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蚂蚁打新，中签率预估100%

格隆汇2020-10-27

全球最大IPO今日招股头顶着A股首家科技互联网巨头，全球最大IPO光环的蚂蚁集团，于10月26日晚间正式公布定价。蚂蚁集团A股代码688688，定价68.8元/股，A股超额配售选择权行使前，预计募集资金总额为1149.45亿元，A股超额配售选择权全额行使，预计募资金额1321.65亿元。按照A股募资规模，此前最大募资规模为中芯国际（688981）532亿元，蚂蚁集团是其募资规模的2倍。H股代码...

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汐汐哈哈
·2020-10-28
期待
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马斯克跟班
·2020-10-28
会爆仓吗？？
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undefined
·2020-10-27
不敢买全民都买的时候就不敢买了
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常山子龙
·2020-10-27
不申购，上市即破发
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嫑賣C
·2020-10-27
100的中签率，真是钱多烫手吗？上市送钱送温暖呢？80的股价，对传统银行业是数倍了，纵使蚂蚁这样的数字金融，开局就是别人难以企及的巅峰，真怕不是要透支了未来几年的利润空间
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煜翰
·2020-10-27
赚点零花钱
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丁蟹吧
·2020-10-27
垃圾马云，搞崩实体经济，还要搞崩金融体系
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2
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丁蟹吧
·2020-10-27
垃圾马云，大骗子，忽悠全中国人，搞崩盘实体经济，还有搞崩盘金融体系
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真的英雄
·2020-10-27
划不来
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华尔街小街
·2020-10-27
别说没提醒，等着破发。
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1
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第二菠萝.
·2020-10-27
一个搞金融的伪装成高科技来坑蒙拐骗
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超级卢卡斯
·2020-10-27
破发就当股东了
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zhch
·2020-10-27
预估满世界鬼哭狼嚎
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潜伏中博弈
·2020-10-27
破发定了
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鱼多鱼
·2020-10-27
普惠金融？
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100%","themeId":"f429a0a2a7fa409ab541efddd1c758c1","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4664abc80f6943fd0c07797618230890","symbols_score_info":{"06688":0.9},"content_text":"全球最大IPO今日招股头顶着A股首家科技互联网巨头，全球最大IPO光环的蚂蚁集团，于10月26日晚间正式公布定价。蚂蚁集团A股代码688688，定价68.8元/股，A股超额配售选择权行使前，预计募集资金总额为1149.45亿元，A股超额配售选择权全额行使，预计募资金额1321.65亿元。按照A股募资规模，此前最大募资规模为中芯国际（688981）532亿元，蚂蚁集团是其募资规模的2倍。H股代码06688，定价为80港元/股。两地募资总额超出约2400亿元人民币（约345亿美元）。按照此价格计算，蚂蚁集团总市值2.1万亿元。与此前多家投行预测的2.5万亿-3万亿元，折让20%-30%。超越沙特阿美，获全球最大IPO已成定局。如两日前创始人马云“外滩峰会”中的言论一致“蚂蚁的定价是人类史上最大规模的融资定价”作为投资者务必凑个热闹。蚂蚁集团的背后有着令人羡慕的盈利和用户基础，更加令人羡慕的则是他标的稀缺性，在蚂蚁集团IPO的进程中，我们终于走到了最后一个阶段。投资还是要落到实处，作为普通投资者要如何凑这热闹？当务之急很明显就是参与蚂蚁集团二级市场的打新。A股投资者10月29日（本周四）可进行网上和网下申购，H股于10月27日（今日）开始参与公开发售，11月5日正式挂牌。科创板打新认购策略根据公告显示，蚂蚁将在A股发行不超过16.7亿股的新股，其中本次A股发行初始战略配售的股票数量13.4亿股，占A股（“绿鞋”前）初始发行量80%。似乎有意减轻二级市场压力，同时也在最大程度上利好打新投资者。战略投资者包括阿里集团等全球六大主权基金，并承诺本次配售股票中限售期限为12个月-24个月，其中全国社保持股2.3%。而二级市场发行20%，也就说留给机构和个人投资者“打新”股票有3.34亿股（“绿鞋”前），按照每股价格计算，绿鞋前A股募资总额1149.45亿元，那么打新参与规模可超过220亿元。实际上，机构投资大比例认购优质标的，新股属于常规操作，例如阿里巴巴赴港上市之时，机构配售比例均为90%，此前上市的中芯国际战投占比50%。那么此次参与科创板顶格申购是否100%中签？根据过往科创板新股中，中签率最高的前两名为中国通号，0.23%，申购上限25.2万股，第二为，中芯国际，0.21%，申购上限为42.1万股。根据A股发行安排，超额配售权启动后，单个账户顶格申购上限为31.7万股，预估此次蚂蚁科创板打新中签率为0.2%左右，网上顶格申购需配置沪市市值317万，可获配号643个，参与科创板打新顶格申购中签率为100%。当然，科创板能够100%中签，但因门槛限制拦下不少人。满足20个交易日证券账户资金日均不低于50万元人民币，参与24个月的证券交易门槛，让很多投资者无法参与此次蚂蚁集团上市红利，好在蚂蚁集团A+H两地同步上市。科创板无法参与打新，投资者可绕道港股参与。港股打新认购策略H股今日开始招股代码为：蚂蚁集团（06688）招股总数：1,670,706,000股招股价：80港元/股，每手50股入场费：4040.31元乙组头：545.65万联席保荐人：花旗、摩根大通、摩根士丹利及中金绿鞋：有基石：无（蚂蚁表示不需要）招股时间：10.27-10.30日根据市场最新消息，蚂蚁集团开售仅一个小时，H股机构部分IPO已经超额认购，刷新市场记录。据悉，大部分都是10亿美金级别的大订单。对于普通投资者而言，蚂蚁此次入场费表现十分亲民，4040入场费很大程度限制了大户的操作，阳光普照，人人都有机会赢得双11前的红包雨，参与申购绝对是正确的选择。一手中签率预测：公开发售部分4176.77万股，每手50股，公开总发行手数83.53万手，甲乙组各41.76万手。按照目前打新人数与股，此次申购至少80-100万人参与比较合理，超额认购板上钉钉。根据公告显示，此次公开发售最大回拨至10%，甲乙组至167万手，1手中签率预估80%以上，接近人人有份，此次蚂蚁估值2.1万亿，参考此前阿里巴巴预计此次蚂蚁涨幅10%-15%左右，即中签一手蚂蚁，不考虑成本的情况下也可以盈利400-1200港币。享受阿里的盛宴，应积极申购。认购策略：甲组1手党：香港新股发行规则中红鞋政策红利依旧，可以选择每个账户只打一手，建议投资者选择现金参与一手党。是否考虑参与一手融呢？入场费比较低的情况下，一般不建议一手融，同时根据一手融成本计算，认购手续费100，利息预估2港元，中签费40.71港元。以一手中签成本约100+2+40.71=142.71港元，初步计算打和点3.57%，预估涨幅10%-15%个点，扣除卖出费用100元，一手收益低于500港币。相比之下一手现金性价比超高。乙组策略：蚂蚁公开部分募资约33.4亿，顶格回拨之后公开部分约133.6亿，乙组约66.8亿。对比此前农夫山泉，按照农夫山泉的5218亿来估算，乙组平均中签率为1.28%。乙头8万市值，约20手。蚂蚁集团按20倍杠杆来算，28.25万本金打乙头1400手中20手，5天计息，融资利息3.5%计算约2570港币左右，10倍杠杆需140手，56.5万本金打乙头，融资利息3.5%计算约2438元港币预计乙头中签7-15手，打和点4%-8%左右，预估涨幅10%-15%，每个乙头约1万所有收益。又到了乙组抢破头的时候了，今日还有几家券商可以提供10-20倍孖展，手脚要快。那么甲组好还是乙组好？由于此次预估中签率接近90%，那么偏向于一手党，从成本和效率上笔者选择大部分账户可以选择现金1手申购。抢到高倍孖展则参与乙头。与此同时，港股打新也提供暗盘交易，由于其他原因无法中签者，可以择时择机，暗盘交易时捞几手。少有会飞的大象随着定价的敲定，估值也尘埃落定。回顾估值，2018年，蚂蚁集团的估值达到了1.16万港币。7月8日，1.5万亿港币；7月29日，1.65万亿港币；8月21日，1.74万亿港币；9月21日，1.9万亿港币；10月16日，2.17万亿港币；10月22日，2.8万亿港币~3.56万亿港币；10月26日，最终按68.8元（80港币）发行定价，发行市值约2.1万亿港币，放在A股，已超过贵州茅台3000亿美元，荣登市值第一。根据中金、摩根士丹利、花旗、摩根大通等主要投行的盈利预测，蚂蚁未来两年（2022年）预期市盈率仅24倍。笔者认为蚂蚁集团依然具有较大的上升空间，从长期投资角度看，蚂蚁此次发行重点在于战略配售比重高，重点吸引更多长线的机构增量资金进入市场，加上社保基金入市投资蚂蚁，对于蚂蚁长期投资的价值均有所认可，想象空间巨大，长期投资也将获取丰厚回报。短期从IPO的角度看，尽管有绿鞋，无基石，亲民的定价以及回拨机制都给蚂蚁上市后的表现留足了想象空间。作为一家伟大的公司，上市后将成为国内上市公司中市值规模第一，蚂蚁的上市应该载入历史，小，即是美好。小，蕴含力量。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":308309034,"gmtCreate":1603854111228,"gmtModify":1703830960721,"author":{"id":"3561121457632059","authorId":"3561121457632059","name":"汐汐哈哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27303b0a2319091cfa9eced112c71da","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"期待","listText":"期待","text":"期待","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308309034","repostId":2078502227,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":308986411,"gmtCreate":1603839893033,"gmtModify":1703830892039,"author":{"id":"3563968856264998","authorId":"3563968856264998","name":"马斯克跟班","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcc539ec1807d6b340dc6e39d44eff6","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"会爆仓吗？？","listText":"会爆仓吗？？","text":"会爆仓吗？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308986411","repostId":2078502227,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":308087099,"gmtCreate":1603799991311,"gmtModify":1703830764889,"author":{"id":"3465039675788441","authorId":"3465039675788441","name":"undefined","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f3bb693c3070c17c8ad782566ac8eb8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"不敢买 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