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- 果冻ss果冻ss
  ·2021-11-17
  分析师全部，都是扯，全部都是
  市场在下注：美联储已经犯错
  最近市场传达了一个信号：美联储将会比它自己认为的更早、更快地加息，但同时，美联储会犯一个错误，即过快地加息。从过去几周到近几日，无论是美债收益率曲线迅速平坦化（加息预期升温推动短期利率上行）：还
  市场在下注：美联储已经犯错
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- 果冻ss果冻ss
  ·2021-03-09
  苹果CFO：“马上跳槽去苹果”
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,102 评论
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- 果冻ss果冻ss
  ·2019-12-12
  $蔚来(NIO)$为什么蔚来服务亏损那么严重还要继续保持这个服务？因为必须这样才能维持不多的卖点。很多车主故意薅羊毛，比如：车辆维修如果不提供代步车就会每天有补贴，车主经常询问有没有代步车，没有就来修车，骗补贴，毕竟做漆免费。
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- 果冻ss果冻ss
  ·2019-11-13
  $蔚来(NIO)$蔚来是我第一支做空的股票，赚了部iPhone，今晚赚一点就彻底拜拜。回到长期持有上来.. 一支好股票胜过操作猛如虎，苹果亚马逊微软都涨了50%了，一年多前买的。做波段真浪费时间
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15:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场在下注：美联储已经犯错","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2183066180","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"最近市场传达了一个信号：美联储将会比它自己认为的更早、更快地加息，但同时，美联储会犯一个错误，即过快地加息。\n从过去几周到近几日，无论是美债收益率曲线迅速平坦化（加息预期升温推动短期利率上行）：\n\n还","content":"<p>最近市场传达了一个信号：美联储将会比它自己认为的更早、更快地加息，但同时，美联储会犯一个错误，即过快地加息。</p>\n<p>从过去几周到近几日，无论是美债收益率曲线迅速平坦化（加息预期升温推动短期利率上行）：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b37112d562ccfc78f9129ab8b8dc4c95\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>还是在10月CPI数据显示美国通胀飙升后，“空头”激情再次高涨，市场对于美联储明年7月前加息的预期飙升：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a56ce19fcf707a562520f91f6a9b8c\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>以及市场对于明年底前加息次数的预期大涨（2022年将不止加息一次，7月之后的加息轨迹将加速，预计到2022年底将加息2.5次）：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74bc816f2408f45cdaa417b3ce3dd8d0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>都在表明，市场认为美联储未来加息的时间和速度会远快于美联储自己的说法。</b></p>\n<p>今年9月，美联储政策制定者对利率走势做出预测时，他们对明年的走势产生了分歧：一半成员认为他们会将隔夜利率的目标区间维持在接近零的水平，其余大多数成员认为他们会将目标提高0.25个百分点。</p>\n<p>而从美联储主席鲍威尔在11月会议后的讲话来看，现在可能有更多决策者倾向于加息25个基点。</p>\n<p>此外，芝商所“美联储观察”工具显示，美联储在明年年底前将目标区间至少上调50个基点的可能性为83%。而在美联储9月份的会议之后，这个概率只有22%。</p>\n<p>亚特兰大联储银行的一个模型也显示，到2023年最后一个季度，市场预计美联储隔夜利率的平均水平将在1.4%左右，而9月公布的显示委员会成员预期的点阵图显示，美联储2023年底的预测中值为1%。</p>\n<h2>利率期货显示美联储2023年之后会加息过快</h2>\n<p>但在2023年之后，利率期货的情况则有所不同。长期利率维持在低位，10年期美债最近的收益率为1.58%。长期利率本应反映投资者对未来几年平均隔夜利率的预期。</p>\n<p>旧金山联储银行基于美债收益率和“期限溢价”估计的模型，将隔夜利率在2024年底设定在1.4%左右，并一直维持到2031年。</p>\n<p>相比之下，到2024年底，美联储点阵图显示的隔夜利率目标将升至1.75%。从更长期（longer term）来看，这一比例将升至2.5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fffec940dcc201f03def9ce65bfb471\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>对此的一种解释是，市场认为美联储将加息以应对通胀持续上升，但结果拖累经济，美联储将达不到就业和长期通胀目标。</p>\n<p>换句话说，市场认为，美联储政策制定者应该坚持自己的预测，缓慢加息。但美联储会犯一个错误，即过快地加息。</p>\n<p>同时，<b>市场似乎暗示美联储将在2024年至2026年之间的某个时间重新实施量化宽松政策</b>——毕竟2024年是选举年。</p>\n<p>如果这看起来有些牵强，那么值得注意的是，美联储政策预期对利率市场的影响并不是绝对的。</p>\n<p>正如华尔街日报所指出的：</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>在利率走向方面，市场可能比任何一位预测者或美联储都更聪明。</b>不幸的是，要弄清楚市场想说什么并不容易。\n</blockquote>\n<p>话说回来，在民主党即将迎来一个非常不乐观的中期选举之前，美联储是否真的会像市场预期的那样在明年7月及之后持续加息？</p>\n<p>分析人士怀疑，市场本身低估了美联储对于市场恶化的恐慌程度，即<b>如果市场恶化过快，将出现一个更为鸽派的美联储。</b></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场在下注：美联储已经犯错</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场在下注：美联储已经犯错\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-16 15:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3645032><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最近市场传达了一个信号：美联储将会比它自己认为的更早、更快地加息，但同时，美联储会犯一个错误，即过快地加息。\n从过去几周到近几日，无论是美债收益率曲线迅速平坦化（加息预期升温推动短期利率上行）：\n\n还是在10月CPI数据显示美国通胀飙升后，“空头”激情再次高涨，市场对于美联储明年7月前加息的预期飙升：\n\n以及市场对于明年底前加息次数的预期大涨（2022年将不止加息一次，7月之后的加息轨迹将加速，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3645032\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3645032","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2183066180","content_text":"最近市场传达了一个信号：美联储将会比它自己认为的更早、更快地加息，但同时，美联储会犯一个错误，即过快地加息。\n从过去几周到近几日，无论是美债收益率曲线迅速平坦化（加息预期升温推动短期利率上行）：\n\n还是在10月CPI数据显示美国通胀飙升后，“空头”激情再次高涨，市场对于美联储明年7月前加息的预期飙升：\n\n以及市场对于明年底前加息次数的预期大涨（2022年将不止加息一次，7月之后的加息轨迹将加速，预计到2022年底将加息2.5次）：\n\n都在表明，市场认为美联储未来加息的时间和速度会远快于美联储自己的说法。\n今年9月，美联储政策制定者对利率走势做出预测时，他们对明年的走势产生了分歧：一半成员认为他们会将隔夜利率的目标区间维持在接近零的水平，其余大多数成员认为他们会将目标提高0.25个百分点。\n而从美联储主席鲍威尔在11月会议后的讲话来看，现在可能有更多决策者倾向于加息25个基点。\n此外，芝商所“美联储观察”工具显示，美联储在明年年底前将目标区间至少上调50个基点的可能性为83%。而在美联储9月份的会议之后，这个概率只有22%。\n亚特兰大联储银行的一个模型也显示，到2023年最后一个季度，市场预计美联储隔夜利率的平均水平将在1.4%左右，而9月公布的显示委员会成员预期的点阵图显示，美联储2023年底的预测中值为1%。\n利率期货显示美联储2023年之后会加息过快\n但在2023年之后，利率期货的情况则有所不同。长期利率维持在低位，10年期美债最近的收益率为1.58%。长期利率本应反映投资者对未来几年平均隔夜利率的预期。\n旧金山联储银行基于美债收益率和“期限溢价”估计的模型，将隔夜利率在2024年底设定在1.4%左右，并一直维持到2031年。\n相比之下，到2024年底，美联储点阵图显示的隔夜利率目标将升至1.75%。从更长期（longer term）来看，这一比例将升至2.5%。\n\n对此的一种解释是，市场认为美联储将加息以应对通胀持续上升，但结果拖累经济，美联储将达不到就业和长期通胀目标。\n换句话说，市场认为，美联储政策制定者应该坚持自己的预测，缓慢加息。但美联储会犯一个错误，即过快地加息。\n同时，市场似乎暗示美联储将在2024年至2026年之间的某个时间重新实施量化宽松政策——毕竟2024年是选举年。\n如果这看起来有些牵强，那么值得注意的是，美联储政策预期对利率市场的影响并不是绝对的。\n正如华尔街日报所指出的：\n\n在利率走向方面，市场可能比任何一位预测者或美联储都更聪明。不幸的是，要弄清楚市场想说什么并不容易。\n\n话说回来，在民主党即将迎来一个非常不乐观的中期选举之前，美联储是否真的会像市场预期的那样在明年7月及之后持续加息？\n分析人士怀疑，市场本身低估了美联储对于市场恶化的恐慌程度，即如果市场恶化过快，将出现一个更为鸽派的美联储。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":905,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":329533695,"gmtCreate":1615256642117,"gmtModify":1703486345550,"author":{"id":"3470974584712861","authorId":"3470974584712861","name":"果冻ss","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"苹果CFO：“马上跳槽去苹果”","listText":"苹果CFO：“马上跳槽去苹果”","text":"苹果CFO：“马上跳槽去苹果”","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329533695","repostId":"2118690205","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":910429141,"gmtCreate":1576130088883,"gmtModify":1704271299907,"author":{"id":"3470974584712861","authorId":"3470974584712861","name":"果冻ss","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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一支好股票胜过操作猛如虎，苹果亚马逊微软都涨了50%了，一年多前买的。做波段真浪费时间","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f7563ea47f8bf7bce614fcd102ac4d","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/935269071","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3502957791962617","authorId":"3502957791962617","name":"Octopusdavi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f68a677a3eb97a6d8f2d3e59fc38d4a5","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"看到多少","text":"看到多少","html":"看到多少"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}