时，即使一份强劲财报，如果没有实质性抬高长期前景，也可能压制股价。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1105007441\" style=\"text-align: left;\">业绩全面高于预期，但“惊喜”不再稀缺</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达本季度核心指标几乎全面超过华尔街预期。营收同比增速从上一季度的73.2%加快至85%，也高于去年11月季度62%的同比增速。调整后每股收益同样高于市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍是最大支柱。财年第一季度数据中心收入为752亿美元，同比增长92%，环比增长21%，高于FactSet预期的731亿美元。公司称增长来自Blackwell架构的持续强劲需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Investing.com分析师Thomas Monteiro认为，<strong>这是英伟达最近几个季度中“最干净的一次超预期”，因为业绩不仅跨过了很高的门槛，也回应了市场围绕AI交易的一些更大疑问。</strong>他认为，目前没有看到需求放缓的明显迹象。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但投资者的反应更谨慎。Jefferies交易台分析师Jeffrey Favuzza将盘后走势称为一场<strong>“knife fight”</strong>。他认为，这<strong>份财报之后，买方对2027年和2028年的盈利预期未必会明显上调。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1051977213\" style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍在加速，网络业务成为关键支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达增长的质量，更多体现在数据中心内部结构上。除GPU需求外，网络业务正在成为更重要的收入来源。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司本季度数据中心网络收入达到148亿美元，创下纪录，同比增长199%，环比增长35%，高于分析师预期的140亿美元。更广义的计算与网络业务收入为756亿美元，同比增长88%，环比增长21%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CFO Colette Kress在电话会上表示，<strong>Blackwell架构已经“无处不在”，并被主要超大规模云厂商，云服务商和主要模型开发商采用和部署。她还提到，OpenAI的新GPT-5.5模型依赖Blackwell。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这对市场很重要。AI基础设施支出不再只是购买单一芯片，而是转向系统，网络和集群能力。Monteiro称，英伟达正在捕捉AI建设中更大份额的支出，客户不仅购买芯片，也购买连接和扩展这些芯片的系统。</p><h2 id=\"id_3870000170\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街寻找新叙事：CPU，推理和智能体AI</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达最熟悉的投资叙事是GPU，但华尔街正在要求更多。HSBC的Frank Lee此前写道，GPU动能已经成为“相对不那么有意义”的投资叙事，因为云公司AI资本开支正流向更多领域，包括内存，网络和服务器CPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达试图给出新的增长路径。随着AI从训练转向推理，并进一步进入智能体AI阶段，CPU的重要性上升。Jensen Huang在电话会上表示，未来可能会出现数十亿个AI智能体，推理硬件需求将随之增加。他称，“思考”发生在GPU上，而编排基本运行在CPU上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Colette Kress表示，Vera CPU为英伟达打开了一个全新的2000亿美元可服务市场。</strong>她还称，公司今年对CPU收入已有接近200亿美元的可见度，这将为英伟达成为全球领先CPU供应商奠定基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的Vera CPU将与下一代Rubin GPU协同工作。Jensen Huang表示，公司预计销售“数百万个Rubin”，并且每两个Rubin将连接一个Vera。这意味着CPU并非简单替代GPU，而是嵌入英伟达的系统级销售模式。</p><h2 id=\"id_1963357280\" style=\"text-align: left;\">股东回报大幅提高，但仍有人嫌不够</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达同时试图通过资本回报扩大投资者基础。公司宣布将股票回购计划增加800亿美元，加上此前授权中剩余的385亿美元，回购空间进一步扩大。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财年第一季度，英伟达回购金额为193.1亿美元，是上一季度38.2亿美元的四倍多，也较上年同期增长37%。公司还将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，隐含股息率从0.02%升至0.45%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这回应了部分投资者诉求。BofA的Vivek Arya此前写道，英伟达股票已被约78%的主动型基金经理持有，较大的既有持仓可能使未来股价上涨面临挑战；其他大型科技公司曾通过提高现金回报吸引股息和收入型投资者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但回报力度仍未完全满足市场。Jeffrey Favuzza称，<strong>对部分投资者而言，800亿美元回购“略低于预期”。</strong>据Birinyi Associates截至4月中旬的数据，只有苹果曾宣布过规模更大的回购授权。</p><h2 id=\"id_1474008724\" style=\"text-align: left;\">更大的考验在长期预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报没有显示AI需求放缓，也没有显示毛利率承压，但它没有完全解除华尔街的长期疑虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Gabelli Funds投资组合经理John Belton此前表示，英伟达是AI资本开支的主要受益者，但未来几年关键问题是这些资本开支是否能产生回报。他称，最新一轮财报后，超大规模云厂商今年AI支出趋势指向约7000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>客户集中度也是风险点。</strong>Belton表示，英伟达约一半收入来自少数超大规模客户，而这些客户正在显著消耗自由现金流。投资者将关注英伟达是否能扩大客户基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达也在调整披露框架。公司将报告结构改为“数据中心”和“边缘计算”两大类，数据中心再细分为超大规模云厂商以及ACIE，即AI云，工业和企业。Founder ETFs投资组合经理Michael Monaghan称，这一变化显示出Jensen Huang眼中的增长方向，主权AI，企业和物理AI已经大到值得单独披露。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，英伟达的问题不是业绩不强，而是强劲已被充分预期。对华尔街而言，下一步需要看到的不是又一次超预期，而是足以重新抬高长期增长曲线的新证据。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-21 14:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达盘后下跌，当"超预期"成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达又一次交出“超预期业绩加上调指引”的成绩单，但市场反应显示，对全球AI龙头而言，强劲增长已不再自动等于股价上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达财年第一季度营收为816亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益为1.87美元，高于预期的1.75美元。公司预计7月季度营收为910亿美元，也高于FactSet共识预期的873亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便如此，英伟达股价周三盘后最终下跌约1%。公司给出的调整后毛利率目标为75%，与最近一个季度持平，没有出现市场担忧的利润率收缩，但仍未能推动股价走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Direxion产品与策略高级副总裁Ryan Lee写道，“市场要求世界最大公司做到完美。”Direxion资本市场负责人Jake Behan补充称，<strong>当预期已经如此之高时，即使一份强劲财报，如果没有实质性抬高长期前景，也可能压制股价。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1105007441\" style=\"text-align: left;\">业绩全面高于预期，但“惊喜”不再稀缺</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达本季度核心指标几乎全面超过华尔街预期。营收同比增速从上一季度的73.2%加快至85%，也高于去年11月季度62%的同比增速。调整后每股收益同样高于市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍是最大支柱。财年第一季度数据中心收入为752亿美元，同比增长92%，环比增长21%，高于FactSet预期的731亿美元。公司称增长来自Blackwell架构的持续强劲需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Investing.com分析师Thomas Monteiro认为，<strong>这是英伟达最近几个季度中“最干净的一次超预期”，因为业绩不仅跨过了很高的门槛，也回应了市场围绕AI交易的一些更大疑问。</strong>他认为，目前没有看到需求放缓的明显迹象。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但投资者的反应更谨慎。Jefferies交易台分析师Jeffrey Favuzza将盘后走势称为一场<strong>“knife fight”</strong>。他认为，这<strong>份财报之后，买方对2027年和2028年的盈利预期未必会明显上调。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1051977213\" style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍在加速，网络业务成为关键支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达增长的质量，更多体现在数据中心内部结构上。除GPU需求外，网络业务正在成为更重要的收入来源。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司本季度数据中心网络收入达到148亿美元，创下纪录，同比增长199%，环比增长35%，高于分析师预期的140亿美元。更广义的计算与网络业务收入为756亿美元，同比增长88%，环比增长21%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CFO Colette Kress在电话会上表示，<strong>Blackwell架构已经“无处不在”，并被主要超大规模云厂商，云服务商和主要模型开发商采用和部署。她还提到，OpenAI的新GPT-5.5模型依赖Blackwell。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这对市场很重要。AI基础设施支出不再只是购买单一芯片，而是转向系统，网络和集群能力。Monteiro称，英伟达正在捕捉AI建设中更大份额的支出，客户不仅购买芯片，也购买连接和扩展这些芯片的系统。</p><h2 id=\"id_3870000170\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街寻找新叙事：CPU，推理和智能体AI</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达最熟悉的投资叙事是GPU，但华尔街正在要求更多。HSBC的Frank Lee此前写道，GPU动能已经成为“相对不那么有意义”的投资叙事，因为云公司AI资本开支正流向更多领域，包括内存，网络和服务器CPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达试图给出新的增长路径。随着AI从训练转向推理，并进一步进入智能体AI阶段，CPU的重要性上升。Jensen Huang在电话会上表示，未来可能会出现数十亿个AI智能体，推理硬件需求将随之增加。他称，“思考”发生在GPU上，而编排基本运行在CPU上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Colette Kress表示，Vera CPU为英伟达打开了一个全新的2000亿美元可服务市场。</strong>她还称，公司今年对CPU收入已有接近200亿美元的可见度，这将为英伟达成为全球领先CPU供应商奠定基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的Vera CPU将与下一代Rubin GPU协同工作。Jensen Huang表示，公司预计销售“数百万个Rubin”，并且每两个Rubin将连接一个Vera。这意味着CPU并非简单替代GPU，而是嵌入英伟达的系统级销售模式。</p><h2 id=\"id_1963357280\" style=\"text-align: left;\">股东回报大幅提高，但仍有人嫌不够</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达同时试图通过资本回报扩大投资者基础。公司宣布将股票回购计划增加800亿美元，加上此前授权中剩余的385亿美元，回购空间进一步扩大。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财年第一季度，英伟达回购金额为193.1亿美元，是上一季度38.2亿美元的四倍多，也较上年同期增长37%。公司还将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，隐含股息率从0.02%升至0.45%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这回应了部分投资者诉求。BofA的Vivek Arya此前写道，英伟达股票已被约78%的主动型基金经理持有，较大的既有持仓可能使未来股价上涨面临挑战；其他大型科技公司曾通过提高现金回报吸引股息和收入型投资者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但回报力度仍未完全满足市场。Jeffrey Favuzza称，<strong>对部分投资者而言，800亿美元回购“略低于预期”。</strong>据Birinyi Associates截至4月中旬的数据，只有苹果曾宣布过规模更大的回购授权。</p><h2 id=\"id_1474008724\" style=\"text-align: left;\">更大的考验在长期预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报没有显示AI需求放缓，也没有显示毛利率承压，但它没有完全解除华尔街的长期疑虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Gabelli Funds投资组合经理John Belton此前表示，英伟达是AI资本开支的主要受益者，但未来几年关键问题是这些资本开支是否能产生回报。他称，最新一轮财报后，超大规模云厂商今年AI支出趋势指向约7000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>客户集中度也是风险点。</strong>Belton表示，英伟达约一半收入来自少数超大规模客户，而这些客户正在显著消耗自由现金流。投资者将关注英伟达是否能扩大客户基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达也在调整披露框架。公司将报告结构改为“数据中心”和“边缘计算”两大类，数据中心再细分为超大规模云厂商以及ACIE，即AI云，工业和企业。Founder ETFs投资组合经理Michael Monaghan称，这一变化显示出Jensen Huang眼中的增长方向，主权AI，企业和物理AI已经大到值得单独披露。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，英伟达的问题不是业绩不强，而是强劲已被充分预期。对华尔街而言，下一步需要看到的不是又一次超预期，而是足以重新抬高长期增长曲线的新证据。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94518631ea8630131b1a8562c1b55bdd","relate_stocks":{"LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1691799644.USD":"Amundi Funds Polen Capital Global Growth A2 (C) USD","HK0000532082.HKD":"ALLIANZ SELECTION INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU1267930573.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"AA\" (SGD) ACC A","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","LU0689626769.HKD":"AB SICAV I - SUSTAINABLE US THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","SG9999014559.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD","BK4543":"AI","LU2028103732.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AMG\" 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INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772797","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2637047068","content_text":"英伟达盘后下跌，当\"超预期\"成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。英伟达又一次交出“超预期业绩加上调指引”的成绩单，但市场反应显示，对全球AI龙头而言，强劲增长已不再自动等于股价上涨。英伟达财年第一季度营收为816亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益为1.87美元，高于预期的1.75美元。公司预计7月季度营收为910亿美元，也高于FactSet共识预期的873亿美元。即便如此，英伟达股价周三盘后最终下跌约1%。公司给出的调整后毛利率目标为75%，与最近一个季度持平，没有出现市场担忧的利润率收缩，但仍未能推动股价走高。Direxion产品与策略高级副总裁Ryan Lee写道，“市场要求世界最大公司做到完美。”Direxion资本市场负责人Jake Behan补充称，当预期已经如此之高时，即使一份强劲财报，如果没有实质性抬高长期前景，也可能压制股价。业绩全面高于预期，但“惊喜”不再稀缺英伟达本季度核心指标几乎全面超过华尔街预期。营收同比增速从上一季度的73.2%加快至85%，也高于去年11月季度62%的同比增速。调整后每股收益同样高于市场预期。数据中心仍是最大支柱。财年第一季度数据中心收入为752亿美元，同比增长92%，环比增长21%，高于FactSet预期的731亿美元。公司称增长来自Blackwell架构的持续强劲需求。Investing.com分析师Thomas Monteiro认为，这是英伟达最近几个季度中“最干净的一次超预期”，因为业绩不仅跨过了很高的门槛，也回应了市场围绕AI交易的一些更大疑问。他认为，目前没有看到需求放缓的明显迹象。但投资者的反应更谨慎。Jefferies交易台分析师Jeffrey Favuzza将盘后走势称为一场“knife fight”。他认为，这份财报之后，买方对2027年和2028年的盈利预期未必会明显上调。数据中心仍在加速，网络业务成为关键支撑英伟达增长的质量，更多体现在数据中心内部结构上。除GPU需求外，网络业务正在成为更重要的收入来源。公司本季度数据中心网络收入达到148亿美元，创下纪录，同比增长199%，环比增长35%，高于分析师预期的140亿美元。更广义的计算与网络业务收入为756亿美元，同比增长88%，环比增长21%。CFO Colette Kress在电话会上表示，Blackwell架构已经“无处不在”，并被主要超大规模云厂商，云服务商和主要模型开发商采用和部署。她还提到，OpenAI的新GPT-5.5模型依赖Blackwell。这对市场很重要。AI基础设施支出不再只是购买单一芯片，而是转向系统，网络和集群能力。Monteiro称，英伟达正在捕捉AI建设中更大份额的支出，客户不仅购买芯片，也购买连接和扩展这些芯片的系统。华尔街寻找新叙事：CPU，推理和智能体AI英伟达最熟悉的投资叙事是GPU，但华尔街正在要求更多。HSBC的Frank Lee此前写道，GPU动能已经成为“相对不那么有意义”的投资叙事，因为云公司AI资本开支正流向更多领域，包括内存，网络和服务器CPU。英伟达试图给出新的增长路径。随着AI从训练转向推理，并进一步进入智能体AI阶段，CPU的重要性上升。Jensen Huang在电话会上表示，未来可能会出现数十亿个AI智能体，推理硬件需求将随之增加。他称，“思考”发生在GPU上，而编排基本运行在CPU上。Colette Kress表示，Vera CPU为英伟达打开了一个全新的2000亿美元可服务市场。她还称，公司今年对CPU收入已有接近200亿美元的可见度，这将为英伟达成为全球领先CPU供应商奠定基础。英伟达的Vera CPU将与下一代Rubin GPU协同工作。Jensen Huang表示，公司预计销售“数百万个Rubin”，并且每两个Rubin将连接一个Vera。这意味着CPU并非简单替代GPU，而是嵌入英伟达的系统级销售模式。股东回报大幅提高，但仍有人嫌不够英伟达同时试图通过资本回报扩大投资者基础。公司宣布将股票回购计划增加800亿美元，加上此前授权中剩余的385亿美元，回购空间进一步扩大。财年第一季度，英伟达回购金额为193.1亿美元，是上一季度38.2亿美元的四倍多，也较上年同期增长37%。公司还将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，隐含股息率从0.02%升至0.45%。这回应了部分投资者诉求。BofA的Vivek Arya此前写道，英伟达股票已被约78%的主动型基金经理持有，较大的既有持仓可能使未来股价上涨面临挑战；其他大型科技公司曾通过提高现金回报吸引股息和收入型投资者。但回报力度仍未完全满足市场。Jeffrey Favuzza称，对部分投资者而言，800亿美元回购“略低于预期”。据Birinyi Associates截至4月中旬的数据，只有苹果曾宣布过规模更大的回购授权。更大的考验在长期预期这份财报没有显示AI需求放缓，也没有显示毛利率承压，但它没有完全解除华尔街的长期疑虑。Gabelli Funds投资组合经理John Belton此前表示，英伟达是AI资本开支的主要受益者，但未来几年关键问题是这些资本开支是否能产生回报。他称，最新一轮财报后，超大规模云厂商今年AI支出趋势指向约7000亿美元。客户集中度也是风险点。Belton表示，英伟达约一半收入来自少数超大规模客户，而这些客户正在显著消耗自由现金流。投资者将关注英伟达是否能扩大客户基础。英伟达也在调整披露框架。公司将报告结构改为“数据中心”和“边缘计算”两大类，数据中心再细分为超大规模云厂商以及ACIE，即AI云，工业和企业。Founder ETFs投资组合经理Michael Monaghan称，这一变化显示出Jensen Huang眼中的增长方向，主权AI，企业和物理AI已经大到值得单独披露。因此，英伟达的问题不是业绩不强，而是强劲已被充分预期。对华尔街而言，下一步需要看到的不是又一次超预期，而是足以重新抬高长期增长曲线的新证据。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDL":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"07788":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"NVDA":2,"NVDX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":565825932980552,"gmtCreate":1779175508973,"gmtModify":1779175943564,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df2c79a5c106d98cf39c6d72b627ef5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"神棍进化为搅屎棍","listText":"神棍进化为搅屎棍","text":"神棍进化为搅屎棍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/565825932980552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}