Bull Run Enters Late Cycle_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Bull Run Enters Late Cycle

Seeking Alpha2021-12-13

Summary The short-term correction has probably not ended yet. Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential. The Fed could face tough challenges ...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

243

kuehlapis
·2021-12-13
time in the market, not timing the market!
回复
1
举报
kuehlapis
·2021-12-13
time in the market, not timing the market!
回复
1
举报
收起
- bernardtayet:
  Fully agreed with your insight
  2021-12-19
  回复
  举报
Huatkor
·2021-12-13
Oh no
回复
2
举报
MHh
·2021-12-13
The long standing truth is market is unpredictable! No one expected the market to recover so quickly after the last bear and continue on the bull run![Sly]
回复
6
举报
收起
- MHh:
  [Smile]
  2021-12-13
  回复
  举报
- Gladys8jk:
  😅
  2021-12-13
  回复
  举报
Bonds
·2021-12-13
Bulls run
回复
3
举报
收起
- Aoyjai:
  And run and run and huff and puff …..
  2021-12-13
  回复
  举报
RieslingHawk
·2021-12-13
Market tank after J Powell speaks on Wednesday
回复
1
举报
7united
·2021-12-13
It’s hard to time the market
回复
3
举报
Aivern
·2021-12-13
So basically, it looks like it's going down but eventually will go up but it's hard to say so here we are. Lol
回复
4
举报
blackblack1
·2021-12-13
Like
回复
6
举报
hohok
·2021-12-13
Like pls
回复
3
举报
koolgal
·2021-12-13
Good to know that we are still on bull run! It is never a straight line up or down but hang on tight to those stocks you believe in because it is just noise in the short run. It is the lo g run that matters! Investing is never a sprint but a marathon! But it keeps you on your tippy toes! 🎉🎊🎉
回复
26
举报
收起
- koolgal:
  Good to know. Thanks
  2021-12-14
  回复
  举报
- 扶不起阿斗:
  seeking alpha has the most bullshit like Bloomberg. they are paid to write like this
  2021-12-13
  回复
  举报
- koolgal:
  Thanks
  2021-12-13
  回复
  举报
查看更多 1 条评论
JeffRC
·2021-12-13
This is interesting
回复
5
举报
Sabre78
·2021-12-13
Interesting to read this article
回复
3
举报
收起
- Bspn:
  ok
  2021-12-13
  回复
  举报
男明星
·2021-12-13
🚀🚀🚀
回复
1
举报
robot1234
·2021-12-13
US is pulling out all the stops to prolong the extraordinary bull cycle despite the Covid pandemic. Biden still needs to continue with massive printing of USD and ultra loose monetary policy despite record 40-year high inflation rate at 6.8%.
回复
5
举报
收起
- PearlynCSY:
  US inflation now at 40-year high
  2021-12-27
  回复
  举报
HBG
·2021-12-13
Hello
回复
4
举报
收起
- JBT:
  Hi
  2021-12-13
  回复
  举报
- HBG:
  Good morning
  2021-12-13
  回复
  举报
ivy888
·2021-12-13
Like
回复
3
举报
Roykhor77
·2021-12-13
Nice
回复
4
举报
收起
- ivy888:
  ok
  2021-12-13
  回复
  举报
Samwich
·2021-12-13
L
回复
4
举报
收起
- TiggerBaby:
  thanks
  2021-12-13
  回复
  举报
- Roykhor77:
  Nice
  2021-12-13
  回复
  举报
Wallstrtbets
·2021-12-13
Dun bs.
回复
2
举报

热议股票

7x24

全部

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1169099899","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle","media":"Seeking Alpha","content":"<div>\nSummary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-13 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","article_id":"1169099899","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"牛市进入晚周期","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":604234114,"gmtCreate":1639400740099,"gmtModify":1639400747824,"author":{"id":"3574029017802033","authorId":"3574029017802033","name":"kuehlapis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/732ffeea71fc0732b84f029cc0e8263e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574029017802033","idStr":"3574029017802033"},"htmlText":"time in the market, not timing the market!","listText":"time in the market, not timing the market!","text":"time in the market, not timing the market!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604234114","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604234015,"gmtCreate":1639400714658,"gmtModify":1639400715893,"author":{"id":"3574029017802033","authorId":"3574029017802033","name":"kuehlapis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/732ffeea71fc0732b84f029cc0e8263e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574029017802033","idStr":"3574029017802033"},"htmlText":"time in the market, not timing the market!","listText":"time in the market, not timing the market!","text":"time in the market, not timing the market!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604234015","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7045114,"gmtCreate":1639925268913,"gmtModify":1639925268948,"authorId":3583377018896117,"author":{"id":3583377018896117,"idStr":"3583377018896117","authorId":3583377018896117,"name":"bernardtayet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e8c1fc37a4bff2a94af98953cff267","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604234015,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Fully agreed with your insight","text":"Fully agreed with your insight","html":"Fully agreed with your insight"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604203957,"gmtCreate":1639396808290,"gmtModify":1639396808841,"author":{"id":"3581919183376534","authorId":"3581919183376534","name":"Huatkor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3897aace055b5fa9f58089c1e880d8","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581919183376534","idStr":"3581919183376534"},"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604203957","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604626913,"gmtCreate":1639390083250,"gmtModify":1639390095933,"author":{"id":"4091758936365950","authorId":"4091758936365950","name":"MHh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b2feced9ef5dcc9e95997d1f4db280","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4091758936365950","idStr":"4091758936365950"},"htmlText":"The long standing truth is market is unpredictable! No one expected the market to recover so quickly after the last bear and continue on the bull run![Sly]&nbsp;","listText":"The long standing truth is market is unpredictable! No one expected the market to recover so quickly after the last bear and continue on the bull run![Sly]&nbsp;","text":"The long standing truth is market is unpredictable! No one expected the market to recover so quickly after the last bear and continue on the bull run![Sly]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604626913","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6964007,"gmtCreate":1639394340396,"gmtModify":1639394340477,"authorId":4091758936365950,"author":{"id":4091758936365950,"idStr":"4091758936365950","authorId":4091758936365950,"name":"MHh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b2feced9ef5dcc9e95997d1f4db280","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604626913,"type":1,"supId":6963903,"prevId":0,"content":"[Smile]","text":"[Smile]","html":"[Smile]"},{"id":6963903,"gmtCreate":1639393251704,"gmtModify":1639393251802,"authorId":4094787128284850,"author":{"id":4094787128284850,"idStr":"4094787128284850","authorId":4094787128284850,"name":"Gladys8jk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789bbf473867763cd44be080e269826d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604626913,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"😅","text":"😅","html":"😅"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604685253,"gmtCreate":1639387499077,"gmtModify":1639387924176,"author":{"id":"3582366643541036","authorId":"3582366643541036","name":"Bonds","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7927febac32666ca13d21b532f0ff6f6","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582366643541036","idStr":"3582366643541036"},"htmlText":"Bulls run&nbsp;","listText":"Bulls run&nbsp;","text":"Bulls run","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604685253","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6964218,"gmtCreate":1639396458270,"gmtModify":1639396458379,"authorId":3578371382142637,"author":{"id":3578371382142637,"idStr":"3578371382142637","authorId":3578371382142637,"name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604685253,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"And run and run and huff and puff …..","text":"And run and run and huff and puff …..","html":"And run and run and huff and puff ….."}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604688607,"gmtCreate":1639387051617,"gmtModify":1639387222976,"author":{"id":"3578973717832794","authorId":"3578973717832794","name":"RieslingHawk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5390eacc9599c6447d4c42f983fcc76","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578973717832794","idStr":"3578973717832794"},"htmlText":"Market tank after J Powell speaks on Wednesday&nbsp;","listText":"Market tank after J Powell speaks on Wednesday&nbsp;","text":"Market tank after J Powell speaks on Wednesday","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604688607","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604637097,"gmtCreate":1639384649819,"gmtModify":1639384649968,"author":{"id":"4101867685462840","authorId":"4101867685462840","name":"7united","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58862424d0a0bd2f497e595d175522e","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4101867685462840","idStr":"4101867685462840"},"htmlText":"It’s hard to time the market&nbsp;","listText":"It’s hard to time the market&nbsp;","text":"It’s hard to time the market","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604637097","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604630760,"gmtCreate":1639382946566,"gmtModify":1639382946767,"author":{"id":"4097767435236930","authorId":"4097767435236930","name":"Aivern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3827d6c7271c872fcc616eaa9b4f7f54","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4097767435236930","idStr":"4097767435236930"},"htmlText":"So basically, it looks like it's going down but eventually will go up but it's hard to say so here we are. Lol&nbsp;","listText":"So basically, it looks like it's going down but eventually will go up but it's hard to say so here we are. Lol&nbsp;","text":"So basically, it looks like it's going down but eventually will go up but it's hard to say so here we are. Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604630760","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604694157,"gmtCreate":1639382404712,"gmtModify":1639382404853,"author":{"id":"4087735305621010","authorId":"4087735305621010","name":"blackblack1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77a3f9b815b90862b1826692953a69dd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4087735305621010","idStr":"4087735305621010"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604694157","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604695643,"gmtCreate":1639382309083,"gmtModify":1639382309832,"author":{"id":"3581844295426037","authorId":"3581844295426037","name":"hohok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ae72338572431c58f911b40ae0f930","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581844295426037","idStr":"3581844295426037"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604695643","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604601856,"gmtCreate":1639379778377,"gmtModify":1639381160400,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3559581955535845","idStr":"3559581955535845"},"htmlText":"Good to know that we are still on bull run!&nbsp; It is never a straight line up or down but hang on tight to those stocks you believe in because it is just noise in the short run. It is the lo g run that matters!&nbsp; Investing is never a sprint but a marathon!&nbsp; But it keeps you on your tippy toes!&nbsp; 🎉🎊🎉","listText":"Good to know that we are still on bull run!&nbsp; It is never a straight line up or down but hang on tight to those stocks you believe in because it is just noise in the short run. It is the lo g run that matters!&nbsp; Investing is never a sprint but a marathon!&nbsp; But it keeps you on your tippy toes!&nbsp; 🎉🎊🎉","text":"Good to know that we are still on bull run! It is never a straight line up or down but hang on tight to those stocks you believe in because it is just noise in the short run. It is the lo g run that matters! Investing is never a sprint but a marathon! But it keeps you on your tippy toes! 🎉🎊🎉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":26,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604601856","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6968185,"gmtCreate":1639431404750,"gmtModify":1639431404750,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604601856,"type":1,"supId":6965259,"prevId":0,"content":"Good to know.&nbsp; Thanks","text":"Good to know.&nbsp; Thanks","html":"Good to know.&nbsp; Thanks"},{"id":6965259,"gmtCreate":1639403011126,"gmtModify":1639403192477,"authorId":4097965524290580,"author":{"id":4097965524290580,"idStr":"4097965524290580","authorId":4097965524290580,"name":"扶不起阿斗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/937e9051377887d804ada94cba430f5f","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.24","exceedPercentage":"80.09%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604601856,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"seeking alpha has the most bullshit like Bloomberg. they are paid to write like this","text":"seeking alpha has the most bullshit like Bloomberg. they are paid to write like this","html":"seeking alpha has the most bullshit like Bloomberg. they are paid to write like this"},{"id":6963134,"gmtCreate":1639387070860,"gmtModify":1639387070860,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604601856,"type":1,"supId":6963016,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","html":"Thanks"},{"id":6963016,"gmtCreate":1639386269447,"gmtModify":1639386269482,"authorId":3569881740421551,"author":{"id":3569881740421551,"idStr":"3569881740421551","authorId":3569881740421551,"name":"Tayhs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c6192c150a987ab2c12c655cfdfabc","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604601856,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[Smile]","text":"[Smile]","html":"[Smile]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604600284,"gmtCreate":1639379100046,"gmtModify":1639379100222,"author":{"id":"3575901346969727","authorId":"3575901346969727","name":"JeffRC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575901346969727","idStr":"3575901346969727"},"htmlText":"This is interesting","listText":"This is interesting","text":"This is interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604600284","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604600974,"gmtCreate":1639379000281,"gmtModify":1639379000404,"author":{"id":"3583662661619311","authorId":"3583662661619311","name":"Sabre78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0245878eb3debb164249e113a3a68836","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3583662661619311","idStr":"3583662661619311"},"htmlText":"Interesting to read this article&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting to read this article&nbsp;","text":"Interesting to read this article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604600974","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6962200,"gmtCreate":1639379241449,"gmtModify":1639379241548,"authorId":3582502134655895,"author":{"id":3582502134655895,"idStr":"3582502134655895","authorId":3582502134655895,"name":"Bspn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604600974,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604851802,"gmtCreate":1639374396516,"gmtModify":1639374396629,"author":{"id":"4101597725397040","authorId":"4101597725397040","name":"男明星","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30b6decb3d47ffa85fe289541ad687d4","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4101597725397040","idStr":"4101597725397040"},"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604851802","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604850899,"gmtCreate":1639373892818,"gmtModify":1639376191839,"author":{"id":"3561596430587504","authorId":"3561596430587504","name":"robot1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3561596430587504","idStr":"3561596430587504"},"htmlText":"US is pulling out all the stops to prolong the extraordinary bull cycle despite the Covid pandemic. Biden still needs&nbsp;to continue with massive printing of USD and ultra loose monetary policy despite record 40-year high&nbsp;inflation rate at 6.8%.","listText":"US is pulling out all the stops to prolong the extraordinary bull cycle despite the Covid pandemic. Biden still needs&nbsp;to continue with massive printing of USD and ultra loose monetary policy despite record 40-year high&nbsp;inflation rate at 6.8%.","text":"US is pulling out all the stops to prolong the extraordinary bull cycle despite the Covid pandemic. Biden still needs to continue with massive printing of USD and ultra loose monetary policy despite record 40-year high inflation rate at 6.8%.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604850899","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7113810,"gmtCreate":1640560023740,"gmtModify":1640560023834,"authorId":4092458811577680,"author":{"id":4092458811577680,"idStr":"4092458811577680","authorId":4092458811577680,"name":"PearlynCSY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e9fe7af061efe80a756d23de62e7b3","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604850899,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"US inflation now at 40-year high","text":"US inflation now at 40-year high","html":"US inflation now at 40-year high"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604828302,"gmtCreate":1639372909750,"gmtModify":1639372911797,"author":{"id":"3586502447028517","authorId":"3586502447028517","name":"HBG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586502447028517","idStr":"3586502447028517"},"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604828302","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6961550,"gmtCreate":1639373415392,"gmtModify":1639373415434,"authorId":3581751165798598,"author":{"id":3581751165798598,"idStr":"3581751165798598","authorId":3581751165798598,"name":"JBT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ffd34e99f27855f8ef139a4bdb4503f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604828302,"type":1,"supId":6961464,"prevId":0,"content":"Hi","text":"Hi","html":"Hi"},{"id":6961464,"gmtCreate":1639372916888,"gmtModify":1639372916971,"authorId":3586502447028517,"author":{"id":3586502447028517,"idStr":"3586502447028517","authorId":3586502447028517,"name":"HBG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604828302,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good morning","text":"Good morning","html":"Good morning"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604821489,"gmtCreate":1639372837634,"gmtModify":1639372838601,"author":{"id":"3579641974902127","authorId":"3579641974902127","name":"ivy888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10358949b7fc96b011ec29ca7fd9c9a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579641974902127","idStr":"3579641974902127"},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604821489","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604821507,"gmtCreate":1639372831487,"gmtModify":1639372832245,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577415925422402","idStr":"3577415925422402"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604821507","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6961449,"gmtCreate":1639372841930,"gmtModify":1639372842019,"authorId":3579641974902127,"author":{"id":3579641974902127,"idStr":"3579641974902127","authorId":3579641974902127,"name":"ivy888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10358949b7fc96b011ec29ca7fd9c9a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604821507,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604823717,"gmtCreate":1639372739236,"gmtModify":1639372739425,"author":{"id":"3575000650579772","authorId":"3575000650579772","name":"Samwich","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/333bbe08da61ec501a2da43a65e31462","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575000650579772","idStr":"3575000650579772"},"htmlText":"L","listText":"L","text":"L","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604823717","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6962395,"gmtCreate":1639380744718,"gmtModify":1639380744752,"authorId":4095117092393450,"author":{"id":4095117092393450,"idStr":"4095117092393450","authorId":4095117092393450,"name":"TiggerBaby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92afc92c743cbc82bdc0ccd1a404f3e0","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604823717,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"thanks","text":"thanks","html":"thanks"},{"id":6961445,"gmtCreate":1639372826577,"gmtModify":1639372826686,"authorId":3577415925422402,"author":{"id":3577415925422402,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorId":3577415925422402,"name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604823717,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice","text":"Nice","html":"Nice"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604820872,"gmtCreate":1639372335216,"gmtModify":1639372337707,"author":{"id":"3566244878628904","authorId":"3566244878628904","name":"Wallstrtbets","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c38bbee1121ea92508ad9508fa15c5e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3566244878628904","idStr":"3566244878628904"},"htmlText":"Dun bs.","listText":"Dun bs.","text":"Dun bs.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604820872","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-13 11:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.<blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)<blockquote>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</blockquote> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.<blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.<blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.<blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)<blockquote>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</blockquote> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.<blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.<blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":243,"commentSize":27,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}