市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！

金十数据2023-03-30

市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！RIA Advisors的投资分析师和投资组合经理罗伯维兹（Michael Lebowitz）撰文表示：“美联储降息并不代表牛市来了。”罗伯维兹称，押注美联储调整政策的股票投资者可能需要重新思考他们的逻辑。美国史上第二大银行倒闭案以及瑞士信贷大幅折价紧急出售，令投资者押注美联储将转向。他们似乎并不关心通胀的热度和粘性，而尽管...

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日内瓦喷泉
·2023-03-31
暴风雨马上就要到了？
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慧_4909
·2023-03-31
市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！
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T0000023960
·2023-03-31
按照你的理论，加息降息都是利空。那**还不去做空干嘛？
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Juan_dSH
·2023-03-30
学习了！事出反常必有妖
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刀锋战士阿尔法
·2023-03-30
又是你发的数据和评论！我注意上你了！
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P/E)或P/E 10比率，是一种通常用于美国标普500指数股市的估值指标。它的定义是价格除以经过通货膨胀调整的10年平均收入(移动平均)。目前的CAPE估值虽然没有2021年底那么高，但比平均水平高出约50%。尽管市场已经进行了一些调整，但估值仍可能回到平均水平或低于平均水平，就像2003年和2009年那样。罗伯维兹称：“很难对2020年的回撤做出结论。史无前例的财政和货币政策在提振股市方面发挥了突出作用。考虑到通胀和政治分歧，我们认为，现在就算市场出现更严重的下跌，美联储成员或政界人士都不太可能加大财政和货币政策的刺激。”市场对降息的预期并不现实美联储上周仍直言不讳地表示，希望通胀率回到2%的目标。如果他们要像市场预测的那样迅速且大幅降息，那一定是出了问题。目前，只有在银行业危机或经济迅速恶化的严重不利形势下，才有理由采取市场暗示的那种降息。请注意，无论是危机还是衰退，对公司收益和股价来说都不是好事。关于美联储的政策转向，还有一点值得考虑。如果美联储降息，收益率曲线可能会恢复正常。从历史上看，收益率曲线的倒挂只是衰退的警告。下图显示了两条备受关注的美国国债收益率曲线。在上述四种情况（即回撤幅度大于平均水平）和1990年之前的其他情况中，两条曲线变陡都伴随着经济衰退。而过去两周，2-10年期美债收益率曲线变陡了60个基点。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":659738077,"gmtCreate":1680240893299,"gmtModify":1680240894749,"author":{"id":"4096015652742090","authorId":"4096015652742090","name":"日内瓦喷泉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44849e13a0d986c7c7f06335ba754d82","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"暴风雨马上就要到了？","listText":"暴风雨马上就要到了？","text":"暴风雨马上就要到了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659738077","repostId":2323678027,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":659458502,"gmtCreate":1680218742806,"gmtModify":1680225669591,"author":{"id":"3515586475760605","authorId":"3515586475760605","name":"慧_4909","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc2ea5aee7245d4cc04ee6d0fc60efe","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！","listText":"市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！","text":"市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659458502","repostId":2323678027,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":659426724,"gmtCreate":1680195478468,"gmtModify":1680195480452,"author":{"id":"3550206607346427","authorId":"3550206607346427","name":"T0000023960","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/043d4035b367f060dbcca041a10dbcd1","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"按照你的理论，加息降息都是利空。那**还不去做空干嘛？","listText":"按照你的理论，加息降息都是利空。那**还不去做空干嘛？","text":"按照你的理论，加息降息都是利空。那**还不去做空干嘛？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659426724","repostId":2323678027,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":659429658,"gmtCreate":1680191823774,"gmtModify":1680192402880,"author":{"id":"3550006771708118","authorId":"3550006771708118","name":"Juan_dSH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed41f9594bc0f75d9d7d484445b9c8b3","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"学习了！事出反常必有妖","listText":"学习了！事出反常必有妖","text":"学习了！事出反常必有妖","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659429658","repostId":2323678027,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":659429806,"gmtCreate":1680191650106,"gmtModify":1680191651688,"author":{"id":"3460110757345179","authorId":"3460110757345179","name":"刀锋战士阿尔法","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b42e712665aa340c451811db44011a24","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646756f1284a5a6480ed02cc4fa7d1d2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"又是你发的数据和评论！我注意上你了！","listText":"又是你发的数据和评论！我注意上你了！","text":"又是你发的数据和评论！我注意上你了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659429806","repostId":2323678027,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":23,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":5,"favoriteSize":23,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}