个人中心 - 老虎社区

fredhzf

IP属地：未知

帖子 · 2帖子 · 2
关注 · 0关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0粉丝 · 0

- fredhzffredhzf
  ·2025-06-25
  “经常账户赤字”。这哪门子新闻啊。不是都知道了gdp里面净出口是更加负的，那经常账户肯定就是更加负的
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  530 评论
  1
  分享
  举报
- fredhzffredhzf
  ·2025-03-30
  上次收到密歇根大学的调查信件，没填。早知道我也填极端些了。
  美股最大的空头：密歇根大学
  自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学通胀预期调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次下跌。
  美股最大的空头：密歇根大学
  477 评论
  1
  分享
  举报

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3482334421752070","uuid":"3482334421752070","gmtCreate":1521651452759,"gmtModify":1521651452759,"name":"fredhzf","pinyin":"fredhzf","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":25,"tweetSize":2,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.09.12","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.22","exceedPercentage":"93.08%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.91%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":3,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":449582319256392,"gmtCreate":1750788239423,"gmtModify":1750803175488,"author":{"id":"3482334421752070","authorId":"3482334421752070","name":"fredhzf","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3482334421752070","authorIdStr":"3482334421752070"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"“经常账户赤字”。这哪门子新闻啊。不是都知道了gdp里面净出口是更加负的，那经常账户肯定就是更加负的","listText":"“经常账户赤字”。这哪门子新闻啊。不是都知道了gdp里面净出口是更加负的，那经常账户肯定就是更加负的","text":"“经常账户赤字”。这哪门子新闻啊。不是都知道了gdp里面净出口是更加负的，那经常账户肯定就是更加负的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/449582319256392","repostId":"2546234219","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":419042813420064,"gmtCreate":1743346899828,"gmtModify":1743384823536,"author":{"id":"3482334421752070","authorId":"3482334421752070","name":"fredhzf","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3482334421752070","authorIdStr":"3482334421752070"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"上次收到密歇根大学的调查信件，没填。早知道我也填极端些了。","listText":"上次收到密歇根大学的调查信件，没填。早知道我也填极端些了。","text":"上次收到密歇根大学的调查信件，没填。早知道我也填极端些了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/419042813420064","repostId":"2523663092","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2523663092","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1743290538,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2523663092?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-03-30 07:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股最大的空头：密歇根大学","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2523663092","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学通胀预期调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次下跌。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学通胀预期调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次下跌。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美股遭遇“黑色星期五”，三大股指全线走低，其中纳指跌2.7%领跌，公用事业板块成为唯一收涨的板块。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d19e93f7cd421037269978e2137d28ea\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"486\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美股重挫背后的“罪魁祸首”是密歇根大学。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">受关税威胁冲击，美国3月密歇根大学短期通胀预期飙升至4.9%，长期通胀预期也升至1993年以来最高，同时消费者信心创逾两年新低。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自从特朗普当选以来，“硬数据”——即实际的经济数值——一直保持稳定。然而，在过去的三个月中，美国通胀“软数据”（基于调查和市场的通胀预期指标）急剧恶化，密歇根大学的消费者情绪调查是这种软数据暴跌的主要驱动力之一。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e326e8eade572d6aa9ae60f80ce7755\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"650\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>值得一提的是，不仅仅是本次，自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次抛售。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最近几次的密歇根消费者调查表明，美国通胀预期已突破近年来的区间波动。此前相当长时间，密歇根5年通胀预期大体在2.9%-3.1%的窄幅波动区间。2022年6月美国通胀处于本轮峰值之际，该通胀预期初值一度达到3.3%，创下2008年以来的最高，而最新的长期通胀预期已显著高于疫情后的峰值水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f446ba065361544eb4228392c622ad\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"709\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于密歇根大学消费者长期通胀预期的飙升，此前美联储主席鲍威尔称，该通胀预期数据属于异常值。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过本周有几名票委“唱反调”，认为调查类的通胀预期数据应高度关注。鸽派票委、芝加哥联储主席表示，如果市场通胀预期也走高，将是“重大危险信号”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛则直言不讳地指出，投资者可以忽略密歇根大学的通胀预期数据。与其他调查相比，密歇根大学的调查在设计上存在诸多局限性。该调查的三个主要问题是：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>通胀预期高度党派化：调查中的通胀预期已经变得极端党派化。</p></li><li><p>民主党人占比过高：参与密歇根大学调查的受访者中，民主党人的比例一直高于共和党人。</p></li><li><p>调查方式改变：从电话调查转向在线调查导致了对通胀预期的更极端的回答。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛认为，这些因素共同推动密歇根大学的短期通胀预期约1.3个百分点，长期通胀预期约0.5个百分点。特别是党派构成变化和党派立场加剧，在2月导致一年期通胀预期大幅上升了1个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>展望未来，投资者需要密切关注即将于4月11日和25日公布的密歇根大学调查数据，这可能会引发新一轮的市场波动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着4月2日关税日来临，这一次的情况会有所不同吗？市场会反弹吗？据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普此前在国会联席会议上发表讲话时重申，将于4月2日开始征收对等关税。目前欧洲已经提出了让步，计划制定“让步清单”，而印度、英国也发出来示好信号，加拿大尚未发出相关信号。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股最大的空头：密歇根大学</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股最大的空头：密歇根大学\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-03-30 07:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3744193><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学通胀预期调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次下跌。美股遭遇“黑色星期五”，三大股指全线走低，其中纳指跌2.7%领跌，公用事业板块成为唯一收涨的板块。美股重挫背后的“罪魁祸首”是密歇根大学。受关税威胁冲击，美国3月密歇根大学短期通胀预期飙升至4.9%，长期通胀预期也升至1993年以来最高，同时消费者信心创逾两年新低。自从特朗普当选以来，“硬数据”—...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3744193\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cd37284d0b881857f632154756e4de3","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3744193","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2523663092","content_text":"自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学通胀预期调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次下跌。美股遭遇“黑色星期五”，三大股指全线走低，其中纳指跌2.7%领跌，公用事业板块成为唯一收涨的板块。美股重挫背后的“罪魁祸首”是密歇根大学。受关税威胁冲击，美国3月密歇根大学短期通胀预期飙升至4.9%，长期通胀预期也升至1993年以来最高，同时消费者信心创逾两年新低。自从特朗普当选以来，“硬数据”——即实际的经济数值——一直保持稳定。然而，在过去的三个月中，美国通胀“软数据”（基于调查和市场的通胀预期指标）急剧恶化，密歇根大学的消费者情绪调查是这种软数据暴跌的主要驱动力之一。值得一提的是，不仅仅是本次，自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次抛售。最近几次的密歇根消费者调查表明，美国通胀预期已突破近年来的区间波动。此前相当长时间，密歇根5年通胀预期大体在2.9%-3.1%的窄幅波动区间。2022年6月美国通胀处于本轮峰值之际，该通胀预期初值一度达到3.3%，创下2008年以来的最高，而最新的长期通胀预期已显著高于疫情后的峰值水平。对于密歇根大学消费者长期通胀预期的飙升，此前美联储主席鲍威尔称，该通胀预期数据属于异常值。不过本周有几名票委“唱反调”，认为调查类的通胀预期数据应高度关注。鸽派票委、芝加哥联储主席表示，如果市场通胀预期也走高，将是“重大危险信号”。高盛则直言不讳地指出，投资者可以忽略密歇根大学的通胀预期数据。与其他调查相比，密歇根大学的调查在设计上存在诸多局限性。该调查的三个主要问题是：通胀预期高度党派化：调查中的通胀预期已经变得极端党派化。民主党人占比过高：参与密歇根大学调查的受访者中，民主党人的比例一直高于共和党人。调查方式改变：从电话调查转向在线调查导致了对通胀预期的更极端的回答。高盛认为，这些因素共同推动密歇根大学的短期通胀预期约1.3个百分点，长期通胀预期约0.5个百分点。特别是党派构成变化和党派立场加剧，在2月导致一年期通胀预期大幅上升了1个百分点。展望未来，投资者需要密切关注即将于4月11日和25日公布的密歇根大学调查数据，这可能会引发新一轮的市场波动。随着4月2日关税日来临，这一次的情况会有所不同吗？市场会反弹吗？据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普此前在国会联席会议上发表讲话时重申，将于4月2日开始征收对等关税。目前欧洲已经提出了让步，计划制定“让步清单”，而印度、英国也发出来示好信号，加拿大尚未发出相关信号。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":1.1,".IXIC":1.1,".DJI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}