霸气反转！青山集团：已调配到充足的镍板现货进行交割_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

霸气反转！青山集团：已调配到充足的镍板现货进行交割

证券日报网2022-03-09

记者肖伟由于镍期货价格短期涨幅巨大，北京时间3月8日，伦敦金属交易所发布公告，决定对镍期货暂停交易，自北京时间3月8日早上8点之后交易无效，并表示将对现有交易机制“打补丁”。对于镍期货短期极端行情，市场传闻青山集团被外资逼空，后者有镍冶炼及深加工业务。业内人士表示，交易者利用持仓优势及信息优势进行恶意逼空属于非法交易，交易所理应宣布此类交易无效并谴责恶意逼空者的行为。若放任逼空行为不加以制止，...

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Modest_____
·2022-03-10
别人找到你漏洞收拾你就是恶意哈哈
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金融难民
·2022-03-10
只要国家想救，就会变成国际多头VS中国外汇储备的局面。
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期权我就看看
·2022-03-09
没做过期货，但是我的理解是，并不是准备到对应的实物可以交割就能无忧了，因为交割日之前，如果多方一直拉升，就可能逼迫青山追加保证金才能保证合约有效，那可是很大很大一笔钱，他们准备现货要花一大笔钱，然后还要准备保证金，理论上逼空方一直拉，只要你保证金不够就会爆仓，那就算有现货也是没用的。如果我理解不对请高手来指正
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- basa22回复期权我就看看:
  国内期货交易才实行每日无负债结算，而伦敦实行到期结算，所以你说交易所看你账面没钱就强平，那是国内的玩法。找到一篇文章可以看看https://marketing1.eastmoney.com/20180327848987339.html
  2022-03-10
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- 期权我就看看:
  不是你有货就不会爆仓，交易所只看你帐面的钱够不够保证金才不管你现在手里有没有现货，只要保证金不够了你就会被爆仓强平，爆仓意味着合约被取消了，你有货也是干瞪眼
  2022-03-09
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- basa22:
  只要青山能够组织到货源，就已经立于不败之地，多逼空逼的就是交不出货只能平仓离场。你想象一下青山对某公司说“兄弟有货不？前天三万的，今天我10万帮你卖了，干不干？”。现在愁的是买方
  2022-03-09
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查看更多 1 条评论
李大奔
·2022-03-09
吃瓜的给你们科普下什么叫国内置换：我们有14亿人民的民意。外资蚕豆吧
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期权梦想
·2022-03-09
你这个文章的收盘价应该是8万美金一吨而不是一手，
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6
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无尽夏日
·2022-03-09
一掐脖子就翻白眼，一松手就吹牛逼。
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2
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思考的芦苇01
·2022-03-09
已读
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你好马斯克
·2022-03-09
好像这个手法似曾相识，之前郑交所煤炭好像也是这样，玩不过你我就修改规则[笑哭] 。听说伦敦金属交易所是港交所下属企业？[强] [强] [强]
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5
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恒跌
·2022-03-09
霸气，今年我家小麦可以卖空了。
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5
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圣地麦加
·2022-03-09
还吹流弊呢。
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7
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猛逃
·2022-03-09
什么乱七八糟的[白眼]
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星垂阔野
·2022-03-09
哈哈哈哈😂就牛逼了
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1
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Laria
·2022-03-09
嘉能可就是来报仇的，这是给国内资本上了昂贵的一课，因为轻敌犯了严重错误！！我大金川最艰难的时候工人工资都发不出来。。。现在因为青山的事情却要交镍出来！凭什么！！资本做的恶就不能让资本自己解决吗？那是整个金川人民的生计啊！
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工程136
·2022-03-09
做空的事中国的青山集团，不是国外。国外是做多让中国做空机构爆仓
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3
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一路往北
·2022-03-09
取消交易，脸都不要了
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6
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坐看风起时伺机而动
·2022-03-09
又是一个热血沸腾激动人心的时刻
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1
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allen618
·2022-03-09
天下有多少，嘉能可会不知道？
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Qingshan Group: It has been deployed to sufficient nickel plate spot for delivery","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bca1bfe1134f97a0542fdba83afd4898","symbols_score_info":{"JJN":0.9},"content_text":"记者 肖伟由于镍期货价格短期涨幅巨大，北京时间3月8日，伦敦金属交易所发布公告，决定对镍期货暂停交易，自北京时间3月8日早上8点之后交易无效，并表示将对现有交易机制“打补丁”。对于镍期货短期极端行情，市场传闻青山集团被外资逼空，后者有镍冶炼及深加工业务。业内人士表示，交易者利用持仓优势及信息优势进行恶意逼空属于非法交易，交易所理应宣布此类交易无效并谴责恶意逼空者的行为。若放任逼空行为不加以制止，不仅构成恶意操纵期货市场价格行为，更直接影响伦敦金属交易所“百年交易所”的口碑信誉，还将扰乱国际金融秩序，为当前全球经济复苏及全球供应链稳定带来更多不确定性。伦镍暴涨传闻四起各方表态谴责逼空北京时间3月7日至3月8日，伦敦金属交易所综合镍03合约从29246美元上涨至101365美元，最高涨幅高达247%。市场传闻称，国内不锈钢龙头企业青山集团被外资逼空，潜在空头头寸损失可能高达60亿美元至120亿美元，恶意逼空的外资以印尼某镍矿60%股份为代价提出要挟。对此，青山集团回应称，“外资的确有些动作，正在积极协调，当前仓位和经营都没有问题。”值得一提的是，市场传闻牵涉其他各方均出面说明情况。其中，建信期货表示，“建信期货暂不具备为客户提供境外期货交易的资格，目前并未开设伦敦金属交易所交易席位。”就此回应了此前客户单位在伦敦金属交易所套期保值仓位穿仓的不实传闻。中国中冶亦表示，“中国中冶作为央企上市公司，严格遵守国资委关于审慎开展金融衍生业务的监管要求，目前无任何镍期货业务。当前，国际镍金属期货价格因受到地缘政治、低库存和金融交易因素影响，大幅、快速上涨已脱离了基本面；公司作为国际上重要的湿法镍生产和技术输出企业，价格高自然对公司有利，但短期也要关注下游市场的承接能力，中长期亦要考虑整个新能源产业链的健康发展。”3月9日午间，格林美发布公告称，没有参与镍期货交易以及经营不受镍期货事件影响。格林美进一步说明相关情况，格林美从不参与镍期货操作，当前镍期货持仓量为零，本次镍期货事件与格林美没有关系，公司各项生产经营与经营业绩均不受本次镍期货事件的影响；格林美含镍产品以月均价为计价准则实施买卖，短期镍暴跌暴涨不影响格林美买卖计价体系，对格林美经营不产生实质性影响；格林美印尼镍资源项目的建设运行不受本次镍期货事件影响。与青山集团合作开发印尼镍矿资源的华友钴业继3月8日股价跌停后，3月9日开盘即触及跌停，尽管盘中短暂打开跌停板，但最终难抵抛压以跌停价报收。3月8日，华友钴业回复投资者称，认定本次镍价暴涨是明显逼空行为，是外资抓住漏洞恶意做多。同日晚间，华友钴业在机构来电问询时出言安抚市场惊慌情绪，表示此次事件不会影响到华友钴业在印尼镍矿资源合作项目的建设，华友钴业从事新能源金属事业的决心“如同钢铁般坚定”。在此期间，伦敦金属交易所连续发布公告称，发现镍期货存在异常交易情况。为此，伦敦金属交易所预计暂停镍期货交易至不早于北京时间3月11日，宣布自北京时间3月8日早上8点之后交易无效。伦敦金属交易所还表示将对现有交易机制“打上多个补丁”，包括为镍期货设置10%的单日涨跌幅限制，剔除超过限价区域的报价，缩短交易时间至伦敦时间每日早9点开始，为大额持仓客户撮合成交价格等。时隔一日，伦敦金属交易所的攻守双方又发生了明显变化。3月9日，青山集团用旗下高冰镍置换国内金属镍板，已通过多种渠道调配到充足现货进行交割。分析机构普遍认为伦敦方面的镍期货市场多空力量逆转，前述恶意做空的外资可能面临“搬起石头砸了自己的脚”的尴尬局面。一位金属期货行业研究员向记者表示，“若按伦敦金属交易所3月8日暂停交易时最新报价80000美元/手(每手6吨)计算，假设该公司在印尼生产的金属镍成本为10000美元/吨。如果该公司能如期正常对外资多头全数交割20万吨金属镍现货，则每手可获得20000美元的毛利润，对应20万吨为6.67亿美元的毛利润。当前镍期货价格明显高出基本面需求，若是前期恶意逼空的外资敢于接下现货，可能会面临‘吃不了兜着走’的局面。随着我国海外镍矿项目逐步释放产能，镍中期供给将从紧平衡转向轻微过剩，目前瑞士银行等机构已经看淡明年交割的镍现货价格。这意味着，外资接下的镍现货将需要很长一段时间来消化。若是外资不能接下现货刻意违约，将会损失多头合约保证金，可能还会面临伦敦金属交易所的警告乃至处罚。当前，前期恶意逼空的外资已经面临‘骑虎难下’的局面。”恶意逼空实属非法参与者切莫以身犯险对上述恶意逼空手法，太平洋证券进行推演分析认为，伦敦金属交易所补救措施及时，并预计青山集团最终能完成资金筹措和调配镍交割品以妥善应对当下挑战。上述证券从业人士分析外资恶意逼空的详细手法：“青山集团2022年产镍预计为85万吨，占全球总量270万吨的30%，2021年收入规模将近3000亿元。从套期保值角度而言，该公司的20万吨镍期货空头合约并无投机成分。但是外资首先利用伦敦交易所的镍交仓品种和该公司的实际含镍产品存在一定错配，又利用地缘扰动事件催化短期涨价预期，再利用短期资金优势进行逼空，特别利用了综合镍03合约久期较短的特点，对该公司套期保值的空头头寸构成了不利影响。”他进一步解释其中错配成因：“镍期货的错配在于镍自身存在的二元供应结构。从全球产量上看，硫化镍占比30%，红土镍矿占比70%。伦敦金属交易所交易的镍是硫化镍矿体系，交割产品是纯镍板，而印尼红土镍矿是镍、铁、钴等的混合物，主要以镍铁形式存在。由于红土镍矿及产品没有成熟的期货市场可供套保，只能通过伦敦金属交易所的镍期货套保，一般比例在20%至30%。因此，出现了不能用红土镍矿产品在伦敦金属交易所交仓的错配，为外资逼空留下了可趁之机。此外，地缘扰动带来制裁事件，海外某产镍大国被剔除美元交易结算系统，且限制其对外出口通道，客观上加剧了可交割现货的紧张性，也为恶意逼空的外资创造了条件。”财信期货认为：“伦敦金属交易所的纠偏规范做法正确，不然日后其他小金属容易效仿，容易影响伦敦金属交易所‘百年交易所’口碑和信誉，最终导致金融市场混乱。预计各企业会自行检查海外套保头寸，甚至出现平仓潮。”3月8日，上海期货交易所发布通知，喊话市场参与方做好市场风险控制工作。上海期货交易所指出，“近期国际形势复杂多变，境外期货市场镍价格出现剧烈波动，上期所将视市场情况依规采取进一步措施，请会员单位和投资者做好风险防范工作，理性投资，共同维护市场平稳运行。”截至北京时间3月9日下午3点收盘时，上海期货交易所的沪镍主力合约再度一字涨停，报收于267700元/吨，涨幅为17%，上涨38890元/吨。财信期货也关注到当下国内沪镍期货的屡屡涨停，担忧国内镍期货可能形成新一轮逼空趋势，“国内镍期货的上涨确有基本面支撑，但是短期内暴涨形成逼空行情，可能是大客户持仓信息泄露导致的结果。若是本身为镍冶炼及深加工企业，却大举做多镍期货合约，不仅是异常交易行为，更是违法投机及不法获利行为，国内交易所理应宣告此类交易行为及结果无效。虽然国内期货和衍生品法还没有正式颁布，但是对于恶意逼空有相关惩戒机制。只要国内交易所发现有操纵市场的行为，是有针对性措施的，包括但不限于限制开仓、只许平仓、冻结账户、没收非法所得、追究刑事责任等。”北京市盈科(无锡)律师事务所齐程军律师赞同上述观点并补充：“我国期货和衍生品法草案中第二十四条有明确规定，禁止以单独或者合谋，集中资金优势、持仓优势或者利用信息优势联合或者连续买卖合约。当下沪镍期货连续涨停，也有形成逼空行情的可能性，奉劝参与者切莫以身犯险。”值得一提的是，由于逼空事件后续情况浮出水面，盘面紧张气氛开始消退，国内A股市场涉镍企业股价应声下跌。东方财富CHOICE终端显示，截至3月9日收盘，盛屯矿业以跌停价报收，收盘价为9.95元；青岛中程跌幅为19.92%，收盘价为14.75元；中国中冶跌幅为7.27%，收盘价为4.21元；格林美跌幅为6.53%，收盘价为8.88元。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":635345070,"gmtCreate":1646873282643,"gmtModify":1646875460307,"author":{"id":"3545952783029765","authorId":"3545952783029765","name":"Modest_____","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79be4ce923d5d1969707a2d48f816903","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"别人找到你漏洞收拾你就是恶意哈哈","listText":"别人找到你漏洞收拾你就是恶意哈哈","text":"别人找到你漏洞收拾你就是恶意哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635345070","repostId":2218281372,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":635356842,"gmtCreate":1646865490488,"gmtModify":1646875401654,"author":{"id":"3577141242132863","authorId":"3577141242132863","name":"金融难民","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dc1314eab6cf40dfe1cb68bb1cd0d06","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"只要国家想救，就会变成国际多头VS中国外汇储备的局面。","listText":"只要国家想救，就会变成国际多头VS中国外汇储备的局面。","text":"只要国家想救，就会变成国际多头VS中国外汇储备的局面。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635356842","repostId":2218281372,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":635388995,"gmtCreate":1646836403236,"gmtModify":1646836403236,"author":{"id":"3489542956853100","authorId":"3489542956853100","name":"期权我就看看","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51ccadd35dd38328efbbd9d4c7c9fb33","vip":1,"crmLevel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