达里奥：几乎所有人都低估了中国，低配了人民币资产_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

达里奥：几乎所有人都低估了中国，低配了人民币资产

阿皮亚2020-10-27

“我认为，现在几乎所有人都低估了中国，如果你去看看那些跟世界资本化相关的指标，中国都是被低估的。当然这从某种程度上说也很正常，毕竟各地的投资者都更习惯用储备货币投资和进行储蓄，对中国资本市场的配置自然会比较低。但是，现在第一步必须是要分散地布局中国资本市场，换句话说，你需要在中国的各类资产中找到自己的平衡……在这之后你可以进行一些与资产定价相关的战术性操作，但首先，一定要去接触中国资本市场，...

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小韭菜爱收割
·2020-10-28
这些老外是老外吗，我感觉我真的是老外了，没感觉到说的跟感受到的一样。欢迎这些老外移民过来，让他们放弃他们的国籍
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- 天天天天涨停板:
  长期混迹这里，看到缺乏监管，忽悠容易挣钱容易吧，高高的举起镰刀，一个字，坏[惊吓]
  2020-10-28
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- Krlin:
  就喜欢看你们对现状不满又无法改变的样子～～
  2020-10-28
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墨池思存
·2020-10-28
原则
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1
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- 墨池思存:
  是吗
  2020-10-29
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丹青
·2020-10-28
这家伙又要想忽悠韭菜进场然后好割韭菜
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5
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谋远
·2020-10-28
有益的方面是提供了一个金融视角看世界的未来，局限的地方是对经济、政治，乃至信仰对文明的作用理解有限，总体来看，还是以推销自己的投资理念和基金为目的，不失为一个精明的投资家。
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稳之道
·2020-10-27
世界上98%以上都看不起社会主义国家，不过这次疫情确实体现出来社会主义制度优越性，能使14亿人步调一致战胜疫情是一件了不起的事情。
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3
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- 小韭菜爱收割:
  良心不值钱啊
  2020-10-28
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敏敏猪__
·2020-10-27
太长了，能长话短说高度总结一下？
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- KEINS:
  就是忽悠你回去买a股，这老头子这么看好中国，怎么不来这里生活？？？
  2020-10-28
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- 申屠青竹:
  标题就够了
  2020-10-28
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gocmp
·2020-10-27
原则
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Running_r
·2020-10-27
“受到掣肘的人们终将找到替代品。”明白人。
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猛逃
·2020-10-27
某在大陆混的老外向一个刚来的老外介绍：要是缺💰了，就高喊＂我爱死中国了⋯＂于是就来钱了。如果再加上一句：美国要完了⋯，效果更好，💰来的更多[财迷]
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- OMG买它:
  我们中国真是太厉害了
  2020-10-28
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- 幸运的卢克:
  伏拉夫综合症
  2020-10-28
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- 日进斗金8888:
  竟说什么大实话
  2020-10-28
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EricPhang
·2020-10-27
快来接盘，还等什么！
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6
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一天翻一番
·2020-10-27
哈哈哈哈哈晚节不保啊
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葉少阳
·2020-10-27
达里奥看到了未来
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-10-27
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沉船
·2020-10-27
他也被套了？
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-10-27
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咩咩咩大人
·2020-10-27
骗外国人到我大a当韭菜？国内的韭菜已经被割的长不起来了
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做交易
·2020-10-27
然而这货并没有大举入资。估计是拿钱说点好话。他敢不敢50%配置人民币资产？😂
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- OMG买它:
  嘴炮爱国
  2020-10-28
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- 做交易:
  3%都没有。这货主力都在北美和欧洲。从香港都撤资了。他傻吗
  2020-10-27
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- inner peace:
  有10%就相当不错了[无语]
  2020-10-27
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iAm22
·2020-10-27
达里奥是真挺中国啊[开心]
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- 成神易为圣难之剑指苍天回复iAm22:
  嗯嗯
  2020-10-28
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- KEINS回复iAm22:
  你脑子绝对已经坏了
  2020-10-28
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- iAm22:
  知道年轻的时候还受邀过来指导我们怎么搞金融和我朝情谊深不过我也喜欢所以我也有他的两本书[财迷]
  2020-10-27
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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Nc1n_qD3CcZI1RnyqLJ_Vg><strong>阿皮亚</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“我认为，现在几乎所有人都低估了中国，如果你去看看那些跟世界资本化相关的指标，中国都是被低估的。\n当然这从某种程度上说也很正常，毕竟各地的投资者都更习惯用储备货币投资和进行储蓄，对中国资本市场的配置自然会比较低。\n但是，现在第一步必须是要分散地布局中国资本市场，换句话说，你需要在中国的各类资产中找到自己的平衡……在这之后你可以进行一些与资产定价相关的战术性操作，但首先，一定要去接触中国资本市场，...</p>\n\n<a 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assets.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42edb242a8b679fc77caa1a6baced53d","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"“我认为，现在几乎所有人都低估了中国，如果你去看看那些跟世界资本化相关的指标，中国都是被低估的。\n当然这从某种程度上说也很正常，毕竟各地的投资者都更习惯用储备货币投资和进行储蓄，对中国资本市场的配置自然会比较低。\n但是，现在第一步必须是要分散地布局中国资本市场，换句话说，你需要在中国的各类资产中找到自己的平衡……在这之后你可以进行一些与资产定价相关的战术性操作，但首先，一定要去接触中国资本市场，包括储备一些人民币。”\n“我相信美国和美元仍然非常强势，因为世界上大多数人仍在使用美元购买商品，美国依旧控制着清算体系。\n如果发生资本战争，就能切断人们的资金流。但从长远来看，受此掣肘的人们终将找到替代品，从而削减美国及美元的影响力。”\n“历史表明一个国家的储备货币实力和金融实力滞后于其他方面的实力，现在看来，天命在呼唤中国对人民币进行国际化并发展金融中心。我相信现在正是时候，随着中国资本市场的开放，资金流会大举涌入，因为中国的基本面情况十分强劲。”\n“美国最富有的0.1%人口的财富，与底部90%人口的财富总和几乎相等……共和党偏右倾、民主党偏左倾的幅度达到自1900年以来的最高水平，两党之间的分歧也达到自1900年以来的峰值。”\n\n以上是桥水基金创始人雷·达里奥10月24日在第二届外滩金融峰会以及此前接受CNBC采访时分享的精彩观点。\n达里奥首先感谢了主办方的邀请，并表示如今美国人能够与中国人开诚布公地讨论金融市场发展弥足珍贵。\n达里奥第一次来中国时刚刚改革开放，他见证了中国资本市场从无到有的发展历程，也在其中做出了“一点微小的贡献”。\n谈起此次峰会的议题，他认为“世界秩序变局中的金融合作与竞争”更适合作为当今的议题，因为中美博弈的大背景下，各领域的国际合作都面临挑战，这其中当然也包括金融领域。\n随后他详细阐述了疫情之下国际局势中的三股推动力——\n货币和信贷周期；\n政政治和财富鸿沟；\n以及崛起中的大国与现有大国的博弈。\n他认为，美国及美元的影响力短期内依旧不可撼动，但是长期来看它的地位正受到人民币的削弱，就像历史上每次世界强权的更替一样。\n而且历史证明，储备货币和金融实力的显现会滞后于其他方面的实力，因此在中国金融市场愈发开放的背景下，达里奥十分看好中国。\n此前达里奥接受CNBC采访时，也曾指出，几乎所有人都低估了中国，他还表示，现在全球投资者都要开始接触中国资本市场，找到适合自己的投资组合，并适当进行一些人民币的储备。\n以下是经聪明投资者校对整理过的演讲全文、及访谈内容——\n今天美国人与中国人坦诚地讨论金融市场意义重大\n当前情况中存在三大推动力\n我很高兴能够参加上海外滩金融峰会，这样的讨论对我颇具意义。借此机会，我想与大家分享自己的一些观点。\n我1984年首次来到中国，当时还没有金融市场可言。五年后，我有幸与一个七人小组合作，他们由一群聪明又爱国的中国人组成，其使命是将股票市场引入中国。\n小组当时也没有什么金融资源可言，但他们建立了位于上海的证券交易所。从那时起，我一直在观察金融市场的发展以及中国人应对金融市场的方法，同时也做出了一点微小的贡献，这让我很高兴。\n身为美国人，我仍可以与中国朋友开诚布公地讨论有关金融市场的发展，这是弥足珍贵的。\n本次会议的主题是“世界秩序变局中的金融合作与改革”，这听起来波澜不惊，但其实极具争议，因为不断变化的世界秩序让合作变得更少了。\n当前我们面对的最重要的议题之一是，随着世界秩序的变化，中美之间还将存在多大规模的合作？如果大家能告诉我中美合作的未来走向，那我就可以更加肯定地回答你们提出的问题。\n在我看来，“世界秩序变局中的金融合作与竞争”可能适合作为本次大会的议题。\n我将从三大关键推动力入手，解析我们所处的疫情的影响以及政府的相关应对行动。这三大动力是：\n1.长期债务和货币周期；\n2.内部财富和政治鸿沟的周期循环，人们对此一直争论不休；\n3.崛起中的大国（中国）将挑战现有的世界强国（美国）。\n对于各位的问题，我会尽力直接回答。我的观点是有争议性的，虽然我不能保证我的观点一定准确，但可以确保这些观点确实是我的真实想法。\n有人愿意持有负收益率的美债很不可思议\n之所以发生仅仅是因为美元仍是储备货币\n关于长期的货币和信贷周期，我的观点源自对近500年来的储备货币帝国的研究。\n首先是荷兰帝国和荷兰盾，其地位后来被大英帝国和英镑所取代，之后又被美帝国和美元取代，未来中国和人民币会逐渐取代美国及美元的地位。\n在我看来，我们经历的世界秩序变化与过去所发生过的变化异曲同工。\n上一次世界秩序的重大变化发生在1945年，当时美国作为二战的赢家，无疑是世界上最富有、最强大的国家。凭借着这一地位，美元成为世界主流的储备货币。\n由于美元是世界主要储备货币，因此包括中国人在内的非美国人自然都希望储蓄美元，这赋予了美国借入美元为其进行债务融资的巨大特权。\n美国最初是通过可转换为黄金的纸币美元来实现这一点，因此美元就像支票簿中的支票一样，没有任何内在价值，而黄金储备就相当于银行里的钱。\n在随后的数十年中，美国发行的债务远超其黄金储备，因此在1971年，美国迫不得已，违反了以黄金付款的义务。\n随后美元出现贬值，世界陷入以美元计价的法币制，之后的十年间，出现了一股通货膨胀浪潮，债务持续飙升，直到2008年美联储将利率降至0%，并且已无力再通过降低利率来刺激经济。\n长期债务周期，引用来源：桥水基金\n这两张图显示了我所说的周期。值得注意的是，上图中，2008年和1929-1930年间的债务水平都很高。\n在这两个时期，利率均达到0%，如下图中的蓝线所示；而中央银行则大举印制钞票、购买金融资产，如红线所示。\n换句话说，始于2008年的债务增加和大规模债务货币化与1930年代初期相似。\n众所周知，新冠疫情引发的世界经济滑坡，导致美国和其他主要储备货币国家的债务和债务货币化大幅增加，从图中也能看到这一点。\n即使新冠疫情结束，这种情况无疑仍将继续，因为大量财政赤字必须进行货币化。\n因此，美元长期债务周期现在正处在这样一个阶段：存在大量未偿债务；新债务快速增加；美联储为偿债而加速生产货币。\n中央银行可以通过负利率减少偿债成本和债务展期风险，从而可以延长债务周期。\n纵观历史，可以发现宏观的债务周期一直存在，它会促使中央银行进行债务货币化和货币贬值，并从根本上改变作为资本市场支柱的世界信贷体系。\n因为债券就是对货币兑现的承诺。因此，一旦货币贬值，债券市场就会受到威胁。\n美国债券就是兑现美元的保证，美联储既有能力也有意愿为此印制美元并购买金融资产（主要是债券）。\n这些金融资产的卖方自然会去购买其他金融资产，例如股票和黄金，从而导致这些资产价格上涨。\n这就是我们现在看到的局面，这也是1933年和1971年及之后十年间出现的局面。\n现在，投资者对这些债券配置的权重过高，其名义收益率为零，实际收益率则为负数，并且还会产生更多的新债务和新资金。\n那么，为什么有人要持有这些债券呢？对我来说这不合理。\n这种情况产生的前提是美元仍作为世界储备货币，同时继续被看做是全球大多数债务和贷款的基础——但这样风险是很大的。\n别误会——我相信美国和美元仍然非常强势，因为世界上大多数人仍在使用美元购买商品，美国依旧控制着清算体系，如果发生资本战争，就能切断人们的资金流。\n这在短期内影响力最强，尤其是存在大量美元计价债务的时期。\n但是，从长远来看，受此掣肘的人们终将找到替代品，从而削减美国及美元的影响力。\n美国最富有的0.1%的人与后90%的财富总和几乎相等\n共和党向右，民主党向左——两党分歧空前激化\n我要说的第二大动力是财富和政治鸿沟。\n资本主义作为一个高效创造财富的体系，自然会产生巨大的财富鸿沟。在这个人的价值日益被技术取代的全球化时代尤为如此。\n人力价值相对昂贵的美国人必须与更具成本效益的非美国人竞争。\n自1930年代以来最大的财富和政治鸿沟，引用来源：桥水基金\n这些力量造成了美国现在出现的财富和政治鸿沟，如这两张图所示：\n左图表明美国最富有的0.1%人口的财富，与底部90%人口的财富总和几乎相等；\n右图显示，共和党偏右倾、民主党偏左倾的幅度达到自1900年以来的最高水平，两党之间的分歧也达到自1900年以来的峰值。\n收入和机会上的差距会自我强化。\n以美国的教育为例，赚钱多的人对子女教育的花费自然也会更多。收入最高的40%人群对子女的教育花费大约是收入最低的60%人群的5倍。\n因此，富人比穷人享有更多的机会。\n纵观历史，富人会想方设法获得政治权利，而政客会与富人互利互惠，塑造出更加有利于他们的政治经济系统。\n当情况激化时，这可能引起内战和革命。\n通常，贫富差距大、债务很多，同时经济低迷的时候，往往会冲突不断——这是永恒普适的真理。\n可以看到，这种情况在世界各地发生，只是有程度之别。如今在美国也正在发生，这种冲突会引发重大的结构性变化。\n储备货币和金融实力具有滞后性\n人民币国际化、中国建立金融中心将是历史的必然\n至于第三大动力是崛起的大国将挑战世界领先强国。\n我们看到这在历史上屡屡发生。当前，中国是崛起的大国，而美国是现有的世界领先强国。\n1500年起的大国起落，引用来源：桥水基金 （深绿色：英国；黄色：荷兰……灰色区间：主要战争时期）\n这张图显示了自1500年以来各国的实力指数，我将其汇总起来是为了直观地看到我们在这个大周期中所处的位置。\n蓝线是美国，红线是中国。图表说明了一切，但时间有限，我无法一一说明其中含义，但我想阐明其中的主旨：\n历史表明一个国家的储备货币实力和金融实力滞后于其他方面的实力，现在看来，天命在呼唤中国对人民币进行国际化并发展金融中心。\n我相信现在正是时候，随着中国资本市场的开放，现金流会大举涌入，因为中国的基本面情况十分强劲。\n你们曾问我有哪些途径可选。要了解现在要采取的行动，我们需要先了解自己在周期中所处的位置和情况，我们为何处在现在的位置，以及未来有多大的选择范围。\n我们无法跳出自己所处的环境，只能以最优的方式应对它。\n例如，美国和中国的情况各不相同——中美相对各自财政支出的收入水平不同，相对各自负债水平的资产也不同，换句话说：两国的金融状况迥异，发挥生产力的体制机制也大相径庭。\n这就是中美两国的情况产生差异的本质原因，但是，取得成功的基本决定因素始终相同——要拥有强大的资金实力，一个国家必须具有足够的生产力，从而赚取高于支出的收入，构建属于自己的、资大于债的资产负债表。\n要实现这一点最好的方法是，让大多数人口接受良好的教育、举止文明、合作融洽。\n因此，可能的解决方案也始终相同——即要有出色的领导人，可以很好地教育民众，提高民众的文明程度，让人们能够高效工作，并以良好的财务状况开展经营——这些是所有国家都面临的挑战。\n几乎所有人都低估了中国\n低配了中国资产\n一定要接触中国资本市场\n并储备一些人民币\n达里奥：我认为现在几乎所有人都低估了中国，如果你去看看那些跟世界资本化相关的指标，中国都是被低估的（同时也指各国投资者对中国资产的配置权重过低）。\n当然这从某种程度上说也很正常，毕竟各地的投资者都更习惯用储备货币投资和进行储蓄，对中国资本市场的配置自然会比较低。\n但是，现在第一步必须是要分散地布局中国资本市场，换句话说，你需要在中国的各类资产中找到自己的平衡。\n比如我们的投资方法我称之为“全天候”投资，当然你也需要找到适合自己的均衡策略——在不降低预期回报率的情况下不断调整。\n在这之后你可以进行一些与资产定价相关的战术性操作，但首先，一定要去接触中国资本市场，包括储备一些人民币。\n问：你怎么看待印度，它跟中国的差距在哪？\n印度跟中国一样，也有很大的潜力，但我认为印度目前最大的问题是资本市场发展的滞后，流动性缺乏，机制也很不健全。\n印度有很多高科技领域的机会，也有一批具有创业精神的公司，很有意思，但很难让人想去投资。\n但如果印度的资本市场更加成熟、流动性更好、更开放，印度经济会获得新生。\n创业精神和资本化是密不可分的，两者结合可以让资金的融通、循环更有效率，如果印度可以做到这一点，经济将有望复兴，这就是印度问题背后的逻辑。\n但除此之外，我对印度还是乐观的。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":308969649,"gmtCreate":1603841494381,"gmtModify":1703830900408,"author":{"id":"3559603492113086","authorId":"3559603492113086","name":"小韭菜爱收割","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1516e8c4ef9c2fee65b2c218919eea35","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"这些老外是老外吗，我感觉我真的是老外了，没感觉到说的跟感受到的一样。欢迎这些老外移民过来，让他们放弃他们的国籍","listText":"这些老外是老外吗，我感觉我真的是老外了，没感觉到说的跟感受到的一样。欢迎这些老外移民过来，让他们放弃他们的国籍","text":"这些老外是老外吗，我感觉我真的是老外了，没感觉到说的跟感受到的一样。欢迎这些老外移民过来，让他们放弃他们的国籍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308969649","repostId":1148365640,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":2975349,"gmtCreate":1603852631833,"gmtModify":1603852631833,"authorId":3513743822381928,"author":{"id":3513743822381928,"authorId":3513743822381928,"name":"天天天天涨停板","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d3bcdd2c49a8ec314d84d8d0f1b24e","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.48%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":308969649,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"长期混迹这里，看到缺乏监管，忽悠容易挣钱容易吧，高高的举起镰刀，一个字，坏[惊吓]","text":"长期混迹这里，看到缺乏监管，忽悠容易挣钱容易吧，高高的举起镰刀，一个字，坏[惊吓]","html":"长期混迹这里，看到缺乏监管，忽悠容易挣钱容易吧，高高的举起镰刀，一个字，坏[惊吓]"},{"id":2975236,"gmtCreate":1603850365001,"gmtModify":1603851794115,"authorId":3554111452306119,"author":{"id":3554111452306119,"authorId":3554111452306119,"name":"Krlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a03e756ffa7fa33540e6bd4be626fc","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":308969649,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"就喜欢看你们对现状不满 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