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有认知却没钱了
看破薄雾 看清战局
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有认知却没钱了
有认知却没钱了
·
05-14
$微软(MSFT)$
cs ！🤮
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有认知却没钱了
有认知却没钱了
·
05-13
$微软(MSFT)$
中概股不如 我想骂这货 但是又被屏蔽
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有认知却没钱了
有认知却没钱了
·
05-11
这cs是一直唱空美股和半导体的 砸中一直割韭菜
洪灏：半导体行情还没有走完，未来几年人民币将继续升值
创业板是“中国纳指”
洪灏：半导体行情还没有走完，未来几年人民币将继续升值
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有认知却没钱了
有认知却没钱了
·
05-06
重写？
低开6.49%！五粮液“财务大洗澡”，花旗将评级从买入下调至卖出
机构：5月A股科技主线有望延续。 5月6日消息，五粮液低开6.49%，报价90.78元。 花旗认为，为了“纠正会计错误”而对部分销售收入确认进行调整，五粮液出人意料地宣布对其历史9M25损益表进行重大“重述”，将其历史上报告的9M25净利润削减了150亿元人民币，这在中国白酒行业是前所未有的。在将26E/27E的净利润预测下调51%/47%之后，我们将评级从买入下调至卖出。投资者据此操作，风险自担。
低开6.49%！五粮液“财务大洗澡”，花旗将评级从买入下调至卖出
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有认知却没钱了
有认知却没钱了
·
05-05
$微软(MSFT)$
什么fw标的 真exin
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有认知却没钱了
有认知却没钱了
·
04-28
$英伟达(NVDA)$
开盘砸盘的出生真他恶行
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有认知却没钱了
·
04-09
$英伟达(NVDA)$
微软和这勾指数一半都跑不过 🤢
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有认知却没钱了
·
04-07
滚 是费率公布 分析师 你真春
异动解读 | 联合健康盘后大涨10%，受分析师评级上调及成本控制措施提振
联合健康(UNH)今日盘后股价大幅上涨10.00%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，Raymond James近期将该公司的评级从“与大市持平”上调至“跑赢大市”，并设定了330美元的目标价。分析师认为，联合健康在一般及行政费用方面有更多节省空间，且其Optum Health部门的利润率可见度有所改善。此外，公司关闭或出售了几家亏损的小型诊所，此举有望支撑其利润率。同时，该股近期进入了嘉信美国股息股票ETF的前十大持仓，显示部分投资者对其复苏潜力抱有信心。投资者也正密切关注医疗成本压力及医疗保险优惠计划规定可能出现的缓解迹象。
异动解读 | 联合健康盘后大涨10%，受分析师评级上调及成本控制措施提振
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有认知却没钱了
有认知却没钱了
·
03-27
赶紧的裁员！
“AI颠覆一切”触发企业效率革命 微软(MSFT.US)宣布重组人力资源部门
智通财经APP获悉，据一份内部备忘录显示，美国科技巨头微软首席人力官Amy Coleman重磅宣布，对负责该公司员工薪酬与人力政策的人力资源团队进行全方位重组。微软此举可谓凸显出，“AI颠覆一切”逻辑开始引爆出企业经营效率革命。微软发言人也证实了人力资源团队正在进行的这些调整。
“AI颠覆一切”触发企业效率革命 微软(MSFT.US)宣布重组人力资源部门
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有认知却没钱了
有认知却没钱了
·
03-25
$微软(MSFT)$
够砸中
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但是又被屏蔽","text":"$微软(MSFT)$ 中概股不如 我想骂这货 但是又被屏蔽","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/563795071662248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":563113402978640,"gmtCreate":1778507407171,"gmtModify":1778507409757,"author":{"id":"3455967323479283","authorId":"3455967323479283","name":"有认知却没钱了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8928a2c393f886c12fe587ec81fb5cfc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3455967323479283","authorIdStr":"3455967323479283"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这cs是一直唱空美股和半导体的 砸中一直割韭菜","listText":"这cs是一直唱空美股和半导体的 砸中一直割韭菜","text":"这cs是一直唱空美股和半导体的 砸中一直割韭菜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/563113402978640","repostId":"2634428919","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2634428919","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1778502099,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2634428919?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-11 20:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"洪灏：半导体行情还没有走完，未来几年人民币将继续升值","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2634428919","media":"格隆汇","summary":"创业板是“中国纳指”","content":"<html><body><p><span><span><span>5</span></span></span><span><span>月</span></span><span><span>9</span></span><span><span>日，著名经济学家、莲<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600191\">华资</a>管首席投资官洪灏发布了他与瑞士<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAOS\">宝盛</a>的月度对话，围绕着全球半导体周期、油价未来走势，</span></span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股市场表现，以及人民币的升值趋势等问题，给出了清晰的观点。</span></span></p><p><span><span>洪灏指出，相比日韩，</span></span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股也并不弱，上证指数已回到</span></span><span><span>4200</span></span><span><span>点；</span></span></p><p><span><span>港股也有一定回暖，</span></span></p><p><span><span>去年到今年，港股上市的科技公司中，</span></span><span><span>80%</span></span><span><span>以上大幅涨穿发行价；</span></span></p><p><span><span>内地创业板和科创</span></span><span><span>50，</span></span><span><span>对标美股纳斯达克指数，</span></span></p><p><span><span>创业板指数已近</span></span><span><span>2015</span></span><span><span>年泡沫时期的历史高点，年内创出新高毫无悬念。</span></span></p><p><span><span>洪灏认为，这些指数更能反映中国经济有生命力的部分，</span></span></p><p><span><span>其次，对于近期以半导体为首的</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>行情，</span></span></p><p><span><span>他表示</span></span><span><span>“</span></span><span><span>半导体周期是一个全球性周期</span></span><span><span>”</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>先进生产力已转向</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>、算力和半导体。</span></span></p><p><span><span>今年最大的变化，是</span></span><span><span>AI Agent</span></span><span><span>开始改变物理世界，对存储半导体产生爆炸性需求。</span></span></p><p><span><span>很多存储公司业绩实现十几倍、几十倍的增长，并且未来两年的产能已全部卖完。</span></span></p><p><span><span>中国半导体公司估值和走势对标美国，</span></span></p><p><span><span>美国有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>，中国有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">寒武纪</a>；美国有</span></span><span><span>Anthropic</span></span><span><span>，中国有</span></span><span><span>DeepSeek</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>半导体的盈利至少未来两年无法证伪，行情一时半会儿走不完，</span></span></p><p><span><span>但他也警示投资者，抛物线式的上涨最终也会迎来抛物线式下跌，只是现在没有到时候。</span></span></p><p><span><span>此外，洪灏指出，未来几年人民币继续升值没有悬念，</span></span></p><p><span><span>他在去年底时，就曾给出过6.8的第一目标位</span><span>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>更强的人民币和更弱的美元符合中美两国最佳利益，</span></span></p><p><span><span>第二个目标看</span></span><span><span>6.2-6.5</span></span><span><span>，长期看到</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>左右。</span></span></p><p><span><span>洪灏最后认为，整体不确定性在减弱，流动性未边际变坏，</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>6</span></span><span><span>月份是个对市场比较友好的窗口期。</span></span></p><p><b><span><span>投资报</span></span></b><b><span><span>整理精选了洪灏分享的精华内容如下：</span></span></b></p><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></span></b></h3><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">创业板对标纳斯达克</font></span></span></b></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><b><span><span>相比海外</span></span></b><b><span><span>A</span></span></b><b><span><span>股也并不弱</span></span></b></font></h3><div><font color=\"#3daad6\"><b><span><span><br/></span></span></b></font></div><p><span><span>问：</span><span>和日韩相比，其他什么原因导致中、港股票都相对比较弱？我们什么时候能够期待一个比较强势的行情？</span></span></p><p><b><span><span>洪灏：首先，其实</span></span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股不弱的，</span></span></b></p><p><span><span>现在上证指数已经回到了</span></span><span><span>4200</span></span><span><span>点。</span></span></p><p><span><span>同时我觉得港股其实也有一定的回暖，当然它回升的势头，是比其他地区要弱一点。</span></span></p><p><span><span>其实我觉得，最主要的还是投资者没有看对指数。</span></span></p><p><span><span>我举两个例子。</span></span></p><p><span><span>一个就是中国香港市场，</span></span></p><p><span><span>去年到今年，可以看到，上市之后，科技公司</span></span><span><span>80%</span></span><span><span>以上是大幅升穿发行价的；</span></span></p><p><span><span>同时内地的创业板，其实就直接对标美国的纳斯达克指数，</span></span></p><p><span><span>或者说中国最好的科技公司，其实都在创业板，还有科创</span></span><span><span>50</span></span><span><span>，</span></span></p><p><span><span>这些指数里，它的成分股一般都是机器人、</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>、还有生物医药等等，这些公司的盈利增长非常惊人。</span></span></p><p><span><span>以前我们也讨论过类似的话题，</span></span></p><p><span><span>就是说很多公司实现了从</span></span><span><span>0-1</span></span><span><span>的模式转换，从一个亏钱的公司转成一个开始挣钱的公司等等。</span></span></p><p><span><span>当你看到这些指数的表现的时候，我相信大家就会对于中国经济有一个更正确的认识，</span></span></p><p><span><span>比如说创业板已经接近历史最高点了，</span></span><span><span>2015</span></span><span><span>年泡沫时候的最高点了。</span></span></p><p><span><span><b>我相信今年之内，创业板大幅创出历史新高，这是毫无悬念的；</b></span></span></p><p><span><span>其他相关的科技公司，都会有所表现。</span></span></p><p><span><span>所以，当我们看这些相关指数的时候，</span></span></p><p><span><span>我们更能够感受到中国经济里特别有生命力的一部分。</span></span></p><p><span><span>海外很多投资者，看中国的时候，还是在看一些老掉牙的指数，上证指数这些，</span></span></p><p><span><span>我相信这种结构没有反映我们中国经济真实的情况，</span></span></p><p><span><span>因此他就看不到中国经济的生命力所在。</span></span></p><p><span><span>当然，韩国市场已经疯狂了，</span></span></p><p><span><span>因为其大部分表现是由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、海力士等半导体公司推动的。</span></span></p><p><span><span>我们以前也从未见过这种股市表现。</span></span></p><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></span></b></h3><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">半导体周期</font></span></span></b></h3><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">是一个全球性周期</font></span></span></b></h3><div><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></span></b></div><p><span><span><b>问：</b></span><span>您目前对这些以半导体为首的</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>设备行情的看法是什么？就是美国跟中国会有不同的看法吗？</span></span></p><p><span><span><b>洪灏：我相信半导体周期是一个全球性的周期，</b></span></span></p><p><span><span>现在先进生产力的代表，已经转化为</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>、算力，还有半导体。</span></span></p><p><span><span>你要实现</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>，那么你的半导体上，就要实现突破。</span></span></p><p><span><span>比如说，我们今年一个新的趋势就是</span></span><span><span>AI Agent</span></span><span><span>，</span></span></p><p><span><span>这个</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>不仅仅是文字输出、陪你聊天。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这个</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>是可以帮你订机票、订酒店、安排你的行程，</span></span></p><p><span><span>自动回复</span></span><span><span>E-mail</span></span><span><span>，自动跑量化的程序、去选股票，甚至可以自动下单交易了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这是一个非常大级别的改变，它从文字的输出，变成物理世界的改变。</span></span></p><p><b><span><span>现在领先的</span></span><span><span>AI Agent</span></span><span><span>模型里，其实有很多是中国的公司，</span></span></b></p><p><span><span>大家熟悉的，比如</span></span><span><span>Mini Max</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>Manus</span></span><span><span>这些。</span></span></p><p><span><span>当你要使用</span></span><span><span>AI Agent</span></span><span><span>时，对于半导体的要求就更高了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>以前你可能买个</span></span><span><span>GPU</span></span><span><span>就可以了，然后基于</span></span><span><span>Process</span></span><span><span>去处理你的一系列指令。</span></span></p><p><span><span>现在你需要整台机器去协同运作。</span></span></p><p><span><span>比如你需要下单的软件，你需要量化计算的软件，你需要</span></span><span><span>E-mail</span></span><span><span>等等，整台机器都要协同运作。</span></span></p><p><span><span>同时，</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>它是需要有记忆的，</span></span></p><p><span><span>所以这些都导致了对于半导体，尤其是存储半导体端爆炸性的需求。</span></span></p><p><span><span>比如说在这个财报季里，我们看到很多存储公司，它的业绩都是十几倍，几十倍的增长。</span></span></p><p><span><span>同时，未来两年的产能全部都卖完了，都定完了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这个是我们今年看到的最大的改变。</span></span></p><p><span><span>即便是去年年底，我们认为</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>将会进入我们的物理世界，</span></span></p><p><span><span>我们也没有想到它来得这么快，这么突然，而且这么火爆。</span></span></p><p><span><span>主要还是因为对于存储的需求，以及在</span></span><span><span>GPU</span></span><span><span>之间信号传递的需求，引爆了行情。</span></span></p><p><span><span><b>我觉得我们中国这边很多半导体公司，其实它的估值和价格走势都是对标美国公司的。</b></span></span></p><p><span><span>美国有英伟达，我们有寒武纪，</span></span></p><p><span><span>美国有</span></span><span><span>Anthropic</span></span><span><span>，我们这边有</span></span><span><span>DeepSeek</span></span><span><span>，估值现在是</span></span><span><span>450</span></span><span><span>亿到</span></span><span><span>500</span></span><span><span>亿美元。</span></span></p><p><span><span>半导体的周期是全球性的，</span></span></p><p><span><span>这些半导体公司的产能是属于全世界的，所以美股涨的话，我们中国股票也涨。</span></span></p><p><span><span>同时很多在香港上市的半导体相关、</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>相关的股票，它们上市之后的表现非常好，</span></span></p><p><span><span>最近我们看到一家非常棒的公司，上市之后第二天就涨了接近</span></span><span><span>4</span></span><span><span>倍。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这样的行情，随着半导体的盈利</span></span><span><span>——</span></span><span><span>至少未来两年没有办法证伪</span></span><span><span>——</span></span></p><p><span><span>你没有办法认为它的盈利会崩塌，所以估值的优势就有了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>比如说看到很多半导体公司的估值还是个位数，尽管它也涨了很多倍了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这些都告诉我们，半导体是一个全球性的周期，同时如果你想在</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>上领先的话，你对于半导体的需求和要求是非常高的。</span></span></p><p><span><span><b>我相信这个行情一时半会儿还没有走完，</b></span></span></p><p><span><span><b>但是我们也要知道，这种抛物线式的上涨，最后必然迎来抛物线式的下跌，只是现在没有到时候。</b></span></span></p><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></span></b></h3><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">人民币被严重低估</font></span></span></b></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><b><span><span>今年有望升至</span></span></b><b><span><span>6.2-6.5</span></span></b></font></h3><div><font color=\"#3daad6\"><b><span><span><br/></span></span></b></font></div><p><span><span><b>问：</b></span><span>我记得您讲过，人民币可能还是会涨到一个比较厉害的水平，目前您对于货币的看法是差不多吗？</span></span></p><p><span><span><b>洪灏：人民币升值我觉得没有悬念，只是速度的快慢，</b></span></span></p><p><span><span>这个是你无法预测的，因为是由央行来掌握的。</span></span></p><p><span><span>但是它的大方向肯定是没有变化的，</span></span></p><p><span><span>在未来几年里，人民币还将继续升值，</span></span></p><p><span><span>无论是因为出口的强势，人民币实际汇率被严重低估，还是我们外汇储备的积累，以及中国制造业相对的强势。</span></span></p><p><span><span><b>这一切都告诉我们，中国人民币是全世界最被低估的货币之一，它有强烈的升值需求。</b></span></span></p><p><span><span>对中国和美国而言，人民币处于两个大国经济关系中的一个非常微妙的平衡点。</span></span></p><p><span><span>美国希望将制造业带回美国，</span></span></p><p><span><span>要做到这一点，它实际上需要一个更弱的美元；</span></span></p><p><span><span>与此同时，我们希望将经济结构重组为以消费为基础的经济。</span></span></p><p><span><span>如果要这样做，更强的人民币将使这一转型更容易，</span></span></p><p><span><span>更强的人民币，会增加中国消费者的国内购买力，</span></span></p><p><span><span>而且，更强的人民币，对进口商将原材料运到中国制造产品也更有利。</span></span></p><p><span><span>所以我认为，更强的人民币和更弱的美元，符合这两个国家的最佳利益。</span></span></p><p><span><span>如果是这样，这可能也将是特朗普来访期间的重要议题。</span></span></p><p><span><span>在很久之前，我们已经对人民币升值目标给出过观点，</span></span></p><p><span><span>在</span></span><span><span>7.2</span></span><span><span>的时候，我们说升值到</span></span><span><span>6.8</span></span><span><span>附近；</span></span></p><p><b><span><span>现在到</span></span><span><span>6.8</span></span><span><span>的时候，我们看</span></span><span><span>6.5</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>6.2</span></span><span><span>等等，</span></span></b></p><p><b><span><span>一直到破</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>左右，当然，</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>是更长时间的目标价格。</span></span></b></p><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></span></b></h3><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">不确定性在减弱</font></span></span></b></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><b><span><span>5</span></span></b><b><span><span>、</span></span></b><b><span><span>6</span></span></b><b><span><span>月市场将比较友好</span></span></b></font></h3><div><font color=\"#3daad6\"><b><span><span><br/></span></span></b></font></div><p><span><span><b>问：</b></span><span>上个月您讲过，中东局势最坏的情况已经过去了。油价还是在偏高的位置，但好像股票市场也没这么担心所谓高油价对于经济的影响。</span></span></p><p><span><span>如果未来美伊双方最终真的达成协议，假设油价回落，那能不能期待环球市场能够再创新高呢？</span></span></p><p><b><span><span>洪灏</span></span><span><span>：我相信，未来一两个月左右，环球市场还是会有新高的。</span></span></b></p><p><span><span>油价，的确是一个非常大的不确定性，</span></span></p><p><span><span>全球石油战略储备消耗的速度，还是有史以来最快的，</span></span></p><p><span><span>但是我们现在消耗的都是历史成本计价的油，可能都是在</span></span><span><span>40</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>50</span></span><span><span>美元价格囤回来的油。</span></span></p><p><span><span>那当这个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>重新开启的时候，它就会弥补一部分的供需缺口。</span></span></p><p><span><span>石油现价这么高，主要是因为有一些经济体又想要石油，但是又没有战略储备，那只能现在用高价来购买，</span></span></p><p><span><span>但是，</span></span><span><span>远期的油价，其实我们看到还是比较平稳的。</span></span></p><p><span><span>我相信市场可能是这样去思考这个问题的，如果是这样的话，其实即便是石油现价高，其实它不确定性并没有那么高。</span></span></p><p><span><span>因为海峡</span></span><span><span>迟早是要开放的，因为不开放的话，伊朗也会没钱了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>伊朗不卖油的话，它财政的消耗也差不多了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>比如，前两天美国说，</span></span><span><span>“</span></span><span><span>我们很可能将达成停火的协议</span></span><span><span>”</span></span><span><span>，</span></span></p><p><span><span>但是，我们看到早上伊朗还去打阿联酋的炼油厂，</span></span></p><p><span><span>下午这个停火协议就出来了，美国人也没有太在意伊朗对阿联酋炼油厂的袭击。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这些告诉我们，其实离达成的时间，已经非常临近了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>所以，我觉得石油虽然比以前贵了，但是市场并不认为它是一个特别大的不确定性。</span></span></p><p><span><span>油价虽然高，但是它对于实体经济运行的影响，其实并没有像</span></span><span><span>70</span></span><span><span>年代的几次石油危机那么大。</span></span></p><p><span><span>因为当时全球的经济还是依赖于石油，尤其是中东的石油，</span></span></p><p><span><span>那时候还没有美国的页岩气革命。</span></span></p><p><span><span>因此，油价并不是一个最大的不确定性因素。</span></span></p><p><span><span>如果是这样的话，市场会越过这个短期的不确定性去看长期。</span></span></p><p><span><span>同时在这个市场里，其实最确定的就是半导体公司。</span></span></p><p><span><span>因为半导体公司人家会告诉你三年的产能都卖完了，这太确定了，</span></span></p><p><span><span>再加一点价格，每一年的盈利，你都能够算出来是多少。</span></span></p><p><span><span>同时加上大规模的资本开支，基本上未来两三年的盈利可见度是非常高的。</span></span></p><p><span><span><b>在这么确定的盈利预期下，以及资本支出的爆发，还有货币政策暂时也加不了息；</b></span></span></p><p><span><span><b>所以我们都看到了，整体的不确定性在减弱，同时流动性并没有马上开始边际地变坏；</b></span></span></p><p><b><span><span>所以，我相信</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>6</span></span><span><span>月应该都是对于市场来说比较友好的两个月。</span></span></b></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>洪灏：半导体行情还没有走完，未来几年人民币将继续升值</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n洪灏：半导体行情还没有走完，未来几年人民币将继续升值\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-11 20:21 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4714824><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5月9日，著名经济学家、莲华资管首席投资官洪灏发布了他与瑞士宝盛的月度对话，围绕着全球半导体周期、油价未来走势，A股市场表现，以及人民币的升值趋势等问题，给出了清晰的观点。洪灏指出，相比日韩，A股也并不弱，上证指数已回到4200点；港股也有一定回暖，去年到今年，港股上市的科技公司中，80%以上大幅涨穿发行价；内地创业板和科创50，对标美股纳斯达克指数，创业板指数已近2015年泡沫时期的历史高点，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4714824\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/6585f-21a92406-3244-4459-b8c3-f622fdd104f1.jpg?guru_height=963&guru_width=1280&guru_size=189436","relate_stocks":{"688256":"寒武纪","CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4588":"碎股","HSI":"恒生指数","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4714824","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2634428919","content_text":"5月9日，著名经济学家、莲华资管首席投资官洪灏发布了他与瑞士宝盛的月度对话，围绕着全球半导体周期、油价未来走势，A股市场表现，以及人民币的升值趋势等问题，给出了清晰的观点。洪灏指出，相比日韩，A股也并不弱，上证指数已回到4200点；港股也有一定回暖，去年到今年，港股上市的科技公司中，80%以上大幅涨穿发行价；内地创业板和科创50，对标美股纳斯达克指数，创业板指数已近2015年泡沫时期的历史高点，年内创出新高毫无悬念。洪灏认为，这些指数更能反映中国经济有生命力的部分，其次，对于近期以半导体为首的AI行情，他表示“半导体周期是一个全球性周期”。先进生产力已转向AI、算力和半导体。今年最大的变化，是AI Agent开始改变物理世界，对存储半导体产生爆炸性需求。很多存储公司业绩实现十几倍、几十倍的增长，并且未来两年的产能已全部卖完。中国半导体公司估值和走势对标美国，美国有英伟达，中国有寒武纪；美国有Anthropic，中国有DeepSeek。半导体的盈利至少未来两年无法证伪，行情一时半会儿走不完，但他也警示投资者，抛物线式的上涨最终也会迎来抛物线式下跌，只是现在没有到时候。此外，洪灏指出，未来几年人民币继续升值没有悬念，他在去年底时，就曾给出过6.8的第一目标位。更强的人民币和更弱的美元符合中美两国最佳利益，第二个目标看6.2-6.5，长期看到5左右。洪灏最后认为，整体不确定性在减弱，流动性未边际变坏，5、6月份是个对市场比较友好的窗口期。投资报整理精选了洪灏分享的精华内容如下：创业板对标纳斯达克相比海外A股也并不弱问：和日韩相比，其他什么原因导致中、港股票都相对比较弱？我们什么时候能够期待一个比较强势的行情？洪灏：首先，其实A股不弱的，现在上证指数已经回到了4200点。同时我觉得港股其实也有一定的回暖，当然它回升的势头，是比其他地区要弱一点。其实我觉得，最主要的还是投资者没有看对指数。我举两个例子。一个就是中国香港市场，去年到今年，可以看到，上市之后，科技公司80%以上是大幅升穿发行价的；同时内地的创业板，其实就直接对标美国的纳斯达克指数，或者说中国最好的科技公司，其实都在创业板，还有科创50，这些指数里，它的成分股一般都是机器人、AI、还有生物医药等等，这些公司的盈利增长非常惊人。以前我们也讨论过类似的话题，就是说很多公司实现了从0-1的模式转换，从一个亏钱的公司转成一个开始挣钱的公司等等。当你看到这些指数的表现的时候，我相信大家就会对于中国经济有一个更正确的认识，比如说创业板已经接近历史最高点了，2015年泡沫时候的最高点了。我相信今年之内，创业板大幅创出历史新高，这是毫无悬念的；其他相关的科技公司，都会有所表现。所以，当我们看这些相关指数的时候，我们更能够感受到中国经济里特别有生命力的一部分。海外很多投资者，看中国的时候，还是在看一些老掉牙的指数，上证指数这些，我相信这种结构没有反映我们中国经济真实的情况，因此他就看不到中国经济的生命力所在。当然，韩国市场已经疯狂了，因为其大部分表现是由三星、海力士等半导体公司推动的。我们以前也从未见过这种股市表现。半导体周期是一个全球性周期问：您目前对这些以半导体为首的AI设备行情的看法是什么？就是美国跟中国会有不同的看法吗？洪灏：我相信半导体周期是一个全球性的周期，现在先进生产力的代表，已经转化为AI、算力，还有半导体。你要实现AI，那么你的半导体上，就要实现突破。比如说，我们今年一个新的趋势就是AI Agent，这个AI不仅仅是文字输出、陪你聊天。这个AI是可以帮你订机票、订酒店、安排你的行程，自动回复E-mail，自动跑量化的程序、去选股票，甚至可以自动下单交易了。这是一个非常大级别的改变，它从文字的输出，变成物理世界的改变。现在领先的AI Agent模型里，其实有很多是中国的公司，大家熟悉的，比如Mini Max，Manus这些。当你要使用AI Agent时，对于半导体的要求就更高了。以前你可能买个GPU就可以了，然后基于Process去处理你的一系列指令。现在你需要整台机器去协同运作。比如你需要下单的软件，你需要量化计算的软件，你需要E-mail等等，整台机器都要协同运作。同时，AI它是需要有记忆的，所以这些都导致了对于半导体，尤其是存储半导体端爆炸性的需求。比如说在这个财报季里，我们看到很多存储公司，它的业绩都是十几倍，几十倍的增长。同时，未来两年的产能全部都卖完了，都定完了。这个是我们今年看到的最大的改变。即便是去年年底，我们认为AI将会进入我们的物理世界，我们也没有想到它来得这么快，这么突然，而且这么火爆。主要还是因为对于存储的需求，以及在GPU之间信号传递的需求，引爆了行情。我觉得我们中国这边很多半导体公司，其实它的估值和价格走势都是对标美国公司的。美国有英伟达，我们有寒武纪，美国有Anthropic，我们这边有DeepSeek，估值现在是450亿到500亿美元。半导体的周期是全球性的，这些半导体公司的产能是属于全世界的，所以美股涨的话，我们中国股票也涨。同时很多在香港上市的半导体相关、AI相关的股票，它们上市之后的表现非常好，最近我们看到一家非常棒的公司，上市之后第二天就涨了接近4倍。这样的行情，随着半导体的盈利——至少未来两年没有办法证伪——你没有办法认为它的盈利会崩塌，所以估值的优势就有了。比如说看到很多半导体公司的估值还是个位数，尽管它也涨了很多倍了。这些都告诉我们，半导体是一个全球性的周期，同时如果你想在AI上领先的话，你对于半导体的需求和要求是非常高的。我相信这个行情一时半会儿还没有走完，但是我们也要知道，这种抛物线式的上涨，最后必然迎来抛物线式的下跌，只是现在没有到时候。人民币被严重低估今年有望升至6.2-6.5问：我记得您讲过，人民币可能还是会涨到一个比较厉害的水平，目前您对于货币的看法是差不多吗？洪灏：人民币升值我觉得没有悬念，只是速度的快慢，这个是你无法预测的，因为是由央行来掌握的。但是它的大方向肯定是没有变化的，在未来几年里，人民币还将继续升值，无论是因为出口的强势，人民币实际汇率被严重低估，还是我们外汇储备的积累，以及中国制造业相对的强势。这一切都告诉我们，中国人民币是全世界最被低估的货币之一，它有强烈的升值需求。对中国和美国而言，人民币处于两个大国经济关系中的一个非常微妙的平衡点。美国希望将制造业带回美国，要做到这一点，它实际上需要一个更弱的美元；与此同时，我们希望将经济结构重组为以消费为基础的经济。如果要这样做，更强的人民币将使这一转型更容易，更强的人民币，会增加中国消费者的国内购买力，而且，更强的人民币，对进口商将原材料运到中国制造产品也更有利。所以我认为，更强的人民币和更弱的美元，符合这两个国家的最佳利益。如果是这样，这可能也将是特朗普来访期间的重要议题。在很久之前，我们已经对人民币升值目标给出过观点，在7.2的时候，我们说升值到6.8附近；现在到6.8的时候，我们看6.5，6.2等等，一直到破5左右，当然，5是更长时间的目标价格。不确定性在减弱5、6月市场将比较友好问：上个月您讲过，中东局势最坏的情况已经过去了。油价还是在偏高的位置，但好像股票市场也没这么担心所谓高油价对于经济的影响。如果未来美伊双方最终真的达成协议，假设油价回落，那能不能期待环球市场能够再创新高呢？洪灏：我相信，未来一两个月左右，环球市场还是会有新高的。油价，的确是一个非常大的不确定性，全球石油战略储备消耗的速度，还是有史以来最快的，但是我们现在消耗的都是历史成本计价的油，可能都是在40、50美元价格囤回来的油。那当这个海峡重新开启的时候，它就会弥补一部分的供需缺口。石油现价这么高，主要是因为有一些经济体又想要石油，但是又没有战略储备，那只能现在用高价来购买，但是，远期的油价，其实我们看到还是比较平稳的。我相信市场可能是这样去思考这个问题的，如果是这样的话，其实即便是石油现价高，其实它不确定性并没有那么高。因为海峡迟早是要开放的，因为不开放的话，伊朗也会没钱了。伊朗不卖油的话，它财政的消耗也差不多了。比如，前两天美国说，“我们很可能将达成停火的协议”，但是，我们看到早上伊朗还去打阿联酋的炼油厂，下午这个停火协议就出来了，美国人也没有太在意伊朗对阿联酋炼油厂的袭击。这些告诉我们，其实离达成的时间，已经非常临近了。所以，我觉得石油虽然比以前贵了，但是市场并不认为它是一个特别大的不确定性。油价虽然高，但是它对于实体经济运行的影响，其实并没有像70年代的几次石油危机那么大。因为当时全球的经济还是依赖于石油，尤其是中东的石油，那时候还没有美国的页岩气革命。因此，油价并不是一个最大的不确定性因素。如果是这样的话，市场会越过这个短期的不确定性去看长期。同时在这个市场里，其实最确定的就是半导体公司。因为半导体公司人家会告诉你三年的产能都卖完了，这太确定了，再加一点价格，每一年的盈利，你都能够算出来是多少。同时加上大规模的资本开支，基本上未来两三年的盈利可见度是非常高的。在这么确定的盈利预期下，以及资本支出的爆发，还有货币政策暂时也加不了息；所以我们都看到了，整体的不确定性在减弱，同时流动性并没有马上开始边际地变坏；所以，我相信5、6月应该都是对于市场来说比较友好的两个月。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688256":1.87,"CYB":0.6,"NVDA":1.9,"HSI":1.84,"HSTECH":1.84}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561187067426760,"gmtCreate":1778040339480,"gmtModify":1778040341908,"author":{"id":"3455967323479283","authorId":"3455967323479283","name":"有认知却没钱了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8928a2c393f886c12fe587ec81fb5cfc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3455967323479283","authorIdStr":"3455967323479283"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"重写？","listText":"重写？","text":"重写？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561187067426760","repostId":"2633971663","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2633971663","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1778031180,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2633971663?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-06 09:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"低开6.49%！五粮液“财务大洗澡”，花旗将评级从买入下调至卖出","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633971663","media":"股市直击","summary":"机构：5月A股科技主线有望延续。 5月6日消息，五粮液低开6.49%，报价90.78元。 花旗认为，为了“纠正会计错误”而对部分销售收入确认进行调整，五粮液出人意料地宣布对其历史9M25损益表进行重大“重述”，将其历史上报告的9M25净利润削减了150亿元人民币，这在中国白酒行业是前所未有的。在将26E/27E的净利润预测下调51%/47%之后，我们将评级从买入下调至卖出。投资者据此操作，风险自担。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 专题：节后行情怎么看？机构：5月A股科技主线有望延续</p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<img src=\"http://image.sinajs.cn/n/cn/min/640x360xxfhd/sz000858.png\"/>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<span>热点栏目</span>\n<s></s>\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n</div>\n客户端\n</div>\n</div>\n<blockquote><p> 炒股就看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">金麒麟</a>分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！</p></blockquote> <p> 5月6日消息，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">五粮液</a></span><span></span>低开6.49%，报价90.78元。</p>\n<p> 消息面上，公司2025年财报“重写”，2025年一季度营收从369.4亿元调减至170.86亿元，调减幅度53.7%，归母净利润从148.6亿元调减至44.16亿元，降幅超70%；2025年前三季度累计调减营业收入303.07亿元，调减归母净利润150.36亿元；2025年全年更正后营收405.29亿元，同比下降54.55%，净利润89.54亿元，同比下降71.89%。</p>\n<p> 花旗认为，为了“纠正会计错误”而对部分销售收入确认进行调整，五粮液出人意料地宣布对其历史9M25损益表进行重大“重述”，将其历史上报告的9M25净利润削减了150亿元人民币，这在中国白酒行业是前所未有的。尽管公司没有提供详细解释，我们认为这本质上是一个重大的渠道库存回购计划，主要通过应付经销商款项（而非向经销商支付现金）来提供资金。由于这些渠道库存中的大部分可能仍然实际存放在经销商的仓库中，我们预计26年经营将持续存在不确定性，尽管应计会计利润的比较基数较低（由其9M25“重述”重置），并且其新宣布了80-100亿元人民币的股份回购计划。在将26E/27E的净利润预测下调51%/47%之后，我们将评级从买入下调至卖出。</p>\n<font>新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。</font>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：郝欣煜 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2026-05-06/doc-inhwxhnn8432887.shtml><strong>股市直击</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>专题：节后行情怎么看？机构：5月A股科技主线有望延续\n\n\n\n\n\n\n热点栏目\n\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n\n客户端\n\n\n 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 5月6日消息，五粮液低开6.49%，报价90.78元。\n 消息面上，公司2025年财报“重写”，2025年一季度营收从369.4亿元调减至170.86亿元，调减幅度53.7%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2026-05-06/doc-inhwxhnn8432887.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"83189":"易方达白酒-R","000858":"五粮液","03189":"易方达白酒"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2026-05-06/doc-inhwxhnn8432887.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2633971663","content_text":"专题：节后行情怎么看？机构：5月A股科技主线有望延续\n\n\n\n\n\n\n热点栏目\n\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n\n客户端\n\n\n 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花旗认为，为了“纠正会计错误”而对部分销售收入确认进行调整，五粮液出人意料地宣布对其历史9M25损益表进行重大“重述”，将其历史上报告的9M25净利润削减了150亿元人民币，这在中国白酒行业是前所未有的。尽管公司没有提供详细解释，我们认为这本质上是一个重大的渠道库存回购计划，主要通过应付经销商款项（而非向经销商支付现金）来提供资金。由于这些渠道库存中的大部分可能仍然实际存放在经销商的仓库中，我们预计26年经营将持续存在不确定性，尽管应计会计利润的比较基数较低（由其9M25“重述”重置），并且其新宣布了80-100亿元人民币的股份回购计划。在将26E/27E的净利润预测下调51%/47%之后，我们将评级从买入下调至卖出。\n新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：郝欣煜","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"83189":1.5,"000858":1.5,"03189":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":560987224491712,"gmtCreate":1777991534275,"gmtModify":1777992173606,"author":{"id":"3455967323479283","authorId":"3455967323479283","name":"有认知却没钱了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8928a2c393f886c12fe587ec81fb5cfc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3455967323479283","authorIdStr":"3455967323479283"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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开盘砸盘的出生真他恶行","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 开盘砸盘的出生真他恶行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/558210553729376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551502593747136,"gmtCreate":1775666098144,"gmtModify":1775666099956,"author":{"id":"3455967323479283","authorId":"3455967323479283","name":"有认知却没钱了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8928a2c393f886c12fe587ec81fb5cfc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3455967323479283","authorIdStr":"3455967323479283"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 微软和这勾指数一半都跑不过 🤢","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 微软和这勾指数一半都跑不过 🤢","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 微软和这勾指数一半都跑不过 🤢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551502593747136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":917,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":550855368779776,"gmtCreate":1775508080755,"gmtModify":1775526257445,"author":{"id":"3455967323479283","authorId":"3455967323479283","name":"有认知却没钱了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8928a2c393f886c12fe587ec81fb5cfc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3455967323479283","authorIdStr":"3455967323479283"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"滚 是费率公布 分析师 你真春","listText":"滚 是费率公布 分析师 你真春","text":"滚 是费率公布 分析师 你真春","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/550855368779776","repostId":"1151284249","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1151284249","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1775507600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151284249?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-07 04:33","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"异动解读 | 联合健康盘后大涨10%，受分析师评级上调及成本控制措施提振","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151284249","media":"异动解读","summary":"联合健康(UNH)今日盘后股价大幅上涨10.00%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，Raymond James近期将该公司的评级从“与大市持平”上调至“跑赢大市”，并设定了330美元的目标价。分析师认为，联合健康在一般及行政费用方面有更多节省空间，且其Optum Health部门的利润率可见度有所改善。此外，公司关闭或出售了几家亏损的小型诊所，此举有望支撑其利润率。同时，该股近期进入了嘉信美国股息股票ETF的前十大持仓，显示部分投资者对其复苏潜力抱有信心。投资者也正密切关注医疗成本压力及医疗保险优惠计划规定可能出现的缓解迹象。","content":"<p>联合健康(UNH)今日盘后股价大幅上涨10.00%，引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上，Raymond James近期将该公司的评级从“与大市持平”上调至“跑赢大市”，并设定了330美元的目标价。分析师认为，联合健康在一般及行政费用方面有更多节省空间，且其Optum Health部门的利润率可见度有所改善。此外，公司关闭或出售了几家亏损的小型诊所，此举有望支撑其利润率。</p><p>同时，该股近期进入了嘉信美国股息股票ETF的前十大持仓，显示部分投资者对其复苏潜力抱有信心。投资者也正密切关注医疗成本压力及医疗保险优惠计划规定可能出现的缓解迹象。</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动解读 | 联合健康盘后大涨10%，受分析师评级上调及成本控制措施提振</title>\n<style 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04:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>联合健康(UNH)今日盘后股价大幅上涨10.00%，引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上，Raymond James近期将该公司的评级从“与大市持平”上调至“跑赢大市”，并设定了330美元的目标价。分析师认为，联合健康在一般及行政费用方面有更多节省空间，且其Optum Health部门的利润率可见度有所改善。此外，公司关闭或出售了几家亏损的小型诊所，此举有望支撑其利润率。</p><p>同时，该股近期进入了嘉信美国股息股票ETF的前十大持仓，显示部分投资者对其复苏潜力抱有信心。投资者也正密切关注医疗成本压力及医疗保险优惠计划规定可能出现的缓解迹象。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UNH":"联合健康"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151284249","content_text":"联合健康(UNH)今日盘后股价大幅上涨10.00%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，Raymond James近期将该公司的评级从“与大市持平”上调至“跑赢大市”，并设定了330美元的目标价。分析师认为，联合健康在一般及行政费用方面有更多节省空间，且其Optum 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20:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“AI颠覆一切”触发企业效率革命 微软(MSFT.US)宣布重组人力资源部门","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2622857196","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，据一份内部备忘录显示，美国科技巨头微软首席人力官Amy Coleman重磅宣布，对负责该公司员工薪酬与人力政策的人力资源团队进行全方位重组。微软此举可谓凸显出，“AI颠覆一切”逻辑开始引爆出企业经营效率革命。微软发言人也证实了人力资源团队正在进行的这些调整。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，据一份内部备忘录显示，美国科技巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>(MSFT.US)首席人力官Amy Coleman重磅宣布，对负责该公司员工薪酬与人力政策的人力资源团队进行全方位重组。</p><p>微软此举可谓凸显出，“AI颠覆一切”逻辑开始引爆出企业经营效率革命。也就是说在“AI颠覆一切行业”的大背景之下，微软力争通过全面重组人力资源业务部门(HR)来“为AI时代重塑组织操作系统”，但是微软的这种HR重组模式与美国科技公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XYZ\">Block</a>(XYZ.US)以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Facebook</a>母公司Meta(META.US)在能够大幅提高经营效率的AI智能体技术驱动下的“暴力裁员”则截然不同，微软目前动作更偏向组织整合、角色再定义与人才调度。</p><p>Block与Meta暴力裁员，微软则选择先重组HR，AI效率风暴可谓正从代码端席卷至企业日常经营。微软最新的重组HR举措，并不是在简单做人事调整，而是在“AI颠覆一切”的叙事下，先聚焦于重写组织操作系统，再筹划如何具体来兑现AI智能体工作流带来的AI经营效率超级红利。</p><p>微软发言人也证实了人力资源团队正在进行的这些调整。</p><p>一位微软发言人在发给媒体的电子邮件回复中表示：“随着AI技术更新迭代以及我们在微软的工作方式不断演进，我们正在改造我们的人才职能，以确保微软继续成为员工能够发挥最佳工作的地方。我们今天所做的组织架构更新，与我们的业务优先事项高度一致，并帮助我们在不同团队之间更紧密协作、更快速、更高效率联合行动，并简化我们支持员工和客户的运营方式。”</p><p><strong>重组企业人才中枢</strong></p><p>已公开的信息显示，微软这次不是简单调几个职位：Amy Coleman 在内部备忘录里推动整合 HR4HR 与 Culture & Inclusion，新设 People & Culture 团队，合并工程类型HR团队，并新增更偏劳动力精简、人才发展、人员综合分析的组织设计;与此同时，微软上周还把 Microsoft 365 Copilot 与消费者版Copilot团队统一起来，官方明确说这是为了更快推进Copilot AI超级助手向企业端与个人消费者端加速渗透。</p><p>Coleman在声明中披露了一些晋升与离职安排。根据Coleman的最新说法，微软首席多元化官<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LNN\">Lindsay</a>-Rae McIntyre将于3月31日离开该公司，去迈出其职业生涯的“下一步”，担任另一家公司的首席人力官。</p><p>Coleman在备忘录中表示，公司将把HR4HR与Culture & Inclusion合并，组成一个新设立的People & Culture大型团队，由微软People & Culture委员会最新任命的副总裁Leslie Lawson Sims领导。</p><p>微软还将把所有工程类型的人力资源团队整合到同一个团队之下，由Engineering HR企业副总裁Mel Simpson领导。</p><p>Mike Cyran被任命为Total Rewards企业副总裁，向Coleman直接汇报。Fred Thiele则已获晋升为Global Benefits and Mobility 企业副总裁。</p><p>上周，微软宣布，将把负责Microsoft 365 Copilot生产力产品和微软消费者业务版图Copilot的业务团队进行统一整合。</p><p><strong>AI颠覆一切!“颠覆论”所到之处寸草不生</strong></p><p>微软重组HR，与“AI 智能体提升经营效率”高度相关，但它体现的是微软模式的渐进流重构，而不是Block与Meta式的暴力缩编。不过微软显然在把“人力资源体系”和“AI 产品体系”同时向更快决策、更强协同、更少层级的方向调整，这与“AI 颠覆一切”和agentic workflow带来的组织再设计可谓是同一条线。</p><p>推特联合创始人Jack Dorsey领导的Block一次性裁员超过4000员工，接近该科技公司员工总数的一半。该公司的公开声明显示AI智能体模式的代理式AI工具让更小团队也能维持更高效率经营;其CFO之后还进一步表示，聚焦于AI智能体的代理式工作流带来的经营效率大幅提升，所引发的深度裁员对任何企业而言几乎是“不可避免”的。</p><p>微软目前的公开动作更偏向组织整合、角色再定义与人才调度，而不是率先用AI名义做大规模裁员。微软更像是在先重写组织流程、激励机制、技能结构和跨团队接口，以便未来能够让Copilot、agentic AI以及AI-first 产品开发与经营模式真正嵌入企业日常运营。</p><p>随着Anthropic、OpenAI等人工智能大模型领军公司近期重磅发布的一系列聚焦高效率代理式工作流的AI代理产品极有可能以低得多的成本取代某些功能型软件服务，全球软件股可谓遭受了沉重抛售打击。追踪美国软件行业的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>扩展科技-软件行业ETF(IGV.US)，较其9月创下的历史高点已大幅下跌约40%，可谓彻底跌入深度熊市区域。</p><p>2月以来的“AI颠覆一切”悲观基调主要因市场愈发担心类似Claude Cowork以及OpenClaw(曾用名：Clawdbot、Moltbot)爆火且病毒式蔓延的AI代理工作流可能削弱基于SaaS席位订阅营收模式的整个软件<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00776\">帝国</a>，遭遇了罕见抛售，这一抛售迅速蔓延到保险、房地产、卡车运输以及其他任何看起来是席位营收模式或者劳动密集型商业模式的行业——市场认为这些行业将被AI彻底颠覆。</p><p>不仅美股，全球股票市场的软件板块在“AI颠覆一切”的恐慌中自2月以来持续重挫，尽管美股软件板块回购规模激增，但投资者并不买账，因为市场真正担心的是长期基本面与商业模式会不会被Claude Cowork以及OpenClaw这样的AI智能体彻底重塑。</p><p>专注软件与科技行业的美国私募股权投资巨头Thoma Bravo的联合创始人奥兰多·布拉沃在周二表示，人工智能将更快地颠覆软件公司，而其中部分公司估值遭受的不可逆转实质打击“是非常合理的”。他在迈阿密举行的Thoma Bravo投资者会议上表示：“公开市场上有很多很多软件公司将会受到最前沿人工智能技术的彻底颠覆。这些软件公司无论如何都会被AI颠覆。”</p><p>重创软件股的“Anthropic风暴”仍在全球股票市场发酵，并且这股抛售加速蔓延到财富咨询与管理以及房地产咨询等等任何看起来将被AI彻底颠覆的传统行业。“AI颠覆一切”的市场悲观预期如同多米诺骨牌般冲击各个行业板块，从软件、SaaS、PE到保险、传统投行、财富管理、房地产与物业管理甚至物流板块“轮流大跌”，AI可谓在过去三到四周内可谓逐个传统行业扫荡，投资者们加速抛售那些潜在的“输家”。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“AI颠覆一切”触发企业效率革命 微软(MSFT.US)宣布重组人力资源部门\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-26 20:15 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1419761.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，据一份内部备忘录显示，美国科技巨头微软(MSFT.US)首席人力官Amy Coleman重磅宣布，对负责该公司员工薪酬与人力政策的人力资源团队进行全方位重组。微软此举可谓凸显出，“AI颠覆一切”逻辑开始引爆出企业经营效率革命。也就是说在“AI颠覆一切行业”的大背景之下，微软力争通过全面重组人力资源业务部门(HR)来“为AI时代重塑组织操作系统”，但是微软的这种HR重组模式与美国...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1419761.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","SG9999014906.USD":"大华全球优质成长基金Acc USD","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" 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Coleman重磅宣布，对负责该公司员工薪酬与人力政策的人力资源团队进行全方位重组。微软此举可谓凸显出，“AI颠覆一切”逻辑开始引爆出企业经营效率革命。也就是说在“AI颠覆一切行业”的大背景之下，微软力争通过全面重组人力资源业务部门(HR)来“为AI时代重塑组织操作系统”，但是微软的这种HR重组模式与美国科技公司Block(XYZ.US)以及Facebook母公司Meta(META.US)在能够大幅提高经营效率的AI智能体技术驱动下的“暴力裁员”则截然不同，微软目前动作更偏向组织整合、角色再定义与人才调度。Block与Meta暴力裁员，微软则选择先重组HR，AI效率风暴可谓正从代码端席卷至企业日常经营。微软最新的重组HR举措，并不是在简单做人事调整，而是在“AI颠覆一切”的叙事下，先聚焦于重写组织操作系统，再筹划如何具体来兑现AI智能体工作流带来的AI经营效率超级红利。微软发言人也证实了人力资源团队正在进行的这些调整。一位微软发言人在发给媒体的电子邮件回复中表示：“随着AI技术更新迭代以及我们在微软的工作方式不断演进，我们正在改造我们的人才职能，以确保微软继续成为员工能够发挥最佳工作的地方。我们今天所做的组织架构更新，与我们的业务优先事项高度一致，并帮助我们在不同团队之间更紧密协作、更快速、更高效率联合行动，并简化我们支持员工和客户的运营方式。”重组企业人才中枢已公开的信息显示，微软这次不是简单调几个职位：Amy Coleman 在内部备忘录里推动整合 HR4HR 与 Culture & Inclusion，新设 People & Culture 团队，合并工程类型HR团队，并新增更偏劳动力精简、人才发展、人员综合分析的组织设计;与此同时，微软上周还把 Microsoft 365 Copilot 与消费者版Copilot团队统一起来，官方明确说这是为了更快推进Copilot AI超级助手向企业端与个人消费者端加速渗透。Coleman在声明中披露了一些晋升与离职安排。根据Coleman的最新说法，微软首席多元化官Lindsay-Rae McIntyre将于3月31日离开该公司，去迈出其职业生涯的“下一步”，担任另一家公司的首席人力官。Coleman在备忘录中表示，公司将把HR4HR与Culture & Inclusion合并，组成一个新设立的People & Culture大型团队，由微软People & Culture委员会最新任命的副总裁Leslie Lawson Sims领导。微软还将把所有工程类型的人力资源团队整合到同一个团队之下，由Engineering HR企业副总裁Mel Simpson领导。Mike Cyran被任命为Total Rewards企业副总裁，向Coleman直接汇报。Fred Thiele则已获晋升为Global Benefits and Mobility 企业副总裁。上周，微软宣布，将把负责Microsoft 365 Copilot生产力产品和微软消费者业务版图Copilot的业务团队进行统一整合。AI颠覆一切!“颠覆论”所到之处寸草不生微软重组HR，与“AI 智能体提升经营效率”高度相关，但它体现的是微软模式的渐进流重构，而不是Block与Meta式的暴力缩编。不过微软显然在把“人力资源体系”和“AI 产品体系”同时向更快决策、更强协同、更少层级的方向调整，这与“AI 颠覆一切”和agentic workflow带来的组织再设计可谓是同一条线。推特联合创始人Jack Dorsey领导的Block一次性裁员超过4000员工，接近该科技公司员工总数的一半。该公司的公开声明显示AI智能体模式的代理式AI工具让更小团队也能维持更高效率经营;其CFO之后还进一步表示，聚焦于AI智能体的代理式工作流带来的经营效率大幅提升，所引发的深度裁员对任何企业而言几乎是“不可避免”的。微软目前的公开动作更偏向组织整合、角色再定义与人才调度，而不是率先用AI名义做大规模裁员。微软更像是在先重写组织流程、激励机制、技能结构和跨团队接口，以便未来能够让Copilot、agentic AI以及AI-first 产品开发与经营模式真正嵌入企业日常运营。随着Anthropic、OpenAI等人工智能大模型领军公司近期重磅发布的一系列聚焦高效率代理式工作流的AI代理产品极有可能以低得多的成本取代某些功能型软件服务，全球软件股可谓遭受了沉重抛售打击。追踪美国软件行业的iShares扩展科技-软件行业ETF(IGV.US)，较其9月创下的历史高点已大幅下跌约40%，可谓彻底跌入深度熊市区域。2月以来的“AI颠覆一切”悲观基调主要因市场愈发担心类似Claude Cowork以及OpenClaw(曾用名：Clawdbot、Moltbot)爆火且病毒式蔓延的AI代理工作流可能削弱基于SaaS席位订阅营收模式的整个软件帝国，遭遇了罕见抛售，这一抛售迅速蔓延到保险、房地产、卡车运输以及其他任何看起来是席位营收模式或者劳动密集型商业模式的行业——市场认为这些行业将被AI彻底颠覆。不仅美股，全球股票市场的软件板块在“AI颠覆一切”的恐慌中自2月以来持续重挫，尽管美股软件板块回购规模激增，但投资者并不买账，因为市场真正担心的是长期基本面与商业模式会不会被Claude Cowork以及OpenClaw这样的AI智能体彻底重塑。专注软件与科技行业的美国私募股权投资巨头Thoma Bravo的联合创始人奥兰多·布拉沃在周二表示，人工智能将更快地颠覆软件公司，而其中部分公司估值遭受的不可逆转实质打击“是非常合理的”。他在迈阿密举行的Thoma Bravo投资者会议上表示：“公开市场上有很多很多软件公司将会受到最前沿人工智能技术的彻底颠覆。这些软件公司无论如何都会被AI颠覆。”重创软件股的“Anthropic风暴”仍在全球股票市场发酵，并且这股抛售加速蔓延到财富咨询与管理以及房地产咨询等等任何看起来将被AI彻底颠覆的传统行业。“AI颠覆一切”的市场悲观预期如同多米诺骨牌般冲击各个行业板块，从软件、SaaS、PE到保险、传统投行、财富管理、房地产与物业管理甚至物流板块“轮流大跌”，AI可谓在过去三到四周内可谓逐个传统行业扫荡，投资者们加速抛售那些潜在的“输家”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1.97,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFL":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546499445782672,"gmtCreate":1774447441349,"gmtModify":1774447443754,"author":{"id":"3455967323479283","authorId":"3455967323479283","name":"有认知却没钱了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8928a2c393f886c12fe587ec81fb5cfc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3455967323479283","authorIdStr":"3455967323479283"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$ </a> 够砸中","listText":"<a 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