以史为鉴，此前两次美国债务上限危机的发酵与影响_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

以史为鉴，此前两次美国债务上限危机的发酵与影响

川阅全球宏观2021-09-29

本周随着美国两党在债务上限谈判陷入僵局，金融市场开始担心美国债务违约的风险。正如美国财政部长耶伦在9月28日的参议院听证会上所述“如果在10月18日触及债务上限之前不采取行动提高或暂停债务上限，将带来灾难性的后果，包括金融危机和经济衰退”。显然隔夜美股的大跌已经反映出这种担忧，并且随着10月18日的临近，这种担忧很可能国庆期间在海外市场进一步蔓延。历史来看，美国债务在飙升后都引发了债务上限的...

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中国ChinaATM
·2021-09-30
不要危言耸听
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hhyw
·2021-09-30
请点赞和回复
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4
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- 滚股怪:
  Ok
  2021-09-30
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CKWAI
·2021-09-30
来，回复和点赞，谢谢
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- CKWAI:
  谢谢
  2021-09-30
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华尔街小街
·2021-09-30
影响个球，发帖骗稿费
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3
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- 神话者:
  [微笑]
  2021-09-30
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SDLiuSG
·2021-09-30
Good
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- SDLiuSG:
  sharing
  2021-09-30
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EricBong
·2021-09-30
好
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4
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Sen001
·2021-09-30
这[财迷]
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- Sen001:
  [财迷]
  2021-09-30
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- 十八顺:
  没事 [微笑]
  2021-09-30
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Youn7276
·2021-09-30
阅
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开洱文
·2021-09-29
66
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- 开洱文:
  66
  2021-09-29
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龙腾虎乐
·2021-09-29
放心，没那么大影响
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落日_9734
·2021-09-29
不可能违约美国没傻到自送美元前程的程度
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- zh2021:
  [嘘]
  2021-09-29
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- Youn7276:
  好
  2021-09-30
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- 红金鱼辣椒:
  嗯🤔
  2021-09-30
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0.25%，并减少10月就业人数12万。\n从金融市场的角度，如表1和表2所示，2011年债务危机引发的波动比2013年要大的多。2011年7月22日-8月10日间，标普500指数跌幅近17%，10年期美债收益率下行82bps（图3），避险情绪下黄金飙升近13%（表1）。大类资产中，债务危机对于美债影响的持续性尤为显著，持续了三个多月。\n\n\n\n本次债务上限的问题被卷入两党关于拜登基建计划的博弈中，有持续发酵的风险，后续发展有两种可能性：\n情景一：债务上限谈判继续与政府停摆问题绑定。由于共和党已经明确反对在政府短期拨款协议（CR）中纳入暂停债务上限的讨论，因此如果两者继续绑定，短期内美国政府关门的风险加大，甚至可能在十一期间关门，部分经济数据也可能被推迟发布（如月初的非农就业数据）。\n情景二：债务上限谈判与政府停摆问题分开。优先处理政府关门问题，后续风险的持续性取决于债务上限谈判的持续时间，最终解决方式包括预算决议或者两党达成一致协议。这种情景下，风险将延后至10月中下旬。\n尽管我们认为两党最终会达成协议，但在该时点前后，可能与2011年类似，对市场产生较大影响，甚至可能影响到当前市场已经price 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