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- bluefacerbluefacer
  ·2023-12-13
  美联储降息预期
  查看详情：美联储降息预期美联储降息预期加速升温，对市场有何影响？此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户
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  美联储降息预期
- bluefacerbluefacer
  ·2023-10-19
  这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
  公司百科：蔚来汽车
  公司百科：蔚来汽车
  1,830 评论
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- bluefacerbluefacer
  ·2023-06-19
  1
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,913 评论
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- bluefacerbluefacer
  ·2023-06-19
  111
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  2,709 评论
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- bluefacerbluefacer
  ·2023-06-19
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- bluefacerbluefacer
  ·2023-06-19
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- bluefacerbluefacer
  ·2023-06-16
  这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
  蔚来ET5旅行版发布会
  蔚来ET5旅行版发布会
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- bluefacerbluefacer
  ·2023-06-10
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  蔚来集团2023Q1业绩电话会议
  蔚来集团2023Q1业绩电话会议
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- bluefacerbluefacer
  ·2023-06-10
  这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
  蔚来集团2023Q1业绩电话会议
  蔚来集团2023Q1业绩电话会议
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- bluefacerbluefacer
  ·2023-04-09
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<a href=\"https://www.itigerup.com/marketing/ratecuts?actionID=df09b25a93c0fcfabc810aac6c145f09&amp;skin=1&amp;os=iOS&amp;account_id=949774&amp;utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=e7500eb4522347107ea8af3d4a3bc0c8&amp;invite=YKRVI&amp;lang=zh_CN\">美联储降息预期</a> 美联储降息预期加速升温，对市场有何影响？ 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","listText":"查看详情： <a href=\"https://www.itigerup.com/marketing/ratecuts?actionID=df09b25a93c0fcfabc810aac6c145f09&amp;skin=1&amp;os=iOS&amp;account_id=949774&amp;utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=e7500eb4522347107ea8af3d4a3bc0c8&amp;invite=YKRVI&amp;lang=zh_CN\">美联储降息预期</a> 美联储降息预期加速升温，对市场有何影响？ 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","text":"查看详情： 美联储降息预期 美联储降息预期加速升温，对市场有何影响？ 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff98eccfaff055c5a7c86bee57069e0c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/251672427515912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":231917128110328,"gmtCreate":1697650304662,"gmtModify":1697650305816,"author":{"id":"3460168506368575","authorId":"3460168506368575","name":"bluefacer","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2ea28f240bb6afd9518aba59c2db813","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3460168506368575","authorIdStr":"3460168506368575"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/231917128110328","repostId":"100163","repostType":12,"repost":{"id":100163,"title":"蔚来汽车","desc":"国产电动汽车制造公司","author":"小虎周报","cate_id":1,"img_url":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4af360aed204c106bbf8876fcaea6fd6","content":"<p><span>2014年成立至今，蔚来</span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\" target=\"_blank\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a></a><span>秉承了新型车企的特质，从发布英文品牌“NIO”、全新Logo，到量产车ES8首次揭开面纱、旗舰超跑蔚来EP9开启预售，这个过程仅耗时不到三年，成为进展最快的造车新势力企业。</span></p><p><span>除了专注造车外，蔚来还努力打造一站式汽车服务体验，蔚来体验中心NIO house、全球首创的电能服务体系NIO power等形成了未来自己的汽车生态系统。</span></p><h2><span>业务模式</span></h2><p><span>如今，国内新能源汽车公司如雨后春笋般出现，尽管每一家企业的商业逻辑不尽相同，但大多数依旧主打中低端市场，而蔚来汽车逐渐建立起独特的以服务用户为核心的商业模型，即“造车+用户+服务”。</span></p><h3><span><b>用户端</b></span><span>。</span></h3><p><span>蔚来汽车以汽车为中心，通过NIO APP连接起商家和用户，及时的进行分享和沟通，满足用户最及时的需求。</span></p><p><span></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e57bcae2d338510aa5de31b530e588f\" /><span></span></p><p><span>数据来源：NIO APP</span></p><h3><span><b>服务端。</b></span></h3><p><span>而在线下通过遍布全国各地的NIO house体验店，进一步提升了用户的行驶和购车体验。利用“涟漪模式”效应，即利用核心用户向其周边进行口碑传播，从无到有创造了自己的核心“死忠粉”，不断拓展用户群体。</span></p><p><span></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6252b40aa371b2ccc6993ddb34e53c26\" /><span></span></p><p><span>蔚来汽车目前提供的服务远超4s店，车主在体验过蔚来汽车的服务之后，也会极大的增加对于蔚来汽车的客户黏性。</span></p><p><span>在销售渠道方面，蔚来汽车效仿特斯拉的直营模式，通过官方app和直营专卖店进行销售，可以充分掌握用户数据，与用户形成良好的互动，并以此为基础构建蔚来汽车基于汽车的生态链。</span></p><p><span>但与特斯拉不同是，蔚来汽车电动汽车只是“入口”，就像腾讯以微信社交为入口做游戏，最终都是要为用户创造一个基于用户圈的生态系统。</span></p><h2><span><b>卖车+服务收入。</b></span></h2><h3><span>1.</span><span><b>卖车收入。</b></span></h3><p><span>目前ES8的补贴前售价44.80-54.80万元，若采用电池租赁方案，加上补贴，顶配车型在38万元。这个定价有别于国内其他新能源汽车公司的市场定位，很显然目标是中高端市场，利润率水平是相对较高的。</span><span><b>差异化竞争策略也是蔚来汽车的一大优势。</b></span></p><p><span></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c27756c54f5f25328b8c99d7db75830\" /><span></span></p><h3><span>2.</span><span><b>服务收入。</b></span></h3><p><span>服务收入相当可观，主要包括三个方面：电池租赁，能量无忧，服务无忧。电池租赁即ES8采用现在少付10万元、未来每个月多付1280元的电池租用政策，降低了购车门槛，同时缓解了电池可持续性问题，这与特斯拉采取的预售等策略截然相反，究其原因，是蔚来汽车的盈利和现金流压力并没有特斯拉那么大。而能量无忧与服务无忧都是在此基础上的增值服务。</span></p><h3><span>3.</span><span><b>换电模式的可行性与持续性。</b></span></h3><p><span>那么何谓换电模式？换电模式是通过更高昂的费用和缩小应用场景（车型）来换取更高的效率。</span><span><b>简而言之，就是将电池从汽车剥离</b></span><span>。</span></p><p><span></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d817653f4f6670ef44a7ca63f02707d7\" /></p><h3>4.<b>两面性</b></h3><p><span>优点是，消费者将不再需要100%支付电池价格，转而通过电池租用方案、购买换电套餐等方式，实现车辆的低成本拥有和使用，购车价格的减少无疑将降低消费者的购车门槛。</span></p><p><span>缺点是，电池占整车售价的比重是很高的，车企放弃电池销售对公司营收冲击很大，并且换电模式在实际应用起来会存在很多困难，由车企主导的换电模式很难形成统一的标准，规模有限，覆盖率很成问题。</span></p><p><span>此外，国家的现行补贴标准是按照电池续航里程和电池密度等指标设定的，如果采取车电价值分离模式，意味着无法再得到补贴，在补贴尚未完全退出的时候推广这项模式，企业将更加难以控制成本。</span></p><p><span>最早推出换电模式的公司是Better Place，最终由于投资成本过高、发展过于缓慢而宣布破产。特斯拉也大力推行过换电模式，最终也因昂贵的价格和糟糕的服务体验而收场。蔚来将换电模式作为主要一个差异化竞争的策略，这种模式能持续多久还不得而知。</span></p><h2><span>行业分析</span></h2><p><span>中国新能源汽车产销量已连续三年居世界首位，从产业规模来看，2009年中国新能源汽车产销不足500辆，2018年预计将达到150万辆，近几年维持高增速增长。</span></p><p><span>根据中国汽车工业协会的数据显示，1－6月累计销售新能汽车约41.2万辆，同比增长112％。其中，造车新势力的销量为4544辆，仅占比1.3%。</span></p><p><span></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dc9108a5558cf5348f6a9a055edaa8a\" /><span></span></p><p><span>车道越宽，竞争当然更加激烈。这种竞争既来自传统燃油车、新能源车企，也来自国外的新能源汽车品牌，并且，目前我国新能源汽车与传统燃油车没有明显的竞争优势，与国际上先进的新能源汽车也仍然有较大差距。</span></p><p><span></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6c9daa6080019175f084fec4498324f\" /><span></span></p><p><span></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2abbbc529c6a8731fff91a299c01ea84\" /><span></span></p><p><span>需注意的是，上半年有销量的造车新势力只有云度新能源汽车、电咖汽车以及小鹏汽车，而此前业内呼声比较高的蔚来汽车和威马汽车虽然旗下的新车已经上市且有订单，但此次公布的销量数据中并没有出现。上文中提到，截止8月28日，蔚来一共生产出2200台ES8，已交付1381台。</span></p><p><span>要知道，2017年全年特斯拉在华销量为1.49万辆，也仅占中国纯电动汽车市场份额的3%，其在华营收占全球总营收的17%，对于刚刚量产的蔚来汽车来说可谓路漫漫其修远兮。</span></p><p><span>然而，特斯拉在华全系车型价格大涨会对其在华销量造成不利影响，而这对国内中高档新能源汽车是个利好机会，蔚来汽车正是瞄准了国内中高端市场的空当。</span></p><h2><span>热门车型参数</span></h2><p><span></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/453dcd8e715efa96c17bcfd5f1944d10\" /><span></span></p><p><span>不论是车型定位还是价格区间，差异化竞争一直是蔚来汽车的核心观念。尤其是定价，国产新能源汽车价格一般是从20-30万不等，或者更低。特斯拉牢牢占据着高端市场，而蔚来选择进军40-50万的中端市场还是相对明智的。</span></p><h2>财务事件</h2><p>2019年9月24日蔚来汽车发布19Q2财报，在营收超预期（15.08亿元vs预期13.09亿元）的情况下，亏损较去年同期增长83%至32.85亿美元（vs预期29.44亿元），成本超支、业务现金流低于预期等因素导致蔚来股价于财报当日暴跌20%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4efe90460179eb9cd64db5e597b36b\" /></p><p>李斌表示，公司将不得不在今年年底前完成全球裁员2,000人，并对公司将进行更多重组，一些非核心业务将被剥离，以控制现金流。</p><h3><span>风险提示</span></h3><p><span>1. 国内新能源汽车市场（OEMs）竞争日趋激烈的风险</span></p><p><span>2. 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