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拓拔野
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拓拔野
拓拔野
·
02-18
小米喂养出来了不少上市公司
小米喂单，养大了一个“鹿客”
小米出钱、喂订单，终于养大了做智能锁的鹿客科技。通过软件技术优势，拿下了一家长租公寓头部企业的订单，在中国智能锁行业初步站稳了脚跟。2017年，公司推出“鹿客”品牌，1699元的价格，以性价比的打法，快速打开C端市场。小米旗下天津金米，虽然只持有鹿客科技1.75%股权，但小米对公司的发展至关重要。期间，公司自有品牌业务收入占比逐年降低。来自小米ODM业务的增长，推动了鹿客科技的业绩提升。
小米喂单，养大了一个“鹿客”
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拓拔野
拓拔野
·
02-05
$叮咚买菜(DDL)$
利好出尽
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拓拔野
拓拔野
·
01-26
$小米集团-W(01810)$
小米手机部的人才还是太少了
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拓拔野
拓拔野
·
2025-12-09
$小米集团-W(01810)$
回40以下，再接点
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拓拔野
拓拔野
·
2025-12-08
$泡泡玛特(09992)$
原来被人做空了
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拓拔野
拓拔野
·
2025-12-08
$小米集团-W(01810)$
熟悉的套路，1，舆论开始针对了。2，做空开始动了。看来每次都通过这种事情赚到钱，认为这种方式行之有效，可以长期使用
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拓拔野
拓拔野
·
2025-12-02
赛力斯的利润是真高
高管回应小米成毛利率提升最快车企：没有在毛利率上对谁发起冲击的打算
快科技12月2日消息，2025年第三季度已上市新势力车企毛利率表现上，小米增速最快，而公司高管也是正面回应。小米集团董事长特别助理、战略市场部副总经理徐洁云回应：“小米没有在毛利率上对谁发起冲击的打算。另，我们在Q3财报发布时说过，预期明年汽车业务毛利率会有下降。”按照之前小米公布的财报，旗下汽车毛利率增长显著，从2024年一季度的15.6%上升至2025年三季度的25.5%，成为主流品牌中毛利率提升最快的车企。
高管回应小米成毛利率提升最快车企：没有在毛利率上对谁发起冲击的打算
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拓拔野
拓拔野
·
2025-12-02
你在说什么？？？月产5000万只？？？
月产5000万只！当Labubu不再稀缺，泡泡玛特拿什么接棒？
德银警告，泡泡玛特正在遭遇“可获得性悖论”（Availability Paradox）。随着产能极其激进地扩张至年底的月产5000万个，Labubu正从稀缺的潮流IP迅速沦为大众消费品，对于依赖“酷”和“稀缺”属性的潮流玩具而言，这种普及往往是热度衰退的前兆。如果Labubu热度在2026年见顶且无新爆款接力（熊市情景），届时泡泡玛特估值压力将陡增。
月产5000万只！当Labubu不再稀缺，泡泡玛特拿什么接棒？
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拓拔野
拓拔野
·
2025-11-25
$谷歌(GOOG)$
买入了，Gemini 3真的太猛了。不论现在是什么价格，我都建议买入
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拓拔野
拓拔野
·
2025-11-21
$禾赛(HSAI)$
真要奔10块走了
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SONY\">索尼</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>担任技术工作。从大厂辞职创业，加入智能硬件赛道，究竟是做2B还是2C的产品，合伙人之间也曾有过争论。</p><p>基于团队的技术背景，早期的云丁，最终选择了2B。通过软件<span>技术优势</span>，拿下了一家长租公寓头部企业的订单，在中国智能锁行业初步站稳了脚跟。</p><p>如今，自有品牌商业解决方案，仍是公司的重要业务板块之一。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260218095021135d163a473vho4a9b\"/><p>2017年，公司推出“鹿客”品牌，1699元的价格，以性价比的打法，快速打开C端市场。当年，仅一款产品就卖出了30万套，成为行业出货量最大的单品。借此，鹿客仅用1年时间，就实现了C端市场的10倍增长。公司顺势从云丁网络更名为鹿客科技。</p><p>随着中国智能锁市场的不断扩容，大量业内外玩家涌入其中，“千锁大战”一触即发。期间，鹿客因为没有及时抓住<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、直播电商等新渠道的机会，早期建立起来的C端优势，一度被传统厂商超越。后来，果断向高端转型，终于重新夺回了市场份额。</p><p>招股书披露，公司是全球首家率先实现静脉智能锁规模化量产的企业。于2024年，公司静脉智能锁出货量全球第一，市场份额约10.5%；智能锁整体出货量全球第四，市场份额约为2.6%。2024年，公司在中国内地的智能锁出货量为120万套，排名第三，市场份额为5.8%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260218095039078d163i02bp56baxf\"/><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/81810\">小米</a>撑起半边天</strong></p><p>鹿客创业早期，虽然中国的创投市场火热，但很多市场化的投资机构，对智能锁赛道的投资热情并不高。</p><p>此前，陈彬在接受媒体采访时透露，他作为CEO，除了做产品，另一个最重要的工作就是融资。2014年-2018年，他大约见了300个投资机构，几乎把当时市面上能见的投资机构都见过了。</p><p>2014年7月，公司拿下<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300648\">星云</a>创盟和杭州险峰的首轮融资，分别为160万元和107万元，投后估值约1300万元。</p><p>其后，公司密集融资，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">联想</a>、美的、小米、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度</a>等相继投资。据招股书显示，鹿客创立以来，融资几乎没有停止过，期间，累计从一级市场拿到资金近10亿元。</p><p>2025年11月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000931\">中关村</a>科学城科技成长三期基金，投入2亿元拿下鹿客科技5.71%股权，公司投后估值约35亿元。</p><p>目前，创始人陈彬直接持有鹿客科技15.33%股权，为单一第一大股东，并通过多家机构，合计控制公司约30.35%股权；百度参与了公司多轮融资，持有18.43%股权，为第二大股东；顺为持股7.25%，为第三大外部机构股东。</p><p>小米旗下天津金米，虽然只持有鹿客科技1.75%股权，但小米对公司的发展至关重要。</p><p>鹿客科技的收入，主要靠销售鹿客品牌智能锁及AI智能管家；为品牌公司提供ODM服务；提供云丁品牌商业解决方案。</p><p>2023年-2024年，公司超过一半的收入，来自ODM代工，2025年前9个月，ODM项目收入更是高达61.6%。期间，公司自有品牌业务收入占比逐年降低。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260218095040771d163yzfncyrbp1g\"/><p>2019年，小米推出自有品牌智能锁，就是由鹿客代工。</p><p>2023年-2024年及2025年前9个月，小米均为鹿客科技绝对的第一大客户，分别贡献了公司各期收入的48.6%、51.7%和60.6%。</p><p>来自小米ODM业务的增长，推动了鹿客科技的业绩提升。报告期内，公司收入分别为10.15亿元、10.86亿元和7.74亿元；<span>净利润</span>分别为1402.6万元、5311.3万元和3198.1万元。</p><p>虽然，鹿客科技的业绩看似稳步增长，但从招股书反映出的财务数据来看，这一增长并不算太健康。</p><p>报告期内，公司经营性现金流持续下降，分别为8948.5万元、124.7万元和-3830.7万元；应收账款规模持续攀升、周转效率迅速降低，周转天数分别为70天、83天及101天；公司逾期应收贸易款规模持续攀升，分别为1209.1万元、2501.2万元和4850.4万元。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260218095053847d163amlokgpl2oh\"/><p>当下，中国的“千锁大战”远没有到停战的时候，智能锁行业参与者众多、市场分散的情况突出。未来，随着行业竞争的进一步加剧，洗牌在所难免。</p><p>鹿客科技如果不能扩大自有品牌在C端市场的规模和影响力，即便能长期拿下小米的ODM订单，资本市场对其的估值逻辑，也只能是代工商。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小米喂单，养大了一个“鹿客”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小米喂单，养大了一个“鹿客”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-18 09:50 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260218095058a705c75e&s=b><strong>斑马消费</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>小米出钱、喂订单，终于养大了做智能锁的鹿客科技。日前，该公司向港交所递表，正式向资本市场发起冲击，意欲成为“AI智能锁第一股”。虽然，鹿客科技的年营收已稳定在10亿元规模，在静脉智能锁细分市场也已做到了全球第一，但其业务结构相对单一、对小米重度依赖、自有品牌不强等诸多问题，仍值得公司管理层和投资者充分重视。十年成就智能锁老三2014年，云丁网络创立，在创始人陈彬的带领下，闯入中国方兴未艾的智能锁...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260218095058a705c75e&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81810":"小米集团-WR","LU1303224171.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1961090484.USD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2257852520.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Asia Growth A (acc) SGD","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1105468828.SGD":"Allianz Total Return Asian Equity AM DIS H2-SGD","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) 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17:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"高管回应小米成毛利率提升最快车企：没有在毛利率上对谁发起冲击的打算","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2588001039","media":"快科技","summary":"快科技12月2日消息，2025年第三季度已上市新势力车企毛利率表现上，小米增速最快，而公司高管也是正面回应。小米集团董事长特别助理、战略市场部副总经理徐洁云回应：“小米没有在毛利率上对谁发起冲击的打算。另，我们在Q3财报发布时说过，预期明年汽车业务毛利率会有下降。”按照之前小米公布的财报，旗下汽车毛利率增长显著，从2024年一季度的15.6%上升至2025年三季度的25.5%，成为主流品牌中毛利率提升最快的车企。","content":"<html><body><article><p>快科技12月2日消息，2025年第三季度已上市新势力车企毛利率表现上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>增速最快，而公司高管也是正面回应。</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米</a>集团董事长特别助理、战略市场部副总经理徐洁云回应：“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/81810\">小米</a>没有在毛利率上对谁发起冲击的打算。另，我们在Q3财报发布时说过，预期明年汽车业务毛利率会有下降。”</strong></p><p>按照之前小米公布的财报，旗下汽车毛利率增长显著，从2024年一季度的15.6%上升至2025年三季度的25.5%，成为主流品牌中毛利率提升最快的车企。</p><p>当然了，在已上市的新势力品牌中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">赛力斯</a>以30%的毛利率领跑行业，成为本季度唯一突破30%大关的品牌。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>和小鹏的毛利率分别是19.8%、14.7%和13.1%，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZK\">极氪</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09863\">零跑</a>毛利率亦逐步增长，2025年三季度分别达到15.6%和14.5%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251202175615781d1529bjjen9y0fg\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高管回应小米成毛利率提升最快车企：没有在毛利率上对谁发起冲击的打算</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高管回应小米成毛利率提升最快车企：没有在毛利率上对谁发起冲击的打算\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-02 17:50 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251202175619a4c7cf2b&s=b><strong>快科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>快科技12月2日消息，2025年第三季度已上市新势力车企毛利率表现上，小米增速最快，而公司高管也是正面回应。小米集团董事长特别助理、战略市场部副总经理徐洁云回应：“小米没有在毛利率上对谁发起冲击的打算。另，我们在Q3财报发布时说过，预期明年汽车业务毛利率会有下降。”按照之前小米公布的财报，旗下汽车毛利率增长显著，从2024年一季度的15.6%上升至2025年三季度的25.5%，成为主流品牌中毛利率...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251202175619a4c7cf2b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81810":"小米集团-WR","LU1328277881.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH FUND \"AA\" (USD) INC","BK1615":"港股-互联网","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","SG9999003461.SGD":"United Asia Pacific Infrastructure SGD","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","BK1589":"北水核心资产","LU0449515922.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"PC\" (USD)ACC","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","LU1981816686.USD":"EASTSPRING INV ASIAN MULTI FACTOR EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0054450605.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKTS EQ \"AD\" INC","09927":"赛力斯","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","LU0456846285.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Greater China A (acc) SGD","HXXD.SI":"Xiaomi HK SDR 2to1","LU1770036033.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251202175619a4c7cf2b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2588001039","content_text":"快科技12月2日消息，2025年第三季度已上市新势力车企毛利率表现上，小米增速最快，而公司高管也是正面回应。小米集团董事长特别助理、战略市场部副总经理徐洁云回应：“小米没有在毛利率上对谁发起冲击的打算。另，我们在Q3财报发布时说过，预期明年汽车业务毛利率会有下降。”按照之前小米公布的财报，旗下汽车毛利率增长显著，从2024年一季度的15.6%上升至2025年三季度的25.5%，成为主流品牌中毛利率提升最快的车企。当然了，在已上市的新势力品牌中，赛力斯以30%的毛利率领跑行业，成为本季度唯一突破30%大关的品牌。理想、蔚来和小鹏的毛利率分别是19.8%、14.7%和13.1%，而极氪、零跑毛利率亦逐步增长，2025年三季度分别达到15.6%和14.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.6,"XIACY":0.6,"MIUmain":0.6,"02015":0.9,"09927":0.9,"01810":1.5,"HXXD.SI":0.6,"09868":0.9,"09866":0.9,"09863":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":506526814814376,"gmtCreate":1764639800445,"gmtModify":1764639802707,"author":{"id":"3481148797461826","authorId":"3481148797461826","name":"拓拔野","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67a9593b78528172ba5efe083bc70fd7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3481148797461826","idStr":"3481148797461826"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"你在说什么？？？月产5000万只？？？","listText":"你在说什么？？？月产5000万只？？？","text":"你在说什么？？？月产5000万只？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/506526814814376","repostId":"2588749538","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2588749538","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1764571787,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2588749538?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-01 14:49","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"月产5000万只！当Labubu不再稀缺，泡泡玛特拿什么接棒？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2588749538","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"德银警告，泡泡玛特正在遭遇“可获得性悖论”（Availability Paradox）。随着产能极其激进地扩张至年底的月产5000万个，Labubu正从稀缺的潮流IP迅速沦为大众消费品，对于依赖“酷”和“稀缺”属性的潮流玩具而言，这种普及往往是热度衰退的前兆。如果Labubu热度在2026年见顶且无新爆款接力（熊市情景），届时泡泡玛特估值压力将陡增。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>德银警告，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>正在遭遇“可获得性悖论”（Availability Paradox）。随着产能极其激进地扩张至年底的月产5000万个，Labubu正从稀缺的潮流IP迅速沦为大众消费品，稀缺性溢价的消失将直接打击其时尚属性和二级市场价格。</p><p>据追风交易台消息，德银在12月1日的报告中表示，市场习惯于根据2025年的爆发式增长线性推导未来，但当前由Labubu推动的强劲增长掩盖了泡泡玛特供需反转的巨大风险。</p><p>如果Labubu热度在2026年见顶且无新爆款接力（熊市情景），届时泡泡玛特估值压力将陡增。基于2025年预期的市盈率（18x/20x），德银分析师给予泡泡玛特持有评级，港股目标价228港元，</p><h2 id=\"id_907308799\">产能狂飙与稀缺性的终结：从1000万到5000万</h2><p>德银认为，泡泡玛特正在进行一场危险的赌博：用稀缺性换取短期收入规模。为了满足激增的需求，泡泡玛特的产能已从上半年的月均约1000万个，疯狂拉升至年底的月均5000万个。</p><p>这一举措虽然将在2025年带来约为145亿人民币的调整后净利润，但也不仅解决了供应瓶颈，更制造了“可获得性悖论”。曾经的一货难求变成了随处可见，Labubu正从供应受限的“时尚单品”转变为“大众商品”。</p><p>德银警告，<strong>对于依赖“酷”和“稀缺”属性的潮流玩具而言，这种普及往往是热度衰退的前兆。</strong></p><p>作为衡量IP热度最敏感的晴雨表，二级市场价格已发出预警。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c60a5e0a67e697efea2540eb2836afb2\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"381\"/></p><p>自2025年8月以来，随着供应洪峰的到来，Labubu及其他热门IP的溢价全线溃退：</p><blockquote><p>溢价腰斩： 热门的Labubu“隐藏款”溢价缩水超过50%。</p><p>现货破发： Labubu 3.0和4.0的常规款在“千岛”或“闲鱼”上的挂牌价已跌破官方零售价。</p><p>具体案例： Labubu 1.0 “Exciting Macaron” 隐藏款价格自峰值下跌50%；Labubu 3.0 “Love” 款自峰值下跌81%；Crypto Wild but Cutie 系列隐藏款甚至下跌了100%。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a3bcd330a0741e1a01216ee825211b8e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"588\"/></p><p>当黄牛无利可图，收藏者发现甚至可以原价在电商平台买到时，恐慌性的囤货需求将瞬间消失，进而反噬一级市场销量。</p><h2 id=\"id_1754946526\">海外市场：从“排队抢购”到“货架积压”</h2><p><strong>海外市场的热度同样面临考验。在2025年中期，消费者需要排队数小时或预订数月才能买到Labubu，这种稀缺性曾将海外单店坪效推至奢侈品级别。</strong></p><p>然而，最新的渠道检查显示情况已发生根本逆转。在美国、英国、澳大利亚等主要市场，无论是泡泡玛特官网还是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>，曾经紧俏的Labubu、Crybaby等产品现在均显示“有货”（Yes）。</p><p>与此同时，Labubu在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>上的搜索热度自2025年中期以来持续下降。这意味着新用户的关注度正在降低，而货源却源源不断，这一剪刀差将不可避免地导致单店生产力下降。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1adc352d27dd5dc2cf88578883fd6fe8\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"578\"/></p><p>更令投资者担忧的是新品发布的市场反馈。近期推出的“Labubu Mini”和“The Monsters 1 a.m.”系列遭遇了滑铁卢：</p><blockquote><p>销售放缓： 11月7日发布的“The Monsters 1 a.m.”系列（原价79元人民币）未能像以前那样瞬间售罄。</p><p>即刻打折： 新品发布后几乎立即在二级市场出现折扣，价格跌破发行价。</p><p>口碑分化： 社交媒体上关于设计和质量的负面评价增多。</p></blockquote><p><strong>这表明消费者对LabubuIP可能已产生“时尚疲劳”，单纯依靠增加供应量已无法掩盖产品吸引力的下降。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2777540085\">估值情景推演：13倍还是23倍？</h2><p>德银维持泡泡玛特“持有”评级，目标价228港元。鉴于Labubu热度走势的不确定性，德银给出了截然不同的两种估值情景：</p><blockquote><p>熊市情景（Bear Case）：</p><p>假设Labubu热度在2026年见顶下滑，且无新IP接棒。预计2026年中国收入同比下降20%，海外收入下降10%。这将导致2026年净利润降至106亿人民币（RMB 10.6 billion），隐含市盈率将升至23倍，估值压力巨大。</p><p>牛市情景（Bull Case）：</p><p>假设增长势头持续且新IP爆发。中国收入增长30%，海外增长50%。2026年净利润将超过231亿人民币（RMB 23.1 billion），隐含市盈率降至13倍，股票将迎来重新评级。</p></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>月产5000万只！当Labubu不再稀缺，泡泡玛特拿什么接棒？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n月产5000万只！当Labubu不再稀缺，泡泡玛特拿什么接棒？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-01 14:49 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760437><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>德银警告，泡泡玛特正在遭遇“可获得性悖论”（Availability Paradox）。随着产能极其激进地扩张至年底的月产5000万个，Labubu正从稀缺的潮流IP迅速沦为大众消费品，稀缺性溢价的消失将直接打击其时尚属性和二级市场价格。据追风交易台消息，德银在12月1日的报告中表示，市场习惯于根据2025年的爆发式增长线性推导未来，但当前由Labubu推动的强劲增长掩盖了泡泡玛特供需反转的巨大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760437\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bc5fa21dc722683081d628ec61f0fd6f","relate_stocks":{"BK1224":"专卖店","09992":"泡泡玛特"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760437","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2588749538","content_text":"德银警告，泡泡玛特正在遭遇“可获得性悖论”（Availability Paradox）。随着产能极其激进地扩张至年底的月产5000万个，Labubu正从稀缺的潮流IP迅速沦为大众消费品，稀缺性溢价的消失将直接打击其时尚属性和二级市场价格。据追风交易台消息，德银在12月1日的报告中表示，市场习惯于根据2025年的爆发式增长线性推导未来，但当前由Labubu推动的强劲增长掩盖了泡泡玛特供需反转的巨大风险。如果Labubu热度在2026年见顶且无新爆款接力（熊市情景），届时泡泡玛特估值压力将陡增。基于2025年预期的市盈率（18x/20x），德银分析师给予泡泡玛特持有评级，港股目标价228港元，产能狂飙与稀缺性的终结：从1000万到5000万德银认为，泡泡玛特正在进行一场危险的赌博：用稀缺性换取短期收入规模。为了满足激增的需求，泡泡玛特的产能已从上半年的月均约1000万个，疯狂拉升至年底的月均5000万个。这一举措虽然将在2025年带来约为145亿人民币的调整后净利润，但也不仅解决了供应瓶颈，更制造了“可获得性悖论”。曾经的一货难求变成了随处可见，Labubu正从供应受限的“时尚单品”转变为“大众商品”。德银警告，对于依赖“酷”和“稀缺”属性的潮流玩具而言，这种普及往往是热度衰退的前兆。作为衡量IP热度最敏感的晴雨表，二级市场价格已发出预警。自2025年8月以来，随着供应洪峰的到来，Labubu及其他热门IP的溢价全线溃退：溢价腰斩： 热门的Labubu“隐藏款”溢价缩水超过50%。现货破发： Labubu 3.0和4.0的常规款在“千岛”或“闲鱼”上的挂牌价已跌破官方零售价。具体案例： Labubu 1.0 “Exciting Macaron” 隐藏款价格自峰值下跌50%；Labubu 3.0 “Love” 款自峰值下跌81%；Crypto Wild but Cutie 系列隐藏款甚至下跌了100%。当黄牛无利可图，收藏者发现甚至可以原价在电商平台买到时，恐慌性的囤货需求将瞬间消失，进而反噬一级市场销量。海外市场：从“排队抢购”到“货架积压”海外市场的热度同样面临考验。在2025年中期，消费者需要排队数小时或预订数月才能买到Labubu，这种稀缺性曾将海外单店坪效推至奢侈品级别。然而，最新的渠道检查显示情况已发生根本逆转。在美国、英国、澳大利亚等主要市场，无论是泡泡玛特官网还是亚马逊，曾经紧俏的Labubu、Crybaby等产品现在均显示“有货”（Yes）。与此同时，Labubu在谷歌上的搜索热度自2025年中期以来持续下降。这意味着新用户的关注度正在降低，而货源却源源不断，这一剪刀差将不可避免地导致单店生产力下降。更令投资者担忧的是新品发布的市场反馈。近期推出的“Labubu Mini”和“The Monsters 1 a.m.”系列遭遇了滑铁卢：销售放缓： 11月7日发布的“The Monsters 1 a.m.”系列（原价79元人民币）未能像以前那样瞬间售罄。即刻打折： 新品发布后几乎立即在二级市场出现折扣，价格跌破发行价。口碑分化： 社交媒体上关于设计和质量的负面评价增多。这表明消费者对LabubuIP可能已产生“时尚疲劳”，单纯依靠增加供应量已无法掩盖产品吸引力的下降。估值情景推演：13倍还是23倍？德银维持泡泡玛特“持有”评级，目标价228港元。鉴于Labubu热度走势的不确定性，德银给出了截然不同的两种估值情景：熊市情景（Bear Case）：假设Labubu热度在2026年见顶下滑，且无新IP接棒。预计2026年中国收入同比下降20%，海外收入下降10%。这将导致2026年净利润降至106亿人民币（RMB 10.6 billion），隐含市盈率将升至23倍，估值压力巨大。牛市情景（Bull Case）：假设增长势头持续且新IP爆发。中国收入增长30%，海外增长50%。2026年净利润将超过231亿人民币（RMB 23.1 billion），隐含市盈率降至13倍，股票将迎来重新评级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":503982241968144,"gmtCreate":1764076375550,"gmtModify":1764076377561,"author":{"id":"3481148797461826","authorId":"3481148797461826","name":"拓拔野","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67a9593b78528172ba5efe083bc70fd7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3481148797461826","idStr":"3481148797461826"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$ </a> 买入了，Gemini 3真的太猛了。不论现在是什么价格，我都建议买入","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$ </a> 买入了，Gemini 3真的太猛了。不论现在是什么价格，我都建议买入","text":"$谷歌(GOOG)$ 买入了，Gemini 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真要奔10块走了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502458639118752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}